# ![@walt373 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::193590927.png) @walt373 Walter

Walter posts on X about stocks, vix, money, china the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +79%
- [--] Month [------] -99%
- [--] Months [---------] +517%
- [--] Year [----------] +362%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +15%
- [--] Month [--] -77%
- [--] Months [---] +646%
- [--] Year [---] +105%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.68%
- [--] Month [-----] +2%
- [--] Months [-----] +6%
- [--] Year [-----] +7.60%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::193590927/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::193590927/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  41.44% [stocks](/list/stocks)  11.71% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  7.21% [countries](/list/countries)  6.31% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.7% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.8% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.9%

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks) 13.51%, [vix](/topic/vix) 4.5%, [money](/topic/money) 3.6%, [china](/topic/china) 3.6%, [futures](/topic/futures) 3.6%, [market cap](/topic/market-cap) 2.7%, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) 2.7%, [$smci](/topic/$smci) 2.7%, [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) 2.7%, [ai](/topic/ai) 1.8%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@stokedonwaves](/creator/undefined) [@orrdavid](/creator/undefined) [@alphaexllc](/creator/undefined) [@svrnco](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@prpl8](/creator/undefined) [@jjdaqua](/creator/undefined) [@michaelxpettis](/creator/undefined) [@briangobosox](/creator/undefined) [@yetanothervalue](/creator/undefined) [@blueoutliercap](/creator/undefined) [@thelonghappy](/creator/undefined) [@abcampbell](/creator/undefined) [@atelicinvest](/creator/undefined) [@deepdishenjoyer](/creator/undefined) [@harrisonkatz](/creator/undefined) [@d1fund](/creator/undefined) [@pansarev](/creator/undefined) [@lurker8679](/creator/undefined) [@thewritser](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI)](/topic/$smci) [Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)](/topic/$siri) [Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty SiriusXM Common Stock (LSXMK)](/topic/$lsxmk) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [pepe in a memes world (PEW)](/topic/$pew) [Reddit, Inc.  (RDDT)](/topic/$rddt) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)](/topic/$pm) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [DeepSeek (DEEPSEEK)](/topic/deepseek) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/walmart) [Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)](/topic/spirit-airlines) [Electronic Arts Inc. (EA)](/topic/$ea) [We Love T (WLT)](/topic/$wlt) [Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI)](/topic/$aci) [JOE (JOE)](/topic/$joe) [DHI Group, Inc. (DHX)](/topic/$dhx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"The makers of AI are probably also the best users of AI. Best use case of AI is coding and improving AI. $20/mo chatbot is just a stepping stone. Endgame is to make god in a box which can figure out hard problems like how to monetize AI cure cancer take over the world etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2022078324542263516)  2026-02-12T22:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"RT @svrnco: Only a matter of time before LLMs start to become good discretionary investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2021675540634099738)  2026-02-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting factoid on S&P [---] options https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4926074"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2015648983486529554)  2026-01-26T04:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PEW is a net-net with cash market cap not incinerating money buying back shares and you can sell [----] $2.50 puts for $0.60 (85% IV). Its already a net-net and itd have to fall 40% for those puts to break even. Not sure if Im missing something since short interest is 10%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2016658952541393138)  2026-01-28T23:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"These $ORR calls have doubled in a month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2020873348117365133)  2026-02-09T14:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Breakeven if $ORR makes 7% in half a year. easy bet June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble. June 18th [--] strike calls seem randomly underpriced if anyone wants to gamble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2008952722586800260)  2026-01-07T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TLT calls look interesting. Long bonds have gone nowhere for three years and IV is near lows. If the software massacre is to be believed AI could cause a lot of job losses and deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2019841127642546665)  2026-02-06T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reddit $RDDT is looking really interesting. 7th most visited site on the internet. 70% yoy revenue growth 21x fwd P/E $2B net cash. Insider just bought $7.5M of stock. Put up [--] profitable quarters so could be eligible for S&P [---] inclusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2022564659031871889)  2026-02-14T06:52Z [----] followers, 25.3K engagements


"Disagree and here's why in a diagram"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1501292366958837763)  2022-03-08T20:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"There are two kinds of momentum stocks: ones that are being bought because theyre going up and ones that are being bought *despite* going up. If the stock starts dipping the buyers become less eager in the former and more eager in the latter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1931490692322243037)  2025-06-07T23:17Z [----] followers, 23.9K engagements


