[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@antonykh1218](/creator/twitter/antonykh1218) "@JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater @CatholicGOP2016 I havent put too much thought into it yet. Why does $MO need to acquire instead of building another one on their own (if they really need to which i am not sure) It will be EPS dilutive based on 35x multiple. How long does it take for ROIC to cross its WACC"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945272834206335264) 2025-07-16 00:02:39 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 It is outside of Altrias core competence to operate overseas unless they do game changing acquisition or quick fix through JV/licensing. The spin-off of $PM positions $MO as a pure U.S. company which it continued to deliver strong ROIC with better segregation of legal risk"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944900760590016598) 2025-07-14 23:24:10 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@p000dl3 @CatholicGOP2016 Hi Pikabu thanks for following my work. I have limited knowledge about $TPB. But given $MO already owns the On brand and has invested behind its growth I see limited strategic rationale for acquiring another pouch business unless theres differentiating value"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944950156572713250) 2025-07-15 02:40:27 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "$EVO - Evolution's Q2 results confirm my thesis: it's transitioning from a growth darling into a resilient compounding machine. The path to attractive shareholder returns is clear even without heroic growth. My deep-dive on the quarter:"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945774619912499585) 2025-07-17 09:16:34 UTC XXX followers, 7916 engagements "@4Awesometweet That's unfortunate. Diageo doubled its capex in FY22 and significantly increased maturing stock investment which didn't align with customer demand (under investment in Guinness and over investment in spirits). Debra Crew could be a scapegoat as it happened before she became CEO"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946014664670015820) 2025-07-18 01:10:25 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "Just corrected a minor typo in the chart. The blue dot on the left should be labeled "Montego" (owned by Japan Tobacco) instead of "Pall Mall" (owned by BAT)"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1943148027461661120) 2025-07-10 03:19:26 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@lazereater @p000dl3 @CatholicGOP2016 Thanks will do some homework to understand more about these brands"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945086647390916799) 2025-07-15 11:42:49 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Higher credit rating is mainly due to growth in free cashflow allowing rapid deleveraging (net debt / EBITDA). Higher exposure to smokefree also makes future cashflow more sustainable (from credit rating agency perspective). Ability to sell shares may be a bit far fetched"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944983277971919254) 2025-07-15 04:52:04 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "$DEO I published this article in Mar 2025 to analyse why Diageo traded at depressed valuation. Part of my argument was deficiency in Diageos incentive plan that didnt penalise management for excessive capex and working capital investment"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945666908088676396) 2025-07-17 02:08:34 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Yes exactly. They are on the other side of the table when helping KT&G to market their heated tobacco brand Lil outside of Korea. I am skeptical of any form of partnership between tobacco firms (also for other industries) unless theres very strong alignment of interest"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946819933851234533) 2025-07-20 06:30:17 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 This reminded me of your comments earlier. FDAs authorisation of JUUL products could change the landscape"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946036725073223701) 2025-07-18 02:38:05 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Yes I believe so. $PM always allocate resources to the right area to drive profitability and return on investment. If their profit and ROIC is threatened they would take step to preempt it or at least mitigate it"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944905995660222908) 2025-07-14 23:44:58 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "3/4 The real concern no one is discussing: In Japan its most critical market IQOS HTU market share saw its first sequential decline since 2021.This is far more significant to the global thesis than ZYN inventory phasing. Why did this happen"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1947905300452999272) 2025-07-23 06:23:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater Another consideration is for scaling of $TPB products to what extent does it cannibalise existing portfolio of $MO if they get additional x dollar of revenue from $TPB but gives away x dollar of revenue from existing business with higher margin then the math doesn't work"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945720455182406029) 2025-07-17 05:41:20 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 U.S. cigarette price is still the most affordable globally perhaps only second to Japan when comparing cigarette price to disposable income. It has a long way to go before reaching the price level of cigarette in Europe on relative basis"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944907975812112784) 2025-07-14 23:52:50 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Not sure shall be worth more than $1bn I guess $MO acquired NJOY for $2.7bn mostly for the PMTA authorisation as market share was only mid single digit. But illicit disposable vape has grown rapidly over the past few years so the TAM for pod vaping has declined a lot"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946089525937369352) 2025-07-18 06:07:54 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 There used to be rumour about $JTI and $IMBBY merger but I doubt it would work given anti-trust regulation globally and also cultural conflict. Requires a lot of spin-off to make this deal happen which may then weaken the strategic merit"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944655123528999326) 2025-07-14 07:08:06 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 This is a long article thanks for spending time to read and comment. Yes indeed the dollar-exposure will increase and interestingly USD is depreciating due to tariff OBBB and many other related events. FX is likely to be a tailwind this year"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944767323245862927) 2025-07-14 14:33:56 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "4/4 My latest article on Substack digs into the IQOS market share movement in Japan PMI's premium valuation and the overlooked strengths that show the full picture. For the complete analysis: #PM #PhilipMorris #Investing #stocks"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1947905302596346237) 2025-07-23 06:23:09 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Yes I echo your view. I shared this concern with BAT investor relations earlier. You may use auto translate on