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[@optionsly](/creator/twitter/optionsly)
"My highest conviction SaaS long I bought over last week: $SEMR too lazy to write the entire thread right now If i'm wrong: I'll quit SaaS investing coz obviously I have NFI. Touch under X% pos right now"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944788642054168952) 2025-07-14 15:58:39 UTC 1980 followers, 6959 engagements


"@KairosPraxis there's actually two unintuitive concepts but: X. When you pay cap gains taxes matter and X. you never need to pay cap gains"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765270493479221) 2025-07-22 21:06:42 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements


"Man Im so fkn late but my confidence tokens goes up went from high to almost guaranteed. My wife doesnt use insta tiktok snap fb. She asks chatgpt everything"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946589565407637685) 2025-07-19 15:14:52 UTC 1972 followers, 2369 engagements


"Parenting styles by generation Boomer: "Here's a ball. Be back before dark." Millennials: "Be home by X. Keep Snap map on. Text me at 8." Gen Z: Geofence alerts. Heart rate monitor. Drone follow mode enabled"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947057404681892151) 2025-07-20 22:13:54 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements


"@IndraStocks the numbers are absurd. but even more absurd is that trades at like 22x p/e"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945950801341682038) 2025-07-17 20:56:39 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements


"@zoomyzoomm both these names are have diluted and minimal exposure to the core thesis unfortunately"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947091484848865438) 2025-07-21 00:29:19 UTC 1973 followers, XXX engagements


"@KairosPraxis or another way to put it for 2) Suppose SPY grows 10%/yr. A) gives $100k of gains = $50k post-tax B) gives $50k of gains = $25k post-tax pretty insane if you really think about it"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947768064734597523) 2025-07-22 21:17:49 UTC 1980 followers, XX engagements


"exported my raw data from chatgpt had cursor write a python file to parse it into weekly stats used chat to generate the visualization"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946640471872373230) 2025-07-19 18:37:09 UTC 1967 followers, XXX engagements


"IMO decent chance that OpenAI and $goog do a search/data deal. OpenAI doesn't really want to rebuild core data services such as search maps reviews etc. Strategic repos like youtube gmail calendar are all important. Especially if separation from MSFT is top of mind. Google would offer search services for cheap/free to reduce risk long-term"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947027044073869321) 2025-07-20 20:13:15 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements


"I haven't practiced this well; but more I think about it in theory is you're giving up so much expected-value from selling due to tax drag. It might just make sense to never sell any decent company and hedge out froth/beta via puts call sells or factor/beta shorts. XX% tax rate is brutal and a big compounding drag"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947750645341237461) 2025-07-22 20:08:35 UTC 1981 followers, 2043 engagements


"Btw nasdaq-100 did +85% in 1998 Then +102% in 1999"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946067980187480191) 2025-07-18 04:42:17 UTC 1980 followers, 58.1K engagements


"Everyone thinks its late to buy semis etc monday ima buy more; this is ridiculous"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946592144581677483) 2025-07-19 15:25:07 UTC 1965 followers, 1878 engagements


"2021: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; ZIRP Indexes were still "cheap" (in hindsight) 2022: Inflation from stimmy + supply chain shock = Rate hike Tech growth slowed from reopening + lockdown baseline Combination of 1&2 created doom loop (growth slowed + rates = spend less = slower growth etc) Now: 2025: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; Tariffs BUT Multiple rate cuts expected ahead Supply glut from covid overbuild / china deflation Services productivity boom for AI Growth reaccel from AI capex injection into economy deficit spend continues sounds so bulltard but probably"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543028036575667) 2025-07-16 17:56:18 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements


"During the 2022 bear co I was working at tried to negotiate prices down for datadog. They refused. They knew we were stuck. We spun up a large eng team and worked for months on replacing ddog with in-house solution. Extremely painful tedious process. in-house product mediocre too but ddog billing was killing us. At the last few yards datadog saw we were serious. Came in with a XX% haircut on the contract price. We agreed we threw away like all our code which was thousands of engineer-hours. That was pre-AI days ofc"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028419214184548) 2025-07-20 20:18:43 UTC 1980 followers, 2374 engagements


"its the irony of complaining that your customer is not sophisticated when actually it's the seller that is totally unsophisticated. if you're selling any product this is literally support XXX. #1 own it and apologize #2 make them whole (refund or free subscription time) #3 ignore them is fine too"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947075962136625223) 2025-07-20 23:27:38 UTC 1974 followers, XXX engagements


"@JaredKubin Seems healthy and natural imo. This slide says a "3x EV/Revenue" is a "high multiple" at XX% rev growth. $crm is trading at 7x ev/revenue at X% topline growth. "hated" for SaaS seems extremely strong. We could go down XX% from here and still be above '13"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945289272791023757) 2025-07-16 01:07:59 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements


"It's crazy how p/e numbers are wrong in XX% of tools. We don't even know what P/E $CRM or $PINS is these days"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1943076367689748757) 2025-07-09 22:34:41 UTC 1979 followers, 4890 engagements


"Life360 is like a digital dog collar for gen alpha. You strap it on as a puppy and by adulthood you don't even notice it. "Oh yea its normal that my mom tracks me 24/7" -XX year old gen alpha dude"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947053118128378227) 2025-07-20 21:56:52 UTC 1978 followers, XXX engagements


"re: AI & SaaS: the era of raiders. Vibe coded apps are a meme. But moats like "switching cost" are weaker than ever. AI makes it easy to port data code integrations off legacy systems. not just techically easier. There's so much corporate appetite to try something new. Some SaaS cos will see NRR implode. but this isn't a headwind. Its easier than ever for the best companies and products to thrive. When moats erode; castles will fall but the raiders will feast"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947005508294189259) 2025-07-20 18:47:41 UTC 1978 followers, 2239 engagements


