#  @yieldsearcher Mr. VIX Mr. VIX posts on X about in the, market, inflation, japan the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +261% - [--] Month [---------] +307% - [--] Months [----------] +92% - [--] Year [----------] +1,131% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] -11% - [--] Month [---] +53% - [--] Months [-----] +90% - [--] Year [-----] +232% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +1.20% - [--] Month [------] +8.60% - [--] Months [------] +94% - [--] Year [------] +602% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::48034640/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #3433 [countries](/list/countries) 13.95% [stocks](/list/stocks) 7.91% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.28% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #6829 [currencies](/list/currencies) 3.72% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 2.09% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.93% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.93% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 0.7% **Social topic influence** [in the](/topic/in-the) 10.7%, [market](/topic/market) #556, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #88, [japan](/topic/japan) 6.28%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 6.05%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #433, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.12%, [china](/topic/china) 4.42%, [deflation](/topic/deflation) #16, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 3.95% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@garyhaubold](/creator/undefined) [@noruserious](/creator/undefined) [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@jz281c](/creator/undefined) [@fixedincquant](/creator/undefined) [@cessnadriver50](/creator/undefined) [@stockmomo](/creator/undefined) [@texasoncologist](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@tradfidiguy](/creator/undefined) [@econstratpb](/creator/undefined) [@derivativesdon](/creator/undefined) [@jeremie0117](/creator/undefined) [@doejistar](/creator/undefined) [@winnerinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@eggwalkingdog](/creator/undefined) [@juticewhizzer](/creator/undefined) [@american_42069](/creator/undefined) [@fallacyalarm](/creator/undefined) [@winninglibtards](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "You know the rate bulls are having a good day when even Goolsbee is conceding on the possibility of future rate cuts. Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation. Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022424002434904296) 2026-02-13T21:33Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Leaving aside that this is one empirical data point (which is fine) the inflation referenced here is really PPI. If he could raise px to customers by 10%+ hed be fine. But Truflation and CPI PPI suggest otherwise. Hence a biz margin issue while CPI stays contained. Here is truflation's estimate of inflation. I spoke with a restaurant owner yesterday who said if you look at all inputs (taxes labor insurance supplies and food) that inflation is easily 10% yoy. I think everything is a lie and we are living in a simulation created to support https://t.co/tTHBbGs1mA Here is truflation's estimate" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022716455213752336) 2026-02-14T16:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@deerpointmacro KRE has done well. Big banks not so much" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2023076077577687523) 2026-02-15T16:44Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "Makes a lot of fundamental sense. I think there isa populist narrative at play here that reappears almost every midterm year. Trumps reflationary policies help contain loan losses (which explains KRE outperformance) while his populist rhetoric makes big banks the juiciest targets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023080108677075443 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023080108677075443" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2023080108677075443) 2026-02-15T17:00Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909296235393302698) 2025-04-07T17:24Z 21.2K followers, 311.9K engagements "Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over [--] yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is. A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946270722231292333) 2025-07-18T18:07Z 21.2K followers, 356.8K engagements "For those not familiar to credit here is some reference: Implied default prob (over 5Y) for CDS: - 50bp: 4% - 100: 8% (ORCL) - 200: 16% - 300: 23% - 400: 29% - 500: 35% - 600: 40% (CRWV) - 700: 45% Compare this to: BBB cash spread: 110bp BB: [---] B: [---] CCC: [---] How to calculate default probability when looking at CDS spreads. $CRWV $ORCL https://t.co/OR7qLWZsPj How to calculate default probability when looking at CDS spreads. $CRWV $ORCL https://t.co/OR7qLWZsPj" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989081652929393135) 2025-11-13T21:23Z 21.2K followers, 232.2K engagements "Zero afternoon $106b RRP vs $75b SRF. Interesting to see both jump together like this. Aggregate liquidity fine but maybe some uneven distribution That is a big jump in RRP (9/30 was at $49b; 11/28 at $2b). SRF afternoon session worth a watch. Due in [--] min. That is a big jump in RRP (9/30 was at $49b; 11/28 at $2b). SRF afternoon session worth a watch. Due in [--] min" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2006439255602770261) 2025-12-31T18:56Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Ironically despite the carnage in software which is private credits largest sector exposure (15-25%) today was a good day for BDCs generally up 1% today. Seems like no algos have figured out this link yet. SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2007199564445692336) 2026-01-02T21:17Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "This is the current dilemma in the market. Trump wants low rates and a weak dollar. However the global bond and FX markets are only willing to give him one of them while the equity market is pricing in as if he will get both through a cyclicals rally. One of them is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2014818706426077246) 2026-01-23T21:53Z 21K followers, 12.2K engagements "NYC (NYISO Zone J) wholesale power px went above $1000/MWh between 7am and 9am. Currently at $300. Hope you turned off your radiators on time this morning" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015111577687536032) 2026-01-24T17:16Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Lets hope the nations grid makes it through the next [--] hours intact. Otherwise the public backlash against data centers could become very energized" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015230049213944088) 2026-01-25T01:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The only thing that honestly surprises me about $5000 gold and $100 silver is that nothing broke along the way not even one high-profile hedge fund casualty. $20t of market value creation over the past [--] months and no one got carried out on the shorts. Remarkable" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2015570981142601965) 2026-01-25T23:42Z 21.2K followers, 247.5K engagements "Worth noting: - Goods/imports are only 20% of CPI in an 80% services economy - Post-Plaza $30 oil capped inflation - Must consider shift in demand (less discretionary spend offsets price hikes) - Weak DXY = deflation in the RoW (esp EU) partially offsetting inflation pressure. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016507373678972952) 2026-01-28T13:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016882479731228864) 2026-01-29T14:33Z 21K followers, 15.7K engagements "So if gold and silver are turning out to be levered equity betas and TLT is down on a day like this what is the flight to safety asset" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016896906685759800) 2026-01-29T15:31Z 21.2K followers, 36.9K engagements "Worth keeping an eye on. #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016965166215147693) 2026-01-29T20:02Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "A rule of thumb: companies typically do not cut staff when there is strong confidence in topline growth. Hence Mastercard laying off employees against a narrative of resilient consumer spending raises a question mark. Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016978435101376667) 2026-01-29T20:55Z 21.1K followers, 41.3K engagements "Would be pretty funny if AAPL missing on U.S. sales but finally beating on China sales ends up being the signal of a cyclical inflection of the two economies" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2016999223607120011) 2026-01-29T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Mortgage rates going to sub-3% (maybe even sub-2%) is the only way this housing market works itself out without causing a px decline. So we are going to compress the mortgage/long rates extra hard before the midterm. That is practically the message here. Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're not gonna destroy the value of their homes so that somebody who didn't work very hard can buy a home." https://t.co/V3cviRAO3F Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017010151740354879) 2026-01-29T23:01Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty remarkable as we are facing: - Parabolic move in gold and silver - Dollar acting volatile - Trump Fed selection tomorrow - Potential govt shutdown this wknd (coin flip according to Polymarket) - Attack on Iran probably this wknd VIX is at 16-handle and MOVE at 60" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017103757780128179) 2026-01-30T05:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "PCE est should go down directionally given airfares and healthcare are lower than the corresponding CPI figures for Dec. Dec CPI/PPI show heavier inflation in services than in goods. Typical seasonality (holiday sales on goods but on-peak travels). This reverts in Jan. PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017234527488278859) 2026-01-30T13:52Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "For those who reflexively think hot PPIhot CPI From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 What happened Core PPI: 1.7% 4.5% thru Lehman Core CPI: 2.7% 2.4% before collapsing. Consumers can balk; demand elasticity / margin compression are things. Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break. https://t.co/hVX12o9O0U Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017245952445145304) 2026-01-30T14:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017279601567842699) 2026-01-30T16:51Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements "Today is a perfect storm where CME speculators are getting carried out and more: - GC on 5% margin vs -11% move - SI on 10% vs -28% Forced liquidations everywhere. But the risk here is flushing out paper traders invite physical buyers accelerating delivery drawdowns. Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk. https://t.co/rRXPxZwrzx Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017300114981667208) 2026-01-30T18:13Z 21K followers, 11.8K engagements "Jan Total Return: Equities: smallcap/cyclicals megacap/tech SPY: +1.5% QQQ: +1.2% IWM: +5.5% Fixed Income: creditrates TLT: -0.03% IEF: -0.2% LQD: +0.3% HYG: +0.6% PM: no comment GLD: +12% SLV: +17% Crypto: 4th straight red mth IBIT: -4.4% ETHA: -10% XRP: -6.2% SOL: -6.0%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017353757365805421) 2026-01-30T21:46Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "The fuel was there for sure (erratic and big swings showing lack of liquidity the past few days). I am not shocked to see the drawdown. But what are the odds that LME and HSBC (HK bullion dealer) have major outage on the crucial last day of the physical delivery deadline and circuitbreaker mysteriously does not trigger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017380707828404649) 2026-01-30T23:33Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Took Richard Nixon to make a deal with China. Took Bismarck to institute social security in Germany. Took Begin and Sadat for Israel and Egypt to make peace. Hardliner credential can be an asset in convincing the market of the merits of a dovish path. @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of randoms on my feed gushing over him. Is it because he is Volcker-lite will help usher in stablecoins or will he do what Trump tells him to do These seem mutually incompatible. But the real effect in floating him seems to be tightening financial @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017641491355652189) 2026-01-31T16:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Seeing PM crash yesterday and now crypto making its unusual wknd crash with BTC now 80K I am def asking this question. Did something break" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017668066251841670) 2026-01-31T18:35Z 21K followers, 26K engagements "X has been near unusable for almost the entire day for me. Apologies for not being as responsive" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017735952588824972) 2026-01-31T23:05Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Starting to lose track of the layoff tracker the past two wks. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017747151514698035) 2026-01-31T23:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Note clothing one of the heaviest inflated items due to tariffs deflating in Jan after holiday season is over. You typically do not see this unless retailers have excess seasonal inventories to get rid of before their fiscal yr end (Jan month end) US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from 1.24% to 0.86% in our independent price data the lowest since [----]. Truflation US CPI today: 0.86% Y/Y The biggest downward drivers were: [--]. Utilities down -0.13% [--]. Clothing -0.08% [--]. Housing -0.05% [--]. Transport -0.05% [--]. Food https://t.co/HFef56JGyl US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017971994474467716) 2026-02-01T14:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Las Vegas December stats Worst hotel occupancy since Jan [--]. Note the ADR and RevPar deflating significantly. For reference CPI Dec Lodging: -0.8% YoY" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2017999422655787286) 2026-02-01T16:32Z 21K followers, 13.7K engagements "Total Revenue per Available Seat Miles (TRASM) is a great proxy for the airline fare trend. Q4 Results - UAL: -1.6% YoY - DAL: -0.2% - AAL: -1.6% - LUV: -0.2% - JBLU: +0.2% Avg: -0.7% vs. Dec PPI airfare going into the PCE: +1.7% 🤷 But airfares are deflating that is clear" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018007162786643989) 2026-02-01T17:02Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@MillennialRisk Discretionary services and housing ARE deflating though. You disagree Goods are high yes but that is 20% of the total weighting" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018007819702726729) 2026-02-01T17:05Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "The degree of attacks against this tells me how much FinTwit is going to be caught offside soon. It is the slope of the descent and the composition of the move not the figure that matter. Not to mention seasonally Jan is the seasonal peak. Go check Feds Nowcast (0.1%/2.4%) We're seeing significant cooling across all our independent US inflation indexes: US CPI today: 0.86% (drop from 1.24% yesterday) US PCE today: 1.18% US Core PCE today: 1.38% US BLS Comparison CPI: 0.29% (obtained by applying the BLS CPI weighting and categories to our price https://t.co/ByjcfPOH4F We're seeing significant" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018018221991788547) 2026-02-01T17:46Z 21.1K followers, 29.5K engagements "Inevitable but first China must liberalize the currency and capital controls allow FX appreciation and be willing to run current-account deficits for the RoW. Most importantly for CCP it must brace for a booming wealthy middle class less reliant/obedient to the state. JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018032555887411469) 2026-02-01T18:43Z 21.2K followers, 21.3K engagements "I am sitting as clueless as the guy next door but all I can say is when things feel lost the 2Y and DXY are the two one-eyed men in the land of the blind" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018204965047619618) 2026-02-02T06:08Z 21K followers, 10.8K engagements "Only so much crypto you can sell to cover your margin losses on PMs. Less than 5% of the overall equity market. Not a big buffer before it spills over to the equities. Hunt Brothers liquidation almost drove MS and ML to BK before the Fed stepped in. The gold and silver liquidation on Friday is a much bigger $ loss. Not saying this is a SHTF moment but I am saying vigilance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018207347592589313) 2026-02-02T06:18Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The new margin requirement for GC and SI are 8% and 15% respectively. The spots are -9% and -14% right now. Hunt Bro liquidation almost drove ML and MS to BK. This is bigger in $ losses. Crypto (5% of equity mkt) too small to be a buffer. This can get ugly. Lets see" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018211860982427924) 2026-02-02T06:36Z 21.1K followers, 16.6K engagements "8%/15% margins not good enough for this vol. Would not shock me if CME raises the margin requirement again this wk. BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018300728234668078) 2026-02-02T12:29Z 21K followers, 24.6K engagements "I remember FinTwit disparaging Truflation when it started picking up in [----]. And again when it inflected from the peak in [--]. The numbers may be off but Truflation has caught major inflection pts in the past five yrs. A move this significant is worth a heed. Mainstream doesn't know anything about Truflation. However it's certainly been an excellent prediction on the coming trend in PCE and more importantly CPI because THAT's what mainstream does know. Falling below 2% would be something but crashing towards 0% would be even more https://t.co/cEnnSkMO8Y Mainstream doesn't know anything about" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018337899024879702) 2026-02-02T14:57Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements "Who knew issuing more equities is positive for equities ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower. ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018365810566168783) 2026-02-02T16:48Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018451064429928816) 2026-02-02T22:26Z 21K followers, 19.6K engagements "Now we have GS confirming current disinflationary trends already observed by Truflation and Fed Nowcast. GS Core Inflation Tracker 2.0% https://t.co/AMTO0ot9P6 GS Core Inflation Tracker 2.0% https://t.co/AMTO0ot9P6" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018462500057202693) 2026-02-02T23:12Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@NickTimiraos Nondurable goods inflation is real but we have been seeing persistent dis/deflation in services and durables. And services is the far bigger component of the inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018651863600734347) 2026-02-03T11:44Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Most hawkish thing I heard from Miran 😂 Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018686941424652686) 2026-02-03T14:04Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Think of what PE firms love to buy: Asset/capex-light Process/labor intensive bottlenecks that allow for high recurring rents High operating leverage (higher revenue = higher margins) How does this survive post-AI Tangible assets = moat rings true in more ways than one. Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash With Zombie Firms Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile their investors are losing https://t.co/DFh57p6FQs Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018735617719321006) 2026-02-03T17:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Homebuilders are willing to expand supplies risking lower margins (but to be offset with higher volume). Q is: what will Trump give them in return (Also Trump prob knows housing px decline is unavoidable. I maintain he is managing the pace of deflation not run it hot.) *MAJOR BUILDERS SAID TO WEIGH PLAN FOR [--] MILLION 'TRUMP HOMES' *MAJOR BUILDERS SAID TO WEIGH PLAN FOR [--] MILLION 'TRUMP HOMES'" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018739063730389004) 2026-02-03T17:31Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Bullish Banana Republic Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018739366688907688) 2026-02-03T17:32Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "IWM green. Entirely conceivable that this is the yr fundamental value analysts finally outperform this year yet earn no bonuses because their tech-focused colleagues drag down the fund" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018790127930392859) 2026-02-03T20:54Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "CMG -9% guiding to flat comp (vs +2% cons) in [----]. There goes the consumers discretionary services spending" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2018794609263169992) 2026-02-03T21:11Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "There may be some seasonal noise here (given the weather) but Jan Auto sales SAAR at 14.85m lowest since Mar [--]. Looks like auto inflation will be weak this month" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019059228191690854) 2026-02-04T14:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Pretty interesting that XHB +13% ytd as IEF (7-10yr Treasuries) -0.4%. One of them is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019086831854247984) 2026-02-04T16:33Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019105211168837658) 2026-02-04T17:46Z 21K followers, 204.1K engagements "Tfw your sushi pickup came without wasabi It is that kind of a day" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019105646856061408) 2026-02-04T17:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "The bar is not low but Google can save the mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019115262008782872) 2026-02-04T18:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "USDT depeg widening almost near 5y low (.9980). Not liking this at all" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019138171527917622) 2026-02-04T19:57Z 21.2K followers, 86.1K engagements "@GaryHaubold Good q. I do not know but we are playing with fire. This is as TBTF in the crypto space as it gets. But if the US really wants to impose its will and institutionalize the space it must break or silo away Tether" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019162226666664059) 2026-02-04T21:32Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "No recession just means exactly that: no negative GDP growth. Does not mean no pain/chaos in the economy. Think of the lvl of disruption if these $1t+ investment takes even just 10% ($100b+/yr) away from the rest of the economy (like SaaS). Twitter and nuance = oil and water. Hyperscaler Capex for 2026: META: $125b ($70b) GOOG: $180b ($91b) AMZN: $175b ($125b) MSFT: $145b ($83b) ORCL: $55b ($35b) Total: $680b ($404b) Almost $300b or 1% of GDP growth in capex from just these five companies Hard to have a recession with that capex binge. Hyperscaler Capex for 2026: META: $125b ($70b) GOOG:" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019187587626516927) 2026-02-04T23:13Z 21.2K followers, 11.1K engagements "This is a good chart. Shows you all five hyperscalers will be investing (some significantly) above their internal cash generation. Having a cheap cost of debt is a paramount national interest in more ways than one. @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019207432153469338) 2026-02-05T00:32Z 21.2K followers, 16.9K engagements "He raises a good point. PC is a major overweight for most asset allocators with significant current liabilities (pensions insurers everyone except endowments). Excess return over UST with zero vol = amazing Sharpe ratio until default risk shows up But they own no PM. 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019221496452018421) 2026-02-05T01:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "This shitpost alone has more interactions than my every other posts today combined. X is a wild place 😂 BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019231882429493384) 2026-02-05T02:09Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Whats up with silver" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019244200810934574) 2026-02-05T02:58Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "He forgot to add: But a second job. JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job" JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job"" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019257128477946363) 2026-02-05T03:49Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "HY spreads (white) vs. VIX (blue) While the mkt is expressing displeasure in software credit via loan ETFs/BDCs/PE firms public credit remains relatively calm. Absent an acute credit stress (imminent defaults) little reason for the Fed to act; also why rates remain steady" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019263093067641181) 2026-02-05T04:13Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "VIX curve finally backwardated. Have not seen that in a long while" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019403036511334526) 2026-02-05T13:29Z 21.2K followers, 21.1K engagements "So here is the interesting part of the Challenger report. Logistics (31K) and tech (22K) were obvious; those are UPS and AMZN. But right behind them was healthcare (17K) the most since Apr [----] (19K). This is a new data pt. If HC is rolling over there goes the labor mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019408161044844937) 2026-02-05T13:49Z 21K followers, 13.4K engagements "Tom Lee making a super strong case to be added to the ranks of fellow Korean legends like Bill Hwang Masa Son and Do Kwon. Tom Lees Ethereum loss approaches $10 billion #MacroEdge Tom Lees Ethereum loss approaches $10 billion #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019417045981401350) 2026-02-05T14:25Z 21.2K followers, 142.6K engagements "Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019499087821742483) 2026-02-05T19:51Z 21.2K followers, 11.9K engagements "Core PCE MoM Jan 2025: +0.31% Feb 2025: +0.45% Cleveland Feds Core PCE Nowcast: Jan 2026: +0.23% Feb 2026: +0.23% By their estimate they see core PCE going to 2.5% from 2.8% by end of Feb. If the Feds own est is right March cut is very much live" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019506721069179077) 2026-02-05T20:21Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "I was half-joking when I said cryptos golden age was possible only after liquidating Saylor and/or Tether" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019537729122627844) 2026-02-05T22:24Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Why Bessent was hired. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The https://t.co/l0eAjPT5Ky U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019558799850500326) 2026-02-05T23:48Z 21K followers, 19.8K engagements "We just had a back-to-back-to-back triple punch on labor mkt today (Challenger IJC JOLTS) leading to the classic recessionary reaction of rates rally + equity selloff. Now imagine had we not had a [--] day shutdown wed all be on Xanax anxiously waiting for NFP tomorrow. In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺 JOLTS December job openings 🔻 https://t.co/ujtF1exgrr In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019560610539954447) 2026-02-05T23:55Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Nobody is an atheist in THIS mkt. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019564386965455118) 2026-02-06T00:10Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Installment payment stream on another installment payment stream. What stage JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC. JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019816370180092342) 2026-02-06T16:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Feds Jefferson seeing labor mkt as a greater risk than inflation. Note the last feed where he sees very little cushion left on the labor mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019833045797466343) 2026-02-06T17:58Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Isnt that the entire thesis NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019835304065265882) 2026-02-06T18:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@Cessnadriver50 TLT $200 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019841202909245942) 2026-02-06T18:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "ZIRP without a recession within two yrs is not a crazy thesis imo. Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019842678951702681) 2026-02-06T18:36Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "NFP next Wed and CPI Friday. If Trump wants to help the housing/economy for Main St and boost his electoral chances he needs to set the stage for turbo-charged rate cuts soon esp with cCPI about to lap tough Jan print (+0.45%) and the labor market still vulnerable" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019892289829494795) 2026-02-06T21:53Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "The worst part about this sentence is that this is the avg not the median. The average U.S. worker has $955 saved for retirement per CBS. The average U.S. worker has $955 saved for retirement per CBS" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019896043966447721) 2026-02-06T22:08Z 21.2K followers, 168.1K engagements "Unpopular opinion: todays move was frontrunning Japanese election this Sunday (+ some profit-taking short covering)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019898583089078669) 2026-02-06T22:18Z 21K followers, 17.9K engagements "@fallacyalarm Well Feb is the seasonally weak part of the yr. But seasonality went [---] degrees last yr so I am just living day by day" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2019944905196413380) 2026-02-07T01:22Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Strong and persistent deflation post-tariffs starting to kick in this yr. We lap tariff middle of this yr. Convexity hedging demand for duration pops once long rate goes down sufficiently as MBS duration collapses 10Y poised to benefit most as we run out of off the run supplies beginning this yr (no 30Y issued 15-20yrs ago). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020136153597255924) 2026-02-07T14:02Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Goods are flowing again. ISM and S&P Jan reports highlighted that industrials are restocking at the fastest pace since [----] despite lack of recovery in spot demand to date. But the fact that this is continuing into early Feb is indeed a promising sign. Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close out the week and are now at the highest levels they've been since October [----]. This is a remarkable freight market with no signs of slowing. It continues to reinforce the narrative that market tightness is not just a weather https://t.co/GFD56CCtix Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020141537267491021) 2026-02-07T14:24Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@WinningLibtards Non recessionary dis/deflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020146402811121978) 2026-02-07T14:43Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Great q. [--]. The manufacturing is showing a recovery but this is 10% of the economy. Service sector still showing slowdown per the latest reports. [--]. ADP shows mfg shedding jobs but jobs is a lagging indicator. Back in [----] UR kept going up till Dec when S&P bottomed in Mar. @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020157413689630935) 2026-02-07T15:27Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@noruserious The uncertainty def weighs on the general sentiment but if ones view is that scotus is going to strike down tariffs you would wait on restocking. I think people are saying enuf we waited long enuf our inventory is too low time to restock and see how the yr progresses" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020160860623118450) 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@noruserious TBD but there are some signs that this can be real. Mkt obv thinking that too with cyclicals outperformance this yr" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020161893822812484) 2026-02-07T15:45Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@LarryVasqu99365 Open to that possibility. We will know for sure by end of the month" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020204378351890458) 2026-02-07T18:33Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Interesting precedent A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020205489397834039) 2026-02-07T18:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "A real name disclosure for once Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020210811159867883) 2026-02-07T18:59Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Quick math: Powell said without tariffs cPCE will be 2%. Implies 0.7% tariff impact will be lapped away by mid-yr. OER is at +3.4% in Dec. That is 15% of cPCE (-0.5%) and 35% of cCPI (-1.2%). Once we lap tariffs mid-yr and OER goes to [--] cPCE goes to 1.6% and cCPI 0.7%. Back under 0.9% - rents plunging but CPI wont show it for months: Back under 0.9% - rents plunging but CPI wont show it for months:" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020246500635472246) 2026-02-07T21:21Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Last yr HYG returned +8.6%. CCC returned 6%. Distressed credit returned -9%. From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020259585504997711) 2026-02-07T22:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "Not sure I buy Cramer here but Trump got into office with overwhelming support from crypto bros. Crypto is integral to keeping future UST bids alive. Pathway will never be linear (super volatile in fact) but how bonds and crypto fare by Nov will decide the midterm for DJT. Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard at $60k he's gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve." https://t.co/1VAAp2jK4d Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020276292428669071) 2026-02-07T23:19Z 21K followers, 10.5K engagements "@CapitalCrashout No crying in the casino" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020287743905919001) 2026-02-08T00:05Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "@nasdaq19500 The actual final result is secondary to the question of how much efforts will he put into pump things up" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020288047506682318) 2026-02-08T00:06Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Hunter Biden redemption arc in [----] was not on my bingo card. Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020293576337330464) 2026-02-08T00:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender. According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020301606869430418) 2026-02-08T01:00Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@DerivativesDon Well put. It really is about the growth" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020318799355080866) 2026-02-08T02:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@DerivativesDon The risk of course is that the Feds bias is to react once everything becomes blatantly obvious (ie late)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020320619053654248) 2026-02-08T02:15Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@PauloMacro And 90% would cheer for it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020334075785949303) 2026-02-08T03:09Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Long Thread: Vietnam War: East vs. Western Warfare The Vietnam War stands as a prototypical West-meets-East moment where the Wests inherent understanding of warfare was completely upended by a more nebulous Eastern style of engagement. American strategy exemplified by General Westmorelands fixation on kill ratios and decisive engagements treated war as an engineering problem in which force application and quantifiable success on the battlefield would inevitably beget victory. North Vietnam by contrast fought an entirely different war one in which strategy eclipsed tactics and political" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020363498446893160) 2026-02-08T05:06Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "While everyones attention is on Iran there seems to be a real proxy battle currently being fought in Iraq which is in the process of forming a new government. Not much news covering this but the situation seems grave enuf that Trump had to cover this topic publicly. Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020375967215296844) 2026-02-08T05:55Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "The North Vietnamese general Vo Nguyen Giap who oversaw Tet had this to say: The Tet Offensive was not a purely military action. Its main purpose was to influence American public opinion and force the U.S. government to change its policy. The Americans lost in Vietnam because they did not understand that they were fighting a political war. American public never recovered from seeing the embassy in the heart of the capital attacked in broad daylight" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020486495837032619) 2026-02-08T13:14Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@GaryHaubold Yes I remember his days. Def very sympathetic to Iran. The fact that there are forces willing to push for him despite Trumps objection says this is a big important fight for Iran" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020489605011685714) 2026-02-08T13:27Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "That is a legitimate critique: tariff pass-through is taking longer than expected and there is a risk that we may not fully lap these effects by midyear. The flip side however is that if firms have been unable to pass through much of the tariff impact after this long it raises the question of when/whether they will be able to do so. This suggests strong consumer resistance and high px elasticity which in itself argues that inflation in nondurables should be naturally contained. It is also notable that Truflation shows apparel and household items the two nondurable categories that experienced" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020493426798563828) 2026-02-08T13:42Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "@tdarling1 We did get December CPI last month. This one will be Jan. The PPI is still getting delayed a bit though" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020494266049393064) 2026-02-08T13:45Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "When you have 2/3 of the Diet the opposition here clearly means the FX and the bond markets not the politicians on the other side of the aisle. TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020494777243021544) 2026-02-08T13:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements "@JellyCrypto 155-160 ideally but if not she def prefers to see that higher" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020497048475488597) 2026-02-08T13:56Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@KQ992017 There are still US military forces in Iraq though" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020499656548212777) 2026-02-08T14:07Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Pretty remarkable. For a country known for consensus and harmony-seeking culture Japan is handing this government a level of political power concentration not seen since WWII maybe even since Meiji. The financial and geopolitical implications of this will not be trivial. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020521234706858473) 2026-02-08T15:32Z 21.1K followers, 15.7K engagements "@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef Makes sense. Obv the difference was Pearl Harbor was an undispited US territory that would rile up the US public while the farthest Tet got was the US embassy in Saigon" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020527749916512287) 2026-02-08T15:58Z 21K followers, [--] engagements "Katayama: It may be possible to tap FX reserves to fund state spending though this could create issues if reserves are also needed for intervention. This is very new and just as equally remarkable (at least to me). Japan is thinking of selling US assets to fund the stimulus. Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is in good dialogue with the BOJ BlackRock and IMF executives who understand Japans position. Finance Minister Katayama: Government will seek dialogue with markets on Monday as needed. Finance Minister Katayama: It may be possible Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020529089304551543) 2026-02-08T16:04Z 21.1K followers, 17.6K engagements "@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef I always find it ironic the two countries who were most enthusiastic about removing Chinese culture/characters out of their languages were none other than North Koreans and North Vietnamese" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020529708710924489) 2026-02-08T16:06Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@EdwardsRahmn @B2Balzer @TradFidiGuy The perfect goldilock setup" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020549256822608227) 2026-02-08T17:24Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "@InvestInJapan I see no fault in this logic" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020561670595104984) 2026-02-08T18:13Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@EconstratPB Best place in America imo. So surprising there is no major financial firm presence there" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020564411685929084) 2026-02-08T18:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs It is indeed the experience of many Americans but inflation means rate of increase which is clearly inflecting down. But that said I totally get it that after having accrued 30% inflation lost covid any inflation above zero is painful" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020566854343823712) 2026-02-08T18:34Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB San Diego All I see are Qualcomm engineers" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020567780202787281) 2026-02-08T18:37Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Where are you getting 4.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020571232911921248) 2026-02-08T18:51Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs So you are effectively saying real consumption growth is zero" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020574205532594677) 2026-02-08T19:03Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Dr_Gingerballs Not sure I agree with that but I get where you are going with this" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020575461718257847) 2026-02-08T19:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements "Takaichis political slogan Translates to Make Japan strong & prosperous Which takes its inspiration (albeit with less militaristic overtone) from the 19th c. Meiji modernization era slogan (Rich state strong army). The nationalism is back" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020589738986488117) 2026-02-08T20:05Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@MoarFunCoupons That was last Jan [----] core CPI MoM figure which we will lap in a wk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020620254737510584) 2026-02-08T22:06Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@ArsenalStu They want that inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020623761368850609) 2026-02-08T22:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Trump is clearly super happy about the Japanese election results" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020637811733409829) 2026-02-08T23:16Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "All this run it hot rhetoric is really a brake on a large deflationary wave. Takaichi has her work cut out for her" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020654647174991873) 2026-02-09T00:23Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Looks like someone is ready to revalue its currency upward. BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings." BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings."" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020839902171328619) 2026-02-09T12:39Z 21.1K followers, 15.2K engagements "Sentiment in Japan right now. Takaichi has 90% approval rating amongst those under [--]. We're going to revise the Japanese constitution and we're going to have an actual army. There will be no more communism in East Asia. https://t.co/XJJoTRWobn We're going to revise the Japanese constitution and we're going to have an actual army. There will be no more communism in East Asia. https://t.co/XJJoTRWobn" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020842967163130357) 2026-02-09T12:51Z 21.2K followers, 43.5K engagements "@TexasOncologist Japanese bond yields still affecting global term premia. So you got Japan and Hassett counteracting but different part of the curve showing different sensitivity. But these days anything within 5bp dtd move is par for the course" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020880526265971170) 2026-02-09T15:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Japan election out of the way Now the setup is such that we have Hassett lowering expectations for the payroll on Wed and Truflation suggesting a fair bit of risk of CPI coming cold on Fri. I do expect bond mkt to wake up from its slumber this wk. Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp) Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020882666548232340) 2026-02-09T15:29Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "Every DM term premia has been following Japans direction since late last yr. Every DM bond competing against Japan. Bessent practically told Japan to stop it when it got out of control a month ago when JGB 30Y was moving 20bp a day. But mkt more or less priced in Japan fiscal policy so q is what more left there near term. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020887014699078100) 2026-02-09T15:46Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "One of the rare days this yr where QQQ IWM led by softwares (IGV +3%)" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020896778162200801) 2026-02-09T16:25Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@JayLeonard 100% agreed. If mkt is willing to give me 100y paper I will issue that right there and then" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020912362446815731) 2026-02-09T17:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "All you folks trying to come up with exceptions to this are proving my pt here. Yes GE still exists and is paying their debts but it was a AAA-rated company for the longest time but now barely above BBB. Also they almost went BK in 2008; got bailed out. 100y is a long time. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020950215642018119) 2026-02-09T19:57Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@schwarzmaler20 Western Union trading like it is at risk of going extinct with crypto. GM creditors got equitized in 2008" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020956886208745711) 2026-02-09T20:24Z 21.2K followers, 22.6K engagements "This is starting to make more sense isnt it (Source: Truflation) Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020972978947883341) 2026-02-09T21:28Z 21.2K followers, 10.9K engagements "Does not preclude a big flush/reset before moon but crypto is without a doubt a strategic national interest. Only Q is: which blockchains 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020974246999228732) 2026-02-09T21:33Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@TotemMacro So the irony is that as a deflationist I am tempted to trade this as a super duration instrument. But I still think 100Y corporate bond is a crazy bad idea" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020979185288872173) 2026-02-09T21:52Z 21.1K followers, 42.9K engagements "I know folks are inclined to think this nominally with inflation but this can happen in real terms with productivity-led deflation. Look at 1870-1900. Wage was nominally flat over that period but persistent deflation of 1-1.5% (40% cumulative) did not stop 4-5% real GDP growth Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of. Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020988565958656206) 2026-02-09T22:29Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "I know many Asian countries are hyperfocused on FX as FX drives inflation but what Miran says below is true for the US. That is because goods is only 20% of the economy and import is a subsector of that. Wage rent and energy (3 biggest service cost items) drive US inflation. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been relatively modest. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2020992064851267741) 2026-02-09T22:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "It is a feature not a bug. It is logical that consumer essentials would have better pricing power given lack of elasticity compared to durables and discretionaries. I am still gonna need clorox wipes if it costs me $8 from $5 (but obv I will switch to private labels on the way). It is pure math with a specific set of weightings but I do not object to your pt that standard of living is degrading when we have less money to spend on discretionaries. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021015871167049775) 2026-02-10T00:18Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@RealJohnGaltFla Imperfect as it is truflation does get the direction correct" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021018091849994689) 2026-02-10T00:27Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "Long Thread: How Hyperinflation in the Late 1940s Allowed the Communists to Take Over China When Japan surrendered in [----] everyone knew the fragile alliance between the Nationalist/Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would collapse. But almost every outside observer expected the outcome to be decisively in the KMTs favor. On paper the advantage was overwhelming. The KMT controlled 2/3 of China with most of major cities and commanded more than [--] million troops with real artillery an air force and a navy backed by US aid accumulated during the war against Japan. The CCP had" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021087980962578686) 2026-02-10T05:04Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Control Group Oct: +0.5% (was +0.6%) Nov: +0.2% (was +0.4%) Dec: -0.1% What is most notable on the internals is that previously resilient nondurables (personal care apparels and sporting goods) and restaurants are inflecting lower. Truflations nondurable trend making sense. Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2% Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021219352108748808) 2026-02-10T13:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs. Consumers are super price sensitive. This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021226158558224743) 2026-02-10T14:14Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements "@StockMomo I would argue that the pinnacle was [----] when Michael Jordan won his 6th and last NBA championship" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021228177096315349) 2026-02-10T14:22Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@trade_set @JayLeonard That is called free money" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021228958449123530) 2026-02-10T14:25Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "@GaryHaubold And folks wonder why China has solid opinions of Mao despite all his (admittedly many) faults. I do find it interesting and very much appreciate that many folks here including you are finding my coverage of Asian history of some interest" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021231117945225248) 2026-02-10T14:33Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements "Whos paying the tariffs again Import prices 0%. est 0.1% year-over-year Import prices 0%. est 0.1% year-over-year" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021232357819232521) 2026-02-10T14:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@VikingHedge But wouldnt that mean import px in dollar terms should be up not flat given the dollar depreciation" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021234557106671942) 2026-02-10T14:47Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "Imagine what would happen to this if Trump Miran and Truflation turn out to be right Note that the admin is hard at work softballing payroll but not the CPI" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021254203910336843) 2026-02-10T16:05Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Not possible without a major flip in this current macro regime. And that regime change needs to start taking place just about now BREAKING: President Trump says Republicans should win in a landslide this November. BREAKING: President Trump says Republicans should win in a landslide this November" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021272615264862344) 2026-02-10T17:18Z 21.2K followers, 10.6K engagements "If taxmen arent paying taxes why should we 🚨 BREAKING: IRS SCANDAL EXPOSED 🚨 Youre not going to believe this. Sen. Joni Ernst has revealed that IRS EMPLOYEES OWE $50000000 IN UNPAID TAXES. Yes. The people who enforce the tax laws arent paying them. Let that sink in. Nearly [----] IRS employees almost 10% of https://t.co/IvBL7Y5JT7 🚨 BREAKING: IRS SCANDAL EXPOSED 🚨 Youre not going to believe this. Sen. Joni Ernst has revealed that IRS EMPLOYEES OWE $50000000 IN UNPAID TAXES. Yes. The people who enforce the tax laws arent paying them. Let that sink in. Nearly [----] IRS employees almost 10% of" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021279120022249649) 2026-02-10T17:44Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Interesting juxtaposition between the two FOMC voters this yr. Lets see how the data shakes out this wk" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021302283485557191) 2026-02-10T19:16Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@market_sleuth [--] months is a long way though. I remember back in early [----] in the midst of Russian-Ukraine war breakout and oil/CPI going out of control the mkt consensus was that Biden was gonna get wiped but by Nov the worst was over and the Dems managed to do better than many feared" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021303571342393797) 2026-02-10T19:21Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "Core PCE comps are easier thru Feb (0.32% in Jan and 0.45% in Feb). Depending on how quickly Feb PPI is released we can bring it down enuf to squeeze a March cut. Agreed comps get tougher post-Feb but my take is if inflation is weak in Jan-Feb (seasonal peak) it is only directionally going even lower afterwards. The big X factor here is when does the OER finally inflect towards zero. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021326577410216285 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021326577410216285" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021326577410216285) 2026-02-10T20:53Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "Kinda scary if you extrapolate what this means for home px in SF/NYC and Seattle metro. Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from that what you will. Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021360659406127433) 2026-02-10T23:08Z 21.2K followers, 16.9K engagements "Scary read. Unlike in [----] Chinese supply is no longer high-cost/inefficient meaning the marginal capacity that needs to be cut now lies in the Western world. The Bear Case on Chemicals. From HSBC. https://t.co/vA1YCwdc8r The Bear Case on Chemicals. From HSBC. https://t.co/vA1YCwdc8r" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021363403751821488) 2026-02-10T23:19Z 21.2K followers, 31.1K engagements "@jeremie0117 Which part Enlighten me" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021366673106931733) 2026-02-10T23:32Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "@DoejiStar Yes AHE is better but still downward trend" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021368386760871978) 2026-02-10T23:39Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "@DoejiStar You should take 2% out of the current GDP growth figure as that part is the result of tariff-driven collapsing imports counted as a positive contribution to the GDP. That will go away once we lap the tariff. Without that gdp growth is in line with the recent trend 2-3%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021372076855034300) 2026-02-10T23:53Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "@jeremie0117 Got ya. Appreciate the nuance" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021384192714829990) 2026-02-11T00:42Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021407660038553925) 2026-02-11T02:15Z 21.2K followers, 13.9K engagements "When you consider that housing and autos are the two largest sources of collateral behind new consumer credit creation hard to see how China can successfully reflate without addressing these two. CHINA'S CAR SALES FALL 19.5% IN JANUARY DECLINING FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH-BRICS China will not get out of this deflationary spiral. Housing market + Car manufacturing are already in this spiral. CHINA'S CAR SALES FALL 19.5% IN JANUARY DECLINING FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH-BRICS China will not get out of this deflationary spiral. Housing market + Car manufacturing are already in this spiral" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021563151393992986) 2026-02-11T12:33Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Also likely (imo) we will have a big FX volatility event to cow the world into mass adopting USD stablecoins. Crash then moon setup. Timing and pathway unknown so do not try to trade it but this is the ultimate endgame I foresee. (Bessent was hired for this ultimate job imo) Translation: We're gonna cut the overnight rate to Valhalla issue all our debt in bills and financially repress anyone who holds them Also: stablecoins are the future of finance Absolutely not a coincidence that they would be a large buyer of t-bills Translation: We're gonna cut the overnight rate to Valhalla issue all" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021564601444503773) 2026-02-11T12:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@ca_amst Pathway unknown But one source of fuel for fire is that US wants to cut rates and Japan needs to hike rates. Another source: deflationary wave hitting the US (if Truflation is indeed right) and the RoW finally having to deal with it" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021567436420796568) 2026-02-11T12:50Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "If payroll continues to bend-but-not-break but the CPI/PCE confirms Truflations trajectory we can get both high real growth and low rates (albeit relatively jobless) Everyone at this pt knows Trump loves to exaggerate but directionally there is a visible pathway. TRUMP CALLS FOR WORLDS LOWEST US INTEREST RATES Donald Trump said the US should have the lowest interest rates globally arguing that every percentage point cut saves $600 billion and could erase the deficit. In a Fox Business interview he said lower rates are a paper TRUMP CALLS FOR WORLDS LOWEST US INTEREST RATES Donald Trump said" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021569224603287811) 2026-02-11T12:57Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Seasonally noisy but solid #. (Hassett/Navarro fooled us all) +ve: - Goods economy clearly rebounding with +33K in construction (data centers) - Mfg flipped +ve with +5K. -ve: - Services is flat without +137K HC so signals continued stress in the discretionary services sector. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021580751024587238) 2026-02-11T13:43Z 21.2K followers, 11.6K engagements "Not taking away the bullish reaction today. But looking ahead. A couple things: - Bond bulls still have a decent shot at the CPI. Payroll was a nice to have. - Jan NFP cutoff date is Jan [--]. UPS+AMZN layoffs (46K combined) came after so that sets the stage for the Feb NFP. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021584777590010320) 2026-02-11T13:59Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@TexasOncologist Not AMZN iirc. But they should still impact payrolls negatively. UR is always a question mark given the participation shift is always a black box" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021585942939574448) 2026-02-11T14:03Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "@riceforthought Jan is always a hot month so expectation is fairly high there (+0.3% MoM). But Truflation Fed Nowcast and GS are all saying things looking lower right now. We shall see" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021586927384690885) 2026-02-11T14:07Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "Deflationist Recessionist The missing pieces are productivity and lag between capex cycle and labor cycle. The signs of goods growth are showing up. Pickup in construction and mfg in todays NFP suggests as much. The next battle is the inflation part. We shall see this Fri" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021630790334067085) 2026-02-11T17:01Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@RenMacLLC Any potential reasons this is happening HC and education sector outperformance may be one I can think of" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021638111756013814) 2026-02-11T17:31Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "DXY and JPY fading the NFP move and some more. 30Y +0.1bp with TLT barely red (-.2%) with curve flattening. Fading the NFP or positioning ahead of the CPI" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021639353202880906) 2026-02-11T17:35Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Tfw you are accused of being a bear by the bulls and being a bull by the bears 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021655092861317592) 2026-02-11T18:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "CBO famously forecasted Obamacare would reduce budget deficits back in [----]. The deficits actually grew. CBO SEES LARGE 'HISTORICALLY UNUSUAL' DEFICITS IN COMING DECADE CBO SEES LARGE 'HISTORICALLY UNUSUAL' DEFICITS IN COMING DECADE" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021684861153505547) 2026-02-11T20:36Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the magnitude of productivity growth and its deflationary impact on px & labor. https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021697015927759283) 2026-02-11T21:25Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "The current dynamic of the goods economy outperforming services starts to make a lot of sense in this light. Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the magnitude of productivity growth and its deflationary impact on px & labor. https://t.co/ADgJ61mo3N Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021701181098082515) 2026-02-11T21:41Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "The golden age of action / martial arts films is coming Seedance [--] just dropped and someone created a full Jet Li vs Jackie Chan scene $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $META $NFLX $WBD $PSKY $DIS https://t.co/x7QEYK68hX Seedance [--] just dropped and someone created a full Jet Li vs Jackie Chan scene $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $META $NFLX $WBD $PSKY $DIS https://t.co/x7QEYK68hX" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021705836809068684) 2026-02-11T22:00Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Coals resurgence as a bridge fuel was inevitable. Coal is how China is absorbing its AI-driven growth in electricity demand and keeping energy cost contained. TRUMP SAYS HE IS DIRECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY TO ISSUE FUNDS TO COAL PLANTS IN STATES INCLUDING WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO TRUMP SAYS HE IS DIRECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY TO ISSUE FUNDS TO COAL PLANTS IN STATES INCLUDING WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021707921797554418) 2026-02-11T22:08Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@WesleyP65443 Usually the credit card balance means balance that is more than [--] days old and accruing interest" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021754880818569378) 2026-02-12T01:15Z 21.2K followers, 44.1K engagements "One of the things that makes trading and investing so fun is that even if I had perfect foresight on macro data and earnings I do not think my trading performance would be much better. In fact I probably would have blown my account multiple times due to overconfidence" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021765188219789403) 2026-02-12T01:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "For those who are doubting the veracity here is the source. 47% have credit card balance so the median is indeed zero" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021770477421596708) 2026-02-12T02:16Z 21.2K followers, 56.9K engagements "@cabtot33 @vern82488114 Fine" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021770557000208597) 2026-02-12T02:17Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements "@Coffee__Capital Right Market cheering 15% tariff because it was no longer 50%" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021775746151432387) 2026-02-12T02:37Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "Somehow she managed to convince Americans that stock market needs to burn in order to save America. Pam Bondi in response to Epstein questions. The Dow is over [-----] thats what we should be talking about https://t.co/pFmX8kfkcb Pam Bondi in response to Epstein questions. The Dow is over [-----] thats what we should be talking about https://t.co/pFmX8kfkcb" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021782980084293875) 2026-02-12T03:06Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Looks like airfares will be deflating again this month. I remember when every Southwest flight was 90-100% full. I remember when every Southwest flight was 90-100% full" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021793256095310033) 2026-02-12T03:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Why everyones credit card rates remain elevated at 22-25% even for those with stellar FICO scores. Juxtapose that with CCC corporates yields having compressed from near 16% at the [--] peak to now 9.7%. (Similar avg default rate at 10-20%/yr) 🚨Americans are defaulting on their debt at a CRISIS pace: The percentage of US credit card debt that is seriously delinquent 90+ days hit 12.7% in Q4 [----] the highest since Q4 [----]. Over the last [--] years the percentage has SKYROCKETED by [--] percentage points. This is now https://t.co/glrVZHByKk 🚨Americans are defaulting on their debt at a CRISIS pace: The" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021928586979000712) 2026-02-12T12:45Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Time to spread USD stablecoins to the Netherlands. The Netherlands government is about to pass a bill introducing a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. Every country in Europe that has tried this has cancelled it after the wealthy flee to cheaper tax jurisdictions. Even if they have not sold yet they will be forced to pay https://t.co/2AAhcIjm0p The Netherlands government is about to pass a bill introducing a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. Every country in Europe that has tried this has cancelled it after the wealthy flee to cheaper tax jurisdictions. Even if they have not sold yet" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021946259091918873) 2026-02-12T13:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "The initial Jan [----] NFP was +143K; now -48K. Not sure why folks take offense at others thinking the NFP is garbage. That is conclusive at this pt. Just keep that thought away from trading and even from bad data you can still id a trend of goods outperforming services ex-HC. For the payroll report the headline number was clearly better than expected. Thats quite good. The January report includes benchmark revisions though and that reduced employment by about 900K. Here's the revision table showing the distribution. https://t.co/rmcjMRvhtv For the payroll report the headline number was clearly" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021953345590898770) 2026-02-12T14:23Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "I stand corrected on my previous post blaming weather for the weak home sales number. The West (which largely escaped the winter storm) took the brunt of the softness. @yieldsearcher Existing homes sales were the worst in the West though where temperatures were significantly above average. https://t.co/osjd0v04vH https://t.co/3s2QBy8R5X https://t.co/Symfic65t5 @yieldsearcher Existing homes sales were the worst in the West though where temperatures were significantly above average. https://t.co/osjd0v04vH https://t.co/3s2QBy8R5X https://t.co/Symfic65t5" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021969171400343743) 2026-02-12T15:26Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Correlation of [--] classic recessionary reaction (equity metals crude down / DXY and rates rallying) That was not the message the NFP yesterday was telling me. TLT higher than pre-NFP level" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021994324305883434) 2026-02-12T17:06Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "Saw David Einhorn on CNBC yesterday saying he had a big silver long position" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2021999801076982195) 2026-02-12T17:28Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "On a day that posted the weakest home sales number XHB is one of the rare greens on the screen. The pod kids are buying home builders now The pod kids are buying home builders now" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022006133825974475) 2026-02-12T17:53Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Cessnadriver50 @FibonacciInves1 Productivity gains. Either corporations get massive margin benefits which are taxable or they produce and deliver goods and services at ridiculously low cost that makes things affordable" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022013915287400774) 2026-02-12T18:24Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements "I agree with the last sentence. But productivity gain-led deflation is a good kind of deflation if the govt can manage the social disruption element. 1870-1900 is the prime example with railroad oil and electricity creating ton of disruption and many losers (horse carriages and farmers esp) but overall the economy did amazing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022015713385361700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022015713385361700" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022015713385361700) 2026-02-12T18:31Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements "@Cessnadriver50 @FibonacciInves1 Depends on how much human labor demand is permanently replaced. Those whose labor is not wanted will still need some income. Btw this is pretty far out stuff. Plenty of time to see where this goes and adjust accordingly. But agreed that nothing can stop the deflation train" [X Link](https://x.com/yieldsearcher/status/2022017603565498396) 2026-02-12T18:38Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@yieldsearcher Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX posts on X about in the, market, inflation, japan the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +261%
- [--] Month [---------] +307%
- [--] Months [----------] +92%
