# ![@tj_terwilliger Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1624139566864076804.png) @tj_terwilliger TJ Terwilliger

TJ Terwilliger posts on X about stocks, dividend, money, investment the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1624139566864076804/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1624139566864076804/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +198%
- [--] Month [-----] -48%
- [--] Months [------] -50%
- [--] Year [-------] -16%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1624139566864076804/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1624139566864076804/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -41%
- [--] Month [--] -32%
- [--] Months [---] +62%
- [--] Year [---] +47%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1624139566864076804/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1624139566864076804/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.09%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +20%
- [--] Year [-----] +75%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1624139566864076804/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1624139566864076804/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks), [dividend](/topic/dividend) #559, [money](/topic/money), [investment](/topic/investment), [business](/topic/business), [dividend yield](/topic/dividend-yield), [debt](/topic/debt), [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [longterm](/topic/longterm)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@europeandgi](/creator/undefined) [@cdinewsletter](/creator/undefined) [@thealphathought](/creator/undefined) [@dividendology](/creator/undefined) [@tjterwilliger](/creator/undefined) [@compoundingw](/creator/undefined) [@ryanopulus](/creator/undefined) [@brianferoldi](/creator/undefined) [@ifbpodcast](/creator/undefined) [@mapacheinvest](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@steadycompound](/creator/undefined) [@ashton1nvests](/creator/undefined) [@kinginvestings](/creator/undefined) [@fromvalue](/creator/undefined) [@iancassel](/creator/undefined) [@dividenddollar](/creator/undefined) [@pulllkit](/creator/undefined) [@derekquick1](/creator/undefined) [@herodividend](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)](/topic/$pep) [Waste Management, Inc. (WM)](/topic/$wm) [Cintas Corporation (CTAS)](/topic/$ctas) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Rollins, Inc. (ROL)](/topic/$rol) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Target Corporation (TGT)](/topic/$tgt) [Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (ARE)](/topic/$are) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [eBay Inc (EBAY)](/topic/$ebay) [Autozone Inc (AZO)](/topic/autozone) [Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB)](/topic/$kmb) [SafeMoon (SFM)](/topic/$sfm) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)](/topic/$jnj) [MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ)](/topic/$mdlz) [Hershey Co (HSY)](/topic/$hsy) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/eli-lilly) [Texas Instruments (TXN)](/topic/texas-instruments) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ)](/topic/$dpz) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@em013L I'm tempted but I'm not there yet on $PYPL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1660282400608329728)  2023-05-21T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FI_investor Nice write up. It mirrors my own conclusions. I had $ULTA on my radar before COVID and still regret not buying in March [----]. Didnt see such large amounts of stimulus coming so quickly. Im hoping it falls a little further so I can make up for past sins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1665014843584249858)  2023-06-03T15:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@FI_investor Hopefully moving forward they do better than they have in the past. I figure they've spent almost $15 billion in buybacks and have only reduced share count by 5% since [----]. Most of the buybacks offset stock issued to management. It's one of my big hesitations on $PYPL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1665733841636450307)  2023-06-05T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FI_investor Hopefully $PYPL is learning. It looks like a high shareholder yield. In reality they spend a pile of free cash on buybacks then issue almost the same amount of shares. When I ask myself if I'd want to own a business that gives all the FCF to the executives the answer is no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1666073292967407616)  2023-06-06T13:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Check out my latest company write up here. This time it's on $PYPL https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/p/paypalutm_source=twitter&sd=pf https://tjterwilliger.substack.com/p/paypalutm_source=twitter&sd=pf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1667619019103322113)  2023-06-10T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Futurenvesting I buy the growth arguments. Have to push back on the value of the buybacks though. Since [----] PayPal has decreased share count by 5%. They've spent $15 B to retire [--] M shares. Average price paid to retire a share of the company is.$241.93. Tons of SBC dilutes the buybacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1668373742584561667)  2023-06-12T21:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Copart is a great business. Its also so simple you can explain $CPRT in crayon. Dont believe me Here you go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1686548476249735168)  2023-08-02T01:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Why has Mr. Market endured so long I think it's because we all remain vulnerable to getting pulled into the ups and downs of the market. So many of the market's price swings result from emotion and not reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1783309526101315621)  2024-04-25T01:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"After all we get financial results every [--] months. Prices move all over the place between quarterly earnings though. If not emotions what's driving prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1783309528554963201)  2024-04-25T01:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@cullenroche OER is a lagging metric. It's already slowed. COVID pulled 5-10 years of appreciation forward. As long as mortgage rates stay 7% we'll see relatively flat pricing and a slow market until wages catch up. If rates get too low demand will go up inventory won't and look out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1790853040674685043)  2024-05-15T21:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Wasn't even going to write about $SMLR. But then they proved my analysis so right that I had to. This one makes my brain hurt. https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/semler-scientificr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/semler-scientificr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1796168753530466577)  2024-05-30T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SlowTurtle8998 Just started looking at this myself. I have the same feeling of something not sitting right. Looks like this is the Portnoy show. He owns pieces of all the REITS RMR manages and is their CEO. It does align interests I suppose but theres a lot to analyze here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1796527347752910964)  2024-05-31T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Salesforce $CRM was the latest SaaS company to lower guidance and drop in price. Is it a buying opportunity Here are my thoughts. http://tjterwilliger.substack.com/p/salesforce http://tjterwilliger.substack.com/p/salesforce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1797624435840819604)  2024-06-03T13:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What do $MSFT $COST $CPRT $CSU $CTAS and $KO have in common They're all great businesses. But some of them haven't been great investments. I'll show you why. https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/great-businesses-arent-always-greatr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/great-businesses-arent-always-greatr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1800173173494952087)  2024-06-10T14:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"True no-brainers happen occasionally when the market loses its mind. These are the easy no-brainer investments Charlie Munger talked about. Mohnish Pabrai would call them anomalies. They could be created by macro or company-specific events"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1802504337958092865)  