[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @yieldsearcher Mr. VIX Mr. VIX posts on X about tariffs, powell, ppi, inflation the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX +199% - X Month XXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXX +1,473% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +5,129% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/posts_active)  - X Week XXX +33% - X Month XXX +6% - X Months XXXXX +139% - X Year XXXXX +940% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +1.90% - X Month XXXXXX +5.20% - X Months XXXXXX +660% - X Year XXXXXX +1,265% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #566 [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #131 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) XXXX% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks) XXXX% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) 6.62%, [powell](/topic/powell) 5.96%, [ppi](/topic/ppi) 5.96%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 3.97%, [china](/topic/china) 3.97%, [fed](/topic/fed) 3.31%, [gdp](/topic/gdp) 2.65%, [money](/topic/money) 1.99%, [deflation](/topic/deflation) 1.99%, [doj](/topic/doj) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jz281c](/creator/undefined) [@thefoolishpig](/creator/undefined) [@erineducational](/creator/undefined) [@tradfidiguy](/creator/undefined) [@alimasubway](/creator/undefined) [@pivotclearr](/creator/undefined) [@raymiemark](/creator/undefined) [@optimalrisk0](/creator/undefined) [@lordpos3idon](/creator/undefined) [@btcdadthoughts](/creator/undefined) [@zanjacquref](/creator/undefined) [@nickyn00dl3s](/creator/undefined) [@gaudreaujordan](/creator/undefined) [@macrovet888](/creator/undefined) [@kl3dger](/creator/undefined) [@planetbrady](/creator/undefined) [@tyberious2100](/creator/undefined) [@fenrirfunds](/creator/undefined) [@thejohnspartan0](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "I find it noteworthy that the TGA balance as of Wed stands at $312b virtually unched from the $311b level at the time of the OBBBs passage two weeks ago. Suggests to me that the NY Fed and Treasury appear to be controlling the pace of the TGA refill likely in response to the slightly elevated SOFR. Will be interesting to see whether this dynamic shifts next week now that stablecoin issuance can ramp up with the Genius Act set to become law tomorrow"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945939106128654505) 2025-07-17 20:10:11 UTC 10.5K followers, 2995 engagements "@MauiBoyMacro Alternative headline: using shitty gadgets that are insults to the word art as a medium of money laundering exchange has burst"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946202090147029190) 2025-07-18 13:35:11 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements "I am intrigued but I am not sure this is a good idea"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1942721738523214319) 2025-07-08 23:05:31 UTC 10.3K followers, 3059 engagements "There is a good debate to be had about how high the tariffs will be but I am a bit amused when I come across folks here who think tariffs will be a nothingburger. Watch his interviews from the 80s - the two issues he never deviated from are immigration and the trade balance"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1942747853463445654) 2025-07-09 00:49:17 UTC 10.5K followers, 2515 engagements "Alongside goods inflation has anyone noticed immigrant deportation has not done much to stop deflation in homebuilding sector one of the biggest consumers of immigrant labor (beside agriculture) #2 Lennar reported a X% yoy decline in their new home sales px back in June"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1944726300834275771) 2025-07-14 11:50:56 UTC 10.5K followers, 2779 engagements "@TheFoolishPig Part of me is beginning to suspect that they are not making this effort just to go thru the motion"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945964264046424508) 2025-07-17 21:50:09 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "You know I am critical of the GDP calculation methodologies and its inability to gauge the future productivity of consumptions and investments. The US certainly has tons of wastes and rent seeking middlemen. We do not produce much hard goods and services to your pt are highly subjective. In PPP China has already outpaced the US but nominal matters too because the financial wealth does matter for US' role as the biggest consumer mkt in the world and its power projections around the globe. But it is very much part of the script where the US enjoys such financialized wealth due to dollar's"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945705784974684498) 2025-07-17 04:43:03 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "You are right on both regards. Services can have inflation on top of goods. But service inflation in the end is driven more by domestic labor market supply/demand (wage growth plays a huge role). This can indeed be indirectly impacted by tariffs but for a XX% service based economy the direct impact is pretty diluted. Housing for example don't have much to do with tariffs. CPI obviously are very comparable with some variability based on different consumption habits of each country"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945704443783135343) 2025-07-17 04:37:43 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "In any case if folks were wondering what Powell firing will do to the mkt the past one hr of mkt action tells us what to buy and sell. Short long bonds equity and dollar Buy gold and 2Y Crypto was pretty neutral on this"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945516404695810334) 2025-07-16 16:10:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 4058 engagements "Vol control is hedge funds biggest enemy when it pays to be contrarian"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946192522813817258) 2025-07-18 12:57:10 UTC 10.5K followers, 2054 engagements "@axcilla When has a witch hunt ever stopped at one person I am playing a bit of a devils advocate but once you are set on controlling the Fed not sure why you stop midway. Just thinking out loud and not a prediction by any means. But def worth a popcorn"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945972891423498477) 2025-07-17 22:24:26 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "All else equal PPI leads CPI by X months depending on corporate inventory cycle (2-6 depending on durability/shelf-life of goods). Core goods PPI remains at +0.3% MoM but is strongly offset by -XXX% in freight logistics/warehousing (been averaging -XXX% over the past X months reflecting freight recession). Other notable line items: - Significant decline in retailing margins in key products (Computer -XXX% MoM / TV & electronics -XXXX% / Auto -5.4%). Key contributor to the -XXX% core services print. - Airline passenger services (this goes into PCE not the CPI equivalent): -XXX% MoM (-0.9%"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945474566433771874) 2025-07-16 13:24:16 UTC 10.4K followers, 3252 engagements "One can argue whether this case on Fed renovation is meritless or not but what seems certain to me at this stage is that July FOMC presser is gonna be lit with or without Powell"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945961688173330464) 2025-07-17 21:39:55 UTC 10.5K followers, 2080 engagements "I trust Koreans will front-run US boomers tonight. 