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# ![@yieldsearcher Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::48034640.png) @yieldsearcher Mr. VIX

Mr. VIX posts on X about deflation, inflation, china, fed the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 4891 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::48034640/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +160%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +74%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +209%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +5,551%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::48034640/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +70%
- X Year XXXXX +356%

### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::48034640/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXX +1.40%
- X Month XXXXXX +14%
- X Months XXXXXX +87%
- X Year XXXXXX +1,875%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::48034640/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #3926 [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks) 

**Social topic influence**
[deflation](/topic/deflation) #10, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #171, [china](/topic/china) #2072, [fed](/topic/fed), [vix](/topic/vix) #12, [money](/topic/money), [japan](/topic/japan), [default risk](/topic/default-risk), [$orcl](/topic/$orcl), [level](/topic/level)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@rachell11179070](/creator/undefined) [@gonogokorea](/creator/undefined) [@junkoperator](/creator/undefined) [@realjohngaltfla](/creator/undefined) [@adrunkenmiller](/creator/undefined) [@gammablast](/creator/undefined) [@thefoolishpig](/creator/undefined) [@dariocpx](/creator/undefined) [@tradfidiguy](/creator/undefined) [@monetaryguy589](/creator/undefined) [@lordpos3idon](/creator/undefined) [@frankoz95967943](/creator/undefined) [@planetbrady](/creator/undefined) [@zanjacquref](/creator/undefined) [@mauiboymacro](/creator/undefined) [@gaybearres](/creator/undefined) [@levensondavid](/creator/undefined) [@ajacksonhole](/creator/undefined) [@stockmomo](/creator/undefined) [@gjkingkong](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Not Pixel (PX)](/topic/$px) [Gapcoin (GAP-1)](/topic/$gap) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)](/topic/$db) [Marriott International Inc (MAR)](/topic/$mar) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB)](/topic/kimberly-clark) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"For performing credit/CDS the industry standard is to assume a uniform XX% recovery rate when imputing default probability. Once the CDS enters near-term default risk territory it will start trading based on the markets view of recovery typically linked to the lowest $-px bond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1989157882386927717)  2025-11-14T02:26Z 18.5K followers, 5538 engagements


"@LoneStarSaur Well said. Obv there is a lot of factors getting priced here but when I was a novice getting into credit world framing things thru more simplistic concepts like default prob and recovery was very helpful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1989367340098838877)  2025-11-14T16:18Z 18.5K followers, 1006 engagements


"$GAP +4% Comps breakout tells you the entire story: - Gap: +7% vs +4% cons - Old Navy: +6% vs X% cons - Banana Republic: +4% vs X% cons - Athleta: -XX% vs -X% cons Value brands winning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1991624993302802784)  2025-11-20T21:49Z 18.5K followers, 2472 engagements


"The credit market continues to give the AI thesis the Heisman. 5Y CDS for ORCL and CRWV CRWV CDS is now being quoted in upfront points (8pts) rather than spreads (725bps) a shift that happens when default risk is sufficient enuf to price off of implied recovery value instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1991904387510198340)  2025-11-21T16:19Z 18.5K followers, 18.3K engagements


"HYG is an extremely liquidity-sensitive product. When you are a $1.5t asset class sandwiched between a $50t Treasury & IG corp credit market and a $60T equity market flows from major asset allocators will have a much outsized impact. The asset class is simply too small for large reallocations not to leave a mark. Hence why after Bitcoin HYG is arguably my second-favorite financial market liquidity indicator. Recently HY funds (see the red bars on the left chart below) have experienced three consecutive weeks of outflows. That pattern alone is enough to noticeably tighten liquidity across the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1992222643932581972)  2025-11-22T13:24Z 18.5K followers, 13.5K engagements


"Summary of Fed Regional Surveys for Nov Mfg: - NY: +18.7 vs.+5.8 cons / XXXX prior - Philly: -XXX vs.+1.0 / -XXXX - KC: +8 vs+3 / +6 - Dallas: -XXXX vs -XXX / -XXX - Richmond: -XX vs -X / -X Svcs: - NY: -XXXX vs -XXXX - KC: -X vs -X - Richmond: -XX vs -X - Philly: -XXXX vs -XXXX - Dallas: -XXX vs -XXX Mfg is quite mixed (2 expansion / X contractions). Services continue to show MoM contractions but at a lesser pace than Oct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1993413638254694598)  2025-11-25T20:17Z 18.5K followers, 2313 engagements


