#  @vachelliaequity Vachellia Equity Research Vachellia Equity Research posts on X about market, $nvo, we are, this is the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2009333757283848192/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +54% - [--] Month [-----] +4,912% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2009333757283848192/posts_active)  ### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2009333757283848192/followers)  - [--] Week [--] +41% - [--] Month [--] +118% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2009333757283848192/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [countries](/list/countries) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [market](/topic/market), [$nvo](/topic/$nvo), [we are](/topic/we-are), [this is](/topic/this-is), [business](/topic/business), [nvo](/topic/nvo), [in the](/topic/in-the), [if you](/topic/if-you), [$spy](/topic/$spy), [beat](/topic/beat) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@kraneshares](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/$eth) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)](/topic/meta-platforms) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@KraneShares 15x PE on $MCHI for AI trade exposure is a high-value play" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2010799983331852417) 2026-01-12T19:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The valuation gap between US equities (23x forward PE) relative to European equities (14x forward PE) is currently wider than anytime over the past [--] decades. There is arguably good reason for this: (1) the US market has carried global equity returns since the GFC (2008-2009) and (2) the European market is composed of Financials and Industrials which typically trade at lower multiples than Tech firms which dominate the US market at its core. As contrarians our view is that this valuation gap cannot be maintained indefinitely. This will result in US valuations normalizing to the downside" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2011469736417132713) 2026-01-14T16:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The US market is starting to see a nice rotation out of large-cap growth (e.g. S&P500) and into value. $SCHD being up +4% on the week and reclaiming $29 is a clear sign investors are starting to look for defensiveness for their portfolios. If this pattern sustains this will be a healthy rotation for the market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011684566931472747 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011684566931472747" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2011684566931472747) 2026-01-15T06:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Alibaba are prioritizing developing Qwen as moving beyond "chat-based conversations" into "AI task-exectuion." $BABA are clearly prioritizing product development and usability rather than simple use metrics and dare we say profitability at least in the short term. $BABA is such an incredible business. $BABA : Alibabas Qwen President: Major Version Updates Planned Every Quarter Prioritizes Ecosystem Integration Over Monetization. https://t.co/stbvi3W3JK $BABA : Alibabas Qwen President: Major Version Updates Planned Every Quarter Prioritizes Ecosystem Integration Over Monetization." [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2012382546533773699) 2026-01-17T04:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "We are cautiously selective about tech/AI exposure. Our primary thesis and outlook is that CapEx buildouts will not materialise into widescale excess revenue growth and margin expansion for MANY of these companies. There will be a few selective winners who realize the majority of the benefits. As companies begin to transition from tech build outs and development to deployment and monetization we believe that this is where the AI trade will begin to breakdown as commensurate growth/margins don't follow suit. We are not anti tech but rather selective and cautious about our exposure. "Recently" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2012783966483370374) 2026-01-18T07:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "As Europe and Mercosur sign a historic trade agreement and China-Canada do the same we are starting to see some of the product of the US's aggressive political policies since President Trump returned to office. We are optimistic that additional trade deals and agreements will continue to be signed and adopted in the international markets going into [----]. BREAKING: The European Union and the Mercosur bloc sign a major deal to create one of world's biggest free trade zones after [--] years of talks. https://t.co/2eK9klZzoL BREAKING: The European Union and the Mercosur bloc sign a major deal to" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2012785089986330703) 2026-01-18T07:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The new world order is that there is an investable universe outside of the US. We love to see it. 🏋♂ It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order the domestic political order and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I've described It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order the domestic political order and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2013818185942704608) 2026-01-21T03:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Sir Christopher Hohn is one of our favorite "super investors". Look at his TCI Fund - boring predictable wide-moat mono/duopolistic companies with excellent management teams and cash machines. Good investing is not hype. Good investing is not speculation" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2013819063428866249) 2026-01-21T03:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Danish Pension Fund AKADEMIKERPENSION announce they will be exiting US Treasuries over credit risk fears under the Trump administration - Bloomberg. This is a sign of intent. The volume or AUM loss is not all that important. Don't be misled" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2013830238040433052) 2026-01-21T04:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$BABA is an incredible company that offers AI/tech exposure without paying premium valuations for US Tech. The international market big place with some incredible businesses. Qwen Hits 1B Downloads Alibaba Groups Qwen AI models reached [--] billion downloads on Hugging Face averaging [---] million per day according to the latest data. Qwen has overtaken Meta Platforms Inc.s Llama to rank as the worlds most downloaded open-source AI model. https://t.co/hNNyIkOQs5 Qwen Hits 1B Downloads Alibaba Groups Qwen AI models reached [--] billion downloads on Hugging Face averaging [---] million