Dark | Light
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

[@ActuallyClimber](/creator/twitter/ActuallyClimber)
"๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ so much fun one could have with this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979044369970684191) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T04:38Z 20.7K followers, 15.4K engagements


"The market changed. mNAV arb was a huge part of my thesis. In fact it was the whole thesis looking at any of my models. I had compression in every model but not so fast like how it happened. Im also more skeptical about prefs for reasons Ive mentioned even just how unclear it is how the btc/common share yield should be counted. From here it may still do great and outperform Bitcoin. It really should but I have too many concerns personally. Im not trying to encourage anyone else to do anything. My situation is pretty abnormal and I just need to not screw things up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977891270094671922) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T00:16Z 20.7K followers, 74.6K engagements


"I bet Bitcoin would be much higher X months later. It isnt. I bet Metaplanets yield would outpace its eventual mnav compression. It didnt. Perhaps it does great in the future but especially with my uncertainty about bitcoin this cycle admitting defeat and updating my view of the world to match reality was the only thing I knew to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979675635149893899) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:27Z 20.7K followers, 2631 engagements


"The Chief Risk Officer at $ASST has blocked me again ๐Ÿ˜‚. Not complaining. Just funny at this point. Block unblock block. Speaks of stability. Wise choice @ColeMacro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1975680564549026024) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-07T21:52Z 20.7K followers, 24.3K engagements


"$1.07 after hours Ouch. $ASST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976756001828487336) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T21:05Z 20.7K followers, 14.2K engagements


"Tuned in. Ryan and I disagree on some things for sure but hes always been willing to chat and not afraid to share his views. I respect that. Good to see you doing well ๐Ÿซก . A few quotes/takeaways: 22:30 This weird peer pressure for people to be XXX% Bitcoin is one of the dummest things Ive ever heard in my life. 27:25 Amateurs talk ideology and professionals talk allocation percentage. 36:10 People love to dunk on fiat but we should address how incredibly good the financial system is for Americans. 36:40 With Bitcoin theres X dollar wrench attack risks. 40:20 I dont care about not being in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977846837643198516) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T21:20Z 20.7K followers, 25.2K engagements


"Im fine being wrong as much as it takes for me to improve. Thats how Ive always invested. Thats why bet sizing is so important. Always willing to be wrong. Always willing to admit when I was wrong. What is your criteria for admitting youre wrong Timeframe and mNAV or something like that Hopefully you have such criteria"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979668494372528366) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:58Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Thanks for owning that. I know how rough it is. The math behind the practically inevitable underperformance of covered call ETFs is something many people also arent aware of. Just like BTCTCs only job is to outperform Bitcoin people forget that the total return (dividend payouts included) of covered call ETFs should be what matters and with their almost certain eventual underperformance the only remaining reason Im aware of to invest would be for psychological necessity of the payout vs selling shares. I have my parents in covered calls ETFs (mostly SPYI which has some (section 1276) tax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978842218438750259) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-16T15:15Z 20.7K followers, 18K engagements


"@ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Id personally be surprised if MP or MSTR see above X mnav over the next year. Im out sidelined and reevaluating a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979655197896147321) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:05Z 20.7K followers, 17.3K engagements


"Some people enter investments with stop losses. I enter either with smaller bet sizing willing to ride it to zero and limiting my risk to that amount or with a larger size and with falsification criteria where Ill admit failure but at least protect a large part of my investment capital. Knowing (and admitting) that your chance of being wrong is X% when it comes to stocks/Bitcoin feeds into the idea that you should only invest what you are willing to lose. When you view something as a guarantee you can justify investing a huge amount never considering that it might not work out. Even if you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979674805873021332) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:23Z 20.7K followers, 13K engagements


"After solving high level technical problems (robotics/process/efficiency/intuitive human interfaces/safety) in a steel mill for a decade I became very useful. My biggest concern with retiring early was that Id no longer feel like I was contributing to something sizable. Doctors/therapists have tele-therapy which they can do part time. Uber and DoorDash allow people to work when they want. Legal experts can join sites/apps where they can provide expert advice in as limited a fashion as they wish. Someone with a skill set like myself doesnt have these options. Id love to have a part time job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979962100119126211) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T17:25Z 20.7K followers, 9649 engagements


"I cant believe how many people believe black people cant be racist. Its not just randoms on the street. People in my life have said the same thing. When society twists simple truths (we are all capable of the same sins/errors as we are all part of the human race) we justify further division and hatred"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976685775220523107) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T16:26Z 20.7K followers, 11.6K engagements


"(11/15) This is also easier for a smaller company to do as the impact of a company with 1000 bitcoin selling X% (10 bitcoin) in a week to arb XXX mNAV isn't something hard to do from a market liquidity perspective"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977146098449104944) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-11T22:55Z 20.8K followers, 1376 engagements


"Dont think the math works that way for companies like Coinbase or Tesla where bitcoin holdings isnt the bulk of their valuation. Imagine Apple buys X bitcoin and then is at 20000000 mNAV or something. They shouldnt start talking btc/share yield and arbitraging their premium. Also we already have too many Bitcoin treasury companies that dilute shares to buy Bitcoin all fighting for inflows. I thought it would take longer to dry up. I was wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977523131192373745) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-12T23:53Z 20.8K followers, 2650 engagements


"@orangeyield @IIICapital My gut says Apple investors would see the shift in focus and not reward it especially due to the new share issuance that came with it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977533002163929372) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T00:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@AM13978371 XX% isnt a big deal to me especially since money needs a small incentive. I imagine MetaPlanet didnt expect price to come down so low barely above X mNAV. I believe their goal was to increase their stack further before issuing prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977883986530537575) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T23:47Z 20.8K followers, XXX engagements


"@ShortestSeller @CashflowingOptn Im fully aware how many people may laugh to hear Im going the index fund route ๐Ÿ˜…"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977911604470538448) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T01:37Z 20.7K followers, 1522 engagements


"@HashOverCash21 @3xpops Thanks. VOO and VGT are my picks at this point for low expense and decent upside with AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977915455030403188) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T01:52Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@BritishHodl @CashflowingOptn Thanks but if Im going to be overall exposed to Bitcoin I want Bitcoin returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977936635535806694) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T03:16Z 20.8K followers, 1897 engagements


"One way to conceptualize why outperformance is highly unlikely is that it would only be possible if the options themselves were overpriced. They tend to be overpriced (like last November) when the market is insanely optimistic and everyone is buying calls and Implied Volatility goes to the sky. Instead weve seen IV dry up as well as tons of covered call ETFs on the sell side. Simply speaking if a stock goes sideways the CC seller will outperform but if the stock keeps going sideways the IV keeps dropping anyway and closes the opportunity as the market realizes those call options were"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978844583170629934) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-16T15:24Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@bitpokerpix @HermesLux What Im saying is that it works until it doesnt and experts running covered call ETFs fail vs the underlying in total return in the long run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978947001828958449) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-16T22:11Z 20.8K followers, XXX engagements


"I think X mNAV selling or fear of selling could be the story for the coming bear market. Trying to think of other scenarios but that one makes sense from a whats new this cycle that could fail in a largely unanticipated way. People think it cant get worse than X mNAV. For the record I think a small company trading between XXX and XXXX mNAV should seriously consider selling Bitcoin and buying shares to at least increase their btc/share during a bear and raise their liquidation or buyout price per share or survive the bear and hope for days at or above X mNAV afterward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979013023764242755) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T02:34Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@comic @jackmallers I swung traded CEP earlier this year and then stopped researching it. Whats your thought on why they will do well vs Saylor and friends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979160815480524820) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T12:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@HermesLux Thats assuming all future bitcoin gains and counting them as gains today in btc/share. Thats not even addressing how to view the capital stack. Seems weird to count it as btc/common share gains dont you think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979235486469103695) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:18Z 20.7K followers, 2504 engagements