2024-06-17T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"They could come from investing mandates like ESG created with coal companies. They could come from irrational investor behavior like Mohnish Pabrai found with Reysas in Turkey. They might be what Ben Graham would call unpopular large caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1802504339719651835)  2024-06-17T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The reason doesn't matter. Auction-driven markets occasionally offer good businesses up at ridiculous prices. Heres an example - remember in [----] when Netflix lost subscribers for the first time in a decade The market lost its mind. Heres the operating income VS stock price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1802504347487526969)  2024-06-17T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This was short-term panic. In [--] and [--] Netflix was profitable had a good balance sheet. Expecting everyone that joined during the pandemic to stick around forever was unreasonable. I still believe that buying quality companies at reasonable prices will yield fabulous results"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1802504350968721431)  2024-06-17T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ben Graham taught us that a stock is not a ticker symbol squiggly line on a chart or something to trade. A share of stock is a small ownership stake in a real functioning business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1803208906774126770)  2024-06-18T23:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$EVO dominates the online live casino market. They have sustainable advantages a strong balance sheet and a highly profitable business. Learn all about the company and why I think it's too cheap by checking out my profile link"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1809954091654615343)  2024-07-07T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"O'Reilly Auto ($ORLY) is a 400-bagger since IPO. Want to know how a store selling auto parts generates that kind of return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810663197407334484)  2024-07-09T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1. Store growth: In [----] O'Reilly had [---] stores. Today there are more than [----]. They're still adding about [---] stores a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810663198854353233)  2024-07-09T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2. Industry growth: Each year there are more cars on American roads and each year the average age of a car goes up. This has slowly driven up demand for the parts O'Reilly sells. [--]. Revenue Growth: O'Reilly has grown revenue 9% a year on average over the last [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810663200045584530)  2024-07-09T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4. Proft Growth: Net income has grown about 11.5% a year for the last [--] years. [--]. Capital allocation: O'Reilly has bought back about 6% of the company each year over the last decade reducing shares outstanding by 43% over that time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810663201635230022)  2024-07-09T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"O'Reilly's incredible performance since its IPO shows the power of steady execution a sound business model and great capital allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810663203312959678)  2024-07-09T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pulllkit @derekquick1 They have the highest auth rates with the lowest fraud rates they underwrite their own BNPL loans launching the ad business offering targeted discounts and deals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810721970268307859)  2024-07-09T17:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pulllkit @derekquick1 $PYPL just has to keep growing and buying back shares. 5-year CAGR on rev. is 14% and op. earnings is 17%. Buyback yield alone is 8%. Consumer growth isn't a driver for $PYPL anymore. Payment volume is. Businesses sell more when they use $PYPL so volume will keep going up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810754992677982472)  2024-07-09T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pulllkit @derekquick1 PayPals active accounts are equal to every adult in the United States Canada Germany the UK and Australia using PayPal. You can't expect much growth on that. [--]. Margins - they shrunk some with BrainTree growth A. Chriss says they're going to price to value I believe him"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810758074535116855)  2024-07-09T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pulllkit @derekquick1 [--]. Worries about competition - mainly from Apple Pay. I think the consumer side is commoditized and doesn't really matter for $PYPL anymore. The fact that merchants sell more using $PYPL than other providers is what will let them raise margins and grow revenue earnings etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1810758645342425207)  2024-07-09T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What's your opinion on $ATKR margins They're elevated since COVID if they're sustainable the stock is cheap. But if not. No insider buying tells me they might not be. Thoughts #investing #valueinvesting #stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1811025588812919096)  2024-07-10T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$CTAS is a great business but at 50x earnings probably not a great investment. That's how it earned itself a mention in the creatively titled "Great Businesses Aren't Always Great Investments" https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/great-businesses-arent-always-greatr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web 50x earnings is when you get to be featured on Business Breakdowns. $CTAS (I have no idea how anybody is long this with what is clearly a softening labour market and is at best a MSD topline grower. Theres a reason insider just sell this.) https://t.co/PDfJX4bBwb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1811412160251154601)  2024-07-11T14:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I think the Sahm Rule is currently more useful than the yield curve inversion as an indicator. Thinking About the Sahm Rule https://t.co/q0CMaoPk8m Thinking About the Sahm Rule https://t.co/q0CMaoPk8m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1811412836507062644)  2024-07-11T14:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Use a screening tool that will filter by shares outstanding - I use Search for a negative CAGR to find companies reducing share count. Enjoy looking at your list of potential cannibal companies http://finchat.io http://finchat.io"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812252169787101315)  2024-07-13T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A few that came up on my screener that are potentially interesting : $EBAY $ATKR $STLD $HRB $PMH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812252171582185741)  2024-07-13T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Paycom has been a growth machine in the past. It's grown revenue at a CAGR of 33% over the past [--] years and earnings at 66.8%. For comparison ADPs 10-year revenue CAGR is 4.11% and Paychex has a 10-year CAGR of 7.96%. Looks pretty good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976948097761446)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The market for the HCM software that Paycom sells is projected to grow at 9.1% a year until [----]. It has tailwinds behind it like: automation adoption of cloud-based HCM solutions need for talent acquisition and management use of technologies like AI and chatbots"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976949154689158)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Which brings me to risk #1 - growth. Paycom has grown faster than the industry in the past"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976950194893196)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For $PAYC to continue itll have to take market share from players like ADP and Paychex. These companies all have a switching moat. Once theyre in place it's hard to switch. Paycom has to offer enough to enough to draw business away from competitors.Do you think they can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976951142785227)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"ADP has a 90% customer retention rate. Paychexs is more than 80%. Its going to be an uphill battle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976952275329141)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"To be fair Paycoms software was completely developed in house. That means that it is not a patched