# ![@variance_swap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::811444619967873028.png) @variance_swap Monolith Investments

Monolith Investments posts on X about uranium, in the, $ccj, term the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::811444619967873028/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::811444619967873028/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -81%
- [--] Month [------] -32%
- [--] Months [----------] +11,669%
- [--] Year [----------] +529%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::811444619967873028/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::811444619967873028/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -17%
- [--] Month [--] -88%
- [--] Months [---] +176%
- [--] Year [---] +139%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::811444619967873028/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::811444619967873028/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.19%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +11%
- [--] Year [-----] +31%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::811444619967873028/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::811444619967873028/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[uranium](/topic/uranium), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$ccj](/topic/$ccj), [term](/topic/term), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [$aspi](/topic/$aspi), [china](/topic/china), [russia](/topic/russia), [$uun](/topic/$uun), [if you](/topic/if-you)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@toiletkingcap](/creator/undefined) [@praisekek](/creator/undefined) [@rnsaffn](/creator/undefined) [@beentherecap](/creator/undefined) [@clp923](/creator/undefined) [@gavmccracken](/creator/undefined) [@quakes99](/creator/undefined) [@piterloskot82](/creator/undefined) [@hchris999](/creator/undefined) [@purpledrinkllc](/creator/undefined) [@paulomacro](/creator/undefined) [@crudeoil231](/creator/undefined) [@100xcompounding](/creator/undefined) [@valarian11](/creator/undefined) [@sprott](/creator/undefined) [@uraniuminsider](/creator/undefined) [@topsekret3450](/creator/undefined) [@capnek123](/creator/undefined) [@marketplunger1](/creator/undefined) [@siyul](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Cameco Corporation (CCJ)](/topic/$ccj) [ASP Isotopes Inc. (ASPI)](/topic/$aspi) [Denison Mines Corp (DNN)](/topic/$dnn) [Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)](/topic/$borr) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE)](/topic/$nxe) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@FedGuy12 Is Fiscal counter-acting Monetary Or are interest rates simply not the right tool to cool the economy this cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1674402898342453250)  2023-06-29T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jeffcomeau @quakes99 @Sprott Ive been saying this for almost a year. Management is too passive regarding the discount negative sentiment feeds on itself and the longer the vehicle trades at a discount to NAV the more likely investors will rotate to other vehicles / assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1674555121617780739)  2023-06-30T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@skysurfer75 @Sprott 🤮"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1674555248214523904)  2023-06-29T23:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@uraniuminsider Where will the uranium come from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1677361599923855362)  2023-07-07T17:54Z [---] followers, 15.4K engagements


"@LogicalThesis This market hasn't cared about 'fundamentals' in a long time. don't fight it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1678430761509089281)  2023-07-10T15:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ALikhodedov Great thread. Can you define 'moderate' bull Do you have a px target in mind for oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1678751373511258114)  2023-07-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PraiseKek How's the decoupling looking ;)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1691516843465535492)  2023-08-15T18:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PauloMacro Great short thesis for $tsla"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1694908404035137843)  2023-08-25T03:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ICBarrett Hi Andrew I'm trying to figure out what the value of RIG would be if valued at the replacement cost of their assets. Do you know anyone who has done work on this (i.e. ascribing market / replacement value to their [--] UDW [--] HE vessels less debt on a per sh basis)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1707478847430565925)  2023-09-28T19:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@acidinvestments Oh wow that's a nice catch. Is that from Frontier's recent earnings call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1707821584738574758)  2023-09-29T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BambroughKevin You're complaining about others rambling. your whole thread is a ramble that doesn't explain how the deficit gets resolved at $75/lb. Which new mines are coming online right now You think equities will re-rate lower if spot price goes from $75 to $100+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1707874243994685713)  2023-09-29T21:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes Agreed. Energy stocks look cheap to my eye given Saudis are in control and want higher for longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1712446664336622021)  2023-10-12T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ICBarrett @AlmostMongolian @OnlyFol35201188 The underinvestment thesis has been wrong for a while. there is supply growth in Brazil Guyana Canada Iran VE as well as OPEC+ spare capacity. Heck even Shale which was supposed to be 'done' is still growing. Producers are producing more with less $s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1722341400644039048)  2023-11-08T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WarrenPies @crudechronicle Warren would you not agree that demand growth is much lower than expected We are still way below the pre-covid demand trend (2019 dmnd was 100mmb/d and we barely 2mm b/d higher [--] yrs later). US GDP growth has been strong yet US oil dmnd growth has been anemic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1727336887772463577)  2023-11-22T14:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ProvenReserves Thanks. Agree with your thoughts. I think the next couple of quarters will remain cash flow negative due to reactivation costs. The bulls seem super confident that $500K+ day rates are coming but if they're wrong the leverage makes it a very risky bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1727391698425467180)  2023-11-22T18:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SHOPGod2 1/ Don't think anyone knows when Shale will peak. the bulls have been wrong year after year 2/ OPEC - ton of spare capacity 3/ Plenty of growth ex-US at $70+ oil (Brazil Canada Guyana Iran) 4/ OECD dmnd struggling; efficiency gains wfh etc. 5/ Oil likely stuck [--] - 90"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1731377705327763589)  2023-12-03T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@UrbanKaoboy @deerpointmacro Even collapsing the market won't really work. US producers have de-leveraged their balance sheets so lower prices likely won't hurt as much as in the past. Also px crash might lead to more consolidation and greater prodxn efficiencies down the road"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1732074159738409305)  2023-12-05T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@WTIBull Lol dude you're on fire but i think the frequency of shit posts is also a good contra indicator. Buying CL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1732438121017458902)  2023-12-06T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pwatts93 It would make sense. Nigeria is also a poor country and is hurting badly from the border closures. There is $200mm+ of trade that happens between the two countries as well as flow of labour"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1732878373074895018)  2023-12-07T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hchris999 I haven't done the work either. You would have to replicate the NPV model which isn't easy. My guess is that the market value would still be at a big discount to NPV even