"Worth a thought. This speed and acuity of wks VIX sell was def one of the more extreme ones I have seen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994478439265718676)  2025-11-28T18:48Z 18.5K followers, 37.1K engagements


"@TheFoolishPig Recessions are deflationary but not all deflations are recessionary. 2008 was the Great Recession. Recession deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995533589807546817)  2025-12-01T16:40Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"Great read. As our system becomes increasingly reliant on the repo market for financial leverage there are just as many participants who are borrowing collateral (i.e. short rates) and who stand to lose billions if rates rally sharply. It is not just the absolute level of rates that matters but also the degree of volatility. A good reminder that the longer and higher the market goes the more leverage builds up and the more fragile and susceptible to external shocks the system becomes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996328675092906422)  2025-12-03T21:20Z 18.5K followers, 11.4K engagements


"Stale data from Sep but growing excess capacity is generally not an environment where inflation is the primary concern"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996339932080812489)  2025-12-03T22:05Z 18.5K followers, 2716 engagements


"As the father of Blitzkrieg warfare General Guderian said Never pour new wine into old bottles. No shortage of investors fighting yesterdays wars (evidenced by record short interest in TLT) when the greater threat is exactly the opposite. Miran is not dovish enough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996343994310365660)  2025-12-03T22:21Z 18.5K followers, 6429 engagements


"Correlation Causation but Gold vs. JGB 30Y 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996378417684783433)  2025-12-04T00:38Z 18.5K followers, 4029 engagements


"@WahlstromGrant But still the trend within the same sample set is clear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996396993271480482)  2025-12-04T01:51Z 18.4K followers, XX engagements


"Many posts focusing on the sheer quantum of money involved but I would also note how compressed the timeline is for OpenAI to frontload that astronomical cash burn to reach profitability (5 yrs) compared with Uber (13) Tesla (16) and Amazon (8)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996662050341507432)  2025-12-04T19:25Z 18.5K followers, 11.2K engagements


"Imagine that if boomers cannot afford to retire chance is we wont either. Btw this may become a key wildcard for subsequent payroll reports. Last Sep we had a good headline number but UR ticked up due to rising labor participation rates (presumably from this boomer cohort)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996685171807129864)  2025-12-04T20:56Z 18.5K followers, 3148 engagements


"They have been making up for the collapse in exports to the US with exports to the RoW (esp EU) but there comes a limit on how much you can push goods elsewhere. Chinese overall exports in Oct was -XXX% but -XX% to the US. Do the math on the scale of product dumping to RoW (and how deflationary that can be)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997000551448375792)  2025-12-05T17:50Z 18.5K followers, XX engagements


"@sesamesoymilk That msg makes sense on the long ends but the 2Y is where that this does not quite translate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997011952124731663)  2025-12-05T18:35Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"Worth a ponder. How much is the market pricing in SCOTUS repeal of Trump tariffs Polymarket says XX% chance of that happening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997052357939810505)  2025-12-05T21:16Z 18.5K followers, 4007 engagements


"Seems like this lack of breadth is an issue not just in the US but in Korea (Samsung and Hynix) and Japan (Advantest SBG and Toray) as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1983868557734900012)  2025-10-30T12:08Z 18.5K followers, 4020 engagements


"Another leisure stock down Norwegian Cruise -XX% (-26% ytd) Sellside wanted to see X% yoy growth on ticket px (gross yield). They printed -XXX% in peak season. Q4 guidance weak. RCL was not great either (-9%). Boomers cutting back on cruises. Havent seen this outside COVID"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1985761310320259146)  2025-11-04T17:29Z 18.5K followers, 11.1K engagements


"Japans Export to US % YoY - Jul: -XX% - Aug: -XX% - Sep: -XX% - Oct: -X% Marked improvement in trade balance. Two major factors are driving this trend: X. XX% tariff deal was finalized in Sep and Oct was the first full month under the new tariff regime. X. The JPY depreciated from XXX to XXX in Oct. The weaker yen is having its intended effect as it is improving Japans trade balance and bringing in much-needed USD. However this comes at the cost of depressing domestic consumption and pushing inflation to 3.0%. Lot of objectives for Japan to fill - Keep JPY low enough to offset tariffs and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1991729351692296467)  2025-11-21T04:44Z 18.5K followers, 4897 engagements


