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[@ArmchairW](/creator/twitter/ArmchairW)
"People have challenged me on my claim that for every Russian killed in this war ten or more Ukrainians die. Fair enough. Observe. Any identified Ukrainian position faces destruction with overwhelming precision fire. The Russians have to deal with. kill drone harassment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980014124525297681) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-19T20:52Z 133.8K followers, 54.2K engagements


"Y'know the joke about socialism working fine until you run out of other peoples' money to spend Yeah. turns out it's actually about neoliberalism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979376927895920740) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T02:40Z 133.8K followers, 134.5K engagements


"Lockheed and Raytheon plan to replicate this capability in PowerPoint no later than 2028"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980783553521533080) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T23:49Z 133.8K followers, 39K engagements


"Ukraine: We've killed over a million Russian soldiers. Also Ukraine: (a list of XX Russian SF operators KIA) For context this is fewer SF operators than were killed (63) during the first three years of the War on Terror"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980790027631382767) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T00:15Z 133.8K followers, 45.3K engagements


"Few things are quite as amusing as European defense companies signing orders for fighters that will never be manufactured with a country that will never pay for them. We're literally watching a LARP session"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981151517701992918) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-23T00:11Z 133.8K followers, 33.8K engagements


"318 tanks XXX APCs and XXX guns. This is an army and not a particularly small one - in fact it represents a force comparable in size to the present British or French Army. And as RWA points out this isn't a full listing - they're underballing some categories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977435130579816616) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-12T18:04Z 133.8K followers, 31.9K engagements


"Poroshenko's Curse as he screamed in anger - "We will have development and they will live in basements" What the Kievites inflicted upon the people of the Donbass for their effrontery in righteously rebelling against a government run by Nazis is being returned to them tenfold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977454958405353926) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-12T19:22Z 133.8K followers, 21.7K engagements


"This is a regular pattern - almost every time the Ukrainians use HIMARS the now-omnipresent Russian reconnaissance-strike complex spots the launch finds the launcher tracks it to its base and destroys it and kills its crew. This was probably the launcher terrorizing Belgorod"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977743785267192010) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-13T14:30Z 133.8K followers, 106K engagements


"This is actually rather interesting because it allows us to roughly estimate kill drone production volumes. Certainly the Russians produce their own fiber-optic cable and some of this likely goes into infrastructure but we can certainly see how many drones this would support. Now what's important to realize is this likely represents a bulk buy to build a stockpile to support production going forward into the future. With that being said we can see that the Russian Federation has imported approximately 650000 miles of fiber-optic cable from China in 2025 after importing about 200000 miles in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1978246746300961264) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-14T23:49Z 133.8K followers, 83.2K engagements


"Ukrainian deep strike campaign: (long internet argument about whether an additional 2-3% of total oil refinery downtime is attributable to enemy action or sanctions making maintenance more time-consuming) Russian deep strike campaign: Ukraine takes a trip to the 19th century"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1978601658113315008) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-15T23:19Z 133.8K followers, 43.8K engagements


"By now I suspect the US intelligence community outsources most of its actual collection and analysis to brOSINT and unvetted claims by allies. Civilians DIED in Yemen because a brOSINT account speculated about Houthi sites from potato satellite imagery and the USN dropped bombs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1978604535770714119) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-15T23:30Z 133.8K followers, 24.1K engagements


"If this summit actually happens Putin will fly into Hungary and out of Hungary mug for the camera with Trump and Orban and the Europeans will seethe about it. The end of this war will involve a long string of humiliations as Europe is forced to back down again and again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979353345149276332) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T01:06Z 133.8K followers, 18.2K engagements


"Another Patriot turned into confetti. When the Ukrainians drag these systems to the front line they die. When they remain in the rear they die. And they shoot down practically nothing. Patriot joins a long line of prestige Western weapons rendered useless in this war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979567021189738900) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T15:15Z 133.8K followers, 91.3K engagements


"Every time I see stuff like this from Ukraine shills I just roll my eyes. More than ten Ukrainian soldiers die for every Russian they somehow manage to kill. The Russians have no shortage whatsoever of ammunition vehicles or supplies and they are not taking heavy casualties. Also if my math is mathing Twerpetua is admitting that the Russians have "only" taken 300000 personnel KIA - which is probably five times or more than the true amount but for a Ukraine shill in an information environment where claims of millions of Russian dead are routinely bandied about is an extraordinary admission"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979573764313461007) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T15:42Z 133.8K followers, 42.9K engagements


"This deeply misleading video (the vast majority of the clip is prewar imagery as far back as 2004) actually illustrates a key point regarding relative losses in Ukraine. Ukrainian cemetery expansion since 2022 has been gigantic. There has been no comparable Russian construction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979577219921166768) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T15:56Z 133.8K followers, 32K engagements


