[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/twitter/FreemyerGreg) "@x_times_1 @bert_gilfoyle @seriously211 @KroekerNathan Any reference pre April 2023 is irrelevant. That's when the new community benefits guideline was published. Many here thought that guideline delayed the conditional approval of the loan at least X months as $eose put together its community benefits package together"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946954947091738802) 2025-07-20 15:26:46 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements "@goodwillimp @seriously211 @mymorristribe But 1) relates to cash from orders not manufacturing. Correct It is a standalone requirement correct +++ My follow on question is if all payments received prior to manufacturing the cubes count towards 1)"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947848629403660392) 2025-07-23 02:37:57 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements "@NuclearFact Damn good question. But without orders why is $eose running X shifts X days a week I don't know where the orders are but Harmony saw X shifts / X days a week The cubes are going somewhere presumably"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948204028036276330) 2025-07-24 02:10:10 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@Vincent75364549 @RogTallbloke I don't think it is Q2 specifically. Just look at the 2024 earnings for $eose. The rear view mirror scene is beyond tragic. I've got my eyes locked on the view out the windshield"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948736246135631907) 2025-07-25 13:25:01 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "$eose Remember during the Q1 call Joe defined scale as Line X running at X GWh/yr run rate. That is a $250mm/year run rate or a $62.50mm/quarter run rate. === I for one think we are either at that rate now or we will be by the end of Q3. === That puts us into the operational area where $eose labor is XXX% of launch COGS. And mfg. Overhead is XXX% of launch COGS. And Direct Material is XXXX% of launch COGS. Thus we are either at or near the point that: direct material + labor + mfg overhead == XXXX% of launch COGS. I think that makes $eose a profit on every battery even without the 45X credit"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948150032961565035) 2025-07-23 22:35:37 UTC 1030 followers, 5416 engagements "$eose My best guess ==== Q2 was the inflection point per my calculations: First $eose embeds line commissioning and ramp costs in COGS. I don't know what normal is but it drastically distorts the P&L. The below isn't a P&L discussion. It uses COGS as described in the below slide: Q1 COGS: $270/KWh - 45X $225/KWh Avg selling price $200/KWh Q2 COGS at exit: $XX lower due to 3x volume increase alone spreading out manufacturing overhead. Reduced labor costs not hitting until Q3. $175/KWh Average selling price close to $250/KWh - $75/KWh gross profit (again not reflected on P&L) Q3 COGS at exit:"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1949030447796691070) 2025-07-26 08:54:04 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "$eose We re melting up from the late May fuckery"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945834158971887795) 2025-07-17 13:13:10 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "Manufacturing capacity is growing quickly and they have to buy felt in particular well before the need. Especially the felt coming from South Korea. Tetra has also said $eose shares their manufacturing schedule with them so they can plan their production and shipping. I can't imaging $eose doesn't have their manufacturing production by customer laid out at least X months in advance. By Q1 next year they will have $125mm of quarterly capacity. I don't know who will get that production but $eose has to hitting up the order book now to get manufacturing release payments to fill that production"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948786363714994449) 2025-07-25 16:44:10 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@ReidoFinancial Only $20mm in revs As of May XX shipments for Q2 had already exceeded all of the $15mm revenue 2024 year. That only allocates $5mm for the last 7-8 weeks of the quarter. Where do you see WIP+FG $10mm $15mm $20mm $25mm"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948749052033499445) 2025-07-25 14:15:54 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "Existing orders with XX% or less down payments don't get released to manufacturing is my guess. If customers want cubes manufactured in Q3/Q4 they have to send in there manufacturing release payments. Those payments are what I think triggers RPO. I expect Pendleton Phase X (40 MWh) as an example would have sent in their manufacturing release payment in Q2 for Q4 production. Hopefully $eose asks to get the manufacturing release payment at least X months before actual production. That gives them time to purchase and receive the raw materials"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948784108949123231) 2025-07-25 16:35:12 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "$eose is going to have its best revenue quarter ever for Q2 when results are released next week. That is a forgone conclusion and the only question is if they are XXX% above any previous quarter or 200%. Some are even praying for 300%. A jump from $10.5mm in Q1 to $31.5mm is just possibly possible from my analysis. If that happens today's $6/share will likely be $9/share (in just X trading days). Are you coming along for the ride"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947355994444447894) 2025-07-21 18:00:23 UTC 1030 followers, 4843 engagements "How big is NextEra from a TAM perspective Far larger than 4GWh over the next X 1/2 years I would guess. (From now to the end of 2029). There are only a handful of companies that NextEra could be talking about. If it is $eose it sounds like he is talking about several factories spread across the US. Since he basically says NextEra will be using only one battery supplier going forward this is either great news or horrible news"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1941460248167931992) 2025-07-05 11:32:48 UTC 1025 followers, 7004 engagements "Also note that slide isn't talking about marginal COGS. It is talking about all in COGS If $eose is down to $230/KWh COGS without the 45X credit we have ourselves a huge winner. Hopefully that isn't news to anyone"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948418903798874258) 2025-07-24 16:24:01 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "@NetMelc @HungStrikerCptl How much do you value a cube at If $150k 5/day is $750k/day. I am ignoring Saturday as a just starting to familiarize shift. So XX working days in Q3 $45mm of production. That is the bottom of guidance"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947653409634705913) 2025-07-22 13:42:13 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "Shipping an EV to Hawaii or Guam may have just become impossible as this shipper has just announced they will no longer accept new bookings of new/used EVs due to the risks associated with Li-ion batteries"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947085940352069697) 2025-07-21 00:07:17 UTC 1027 followers, 1872 engagements "@isorry123 @bert_gilfoyle If so it will show up in a massive increase in RPO. One of the first things I will look at in the 10Q. $eose could technically have a $150mm H2 but RPO will have to reflect that"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948017813551014302) 2025-07-23 13:50:13 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "$eose Is the Miami location on the map a NextEra subsidiary"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945297211358589436) 2025-07-16 01:39:31 UTC 1026 followers, 1913 engagements "@TulipCritique @thehipskipple @bert_gilfoyle @Cluster_6 @briand928 Show me math Use a X stock scenario: one with a $10B float one with a $1B float Assume the fund has $110mm to invest in the X companies with a weighted float basis. I asked Grok to do that and it changed its mind and agreed with me. The fund would buy XXX% of each company"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946164337934004318) 2025-07-18 11:05:10 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements "$eose I asked Grok to calculate the payback time for a PJM located data center to buy C/16 Z3 cubes at $250/KWh from $eose and charge from 11pm to 7am then discharge the rest of the day. XX% efficiency on the BESS. X time of use charges: - overnight (the cheapest) - base - peak (4 hrs a day I think for PJM) I also told it to take into account seasonal changes to the rate structure. X months of summer rate and X months of non-summer. It calculated about XX yrs. Not great as an investment but if peak power realistically isn't available in PJM the model might be very realistic for data centers"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1944394454657298528) 2025-07-13 13:52:17 UTC 1025 followers, 2245 engagements "$eose The below post is worth spending some time with. I forgot to attach my working spreadsheet and serial number tracker. Now attached"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948026624869322894) 2025-07-23 14:25:14 UTC 1030 followers, 3234 engagements "I think $eose became CM+ with the 45X credits in April or before. Remember the plan was to achieve CM+ then ramp production. Well production has been ramping since April X or so. $eose achieving CM+ without the 45X credit a few months later is compatible with it happening at some point in Q3"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948280132923265053) 2025-07-24 07:12:35 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "2 use cases: 1) Every AI data center that does training is going to have massive load shifts in less than a second That realistically can only be met with BESS and I suggest only Li-ion. Every MegaPack Tesla can produce will get consumed by this C2 or faster discharge need (not C/2 C2). I've seen the cube counts required and it is stunning. I doubt Tesla LG etc. can make enough BESS for all the envisioned AI data centers. It will be a huge bottleneck to AI data center deployment. 2) AI data centers need 7x24 power. That will often mandate LDES to do time of day power shifting. That is the"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948357528280002787) 2025-07-24 12:20:08 UTC 1024 followers, XX engagements "This one (funded by private industry) is set to start soon (Hours Days Weeks). If the satellite moves when the turn on the highly experimental thruster space based propulsion will be turned on its head. IVO Ltd is footing the bill because they are convinced it will work and they can reap some of the rewards. I would follow this guy for the next few weeks anyway"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946654425256182047) 2025-07-19 19:32:36 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "$eose My best guess ==== Q2 was the inflection point per my calculations: First $eose embeds line ramp commissioning and ramp costs in COGS. I don't know what normal is but it drastically distorts the P&L. The below isn't a P&L discussion. It uses COGS as described in the below slide: Q1 COGS: $270/KWh - 45X $225/KWh Avg selling price $200/KWh Q2 COGS at exit: $XX lower due to 3x volume increase alone spreading out manufacturing overhear. Reduced labor costs not hitting until Q3. $175/KWh Average selling price close to $250/KWh - $75/KWh gross profit (again not reflected on P&L) Q3 COGS at"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1949025298550247916) 2025-07-26 08:33:36 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "$eose Even now my shares are fully on loan. I thought the shorts would have been exiting in July. For a while 3/4ths of my shares got returned but fully loaned out for the last week"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948085473626267814) 2025-07-23 18:19:05 UTC 1027 followers, 2026 engagements "@ninoguarisco @GrassmanWilliam Eos uses a specialized felt made for batteries. They announced at least XX months ago they were looking for a US supplier. I think they are now getting half of their felt from a US manufacturer. Hopefully they will tell us more next week"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948914898387567075) 2025-07-26 01:14:55 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements "I'm not sure all grasp the slide. Look at the sub+title: XX% Cost out as of Q1 XX% Cost out at "volume" ++++ If we assume launch COGS was $1000/KWh the. Q1 was still $360/KWh COGS. But if we are now "at volume" (like I propose) then we are down to $230/KWh COGS. ++++ Thus my theory that very early in Q2 "CM+ with the 45X credit" was achieved and now X months later we are near achieving "CM+ without the 45X credit" and may have already done so"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948417451319795774) 2025-07-24 16:18:14 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "The US is turning mercantile. China always was. It's a new world every has to decide where they will fit in. Japan just said they were on the US team. Europe is trying to get on the US team. Amazingly I don't know where Mexico and Canada will land. Mexico seems to have grown exports to the US under Trump XX. Canada the opposite"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948078330798133755) 2025-07-23 17:50:42 UTC 1026 followers, 1312 engagements "@NPianosi @GrassmanWilliam I think this delivery plus the one earlier in July meets about 1/3rd of September need (lots of guesses there). $eose is scaling fast and keeping a couple months minimum of felt on hand is my impression so I'm guessing this July felt is in support of September production"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948734320299868453) 2025-07-25 13:17:22 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "Q2 being XXX% higher than any previous quarter is $21mm in revenue. If the felt is in short supply it will impact Q3 not Q2. Lots of felt destined to $eose was brought into the US from South Korea in Feb/Mar/Apr/May. More than enough for Q2 needs. I am somewhat confident that an alternate felt provider is now in place and the drop-off in felt from South Korea is just part of the transition process from the old supplier to the new supplier. Potentially there are XX cubes sitting in that Virginia staging lot and not booked as revenue. At X cubes/$1mm that is about $6.5mm worth. If those cubes"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947369907953537460) 2025-07-21 18:55:41 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "Have you seen my calculation of XX cubes for April Have you seen the serial number tracking table If CMP manufactured cubes are still shipping out of $eose XXX cubes for Q2 is a near certainty. 