[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/twitter/FootnotesGuy) "And yes. Late in December is consistent with waiting for this announcement a $17million cash hand-out from taxpayers for the battery that makes the 'baseload' offtake to BHP seem kinda more feasible. 9/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497276991279318) 2025-07-22 03:21:48 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 And I'm also curious about how/why Giles bit back so hard about these different sub-stages and accused me for not getting around the basic facts. In @renew_economy in October 2022 Sophie Vorath reported the ACT tender underwrote all 412MW. ie both sub-stages. 25/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948280161906110780) 2025-07-24 07:12:42 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "That's weird because that's when it was mean to be operational. Including the battery. Could there be a mistake in the financial close 4/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947570983109595548) 2025-07-22 08:14:41 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Anyway in a minor epilogue it looks like GPG got their very small battery that they were "required" to build (having never built one before) finished comfortably on time for the full expensing. If that applies. 29/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948284634019528713) 2025-07-24 07:30:28 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "But it doesn't fit at all with what happened with Neoen's Goyder Stage 1a bid which came in at an even lower price. They wanted to build 5X then 10X that amount. Why "emerging market opportunities" Okkkkkk. 17/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947571018664427830) 2025-07-22 08:14:49 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@CEFCAus @GilesParkinson That would be the good version. Where ACT taxpayers capture full the value of the commercial opportunity conferred onto GPG. (And Neoen.) That would be a subsidy. If anyone else received any benefits from conferring those rights well that would probably be corruption. 31/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947582355692261773) 2025-07-22 08:59:52 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@CEFCAus But the ACT government is NOT paying them to build the battery. Here's the legislative instrument that pays them for the 100MW of wind at Berrybank X. There's that $55/MWh feed-in rate. Zero mention of battery. 26/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947575612354543653) 2025-07-22 08:33:04 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Do they think that some proponents will have incompetent lawyers and not notice Insane. Again. because he's still hiding Simon's mate is a snake and a coward. How dare he give SHaC an official "cleared" statement to bandy it on LinkedIn but obfuscate in officialdom. 16/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764304378339639) 2025-07-17 08:35:35 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Here's the official Victorian government website confirming it and a media release from the Victorian Premier bragging about it too. The "reverse auction was the largest auction ever held". 7/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142368534352318) 2025-07-21 03:51:31 UTC 1411 followers, 1231 engagements "@CEFCAus Meanwhile GPG a subsidiary of Naturgy had never built a battery anywhere in the world. Ever. As Renew Economy proudly boasts in this headline. Isn't there anything odd about a company with no battery pedigree being chosen to build a battery 24/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947573421501788669) 2025-07-22 08:24:22 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy It also looks like GPG finished the ENTIRE Berrybank X wind farm in time for the full expsensing thing. June 2023. Perfect They managed to move MUCH faster building wind than Neoen. They were awarded the ACT takeoff at same time in Sept 2022. 30/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948285838498189379) 2025-07-24 07:35:15 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements ""No you're wrong because my friend in high public office assured me in private that I'm right." This is the "SHaC excuse" for ignoring uncomfortable facts. Last week @simonahac tried it on @EnergyWrapAU who patiently and exquisitely dismantled Simon from public sources. 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945410154129973402) 2025-07-16 09:08:19 UTC 1412 followers, 34.3K engagements "So it's unsurprising that Neoen volunteers at no cost to avail themselves of that opportunity and build a 50MW battery. And now the full expensing window October 2020 to June 2023 explains why the double that again to 10X the 'requirement'. 16/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276465088483376) 2025-07-24 06:58:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Chris Bowen will make the final decision. That gives every wind and solar proponent both a strong argument and powerful incentive to persuade Chris Bowen himself to underwrite their project like those before. 21/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764317565268138) 2025-07-17 08:35:38 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "To market it as "baseload" they need the battery. Alongside $100million CEFC finance the BESS has an outright grant of $17million from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency @arenagovau. That's a subsidy. That can help cross-subsidise power for the ACT government. 