with the higher discount rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1733139646245142873)  2023-12-08T15:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TopSekret3450 From UBS quant desk - they've had some really good calls this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1735687276812804338)  2023-12-15T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap There is too much non-OPEC supply growth (shale Canada Brazil Guyana) and consumption intensity is declining in OECD. That being said I think there is room to move back to 80s if global GDP stays healthy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1736087206702248344)  2023-12-16T18:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PauloMacro There is no restocking necessary historical inv levels were excessive. That's why US doesn't bother about refilling SPR. Plenty of supply growth from Shale Brazil Guyana Canada. OECD demand will continue to weaken due to efficiency gains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1736174312036462796)  2023-12-16T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ALikhodedov Thanks for this. What are your thoughts regarding the supply side going into [----]. US shale growth seems to be higher than expected. Canada Guyana Brazil also likely to grow next year. Will [----] demand growth be enough to offset the supply growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1736595169053413445)  2023-12-18T03:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr Problem with oil is until we see some signs of discipline on the supply side it'll be hard to go long with confidence. US growing prodxn 1mm b/d doesn't help"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1736779418373140763)  2023-12-18T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MRBullMktEver @SoccerMomTrades Problem with buying KWEB is that China ultimately has a different vision for the internet and social media: they want to use it for the advancement of their industrial and manfg abilities and avoid it becoming a source of consumerism entertainment and 'bad morals'"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1736872062751502349)  2023-12-18T22:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MRBullMktEver @SoccerMomTrades Xi is not in favor of blindly copying Western-style capitalism. He wants private enterprise to advance semiconductors EVs green technologies and other strategic imperatives. He doesn't want the population wasting time making memes on the internet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1737114827141833170)  2023-12-19T14:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MRBullMktEver @SoccerMomTrades It is a style of capitalism for sure I'm just not sure to what extent the likes of Baidu Tencent BABA etc. will have to change their business models to adhere to Xi's vision and what that does to their near-term profitability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1737119802810908789)  2023-12-19T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @toiletkingcap @Beazy_Rampezy You're not going to be able to bring this market to balance with half a dozen miners. a lot of the uninvestable miners will become investable. Fusion is a pipe dream (always [--] years away)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1737230897080938514)  2023-12-19T21:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@quakes99 @Sprott @uraniuminsider @Yellowbull11 @PauloMacro @patmvcr @capnek123 Thanks for the due diligence . Also thanks to the fear mongers who created a buying opportunity ;)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1738065167894905049)  2023-12-22T05:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@kingfishcap Wow thats a really big allocation to a binary merger arb play (SAVE)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739338879348457541)  2023-12-25T17:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@clp923 Buying long dated puts is a not good insurance strategy. Youre paying a very high implied vol in a really illiquid market and suffering theta decay. Better approach is to diversify and know what you own in terms of asset quality etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1741988242268836337)  2024-01-02T01:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Congrats What are your favourite ideas for 2024"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1742194381665321450)  2024-01-02T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@3cheesemafia @mark_dow Agreed. And we got a ton of fiscal spending and consumers had cushion from excess savings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742220820976476326)  2024-01-02T16:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@DrJStrategy What would cutting rates aggressively do to the Canadian dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742930075530707395)  2024-01-04T15:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@PraiseKek @capnek123 They also own 22.5% stake in McLean lake mill and a portfolio of development assets (Waterbury). At the current spot price just their U3O8 stash is worth close to US$230mm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1743016435146805681)  2024-01-04T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Agreed. There is a lot of competition in the SMR space and very unclear which design(s) will end up being adopted on commercial scale. I think there might be a couple more SMR spacs / IPOs in the works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1743377504847491539)  2024-01-05T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@PraiseKek Why wouldn't they ramp up more in [----] I'm guessing it's because of labor and raw material constraints"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1744109090702332219)  2024-01-07T21:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TopSekret3450 Let's do a Lord Fed conference in Barbados ;)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1744841780816748602)  2024-01-09T22:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@marketplunger1 It's a bull market. just ride it imo and no need to overcomplicate it with shorting / hedging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744920067643441563)  2024-01-10T03:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@sunchartist Tofino. Vancouver Island. 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1745653823291453558)  2024-01-12T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@quakes99 John what do you think changed between now and September for KAP to alter their tone so drastically Is it changes in the C-suite Plain ignorance Or something more sinister / game theoretic where they wanted to trap Western utilities into false sense of comfort before rug pull"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1746606515912397139)  2024-01-14T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited Thanks Bob any thoughts on credit contraction Could this pull us into recession Banks have sustainably contracted overall credit growth since March [----] about [--] consecutive weeks. Initially the contraction in credit was driven by securities but recently the deceleration in loan growth has picked up pace. 1/2 https://t.co/urbq018T5o Banks have sustainably contracted overall credit growth since March [----] about [--] consecutive weeks. Initially the contraction in credit was driven by securities but recently the deceleration in loan growth has picked up pace. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1747296994861695308)  2024-01-16T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mellojello91 @BeenThereCap Yup. Looks like Spirit has already started hiring advisors for restructuring. If they liquidate some of those planes will be sold to international buyers exacerbating the domestic shortage and increasing fares for everyone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1748035661658001791)  2024-01-18T17:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@LionelHutz_Esq Let's protect the customers by driving the business into bankruptcy so that thousands lose their jobs and the planes potentially get sold to foreign buyers in liquidation exacerbating the domestic shortage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1748041890828529897)  2024-01-18T17:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @BenniKim Haha nice way to put it. What about the longs I guess they got blown out already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1748438062424568312)  2024-01-19T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@valueterminal Anything to keep your mind away from the disastrous economy public services infrastructure and housing market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1750001038315134979)  2024-01-24T03:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited But it causes bond yields to go lower which stimulates the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1752728890995253727)  2024-01-31T16:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Grainjones They're fked. based on their own cash flow sensitivity analysis a spike in spot price will lead to hundreds of millions in cash flow losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1757118133276442825)  2024-02-12T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@patrickadownes If not Ill be working there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1757594074893140148)  2024-02-14T02:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@z_axis_capital Thanks. Looks like Constellation is well covered. Any intel on which utilities are swimming naked What's the inventory coverage across the space From my understanding EU utes are generally better covered whereas a # of US utes will have to come to mkt big time this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1762529019730231745)  2024-02-27T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@tailor488058 It was disclosed that KAP is running into production issues because Putin has used up all their sulfuric acid to dissolve bodies of political opponents"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1763726193801490584)  2024-03-02T00:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Can you imagine 260mm lbs of contracting when LT prices are already $75+ Lmao"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1765060123154591797)  2024-03-05T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Michael71718318 If you're including the COVID data in your distribution that's going to really skew the distribution given the drop to zero / negative oil prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1767220495030579343)  2024-03-11T16:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@siyul Commercial real estate (vornado) copper offshore drilling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1772804189644627999)  2024-03-27T01:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@short_caveman @siyul @robert_ivanhoe Have a look at Amerigo Resources (ARG). Pure play copper exposure to Chiles largest mine (el teniente mine) without the exploration/ capex risk. 8% dividend yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1772814199581819323)  2024-03-27T02:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AAGresearch @KyriakosTrading @marketplunger1 That doesnt sound correct . [----] cash flow from operations was $163 but capex was much higher at $460. They had to issue shares to fund the gap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1773481007687086110)  2024-03-28T22:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KyriakosTrading @AAGresearch @marketplunger1 Take a look at Amerigo ($arg). Generates good cash flow pays 8% dividend yield and has no exploration risk. Exposure to one of Chiles largest mines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1773481440123949080)  2024-03-28T22:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @econ_713 I think oil can be pushed down if it keeps grinding higher here. China can release inventory OPEC+ likely starts cheating at higher prices. Biden could use the SPR again. it's election year after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1774830183465242627)  2024-04-01T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AAGresearch Alberto are there any other copper names you like beside $ERO Any thoughts on Amerigo (ARG)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1775242060372549696)  2024-04-02T19:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@lord_fed @TopSekret3450 Wyndham Clark"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1777323673105440814)  2024-04-08T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BradMunchen I've been following your posts for many years and the responses / replies are highly entertaining. I would just observe that the level of cult following in TSLA is unlike I've seen in any other stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1777357961934844156)  2024-04-08T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JfCollinso95293 @quakes99 @jpowell751 Because of shorter permitting timelines which allows GLO to be the only major greenfields project to have the potential to come online over the next 1-2 years and take advantage of very attractive U prices. Niger has a [--] year history of producing uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1779212988257300608)  2024-04-13T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hkuppy Apples vs. oranges Miners are a play on higher prices AMRK is a play on higher trading volumes / investor interest in precious metals If it's mostly CBs that are buying does AMRK really benefit or is it more geared to retail"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1780582774329516066)  2024-04-17T13:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Hope you guys didnt shit your pants and chase oil higher last night. Paulo is a smart guy but most macro folks dont really get the current geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. #oott #oil Yall still fading oil Yall still fading oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1781294942163197986)  2024-04-19T12:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PraiseKek My current sentiment: "i rue the day i first heard of Global Atomic""  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1782477471381651732)  2024-04-22T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@puppyeh1 After $SAVE / $JBLU i'm once bitten twice shy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1783509708050956367)  2024-04-25T14:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@orrdavid Does TLT track bond prices accurately Most ETFs have slippage / decay depending on how theyre structured"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1783954824985190730)  2024-04-26T20:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway Keep hearing about all this 'dilution'. that's coming. Why can't people just open up the 10-K / 10-Q and read. They converted the exchangeables and now they're FCF +ve / breakeven. They also have enough liquidity after the recent financing. Why do they 'HAVE' to keep diluting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1785715726881313244)  2024-05-01T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@gmoore1971 @YellowLabLife Why buy a physical trust / derivative when you can buy the actual thing They can also market some of this U3O8 to their customers now during contract negotiations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1788301537015423444)  2024-05-08T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@clp923 What is technical analysis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1791480827995689004)  2024-05-17T14:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@lundeen_ne When dayrates inflect higher these wont be valued on cash flow. Looking at the last cycle as a guide you can expect convergence to replacement value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1792624844594393128)  2024-05-20T18:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WTIBull If you divide $85 by the size of the BoCs balance sheet its actually not that much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1797001850111070437)  2024-06-01T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteveRodio Yea but it's an oversimplification because one of those 'drawdowns' (i.e. the peak) eventually led to a 80% loss of capital from which you never recovered. So regardless you need to have an exit strategy and you can't dismiss drawdowns as irrelevant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1798464584078045585)  2024-06-05T21:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TgMacro You sound like one of the guys who missed the +200% move since [----]. Keep trading the ST bumps we're busy making generational wealth over here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1800172206795960441)  2024-06-10T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@clp923 Nice charts. Which moving averages do you look at And how do you get the volume