# ![@tclaugus2 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::46951148.png) @tclaugus2 Thomas Claugus II

Thomas Claugus II posts on X about $bldr, $etsy, ebay, tariffs the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::46951148/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::46951148/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -41%
- [--] Month [------] +249%
- [--] Months [-------] +117%
- [--] Year [-------] +204%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::46951148/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::46951148/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -74%
- [--] Month [--] +85%
- [--] Months [---] +195%
- [--] Year [---] +193%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::46951148/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::46951148/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.09%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.70%
- [--] Months [-----] +12%
- [--] Year [-----] +18%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::46951148/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::46951148/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  54.55% [finance](/list/finance)  48.76% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  11.57% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  7.44% [countries](/list/countries)  5.79% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.83% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  0.83% [us election](/list/us-election)  0.83% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.83%

**Social topic influence**
[$bldr](/topic/$bldr) 9.92%, [$etsy](/topic/$etsy) 8.26%, [ebay](/topic/ebay) 7.44%, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) 6.61%, [$amwd](/topic/$amwd) 6.61%, [$snex](/topic/$snex) 5.79%, [money](/topic/money) 5.79%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4.96%, [$dole](/topic/$dole) 4.96%, [debt](/topic/debt) 4.96%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@scroogecapital](/creator/undefined) [@timothybuffett](/creator/undefined) [@nuggetcapital](/creator/undefined) [@gary79699215](/creator/undefined) [@rorypan6261](/creator/undefined) [@bwieaktien](/creator/undefined) [@dvanberg23](/creator/undefined) [@spx9k](/creator/undefined) [@salvaxvii](/creator/undefined) [@siyul](/creator/undefined) [@niubi1988](/creator/undefined) [@nate93658762](/creator/undefined) [@freightalley](/creator/undefined) [@calbotster](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)](/topic/$bldr) [Etsy Inc (ETSY)](/topic/$etsy) [StoneX Group Inc. Common Stock (SNEX)](/topic/$snex) [Dole, plc (DOLE)](/topic/$dole) [Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)](/topic/$pins) [Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)](/topic/$gpk) [eBay Inc (EBAY)](/topic/$ebay) [SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. (SSNC)](/topic/$ssnc) [Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)](/topic/$nomd) [PACCAR Inc (PCAR)](/topic/$pcar) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Energy Transfer, LP. (ET)](/topic/$et) [Amcor PLC (AMCR)](/topic/$amcr) [Decentral Games (DG)](/topic/$dg) [Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)](/topic/$sig) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [CarMax, Inc (KMX)](/topic/$kmx) [Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI)](/topic/$bbwi) [Diversified Energy Company plc (DEC)](/topic/$dec) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR)](/topic/$figr) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Bull Market (BULL)](/topic/$bull)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Since I am chatting about web data a lot recently I will make one more obvious comment on $PINS. Yes the traffic growth looks fine as I have stated however investors are focused on the fact that much of the traffic growth is outside US and Canada where the ARPU is significantly lower. This is why the stock is not performing. We would probably need to see a pick up in US/Canada traffic. People afraid it has peaked in US/Canada (and the stock comp is ridiculous) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019421130759557295 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019421130759557295"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2019421130759557295)  2026-02-05T14:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On an oldie but not so goody. $DOLE in a weak consumer environment. banans are the cheapest fruit still in the grocery ($.67 per pound). Management team imo is average unfortunately. Considering it as a trade. one of the few areas where there is some positive news. Banana prices are moving up at a good pace. Balance sheet is fine now. Just a trade to $16-$17 though. Wish I had something better. At least there is a tailwind here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985724389074010460 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985724389074010460"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1985724389074010460)  2025-11-04T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$DOLE the banana price tailwind is there. Should have momentum going into next year. At least its a safe option in the consumer grocery space right now. Nice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1987881217623044287)  2025-11-10T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On $DOLE I just want to point out the company went public in a year when there were weather related events in the fall prior to the year they went public and it was a very good cash flow year. There were questions on the call about contract negotiations and pricing for next year. Remember their margins get compressed this quarter and next quarter as negotiations are typically 1-2 years in length. They are negotiated at the end of the year. The historical data indicated they will get pricing and next year will be good on cash flow. The benefit is coming. You just have to wait for the March"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1987956962651501017)  2025-11-10T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Well $SNEX is set for a really good [----]. It is one of my long term growth plays and I have held it for quite some time now. It's fairly valued at 2x book based on a normalized ROE (they are doing better than average currently). From here you are liiking at stock that grows at the rate of book value growth or approximately 15% per year (2x book = $90). I will let it compound. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1993707300469571686 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1993707300469571686"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1993707300469571686)  2025-11-26T15:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I commented on $FIGR the other day after doing more research I decided to pass. I'm looking at tokenization because I have fears it may disrupt the brokerage industry and at some point have an effect on $SNEX (which has grown to an 11% position for me from 5.5%). So I am concerned about long term threats. I would like to find a good investment that takes advantage of tokenization of assets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995518268316983689 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1995518268316983689"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1995518268316983689)  2025-12-01T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$dole just sold a port in Ecuador for $75MM in net cash proceeds. Balance sheet basically fully desrisked. Now if they actually execute on the $100MM share buyback we might get $22/sh. I don't think they will execute like they should but I got my fingers crossed. Target of $16.50-$17 should be pretty easy from here. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001694684968817148 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001694684968817148"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2001694684968817148)  2025-12-18T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DOLE I remain a buy TRADE position. This pull back gives a really good shot at +10% or more in the next [--] months. Should trade $15.5 or higher. Confident on the banana price helping [----] no real reason for stock to trade down imo. Just an educated guess"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2009336344733184311)  2026-01-08T18:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Couple of quick website data comments: $ETSY traffic up. Best year in [--] for the December quarter (not up a lot though only 5-6%). Still trades at EV/sales of 2.5x which I have stated in the past is the low trading level for $EBAY historically. I called $ETSY out in Oct/Nov of [----] as a tax loss sale buy the stock candidate. Hasn't been great but that was the low of the stock (or close anyhow) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016196042425872815 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016196042425872815"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2016196042425872815)  2026-01-27T17:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The more interesting one in terms of stock reaction is $PINS. Looks like traffic up 15% for the November/December months. I'm not sure what is going on there so I am not recommending. But I guess the AI fear from ChatGTP coming It's clearly a forward look/fear and not in any data I'm seeing. interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016196581486198905 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016196581486198905"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2016196581486198905)  2026-01-27T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DOLE was my other re-trade. I said $15.50 back to there was easy so if you bought a couple weeks ago at the $14 pullback a banked 10% should be fine. There is a pricing tailwind here. I have friends that believe it will go to $22. i think it doesn't grow and is boring and I am praying for $17-$17.50. (which I have previously stated) anyhow. Take profits if you just want the easy money. I do own [-----] shares. I have not traded out so I am there. Much more safe/confident than $GOOS . https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016198511339933795 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016198511339933795"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2016198511339933795)  2026-01-27T17:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I hate both $PINS and $ETSY stock comp levels. pretty ridiculous for both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2016200875711115584)  2026-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"LAYOFFS LAYOFFS LAYOFFS How afraid are we supposed to be How much is AI My dummy summary ONLY IN 2026: Pinterest 15% of workforce 650-1000 jobs Amazon [-----] jobs (after announcing [-----] late 2025) Meta - [----] cut from metaverse ASML [----] layoffs UPS [-----] layoffs Nike [---] Layoffs distribution facilities TN Mississippi Tyson Foods [----] layoffs (must be AI :)) Mastercard 4% of Global workforce Expedia (just recently [---] tech roles eliminated) Dow Chemical [----] jobs Autodesk 7% of Workforce (1000 jobs) I own $FOXF I would like there to be some people with money to buy mountainbikes and pimp out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2017051214618177909)  2026-01-30T01:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$GLD is down but I tried to point out that the 1980s high inflation adjusted price is $3580. Even with this reset trade it is substantially above this level. Crypto still not responding. At least on $BTC (Bitcoin) you can argue there is a mining cost of what I note below and understand that it is trading below that price. My question always is the following: Once the last bitcoin is mined. how do I get a cost to mine to justify buying it with this method. If I always thought there would be a cost to mine far out into the future. I might consider owning bitcoin. but once the last coin is mined"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2018324778260541817)  2026-02-02T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Its not just SaaS. I got crushed in $SSNC yesterday. I dont know quite how they blanket targeted these stocks. It was impressive. This did not use to happen in the stock market like it is today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2019039122124652790)  2026-02-04T13:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I got clocked in $SSNC in the software selloff thing that happened yesterday. Looks like they are pushing this momentum trade again today. It's painful mentally. I think it takes a while to penetrate some of these customer bases. Feels like some big guy(s) are manipulating to me but it's working. $PINS looks like it is in this trade as well. I keep looking at the data and the trends look fine there. Don't love the product. Keep being tempted to snag some. $1.70 in EPS with 15% growth rate and stock at $20 looks reasonable on the surface. Like everyone else I am too afraid to put my toe in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2019060288905978343)  2026-02-04T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BwieAktien I think you're fine at that price. Around here we are at a P/S ratio of 1x for a high margin brand. Calling fashion is difficult so you always have this risk. Should trade at 1.5-1.75 times revenue to 50-75% higher than here. ($14.50-$20) They do need to get the costs down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2019419511657808369)  2026-02-05T14:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Hard for $SNEX to get a big multiple. A lot was factored in going into the quarter. I am still bothered how they cannot grow retail (it was down Y/Y). This ain't no $HOOD or $BULL It's a magnificent way to gain exposure to commodities trading and gain a benefit from higher rates. It was a fabulous quarter. All the gold and silver ruckus this quarter should be good for them. My cost is $44 my position size is now 14.5% of my portfolio. What to do. when am I supposed to let off the gas. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019428483944910871 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019428483944910871"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2019428483944910871)  2026-02-05T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Well I believe the most interesting news in the market by far this week was the total [----] cap ex budget of $AMZN $MSFT $META and $GOOG . The number quoted as cap ex for [----] by these [--] I believe is $650BB. It's probably hard to have a recession with this much dough being spent. Here is a table of S&P500 Index companies capital expenditures per year for the past [--] years (ALL [---] companies combined). For reference in [----] [--] months capex were the following: $AMZN $132BB $MSFT $83BB $META $70BB $GOOG $92BB Total: $377BB Going to $650BB (I am working on verifying this number but it is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2020551689527341297)  2026-02-08T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Multi agent Claude Code made a C compiler today. (10 man years of work). I think. I really like this vibe coding competition video showing how to make a Granola app clone in one hour vs a ios App top programmer (you tube link at the bottom of the post). A MUST WATCH. This is accelerating and fast. We all need to make some fundamental decisions on where to put our money as this occurs. It's like nothing I have ever seen so I will post my thoughts on potential win lose areas as I think it through. The most obvious thing is that computer code is being attacked first. Productivity or production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2021453683355996247)  2026-02-11T05:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SSNC I have held for quite some time. (2 years) Getting whacked again on the software trade. Looks like $PINS gets sucked into this behavior as well. I'm not sure where to buy on $SSNC. I Think their end market is pretty fragmented and none of their customers are going to build their own apps. This is why I am focused on AI coming into software. I do think it is application dependent. Initially I am not that afraid of AIs effect on $SSNC . Maybe the Blue Prism part since it is kind of agentic AI which may just get replaced. Interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021606894188552290"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/2021606894188552290)  2026-02-11T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Due to merch mix. $DLTR the dollar tree customer is more akin to TJ maxx type buyer. Home goods and some other items. Big Lots tried at grocery and then added furniture but they got nuked on it. EBIDTA at