[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] [@optionsly](/creator/twitter/optionsly) "My highest conviction SaaS long I bought over last week: $SEMR too lazy to write the entire thread right now If i'm wrong: I'll quit SaaS investing coz obviously I have NFI. Touch under X% pos right now"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944788642054168952) 2025-07-14 15:58:39 UTC 1986 followers, 7619 engagements "$goog thoughts: Big beat on cloud and beat on ads. IMO basically pristine. Reaction less than anticipated (but up XX% on the month so.) Capex increase taming sentiment BUT AI winning turns capex into a boon. big narrative shift incoming: this closes higher by EOW"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948156056758297029) 2025-07-23 22:59:33 UTC 1988 followers, 1465 engagements "@KairosPraxis there's actually two unintuitive concepts but: X. When you pay cap gains taxes matter and X. you never need to pay cap gains"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765270493479221) 2025-07-22 21:06:42 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements "Parenting styles by generation Boomer: "Here's a ball. Be back before dark." Millennials: "Be home by X. Keep Snap map on. Text me at 8." Gen Z: Geofence alerts. Heart rate monitor. Drone follow mode enabled"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947057404681892151) 2025-07-20 22:13:54 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements "@IndraStocks the numbers are absurd. but even more absurd is that trades at like 22x p/e"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945950801341682038) 2025-07-17 20:56:39 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements "@KairosPraxis or another way to put it for 2) Suppose SPY grows 10%/yr. A) gives $100k of gains = $50k post-tax B) gives $50k of gains = $25k post-tax pretty insane if you really think about it"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947768064734597523) 2025-07-22 21:17:49 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements "exported my raw data from chatgpt had cursor write a python file to parse it into weekly stats used chat to generate the visualization"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946640471872373230) 2025-07-19 18:37:09 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements "IMO decent chance that OpenAI and $goog do a search/data deal. OpenAI doesn't really want to rebuild core data services such as search maps reviews etc. Strategic repos like youtube gmail calendar are all important. Especially if separation from MSFT is top of mind. Google would offer search services for cheap/free to reduce risk long-term"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947027044073869321) 2025-07-20 20:13:15 UTC 1981 followers, XXX engagements "I haven't practiced this well; but more I think about it in theory is you're giving up so much expected-value from selling due to tax drag. It might just make sense to never sell any decent company and hedge out froth/beta via puts call sells or factor/beta shorts. XX% tax rate is brutal and a big compounding drag"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947750645341237461) 2025-07-22 20:08:35 UTC 1983 followers, 2828 engagements "Btw nasdaq-100 did +85% in 1998 Then +102% in 1999"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946067980187480191) 2025-07-18 04:42:17 UTC 1988 followers, 58.4K engagements "Everyone thinks its late to buy semis etc monday ima buy more; this is ridiculous"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946592144581677483) 2025-07-19 15:25:07 UTC 1982 followers, 1898 engagements "2021: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; ZIRP Indexes were still "cheap" (in hindsight) 2022: Inflation from stimmy + supply chain shock = Rate hike Tech growth slowed from reopening + lockdown baseline Combination of 1&2 created doom loop (growth slowed + rates = spend less = slower growth etc) Now: 2025: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; Tariffs BUT Multiple rate cuts expected ahead Supply glut from covid overbuild / china deflation Services productivity boom for AI Growth reaccel from AI capex injection into economy deficit spend continues sounds so bulltard but probably"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543028036575667) 2025-07-16 17:56:18 UTC 1983 followers, XXX engagements "During the 2022 bear co I was working at tried to negotiate prices down for datadog. They refused. They knew we were stuck. We spun up a large eng team and worked for months on replacing ddog with in-house solution. Extremely painful tedious process. in-house product mediocre too but ddog billing was killing us. At the last few yards datadog saw we were serious. Came in with a XX% haircut on the contract price. We agreed we threw away like all our code which was thousands of engineer-hours. That