"@head_ass_420 That and the elevated short interest do give me pause. Have to wonder what Im missing. But my guess is its gotten dumped along with other high-beta tech/intangibles stocks lately"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/2022721374607790263)  2026-02-14T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Lot of ways for things to go bad. Everything gets thrown out the window if there is conflict. Historically Chinese stocks have done very poorly even if you throw out the -100% drawdown since they generally don't care about shareholders. @garyHeff Regime change zeroed both Russian and Chinese markets early/mid 20th century. Russian co's still exist but effectively zeroed again for US owners [--] years ago. US declaring illegal to own and ETF/ADRs liquidating holdings at pennies. VIE illegality enforced Lots of ways to zero. @garyHeff Regime change zeroed both Russian and Chinese"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1750941429130543217)  2024-01-26T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid -Growth prospects fading -Deteriorating balance sheet -Bad governance w/ entrenched leadership -Hostility toward shareholders -Low optical multiple Am I talking about China or a value trap stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1752055288931189204)  2024-01-29T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Spot VIX is also flat from a decade ago. The futures term structure is everything. Just fascinating that these are such consistent losers over decades and yet people are still drawn to them. Ones like IWM/QQQ will probably turn eventually but the lost years are unrecoverable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1753967021757202611)  2024-02-04T02:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@vixologist @prpl8 @OptionPit I think there's a more "direct" arb which is if people are bidding SPX calls pushing SPX vol up then arbs can sell SPX options and buy VX to capture the spread SPX vol and VX futures should trade in line as I understand it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754158555387580503)  2024-02-04T15:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JJD_Aqua @michaelxpettis Debts owed between banks could be flattened to your point. But the main problem is that assets are backed by real estate which is down across the country so no diversification benefit there. Debts need to be flattened across the whole economy i.e. losses allocated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754161188596809821)  2024-02-04T15:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JJD_Aqua @michaelxpettis Real estate is down because it was overvalued in a bubble and that has popped. The banks being insolvent is more of an effect than a cause. Just my opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754173014789267920)  2024-02-04T16:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Consensus opinion is still that $NVDA is the poster child of a wild and unjustifiable bubble. It's not really a bubble if we are still debating earnings multiples. It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings. https://t.co/kp8gEepl6M It's funny seeing people say $NVDA is in a massive bubble at 35x sales not realizing they are probably trading at like 35x forward earnings. https://t.co/kp8gEepl6M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754176250929721580)  2024-02-04T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TSP net-net at 10% of cash. Extremely hairy but I know you degens are into that. Is the cash still in the US Delisting/going dark on 2/8 Suspected espionage Nvidia chips shipment intercepted by US govt Really really temped to dive head first into the dumpster fire that is $TSP. Because I love getting #valuetrapped Thoughts: 1/ buying at 10% of net cash 😳 2/ the cash is real Company raised $1bn in an IPO in [----] (remember the good old days🎉🎉🎉) 3/ they burned 1.8bn 🔥 https://t.co/o79aMdHE4A Really really temped to dive head first into the dumpster fire that is $TSP. Because I love getting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754518237809623087)  2024-02-05T14:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Equity market cap looking a little dicey now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1754605385061720313)  2024-02-05T20:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A few years ago the CCP ever allowing China's RE bubble to pop (let alone popping it themselves) was a fringe idea. Evergrande was TBTF. Now after years of negotiations offshore bondholders are about to get zeroed out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1755646152832143370)  2024-02-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@briangobosox Trying to think of the trade-offs of possible paths forward. Seems like the risk of ripping the band-aid off quickly is that a deval could be chaotic and they could lose control which may be unacceptable to the CCP. Alternative is spending years stuck in a debt-deflation morass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756361217092833561)  2024-02-10T16:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@briangobosox If HH assets are bad they've been way overspending relative to true wealth. Realization of this is causing readjustment of spending downwards. Can mark down fake wealth/GDP externally w/ RMB deval or internally w/ deflation. Or keep fake marks but show no growth for years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756379363698721118)  2024-02-10T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Sg423Sg @BluthCapital @profplum99 @EricBalchunas The idea is that if you buy 1% of a $1T market cap company it will have more price impact than if you buy 1% of a $100B market cap co. (The stock will have a larger % gain.