"@AGratefulApe If the company expects to at least 2x the performance of Bitcoin alone over the next decade they would be justified to buy up shares instead of Bitcoin up to at least 1.5x mNAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979243012921208906) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:48Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@ThisiswhyweBTC My thought is this could be the ultimate red flag that this could be a good idea. But ya arb the higher CAGR asset and the stock MUST have a higher long term CAGR than Bitcoin in order to justify its existence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979245296832876921) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:57Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@AGratefulApe Buying their shares is the same yield as buying Bitcoin. It shrinks the denominator instead of increasing the numerator in btc/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979246418175918320) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:01Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"No it burns shares. Just like if satoshi burned his Bitcoin. The company would only buy shares from those who sell shares on the market. Then those XXX million shares or so the company could buy would be retired lowering the total share count but not affecting your share count. Your shares would then be more valuable as there would be the same Bitcoin but less shares so more Bitcoin per share. Of course this doesnt take into account pref holder entitlement in case of liquidation but neither does buying Bitcoin with the money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979247409529262426) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:05Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@b_kochkodin @JesseKobernick I think eyebrows should be raised. Why should investors buy Bitcoin treasury company stock instead of Bitcoin itself if the treasury companies wont even buy their own stock instead of Bitcoin It is the SAME aim at arbitrage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979247822454095875) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:07Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"Stock price support is just a nice little benefit. The main idea is to focus on reducing share count to increase bitcoin per share instead of focusing on buying more bitcoin. The shares get deleted from total share count once bought. I think most people would agree that the common share counts of these companies have exploded which required a lot of inflows to just keep price around X mNAV in the long run. Reducing share count makes this much more manageable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979251138860843144) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:20Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@NFTAreEn Maybe but its all about intelligent leverage and arbitrage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979251369191080066) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@nicoffx @JesseKobernick @PunterJeff Thinking on a per share basis why does XX% more bitcoin or XX% fewer shares matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979251509863837963) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@EternalBTC Ya I have other issues behind this one. Just another way to bring up these issues. Youre right if SMLR or another company issues prefs they will most likely trade 2-3% higher dividend yield than MSTT prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979252415011401781) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:25Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@conejodelacity Huh If burning XX% of common shares has the same yield effect (Bitcoin per share increase) as buying XX% more Bitcoin why does it matter on a per share basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979253370515792075) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:29Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@079art Make it make sense on a per share basis Why does company size matter Perhaps a slightly better dividend on prefs but perhaps worse as theyd require a lot more inflows if they are a larger company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979254558598582578) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@NFTAreEn I see no technical difference. Either way has the same effect on Bitcoin per share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979254804208591285) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:34Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"@stef12345xyz Maybe. The issue there is that during a bear market they will be over their aim leverage from prefs since NAV is lower with bitcoin price drop so when they need to defend X mNAV the most they cant even issue prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979255199253340560) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:36Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"@orangeyield The goal is to reach pref leverage ratio right Once they reach it they cannot sell anymore shares until bitcoin price goes higher. So ALL bear markets would have it virtually impossible for them to issue more prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979256491006669142) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:41Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@IvayloPashov Make it make sense on a per share basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979256689405710810) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:42Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@b_kochkodin @Miguelfdez0 I agree. They are claiming a future Bitcoin CAGR as if it is a known value. In their defense the whole game is this bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979257631496695843) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:46Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"@mattdecelles @PrestonPysh Then perhaps Saylor misspoke when hes said he would issue prefs to buy shares instead of bitcoin if shares were trading under X mNAV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979258049706516707) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:47Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@_mikeinvests @HermesLux Id say after my last broad thesis failed Id rather people see any current views I share through the lens of my recent failure though the tendency is either to believe my next thought must be right OR must be wrong instead of letting it stand on its own feet to a large degree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979269679572226253) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T19:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Fair. Months ago most critiqued their put selling saying why not just buy bitcoin with that money I believe its entirely so they wont have to sell any of that Bitcoin to pay the dividend on preferreds. This is largely (in my opinion) for imagine and a cleaner way to generate the money that will pay the prefs. This doesnt mean selling puts on Bitcoin would outperform Bitcoin. Thats why they arent doing this with much of their raised capital. Only enough to pay the dividends I think. Otherwise its selling prefs to buy bitcoin and selling bitcoin (or common shares) to pay dividends on the prefs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979291019062513969) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T20:58Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@bariksis @TheBTCTherapist @0xReflection Elon tweeting Bitcoin as his safe word in late 2020 and posting a Tesla purchase that ran the price up early 2021 also played a huge role in the last bull market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979633602502779198) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T19:40Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"New mining companies cant popup overnight due to necessary infrastructure and expenses to get the ball moving so theyve had less competition sprout up this year. I could probably start my own bitcoin treasury company if I wanted to. I dont. They sprout up like weeds and have thinned investor inflows. Even with them all buying bitcoin Bitcoin still hasnt really gone up in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979678540409835604) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:38Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@Majikqp @BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman I understand that it might be. Do you understand it might not Cults make it hard sometimes I know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979683125103137015) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:56Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@Majikqp @BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Fair. Thanks for not saying XX% or something which I think most Bitcoiners believe is the case lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979689409114243492) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T23:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@DominicStLaure5 @NolanAbell_ @picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman ๐Ÿ˜‚. Im impressed with golds move and while some people say thats just a precursor for Bitcoin I am not so sure. I dont own any gold either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979727726195212539) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T01:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"As far as $ASST goes what did I leave out or say incorrectly People wonder why Im hard on Jeff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976776786538373190) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T22:28Z 20.7K followers, 13.6K engagements


"I posted recently about XXXX mNAV being a reasonable floor for BTCTC's if they're willing to sell btc and buy shares here and there. I've included my thoughts as well as the basic equations below. ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977146079151038855) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-11T22:55Z 20.7K followers, 18.9K engagements


"I havent touched crypto leverage sites since 2021 and even then was with very small amounts (I was too busy trusting BlockFi and Celsius with a lot of the rest ๐Ÿ˜…). This is a great explanation of auto deleveraging I wasnt very aware of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977374355211317320) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-12T14:02Z 20.7K followers, 11.5K engagements


"@BTCBreadMan @christi61026749 2x for an altcoin being seen as minimal is nuts. I wouldnt 2x leverage an index fund and be able to sleep at night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977603605156028817) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T05:13Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@HermesLux I agree. I have the same issues with Mstr counting the btc/share immediately for CAGR which wont be realized for years assuming it plays out. Also not subtracting the pref holder entitlements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979241104231821720) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:40Z 20.7K followers, 2547 engagements


"@BTCBULLRIDER This would be them buying not selling shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979242040685637791) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:44Z 20.7K followers, 2163 engagements


