[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/twitter/JeffSnider_EDU)
"Something just broke in the auto industry and its not just about cars. CarMax reported a $XXX million sales miss Parts suppliers like Bosch are slashing thousands of jobs and First Brands just filed for bankruptcy after relying too heavily on off-balance-sheet financing. This isnt an isolated story. Its the canary in the coal mine for the broader economy. Falling sales deflationary pressure and financing unraveling behind the scenes are all flashing red. In my new video I explain why this downturn is far bigger than autos and why it matters for interest rates jobs and the entire financial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1972803628000854278) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-09-29T23:20Z 132.7K followers, 51.8K engagements


"ISM's services activity index dropped to contraction for the 🚨first time since May 2020.🚨 It helped the Services PMI drop back to exactly fifty. That doesn't sound that bad but that's solidly in recession territory (again) - anything under XX is big trouble. Employment is contracting at a solid pace (echoing all the labor data). And services are trying their best to create "tariff inflation" but the reason they can't is in the first paragraph above - raise prices Americans can't afford it they stop showing up and volume falls off. It's a lose-lose economy which perfectly explains why the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1974922539144028240) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-05T19:40Z 132.7K followers, 15.9K engagements


"Gold hit $4k and it has *zero* to do with inflation and *nothing* about the govt shutdown. This one is an open and shut case. Set aside for a second how historically gold is a terrible inflation hedge just look at how gold has behaved the past few years. X. Gold was sideways and LOWER during the worst CPI "inflation" since the 70s. Why Because that was a period of reflation the only point since the lockdowns when it looked like a recovery was plausible. Once forgot-how-to-grow showed up consumer price changes disappeared and only then did gold start to rise. X. Just this year gold was soaring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1975889410718842962) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-08T11:42Z 132.7K followers, 52.2K engagements


"That's why the entire free market chooses to use neither"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978144079348170890) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-14T17:01Z 132.7K followers, 53.1K engagements


"Most people only hear about the economy once its too late after the data gets revised after jobs vanish after markets have already priced it in. But if you look closely the warning signs have been clear all along: Payroll growth has been steadily decelerating and risks slipping negative. Producer prices show no lasting inflation wave instead theyve been rolling over. Trade margins have echoed patterns we last saw in 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. Even the biggest banks once fixated on inflation are now admitting the economy is weakening. And yet central banks keep reaching for the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978460466264633820) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-15T13:58Z 132.7K followers, 9925 engagements


"You have to wonder if Mr. Dimon knew something was up. Not for nothing JP Morgan was at the center of every big name failure in 2008. Not that it was to blame but it's balance sheet reach is almost unparalleled. He says cockroaches and three days later a few more show up under the light. The thing is Dimon didn't say anything we aren't all already thinking. We know there is a ton of stupid in private credit after spending the last few years reaching hard for yield cutting corners overlooking anything that came up all the while rationalizing it's just fine because Jay Powell said so. It's not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1979146371283251337) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-17T11:24Z 132.8K followers, 35.5K engagements


"Silver's squeeze is being driven by gold which in turn is being driven by the dollar. No not "debasement" or "inflation." Eurodollar deflation. People make the critical mistake believing gold is a substitute for the dollar when it's not even in the same arena. Precious metals instead compete with stocks and other risky financial assets as the safe haven alternative to them. Ledger money separated medium of exchange from store of value XXX years ago (not that you've heard anything about it but you live it every day each time you use your credit card - medium - and check your 401k - store)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1979168014953021443) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-17T12:50Z 132.8K followers, 26K engagements


"As usual central banks tried to take credit for it. That's what they always do try to turn coincident correlation into "evidence" their policies actually work. This time though they got caught. The car business caught them red-handed. The truth is interest rate cuts don't do anything. They are nothing more than a response to weakness and the collapse in auto production in Germany is a perfect example exposing the lie. Autos had fallen off sharply (right after the '23 bank crisis funny enough) into 2024 which along with broad global weakness triggered the Pringles response - central banks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1976619974807691366) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-10T12:05Z 132.8K followers, 9451 engagements


"This was one of those Holy Sh& developments that slid under the radar given Zions/Western/Fed repo. WTI curve went from backwardation to prospective super-contango in days. Not how this usually goes. Like financial curve invert usually back and forth first takes time before the big inversion (contango) sticks. Then again given what happened last week jumping from nothing to a lot in no time actually makes sense. Not only did contango steepen (over $XXXX at one point Friday before closing around $1.20) it has moved forward on the curve all the way to January 2026 with the December 2025 only"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1980047559964909645) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-19T23:05Z 132.8K followers, 28.3K engagements


"Is escalating money market deflation pushing the Fed to the cusp of its next QE There are a number of reasons to think that's the case starting with some very close comparisons to 2019 when repo market problems forced the FOMC to try to deal with them by raising the level of bank reserves. Bank reserves are irrelevant but they are the only too the Fed has other than rate cuts. We see very well how the rate cutting is working out - predictably having zero impact the Fed merely following the market. But now we've got credit issues popping up (Dimon's cockroaches) and genuine Euro$ tightening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1980231269872026053) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-20T11:15Z 132.8K followers, 7071 engagements