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1756765093918830772)  2024-02-11T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@YetAnotherValue $SIRI borrow cost is 40% so if you assume it's fairly valued now the stock price should fall by the amount longs can earn by lending out stock $1 by Q3. So the spread for $LSXMK is like 6% after you subtract that. It's not bad annualized but not as eye popping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1758886173852741712)  2024-02-17T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@YetAnotherValue But a lot of longs don't earn the full borrow cost so if you're already long $SIRI it's a no-brainer to swap into $LSXMK so in that case it's a fat arb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1758889406713286843)  2024-02-17T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @blueoutliercap @TheLongHappy MMs and option buyers can both win bc they aren't playing the same game. MMs are hedging exposure daily whereas you let them ride. Drift over months/years is how you profit but where the stock goes over that timeframe is irrelevant to MMs if it doesn't gap there suddenly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1759997004938137691)  2024-02-20T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid @blueoutliercap @TheLongHappy I see it as outsourcing risk management to someone with better infrastructure massively diversified balance sheet better access to borrow/financing algos and traders that can watch every stock all day. MMs are paid for performing a service and it's well worth it to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1760005345215119365)  2024-02-20T18:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"At some point enough boomers retire that they turn into net sellers. Market is gonna get bumpy if this line starts going down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1760357863589900722)  2024-02-21T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @EdwardOThorp My thinking is people are excited about the halvening and willing to pay up for leverage in crypto right now. Futures gives you leverage and the contango is the cost. So this kind of trade is like loaning out your balance sheet. Get paid for providing a service that's in demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761526605648679337)  2024-02-24T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @Biohazard3737 @NYYTKM And they are so diversified. You'd basically be shorting a slice of the US economy at reasonable valuations. I would at least want a funding short to be in secular stagnation/decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1761562738768110030)  2024-02-25T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We could find out if $SMCI gets added to the S&P [---] tonight. Options at 90% IV vs 110%-160% historical give a free look IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763613034038063507)  2024-03-01T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Got a free look and liked what we saw. $SMCI calls could double based on the AH move. $DECK calls were even cheaper. The timing was known. seems inefficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763941587267015063)  2024-03-02T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SMCI and $DECK were the top two holdings of the S&P Midcap [---]. I'm not sure what goes into the decision of index additions but it seems pretty straightforward this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1763956123592212841)  2024-03-02T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@calvinfroedge Hot inflation - high rates for longer. High rates benefit cash-rich companies and harm indebted companies. Big tech have net cash. Small caps have shorter maturity debt than large caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1767612453553132008)  2024-03-12T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Evergrande first defaulted in [----] and it took until now for the bezzel to come to light. I havent seen anything yet to convince me that Chinas RE/financial sector isnt one giant ponzi. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/china-accuses-evergrande-of-78-billion-fraud-among-worst-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/china-accuses-evergrande-of-78-billion-fraud-among-worst-ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1770225323474399236)  2024-03-19T23:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stockspinoffss They emerged from BK a while ago why didn't the indexes buy earlier Is there something about having preferred shares that prevents that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1770416808136245536)  2024-03-20T11:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm a novice at currencies so maybe I'm missing something but Yen puts look interesting. Spot JPY/USD is [------] so Mar [--] [-----] puts for [--------] make 55% if JPY is unch in a year. Contango due to carry. Good news/bad price reaction to BOJ hike. Chart looks like make or break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1772657522215698853)  2024-03-26T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Could go the way of the Russian market. Assets are still valuable but citizens of an enemy state will have no claims on them. Rule of law and shareholder rights were never strong to begin with. @prpl8 Chinese stock value = discounted value of dividends * years until an invasion of Taiwan. For some this is a very large number for others it's like [--]. @prpl8 Chinese stock value = discounted value of dividends * years until an invasion of Taiwan. For some this is a very large