🤣"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945964942013632629) 2025-07-17 21:52:51 UTC 10.5K followers, 4283 engagements "Dan and I have a differing view on summer inflation/deflation but his inputs are always insightful. I agree that the overall verdict from June figures is inconclusive with lots of other external moving pieces to consider as the summer progresses"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945476178921312686) 2025-07-16 13:30:40 UTC 10.4K followers, 1497 engagements "With the event that transpired today the July FOMC presser just got upgraded into a must-watch spectacle from a snoozefest. (With remote but nonzero probability of not seeing Powell at the podium) IOW this a long winded way of me saying this is no longer a risk-free bet"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945523050067243497) 2025-07-16 16:36:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 1528 engagements "@TheFoolishPig Retail sales matter when mkt cares about growth inflection. Also one of the most insightful tools for fundamental research. Right now NFP and CPI matter more because they drive the Feds behavior. Function of the mkts focus on rates move versus GDP"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945842765599744339) 2025-07-17 13:47:21 UTC 10.4K followers, 1039 engagements "Well GDP is still positive thru 6-7% deficit spending. Private sector and consumers are pinched but not recessionary. As long as GDP is growing and AI future growth prospect remains unbroken the mkts faith in the equities will stay intact. The risk is really on the bond/repo mkts ability to handle the deficit/Treasury issuance"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1940788331488383165) 2025-07-03 15:02:50 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements "When Japan June PPI missed you knew this miss on exports and trade balance was coming. (Note: XX% decline in exports to the US is not surprising but X% decline in exports to China is a big tell on how RMBs relative depreciation against non-dollar fx is helping China against other exporting nations)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945634119293030801) 2025-07-16 23:58:16 UTC 10.5K followers, 5852 engagements "@itsyerboynico @igetredpilled @realjohnperi"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945998296041889818) 2025-07-18 00:05:23 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "Worth noting: The Inspector General overseeing this investigation is Michael Horowitz who during his tenure at the DOJ wrote pretty critical reports on the FBIs conducts during FISAgate/Russiagate/Clinton investigations that led to the firing of Comeys lieutenants. No evidence that he is a partisan but he will find dirts if they exist"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945519426297639247) 2025-07-16 16:22:31 UTC 10.3K followers, 2043 engagements "@BlueBird_Invest I am not saying it was a bad decision but you would have done much much better if you put your down payment on equities and cryptos. As someone who both bought at X% 30Y FRM and also played around with liquid assets I feel the difference pretty starkly"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946227801939484794) 2025-07-18 15:17:21 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "Industrials and wholesalers have faster inventory turnover cycles (1-2 months) than retailers (2-6 months). Probably can extend that by another month but incremental storage and warehouse capacity is a constraint. The June PPI number (three months into tariffs) is def baking in a sizable tariff impact certainly more than the CPI"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945498890049933622) 2025-07-16 15:00:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 1231 engagements "@TradFidiGuy Fiat debasement is half of my crypto long thesis (Genius Act and mass public adoption the other half)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945882368503357732) 2025-07-17 16:24:44 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "The stagflation of the 1970s occurred because of the two unique factors (alongside the Feds loose policy). (1) Big jump in oil price (energy demand is highly inelastic) and (2) inflexible labor mkt (unions) that made wage growth much more sensitive to future inflation expectation rather than normal supply/demand (hence we saw wage growth supporting inflation despite high UR) We have a very different labor market today than in the 70s. Wage growth is the make or break component of this inflation/deflation debate. No wage growth = no inflation (unless crude pops up)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1944736898276081957) 2025-07-14 12:33:02 UTC 10.5K followers, 4549 engagements "Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1944895606566346857) 2025-07-14 23:03:41 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements "The post-COVID asset allocation decision remains one of the most consequential factors affecting many peoples net worth. What seemed like prudent financial advice at the time - over-equitized home purchase - has in hindsight come with significant opportunity cost compared to investments in equities and cryptos. And that is exactly what median Americans did"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946224855617081401) 2025-07-18 15:05:39 UTC 10.5K followers, 2875 engagements "Some retail sales reports matter more than the others. June is not one of them. Not surprised by the markets meh reaction. The months that matter are (in descending order of importance) - Nov and Dec: holiday season (duh) - Jul and Aug: peak summer travel-related spendings/back to school shopping and Amazon Prime Days - May: Graduation season / Mothers Day and Memorial Day sales"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945839388505551032) 2025-07-17 13:33:56 UTC 10.5K followers, 1943 engagements "$2.7t is the target bank reserve level at which the Fed according to Waller plans to stop QT. As of last wk the combined balance of the TGA RRP and bank reserves stood at $3.9t. Assuming $850b goes to the TGA and $2.7t remains with the banks that leaves roughly $300b of incremental T-bill/deficit absorption capacity within the domestic financial system. That equates to 2-3 months worth of deficits = Aug-Sep which is also when US expects to fill up the TGA. In other words the US govt has that much time to find new sources of T-bill demand before it must rely on the Feds SRF. Since tapping the"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1943364044313792673) 2025-07-10 17:37:48 UTC 10.5K followers, 2381 engagements "I have been getting pretty robust feedback on my various posts about PPI (really appreciate the interest) and I am realizing there are some important nuances in the US PPI figures that are worth pointing out: X. The US PPI is quite unique compared to most other countries in that it is very heavily weighted towards services. In almost every other nation the PPI is entirely goods-based. In contrast the US PPI is XX% weighted toward services (80% for core PPI). This composition structurally dilutes much of the inflationary impact of tariffs on goods. X. In most countries (including China) the"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945647262673129543) 2025-07-17 00:50:30 UTC 10.5K followers, 10.5K engagements "TGA targeting $500b by end of July and $XXX by Sep. We start