together solution of multiple systems. It also means that it operates from a single database eliminating repeated data entry and reducing incorrect information in the database"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976953168723979)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Paycom also offers Beti. This application allows employees to manage verify and approve their own payroll before submission. This reduces errors and increases accuracy. Beti's self-service payroll technology streamlines and automates payroll for businesses and their employees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976954082992220)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk #2 is valuation. Paycom trades at the cheapest PE since [----]. At 19x earnings it looks cheap. But PE is only one metric. Valued on FCF $PAYC is selling for 30x free cash flow. But its even more expensive than that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976955026821290)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"But its even more expensive than that. Paycom uses high levels of share-based compensation. Subtracting SBC from FCF $PAYC trades at more than 50x FCF. Ouch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976956515729584)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lets try to guess at the return an investor can expect from Paycom. An easy way to do it is to take the projected earnings growth add in a dividend and buyback yield and account for multiple changes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976958055043079)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For Paycom analysts expect about 10% growth in earnings. They yield about 1% in dividends. Let's assume the PE stays around [--] Even after the drop in price investors can only expect about 11% returns from Paycom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976959011385695)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Charlie Munger says we should always invert. Lets invert the DCF model to see what expectations the market has priced in. For a 10% return starting with the [----] FCF-SBC number Paycom has to grow at over 23% a year for the next decade. Pretty high expectations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976960009535794)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk #3 is margins. Compared to competitors Paycoms are high. Their gross margins are 86% and operating margins are 27%. Paychex has a gross margin of 70% and an operating margin of 39%. ADP has a gross margin of 41% and an operating margin of 20%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976961284669819)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Should $PAYC see margin compression then the stock will look even more expensive than it is today. If you found this helpful follow me @tj_terwilliger for more of my thoughts on stocks and investing. You can also read more over on Substack with the link in my bio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976962287145058)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"TL;DR [--]. Paycom's past growth may not be sustainable. [--]. On a fundamental basis Paycom may not be as cheap as it appears. [--]. Paycom may be at risk of margin compression. $PAYC could be a great investment but these [--] risks have put it in my 'too hard' pile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1812976963323064343)  2024-07-15T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ShaneRWillamson I've got [----] EPS as $5.90 Operating Cash Flow / share as $8.36 That significantly changes the outcome of a DCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813030022774727118)  2024-07-16T01:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ethan_Invests Too hard for me doesnt mean it has to be for you. Im a lot happier with a [--] stock portfolio than [--] so the faster I can kill ideas the better. Question on PAYC is growth in the next decade: 10% - its about fair value 20% - its a bargain. Thats the too hard part for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813036245544579449)  2024-07-16T02:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ethan_Invests Big fan of $ULTA 👍"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813037027593535489)  2024-07-16T02:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$NKE is still expensive. I think investors get excited by the 20% drop in the last month but it's still not cheap. Going from very overvalued to modestly overvalued doesn't make a company cheap. $NKE is still expensive. - Just 14% return on assets. - [--] year revenue CAGR of 7%. - Operating expense up 25% since [----]. Here is why you should wait $55 levels to buy $NKE 👇🏼 https://t.co/oqXDJG2lc2 $NKE is still expensive. - Just 14% return on assets. - [--] year revenue CAGR of 7%. - Operating expense up 25% since [----]. Here is why you should wait $55 levels to buy $NKE 👇🏼 https://t.co/oqXDJG2lc2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813589099640394082)  2024-07-17T14:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@investmish Looking for bear cases is a good sign youre doing the work $PAYC ended up in my too hard box. SBC was one thing I really did not like. I also wasnt confident that they had a product that was so much better than competitors that theyd get companies to switch to them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813913704246730952)  2024-07-18T12:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@investmish Couldnt convince myself that they really do have a competitive advantage. $PAYC could be a great investment. If it grows with the HCM market its probably at fair value now. If it can grow significantly faster its cheap. But that was too hard for me to predict"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1813914218422559190)  2024-07-18T12:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HeroDividend So what Could be: - wealth = bigger house =room to store bulk purchases - Costco only builds in wealthier areas - Having to pay to get into the store keeps a certain demographic out - Probably not that shopping at Costco will make you rich - Buying $COST [--] years ago though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1814104021839356141)  2024-07-19T01:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@rationalwalk Would anyone expect a real estate investor to not love debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1814422075680923811)  2024-07-19T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"When @BornFitness best-selling fitness author and Arnold Schwarzenegger's nutrition advisor pitched a fitness and nutrition book it got turned down because it didn't have a schtick. The publishers wanted a "hook""  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1814426489879744827)  2024-07-19T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


""I view the markets as fundamentally brokenPassive investors have no opinion about value. Theyre going to assume everybody else has done the work." - David Einhorn: Is Einhorn right I spent hours down the rabbit hole on this. Here's what I think now:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1815921850783879209)  2024-07-24T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Stocks are still ownership shares of real businesses. As long as the business does well eventually you'll do well too. If you buy a good company run by good management here are a few possible outcomes:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1815921852264431696)  2024-07-24T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TidefallCapital Probably should get $ODFL. Its a bargain at under 40x earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1816534963501826356)  2024-07-25T18:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"#DividendAristocrats have increased their dividends for at least [--] years straight. Here are [--] from @CompoundingW to consider. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1818998118714667255)  2024-08-01T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CompoundingW PPG Industries ($PPG) has a strong moat in paints and coatings. Despite Q2 revenue dip earnings soared. Continued growth and dividend hikes are expected. PPG has increased its dividend for [--] consecutive years ()"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1818998119939326106)  2024-08-01T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CompoundingW . Medtronic ($MDT) leads the medical device industry. Q4 results were positive and so was guidance $MDT's current PE is around [--] VS a historic PE of [--] expect total returns above 13% per year over the next five years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1818998121847816352)  2024-08-01T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CompoundingW Target ($TGT) is a Dividend King and retail giant. While facing challenges it's showing resilience. Predictions for the next [--] years: 10% earnings growth per year 13% total returns per year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1818998123504472424)  2024-08-01T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CompoundingW TL;DR $PPG has a strong moat and long history of dividend increases $MDT is a medical leader and might be undervalued $TGT is resilient with good growth predicted Read the whole article here https://buff.ly/3WMrKfh https://buff.ly/3WMrKfh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1818998125404524842)  2024-08-01T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Want one of my favorite #Dividend ETFs Check out the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF $SCHD Why Dividend yield of 3.6% Low expenses 0.06% Holds [---] quality companies Good historical performance What's your favorite dividend ETF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1819137536431636613)  2024-08-01T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"#Dividend Growth vs. High Yield: 📈💰 Here are the dividend payouts for $10000 in a growth company vs. high-yield over a long time. Looks like high-yield wins for a long time. What it misses is the appreciation in the stock price.🤔 I bet #1's total return is a lot higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1819360508924907805)  2024-08-02T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Single Best Investment is a classic dividend book. Here are [--] dividend growth stocks meeting its criteria: Net income growth 8% Debt/Equity 50% Interest coverage: [--] Dividend yield 2.5% Payout ratio 60%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1819421664272150806)  2024-08-02T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2. Pick solid businesses that can tolerate changes. La Conciergerie has been a palace a courthouse and a prison"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820104333087654040)  2024-08-04T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3. Be considerate and deliberate with changes and additions. Be accepting of them when they improve your portfolio. Parisians did not like the Eiffel Tower when it was built. Now it's a symbol of the city"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820104334941589527)  2024-08-04T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1. Unemployment isn't that high. Higher than all-time lows isn't that bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820445886712815909)  2024-08-05T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2. Interest rates aren't that high. Higher than all-time lows Yes. Historically high No"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820445889120378915)  2024-08-05T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HeroDividend @Vanguard_Group Schwab and Fidelity too. Its investors panicking. Probably bullish for $NVDA. The big brokers will have to buy some GPUs to upgrade server capacity 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820467357946675682)  2024-08-05T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"💰 How to beat 90% of investors in [--] steps: [--]. Set up regular automatic investments into a total market index fund [--]. Pick an impossible-to-remember password - write it down [--]. When you get a raise increase how much you automatically invest Thats it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1820831358664511930)  2024-08-06T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Want to sleep well as an investor Consider putting some #dividend stocks in your portfolio. The yields are way more stable than stock prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1822104385335218231)  2024-08-10T02:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"High yields can generate a lot of income. Heres how much you need to invest to get $500 a year in dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1823752406456524812)  2024-08-14T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dickiebush Puts into perspective how many choices we make a day and how many are made on autopilot. See the Anne Frank House and the van Gogh museum while youre there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1824176219572584729)  2024-08-15T20:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ethan_Invests No specific opinion on my side. Havent researched the company in years. @Ethan_Invests hit my main concern - too hard to predict fashion trends. Same reason I wont invest in $LULU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1824886894829646241)  2024-08-17T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Hunting for your next multi-bagger Look for these [--] key traits: [--] Strong Revenue Growth [--] High Return on Capital [--] Long Runway for Growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826005950274138497)  2024-08-20T21:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@pitbuttchereit Love the Wooden quote. Another favorite of mine is from George Washington Carver: "Start where you are with what you have make something of it never be satisfied.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826010939415736335)  2024-08-20T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5 Screening Criteria for Dividend Growth Investors Investing in companies with growing dividends is attractive because it provides a reliable income stream that tends to increase over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622965221314873)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here are [--] criteria you can use to help you find interesting companies:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622968358736191)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1. Dividend yield 1.5% The higher the yield we can start with the faster we can compound by reinvesting. The current yield of the S&P is about 1.3% so these companies have above-average yields"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622969549902295)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2. Dividend growth 8% We'd like some yield now but we'd REALLY like it to grow over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622970862657751)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3. Payout ratio 60% Dividend growth investors tend to be long-term investors. Avoiding high payout ratios makes sure the dividend is sustainable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622972087406668)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4. Revenue growth 4% To grow the dividend we need rising revenue. Growth above 4% will beat inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622973618360526)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5. Debt/equity 50% Too much debt is risky. This helps screen out companies with too much leverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622974813720750)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A screen using these [--] criteria is a good place to start. You can change them as you see fit. Some examples that this screen turned up for me are Accenture PLC The Allstate Corporation and Snap-On"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1826622976294355368)  2024-08-22T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Most investors avoid retail. Here are [--] Reasons Joel Greenblatt says thats a mistake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828170644275757351)  2024-08-26T20:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1. Frequent information flow Retail businesses constantly put out data often every month or even weekly. All this data gives traders lots of reason for traders to jump in and out of retail stocks. That leads to point #2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828170646867579298)  2024-08-26T20:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Litte Book of Common Sense Investing & A Beginner's Guide To The Stock Market. Lessons: You're an owner of the company Let your money work for you Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828554593527308503)  2024-08-27T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Warren Buffet & The Interpretation of Financial Statements & Financial Intelligence Lessons: Accounting is the language of business Invest in companies that are financially strong Cash flow is king"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828554597054685528)  2024-08-27T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Intelligent Investor & The Education of a Value Investor Lessons: Price is what you pay value is what you get Margin of safety comes from the difference