[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@paulcerro](/creator/twitter/paulcerro) "Just like last time I think the funniest part of the retail meme stock mania is that they do this to "burn" HFs when in reality they're also helping be the liquidity for the funds that were long and underwater Example Silver Lake with $AMC getting to cash out $700M in 2021 SO many will be caught holding the bag and funds that weren't able to get out because of liquidity will get the volume they need History rhymes"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948016781328634192) 2025-07-23 13:46:07 UTC 10.9K followers, 1234 engagements "The burrito indicator is going off $CMG Traffic down at the biggest rice and beans place because people aren't going there as much"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948114118721802382) 2025-07-23 20:12:54 UTC 10.9K followers, 3477 engagements "I will say if it were X or X lawmakers saying something like when $HIMS ran the SuperBowl ad I'd think it wasn't much. But XX That's not nothing"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948786455435706567) 2025-07-25 16:44:32 UTC 10.9K followers, 2652 engagements "@Treehugger749 Not BofA though. They said in-line to slight beat So far Truist and Citi have both said in-line to below Modeling deferred revenue is hard but I thought Citi this morning approached the math in a thoughtful way tbh accounting for the near full 8p.p. off of previous 15p.p"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948804610405400963) 2025-07-25 17:56:40 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements "@elmaestroinvest Same outcome it just depends on how you got there With Noom and $LLY they agreed to it and then decided to stab them in the back $NVO just assumed that $HIMS would fall in line and even stated that on their earnings call and then found out that $HIMS truly didn't care"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948873134578258286) 2025-07-25 22:28:58 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "Okay trial and error is definitely one but how do you prove #2 To even get data you would have to have gone the long way in order to obtain that the trial and error part. However they launched in May of last year and were doing personalized as early as June. What data could you have possibly gotten in that time to ramp up personalized drugs so quickly. Also you could argue that that "data" can mean it applies for any drug out there. Literally. "inferring" without actually having good info means you're just guessing literally. To infer is to guess. And if you're just making up doses why would"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948822861600215347) 2025-07-25 19:09:12 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements "@Treehugger749 Yea but $HIMS guides each quarter. I guess I'm just not understanding your point well"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948800998425985070) 2025-07-25 17:42:19 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements "It's funny that the OG meme stocks $GME and $AMC are down today lol I obviously understand they aren't heavily shorted anymore but it's just funny nonetheless"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948037029914140741) 2025-07-23 15:06:35 UTC 10.9K followers, 1587 engagements "Remember $REAL benefits from EU luxury goods being tariffed. One of the qualities this company has in the middle of all this trade war nonsense"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1946249746168816022) 2025-07-18 16:44:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 2649 engagements "@ApolloInv @4xiom_ Okay You know $HIMS lobbies too So what makes this any different They all pay politicians. Big deal"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948800702924427671) 2025-07-25 17:41:09 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "Lots of HC names getting taken to the woodshed today on a positive market move except for $TALK for some reason"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1945903498547118379) 2025-07-17 17:48:41 UTC 10.9K followers, 1370 engagements "Nice that Form Health went to Capitol Hill to highlight just how much abuse is happening with GLP-1s in the compounding realm. $HIMS CMPI is going full steam ahead by advocating for X FDA Must Enforce Current Law by ending phony personalization schemes and requiring compounders that act like manufacturers to register as such. X Block Illegal API importsFDA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection must reject shipments from unregistered or unsafe foreign suppliers. X Enforce the X% Rule limiting interstate compounding salesCongressional intent is clear but enforcement is lacking. X Resource the"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948393584769515984) 2025-07-24 14:43:24 UTC 10.9K followers, 6031 engagements "Is there a Kalashi or Polymarket for X. If Ghislaine Maxwell "disappears" or X. If she gets pardoned and testifies Trump isn't on there I'd bet in those markets and I'm not a gambler"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948709859311943771) 2025-07-25 11:40:10 UTC 10.9K followers, 3158 engagements "1 in X Pending Home Sales Fell Through Last Month The Highest June Level on Record"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653960598254060) 2025-07-22 13:44:24 UTC 10.9K followers, 1236 engagements "We all know what happened the last time retail was piling into these types of stocks don't we $GPRO $DNUT"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947996432784564532) 2025-07-23 12:25:16 UTC 10.9K followers, 2914 engagements "Yes it's bad that $CMG is now guiding to flat traffic for FY'25. It's honestly more worrying because of how simple of a concept the model is. While we all know it's not "cheap" anymore if people aren't coming in to buy burritos that's kind of a problem. Can't blame weather"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948119647456243781) 2025-07-23 20:34:52 UTC 10.9K followers, 2086 engagements "Also as of this tweet $CMG is now approaching its April lows