number for others it's like 4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1772839393964773543)  2024-03-27T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@abcampbell Say a bank never recognizes losses. But their cash flow dries up so they can't pay their own debts. So their lenders extend/pretend. Repeat. Eventually zombification of banking sector. Bad debts hog the b/s and prevent new lending effectively causing credit contraction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1774144219365445946)  2024-03-30T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@orrdavid Where there is high leverage there is latent volatility. whether it is on the company's balance sheet or the option chain or the trader's position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1775556443430617140)  2024-04-03T16:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @orrdavid Of course they're measuring and hedging every known risk factor. Then this leads even more confidence and more leverage. The smartest guys in the room believing they've tamed risk but then something that's never happened before happening is a tale as old as time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1775560464979632590)  2024-04-03T16:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest @mithridatistcap @RyeNotBerben Far from a single example. Just especially notable since the theft was perpetrated by the most high profile Chinese founder/company. How many frauds have come out of China Western investors haven't made money in Chinese stocks for how long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1777756250047967487)  2024-04-09T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Sparticuszorro Be dumb and get sucked in early seems to be the play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1778582191640814046)  2024-04-12T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@digitalturtle_ In practice things aren't as volatile and correlation isn't as low/reliable so the geometric return matters more on a longer timeframe. But there's been a decent bonus from SD for the classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio and even more true if you threw in gold BTC etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1778752840355242182)  2024-04-12T11:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@atelicinvest It's a shame that some legendary investors said things that turned people's brains off when it came to diversification"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1781417379366334972)  2024-04-19T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Maybe markets aren't broken and fundamentals still matter https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cny-equity-valuation-theories/ https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cny-equity-valuation-theories/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1782435245557428651)  2024-04-22T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Sharpe ratio is underrated imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1782845375717470534)  2024-04-23T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tinfoil hat theory. Does US want a big CNH deval JPY decline helps. -Geopolitical win. China loses purchasing power for commodities it's stockpiling/for military buildup. -Export deflation to ROW maybe desired at this point. -Deflation opens door for Fed cuts before election"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1784244472647135237)  2024-04-27T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QT_Machine Yeah that's right but if interest rates go to zero you're probably happy you have BOXX instead of most other things"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1785679773865238544)  2024-05-01T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@abcampbell Maybe this suggests the Ukraine war will have a resolution before they move on Taiwan Since I doubt Russia wants to fight in both places at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787121922154582274)  2024-05-05T14:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Does this suggest the war in Ukraine will have a resolution before any potential Taiwan invasion Since I doubt Russia wants to fight in both places at once. US intelligence officials assess that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues including a potential invasion of Taiwan. https://t.co/ABcZjX1JF2 via @bpolitics US intelligence officials assess that Russia and China are working more closely together on military issues including a potential invasion of Taiwan. https://t.co/ABcZjX1JF2 via @bpolitics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787124827305718038)  2024-05-05T14:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves A few more ideas Fund redemptions Leveraged ETFs Futures rollers like VXX UNG Index funds on addition/deletion CTA/vol control funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787828148681199882)  2024-05-07T12:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"No such thing as septuple tops $PM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1787925574842769637)  2024-05-07T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@KevinLMak @MikeTsangaris Can I ask which broker allows you to execute it I know some are allowed to trade expert market stocks but haven't been able to find out how"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1789652898416050600)  2024-05-12T13:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@OptionAlpha3 @DeepDishEnjoyer Maybe just sell GME far otm puts and buy some IWM puts cause if GME fell 90% something terrible probably happened to the whole market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1790219846073950570)  2024-05-14T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FFIE [----] puts expiring on