"Postmodern nihilism is neither based nor redpilled - Game of Thrones is actually drawing from the same poisoned intellectual well as Disney-era Star Wars and other woke media abominations. GRRM was just a somewhat better writer. Past tense because the books won't be finished"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979587116909969711) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T16:35Z 133.8K followers, 17.6K engagements


""We pay for all of that. Shut up. I'd tell you the alternative is learning Russian but I know that you speak it perfectly already.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979623130198147519) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-18T18:58Z 133.8K followers, 17.3K engagements


"How is this even a matter of controversy A Song of Ice and Fire isn't even finished which one would think would be a basic prerequisite to even be included in the conversation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1979757544433143881) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-19T03:52Z 133.8K followers, 17.6K engagements


"Looks like whatever Putin told him on that phone call was pretty damn convincing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980015468065792404) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-19T20:57Z 133.8K followers, 76.3K engagements


"@Logical_TD Small fish in a big pond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980444216544448683) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T01:21Z 133.8K followers, XX engagements


"@hagueinmate Trump Always Chickens Out is a policy heuristic that applies to a lot of topics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980445878281540070) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T01:27Z 133.8K followers, XX engagements


"Don't believe me Watch it yourself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980461858562928673) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T02:31Z 133.8K followers, 6377 engagements


"@quicklime696969 Good question. I'd suspect they get shared around closer to the front line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980468989223690383) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T02:59Z 133.8K followers, 1092 engagements


"These photos of collision damage to the USS Harry S. Truman were taken eight months apart. All those people clamoring for war with China don't seem to realize that when USN ships are lost or damaged - as they will be - they will not be replaced and they will not be repaired"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1975348149251080285) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-06T23:51Z 133.8K followers, 305K engagements


"We've gone from claims of 19500 kidnapped Ukrainian children to XXX identified Ukrainian child war refugees to eight (8) children actually in need of reunification including one sent to family in Russia from Ukraine. Vladimir Putin was indicted by the ICC over this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977452979125928314) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-12T19:15Z 133.8K followers, 332.7K engagements


"While the Ukrainians were promoting fantasy encirclements elsewhere the Russians closed the largest one of the war thus far today - that of the twin cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops kept in position far too long are now "in the kettle." "But AW you say the Russians haven't physically surrounded the cities yet" And they don't have to. The Russians are now physically sitting on every high-speed avenue of approach into the cauldron and the gap between their pincers is narrow enough to be swept by direct fire. The only way in or out of Pokrovsk right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977510240712364039) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-12T23:02Z 133.8K followers, 179.6K engagements


"The Russian plan for this war has been basically since they actually settled on a strategy at the start of 2023 to destroy the AFU very aggressively with fire while maneuvering only when the opportunity presented itself. They bet they could wear out NATO. It was a good bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980016993169289716) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-19T21:03Z 133.8K followers, 19.6K engagements


"The Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed something like XX Russian armored vehicles in this engagement while the video they actually released showed a couple disabled APCs and maybe 1-2 Russian soldiers KIA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980461856398667897) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T02:31Z 133.8K followers, 27.9K engagements


"Wait wait wait. Hol' up. Did some HOSTILE FOREIGN POWER just attack not one but TWO NATO MEMBERS DO YOU KNOW WHAT TIME IT IS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980779084117422487) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T23:31Z 133.8K followers, 111.6K engagements


"NATO tore up military end-user agreements on an industrial scale when they re-exported oceans of Russian and Soviet-export war materiel to Ukraine without the permission of the Russian government. In the modern day these agreements are worth nothing and everyone knows this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980787277279191409) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T00:04Z 133.8K followers, 45.1K engagements


"This is a large industrial zone across the main channel of the Dniper. Quite noteworthy that the Russians targeted the connecting bridges to isolate the area over the summer. With that being said this is a "big if true" report that really requires visual confirmation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980791385671495890) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T00:20Z 133.8K followers, 42.7K engagements


"Allegedly serious people in positions of actual power want us to go to war with Russia over a diplomatic note we were literally nuclear-blackmailed into giving Ukraine in 1994"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980793882846851330) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T00:30Z 133.8K followers, 51.5K engagements


"The Russian Ratchet. Big headlines get all the attention but it's often more important as an analyst to ask yourself what isn't happening. Because the most significant event in Ukraine in 2025 was something that didn't happen. The AFU failed to launch a counteroffensive. It's difficult to overstate just how significant this data point is. To illustrate why let's take a brief overview of the war in light of Ukraine's core strategic war goal thus far - to not only expel Russian forces entirely from Ukraine but also (and this is very real but generally left unstated in polite company) to conquer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980843676646486122) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T03:48Z 133.8K followers, 181.6K engagements