FWIW"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948119817581642083) 2025-07-23 20:35:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 1046 engagements "Now this is quite interesting @noom has decided that in lieu of flat out offering compounded GLP-1s like $HIMS they're now advertising for "micro dosing" GLP-1s to get people on them with the lowest dose possible (below) This is just another way to get around the rules. WOW"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948025193600803027) 2025-07-23 14:19:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 5887 engagements "Emphasis on "counterfeit and copycat versions" $HIMS Note from today and $NVO commentary a month ago"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948789451473170938) 2025-07-25 16:56:26 UTC 10.9K followers, 2587 engagements "After a month $HIMS now has XXX ads running for "weight loss" (2x since last month) with XX ads for "GLP-1" and XX for "semaglutide" There will be overlap here between the X but the point is they've doubled their weight loss ads If you actually believe that Andrew was sincere about "only prescribing to a limited number of patients" was genuine his ad count says otherwise. You don't spend so much on marketing to "only prescribe to a limited amount of patients" because the return wouldn't be there for low AOV products which is also proven in the underlying credit card data. Also for someone who"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948464086229901424) 2025-07-24 19:23:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 7014 engagements "That's not how lobbying works dude Lobbying works to target your own self-interests. That inherently means that it goes against anyone who's not in your interests. $HIMS lobbies to push DTC compounding. That inherently isn't in the interests of pharma. So by your definition that's targeting the competition. It's really no different dude idk why you keep trying to make it sound like $HIMS is the picture perfect saint here"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948803094944399411) 2025-07-25 17:50:39 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "I'll give it till lunch that $AEO breaks down. There's not much to squeeze when SI is XX% and the thesis is "Sydney Sweeney" $DNUT is now negative since before yesterday's pop and $GPROis about to join it $OPEN is making a small comeback but I suspect it's also short-lived"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948374883299131590) 2025-07-24 13:29:05 UTC 10.9K followers, 1360 engagements "I love this ad $HIMS It basically says "Doc said I needed to lose weight. Insurance wouldn't cover so I stead of me paying the cash pay price via $NVO like it should be done I went with the ultra cheap option though most likely didn't even need the personalization.""  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947062018852450696) 2025-07-20 22:32:14 UTC 10.9K followers, 7870 engagements "For the market it's good that we're getting definitive tariff rates Bad news is that now we know what the definitive rates are (ex China/EU) Hard to not imagine that modeling out tariff impacts on actuals vs hypotheticals don't affect earnings for Q4 Just look at $GM"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947986555609506196) 2025-07-23 11:46:01 UTC 10.9K followers, 1091 engagements "No one who orders off $AMZN believes this Can attest for myself that things I order regularly have gone up"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947992424728469617) 2025-07-23 12:09:20 UTC 10.9K followers, 2275 engagements "Great in-depth article this morning on $HIMS My contribution"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1945089639619948995) 2025-07-15 11:54:42 UTC 10.9K followers, 10K engagements "Honestly I'm more concerned about Chipotle $CMG"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948116014169985244) 2025-07-23 20:20:26 UTC 10.9K followers, 2257 engagements "So much for the micro dosing I tweeted about a few days ago $HIMS $LLY As I said you DON'T f*ck with Lilly. They're harder than the Danes over at $NVO"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948867999785779438) 2025-07-25 22:08:34 UTC 10.9K followers, 4109 engagements "@j_3093 To give you an example I lied on my intake form and was prescribed a compounded version. It didn't verify anything"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948823097206878497) 2025-07-25 19:10:08 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "@ConsensusGurus Hey man it's 2025 - GAG Speaking of which Amid Epstein furor Ghislaine Maxwell seeks relief from US Supreme Court -"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948717200048636168) 2025-07-25 12:09:20 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "Interesting note out of Citi today for $HIMS They obviously haven't sounded optimistic all year but you got a give them credit for their thought process on "why" If anyone has thoughts on it lmk. FY'25 looks really difficult despite $HIMS aggressive push of GLP-1s recently"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948724240741449978) 2025-07-25 12:37:19 UTC 10.9K followers, 1716 engagements "From Dave's email (also you should subscribe) @ManOnThePen"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948804116748079509) 2025-07-25 17:54:43 UTC 10.9K followers, 1666 engagements "@EdwinVANDERBERG @ManOnThePen I 100x'd it (joking - have to say that)"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948805513220890789) 2025-07-25 18:00:16 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "$LLY from the start made it very clear to anyone that if you compound anything "we're done" Hardball stance $NVO never got that assurance from $HIMS and naively went ahead and then realized $HIMS had no intention of stopping and then pulled their partnership A mistake that partially cost the CEO his job and temporarily validated $HIMS compounding efforts"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948870876742418509) 2025-07-25 22:19:59 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements "Yea when a low cost retailer tells you they won't raise prices they're full of it. There's just no way not to $AMZN How many other industries will raise their prices covertly in the face of looming tariffs"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1947354262905696386) 2025-07-21 17:53:31 UTC 10.9K followers, 1255 engagements "@CapitalFang @ClarkSquareCap @roojoo3 Eagle has made me also want to look at it though I kick myself for not doing it the first time when it was $5/share"  [@paulcerro](/creator/x/paulcerro) on [X](/post/tweet/1948471819712757904) 2025-07-24 19:54:17 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@paulcerro