4/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142357180354828) 2025-07-21 03:51:28 UTC 1412 followers, 1195 engagements "If you do something early in your career which a few years later looks really really dumb I think it's best to acknowledge the blunder and be proactive in pointing out how others can avoid doing the same. Or. you could do this 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1944988689999769820) 2025-07-15 05:13:34 UTC 1412 followers, 10.6K engagements "For the sake of story-telling let's now consider whether Stage 1A may have benefited from subsidies for Stage 1B. The Media release for financial close on Stage 1A boasts about 1B and says construction is underway on both. 7/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497271815508102) 2025-07-22 03:21:47 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@thehighIQbeast Thanks for this. I think theres merit in exploring what else might he happening under the table. As my analysis pointed out the subsidy is just too large for that amount of hydrogen. I found that interview I think"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945254669745332412) 2025-07-15 22:50:29 UTC 1410 followers, XX engagements "Plus the shared balance of plant. Plus the LGC's in Flow Power's offtake. Plus the bragging about BHP's offtake which had just got a $17million ARENA grant to enable the battery and would get CEFC to lead finance for over $100m. 8/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276443366195431) 2025-07-24 06:57:55 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Last few days Ive noticed this phenomenon among renewabros. They point to some low numbers being paid for wind and solar. And think thats evidence that theyre putting downward pressure on prices. The opposite is true. Weird but true. 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1946438525119021169) 2025-07-19 05:14:42 UTC 1412 followers, 3715 engagements "Look at @GilesParkinson happily reporting on how the commissioning was delayed and how Neoen wasn't too stressed about lost revenue and the damages in the contract would probably be ok. 18/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276471060922847) 2025-07-24 06:58:02 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "And here's a long list of all the "Ancillary Services" that the battery will provide. Traditional spinning thermal generators used to provide all of them for free. So we're creating new markets for all the fancy band-aids the wind-solar system needs. More cross-subsidies. 5/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142361018192214) 2025-07-21 03:51:29 UTC 1407 followers, 1189 engagements "This is $432million for a 50MW hydrogen plant that will displace just XXX% of Oricas natural gas feedstock. Tiny. The ISP currently assumes industry will build 15000MW of hydrogen electrolyses at no cost to taxpayers and just run them when its sunny. Insanity"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1941044772464218491) 2025-07-04 08:01:51 UTC 1412 followers, 6055 engagements "The last gasp of sensible-sounding apologetics is about focusing on "most promising uses". Like. as a feedstock for an existing ammonia production plant. That's Orica. If it doesn't work there it won't work anywhere. And it doesn't work there. 5/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1944988704411361685) 2025-07-15 05:13:37 UTC 1412 followers, 1413 engagements "The timing is important. The media release is X January. But refers to completing financial close "in December". (No date) Presumeably that means very late December hard to get the press release out with everyone on holidays. 8/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497274382430221) 2025-07-22 03:21:47 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Suddenly everything makes sense. Neoen who are expert battery owner-operators saw the opportunity and super-sized it. They struck a fancy virtual-battery deal with AGL. And got the taxpayer (@CEFCAus) to give a cheap loan. 23/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947572705970233614) 2025-07-22 08:21:31 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy And as late as X November 2023 (11 months after financial close of Stage 1A) @GilesParkinson himself is still reporting specifically that the ACT tender underwrote 412MW. Both sub-stages. I don't even think he was aware of the financial engineering. 26/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948282368172675329) 2025-07-24 07:21:28 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Follow-up. @DavidOsmond8 and @GilesParkinson have bitten back on Linkedin mostly. TLDR: "Of course the wind farm had subsidies. but this particular "stage" of said wind farm was financially islated from the rest of the wind farm so those subsidies don't count." 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497256900563438) 2025-07-22 03:21:43 UTC 1412 followers, 7554 engagements "But instead the media release for Stage 1a from the actual company confirms that the construction for the ENTIRE project Stage including BHP's Stage 1b is underway. There couldn't be clearer confirmation that the finances are linked. 