"@tristrats But if the company exists with the sole purpose of outperforming Bitcoin wouldnt buying back their own shares to increase btc/share make more sense and support the common share price better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979244593557193025) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@b_kochkodin Perhaps lol. At least Metaplanet makes probably most of the money to pay pref interest through their put option strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979244968297312564) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:55Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Selling bitcoin when common shares are under book value makes sense from a bps standpoint and Im all for it as I want to see how it plays out but its also possible that the incentive for each company trading at a discount in the future to do this would be the cause (or at least the blame) of the next bear market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979258736804790593) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T18:50Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"I suppose the scenario would be that the company is the scapegoat for the next bear market and then laws change not allowing the company to rob Peter to pay Paul and then rob Paul to pay Peter with the pref and common shares. Bitcoin acting as an intermediary while being technically a commodity and bypassing their need to be classified as an investment company also could come under more scrutiny. Also prefs are currently demanding around XX% yield which means the market doesnt trust them yet. Everyone says they just need rating agency blessing but Imagine the panic if the company is 25%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979264576735564028) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T19:13Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@IvayloPashov Thanks for pointing this out. And I agree that arbing mNAV discount or premium by itself is only really worth it if its far enough away from zero. The bitcoin vs buybacks is a separate thought but your points make sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979267819196837895) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T19:26Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"I like them both and am not trying to teach them anything. Im just exploring the topic as I always have. Mostly likely some of my criticisms of the space are fair and some are not. A huge advantage Metaplanet has over Mstr is they have income from selling puts on Bitcoin which should be able to cover most or all of their preferred payments. Lower interest rate environment helps too. I have broad concerns which many other people have shared as well. Just like Bitcoin itself has these companies need to be able to withstand strong scrutiny of topics like what is a ponzi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979272494902128915) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T19:45Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"It also reminds me a little of NAKAs claim of Bitcoin yield squared or whatever. Taking things to their extremes to see how they work or where they break is a useful strategy. ASST isnt a useful strategy. Imagine doing maybe X or X deals a year and being lucky if you get XX% profit per deal. Warren Buffet did this strategy when valuations were crazy low sometimes and even he stopped doing it. Bitcoin holdings are an exact value so the odds of a company trading way below its book are low. The odds of shareholders being willing to part with their shares from a buyout offer for less than book"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979307342194770283) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T22:03Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"๐Ÿ˜‚ If anyone truly believes this they should buy the XX strike December XX 2025 (74 DTE) IBIT options. A $250k bitcoin price is around a $XXX IBIT and with IBIT currently at $XX the $XX strike calls cost $XXXX which would grow to be worth $XX if all that came to pass. That is a 67x by end of year. Im not saying it cant happen Im describing how low a probability the market currently views this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979625968718499935) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T19:09Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@LukeDavisgrey @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Did mNAV expand the last time Bitcoin hit new highs No. History isnt that hard guys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979661611653865649) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:31Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@E055Michel1842 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman When stocks do nothing but drop for months there will likely be lots of selling pressure on any upswing. I think the longer we stay around X mNAV the more it solidifies the low mNAV narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979666666192822553) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:51Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman What dont I understand about Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979679216699588976) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:41Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@julysownj @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman You should perhaps have a clue whether they can double btc/share in X months or 6-10 years with the prefs. Might be worth it. Ignorance isnt an advantage imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979680192319943063) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:45Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"@ArdunWard @morpheus7447x @comic Ive also been able to outperform Bitcoin and retire. Nothing broken here fren"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979746351723462938) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T03:08Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"Im not crashing out in a tweet storm Im sharing my views why I feel my thesis has been largely invalidated and answering peoples questions. Perhaps it hits harder since you disagree and thats totally fine and understandable. I assure you these posts arent coming from lashing out or emotional anguish. I get judged if I am silent. I get judged if I am not silent. I realize I cant satisfy everyone not trying to but Ill continue to share what I see and how I see it in as thoughtful a way as I can manage. Interesting and perhaps telling that people are commenting about my posts without actually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978114429494362230) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T15:03Z 20.7K followers, 6883 engagements


"@MattRostosky Tons of people insanely bullish and sharing screenshots of unrealized gains. Also theres a video on my YouTube channel when delta lies which discussed clues with options pricing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978244576851747154) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T23:40Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@ZynxBTC ๐Ÿค Im certainly willing to be wrong. Every investment decision should be based on that I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979662648020217880) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:35Z 20.7K followers, 1871 engagements


"That has been the only game for almost all of these companies for almost the whole time. It is shifting to preferred stock which I have a decent (not perfect) understanding of. Even considering prefs Im not extremely optimistic. Run the math on how long it takes with prefs alone to double the btc/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979669331844694140) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:02Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Its not just that mnav touched X despite crazy high volume before it hit X theres been no sign of bounce even well below PIPE prices. If mNAV had been volatile lots of action and quick moves that would be different. This slow bleed has been relentless. The longer it stays at these low mNAVs the more the market accepts this as a reasonable valuation. It took a lot for me to throw in the towel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979745179276861779) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T03:03Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@McJohnaldson @Captain_Bhab Im not sure but Im also nervous with bitcoin having gone sideways for almost a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979752706492465346) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T03:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"This should be the strongest of X years. We still havent even doubled the highs from over X years ago. Thats not even compensating for inflation or comparing to index fund returns. Bitcoin is becoming less and less worth the risk to me given the quickly diminishing returns. Perhaps its about to jump like crazy and Im naive. This is just my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979755166317355208) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T03:43Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@MSteelgrave @sunny051488 @ColeMacro I think the PIPE price is in the lower $X range but dont remember it exactly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1975711654542192834) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-07T23:55Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Worth a read. My feelings are mixed but I largely agree with Jesse that mNAV arb through share dilution may be a dying game. My views have changed on this over time though Ive viewed this as inevitable in the long term. People often say things that make zero sense like mNAV should trade like a PE ratio. No ๐Ÿ˜‚. MNAV is basically price to book ratio so price to book should trade like price to earnings Its complicated since Bitcoin is the book. Since an investment/holding is the book and it usually trades at a premium or discount to holdings it resembles a close end fund. Though it has earnings."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1975936885127033313) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-08T14:50Z 20.7K followers, 22.6K engagements


"Do you think the Semler deal closes Has it already or could it still be stopped I dont see why SMLR investors or board would want asst shares if its now under the SMLR stock price. I dont care about the dream team. I care about execution. When NAKA dropped from $XX to $X with bitcoin near highs how does that look When Im hearing that Matt Cole gets $XX million worth of shares in a few months it sounds like he has incentive to have price lower. When I see misleading headlines about them buying SMLR for $XX thats not helpful. When I see how easily Jeff W blocks those who disagree with him thats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976775408470327718) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T22:22Z 20.7K followers, 15.3K engagements


"Agreed. PIPES wayyyy below market price is the simplest red flag. ๐Ÿšฉ For NAKA Bailey is a walking red flag For ASST the moment they hired Jeff I knew hope was lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977852013246316700) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T21:40Z 20.7K followers, 25.5K engagements


"@OnlyOChan @samironthemove Likely exiting. I also dont need home runs I just need to not screw things up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977869771610751201) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T22:51Z 20.7K followers, 16.9K engagements


"@CashflowingOptn Ill probably exit and be index funds some options some cash and maybe some bitcoin exposure (perhaps 5-10%). Im retired and my one duty is to not screw that up so playing it safe is the goal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977909140631543867) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T01:27Z 20.7K followers, 16.6K engagements


"@3xpops Thanks. Dont laugh too hard but Ill probably be mostly index funds some options some cash and maybe 5-10% Bitcoin or Bitcoin treasury companies. I may keep some MetaPlanet and H100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977911411763257471) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T01:36Z 20.7K followers, 2022 engagements


"I really dont know ๐Ÿ˜…. Im not saying the top for Bitcoin is in this cycle but pretending it was lets say Bitcoin dropped to 50k and Metaplanet dropped to XXX mNAV and didnt really get any yield between now and then. Metaplanet would be $XXXX. Im by no means saying that would happen. I just know I like to buy when everyone is completely panicked and Bitcoin is still strong for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977930530587832660) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T02:52Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@comic @RealJimChanos Truth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978189232888779001) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T20:00Z 20.7K followers, 2923 engagements


"Im just not willing to hold in cold storage. I dont miss the days of transferring Bitcoin and worrying that a single part of the key may be typed incorrectly. Im fine being part of society which comes with some centralized things like deeds to houses etc which dont vanish with a simple error or electronics failure. Perhaps my concerns are outdated. Wrench attack is my other huge concern as my anonymity isnt guaranteed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979690317226905661) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T23:25Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@DismalDefi @picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Bitcoin price action isnt a Bitcoin thing Choice A: call someone dumb. Choice B: actually have a conversation if youre bothering to converse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979690948616687829) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T23:27Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Ugh. Im sharing my honest views like Ive always tried to do. If I hold my stock and talk about it Im a shill. If I dont hold the stock (and I am not short in anyway either) Im a nuisance. You can choose to follow me or not or call me out however you like. I did not think it was likely at all that Bitcoin would still be this low AND that mNAV would have dropped to X which it never has before. If I viewed this as a trade I would have sold at $XX. My views have changed for what I believe are reasonable reasons. The stock is already at X mnav so Im not sure what your concern is with me sharing my"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979693150521180503) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T23:36Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Please watch and share this video I made XX years ago if you can. If you disagree lets talk about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1975719253450908154) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-08T00:25Z 20.7K followers, 37.3K engagements