at $313b before the OBBB passage so we are looking at about $180b/month pace over the next three months. Worth noting in 2023 it took five months (May thru Oct) to refill TGA from $50b to $800b or about $150b/month"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1942755440460263588) 2025-07-09 01:19:26 UTC 10.5K followers, 5405 engagements "@Alimasubway Plenty of reasons to own crypto rn aside from Powell ouster. Gold is the better system risk off assets (at least in the initial drawdown phase)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946053618446057537) 2025-07-18 03:45:13 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "I continue to believe Japan will be the last country to cut a deal if at all. They simply cannot afford any tariffs nor any structural JPY appreciation"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945635969882894648) 2025-07-17 00:05:38 UTC 10.4K followers, 3095 engagements "@kl3dger @alphaporgs Yup. 13-15% effective tariffs right now with $360b annualized tariff at June runrate. We now have tariffs staring to hit our shelves"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1943333641058467902) 2025-07-10 15:37:00 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K. But I am genuinely curious why the spike in Jan which may also be applicable to July"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1944896336815346169) 2025-07-14 23:06:35 UTC 10.5K followers, 1065 engagements "Despite a fair bit of TBill issuance surge this wk the latest TGA balance (as of end of this Wed) stands at $311b vs $313b last Friday (pre-OBBB passage) TGA refill has not yet started in earnest yet. In case you are wondering about plumbing liquidity as of right now"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1943510747880771792) 2025-07-11 03:20:45 UTC 10.5K followers, 2595 engagements "We already have tariffs equal to 13-15% global rates per sellside estimates. The ultimate final tariff rate is indeed a question mark but pt here is we already have tariffs coming in ($70b+ in Q2 $360b/yr on June runrate) and that means this summer data should give us a clue on whether tariffs are inflationary. That is what Powell was pointing at in last FOMC presser. If there are no real tariffs in the summer what is the pt of his statement that he was going to look into summer inflation data for tariff impact"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1943329419537318158) 2025-07-10 15:20:13 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements "* No Trading Advice on JPM. Strictly trying to make an illustrative point on bank's increasing reliance on repo and ST borrowings JPMs Net Repo Liabilities + ST Borrowing: (negative = higher liabilities) Q3 2024: -$49b Q4 2024: -$55b Q1 2025: -$168b Q2 2025: -$190b"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945098266426683465) 2025-07-15 12:28:59 UTC 10.5K followers, 3054 engagements "China always has the currency appreciation card to tame inflation. Also coal (which China has ample domestic supply) and oil should continue to be supportive for low energy px. Also high probability imo that we see RMB become a viable reserve currency within 10yrs imo. Obv that is a political question so hard to predict exact timing on that"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945485743834423584) 2025-07-16 14:08:41 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "The stockings did matter no doubt. But I think gold import was just as big as the inventory stockings if I believe Atlanta Fed. In any case where I agree is that we have not yet seen the full impact and June cpi/ppi results are largely inconclusive for the overall inflation/deflation debate"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945503241804124462) 2025-07-16 15:18:13 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "He says a lot of things as you know. But I am going by two things he has preached from the 80s. Immigration control and bringing structural trade deficits down. The latter can only be structurally solved by lower USD in the end but before he gets there he does need to extract dollars from overseas to finance his deficits so squeeze then reset is the potential pathway I see"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945838520607670709) 2025-07-17 13:30:29 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "Yes the breakdown matters. Final consumer goods def matters and are inflating true. And that moves pce. (Notable offset on auto import deflation) On the industrial supplies a large part of that is being driven by increased px in plastics steel and wool fabrics which are just one step away from raw commodity px. Plastic is practically crude and wool is having output issues from Australia. Also offset by disinflating capital goods"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945873094934999100) 2025-07-17 15:47:53 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements "@allsgut 🤣 That rally is unreal over there"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946195272658206982) 2025-07-18 13:08:06 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "@roninrhino My suspicion has def grown after this"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946271359505428578) 2025-07-18 18:10:26 UTC 10.5K followers, 12.3K engagements "Who knows but max $5b/mth unwind of Treasury is pretty symbolic at this pt (+$35b/month of MBS) But if you want an illustrative framework Reserves stand at $3.4t +$200b of RRP = $3.6t Of that $500b has to go fill the TGA. That leaves $3.1t left. If we use Wallers $2.7t as the limit that is $400b of TBills capacity that the domestic banking system can soak up. At $2trillion annual deficits (or $170b/month) that gives us at least X more months till QT ends"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946370045455831120) 2025-07-19 00:42:35 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "Same yoy growth as Q1 but internals are more domestically oriented/higher quality (consumptions outpacing FAI and NX). NX contributes XX% of total GDP growth this quarter vs. XX% Trade balance as % of total GDP in Q2 is X% vs. X% in Q1"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1944953484442325270) 2025-07-15 02:53:40 UTC 10.5K followers, 2696 engagements "BTC rally this cycle began from Oct 2023 at $27K. The real catalyst that really drove this rally into hypergear was the spot ETF approval that came in Jan 2024 and institutional money started coming in. Genius/Clarity Acts may likely do the same for (select) altcoins"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946185696818942146) 2025-07-18 12:30:03 UTC 10.5K followers, 1792 engagements "See the charts below (yoy then mom) to see PPI trends ytd among the four key exporting nations of the world (China/Germany/Japan/Korea) Note how all four are showing negative MoM starting in May. Courtesy of ChatGPT"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1943159075480461515) 2025-07-10 04:03:20 UTC 10.4K followers, 2474 engagements "I certainly see what China has done with Argentina and Russia. Picking and choosing who to save from the oncoming dollar assault. Commodity rich EM countries (ASEAN esp) should get major help from China when that time comes. Hard to say the same for EU and Japan (which I suspect are US' real targets for liquidity extraction anyway)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945713166987727279) 2025-07-17 05:12:23 