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[@AlphaNatt](/creator/twitter/AlphaNatt)
"Does M2 really lead #Bitcoin M2 has experienced a surge in popularity over the past couple of months largely due to its "eyeballed leading relationship" with $BTC and #cryptocurrency. But what do the actual numbers say If you create a Bitcoin Fair Value Model against M2 you'll find something interesting. Look at the picture below you'll see four different fair value analysis tables. They all model BTC against M2 but with the key difference of having different lead days. In the top left pane fair value is analyzed with a 0d lead or in other words a coincident measurement. In the top right pane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1978296688306786312) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-15T03:07Z XXX followers, 11K engagements


"@equinoxfunds111 It would definitely provide a higher quality measurement but unfortunately performing a Granger causality is not possible in PineScript as of now perhaps in the future ;)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1978377620996645370) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-15T08:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Which of these system views do you prefer: 1) Simplified View 2) Comprehensive View Let me know in the comments below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1976882797030916598) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-11T05:29Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Access this indicator here:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1978719942254932258) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-16T07:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"The XXX% $GOLD allocation from the EMRS continues to carry my investing portfolio through this choppy period on $BTC and the overall #Crypto market You might be thinking: "But Natt Gold has gone up so much how can you expose your whole portfolio to such an overbought asset" Yeah everyone said the same thing at 3500 3700 4000 and all the way up this rally. There's no point in trying to snipe the top; simply follow your system and ride the equity curve 🌊"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1979021165172867354) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-17T03:06Z XXX followers, 1305 engagements


"If this leading relationship between $GOLD and $BTC holds it's pretty much up only for $BTC from here. The fair value of $BTC is projected to be $160599 in the next XX days a XX% increase from the current price. Even the XX% confidence interval minimally projects BTC to $134261 a still staggering XX% pump. The keyword here is IF this relationship will hold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1978718121600192691) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-16T07:02Z XXX followers, 2094 engagements


"What's interesting about the $Gold - $Bitcoin fair value model is this: X out of the X times in modern history when $BTC fell below the lower SD band price continued to trend lower with an average decline of 9%. It is similar to a "thrust" measurement derived from valuation indicators once breached momentum tends to continue. Today $BTC is only X% away from that same lower SD band. If it breaks it is certainly possible we could see a move toward the 90K zone another X% lower. Could this mark the early stages of the next bear market Now to be fair the sample size of this is X -- limited but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/AlphaNatt/status/1979094241134678422) [@AlphaNatt](/creator/x/AlphaNatt) 2025-10-17T07:56Z XXX followers, 1713 engagements