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[@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/twitter/bryan_maxw46284)
"Please share this information (En espaol tambin abajo.) with any person you know who might be in an area of the Carribean at risk for flash floods due to tropical storm Melissa. Anyone who is in Haiti the Dominican Republic Jamaica Cuba or any other place that could end up getting torrential rains from this tropical system please take steps now to avoid being swept away by a mudslide or an unexpected torrent of water. Take a moment to study the topography around your location- if your location is anywhere near a creek ravine a steep slope or any other potential hazard make plans now to be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980534342305603610) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T07:19Z 1994 followers, 1112 engagements


"Take note of a few things we can discern from this loop: 1: CDO is getting larger and more symmetrical in spite of the vortex being tilted due to the NW shear vector. 2: The center (at least the upper level portion of it) appears to be losing some latitude now (moving WSW) likely in response to being a much deeper vortex and hence being tugged in the direction of the shear (southeastward). 3: Somewhat drier air is wrapping down on west side of storm. This dry air together with NW shear should serve to keep this storm relatively smaller and lopsided for now. However the extreme heat content of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980589954330722364) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T11:00Z 1994 followers, 3893 engagements


"@IvorEuropean @volcaholic1 Anybody with a computer or a phone can put together a fake chart full of twisted garbage and nonsense. Oil companies have very deep pockets and will pay these pseudoscients big money to spew their garbage all over the internet. What's your cut"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979341035982802990) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-18T00:17Z 1996 followers, XX engagements


"The public is very sensitive to being cry-wolfed. Every time someone goes through the emotional response of excessive warnings but those warnings keep not coming to fruition their next responses will naturally become less engaged. What happened on Fort Myers Beach during Ian was probably more due to human error in forecasting rather than excessive deliberate hyping up of previous storms but the result illustrates that people definitely become desensitized to warnings after multiple false alarms. The result was that many people made a very bad decision to stay home during Ian despite dire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979614705405870269) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-18T18:24Z 1994 followers, 2854 engagements


"True color satellite from Tropical Tidbits at 3x speed. Rotation is clearly visible in the low clouds and now the area of spin is about to move underneath a new burst of intense convection. With such fast forward speed a small developing vortex like this is unlikely to generate a good ASCAT presentation but that doesn't mean it's not a closed area of low pressure. We most likely have what would qualify to be called a tropical depression now but understandably without surface observations the NHC will want to see the ASCAT or surface reports before it gets officially called. But we can see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980104370977956183) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-20T02:50Z 1996 followers, 4198 engagements


"6 figure salary What planet is that dude from Maybe if you count pennies as the last two digits. When I was about X years old the local news stations held an expo at the Edison Mall and I met a lot of our local meteorologists at the time like Jim Farrell Jim Reef Tom Rector and Mark Pinto. What I remember about Jim Reef was that he was really tall and he told me not to bother studying weather because it didn't pay enough as he nonchalantly knocked on my helium balloon with his knuckles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980122782747820071) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-20T04:03Z 1995 followers, XXX engagements


"Looking west towards the sunset from just east of Fort Myers Florida. Why do I feel like I'm in Denver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980415408739172405) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-20T23:26Z 1995 followers, XXX engagements


"@NickKrasz_Wx You in Fort Myers right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979353530365542776) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-18T01:07Z 1994 followers, 4022 engagements


"@NickKrasz_Wx Ahhh ok cuz I'm in the Fort Myers area myself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979354520808493373) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-18T01:11Z 1995 followers, XXX engagements


"@EricBurrisWESH There's not even a XX% chance that this isn't a tropical storm already right now. They need to stop dragging their feet and looking for flawless perfection just because it's earlier than what they forecasted. It's a tropical storm already for crying out loud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980542042762813850) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T07:49Z 1994 followers, XXX engagements


"First morning light hits the tippy top of Melissa's (not official just yet but will be soon) powerful overshooting CDO which sits atop her tilted vortex over the south central Carribean"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980591448782475600) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T11:06Z 1994 followers, 1148 engagements


"@carboxy_ryan Well it's certainly not centrally located over the LLC but it's central over top of the tilted vortex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980603746032758890) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T11:55Z 1995 followers, XXX engagements


"@carboxy_ryan They don't clearly define when the dense overcast over the center actually becomes the official CDO so it's kind of hard to say definitely. But they do indicate that a CDO precedes the formation of an eye. But by how much I don't know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980604987207000416) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T12:00Z 1995 followers, XX engagements


"It is spinning but keep in mind that the reason we won't see the same visual spinning appearance as we do when it's a strong hurricane is because we can only see the very tops of the clouds that are at an altitude where the vortex is becoming very diffuse because the air is spreading out in all directions and starting to begin its anticyclonic motion. Right now it's a very small vortex that because of how small it is and weak in comparison to a major hurricane the spin is not as visually noticable. But if not CDO what else can we call it at this formative stage Central sustained convective"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980608972450132345) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T12:15Z 1994 followers, XX engagements


"@carboxy_ryan The top isn't showing visual spin but there is a ton of spin underneath it that is keeping it symmetrical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980609852687737228) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T12:19Z 1994 followers, XX engagements


"Beautiful sunset over North Fort Myers just a few minutes ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1976788098815254577) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-10T23:13Z 1976 followers, XXX engagements


"@schadjoe We can only hope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979983749262516611) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-19T18:51Z 1978 followers, XXX engagements


"I think in a case like this where we have very fast forward motion during the tropical cyclogenesis stage ASCAT scans need to be taken with a grain of salt so to speak. We have to remember how ASCAT actually works- by picking up the reflections of a microwave beam on the surface of the ocean and then interpreting those wave patterns into wind patterns. In the area where this disturbance is moving through we have a zone of XX to XX mph easterly trade winds already established so in order for this disturbance to be able to produce any wind at all from the west it has to generate what would"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1979998948099273185) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-19T19:51Z 1986 followers, 1546 engagements


"@weatherman786 Yeah and I think the one major flaw of the Euro when it comes to the tropics is the fact that it almost invariably low-balls tropical cyclogenesis and I think that flaw in this case is turning what would otherwise probably be a pretty accurate track forecast into a big whiff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980169090288492839) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-20T07:07Z 1976 followers, XX engagements


"@carboxy_ryan Ok so I'll just call it the CSCB for now. The precursor to a CDO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/bryan_maxw46284/status/1980611429867679861) [@bryan_maxw46284](/creator/x/bryan_maxw46284) 2025-10-21T12:25Z 1989 followers, XX engagements