LunarCrush LLM | creator/twitter::1389455480909492227/posts

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[@Arunabh85992578](/creator/twitter/Arunabh85992578)
"Thoughts on Alchip ($3661 TT Equity). (1) This is an ASIC design company based in Taiwan. No IP no front-end capabilities. They do only back-end design which is a relatively laborious/mundane/low value add portion of ASIC design. MCap = 10.5Bn$"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130308618793198) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"(4) With Tr3 Alchip is back. It's clear from a whole host of checks up and down the ecosystem that Alchip is winning Tr3 - CoWoS orders Accton check Taiwan locals in TSMC Annapurna (AWS design team) checks etc. This is very well known in Taiwan & most US buyside already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130314654396584) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"(18) Alchip lacks front-end IP. So the I/O die for Tr2 cannot be done by them. Recently Alchip announced a partnership with Astera Labs ($ALAB). They specialize in retimers & PCIe switches. It's likely that ALAB will do the I/O die if Alchip gets the compute die"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130343569928333) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"(24) The worry remains on Tr4 win & allocation if Tr4 is won. Tr4 could end up being a 10Bn$ lifetime revenue project so the prize is big. We won't know about Tr4 till end of this year. Alchip has mentioned that they will receive 2nm NRE revenue in Q4'2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130355330756695) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"(26) One thing I worry about is that Alchip claims Tr3 production revenue will start in Feb'2026. Others think that Tr3 will ramp only in late 2Q. So there is a chance that numbers will need to be revised down for 1H but revised up a lot for 2H. Net impact still +ve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130357163766142) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"(3) The company was fairly obscure before its Tr1 win. It had a lot of China exposure (with some shady customers) crypto exposure .the typical ASIC customer mix before HPC became a real thing. This should have been a GUC business - I put it down to Alchip's scrapiness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1966130312699851147) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements


"The whole $MRVL call is such a pump. Rare to see a CEO so brazenly talk up his stock w/o actually saying much. Felt like the whole call was to address @insane_analyst posts on Marvell.but he didn't actually say/confirm anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Arunabh85992578/status/1970910179115102458) [@Arunabh85992578](/creator/x/Arunabh85992578) 2025-09-24T17:56Z XXX followers, 4030 engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@Arunabh85992578 "Thoughts on Alchip ($3661 TT Equity). (1) This is an ASIC design company based in Taiwan. No IP no front-end capabilities. They do only back-end design which is a relatively laborious/mundane/low value add portion of ASIC design. MCap = 10.5Bn$"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"(4) With Tr3 Alchip is back. It's clear from a whole host of checks up and down the ecosystem that Alchip is winning Tr3 - CoWoS orders Accton check Taiwan locals in TSMC Annapurna (AWS design team) checks etc. This is very well known in Taiwan & most US buyside already"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"(18) Alchip lacks front-end IP. So the I/O die for Tr2 cannot be done by them. Recently Alchip announced a partnership with Astera Labs ($ALAB). They specialize in retimers & PCIe switches. It's likely that ALAB will do the I/O die if Alchip gets the compute die"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"(24) The worry remains on Tr4 win & allocation if Tr4 is won. Tr4 could end up being a 10Bn$ lifetime revenue project so the prize is big. We won't know about Tr4 till end of this year. Alchip has mentioned that they will receive 2nm NRE revenue in Q4'2025"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"(26) One thing I worry about is that Alchip claims Tr3 production revenue will start in Feb'2026. Others think that Tr3 will ramp only in late 2Q. So there is a chance that numbers will need to be revised down for 1H but revised up a lot for 2H. Net impact still +ve"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:23Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"(3) The company was fairly obscure before its Tr1 win. It had a lot of China exposure (with some shady customers) crypto exposure .the typical ASIC customer mix before HPC became a real thing. This should have been a GUC business - I put it down to Alchip's scrapiness"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-11T13:22Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"The whole $MRVL call is such a pump. Rare to see a CEO so brazenly talk up his stock w/o actually saying much. Felt like the whole call was to address @insane_analyst posts on Marvell.but he didn't actually say/confirm anything"
X Link @Arunabh85992578 2025-09-24T17:56Z XXX followers, 4030 engagements