14/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497291713286618) 2025-07-22 03:21:51 UTC 1412 followers, 1331 engagements "Giles repeats this argument in the article. "Effectively subsidy free". That's what I'm calling false. The project (substage) also receives revenue from another buyer paying some unknown (higher) price including LGC's. So it's not 'subsidy free'. Even Stage 1A. 6/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497268703306056) 2025-07-22 03:21:46 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Simon is civil and inquires for sources. Ben reads him what the Capacity Investment Scheme says it'll do straight from the label on the tin. "underwrite revenue" which implies paying subsidies regardless of curtailment. Stephen cheekily exults in that. 7/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945410174182977855) 2025-07-16 09:08:24 UTC 1411 followers, 1506 engagements "This thread ended up just focusing on just one of the wind farms in question Goyder South Stage X. Now let's look at Berrybank. Or Berrybank Stage X to be precise and address @GilesParkinson and @DavidOsmond8's critique. There's definitely a subsidy. Or. corruption. 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947570974666461455) 2025-07-22 08:14:39 UTC 1412 followers, 8389 engagements "Im not sure about the Waymo thing. The whole phenomenon of private vehicle ownership is a case study in option-value. Lots of people own cars for options they rarely exercise. Like a camping trip or visit to the now. Im not sure ownership will plummet. But I agree with the conclusion that those assumptions on AEMOs part are definitely still ridiculous"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948147856004804792) 2025-07-23 22:26:58 UTC 1412 followers, XX engagements "These are the lucky 6GW CIS winners in Round X. Their curtailment is underwritten by taxpayers. Barwon Elaine Mokoan. solar farms expecting 30-50% curtailment. underwritten Imagine how pissed you'd be if you were waiting for the next round and missed out 17/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764308056678611) 2025-07-17 08:35:36 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "On Friday I appeared on @SkyNewsAust and commented Orica accepting a $430million subsidy for a 50MW green hydrogen project. I've just started running some numbers. I think it looks far far worse than I thought. 1/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1941762642793857193) 2025-07-06 07:34:24 UTC 1412 followers, 15.4K engagements "Before landing back with a call for political unity behind hydrogen Say. whaaat This is head-in-the-sand stuff. It's not working for really clear immutable fundamental reasons but. keep going anyway 🤯 4/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1944988701836136921) 2025-07-15 05:13:37 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "This change is only clear if you trace your way through all the equations and get confidence in them. As Ben and @DavidOsmond8 have done. But the contracts still explicitly include curtailment in the Force Majeure definition so it's confusing at a glance. 4/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764264314310953) 2025-07-17 08:35:25 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements "The Minister has made @AEMO_Energy the administrator of the CIS so that no Freedom Of Information claim can be made. And they never have to answer to Senate Estimates. The pro-forma can be modified. AEMO's assessment of merit will remain secret. And then. 20/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764315296063704) 2025-07-17 08:35:37 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "So how about that affordable renewable energy That costs more than average prices of power BEFORE you add in transmission storage firming etc Remember this is probably true in Australia but our auctions are all secret"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948263538470051978) 2025-07-24 06:06:39 UTC 1412 followers, 1726 engagements "And here's a Deutsche Bank announcing financial close later in June 2023. Including the battery. How does a project get fully constructed without the finance being squared away 5/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947570986095939838) 2025-07-22 08:14:41 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 If I'm right about "full expensing" thing (welcome feedback to the contrary) then this option to quickly supersize the battery on Transgrid's substation would be worth a bomb. Curious about exactly how that was agreed. Curious is an understatement. 24/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948278478681620575) 2025-07-24 07:06:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "The Goyder project doesn't sell all their power to the ACT government. So they can be cross-subsidised They also sell a chunk to BHP paired with this Blyth battery which they're pitching as "baseload". 🤨 3/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142353988501712) 2025-07-21 03:51:28 UTC 1412 followers, 1227 engagements "Yet another mega thread. It hinges here. A requirement to build a battery was actually bestowing lucrative rights approvals grid access. A kick-back not a cost. I suspect a smart player super-sized the battery and rushed it to collect a massive federal tax offset"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948305983509504315) 2025-07-24 08:55:18 UTC 1412 followers, 1485 engagements "If some combination of rooftop solar batteries and EV charging was to stack up financially anywhere it would be a daytime retail business with giant roofs and sprawling carparks. It still doesn't. So taxpayers help fund it"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1943525214379479290) 2025-07-11 04:18:14 UTC 1412 followers, 5325 engagements "So the essence of David's thesis which Giles quoted is that because ACT got all the LGC's within the same price quoted for energy there's no extra subsidy revenue. That's an "all-inclusive" price including any implicit subsidy. 