dollar general has come under severe pressure. Consumables seem logical but as stores get closer and Walmart builds out small town after small town it gets too tough. Look. As stated $DG is better than Family Dollar. $DLTR the core store is a seasonal product business. I believe it draws buys from more middle to upper class . $DG and Family Dollar do not get those customers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831762134415634824)  2024-09-05T18:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Y. I never said strong buy on $DLTR. I said speculative buy and I like the $DLTR customer position not Family Dollar. The argument against Temu is time to delivery. If you order online from Dollar Tree there is also a long shipping timeframe wait. I think most prefer to go and get I the product instead of waiting [--] weeks but its just my guess nothing to back that up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831764851456110771)  2024-09-05T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TimothyBuffett @scroogecapital Thrill slash convenience slash holiday birthday. That is what dollar tree is for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831776451324211433)  2024-09-05T19:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TimothyBuffett @scroogecapital I dont think its an awesome idea. I think its reasonable to think that this buying format persists and earns a reasonable return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831776937066557756)  2024-09-05T19:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TimothyBuffett @scroogecapital Cool. Didnt like my response so I deleted it but you reposted. Its all good. I think both are just ok. $DG EBITDA is crashing but its cheap $DLTR needs to jettison Family Dollar. Thats my thinking for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831789210552176740)  2024-09-05T20:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Existing home sales weak. I bought an expensive home this year. However in my neighborhood home went up for $1.9mm almost a month ago. Nice place. No interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1831790046846009625)  2024-09-05T20:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just reiterating that I said 50bps was coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1836503787403424095)  2024-09-18T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Uh oh. Here comes a real war. Not sure why US would warn Iran preparing for ballistic missile attack on Israel if it wasn't real. Gold going higher along with oil. War not good for anything. Especially when the idiots in this country have run up significant debt in front of it as risks of such an event have only increased in recent years. Evaluating what to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1841119690086600987)  2024-10-01T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Im kind of interested to see what $BTC bitcoin does vs gold in this sort of situation. Will the belief as a gold substitute theory hold On day one its not looking that way but thats not a good timeframe for measurement at all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1841125333736522084)  2024-10-01T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Well. We are entering tax loss selling season. When I look back a lot of my best buy prices occur in this month. The one I am recommending trying to pick off out of the lot of stocks near [--] week lows is $ETSY. I mentioned this name a while back and settled on buying EBay for a trade instead which was the correct call at the time. $ETSY you get at 10x FCF. Manageable debt. You are fighting a weak consumer and GMS negative low single digits. Honestly post pandemic acceleration they didnt give back much at all in revenue so I am not sure why people are hating on it so hard. They have been very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1841853212325826596)  2024-10-03T14:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DLTR - I decided to take profits. It appears SSS holding up this quarter as far as I can tell (Dollar Tree part) The dang Family Dollar issue keeps me from being able to put it on in size. They are having increased pressure from Walmart and Temu. Its not a horrible idea at these levels just not great. I did ok sniffing the short term bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1841855261482615064)  2024-10-03T14:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Did buy 3% ETSY. Short interest is very high. Consumer is weak. Interesting thing is that [--] year EBay low was 2.5x EV/sales. Buying $ETSY at 2.6x got to be there. If it pukes this month somewhere Ill add"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1841896410095964618)  2024-10-03T17:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I think there are a couple main issues. Growth is #1 thing people are focused on. Looks like it could be tapped out. US hasn't grown much at all for a couple years. Intl has grown nicely though over this timeframe. I'm not too worried about topline at this valuation level as I think it is mostly discounted. They can buy back stock and grow earnings fairly well. For me the issue is to reduce stock comp which is very high at the company. This is my main hesitation in making it a large position. The company is being run well. They are focused on curating the site for handmade and keeping what"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1842197436925620715)  2024-10-04T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In retail frequency is extremely important. The more often someone comes to your store you get a chance at impulse buys. Etsy is having some trouble with driving frequency of visit. The reason Ebay leaned into collectibles makes a ton of sense. People go to Ebay to bid on a baseball card. they go back to check to see what the price is what the price of comparable cards are. etc etc and while they are on there there is a chance they click on some other item to potentially purchase. This strategy of collectibles driving frequency makes total sense. I can't see one for Etsy. Right now they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1842198918529994899)  2024-10-04T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NOMD showing weak scanner data (-5% yoy last couple weeks) so people getting out ahead of the quarter. Im staying put. ERP implementation is being blamed by some. Unclear if this is exactly the problem or not. The valuation of the company on the low end here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1844374813583999483)  2024-10-10T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Hope everyone is well. I am on the island of Madeira Portugal. Waiting for Israel response to Iran because I think this will shape a lot more of what is going to happen than most feel. Maybe Im just an old worrywart at this time. Rates in the US are fine. We avoided a recession which was to be mild anyway but something feels off. Like the calm before the storm. If everything stays as is I guess were just fine. Thats not the history of life though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1845913293497770458)  2024-10-14T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ETSY reports in [--] days. Getting a lowered target by [--] or [--] different brokerage firms in the last few days. I wrote some Jan $50 puts for $5 to add around $45. Taking it to 4% there. I think it's a pretty good value despite the current weakness in their business. There is still a chunk of foreign expansion to go relative to other ecommerce names. Still believe they are doing a good job maintaining their core differentiation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1850958385380008445)  2024-10-28T17:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ETSY people must have been expecting much worse. There was no sequential guide down in relative performance (a little better comp for core $ETSY in Q4). I don't see anything wrong at all with the core business and it is being managed well. (Other than very high stock comp). Here is the [--] yr EBay price to sales vs ETSY price to sales (ETSY top graph EBAY bottom). As I said it was trading near the low end of it's potential valuation and so I had to be there. Think it will be fine from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851737309755871383)  