"While stock indexes keep soaring some parts of the stock market are sweating recent bankruptcies in subprime credit. Judging by the stocks that are selling off even shareholders know this has a good chance to go way beyond subprime autos. Ally Affirm Bread.Capital One Suddenly markets care about credit quality. After Tricolor blew up spectacularly which everyone tried to blame on fraud. Why was there fraud in the first place Credit quality and worsening economy. First Brands different story highlighting another aspect to late cycle behavior on leverage. Nobody cared while it looked like Jay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1974982433951891705) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-05T23:38Z 132.8K followers, 19.1K engagements


"Pringles remains undefeated. NZ the latest to emphatically lose to the can. Fifty bps rate cut after insisting everything was fine enough to pause just three months ago. What happens every time is that central bank economic models assume rate cuts are "stimulus" when the entire history of the modern world shows they are NOT. So officials are faced with weakness (i.e. NZ '24) they respond to it by lowering policy rates (after markets have already priced both the weakening and the official response) then sit back and wait for lower interest rates to save the economy (which would be the first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1976318991544013126) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-09T16:09Z 132.8K followers, 7143 engagements


"A major central bank panicked into a 50-basis-point rate cut this week completely unplanned yet perfectly predictable to those paying attention. And the scary part Theyve already admitted theyre willing to go even further. This isnt an isolated move. Its the beginning of a global chain reaction that markets have been quietly forecasting for months. Once the first can of Pringles pops every central banker follows because rate cuts dont fix weakness they expose it. While the media calls it support whats really happening is capitulation. Jobs growth currencies everything is starting to bend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1976393001170559487) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-09T21:03Z 132.8K followers, 22.7K engagements


"Everyones watching the new trade war headlines. China restricting exports. The U.S. retaliating. Markets selling off. But whats happening underneath is much more serious. Credit markets are freezing. The dollar is surging. And thats what really moves the global system not tariffs. This Tuesday at X PM Eastern were breaking down: What interest rates are really signaling right now Why this Trade War XXX could trigger a funding crisis And what the bond market is warning before anyone admits it sign up for the live webinar here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1977677190264443050) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-13T10:06Z 132.8K followers, 15.5K engagements


"We see loan delinquencies that are rising through the regulated banking channel. We know that souring loans are accumulating in private credit. Now corporate debt is beginning to display more visible signs of late stage cycle behavior desperate firms grasping for every last dollar trying to stave off insolvency. As the economy "slows" the number who are put in that position goes way up. First Brands is the first one to be put under the microscope. Bad economy + rising costs + overeager risk-taking non-bank lenders = same bubble properties we also see at the end of any cycle. Given all the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978069526047801447) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-14T12:05Z 132.8K followers, 12.6K engagements


"The growing housing bust has now caught the attention of the Fed. If the FOMC is discussing it you know it's getting serious. Mortgage rates have been falling all year (set by the mkt not Jay Powell) yet it hasn't sparked the turnaround everyone in the real estate market was looking for. Whatever any cost savings from lower interest rates is being overwhelmed by macro factors like job fears related to growing job losses. Home prices have been falling all summer and homebuilders have turned decisively negative (even if the Census Bureau says new home sales soared in August in what was a clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978072545606902108) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-14T12:17Z 132.8K followers, 13.1K engagements


"The Fed has a significant number of its voting members complain about inflation last month saying they would have supported doing nothing waiting for "tariff inflation" as if they weren't given a choice. There's always a choice and every last one of them chose rate cut. There will be people well into the 2030s claiming tariff inflation is right around the corner any day now. Those people largely work at the Fed and in the financial media. The FOMC's meeting minutes for September included all the inflation warnings we've come to expect. But it's not what they say it's what they do. Point is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978085128887816414) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-14T13:07Z 132.8K followers, 7234 engagements


"WTH is going on in the auto world First Brands bankruptcy. Canary in the coalmine CarMax. Bosch laying off thousands more. Tricolor fails. Autos are in trouble and that's after the entire industry failed (hard) to even come close to recovering from the pandemic. It was all a price illusion - the actual number of cars being made and sold to this day remains significantly below 2020. And that was just the background before this summer. Now we see CarMax's drop in sales falling car values sink inventory a prime example of payback after so many sales were frontloaded trying to beat tariff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1973423914618593593) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-01T16:25Z 132.8K followers, 26.1K engagements


"We have A LOT to talk about tomorrow. At the very least hopefully everyone will put this idea to rest that gold is soaring on "inflation" and "debasement." It is and always was deflation. Join me 11:30am ET. Tons to discuss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1978997752311824631) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-17T01:33Z 132.8K followers, 12.8K engagements


"What a week: Oil contango silver scarcity Chinese credit contraction shadow bank stress. They may sound like ordinary market buzzwords but together they reveal the architecture of global finance bending under the weight of a deflationary squeeze. In more detail these are different surface manifestations of the same underlying dynamic namely an accelerating shortage of trustworthy collateral and liquidity within a (euro)dollar-based financial system that was designed to expand but now finds itself constrained by its own structure. EDU's One Big Weekly Theme review:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU/status/1980232528058601643) [@JeffSnider_EDU](/creator/x/JeffSnider_EDU) 2025-10-20T11:20Z 132.8K followers, 8747 engagements