40+60+80 = XXX cubes for Q2. The ramp is on How do you get to $150mm for the year at a minimum without a significant ramp month to month"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948208136726134784) 2025-07-24 02:26:30 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "The July XX $eose short report is out. The OBBB was signed July X. The 15th was the day of Pittsburgh Energy Summit. The day after the incredible statements of Nick Robinson. Lots of my personal shares had been returned for a few days around then. Huge volume of shares traded as I recall. My assumption was we would see a very significant amount of covering had happened by July XX. Instead only the below small amount (4.8mm). When will the shorts cover Will they ride $eose to $X $XX beyond"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948731344755851687) 2025-07-25 13:05:32 UTC 1030 followers, 1578 engagements "That's RPO. Solid orders with customers planning on taking orders. The RPO orders are likely already in the manufacturing production schedule. That's why I will be looking at that as soon as the 10Q drops. I really hope (expect) to see the XX month RPO at $150mm or more. Without that it leaves me wondering who their Q3/Q4 customers are"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948789822736187409) 2025-07-25 16:57:55 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements "Jonathan do you remember how Q3 and Q4 earnings sucked and why $eose has XXX million warrants they mark to market each quarter. When the stock price goes up the liability associated with those warrants goes up. May 31: $XXXX SP June 30: $XXXX SP It is as simple as 150mm * ($5.12 - $3.78) but it is close. That one aspect will be close to a $200mm GAAP earnings loss. Then add on the actual operating loss for the quarter. Maybe $XXX million dollar GAAP earnings loss for Q2 $eose GAAP earnings are meaningless"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948588215964664101) 2025-07-25 03:36:48 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@mymorristribe @JordanSolace @TsnycTsnyc22 $25mm and I'm satisfied. Thrilled for me will be 3x Q1. $31.5mm I think there is about a XX% chance the hit that April: XX% of Q1 May: XXX% of Q1 June: XXX% of Q1 Q2: XXX% of Q1 (a XXX% increase)"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948787204005691637) 2025-07-25 16:47:30 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@goodwillimp @JordanSolace @TsnycTsnyc22 Based on Q4 and Q1 RPO without additional manufacturing release payments in Q2 I don't think $eose will be able to meet the $150mm revenue guidance"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948784632234655983) 2025-07-25 16:37:17 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 It is NOT as simple as 150mm * ($5.12 - $3.78) but it is close"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948588547381875055) 2025-07-25 03:38:07 UTC 1026 followers, XX engagements "@JordanSolace @primedcapital @MutaliskGluon I think $25m or more revenue and continued guidance to $150mm minimum for the year will be a successful ER. I will be looking deeper but that's where the main market will look"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948478725621682243) 2025-07-24 20:21:43 UTC 1025 followers, XX engagements "Now it's $XX billion Question for those that think the Senator didn't ask for announcements to be held for today: What miracle caused $90B in announcements around this event"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945115863314514343) 2025-07-15 13:38:54 UTC 1030 followers, 1033 engagements "@bert_gilfoyle A NextEra related project is more good news"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945304589508411781) 2025-07-16 02:08:50 UTC 1025 followers, XXX engagements "Food for thought: $eose Serious thought ==== details ==== The Z3 was launched around August 2023. I guess we all know that. To make the math simple I am going to make up a X MWh battery cube below and talk about COGS and sales price. Sales price I'm going to fix at $250K/mythical_cube but we know it has varied from $200K to $388K for 1MWh of BESS sold by $eose over the last XX months $esoe had the semi-automated line and low volume purchase agreements with their suppliers in August 2023. Let's say it was costing them $750K (in parts labor and mfg overhead) to make that X MWh battery cube they"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948818092915610067) 2025-07-25 18:50:15 UTC 1030 followers, 1682 engagements "I'm not. I am finding the 45X PTC credits earned each quarter. It is in the quarterly filings. KWh produced on the main line = $PTC / ($45 * 0.90) Is the formula I used to determine KWh manufactured on the main line. Then I had to pick a MWh/cube number to work with. We have been told: C/4 = XXXXX MWh/cube C/10 = XXX MWh/cube I had to pick something and I picked XXX MWh/cube for my calculation. Could be the wrong choice easily enough"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948220317333156126) 2025-07-24 03:14:54 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "I'm reviewing this XX month old post from @x_times_1 It was discussing in some detail the Q4 2024 exit COGS. His analysis seems to stand up to the test of time. He had Q4 2024 exiting with a COGS (including the 45X credit) of $134.61/KWh. $eose was delayed X months so his calculation should match Q2 2025 exit COGS. That is very compatible with my recent calculation: Q1 COGS: $270-$45/ KWh My calculation Exit Q2 COGS: $134.61/KWh @x_times_1 calc Exit Q3 COGS: $122.50/KWh My calc I always like it when my calculation fits in with other peoples"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948853024207896990) 2025-07-25 21:09:03 UTC 1030 followers, 2534 engagements "If I was NextEra and considering funding entire factories (not unusual in the energy space) I would strongly attempt to negotiate to get the 45X credits just transferred directly to NextEra for all production from those X or more factories. In $eose shoes I would certainly think hard before I walked away from a customer funded factory or two even if they were demanding the 45X credits earned by the factory. FYI: $LNG (Cheniere) built multiple $4-$5 billion CapEx manufacturing lines with X line per customer. I suspect many of the commenters here haven't ever even observed the energy industry"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1941971291537354813) 2025-07-06 21:23:30 UTC 1030 followers, 1716 engagements "@JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 Earnings Gapp earnings They will be massively in the tank Q2 and I hope Q3 and Q4. Josh are you familiar with the effects of marking XXX million liability warrants to market. -$0.60/share or so I think"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948578975112200365) 2025-07-25 03:00:05 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "Hates to deliver power faster than C/2 may not even be reasonably possible. For a lot of battery applications even C/2 is too slow. $eose quit even claiming it's a reasonable solution for discharge faster than C/4. For data centers that likely means a huge amount of Li-ion and a huge amount of LDES will be needed"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948230155278696803) 2025-07-24 03:54:00 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@HungStrikerCptl The ramp was a post CM+ activity. The ramp started in April"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947640147404529690) 2025-07-22 12:49:31 UTC 1020 followers, XXX engagements "@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 Price on June XX vs price on March XX. XXX million warrants that get to be $200mm more of a liability. That increase in liability lands squarely on GAAP earnings"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948590579199475909) 2025-07-25 03:46:11 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "Do we know about this: "That project completed in 2023 and successfully demonstrated its third-generation technology system Eos Z3 at a San Diego Gas and Electric facility in the City of Pala." In Q3 & Q4 of 2023 $eose was shipping Z3 batts from the semi-automated line. This could be accurate. I just never heard of it"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945632783734640684) 2025-07-16 23:52:58 UTC 1030 followers, 1526 engagements "@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 On the otherhand did you see the great GAAP earnings for Q1 Opposite effect. Share price fell around $X from Dec XX to Mar XX so it added $150mm to the GAAP earnings. Basically meaningless numbers"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948591202468511960) 2025-07-25 03:48:40 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "@GenXJerk70 Yep Doesn't get me to $40mm plus revenue for Q2. Might happen but that statement doesn't get me there"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948079712615670191) 2025-07-23 17:56:11 UTC 1026 followers, XX