Friday is [----] bid while stock is [----] right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1790807609231946004)  2024-05-15T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves I am a scaredy cat hate selling calls. I like selling the puts - don't think it will get to 40c in [--] days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1790823105469751458)  2024-05-15T19:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there. $FFIE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1791157393490890797)  2024-05-16T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@harrisonkatz I think the belief is that share count is stale and the real number is higher. There are so many dollars flying around in the stock/options that I have a hard time believing one group of manipulators would be able to send it so much higher on their own. It'd be really risky too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1791552371190899189)  2024-05-17T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Prions are scary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1792378894126837800)  2024-05-20T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@D1Fund Sorry I am slow but what did Sonnenshein stepping down imply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1792644104578371754)  2024-05-20T19:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@D1Fund Insane call 🫡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1792649451686830081)  2024-05-20T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @DeepDishEnjoyer Interesting question. It will be worse for both longs and shorts so not sure if it will actually change the value. It should still be useful to hedge underlying. If underlying is liquid you could delta hedge instead of trying to trade the option"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1792708633891049771)  2024-05-21T00:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I think this will always be true: $ will be redeemed from underperformers and allocated to outperformers. How much time do laggards generally get before redemptions start 1-3 yrs And I believe after [--] yrs is about the time momentum strategies start losing to mean reversion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1793411120591413704)  2024-05-22T22:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Alpha_Ex_LLC Could it make sense to buy VIX straddles VIX calls could have an explosive payoff but I would think straddles would have a much higher winrate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1794396872246771740)  2024-05-25T15:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pansareV @Alpha_Ex_LLC The problem with VIX calls is the winrate is so low even if you think the EV is massively positive. The Kelly bet would be very small. But if you could maybe sacrifice some of the mega +EV and manipulate the winrate higher it could result in an overall better bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1794398018168394032)  2024-05-25T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pansareV @Alpha_Ex_LLC I mean the ideal bet is one that wins in all circumstances - if vol is cheap enough maybe a way to structure a trade that profits from the contango if nothing happens but make money on a VIX spike too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1794399968754815251)  2024-05-25T16:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Blue_Velvet_Cap I actually think short and hold is -EV on all time horizons You'll probably win the vast majority of time but the times you don't have such massive gains that the overall EV is still negative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1794738268883579084)  2024-05-26T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rogercfr If there's anything we've learned over the past few years it's that suckers are a renewable resource"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1800234534178369669)  2024-06-10T18:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The teeth gnashing over market breadth is becoming deafening. So how many portfolios are structured in a way that can be boiled down to a single bet - whether these lines go up or down IWM/SPY peaked in [----] and RSP/SPY in [----]. 2% of stocks accounted for all returns over [--] years. Distribution becomes more skewed the longer your holding period. If you picked [--] random stocks chance of picking no winners = [------] = 82%. Long-term concentrated buy and hold is hard mode. Is my logic sound 2% of stocks accounted for all returns over [--] years. Distribution becomes more skewed the longer your"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1803821691048472940)  2024-06-20T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Junk stocks vs junk bonds $IWM / $JNK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1821265231357579489)  2024-08-07T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@orrdavid Risk-free rate in Brazil is 10.5% so that's part of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1821649137240093176)  2024-08-08T20:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Beliefs about how the market works need to be risk managed. Diversification sizing stops. not just for positions but entire worldviews. Because conviction in something that's wrong is how you get hurt badly. People are more likely to go all in on an ideology than a stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1833918266764656858)  2024-09-11T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Theres already an artificial intelligence smarter than any human - the market. But its intelligence is not unlimited. What if an ASI is invented thats smarter than the market would it render the market obsolete Maybe until theres a market of many ASIs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1854971898402422815)  