youtube to play the video below and jump to 12:00. Theres burnt taste for the first puff"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946581744003809552) 2025-07-19 14:43:48 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@DavidKilli99638 @CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater Yes agreed. I saw similar feedback from Reddit and thanks for @richard_ersted's great coverage"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945860976395632970) 2025-07-17 14:59:43 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater I have seen this report as well. The chart refers to only the U.S. distribution points. The BAT numbers also in line with public disclosure. Globally BAT has far more than 100k distribution outlets for VELO"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945497845701951641) 2025-07-16 14:56:46 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "Ahead of Big Tobacco's quarterly earnings it's time to filter out the noise and focus on what matters. Revisit the power ranking guide for $PM $BTI $MO $IMB and $JAPAY. Read the full in-depth analysis before the numbers drop:"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1943138931710791796) 2025-07-10 02:43:17 UTC XXX followers, 3559 engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 $MO has several strategic options to expand overseas despite the ambiguous status of non-compete with $PM under the original spinoff agreement. But I need to see positive free cash flow to believe overseas expansion is the right strategy"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944764291787509985) 2025-07-14 14:21:53 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 Yes indeed. Tobacco insider published a short note to summarise this. "You only have to do a few things right in your life""  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946767918588690444) 2025-07-20 03:03:35 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 @richard_ersted @TobaccoMistro As far as I know there's a company making profit consistently from cannabis vaping in the U.S. which is Smoore International For reputation reason they name the category as "components for special purpose atomization products""  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946022984843661612) 2025-07-18 01:43:29 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 As to why they took impairment charge and amortisation of intangible I look at the outcome. Adjusted pre-tax income of RAI during 22-24 was $8.0bn $XXX $8.1bn. Provision for income tax was $1.92bn $0.41bn $1.65bn"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944651084489978300) 2025-07-14 06:52:03 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 @russellgates_ NJOY has a better chance to survive in the long term as its products received PMTA marketing granted order from FDA and less legacy issues. NJOYs supplier is also Smoore International which I actively cover on Substack"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1944903245899686102) 2025-07-14 23:34:03 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements "@CatholicGOP2016 I have also shared this concern with Smoore International investor relations team. Smoore is the Chinese R&D partner earning royalty fee from Glo Hilo"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1946582331860586576) 2025-07-19 14:46:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "1/4 Philip Morris $PM stock fell XXX% despite a stellar Q2 with XX% adj. EPS growth and raised guidance.The market panicked about ZYN but it focused on the wrong metric and completely missed the elephant in the my breakdown of what really happened. 🧵👇"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1947905295977746601) 2025-07-23 06:23:07 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements "$DEO I published a note on Substack last month highlighting Nik Jhangiani CFO of Diageo. He addressed the key problems of the company and pinpointed reasons why the management made questionable decisions. He now replaces Debra Crew to act as interim CEO"  [@antonykh1218](/creator/x/antonykh1218) on [X](/post/tweet/1945631240121712656) 2025-07-16 23:46:50 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@antonykh1218
"@JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater @CatholicGOP2016 I havent put too much thought into it yet. Why does $MO need to acquire instead of building another one on their own (if they really need to which i am not sure) It will be EPS dilutive based on 35x multiple. How long does it take for ROIC to cross its WACC"
@antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-16 00:02:39 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 It is outside of Altrias core competence to operate overseas unless they do game changing acquisition or quick fix through JV/licensing. The spin-off of $PM positions $MO as a pure U.S. company which it continued to deliver strong ROIC with better segregation of legal risk" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 23:24:10 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@p000dl3 @CatholicGOP2016 Hi Pikabu thanks for following my work. I have limited knowledge about $TPB. But given $MO already owns the On brand and has invested behind its growth I see limited strategic rationale for acquiring another pouch business unless theres differentiating value" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-15 02:40:27 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$EVO - Evolution's Q2 results confirm my thesis: it's transitioning from a growth darling into a resilient compounding machine. The path to attractive shareholder returns is clear even without heroic growth. My deep-dive on the quarter:" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-17 09:16:34 UTC XXX followers, 7916 engagements
"@4Awesometweet That's unfortunate. Diageo doubled its capex in FY22 and significantly increased maturing stock investment which didn't align with customer demand (under investment in Guinness and over investment in spirits). Debra Crew could be a scapegoat as it happened before she became CEO" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-18 01:10:25 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"Just corrected a minor typo in the chart. The blue dot on the left should be labeled "Montego" (owned by Japan Tobacco) instead of "Pall Mall" (owned by BAT)" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-10 03:19:26 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@lazereater @p000dl3 @CatholicGOP2016 Thanks will do some homework to understand more about these brands" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-15 11:42:49 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Higher credit rating is mainly due to growth in free cashflow allowing rapid deleveraging (net debt / EBITDA). Higher exposure to smokefree also makes future cashflow more sustainable (from credit rating agency perspective). Ability to sell shares may be a bit far fetched" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-15 04:52:04 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"$DEO I published this article in Mar 2025 to analyse why Diageo traded at depressed valuation. Part of my argument was deficiency in Diageos incentive plan that didnt penalise management for excessive capex and working capital investment" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-17 02:08:34 