[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@PredMTrader](/creator/twitter/PredMTrader) "Also in on NO "One-Handed" XXX shares @ 74c" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1976427913886249226) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-09T23:21Z 9417 followers, 1065 engagements "Ole Miss beats Georgia tomorrow BOOKMARK THIS" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979361793026986047) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T01:40Z 9417 followers, 15.9K engagements "LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL ON MAX VIBES = IMMACULATE. TAYLOR SWIFT MY QUEEN JUST MADE ME $2K ON KALSHI 👑 Please keep streaming Life of a Showgirl (but skip Honey)" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1974553518532091909) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-04T19:13Z 9181 followers, 6305 engagements "Someone made over $20000 on the LeBron James announcement yesterday. LeBron teased a major announcement Odds of a retirement reveal spiked Kalshi listed a market for what words hed say The announcement An ad for Hennessy. Kalshi trader Logan profited $22252 on NO shares 🎥 Watch the clip to see how it unfolded live" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1975943191473070503) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-08T15:15Z 8993 followers, 7885 engagements "Takeaways I need to start sizing up more I need to start Bonding more to put idle cash to use. Have already started this with the Bad Bunny Spotify market I need to automate more through use of API and other tools" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1977391830628024705) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-12T15:12Z 9034 followers, 23.6K engagements "LIVE TONIGHT - 6PM PST - MARKETS TO WATCH -NFL ANNOUNCER MARKET -KEANU REEVES -JP MORGAN EARNINGS -GOLDMAN SACHS EARNINGS -POWELL SPEECH" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1977869739667108121) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-13T22:51Z 9011 followers, 5086 engagements "I said I need to bond more Bond #1 at a very high APY" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978311006842495385) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-15T04:04Z 9031 followers, 21.7K engagements "You guys arent ready for the NYC Mayoral debate stream tomorrowstay tuned" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978479928254599306) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-15T15:15Z 9288 followers, 18.1K engagements "Sports volumes on Kalshi have been going parabolic lately Hear why Im bullish sports on prediction markets given their ability to bring in new users and increase overall volumes/liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978165844493369778) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-14T18:27Z 9370 followers, 6297 engagements "We are officially in NYC and like it or not this is what a peak streaming setup looks like The streams will resume tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978616636866265282) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-16T00:19Z 9342 followers, 6654 engagements "@AlvinOnKalshi @Kalshi @UNCFootball Wow that is XX% I agree with your thought process. Plus its UNC not like theyve ever been much of a winning program in recent times" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979190095161806930) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-17T14:17Z 9393 followers, XXX engagements "Jerome Powell coughs instant $XXX profit" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978138533962396045) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-14T16:39Z 9417 followers, 442.2K engagements "2025 has been a year. Got engaged to my fiance Quit my accounting job after X years Going all-in on prediction markets And now moving from LA to NYC Lock in" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978463382195028254) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-15T14:10Z 9416 followers, 34.7K engagements "@GaetenD @TheGrandeTop10 he doesnt list a single Ariana album unreal" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979557011894239280) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T14:35Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements "@DataBasedBets What a turn of events - I did not have action either. Can see people are debating this now in ideas section" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979594464638517389) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T17:04Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements "JD Vance speaks tonight at Camp Pendleton for the 250th anniversary of the Marines 🕕 5:30PM ET (Vance expected around 6) Favorite Play: Usha YES 55c She grew up in San Diego - feels very likely hell bring her up. Other Play: Recruit/Recruitment YES 58c In his last Marine speech at Quantico he mentioned it X times. Longshot: Nuclear YES 25c Pendletons right next to a nuclear reactor (I grew up nearby) - odds probably dont account for that" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979654882043781182) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T21:04Z 9417 followers, 10.2K engagements "This was just the quality loss Ole Miss needed The AP Poll better have them at least #3 tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979683697151639591) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T22:59Z 9417 followers, 5232 engagements "JD Vance in San Diego Usha grew up in San Diego Usha is literally at the speech Usha YES still trading 50/50 on Kalshi This is why I love mention markets" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979885607209050622) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T12:21Z 9417 followers, 5860 engagements "My goal is to make enough money on other categories that I can afford to punt a grand on college football every weekend" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979936812656214399) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T15:44Z 9417 followers, 2538 engagements "We make $XXX if Jerome Powell coughs today Lock it in" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978107910317052237) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-14T14:37Z 9417 followers, 438.3K engagements "Possibly the worst Kalshi live trade of all time. We bought Iraq NO during JD Vances speech He said Iraq XX seconds later" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1980000817571598519) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T19:59Z 9417 followers, 1848 engagements "WE ARE LOCKING IN TONIGHT THIS IS A GAME OF INCHES" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1976427563515032017) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-09T23:20Z 9404 followers, 10.1K engagements "Crypto crashing Refresh my prediction market portfolio Its the same Sigh of relief" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1976848936565719452) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-11T03:14Z 9404 followers, 4287 engagements "NYC MAYORAL DEBATE - LIVE 5:30 PM ET 5:30 - Debate preview w/ @ZhouJaron 6:00 - Mention market plays w/ @Foster (Kalshis #1 mentions trader) 6:30 - Pro poker legend @Joeingram1 7:00 - Live debate reactions + play-by-play w/ @locksybet" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978827708608950653) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-16T14:17Z 9417 followers, 53.5K engagements "FINAL PLAYS: Lie - NO @ XX Picking this up since variations like lying liar lied likely wont count. Fentanyl - NO @ XX Mostly an Eric Adams strike - with him out odds of mention drop sharply. Italian - YES @ XX Cuomo always mentions being Italian. Plus it was just Columbus Day. Horse - NO @ XX Another Eric Adams strike (horse carriage ban). Without him slim odds it comes up. Kalshi - YES @ X Purely a content play" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1978926322941325660) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-16T20:49Z 9395 followers, 12.3K engagements "A lot of people dont realize this but most of my viewers are elite hedge-fund quants" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979258549231296758) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-17T18:49Z 9415 followers, 48.8K engagements "@ben_shai_ Then explain why Citadel Jane Street and Bridgewater keep trying to poach myself and all my viewers" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979365683579453443) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T01:55Z 9414 followers, XXX engagements "@madlmentaaa I got in towards start of the season odds now are like 4%. This is my lotto this year for CFB as a big Lane fan" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979366123876552863) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T01:57Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements "Yeah interpreting the Kalshi vol surface really comes down to mapping the implied variance term-structure across discrete event expiries into a pseudo-continuous probability density. Youre basically looking at the second-order convexity of the log-odds curve relative to the forward expectation of the binary payoff then normalizing it through a Bayesian shrinkage prior on realized dispersion. When I look at it Im not just thinking delta or gamma - its more like extracting the stochastic entropy embedded in crowd-sourced priors and then regressing that against market microstructure noise. The" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979553323343626244) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T14:21Z 9397 followers, XXX engagements "WHY DID I NOT TAIL THIS" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979571504380858511) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T15:33Z 9417 followers, 156K engagements "Thanks JD +$175.46" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979685520994361691) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-18T23:06Z 9417 followers, 6159 engagements "JD Vance Pendleton Speech (+$200)" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979916353105518688) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T14:23Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements "College Football Plays (-$500 or so) I went X for X on College Football picks - You're welcome for not posting these" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1979916354833490069) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T14:23Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements "@0xJohnnE Big if true" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1980004786427629643) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T20:15Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements "@benwfreeman1 PLEASE GIVE ME THE ALPHA FIRST" [X Link](https://x.com/PredMTrader/status/1980006050758574540) [@PredMTrader](/creator/x/PredMTrader) 2025-10-19T20:20Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@PredMTrader
"Also in on NO "One-Handed" XXX shares @ 74c"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-09T23:21Z 9417 followers, 1065 engagements
"Ole Miss beats Georgia tomorrow BOOKMARK THIS"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T01:40Z 9417 followers, 15.9K engagements
"LIFE OF A SHOWGIRL ON MAX VIBES = IMMACULATE. TAYLOR SWIFT MY QUEEN JUST MADE ME $2K ON KALSHI 👑 Please keep streaming Life of a Showgirl (but skip Honey)"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-04T19:13Z 9181 followers, 6305 engagements
"Someone made over $20000 on the LeBron James announcement yesterday. LeBron teased a major announcement Odds of a retirement reveal spiked Kalshi listed a market for what words hed say The announcement An ad for Hennessy. Kalshi trader Logan profited $22252 on NO shares 🎥 Watch the clip to see how it unfolded live"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-08T15:15Z 8993 followers, 7885 engagements
"Takeaways I need to start sizing up more I need to start Bonding more to put idle cash to use. Have already started this with the Bad Bunny Spotify market I need to automate more through use of API and other tools"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-12T15:12Z 9034 followers, 23.6K engagements
"LIVE TONIGHT - 6PM PST - MARKETS TO WATCH -NFL ANNOUNCER MARKET -KEANU REEVES -JP MORGAN EARNINGS -GOLDMAN SACHS EARNINGS -POWELL SPEECH"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-13T22:51Z 9011 followers, 5086 engagements
"I said I need to bond more Bond #1 at a very high APY"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-15T04:04Z 9031 followers, 21.7K engagements
"You guys arent ready for the NYC Mayoral debate stream tomorrowstay tuned"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-15T15:15Z 9288 followers, 18.1K engagements