per day according" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2013832106300833806) 2026-01-21T04:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Silver is in a bubble. Don't chase bubbles if you missed the run up. Silver is now the 2ND most valuable asset (by MC) in the World behind Gold now. Majority of financial advisors might be clueless about what is going on and why. And to think the majority of the population doesn't have proper allocation to either metal. https://t.co/RsjfsR7uXt Silver is now the 2ND most valuable asset (by MC) in the World behind Gold now. Majority of financial advisors might be clueless about what is going on and why. And to think the majority of the population doesn't have proper allocation to either metal." [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2013832809840787753) 2026-01-21T04:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "One of our covered companies Novo Nordisk $NVO report Q4 [----] results this week (4 Feb). [----] was an incredibly tough year for $NVO with management restructuring multiple guidance cuts intensified competition from Eli Lilly $LLY and others. However oral versions of key GLP-1 medications getting approved and massive indication expansions across GLP-1's globally are a huge headwind. We don't believe the coast is clear for 2026/2027 but $NVO are positioning effectively for the long-term and the impending patent cliff shock ahead across the pharma industry (2028-2031)." [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2017818442011697183) 2026-02-01T04:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a muted guidance outlook. Doustdar (new CEO) is very conservative and has already outlined how they expect a difficult [----] ahead. The guidance will likely be poorly received by the market and $NVO will play the "underpromise overdeliver" game. Market weakness back towards $50 (ADR) is an interesting prospect for long-term holders. What are you expecting from $NVO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018582483386745154) 2026-02-03T07:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "There were approximately 4-6 trading days over the last [--] years where SPY [---] WMA. You would have outperformed a simple DCA approach by about 5% IRR though despite sitting in cash for [--] years. This assumes you had $1000 to invest [--] years ago and either deployed equally on all trading days (DCA) or equally across days SPY [---] wma Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018638672837444052) 2026-02-03T10:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO ADR currently -14% on the day after the poor guidance for revenue and operating profit declines (-5% to -13%) for [----]. As expected. We see possible further downside from here potentially retesting the $46-$48 lows from a few weeks ago. Lots of $NVO bear cases were liquidated today. The final straw for holders who don't want to deal with the volatility + terrible sentiment. Perfectly understandable. $NVO is not for everyone. $NVO is for us though. We love high-quality businesses that are hated by the market moats trading in the bargain bin. 🙏 $NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018749639634407653) 2026-02-03T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO has significant structural headwinds over the short-to-medium term but I believe the long-term thesis is still in play. Yes loss of exclusivity most favored nations and GLP-1 competition are huge drags on revenue and profit (as evidenced by the terrible [----] guidance yesterday). However the drug pipeline is strong the moat is still intact and GLP-1s are not a zero sum game and a huge TAM runway over the next 5-10 years. But damn $NVO needs a new PR team. They aren't even trying to soften the blows of lowered guidance and poor outlooks over the last [--] quarters." [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2018929446024048850) 2026-02-04T06:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Market sentiment around $NVO is terrible right now. This is understandable - management has cut guidance multiple times over [----] and [----] guidance was terrible (-5 to -13% declines in sales and operating profit). However management are not in a position to cut guidance again. They have to guide for the worst-case scenario for [----]. They need time to answer the following questions in 2026: (1) How will the Wegovy pill uptake go Initial prescription uptake rates from early [----] are good. (2) How will $LLY perform in [----] Will they continue to take market share $LLY expect their own pill in Q2" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019313623194099911) 2026-02-05T07:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$SPGI's HUGE moat is data not its codebase. Claude is not a threat to S&P Global. Don't be fooled by the selloff last week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020730709141238223) 2026-02-09T05:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$HIMS is not a Warren Buffet company. They don't have a moat. Management is not optimal. They hardly have a product offering. $1 billion in cash $1 billion in convertibles Just reached GAAP profitability This is not bad for a young growing company. However this is not the balance sheet of a fortress company like $NVO or $LLY. Anything $HIMS do have is existentially threatened by a single regulatory change. Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021866422838689795) 2026-02-12T08:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "We can apply the same logic to value S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) after its recent 30% pullback. We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022185048644993232) 2026-02-13T05:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Great post as always Dimitry. 👍 Love to see the focus on fundamentals and let price follow instead of the usual hype-based investing posts on here. We are heavily underweight and selective in tech but these are incredible companies and I would be quite confident these [--] companies outperform the market over the next [--] years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022523616844202344 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022523616844202344" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2022523616844202344) 2026-02-14T04:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Is S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) offering value after its recent 30% pullback We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in a treasury). So if" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022185589894779088) 2026-02-13T05:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Excellent breakdown on $ADBE here from Drew. 