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "@market_sleuth Totally fair. Whether he walks the walk is still a big question mark. I am strictly referring to his chance at the SCOTUS"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945575285174288612) 2025-07-16 20:04:29 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "It basically disincentivizes folks from using Tether. TBD if US cracks them down hard (very good national security reasons to do so) that will cause some severe corrections in crypto near term or they try to gradually manage Tethers decline into irrelevance (which is the better economic argument). I do lean on the former and that affects my position sizing but does not affect my secular long term thesis"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946189105551057314) 2025-07-18 12:43:35 UTC 10.5K followers, 1172 engagements "Highly unlikely unless there is fraud All I know at this pt is that there is now nonzero probability of this happening"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945515246443012172) 2025-07-16 16:05:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 3821 engagements "@BTCDadThoughts That divide is almost religious. Even more so than gold vs btc imo. Plenty of rooms for multuple winners. I am long crypto mkt cap"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946189527741042747) 2025-07-18 12:45:16 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "Did a heckuva job as a prosecutor to get Diddy acquitted of sex trafficking and racketeering"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945630125485125743) 2025-07-16 23:42:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 2550 engagements "Important but with a caveat. PPI does not include final imported goods. However headline PPI does incorporate: X. Domestic producers price responses to tariffs X. Intermediate imported goods (like auto parts) that are used in the production of final domestic goods. 2/3 of US imports are raw materials and intermediate goods; only 1/3 final X. Logistics wholesale and retail margins on imported goods which are not insignificant. (Logistics accounts for XX% of total consumer prices; typical retail gross margins range from 25%-35%) So not XXX% but PPI does capture a significant portion of the"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945482882606043586) 2025-07-16 13:57:19 UTC 10.4K followers, 9364 engagements "@RaymieMark It always was. Just now out in the open without any pretense"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945989493393145872) 2025-07-17 23:30:24 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements "@Alimasubway $1.5b market cap for Fartcoin ($10b for Trump) I dont trade much memecoins. Just observing"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946674320886878398) 2025-07-19 20:51:40 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements "Worth noting that BTC is still trading $120K while altcoins are in the green. This suggests that much of the recent move may be driven by OG BTC holders rotating into ETH XRP and others. Hard to say whether this rotation is a prelude to the long-speculated Tether crackdown. However if there is one interest group in the US with more influence than the financial sector it is the national security establishment"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946198889951908258) 2025-07-18 13:22:28 UTC 10.5K followers, 3233 engagements "@LordPos3idon @TheFoolishPig I am gonna outsource this to chatgpt. It smooths out over six months so really lagging"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945615713000992903) 2025-07-16 22:45:08 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements "Last post on PPI (since we have retail sales to deal with tomorrow). Intermediate PPI (4 stages) shown here with core goods portion at each stage highlighted below. Interestingly showing meaningful slowdown on Stage X and X which should embed some intermediate goods imports that are tariffed. Stage 4: +0.1% MoM from +0.4% MoM prior - This includes auto parts and machineries Stage 3: -XXX% from +0.6% prior - Refined metal products like HRC bars and fabricated materials Stage 2: +0.4% from XXX% prior - Raw chemicals plastics and commodities. As you can see crude px spike did have an impact"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945720019951772121) 2025-07-17 05:39:37 UTC 10.4K followers, 2739 engagements "Final vote tomorrow it looks like. My LT thesis on crypto: overall secular bullish more upside for select alts (TBD) than BTC My 1-3 month thesis: Watch out for potential Tether and Eurodollar/plumbing disruptions. X Factor near term: Trump vs Powell"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945552179957277125) 2025-07-16 18:32:40 UTC 10.4K followers, 1965 engagements "All the recent altcoin craze has somehow escaped Trumpcoin (-87% from ATH) 🤔"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946671813662044484) 2025-07-19 20:41:42 UTC 10.5K followers, 41.7K engagements "The internals show that govt hiring hiding significant prvt sector slowdown Private employment: (74K vs 100K cons /137K prior (revised from 140K) Ditto Mfg (-7K vs -2K cons / -7K prior) The delta comes from Govt employment +73K vs last months -1K. Federal govt is shedding 7K but states and locals added 70K. Extrapolation will suggest continued slowdown in the private sectors so it has a bearish bent on future NFPs. But for the time being very clear verdict that there are no cuts coming anytime soon and the matrix can celebrate the ostensibly healthy US economy"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1940754591181640104) 2025-07-03 12:48:46 UTC 10.4K followers, 15.2K engagements "@FenrirFunds That is right. But another way of saying that is: the bar for tariffs being a significant inflationary factor is very high and there are plenty of rooms for services to absorb tariff impact on goods"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945648659254669512) 2025-07-17 00:56:03 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over XX yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946270722231292333) 2025-07-18 18:07:54 UTC 10.5K followers, 326.6K engagements "@JZ281C Really comes down to the willingness question. Capability is there just not a comfortable transition"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945713532705595579) 2025-07-17 05:13:50 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "Obv not XXX% as it will likely be used as a credible threat/leverage pt to extract a consensual currency deal first but absent the deal the dollar nuke option has to be part of the table. I explain the logic below. Point is the harsher and more violent the dollar selloff it inevitably leads to even more violent dollar squeeze as the RoW system runs short of dollar needed to fund their financial system's daily liquidity. We can chat more tomorrow"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945715075026702580) 2025-07-17 05:19:58 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements "@pivotclearr Help me out by pointing out where you these numbers from the full report. I gave you where I got mine and it matches how Bloomberg sees the PPI weighting (see the red box at the lower right corner)"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945702632187670703) 2025-07-17 04:30:31 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements "When the dollar is flush with liquidity