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[@penny_ether](/creator/twitter/penny_ether)
""We are XXX weeks into Q4 and SWC has already delivered +0.5% BTC Yield without including all warrants and +1.5% if you include all warrants." Can you explain how your BTC per *share* ends up higher when you include all warrants as *shares* Seems like the denominator would get larger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979316089369604200) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-17T22:38Z 10.7K followers, 1421 engagements


"$CORZ / $CRWV - Two Seas' "Vote No" presentation. It's definitely worth a read. I still think win-win is recutting the deal. If vote is no I think sp goes up modestly to reflect market's raised value on both signed and unsigned MWs. provided mgmt narrates the original goals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1977213905379508692) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-12T03:25Z 10.7K followers, 7143 engagements


"All this talk about exchanges and liquidations. but seems like the one simple truth is not enough cross exchange arbers exist. Could've made millions selling IBIT and buying unlevered on exchanges and this would've softened the blow. Am I wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1977456264192893068) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-12T19:28Z 10.7K followers, 3289 engagements


"This whole saga would be relatively easy to sweep under the rug. Sure mgmt might prefer the immediate payout. but if/when that's no longer an option their next best thing is to resume a focus on maximizing shareholder value. Eg: we value our shareholders opinion and in light of recent market evolution are as confident as ever that we can maximize shareholder value by diversifying our client base. Market conditions are vastly different than just X months ago and we are now free to resume discussions with enterprises and hyperscalars both of which we feel are far more committed to growing their"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1977459882375680233) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-12T19:42Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@HaydnBCole $CORZ trading at above the deal value. What you are telling me is that shareholders would vote to see the price go down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978414746366861783) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T10:56Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"$CRWV / $CORZ Poll: What will be the result of the shareholder vote for $CRWV to acquire $CORZ Assume $CRWV stays at current price implying $17/sh for $CORZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1973806512163201265) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-02T17:45Z 10.7K followers, 9048 engagements


"$BTDR - tons of updates. Now officially declaring they are going the $IREN route of CSP with "potentially 200MW @ $2b ARR by end of 2026." 570MW in Ohio (2027H1). they let the LOI expire so they can receive full economics. 164MW in Norway (2026Q4). 15MW in WA underway. On the ASIC/mining front: - Hashrate: They're up to XX EH/s. More on the way: XXX EH/s in transit and XXX EH/s being assembled. - A3 (14J/TH) and A3 Pro (12.5 J/TH): Started mass production. I can only imagine their hashrate growth as these start to land. Will also greatly improve overall fleet efficiency. - A4 (non-charge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978237534380445968) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-14T23:12Z 10.7K followers, 20.4K engagements


"@RealJimChanos Your assumption that most of the PP&E is GPUs is incorrect. Take $360m/q of AI revenue assume $4/gpu-hr that's about 42000 GPUs. Each GPU costing roughly $30000. $1.25b in GPUs divided by X is $312m/yr of depreciation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978423759028547842) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T11:32Z 10.7K followers, 1311 engagements


"The rare 🚨"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978446763011813851) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T13:04Z 10.7K followers, 16K engagements


"$CORZ - Situational Awareness loading up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978462387104522600) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T14:06Z 10.7K followers, 7358 engagements


"If $CRWV wants the market to believe they will not renegotiate with $CORZ they should agree to pay a $270m "renegotiation fee" if the vote is "no" and then a new deal is cut. Payment has to go to a third party -- me obviously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978559642037797215) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T20:32Z 10.7K followers, 4820 engagements


"As much as I love seeing everybody win there is something extra satisfying about making money on a red day. Biggest position is ZQ Q3 2026 and gold. If AI works weaker jobs. If AI infra build slows weaker jobs. Scared of inflation Gold. Weaker dollar Gold. (Copper is interesting here as well. as it captures upside to AI as well as inflation/weak dollar). To be clear what ZQ contracts are: market is pricing in about XXXX% FFR in Oct next year. A full XXXX% less than now. These contracts go up in value as the expectation for FFR goes down (eg expectation of more cuts by then). What effects that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978868685612761391) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T17:00Z 10.7K followers, 4643 engagements


"$CRWV / $CORZ - A fun little 10m study to guess $CORZ price if vote is no. Take $CORZ beta to $WGMI prior to June 26th and apply that to $CORZ price at the time and change in $WGMI between then and now. That comes to around $21.02/sh. An interest "gut check" here is as follows: - we know the price if deal is "yes" ($CRWV x 0.1235) - we estimated the price if deal is "no" (above) So given current price what odds might the market be pricing to yes / no Comes to around XXXX% yes. which matches very closely to the below poll which of the voters that didn't abstain was XXXX% I don't really place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978939060711301199) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T21:40Z 10.7K followers, 6106 engagements


