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[@optionsly](/creator/twitter/optionsly)
"My highest conviction SaaS long I bought over last week: $SEMR too lazy to write the entire thread right now If i'm wrong: I'll quit SaaS investing coz obviously I have NFI. Touch under X% pos right now"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944788642054168952) 2025-07-14 15:58:39 UTC 1996 followers, 7713 engagements


"@KairosPraxis there's actually two unintuitive concepts but: X. When you pay cap gains taxes matter and X. you never need to pay cap gains"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765270493479221) 2025-07-22 21:06:42 UTC 1988 followers, XXX engagements


"$goog thoughts: Big beat on cloud and beat on ads. IMO basically pristine. Reaction less than anticipated (but up XX% on the month so.) Capex increase taming sentiment BUT AI winning turns capex into a boon. big narrative shift incoming: this closes higher by EOW"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948156056758297029) 2025-07-23 22:59:33 UTC 2004 followers, 1529 engagements


"If the future is "ask chatgpt to book a flight" consumer brand preferences gets disintermediated. You prefer Booking but chatgpt prefers Expedia. AI becomes kingmaker if this takes off"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945902317200716144) 2025-07-17 17:44:00 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"exported my raw data from chatgpt had cursor write a python file to parse it into weekly stats used chat to generate the visualization"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946640471872373230) 2025-07-19 18:37:09 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements


"I haven't practiced this well; but more I think about it in theory is you're giving up so much expected-value from selling due to tax drag. It might just make sense to never sell any decent company and hedge out froth/beta via puts call sells or factor/beta shorts. XX% tax rate is brutal and a big compounding drag"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947750645341237461) 2025-07-22 20:08:35 UTC 1989 followers, 2854 engagements


"Btw nasdaq-100 did +85% in 1998 Then +102% in 1999"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946067980187480191) 2025-07-18 04:42:17 UTC 2004 followers, 58.4K engagements


"2021: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; ZIRP Indexes were still "cheap" (in hindsight) 2022: Inflation from stimmy + supply chain shock = Rate hike Tech growth slowed from reopening + lockdown baseline Combination of 1&2 created doom loop (growth slowed + rates = spend less = slower growth etc) Now: 2025: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; Tariffs BUT Multiple rate cuts expected ahead Supply glut from covid overbuild / china deflation Services productivity boom for AI Growth reaccel from AI capex injection into economy deficit spend continues sounds so bulltard but probably"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543028036575667) 2025-07-16 17:56:18 UTC 2003 followers, XXX engagements


"During the 2022 bear co I was working at tried to negotiate prices down for datadog. They refused. They knew we were stuck. We spun up a large eng team and worked for months on replacing ddog with in-house solution. Extremely painful tedious process. in-house product mediocre too but ddog billing was killing us. At the last few yards datadog saw we were serious. Came in with a XX% haircut on the contract price. We agreed we threw away like all our code which was thousands of engineer-hours. That was pre-AI days ofc"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028419214184548) 2025-07-20 20:18:43 UTC 1993 followers, 2419 engagements


"@JaredKubin Seems healthy and natural imo. This slide says a "3x EV/Revenue" is a "high multiple" at XX% rev growth. $crm is trading at 7x ev/revenue at X% topline growth. "hated" for SaaS seems extremely strong. We could go down XX% from here and still be above '13"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945289272791023757) 2025-07-16 01:07:59 UTC 1993 followers, XXX engagements


"Look at this BRUTAL BRUTAL dotcom chart with $msft you could have sold X years after netscape ipo. a whole X year and XXX% after. and it would never come that low again"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946336206830334121) 2025-07-18 22:28:07 UTC 1999 followers, 2025 engagements


"I think it's clear we bust eventually. entire question is when and how much longer first. nikkei225 had XX years and 400x bull run before the lost decade ndx did 43x in XX years prior to dotcom top"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948803108559356290) 2025-07-25 17:50:42 UTC 2004 followers, XXX engagements


"One big leak for me is selling too early. The bust is always far slower than I expect. And the rise is usually longer than I expect. This is important. Implies you should only sell after the top. When things are going up fast. You can just not sell. Selling moderately late seems easier and more profitable than selling early"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946331738197889277) 2025-07-18 22:10:22 UTC 2002 followers, 2030 engagements


"re: AI & SaaS: the era of raiders. Vibe coded apps are a meme. But moats like "switching cost" are weaker than ever. AI makes it easy to port data code integrations off legacy systems. not just techically easier. There's so much corporate appetite to try something new. Some SaaS cos will see NRR implode. but this isn't a headwind. Its easier than ever for the best companies and products to thrive. When moats erode; castles will fall but the raiders will feast"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947005508294189259) 2025-07-20 18:47:41 UTC 2004 followers, 2265 engagements