between price and value Always buy with a margin of safety"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828554599739072756)  2024-08-27T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"One Up On Wall Street & Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits Lessons: Growth is a component of value Price tends to follow earnings Earnings growth drives up the intrinsic value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1828554602569994659)  2024-08-27T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"EBITDA stripped out the initial costs of building the infrastructure to look at the profitability of the core operations. Used properly this made some sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678815875924093)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In the '80's the "corporate raiders" showed up and EBITDA was their weapon of choice. In a leveraged buyout or LBO a company is taken over and financed by a lot of debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678817289314437)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"EBITDA was a quick way to estimate if a company had enough cash flow to service that debt. This led to overly aggressive buyouts and companies being loaded with more debt than they could handle. The economy slowed down at the end of the '80s and a wave of bankruptcies followed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678818669273364)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Warren Buffett has called EBITDA "earnings before bad stuff." Here's why: Ignores crucial expenses (interest taxes depreciation) Can lead to overvaluing companies and excessive debt Doesn't reflect true earnings or cash flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678820133114176)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Despite EBITDA's problems and criticisms its popularity during the LBO boom solidified its place in financial analysis. EBITDA is just pretended earnings. Ignore it when you analyze a company. Use the actual earnings or cash flow instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678821605265861)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TL;DR: EBITDA is a flawed financial metric that ignores crucial expenses. Buffett calls it "earnings before bad stuff." Despite criticism it's still widely used. Focus on real earnings not "bullshit earnings" as Munger likes to call EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678823060742226)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If you liked this: Give me a follow: @tj_terwilliger Go back to the top and hit the repost button to share it with other investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1829678824478347643)  2024-08-31T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ive read more investing books than I can count and have bought individual stocks for nearly a decade. Here are [--] simple questions I ask before every investment to improve returns avoid mistakes and prevent emotional decisions:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1830058556747350103)  2024-09-01T01:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TL;DR Before you make an investment ask yourself: [--]. Do I understand it [--]. Why's the market wrong [--]. When will the market figure it out [--]. Why would I sell it These will help you get better returns and make fewer mistakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1830058564083229104)  2024-09-01T01:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If this was helpful: [--]. Follow me @tj_terwilliger [--]. Share it with other investors. Go back to the top and hit the re-post button. BONUS POINTS: Go to the link in my bio and subscribe to my newsletters. I toss a little bit of confetti 🎊 for every new subscriber"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1830058565484048587)  2024-09-01T01:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WilliamGreen72 Loved Greenblatts section on not having the optimal strategy and instead having a simple strategy that makes sense and you can stick with. Ive been thinking a lot lately about these types of themes - what to optimize for. Maximum possible returns probably isnt it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1830446957568921688)  2024-09-02T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3. The business should have limited exposure to extrinsic risk. This reduces volatility to external shocks It also leads to more consistent performance in all market conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1831142134482698456)  2024-09-04T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4. The business should generate free cash flow. Indicates financial health Allows reinvestment in the business or return of capital to shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1831142137401909385)  2024-09-04T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7. The business should generate a high return on capital. Maximizes investor returns Indicates good use of resources by management"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1831142146381910362)  2024-09-04T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8. The business should have a strong balance sheet that doesn't need outside capital. Ensures survival of the business Provides flexibility to take advantage of economic downturns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1831142149301109014)  2024-09-04T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TL;DR Ackman looks for: [--]. Simple businesses [--]. In dominant market positions [--]. Limited exposure to external risk [--]. Free cash flow [--]. High barriers to entry [--]. Excellent management [--]. High return on capital [--]. Strong balance sheets Steal this checklist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1831142152220389660)  2024-09-04T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The best investors think in years and decades. [--] tips to help you think long-term: Study market history - stocks go up in the long run Focus on the businesses not the stock price Understand that your emotions will make you want to make bad decisions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1833128710599315695)  2024-09-09T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The best investors buy businesses and not stocks. If the business does well the stock price will follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1833158970443268513)  2024-09-09T15:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I view the markets as fundamentally brokenPassive investors have no opinion about value. Theyre going to assume everybody else has done the work. David Einhorn president Greenlight Capital Is David Einhorn right Has passive investing fundamentally broken the market 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1834396594810261622)  2024-09-13T01:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Compounding is the most powerful force in investing. [--] tips to put it to work for you: Start Early:time is your best friend Reinvest Earnings:use dividends and interest to fuel growth Stay Consistent:keep contributing no matter the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1834679699534176397)  2024-09-13T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"That's a big difference. The S&P is made up of US-based companies but they operate globally. What about world GDP $86.5 T to $100.9 T - 3.1% growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813335755063358)  2024-09-16T22:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"On an earnings per share basis things line up better on a chart:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813364523733254)  2024-09-16T22:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Those three graphs look pretty similar. S&P [---] CAGR: 13% SPY AUM CAGR: 15% VOO AUM CAGR: 20%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813518857445666)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's the 90-year chart of the S&P. The green arrow is about where the first index fund was invented"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813545977745865)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm not suggesting that passive investing has disrupted the markets or caused a bubble. I'm also not advising against investing in index funds. I'm not advising anything. I'm just a guy on the internet 😀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813568979341449)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Plenty of other events occurred around that green arrow: Index funds introduced: [----] 401(k) plans introduced: [----] US abandons the gold standard: [----] Every one of them probably has some effect. There's more I