- [--] Year [----------] +1,131%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] -11%
- [--] Month [---] +53%
- [--] Months [-----] +90%
- [--] Year [-----] +232%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [------] +1.20%
- [--] Month [------] +8.60%
- [--] Months [------] +94%
- [--] Year [------] +602%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #3433 countries 13.95% stocks 7.91% technology brands 6.28% cryptocurrencies #6829 currencies 3.72% celebrities 2.09% social networks 0.93% automotive brands 0.93% financial services 0.7%
Social topic influence in the 10.7%, market #556, inflation #88, japan 6.28%, this is 6.05%, liquidity #433, ai 5.12%, china 4.42%, deflation #16, crypto 3.95%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @garyhaubold @noruserious @yieldsearcher @jz281c @fixedincquant @cessnadriver50 @stockmomo @texasoncologist @grok @tradfidiguy @econstratpb @derivativesdon @jeremie0117 @doejistar @winnerinvestor @eggwalkingdog @juticewhizzer @american_42069 @fallacyalarm @winninglibtards
Top assets mentioned Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Bitcoin (BTC) CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"You know the rate bulls are having a good day when even Goolsbee is conceding on the possibility of future rate cuts. Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation. Fed's Goolsbee: Rates can still go down but need to see progress on inflation"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:33Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Leaving aside that this is one empirical data point (which is fine) the inflation referenced here is really PPI. If he could raise px to customers by 10%+ hed be fine. But Truflation and CPI PPI suggest otherwise. Hence a biz margin issue while CPI stays contained. Here is truflation's estimate of inflation. I spoke with a restaurant owner yesterday who said if you look at all inputs (taxes labor insurance supplies and food) that inflation is easily 10% yoy. I think everything is a lie and we are living in a simulation created to support https://t.co/tTHBbGs1mA Here is truflation's estimate"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@deerpointmacro KRE has done well. Big banks not so much"
X Link 2026-02-15T16:44Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Makes a lot of fundamental sense. I think there isa populist narrative at play here that reappears almost every midterm year. Trumps reflationary policies help contain loan losses (which explains KRE outperformance) while his populist rhetoric makes big banks the juiciest targets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023080108677075443 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023080108677075443"
X Link 2026-02-15T17:00Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are"
X Link 2025-04-07T17:24Z 21.2K followers, 311.9K engagements
"Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over [--] yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is. A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU A Bitcoin whale just sold all the [-----] $BTC for $9.6B per Kkashi_yt Which was bought at [----] for $54000 https://t.co/0OmDQorsmU"
X Link 2025-07-18T18:07Z 21.2K followers, 356.8K engagements
"For those not familiar to credit here is some reference: Implied default prob (over 5Y) for CDS: - 50bp: 4% - 100: 8% (ORCL) - 200: 16% - 300: 23% - 400: 29% - 500: 35% - 600: 40% (CRWV) - 700: 45% Compare this to: BBB cash spread: 110bp BB: [---] B: [---] CCC: [---] How to calculate default probability when looking at CDS spreads. $CRWV $ORCL https://t.co/OR7qLWZsPj How to calculate default probability when looking at CDS spreads. $CRWV $ORCL https://t.co/OR7qLWZsPj"
X Link 2025-11-13T21:23Z 21.2K followers, 232.2K engagements
"Zero afternoon $106b RRP vs $75b SRF. Interesting to see both jump together like this. Aggregate liquidity fine but maybe some uneven distribution That is a big jump in RRP (9/30 was at $49b; 11/28 at $2b). SRF afternoon session worth a watch. Due in [--] min. That is a big jump in RRP (9/30 was at $49b; 11/28 at $2b). SRF afternoon session worth a watch. Due in [--] min"
X Link 2025-12-31T18:56Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Ironically despite the carnage in software which is private credits largest sector exposure (15-25%) today was a good day for BDCs generally up 1% today. Seems like no algos have figured out this link yet. SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR SOFTWARE deserves a call out today. ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in [--] yrs - Software v Semis (relative): -700bp - SaaS (absolute): -450bp - SMB Software: -400bp"
X Link 2026-01-02T21:17Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This is the current dilemma in the market. Trump wants low rates and a weak dollar. However the global bond and FX markets are only willing to give him one of them while the equity market is pricing in as if he will get both through a cyclicals rally. One of them is wrong"
X Link 2026-01-23T21:53Z 21K followers, 12.2K engagements
"NYC (NYISO Zone J) wholesale power px went above $1000/MWh between 7am and 9am. Currently at $300. Hope you turned off your radiators on time this morning"
X Link 2026-01-24T17:16Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Lets hope the nations grid makes it through the next [--] hours intact. Otherwise the public backlash against data centers could become very energized"
X Link 2026-01-25T01:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The only thing that honestly surprises me about $5000 gold and $100 silver is that nothing broke along the way not even one high-profile hedge fund casualty. $20t of market value creation over the past [--] months and no one got carried out on the shorts. Remarkable"
X Link 2026-01-25T23:42Z 21.2K followers, 247.5K engagements
"Worth noting: - Goods/imports are only 20% of CPI in an 80% services economy - Post-Plaza $30 oil capped inflation - Must consider shift in demand (less discretionary spend offsets price hikes) - Weak DXY = deflation in the RoW (esp EU) partially offsetting inflation pressure. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles matter more. 1985-87 (Plaza Accd) DXY fell [-----] yet cPCE dropped from [---] to [---]. From 02-08 DXY fell 12070; inflation stayed 2%. Inverse example: [------] DXY rose [-----] as PCE surged 1.7%5.6%. Economists get it wrong: weak DXY inflation. Biz/rate cycles"
X Link 2026-01-28T13:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break"
X Link 2026-01-29T14:33Z 21K followers, 15.7K engagements
"So if gold and silver are turning out to be levered equity betas and TLT is down on a day like this what is the flight to safety asset"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:31Z 21.2K followers, 36.9K engagements
"Worth keeping an eye on. #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx #Tether watch Depeg Coinbase wicks to $0.996 twice bounces back to $0.998 - which is the official maximum range of regular flucuations. Currently struggling to hold it. Kraken's close at $0.9982 Bitfinex is at $0.9989 CMC at $0.9981. https://t.co/zrXT4uxvIx"
X Link 2026-01-29T20:02Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"A rule of thumb: companies typically do not cut staff when there is strong confidence in topline growth. Hence Mastercard laying off employees against a narrative of resilient consumer spending raises a question mark. Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge Mastercard to Lay off 4% of Its Global Workforce CFO Says #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-01-29T20:55Z 21.1K followers, 41.3K engagements
"Would be pretty funny if AAPL missing on U.S. sales but finally beating on China sales ends up being the signal of a cyclical inflection of the two economies"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Mortgage rates going to sub-3% (maybe even sub-2%) is the only way this housing market works itself out without causing a px decline. So we are going to compress the mortgage/long rates extra hard before the midterm. That is practically the message here. Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're not gonna destroy the value of their homes so that somebody who didn't work very hard can buy a home." https://t.co/V3cviRAO3F Trump: "People that own their homes: we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're"
X Link 2026-01-29T23:01Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty remarkable as we are facing: - Parabolic move in gold and silver - Dollar acting volatile - Trump Fed selection tomorrow - Potential govt shutdown this wknd (coin flip according to Polymarket) - Attack on Iran probably this wknd VIX is at 16-handle and MOVE at 60"
X Link 2026-01-30T05:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"PCE est should go down directionally given airfares and healthcare are lower than the corresponding CPI figures for Dec. Dec CPI/PPI show heavier inflation in services than in goods. Typical seasonality (holiday sales on goods but on-peak travels). This reverts in Jan. PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk PPI components that map over to PCE suggest a bit of a hotter print for December https://t.co/3T5XHvv1Vk"
X Link 2026-01-30T13:52Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"For those who reflexively think hot PPIhot CPI From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 What happened Core PPI: 1.7% 4.5% thru Lehman Core CPI: 2.7% 2.4% before collapsing. Consumers can balk; demand elasticity / margin compression are things. Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange) from Jan [--] to Jan [--]. From Jan [--] to Jun [--] Oil: $60$140 Copper: $260$390 But core PCE: 2.5% 2.2% Then SHTF. When rising global commodity prices meet weakening US economic fundamentals things do not inflate; they break. https://t.co/hVX12o9O0U Oil (white) Copper (blue) and Core PCE (orange)"
X Link 2026-01-30T14:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:51Z 21K followers, 21.2K engagements
"Today is a perfect storm where CME speculators are getting carried out and more: - GC on 5% margin vs -11% move - SI on 10% vs -28% Forced liquidations everywhere. But the risk here is flushing out paper traders invite physical buyers accelerating delivery drawdowns. Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is month-end physical delivery election deadline Silver -19% 😏 Lets see what China physical traders say about this when they come back next wk. https://t.co/rRXPxZwrzx Shanghai mkt is currently closed + London mkt had a technical freeze + today is"
X Link 2026-01-30T18:13Z 21K followers, 11.8K engagements
"Jan Total Return: Equities: smallcap/cyclicals megacap/tech SPY: +1.5% QQQ: +1.2% IWM: +5.5% Fixed Income: creditrates TLT: -0.03% IEF: -0.2% LQD: +0.3% HYG: +0.6% PM: no comment GLD: +12% SLV: +17% Crypto: 4th straight red mth IBIT: -4.4% ETHA: -10% XRP: -6.2% SOL: -6.0%"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:46Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The fuel was there for sure (erratic and big swings showing lack of liquidity the past few days). I am not shocked to see the drawdown. But what are the odds that LME and HSBC (HK bullion dealer) have major outage on the crucial last day of the physical delivery deadline and circuitbreaker mysteriously does not trigger https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017380707828404649"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:33Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Took Richard Nixon to make a deal with China. Took Bismarck to institute social security in Germany. Took Begin and Sadat for Israel and Egypt to make peace. Hardliner credential can be an asset in convincing the market of the merits of a dovish path. @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of randoms on my feed gushing over him. Is it because he is Volcker-lite will help usher in stablecoins or will he do what Trump tells him to do These seem mutually incompatible. But the real effect in floating him seems to be tightening financial @yieldsearcher @NickWoolos I am seeing a LOT of"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Seeing PM crash yesterday and now crypto making its unusual wknd crash with BTC now 80K I am def asking this question. Did something break"
X Link 2026-01-31T18:35Z 21K followers, 26K engagements
"X has been near unusable for almost the entire day for me. Apologies for not being as responsive"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:05Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Starting to lose track of the layoff tracker the past two wks. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. $ORCL is considering slashing up to [-----] jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out"
X Link 2026-01-31T23:49Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Note clothing one of the heaviest inflated items due to tariffs deflating in Jan after holiday season is over. You typically do not see this unless retailers have excess seasonal inventories to get rid of before their fiscal yr end (Jan month end) US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from 1.24% to 0.86% in our independent price data the lowest since [----]. Truflation US CPI today: 0.86% Y/Y The biggest downward drivers were: [--]. Utilities down -0.13% [--]. Clothing -0.08% [--]. Housing -0.05% [--]. Transport -0.05% [--]. Food https://t.co/HFef56JGyl US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from"
X Link 2026-02-01T14:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Las Vegas December stats Worst hotel occupancy since Jan [--]. Note the ADR and RevPar deflating significantly. For reference CPI Dec Lodging: -0.8% YoY"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:32Z 21K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Total Revenue per Available Seat Miles (TRASM) is a great proxy for the airline fare trend. Q4 Results - UAL: -1.6% YoY - DAL: -0.2% - AAL: -1.6% - LUV: -0.2% - JBLU: +0.2% Avg: -0.7% vs. Dec PPI airfare going into the PCE: +1.7% 🤷 But airfares are deflating that is clear"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:02Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@MillennialRisk Discretionary services and housing ARE deflating though. You disagree Goods are high yes but that is 20% of the total weighting"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:05Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The degree of attacks against this tells me how much FinTwit is going to be caught offside soon. It is the slope of the descent and the composition of the move not the figure that matter. Not to mention seasonally Jan is the seasonal peak. Go check Feds Nowcast (0.1%/2.4%) We're seeing significant cooling across all our independent US inflation indexes: US CPI today: 0.86% (drop from 1.24% yesterday) US PCE today: 1.18% US Core PCE today: 1.38% US BLS Comparison CPI: 0.29% (obtained by applying the BLS CPI weighting and categories to our price https://t.co/ByjcfPOH4F We're seeing significant"
X Link 2026-02-01T17:46Z 21.1K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Inevitable but first China must liberalize the currency and capital controls allow FX appreciation and be willing to run current-account deficits for the RoW. Most importantly for CCP it must brace for a booming wealthy middle class less reliant/obedient to the state. JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK JUST IN: Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/Nt2ZiOhbWK"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:43Z 21.2K followers, 21.3K engagements
"I am sitting as clueless as the guy next door but all I can say is when things feel lost the 2Y and DXY are the two one-eyed men in the land of the blind"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:08Z 21K followers, 10.8K engagements
"Only so much crypto you can sell to cover your margin losses on PMs. Less than 5% of the overall equity market. Not a big buffer before it spills over to the equities. Hunt Brothers liquidation almost drove MS and ML to BK before the Fed stepped in. The gold and silver liquidation on Friday is a much bigger $ loss. Not saying this is a SHTF moment but I am saying vigilance. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018207347592589313"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:18Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The new margin requirement for GC and SI are 8% and 15% respectively. The spots are -9% and -14% right now. Hunt Bro liquidation almost drove ML and MS to BK. This is bigger in $ losses. Crypto (5% of equity mkt) too small to be a buffer. This can get ugly. Lets see"
X Link 2026-02-02T06:36Z 21.1K followers, 16.6K engagements
"8%/15% margins not good enough for this vol. Would not shock me if CME raises the margin requirement again this wk. BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk BREAKING: Gold and silver post massive reversals and erase the majority of their losses on the day. Gold is back above $4700/oz and silver is back above $87/oz. Truly incredible price action. https://t.co/FZJEkjbtpk"
X Link 2026-02-02T12:29Z 21K followers, 24.6K engagements
"I remember FinTwit disparaging Truflation when it started picking up in [----]. And again when it inflected from the peak in [--]. The numbers may be off but Truflation has caught major inflection pts in the past five yrs. A move this significant is worth a heed. Mainstream doesn't know anything about Truflation. However it's certainly been an excellent prediction on the coming trend in PCE and more importantly CPI because THAT's what mainstream does know. Falling below 2% would be something but crashing towards 0% would be even more https://t.co/cEnnSkMO8Y Mainstream doesn't know anything about"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:57Z 21.1K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Who knew issuing more equities is positive for equities ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower. ORCL CDS down because company is selling some stock to delever ORCL stock is up because ORCL CDS is lower"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:48Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"S&P PMI commentary adds additional context to the ISM mfg figure. Basically firms are producing more goods than they can currently sell (restocking) and are accumulating inventories at the fastest pace since early [----]. A high-stakes gambit on [----] demand inflection"