you are correct. But once the trade balance declines and the current account surplus no longer generates enough dollars to sustain local monetary base growth a eurodollar shortage will become a thing. In the end the RoW's financial system runs on a 50-year accumulation of current account surplus dollars. That is the fundamental root of their monetary base. One exception is China. China has enough gold a manufacturing base that produces goods other countries want very little debts owed to foreigners and bilateral trade relationships with commodity-rich"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1945710308292518334) 2025-07-17 05:01:01 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements "QEs side effect is always the risk of inflation. After all QE is the Feds most powerful weapon against deflation. Whether QE actually causes inflation depends largely on the broader economic context - specifically whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment. This time the debate is obv on tariffs long term effect. It is worth highlighting two case studies btw: QE after the GFC did not lead to significant inflation because the world was recovering from one of the biggest debt-deflationary crises in history. Demand was constrained due to elevated unemployment and there was"  [@yieldsearcher](/creator/x/yieldsearcher) on [X](/post/tweet/1946410095858135365) 2025-07-19 03:21:44 UTC 10.5K followers, 1323 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@yieldsearcher Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX posts on X about tariffs, powell, ppi, inflation the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +199%
- X Month XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXX +1,473%
- X Year XXXXXXXXX +5,129%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XXX +33%
- X Month XXX +6%
- X Months XXXXX +139%
- X Year XXXXX +940%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +1.90%
- X Month XXXXXX +5.20%
- X Months XXXXXX +660%
- X Year XXXXXX +1,265%
CreatorRank: XXXXXX #
Social Influence #
Social category influence finance #566 countries XXXX% cryptocurrencies #131 technology brands XXXX% currencies XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% social networks XXXX% celebrities XXXX%
Social topic influence tariffs 6.62%, powell 5.96%, ppi 5.96%, inflation 3.97%, china 3.97%, fed 3.31%, gdp 2.65%, money 1.99%, deflation 1.99%, doj XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jz281c @thefoolishpig @erineducational @tradfidiguy @alimasubway @pivotclearr @raymiemark @optimalrisk0 @lordpos3idon @btcdadthoughts @zanjacquref @nickyn00dl3s @gaudreaujordan @macrovet888 @kl3dger @planetbrady @tyberious2100 @fenrirfunds @thejohnspartan0 @grok
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"I find it noteworthy that the TGA balance as of Wed stands at $312b virtually unched from the $311b level at the time of the OBBBs passage two weeks ago. Suggests to me that the NY Fed and Treasury appear to be controlling the pace of the TGA refill likely in response to the slightly elevated SOFR. Will be interesting to see whether this dynamic shifts next week now that stablecoin issuance can ramp up with the Genius Act set to become law tomorrow"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 20:10:11 UTC 10.5K followers, 2995 engagements
"@MauiBoyMacro Alternative headline: using shitty gadgets that are insults to the word art as a medium of money laundering exchange has burst" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 13:35:11 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements
"I am intrigued but I am not sure this is a good idea" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-08 23:05:31 UTC 10.3K followers, 3059 engagements
"There is a good debate to be had about how high the tariffs will be but I am a bit amused when I come across folks here who think tariffs will be a nothingburger. Watch his interviews from the 80s - the two issues he never deviated from are immigration and the trade balance" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-09 00:49:17 UTC 10.5K followers, 2515 engagements
"Alongside goods inflation has anyone noticed immigrant deportation has not done much to stop deflation in homebuilding sector one of the biggest consumers of immigrant labor (beside agriculture) #2 Lennar reported a X% yoy decline in their new home sales px back in June" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 11:50:56 UTC 10.5K followers, 2779 engagements
"@TheFoolishPig Part of me is beginning to suspect that they are not making this effort just to go thru the motion" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 21:50:09 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"You know I am critical of the GDP calculation methodologies and its inability to gauge the future productivity of consumptions and investments. The US certainly has tons of wastes and rent seeking middlemen. We do not produce much hard goods and services to your pt are highly subjective. In PPP China has already outpaced the US but nominal matters too because the financial wealth does matter for US' role as the biggest consumer mkt in the world and its power projections around the globe. But it is very much part of the script where the US enjoys such financialized wealth due to dollar's" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 04:43:03 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"You are right on both regards. Services can have inflation on top of goods. But service inflation in the end is driven more by domestic labor market supply/demand (wage growth plays a huge role). This can indeed be indirectly impacted by tariffs but for a XX% service based economy the direct impact is pretty diluted. Housing for example don't have much to do with tariffs. CPI obviously are very comparable with some variability based on different consumption habits of each country" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 04:37:43 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"In any case if folks were wondering what Powell firing will do to the mkt the past one hr of mkt action tells us what to buy and sell. Short long bonds equity and dollar Buy gold and 2Y Crypto was pretty neutral on this" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 16:10:31 UTC 10.4K followers, 4058 engagements
"Vol control is hedge funds biggest enemy when it pays to be contrarian" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:57:10 UTC 10.5K followers, 2054 engagements
"@axcilla When has a witch hunt ever stopped at one person I am playing a bit of a devils advocate but once you are set on controlling the Fed not sure why you stop midway. Just thinking out loud and not a prediction by any means. But def worth a popcorn" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 22:24:26 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"All else equal PPI leads CPI by X months depending on corporate inventory cycle (2-6 depending on durability/shelf-life of goods). Core goods PPI remains at +0.3% MoM but is strongly offset by -XXX% in freight logistics/warehousing (been averaging -XXX% over the past X months reflecting freight recession). Other notable line items: - Significant decline in retailing margins in key products (Computer -XXX% MoM / TV & electronics -XXXX% / Auto -5.4%). Key contributor to the -XXX% core services print. - Airline passenger services (this goes into PCE not the CPI equivalent): -XXX% MoM (-0.9%" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 13:24:16 UTC 10.4K followers, 3252 engagements