engagements "@MorrisBubba The statement by Joe was along the lines of: First we become CM+ with the PTC then a few months later we become CM+ without the PTC. The PTC only accelerates CM+ by a few months"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948265633486913988) 2025-07-24 06:14:58 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@OBGInvestments I remember when Cheniere ($LNG) was about a $15B market cap (2018/2019). I was much more trusting of my analysis than the analysts"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948727263173759061) 2025-07-25 12:49:19 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "Weo no one can make a truly educated statement about revenue. But it should be possible to estimate 45X credits. That is reported quarterly. Say $XXXXX per KWh. My estimate is XXX cubes worth of Z3s manufactured. Credits based on XXX MWh / cube My guess is $7.22mm in 45X PTC credits"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947277917790036364) 2025-07-21 12:50:08 UTC 1029 followers, XXX engagements "Just make sure you heard what I said: - I'm talking about Q3 so X months before we see numbers - I have made no claim as to what "Launch COGS" value is and it is the basis of the calculation - $eose is adding in $10s of millions of line commissioning costs still. That's per quarter. It will keep the reported gross profit from anywhere close to 49%"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948556611804446734) 2025-07-25 01:31:13 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "I like the guiding wave concept. Not that I understand it but at least it lets me have real particles / photons Wave-particle duality is beyond my brain to comprehend. And I'm an undergrad physics major. I studied this stuff From Grok: +++++++++++ In quantum mechanics the pilot wave concept is primarily associated with the de Broglie-Bohm theory. It goes by a few names including: - Pilot Wave Theory - Emphasizes the guiding wave that directs particle motion. - Bohmian Mechanics - Named after David Bohm who developed the theory further in the 1950s. - de Broglie-Bohm Theory - Acknowledges"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947733692799226355) 2025-07-22 19:01:14 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 I only care so I can ignore it Lots of stock pricing models are 20x EPS or similar. $eose won't have a meaningful EPS until the warrants expire in 2032 or so"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948592156618137716) 2025-07-25 03:52:27 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "Re: "23.3% of sales price" The slide says that at scale COGS will be XXXX% of the launch COGS. Thus if it cost $1000/KWh to make Z3 at the launch almost X years ago it costs $233/KWh at scale. And Joe defined scale for that slide to be X GWh/yr run rate. I am claiming we are very close to that run rate. I don't know what launch COGS was"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948283655425515949) 2025-07-24 07:26:35 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements "You guys are crazy If Black Rock has $100B AUM tracking R2K and the R2K aggregate float is $XXX Trillion: Black Rock buys $100B / $3.3T percent of every stock in the R2K. That's 3%. Vanguard will be less than that. ++++ At least half the XX million shares Black Rock bought have nothing to do with R2K tracking"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946187600928063772) 2025-07-18 12:37:37 UTC 1025 followers, XXX engagements "@Bullstkpicks @bert_gilfoyle The Q2 earnings call will be an inflection point for sure but the Q3 earnings call is the one I am waiting for. It is going to shock the market"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946857291044495739) 2025-07-20 08:58:43 UTC 1021 followers, XX engagements "Did you ever get a satisfactory guestimate to 1st quarter marginal COGS/KWh I see "ramp expense" is pushed into COGS. I'm not a CPA but that seems weird. This is from the COGS paragraph in the Q1 10Q: "As a nascent technology with a new manufacturing process that is early in its product lifecycle the Company still faces significant costs associated with production start-up commissioning of various components modules and subsystems and other related costs." I'm thinking "materials+labor+mfg overhead" has fallen significantly since then. ie. X - (23/36) A XX% drop for Q3 COGS relative to Q1 for"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948455110721368494) 2025-07-24 18:47:53 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "If $eose has customers for the cubes I think they will be at the top end of guidance. The ramp is real. Cubes are leaving Turtle Creek like never before. The line will be fully implemented in another few weeks and sub-assembly manufacturing is already at least XX% in place. The only reasons $190mm can't be achieved: - no customers to ship the cubes to - no raw materials from suppliers ++++ I think raw materials are good to go. Enclosures seem to finally be in good supply. Tetra has the electrolyte covered for in excess of just Line X fully ramped. A new US felt supplier seems to be in place"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948008175602487336) 2025-07-23 13:11:55 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements "@asymmetry292 @thehipskipple The FUZES project is very clearly NextEra as the utility and Eos as the BESS. Very non-secret"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1945578361822056902) 2025-07-16 20:16:43 UTC 1020 followers, XXX engagements "@eachus @OfMikeAndMen @DirkBruere @ToughSf @memcculloch I think the most descriptive paper you will find is the Becker and Bhatt paper. IVO Ltd is a for profit Corp and they plan to make money selling their thruster. It is a commercial repeatable design according to them"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947622464067903497) 2025-07-22 11:39:15 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements "Reposting from a lessor read reply: Do we have Q2 guidance other than: Q2 2025 will make up for Q4 2024 Q4 2024 was supposed to be around $40mm. I think most have forgotten the guidance. Not $eose fault we have no memory == Real answers appreciated =="  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948046715073806795) 2025-07-23 15:45:04 UTC 1026 followers, 2303 engagements "Yeah I'm XX% shares from a $s perspective. My DCA is $XXXX. And the date is Nov XX for the warrants I'm pretty sure. If I can convert 40k warrants at $XXXXX that's about $450K straight into $eose bank account. (Working on making that possible). Doing my part to keep it from all being a cashless conversion"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946616609868481006) 2025-07-19 17:02:20 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements "@NetMelc @HungStrikerCptl City Utilities they gave us both MWh and $s XXX MWh C/6 Was it $73mm (i can't find it right now)"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1947665240461562244) 2025-07-22 14:29:13 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "@grantgerke @bert_gilfoyle BlackRock is not Blackstone BlackRock was the recent 13G filing"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948016977844298122) 2025-07-23 13:46:54 UTC 1025 followers, XX engagements "Anyone going to join me in buying "new" never before issued $eose shares on Nov XX I'm going to exercise at least 20000 of my $eosew warrants Assumes the share price is $XXXXX or more at the close on Nov XX I don't have that much cash so I will sell 20000 of old used shares at the close on Nov XX to have funds to buy the 20000 shares the next morning. Most of us in this community can do similar"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946600277152498041) 2025-07-19 15:57:26 UTC 1026 followers, 3088 engagements "I don't think $eose provides warehouse services. When your cube is ready it gets shipped. The buyer has to have a staging lot (aka a "lay-down lot"). That is pretty common in construction. That's one reason I think the Virginia cubes we saw were delivered to the customer and not part of $eose inventory by the end of Q2"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1948858046215532589) 2025-07-25 21:29:00 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements "I put this $eose (EOS Energy) summary report together with Co-pilot: ++++ Eos Energy Investment Uniquenesses (Strategic Focus Enhanced) - 15+ years of chemistry-first R&D Eos developed its proprietary Znyth zinc hybrid cathode chemistry over more than a decadeestablishing a deep technical moat and positioning itself as a non-lithium alternative for long-duration energy storage (LDES). - Reshoring manufacturing from China (2018) Under Joe Mastrangelos leadership Eos proactively shifted component sourcing and manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania anticipating geopolitical risk and supply"  [@FreemyerGreg](/creator/x/FreemyerGreg) on [X](/post/tweet/1946535527399977100) 2025-07-19 11:40:09 UTC 1030 followers, 4696 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@FreemyerGreg