X Link 2026-02-02T22:26Z 21K followers, 19.6K engagements
"Now we have GS confirming current disinflationary trends already observed by Truflation and Fed Nowcast. GS Core Inflation Tracker 2.0% https://t.co/AMTO0ot9P6 GS Core Inflation Tracker 2.0% https://t.co/AMTO0ot9P6"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:12Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@NickTimiraos Nondurable goods inflation is real but we have been seeing persistent dis/deflation in services and durables. And services is the far bigger component of the inflation"
X Link 2026-02-03T11:44Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Most hawkish thing I heard from Miran 😂 Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Fed's Miran: Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:04Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Think of what PE firms love to buy: Asset/capex-light Process/labor intensive bottlenecks that allow for high recurring rents High operating leverage (higher revenue = higher margins) How does this survive post-AI Tangible assets = moat rings true in more ways than one. Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash With Zombie Firms Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile their investors are losing https://t.co/DFh57p6FQs Why Private Equity Is Suddenly Awash"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:17Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Homebuilders are willing to expand supplies risking lower margins (but to be offset with higher volume). Q is: what will Trump give them in return (Also Trump prob knows housing px decline is unavoidable. I maintain he is managing the pace of deflation not run it hot.) *MAJOR BUILDERS SAID TO WEIGH PLAN FOR [--] MILLION 'TRUMP HOMES' *MAJOR BUILDERS SAID TO WEIGH PLAN FOR [--] MILLION 'TRUMP HOMES'"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:31Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Bullish Banana Republic Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge Two Republicans side with Democrats stalling funding bill to reopen government #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:32Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"IWM green. Entirely conceivable that this is the yr fundamental value analysts finally outperform this year yet earn no bonuses because their tech-focused colleagues drag down the fund"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:54Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"CMG -9% guiding to flat comp (vs +2% cons) in [----]. There goes the consumers discretionary services spending"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:11Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"There may be some seasonal noise here (given the weather) but Jan Auto sales SAAR at 14.85m lowest since Mar [--]. Looks like auto inflation will be weak this month"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:43Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Pretty interesting that XHB +13% ytd as IEF (7-10yr Treasuries) -0.4%. One of them is wrong"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:33Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO JUST IN: Jim Cramer says Bitcoin will not fall below $73000. https://t.co/mgVaOfuZeO"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:46Z 21K followers, 204.1K engagements
"Tfw your sushi pickup came without wasabi It is that kind of a day"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"The bar is not low but Google can save the mkt"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:26Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"USDT depeg widening almost near 5y low (.9980). Not liking this at all"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:57Z 21.2K followers, 86.1K engagements
"@GaryHaubold Good q. I do not know but we are playing with fire. This is as TBTF in the crypto space as it gets. But if the US really wants to impose its will and institutionalize the space it must break or silo away Tether"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:32Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"No recession just means exactly that: no negative GDP growth. Does not mean no pain/chaos in the economy. Think of the lvl of disruption if these $1t+ investment takes even just 10% ($100b+/yr) away from the rest of the economy (like SaaS). Twitter and nuance = oil and water. Hyperscaler Capex for 2026: META: $125b ($70b) GOOG: $180b ($91b) AMZN: $175b ($125b) MSFT: $145b ($83b) ORCL: $55b ($35b) Total: $680b ($404b) Almost $300b or 1% of GDP growth in capex from just these five companies Hard to have a recession with that capex binge. Hyperscaler Capex for 2026: META: $125b ($70b) GOOG:"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:13Z 21.2K followers, 11.1K engagements
"This is a good chart. Shows you all five hyperscalers will be investing (some significantly) above their internal cash generation. Having a cheap cost of debt is a paramount national interest in more ways than one. @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd @yieldsearcher Why $goog is King https://t.co/UpGVy6zJXd"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:32Z 21.2K followers, 16.9K engagements
"He raises a good point. PC is a major overweight for most asset allocators with significant current liabilities (pensions insurers everyone except endowments). Excess return over UST with zero vol = amazing Sharpe ratio until default risk shows up But they own no PM. 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked 1/3 of family office assets globally are in private credit meanwhile they have almost no gold allocations 🤣 These retards are going to get wrecked"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"This shitpost alone has more interactions than my every other posts today combined. X is a wild place 😂 BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues. BTC now $72.5K. The legend continues"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:09Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Whats up with silver"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:58Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"He forgot to add: But a second job. JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job" JUST IN: Binance founder CZ says crypto will make you "not need a job""
X Link 2026-02-05T03:49Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"HY spreads (white) vs. VIX (blue) While the mkt is expressing displeasure in software credit via loan ETFs/BDCs/PE firms public credit remains relatively calm. Absent an acute credit stress (imminent defaults) little reason for the Fed to act; also why rates remain steady"
X Link 2026-02-05T04:13Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"VIX curve finally backwardated. Have not seen that in a long while"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:29Z 21.2K followers, 21.1K engagements
"So here is the interesting part of the Challenger report. Logistics (31K) and tech (22K) were obvious; those are UPS and AMZN. But right behind them was healthcare (17K) the most since Apr [----] (19K). This is a new data pt. If HC is rolling over there goes the labor mkt"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:49Z 21K followers, 13.4K engagements
"Tom Lee making a super strong case to be added to the ranks of fellow Korean legends like Bill Hwang Masa Son and Do Kwon. Tom Lees Ethereum loss approaches $10 billion #MacroEdge Tom Lees Ethereum loss approaches $10 billion #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:25Z 21.2K followers, 142.6K engagements
"Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp)"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:51Z 21.2K followers, 11.9K engagements
"Core PCE MoM Jan 2025: +0.31% Feb 2025: +0.45% Cleveland Feds Core PCE Nowcast: Jan 2026: +0.23% Feb 2026: +0.23% By their estimate they see core PCE going to 2.5% from 2.8% by end of Feb. If the Feds own est is right March cut is very much live"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:21Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I was half-joking when I said cryptos golden age was possible only after liquidating Saylor and/or Tether"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:24Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Why Bessent was hired. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The https://t.co/l0eAjPT5Ky U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Iran: We created a dollar shortage in the country. It came to a swift conclusion. I would say the culmination came in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under after a bank run. The central bank had to print money. The"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:48Z 21K followers, 19.8K engagements
"We just had a back-to-back-to-back triple punch on labor mkt today (Challenger IJC JOLTS) leading to the classic recessionary reaction of rates rally + equity selloff. Now imagine had we not had a [--] day shutdown wed all be on Xanax anxiously waiting for NFP tomorrow. In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺 JOLTS December job openings 🔻 https://t.co/ujtF1exgrr In the last [--] hours the US has posted (4) negative jobs reports: ADP Private Payrolls🔻 Challenger Job Cuts🔺 Initial Claims to 231K 🔺"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:55Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Nobody is an atheist in THIS mkt. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years. JUST IN: Those betting on the return of Jesus on Polymarket this year have outperformed Bitcoin investors over the past [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:10Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Installment payment stream on another installment payment stream. What stage JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC. JUST IN: Klarna-like buy now pay later may soon be available for Americans renting homes/apartments per CNBC"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:52Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Feds Jefferson seeing labor mkt as a greater risk than inflation. Note the last feed where he sees very little cushion left on the labor mkt"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:58Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Isnt that the entire thesis NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE NVIDIA CEO SAYS THING WORRIED ABOUT MOST IS AI BEING EFFECTIVE"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:07Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@Cessnadriver50 TLT $200 😂"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:30Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"ZIRP without a recession within two yrs is not a crazy thesis imo. Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me Regardless of whether AI disrupts other segments of the economy the catalyst of the most in demand and well paid sector (software engineering) turning into the most disrupted sounds pretty damn deflationary to me"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:36Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"NFP next Wed and CPI Friday. If Trump wants to help the housing/economy for Main St and boost his electoral chances he needs to set the stage for turbo-charged rate cuts soon esp with cCPI about to lap tough Jan print (+0.45%) and the labor market still vulnerable"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:53Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The worst part about this sentence is that this is the avg not the median. The average U.S. worker has $955 saved for retirement per CBS. The average U.S. worker has $955 saved for retirement per CBS"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:08Z 21.2K followers, 168.1K engagements
"Unpopular opinion: todays move was frontrunning Japanese election this Sunday (+ some profit-taking short covering)"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:18Z 21K followers, 17.9K engagements
"@fallacyalarm Well Feb is the seasonally weak part of the yr. But seasonality went [---] degrees last yr so I am just living day by day"
X Link 2026-02-07T01:22Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Strong and persistent deflation post-tariffs starting to kick in this yr. We lap tariff middle of this yr. Convexity hedging demand for duration pops once long rate goes down sufficiently as MBS duration collapses 10Y poised to benefit most as we run out of off the run supplies beginning this yr (no 30Y issued 15-20yrs ago). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020136153597255924"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:02Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Goods are flowing again. ISM and S&P Jan reports highlighted that industrials are restocking at the fastest pace since [----] despite lack of recovery in spot demand to date. But the fact that this is continuing into early Feb is indeed a promising sign. Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close out the week and are now at the highest levels they've been since October [----]. This is a remarkable freight market with no signs of slowing. It continues to reinforce the narrative that market tightness is not just a weather https://t.co/GFD56CCtix Trucking volumes continued to surge as we close"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:24Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@WinningLibtards Non recessionary dis/deflation"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:43Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Great q. [--]. The manufacturing is showing a recovery but this is 10% of the economy. Service sector still showing slowdown per the latest reports. [--]. ADP shows mfg shedding jobs but jobs is a lagging indicator. Back in [----] UR kept going up till Dec when S&P bottomed in Mar. @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy @yieldsearcher Mr V IYO if ISM shows expansion why are job numbers looking gloomy"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:27Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@noruserious The uncertainty def weighs on the general sentiment but if ones view is that scotus is going to strike down tariffs you would wait on restocking. I think people are saying enuf we waited long enuf our inventory is too low time to restock and see how the yr progresses"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:40Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@noruserious TBD but there are some signs that this can be real. Mkt obv thinking that too with cyclicals outperformance this yr"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:45Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@LarryVasqu99365 Open to that possibility. We will know for sure by end of the month"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:33Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting precedent A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc A similar pattern emerged in [----]. After Tech peaked in March of that year Consumer Staples Utilities and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45% even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4% respectively. 👇🏼 https://t.co/Se8vtugqhc"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:38Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"A real name disclosure for once Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ Girlboss Democrat lawyer that Barack Obama wanted to make Attorney General of the United States. Current General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/udrWH7UiTZ"
X Link 2026-02-07T18:59Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Quick math: Powell said without tariffs cPCE will be 2%. Implies 0.7% tariff impact will be lapped away by mid-yr. OER is at +3.4% in Dec. That is 15% of cPCE (-0.5%) and 35% of cCPI (-1.2%). Once we lap tariffs mid-yr and OER goes to [--] cPCE goes to 1.6% and cCPI 0.7%. Back under 0.9% - rents plunging but CPI wont show it for months: Back under 0.9% - rents plunging but CPI wont show it for months:"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:21Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Last yr HYG returned +8.6%. CCC returned 6%. Distressed credit returned -9%. From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers From sponsor on creditor violence to cooperation agreements to now anti-rebellion clausesthe only people making big money in public institutional distressed credit now are lawyers"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:13Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"Not sure I buy Cramer here but Trump got into office with overwhelming support from crypto bros. Crypto is integral to keeping future UST bids alive. Pathway will never be linear (super volatile in fact) but how bonds and crypto fare by Nov will decide the midterm for DJT. Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard at $60k he's gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve." https://t.co/1VAAp2jK4d Jim Cramer says he was told President Trump is buying Bitcoin for the US strategic reserve during the crash this week. "I heard"
X Link 2026-02-07T23:19Z 21K followers, 10.5K engagements