missed. Those are just off the top of my head"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813591876043023)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Being a "passive investor" doesn't mean you should be an uninformed investor. That underperformance I mentioned is because investors buy and sell emotionally. You have to understand what you're investing in even if you do it passively"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813614613315587)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I hope you found this as interesting as I did and that it got you thinking. Feel free to leave your thoughts repost it or follow me @tj_terwilliger for more random nerdy thoughts on finance and investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1835813637384225076)  2024-09-16T22:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Fed rate cuts and the markets: When the Fed cuts rates at ATHs the market is usually higher a year later. The past few rate cuts have also come before recessions. Nobody knows what will happen but people will pick the data that supports their favorite narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1836577219243614313)  2024-09-19T01:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ValueStockGeek The markets have been pretty much up since [----] - probably abnormally so. I think it makes people under-appreciate that theres a risk of total ruin. Which of course plants the seeds for the next blow up. To win the race you have to finish the race"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1836724083611799749)  2024-09-19T11:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Cliff Asness - a hedge fund manager with a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago is highly respected in financial circles. Here are [--] suggestions he just made to help you make better decisions more money and avoid mistakes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1836933340886356013)  2024-09-20T01:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The best investors think about risk first. Why It takes a bigger gain to recover from a loss It guards against greed-driven mistakes It keeps them in the game for the long-run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1836947675297808583)  2024-09-20T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@joelmcohen If you want basic accounting and how to understand financial statements just buy them a copy of Financial Intelligence. That's all you need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1837302735030387139)  2024-09-21T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 reasons Joel Greenblatt loves retail stocks [--]. Frequent information flows [--]. Volatility creates opportunity [--]. Overreactions to misses [--]. Can take a long view on short-term bad news [--]. Lots of opportunities to be contrarian [--]. Easy to observe the business in the real world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1837314272138813878)  2024-09-21T02:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thinking long-term is an investing superpower. Here are [--] tips to help: [--]. Study market history - stocks tend to go up in the long run [--]. Focus on the business results not the stock price [--]. Manage your emotions - downturns always FEEL longer than they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840584076744429773)  2024-09-30T02:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HIMS & Hers is a fast growing company that investors are exicited about. I passed on it in less than [--] minutes. Yesterday subscribers to my newsletter learned my process to say no quickly. Miss the issue Grab it below https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/hims-and-hersr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/tjterwilliger/p/hims-and-hersr=24uaek&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840829090619908420)  2024-09-30T19:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Cliff Asness wrote one of the best papers I've read in a long time. He argued that the market has become less efficient over his career. Here's some proof that Cliff looks right about the market being irrational. Get your popcorn ready there's some crazy stuff here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840288929268110)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Exhibit 1: $FICO sells credit scoring and analytics services stead revenue growth of about 8% a year doubled their net profit margins in the last [--] years It's a good business. I don't think it's worth more than 100x earnings though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840318432002421)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lets use a simple model to see what kind of return we can expect: Expected yearly return = Earnings growth + shareholder yield +/- multiple expansion (multiple contraction) For shareholder yield Ill use dividend yield + buyback yield Here's the assumptions:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840341836218455)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Heres our equation for the next [--] years: Expected Return: 8% + 5% - 9% = 4% per year Thats actually a shockingly good return for a business you paid over 100x for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840409976881288)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Exhibit 2: Iron Mountain $IRM stores important documents data and physical items for businesses service is necessary and will keep growing Again a good business. What's the market have it priced like Yep that's another one over 100x. Well over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840438749806775)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Before everyone screams Iron Mountain is a REIT heres the Price / FFO. It's still not cheap:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840468013465809)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"As a REIT IRM has to pay out the vast majority of profits as dividends. If we look at dividends paid and revenue the CAGRs are almost identical at 7% so thatll be our earnings growth. Earnings growth: 7% Shareholder yield: 5% Price / FFO falls from 56x to 20x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1840840491472207924)  2024-09-30T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FluentInValue How do you see the risk of Amazon They offer the same thing as $HIMS. Thats a tough company to compete with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1842727472942465138)  2024-10-06T00:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@0xHorseman @thesamparr Unless youre Jim Simons. Then the army of PhDs does amazing 😆"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1843743229428289938)  2024-10-08T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$HIMS management: "While we believe there are currently no direct competitors that offer the full suite of solutions as we do." $AMZN:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1846273108531118514)  2024-10-15T19:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Great investors think there's something strange is going on in the markets. Here are [--] things you should read to get up to speed: Buffett's [----] letter "The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis" by Cliff Asness David Einhorn's letters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1846619621732012111)  2024-10-16T18:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Young Buffett rejected by Harvard finds out Graham teaches at Columbia so he goes there to study with him. Buffett had read Grahams classic The Intelligent Investorwhich he calls the best investing book ever written"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473717611930041)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thats where Graham showed us how to compare the future returns of the market with less volatile investments like bonds. Heres the trick: Graham teaches us to take the dividend yield of the market and add it to the earnings yield to find your current return. Simple right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473729657909529)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lets break it down: Current PE ratio of the S&P: about [--]. Earnings yield: 3.2% Dividend yield: 1.3% Total current return: 4.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473741712339050)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What about bonds AAA-rated bonds: yield 4.9%. 