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[@lordbartonjr](/creator/twitter/lordbartonjr)
"Historically there have been a few instances where we saw 40-60% turnout in the general (1.5-1.9mm total votes cast). In each of those elections there was a strong republican candidate (@MikeBloomberg / @RudyGiuliani)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lordbartonjr/status/1983562250842411014) [@lordbartonjr](/creator/x/lordbartonjr) 2025-10-29T15:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@Polymarket / @Kalshi are telling you the odds Cuomo wins the election are 12-15%. This feels mispriced to me 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lordbartonjr/status/1983562237030596967) [@lordbartonjr](/creator/x/lordbartonjr) 2025-10-29T15:51Z XXX followers, 1734 engagements


"So given this context if this election is trending to be 2.5mm votes who are these new 1.4mm voters My read is they are likely republicans coming out to vote for Cuomo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lordbartonjr/status/1983562252633399677) [@lordbartonjr](/creator/x/lordbartonjr) 2025-10-29T15:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Cuomo lost the primary by 130k votes. My guess is the net new 1.4mm voters in the general heavily skew Cuomo. If right this will result in Cuomo winning the election. The betting odds simply dont make sense to me here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lordbartonjr/status/1983562254416249266) [@lordbartonjr](/creator/x/lordbartonjr) 2025-10-29T15:51Z XXX followers, XXX engagements