"One can argue whether this case on Fed renovation is meritless or not but what seems certain to me at this stage is that July FOMC presser is gonna be lit with or without Powell" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 21:39:55 UTC 10.5K followers, 2080 engagements
"I trust Koreans will front-run US boomers tonight. 🤣" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 21:52:51 UTC 10.5K followers, 4283 engagements
"Dan and I have a differing view on summer inflation/deflation but his inputs are always insightful. I agree that the overall verdict from June figures is inconclusive with lots of other external moving pieces to consider as the summer progresses" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 13:30:40 UTC 10.4K followers, 1497 engagements
"With the event that transpired today the July FOMC presser just got upgraded into a must-watch spectacle from a snoozefest. (With remote but nonzero probability of not seeing Powell at the podium) IOW this a long winded way of me saying this is no longer a risk-free bet" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 16:36:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 1528 engagements
"@TheFoolishPig Retail sales matter when mkt cares about growth inflection. Also one of the most insightful tools for fundamental research. Right now NFP and CPI matter more because they drive the Feds behavior. Function of the mkts focus on rates move versus GDP" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 13:47:21 UTC 10.4K followers, 1039 engagements
"Well GDP is still positive thru 6-7% deficit spending. Private sector and consumers are pinched but not recessionary. As long as GDP is growing and AI future growth prospect remains unbroken the mkts faith in the equities will stay intact. The risk is really on the bond/repo mkts ability to handle the deficit/Treasury issuance" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-03 15:02:50 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements
"When Japan June PPI missed you knew this miss on exports and trade balance was coming. (Note: XX% decline in exports to the US is not surprising but X% decline in exports to China is a big tell on how RMBs relative depreciation against non-dollar fx is helping China against other exporting nations)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 23:58:16 UTC 10.5K followers, 5852 engagements
"@itsyerboynico @igetredpilled @realjohnperi" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 00:05:23 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"Worth noting: The Inspector General overseeing this investigation is Michael Horowitz who during his tenure at the DOJ wrote pretty critical reports on the FBIs conducts during FISAgate/Russiagate/Clinton investigations that led to the firing of Comeys lieutenants. No evidence that he is a partisan but he will find dirts if they exist" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 16:22:31 UTC 10.3K followers, 2043 engagements
"@BlueBird_Invest I am not saying it was a bad decision but you would have done much much better if you put your down payment on equities and cryptos. As someone who both bought at X% 30Y FRM and also played around with liquid assets I feel the difference pretty starkly" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 15:17:21 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"Industrials and wholesalers have faster inventory turnover cycles (1-2 months) than retailers (2-6 months). Probably can extend that by another month but incremental storage and warehouse capacity is a constraint. The June PPI number (three months into tariffs) is def baking in a sizable tariff impact certainly more than the CPI" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 15:00:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 1231 engagements
"@TradFidiGuy Fiat debasement is half of my crypto long thesis (Genius Act and mass public adoption the other half)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 16:24:44 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"The stagflation of the 1970s occurred because of the two unique factors (alongside the Feds loose policy). (1) Big jump in oil price (energy demand is highly inelastic) and (2) inflexible labor mkt (unions) that made wage growth much more sensitive to future inflation expectation rather than normal supply/demand (hence we saw wage growth supporting inflation despite high UR) We have a very different labor market today than in the 70s. Wage growth is the make or break component of this inflation/deflation debate. No wage growth = no inflation (unless crude pops up)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 12:33:02 UTC 10.5K followers, 4549 engagements
"Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 23:03:41 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements
"The post-COVID asset allocation decision remains one of the most consequential factors affecting many peoples net worth. What seemed like prudent financial advice at the time - over-equitized home purchase - has in hindsight come with significant opportunity cost compared to investments in equities and cryptos. And that is exactly what median Americans did" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 15:05:39 UTC 10.5K followers, 2875 engagements
"Some retail sales reports matter more than the others. June is not one of them. Not surprised by the markets meh reaction. The months that matter are (in descending order of importance) - Nov and Dec: holiday season (duh) - Jul and Aug: peak summer travel-related spendings/back to school shopping and Amazon Prime Days - May: Graduation season / Mothers Day and Memorial Day sales" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 13:33:56 UTC 10.5K followers, 1943 engagements
"$2.7t is the target bank reserve level at which the Fed according to Waller plans to stop QT. As of last wk the combined balance of the TGA RRP and bank reserves stood at $3.9t. Assuming $850b goes to the TGA and $2.7t remains with the banks that leaves roughly $300b of incremental T-bill/deficit absorption capacity within the domestic financial system. That equates to 2-3 months worth of deficits = Aug-Sep which is also when US expects to fill up the TGA. In other words the US govt has that much time to find new sources of T-bill demand before it must rely on the Feds SRF. Since tapping the" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-10 17:37:48 UTC 10.5K followers, 2381 engagements
"I have been getting pretty robust feedback on my various posts about PPI (really appreciate the interest) and I am realizing there are some important nuances in the US PPI figures that are worth pointing out: X. The US PPI is quite unique compared to most other countries in that it is very heavily weighted towards services. In almost every other nation the PPI is entirely goods-based. In contrast the US PPI is XX% weighted toward services (80% for core PPI). This composition structurally dilutes much of the inflationary impact of tariffs on goods. X. In most countries (including China) the" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 00:50:30 UTC 10.5K followers, 10.5K engagements