5/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497265750544684) 2025-07-22 03:21:45 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy There's this weird provision in this legal blog's description of the reverse auction. Whereby after the close of proposals bidders can keep rebidding. until. whoever the ACT decides or gets an offer they like 34/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948295677852983494) 2025-07-24 08:14:21 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@CEFCAus @GilesParkinson The contract would go: "Could we the ACT give you GPG grid access approvals risk-free land for a battery just before the market opens that makes that opportunity transparently lucrative and we have to run a proper auction. and you give us cheap wind in return" 30/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947581207249871268) 2025-07-22 08:55:18 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "First I had missed the two distinct "Stages" of Berrybank which weren't highlighted in any of the reporting on @renew_economy on David's thread the Pemier's media release the government website etc. My bad. 2/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947570976914608234) 2025-07-22 08:14:39 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "The other wind farm is Berrybank. Here is the wind farm's own website proudly exclaiming that they were awarded support under the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme. These schemes are the ultimate subsidy. XX year PPA signed at an unknown price. 6/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142364914712799) 2025-07-21 03:51:30 UTC 1407 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy I think there's a reason why I missed the Stage 1A Stage 1B thing. No-one was really making clear distinctions around the sub-stages in public communications. Probably because they're not really very proud of it. Rather not draw attention. Makes sense. 27/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948283337011040527) 2025-07-24 07:25:19 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "That battery gets another subsidy from the feds along the way. The battery that's been supersized to 10X the 'requirement' of the ACT. 17/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276468007457175) 2025-07-24 06:58:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@CEFCAus This is GPG's media release. The battery is "part of the commitments" and in "partnership with TransGrid" to "support the ACT distribution grid". The world is upside-down. They're not delivering anything to the ACT. The ACT is giving them a hand-out. 27/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947577443927396615) 2025-07-22 08:40:21 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements "But at the end Giles leaves this remarkable note of surprising specificity about the battery requirement. Spelling out the "obligation" on tenderers. 10MW and 20MWh per 100MW of wind. That fits what happened at Berrybank X. 16/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947571015363731790) 2025-07-22 08:14:48 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@DavidOsmond8 But do you have anything in particular on the individual contracts Or do you just assume they always do the same thing in energy deal"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947077410572410891) 2025-07-20 23:33:24 UTC 1405 followers, XX engagements "So if there was a nice air-gap between the close of finance for Stage 1A and the massive deal-making announcements from BHP and the Australian federal government backing Stage 1B I'd take Giles and David financial isolation argument seriously. 13/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947497289003737401) 2025-07-22 03:21:51 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Ohhh the questions. Was Neoen already proposing to supersize the battery How was Transgrid involved in the battery 'requirement' at their substation Was anyone aware of the upcoming 'temporary full expensing' measure being prepared in the upcoming budget 35/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948296633093169477) 2025-07-24 08:18:09 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "In context that could be XX% of what the ACT has committed to for the MWh actually generated from wind. It's not small And with increasing wind/solar decreasing gas/coal every chance the FCAS demand and revenue for supply grows. 22/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947571037060927834) 2025-07-22 08:14:54 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements "Just to give you an idea if you pass the contract to ChatGPT4 it gives you exactly the wrong answer. It still thinks that the revenue would be underwritten. 5/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945764267455807559) 2025-07-17 08:35:26 UTC 1410 followers, XXX engagements "Here's the Clean Energy Finance Corporation @CEFCAus boasting about putting $100million of finance into Stage X of the Goyder South project which is paired with the Blyth Battery. Is that subsidy-free 2/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1947142351601950845) 2025-07-21 03:51:27 UTC 1412 followers, 1475 engagements "@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Becuase in the end it would draw attention to the fact that Neoen had moved quickly to collect and then doubled-dip and supersize a kick-back for a wind project they hadn't even really committed yet to deliver on. 28/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948283997337035248) 2025-07-24 07:27:56 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "Simon bites. He's sure that the energy transition he's defending would never do such a terrible thing. To which Morten