"@KairosPraxis going to be overestimated by investors I think. I think closer to 5-10% at most"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946283290824216783) 2025-07-18 18:57:51 UTC 1972 followers, XX engagements


"@ContrarianCurse we both know if chatgpt/gemini etc raised pricing to $1k/month tomorrow you wouldn't blink and you'd put it on the company card"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946600798793908400) 2025-07-19 15:59:31 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements


"@InvestChameleon don't really know what zeta does"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947437775797842402) 2025-07-21 23:25:22 UTC 1979 followers, XX engagements


"Let me paint the picture Google SEO is old. Understood. Saturated. Enter: chatbots. More and more traffic is being referred from chatgpt perplexity AI overviews gemini. Marketers are panicking. "How do I get ChatGPT to talk about my product" Its a tectonic shift. A once-in-a-generation platform change. Enter: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): the new SEO. Enter: SEMRush. Brand new enterprise product. Released to GA this month. Enterprise revenue guide 30M ARR+ growing 200%y/y market to get ChatGPT to promote your product is GIGA-SIZED"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944806758373056817) 2025-07-14 17:10:38 UTC 1979 followers, 1077 engagements


"some first thoughts on ramifications: X. Data center build out doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; GPU doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; no market crash 2027"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944902748207776088) 2025-07-14 23:32:04 UTC 1973 followers, 1813 engagements


"Some takeaways for me X. Froth = top Netscape ipo was August 1995. It was frothy: initially $XX traded at $XX day X. If you sold then; you'd never see that price again. You were XXX years away from the top You would have missed an 8x to the top"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946326966707359807) 2025-07-18 21:51:24 UTC 1979 followers, 3203 engagements


"definitely way more complicated than hitting sell button. harder for microcaps too. but say you had a NVDA position that went 10x and you want to sell some. instead; you could: X. Buy puts on nvda/smh/soxx/qqq X. Sell calls against it (cover to covered call position) X. Short SMH/SOXX/QQQ I mean none are perfect risk free options. but clicking "sell" is XX% of your gains gone lol. (LTCG CA/NYC) when you hedge your underlying is still compounding"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947756670509322440) 2025-07-22 20:32:32 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements


"How much AI impact is actually priced in Semis: AI capex keeps growing 15%/yr for next X years. Market broadly: Basically pricing in zero AI impact"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947468091069501807) 2025-07-22 01:25:49 UTC 1979 followers, 2008 engagements


"@doodlestein what tool is this you can leave it to work overnight thats really cool"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946602814505206148) 2025-07-19 16:07:31 UTC 1968 followers, XXX engagements


"IMO market is XX% blind to AI. There's heavy fog of war and besides the obvious beneficiaries today (semis/power/etc); nobody is making any leaps of faith. (even semis I think plenty of upside)"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947492123575783676) 2025-07-22 03:01:19 UTC 1973 followers, XXX engagements


"@zoomyzoomm not opining on AV piece; I'm just saying the price is not sensitive to this thesis for it to matter much"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947092711666073991) 2025-07-21 00:34:12 UTC 1972 followers, XXX engagements


"We're not built for speed. Rapid change exponential growth: it feels fake. Don't let that bias you. Get used to it. Internet. PC. Mobile. revolutionary but adoption was gradual. Apple after the iPhone: +15% +52% +66% yearly revenue growth. Slow by today's standards. OpenAI anthropic coreweave: +500% to +1000% y/y growth on a huge base. It feels unreal. Unsustainable. Must be a fluke right Zuck building multiple manhattan sized datacenters "Bubble" That's cope. Shit's changing really fast. Don't assume it's fake just because the numbers are absurd. Lots more absurdity to come. Internalize it."  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946239807862251604) 2025-07-18 16:05:04 UTC 1973 followers, XXX engagements


"Profitable Growing Core. Depressed Price. Imminent AI Tailwind. DigitalOcean $DOCN 17x 2026 EV/EBIT (GAAP) + XX% y/y rev growth (and rising) TL;DR 1) Attractive valuation and good core business 2) Catching the AI app wave with accelerating growth 3) Heavy discount to other neocloud/cloud peers DigitalOcean is a cloud provider with X% market share (vs AWS 30%). Traditionally focused on indie devs and SMBs its now shifting toward larger "scaler+" customers while expanding into AI and neocloud services. More details Good Core Great Price: Profitable efficient SaaS infra biz at 17x EBIT with 40%+"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1943352960446271658) 2025-07-10 16:53:46 UTC 1979 followers, 2602 engagements


"@david_katunaric which part should I have improved"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946346150396862623) 2025-07-18 23:07:38 UTC 1963 followers, XXX engagements


"@KairosPraxis 2) suppose you have two options: A) $1M of SPY - untaxed (your rate is 50%) B) $500k of SPY - fully tax free You might think - it's the same NOPE A) gives you 2x the dividend yield"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765994904031430) 2025-07-22 21:09:35 UTC 1980 followers, XX engagements


"An example is something like datadog. The tendrils of datadog would be littered in your codebase. Thousands of different touch points. To migrate off would take thousands of engineering hours. Not just precious time; it could introduce bugs outages lost data and affect your customers. So datadog could raise prices XX% every year and you were stuck. Now AI can easily write unit tests scan each file and make the switches create the dashboards. Does that mean datadog is weak perhaps. Or maybe they feast on competitors: their switching costs are gone too"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947008323188072704) 2025-07-20 18:58:52 UTC 1980 followers, 2689 engagements