profile bars to appear on the left panel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1800249952582713414)  2024-06-10T19:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@The_RySci Global econ is not doing well. Inventories are building in China (iron ore copper) US econ is starting to slow (real consumption retail sales) India also weak. Meanwhile inventories remain bloated. WTI fair value is $70. https://x.com/UndervaluedOnG/status/1801384359317983256 Comparative inventory analysis for 6/12/24. Been & to right last 10wks. Down 12Mbbls this wk & [--] last [--]. Implied fair value for WTI [--] or $10 overvalued. Suggests price will should fundies not approve. Im surprised WTI is holding as well as it has been last wk 🤷♂ https://t.co/Js3vcI6xPu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1801619541945962926)  2024-06-14T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@saulgoo94536892 @uraniuminsider He's up 500% since [----]. More right than wrong. He also discloses all his holdings and trades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1803114884546068721)  2024-06-18T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@clp923 @saulgoo94536892 @uraniuminsider Yea but you're also -100% on a lot of option trades as well. options are binary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1803151121659089169)  2024-06-18T19:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@jmuelle99 @enCoreEnergy_EU @GoransonPaul Is there a reason why URG is so ignored / not talked about They have all the infrastructure in place to start producing no debt no massive capex. should start generating tons of cash flow in a few years yet trades at a puny $400mm market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1803463564696400013)  2024-06-19T16:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@marketplunger1 What about the demand side EV sales are slowing Chinese property malaise seems to be continuing / getting worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1803837974532243597)  2024-06-20T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Im already full up too. Been a painful 6mos. Ive never seen a bigger disconnect between px action and fundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1805657352323879084)  2024-06-25T17:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CRUDEOIL231 @SheDrills Agreed. It feels to me that they want to influence US elections. Or a more benign interpretation would be to punish the shorts who piled in after the last OPEC+ announcement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1806355704820756881)  2024-06-27T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyCynic "once excess OPEC+ volumes come back". that could take a while given how lacklustre demand is. If OPEC+ used their spare capacity prices would tank. Just look at what's happening to OPEC+ exports to prop this market up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1806399352979468620)  2024-06-27T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@The_RySci What you're describing has never happened in history: i.e. higher GDP per capita but no significant increase in oil consumption per capita. Unless you think EMs will stop growing or DM demand will fall apart oil demand should continue to inflect higher imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1807164662833623232)  2024-06-29T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ProfFlaneur @PrivatEquityGuy Stuff that's hated and people stop paying attention to. Oil during covid uranium coal etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1809066801654800619)  2024-07-05T03:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gugo907 "It's not fundamentals that move a stock it's liquidity". If investors are not willing to inject liquidity because they're too busy chasing Nvidia then oil companies have to do it themselves. I.e. use cash flow to buy back undervalued shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1809244066166522150)  2024-07-05T15:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@profplum99 Why would the median go up though Isn't it offset by the multiple contraction in smaller cap / value names"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1810749881885286883)  2024-07-09T18:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@3PeaksTrading The market structure / vol / option guys are super smart but I analysis paralysis from their posts. I like to keep things simple. We are in a narrative bull market for AI and a goldilocks soft landing for the econ. Why fight it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1811054261393924511)  2024-07-10T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TopSekret3450 Should we be doing some trades with IWM / RTY The research suggests that small cap vs. large cap gap should start closing with the start of rate cut cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1813212566241300489)  2024-07-16T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@marketplunger1 Dont need to read all that. Just feed it to Chat GPT and then ask any question"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1814749015759859796)  2024-07-20T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@NuggetCapital First he thought copper was going to moon now hes on to oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1814827708729196810)  2024-07-21T01:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PauloMacro You've been calling oil spike on geopolitics forever anyone who went long on your advice lost their shirt. Same with copper. Your uranium thread was followed by a 20% gain in the sector. Your SPUT pos has underperformed the 'insanely valued' equities. Track records forecasts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1816094142830710963)  2024-07-24T12:52Z [----] followers, 24.6K engagements


"It's always hard to time a bottom in #uranium I tend to trade around the edges and hold my core positions (60-80%) as a buy and hold. But below are some sentiment markers that suggest that if you buy now with a LT time frame you'll like do ok and possibly great:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1816857539759448558)  2024-07-26T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BeenThereCap 😂 Unfortunately spot price is what moves this market (even though it's 20% of uranium purchasing) and it's been stuck in the low-80s. As long as it doesn't move up sentiment will keep souring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1818084015502500249)  2024-07-30T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ProvenReserves CCJ is +412% over 5-yrs. pennies eh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1818748656972956140)  2024-07-31T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is epic $RIG $VAL $TDW Some confusion today regarding the $RIG news. Here is an incomplete but handy guide to help decipher if news is good or bad for $RIG. $NE $VAL $ODL.OL https://t.co/dyuMipIdmc Some confusion today regarding the $RIG news. Here is an incomplete but handy guide to help decipher if news is good or bad for $RIG. $NE $VAL $ODL.OL https://t.co/dyuMipIdmc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1818756258012577864)  2024-07-31T21:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So far uranium spot and LT px are holding firm in the face of anemic volumes poor sentiment carnage in the equities. Remember that buyers can defer and delay but they cannot avoid. Hang in there. #uranium $urnm $urnj $ura"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1819391633596547529)  2024-08-02T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TopSekret3450 VIX just dropped a couple pts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1819400636456489471)  2024-08-02T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$RIG is going bankrupt 1/ "Given our backlog and the visibility it provides to future cash flows along with a future reduction in CapEx as our new builds are now all out of yards and on contract we expect our unlevered FCF to continue incrementally increasing each qtr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1820495919508574470)  2024-08-05T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2/ .for the next several quarters which can enable us to delever our balance sheet and ultimately position us to design communicate and implement a sustainable strategy to make distributions""  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1820495921358291123)  2024-08-05T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Yellowbull11 