"My thesis was that MetaPlanets mNAV would compress to X or near X but what changed is that happened way quicker than I expected. When the facts change I have to try to learn from them own up to my errors but more importantly try to understand them. The next 2-4x of their btc/share will most likely be a lot more of an uphill climb now. The broad view of any of these companies is having a better return than Bitcoin itself. From these prices I think its very likely they outperform Bitcoin and as many people expect Bitcoin to 100x in XX years any return on top of that is insane. All of that being"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976075072730173498) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-08T23:59Z 20.7K followers, 55.9K engagements


"I replaced the Metaplanet dojo link with my mostly Metaplanet YouTube link so that critique is silly. Im rarely on discord anymore so didnt make much sense. I was never an early investor in Metaplanet. Late April 2025 isnt early. Im now pretending these companies have risk Ive shared this for a long time. Months ago arguing with people and I clearly would point out that high mNAV is both an asset and a liability. Ive also been unwavering in my belief that these companies would trade close to X mNAV long term. I was very wrong on how the rest of 2025 would go and have been openly saying that."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976495666202374619) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T03:51Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@satoshi132009 @RN72686 Im still an investor in Metaplanet and H100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976519036402819238) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-10T05:23Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@Michael36X I love it too. Wish theyd make a higher quality movie now. I liked the personal growth being trapped in prison while learning how to conquer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1976841040943628335) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-11T02:43Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"A company that holds X Bitcoin trades at a Bitcoin mNAV of infinity. Stop siting Tesla or even Coinbase mNAVs. The idea of encouraging traditional companies to not just buy bitcoin but to dump common shares on the market is silly. Even just the Bitcoin treasury companies we have now are struggling enough to absorb new shares and offerings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977759714764014012) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-13T15:33Z 20.7K followers, 12.6K engagements


"Why did my MetaPlanet models fail See below. Could I be wrong again Of course. MNAV may bounce. Its not something Simon or Dylan or any of us can control. I have the utmost respect for them. All my models were based on mNAV premium arb before eventual compression to X but the compression occurred very quickly. Tons of new companies didnt help as everyone fought for inflows. I did great buying MSTR leaps late 2022 within a day of the low. I did great calling the top in Nov a day before it hit. Ive also made a lot of mistakes (celsius/ BlockFi/voyager) and have done my best to be transparent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1977905887952949730) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T01:14Z 20.7K followers, 107.6K engagements


"Some say I should have announced when I started to doubt the thesis. Im just not sure when that was as there should always be some level of doubt of ones own thesis. That is part of what keeps us from going overboard and investing more than we can risk (or stomach) losing. Also the moral dilemma of announcing pessimism and potentially contributing further to downward pressure. Luckily Im sharing my doubt when stock premium is at zero so deflating premium isnt something Im worried about. The company also has MSW paused so any downward pressure due to my transparency wont affect their ability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978101901817270766) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-14T14:13Z 20.7K followers, 24.7K engagements


"Decent chance to me. If anyone is unwilling to assign that possibility a probability they are the monkey sitting with its ears covered. Thats why I had to get out of Metaplanet recently and am slowly exiting elsewhere. It wasnt just the failure of yield from mNAV arb to outpace the mNAV compression. Also most people dont seem to have any ideas how the next bear market may unfold. Didnt Saylor say months ago that winter wasnt coming back or something Insane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1978994692441178557) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T01:21Z 20.7K followers, 5033 engagements


"Haha ya. I joke because that was how people labeled me when I said I was getting out of Metaplanet. The guy who is X% Bitcoin cant understand why those non-Bitcoiners with X% allocated can justify their low allocation. The guy at XX% looks down on the X% dude thinking how ignorant someone must be to not be at least X% invested in Bitcoin. The dude with XX% claims anyone who is more in fiat than Bitcoin must not be a real Bitcoiner. The guy with XXX% invested in Bitcoin cant understand why anyone even touches dirty fiat anymore as they must not be True Believers and dare not claim the title."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979026049670263121) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T03:25Z 20.7K followers, 5332 engagements


"One potential issue with the thought experiment though Id like to model this out sometime to verify Im not missing something basic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979268044125016129) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T19:27Z 20.7K followers, 6160 engagements


"@picdoc581 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Mstr didnt have XXX competitors until recently. The space is absolutely flooded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979667421633106013) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T21:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@julysownj @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman But have you even ran the math on how long it takes for them to double btc/share with prefs Assuming they only issue up to XX% of NAV. I have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979676101770359271) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:28Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"My thesis was that Bitcoin would go up a lot this year. It didnt. My thesis was that MetaPlanet yield would outpace mnav compression. It hasnt over the past X months. My thesis was that X mNAV prices were inevitable but perhaps a year away or not until the next bear market. I was wrong there too. That doesnt mean all these things cant correct themselves in the future but for the period Ive been a stock holder my criteria for success have all failed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979676666155749668) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:31Z 20.7K followers, 1147 engagements


"Sorry that would be $8k a month and thats before taxes. Much less if you want your assets to grow instead of taking out every gain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979709005938532682) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T00:39Z 20.7K followers, 15.6K engagements


"@jaxzxu @McJohnaldson @Captain_Bhab I dont see it staying the same but the halving and price run-up has drawn investors in with the hope of outsized returns. Returns are diminishing (most likely) and I think many people will lose interest. Weve seen some OGs sell their whole position this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979906376714375421) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T13:43Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements


"@Ys0Complicated So basically XXX% in bitcoin No thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979907624473637370) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T13:48Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"Dealing in XX baggers (only buying stocks you believe will 10x) is a way to think about investments logarithmically. So many people chase the next XX% or even XXX% which is not usually life changing. Bitcoin is a 10x (and more) from here. I believe MetaPlanet $MPTLF is a 10x (and more) from here in btc/share. Combined thats 100x A double 10x is insanely rare. You have to look at pretty early investors in tech companies or Bitcoin OGs to find it. Game plan for 100x When Bitcoin is around $1M and MetaPlanet has over 100000 Bitcoin I believe the stock will be 100x from here. Add X zeroes. Thats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1919755710553870632) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-05-06T14:06Z 20.7K followers, 14.9K engagements


"Watching now. $H100 $HOGPF / $GS9. Some notes: @Sanderandersenn is now Executive Chairman (from CEO) @Wiik_Johannes is now CEO (from COO) Going from X Bitcoin to 1000+ in a few short months has been incredible. XXX% Bitcoin yield this quarter Bitcoin denominated convertible bonds with STOKR is a likely upcoming move to increase Bitcoin holdings potentially with a unique structure. Weekly PIPES based on current stock price has worked well so far but as the company is getting larger shifting to other capital raising methods will make sense. Preferred stock is a huge goal. Even private placed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1971275582643015838) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-09-25T18:08Z 20.7K followers, 21.8K engagements


"Simple thought experiment with preferred stock for Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The idea is to arbitrage the potential XX% CAGR vs the dividend paid to pref holders around 5-10%. If a treasury company is trading at X mNAV and the whole idea of these companies is to outperform Bitcoin (have a higher CAGR) should the companies instead sell prefs to raise money and buy their own shares instead of Bitcoin Buy the thing that is expected to perform better and from inside the company one would hope the companys common shares are expected to outperform especially if trading around book value now. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979240703323705679) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-17T17:38Z 20.7K followers, 29.5K engagements


"@picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Thats fair. I believe my thesis on Bitcoin is changing despite having done 1000 hours of research since 2016. Im the guy they claim doesnt exist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979681809215762645) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T22:51Z 20.7K followers, 3689 engagements


"Everyone seems to believe its a guarantee so much so that 100s of new companies have entered the space to provide yield on top of Bitcoin (similar to what drew in many of us in 2020) yet Bitcoin price has gone sideways in 2025 which should be the most bullish of the X years. Currently its greatly underperformed 2024 and has yet to double highs from 2021 especially when inflation adjusted. Hype and retail cycles are the expectation and terms like Game Theory mNAV and financial engineering are used as buzz words. When youre kicked out of the cult for becoming critical despite Bitcoins returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979688813791269022) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-18T23:19Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"I think everything is supposed to be good for Bitcoin so Im sure this is fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979722071774245209) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T01:31Z 20.7K followers, 10.5K engagements