"Less than $50M in profits from The Rise of Skywalker XX% of the gain from The Force Awakens. The Fandom Menace won"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980846424486293867) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T03:59Z 133.8K followers, 20.6K engagements


"Watch absolutely nothing happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981147512552538235) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T23:55Z 133.8K followers, 11.8K engagements


"At this point I don't even like reading Trump announcements that I agree with because everything he says is bullshit. This Administration doesn't have policy it has chaos. And it's clearly packed with midwits too afraid to tell the boss he's not as clever as he thinks he is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981150984643760450) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-23T00:09Z 133.8K followers, 37.5K engagements


"You should apply the Ukrainian heuristic to footage coming out of the Pentagon. If they have something good to show we'll see it in 4K HDR. If they're blowing up fishermen but need something to post with the announcement it'll be shot on a potato. It's never let me down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981534224462336394) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T01:32Z 133.8K followers, 32.5K engagements


"@codysviews Drones have pretty good cameras these days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981535203471577551) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T01:36Z 133.8K followers, 1185 engagements


"You laugh but the targeting heuristic at this point is probably that any multi-engine boat spotted off the coast of South America right now is a presumed drug runner and can be fired upon. There's no intelligence "there" there. The Navy is just shooting up Miami Vice boats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981541750289072366) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T02:02Z 133.8K followers, 14.2K engagements


"Does this button actually do anything Asking for a friend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981145379258454198) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-22T23:47Z 133.8K followers, 35.1K engagements


"AI is astonishingly bad when you ask it to do detail work and it's astonishingly good at telling you exactly what you want to hear. I find it mostly useful for scutwork like data aggregation and low-intensity discussions that you're not expecting anything in particular from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981156227620229300) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-23T00:30Z 133.8K followers, 15.1K engagements


"SIXTEEN THOUSAND likes and counting for an unrelated photo from 2014. Christ I need to get into fake news"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981548761366294733) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T02:30Z 133.8K followers, 6248 engagements


"Like I said earlier whatever Putin told him on that phone call must have been REALLY convincing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980448997811839258) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T01:40Z 133.8K followers, 71.8K engagements


"I'm not sure what's funnier that the Taliban clearly have a more effective air force than the old Afghan government did despite zero tech support or that they're just casually doing deep strikes with it in an age when most air forces are terrified to penetrate enemy airspace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1977252352601071693) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-12T05:57Z 133.8K followers, 105.5K engagements


"Trump is somehow managing to compete with Joe Biden's delusional "THE RUBLE IS RUBBLE" address. almost four years in when factual information on the war and the state of the Russian economy and civil life is readily available to anyone with internet let alone an embassy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1978277483381186593) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-15T01:51Z 133.8K followers, 38.5K engagements


"Ukrainians will make wild claims like these and then post a video of the battle showing eleven different angles of a disabled BTR. Meanwhile the Russians continue advancing with their same ubiquitous mechanized tactics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980463871736623546) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T02:39Z 133.8K followers, 19.7K engagements


"It really can't be emphasized enough that the Ukrainian War should have ended in April 2022 with Ukrainian neutrality an independent LNR and DPR and an extraterritorial Russian highway to Crimea through Zaporozhie and Kherson. It'd be called the Five Week War or something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980024344362500458) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-19T21:32Z 133.8K followers, 121.2K engagements


"An evening thought. So Trump apparently wants to invade Venezuela and overthrow Maduro because destroying state institutions creating a power vacuum and fueling insurgency are (checks notes) known ways to suppress the drug trade. Jesus Christ we've actually learned nothing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1980473691902456229) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-21T03:18Z 133.8K followers, 22.8K engagements


"A piece of backwards-facing analysis on my post from last night: After reading through my summary of the course of the war and the decline of relative Ukrainian combat power compared to Russia something occurred to me. Obviously in 20/20 hindsight the best time for Ukraine to have made peace was in April 2022 when they had a very reasonable deal on offer. But let's assume that it was a rational decision to denounce the peace deal and chance their hand with NATO's blank check - which must have seemed like an astonishingly good offer at the time for the chance of real national aggrandizement at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981199521058017368) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-23T03:22Z 133.8K followers, 54.8K engagements


"Alright AW's policy prescription: X. Actually secure the US-Mexico land border. X. Dramatically increase the size and funding of the Coast Guard. X. Turn the CIA upside down and shake it. But this would require spending some money and embarrassing the CIA so it's a nonstarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981554032696316375) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T02:51Z 133.8K followers, 11.7K engagements


"Also this would require building a policy consensus to create and fund a large "Internal Troops Service" with law enforcement powers - essentially what the DHS was originally imagined as in 2001 - which would be difficult so we get kabuki theater as policy instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/1981558072167264628) [@ArmchairW](/creator/x/ArmchairW) 2025-10-24T03:07Z 133.8K followers, 4969 engagements