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Yes exactly. They are on the other side of the table when helping KT&G to market their heated tobacco brand Lil outside of Korea. I am skeptical of any form of partnership between tobacco firms (also for other industries) unless theres very strong alignment of interest" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-20 06:30:17 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 This reminded me of your comments earlier. FDAs authorisation of JUUL products could change the landscape" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-18 02:38:05 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Yes I believe so. $PM always allocate resources to the right area to drive profitability and return on investment. If their profit and ROIC is threatened they would take step to preempt it or at least mitigate it" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 23:44:58 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"3/4 The real concern no one is discussing: In Japan its most critical market IQOS HTU market share saw its first sequential decline since 2021.This is far more significant to the global thesis than ZYN inventory phasing. Why did this happen" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-23 06:23:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater Another consideration is for scaling of $TPB products to what extent does it cannibalise existing portfolio of $MO if they get additional x dollar of revenue from $TPB but gives away x dollar of revenue from existing business with higher margin then the math doesn't work" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-17 05:41:20 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 U.S. cigarette price is still the most affordable globally perhaps only second to Japan when comparing cigarette price to disposable income. It has a long way to go before reaching the price level of cigarette in Europe on relative basis" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 23:52:50 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Not sure shall be worth more than $1bn I guess $MO acquired NJOY for $2.7bn mostly for the PMTA authorisation as market share was only mid single digit. But illicit disposable vape has grown rapidly over the past few years so the TAM for pod vaping has declined a lot" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-18 06:07:54 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 There used to be rumour about $JTI and $IMBBY merger but I doubt it would work given anti-trust regulation globally and also cultural conflict. Requires a lot of spin-off to make this deal happen which may then weaken the strategic merit" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 07:08:06 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 This is a long article thanks for spending time to read and comment. Yes indeed the dollar-exposure will increase and interestingly USD is depreciating due to tariff OBBB and many other related events. FX is likely to be a tailwind this year" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 14:33:56 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"4/4 My latest article on Substack digs into the IQOS market share movement in Japan PMI's premium valuation and the overlooked strengths that show the full picture. For the complete analysis: #PM #PhilipMorris #Investing #stocks" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-23 06:23:09 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Yes I echo your view. I shared this concern with BAT investor relations earlier. You may use auto translate on youtube to play the video below and jump to 12:00. Theres burnt taste for the first puff" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-19 14:43:48 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@DavidKilli99638 @CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater Yes agreed. I saw similar feedback from Reddit and thanks for @richard_ersted's great coverage" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-17 14:59:43 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @p000dl3 @richard_ersted @lazereater I have seen this report as well. The chart refers to only the U.S. distribution points. The BAT numbers also in line with public disclosure. Globally BAT has far more than 100k distribution outlets for VELO" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-16 14:56:46 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Ahead of Big Tobacco's quarterly earnings it's time to filter out the noise and focus on what matters. Revisit the power ranking guide for $PM $BTI $MO $IMB and $JAPAY. Read the full in-depth analysis before the numbers drop:" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-10 02:43:17 UTC XXX followers, 3559 engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 $MO has several strategic options to expand overseas despite the ambiguous status of non-compete with $PM under the original spinoff agreement. But I need to see positive free cash flow to believe overseas expansion is the right strategy" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 14:21:53 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 Yes indeed. Tobacco insider published a short note to summarise this. "You only have to do a few things right in your life"" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-20 03:03:35 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 @richard_ersted @TobaccoMistro As far as I know there's a company making profit consistently from cannabis vaping in the U.S. which is Smoore International For reputation reason they name the category as "components for special purpose atomization products"" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-18 01:43:29 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 As to why they took impairment charge and amortisation of intangible I look at the outcome. Adjusted pre-tax income of RAI during 22-24 was $8.0bn $XXX $8.1bn. Provision for income tax was $1.92bn $0.41bn $1.65bn" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 06:52:03 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 @russellgates_ NJOY has a better chance to survive in the long term as its products received PMTA marketing granted order from FDA and less legacy issues. NJOYs supplier is also Smoore International which I actively cover on Substack" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-14 23:34:03 UTC XXX followers, XX engagements
"@CatholicGOP2016 I have also shared this concern with Smoore International investor relations team. Smoore is the Chinese R&D partner earning royalty fee from Glo Hilo" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-19 14:46:08 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"1/4 Philip Morris $PM stock fell XXX% despite a stellar Q2 with XX% adj. EPS growth and raised guidance.The market panicked about ZYN but it focused on the wrong metric and completely missed the elephant in the my breakdown of what really happened. 🧵👇" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-23 06:23:07 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$DEO I published a note on Substack last month highlighting Nik Jhangiani CFO of Diageo. He addressed the key problems of the company and pinpointed reasons why the management made questionable decisions. He now replaces Debra Crew to act as interim CEO" @antonykh1218 on X 2025-07-16 23:46:50 UTC XXX followers, XXX engagements