👇 $ADBE are suffering in the SaaS apocalypse sell-off but the fundamentals of the company remain incredible. There could definitely be further downside and SaaS will likely be very volatile for the next few years. $ADBE is a high-quality business. https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022565337066074254) 2026-02-14T06:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I will happily pay 54x for a 22% 10-yr CAGR ( $COST ). 🫡 Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022677702055203274) 2026-02-14T14:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Fantastic write-up Daniel. 👌 The way you approach understanding the business and business model is incredible. We are learning a huge amount about how to approach this component in our own research from you. You clearly out in an incredible amount of thought and research into this work. Just an FYI on the valuation component and this should by no means detract from your excellent piece or materially change the valuation but there is a significant amount of deal-related amortization from the IHS merger that probably should be accounted for in the valuation. Our valuation model is closely" [X Link](https://x.com/vachelliaequity/status/2022943648560607400) 2026-02-15T07:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Another incredible piece of research from Daniel. Check it out. 👇 https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022943786951942458) 2026-02-15T07:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Another incredible piece of research from Daniel. Check it out. 👇 https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022943786951942458) 2026-02-15T07:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "S&P Global Deep Dive and Valuation The Company Behind the Market S&P Global is best known for the S&P [---] index and if you are a bit more well-versed in the financial sector you probably know its Ratings business too. But the http://x.com/i/article/2022460266751934464 http://x.com/i/article/2022460266751934464" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022662918383255702) 2026-02-14T13:23Z 117.5K followers, 112.8K engagements "I will happily pay 54x for a 22% 10-yr CAGR ( $COST ). 🫡 Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022677702055203274) 2026-02-14T14:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022262647094169721) 2026-02-13T10:52Z [----] followers, 32.1K engagements "The fact HR obviously chose not to tell him upfront is just incredibly awful. Sounds like this employee needs a new job and will be better off for it. An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration. I approved his 'Global Mobility' application immediately. He was thrilled to trade his apartment for An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022608747407757454) 2026-02-14T09:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration. I approved his 'Global Mobility' application immediately. He was thrilled to trade his apartment for a villa with a pool. He signed the location addendum without reading the appendix on 'Purchasing Power Parity.' When his first paycheck landed he called me in a panic. It was for $650. I explained that under our 'Geographic Equity Model' salaries are algorithmically adjusted to the local cost of living of the employee's" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022332617362747497) 2026-02-13T15:30Z 38.5K followers, 3.4M engagements "Leaving Citadel & launching a $1B AI hedge fund how Renee Yao built NeoIvy Capital from scratch Renee Yao walked away from two of the most elite hedge funds on Wall Street Citadel & Millennium and built a quant fund on a fundamentally different model: modern AI instead of human-powered alpha generation. The result: $1B+ in regulatory AUM uncorrelated returns through COVID & a fund Business Insider named one of the top transforming investing in North America. We cover: - Why large multi-manager quant firms rely on massive global researcher headcounts & why Renee saw that as a model worth" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022293429472878727) 2026-02-13T12:55Z [----] followers, 93.4K engagements "Excellent breakdown on $ADBE here from Drew. 👇 $ADBE are suffering in the SaaS apocalypse sell-off but the fundamentals of the company remain incredible. There could definitely be further downside and SaaS will likely be very volatile for the next few years. $ADBE is a high-quality business. https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022565337066074254) 2026-02-14T06:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Adobe Stock Breakdown: Dying Business or Generational Opportunity Can a stock drop 50% for seemingly no reason What if that sell-off happened while revenue and profits kept increasing and the broader market was up Usually when there is a prolonged sell-off of http://x.com/i/article/2021946014790209536 http://x.com/i/article/2021946014790209536" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022326933141196900) 2026-02-13T15:08Z [----] followers, 135.5K engagements "Dimitry putting out their usual top-quality content. Check it out. 👇 These are [--] of the best companies in the world. Any long-term investor would do well to focus their research into these companies particularly given the SaaS selloff currently occurring which is offering up many of these companies at valuations not seen for 10+ years ( $INTU ). 👌 Stock prices vs operating cash flow 💵 Periods with high volatility as weve recently seen often create meaningful gaps between stock price and business fundamentals Heres a thread of [--] quality stocks with notable discrepancies worth examining" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022524346950955022) 2026-02-14T04:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Stock prices vs operating cash flow 💵 Periods with high volatility as weve recently seen often create meaningful gaps between stock price and business fundamentals Heres a thread of [--] quality stocks with notable discrepancies worth examining further🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022028312617660616) 2026-02-12T19:21Z 18.9K followers, 15.3K engagements "The Dutch government are over their skis here. This is effectively a smash-and-grab. BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds. BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022522805284220941) 2026-02-14T04:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022423938656317614) 2026-02-13T21:33Z 3.1M followers, 4.4M engagements "Is S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) offering value after its recent 30% pullback We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in a treasury). So if" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022185589894779088) 