[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@paulg](/creator/twitter/paulg) "@elonmusk Interesting point but an example might make it clearer. Can you think of a prominent person who's currently wasting his talents in software when he could be working on manufacturing and heavy industries"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1645107536616357888) 2023-04-09 16:52:56 UTC 2M followers, 1.7M engagements "I was talking to the founder of a very successful startup and he said the best time was in the first few years when they were just a handful of smart people trying to solve hard problems and no one expected anything of them"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1822403663433990503) 2024-08-10 22:44:26 UTC 2M followers, 306.8K engagements "@mmeJen Quite possibly. I'm not saying his work is valuable just that it's not trivially easy"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944424931892064688) 2025-07-13 15:53:24 UTC 2M followers, 30.9K engagements "@mattyglesias In practice it's only possible when all your wealth is due to a single decision. If you have to get multiple 50/50 bets right the chance of winning by luck is 1/2n which approaches zero very rapidly"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944424756867919963) 2025-07-13 15:52:42 UTC 2M followers, 45.5K engagements "@typesfast Medieval Technology and Social Change The Copernican Revolution Life in the English Country House Painting and Experience in Fifteenth Century Italy Anabasis The Quest for El Cid The World We Have Lost"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1930647228869222472) 2025-06-05 15:25:43 UTC 2M followers, 102.2K engagements ""How could it be done to you and your ancestors and you turn around and you do it to someone else""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944526919250092084) 2025-07-13 22:38:39 UTC 2M followers, 323.3K engagements "@brian_armstrong @base What did you do to make it 10x faster"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946138212679782757) 2025-07-18 09:21:22 UTC 2M followers, 62.7K engagements "@traestephens Boston is the intellectual capital. Not just of the US but of the world"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946260043441017297) 2025-07-18 17:25:28 UTC 2M followers, 203.3K engagements "Teenage boys in the UK have spontaneously taken up golf. Not because of a marketing campaign or a charismatic young golfer. They just like it"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946131058358931951) 2025-07-18 08:52:56 UTC 2M followers, 128.4K engagements ""The cases reaching us are of people who collapsed in the streets from lack of nutrition.""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946579938749948236) 2025-07-19 14:36:37 UTC 2M followers, 1.6M engagements "Wokeness will seem such a joke in retrospect that many people won't believe it was ever a serious problem. Even many of the participants will forget. But it really was a big problem"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1932180899879076078) 2025-06-09 20:59:59 UTC 2M followers, 30.8M engagements "Carlson is falling victim to a common phenomenon. He doesn't understand how someone rich or famous got that way so he assumes there is nothing to understand"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944423885052518887) 2025-07-13 15:49:14 UTC 2M followers, 108.3K engagements "In fact the hugeness of the outcome explains why it's rational for n to be large. If there were XXX delivery apps the expected value of starting one would be a founder's share of at least a billion dollars"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945899623823917154) 2025-07-17 17:33:18 UTC 2M followers, 29.2K engagements "The New York Times on Netanyahu: "He pressed ahead with the war in April and July 2024 even as top generals told him that there was no further military advantage to continuing." It's over a year later and children are still being killed every day"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1943706649291600321) 2025-07-11 16:19:12 UTC 2M followers, 206.4K engagements "So basically you're free to say anything you're not forbidden to say. Right"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946497089325732154) 2025-07-19 09:07:24 UTC 2M followers, 547.4K engagements "I don't like Bill Ackman or Tucker Carlson but Carlson is mistaken if he thinks Ackman is a useless person with no actual skills. If a useless person with no actual skills could make as much money as Ackman has there would be millions of billionaires in America"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944422091861729313) 2025-07-13 15:42:06 UTC 2M followers, 880.9K engagements "Journalism was still a thriving industry in 1980. People like Woodward and Bernstein still aspired to work in it. By 2010 you could