"@CapitalCrashout No crying in the casino"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:05Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@nasdaq19500 The actual final result is secondary to the question of how much efforts will he put into pump things up"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:06Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Hunter Biden redemption arc in [----] was not on my bingo card. Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should Hunter Biden not being in the Epstein files is hilarious. Guy just enjoys a bit of crack and age consenting Latinas like every American hero should"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:28Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender. According to legal documents and emails Epstein and Lutnick did business together and Lutnick vacationed on Epsteins island LONG AFTER Lutnick claims they parted ways and after LONG AFTER Epstein was a known sex offender"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:00Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@DerivativesDon Well put. It really is about the growth"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@DerivativesDon The risk of course is that the Feds bias is to react once everything becomes blatantly obvious (ie late)"
X Link 2026-02-08T02:15Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@PauloMacro And 90% would cheer for it"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:09Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Long Thread: Vietnam War: East vs. Western Warfare The Vietnam War stands as a prototypical West-meets-East moment where the Wests inherent understanding of warfare was completely upended by a more nebulous Eastern style of engagement. American strategy exemplified by General Westmorelands fixation on kill ratios and decisive engagements treated war as an engineering problem in which force application and quantifiable success on the battlefield would inevitably beget victory. North Vietnam by contrast fought an entirely different war one in which strategy eclipsed tactics and political"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:06Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"While everyones attention is on Iran there seems to be a real proxy battle currently being fought in Iraq which is in the process of forming a new government. Not much news covering this but the situation seems grave enuf that Trump had to cover this topic publicly. Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister Iraqs Shiite State of Law Coalition announced that Nouri al-Maliki will remain its sole candidate for the post of prime minister"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:55Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The North Vietnamese general Vo Nguyen Giap who oversaw Tet had this to say: The Tet Offensive was not a purely military action. Its main purpose was to influence American public opinion and force the U.S. government to change its policy. The Americans lost in Vietnam because they did not understand that they were fighting a political war. American public never recovered from seeing the embassy in the heart of the capital attacked in broad daylight"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:14Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@GaryHaubold Yes I remember his days. Def very sympathetic to Iran. The fact that there are forces willing to push for him despite Trumps objection says this is a big important fight for Iran"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:27Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"That is a legitimate critique: tariff pass-through is taking longer than expected and there is a risk that we may not fully lap these effects by midyear. The flip side however is that if firms have been unable to pass through much of the tariff impact after this long it raises the question of when/whether they will be able to do so. This suggests strong consumer resistance and high px elasticity which in itself argues that inflation in nondurables should be naturally contained. It is also notable that Truflation shows apparel and household items the two nondurable categories that experienced"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:42Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"@tdarling1 We did get December CPI last month. This one will be Jan. The PPI is still getting delayed a bit though"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:45Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"When you have 2/3 of the Diet the opposition here clearly means the FX and the bond markets not the politicians on the other side of the aisle. TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION TAKAICHI SAYS WILLING TO LISTEN TO GOOD SUGGESTIONS FROM OPPOSITION"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:47Z 21K followers, [----] engagements
"@JellyCrypto 155-160 ideally but if not she def prefers to see that higher"
X Link 2026-02-08T13:56Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@KQ992017 There are still US military forces in Iraq though"
X Link 2026-02-08T14:07Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Pretty remarkable. For a country known for consensus and harmony-seeking culture Japan is handing this government a level of political power concentration not seen since WWII maybe even since Meiji. The financial and geopolitical implications of this will not be trivial. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments. The coalition now has the authority to override any vetoes from the House of Councillors on legislation and initiate constitutional amendments"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:32Z 21.1K followers, 15.7K engagements
"@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef Makes sense. Obv the difference was Pearl Harbor was an undispited US territory that would rile up the US public while the farthest Tet got was the US embassy in Saigon"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:58Z 21K followers, [--] engagements
"Katayama: It may be possible to tap FX reserves to fund state spending though this could create issues if reserves are also needed for intervention. This is very new and just as equally remarkable (at least to me). Japan is thinking of selling US assets to fund the stimulus. Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is in good dialogue with the BOJ BlackRock and IMF executives who understand Japans position. Finance Minister Katayama: Government will seek dialogue with markets on Monday as needed. Finance Minister Katayama: It may be possible Japan Finance Minister Katayama: Government is"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:04Z 21.1K followers, 17.6K engagements
"@JZ281C @LordPos3idon @ZanJacquRef I always find it ironic the two countries who were most enthusiastic about removing Chinese culture/characters out of their languages were none other than North Koreans and North Vietnamese"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:06Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@EdwardsRahmn @B2Balzer @TradFidiGuy The perfect goldilock setup"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:24Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@InvestInJapan I see no fault in this logic"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:13Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@EconstratPB Best place in America imo. So surprising there is no major financial firm presence there"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:24Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs It is indeed the experience of many Americans but inflation means rate of increase which is clearly inflecting down. But that said I totally get it that after having accrued 30% inflation lost covid any inflation above zero is painful"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:34Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@FixedIncQuant @EconstratPB San Diego All I see are Qualcomm engineers"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:37Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Where are you getting 4.7%"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:51Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs So you are effectively saying real consumption growth is zero"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:03Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs Not sure I agree with that but I get where you are going with this"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:08Z 21K followers, [---] engagements
"Takaichis political slogan Translates to Make Japan strong & prosperous Which takes its inspiration (albeit with less militaristic overtone) from the 19th c. Meiji modernization era slogan (Rich state strong army). The nationalism is back"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:05Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@MoarFunCoupons That was last Jan [----] core CPI MoM figure which we will lap in a wk"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:06Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@ArsenalStu They want that inflation"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Trump is clearly super happy about the Japanese election results"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:16Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All this run it hot rhetoric is really a brake on a large deflationary wave. Takaichi has her work cut out for her"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:23Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like someone is ready to revalue its currency upward. BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings." BREAKING: China has instructed banks to begin selling and limit purchases of US government bonds amid concerns that "US debt may expose banks to sharp swings.""
X Link 2026-02-09T12:39Z 21.1K followers, 15.2K engagements
"Sentiment in Japan right now. Takaichi has 90% approval rating amongst those under [--]. We're going to revise the Japanese constitution and we're going to have an actual army. There will be no more communism in East Asia. https://t.co/XJJoTRWobn We're going to revise the Japanese constitution and we're going to have an actual army. There will be no more communism in East Asia. https://t.co/XJJoTRWobn"
X Link 2026-02-09T12:51Z 21.2K followers, 43.5K engagements
"@TexasOncologist Japanese bond yields still affecting global term premia. So you got Japan and Hassett counteracting but different part of the curve showing different sensitivity. But these days anything within 5bp dtd move is par for the course"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:20Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Japan election out of the way Now the setup is such that we have Hassett lowering expectations for the payroll on Wed and Truflation suggesting a fair bit of risk of CPI coming cold on Fri. I do expect bond mkt to wake up from its slumber this wk. Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that has been) the Feb [--] Japan election is probably the only catalyst left to play for further curve steepening at this stage. Interesting to see 2s10s barely budging with 7bp moves on both legs (5s30s +2bp) Now that we had a week to digest the new Fed chair (and what a week that"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:29Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Every DM term premia has been following Japans direction since late last yr. Every DM bond competing against Japan. Bessent practically told Japan to stop it when it got out of control a month ago when JGB 30Y was moving 20bp a day. But mkt more or less priced in Japan fiscal policy so q is what more left there near term. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020887014699078100"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:46Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"One of the rare days this yr where QQQ IWM led by softwares (IGV +3%)"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:25Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@JayLeonard 100% agreed. If mkt is willing to give me 100y paper I will issue that right there and then"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:27Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"All you folks trying to come up with exceptions to this are proving my pt here. Yes GE still exists and is paying their debts but it was a AAA-rated company for the longest time but now barely above BBB. Also they almost went BK in 2008; got bailed out. 100y is a long time. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later. Worth mentioning that none of the companies in the Dow [--] in [----] are still on the list [---] years later"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:57Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@schwarzmaler20 Western Union trading like it is at risk of going extinct with crypto. GM creditors got equitized in 2008"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:24Z 21.2K followers, 22.6K engagements
"This is starting to make more sense isnt it (Source: Truflation) Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge Nikes Converse is preparing layoffs and restructuring as shoe sales slump 30% with staff told to work from home #MacroEdge"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:28Z 21.2K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Does not preclude a big flush/reset before moon but crypto is without a doubt a strategic national interest. Only Q is: which blockchains 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH 🚨MASSIVE: President Trump says: We are preparing to do something big with crypto. Markets dont ignore statements like this. Pay attention. 👀 https://t.co/Syrev9fGeH"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:33Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@TotemMacro So the irony is that as a deflationist I am tempted to trade this as a super duration instrument. But I still think 100Y corporate bond is a crazy bad idea"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:52Z 21.1K followers, 42.9K engagements
"I know folks are inclined to think this nominally with inflation but this can happen in real terms with productivity-led deflation. Look at 1870-1900. Wage was nominally flat over that period but persistent deflation of 1-1.5% (40% cumulative) did not stop 4-5% real GDP growth Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of. Trump: The US can grow at 15% if Warsh does the job he's capable of"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:29Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I know many Asian countries are hyperfocused on FX as FX drives inflation but what Miran says below is true for the US. That is because goods is only 20% of the economy and import is a subsector of that. Wage rent and energy (3 biggest service cost items) drive US inflation. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been relatively modest. Fed's Miran: would need a really big move in the dollar to affect inflation and the dollar's moves don't have a big impact on monetary policy have been"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:43Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"It is a feature not a bug. It is logical that consumer essentials would have better pricing power given lack of elasticity compared to durables and discretionaries. I am still gonna need clorox wipes if it costs me $8 from $5 (but obv I will switch to private labels on the way). It is pure math with a specific set of weightings but I do not object to your pt that standard of living is degrading when we have less money to spend on discretionaries. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021015871167049775"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:18Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@RealJohnGaltFla Imperfect as it is truflation does get the direction correct"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:27Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Long Thread: How Hyperinflation in the Late 1940s Allowed the Communists to Take Over China When Japan surrendered in [----] everyone knew the fragile alliance between the Nationalist/Kuomintang (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would collapse. But almost every outside observer expected the outcome to be decisively in the KMTs favor. On paper the advantage was overwhelming. The KMT controlled 2/3 of China with most of major cities and commanded more than [--] million troops with real artillery an air force and a navy backed by US aid accumulated during the war against Japan. The CCP had"
X Link 2026-02-10T05:04Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Control Group Oct: +0.5% (was +0.6%) Nov: +0.2% (was +0.4%) Dec: -0.1% What is most notable on the internals is that previously resilient nondurables (personal care apparels and sporting goods) and restaurants are inflecting lower. Truflations nondurable trend making sense. Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2% Retail Sales 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.6% Retail Sales ex auto 0.0% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.5% Retail Sales control group -0.1% Exp. 0.4% Last 0.2%"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This is why consumer inflation is inflecting lower despite tariffs. Consumers are super price sensitive. This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories This data confirms US consumer spending increases with deals hunting January credit card debt surged to all time high one of the best times to buy as retailers clear out inventories"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:14Z 21.1K followers, [----] engagements
"@StockMomo I would argue that the pinnacle was [----] when Michael Jordan won his 6th and last NBA championship"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:22Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@trade_set @JayLeonard That is called free money"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:25Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@GaryHaubold And folks wonder why China has solid opinions of Mao despite all his (admittedly many) faults. I do find it interesting and very much appreciate that many folks here including you are finding my coverage of Asian history of some interest"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:33Z 21.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Whos paying the tariffs again Import prices 0%. est 0.1% year-over-year Import prices 0%. est 0.1% year-over-year"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@VikingHedge But wouldnt that mean import px in dollar terms should be up not flat given the dollar depreciation"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:47Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Imagine what would happen to this if Trump Miran and Truflation turn out to be right Note that the admin is hard at work softballing payroll but not the CPI"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:05Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Not possible without a major flip in this current macro regime. And that regime change needs to start taking place just about now BREAKING: President Trump says Republicans should win in a landslide this November. BREAKING: President Trump says Republicans should win in a landslide this November"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:18Z 21.2K followers, 10.6K engagements