2026-02-13T05:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "We can apply the same logic to value S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) after its recent 30% pullback. We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022185048644993232) 2026-02-13T05:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This is the most important chart you'll see today. It shows the U.S. Equity Risk Premium (ERP) more specifically: S&P [---] earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield. In simple terms it answers one critical question: 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021613620807786654) 2026-02-11T15:53Z 102.8K followers, 116.7K engagements "$HIMS is not a Warren Buffet company. They don't have a moat. Management is not optimal. They hardly have a product offering. $1 billion in cash $1 billion in convertibles Just reached GAAP profitability This is not bad for a young growing company. However this is not the balance sheet of a fortress company like $NVO or $LLY. Anything $HIMS do have is existentially threatened by a single regulatory change. Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021866422838689795) 2026-02-12T08:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat $HIMS in court Hims will have to stop selling compounded GLP-1's - $HIMS stock trading at a RSI reading of [--] is a nothing burger. - $HIMS A company that wants to challenge 'big pharma' will not stop and slow down You do you. 🤝🏼 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021553269374333279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021553269374333279" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021553269374333279) 2026-02-11T11:53Z 22.5K followers, 83.4K engagements "$SPGI's HUGE moat is data not its codebase. Claude is not a threat to S&P Global. Don't be fooled by the selloff last week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020730709141238223) 2026-02-09T05:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "This is not a full DCF model. Let's not get hasty - I see nonsense LLM financial models every single day. It is super easy to whip something up. Is it worthwhile I haven't seen any evidence that any of these LLM-generated models are worth a single cent. There is no intuition. No insight. No value yet. A purpose-built LLM that has been trained by investment bankers and expert financial modelers may be able to produce a worthwhile output (probably not even close to end product as of yet). Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020724943986540997) 2026-02-09T05:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by answering [--] questions. A lot of tasks are becoming pure commodities if you dont keep up youre done" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020397052853883042) 2026-02-08T07:19Z 16.3K followers, 697.9K engagements "Absolute "bloodbath" in the markets right now. Up +7% over the last [--] months. 😒 There is still a lot of room to the downside in the short-term. We see a momentary bounce over the next few weeks before another major leg down potentially retesting $480. This would be very healthy for the market" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019642323672400236) 2026-02-06T05:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "FDA commissioner says the institution will take "swift action" against copycat drug makers. Advantage $NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019640468833808887) 2026-02-06T05:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Market sentiment around $NVO is terrible right now. This is understandable - management has cut guidance multiple times over [----] and [----] guidance was terrible (-5 to -13% declines in sales and operating profit). However management are not in a position to cut guidance again. They have to guide for the worst-case scenario for [----]. They need time to answer the following questions in 2026: (1) How will the Wegovy pill uptake go Initial prescription uptake rates from early [----] are good. (2) How will $LLY perform in [----] Will they continue to take market share $LLY expect their own pill in Q2" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019313623194099911) 2026-02-05T07:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO has significant structural headwinds over the short-to-medium term but I believe the long-term thesis is still in play. Yes loss of exclusivity most favored nations and GLP-1 competition are huge drags on revenue and profit (as evidenced by the terrible [----] guidance yesterday). However the drug pipeline is strong the moat is still intact and GLP-1s are not a zero sum game and a huge TAM runway over the next 5-10 years. But damn $NVO needs a new PR team. They aren't even trying to soften the blows of lowered guidance and poor outlooks over the last [--] quarters" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018959384760512958) 2026-02-04T08:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO ADR currently -14% on the day after the poor guidance for revenue and operating profit declines (-5% to -13%) for [----]. As expected. We see possible further downside from here potentially retesting the $46-$48 lows from a few weeks ago. Lots of $NVO bear cases were liquidated today. The final straw for holders who don't want to deal with the volatility + terrible sentiment. Perfectly understandable. $NVO is not for everyone. $NVO is for us though. We love high-quality businesses that are hated by the market moats trading in the bargain bin. 🙏 $NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018749639634407653) 2026-02-03T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a muted guidance outlook. Doustdar (new CEO) is very conservative and has already outlined how they expect a difficult [----] ahead. The guidance will likely be poorly received by the market and $NVO will play the "underpromise overdeliver" game. Market weakness back towards $50 (ADR) is an interesting prospect for long-term holders. What are you expecting from $NVO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018582483386745154) 2026-02-03T07:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Nice call. 👌 I think we could see further downside from here (potentially sub $50 ADR) and then the recovery $60" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018748373793169788) 2026-02-03T18:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "There were approximately 4-6 trading days over the last [--] years where SPY [---] WMA. You would have outperformed a simple DCA approach by about 5% IRR though despite sitting in cash for [--] years. This assumes you had $1000 to invest [--] years ago and either deployed equally on all trading days (DCA) or equally across days SPY [---] wma Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018638672837444052) 2026-02-03T10:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018358644723626145) 2026-02-02T16:19Z 253.1K followers, 50.4K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@vachelliaequity Vachellia Equity Research
Vachellia Equity Research posts on X about market, $nvo, we are, this is the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +54%
