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[@hillery_dan](/creator/twitter/hillery_dan)
"Bull market continues will BTC/gold and BTC/qqq stay depressed. Really isnt that complicated. TA doesnt matter right now thank you for your attention to this matter. Looking at leverage positioning and call skew / implied volatility everything else is noise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1974295363692409274) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-04T02:07Z 20.3K followers, 5544 engagements


"Starting to get expensive I think BTC volatility starts catching up to implied volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1975287935894434042) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-06T19:51Z 20.3K followers, 20.1K engagements


"Conditions under which I would purchase a BTC treasury company under 1X MNAV. No shares sold under X mnav. Willingness to sell BTC to cover liability payments if trading below 1x mnav. No secured debt. Suitable leverage in the capital structure XX% and not due for minimum X years. Low cost of debt (near fair value margin rates but can be higher since its non recourse debt). Commitment to stock PRICE based compensation targets for executives. No history of aggressive equity issuance near 1x MNAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1975684816952549495) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-07T22:09Z 20.3K followers, 10.8K engagements


"Interesting thought experiment leverage on a XX% cagr asset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1975926896207462405) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-08T14:10Z 20.3K followers, 3105 engagements


"Running the book"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1976462959993028774) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-10T01:41Z 20.3K followers, 5976 engagements


"Share buybacks for a BTC treasury is a defense mechanism. It's not offense it's not even really that productive unless financed through operating income thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977461413854552111) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T19:48Z 20.3K followers, 3550 engagements


"A XX CAGR asset doubles every XXX years on average. BTC terminal CAGR. Thanks for playing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977526540809158670) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-13T00:07Z 20.3K followers, 84.3K engagements


"Weak jobs are bullish long term BTC through 2026 cycles are completely over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978097026140082494) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-14T13:54Z 20.3K followers, 8523 engagements


"Chart on the left is price performance. Chart on the right is Implied Volatility (which is becoming increasingly important as things heat up). Right now I am sitting in calls for the two which are the lowest in both metrics. Favorite remains CLSK even at these prices. They do it right no dilution lots of power small market cap right on the cusp of AI transition colocated power. I'll take that bet over the ones which have already shown all their cards. Bet on uncertainty sell the news"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977500112453509122) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T22:22Z 20.3K followers, 5043 engagements


"MSTR & BTC Volatility Hurdle Rate When running a securities issuance fund that swaps BTC vol for fixed income returns the issuing corporation must be hyper aware of the volatility of each of their securities. I've talked before about the volatility of STRF & STRK being too high (at least for the time being) for the large majority of professional fixed income investors. STRC is an attempt to flatten out this volatility; a stable principle fixed income instrument that sucks in cash from money market funds. Again it's really a question of volatility which people tend to conflate with risk. When"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1954973624261136722) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-08-11T18:30Z 20.3K followers, 6224 engagements


"To get BTC leverage/ outperformance you do not need to issue equity. That's actually counterproductive. All you need to do is create a durable leverage package then enter at 1X MNAV and enjoy capital appreciation as your stake outperforms BTC. MNAV premium equity sales is a capital markets arb that is beneficial to holders who entered at lower premiums as they are accreting BTC/share. Sure early in the run up of a BTC acquisition strategy participants entering at high MNAVs can get yield above that of the MNAV at which they purchased but MNAV is effectively a risk premium and should be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1971658069307265052) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-09-26T19:28Z 20.3K followers, 6845 engagements


"BTC/GOLD will pull BTC up. Same with equities up and dollar down. Same Trade just need to blow through profit takers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1976018415329608164) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-08T20:14Z 20.3K followers, 6153 engagements


"Equities Stall Bitcoin Runs. Thanks for playing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977459497116283028) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T19:40Z 20.3K followers, 4874 engagements


"Bitcoin vs. VIX Using Equity Volatility to hedge BTC Risk: This first chart tabulates the rolling correlation between the VIX (CBOE volatility index) and Bitcoin. Negative correlation means that if the price of BTC goes down then the price of the VIX goes up. The chart below shows that there is a small but statically significant anti-correlation between the two. Therefore while VIX calls could hedge against BTC downside it's not very effective as a strict hedge. Now below is the correlation between the SPX and the VIX. This value is closer to -XXX which is expected. This means that when the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977523736480723267) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T23:56Z 20.3K followers, 3559 engagements