1-month T-bills: yield 4.6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473753624199404)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Still think Buffett is just timing the market He's making $14.6 billion each yearrisk-free 💸 This isnt savvy timing; its brilliant asset allocation. Lets be honest: I dont know what the market will do tomorrow next month or next year. And neither does Buffett"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473765565415725)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This isnt about predicting the future; its about calculating opportunity costs and acting on the best opportunity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473777695273074)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TL;DR: Buffetts cash reserves arent about market timing; theyre about smart asset allocation. He uses insights from Ben Graham to calculate opportunity costs positioning himself to make $14.6 billion risk-free without guessing the market's next move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1856473789636456466)  2024-11-12T23:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Charlie Munger modeled himself after Benjamin Franklin. Microsoft copied Netscape Lotus and many more to become dominant in software"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1857887641968193542)  2024-11-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Facebook has copied Snap TikTok bought Instagram and bought WhatsApp. Pabrai copied Buffett's partnership structure and his investing style. Backtests of picking ideas from 13-F filings beat the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1857887653796131314)  2024-11-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"They rationalize this by reasoning that if something is known to work then the advantage will be arbitraged away. Reality proves otherwise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1857887677665919287)  2024-11-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Walmart has nothing that can't be copied. Hedge funds haven't copied Buffett's structure. Chipotle gets credit for pioneering the assembly line style but have you ever been to a Subway They didn't invent it. Neither did Subway. There's nothing new under the sun"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1857887689615487267)  2024-11-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Why does the price you pay for an investment matter Time. I don't have [---] years to compound. Lindsel Train's piece A Very Long Hill about the power of compounding over very long periods is fascinating though. https://buff.ly/3WfI4ox https://buff.ly/3WfI4ox"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1858178323794600114)  2024-11-17T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"#3: Most of the time the market is roughly right. But when the prices are wrong they can be abysmally wrong. Big dislocations of price from value are usually caused by emotion and they can be opportunities for big profits. But taking action at these times is often difficult"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1859054104829653340)  2024-11-20T02:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"#4: Most investors commit the biggest mistakes by focusing on how much they can gain and forgetting how much they can lose. Good investing is a game of risk management. Focus on the downside and the upside takes care of itself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1859054116917686395)  2024-11-20T02:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"How to beat 90% of investors in [--] steps: [--]. Set up regular automatic investments into a total market index fund [--]. Pick an impossible-to-remember password - write it down [--]. When you get a raise increase how much you automatically invest Thats it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1859960084731937165)  2024-11-22T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Some of the biggest companies had interesting beginnings. Here are [--] of my favorites: [--]. ASML [--]. Proctor & Gamble [--]. Instagram Anyone interested in business should study their origin stories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861149108419076353)  2024-11-25T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MMMTwealth $ASML is one of the strongest moats I've ever seen. Maybe THE strongest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861262301510185328)  2024-11-26T04:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If I offered you 2% of a business that: makes $1 million grows 20% every year What would you pay for it What if there was a catch. That it would never distribute a single dollar to minority owners. Many don't want this business but people act like dividends are bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861364343570608388)  2024-11-26T11:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"At [--] Peter Cancro borrowed $125K then turned it into an $8B empire. Here's how he went from a sub shop employee to the owner of Jersey Mike's. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861586999549010209)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"He was a teenager working at Mike's Subs in [----] when the owners decided to sell. His mom suggested he buy it. At first he didn't want to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587012836626510)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"He'd been accepted to the University of North Carolina to study law and play football. Buying a sub shop seemed ridiculous. But with $125000 ($750K in today's dollars) heborrowed from his youth football coach and local banker Cancro purchased the shop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587024672891226)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Cancro will remain CEO and keep 10% of the company. He's got an incredible return on investment - roughly 6399900% on the $125000 he borrowed as a teenager"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587060169286139)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There are thousands of Jersey Mikes franchises. To open one you need between $200000 and $1.3 million. Locations make about $1.2 million in annual sales. Cancro says there's more growth to come: We believe we are still in the early innings of Jersey Mikes growth story"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587071959474218)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TL;DR At [--] Peter Cancro borrowed $125K to buy Mike's Subs turning it into an $8B empire. Despite near bankruptcy in '91 he grew Jersey Mike's to [----] locations and $3.3B in sales. Blackstone recently acquired the franchise netting Cancro a staggering ROI of 6399900%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587083766468744)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If you liked this jump back to the top so you can: Bookmark it Retweet it to share with others Then follow me for more threads on business and investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861587095636320568)  2024-11-27T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MMMTwealth Good picks. I think the data advantages $PYPL has are still underestimated or not well understood"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861775693471678934)  2024-11-27T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BenReynoldsIV Of those choices I agree with $PPG. $BDX still doesn't look cheap to me yield isn't that attractive and the payout ratio is high $PEP I'm not convinced will grow attractively $FUL would probably be my second choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861779869090136355)  2024-11-27T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5 steps to develop an effective investment strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1861855017814352284)  2024-11-27T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@wolfofharcourt I think part of this is that market hates uncertainty. If $EVO only operated in fully regulated markets you wouldnt see such a low multiple. Probably also takes some penalty for not being a US listed company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1862115938444705861)  2024-11-28T12:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kross_Roads Shhh $PYPL is dying. Nobody uses it anymore. Everyone should just sell their shares back to the company. Preferably at low prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1862167366601265378)  2024-11-28T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5 Screening Criteria for Dividend Growth Stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1862315562732511247)  2024-11-29T02:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Red Flags in Financial Statements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1862579793809875161)  2024-11-29T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DvdndDiplomats Revenue is flat cash is declining debt is increasing payout ratio is high - other than the high yield I don't see much to make $PFE interesting. What am I missing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1862688725051883797)  2024-11-30T02:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteadyCompound Grant's Interest Rate Observer has some more nothing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863217562185593260)  2024-12-01T13:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


