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[@trevposts](/creator/twitter/trevposts)
"Then: - FrontierMath turned out to be easier than I realized and it turned out OpenAI had access to some of the problems beforehand. - o3 actually got released and didn't seem that much better than o1 (though it is better) - Time just passed without anything crazy happening"  
![@trevposts Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1532808182.png) [@trevposts](/creator/x/trevposts) on [X](/post/tweet/1946358217543680047) 2025-07-18 23:55:35 UTC 3180 followers, 1064 engagements


"Back for my monthly few minutes on Twitter and the main thought I want to share is that it seems like AI progress in H1 2025 was much slower than I feared after the crazy o3 benchmark numbers in December so I now put less weight on very short (e.g. AI 2027-type) timelines"  
![@trevposts Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1532808182.png) [@trevposts](/creator/x/trevposts) on [X](/post/tweet/1946355961800905018) 2025-07-18 23:46:37 UTC 3180 followers, 8029 engagements


"@brandonwilson @Jsevillamol Maybe but idk we've been in the regime of enormous amounts of money going into grabbing those gains for a few years. It's clearly working to some extent e.g. o1 and o3 but still seven months later nothing THAT crazy"  
![@trevposts Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1532808182.png) [@trevposts](/creator/x/trevposts) on [X](/post/tweet/1946484273462321305) 2025-07-19 08:16:29 UTC 3179 followers, XX engagements