"TGA targeting $500b by end of July and $XXX by Sep. We start at $313b before the OBBB passage so we are looking at about $180b/month pace over the next three months. Worth noting in 2023 it took five months (May thru Oct) to refill TGA from $50b to $800b or about $150b/month" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-09 01:19:26 UTC 10.5K followers, 5405 engagements
"@Alimasubway Plenty of reasons to own crypto rn aside from Powell ouster. Gold is the better system risk off assets (at least in the initial drawdown phase)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 03:45:13 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"I continue to believe Japan will be the last country to cut a deal if at all. They simply cannot afford any tariffs nor any structural JPY appreciation" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 00:05:38 UTC 10.4K followers, 3095 engagements
"@kl3dger @alphaporgs Yup. 13-15% effective tariffs right now with $360b annualized tariff at June runrate. We now have tariffs staring to hit our shelves" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-10 15:37:00 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K. But I am genuinely curious why the spike in Jan which may also be applicable to July" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 23:06:35 UTC 10.5K followers, 1065 engagements
"Despite a fair bit of TBill issuance surge this wk the latest TGA balance (as of end of this Wed) stands at $311b vs $313b last Friday (pre-OBBB passage) TGA refill has not yet started in earnest yet. In case you are wondering about plumbing liquidity as of right now" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-11 03:20:45 UTC 10.5K followers, 2595 engagements
"We already have tariffs equal to 13-15% global rates per sellside estimates. The ultimate final tariff rate is indeed a question mark but pt here is we already have tariffs coming in ($70b+ in Q2 $360b/yr on June runrate) and that means this summer data should give us a clue on whether tariffs are inflationary. That is what Powell was pointing at in last FOMC presser. If there are no real tariffs in the summer what is the pt of his statement that he was going to look into summer inflation data for tariff impact" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-10 15:20:13 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements
"* No Trading Advice on JPM. Strictly trying to make an illustrative point on bank's increasing reliance on repo and ST borrowings JPMs Net Repo Liabilities + ST Borrowing: (negative = higher liabilities) Q3 2024: -$49b Q4 2024: -$55b Q1 2025: -$168b Q2 2025: -$190b" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-15 12:28:59 UTC 10.5K followers, 3054 engagements
"China always has the currency appreciation card to tame inflation. Also coal (which China has ample domestic supply) and oil should continue to be supportive for low energy px. Also high probability imo that we see RMB become a viable reserve currency within 10yrs imo. Obv that is a political question so hard to predict exact timing on that" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 14:08:41 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"The stockings did matter no doubt. But I think gold import was just as big as the inventory stockings if I believe Atlanta Fed. In any case where I agree is that we have not yet seen the full impact and June cpi/ppi results are largely inconclusive for the overall inflation/deflation debate" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 15:18:13 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"He says a lot of things as you know. But I am going by two things he has preached from the 80s. Immigration control and bringing structural trade deficits down. The latter can only be structurally solved by lower USD in the end but before he gets there he does need to extract dollars from overseas to finance his deficits so squeeze then reset is the potential pathway I see" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 13:30:29 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Yes the breakdown matters. Final consumer goods def matters and are inflating true. And that moves pce. (Notable offset on auto import deflation) On the industrial supplies a large part of that is being driven by increased px in plastics steel and wool fabrics which are just one step away from raw commodity px. Plastic is practically crude and wool is having output issues from Australia. Also offset by disinflating capital goods" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 15:47:53 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements
"@allsgut 🤣 That rally is unreal over there" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 13:08:06 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"@roninrhino My suspicion has def grown after this" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 18:10:26 UTC 10.5K followers, 12.3K engagements
"Who knows but max $5b/mth unwind of Treasury is pretty symbolic at this pt (+$35b/month of MBS) But if you want an illustrative framework Reserves stand at $3.4t +$200b of RRP = $3.6t Of that $500b has to go fill the TGA. That leaves $3.1t left. If we use Wallers $2.7t as the limit that is $400b of TBills capacity that the domestic banking system can soak up. At $2trillion annual deficits (or $170b/month) that gives us at least X more months till QT ends" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 00:42:35 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"Same yoy growth as Q1 but internals are more domestically oriented/higher quality (consumptions outpacing FAI and NX). NX contributes XX% of total GDP growth this quarter vs. XX% Trade balance as % of total GDP in Q2 is X% vs. X% in Q1" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-15 02:53:40 UTC 10.5K followers, 2696 engagements
"BTC rally this cycle began from Oct 2023 at $27K. The real catalyst that really drove this rally into hypergear was the spot ETF approval that came in Jan 2024 and institutional money started coming in. Genius/Clarity Acts may likely do the same for (select) altcoins" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:30:03 UTC 10.5K followers, 1792 engagements
"See the charts below (yoy then mom) to see PPI trends ytd among the four key exporting nations of the world (China/Germany/Japan/Korea) Note how all four are showing negative MoM starting in May. Courtesy of ChatGPT" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-10 04:03:20 UTC 10.4K followers, 2474 engagements
"I certainly see what China has done with Argentina and Russia. Picking and choosing who to save from the oncoming dollar assault. Commodity rich EM countries (ASEAN esp) should get major help from China when that time comes. Hard to say the same for EU and Japan (which I suspect are US' real targets for liquidity extraction anyway)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:12:23 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@market_sleuth Totally fair. Whether he walks the walk is still a big question mark. I am strictly referring to his chance at the SCOTUS" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 20:04:29 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"It basically disincentivizes folks from using Tether. TBD if US cracks them down hard (very good national security reasons to do so) that will cause some severe corrections in crypto near term or they try to gradually manage Tethers decline into irrelevance (which is the better economic argument). I do lean on the former and that affects my position sizing but does not affect my secular long term thesis" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:43:35 UTC 10.5K followers, 1172 engagements