""A more mature business with a high ROIC is generally able to maintain its growth with limited reinvestment. This results in higher and more predictable cash flow to investors via dividends or share repurchases." Dividends don't = no growth. They can just indicate lots of cash ROIC The Underappreciated Variable in Valuation https://t.co/rq3RJSboX9 ROIC The Underappreciated Variable in Valuation https://t.co/rq3RJSboX9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863617809764270520)  2024-12-02T16:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Read and his brother ended up buying the gas station and selling it when they retired. Ronald stayed retired for a year. He spent [--] more years working at J.C. Penney as a janitor and doing maintenance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863666980278227144)  2024-12-02T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Read consistently invested in stocks of companies that paid growing dividends and reinvested them to buy more shares. He owned companies like: J.M. Smucker Procter & Gamble Johnson & Johnson"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863666992173158588)  2024-12-02T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"He gave $2 million to his stepchildren caregivers and friends. He donated $4.8 million to the local hospital and $1.2 million to the library. Read owned [--] stocks in industries like healthcare telecommunications public utilities railroads banks and consumer goods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863667015850115503)  2024-12-02T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's what we can learn from Ronald: Small investments can become big fortunes Invest in what you understand. Buy established companies with growing dividends Reinvest those dividends Focus on long-term growth. This strategy can give you impressive results"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863667027745050894)  2024-12-02T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If you liked this and you're interested in investing dividends learning and growing follow me @tj_terwilliger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863667039531045299)  2024-12-02T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Nike's stock has declined more than 50% over the past [--] years. They own one of the most well known brands in the world. Bill Ackman has more than 10% of his portfolio in $NKE I'll tell you why I passed on the stock in [--] seconds:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863766096693879060)  2024-12-03T02:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@TheModernValue High ROIC tends to be sustainable meaning these companies get lots of compounding benefits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863927075494609340)  2024-12-03T12:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Great questions @stonkmetal I don't know the business well either. Management may be betting on falling interest rates From a defensive standpoint paying down debt is never a bad option. Quick looks shows EBIT/Interest expense as only [---] so first reaction is I'd rather see that reduced before heavy buybacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1863930195998117999)  2024-12-03T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@investwithwes1 Thats a recipe for underperformance if Ive ever seen one Its hard to outperform (or even keep up) even if you have heavy US exposure and arent in the big tech stocks. Love the focus on risk/reward and not performance in the recent past"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864278010511175746)  2024-12-04T11:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I can see a "price goes no where while earnings grow" multiple contraction for Costco. That's not exactly what happened with Microsoft. Microsoft did trade quite expensive during the internet bubble. But when the bubble burst their revenue and profits took a hit PC sales were slumping and it took [--] years for profitability to recover to [----] levels. Cloud was nowhere to be seen at that point so the stock got cheap (10x earnings or so) and it took the decade+ for the stock price to recover. Anything is possible but I don't see Costco profits dropping 40% like Microsoft's did or Costco trading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864456046690902137)  2024-12-04T23:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Peter Lynch popularized this must-know metric to find truly undervalued stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864486102369026353)  2024-12-05T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jbrohnson No idea. If Im investing I want to hold for at least [--] years. Next years shoe releases dont move the needle on that time line. There have been plenty of popular and limited release shoes in the past revenue has still only grown 5% per year slower more recently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864635481863954881)  2024-12-05T11:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Justin_Saffel That tracks if I remember right the most popular vehicle from the research in "The Millionaire Next Door" was an F-150"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864662605568119154)  2024-12-05T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Dividend income from $100000 invested in these [--] ETFs: QQQ: Yield 0.63% VOO: Yield 1.29% SCHD: Yield 3.46% JEPI: Yield 7.20% JEPQ: Yield 9.56% QYLD: Yield 11.61%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1864791886218825929)  2024-12-05T22:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValuingDutchman US stocks are about [--] standard deviations more expensive than the rest of the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865028094899191984)  2024-12-06T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FluentInValue $SBUX and $TGT next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865029148172759496)  2024-12-06T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CompoundingQtly @SteadyCompound I assumed he lost weight 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865054118038958219)  2024-12-06T15:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ryanOpulus Really like the test drive idea [--] to [--] months is long enough to find out if moving is really what you want but not so long that fear will keep you from trying it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865391306098319635)  2024-12-07T13:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Genuinely curious how people are thinking about this. There's a lot of bad news priced into these names at 13x earnings or so. Walmart is trading at close to 40x earnings. And you get to collect a 3% or 3.5% dividend while you wait for things to turn around"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865540418764759198)  2024-12-07T23:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"RULE 3: Be a shameless cloner. Copy the best. Use their frameworks. Look at what they're buying. There are no points for originality. Cloning reduces the learning curve and gies you higher chances of success"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865573302204604606)  2024-12-08T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"RULE 4: Be entrepreneurial. Buffett says he's a better investor because he's a businessman and a better businessman because he's an investor. Mohnish agrees. Running a business teaches: Operations Risk assessment Long term focus Adaptability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865573314061869557)  2024-12-08T01:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IFB_podcast These five ratios are great for finding good value investments. They help you see if a stock is priced right how much debt the company has if it can pay its short-term bills and how well it rewards shareholders with dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1865765250915577930)  2024-12-08T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteadyCompound Lots of people holding really expensive stocks are reading the chart like this:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tj_terwilliger/status/1866099699662385387)  2024-12-09T12:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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