- [--] Month [-----] +4,912%
Mentions: [--] #
Followers: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +41%
- [--] Month [--] +118%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance technology brands cryptocurrencies currencies travel destinations countries automotive brands
Social topic influence market, $nvo, we are, this is, business, nvo, in the, if you, $spy, beat
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kraneshares
Top assets mentioned Novo-Nordisk (NVO) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Alibaba Group (BABA) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@KraneShares 15x PE on $MCHI for AI trade exposure is a high-value play"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The valuation gap between US equities (23x forward PE) relative to European equities (14x forward PE) is currently wider than anytime over the past [--] decades. There is arguably good reason for this: (1) the US market has carried global equity returns since the GFC (2008-2009) and (2) the European market is composed of Financials and Industrials which typically trade at lower multiples than Tech firms which dominate the US market at its core. As contrarians our view is that this valuation gap cannot be maintained indefinitely. This will result in US valuations normalizing to the downside"
X Link 2026-01-14T16:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The US market is starting to see a nice rotation out of large-cap growth (e.g. S&P500) and into value. $SCHD being up +4% on the week and reclaiming $29 is a clear sign investors are starting to look for defensiveness for their portfolios. If this pattern sustains this will be a healthy rotation for the market. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011684566931472747 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011684566931472747"
X Link 2026-01-15T06:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Alibaba are prioritizing developing Qwen as moving beyond "chat-based conversations" into "AI task-exectuion." $BABA are clearly prioritizing product development and usability rather than simple use metrics and dare we say profitability at least in the short term. $BABA is such an incredible business. $BABA : Alibabas Qwen President: Major Version Updates Planned Every Quarter Prioritizes Ecosystem Integration Over Monetization. https://t.co/stbvi3W3JK $BABA : Alibabas Qwen President: Major Version Updates Planned Every Quarter Prioritizes Ecosystem Integration Over Monetization."
X Link 2026-01-17T04:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"We are cautiously selective about tech/AI exposure. Our primary thesis and outlook is that CapEx buildouts will not materialise into widescale excess revenue growth and margin expansion for MANY of these companies. There will be a few selective winners who realize the majority of the benefits. As companies begin to transition from tech build outs and development to deployment and monetization we believe that this is where the AI trade will begin to breakdown as commensurate growth/margins don't follow suit. We are not anti tech but rather selective and cautious about our exposure. "Recently"
X Link 2026-01-18T07:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"As Europe and Mercosur sign a historic trade agreement and China-Canada do the same we are starting to see some of the product of the US's aggressive political policies since President Trump returned to office. We are optimistic that additional trade deals and agreements will continue to be signed and adopted in the international markets going into [----]. BREAKING: The European Union and the Mercosur bloc sign a major deal to create one of world's biggest free trade zones after [--] years of talks. https://t.co/2eK9klZzoL BREAKING: The European Union and the Mercosur bloc sign a major deal to"
X Link 2026-01-18T07:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The new world order is that there is an investable universe outside of the US. We love to see it. 🏋♂ It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order the domestic political order and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I've described It's now happening. The existing fiat monetary order the domestic political order and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle"
X Link 2026-01-21T03:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Sir Christopher Hohn is one of our favorite "super investors". Look at his TCI Fund - boring predictable wide-moat mono/duopolistic companies with excellent management teams and cash machines. Good investing is not hype. Good investing is not speculation"
X Link 2026-01-21T03:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Danish Pension Fund AKADEMIKERPENSION announce they will be exiting US Treasuries over credit risk fears under the Trump administration - Bloomberg. This is a sign of intent. The volume or AUM loss is not all that important. Don't be misled"
X Link 2026-01-21T04:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$BABA is an incredible company that offers AI/tech exposure without paying premium valuations for US Tech. The international market big place with some incredible businesses. Qwen Hits 1B Downloads Alibaba Groups Qwen AI models reached [--] billion downloads on Hugging Face averaging [---] million per day according to the latest data. Qwen has overtaken Meta Platforms Inc.s Llama to rank as the worlds most downloaded open-source AI model. https://t.co/hNNyIkOQs5 Qwen Hits 1B Downloads Alibaba Groups Qwen AI models reached [--] billion downloads on Hugging Face averaging [---] million per day according"
X Link 2026-01-21T04:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Silver is in a bubble. Don't chase bubbles if you missed the run up. Silver is now the 2ND most valuable asset (by MC) in the World behind Gold now. Majority of financial advisors might be clueless about what is going on and why. And to think the majority of the population doesn't have proper allocation to either metal. https://t.co/RsjfsR7uXt Silver is now the 2ND most valuable asset (by MC) in the World behind Gold now. Majority of financial advisors might be clueless about what is going on and why. And to think the majority of the population doesn't have proper allocation to either metal."