"Highly unlikely unless there is fraud All I know at this pt is that there is now nonzero probability of this happening" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 16:05:55 UTC 10.4K followers, 3821 engagements
"@BTCDadThoughts That divide is almost religious. Even more so than gold vs btc imo. Plenty of rooms for multuple winners. I am long crypto mkt cap" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:45:16 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Did a heckuva job as a prosecutor to get Diddy acquitted of sex trafficking and racketeering" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 23:42:24 UTC 10.4K followers, 2550 engagements
"Important but with a caveat. PPI does not include final imported goods. However headline PPI does incorporate: X. Domestic producers price responses to tariffs X. Intermediate imported goods (like auto parts) that are used in the production of final domestic goods. 2/3 of US imports are raw materials and intermediate goods; only 1/3 final X. Logistics wholesale and retail margins on imported goods which are not insignificant. (Logistics accounts for XX% of total consumer prices; typical retail gross margins range from 25%-35%) So not XXX% but PPI does capture a significant portion of the" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 13:57:19 UTC 10.4K followers, 9364 engagements
"@RaymieMark It always was. Just now out in the open without any pretense" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 23:30:24 UTC 10.5K followers, XX engagements
"@Alimasubway $1.5b market cap for Fartcoin ($10b for Trump) I dont trade much memecoins. Just observing" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 20:51:40 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements
"Worth noting that BTC is still trading $120K while altcoins are in the green. This suggests that much of the recent move may be driven by OG BTC holders rotating into ETH XRP and others. Hard to say whether this rotation is a prelude to the long-speculated Tether crackdown. However if there is one interest group in the US with more influence than the financial sector it is the national security establishment" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 13:22:28 UTC 10.5K followers, 3233 engagements
"@LordPos3idon @TheFoolishPig I am gonna outsource this to chatgpt. It smooths out over six months so really lagging" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 22:45:08 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements
"Last post on PPI (since we have retail sales to deal with tomorrow). Intermediate PPI (4 stages) shown here with core goods portion at each stage highlighted below. Interestingly showing meaningful slowdown on Stage X and X which should embed some intermediate goods imports that are tariffed. Stage 4: +0.1% MoM from +0.4% MoM prior - This includes auto parts and machineries Stage 3: -XXX% from +0.6% prior - Refined metal products like HRC bars and fabricated materials Stage 2: +0.4% from XXX% prior - Raw chemicals plastics and commodities. As you can see crude px spike did have an impact" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:39:37 UTC 10.4K followers, 2739 engagements
"Final vote tomorrow it looks like. My LT thesis on crypto: overall secular bullish more upside for select alts (TBD) than BTC My 1-3 month thesis: Watch out for potential Tether and Eurodollar/plumbing disruptions. X Factor near term: Trump vs Powell" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 18:32:40 UTC 10.4K followers, 1965 engagements
"All the recent altcoin craze has somehow escaped Trumpcoin (-87% from ATH) 🤔" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 20:41:42 UTC 10.5K followers, 41.7K engagements
"The internals show that govt hiring hiding significant prvt sector slowdown Private employment: (74K vs 100K cons /137K prior (revised from 140K) Ditto Mfg (-7K vs -2K cons / -7K prior) The delta comes from Govt employment +73K vs last months -1K. Federal govt is shedding 7K but states and locals added 70K. Extrapolation will suggest continued slowdown in the private sectors so it has a bearish bent on future NFPs. But for the time being very clear verdict that there are no cuts coming anytime soon and the matrix can celebrate the ostensibly healthy US economy" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-03 12:48:46 UTC 10.4K followers, 15.2K engagements
"@FenrirFunds That is right. But another way of saying that is: the bar for tariffs being a significant inflationary factor is very high and there are plenty of rooms for services to absorb tariff impact on goods" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 00:56:03 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over XX yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 18:07:54 UTC 10.5K followers, 326.6K engagements
"@JZ281C Really comes down to the willingness question. Capability is there just not a comfortable transition" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:13:50 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"Obv not XXX% as it will likely be used as a credible threat/leverage pt to extract a consensual currency deal first but absent the deal the dollar nuke option has to be part of the table. I explain the logic below. Point is the harsher and more violent the dollar selloff it inevitably leads to even more violent dollar squeeze as the RoW system runs short of dollar needed to fund their financial system's daily liquidity. We can chat more tomorrow" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:19:58 UTC 10.4K followers, XXX engagements
"@pivotclearr Help me out by pointing out where you these numbers from the full report. I gave you where I got mine and it matches how Bloomberg sees the PPI weighting (see the red box at the lower right corner)" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 04:30:31 UTC 10.4K followers, XX engagements
"When the dollar is flush with liquidity you are correct. But once the trade balance declines and the current account surplus no longer generates enough dollars to sustain local monetary base growth a eurodollar shortage will become a thing. In the end the RoW's financial system runs on a 50-year accumulation of current account surplus dollars. That is the fundamental root of their monetary base. One exception is China. China has enough gold a manufacturing base that produces goods other countries want very little debts owed to foreigners and bilateral trade relationships with commodity-rich" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:01:01 UTC 10.5K followers, XXX engagements
"QEs side effect is always the risk of inflation. After all QE is the Feds most powerful weapon against deflation. Whether QE actually causes inflation depends largely on the broader economic context - specifically whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment. This time the debate is obv on tariffs long term effect. It is worth highlighting two case studies btw: QE after the GFC did not lead to significant inflation because the world was recovering from one of the biggest debt-deflationary crises in history. Demand was constrained due to elevated unemployment and there was" @yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 03:21:44 UTC 10.5K followers, 1323 engagements