2024-11-08T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"ES Dec [----] 10K calls for $50 look interesting. Big round number shouldnt matter but probably will. 14% CAGR to get ITM doesnt seem farfetched. Expires after the next election. Singularity/index bubble/runaway deficit hedge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1857523448961974594)  2024-11-15T20:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Like the idea of "creating" net-nets by selling deep OTM puts on volatile stocks w/ decent balance sheets and ability to raise. Sometimes the IV gets very high and the return on margin and total risk is nice. Example is GME when RK tweeted and the co raised"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1858904794494087294)  2024-11-19T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Small caps keep getting worse. Percentage of unprofitable companies in the Russell [----] has gone from 15% to 39% over the last [--] years. https://www.aristotlefunds.com/post/refining-small-caps https://www.aristotlefunds.com/post/refining-small-caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1866703110300995848)  2024-12-11T04:34Z [----] followers, 49.8K engagements


"Im guessing this was just due to value being popular and getting inflows. You didnt need to wait long before flipping your stocks to some less savvy value funds that had to a mandate to buy cheap stocks. Whether they were truly cheap in the long run wasnt your problem. Value investors complaining about markets being broken are really just complaining that greater fools stopped buying their investments with a bad net present value paid to shareholders wrapped up in some story. If a stock really will beat the market by 10%/year (and thus have a Value investors complaining about markets being"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1872363103729635820)  2024-12-26T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thanks for everything 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1874491992635531682)  2025-01-01T16:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lurker8679 @glbeaty Also SPWR LL CONN off the top of my head"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1874567764012363818)  2025-01-01T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Nice breakdown of an interesting trade to bet on a XIV-like collapse in $MSTR levered ETFs https://moontowermeta.com/another-xiv-brewing-in-crypto/ https://moontowermeta.com/another-xiv-brewing-in-crypto/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1882931511005229341)  2025-01-24T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lurker8679 One of the reasons we might have stopped improving AI was if it became too expensive. Deepseek also demonstrated theres still dramatic improvements we havent thought of yet. And I think will inspire many smaller firms to try whereas before most thought only big tech could"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1885191457922777519)  2025-01-31T05:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Inspired by my recent WMT trade that checked all the boxes -High momentum -Low volatility -Heading to $100 -My girlfriend loved Walmart+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1887596783716773935)  2025-02-06T20:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Junk stocks vs junk bonds $IWM / $JNK update. Do we not expect junk bonds to go down in recessions anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1898100901946290547)  2025-03-07T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Junk bonds still barely off the highs while stocks get killed. Seems like an interesting recession hedge unless you think the Fed will be buying $HYG again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1899176382841618814)  2025-03-10T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SPCE borrow cost going into orbit 300%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1902445995365167604)  2025-03-19T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting post on stocks w/ high borrow fees. They fell a lot but the borrow fees ate up all the returns for shorts. https://www.quantrocket.com/blog/borrow-fees-alpha/ https://www.quantrocket.com/blog/borrow-fees-alpha/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1902792507718766678)  2025-03-20T18:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@harrisonkatz Yeah most stocks dont lend out enough. Ive tried with tiny amounts to start and scale up if it gets lent out. But you also need to find out why they are so heavily shorted usually theres a good reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1903481785528287292)  2025-03-22T16:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thewritser @stoked_on_waves @FT @ClarkinM @CapitalShipyard @CalgaryLeveen @pls_fix_thx Deregistering is just a formality I believe. For example Spirit Airlines SAVEQ went bankrupt and "suspended" in Nov [----] and started trading OTC. Delisted and deregistered in Dec. Kept trading OTC until it emerged from bk in Mar 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1929970059234975755)  2025-06-03T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves @thewritser @FT @ClarkinM @CapitalShipyard @CalgaryLeveen @pls_fix_thx Could get booted to Expert Market then it'd be very illiquid but from what I've seen you need to be delinquent on filings for like [--] months to get sent there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1929971468114505729)  2025-06-03T18:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves A few nitpicks: MEHCQ keep restricted cash Earns interest on cash Expect $18M of data breach insurance TTAM is paying cure amounts $10M rough calc (payables subject to compromise) Lemonaid could sell higher (TTAM is stalking horse at $2.5M someone was interested at $10M)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1953555624706417120)  2025-08-07T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@stoked_on_waves Insurance receivables is in prepaid expenses and other current assets which you crossed out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1953569088577638444)  2025-08-07T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Seems like it's do or die soon for $IRBT. It had $41M unrestricted cash end of June and burned $30M in Q2. Carlyle has kicked the can on waivers but I doubt they put in new money. Waiver ends Sep [--] and BK warning in the 10-Q. CTB 0% and option IV in low 100s looks cheap to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1956448358584971424)  2025-08-15T20:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"VIX contango is uncommonly steep"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1961137228005908501)  2025-08-28T18:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JeffLippensCFA Bankruptcy docket https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/23andMe/Home-DocketInfo https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/23andMe/Home-DocketInfo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1963332725693190351)  2025-09-03T20:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ljp0101 @orrdavid What's the closed summer window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1970548549994549432)  2025-09-23T17:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EA spread looks tiny but some of the options look interesting. [----] call spreads for 30% return [----] $220 calls would go up on overbid or 10-bag on a deal break (IV 4% - 25%) so maybe a good hedge. Who is bid EA to a 3.5% spread if the deal is supposed to take a year Who is bid EA to a 3.5% spread if the deal is supposed to take a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/1973483377459388902)  2025-10-01T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WLT is now trading under $WLTG http://t.co/tWw6boBTH8 http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/WLTG/quote http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/WLTG/quote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/619218531587129344)  2015-07-09T18:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DonutShorts IB could not locate $WLTG shares for me :("  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/619598610808725504)  2015-07-10T20:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"How hilarious would it be if this Martin Shkreli circus marked the top for $VRX Or $IBB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/646932071965925376)  2015-09-24T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Case study of one of the rare bankrupt stocks that paid off (40x) $AAMRQ $AAL https://turnaround.org/cmaextras/Carl-Marks-Competition-American-Airlines.pdf https://turnaround.org/cmaextras/Carl-Marks-Competition-American-Airlines.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/666487409236930560)  2015-11-17T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ACI bonds are trading for a fraction of a penny. Just receiving the Dec [--] interest payment would make them 10-baggers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/667408784902475777)  2015-11-19T18:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BTUUQ equity committee denied http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peabody-energy-bankruptcy-shareholder-idUSKBN15336B http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peabody-energy-bankruptcy-shareholder-idUSKBN15336B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/822208611405406208)  2017-01-19T22:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$CIE bonds trading at 18c on the dollar. Market cap $185m. Stock borrow cost 1.2%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/843256320950243332)  2017-03-19T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@carl_haggard Warrants are a relatively small amount compared to new shares issued w/ the units. Aug [--] will see warrants hit market but it's not a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/884121562865127425)  2017-07-09T18:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@carl_haggard End of DSPP on July [--] should actually result in a decrease of selling pressure soon after as new share issuance ends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/884121921750786048)  2017-07-09T18:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BTC I can't envision institutions collectively being prudent and ignoring a bubble. Most have zero exposure to the best-performing asset so that exposure can only go up. Float is tiny (I don't see alt coins as substitutes). But I'm skeptical on blockchain's usefulness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/944647987422289920)  2017-12-23T19:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Another Downgrade for Fairholme Morningstar 1-star rating w/ negative outlook. More staff departures and liquidity issues. $JOE $FNMA $SHLD $SRG http://www.morningstar.com/articles/853729/another-downgrade-for-fairholme.html http://www.morningstar.com/articles/853729/another-downgrade-for-fairholme.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/970328798850899968)  2018-03-04T16:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LSValue $USNU [---] P/E [---] P/B 100% of market cap in cash growing revenues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/984191370259726338)  2018-04-11T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BH and $DHX to be deleted from S&P SmallCap [---] next week. Forced selling etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/walt373/status/990406405898285056)  2018-04-29T01:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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