Frisch expresses some relief. But Ben and Stephen point out the subsidy schemes in Australia are just getting started and assert CIS will do that. 6/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1945410169564995724) 2025-07-16 09:08:23 UTC 1412 followers, 1577 engagements "So in the deed where ACT grants an offtake there is no Stage 1A and Stage 1B. Just one corporate entity exists. And in the company's announcement of financial close for 209MW they specify that construction is underway for all 412MW. Two distinct projects Giles 🧐 7/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276441176768740) 2025-07-24 06:57:55 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements "As discussed earlier permission to build on a risk-free site with grid access just before this new lucrative market for ancillary battery services opens is opportunity conferred on these parties. Not a cost. 15/"  [@FootnotesGuy](/creator/x/FootnotesGuy) on [X](/post/tweet/1948276463008121026) 2025-07-24 06:58:00 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@FootnotesGuy
"And yes. Late in December is consistent with waiting for this announcement a $17million cash hand-out from taxpayers for the battery that makes the 'baseload' offtake to BHP seem kinda more feasible. 9/"
@FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:48 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 And I'm also curious about how/why Giles bit back so hard about these different sub-stages and accused me for not getting around the basic facts. In @renew_economy in October 2022 Sophie Vorath reported the ACT tender underwrote all 412MW. ie both sub-stages. 25/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:12:42 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"That's weird because that's when it was mean to be operational. Including the battery. Could there be a mistake in the financial close 4/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:41 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Anyway in a minor epilogue it looks like GPG got their very small battery that they were "required" to build (having never built one before) finished comfortably on time for the full expensing. If that applies. 29/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:30:28 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"But it doesn't fit at all with what happened with Neoen's Goyder Stage 1a bid which came in at an even lower price. They wanted to build 5X then 10X that amount. Why "emerging market opportunities" Okkkkkk. 17/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:49 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@CEFCAus @GilesParkinson That would be the good version. Where ACT taxpayers capture full the value of the commercial opportunity conferred onto GPG. (And Neoen.) That would be a subsidy. If anyone else received any benefits from conferring those rights well that would probably be corruption. 31/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:59:52 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@CEFCAus But the ACT government is NOT paying them to build the battery. Here's the legislative instrument that pays them for the 100MW of wind at Berrybank X. There's that $55/MWh feed-in rate. Zero mention of battery. 26/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:33:04 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Do they think that some proponents will have incompetent lawyers and not notice Insane. Again. because he's still hiding Simon's mate is a snake and a coward. How dare he give SHaC an official "cleared" statement to bandy it on LinkedIn but obfuscate in officialdom. 16/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:35 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Here's the official Victorian government website confirming it and a media release from the Victorian Premier bragging about it too. The "reverse auction was the largest auction ever held". 7/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:31 UTC 1411 followers, 1231 engagements
"@CEFCAus Meanwhile GPG a subsidiary of Naturgy had never built a battery anywhere in the world. Ever. As Renew Economy proudly boasts in this headline. Isn't there anything odd about a company with no battery pedigree being chosen to build a battery 24/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:24:22 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy It also looks like GPG finished the ENTIRE Berrybank X wind farm in time for the full expsensing thing. June 2023. Perfect They managed to move MUCH faster building wind than Neoen. They were awarded the ACT takeoff at same time in Sept 2022. 30/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:35:15 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
""No you're wrong because my friend in high public office assured me in private that I'm right." This is the "SHaC excuse" for ignoring uncomfortable facts. Last week @simonahac tried it on @EnergyWrapAU who patiently and exquisitely dismantled Simon from public sources. 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-16 09:08:19 UTC 1412 followers, 34.3K engagements
