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[@isvaderthanh](/creator/twitter/isvaderthanh)
"Zero-fee model means no revenue. Bro @Lighter_xyz just did +$400K in 24h and is running at more than $156M annualized revenue. 🕯 No fees doesnt mean no business it just means you dont get it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1979264544703946794) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-17T19:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Day XX of waiting for $Liger on @Lighter_xyz 🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯🕯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980100578421432693) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-20T02:35Z XXX followers, 1467 engagements


"The ticker war has begun 🕯 @Lighter_xyz is choosing its native token name 👀 ⚔ $LIGHT vs $LIGHTER vs $LIT vs $LTR Right now $LIGHT is leading but we know what burns brighter 🕯 📊 Drop your vote right now guys🕯 👉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1978145709577699330) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-14T17:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"🧵 How to estimate $LIGERs launch price potential using data not vibes. We built a simple prediction framework based on $PURR (Hyperliquids memecoin) and applied it to @Lighter_xyz a Perp DEX with $150-160M annual revenue from zero fees and rapid traction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479147773452449) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:39Z XXX followers, 2762 engagements


"Baseline $PURR (Hyperliquid Dec 2024) From DefiLlama + public dashboards: Total revenue Q4 2024: $XX M  $XXX K/day average TVL: $400500 M Volume: $XX B/day 1-month performance: from $XXX M FDV $XXX M This is our benchmark environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479149866381656) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Lighter (Oct 2025 per Revenue: $XXX K$500 K / day TVL: $XX B Volume: $XX B / day Fee model: X % for retail; monetizes via MM + API fees 👉 For modeling simplicity well take R = XXX as the base revenue ratio input in the formula"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479152018096184) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Why compare $LIGER to $PURR Because both are native memecoins of high-performing Perp DEXs but Lighter launches with: Around $150-200M annual revenue Broader retail penetration (zero fee model) Faster user growth and unique incentive design (points + ref tiers) Real proof-of-volume from live LLP & XLP data So if $PURR could X in a month whats a reasonable base case for $LIGER"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479154371076428) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Step X Define four key indices We score fundamentals and hype on a normalized XX scale: (H C M defined below.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479158137548808) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Step X Linear growth model We estimate relative price performance with a weighted model: PriceFactor = X + 0.50*(R - Rp) + 0.30*(H - Hp) + 0.20*(C - Cp) + 0.10*(M - Mp) where Rp Hp Cp Mp are $PURRs baseline parameters. Plugging in Lighters inputs PriceFactor XXXX Meaning: given Lighters fundamentals $LIGER could reach XXX the same 1-month performance baseline that $PURR had"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479161534914976) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Step X Translate to price If $PURR started at $170M FDV and doubled to $340M a XXXX factor would imply: $170M XXXX = $470M 1-month market cap. If $LIGER supply = 1B tokens $XXXX per $LIGER (purely illustrative). This is not a price target just a model outcome under similar conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479164013768852) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Step X Probability of hitting X (logistic model) We also estimate how likely $LIGER is to replicate $PURRs X move. P(2) = X / (1 + e-(0 + R*R + H*H + C*C + M*M)) Using 0=-3 R=1.0 H=1.2 C=1.1 M=0.8 $PURR XX% $LIGER XX% So statistically under these parameters $LIGER has an XX% chance of at least doubling in the first month post-launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479166270304552) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"Step X Sensitivity If Lighters revenue advantage drops to only X instead of XXX PriceFactor falls to XXXX implied $XXXX fair value. If Hype rises to XXX (major launch buzz) PriceFactor climbs to XXX implied $XXXX. So your expectation range is $0.42$0.50 for a realistic month-1 window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479170921800007) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"TL;DR Benchmark: $PURR X in X month $LIGER has revenue similar hype comparable community Linear model XXX potential vs $PURR baseline Logistic model XX% chance of X in first month Est. 1B supply $XXXX illustrative fair value No hopium just a structured estimate built on relative fundamentals. 🕯 Lighter Higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980479173354483850) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-21T03:40Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"@KT_BTC @SoSoValueCrypto @Lighter_xyz @zama_fhe m cua dn thi a i"  
[X Link](https://x.com/isvaderthanh/status/1980843224295158195) [@isvaderthanh](/creator/x/isvaderthanh) 2025-10-22T03:46Z XXX followers, XX engagements