no longer make either of those claims. That left a gap and the gap was filled by different people with different motives"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945877422647189862) 2025-07-17 16:05:04 UTC 2M followers, 56.2K engagements "There's certainly a list of people who wired large amounts to Epstein. Banks keep records of those. Let's start with that"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1942348509224554937) 2025-07-07 22:22:26 UTC 2M followers, 835.5K engagements "Beware of those who are excited about something that should at most be an unfortunate necessity. Stephen Miller shares this in common with Europeans against air conditioning. He's excited by deporting people. They're excited by the idea of people being uncomfortable"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944825466952561047) 2025-07-14 18:24:59 UTC 2M followers, 226.8K engagements "Bold leadership from Alexandr Wang. "Hiring on merit will be a permanent policy at Scale.""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1801488608353808822) 2024-06-14 05:35:28 UTC 2M followers, 384.6K engagements "Bluesky's usage graph. The pattern here is bad. Spikes when a bunch of new people show up followed by declines when the new arrivals are disappointed"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1930194301129994394) 2025-06-04 09:25:57 UTC 2M followers, 1.1M engagements "Grok randomly blurting out opinions about white genocide in South Africa smells to me like the sort of buggy behavior you get from a recently applied patch. I sure hope it isn't. It would be really bad if widely used AIs got editorialized on the fly by those who controlled them"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1922975418019180699) 2025-05-15 11:20:41 UTC 2M followers, 3.1M engagements "It's an illusion that there was a "bad old days" when Silicon Valley was funding crap startups. Most startups fail and failed ideas sound bad even if they could have evolved into something good. So past cohorts of startups will always seem crappy"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945898017514533244) 2025-07-17 17:26:55 UTC 2M followers, 56.7K engagements "The reaction of a British founder who went to visit YC: "It has a fantastic buzz about it a huge empowering energy but also a collaborative and encouraging kindness that could so easily be absent.""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945918904112386496) 2025-07-17 18:49:54 UTC 2M followers, 80.3K engagements "@DrewPavlou Unless your family has too many hundreds of years of history there in which case you get detained by ICE for looking Mexican"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946637050641260737) 2025-07-19 18:23:34 UTC 2M followers, 1572 engagements "@JohnArnoldFndtn Do you know why For example have murders of certain types decreased more"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947375952037626317) 2025-07-21 19:19:42 UTC 2M followers, 4350 engagements "Few of them realize it but people who say "I dont think that we should have billionaires" are also saying "I don't think there should be startups" because successful startups inevitably produce billionaires"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1939785335199637711) 2025-06-30 20:37:18 UTC 2M followers, 420.9K engagements "One startup today needed a new name. In ten minutes we found a five-letter .com name that wasn't taken. It felt like 2005"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1910791679579447366) 2025-04-11 20:26:51 UTC 2M followers, 1.9M engagements "13 yo has now dictated 83663 words of the trilogy he began when he was 9"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944176896033300935) 2025-07-12 23:27:47 UTC 2M followers, 96.2K engagements "Unexpected consequence of the improvement of AIs (though obvious in retrospect): they continue to hallucinate but as they improve their hallucinations become more authoritative-sounding. So the danger posed by hallucinations doesn't decrease as fast as AIs improve"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944387890504519922) 2025-07-13 13:26:12 UTC 2M followers, 169.5K engagements "We're about to see (if we aren't seeing it already) what happens when shamelessness and dementia converge"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945798946053312732) 2025-07-17 10:53:14 UTC 2M followers, 169.1K engagements "Write a search engine that ranks results by relevance"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1919334758917583196) 2025-05-05 10:14:00 UTC 2M followers, 562.6K engagements "@pitdesi It's true. A decade ago this would have seemed like dystopian fiction. It would have been part of a Simpsons plot"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1880753860635246843) 2025-01-18 23:07:17 UTC 2M followers, 63.3K engagements "Something