X Link 2026-01-21T04:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"One of our covered companies Novo Nordisk $NVO report Q4 [----] results this week (4 Feb). [----] was an incredibly tough year for $NVO with management restructuring multiple guidance cuts intensified competition from Eli Lilly $LLY and others. However oral versions of key GLP-1 medications getting approved and massive indication expansions across GLP-1's globally are a huge headwind. We don't believe the coast is clear for 2026/2027 but $NVO are positioning effectively for the long-term and the impending patent cliff shock ahead across the pharma industry (2028-2031)."
X Link 2026-02-01T04:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a muted guidance outlook. Doustdar (new CEO) is very conservative and has already outlined how they expect a difficult [----] ahead. The guidance will likely be poorly received by the market and $NVO will play the "underpromise overdeliver" game. Market weakness back towards $50 (ADR) is an interesting prospect for long-term holders. What are you expecting from $NVO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154"
X Link 2026-02-03T07:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"There were approximately 4-6 trading days over the last [--] years where SPY [---] WMA. You would have outperformed a simple DCA approach by about 5% IRR though despite sitting in cash for [--] years. This assumes you had $1000 to invest [--] years ago and either deployed equally on all trading days (DCA) or equally across days SPY [---] wma Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO ADR currently -14% on the day after the poor guidance for revenue and operating profit declines (-5% to -13%) for [----]. As expected. We see possible further downside from here potentially retesting the $46-$48 lows from a few weeks ago. Lots of $NVO bear cases were liquidated today. The final straw for holders who don't want to deal with the volatility + terrible sentiment. Perfectly understandable. $NVO is not for everyone. $NVO is for us though. We love high-quality businesses that are hated by the market moats trading in the bargain bin. 🙏 $NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO has significant structural headwinds over the short-to-medium term but I believe the long-term thesis is still in play. Yes loss of exclusivity most favored nations and GLP-1 competition are huge drags on revenue and profit (as evidenced by the terrible [----] guidance yesterday). However the drug pipeline is strong the moat is still intact and GLP-1s are not a zero sum game and a huge TAM runway over the next 5-10 years. But damn $NVO needs a new PR team. They aren't even trying to soften the blows of lowered guidance and poor outlooks over the last [--] quarters."
X Link 2026-02-04T06:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Market sentiment around $NVO is terrible right now. This is understandable - management has cut guidance multiple times over [----] and [----] guidance was terrible (-5 to -13% declines in sales and operating profit). However management are not in a position to cut guidance again. They have to guide for the worst-case scenario for [----]. They need time to answer the following questions in 2026: (1) How will the Wegovy pill uptake go Initial prescription uptake rates from early [----] are good. (2) How will $LLY perform in [----] Will they continue to take market share $LLY expect their own pill in Q2"
X Link 2026-02-05T07:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$SPGI's HUGE moat is data not its codebase. Claude is not a threat to S&P Global. Don't be fooled by the selloff last week"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$HIMS is not a Warren Buffet company. They don't have a moat. Management is not optimal. They hardly have a product offering. $1 billion in cash $1 billion in convertibles Just reached GAAP profitability This is not bad for a young growing company. However this is not the balance sheet of a fortress company like $NVO or $LLY. Anything $HIMS do have is existentially threatened by a single regulatory change. Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"We can apply the same logic to value S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) after its recent 30% pullback. We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Great post as always Dimitry. 👍 Love to see the focus on fundamentals and let price follow instead of the usual hype-based investing posts on here. We are heavily underweight and selective in tech but these are incredible companies and I would be quite confident these [--] companies outperform the market over the next [--] years. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022523616844202344 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022523616844202344"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Is S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) offering value after its recent 30% pullback We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in a treasury). So if"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Excellent breakdown on $ADBE here from Drew. 👇 $ADBE are suffering in the SaaS apocalypse sell-off but the fundamentals of the company remain incredible. There could definitely be further downside and SaaS will likely be very volatile for the next few years. $ADBE is a high-quality business. https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I will happily pay 54x for a 22% 10-yr CAGR ( $COST ). 🫡 Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Fantastic write-up Daniel. 👌 The way you approach understanding the business and business model is incredible. We are learning a huge amount about how to approach this component in our own research from you. You clearly out in an incredible amount of thought and research into this work. Just an FYI on the valuation component and this should by no means detract from your excellent piece or materially change the valuation but there is a significant amount of deal-related amortization from the IHS merger that probably should be accounted for in the valuation. Our valuation model is closely"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Another incredible piece of research from Daniel. Check it out. 👇 https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Another incredible piece of research from Daniel. Check it out. 👇 https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz https://t.co/AgjqQo91Pz"
X Link 2026-02-15T07:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"S&P Global Deep Dive and Valuation The Company Behind the Market S&P Global is best known for the S&P [---] index and if you are a bit more well-versed in the financial sector you probably know its Ratings business too. But the http://x.com/i/article/2022460266751934464 http://x.com/i/article/2022460266751934464"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:23Z 117.5K followers, 112.8K engagements
"I will happily pay 54x for a 22% 10-yr CAGR ( $COST ). 🫡 Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings https://t.co/eiiE3zHroO"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Why buy profitable high-growth high-beta companies when you can buy Costco at 54x earnings"
X Link 2026-02-13T10:52Z [----] followers, 32.1K engagements
"The fact HR obviously chose not to tell him upfront is just incredibly awful. Sounds like this employee needs a new job and will be better off for it. An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration. I approved his 'Global Mobility' application immediately. He was thrilled to trade his apartment for An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration."