"- Enjoying Thanksgiving with my fam. - Logs onto X for the first time today. - Half my feed is about Citrini and the other half is about the election of Adolf Hitler at Namibia. - Think that is a sign I need to go back to my family today. Happy Thanksgiving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994141002869919901)  2025-11-27T20:27Z 18.5K followers, 4218 engagements


"This live response from the ISM Mfg survey takes the cake: Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995560459395891644)  2025-12-01T18:27Z 18.5K followers, 9420 engagements


"What did I tell you about goods vs services divergence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996576807684849749)  2025-12-04T13:46Z 18.5K followers, 6628 engagements


"Canadian bond trading like shitcoin today taking over the mantle from JGB. 5Y +21bp (4 sigma move) 10Y +17bp (3 sigma move) 30Y +14bp (3 sigma move)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997019637322575999)  2025-12-05T19:05Z 18.5K followers, 3280 engagements


"@Issherai Yes deflation is bad for risk assets in and of itself but the policy response to fight deflation can offset that too. Question is when the policy response comes in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997311334153601279)  2025-12-06T14:25Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@Ravi__Baldev Positive for NVDA as long as China wants them. Next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998096882950971662)  2025-12-08T18:26Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"A silver squeeze on the last day of the month usually means that someone wants to badly cover their shorts before being on the hook for physical delivery next month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994448426407272576)  2025-11-28T16:48Z 18.5K followers, 20.7K engagements


"China to US containership volume -XX% MTD (Aug-Oct avg -5%) Korea to US -XX% MTD (Aug-Oct avg -11%) XX% of China volume Vietnam to US +5% MTD (Aug-Oct avg +6%): 1/3 of China. The pickups in trucking demand coming from domestic sources (warehouse shifting) not imports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994584162351657010)  2025-11-29T01:48Z 18.5K followers, 13.5K engagements


"I see no lies here. 😂 Love East Asia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994779537230762037)  2025-11-29T14:44Z 18.5K followers, 5091 engagements


"Watch US 2Y (+4bp). If the market takes a view that this situation in Japan materially impacts 2026 Fed cut trajectory (April cut is now a coin toss) when the US economy is at a risk of a material slowdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995518399116656935)  2025-12-01T15:40Z 18.5K followers, 11.8K engagements


"Debt and prefs ($$14b) need to be added to the market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995561306192314794)  2025-12-01T18:31Z 18.5K followers, 7424 engagements


"The most important undercurrent since last wk is the rates and DXY selloff. Pace is still orderly (no panic) but definitely something that makes you stop and think (esp with gold and silver taking off again). And no it is not just Hassett since 2Y is selling off too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996945442186109340)  2025-12-05T14:11Z 18.5K followers, 7032 engagements


"Going into FOMC next week - VIX dropping to 15-handle - 2Y +11bp over the past two weeks Normal logic suggests only one of them is right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1997010812633010620)  2025-12-05T18:30Z 18.5K followers, 9824 engagements


"🤷 (now lapping Cyber Monday; this data includes services and durable trxn data alongside merchandise goods) Again may not be the most accurate data but trend within this consistent sample set is going in a very clear one way direction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998080709651816696)  2025-12-08T17:22Z 18.5K followers, 7408 engagements


"For those not familiar to credit here is some reference: Implied default prob (over 5Y) for CDS: - 50bp: X% - 100: X% (ORCL) - 200: XX% - 300: XX% - 400: XX% - 500: XX% - 600: XX% (CRWV) - 700: XX% Compare this to: BBB cash spread: 110bp BB: XXX B: XXX CCC: 640"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1989081652929393135)  2025-11-13T21:23Z 18.5K followers, 230.2K engagements


"Latest check on the biggest hall of shame DM long bond post the UK OBR headline (0.25% 2061 Gilt and yes there are pension and insurance folks who lost XX% investing in DM govies) -X% total return this yr but recent 2pt bounce off the ATL from Sep is notable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1993672551835238880)  2025-11-26T13:25Z 18.5K followers, 2389 engagements


"Money supply velocity = Px real GDP Falling trade flows = falling dollar velocity = deflationary pressure Money printing alone does not cause inflation if velocity drops just like the pre-COVID QE era where velocity was negative and the economy stayed disinflationary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1994462216884478225)  2025-11-28T17:43Z 18.5K followers, 15.6K engagements


"Smart macro accounts learned this lesson back in April. I would note that Trumps pro-market inflection coincided with when both DXY and rates started selling off together and SOFR swap spread went deeply negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995287093669470648)  2025-12-01T00:21Z 18.5K followers, 24.7K engagements