"@KairosPraxis going to be overestimated by investors I think. I think closer to 5-10% at most"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946283290824216783) 2025-07-18 18:57:51 UTC 1989 followers, XX engagements


"Not sure what stops $tsm just from raising prices 20%/year for next decade if intc foundry fails. foundries have major pricing power and barely flexed yet"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948747749601804422) 2025-07-25 14:10:44 UTC 2004 followers, 1186 engagements


"@nope_its_lily all relevant critiques but ARKK isn't up 43x in XX years"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948804554423996470) 2025-07-25 17:56:27 UTC 2003 followers, XXX engagements


"@InvestChameleon don't really know what zeta does"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947437775797842402) 2025-07-21 23:25:22 UTC 1993 followers, XX engagements


"Let me paint the picture Google SEO is old. Understood. Saturated. Enter: chatbots. More and more traffic is being referred from chatgpt perplexity AI overviews gemini. Marketers are panicking. "How do I get ChatGPT to talk about my product" Its a tectonic shift. A once-in-a-generation platform change. Enter: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): the new SEO. Enter: SEMRush. Brand new enterprise product. Released to GA this month. Enterprise revenue guide 30M ARR+ growing 200%y/y market to get ChatGPT to promote your product is GIGA-SIZED"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944806758373056817) 2025-07-14 17:10:38 UTC 1983 followers, 1079 engagements


"definitely way more complicated than hitting sell button. harder for microcaps too. but say you had a NVDA position that went 10x and you want to sell some. instead; you could: X. Buy puts on nvda/smh/soxx/qqq X. Sell calls against it (cover to covered call position) X. Short SMH/SOXX/QQQ I mean none are perfect risk free options. but clicking "sell" is XX% of your gains gone lol. (LTCG CA/NYC) when you hedge your underlying is still compounding"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947756670509322440) 2025-07-22 20:32:32 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"America's AI Action Plan: Create futures for compute"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948077369346170994) 2025-07-23 17:46:53 UTC 2002 followers, XXX engagements


"@NerdcapK bro just took the metaculus P50 didnt he 🤣"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948819751096225833) 2025-07-25 18:56:50 UTC 2000 followers, XX engagements


"How much AI impact is actually priced in Semis: AI capex keeps growing 15%/yr for next X years. Market broadly: Basically pricing in zero AI impact"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947468091069501807) 2025-07-22 01:25:49 UTC 1983 followers, 2016 engagements


"We're not built for speed. Rapid change exponential growth: it feels fake. Don't let that bias you. Get used to it. Internet. PC. Mobile. revolutionary but adoption was gradual. Apple after the iPhone: +15% +52% +66% yearly revenue growth. Slow by today's standards. OpenAI anthropic coreweave: +500% to +1000% y/y growth on a huge base. It feels unreal. Unsustainable. Must be a fluke right Zuck building multiple manhattan sized datacenters "Bubble" That's cope. Shit's changing really fast. Don't assume it's fake just because the numbers are absurd. Lots more absurdity to come. Internalize it."  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946239807862251604) 2025-07-18 16:05:04 UTC 2001 followers, XXX engagements


"imo best megas & buyable $goog $meta $tsm $amzn almost buyable $appl everything else above $1T: not a buyer here"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1940476347148886201) 2025-07-02 18:23:08 UTC 2003 followers, 1935 engagements


"Google showed that: X. AI Capex increasing X. AI cloud and apps accelerating X. Ads doing great You understand what that means right"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948159377770471556) 2025-07-23 23:12:45 UTC 2004 followers, 2439 engagements


"I dropped 6bps into OTM $NDAQ calls leaps last year. Normally I'd paper hand but it was so small I forgot. XX bagger so now I have X% delta position in NDAQ"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948777442958831939) 2025-07-25 16:08:43 UTC 2004 followers, XXX engagements


"GME for example. Imagine you bought at $X in 2020. It starts spiking. it jumped 5x to $XX. you know its a bubble. do you sell do you try to time it what's the strategy honestly you just ride it and sell late. most of these things don't deflate that fast. Selling the top tick $XXX is not that important but selling too early (e.g. at $10) is a huge leak"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333422613663993) 2025-07-18 22:17:03 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements


"An example is something like datadog. The tendrils of datadog would be littered in your codebase. Thousands of different touch points. To migrate off would take thousands of engineering hours. Not just precious time; it could introduce bugs outages lost data and affect your customers. So datadog could raise prices XX% every year and you were stuck. Now AI can easily write unit tests scan each file and make the switches create the dashboards. Does that mean datadog is weak perhaps. Or maybe they feast on competitors: their switching costs are gone too"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947008323188072704) 2025-07-20 18:58:52 UTC 2004 followers, 2745 engagements