X Link 2026-02-14T09:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"An employee requested to work remotely from Bali for six months. He wanted to live the 'digital nomad' lifestyle. I told him absolutely. We believe in work-life integration. I approved his 'Global Mobility' application immediately. He was thrilled to trade his apartment for a villa with a pool. He signed the location addendum without reading the appendix on 'Purchasing Power Parity.' When his first paycheck landed he called me in a panic. It was for $650. I explained that under our 'Geographic Equity Model' salaries are algorithmically adjusted to the local cost of living of the employee's"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:30Z 38.5K followers, 3.4M engagements
"Leaving Citadel & launching a $1B AI hedge fund how Renee Yao built NeoIvy Capital from scratch Renee Yao walked away from two of the most elite hedge funds on Wall Street Citadel & Millennium and built a quant fund on a fundamentally different model: modern AI instead of human-powered alpha generation. The result: $1B+ in regulatory AUM uncorrelated returns through COVID & a fund Business Insider named one of the top transforming investing in North America. We cover: - Why large multi-manager quant firms rely on massive global researcher headcounts & why Renee saw that as a model worth"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:55Z [----] followers, 93.4K engagements
"Excellent breakdown on $ADBE here from Drew. 👇 $ADBE are suffering in the SaaS apocalypse sell-off but the fundamentals of the company remain incredible. There could definitely be further downside and SaaS will likely be very volatile for the next few years. $ADBE is a high-quality business. https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx https://t.co/Yz8nokyopx"
X Link 2026-02-14T06:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Adobe Stock Breakdown: Dying Business or Generational Opportunity Can a stock drop 50% for seemingly no reason What if that sell-off happened while revenue and profits kept increasing and the broader market was up Usually when there is a prolonged sell-off of http://x.com/i/article/2021946014790209536 http://x.com/i/article/2021946014790209536"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:08Z [----] followers, 135.5K engagements
"Dimitry putting out their usual top-quality content. Check it out. 👇 These are [--] of the best companies in the world. Any long-term investor would do well to focus their research into these companies particularly given the SaaS selloff currently occurring which is offering up many of these companies at valuations not seen for 10+ years ( $INTU ). 👌 Stock prices vs operating cash flow 💵 Periods with high volatility as weve recently seen often create meaningful gaps between stock price and business fundamentals Heres a thread of [--] quality stocks with notable discrepancies worth examining"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Stock prices vs operating cash flow 💵 Periods with high volatility as weve recently seen often create meaningful gaps between stock price and business fundamentals Heres a thread of [--] quality stocks with notable discrepancies worth examining further🧵"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:21Z 18.9K followers, 15.3K engagements
"The Dutch government are over their skis here. This is effectively a smash-and-grab. BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds. BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds"
X Link 2026-02-14T04:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"BREAKING: Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks crypto and bonds"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:33Z 3.1M followers, 4.4M engagements
"Is S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) offering value after its recent 30% pullback We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in a treasury). So if"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"We can apply the same logic to value S&P Global Inc. ($SPGI) after its recent 30% pullback. We can apply CAPM to determine what we should expect as a risk premium: 10-yr treasury yield = 4.2% $SPGI beta [---] (slightly more volatile than $SPY) Market risk premium 5% Therefore our total required return = 4.2% + 5% = 9.2% However at a 19x PE the market is only currently offering us an earnings yield of 1/19 = 5.26%. There is a massive divergence here: - Theoreticallt you need a 5.5% premium for this risk. - You are only getting a 1.06% premium for taking on the risk (relative to parking money in"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This is the most important chart you'll see today. It shows the U.S. Equity Risk Premium (ERP) more specifically: S&P [---] earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield. In simple terms it answers one critical question: 👇"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:53Z 102.8K followers, 116.7K engagements
"$HIMS is not a Warren Buffet company. They don't have a moat. Management is not optimal. They hardly have a product offering. $1 billion in cash $1 billion in convertibles Just reached GAAP profitability This is not bad for a young growing company. However this is not the balance sheet of a fortress company like $NVO or $LLY. Anything $HIMS do have is existentially threatened by a single regulatory change. Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat"