"@x_times_1 @bert_gilfoyle @seriously211 @KroekerNathan Any reference pre April 2023 is irrelevant. That's when the new community benefits guideline was published. Many here thought that guideline delayed the conditional approval of the loan at least X months as $eose put together its community benefits package together"
@FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-20 15:26:46 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements
"@goodwillimp @seriously211 @mymorristribe But 1) relates to cash from orders not manufacturing. Correct It is a standalone requirement correct +++ My follow on question is if all payments received prior to manufacturing the cubes count towards 1)" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 02:37:57 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements
"@NuclearFact Damn good question. But without orders why is $eose running X shifts X days a week I don't know where the orders are but Harmony saw X shifts / X days a week The cubes are going somewhere presumably" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 02:10:10 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@Vincent75364549 @RogTallbloke I don't think it is Q2 specifically. Just look at the 2024 earnings for $eose. The rear view mirror scene is beyond tragic. I've got my eyes locked on the view out the windshield" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 13:25:01 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose Remember during the Q1 call Joe defined scale as Line X running at X GWh/yr run rate. That is a $250mm/year run rate or a $62.50mm/quarter run rate. === I for one think we are either at that rate now or we will be by the end of Q3. === That puts us into the operational area where $eose labor is XXX% of launch COGS. And mfg. Overhead is XXX% of launch COGS. And Direct Material is XXXX% of launch COGS. Thus we are either at or near the point that: direct material + labor + mfg overhead == XXXX% of launch COGS. I think that makes $eose a profit on every battery even without the 45X credit" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 22:35:37 UTC 1030 followers, 5416 engagements
"$eose My best guess ==== Q2 was the inflection point per my calculations: First $eose embeds line commissioning and ramp costs in COGS. I don't know what normal is but it drastically distorts the P&L. The below isn't a P&L discussion. It uses COGS as described in the below slide: Q1 COGS: $270/KWh - 45X $225/KWh Avg selling price $200/KWh Q2 COGS at exit: $XX lower due to 3x volume increase alone spreading out manufacturing overhead. Reduced labor costs not hitting until Q3. $175/KWh Average selling price close to $250/KWh - $75/KWh gross profit (again not reflected on P&L) Q3 COGS at exit:" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-26 08:54:04 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose We re melting up from the late May fuckery" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-17 13:13:10 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"Manufacturing capacity is growing quickly and they have to buy felt in particular well before the need. Especially the felt coming from South Korea. Tetra has also said $eose shares their manufacturing schedule with them so they can plan their production and shipping. I can't imaging $eose doesn't have their manufacturing production by customer laid out at least X months in advance. By Q1 next year they will have $125mm of quarterly capacity. I don't know who will get that production but $eose has to hitting up the order book now to get manufacturing release payments to fill that production" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 16:44:10 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@ReidoFinancial Only $20mm in revs As of May XX shipments for Q2 had already exceeded all of the $15mm revenue 2024 year. That only allocates $5mm for the last 7-8 weeks of the quarter. Where do you see WIP+FG $10mm $15mm $20mm $25mm" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 14:15:54 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"Existing orders with XX% or less down payments don't get released to manufacturing is my guess. If customers want cubes manufactured in Q3/Q4 they have to send in there manufacturing release payments. Those payments are what I think triggers RPO. I expect Pendleton Phase X (40 MWh) as an example would have sent in their manufacturing release payment in Q2 for Q4 production. Hopefully $eose asks to get the manufacturing release payment at least X months before actual production. That gives them time to purchase and receive the raw materials" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 16:35:12 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose is going to have its best revenue quarter ever for Q2 when results are released next week. That is a forgone conclusion and the only question is if they are XXX% above any previous quarter or 200%. Some are even praying for 300%. A jump from $10.5mm in Q1 to $31.5mm is just possibly possible from my analysis. If that happens today's $6/share will likely be $9/share (in just X trading days). Are you coming along for the ride" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-21 18:00:23 UTC 1030 followers, 4843 engagements
"How big is NextEra from a TAM perspective Far larger than 4GWh over the next X 1/2 years I would guess. (From now to the end of 2029). There are only a handful of companies that NextEra could be talking about. If it is $eose it sounds like he is talking about several factories spread across the US. Since he basically says NextEra will be using only one battery supplier going forward this is either great news or horrible news" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-05 11:32:48 UTC 1025 followers, 7004 engagements
"Also note that slide isn't talking about marginal COGS. It is talking about all in COGS If $eose is down to $230/KWh COGS without the 45X credit we have ourselves a huge winner. Hopefully that isn't news to anyone" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 16:24:01 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"@NetMelc @HungStrikerCptl How much do you value a cube at If $150k 5/day is $750k/day. I am ignoring Saturday as a just starting to familiarize shift. So XX working days in Q3 $45mm of production. That is the bottom of guidance" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-22 13:42:13 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"Shipping an EV to Hawaii or Guam may have just become impossible as this shipper has just announced they will no longer accept new bookings of new/used EVs due to the risks associated with Li-ion batteries" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-21 00:07:17 UTC 1027 followers, 1872 engagements