I told XX yo: For the next X years or so everything I suggest will be idiotic. But don't worry I'll eventually start to become reasonable again"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945798659477537234) 2025-07-17 10:52:06 UTC 2M followers, 192.6K engagements "Journalists don't like Occam's Razor because it implies that events have more boring causes than the ones they'd like to write about"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1942237429936656707) 2025-07-07 15:01:02 UTC 2M followers, 97.3K engagements "It's usually a bad sign when the founder who seems the most natural CEO wants someone else to be CEO. But in the last two days I've talked to two startups where it might not be. Might. It did work for Google"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944823303245316217) 2025-07-14 18:16:23 UTC 2M followers, 126.7K engagements "In retrospect one of the things that allowed wokeness to become so powerful at its peak was the decline of journalism as an industry. The kind of people who undertook its institutional capture in 2010 mostly couldn't have gotten hired in 1980"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945877045105365369) 2025-07-17 16:03:34 UTC 2M followers, 390.2K engagements "@jbrown94305 To point out the similarity between then and now and maybe make some powerful people decide "enough is enough.""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946993597850538477) 2025-07-20 18:00:21 UTC 2M followers, 10.2K engagements "The problem with starting a startup to make something for schools is that startups have to begin by selling to early adopters and schools aren't early adopters of anything"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1875991091419533327) 2025-01-05 19:41:45 UTC 2M followers, 414.5K engagements "If you care about money or power stay close to AI because for the foreseeable future this will be the big source of change in both"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1939985801900601389) 2025-07-01 09:53:53 UTC 2M followers, 675.8K engagements ""We are to be blunt eating too much and probably eating too much of the wrong foods.""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945122847128506860) 2025-07-15 14:06:40 UTC 2M followers, 84.7K engagements "One of the strangest benefits of having kids is that it makes it much easier to figure out what advice to give people. You just ask "What would I tell my kids""  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1943356987594494307) 2025-07-10 17:09:46 UTC 2M followers, 158.7K engagements "The "nth delivery app" is a terrible idea unless it happens to be Doordash in which case it's worth XXX billion dollars and no one ever describes it in those terms"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945898638728691716) 2025-07-17 17:29:23 UTC 2M followers, 41.9K engagements "Explained to a rather surprised English woman that Elon isn't actually evil that evil people can't survive long as founders of tech cos because they need smart people to work for them and smart people can work anywhere"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1870889708764491777) 2024-12-22 17:50:40 UTC 2M followers, 10.7M engagements "@benkohlmann @GarettJones Make something you yourself want. Turn off the filter that it has to be a startup idea initially or you'll lop off the outliers. When you've thought of something start building and get a version X in front of your friends as soon as you can"  [@paulg](/creator/x/paulg) on [X](/post/tweet/1773134459224608864) 2024-03-27 23:46:12 UTC 2M followers, 99.7K engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@paulg
"@elonmusk Interesting point but an example might make it clearer. Can you think of a prominent person who's currently wasting his talents in software when he could be working on manufacturing and heavy industries" @paulg on X 2023-04-09 16:52:56 UTC 2M followers, 1.7M engagements
"I was talking to the founder of a very successful startup and he said the best time was in the first few years when they were just a handful of smart people trying to solve hard problems and no one expected anything of them" @paulg on X 2024-08-10 22:44:26 UTC 2M followers, 306.8K engagements
"@mmeJen Quite possibly. I'm not saying his work is valuable just that it's not trivially easy" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:53:24 UTC 2M followers, 30.9K engagements
"@mattyglesias In practice it's only possible when all your wealth is due to a single decision. If you have to get multiple 50/50 bets right the chance of winning by luck is 1/2n which approaches zero very rapidly" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:52:42 UTC 2M followers, 45.5K engagements