2024-10-30T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Housekeeping on my names. $GPK reported and I keep this as a long term holding. Y. ok. weakness in consumer spend guide down slightly. Stock whacked pretty good. The FCF comes in [----] when Waco CRB plant is done. This is a dominant US packager with an excellent low cost position and management team. Low $40s target [--] years out. I will add if it trends to low 20s. I have it at 7% due to appreciation in the stock price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851738244775371077)  2024-10-30T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@dvanberg23 @SPX9K Well yes he is paying himself too much. Should he be replaced. No. He is doing a great job. He just needs to be a little more kind with his compensation. Focus is great. Execution (other than acquisition prices paid) excellent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851739489716367590)  2024-10-30T21:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SalvaXVII No guide for [--] just Q4. Looks like it implies slightly better and I mean slightly Q4 comps for core $ETSY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851741366424080638)  2024-10-30T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney I had picked $EBAY over $ETSY about [--] mos ago. Core strategy reasonable. It is good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851743176383697207)  2024-10-30T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I look at his role in terms of doing a good job as staying true and enforcing the homespun/handmade/higher quality aspect of the products on the website. It is tough to find comparable items on Amazon or Shein/Temu. Their main problem is frequency of visit. They are trying a loyalty program and focusing on gifting AI Anyhow. trying to help consumers focus in on gifting for particular individuals. I think they are doing a good job on this. Does it increase frequency I doubt it. The fact that he is staying true to core mission is what I value. Look after he became CEO the company has absolutely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851744952281149506)  2024-10-30T21:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I actually think the fed rate cut was necessary and did indeed avoid a recession. However there is no credit expansion. Which is a good thing imo but the multiple of the market should not just continue to expand in such a scenario imo. There needs to be consolidation and some debt (Mainy US govt) reduction but it is bot seemingly in the cards. This is why gold and bitcoin are outperforming the market handily in the past [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1851756864662340086)  2024-10-30T22:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Well folks I have made $651 so far on $ETSY. Took it to 5% at $52.5 and left the put at $50 for $4.95 on. I think it's in a good zone to accumulate. I don't think I will take it over 5% though ($1MM bet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1852030072632283294)  2024-10-31T16:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ETSY. this is my October low pick. I looked at $VPG $HBIO I know this sounds crazy but I am of the size I can invest in most any [--] wk low stock I want. I think it grinds but at 2x sales this is really a marketplace with high margins (royalty on sales of its participants essentially). If they buy back $1BB of stock it just gets cheaper and they have the capital to do it. They are staying true to mission and not falling to the depravity of lowest cost Chinese goods but good merch at a reasonable (not cheap) price. Look I think the goods on the site are good. I think they are differentiated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1854611632900415997)  2024-11-07T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So I think $ETSY looks cheap. Have been digging a lot more and have found that the new search algo needs to be monitored and the $6 dollar to have shipping increased SEO exposure is an interesting dilemma. I think sales in October were indeed weak and they guided on the call to slight improvement in $ETSY GMS for Q4 on the call. It's hard to feel confident when October appears weak from the you tube commentary I have monitored. So I believe at around 2x sales it is a long term buy but I am approaching it cautiously with calls etc to lower the cost. I tend to do low EV/Sales names and there is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1856046512754610484)  2024-11-11T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@siyul Probably not. $EBAY is an alternative for a lot of $ETSY sellers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1856051462813491706)  2024-11-11T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NOMD reports this week. I am not expecting any star spangled performance. They own good brands in a weak environment. Europe is in a bit of a tailspin if you listen to the $DOW or $CE calls you will hear that they are considering cutting back in Europe due to the energy cost disadvantage there (mainly nat gas). However it is a well managed company with good brands. I have to leave the readers to do their own searches for the Croatian brands they own in ice cream (King) and other things. It's fine. Just a resting spot and very undervalued here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1856128709717045556)  2024-11-12T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$NOMD guided down so no reaction from the stock. Payout is a little too high on cash flow imo and reasonably levered. Does trade at 9x EPS and under its comp $CAG here in the states. It is well run but a bit of a slog for sure. Not sure what turns the sentiment on this name. Figured it should trade in the mid $20s but there's not much excitement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1857193562254803363)  2024-11-14T22:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ETSY given the algo change at the beginning of October and what seems to me to be sparse communication with sellers as many responses have become automated I decided to purchase some traffic data to decide as there are many people who complain on marketplaces. Its a difficult task to herd all the people involved in the business so I sympathize with the attempts to automate the interactions. However it appears traffic may have gotten worse and time spent per user appears to have gone down. Its difficult to decipher but enough data has leaned me to take off the position and await the print. Im"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1861618377740943584)  2024-11-27T03:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I spent about an hour with the CEO of $CSWC last week. He is very intelligent and I believe shareholder driven. It is an internally managed BDC so it is an income/yield vehicle. I put 4% on at $23.20. Just to get an 11% all in yield or so. I believe it is low risk when I went through how he manages the portfolio and the overall risk tolerance. I have too much cash and might as well take the yield as long as I believe its not unsafe as many high yield names actually are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1861785924553593343)  2024-11-27T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tariffs matter to Canada We will see what Trump actually does. Exports as a % of GDP: China 20% US 11% Canada 33.7%. Destination of Canada exports. US 76%. uh oh so US exports = 25% of Canada GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1866941230044656093)  2024-12-11T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NOMD caught a small upgrade today. Still think it should trade in the mid $20s Europe showing some signs of life but I think it still is a difficult area of the world to be in [----]. Maintaining at a 5% position. I like the management"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1867197695494164615)  2024-12-12T13:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CSWC I'm taking it up. Think downside is $19 (a 14% dividend yield). Loan book will grow 10% in Q4. Rates coming down is a double edged item for the company. Lower interest income but creates higher demand for capital at the same time. They raised money near the top of the stock price and are putting a chunk of it to work this quarter. Need to believe rates don't go down a lot more from here which is my opinion on what is going to occur. Think there is a good shot you collect $2.52 in dividends in the next [--] months and a decent probability of the stock going up 10% or a 22% [--] year return. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1867587836095959182)  2024-12-13T15:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"2 things to note. The dividend yield over one year get you close to my downside price of $19/sh which theoretically would mean that you lose no money in the poor outcome scenario. Also if you observe the track record the company has never cut the normal dividend even in [----]. So who knows. I think it's worth a shot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1867605408635908354)  2024-12-13T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$QUBT showing why gambling money is working. The short game is broken which is why I stopped doing it about [--] years ago. Checked the borrow rate and it's at 245%. Maybe I should go long and lend out the shares 🙃. Just not a game to play any longer. Good luck to those who still have to do it for a living like I did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1870142283212853671)  2024-12-20T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CSWC I got excited. I liked the CEO and am very well aware that high yield stocks almost always carry more risk than expected once you dig in. I took it from 2% to 3% so it's not a conviction long. We know that non-accruals went to 3.5% which is high and the stock reacted negatively to this. We also know that PIK income has become a subject of note as well for not just this BDC name. What I found interesting is that in the Q they state: For the three months ended September [--] [----] we had one investment for which we stopped accruing PIK interest. For the six months ended September [--] [----] we"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1870146155641770370)  2024-12-20T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Largest input cost for $GPK is nat gas. Consumer spending ok. I suspect this is why we see the weakness in the stock. I'll ride out the price catch up cycle that is coming. Will be a headwind. There is a lot of nat gas demand coming this year as I have stated in my $ET comments. What I did not add is we also have some LNG adds starting this year which will add to the upward pressure. Don't think it will get too out of control to the upside. (Nat gas that is)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1875194501175648445)  2025-01-03T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney Unfortunately they charging me $30K per year now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1876020411890274321)  2025-01-05T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@niubi1988 I would do $dlth over $cato but in th realms of things to do I wouldnt do either. Like chess investing isnt do do do. Sometimes its better not to move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1876110306113647057)  2025-01-06T03:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SIG AUR +5% comps -2% = traffic -7%. Just saying. Didn't put it on big. I'll let others decide. Looks tough right now. Still in mulling phase. Probably keep what I have on and watch the traffic data I get. Don't have much data on January. Data I have matches weaker than expected December. I will alert if I see a turn in the data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1879207187022479455)  2025-01-14T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SIG been pondering some more. Its clearly mix that got the AUR up. Its still somewhat surprising given the weakness in the diamond market its doing so well however if the mix shifted to engagement enough its not an easy read to determine the trend in engagement ring pricing. Also traffic -7% could indicate a change in opinion on the category. Anyhow. Its a wait for more data on traffic situation. I got excited on AUR being up. Its still a real interesting case study because I was in the camp that pricing would fall apart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1879560700768493617)  2025-01-15T16:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The world doesn't always do what you wan t it to do to make your move. $CBRL. the turnaround is proceeding very slowly there is no mate or strong outcome based on traffic or ticket I can see this quarter. my advice sell the $52.50 June put and stay pat. That is the best reward eyeing potential I can see (I have done this)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1881628260510892472)  2025-01-21T09:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Two stocks that are a bit tough on timing but taking a look through are $ACLS and $LYB trying to wrap my head around which one to due in depth work on. $ACLS is a take out target due to position in SiC ion implant. $LYB has a great track record in a commodity business with [--] yrs of dividend growth and not excessive leverage and a good balance sheet (Net Debt to EBITDA 2x). Both near the low end of what I believe to be their trading ranges. Very different businesses of course"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1886518165309678054)  2025-02-03T20:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I don't mention a lot of what I stay in. about 6-9 mos ago I mentioned my growth stock picks which were $SNEX $SSNC and $CPAY. I got called away on $CPAY but continue to own the other two. $SNEX knocked it out of the park again (conf call this morning). Good mgmt team and never gets a big multiplle like $IBKR. They are not as good as $IBKR however. but probably better than the current multiple. It is close to fair value but growing book at around a 15% CAGR for quite a number of years now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1887492807759192358)  2025-02-06T13:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$LYB - Well it's pretty clear that petrochems are oversupplied. What I believe is happening is - as gasoline demand declines (yes it is in decline). the refiners are looking for other places to sell oil so there has been a significant overexpansion in polyethylene production that many think will not fix for [--] years some think not until [----]. Also it's another area where China is adding too much capacity. They tend to love to do this in commodity type markets. This puts $LYB in the camp of take your time look elsewhere in the near term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1887493802220535825)  2025-02-06T13:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SNEX still no one covering this name. Conference call had I think [--] questions and then no more. Crazy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1887513419680464979)  2025-02-06T14:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ET not a great quarter. Looks like expenses running pretty hard on them recently and share count growth not a positive. The tailwind from data center is there for [--] and I think especially [--]. However total us electricity consumption may grow around 15% as a result. So 5% top line CAGR is about as good as can be expected. I think collect the dividend and maybe get a $22 exit in the next [--] years. Most of the revaluation in the stock is done. A least theres a positive backdrop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1889668689135329405)  2025-02-12T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ETSY as expected imo. A little worse than I thought. GMS and traffic to site still declining at a 5-6% rate. It's near the low of the trading range it should trade in. Their GMS came in more negative than this by a little. Should get acquired. Management out of touch with their marketplace by attempting to over automate. That's my thought anyway. Lots of mgmt turnover. Was hoping site traffic decline would moderate but so far it's kind of a steady drumbeat - 5% to -7% which they guided to. Matches what I see. I guess it's keep a little on and wait and see or exit and wait for a data turn. So"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1892229736136417593)  2025-02-19T15:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CBRL is a tough turn as well and I do expect again slightly below expectations. Businesses all looking the same slightly weaker than expected (Q4 2024) and this first quarter (Forward quarter for $CBRL) has been even tougher for consumer oriented investments due to