"So it's unsurprising that Neoen volunteers at no cost to avail themselves of that opportunity and build a 50MW battery. And now the full expensing window October 2020 to June 2023 explains why the double that again to 10X the 'requirement'. 16/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:58:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Chris Bowen will make the final decision. That gives every wind and solar proponent both a strong argument and powerful incentive to persuade Chris Bowen himself to underwrite their project like those before. 21/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:38 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"To market it as "baseload" they need the battery. Alongside $100million CEFC finance the BESS has an outright grant of $17million from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency @arenagovau. That's a subsidy. That can help cross-subsidise power for the ACT government. 4/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:28 UTC 1412 followers, 1195 engagements
"If you do something early in your career which a few years later looks really really dumb I think it's best to acknowledge the blunder and be proactive in pointing out how others can avoid doing the same. Or. you could do this 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-15 05:13:34 UTC 1412 followers, 10.6K engagements
"For the sake of story-telling let's now consider whether Stage 1A may have benefited from subsidies for Stage 1B. The Media release for financial close on Stage 1A boasts about 1B and says construction is underway on both. 7/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:47 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@thehighIQbeast Thanks for this. I think theres merit in exploring what else might he happening under the table. As my analysis pointed out the subsidy is just too large for that amount of hydrogen. I found that interview I think" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-15 22:50:29 UTC 1410 followers, XX engagements
"Plus the shared balance of plant. Plus the LGC's in Flow Power's offtake. Plus the bragging about BHP's offtake which had just got a $17million ARENA grant to enable the battery and would get CEFC to lead finance for over $100m. 8/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:57:55 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Last few days Ive noticed this phenomenon among renewabros. They point to some low numbers being paid for wind and solar. And think thats evidence that theyre putting downward pressure on prices. The opposite is true. Weird but true. 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-19 05:14:42 UTC 1412 followers, 3715 engagements
"Look at @GilesParkinson happily reporting on how the commissioning was delayed and how Neoen wasn't too stressed about lost revenue and the damages in the contract would probably be ok. 18/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:58:02 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"And here's a long list of all the "Ancillary Services" that the battery will provide. Traditional spinning thermal generators used to provide all of them for free. So we're creating new markets for all the fancy band-aids the wind-solar system needs. More cross-subsidies. 5/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:29 UTC 1407 followers, 1189 engagements
"This is $432million for a 50MW hydrogen plant that will displace just XXX% of Oricas natural gas feedstock. Tiny. The ISP currently assumes industry will build 15000MW of hydrogen electrolyses at no cost to taxpayers and just run them when its sunny. Insanity" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-04 08:01:51 UTC 1412 followers, 6055 engagements
"The last gasp of sensible-sounding apologetics is about focusing on "most promising uses". Like. as a feedstock for an existing ammonia production plant. That's Orica. If it doesn't work there it won't work anywhere. And it doesn't work there. 5/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-15 05:13:37 UTC 1412 followers, 1413 engagements
"The timing is important. The media release is X January. But refers to completing financial close "in December". (No date) Presumeably that means very late December hard to get the press release out with everyone on holidays. 8/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:47 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Suddenly everything makes sense. Neoen who are expert battery owner-operators saw the opportunity and super-sized it. They struck a fancy virtual-battery deal with AGL. And got the taxpayer (@CEFCAus) to give a cheap loan. 23/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:21:31 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy And as late as X November 2023 (11 months after financial close of Stage 1A) @GilesParkinson himself is still reporting specifically that the ACT tender underwrote 412MW. Both sub-stages. I don't even think he was aware of the financial engineering. 26/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:21:28 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Follow-up. @DavidOsmond8 and @GilesParkinson have bitten back on Linkedin mostly. TLDR: "Of course the wind farm had subsidies. but this particular "stage" of said wind farm was financially islated from the rest of the wind farm so those subsidies don't count." 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:43 UTC 1412 followers, 7554 engagements
"But instead the media release for Stage 1a from the actual company confirms that the construction for the ENTIRE project Stage including BHP's Stage 1b is underway. There couldn't be clearer confirmation that the finances are linked. 14/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:51 UTC 1412 followers, 1331 engagements
