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[@HaydenCapital](/creator/twitter/HaydenCapital)
"The most obvious sign that Timee's $215A reached a marketplace "tipping point" - Mercari Hallo $4385 exiting the Japanese Spot-Work market. Timee essentially has the Japanese Spot-work market to itself now. ** Despite being better funded and launching with X% take-rates (vs. Timee's 30%) they still couldn't compete. The market was worried about Mercari's 10M registered users last year (causing Timee's stock to drop -50%) but they couldn't activate these users. A bigger bank account doesn't always win. We heard Mercari job fill-rates were XX% while Timee is 85%. That's not sustainable for an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HaydenCapital/status/1978881681479340116) [@HaydenCapital](/creator/x/HaydenCapital) 2025-10-16T17:52Z 38.9K followers, 4387 engagements


"We put out our Q1 2025 letter a few days ago. This quarter we discuss: - Why "Only The End-State Matters" - An update on Shopee Brazil and their overseas expansion $SE - Our internship program and a $WISE memo Letter is on our site here:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HaydenCapital/status/1929938914724459010) [@HaydenCapital](/creator/x/HaydenCapital) 2025-06-03T16:31Z 38.9K followers, 32.6K engagements


"Forrest's latest memo echoes his recent podcast interview - belief that the AI platform-shift has created a window of opportunity. For Sea Ltd $SE to be a $1TN company if they play their cards right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HaydenCapital/status/1980691729381748770) [@HaydenCapital](/creator/x/HaydenCapital) 2025-10-21T17:44Z 38.9K followers, 12.2K engagements


"Over the years I've been asking other fund managers what they think the average annual redemption % in a fund is. For L/S and Long-only I've anecdotally heard 15%. But I just learned that SS&C tracks a "forward redemption indicator" (tracks XX% of industry AUM) and they estimate 20-25% per year or X% per month. It's much higher than I thought (Albeit depends on strategy). That's a very "leaky" bucket if correct. Probably only interesting for industry nerds / those interested in how the *business* of investing works. But wish I knew this data existed earlier. Any other good sources out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HaydenCapital/status/1981123873040199944) [@HaydenCapital](/creator/x/HaydenCapital) 2025-10-22T22:21Z 38.9K followers, 13.2K engagements


"They struggled to make money from it as their job fill-rates were XX% vs Timee's 85%. Fill-rate is the most important KPI for a two-sided marketplace like this. $215A.T $4385.T Logically there's no reason for smaller players to exist if there's already a large incumbent (Timee). It's not as simple as getting users - you need density of jobs across both time and location. These are minimum wage jobs so jobs need to be within say a 10min walk and also you need a job available at 2pm on Tuesday when that worker is free. Mercari Hallo actually had a lot of registered users (10M) vs Timee's (12M)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HaydenCapital/status/1981420111895679053) [@HaydenCapital](/creator/x/HaydenCapital) 2025-10-23T17:59Z 38.9K followers, XXX engagements