"@typesfast Medieval Technology and Social Change The Copernican Revolution Life in the English Country House Painting and Experience in Fifteenth Century Italy Anabasis The Quest for El Cid The World We Have Lost" @paulg on X 2025-06-05 15:25:43 UTC 2M followers, 102.2K engagements
""How could it be done to you and your ancestors and you turn around and you do it to someone else"" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 22:38:39 UTC 2M followers, 323.3K engagements
"@brian_armstrong @base What did you do to make it 10x faster" @paulg on X 2025-07-18 09:21:22 UTC 2M followers, 62.7K engagements
"@traestephens Boston is the intellectual capital. Not just of the US but of the world" @paulg on X 2025-07-18 17:25:28 UTC 2M followers, 203.3K engagements
"Teenage boys in the UK have spontaneously taken up golf. Not because of a marketing campaign or a charismatic young golfer. They just like it" @paulg on X 2025-07-18 08:52:56 UTC 2M followers, 128.4K engagements
""The cases reaching us are of people who collapsed in the streets from lack of nutrition."" @paulg on X 2025-07-19 14:36:37 UTC 2M followers, 1.6M engagements
"Wokeness will seem such a joke in retrospect that many people won't believe it was ever a serious problem. Even many of the participants will forget. But it really was a big problem" @paulg on X 2025-06-09 20:59:59 UTC 2M followers, 30.8M engagements
"Carlson is falling victim to a common phenomenon. He doesn't understand how someone rich or famous got that way so he assumes there is nothing to understand" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:49:14 UTC 2M followers, 108.3K engagements
"In fact the hugeness of the outcome explains why it's rational for n to be large. If there were XXX delivery apps the expected value of starting one would be a founder's share of at least a billion dollars" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:33:18 UTC 2M followers, 29.2K engagements
"The New York Times on Netanyahu: "He pressed ahead with the war in April and July 2024 even as top generals told him that there was no further military advantage to continuing." It's over a year later and children are still being killed every day" @paulg on X 2025-07-11 16:19:12 UTC 2M followers, 206.4K engagements
"So basically you're free to say anything you're not forbidden to say. Right" @paulg on X 2025-07-19 09:07:24 UTC 2M followers, 547.4K engagements
"I don't like Bill Ackman or Tucker Carlson but Carlson is mistaken if he thinks Ackman is a useless person with no actual skills. If a useless person with no actual skills could make as much money as Ackman has there would be millions of billionaires in America" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 15:42:06 UTC 2M followers, 880.9K engagements
"Journalism was still a thriving industry in 1980. People like Woodward and Bernstein still aspired to work in it. By 2010 you could no longer make either of those claims. That left a gap and the gap was filled by different people with different motives" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 16:05:04 UTC 2M followers, 56.2K engagements
"There's certainly a list of people who wired large amounts to Epstein. Banks keep records of those. Let's start with that" @paulg on X 2025-07-07 22:22:26 UTC 2M followers, 835.5K engagements
"Beware of those who are excited about something that should at most be an unfortunate necessity. Stephen Miller shares this in common with Europeans against air conditioning. He's excited by deporting people. They're excited by the idea of people being uncomfortable" @paulg on X 2025-07-14 18:24:59 UTC 2M followers, 226.8K engagements
"Bold leadership from Alexandr Wang. "Hiring on merit will be a permanent policy at Scale."" @paulg on X 2024-06-14 05:35:28 UTC 2M followers, 384.6K engagements
"Bluesky's usage graph. The pattern here is bad. Spikes when a bunch of new people show up followed by declines when the new arrivals are disappointed" @paulg on X 2025-06-04 09:25:57 UTC 2M followers, 1.1M engagements
"Grok randomly blurting out opinions about white genocide in South Africa smells to me like the sort of buggy behavior you get from a recently applied patch. I sure hope it isn't. It would be really bad if widely used AIs got editorialized on the fly by those who controlled them" @paulg on X 2025-05-15 11:20:41 UTC 2M followers, 3.1M engagements
"It's an illusion that there was a "bad old days" when Silicon Valley was funding crap startups. Most startups fail and failed ideas sound bad even if they could have evolved into something good. So past cohorts of startups will always seem crappy" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:26:55 UTC 2M followers, 56.7K engagements
"The reaction of a British founder who went to visit YC: "It has a fantastic buzz about it a huge empowering energy but also a collaborative and encouraging kindness that could so easily be absent."" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 18:49:54 UTC 2M followers, 80.3K engagements