weather and Trump uncertainty/anxiety. $CBRL also has the egg deal to contend with though I'm not sure how much it affects them. $CBRL needs to raise price more it is a cheaper value to eat breakfast there compared to McDonalds and Waffle House which seems a bit silly. $11.50 for a full breakfast. Ok so that's $3 more than sausage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1895136891252679057)  2025-02-27T15:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So far no breakdown in new home sales but I suppose it could be early if you have a bearish mindset. Here is mortgage purchase apps (white line) vs new single family home sales (blue line). It's not declining. I'm considering writing June $130 puts on $BLDR for $12 to add to my position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1899918356767269081)  2025-03-12T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I bought $AMWD today taking a 3% position for my portfolio. Last week I sold June $125 $BLDR puts for $10. So will becom 8-9% if goes below $125 was shaking a bit now looks smart but still some time. Have some $140 calls on as well Always trying to lower cost. Hopefully don't get called away. Suspect that guidance for June will end up strong for both companies. It is definitely counter to what the market seems to be thinking. Existing home sales have been weak for quite some time now and that weakness should already be in the $AMWD stock price (9 month lag existing home sales to business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1904208776615407715)  2025-03-24T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Home remodel repair and furniture businesses lag existing home sales by [--] mos. Here is the existing home sales chart. Sales are holding to up with higher interest rates. So why will business get worse It should stay flat to get better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1904209355244712187)  2025-03-24T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Also I of course understand that there are lumber tariffs. Adds $10000 to price of home. Avg existing home sales prices above average new home prices by more than $10000. People will want to move. Women like new homes (I know from experience) It's all ok. Issue with $AMWD is some Mexican manufacturing footprint but I deem it as modest risk. Higher lumber prices actually helps $BLDR so that's my opinion. Everyone think for themselves please :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1904210764467994686)  2025-03-24T16:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BLDR $AMWD new home sales were up 5% Y/Y in February. $KBH commentary was really negative. What I caution people on though is that the largest homebuilders are not a significant piece of the market. information indicates that the top [--] builders account for roughly 30% of the single family home market share It is better to be on the supplier to the homebuilder side due to the structure of the market. I have no interest in owning a homebuilder. You can build a scaled advantaged business like $BLDR or $BECN has done. Can't be accomplished on the homebuilder side imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1904555750761824442)  2025-03-25T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$KMX should do well. Used car prices bottomed recently and now they are definitely going to go up :)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1905263858752585818)  2025-03-27T14:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ETSY Web traffic was running -5-6% in Feb took a sharp leg down to -11.3% Y/Y. By contrast $EBAY has held much better at roughly flat although did dip as well to -3.5% Y/Y in February. $ETSY remains difficult. Think it will get sold at some point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1905608932963303751)  2025-03-28T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Here is a graphic of what I am looking at on $EBAY (Orange) vs $ETSY (Blue) web traffic. Not vouching for the accuracy of the data. I am still evaluating these tools"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1905612050111275321)  2025-03-28T13:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Something quite positive for bulls on $BBWI. The app data is much more positive than the website data which indicates very high brand loyalty. Here is a [--] month trend on $BBWI monthly active users on their app. and the Y/Y % change for each for the last [--] months. All the best. (Btw core website traffic remains negative). Please remember I DO NOT vouch for the numbers being correct. I am using this data to help me determine if it is correct over time. Still learning myself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1907476919987188104)  2025-04-02T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"AS y'all know I bought $CBRL $AMWD and $BLDR recently. All fails in the near time. Wish I had waited [--] weeks and I would have 12% more cash than I currently have. Both $CBRL and $AMWD are trading at P/S recession lows already $BLDR was more expensive. However all are consumer exposed. I have been challenged to determine anything that is defensive in this scenario. $GPK and $ET are the closest in my portfolio. I also still feel good about $HERDEZ . $SNEX will hang in there financially pretty good as they do a lot of commodity market stuff and I assume trading volumes continue to go through the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1908131706537722276)  2025-04-04T12:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Nate93658762 Read my posts on $BBWI . I agree you aren't missing anything other than a recession is coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1908136018223509705)  2025-04-04T12:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Today is a great day to readjust positions and exposure. I am cutting $CBRL back to 2% just by taking off what I added at cost. Don't like the risk on the retail portion of the business due to tariffs and low end consumer will be under pressure. Have to be there on valuation longer term. I was lucky enough to add to $ET yesterday as I think either way the AI build out will need electricity and gas is the most logical choice. It is a huge position for me (20%) unfortunately/fortunately depending on how you look at it. Looks like it holds $15. Struggling with whether to adjust $BLDR due to size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1909619805306466372)  2025-04-08T14:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Well here we are. Trumps tariffs are going to roll out for him to get max leverage in negotiations. He has approximately [--] months to accomplish renegotiations and remove the tariffs (my opinion). I think this is a selling opportunity in the near term as uncertainty is almost certain to come back again. If he believes these tariffs actually work we are in trouble. I watch his commentary and believe he will negotiate them off. It is a very risky move sure to cause a lot of volatility in the days ahead. Predicting the response of other countries is a difficult game to play. Either way in [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1909621433220858357)  2025-04-08T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SNEX is actually 9% due to appreciation. $HERDEZ 8%. $BLDR 5.5% due to decline and I had said I wrote $125 puts on it which I did but ripped them off at a slight profit in the market volatility. Just to make sure portfolio didn't get out of control to the downside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1909963784095252891)  2025-04-09T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"On $BLDR and $AMWD I thought they were oversold due to the lack of housing. A lot of the negative commentary coming out of Texas and Florida which makes sense but existing home sales are at about the lowest they can get. $BLDR has more risk then $AMWD (More replacement). As soon as rates came off a bit: Mortgage purchase index shot up. This is what I expected but if rates go to hell all bets are off but we will be in an equity meltdown anyways. Chart of Mortgage Purchase Index below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1911862927285788675)  2025-04-14T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$AMWD has never been cash flow negative in [--] years. Near the low end of it EV/Sales ratio. I'm not worried [--] yrs out. Lumber