"@satoshichapo Maybe in todays prices but unless you let your retirement assets grow that 8k a month before tax health insurance etc will be worth less and less in X years X years XX years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979908051776745975) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T13:50Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements


"@marycatedelvey He beat a girl and he liked it ๐Ÿคฆโ™‚. The beating will continue until the woke wake up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979929453246427360) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T15:15Z 20.7K followers, 24.8K engagements


"Thats probably a good idea. Part of the issue is finding the few people that would be willing to give me a chance at any specific plant. I have an immense track record. Often these companies pay big money for experts who rarely solve problems and essentially milk the same dozen problems for years claiming progress and expertise with little signs of either. I like the idea of dont pay me unless/until I solve it. I love simplifying the process as well which also goes against what most engineers try to do. Similar to how Elon looks at the process"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ActuallyClimber/status/1979970826880364696) [@ActuallyClimber](/creator/x/ActuallyClimber) 2025-10-19T18:00Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@ActuallyClimber "๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ so much fun one could have with this"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T04:38Z 20.7K followers, 15.4K engagements

"The market changed. mNAV arb was a huge part of my thesis. In fact it was the whole thesis looking at any of my models. I had compression in every model but not so fast like how it happened. Im also more skeptical about prefs for reasons Ive mentioned even just how unclear it is how the btc/common share yield should be counted. From here it may still do great and outperform Bitcoin. It really should but I have too many concerns personally. Im not trying to encourage anyone else to do anything. My situation is pretty abnormal and I just need to not screw things up"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T00:16Z 20.7K followers, 74.6K engagements

"I bet Bitcoin would be much higher X months later. It isnt. I bet Metaplanets yield would outpace its eventual mnav compression. It didnt. Perhaps it does great in the future but especially with my uncertainty about bitcoin this cycle admitting defeat and updating my view of the world to match reality was the only thing I knew to do"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:27Z 20.7K followers, 2631 engagements

"The Chief Risk Officer at $ASST has blocked me again ๐Ÿ˜‚. Not complaining. Just funny at this point. Block unblock block. Speaks of stability. Wise choice @ColeMacro"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-07T21:52Z 20.7K followers, 24.3K engagements

"$1.07 after hours Ouch. $ASST"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T21:05Z 20.7K followers, 14.2K engagements

"Tuned in. Ryan and I disagree on some things for sure but hes always been willing to chat and not afraid to share his views. I respect that. Good to see you doing well ๐Ÿซก . A few quotes/takeaways: 22:30 This weird peer pressure for people to be XXX% Bitcoin is one of the dummest things Ive ever heard in my life. 27:25 Amateurs talk ideology and professionals talk allocation percentage. 36:10 People love to dunk on fiat but we should address how incredibly good the financial system is for Americans. 36:40 With Bitcoin theres X dollar wrench attack risks. 40:20 I dont care about not being in"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T21:20Z 20.7K followers, 25.2K engagements

"Im fine being wrong as much as it takes for me to improve. Thats how Ive always invested. Thats why bet sizing is so important. Always willing to be wrong. Always willing to admit when I was wrong. What is your criteria for admitting youre wrong Timeframe and mNAV or something like that Hopefully you have such criteria"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:58Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Thanks for owning that. I know how rough it is. The math behind the practically inevitable underperformance of covered call ETFs is something many people also arent aware of. Just like BTCTCs only job is to outperform Bitcoin people forget that the total return (dividend payouts included) of covered call ETFs should be what matters and with their almost certain eventual underperformance the only remaining reason Im aware of to invest would be for psychological necessity of the payout vs selling shares. I have my parents in covered calls ETFs (mostly SPYI which has some (section 1276) tax"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-16T15:15Z 20.7K followers, 18K engagements

"@ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Id personally be surprised if MP or MSTR see above X mnav over the next year. Im out sidelined and reevaluating a lot"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:05Z 20.7K followers, 17.3K engagements

"Some people enter investments with stop losses. I enter either with smaller bet sizing willing to ride it to zero and limiting my risk to that amount or with a larger size and with falsification criteria where Ill admit failure but at least protect a large part of my investment capital. Knowing (and admitting) that your chance of being wrong is X% when it comes to stocks/Bitcoin feeds into the idea that you should only invest what you are willing to lose. When you view something as a guarantee you can justify investing a huge amount never considering that it might not work out. Even if you"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:23Z 20.7K followers, 13K engagements

"After solving high level technical problems (robotics/process/efficiency/intuitive human interfaces/safety) in a steel mill for a decade I became very useful. My biggest concern with retiring early was that Id no longer feel like I was contributing to something sizable. Doctors/therapists have tele-therapy which they can do part time. Uber and DoorDash allow people to work when they want. Legal experts can join sites/apps where they can provide expert advice in as limited a fashion as they wish. Someone with a skill set like myself doesnt have these options. Id love to have a part time job"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T17:25Z 20.7K followers, 9649 engagements

"I cant believe how many people believe black people cant be racist. Its not just randoms on the street. People in my life have said the same thing. When society twists simple truths (we are all capable of the same sins/errors as we are all part of the human race) we justify further division and hatred"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T16:26Z 20.7K followers, 11.6K engagements

"(11/15) This is also easier for a smaller company to do as the impact of a company with 1000 bitcoin selling X% (10 bitcoin) in a week to arb XXX mNAV isn't something hard to do from a market liquidity perspective"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-11T22:55Z 20.8K followers, 1376 engagements

"Dont think the math works that way for companies like Coinbase or Tesla where bitcoin holdings isnt the bulk of their valuation. Imagine Apple buys X bitcoin and then is at 20000000 mNAV or something. They shouldnt start talking btc/share yield and arbitraging their premium. Also we already have too many Bitcoin treasury companies that dilute shares to buy Bitcoin all fighting for inflows. I thought it would take longer to dry up. I was wrong"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-12T23:53Z 20.8K followers, 2650 engagements

"@orangeyield @IIICapital My gut says Apple investors would see the shift in focus and not reward it especially due to the new share issuance that came with it"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T00:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@AM13978371 XX% isnt a big deal to me especially since money needs a small incentive. I imagine MetaPlanet didnt expect price to come down so low barely above X mNAV. I believe their goal was to increase their stack further before issuing prefs"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T23:47Z 20.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@ShortestSeller @CashflowingOptn Im fully aware how many people may laugh to hear Im going the index fund route ๐Ÿ˜…"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T01:37Z 20.7K followers, 1522 engagements

"@HashOverCash21 @3xpops Thanks. VOO and VGT are my picks at this point for low expense and decent upside with AI"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T01:52Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@BritishHodl @CashflowingOptn Thanks but if Im going to be overall exposed to Bitcoin I want Bitcoin returns"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T03:16Z 20.8K followers, 1897 engagements

"One way to conceptualize why outperformance is highly unlikely is that it would only be possible if the options themselves were overpriced. They tend to be overpriced (like last November) when the market is insanely optimistic and everyone is buying calls and Implied Volatility goes to the sky. Instead weve seen IV dry up as well as tons of covered call ETFs on the sell side. Simply speaking if a stock goes sideways the CC seller will outperform but if the stock keeps going sideways the IV keeps dropping anyway and closes the opportunity as the market realizes those call options were"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-16T15:24Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@bitpokerpix @HermesLux What Im saying is that it works until it doesnt and experts running covered call ETFs fail vs the underlying in total return in the long run"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-16T22:11Z 20.8K followers, XXX engagements

"I think X mNAV selling or fear of selling could be the story for the coming bear market. Trying to think of other scenarios but that one makes sense from a whats new this cycle that could fail in a largely unanticipated way. People think it cant get worse than X mNAV. For the record I think a small company trading between XXX and XXXX mNAV should seriously consider selling Bitcoin and buying shares to at least increase their btc/share during a bear and raise their liquidation or buyout price per share or survive the bear and hope for days at or above X mNAV afterward"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T02:34Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@comic @jackmallers I swung traded CEP earlier this year and then stopped researching it. Whats your thought on why they will do well vs Saylor and friends"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T12:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@HermesLux Thats assuming all future bitcoin gains and counting them as gains today in btc/share. Thats not even addressing how to view the capital stack. Seems weird to count it as btc/common share gains dont you think"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:18Z 20.7K followers, 2504 engagements