was pre-AI days ofc"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028419214184548) 2025-07-20 20:18:43 UTC 1983 followers, 2395 engagements "@JaredKubin Seems healthy and natural imo. This slide says a "3x EV/Revenue" is a "high multiple" at XX% rev growth. $crm is trading at 7x ev/revenue at X% topline growth. "hated" for SaaS seems extremely strong. We could go down XX% from here and still be above '13"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945289272791023757) 2025-07-16 01:07:59 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements "It's crazy how p/e numbers are wrong in XX% of tools. We don't even know what P/E $CRM or $PINS is these days"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1943076367689748757) 2025-07-09 22:34:41 UTC 1981 followers, 4890 engagements "Life360 is like a digital dog collar for gen alpha. You strap it on as a puppy and by adulthood you don't even notice it. "Oh yea its normal that my mom tracks me 24/7" -XX year old gen alpha dude"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947053118128378227) 2025-07-20 21:56:52 UTC 1978 followers, XXX engagements "re: AI & SaaS: the era of raiders. Vibe coded apps are a meme. But moats like "switching cost" are weaker than ever. AI makes it easy to port data code integrations off legacy systems. not just techically easier. There's so much corporate appetite to try something new. Some SaaS cos will see NRR implode. but this isn't a headwind. Its easier than ever for the best companies and products to thrive. When moats erode; castles will fall but the raiders will feast"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947005508294189259) 2025-07-20 18:47:41 UTC 1988 followers, 2250 engagements "@KairosPraxis going to be overestimated by investors I think. I think closer to 5-10% at most"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946283290824216783) 2025-07-18 18:57:51 UTC 1981 followers, XX engagements "@ContrarianCurse we both know if chatgpt/gemini etc raised pricing to $1k/month tomorrow you wouldn't blink and you'd put it on the company card"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946600798793908400) 2025-07-19 15:59:31 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements "@InvestChameleon don't really know what zeta does"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947437775797842402) 2025-07-21 23:25:22 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements "Let me paint the picture Google SEO is old. Understood. Saturated. Enter: chatbots. More and more traffic is being referred from chatgpt perplexity AI overviews gemini. Marketers are panicking. "How do I get ChatGPT to talk about my product" Its a tectonic shift. A once-in-a-generation platform change. Enter: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): the new SEO. Enter: SEMRush. Brand new enterprise product. Released to GA this month. Enterprise revenue guide 30M ARR+ growing 200%y/y market to get ChatGPT to promote your product is GIGA-SIZED"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944806758373056817) 2025-07-14 17:10:38 UTC 1983 followers, 1079 engagements "some first thoughts on ramifications: X. Data center build out doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; GPU doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; no market crash 2027"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944902748207776088) 2025-07-14 23:32:04 UTC 1981 followers, 1816 engagements "Some takeaways for me X. Froth = top Netscape ipo was August 1995. It was frothy: initially $XX traded at $XX day X. If you sold then; you'd never see that price again. You were XXX years away from the top You would have missed an 8x to the top"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946326966707359807) 2025-07-18 21:51:24 UTC 1979 followers, 3203 engagements "definitely way more complicated than hitting sell button. harder for microcaps too. but say you had a NVDA position that went 10x and you want to sell some. instead; you could: X. Buy puts on nvda/smh/soxx/qqq X. Sell calls against it (cover to covered call position) X. Short SMH/SOXX/QQQ I mean none are perfect risk free options. but clicking "sell" is XX% of your gains gone lol. (LTCG CA/NYC) when you hedge your underlying is still compounding"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947756670509322440) 2025-07-22 20:32:32 UTC 1987 followers, XXX engagements "America's AI Action Plan: Create futures for compute"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948077369346170994) 2025-07-23 17:46:53 UTC 1988 followers, XXX engagements "How much AI impact is actually priced in Semis: AI capex keeps growing 15%/yr for next X years. Market broadly: Basically pricing in zero AI impact"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947468091069501807) 2025-07-22 01:25:49 UTC 1983 followers, 2016 engagements "We're not built for speed. Rapid change exponential growth: it feels fake. Don't let that bias you. Get used to it. Internet. PC. Mobile. revolutionary but adoption was gradual. Apple after the iPhone: +15% +52% +66% yearly revenue growth. Slow by today's standards. OpenAI anthropic coreweave: +500% to +1000% y/y growth on a huge base. It feels unreal. Unsustainable. Must be a fluke right Zuck building multiple manhattan sized datacenters "Bubble" That's cope. Shit's changing really fast. Don't assume it's fake just because the numbers are absurd. Lots more absurdity to come. Internalize it."  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946239807862251604) 2025-07-18 16:05:04 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements "Profitable Growing Core. Depressed Price. Imminent AI Tailwind. DigitalOcean $DOCN 17x 2026 EV/EBIT (GAAP) + XX% y/y rev growth (and rising) TL;DR 1) Attractive valuation and good core business 2) Catching the AI app wave with accelerating growth 3) Heavy discount to other neocloud/cloud peers DigitalOcean is a cloud provider with X% market share (vs AWS 30%). Traditionally focused on indie devs and SMBs its now shifting toward larger "scaler+" customers while expanding into AI and neocloud services. More details Good Core Great Price: Profitable efficient SaaS infra biz at 17x EBIT with 40%+"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1943352960446271658) 2025-07-10 16:53:46 UTC 1980 followers, 2609 engagements "Google showed that: X. AI Capex increasing X. AI cloud and apps accelerating X. Ads doing great You understand what that means right"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948159377770471556) 2025-07-23 23:12:45 UTC 1988 followers, 2288 engagements "GME for example. Imagine you bought at $X in 2020. It starts spiking. it jumped 5x to $XX. you know its a bubble. do you sell do you try to time it what's the strategy honestly you just ride it and sell late. most of these things don't deflate that fast. Selling the top tick $XXX is not that important but selling too early (e.g. at $10) is a huge leak"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333422613663993) 2025-07-18 22:17:03 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements "@KairosPraxis 2) suppose you have two options: A) $1M of SPY - untaxed (your rate is 50%) B) $500k of SPY - fully tax free You might think - it's the same NOPE A) gives you 2x the dividend yield"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765994904031430) 2025-07-22 21:09:35 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements "An example is something like datadog. The tendrils of datadog would be littered in your codebase. Thousands of different touch points. To migrate off would take thousands of engineering hours. Not just precious time; it could introduce bugs outages lost data and affect your customers. So datadog could raise prices XX% every year and you were stuck. Now AI can easily write unit tests scan each file and make the switches create the dashboards. Does that mean datadog is weak perhaps. Or maybe they feast on competitors: their switching costs are gone too"  [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947008323188072704) 2025-07-20 18:58:52 UTC 1983 followers, 2712 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@optionsly
"My highest conviction SaaS long I bought over last week: $SEMR too lazy to write the entire thread right now If i'm wrong: I'll quit SaaS investing coz obviously I have NFI. Touch under X% pos right now"
@optionsly on X 2025-07-14 15:58:39 UTC 1986 followers, 7619 engagements
"$goog thoughts: Big beat on cloud and beat on ads. IMO basically pristine. Reaction less than anticipated (but up XX% on the month so.) Capex increase taming sentiment BUT AI winning turns capex into a boon. big narrative shift incoming: this closes higher by EOW" @optionsly on X 2025-07-23 22:59:33 UTC 1988 followers, 1465 engagements
"@KairosPraxis there's actually two unintuitive concepts but: X. When you pay cap gains taxes matter and X. you never need to pay cap gains" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 21:06:42 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements
"Parenting styles by generation Boomer: "Here's a ball. Be back before dark." Millennials: "Be home by X. Keep Snap map on. Text me at 8." Gen Z: Geofence alerts. Heart rate monitor. Drone follow mode enabled" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 22:13:54 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements
"@IndraStocks the numbers are absurd. but even more absurd is that trades at like 22x p/e" @optionsly on X 2025-07-17 20:56:39 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements
"@KairosPraxis or another way to put it for 2) Suppose SPY grows 10%/yr. A) gives $100k of gains = $50k post-tax B) gives $50k of gains = $25k post-tax pretty insane if you really think about it" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 21:17:49 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements
"exported my raw data from chatgpt had cursor write a python file to parse it into weekly stats used chat to generate the visualization" @optionsly on X 2025-07-19 18:37:09 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements
"IMO decent chance that OpenAI and $goog do a search/data deal. OpenAI doesn't really want to rebuild core data services such as search maps reviews etc. Strategic repos like youtube gmail calendar are all important. Especially if separation from MSFT is top of mind. Google would offer search services for cheap/free to reduce risk long-term" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 20:13:15 UTC 1981 followers, XXX engagements
"I haven't practiced this well; but more I think about it in theory is you're giving up so much expected-value from selling due to tax drag. It might just make sense to never sell any decent company and hedge out froth/beta via puts call sells or factor/beta shorts. XX% tax rate is brutal and a big compounding drag" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 20:08:35 UTC 1983 followers, 2828 engagements
"Btw nasdaq-100 did +85% in 1998 Then +102% in 1999" @optionsly on X 2025-07-18 04:42:17 UTC 1988 followers, 58.4K engagements
"Everyone thinks its late to buy semis etc monday ima buy more; this is ridiculous" @optionsly on X 2025-07-19 15:25:07 UTC 1982 followers, 1898 engagements
"2021: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; ZIRP Indexes were still "cheap" (in hindsight) 2022: Inflation from stimmy + supply chain shock = Rate hike Tech growth slowed from reopening + lockdown baseline Combination of 1&2 created doom loop (growth slowed + rates = spend less = slower growth etc) Now: 2025: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; Tariffs BUT Multiple rate cuts expected ahead Supply glut from covid overbuild / china deflation Services productivity boom for AI Growth reaccel from AI capex injection into economy deficit spend continues sounds so bulltard but probably" @optionsly on X 2025-07-16 17:56:18 UTC 1983 followers, XXX engagements
"During the 2022 bear co I was working at tried to negotiate prices down for datadog. They refused. They knew we were stuck. We spun up a large eng team and worked for months on replacing ddog with in-house solution. Extremely painful tedious process. in-house product mediocre too but ddog billing was killing us. At the last few yards datadog saw we were serious. Came in with a XX% haircut on the contract price. We agreed we threw away like all our code which was thousands of engineer-hours. That was pre-AI days ofc" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 20:18:43 UTC 1983 followers, 2395 engagements
"@JaredKubin Seems healthy and natural imo. This slide says a "3x EV/Revenue" is a "high multiple" at XX% rev growth. $crm is trading at 7x ev/revenue at X% topline growth. "hated" for SaaS seems extremely strong. We could go down XX% from here and still be above '13" @optionsly on X 2025-07-16 01:07:59 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements
"It's crazy how p/e numbers are wrong in XX% of tools. We don't even know what P/E $CRM or $PINS is these days" @optionsly on X 2025-07-09 22:34:41 UTC 1981 followers, 4890 engagements
"Life360 is like a digital dog collar for gen alpha. You strap it on as a puppy and by adulthood you don't even notice it. "Oh yea its normal that my mom tracks me 24/7" -XX year old gen alpha dude" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 21:56:52 UTC 1978 followers, XXX engagements
"re: AI & SaaS: the era of raiders. Vibe coded apps are a meme. But moats like "switching cost" are weaker than ever. AI makes it easy to port data code integrations off legacy systems. not just techically easier. There's so much corporate appetite to try something new. Some SaaS cos will see NRR implode. but this isn't a headwind. Its easier than ever for the best companies and products to thrive. When moats erode; castles will fall but the raiders will feast" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 18:47:41 UTC 1988 followers, 2250 engagements
"@KairosPraxis going to be overestimated by investors I think. I think closer to 5-10% at most" @optionsly on X 2025-07-18 18:57:51 UTC 1981 followers, XX engagements
"@ContrarianCurse we both know if chatgpt/gemini etc raised pricing to $1k/month tomorrow you wouldn't blink and you'd put it on the company card" @optionsly on X 2025-07-19 15:59:31 UTC 1979 followers, XXX engagements
"@InvestChameleon don't really know what zeta does" @optionsly on X 2025-07-21 23:25:22 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements
"Let me paint the picture Google SEO is old. Understood. Saturated. Enter: chatbots. More and more traffic is being referred from chatgpt perplexity AI overviews gemini. Marketers are panicking. "How do I get ChatGPT to talk about my product" Its a tectonic shift. A once-in-a-generation platform change. Enter: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): the new SEO. Enter: SEMRush. Brand new enterprise product. Released to GA this month. Enterprise revenue guide 30M ARR+ growing 200%y/y market to get ChatGPT to promote your product is GIGA-SIZED" @optionsly on X 2025-07-14 17:10:38 UTC 1983 followers, 1079 engagements
"some first thoughts on ramifications: X. Data center build out doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; GPU doesn't peak 2027 X. thus; no market crash 2027" @optionsly on X 2025-07-14 23:32:04 UTC 1981 followers, 1816 engagements
"Some takeaways for me X. Froth = top Netscape ipo was August 1995. It was frothy: initially $XX traded at $XX day X. If you sold then; you'd never see that price again. You were XXX years away from the top You would have missed an 8x to the top" @optionsly on X 2025-07-18 21:51:24 UTC 1979 followers, 3203 engagements
"definitely way more complicated than hitting sell button. harder for microcaps too. but say you had a NVDA position that went 10x and you want to sell some. instead; you could: X. Buy puts on nvda/smh/soxx/qqq X. Sell calls against it (cover to covered call position) X. Short SMH/SOXX/QQQ I mean none are perfect risk free options. but clicking "sell" is XX% of your gains gone lol. (LTCG CA/NYC) when you hedge your underlying is still compounding" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 20:32:32 UTC 1987 followers, XXX engagements
"America's AI Action Plan: Create futures for compute" @optionsly on X 2025-07-23 17:46:53 UTC 1988 followers, XXX engagements
"How much AI impact is actually priced in Semis: AI capex keeps growing 15%/yr for next X years. Market broadly: Basically pricing in zero AI impact" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 01:25:49 UTC 1983 followers, 2016 engagements
"We're not built for speed. Rapid change exponential growth: it feels fake. Don't let that bias you. Get used to it. Internet. PC. Mobile. revolutionary but adoption was gradual. Apple after the iPhone: +15% +52% +66% yearly revenue growth. Slow by today's standards. OpenAI anthropic coreweave: +500% to +1000% y/y growth on a huge base. It feels unreal. Unsustainable. Must be a fluke right Zuck building multiple manhattan sized datacenters "Bubble" That's cope. Shit's changing really fast. Don't assume it's fake just because the numbers are absurd. Lots more absurdity to come. Internalize it." @optionsly on X 2025-07-18 16:05:04 UTC 1980 followers, XXX engagements
"Profitable Growing Core. Depressed Price. Imminent AI Tailwind. DigitalOcean $DOCN 17x 2026 EV/EBIT (GAAP) + XX% y/y rev growth (and rising) TL;DR 1) Attractive valuation and good core business 2) Catching the AI app wave with accelerating growth 3) Heavy discount to other neocloud/cloud peers DigitalOcean is a cloud provider with X% market share (vs AWS 30%). Traditionally focused on indie devs and SMBs its now shifting toward larger "scaler+" customers while expanding into AI and neocloud services. More details Good Core Great Price: Profitable efficient SaaS infra biz at 17x EBIT with 40%+" @optionsly on X 2025-07-10 16:53:46 UTC 1980 followers, 2609 engagements
"Google showed that: X. AI Capex increasing X. AI cloud and apps accelerating X. Ads doing great You understand what that means right" @optionsly on X 2025-07-23 23:12:45 UTC 1988 followers, 2288 engagements
"GME for example. Imagine you bought at $X in 2020. It starts spiking. it jumped 5x to $XX. you know its a bubble. do you sell do you try to time it what's the strategy honestly you just ride it and sell late. most of these things don't deflate that fast. Selling the top tick $XXX is not that important but selling too early (e.g. at $10) is a huge leak" @optionsly on X 2025-07-18 22:17:03 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements
"@KairosPraxis 2) suppose you have two options: A) $1M of SPY - untaxed (your rate is 50%) B) $500k of SPY - fully tax free You might think - it's the same NOPE A) gives you 2x the dividend yield" @optionsly on X 2025-07-22 21:09:35 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements
"An example is something like datadog. The tendrils of datadog would be littered in your codebase. Thousands of different touch points. To migrate off would take thousands of engineering hours. Not just precious time; it could introduce bugs outages lost data and affect your customers. So datadog could raise prices XX% every year and you were stuck. Now AI can easily write unit tests scan each file and make the switches create the dashboards. Does that mean datadog is weak perhaps. Or maybe they feast on competitors: their switching costs are gone too" @optionsly on X 2025-07-20 18:58:52 UTC 1983 followers, 2712 engagements