Disagree. The weakness in uranium is due to a lack of spot market activity which is a result of US and EU utilities being adequately covered. This was a blind spot for the bulls including myself. If we had spot price trending up the pull back wouldn't nearly be this bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1821225512695476317)  2024-08-07T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Napalm_1_ @patrickadownes Any thoughts on when spot price will see some more action"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1821310916010578079)  2024-08-07T22:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@The_RySci Do you use bollinger bands at all I noticed that WTI seems to trade at a +/- [--] std dev range from 50dma. Would argue for $85 WTI target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1821598145798672570)  2024-08-08T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Where will #uranium spot price be by the end of the year $u.un $urnm $urnj $ccj $80 $80-90 $100+ $90-100 $80 $80-90 $100+ $90-100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1821965310876119174)  2024-08-09T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PraiseKek @toiletkingcap Good back and forth. I have to keep reminding myself that 2027/28 is 'tomorrow' in fuel cycle terms. Utes are pretty much always covered for next [--] years.doesn't mean they won't start contracting for those outer years now. Waiver process def slowed things down creating doubts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1822721479940665728)  2024-08-11T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CRUDEOIL231 How's production growth looking outside of US and OPEC+ generally Brazil Canada Guyana Any other bright spots for growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1823735062137069952)  2024-08-14T14:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@CorneliaLake 1/ is shorting SOFR (short term rate) futures. essentially a bet that rate cuts will be priced out of the market. 2/ is just going long USD against the Japanese Yen. You're betting the Yen will depreciate against the USD. Both have gone in the opp direction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1823754286670516440)  2024-08-14T16:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jmuelle99 @hchris999 I agree with Harry. They sold 410K lbs in H1. Even after accounting for 200K from Boss where did the rest of the lbs comes from Based on the period end inventory only way this makes sense is if they purchased 500K+ lbs during the H1 period"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1823863078905413971)  2024-08-14T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@clp923 Spot price isnt moving. Discount to NAV is increasing. Sput movement is more a reflection of sentiment than fundamentals imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1825624064872133008)  2024-08-19T20:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@quakes99 Waiting for spot price to start moving again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1825638819682496689)  2024-08-19T20:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@KennethShoretx @ctrlopenbracket Correct. Not only is the rate of growth slowing the wells are getting gassier. That's why the bears hoping for $50 oil keep getting rekt. I remember all the bearish takes coming into this year about 1mm b/d shale growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1825904498679644621)  2024-08-20T14:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PraiseKek @PauloMacro Fair. I'm betting there won't be one. Growth slow down yes. But there is no catalyst for a sharp contraction in the econ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1825993374005961032)  2024-08-20T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@wabuffo Could the increase in tax receipts be a function of tax bracket creep as opposed to income growth Have tax brackets been adjusted for inflation / wage growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1827006474389733539)  2024-08-23T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@toiletkingcap Just to be clear i'm not arguing that the chart is wrong. it's showing something about the relationship between the SPX and GLD which is a fact. I'm just arguing about the title of the chart and reference to 'collapse of the dollar'"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1827423939812855942)  2024-08-24T19:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@toiletkingcap @_triangulate_ @tradedollarnut @mfwarder @respeculator Where can I find the met coal price From what I understand there are different types / grades (low / high volatility etc.). Is there a standardized price index"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1828461458725695982)  2024-08-27T15:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@100xCompounding Great thread. Do you cover drillship market as well Any views on Transocean and Valaris"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1828994125884019194)  2024-08-29T03:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Because of its illiquid nature Outside of Cameco (which is not cheap) there isn't really an alternative to put real money to work in this sector. Even SPUT only trades $15mm / day. Why do all the research work when you can't deploy a decent chunk of capital to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1829527438302630001)  2024-08-30T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WarrenPies @Rory_Johnston So what if they increase supply That doesnt say anything about the put given Libya + compensation cuts from Iraq and Kazakh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1829898683824918812)  2024-08-31T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@tradeoilstocks Well they were obviously wrong but in this case I dont think an unwinding of cuts is the bearish catalyst the market thinks it is. Important to look at cuts unwind net of Iraq and Kazakhstan compensation plans. If they continue cheating however I think a px war is likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1830282241500475769)  2024-09-01T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PraiseKek Na. U equities will be down -99.99% in a broad market correction. That's why my technical analysis tells me at least"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1830377930989687204)  2024-09-01T22:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@derrick_dao - A nuclear reactor melt down /accident - Hidden excess inventory - China decides to use its inventory to manipulate market - Western utilities defer contracting as they're already covered [--] years out (which delays the inevitable)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1831729221024043034)  2024-09-05T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@U308RM The simple answer is when spot price moves up. Until spot price rises the market will continue to ignore bullish developments in uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1831775769783423063)  2024-09-05T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CRUDEOIL231 So this is further confirmation of weaker asian demand narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1832182951247020519)  2024-09-06T22:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap There is a decent amount of short interest in the name because of false bk concerns. As a result I think it could have a sharp move up from here on any +ve catalyst (say oil price rebound). That being said I would sell in the $5-6 range (bull story will take longer to play out)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1832475005923553606)  2024-09-07T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@saulgoo94536892 No one knows the answer to that. Markets are complex/ dynamic systems. Every bull market is different and cycles within the big cycle are unpredictable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1832583839958376691)  2024-09-08T00:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Wrote this around a month ago 👇. Since then this is what URNM vs. NVDA looks like. The uranium OGs know that AI demand is simply a cherry on top of the structural deficit story. Yet many in the market are convinced that uranium is simply a derivative of the AI trade #uranium 17/17 Ever noticed how uranium stock performance sometimes correlates with energy stocks copper or the broader CRB index / XME Yea me too. It's going to stay like this until it doesn't. Just be patient. 