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[@fabreres](/creator/twitter/fabreres)
"$MYX.AX: Where should this trade Consider $JLG.AX $IFL.AX and $RUL.AX. JLG traded solidly with overhanging MAC in principle at $XXXX ($5 deal) for a long stretch; RUL trades today ($5 deal) for $4.87; and IFL trades for $XXXX ($4.80). All are cash deals. Only MYX has had /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978568088544026975) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-15T21:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@given2tweet Aged terribly; but I just wouldnt have touched $PZZA on the basis of a StreetInsider report. Then again I hate money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978205615164932152) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-14T21:05Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@OrenGueta13 Thanks Oren Are you bagholding $ZIM with me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978404322040807566) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-15T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX: FIRB apparently wont issue its decision before XX October second court date per MYX PR this afternoon. No idea what to make of this: FIRB provides reasons to Treasurer (I assume) and needs time to assess judgement to provide substantive defence for its decision /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978715143732134116) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-16T06:50Z XXX followers, 1145 engagements


"@given2tweet Sorry Matt. I appreciated your commentary on $BHF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978873552192327779) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-16T17:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I thought this was an incisive take on $GRND although I dont agree with it. In the case of $BHF you could plausibly / similarly say management is propping up px on breakdown of Aquarian deal via supposed Sixth Street deal. Where would it trade without the rumour"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978903801315696948) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-16T19:20Z XXX followers, 1642 engagements


"To recap: I would be stunned if FIRB would reject this deal outright; they *may* impose a condition on deal-close presumably in response to the Premier of SA Malinauskass objection to Cosettes revised FIRB application in which Cos. stated that it /2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853790116466872) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"would close MYXs plant in Salisbury and with its closure retrench XXX jobs in SA. As an aside: the plant was constructed with non-dilutive government subsidies /3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853796332404806) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Any conditions on close could be similar to the ANZ/Suncorp FIRB conditions in which (by analogy) job losses or closure of Salisbury are expressly prevented for x years: /4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853799721419244) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"The FIRB clause in the SID requires Cosette to act reasonably in response to any condition(s) imposed by FIRB; but what if Cosette considers the condition(s) unacceptable First MYX has to elect to litigate Cosettes refusal; MYX might say: Cosette has /5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853837604454447) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"reasonably declined to accept an FIRB condition so well mutually terminate the SID. MYXs legal costs are indemnified by the SC decision so they are in their pre-SID position (in principle although bearing other non-recoverable expenses from the process). Maybe MYX /6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853841597390917) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"c-suite sees this as their out; they can continue collecting a salary and shareholders couldnt complain that they failed to enforce the SID: nothing you can do about FIRB Lets assume this response is improbable. Instead I would expect MYX to ask a court to compel Cosette /7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853845594587177) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"is obviously unreasonable for me to adhere to the conditions imposed by a third-party regulator as a condition of deal-close: my business would be destroyed Yet I would expect the court to examine the substance of the bargain before isolating an FIRB condition as a /15"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853890653929984) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"source of commercial ruin or even detriment although the condition is super-added to the SIDs obligations. Cosette evidently told FIRB it would keep Salisbury open; it did so before purporting to terminate. The court has found that Cosettes understanding of MYX /16"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853894382756102) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"at the relevant time was sufficient that it could not later resile on the grounds of a revelatory event; so why would the court permit a revelatory event - MYXs Q3 downturn e.g. - to support Cosettes defence of declining to accept an FIRB condition While its complex /17"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853898136625562) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"I think MYX has a strong hand here once again. 18/18"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1979853901307453936) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@sweissman22 @Simplejack2000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980340671413383662) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T18:29Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"$MYX.AX: Mayne has won. This was easily the strangest legal arb Ive monitored since TWTR which is surely the all-timer. What was Cosette thinking In MYXs annual report issued this week they attribute $XXX mm in transaction and litigation costs for the deal now all /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978341702055104574) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-15T06:06Z XXX followers, 6811 engagements


"Another is that Cosettes expert evidence on the effect of the FDA Nextstellis letter on revenue was roundly mocked by Black J (below). /4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978388266228273650) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-15T09:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Cosette actually despaired of the TGA letter and $TXMD litigation as causative of EBITDA decline. Each of its other grounds are addressed with extreme care by Black J and roundly dismissed. The most interesting part of the judgement IMO is that point that the MMAC decline /5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1978388269726306521) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-15T09:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"$MYX.AX: Im not inclined to read too much into this since UBS held through the trial where there was huge risk of MYX losing on one ground of termination; discovery revealing c-suite misrepresentation etc. You can only sugarcoat these notices so much though; /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980177704214569027) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T07:42Z XXX followers, 1808 engagements


"Ashurst here: /2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980182629636010494) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T08:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"KHQ here: One very important consideration here is that Cosette failed on each ground of termination *and* MYX succeeded on its election defence: Cosette affirmed the SID by its conduct (e.g. warranting no MAC to the court in May). The reason this is /3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980182632593047728) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T08:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@bowtiedstocks As a uni lecturer myself although in the UK I can say that generative AI is spurring a shift to closed-book examinations; these are typically anonymised so you wouldnt know who youre failing. Id be wary of any uni that resists closed-book from now on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980210598634979467) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T09:52Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@Simplejack2000 Not sure if you saw the Axios summary here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980727561840914529) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-21T20:07Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @DarkfireCapital Easy to miss but this was a pretty extraordinary story about third party preservation of pension ledgers:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980709842823049623) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-21T18:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"@Simplejack2000 I cant think they pass over this during the earnings call; but who knows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980352091685302523) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-20T19:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements


"$MYX.AX: a sensible HotCopper post about the prospect of an appeal prolonging the dispute / pushing the SID to expire before a judicial decision; poster observes that Black cited Yowie in the MYX judgement to emphasise /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/fabreres/status/1980739128296648863) [@fabreres](/creator/x/fabreres) 2025-10-21T20:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@fabreres "$MYX.AX: Where should this trade Consider $JLG.AX $IFL.AX and $RUL.AX. JLG traded solidly with overhanging MAC in principle at $XXXX ($5 deal) for a long stretch; RUL trades today ($5 deal) for $4.87; and IFL trades for $XXXX ($4.80). All are cash deals. Only MYX has had /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T21:06Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@given2tweet Aged terribly; but I just wouldnt have touched $PZZA on the basis of a StreetInsider report. Then again I hate money"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-14T21:05Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@OrenGueta13 Thanks Oren Are you bagholding $ZIM with me"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: FIRB apparently wont issue its decision before XX October second court date per MYX PR this afternoon. No idea what to make of this: FIRB provides reasons to Treasurer (I assume) and needs time to assess judgement to provide substantive defence for its decision /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T06:50Z XXX followers, 1145 engagements

"@given2tweet Sorry Matt. I appreciated your commentary on $BHF"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T17:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I thought this was an incisive take on $GRND although I dont agree with it. In the case of $BHF you could plausibly / similarly say management is propping up px on breakdown of Aquarian deal via supposed Sixth Street deal. Where would it trade without the rumour"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-16T19:20Z XXX followers, 1642 engagements

"To recap: I would be stunned if FIRB would reject this deal outright; they may impose a condition on deal-close presumably in response to the Premier of SA Malinauskass objection to Cosettes revised FIRB application in which Cos. stated that it /2"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"would close MYXs plant in Salisbury and with its closure retrench XXX jobs in SA. As an aside: the plant was constructed with non-dilutive government subsidies /3"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Any conditions on close could be similar to the ANZ/Suncorp FIRB conditions in which (by analogy) job losses or closure of Salisbury are expressly prevented for x years: /4"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The FIRB clause in the SID requires Cosette to act reasonably in response to any condition(s) imposed by FIRB; but what if Cosette considers the condition(s) unacceptable First MYX has to elect to litigate Cosettes refusal; MYX might say: Cosette has /5"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"reasonably declined to accept an FIRB condition so well mutually terminate the SID. MYXs legal costs are indemnified by the SC decision so they are in their pre-SID position (in principle although bearing other non-recoverable expenses from the process). Maybe MYX /6"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"c-suite sees this as their out; they can continue collecting a salary and shareholders couldnt complain that they failed to enforce the SID: nothing you can do about FIRB Lets assume this response is improbable. Instead I would expect MYX to ask a court to compel Cosette /7"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"is obviously unreasonable for me to adhere to the conditions imposed by a third-party regulator as a condition of deal-close: my business would be destroyed Yet I would expect the court to examine the substance of the bargain before isolating an FIRB condition as a /15"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"source of commercial ruin or even detriment although the condition is super-added to the SIDs obligations. Cosette evidently told FIRB it would keep Salisbury open; it did so before purporting to terminate. The court has found that Cosettes understanding of MYX /16"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"at the relevant time was sufficient that it could not later resile on the grounds of a revelatory event; so why would the court permit a revelatory event - MYXs Q3 downturn e.g. - to support Cosettes defence of declining to accept an FIRB condition While its complex /17"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"I think MYX has a strong hand here once again. 18/18"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-19T10:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@sweissman22 @Simplejack2000"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T18:29Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Mayne has won. This was easily the strangest legal arb Ive monitored since TWTR which is surely the all-timer. What was Cosette thinking In MYXs annual report issued this week they attribute $XXX mm in transaction and litigation costs for the deal now all /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T06:06Z XXX followers, 6811 engagements

"Another is that Cosettes expert evidence on the effect of the FDA Nextstellis letter on revenue was roundly mocked by Black J (below). /4"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T09:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Cosette actually despaired of the TGA letter and $TXMD litigation as causative of EBITDA decline. Each of its other grounds are addressed with extreme care by Black J and roundly dismissed. The most interesting part of the judgement IMO is that point that the MMAC decline /5"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-15T09:11Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$MYX.AX: Im not inclined to read too much into this since UBS held through the trial where there was huge risk of MYX losing on one ground of termination; discovery revealing c-suite misrepresentation etc. You can only sugarcoat these notices so much though; /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T07:42Z XXX followers, 1808 engagements

"Ashurst here: /2"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T08:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"KHQ here: One very important consideration here is that Cosette failed on each ground of termination and MYX succeeded on its election defence: Cosette affirmed the SID by its conduct (e.g. warranting no MAC to the court in May). The reason this is /3"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T08:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@bowtiedstocks As a uni lecturer myself although in the UK I can say that generative AI is spurring a shift to closed-book examinations; these are typically anonymised so you wouldnt know who youre failing. Id be wary of any uni that resists closed-book from now on"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T09:52Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@Simplejack2000 Not sure if you saw the Axios summary here"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-21T20:07Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@stoked_on_waves @DarkfireCapital Easy to miss but this was a pretty extraordinary story about third party preservation of pension ledgers:"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-21T18:56Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@Simplejack2000 I cant think they pass over this during the earnings call; but who knows"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-20T19:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"$MYX.AX: a sensible HotCopper post about the prospect of an appeal prolonging the dispute / pushing the SID to expire before a judicial decision; poster observes that Black cited Yowie in the MYX judgement to emphasise /1"
X Link @fabreres 2025-10-21T20:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

creator/twitter::1779123329569320960/posts
/creator/twitter::1779123329569320960/posts