"Just like last time I think the funniest part of the retail meme stock mania is that they do this to "burn" HFs when in reality they're also helping be the liquidity for the funds that were long and underwater Example Silver Lake with $AMC getting to cash out $700M in 2021 SO many will be caught holding the bag and funds that weren't able to get out because of liquidity will get the volume they need History rhymes"
@paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 13:46:07 UTC 10.9K followers, 1234 engagements
"The burrito indicator is going off $CMG Traffic down at the biggest rice and beans place because people aren't going there as much" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 20:12:54 UTC 10.9K followers, 3477 engagements
"I will say if it were X or X lawmakers saying something like when $HIMS ran the SuperBowl ad I'd think it wasn't much. But XX That's not nothing" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 16:44:32 UTC 10.9K followers, 2652 engagements
"@Treehugger749 Not BofA though. They said in-line to slight beat So far Truist and Citi have both said in-line to below Modeling deferred revenue is hard but I thought Citi this morning approached the math in a thoughtful way tbh accounting for the near full 8p.p. off of previous 15p.p" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 17:56:40 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements
"@elmaestroinvest Same outcome it just depends on how you got there With Noom and $LLY they agreed to it and then decided to stab them in the back $NVO just assumed that $HIMS would fall in line and even stated that on their earnings call and then found out that $HIMS truly didn't care" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 22:28:58 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"Okay trial and error is definitely one but how do you prove #2 To even get data you would have to have gone the long way in order to obtain that the trial and error part. However they launched in May of last year and were doing personalized as early as June. What data could you have possibly gotten in that time to ramp up personalized drugs so quickly. Also you could argue that that "data" can mean it applies for any drug out there. Literally. "inferring" without actually having good info means you're just guessing literally. To infer is to guess. And if you're just making up doses why would" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 19:09:12 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements
"@Treehugger749 Yea but $HIMS guides each quarter. I guess I'm just not understanding your point well" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 17:42:19 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements
"It's funny that the OG meme stocks $GME and $AMC are down today lol I obviously understand they aren't heavily shorted anymore but it's just funny nonetheless" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 15:06:35 UTC 10.9K followers, 1587 engagements
"Remember $REAL benefits from EU luxury goods being tariffed. One of the qualities this company has in the middle of all this trade war nonsense" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-18 16:44:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 2649 engagements
"@ApolloInv @4xiom_ Okay You know $HIMS lobbies too So what makes this any different They all pay politicians. Big deal" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 17:41:09 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"Lots of HC names getting taken to the woodshed today on a positive market move except for $TALK for some reason" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-17 17:48:41 UTC 10.9K followers, 1370 engagements
"Nice that Form Health went to Capitol Hill to highlight just how much abuse is happening with GLP-1s in the compounding realm. $HIMS CMPI is going full steam ahead by advocating for X FDA Must Enforce Current Law by ending phony personalization schemes and requiring compounders that act like manufacturers to register as such. X Block Illegal API importsFDA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection must reject shipments from unregistered or unsafe foreign suppliers. X Enforce the X% Rule limiting interstate compounding salesCongressional intent is clear but enforcement is lacking. X Resource the" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-24 14:43:24 UTC 10.9K followers, 6031 engagements
"Is there a Kalashi or Polymarket for X. If Ghislaine Maxwell "disappears" or X. If she gets pardoned and testifies Trump isn't on there I'd bet in those markets and I'm not a gambler" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 11:40:10 UTC 10.9K followers, 3158 engagements
"1 in X Pending Home Sales Fell Through Last Month The Highest June Level on Record" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-22 13:44:24 UTC 10.9K followers, 1236 engagements
"We all know what happened the last time retail was piling into these types of stocks don't we $GPRO $DNUT" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 12:25:16 UTC 10.9K followers, 2914 engagements
"Yes it's bad that $CMG is now guiding to flat traffic for FY'25. It's honestly more worrying because of how simple of a concept the model is. While we all know it's not "cheap" anymore if people aren't coming in to buy burritos that's kind of a problem. Can't blame weather" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 20:34:52 UTC 10.9K followers, 2086 engagements
