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[@ptuomov](/creator/twitter/ptuomov)
"COMMENTS ON FRIDAYS SHART ON THE FARTCOIN CHART We own X% of a crypto investment bank called Sentora. The investment banking side came from Trident Digital and the technology side came from IntoTheBlock. One of the benefits of this investment is that the main founder (@admff492) regularly and patiently explains to me what's happening in the crypto markets. One important thing to understand is that the crypto market is extremely leveraged. This leverage makes the technical functioning of the market critically important to the price discovery process. The market structure has bifurcated into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1977395039765508486) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-12T15:24Z 4187 followers, 27.5K engagements


"Owenomics on Circular AI Deals: Owen Lamont argues that if there isn't securities issuance then there isn't a bubble. He sees securities issuance as one of the necessary conditions for an ex-ante identifiable bubble. If there isn't securities issuance the valuations may still turn out to be wrong with hindsight. However if the people best informed at the time aren't selling stock to less informed people the misvaluation likely wasn't dentifiable at the time. Because of this Owen does not think that there's a bubble in publicly traded AI-related stocks. Since the circular AI financing deals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979168243190247884) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T12:50Z 4187 followers, 8626 engagements


"Certain type of securities issuance by the company such as convertible bond issuance leads to a persistent increase in short interest and borrow rate. I guided a smart undergraduate student writing a thesis about this and how it changed the subsequent stock-price reactions. That was more than XX years ago though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979331195386122349) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T23:38Z 4187 followers, 1313 engagements


"$1.1B That whole continent needs to start taking the short bus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1978067153568813277) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-14T11:55Z 4188 followers, XXX engagements


"This may in fact be narrowly correct ;) The reality is that there will soon be few excuses for retail investors not only to survive a market crash in the future but maybe to profit from one as well Excuses eliminated the bad performance not so much Some of these ETFs remind me of the War Games movie and the realization that the only way to win is not to play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979293627131277339) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T21:09Z 4187 followers, XXX engagements


"Nonmonetary/circular deals and commercial substance were once focus points of accounting and securities regulators. If the arrangement is essentially a round trip with no real economic change to expected cash flows GAAP says it lacks commercial substance then revenue recognition can be blocked. The SEC used to round-trip or barter-style schemes that inflated revenue without real economics. However here we are trading hot startup shares with liquidation preferences on one hand and far-into-the-future services both of which are difficult to value and have economic turn and substance. And world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979327870519423057) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T23:25Z 4189 followers, XXX engagements


"ChatGPT on the tech bubble XXX circular deals: - Heres the quick primer on the dot-com eras ad-for-ad (round-trip) schemeswhat they were how they worked and how regulators shut them down. ### What ad-for-ad / round-trip deals were Online companies (publishers portals ad networks) would **swap advertising or round-trip cash** through intermediaries so each party could book **gross ad sales** without any real net economics. Typical pattern: Company A funds Company B (directly or via a third party); B buys ads from A; A books revenue; money ultimately circles back leaving little or no change in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979328758843674879) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T23:28Z 4189 followers, XXX engagements


"@SariArhoHavren Yes you can. Go see the executive branch on bluesky XX hours ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979573266617598132) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-18T15:40Z 4188 followers, XXX engagements


""BUT THEY CAN AND DID." A loosely paraphrased email conversion between friends: A: I asked our compliance if I could issue a meme coin called PONZICOIN. They were against it. I think it would be huge. B: You issuing PonziCoin would lead to a major potential liability. .because PonziCoin already exists It's Rishab Hegde's project at You'd be in hot water if you'd issue someone else's coin with a reserved name. Score one for your compliance group. A: Goddamn. B: GodDamn token also exists on Solana network. It's actually moving up right now perhaps because someone snooped your email A: You"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1953410362788757681) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-08-07T10:58Z 4187 followers, 30.6K engagements


"WILL CIRCULAR AI DEALS MAKE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS UNRELIABLE Following up on Owen Lamonts circle-jerk bubble article. I fear that these circular AI deals will make financial statements of public companies unreliable. Consider the following example: Suppose that I am publicly traded company. I decide to sell compute services to a private startup in exchange for private startup shares. This may or may make sense its business judgment and hindsight is 20-20. How should I price the deal though I could value both sides of the transaction at $X which is what I usually sell the services for after"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1979290254117949801) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-17T20:55Z 4187 followers, 6871 engagements


"Hyperscalers are supposedly charging 10x average prices for compute compared to smaller players. The hyperscalers are also those companies that investing into AI startups at nosebleed prices. And the startup buys compute apparently at very high prices. Makes you go hmmm The average price for an A100 in 2020 was $XXXX an hour. Thats now fallen to about $XXXX per hour but the average is being skewed by hyperscalers continuing to charge more than $X when their competitors go as low as $0.40"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1980032953250939298) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-19T22:06Z 4187 followers, XXX engagements


"@stoked_on_waves The point is that if you have an accounting black hole that is the private company conspiring with the public company there are nearly infinite degrees of freedom to manipulate the public company earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ptuomov/status/1980064579741983151) [@ptuomov](/creator/x/ptuomov) 2025-10-20T00:12Z 4187 followers, XX engagements