17/17 Ever noticed how uranium stock performance sometimes correlates with energy stocks copper or the broader CRB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1833167875353243890)  2024-09-09T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PraiseKek That was one of the first thoughts I had when the Russian ban was passed. telling utilities that they have until [----] to figure things out is like having your cake and eating it too. Why would your counterparty give you that time leverage to have a smooth transition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834672032354562450)  2024-09-13T19:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ALikhodedov @Rory_Johnston Yup. Libya outage was never really priced in to begin with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834676623637200915)  2024-09-13T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@The_RySci I think next week is a minefield of macro risk. If we get a weak retail sales print and then [--] bps market could throw a tantrum and push oil back to retest the recent lows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834689568555036824)  2024-09-13T20:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"4/ Is this reflected in producer / developer stock prices Most analyst reports Ive read value uranium stocks based on a NPV model assuming a certain px and discount rate not factoring in contracting strategy / structure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834973961811054800)  2024-09-14T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"7/ Cash flow streams with downside protection and with large utilities as counterparties can be borrowed against. As Rick Rule has pointed out this can give uranium miners access to funding that other commodity producers typically lack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834973968949768685)  2024-09-14T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"8/ As the sector remains mired in poor sentiment and folks obsess over when uranium stocks will bottom many are overlooking the potential LT value creation possibilities "  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1834973970950406309)  2024-09-14T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TradingTrotter @CRUDEOIL231 Libya outage was never priced in to begin with. Libya announcement is irrelevant. As for cracks that's more a function of new refinery capacity coming online vs. weak demand. Chinese imports are actually rebounding and they're refilling their SPR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1835705234795962372)  2024-09-16T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TradingTrotter @CRUDEOIL231 'Irrelevant' is the wrong word. I'm reflecting on the fact that we rallied maybe $1-1.5 on the Libya news initially and then sold off at least twice by $2+ on potential "resolution" of the outage. So the coming back of Libya bbls should be pxed in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1835706777263825318)  2024-09-16T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@toiletkingcap Be careful what you wish for could start moving down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1839305016102007279)  2024-09-26T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TinFormer_News Is the current dividend quarterly or semi annual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1843319351895830978)  2024-10-07T15:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TinFormer_News Just a margin loan facility from the central bank. if you're an insurance company hedge fund etc. you can use stocks ETFs and bonds in your portfolio as collateral to borrow from PBOC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1844179953119875498)  2024-10-10T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just a reminder today that if you follow hubris like this esp coming from someone who relies on technicals only you are likely to lose your shirt. 👇 Most of these stocks are now up +40-50% from that time. #uranium Another reminder that we've never gotten a single call in #uranium wrong. Ever. We're still the best in all of X and YouTube for timing entries/exits and predicting the sector. When it's time to buy I'll let you know. Don't worry that time will come. Another reminder that we've never gotten a single call in #uranium wrong. Ever. We're still the best in all of X and YouTube for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1846573386136211711)  2024-10-16T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AAGresearch I also like the ton of cash flow they're making from their gold production at the current gold price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1847052996728983678)  2024-10-17T23:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What a day what a week To all the macro furus TA 'pros' and whiners (who probably capitulated near the bottom) we give thanks for this opportunity It's time to cash in some chips. 🤑💵💰 Have a GREAT weekend. #uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1847371755142467990)  2024-10-18T20:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JekyllCapital Non stop bullish developments. yet crickets in the physical/spot market. Strangest commodity ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1849510986731909578)  2024-10-24T17:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MugsLuck @ICBarrett $RIG down again. You can add it to your bearish factors column. No M&A = bearish cause of price competition. M&A = still bearish because of dilution fears"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1849528930685870285)  2024-10-24T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting. Will Big Tech companies end up becoming power companies as well #uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1849877350915199274)  2024-10-25T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This 👇 Instead of accusing others of bad takes and manipulation better to just admit that you dont have an edge when it comes to geopolitics. #OOTT Life of an oil permabull: 1Geting hyped up in anticipation of an escalation in the Middle East that's surely going to send oil above $100 2Bitter disappointment and cries of manipulation when the world doesn't end and the market fades it the next week 3Return to step [--] https://t.co/YEz14YpNcp Life of an oil permabull: 1Geting hyped up in anticipation of an escalation in the Middle East that's surely going to send oil above $100 2Bitter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1850197437874409527)  2024-10-26T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BenniKim Amazing. I hiked the Tour Du Mont Blanc last year. One of the most memorable trips ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1850233804100620369)  2024-10-26T17:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ideahive @ToffCap EBITDA is not the best metric for $HME.V. It's trading at 10% FCF yield assuming [--] WTI I wouldn't call that screaming cheap unless you believe in higher oil prices. Also what's the next play after Atlee Buffalo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1850280445436637188)  2024-10-26T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@hchris999 Haven't looked at their cash burn but i'm guessing one more equity / bridge financing before Q1 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1851291192526270837)  2024-10-29T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@offshoremayor Thoughts on Jack up market BORR stock has been drilled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1851308173245681895)  2024-10-29T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PraiseKek @HoldcoMarkets @AtomicCorp This will need board approval right I'm speculating that the new board will have new priorities and this might go to the bottom of the pile. I don't know the inner workings of the DFC so happy to be corrected"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1851678732471169157)  2024-10-30T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MugsLuck -20% tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1851738686863331349)  2024-10-30T21:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Make sense . But in practice contract market is opaque and term price reporting is flawed / episodic so day to day spot is what drives the equities. Also spot and term divergence should eventually close via carry trades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852134301707465084)  2024-10-31T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ur_Energy Almost a month old news. Let's talk about your company: -What are you doing with the proceeds raised by diluting shareholders at $1.05/sh -How will you satisfy contractual commitments given your lowered prodxn guidance -How will you fix staffing issues $URG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852442913739051181)  2024-11-01T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"1/ Seeing a lot of concerned takes about Chinese EUP imports without putting the #s into context. 