"You claim the reason to pay mNAV XXX is there will be BTC Yield but there is only BTC Yield if mNAV XXX. It is an entirely circular argument. When mNAV XXX buyers are only made whole if there are subsequent buyers. This process continues except the requirement is an exponential amount of subsequent buyers. It cannot be sustained as there are only 21m BTC. The only rational mNAV is XXX -- not sure why this frustrates you. Yes you "execute" and take people's money when mNAV XXX -- so what You want everybody to believe there are an unlimited amount of those people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979447092847481079) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-18T07:18Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Hashrate / ASICs: A collection of recent writing in case you want to be informed on hashrate ASICs and ASIC production (aka the arms dealers of BTC Miners) The Hashrate Almanac: Why hashrate always goes up the hashcurve forecasts etc A study of ASIC CapEx / TAM / margins / economics / etc: Basically selling ASICs is awesome. About $BTDR's ASIC manufacturing prospects (selling and self-mining): Some estimates on ASIC TAM for the coming year: Bonus: Historic hashprice-adjusted network hashrate CAGR: -------------- Also we just adjusted up X% to 1080 EH/s in a period where hashprice was lower."  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1973553399443628272) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-02T00:59Z 10.7K followers, 11K engagements


"Circular reasoning confounds you. There is no BTC Yield if mNAV = XXX regardless of the BTC Yield in the past. You need people willing to pay a premium in order for there to be BTC Yield. You need an exponential amount of those irrational people. And you need them to get exponentially more irrational as the amount of possible BTC Yield shrinks (there are only 21m BTC). Those people will necessarily at some point underperform BTC. There is no solution where everybody can see the BTC Yield equal to the mNAV they pay. No as long as there are 21m BTC. but well before that because there is a limit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979460121446015314) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-18T08:10Z 10.7K followers, XX engagements


"$BTDR / ASICs - Bitmain has been the NVDA of BTC Mining and it's been quite lucrative; they literally manufacture money printing machines that will *always* provide operating profit to the buyer. Just how valuable is gaining market share In this post I explore some insights from an ongoing study I'm doing. Thing to keep in mind is that $BTDR is guiding to claim J/TH dominance in 2026. These claims have happened many times before. but $BTDR is already up to the A3 that is nearly on par with Bitmain. The A4 (with charge recycling) could completely blow Bitmain out of the water on the first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1969053367549755816) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-09-19T14:58Z 10.7K followers, 11.9K engagements


"$BTDR / Bitmain: Circling back on this and tying it to my latest article about hashrate growth: In 2026 I project around XXX EH/s to be added. That's about XXX GWs of capacity swapped or added. At $1050/KWH cost (just a guess) that'd be around $5b of cash spent on ASICs. In case those numbers sound ridiculous consider the gross profit potential of miners: If hashprice stays at $45-ish that'd be roughly $14b in gross profit. This occurs as miners' average gross hashcost drops from $XX to $XX during the year (due in part to the above allocations of ASICs). Essentially BTC is emitting $19b/year."  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1970160886863307019) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-09-22T16:18Z 10.7K followers, 6289 engagements


"$WULF is interesting. of all the big HPC/miners it has the lowest IV and IVP and huge options volumes today. Not saying bullish or bearish. it's just interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1976366990395900065) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-09T19:19Z 10.7K followers, 8036 engagements


"$MARA - Kindly requesting any information about $MARA's similarities to any of the other miners that are rallying. I honestly haven't kept track of that black hole for money. but if there's news I'm all ears. Did they announce anything beyond paying $168m for XX% of Exaion (undisclosed balance sheet / operations) Did I miss some announcement or signal that they might sign a deal for some of their MW's Have they been speaking more about pivoting to doing colocation Is this just anticipation of an HPC pivot -- given the $CLSK pivot Are treasuries hot again (despite $MARA saying: "we are not a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978160530570215514) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-14T18:06Z 10.7K followers, 2782 engagements


"@LargoCabayero @JeffLaberge4 @BitdeerOfficial I think the hashrate that is "hosted" is not owned by $BTDR. So by letting the contracts roll off they wouldn't get more self-mining hashrate. They would reclaim more rackspace for self-mining. and they already have quite a surplus of that. (See: power pipeline)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978415326569083281) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T10:59Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Any equity issuance priced at mNAV XXX generates asset yield. If exercised above current mNAV it's less accretive than ATM but still accretive (assuming mNAV XXX. I don't know or care what their mNAV actually is). Should be noted that yield approaches X as mNAV approaches XXX. So while qualitatively it generates yield it can be infinitesimal. Eg if I raised $100b at XXXXXX mNAV it's hardly any BTC yield. I'm basically a shitty ETF throwing cash at bankers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978869994701099322) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T17:05Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


""Even if you take a somewhat pessimistic view and assume that SWC will generate only +10% BTC Yield each quarter into the future how do you value that In X years you would have multiplied your BTC position by 4.6x." Jesse how many BTC-worth of shares would people have to buy in order for your BTC/sh to go up 4.6x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979310924277387690) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-17T22:17Z 10.7K followers, 5797 engagements