"@AGratefulApe If the company expects to at least 2x the performance of Bitcoin alone over the next decade they would be justified to buy up shares instead of Bitcoin up to at least 1.5x mNAV"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:48Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@ThisiswhyweBTC My thought is this could be the ultimate red flag that this could be a good idea. But ya arb the higher CAGR asset and the stock MUST have a higher long term CAGR than Bitcoin in order to justify its existence"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:57Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@AGratefulApe Buying their shares is the same yield as buying Bitcoin. It shrinks the denominator instead of increasing the numerator in btc/share"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:01Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"No it burns shares. Just like if satoshi burned his Bitcoin. The company would only buy shares from those who sell shares on the market. Then those XXX million shares or so the company could buy would be retired lowering the total share count but not affecting your share count. Your shares would then be more valuable as there would be the same Bitcoin but less shares so more Bitcoin per share. Of course this doesnt take into account pref holder entitlement in case of liquidation but neither does buying Bitcoin with the money"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:05Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@b_kochkodin @JesseKobernick I think eyebrows should be raised. Why should investors buy Bitcoin treasury company stock instead of Bitcoin itself if the treasury companies wont even buy their own stock instead of Bitcoin It is the SAME aim at arbitrage"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:07Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"Stock price support is just a nice little benefit. The main idea is to focus on reducing share count to increase bitcoin per share instead of focusing on buying more bitcoin. The shares get deleted from total share count once bought. I think most people would agree that the common share counts of these companies have exploded which required a lot of inflows to just keep price around X mNAV in the long run. Reducing share count makes this much more manageable"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:20Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@NFTAreEn Maybe but its all about intelligent leverage and arbitrage"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@nicoffx @JesseKobernick @PunterJeff Thinking on a per share basis why does XX% more bitcoin or XX% fewer shares matter"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@EternalBTC Ya I have other issues behind this one. Just another way to bring up these issues. Youre right if SMLR or another company issues prefs they will most likely trade 2-3% higher dividend yield than MSTT prefs"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:25Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@conejodelacity Huh If burning XX% of common shares has the same yield effect (Bitcoin per share increase) as buying XX% more Bitcoin why does it matter on a per share basis"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:29Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@079art Make it make sense on a per share basis Why does company size matter Perhaps a slightly better dividend on prefs but perhaps worse as theyd require a lot more inflows if they are a larger company"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@NFTAreEn I see no technical difference. Either way has the same effect on Bitcoin per share"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:34Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"@stef12345xyz Maybe. The issue there is that during a bear market they will be over their aim leverage from prefs since NAV is lower with bitcoin price drop so when they need to defend X mNAV the most they cant even issue prefs"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:36Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"@orangeyield The goal is to reach pref leverage ratio right Once they reach it they cannot sell anymore shares until bitcoin price goes higher. So ALL bear markets would have it virtually impossible for them to issue more prefs"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:41Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@IvayloPashov Make it make sense on a per share basis"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:42Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@b_kochkodin @Miguelfdez0 I agree. They are claiming a future Bitcoin CAGR as if it is a known value. In their defense the whole game is this bet"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:46Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"@mattdecelles @PrestonPysh Then perhaps Saylor misspoke when hes said he would issue prefs to buy shares instead of bitcoin if shares were trading under X mNAV"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:47Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@_mikeinvests @HermesLux Id say after my last broad thesis failed Id rather people see any current views I share through the lens of my recent failure though the tendency is either to believe my next thought must be right OR must be wrong instead of letting it stand on its own feet to a large degree"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T19:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Fair. Months ago most critiqued their put selling saying why not just buy bitcoin with that money I believe its entirely so they wont have to sell any of that Bitcoin to pay the dividend on preferreds. This is largely (in my opinion) for imagine and a cleaner way to generate the money that will pay the prefs. This doesnt mean selling puts on Bitcoin would outperform Bitcoin. Thats why they arent doing this with much of their raised capital. Only enough to pay the dividends I think. Otherwise its selling prefs to buy bitcoin and selling bitcoin (or common shares) to pay dividends on the prefs"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T20:58Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@bariksis @TheBTCTherapist @0xReflection Elon tweeting Bitcoin as his safe word in late 2020 and posting a Tesla purchase that ran the price up early 2021 also played a huge role in the last bull market"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T19:40Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"New mining companies cant popup overnight due to necessary infrastructure and expenses to get the ball moving so theyve had less competition sprout up this year. I could probably start my own bitcoin treasury company if I wanted to. I dont. They sprout up like weeds and have thinned investor inflows. Even with them all buying bitcoin Bitcoin still hasnt really gone up in 2025"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:38Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@Majikqp @BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman I understand that it might be. Do you understand it might not Cults make it hard sometimes I know"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:56Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@Majikqp @BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Fair. Thanks for not saying XX% or something which I think most Bitcoiners believe is the case lol"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T23:21Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@DominicStLaure5 @NolanAbell_ @picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman ๐Ÿ˜‚. Im impressed with golds move and while some people say thats just a precursor for Bitcoin I am not so sure. I dont own any gold either"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T01:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"As far as $ASST goes what did I leave out or say incorrectly People wonder why Im hard on Jeff"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T22:28Z 20.7K followers, 13.6K engagements

"I posted recently about XXXX mNAV being a reasonable floor for BTCTC's if they're willing to sell btc and buy shares here and there. I've included my thoughts as well as the basic equations below. ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-11T22:55Z 20.7K followers, 18.9K engagements

"I havent touched crypto leverage sites since 2021 and even then was with very small amounts (I was too busy trusting BlockFi and Celsius with a lot of the rest ๐Ÿ˜…). This is a great explanation of auto deleveraging I wasnt very aware of"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-12T14:02Z 20.7K followers, 11.5K engagements

"@BTCBreadMan @christi61026749 2x for an altcoin being seen as minimal is nuts. I wouldnt 2x leverage an index fund and be able to sleep at night"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T05:13Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@HermesLux I agree. I have the same issues with Mstr counting the btc/share immediately for CAGR which wont be realized for years assuming it plays out. Also not subtracting the pref holder entitlements"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:40Z 20.7K followers, 2547 engagements

"@BTCBULLRIDER This would be them buying not selling shares"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:44Z 20.7K followers, 2163 engagements