"Contrarian opinion Strategy prefs don't get crushed in a bear market. MSTR common probably crushed in a bear market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1976507605842268403) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-10T04:38Z 20.3K followers, 13.5K engagements


"In this forsaken BTC treasuries space being able to pivot quick has been an absolute necessary. I don't care what people say about Long term vision this that and the next thing. Investing with this equities is denominated in BTC and if you are losing value in BTC terms you have to be very careful. Especially with all sorts of deal structures getting more complicated defensive is the way to look at these things and risk allocation. What is the possible upside here vs. what is the possible downside. If the possible downside if XX% relative to BTC proceed with extreme caution is the way I look"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977460399088812091) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T19:44Z 20.3K followers, 19.9K engagements


"SPX and BTC correlation may trend lower after this brief dip while equities stall and BTC rips higher in isolation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977477207678189909) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T20:51Z 20.3K followers, 3718 engagements


"Markets have called bluff. We live in a banana republic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1977500969476014153) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-12T22:25Z 20.3K followers, 17.5K engagements


"There are certain winners which you want to hold through fear and uncertainty there are others where the upside no longer exists and the downside and risk outweighs the upside. In those scenarios sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978282419712090578) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-15T02:10Z 20.3K followers, 11.6K engagements


"September XX 2025 Dear Stravera Capital LP's and to whom this letter may be of interest. This months letter focuses on recession risk PMIs the new AI business cycle and the Bitcoin markets temperature. The recent underperformance of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq has been disconcerting. By analyzing Bitcoin cycles in the context of the business cycle the past nine months of underperformance become more understandable. With gold and equities breaking out Ill outline below why the trend remains positive. If I believed there were serious downside risks to the business cycle or particularly to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1972488971415416882) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-09-29T02:29Z 20.3K followers, 19.9K engagements


"Strategy Preferred Equity Vs. Traditional Corporate Debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1976280582125765027) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-09T13:36Z 20.3K followers, 88K engagements


"Dip is also fake because MSTR down less than btc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1976716206104064148) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-10T18:27Z 20.3K followers, 30.2K engagements


"O.9 mnav for a spac that holds BTC with no operating company and expensive payrolls and corporate risk and no leverage is not deep value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978098736208183745) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-14T14:01Z 20.3K followers, 23.3K engagements


"That's the problem a BTC treasury's only value add IS LEVERAGE. In the old days of MSTR it was cheap leverage funded by free cash flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978283915094679811) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-15T02:16Z 20.3K followers, 26.1K engagements


"2023. BTC tripled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978913490564960676) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-16T19:58Z 20.3K followers, 11.9K engagements


"STRC/STRF strength remarkable. STRF is the apex asset when it comes to MSTR's Bitcoin stack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1978935982889275700) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-16T21:27Z 20.3K followers, 10.6K engagements


"Based on liquidity conditions I don't think we will get the much anticipated bonkers move through end of year but I also see a low probability of a deep correction. Grinding and chop and some moves higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1979694465473540479) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-18T23:41Z 20.3K followers, 10.2K engagements


"Seems like a good time to own lots of spot and long term leverage. Further out ibit leaps are hitting the market. Some interesting ways to use them imo are buying 84k BTC equivalent ibit options itm for January 2028 and using that leverage to sell ccs to increase payout expectation over the lifetime of the option"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1980068831394488396) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-20T00:29Z 20.3K followers, 7605 engagements


"80/20 principle applied to BTC reminds you that its closer to XX% boring waiting and bleeding out then temporary moments of extreme excitement. Waiting for those moves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1980069162731864557) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-20T00:30Z 20.3K followers, 3496 engagements


"People criminally underestimating BTC X years over estimating until year end When facts change we must change our view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1980069386028269802) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-20T00:31Z 20.3K followers, 4674 engagements


"Liquidity picture looking increasingly difficult for the near term. I think we keep moving higher but I dont think we double in a couple of months for BTC. But maybe you can adjust BTC/gold power curve price forecasts higher over longer period of time for some hopium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1980069856587190396) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-20T00:33Z 20.3K followers, 4606 engagements


"Ya agree with this. Either we go 84k then 300k in short order or we keep floating higher for longer if you believe in BTC adoption trend which I in fact do "  
[X Link](https://x.com/hillery_dan/status/1980070687693021341) [@hillery_dan](/creator/x/hillery_dan) 2025-10-20T00:36Z 20.3K followers, 11.6K engagements