"@Croesus_BTC Ah makes sense. Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979332314233737728) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-17T23:42Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"First the caveat is: "rational" means you expect all participants to be rational. Eg it could be "sensible" to expect irrational participants. in which case you'd expect an mNAV XXX The fixed income products present an interesting case because those can generate cashflow. Eg they are in a sense selling annuities and so long as number-go-up those annuities will be profitable for $MSTR. However in order to realize cashflow the story needs to change from BTC Yield (eg sell prefs buy BTC never sell) to something else (eg sell prefs buy BTC buy back prefs in future or sell less BTC and issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979462659767427342) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-18T08:20Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@DrBitcoinM50862 @asjwebley The only justification for an mNAV XXX is that the BTC is used to generate cash or equivalents (eg more BTC)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979467544319652198) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-18T08:40Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Note to self: If the market is ripping and there is only X day left for 13F's to get filed and a stock is down at X year lows and it looks like it has bottomed out. buy weekly calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1956184985221603672) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-08-15T02:43Z 10.7K followers, 9194 engagements


"$CRWV / $CORZ - Take a look at peers. MWs are king. Besides what's fair for you Issue stock and get hard assets improved margins $1b in net cash. Or go ahead and raise $10b cash. see how "fair" that feels. There is plenty of room for win-win"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1975665950880825354) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-07T20:54Z 10.7K followers, 10.9K engagements


"Close to cur overnight prices on a IV-adjusted basis ( = implied daily move). Fun math fact: % returns of options are approximately IV-invariant when described on a basis. First chart shows which stocks are currently bid up more/less than IV would imply. Grats to $BITF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1977615075688284184) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-13T05:59Z 10.7K followers, 12.1K engagements


"Updated chart. jfc $BITF $WYFI $CIFR $HUT $BTDR and even $MARA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1977879993343447088) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-13T23:31Z 10.7K followers, 8716 engagements


"@matthew_sigel If I want raw inflation/dollar hedge I stick to gold and copper for now. BTC seems too correlated to QQQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978516557652279350) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T17:41Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@callistores Yes and hitler used toilet paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978545741552341473) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T19:37Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Each ZQ contract settles at XXX - (EFFR of the month). For example the ZQ Oct '26 contract used to be priced at $XXXXX. which means the market thinks EFFR will average X% that month. The multiple on these contracts is 4017. The margin requirement is around $1600 or so. Super leveraged. So if the expectation moves down to eg XXXX% that's XXXX x 4017 about a $1000 gain off of $1600 margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978873486224560332) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T17:19Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"This constantly worries me. I'm mainly exposed to the correlation of market down zq up than just directionality of ZQ. Though I do believe we'll be at lower than 3%. or perceptions will edge that direction. Regarding most watched. im not so sure about that. I think most of the action is in SOFR and somehow gets arbed over to ZQ. There is a lot of regarded stuff that happens on the ZQ chain. Eg standing orders at 2pm on fed day that are guaranteed to lose. (Unless fed moves target rate by a number not divisible by 25)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978901642742280497) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T19:11Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@PunterJeff @ChrisChattin "Zero missed payments therefore no problem servicing debt." That's an interesting methodology for assessing credit risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978245534193267031) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-14T23:44Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@BuzzardCapital Since almost two years ago:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978417929797484837) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T11:09Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@callistores The SEC filing says "from the completion of the Restructuring to the Closings." It is now after the closings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978563939525894374) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-15T20:49Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@matthew_sigel @210Texasthang @Metaplanet_JP Correct me if im wrong: it's accretive if when the options are exercised mNAV is positive or if the options are not exercised"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978850012651020425) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T15:46Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@eddyluxe_ Liquid. so futes or ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1978876891609133264) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-16T17:33Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Let's just pretend debt is always equity based but at a slightly higher mNAV than share issuance. So blended you could say it's all raised at some mNAV. Yes mNAV cannot be predicted and may fluctuate -- but just for educational purposes let's assume it stays fixed at some number. What's it look like for 1.25x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979330582724194622) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-17T23:35Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Depends on the type of debt I think. If the leverage comes from convertible notes it's the same as ATM. just at a higher mNAV (the "up" of the notes assuming they convert). This leverage is already accounted for if you look at market cap mNAV including diluted shares. So I'd say that mNAV should be XXX (in the most optimistic case where you assume notes are converted to equity) Additionally amount of debt issued is limited by NAV. So in that sense the mNAV should be kind of reflexive to BTC price. Higher means more leverage on the way. If using the above number for mNAV it means BTC Yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/penny_ether/status/1979499863734919375) [@penny_ether](/creator/x/penny_ether) 2025-10-18T10:48Z 10.7K followers, XXX engagements