"@tristrats But if the company exists with the sole purpose of outperforming Bitcoin wouldnt buying back their own shares to increase btc/share make more sense and support the common share price better"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@b_kochkodin Perhaps lol. At least Metaplanet makes probably most of the money to pay pref interest through their put option strategy"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:55Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Selling bitcoin when common shares are under book value makes sense from a bps standpoint and Im all for it as I want to see how it plays out but its also possible that the incentive for each company trading at a discount in the future to do this would be the cause (or at least the blame) of the next bear market"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T18:50Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"I suppose the scenario would be that the company is the scapegoat for the next bear market and then laws change not allowing the company to rob Peter to pay Paul and then rob Paul to pay Peter with the pref and common shares. Bitcoin acting as an intermediary while being technically a commodity and bypassing their need to be classified as an investment company also could come under more scrutiny. Also prefs are currently demanding around XX% yield which means the market doesnt trust them yet. Everyone says they just need rating agency blessing but Imagine the panic if the company is 25%"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T19:13Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@IvayloPashov Thanks for pointing this out. And I agree that arbing mNAV discount or premium by itself is only really worth it if its far enough away from zero. The bitcoin vs buybacks is a separate thought but your points make sense"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T19:26Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"I like them both and am not trying to teach them anything. Im just exploring the topic as I always have. Mostly likely some of my criticisms of the space are fair and some are not. A huge advantage Metaplanet has over Mstr is they have income from selling puts on Bitcoin which should be able to cover most or all of their preferred payments. Lower interest rate environment helps too. I have broad concerns which many other people have shared as well. Just like Bitcoin itself has these companies need to be able to withstand strong scrutiny of topics like what is a ponzi"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T19:45Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"It also reminds me a little of NAKAs claim of Bitcoin yield squared or whatever. Taking things to their extremes to see how they work or where they break is a useful strategy. ASST isnt a useful strategy. Imagine doing maybe X or X deals a year and being lucky if you get XX% profit per deal. Warren Buffet did this strategy when valuations were crazy low sometimes and even he stopped doing it. Bitcoin holdings are an exact value so the odds of a company trading way below its book are low. The odds of shareholders being willing to part with their shares from a buyout offer for less than book"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T22:03Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"๐Ÿ˜‚ If anyone truly believes this they should buy the XX strike December XX 2025 (74 DTE) IBIT options. A $250k bitcoin price is around a $XXX IBIT and with IBIT currently at $XX the $XX strike calls cost $XXXX which would grow to be worth $XX if all that came to pass. That is a 67x by end of year. Im not saying it cant happen Im describing how low a probability the market currently views this"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T19:09Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@LukeDavisgrey @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Did mNAV expand the last time Bitcoin hit new highs No. History isnt that hard guys"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:31Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@E055Michel1842 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman When stocks do nothing but drop for months there will likely be lots of selling pressure on any upswing. I think the longer we stay around X mNAV the more it solidifies the low mNAV narrative"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:51Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@BTC_Cassidy @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman What dont I understand about Bitcoin"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:41Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@julysownj @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman You should perhaps have a clue whether they can double btc/share in X months or 6-10 years with the prefs. Might be worth it. Ignorance isnt an advantage imo"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:45Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"@ArdunWard @morpheus7447x @comic Ive also been able to outperform Bitcoin and retire. Nothing broken here fren"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T03:08Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"Im not crashing out in a tweet storm Im sharing my views why I feel my thesis has been largely invalidated and answering peoples questions. Perhaps it hits harder since you disagree and thats totally fine and understandable. I assure you these posts arent coming from lashing out or emotional anguish. I get judged if I am silent. I get judged if I am not silent. I realize I cant satisfy everyone not trying to but Ill continue to share what I see and how I see it in as thoughtful a way as I can manage. Interesting and perhaps telling that people are commenting about my posts without actually"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T15:03Z 20.7K followers, 6883 engagements

"@MattRostosky Tons of people insanely bullish and sharing screenshots of unrealized gains. Also theres a video on my YouTube channel when delta lies which discussed clues with options pricing"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T23:40Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@ZynxBTC ๐Ÿค Im certainly willing to be wrong. Every investment decision should be based on that I think"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:35Z 20.7K followers, 1871 engagements

"That has been the only game for almost all of these companies for almost the whole time. It is shifting to preferred stock which I have a decent (not perfect) understanding of. Even considering prefs Im not extremely optimistic. Run the math on how long it takes with prefs alone to double the btc/share"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:02Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Its not just that mnav touched X despite crazy high volume before it hit X theres been no sign of bounce even well below PIPE prices. If mNAV had been volatile lots of action and quick moves that would be different. This slow bleed has been relentless. The longer it stays at these low mNAVs the more the market accepts this as a reasonable valuation. It took a lot for me to throw in the towel"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T03:03Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@McJohnaldson @Captain_Bhab Im not sure but Im also nervous with bitcoin having gone sideways for almost a year"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T03:33Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"This should be the strongest of X years. We still havent even doubled the highs from over X years ago. Thats not even compensating for inflation or comparing to index fund returns. Bitcoin is becoming less and less worth the risk to me given the quickly diminishing returns. Perhaps its about to jump like crazy and Im naive. This is just my opinion"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T03:43Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@MSteelgrave @sunny051488 @ColeMacro I think the PIPE price is in the lower $X range but dont remember it exactly"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-07T23:55Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Worth a read. My feelings are mixed but I largely agree with Jesse that mNAV arb through share dilution may be a dying game. My views have changed on this over time though Ive viewed this as inevitable in the long term. People often say things that make zero sense like mNAV should trade like a PE ratio. No ๐Ÿ˜‚. MNAV is basically price to book ratio so price to book should trade like price to earnings Its complicated since Bitcoin is the book. Since an investment/holding is the book and it usually trades at a premium or discount to holdings it resembles a close end fund. Though it has earnings."
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-08T14:50Z 20.7K followers, 22.6K engagements

"Do you think the Semler deal closes Has it already or could it still be stopped I dont see why SMLR investors or board would want asst shares if its now under the SMLR stock price. I dont care about the dream team. I care about execution. When NAKA dropped from $XX to $X with bitcoin near highs how does that look When Im hearing that Matt Cole gets $XX million worth of shares in a few months it sounds like he has incentive to have price lower. When I see misleading headlines about them buying SMLR for $XX thats not helpful. When I see how easily Jeff W blocks those who disagree with him thats"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T22:22Z 20.7K followers, 15.3K engagements

"Agreed. PIPES wayyyy below market price is the simplest red flag. ๐Ÿšฉ For NAKA Bailey is a walking red flag For ASST the moment they hired Jeff I knew hope was lost"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T21:40Z 20.7K followers, 25.5K engagements

"@OnlyOChan @samironthemove Likely exiting. I also dont need home runs I just need to not screw things up"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T22:51Z 20.7K followers, 16.9K engagements

"@CashflowingOptn Ill probably exit and be index funds some options some cash and maybe some bitcoin exposure (perhaps 5-10%). Im retired and my one duty is to not screw that up so playing it safe is the goal"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T01:27Z 20.7K followers, 16.6K engagements

"@3xpops Thanks. Dont laugh too hard but Ill probably be mostly index funds some options some cash and maybe 5-10% Bitcoin or Bitcoin treasury companies. I may keep some MetaPlanet and H100"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T01:36Z 20.7K followers, 2022 engagements

"I really dont know ๐Ÿ˜…. Im not saying the top for Bitcoin is in this cycle but pretending it was lets say Bitcoin dropped to 50k and Metaplanet dropped to XXX mNAV and didnt really get any yield between now and then. Metaplanet would be $XXXX. Im by no means saying that would happen. I just know I like to buy when everyone is completely panicked and Bitcoin is still strong for now"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T02:52Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@comic @RealJimChanos Truth"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T20:00Z 20.7K followers, 2923 engagements

"Im just not willing to hold in cold storage. I dont miss the days of transferring Bitcoin and worrying that a single part of the key may be typed incorrectly. Im fine being part of society which comes with some centralized things like deeds to houses etc which dont vanish with a simple error or electronics failure. Perhaps my concerns are outdated. Wrench attack is my other huge concern as my anonymity isnt guaranteed"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T23:25Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@DismalDefi @picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Bitcoin price action isnt a Bitcoin thing Choice A: call someone dumb. Choice B: actually have a conversation if youre bothering to converse"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T23:27Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Ugh. Im sharing my honest views like Ive always tried to do. If I hold my stock and talk about it Im a shill. If I dont hold the stock (and I am not short in anyway either) Im a nuisance. You can choose to follow me or not or call me out however you like. I did not think it was likely at all that Bitcoin would still be this low AND that mNAV would have dropped to X which it never has before. If I viewed this as a trade I would have sold at $XX. My views have changed for what I believe are reasonable reasons. The stock is already at X mnav so Im not sure what your concern is with me sharing my"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T23:36Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Please watch and share this video I made XX years ago if you can. If you disagree lets talk about it"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-08T00:25Z 20.7K followers, 37.3K engagements

"My thesis was that MetaPlanets mNAV would compress to X or near X but what changed is that happened way quicker than I expected. When the facts change I have to try to learn from them own up to my errors but more importantly try to understand them. The next 2-4x of their btc/share will most likely be a lot more of an uphill climb now. The broad view of any of these companies is having a better return than Bitcoin itself. From these prices I think its very likely they outperform Bitcoin and as many people expect Bitcoin to 100x in XX years any return on top of that is insane. All of that being"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-08T23:59Z 20.7K followers, 55.9K engagements