"Giles repeats this argument in the article. "Effectively subsidy free". That's what I'm calling false. The project (substage) also receives revenue from another buyer paying some unknown (higher) price including LGC's. So it's not 'subsidy free'. Even Stage 1A. 6/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:46 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Simon is civil and inquires for sources. Ben reads him what the Capacity Investment Scheme says it'll do straight from the label on the tin. "underwrite revenue" which implies paying subsidies regardless of curtailment. Stephen cheekily exults in that. 7/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-16 09:08:24 UTC 1411 followers, 1506 engagements
"This thread ended up just focusing on just one of the wind farms in question Goyder South Stage X. Now let's look at Berrybank. Or Berrybank Stage X to be precise and address @GilesParkinson and @DavidOsmond8's critique. There's definitely a subsidy. Or. corruption. 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:39 UTC 1412 followers, 8389 engagements
"Im not sure about the Waymo thing. The whole phenomenon of private vehicle ownership is a case study in option-value. Lots of people own cars for options they rarely exercise. Like a camping trip or visit to the now. Im not sure ownership will plummet. But I agree with the conclusion that those assumptions on AEMOs part are definitely still ridiculous" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-23 22:26:58 UTC 1412 followers, XX engagements
"These are the lucky 6GW CIS winners in Round X. Their curtailment is underwritten by taxpayers. Barwon Elaine Mokoan. solar farms expecting 30-50% curtailment. underwritten Imagine how pissed you'd be if you were waiting for the next round and missed out 17/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:36 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"On Friday I appeared on @SkyNewsAust and commented Orica accepting a $430million subsidy for a 50MW green hydrogen project. I've just started running some numbers. I think it looks far far worse than I thought. 1/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-06 07:34:24 UTC 1412 followers, 15.4K engagements
"Before landing back with a call for political unity behind hydrogen Say. whaaat This is head-in-the-sand stuff. It's not working for really clear immutable fundamental reasons but. keep going anyway 🤯 4/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-15 05:13:37 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"This change is only clear if you trace your way through all the equations and get confidence in them. As Ben and @DavidOsmond8 have done. But the contracts still explicitly include curtailment in the Force Majeure definition so it's confusing at a glance. 4/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:25 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements
"The Minister has made @AEMO_Energy the administrator of the CIS so that no Freedom Of Information claim can be made. And they never have to answer to Senate Estimates. The pro-forma can be modified. AEMO's assessment of merit will remain secret. And then. 20/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:37 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"So how about that affordable renewable energy That costs more than average prices of power BEFORE you add in transmission storage firming etc Remember this is probably true in Australia but our auctions are all secret" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:06:39 UTC 1412 followers, 1726 engagements
"And here's a Deutsche Bank announcing financial close later in June 2023. Including the battery. How does a project get fully constructed without the finance being squared away 5/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:41 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 If I'm right about "full expensing" thing (welcome feedback to the contrary) then this option to quickly supersize the battery on Transgrid's substation would be worth a bomb. Curious about exactly how that was agreed. Curious is an understatement. 24/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:06:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"The Goyder project doesn't sell all their power to the ACT government. So they can be cross-subsidised They also sell a chunk to BHP paired with this Blyth battery which they're pitching as "baseload". 🤨 3/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:28 UTC 1412 followers, 1227 engagements
"Yet another mega thread. It hinges here. A requirement to build a battery was actually bestowing lucrative rights approvals grid access. A kick-back not a cost. I suspect a smart player super-sized the battery and rushed it to collect a massive federal tax offset" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 08:55:18 UTC 1412 followers, 1485 engagements
"If some combination of rooftop solar batteries and EV charging was to stack up financially anywhere it would be a daytime retail business with giant roofs and sprawling carparks. It still doesn't. So taxpayers help fund it" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-11 04:18:14 UTC 1412 followers, 5325 engagements