3mm lbs in [----] and 2mm lbs YTD vs. 45mm lbs #uranium burn rate in the US is significant but not a game-changer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852732930868568204)  2024-11-02T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"3/ However given the size of China's nuclear buildout they'll eventually need to buyback what they sell now probably at higher prices. So why do it Also why help the West given the current geopolitical setup / competition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852732933829710031)  2024-11-02T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7/ However this will eventually come back to bite them. Producers were left for dead in the last cycle and they're not going to capitulate now after decades of waiting to finally see the cycle turn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852732939487854941)  2024-11-02T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"8/ Timing the thesis remains impossible given the opacity and complexity of the market but I believe at some point over the next 12-24 mos utilities that are uncovered for 2028+ will have to come back to the table and we'll see contracting replacement rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852732940976820415)  2024-11-02T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@energyburrito Makes sense. There are also tariffs to consider . I think tariffs are pretty high on Chinese EUP. Under Trump might be even higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852835182862016901)  2024-11-02T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@quakes99 @rnsaffn Thanks John that's a valuable insight. We have to remind ourselves of how flawed the LT px reporting methodology is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1852928832057090211)  2024-11-03T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"👇AMZN's request for power from Susquehanna being rejected is not bearish #uranium; it likely means regulator doesn't want Big Tech hoarding limited baseload power capacity in a rising dmnd environment. The AI bros will have to build their own nuclear infrastructure. Looks like the Big [--] are going to have to Build some SMRs with the ruling over the weekend then cant relay on just making some deals with Utility company. More SMR s means a lot more Uranium Requirements over the next 5-10 years. A lot more. Looks like the Big [--] are going to have to Build some SMRs with the ruling over the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1853467019171209726)  2024-11-04T15:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GavMcCracken How much did you drink dude. Its not even 9pm going to be a long night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1853976781289660910)  2024-11-06T01:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"3/ [----] Guidance confirmed at top end of the range capex revised DOWN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1854955516688294095)  2024-11-08T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"4/ Monthly dividend of $0.005 / sh 11.3% yield. Dividend should be covered at $70 WTI assuming WCS doesn't blow out. So 11% cash yield + 50% potential capital return if market cap simply catches up to PDP value. What more do you want $GXE.TO #OOTT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1854955519062294624)  2024-11-08T18:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jsmian Chinese households stock market ownership is a lot lower vs US. They need to do more to prop up property prices increase wages and do direct fiscal transfers to prop up consumption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1855032795673796863)  2024-11-08T23:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@HFI_Research Hahahah @NuggetCapital just got schooled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1855442618890469780)  2024-11-10T02:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BeenThereCap Also should Paladin really be down 29% A 1mm reduction in guidance from 4mm to 3mm lbs can be made up for by a 33% increase in px which is not a very high bar given the nature of the deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1856379439166144876)  2024-11-12T16:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AAGresearch Hear you. $ERO copper is hurting me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1856455907946938625)  2024-11-12T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"1/ Just a reminder that the $81.50 LT #uranium px published by the price reporters is a fixed base-escalated price. It's also the lowest offer in a given period. A lot of people are celebrating contracts being signed at $115/pound but that is wrong. It means that the LT price is NOW higher compared to January when Spot hit $115. LT Price in the EOD January: $72 LT Price in the EOD October: $81.50 #uranium https://t.co/1aK0pcby9D A lot of people are celebrating contracts being signed at $115/pound but that is wrong. It means that the LT price is NOW higher compared to January when Spot hit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1857100020471759249)  2024-11-14T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2/ In today's mkt dominated by mkt-referenced contracts it's better to look at where floors and ceilings are being struck. Floors in the $70s ceilings $130. So producers have $5 of downside and $50+ of upside. Incredible cash flow protection and asymmetry. Not priced in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1857100022422052895)  2024-11-14T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A lot of skeptics (including myself) but size matters. As Druck says "it's not fundamentals that move stocks it's liquidity". Sometimes you just gotta keep things simple. #uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1858934778566697418)  2024-11-19T18:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@UnoMasReactor One persons stockpiling is another persons de-stocking. If a utility is buying years worth of EUP that means less EUP available for everyone else that's not covered. It also means U3O8 demand pulled forward to replenish EUP stocks. You can't make enriched uranium from thin air"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1859625450357608903)  2024-11-21T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MSTR market cap right now is around the same as the entire #uranium sector responsible for fueling 10% of the world's electricity and the coming nuclear renaissance. Early innings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1859722107468566660)  2024-11-21T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@100xCompounding Thanks. Will dig into it more. Feels like market already pricing in a lot of downside to earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1859755383197401156)  2024-11-22T00:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@100xCompounding 🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1859764508652339343)  2024-11-22T01:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"By YE '23 48% of US #uranium stocks were EUP the highest since 90s. [----] could be even higher The focus on EUP makes sense but doesn't mean everyone is 'covered'. If US is focused on EUP then sellers of EUP will focus on U3O8 + conversion to restock. The $ stops with uranium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1860435942416261387)  2024-11-23T21:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@HorribleDisgust Where else will they get the uranium from Kazatomprom Good luck with that 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861245431063175242)  2024-11-26T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@quakes99 I take your point that the spot market is dysfunctional but with the term market moving increasingly towards market-referenced contracts the spot price will determine the actual producer cash flows; it's not a good sign that it can be manipulated so easily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861490275991818672)  2024-11-26T19:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@quakes99 