"@isorry123 @bert_gilfoyle If so it will show up in a massive increase in RPO. One of the first things I will look at in the 10Q. $eose could technically have a $150mm H2 but RPO will have to reflect that" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 13:50:13 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose Is the Miami location on the map a NextEra subsidiary" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-16 01:39:31 UTC 1026 followers, 1913 engagements
"@TulipCritique @thehipskipple @bert_gilfoyle @Cluster_6 @briand928 Show me math Use a X stock scenario: one with a $10B float one with a $1B float Assume the fund has $110mm to invest in the X companies with a weighted float basis. I asked Grok to do that and it changed its mind and agreed with me. The fund would buy XXX% of each company" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-18 11:05:10 UTC 1024 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose I asked Grok to calculate the payback time for a PJM located data center to buy C/16 Z3 cubes at $250/KWh from $eose and charge from 11pm to 7am then discharge the rest of the day. XX% efficiency on the BESS. X time of use charges: - overnight (the cheapest) - base - peak (4 hrs a day I think for PJM) I also told it to take into account seasonal changes to the rate structure. X months of summer rate and X months of non-summer. It calculated about XX yrs. Not great as an investment but if peak power realistically isn't available in PJM the model might be very realistic for data centers" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-13 13:52:17 UTC 1025 followers, 2245 engagements
"$eose The below post is worth spending some time with. I forgot to attach my working spreadsheet and serial number tracker. Now attached" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 14:25:14 UTC 1030 followers, 3234 engagements
"I think $eose became CM+ with the 45X credits in April or before. Remember the plan was to achieve CM+ then ramp production. Well production has been ramping since April X or so. $eose achieving CM+ without the 45X credit a few months later is compatible with it happening at some point in Q3" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 07:12:35 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"2 use cases: 1) Every AI data center that does training is going to have massive load shifts in less than a second That realistically can only be met with BESS and I suggest only Li-ion. Every MegaPack Tesla can produce will get consumed by this C2 or faster discharge need (not C/2 C2). I've seen the cube counts required and it is stunning. I doubt Tesla LG etc. can make enough BESS for all the envisioned AI data centers. It will be a huge bottleneck to AI data center deployment. 2) AI data centers need 7x24 power. That will often mandate LDES to do time of day power shifting. That is the" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 12:20:08 UTC 1024 followers, XX engagements
"This one (funded by private industry) is set to start soon (Hours Days Weeks). If the satellite moves when the turn on the highly experimental thruster space based propulsion will be turned on its head. IVO Ltd is footing the bill because they are convinced it will work and they can reap some of the rewards. I would follow this guy for the next few weeks anyway" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-19 19:32:36 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose My best guess ==== Q2 was the inflection point per my calculations: First $eose embeds line ramp commissioning and ramp costs in COGS. I don't know what normal is but it drastically distorts the P&L. The below isn't a P&L discussion. It uses COGS as described in the below slide: Q1 COGS: $270/KWh - 45X $225/KWh Avg selling price $200/KWh Q2 COGS at exit: $XX lower due to 3x volume increase alone spreading out manufacturing overhear. Reduced labor costs not hitting until Q3. $175/KWh Average selling price close to $250/KWh - $75/KWh gross profit (again not reflected on P&L) Q3 COGS at" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-26 08:33:36 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"$eose Even now my shares are fully on loan. I thought the shorts would have been exiting in July. For a while 3/4ths of my shares got returned but fully loaned out for the last week" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 18:19:05 UTC 1027 followers, 2026 engagements
"@ninoguarisco @GrassmanWilliam Eos uses a specialized felt made for batteries. They announced at least XX months ago they were looking for a US supplier. I think they are now getting half of their felt from a US manufacturer. Hopefully they will tell us more next week" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-26 01:14:55 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements
"I'm not sure all grasp the slide. Look at the sub+title: XX% Cost out as of Q1 XX% Cost out at "volume" ++++ If we assume launch COGS was $1000/KWh the. Q1 was still $360/KWh COGS. But if we are now "at volume" (like I propose) then we are down to $230/KWh COGS. ++++ Thus my theory that very early in Q2 "CM+ with the 45X credit" was achieved and now X months later we are near achieving "CM+ without the 45X credit" and may have already done so" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 16:18:14 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"The US is turning mercantile. China always was. It's a new world every has to decide where they will fit in. Japan just said they were on the US team. Europe is trying to get on the US team. Amazingly I don't know where Mexico and Canada will land. Mexico seems to have grown exports to the US under Trump XX. Canada the opposite" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 17:50:42 UTC 1026 followers, 1312 engagements
"@NPianosi @GrassmanWilliam I think this delivery plus the one earlier in July meets about 1/3rd of September need (lots of guesses there). $eose is scaling fast and keeping a couple months minimum of felt on hand is my impression so I'm guessing this July felt is in support of September production" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 13:17:22 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"Q2 being XXX% higher than any previous quarter is $21mm in revenue. If the felt is in short supply it will impact Q3 not Q2. Lots of felt destined to $eose was brought into the US from South Korea in Feb/Mar/Apr/May. More than enough for Q2 needs. I am somewhat confident that an alternate felt provider is now in place and the drop-off in felt from South Korea is just part of the transition process from the old supplier to the new supplier. Potentially there are XX cubes sitting in that Virginia staging lot and not booked as revenue. At X cubes/$1mm that is about $6.5mm worth. If those cubes" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-21 18:55:41 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"Have you seen my calculation of XX cubes for April Have you seen the serial number tracking table If CMP manufactured cubes are still shipping out of $eose XXX cubes for Q2 is a near certainty. 40+60+80 = XXX cubes for Q2. The ramp is on How do you get to $150mm for the year at a minimum without a significant ramp month to month" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 02:26:30 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"The July XX $eose short report is out. The OBBB was signed July X. The 15th was the day of Pittsburgh Energy Summit. The day after the incredible statements of Nick Robinson. Lots of my personal shares had been returned for a few days around then. Huge volume of shares traded as I recall. My assumption was we would see a very significant amount of covering had happened by July XX. Instead only the below small amount (4.8mm). When will the shorts cover Will they ride $eose to $X $XX beyond" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 13:05:32 UTC 1030 followers, 1578 engagements