"So the essence of David's thesis which Giles quoted is that because ACT got all the LGC's within the same price quoted for energy there's no extra subsidy revenue. That's an "all-inclusive" price including any implicit subsidy. 5/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:45 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy There's this weird provision in this legal blog's description of the reverse auction. Whereby after the close of proposals bidders can keep rebidding. until. whoever the ACT decides or gets an offer they like 34/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 08:14:21 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@CEFCAus @GilesParkinson The contract would go: "Could we the ACT give you GPG grid access approvals risk-free land for a battery just before the market opens that makes that opportunity transparently lucrative and we have to run a proper auction. and you give us cheap wind in return" 30/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:55:18 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"First I had missed the two distinct "Stages" of Berrybank which weren't highlighted in any of the reporting on @renew_economy on David's thread the Pemier's media release the government website etc. My bad. 2/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:39 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"The other wind farm is Berrybank. Here is the wind farm's own website proudly exclaiming that they were awarded support under the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme. These schemes are the ultimate subsidy. XX year PPA signed at an unknown price. 6/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:30 UTC 1407 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy I think there's a reason why I missed the Stage 1A Stage 1B thing. No-one was really making clear distinctions around the sub-stages in public communications. Probably because they're not really very proud of it. Rather not draw attention. Makes sense. 27/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:25:19 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"That battery gets another subsidy from the feds along the way. The battery that's been supersized to 10X the 'requirement' of the ACT. 17/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:58:01 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@CEFCAus This is GPG's media release. The battery is "part of the commitments" and in "partnership with TransGrid" to "support the ACT distribution grid". The world is upside-down. They're not delivering anything to the ACT. The ACT is giving them a hand-out. 27/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:40:21 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements
"But at the end Giles leaves this remarkable note of surprising specificity about the battery requirement. Spelling out the "obligation" on tenderers. 10MW and 20MWh per 100MW of wind. That fits what happened at Berrybank X. 16/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:48 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@DavidOsmond8 But do you have anything in particular on the individual contracts Or do you just assume they always do the same thing in energy deal" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-20 23:33:24 UTC 1405 followers, XX engagements
"So if there was a nice air-gap between the close of finance for Stage 1A and the massive deal-making announcements from BHP and the Australian federal government backing Stage 1B I'd take Giles and David financial isolation argument seriously. 13/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 03:21:51 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Ohhh the questions. Was Neoen already proposing to supersize the battery How was Transgrid involved in the battery 'requirement' at their substation Was anyone aware of the upcoming 'temporary full expensing' measure being prepared in the upcoming budget 35/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 08:18:09 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"In context that could be XX% of what the ACT has committed to for the MWh actually generated from wind. It's not small And with increasing wind/solar decreasing gas/coal every chance the FCAS demand and revenue for supply grows. 22/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-22 08:14:54 UTC 1411 followers, XXX engagements
"Just to give you an idea if you pass the contract to ChatGPT4 it gives you exactly the wrong answer. It still thinks that the revenue would be underwritten. 5/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-17 08:35:26 UTC 1410 followers, XXX engagements
"Here's the Clean Energy Finance Corporation @CEFCAus boasting about putting $100million of finance into Stage X of the Goyder South project which is paired with the Blyth Battery. Is that subsidy-free 2/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-21 03:51:27 UTC 1412 followers, 1475 engagements
"@GilesParkinson @DavidOsmond8 @renew_economy Becuase in the end it would draw attention to the fact that Neoen had moved quickly to collect and then doubled-dip and supersize a kick-back for a wind project they hadn't even really committed yet to deliver on. 28/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 07:27:56 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"Simon bites. He's sure that the energy transition he's defending would never do such a terrible thing. To which Morten Frisch expresses some relief. But Ben and Stephen point out the subsidy schemes in Australia are just getting started and assert CIS will do that. 6/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-16 09:08:23 UTC 1412 followers, 1577 engagements
"So in the deed where ACT grants an offtake there is no Stage 1A and Stage 1B. Just one corporate entity exists. And in the company's announcement of financial close for 209MW they specify that construction is underway for all 412MW. Two distinct projects Giles 🧐 7/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:57:55 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements
"As discussed earlier permission to build on a risk-free site with grid access just before this new lucrative market for ancillary battery services opens is opportunity conferred on these parties. Not a cost. 15/" @FootnotesGuy on X 2025-07-24 06:58:00 UTC 1412 followers, XXX engagements