"I replaced the Metaplanet dojo link with my mostly Metaplanet YouTube link so that critique is silly. Im rarely on discord anymore so didnt make much sense. I was never an early investor in Metaplanet. Late April 2025 isnt early. Im now pretending these companies have risk Ive shared this for a long time. Months ago arguing with people and I clearly would point out that high mNAV is both an asset and a liability. Ive also been unwavering in my belief that these companies would trade close to X mNAV long term. I was very wrong on how the rest of 2025 would go and have been openly saying that."
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T03:51Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@satoshi132009 @RN72686 Im still an investor in Metaplanet and H100"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-10T05:23Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@Michael36X I love it too. Wish theyd make a higher quality movie now. I liked the personal growth being trapped in prison while learning how to conquer"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-11T02:43Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"A company that holds X Bitcoin trades at a Bitcoin mNAV of infinity. Stop siting Tesla or even Coinbase mNAVs. The idea of encouraging traditional companies to not just buy bitcoin but to dump common shares on the market is silly. Even just the Bitcoin treasury companies we have now are struggling enough to absorb new shares and offerings"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-13T15:33Z 20.7K followers, 12.6K engagements

"Why did my MetaPlanet models fail See below. Could I be wrong again Of course. MNAV may bounce. Its not something Simon or Dylan or any of us can control. I have the utmost respect for them. All my models were based on mNAV premium arb before eventual compression to X but the compression occurred very quickly. Tons of new companies didnt help as everyone fought for inflows. I did great buying MSTR leaps late 2022 within a day of the low. I did great calling the top in Nov a day before it hit. Ive also made a lot of mistakes (celsius/ BlockFi/voyager) and have done my best to be transparent"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T01:14Z 20.7K followers, 107.6K engagements

"Some say I should have announced when I started to doubt the thesis. Im just not sure when that was as there should always be some level of doubt of ones own thesis. That is part of what keeps us from going overboard and investing more than we can risk (or stomach) losing. Also the moral dilemma of announcing pessimism and potentially contributing further to downward pressure. Luckily Im sharing my doubt when stock premium is at zero so deflating premium isnt something Im worried about. The company also has MSW paused so any downward pressure due to my transparency wont affect their ability"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-14T14:13Z 20.7K followers, 24.7K engagements

"Decent chance to me. If anyone is unwilling to assign that possibility a probability they are the monkey sitting with its ears covered. Thats why I had to get out of Metaplanet recently and am slowly exiting elsewhere. It wasnt just the failure of yield from mNAV arb to outpace the mNAV compression. Also most people dont seem to have any ideas how the next bear market may unfold. Didnt Saylor say months ago that winter wasnt coming back or something Insane"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T01:21Z 20.7K followers, 5033 engagements

"Haha ya. I joke because that was how people labeled me when I said I was getting out of Metaplanet. The guy who is X% Bitcoin cant understand why those non-Bitcoiners with X% allocated can justify their low allocation. The guy at XX% looks down on the X% dude thinking how ignorant someone must be to not be at least X% invested in Bitcoin. The dude with XX% claims anyone who is more in fiat than Bitcoin must not be a real Bitcoiner. The guy with XXX% invested in Bitcoin cant understand why anyone even touches dirty fiat anymore as they must not be True Believers and dare not claim the title."
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T03:25Z 20.7K followers, 5332 engagements

"One potential issue with the thought experiment though Id like to model this out sometime to verify Im not missing something basic"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T19:27Z 20.7K followers, 6160 engagements

"@picdoc581 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Mstr didnt have XXX competitors until recently. The space is absolutely flooded"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T21:54Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@julysownj @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman But have you even ran the math on how long it takes for them to double btc/share with prefs Assuming they only issue up to XX% of NAV. I have"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:28Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"My thesis was that Bitcoin would go up a lot this year. It didnt. My thesis was that MetaPlanet yield would outpace mnav compression. It hasnt over the past X months. My thesis was that X mNAV prices were inevitable but perhaps a year away or not until the next bear market. I was wrong there too. That doesnt mean all these things cant correct themselves in the future but for the period Ive been a stock holder my criteria for success have all failed"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:31Z 20.7K followers, 1147 engagements

"Sorry that would be $8k a month and thats before taxes. Much less if you want your assets to grow instead of taking out every gain"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T00:39Z 20.7K followers, 15.6K engagements

"@jaxzxu @McJohnaldson @Captain_Bhab I dont see it staying the same but the halving and price run-up has drawn investors in with the hope of outsized returns. Returns are diminishing (most likely) and I think many people will lose interest. Weve seen some OGs sell their whole position this year"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T13:43Z 20.7K followers, XX engagements

"@Ys0Complicated So basically XXX% in bitcoin No thanks"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T13:48Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Dealing in XX baggers (only buying stocks you believe will 10x) is a way to think about investments logarithmically. So many people chase the next XX% or even XXX% which is not usually life changing. Bitcoin is a 10x (and more) from here. I believe MetaPlanet $MPTLF is a 10x (and more) from here in btc/share. Combined thats 100x A double 10x is insanely rare. You have to look at pretty early investors in tech companies or Bitcoin OGs to find it. Game plan for 100x When Bitcoin is around $1M and MetaPlanet has over 100000 Bitcoin I believe the stock will be 100x from here. Add X zeroes. Thats"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-05-06T14:06Z 20.7K followers, 14.9K engagements

"Watching now. $H100 $HOGPF / $GS9. Some notes: @Sanderandersenn is now Executive Chairman (from CEO) @Wiik_Johannes is now CEO (from COO) Going from X Bitcoin to 1000+ in a few short months has been incredible. XXX% Bitcoin yield this quarter Bitcoin denominated convertible bonds with STOKR is a likely upcoming move to increase Bitcoin holdings potentially with a unique structure. Weekly PIPES based on current stock price has worked well so far but as the company is getting larger shifting to other capital raising methods will make sense. Preferred stock is a huge goal. Even private placed"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-09-25T18:08Z 20.7K followers, 21.8K engagements

"Simple thought experiment with preferred stock for Bitcoin Treasury Companies: The idea is to arbitrage the potential XX% CAGR vs the dividend paid to pref holders around 5-10%. If a treasury company is trading at X mNAV and the whole idea of these companies is to outperform Bitcoin (have a higher CAGR) should the companies instead sell prefs to raise money and buy their own shares instead of Bitcoin Buy the thing that is expected to perform better and from inside the company one would hope the companys common shares are expected to outperform especially if trading around book value now. The"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-17T17:38Z 20.7K followers, 29.5K engagements

"@picdoc581 @jeffgoldsmith23 @ZynxBTC @BrianTGoodman Thats fair. I believe my thesis on Bitcoin is changing despite having done 1000 hours of research since 2016. Im the guy they claim doesnt exist"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T22:51Z 20.7K followers, 3689 engagements

"Everyone seems to believe its a guarantee so much so that 100s of new companies have entered the space to provide yield on top of Bitcoin (similar to what drew in many of us in 2020) yet Bitcoin price has gone sideways in 2025 which should be the most bullish of the X years. Currently its greatly underperformed 2024 and has yet to double highs from 2021 especially when inflation adjusted. Hype and retail cycles are the expectation and terms like Game Theory mNAV and financial engineering are used as buzz words. When youre kicked out of the cult for becoming critical despite Bitcoins returns"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-18T23:19Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"I think everything is supposed to be good for Bitcoin so Im sure this is fine"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T01:31Z 20.7K followers, 10.5K engagements

"@satoshichapo Maybe in todays prices but unless you let your retirement assets grow that 8k a month before tax health insurance etc will be worth less and less in X years X years XX years"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T13:50Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@marycatedelvey He beat a girl and he liked it ๐Ÿคฆโ™‚. The beating will continue until the woke wake up"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T15:15Z 20.7K followers, 24.8K engagements

"Thats probably a good idea. Part of the issue is finding the few people that would be willing to give me a chance at any specific plant. I have an immense track record. Often these companies pay big money for experts who rarely solve problems and essentially milk the same dozen problems for years claiming progress and expertise with little signs of either. I like the idea of dont pay me unless/until I solve it. I love simplifying the process as well which also goes against what most engineers try to do. Similar to how Elon looks at the process"
X Link @ActuallyClimber 2025-10-19T18:00Z 20.7K followers, XXX engagements

creator/twitter::124822899/posts
/creator/twitter::124822899/posts