"That's RPO. Solid orders with customers planning on taking orders. The RPO orders are likely already in the manufacturing production schedule. That's why I will be looking at that as soon as the 10Q drops. I really hope (expect) to see the XX month RPO at $150mm or more. Without that it leaves me wondering who their Q3/Q4 customers are" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 16:57:55 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements
"Jonathan do you remember how Q3 and Q4 earnings sucked and why $eose has XXX million warrants they mark to market each quarter. When the stock price goes up the liability associated with those warrants goes up. May 31: $XXXX SP June 30: $XXXX SP It is as simple as 150mm * ($5.12 - $3.78) but it is close. That one aspect will be close to a $200mm GAAP earnings loss. Then add on the actual operating loss for the quarter. Maybe $XXX million dollar GAAP earnings loss for Q2 $eose GAAP earnings are meaningless" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:36:48 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@mymorristribe @JordanSolace @TsnycTsnyc22 $25mm and I'm satisfied. Thrilled for me will be 3x Q1. $31.5mm I think there is about a XX% chance the hit that April: XX% of Q1 May: XXX% of Q1 June: XXX% of Q1 Q2: XXX% of Q1 (a XXX% increase)" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 16:47:30 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@goodwillimp @JordanSolace @TsnycTsnyc22 Based on Q4 and Q1 RPO without additional manufacturing release payments in Q2 I don't think $eose will be able to meet the $150mm revenue guidance" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 16:37:17 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 It is NOT as simple as 150mm * ($5.12 - $3.78) but it is close" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:38:07 UTC 1026 followers, XX engagements
"@JordanSolace @primedcapital @MutaliskGluon I think $25m or more revenue and continued guidance to $150mm minimum for the year will be a successful ER. I will be looking deeper but that's where the main market will look" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 20:21:43 UTC 1025 followers, XX engagements
"Now it's $XX billion Question for those that think the Senator didn't ask for announcements to be held for today: What miracle caused $90B in announcements around this event" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-15 13:38:54 UTC 1030 followers, 1033 engagements
"@bert_gilfoyle A NextEra related project is more good news" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-16 02:08:50 UTC 1025 followers, XXX engagements
"Food for thought: $eose Serious thought ==== details ==== The Z3 was launched around August 2023. I guess we all know that. To make the math simple I am going to make up a X MWh battery cube below and talk about COGS and sales price. Sales price I'm going to fix at $250K/mythical_cube but we know it has varied from $200K to $388K for 1MWh of BESS sold by $eose over the last XX months $esoe had the semi-automated line and low volume purchase agreements with their suppliers in August 2023. Let's say it was costing them $750K (in parts labor and mfg overhead) to make that X MWh battery cube they" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 18:50:15 UTC 1030 followers, 1682 engagements
"I'm not. I am finding the 45X PTC credits earned each quarter. It is in the quarterly filings. KWh produced on the main line = $PTC / ($45 * 0.90) Is the formula I used to determine KWh manufactured on the main line. Then I had to pick a MWh/cube number to work with. We have been told: C/4 = XXXXX MWh/cube C/10 = XXX MWh/cube I had to pick something and I picked XXX MWh/cube for my calculation. Could be the wrong choice easily enough" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 03:14:54 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"I'm reviewing this XX month old post from @x_times_1 It was discussing in some detail the Q4 2024 exit COGS. His analysis seems to stand up to the test of time. He had Q4 2024 exiting with a COGS (including the 45X credit) of $134.61/KWh. $eose was delayed X months so his calculation should match Q2 2025 exit COGS. That is very compatible with my recent calculation: Q1 COGS: $270-$45/ KWh My calculation Exit Q2 COGS: $134.61/KWh @x_times_1 calc Exit Q3 COGS: $122.50/KWh My calc I always like it when my calculation fits in with other peoples" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 21:09:03 UTC 1030 followers, 2534 engagements
"If I was NextEra and considering funding entire factories (not unusual in the energy space) I would strongly attempt to negotiate to get the 45X credits just transferred directly to NextEra for all production from those X or more factories. In $eose shoes I would certainly think hard before I walked away from a customer funded factory or two even if they were demanding the 45X credits earned by the factory. FYI: $LNG (Cheniere) built multiple $4-$5 billion CapEx manufacturing lines with X line per customer. I suspect many of the commenters here haven't ever even observed the energy industry" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-06 21:23:30 UTC 1030 followers, 1716 engagements
"@JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 Earnings Gapp earnings They will be massively in the tank Q2 and I hope Q3 and Q4. Josh are you familiar with the effects of marking XXX million liability warrants to market. -$0.60/share or so I think" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:00:05 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"Hates to deliver power faster than C/2 may not even be reasonably possible. For a lot of battery applications even C/2 is too slow. $eose quit even claiming it's a reasonable solution for discharge faster than C/4. For data centers that likely means a huge amount of Li-ion and a huge amount of LDES will be needed" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 03:54:00 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@HungStrikerCptl The ramp was a post CM+ activity. The ramp started in April" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-22 12:49:31 UTC 1020 followers, XXX engagements
"@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 Price on June XX vs price on March XX. XXX million warrants that get to be $200mm more of a liability. That increase in liability lands squarely on GAAP earnings" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:46:11 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"Do we know about this: "That project completed in 2023 and successfully demonstrated its third-generation technology system Eos Z3 at a San Diego Gas and Electric facility in the City of Pala." In Q3 & Q4 of 2023 $eose was shipping Z3 batts from the semi-automated line. This could be accurate. I just never heard of it" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-16 23:52:58 UTC 1030 followers, 1526 engagements
"@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 On the otherhand did you see the great GAAP earnings for Q1 Opposite effect. Share price fell around $X from Dec XX to Mar XX so it added $150mm to the GAAP earnings. Basically meaningless numbers" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:48:40 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"@GenXJerk70 Yep Doesn't get me to $40mm plus revenue for Q2. Might happen but that statement doesn't get me there" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 17:56:11 UTC 1026 followers, XX engagements