"If taxmen arent paying taxes why should we 🚨 BREAKING: IRS SCANDAL EXPOSED 🚨 Youre not going to believe this. Sen. Joni Ernst has revealed that IRS EMPLOYEES OWE $50000000 IN UNPAID TAXES. Yes. The people who enforce the tax laws arent paying them. Let that sink in. Nearly [----] IRS employees almost 10% of https://t.co/IvBL7Y5JT7 🚨 BREAKING: IRS SCANDAL EXPOSED 🚨 Youre not going to believe this. Sen. Joni Ernst has revealed that IRS EMPLOYEES OWE $50000000 IN UNPAID TAXES. Yes. The people who enforce the tax laws arent paying them. Let that sink in. Nearly [----] IRS employees almost 10% of"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:44Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting juxtaposition between the two FOMC voters this yr. Lets see how the data shakes out this wk"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:16Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@market_sleuth [--] months is a long way though. I remember back in early [----] in the midst of Russian-Ukraine war breakout and oil/CPI going out of control the mkt consensus was that Biden was gonna get wiped but by Nov the worst was over and the Dems managed to do better than many feared"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:21Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Core PCE comps are easier thru Feb (0.32% in Jan and 0.45% in Feb). Depending on how quickly Feb PPI is released we can bring it down enuf to squeeze a March cut. Agreed comps get tougher post-Feb but my take is if inflation is weak in Jan-Feb (seasonal peak) it is only directionally going even lower afterwards. The big X factor here is when does the OER finally inflect towards zero. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021326577410216285 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021326577410216285"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:53Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Kinda scary if you extrapolate what this means for home px in SF/NYC and Seattle metro. Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from that what you will. Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:08Z 21.2K followers, 16.9K engagements
"Scary read. Unlike in [----] Chinese supply is no longer high-cost/inefficient meaning the marginal capacity that needs to be cut now lies in the Western world. The Bear Case on Chemicals. From HSBC. https://t.co/vA1YCwdc8r The Bear Case on Chemicals. From HSBC. https://t.co/vA1YCwdc8r"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:19Z 21.2K followers, 31.1K engagements
"@jeremie0117 Which part Enlighten me"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:32Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@DoejiStar Yes AHE is better but still downward trend"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:39Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@DoejiStar You should take 2% out of the current GDP growth figure as that part is the result of tariff-driven collapsing imports counted as a positive contribution to the GDP. That will go away once we lap the tariff. Without that gdp growth is in line with the recent trend 2-3%"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:53Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@jeremie0117 Got ya. Appreciate the nuance"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:42Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom"
X Link 2026-02-11T02:15Z 21.2K followers, 13.9K engagements
"When you consider that housing and autos are the two largest sources of collateral behind new consumer credit creation hard to see how China can successfully reflate without addressing these two. CHINA'S CAR SALES FALL 19.5% IN JANUARY DECLINING FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH-BRICS China will not get out of this deflationary spiral. Housing market + Car manufacturing are already in this spiral. CHINA'S CAR SALES FALL 19.5% IN JANUARY DECLINING FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH-BRICS China will not get out of this deflationary spiral. Housing market + Car manufacturing are already in this spiral"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:33Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Also likely (imo) we will have a big FX volatility event to cow the world into mass adopting USD stablecoins. Crash then moon setup. Timing and pathway unknown so do not try to trade it but this is the ultimate endgame I foresee. (Bessent was hired for this ultimate job imo) Translation: We're gonna cut the overnight rate to Valhalla issue all our debt in bills and financially repress anyone who holds them Also: stablecoins are the future of finance Absolutely not a coincidence that they would be a large buyer of t-bills Translation: We're gonna cut the overnight rate to Valhalla issue all"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@ca_amst Pathway unknown But one source of fuel for fire is that US wants to cut rates and Japan needs to hike rates. Another source: deflationary wave hitting the US (if Truflation is indeed right) and the RoW finally having to deal with it"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:50Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"If payroll continues to bend-but-not-break but the CPI/PCE confirms Truflations trajectory we can get both high real growth and low rates (albeit relatively jobless) Everyone at this pt knows Trump loves to exaggerate but directionally there is a visible pathway. TRUMP CALLS FOR WORLDS LOWEST US INTEREST RATES Donald Trump said the US should have the lowest interest rates globally arguing that every percentage point cut saves $600 billion and could erase the deficit. In a Fox Business interview he said lower rates are a paper TRUMP CALLS FOR WORLDS LOWEST US INTEREST RATES Donald Trump said"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:57Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Seasonally noisy but solid #. (Hassett/Navarro fooled us all) +ve: - Goods economy clearly rebounding with +33K in construction (data centers) - Mfg flipped +ve with +5K. -ve: - Services is flat without +137K HC so signals continued stress in the discretionary services sector. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:43Z 21.2K followers, 11.6K engagements
"Not taking away the bullish reaction today. But looking ahead. A couple things: - Bond bulls still have a decent shot at the CPI. Payroll was a nice to have. - Jan NFP cutoff date is Jan [--]. UPS+AMZN layoffs (46K combined) came after so that sets the stage for the Feb NFP. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring adjustments and weather. Unless it is a significant deviation from the consensus I would be careful to extrapolate too much from it - boom or doom. Your reminder that Dec-Jan NFP tends to be most noisy due to holiday seasonal hiring"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:59Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@TexasOncologist Not AMZN iirc. But they should still impact payrolls negatively. UR is always a question mark given the participation shift is always a black box"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:03Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@riceforthought Jan is always a hot month so expectation is fairly high there (+0.3% MoM). But Truflation Fed Nowcast and GS are all saying things looking lower right now. We shall see"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:07Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Deflationist Recessionist The missing pieces are productivity and lag between capex cycle and labor cycle. The signs of goods growth are showing up. Pickup in construction and mfg in todays NFP suggests as much. The next battle is the inflation part. We shall see this Fri"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:01Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@RenMacLLC Any potential reasons this is happening HC and education sector outperformance may be one I can think of"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:31Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"DXY and JPY fading the NFP move and some more. 30Y +0.1bp with TLT barely red (-.2%) with curve flattening. Fading the NFP or positioning ahead of the CPI"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:35Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Tfw you are accused of being a bear by the bulls and being a bull by the bears 😂"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:38Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"CBO famously forecasted Obamacare would reduce budget deficits back in [----]. The deficits actually grew. CBO SEES LARGE 'HISTORICALLY UNUSUAL' DEFICITS IN COMING DECADE CBO SEES LARGE 'HISTORICALLY UNUSUAL' DEFICITS IN COMING DECADE"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:36Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the magnitude of productivity growth and its deflationary impact on px & labor. https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:25Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The current dynamic of the goods economy outperforming services starts to make a lot of sense in this light. Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the magnitude of productivity growth and its deflationary impact on px & labor. https://t.co/ADgJ61mo3N Imagine Main St firms like GM or WMT reducing their spending on legal accounting consulting marketing and customer service by 80%+ without disrupting their biz. I may be underestimating both the"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:41Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The golden age of action / martial arts films is coming Seedance [--] just dropped and someone created a full Jet Li vs Jackie Chan scene $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $META $NFLX $WBD $PSKY $DIS https://t.co/x7QEYK68hX Seedance [--] just dropped and someone created a full Jet Li vs Jackie Chan scene $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG $META $NFLX $WBD $PSKY $DIS https://t.co/x7QEYK68hX"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:00Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Coals resurgence as a bridge fuel was inevitable. Coal is how China is absorbing its AI-driven growth in electricity demand and keeping energy cost contained. TRUMP SAYS HE IS DIRECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY TO ISSUE FUNDS TO COAL PLANTS IN STATES INCLUDING WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO TRUMP SAYS HE IS DIRECTING THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY TO ISSUE FUNDS TO COAL PLANTS IN STATES INCLUDING WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:08Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@WesleyP65443 Usually the credit card balance means balance that is more than [--] days old and accruing interest"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:15Z 21.2K followers, 44.1K engagements
"One of the things that makes trading and investing so fun is that even if I had perfect foresight on macro data and earnings I do not think my trading performance would be much better. In fact I probably would have blown my account multiple times due to overconfidence"
X Link 2026-02-12T01:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"For those who are doubting the veracity here is the source. 47% have credit card balance so the median is indeed zero"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:16Z 21.2K followers, 56.9K engagements
"@cabtot33 @vern82488114 Fine"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:17Z 21.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@Coffee__Capital Right Market cheering 15% tariff because it was no longer 50%"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:37Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Somehow she managed to convince Americans that stock market needs to burn in order to save America. Pam Bondi in response to Epstein questions. The Dow is over [-----] thats what we should be talking about https://t.co/pFmX8kfkcb Pam Bondi in response to Epstein questions. The Dow is over [-----] thats what we should be talking about https://t.co/pFmX8kfkcb"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:06Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like airfares will be deflating again this month. I remember when every Southwest flight was 90-100% full. I remember when every Southwest flight was 90-100% full"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:47Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Why everyones credit card rates remain elevated at 22-25% even for those with stellar FICO scores. Juxtapose that with CCC corporates yields having compressed from near 16% at the [--] peak to now 9.7%. (Similar avg default rate at 10-20%/yr) 🚨Americans are defaulting on their debt at a CRISIS pace: The percentage of US credit card debt that is seriously delinquent 90+ days hit 12.7% in Q4 [----] the highest since Q4 [----]. Over the last [--] years the percentage has SKYROCKETED by [--] percentage points. This is now https://t.co/glrVZHByKk 🚨Americans are defaulting on their debt at a CRISIS pace: The"
X Link 2026-02-12T12:45Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Time to spread USD stablecoins to the Netherlands. The Netherlands government is about to pass a bill introducing a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. Every country in Europe that has tried this has cancelled it after the wealthy flee to cheaper tax jurisdictions. Even if they have not sold yet they will be forced to pay https://t.co/2AAhcIjm0p The Netherlands government is about to pass a bill introducing a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. Every country in Europe that has tried this has cancelled it after the wealthy flee to cheaper tax jurisdictions. Even if they have not sold yet"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:55Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The initial Jan [----] NFP was +143K; now -48K. Not sure why folks take offense at others thinking the NFP is garbage. That is conclusive at this pt. Just keep that thought away from trading and even from bad data you can still id a trend of goods outperforming services ex-HC. For the payroll report the headline number was clearly better than expected. Thats quite good. The January report includes benchmark revisions though and that reduced employment by about 900K. Here's the revision table showing the distribution. https://t.co/rmcjMRvhtv For the payroll report the headline number was clearly"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:23Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"I stand corrected on my previous post blaming weather for the weak home sales number. The West (which largely escaped the winter storm) took the brunt of the softness. @yieldsearcher Existing homes sales were the worst in the West though where temperatures were significantly above average. https://t.co/osjd0v04vH https://t.co/3s2QBy8R5X https://t.co/Symfic65t5 @yieldsearcher Existing homes sales were the worst in the West though where temperatures were significantly above average. https://t.co/osjd0v04vH https://t.co/3s2QBy8R5X https://t.co/Symfic65t5"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:26Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Correlation of [--] classic recessionary reaction (equity metals crude down / DXY and rates rallying) That was not the message the NFP yesterday was telling me. TLT higher than pre-NFP level"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:06Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Saw David Einhorn on CNBC yesterday saying he had a big silver long position"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:28Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"On a day that posted the weakest home sales number XHB is one of the rare greens on the screen. The pod kids are buying home builders now The pod kids are buying home builders now"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:53Z 21.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Cessnadriver50 @FibonacciInves1 Productivity gains. Either corporations get massive margin benefits which are taxable or they produce and deliver goods and services at ridiculously low cost that makes things affordable"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:24Z 21.2K followers, [---] engagements
"I agree with the last sentence. But productivity gain-led deflation is a good kind of deflation if the govt can manage the social disruption element. 1870-1900 is the prime example with railroad oil and electricity creating ton of disruption and many losers (horse carriages and farmers esp) but overall the economy did amazing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022015713385361700 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022015713385361700"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:31Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@Cessnadriver50 @FibonacciInves1 Depends on how much human labor demand is permanently replaced. Those whose labor is not wanted will still need some income. Btw this is pretty far out stuff. Plenty of time to see where this goes and adjust accordingly. But agreed that nothing can stop the deflation train"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:38Z 21.2K followers, [--] engagements
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