price same for all competitors. Factory in MX falls under USMCA rules so I think it will be fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1911865929471873455)  2025-04-14T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I revealed my portfolio a bit ago. I was out. Its tough to communicate all my moves on twitter.decided not to take low credit risk in the current environment. Also I commented previously on how all the bad loans listed in the 10-q were PIK loans. Not a good sign. I tried to communicate I was walking it back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1912368632551690514)  2025-04-16T04:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Tough cause gold is overbought. But thats where the money is fleeing to. I honestly dont have a great answer because we are heading for deflation (outside of the tariff tax) and gold is already on fire. Most things in finance need to be done ahead of time by paying attention to whats happening. If you look in my previous posts you will see I bought gold [--] months Ago and chickened out. Big mistake on my part. From here you wait for asset prices to drop (stocks and even some hard assets). And deploy your cash when the time is right. This normally is 2/3 of the way up an unemployment spike at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1912585405913759886)  2025-04-16T19:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Forgot to mention if you can find foreign investments that are good in a country that has a trade surplus (ie like Vietnam) you can benefit from the stock price and the fact that you hold the stock in that currency so you benefit from the currency appreciation of that country vs the dollar through the equity holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1912587669101769196)  2025-04-16T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Everyones watching the 10yr Donald. I dont think its saying a rate cut is in the cards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1914366070355354103)  2025-04-21T17:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FreightAlley Shortin $PCAR Great company super bad cycle coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1915231723933012076)  2025-04-24T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Well I hedged to limit my downside and I limited my upside. Thats what reducing exposure does. I hinted that I thought s&p short was dumb. Its always better to be short a losing business. $PCAR up big today too. Fortunately the way I look at it I made less money. Market is behaving like the tariffs are coming off. I dont believe we will get a rate cut. I will lick my wounds. No real big mistakes in terms of exposure. We shall see . China not negotiating. Will trump walk back the tariffs on China I dont know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1915509580853108838)  2025-04-24T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Im planning on holding my stance for a while. $SAIA blew up today. I can see the trucking black hole as it should be obvious. Why I chose $PCAR as the way to play it (probably close to the best company in the space) is beyond me. I am too jumpy and need to just keep my finger off the trigger a bit. We all make mistakes and I make a lot of em"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1915764336267493411)  2025-04-25T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"That pesky 10-yr yield went up again today. Stock market is a strong buy (not). It's clearly difficult for the govt to contain. Bessent is clearly aware as he is the one whom warned Trump that we have a fire in our dumpster"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1916944337998647448)  2025-04-28T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PCAR I shorted something that went down. wahoo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1917209058852901202)  2025-04-29T13:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Tpugh day on $GPK and $BLDR for me. $GPK I have warned higher gas will erode margins as the energy hedges roll off (energy in the form of nat gas is their highest input cost). The surprise was on the volume and trade down weakness. I have owned the stock for quite some time it is volatile but defensive in nature and well run. Trying to decide whether to add today or wait for $20 range. Not a fan of the leverage creep. After this year cap ex comes off quite a bit and you benefit from some good FCF years. Do think Suzano making moves into the US should be watched. Had a longer term target of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1917936919700447434)  2025-05-01T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm not sure who would buy them. The are the lowest cost paperboard manufacturer in the US by a good margin. Nice assets in Europe. Good management team in terms of asset allocation and understanding the market structure. It's not a very exciting name though. I was excited by penciling in $900MM in FCF per year 26-29 so even if you are right gives 50% upside to the equity. (I try to hit 52% 3yrstock price increase minimum = 15% CAGR). My cost on $GPK is $18.88. So I'm not making a lot. I'm planning to hold [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1917941565747503194)  2025-05-01T13:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Tariffs are the answer to everything. You don't like Bollywood Tariff the film industry. I have decided to impose tariffs on my next girlfriend to ensure I get my money back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1919604598748164213)  2025-05-06T04:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I'm bringing $SNEX y back. Tomorrow reports one of my biggest winners. Consistent high ROE delivery now fairly valued to slightly overvalued. This has been a home run and I don't want to sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1919875697662730728)  2025-05-06T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I hate adding oil and gas but I like the yield and the current PDP producing $DEC . This recent Maverick acquisition positions them to deliver higher FCF to debt ratios and delever while paying a big dividend. Worth a look even if it is boring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1919878042526081352)  2025-05-06T22:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MBC guides lower. Hits $AMWD. My timing on these has been pretty darn horrible. Looks like in for pain still. $BLDR next stop $87 Don't think $AMWD breaks $40. A lot of the pain in. but not fun. Worst selections this year by an easy margin for me. Mortgage Purchase Apps holding ok Existing home sales at VERY low levels. I actually think the mix of biz at $MBC is somewhat better than $AMWD (less new home build exposure). Just not good so far on timing. Businesses are fine long term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1920186041560150413)  2025-05-07T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Since Paul Levy bought $55MM of $BLDR at $111 it has marked at least a temp bottom in the stock. That was a real buy. Putting down $55MM is no joke. I think it's a good long term investment type of company. I bought too early Mortgage Purchase applications are holding in fine. Interest rates are lower than [--] months ago. We are just in an ok spot. I was buying this on the fact that we are "ok" on housing (tough on affordability). but this stock is a play on lumber bottoming. That's the other primary reason to own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1923415944556134644)  2025-05-16T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I mention I bought some $DEC on the Maverick acquisition. It's definitely a net positive for the company. Still working on it but I'm most likely going to bail. Tough to discern decline rates and the well capping/EOL (end of life) capital risk exposure too confusing and complicated for me to assess properly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1923419728607170618)  2025-05-16T16:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Let's summarize: Fed is in there buying treasuries. [--] yr rate not declining too much. Dollar has rebounded but has been weaker overall. Moody's downgrades US debt (lagging indicator according to Bessent). and I think he is right. (Does this mean it's late so it's worse now than what Moody's is implying) Predicted budget deficits are higher in non recession. Let's see what happens. The re rally should take a breather. This has been a tough whipsaw market. Still have a good chunk of cash. Still trying to figure out what to actually do. http://bit.ly/3H2TiaU http://bit.ly/3H2TiaU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1924273510098079941)  2025-05-19T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For $BLDR at least it appears they are getting some traction on their digital tools. People use of since launch in [--] having a pretty nice little ramp. http://myBLDR.com http://myBLDR.