X Link 2026-02-12T08:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Not buying $HIMS at $17 a share means you think the following: - Warren buffets famous quote "Buy when others are fearful sell when others are greedy" is a load of rubbish - $NVO will beat $HIMS in court Hims will have to stop selling compounded GLP-1's - $HIMS stock trading at a RSI reading of [--] is a nothing burger. - $HIMS A company that wants to challenge 'big pharma' will not stop and slow down You do you. 🤝🏼 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021553269374333279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021553269374333279"
X Link 2026-02-11T11:53Z 22.5K followers, 83.4K engagements
"$SPGI's HUGE moat is data not its codebase. Claude is not a threat to S&P Global. Don't be fooled by the selloff last week"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"This is not a full DCF model. Let's not get hasty - I see nonsense LLM financial models every single day. It is super easy to whip something up. Is it worthwhile I haven't seen any evidence that any of these LLM-generated models are worth a single cent. There is no intuition. No insight. No value yet. A purpose-built LLM that has been trained by investment bankers and expert financial modelers may be able to produce a worthwhile output (probably not even close to end product as of yet). Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by"
X Link 2026-02-09T05:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Im honestly blown away that Claude integrated into Excel can build a full DCF model in [--] minutes just by answering [--] questions. A lot of tasks are becoming pure commodities if you dont keep up youre done"
X Link 2026-02-08T07:19Z 16.3K followers, 697.9K engagements
"Absolute "bloodbath" in the markets right now. Up +7% over the last [--] months. 😒 There is still a lot of room to the downside in the short-term. We see a momentary bounce over the next few weeks before another major leg down potentially retesting $480. This would be very healthy for the market"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"FDA commissioner says the institution will take "swift action" against copycat drug makers. Advantage $NVO"
X Link 2026-02-06T05:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Market sentiment around $NVO is terrible right now. This is understandable - management has cut guidance multiple times over [----] and [----] guidance was terrible (-5 to -13% declines in sales and operating profit). However management are not in a position to cut guidance again. They have to guide for the worst-case scenario for [----]. They need time to answer the following questions in 2026: (1) How will the Wegovy pill uptake go Initial prescription uptake rates from early [----] are good. (2) How will $LLY perform in [----] Will they continue to take market share $LLY expect their own pill in Q2"
X Link 2026-02-05T07:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO has significant structural headwinds over the short-to-medium term but I believe the long-term thesis is still in play. Yes loss of exclusivity most favored nations and GLP-1 competition are huge drags on revenue and profit (as evidenced by the terrible [----] guidance yesterday). However the drug pipeline is strong the moat is still intact and GLP-1s are not a zero sum game and a huge TAM runway over the next 5-10 years. But damn $NVO needs a new PR team. They aren't even trying to soften the blows of lowered guidance and poor outlooks over the last [--] quarters"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO ADR currently -14% on the day after the poor guidance for revenue and operating profit declines (-5% to -13%) for [----]. As expected. We see possible further downside from here potentially retesting the $46-$48 lows from a few weeks ago. Lots of $NVO bear cases were liquidated today. The final straw for holders who don't want to deal with the volatility + terrible sentiment. Perfectly understandable. $NVO is not for everyone. $NVO is for us though. We love high-quality businesses that are hated by the market moats trading in the bargain bin. 🙏 $NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO reports tomorrow. We are expecting a muted guidance outlook. Doustdar (new CEO) is very conservative and has already outlined how they expect a difficult [----] ahead. The guidance will likely be poorly received by the market and $NVO will play the "underpromise overdeliver" game. Market weakness back towards $50 (ADR) is an interesting prospect for long-term holders. What are you expecting from $NVO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018582483386745154"
X Link 2026-02-03T07:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Nice call. 👌 I think we could see further downside from here (potentially sub $50 ADR) and then the recovery $60"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"There were approximately 4-6 trading days over the last [--] years where SPY [---] WMA. You would have outperformed a simple DCA approach by about 5% IRR though despite sitting in cash for [--] years. This assumes you had $1000 to invest [--] years ago and either deployed equally on all trading days (DCA) or equally across days SPY [---] wma Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every"
X Link 2026-02-03T10:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting fact If you only bought the $SPY at or below its [---] WMA then you would beat every single fund on the Street over a [--] year period Same applies to $BTC and $ETH"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:19Z 253.1K followers, 50.4K engagements
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