Those are good points. But if a U buyer has a large term delivery coming up they can easily manipulate the spot price by working with traders to dribble a few lbs here and there keeping spot depressed / near the floor price over [--] days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861493513864552864)  2024-11-26T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It's complete BS. You're telling me 85% of #uranium purchasing is going to be linked to a market price that can be moved +/- $1 on a few traders bouncing a few 100K lbs around like a volleyball game The incentive to manipulate is HUGE. Thank you for your explanation I couldn't believe the bullshit that the spot uranium price is irrelevant Thank you for your explanation I couldn't believe the bullshit that the spot uranium price is irrelevant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861544909724946488)  2024-11-26T22:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@rnsaffn Yup I read that and that's also kinda BS. Who cares about the mid-point being at $100 If spot is $77 and can be manipulated / suppressed to that level then that's what you'll get. The high ceiling is irrelevant if spot can't get there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861546052878278986)  2024-11-26T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rnsaffn I agree but how does that make spot irrelevant I'm not talking about direction here I'm talking about the comment i keep hearing that we should ignore spot price. It can be manipulated both lower and higher on very low volume"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861547124078321773)  2024-11-26T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rnsaffn No i'm not. My argument is against the claim that spot price is irrelevant. I agree with you on upside asymmetry. https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861547124078321773 @rnsaffn I agree but how does that make spot irrelevant I'm not talking about direction here I'm talking about the comment i keep hearing that we should ignore spot price. It can be manipulated both lower and higher on very low volume. https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861547124078321773 @rnsaffn I agree but how does that make spot irrelevant I'm not talking about direction here I'm talking about the comment i keep"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861548382860292164)  2024-11-26T23:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@toiletkingcap It's only irrelevant when it's going down. When it starts spiking it's very relevant and a reflection of the deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861551925461651558)  2024-11-26T23:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@brennan_redmond Because they have a bunch of legacy fixed price contracts and they need to buy in the spot market to meet those commitments. A spike in the spot market will actually hurt them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861594932873449656)  2024-11-27T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@100xCompounding Ok i'll take you up on this offer. I'm reading that shallow water break evens are $10-30/bbl; given oil is at $70 why so many rig suspensions The Aramco stuff I understand but PEMEX Will there be more Where will dayrates and utilization bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861603698264125444)  2024-11-27T02:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@_EnergyRealist Thanks for sharing. Is the $220mm free cash flow to equity or unlevered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861626527500194008)  2024-11-27T04:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Per Jander interview: 1/ not enough data points to make base escalated #uranium LT px relevant 2/term market very opaque; reported volumes are not accurate 3/ "surprised" that spot is $80; current spot px feels "artificial". In other words LT and spot both BS. Gluck 🤡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861791303622648286)  2024-11-27T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@3PeaksTrading Do you have an upside target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861840218803814881)  2024-11-27T18:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@piterloskot82 So are you saying it's not carrying any EUP Or are you saying Tenex is continuing deliveries in spite of the restrictions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861858017118998751)  2024-11-27T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@toiletkingcap @piterloskot82 Can we send a spy onboard the ship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1861862141231317327)  2024-11-27T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@leggett_john Everyone following the uranium space is well aware. Question is why are Western utes not showing more urgency To me there are a few possibilities: 1/ excess inventory 2/ downstream focus 3/ lack of clarity on Russian EUP 4/ complacency. Probably a combination of these"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862161172926955537)  2024-11-28T15:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@leggett_john So you're telling me that the fuel buyers who do this for a living are not following KAP's production issues China deals and Russian influence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862172310150508724)  2024-11-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@InconvenientTr5 @leggett_john They have spent the last year or so buying a ton of EUP from Russia + China. They are now well stocked allowing them to step back from the market and let spot drift lower. They are not entirely complacent / dumb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862173247141200250)  2024-11-28T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


""The parties also discussed further prospects for cooperation . in particular the prospect of expanding the transit of natural uranium through China to third countries." China is looking to sell more EUP #uranium globally. "Kazakhstan and China discussed expansion of natural uranium transit through China" 28.11.24 https://t.co/etmlSZ3JJs "Kazakhstan and China discussed expansion of natural uranium transit through China" 28.11.24 https://t.co/etmlSZ3JJs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862178304054157670)  2024-11-28T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@rnsaffn Hmm interesting. Who would be the logical customers for this China and India don't really get along. Maybe Japan and South Korea"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862181467771597243)  2024-11-28T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited Are you tracking the cost of this salad YoY What's the inflation rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862182625290473605)  2024-11-28T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StonksAndChill @JEUninformed Even if he wants to crater the px he can't. At $70 WTI US shale will be flat to slightly declining. 'Drill baby drill' is a nice catch phrase but you need $90+ oil to get producers excited about growth capex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862195141097754747)  2024-11-28T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Yellowbull11 There is no bifurcation yet. Tenex warnings have been a bluff Russian EUP is still coming to the US. KAP uranium if flowing east but it's being converted to EUP and coming back West. China is ramping up its EUP marketing efforts. The uranium market is global not bi furcated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862209361214386186)  2024-11-28T18:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JekyllCapital It's Twitter Art 99% of people reading your post DID take a flier; they don't invest for a living. If a prominent uranium investor like yourself expresses doubt on a stock they own of course they'll feel anxious / angry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862216208981926156)  2024-11-28T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PurpleDrink_LLC Nice job. You've previously posted some thoughts on commodities like uranium oil and met coal names like $HCC but don't have any of them in your portfolio. Is that because you don't see a good r/r there are or just generally curious about those sectors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/variance_swap/status/1862572844762190173)  2024-11-29T19:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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