"Also as of this tweet $CMG is now approaching its April lows FWIW" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 20:35:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 1046 engagements
"Now this is quite interesting @noom has decided that in lieu of flat out offering compounded GLP-1s like $HIMS they're now advertising for "micro dosing" GLP-1s to get people on them with the lowest dose possible (below) This is just another way to get around the rules. WOW" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 14:19:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 5887 engagements
"Emphasis on "counterfeit and copycat versions" $HIMS Note from today and $NVO commentary a month ago" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 16:56:26 UTC 10.9K followers, 2587 engagements
"After a month $HIMS now has XXX ads running for "weight loss" (2x since last month) with XX ads for "GLP-1" and XX for "semaglutide" There will be overlap here between the X but the point is they've doubled their weight loss ads If you actually believe that Andrew was sincere about "only prescribing to a limited number of patients" was genuine his ad count says otherwise. You don't spend so much on marketing to "only prescribe to a limited amount of patients" because the return wouldn't be there for low AOV products which is also proven in the underlying credit card data. Also for someone who" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-24 19:23:33 UTC 10.9K followers, 7014 engagements
"That's not how lobbying works dude Lobbying works to target your own self-interests. That inherently means that it goes against anyone who's not in your interests. $HIMS lobbies to push DTC compounding. That inherently isn't in the interests of pharma. So by your definition that's targeting the competition. It's really no different dude idk why you keep trying to make it sound like $HIMS is the picture perfect saint here" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 17:50:39 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"I'll give it till lunch that $AEO breaks down. There's not much to squeeze when SI is XX% and the thesis is "Sydney Sweeney" $DNUT is now negative since before yesterday's pop and $GPROis about to join it $OPEN is making a small comeback but I suspect it's also short-lived" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-24 13:29:05 UTC 10.9K followers, 1360 engagements
"I love this ad $HIMS It basically says "Doc said I needed to lose weight. Insurance wouldn't cover so I stead of me paying the cash pay price via $NVO like it should be done I went with the ultra cheap option though most likely didn't even need the personalization."" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-20 22:32:14 UTC 10.9K followers, 7870 engagements
"For the market it's good that we're getting definitive tariff rates Bad news is that now we know what the definitive rates are (ex China/EU) Hard to not imagine that modeling out tariff impacts on actuals vs hypotheticals don't affect earnings for Q4 Just look at $GM" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 11:46:01 UTC 10.9K followers, 1091 engagements
"No one who orders off $AMZN believes this Can attest for myself that things I order regularly have gone up" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 12:09:20 UTC 10.9K followers, 2275 engagements
"Great in-depth article this morning on $HIMS My contribution" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-15 11:54:42 UTC 10.9K followers, 10K engagements
"Honestly I'm more concerned about Chipotle $CMG" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-23 20:20:26 UTC 10.9K followers, 2257 engagements
"So much for the micro dosing I tweeted about a few days ago $HIMS $LLY As I said you DON'T f*ck with Lilly. They're harder than the Danes over at $NVO" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 22:08:34 UTC 10.9K followers, 4109 engagements
"@j_3093 To give you an example I lied on my intake form and was prescribed a compounded version. It didn't verify anything" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 19:10:08 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"@ConsensusGurus Hey man it's 2025 - GAG Speaking of which Amid Epstein furor Ghislaine Maxwell seeks relief from US Supreme Court -" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 12:09:20 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"Interesting note out of Citi today for $HIMS They obviously haven't sounded optimistic all year but you got a give them credit for their thought process on "why" If anyone has thoughts on it lmk. FY'25 looks really difficult despite $HIMS aggressive push of GLP-1s recently" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 12:37:19 UTC 10.9K followers, 1716 engagements
"From Dave's email (also you should subscribe) @ManOnThePen" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 17:54:43 UTC 10.9K followers, 1666 engagements
"@EdwinVANDERBERG @ManOnThePen I 100x'd it (joking - have to say that)" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 18:00:16 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"$LLY from the start made it very clear to anyone that if you compound anything "we're done" Hardball stance $NVO never got that assurance from $HIMS and naively went ahead and then realized $HIMS had no intention of stopping and then pulled their partnership A mistake that partially cost the CEO his job and temporarily validated $HIMS compounding efforts" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-25 22:19:59 UTC 10.9K followers, XXX engagements
"Yea when a low cost retailer tells you they won't raise prices they're full of it. There's just no way not to $AMZN How many other industries will raise their prices covertly in the face of looming tariffs" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-21 17:53:31 UTC 10.9K followers, 1255 engagements
"@CapitalFang @ClarkSquareCap @roojoo3 Eagle has made me also want to look at it though I kick myself for not doing it the first time when it was $5/share" @paulcerro on X 2025-07-24 19:54:17 UTC 10.9K followers, XX engagements