"@DrewPavlou Unless your family has too many hundreds of years of history there in which case you get detained by ICE for looking Mexican" @paulg on X 2025-07-19 18:23:34 UTC 2M followers, 1572 engagements
"@JohnArnoldFndtn Do you know why For example have murders of certain types decreased more" @paulg on X 2025-07-21 19:19:42 UTC 2M followers, 4350 engagements
"Few of them realize it but people who say "I dont think that we should have billionaires" are also saying "I don't think there should be startups" because successful startups inevitably produce billionaires" @paulg on X 2025-06-30 20:37:18 UTC 2M followers, 420.9K engagements
"One startup today needed a new name. In ten minutes we found a five-letter .com name that wasn't taken. It felt like 2005" @paulg on X 2025-04-11 20:26:51 UTC 2M followers, 1.9M engagements
"13 yo has now dictated 83663 words of the trilogy he began when he was 9" @paulg on X 2025-07-12 23:27:47 UTC 2M followers, 96.2K engagements
"Unexpected consequence of the improvement of AIs (though obvious in retrospect): they continue to hallucinate but as they improve their hallucinations become more authoritative-sounding. So the danger posed by hallucinations doesn't decrease as fast as AIs improve" @paulg on X 2025-07-13 13:26:12 UTC 2M followers, 169.5K engagements
"We're about to see (if we aren't seeing it already) what happens when shamelessness and dementia converge" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 10:53:14 UTC 2M followers, 169.1K engagements
"Write a search engine that ranks results by relevance" @paulg on X 2025-05-05 10:14:00 UTC 2M followers, 562.6K engagements
"@pitdesi It's true. A decade ago this would have seemed like dystopian fiction. It would have been part of a Simpsons plot" @paulg on X 2025-01-18 23:07:17 UTC 2M followers, 63.3K engagements
"Something I told XX yo: For the next X years or so everything I suggest will be idiotic. But don't worry I'll eventually start to become reasonable again" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 10:52:06 UTC 2M followers, 192.6K engagements
"Journalists don't like Occam's Razor because it implies that events have more boring causes than the ones they'd like to write about" @paulg on X 2025-07-07 15:01:02 UTC 2M followers, 97.3K engagements
"It's usually a bad sign when the founder who seems the most natural CEO wants someone else to be CEO. But in the last two days I've talked to two startups where it might not be. Might. It did work for Google" @paulg on X 2025-07-14 18:16:23 UTC 2M followers, 126.7K engagements
"In retrospect one of the things that allowed wokeness to become so powerful at its peak was the decline of journalism as an industry. The kind of people who undertook its institutional capture in 2010 mostly couldn't have gotten hired in 1980" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 16:03:34 UTC 2M followers, 390.2K engagements
"@jbrown94305 To point out the similarity between then and now and maybe make some powerful people decide "enough is enough."" @paulg on X 2025-07-20 18:00:21 UTC 2M followers, 10.2K engagements
"The problem with starting a startup to make something for schools is that startups have to begin by selling to early adopters and schools aren't early adopters of anything" @paulg on X 2025-01-05 19:41:45 UTC 2M followers, 414.5K engagements
"If you care about money or power stay close to AI because for the foreseeable future this will be the big source of change in both" @paulg on X 2025-07-01 09:53:53 UTC 2M followers, 675.8K engagements
""We are to be blunt eating too much and probably eating too much of the wrong foods."" @paulg on X 2025-07-15 14:06:40 UTC 2M followers, 84.7K engagements
"One of the strangest benefits of having kids is that it makes it much easier to figure out what advice to give people. You just ask "What would I tell my kids"" @paulg on X 2025-07-10 17:09:46 UTC 2M followers, 158.7K engagements
"The "nth delivery app" is a terrible idea unless it happens to be Doordash in which case it's worth XXX billion dollars and no one ever describes it in those terms" @paulg on X 2025-07-17 17:29:23 UTC 2M followers, 41.9K engagements
"Explained to a rather surprised English woman that Elon isn't actually evil that evil people can't survive long as founders of tech cos because they need smart people to work for them and smart people can work anywhere" @paulg on X 2024-12-22 17:50:40 UTC 2M followers, 10.7M engagements
"@benkohlmann @GarettJones Make something you yourself want. Turn off the filter that it has to be a startup idea initially or you'll lop off the outliers. When you've thought of something start building and get a version X in front of your friends as soon as you can" @paulg on X 2024-03-27 23:46:12 UTC 2M followers, 99.7K engagements
/creator/twitter::183749519/posts