"Sports volumes on Kalshi have been going parabolic lately Hear why Im bullish sports on prediction markets given their ability to bring in new users and increase overall volumes/liquidity"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-14T18:27Z 9370 followers, 6297 engagements
"We are officially in NYC and like it or not this is what a peak streaming setup looks like The streams will resume tomorrow"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-16T00:19Z 9342 followers, 6654 engagements
"@AlvinOnKalshi @Kalshi @UNCFootball Wow that is XX% I agree with your thought process. Plus its UNC not like theyve ever been much of a winning program in recent times"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-17T14:17Z 9393 followers, XXX engagements
"Jerome Powell coughs instant $XXX profit"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-14T16:39Z 9417 followers, 442.2K engagements
"2025 has been a year. Got engaged to my fiance Quit my accounting job after X years Going all-in on prediction markets And now moving from LA to NYC Lock in"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-15T14:10Z 9416 followers, 34.7K engagements
"@GaetenD @TheGrandeTop10 he doesnt list a single Ariana album unreal"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T14:35Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements
"@DataBasedBets What a turn of events - I did not have action either. Can see people are debating this now in ideas section"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T17:04Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements
"JD Vance speaks tonight at Camp Pendleton for the 250th anniversary of the Marines 🕕 5:30PM ET (Vance expected around 6) Favorite Play: Usha YES 55c She grew up in San Diego - feels very likely hell bring her up. Other Play: Recruit/Recruitment YES 58c In his last Marine speech at Quantico he mentioned it X times. Longshot: Nuclear YES 25c Pendletons right next to a nuclear reactor (I grew up nearby) - odds probably dont account for that"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T21:04Z 9417 followers, 10.2K engagements
"This was just the quality loss Ole Miss needed The AP Poll better have them at least #3 tomorrow"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T22:59Z 9417 followers, 5232 engagements
"JD Vance in San Diego Usha grew up in San Diego Usha is literally at the speech Usha YES still trading 50/50 on Kalshi This is why I love mention markets"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T12:21Z 9417 followers, 5860 engagements
"My goal is to make enough money on other categories that I can afford to punt a grand on college football every weekend"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T15:44Z 9417 followers, 2538 engagements
"We make $XXX if Jerome Powell coughs today Lock it in"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-14T14:37Z 9417 followers, 438.3K engagements
"Possibly the worst Kalshi live trade of all time. We bought Iraq NO during JD Vances speech He said Iraq XX seconds later"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T19:59Z 9417 followers, 1848 engagements
"WE ARE LOCKING IN TONIGHT THIS IS A GAME OF INCHES"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-09T23:20Z 9404 followers, 10.1K engagements
"Crypto crashing Refresh my prediction market portfolio Its the same Sigh of relief"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-11T03:14Z 9404 followers, 4287 engagements
"NYC MAYORAL DEBATE - LIVE 5:30 PM ET 5:30 - Debate preview w/ @ZhouJaron 6:00 - Mention market plays w/ @Foster (Kalshis #1 mentions trader) 6:30 - Pro poker legend @Joeingram1 7:00 - Live debate reactions + play-by-play w/ @locksybet"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-16T14:17Z 9417 followers, 53.5K engagements
"FINAL PLAYS: Lie - NO @ XX Picking this up since variations like lying liar lied likely wont count. Fentanyl - NO @ XX Mostly an Eric Adams strike - with him out odds of mention drop sharply. Italian - YES @ XX Cuomo always mentions being Italian. Plus it was just Columbus Day. Horse - NO @ XX Another Eric Adams strike (horse carriage ban). Without him slim odds it comes up. Kalshi - YES @ X Purely a content play"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-16T20:49Z 9395 followers, 12.3K engagements
"A lot of people dont realize this but most of my viewers are elite hedge-fund quants"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-17T18:49Z 9415 followers, 48.8K engagements
"@ben_shai_ Then explain why Citadel Jane Street and Bridgewater keep trying to poach myself and all my viewers"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T01:55Z 9414 followers, XXX engagements
"@madlmentaaa I got in towards start of the season odds now are like 4%. This is my lotto this year for CFB as a big Lane fan"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T01:57Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements
"Yeah interpreting the Kalshi vol surface really comes down to mapping the implied variance term-structure across discrete event expiries into a pseudo-continuous probability density. Youre basically looking at the second-order convexity of the log-odds curve relative to the forward expectation of the binary payoff then normalizing it through a Bayesian shrinkage prior on realized dispersion. When I look at it Im not just thinking delta or gamma - its more like extracting the stochastic entropy embedded in crowd-sourced priors and then regressing that against market microstructure noise. The"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T14:21Z 9397 followers, XXX engagements
"WHY DID I NOT TAIL THIS"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T15:33Z 9417 followers, 156K engagements
"Thanks JD +$175.46"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-18T23:06Z 9417 followers, 6159 engagements
"JD Vance Pendleton Speech (+$200)"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T14:23Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements
"College Football Plays (-$500 or so) I went X for X on College Football picks - You're welcome for not posting these"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T14:23Z 9417 followers, XXX engagements
"@0xJohnnE Big if true"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T20:15Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements
"@benwfreeman1 PLEASE GIVE ME THE ALPHA FIRST"
X Link @PredMTrader 2025-10-19T20:20Z 9416 followers, XXX engagements
/creator/twitter::1813046445177774081/posts