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1924823648596025660)  2025-05-20T13:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HD report of SSS -.3% consistent with Bank of America spending data and more of the same. Consumer spending +1% Y/Y. unit volume declining. People are spending under inflation but no large fall off in spending. Main risk continues to be in the government and letting rates get out of control. All the US bonds snapped upwards post "liberation day". he liberated bond yields to go higher. Here is the [--] yr and 30yr visually. The [--] yr is a clear snap up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1924866061595189570)  2025-05-20T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just another example the demand hit just hasn't come yet. Price Increases:The [----] Ford Maverick has experienced multiple price increases since its initial launch. May 2nd Increase:A significant price increase went into effect on May 2nd impacting models built after that date. Late June Arrival:These newly priced vehicles are expected to arrive at dealerships in late June. Reason for Increases:The price hikes are attributed to a mix of usual mid-year pricing adjustments and the impact of tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1930426058337071337)  2025-06-05T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Well the Challenger data came in and the employment stats today. The market reacted positively and this is correct. Things have been muddle through. Not positive but not as negative as I expected. So I have been wrong. I am frustrated of course but this game is hard. I still think Trumps overall actions have actually impeded the economy not helped it. and there are some more negatives coming on price increases. The [--] yr and [--] yr yields went up today. which there is a debate on whether this is fear or not on govt debt. but it clearly has not been a positive. . Its just meh but not as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1931080971933155409)  2025-06-06T20:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Also on $AMCR. You get 50% non US business (mix of Europe biggest unfortunately Asia and Latam). So a bit of a currency hedge as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1931089514300047653)  2025-06-06T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Biggest risk is $HD OR $LOW decided to do cabinets themselves.SKUcount too high for Chinese to enter the market so thats the basic situation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1934782898944791011)  2025-06-17T01:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The headwinds against the consumer are worsening on the margin and with a fairly weak employment report (last one) and future price increases from tariffs still coming I expect further weakening in the 2nd half. May 5th the government started more aggressive student loan collections of which as of last count roughly 25% were [--] days or more delinquent. so people will have to pay on their loans of which the average balance for 43MM people is $32000 or there abouts. Now we have oil running due to Iran/Israel and when gas goes up there is a [--] day reaction function to spending. Consumer spending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1935339270127968490)  2025-06-18T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So the housing market is trending negative in my opinion not as negative as people talk about but it is somewhat negative. There is demand imo despite the naysayers and the homebuilder confidence index: New home sales through April(waiting for May) April Good: And Mortgage Purchase Index Looks to be trending upwards: Additional commentary in next post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1935489476962259213)  2025-06-19T00:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So in summary there is no rush to own $BLDR or $AMWD think the max low for $BLDR is $85 in the next year. hoping $45 on $AMWD. I am looking to take $AMWD on incremental weakness because of the decline it is a small 1.8% for me. $BLDR I have shrunk to 4%. it is a better business so I am keeping it for now. I remain fairly heavy cash. (31%). still feels like a roll over in the 2nd half altough mild. I see no growth anywhere other than AI spend which may pull us through But longer term AI is a deflationary force as well (on labor). It's just not great to have deflationary forces when there is a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1935494688041025673)  2025-06-19T00:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$KMX at the lower end of it's recent trading range. I am tempted as I do believe tariffs will most likely bump up used starting in the second half. As of right now used pricing is up in the 1% Y/Y range and has ceased going down. Problem is the web traffic showing $CVNA taking a lot of share from $KMX (in web traffic anyhow) as shown below. Viewing it more of a trade which I do not normally do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1946263646448881930)  2025-07-18T17:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yes. Totally agree. I did not pitch this as a long term hold. If you are aggressive like me what you do is buy 5% in front of the tax loss sale timeframe. You expect it to trade down but it may not and its tough to discern how much of a discount you get. But basically if it drops 15% or more in this window I double up to a 10% position. It is generally lower risk than it sounds as long as you pick a relatively stable and cheap business. You sell between [--] and [--] hopefully. But its a great return if you hit [---] again and collect 6% dividend. This is my strategy. Obviously you do what you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1961211683105640706)  2025-08-28T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CMT management is currently excellent. They very seriously consider ROI of all decisions they make. I quiz them very extensively and have a very good relationship with Duvall panda and palomaki. I really think these individuals care are honest and are stand up individuals in general which helps me in my investing. Its just not measured on the financial ratios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1961261231097991616)  2025-08-29T02:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Its in stable businesses near [--] week lows going into tax loss selling season (last [--] weeks of September and first [--] weeks of October). This is something I try to do every year $AMCR is my poster child example this year. It does matter all these qualifiers. It is NOT a random [--] wk low guess going into tax loss sale season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1961264725318139994)  2025-08-29T03:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes. $AMCR will most likely be weak in the near term. I think longer term it is a safe income play from here (dividend yield). I believe on $GPK the more concerning commentary was surrounding the oversupply of SBS which is a structural issue that may not be easily resolved in the near term. I am hesitant to add currently (I have it at 4.5%) Remember despite the negative outlook on near term prospects for $AMCR packaging will not go away and it is a relatively stable business over time. I am waiting for the first two weeks of October to see if I get a big downdraft in the stock on tax loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/1963959404148974045)  2025-09-05T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Always important to bet on excellent CEOs. My favorites from the Roth Conference so far: $MIDD $DAR $LDL $ARIS. All these CEOs executing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/tclaugus2/status/841710005770362881)  2017-03-14T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing