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[@optionsly](/creator/twitter/optionsly)
"My highest conviction SaaS long I bought over last week: $SEMR too lazy to write the entire thread right now If i'm wrong: I'll quit SaaS investing coz obviously I have NFI. Touch under X% pos right now"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944788642054168952) 2025-07-14 15:58:39 UTC 1992 followers, 7674 engagements


"@KairosPraxis there's actually two unintuitive concepts but: X. When you pay cap gains taxes matter and X. you never need to pay cap gains"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765270493479221) 2025-07-22 21:06:42 UTC 1988 followers, XXX engagements


"$goog thoughts: Big beat on cloud and beat on ads. IMO basically pristine. Reaction less than anticipated (but up XX% on the month so.) Capex increase taming sentiment BUT AI winning turns capex into a boon. big narrative shift incoming: this closes higher by EOW"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948156056758297029) 2025-07-23 22:59:33 UTC 1992 followers, 1496 engagements


"If the future is "ask chatgpt to book a flight" consumer brand preferences gets disintermediated. You prefer Booking but chatgpt prefers Expedia. AI becomes kingmaker if this takes off"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945902317200716144) 2025-07-17 17:44:00 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"@KairosPraxis or another way to put it for 2) Suppose SPY grows 10%/yr. A) gives $100k of gains = $50k post-tax B) gives $50k of gains = $25k post-tax pretty insane if you really think about it"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947768064734597523) 2025-07-22 21:17:49 UTC 1989 followers, XX engagements


"exported my raw data from chatgpt had cursor write a python file to parse it into weekly stats used chat to generate the visualization"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946640471872373230) 2025-07-19 18:37:09 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements


"I haven't practiced this well; but more I think about it in theory is you're giving up so much expected-value from selling due to tax drag. It might just make sense to never sell any decent company and hedge out froth/beta via puts call sells or factor/beta shorts. XX% tax rate is brutal and a big compounding drag"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947750645341237461) 2025-07-22 20:08:35 UTC 1989 followers, 2854 engagements


"Btw nasdaq-100 did +85% in 1998 Then +102% in 1999"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946067980187480191) 2025-07-18 04:42:17 UTC 1989 followers, 58.4K engagements


"2021: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; ZIRP Indexes were still "cheap" (in hindsight) 2022: Inflation from stimmy + supply chain shock = Rate hike Tech growth slowed from reopening + lockdown baseline Combination of 1&2 created doom loop (growth slowed + rates = spend less = slower growth etc) Now: 2025: Obvious pockets of insane bubble behavior; Tariffs BUT Multiple rate cuts expected ahead Supply glut from covid overbuild / china deflation Services productivity boom for AI Growth reaccel from AI capex injection into economy deficit spend continues sounds so bulltard but probably"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945543028036575667) 2025-07-16 17:56:18 UTC 1988 followers, XXX engagements


"During the 2022 bear co I was working at tried to negotiate prices down for datadog. They refused. They knew we were stuck. We spun up a large eng team and worked for months on replacing ddog with in-house solution. Extremely painful tedious process. in-house product mediocre too but ddog billing was killing us. At the last few yards datadog saw we were serious. Came in with a XX% haircut on the contract price. We agreed we threw away like all our code which was thousands of engineer-hours. That was pre-AI days ofc"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947028419214184548) 2025-07-20 20:18:43 UTC 1992 followers, 2418 engagements


"@JaredKubin Seems healthy and natural imo. This slide says a "3x EV/Revenue" is a "high multiple" at XX% rev growth. $crm is trading at 7x ev/revenue at X% topline growth. "hated" for SaaS seems extremely strong. We could go down XX% from here and still be above '13"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1945289272791023757) 2025-07-16 01:07:59 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"Look at this BRUTAL BRUTAL dotcom chart with $msft you could have sold X years after netscape ipo. a whole X year and XXX% after. and it would never come that low again"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946336206830334121) 2025-07-18 22:28:07 UTC 1992 followers, 2000 engagements


"re: AI & SaaS: the era of raiders. Vibe coded apps are a meme. But moats like "switching cost" are weaker than ever. AI makes it easy to port data code integrations off legacy systems. not just techically easier. There's so much corporate appetite to try something new. Some SaaS cos will see NRR implode. but this isn't a headwind. Its easier than ever for the best companies and products to thrive. When moats erode; castles will fall but the raiders will feast"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947005508294189259) 2025-07-20 18:47:41 UTC 1989 followers, 2258 engagements


"@KairosPraxis going to be overestimated by investors I think. I think closer to 5-10% at most"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946283290824216783) 2025-07-18 18:57:51 UTC 1989 followers, XX engagements


"@InvestChameleon don't really know what zeta does"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947437775797842402) 2025-07-21 23:25:22 UTC 1982 followers, XX engagements


"Let me paint the picture Google SEO is old. Understood. Saturated. Enter: chatbots. More and more traffic is being referred from chatgpt perplexity AI overviews gemini. Marketers are panicking. "How do I get ChatGPT to talk about my product" Its a tectonic shift. A once-in-a-generation platform change. Enter: Generative Engine Optimization (GEO): the new SEO. Enter: SEMRush. Brand new enterprise product. Released to GA this month. Enterprise revenue guide 30M ARR+ growing 200%y/y market to get ChatGPT to promote your product is GIGA-SIZED"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1944806758373056817) 2025-07-14 17:10:38 UTC 1983 followers, 1079 engagements


"definitely way more complicated than hitting sell button. harder for microcaps too. but say you had a NVDA position that went 10x and you want to sell some. instead; you could: X. Buy puts on nvda/smh/soxx/qqq X. Sell calls against it (cover to covered call position) X. Short SMH/SOXX/QQQ I mean none are perfect risk free options. but clicking "sell" is XX% of your gains gone lol. (LTCG CA/NYC) when you hedge your underlying is still compounding"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947756670509322440) 2025-07-22 20:32:32 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"America's AI Action Plan: Create futures for compute"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948077369346170994) 2025-07-23 17:46:53 UTC 1989 followers, XXX engagements


"How much AI impact is actually priced in Semis: AI capex keeps growing 15%/yr for next X years. Market broadly: Basically pricing in zero AI impact"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947468091069501807) 2025-07-22 01:25:49 UTC 1983 followers, 2016 engagements


"Google showed that: X. AI Capex increasing X. AI cloud and apps accelerating X. Ads doing great You understand what that means right"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1948159377770471556) 2025-07-23 23:12:45 UTC 1989 followers, 2329 engagements


"GME for example. Imagine you bought at $X in 2020. It starts spiking. it jumped 5x to $XX. you know its a bubble. do you sell do you try to time it what's the strategy honestly you just ride it and sell late. most of these things don't deflate that fast. Selling the top tick $XXX is not that important but selling too early (e.g. at $10) is a huge leak"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1946333422613663993) 2025-07-18 22:17:03 UTC 1982 followers, XXX engagements


"@KairosPraxis 2) suppose you have two options: A) $1M of SPY - untaxed (your rate is 50%) B) $500k of SPY - fully tax free You might think - it's the same NOPE A) gives you 2x the dividend yield"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947765994904031430) 2025-07-22 21:09:35 UTC 1989 followers, XX engagements


"An example is something like datadog. The tendrils of datadog would be littered in your codebase. Thousands of different touch points. To migrate off would take thousands of engineering hours. Not just precious time; it could introduce bugs outages lost data and affect your customers. So datadog could raise prices XX% every year and you were stuck. Now AI can easily write unit tests scan each file and make the switches create the dashboards. Does that mean datadog is weak perhaps. Or maybe they feast on competitors: their switching costs are gone too"  
![@optionsly Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:16/cr:twitter::1316591974242086912.png) [@optionsly](/creator/x/optionsly) on [X](/post/tweet/1947008323188072704) 2025-07-20 18:58:52 UTC 1983 followers, 2712 engagements