"@MorrisBubba The statement by Joe was along the lines of: First we become CM+ with the PTC then a few months later we become CM+ without the PTC. The PTC only accelerates CM+ by a few months" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 06:14:58 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@OBGInvestments I remember when Cheniere ($LNG) was about a $15B market cap (2018/2019). I was much more trusting of my analysis than the analysts" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 12:49:19 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"Weo no one can make a truly educated statement about revenue. But it should be possible to estimate 45X credits. That is reported quarterly. Say $XXXXX per KWh. My estimate is XXX cubes worth of Z3s manufactured. Credits based on XXX MWh / cube My guess is $7.22mm in 45X PTC credits" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-21 12:50:08 UTC 1029 followers, XXX engagements
"Just make sure you heard what I said: - I'm talking about Q3 so X months before we see numbers - I have made no claim as to what "Launch COGS" value is and it is the basis of the calculation - $eose is adding in $10s of millions of line commissioning costs still. That's per quarter. It will keep the reported gross profit from anywhere close to 49%" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 01:31:13 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"I like the guiding wave concept. Not that I understand it but at least it lets me have real particles / photons Wave-particle duality is beyond my brain to comprehend. And I'm an undergrad physics major. I studied this stuff From Grok: +++++++++++ In quantum mechanics the pilot wave concept is primarily associated with the de Broglie-Bohm theory. It goes by a few names including: - Pilot Wave Theory - Emphasizes the guiding wave that directs particle motion. - Bohmian Mechanics - Named after David Bohm who developed the theory further in the 1950s. - de Broglie-Bohm Theory - Acknowledges" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-22 19:01:14 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"@mymorristribe @JoshTradeOption @x_times_1 I only care so I can ignore it Lots of stock pricing models are 20x EPS or similar. $eose won't have a meaningful EPS until the warrants expire in 2032 or so" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 03:52:27 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"Re: "23.3% of sales price" The slide says that at scale COGS will be XXXX% of the launch COGS. Thus if it cost $1000/KWh to make Z3 at the launch almost X years ago it costs $233/KWh at scale. And Joe defined scale for that slide to be X GWh/yr run rate. I am claiming we are very close to that run rate. I don't know what launch COGS was" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 07:26:35 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements
"You guys are crazy If Black Rock has $100B AUM tracking R2K and the R2K aggregate float is $XXX Trillion: Black Rock buys $100B / $3.3T percent of every stock in the R2K. That's 3%. Vanguard will be less than that. ++++ At least half the XX million shares Black Rock bought have nothing to do with R2K tracking" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-18 12:37:37 UTC 1025 followers, XXX engagements
"@Bullstkpicks @bert_gilfoyle The Q2 earnings call will be an inflection point for sure but the Q3 earnings call is the one I am waiting for. It is going to shock the market" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-20 08:58:43 UTC 1021 followers, XX engagements
"Did you ever get a satisfactory guestimate to 1st quarter marginal COGS/KWh I see "ramp expense" is pushed into COGS. I'm not a CPA but that seems weird. This is from the COGS paragraph in the Q1 10Q: "As a nascent technology with a new manufacturing process that is early in its product lifecycle the Company still faces significant costs associated with production start-up commissioning of various components modules and subsystems and other related costs." I'm thinking "materials+labor+mfg overhead" has fallen significantly since then. ie. X - (23/36) A XX% drop for Q3 COGS relative to Q1 for" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-24 18:47:53 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"If $eose has customers for the cubes I think they will be at the top end of guidance. The ramp is real. Cubes are leaving Turtle Creek like never before. The line will be fully implemented in another few weeks and sub-assembly manufacturing is already at least XX% in place. The only reasons $190mm can't be achieved: - no customers to ship the cubes to - no raw materials from suppliers ++++ I think raw materials are good to go. Enclosures seem to finally be in good supply. Tetra has the electrolyte covered for in excess of just Line X fully ramped. A new US felt supplier seems to be in place" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 13:11:55 UTC 1026 followers, XXX engagements
"@asymmetry292 @thehipskipple The FUZES project is very clearly NextEra as the utility and Eos as the BESS. Very non-secret" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-16 20:16:43 UTC 1020 followers, XXX engagements
"@eachus @OfMikeAndMen @DirkBruere @ToughSf @memcculloch I think the most descriptive paper you will find is the Becker and Bhatt paper. IVO Ltd is a for profit Corp and they plan to make money selling their thruster. It is a commercial repeatable design according to them" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-22 11:39:15 UTC 1030 followers, XX engagements
"Reposting from a lessor read reply: Do we have Q2 guidance other than: Q2 2025 will make up for Q4 2024 Q4 2024 was supposed to be around $40mm. I think most have forgotten the guidance. Not $eose fault we have no memory == Real answers appreciated ==" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 15:45:04 UTC 1026 followers, 2303 engagements
"Yeah I'm XX% shares from a $s perspective. My DCA is $XXXX. And the date is Nov XX for the warrants I'm pretty sure. If I can convert 40k warrants at $XXXXX that's about $450K straight into $eose bank account. (Working on making that possible). Doing my part to keep it from all being a cashless conversion" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-19 17:02:20 UTC 1027 followers, XXX engagements
"@NetMelc @HungStrikerCptl City Utilities they gave us both MWh and $s XXX MWh C/6 Was it $73mm (i can't find it right now)" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-22 14:29:13 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"@grantgerke @bert_gilfoyle BlackRock is not Blackstone BlackRock was the recent 13G filing" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-23 13:46:54 UTC 1025 followers, XX engagements
"Anyone going to join me in buying "new" never before issued $eose shares on Nov XX I'm going to exercise at least 20000 of my $eosew warrants Assumes the share price is $XXXXX or more at the close on Nov XX I don't have that much cash so I will sell 20000 of old used shares at the close on Nov XX to have funds to buy the 20000 shares the next morning. Most of us in this community can do similar" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-19 15:57:26 UTC 1026 followers, 3088 engagements
"I don't think $eose provides warehouse services. When your cube is ready it gets shipped. The buyer has to have a staging lot (aka a "lay-down lot"). That is pretty common in construction. That's one reason I think the Virginia cubes we saw were delivered to the customer and not part of $eose inventory by the end of Q2" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-25 21:29:00 UTC 1030 followers, XXX engagements
"I put this $eose (EOS Energy) summary report together with Co-pilot: ++++ Eos Energy Investment Uniquenesses (Strategic Focus Enhanced) - 15+ years of chemistry-first R&D Eos developed its proprietary Znyth zinc hybrid cathode chemistry over more than a decadeestablishing a deep technical moat and positioning itself as a non-lithium alternative for long-duration energy storage (LDES). - Reshoring manufacturing from China (2018) Under Joe Mastrangelos leadership Eos proactively shifted component sourcing and manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania anticipating geopolitical risk and supply" @FreemyerGreg on X 2025-07-19 11:40:09 UTC 1030 followers, 4696 engagements