"Deflation is good for savers and workers bad for borrowers and capitalists"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1995529005533978634)  2025-12-01T16:22Z 18.5K followers, 8890 engagements


"Russell +15% ytd Profitable Russell: +9.7% Unprofitable Russell: +45% Thats the tweet. ☠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996671690395513085)  2025-12-04T20:03Z 18.5K followers, 220.8K engagements


"I have come to realize Korea is the leading indicator for many things happening in the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996687815053357324)  2025-12-04T21:07Z 18.5K followers, 64.8K engagements


"@pahueg Morgan Stanley has a basket for each"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996921696058855565)  2025-12-05T12:36Z 18.5K followers, 1510 engagements


"Interestingly unprofitable credits not getting the same love as unprofitable equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1996938510582862272)  2025-12-05T13:43Z 18.5K followers, 3540 engagements


"@AntonioZup This is global technical selloff outweighing the fundamental US deflation. Just respecting the pathway but my fundamental view remains intact. In fact the more the mkt prices in a restrictive Fed the more deflationary things will get down the road"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998049943399895246)  2025-12-08T15:20Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"Steepening yield curve with JPY depreciation (inflating overseas USD assets) = Amazing for Japanese banks. Unrealized losses on their investments can grow but as long as the mkt believes there will be liquidity safeguards in place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998053859080438261)  2025-12-08T15:35Z 18.5K followers, 8145 engagements


"Very sympathetic to this. The more vicious the bonds selloff the quicker and more forceful the path to YCC/QE/ZIRP becomes. I respect the pathway (q has always been about the pain threshold) but my view on the end destination remains very much intact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998055346795946146)  2025-12-08T15:41Z 18.5K followers, 5519 engagements


"A reminder that there are many studies that once inflation approaches/goes over X% bonds and equities exhibit positive correlations. Another way of saying in a liquidity-dominant regime every cross asset correlation converges to X (like gold and equities)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998096581732782125)  2025-12-08T18:25Z 18.5K followers, 5748 engagements


"Germany is getting flooded with Chinese imports just as their auto exports are getting pummeled over there. US and China being its two biggest export destinations outside Europe this has a significant implication for current account/eurodollar flows for the continent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998098833679749284)  2025-12-08T18:34Z 18.5K followers, 3062 engagements


"Who buys branded consumable products these days when you can buy the same private label XX% cheaper PG -XX% ytd Kimberly Clark -XX% Church & Dwight -XX% Clorox -38%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998170468994703577)  2025-12-08T23:18Z 18.5K followers, 6791 engagements


"Does not look like Black Friday was fantastic for HD/home products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998373882043228473)  2025-12-09T12:47Z 18.5K followers, 4618 engagements


"TSA Airport Passenger Traffic % YoY - Sep: +0.5% - Oct: +4.0% - Nov: -XXX% - Dec MTD (12/1-12/8): -XXX% 🤔 Does not look like airfares are going to be a headwind for inflation for Nov and Dec"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998424667313619299)  2025-12-09T16:09Z 18.5K followers, 1869 engagements


"Lowest quit rate since COVID is generally not an environment where inflation is the primary concern"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998434142741004648)  2025-12-09T16:46Z 18.5K followers, 10.1K engagements


"Danny and I are polar opposites in our inflation/deflation debate but I respect his views. One thing we might both agree on is that recession risk is remote (though I am firmly in the slowdown camp and Danny is in the reflation camp). What has surprised me is how slowly this debate has moved toward any conclusion. Eight months after we started were still at it 😂. But honestly I just enjoy the sport of it all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998513766246310142)  2025-12-09T22:03Z 18.5K followers, XXX engagements


"@DannyDayan5 BOIL (and UVIX) the biggest widowmaker ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998516701105893785)  2025-12-09T22:14Z 18.5K followers, 2522 engagements


"There is a noticeably growing divergence between IWM (blue) and HYG (white) esp as the former reached ATH. Function of shitco equity getting much love while shitco credit not so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998559087672570033)  2025-12-10T01:03Z 18.5K followers, 3007 engagements


"China CPI report is an interesting one. Key items showing reacceleration of deflation -Housing -XXX% -Daily Staples -XXX% -Transport & Communications -XXX% -Education -XXX% But "Other Supplies and Services" line item +1.2% MoM (+14.2% YoY) to keep the core CPI at -XXX% MoM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/1998580483106693257)  2025-12-10T02:28Z 18.5K followers, 5018 engagements