[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @stevehou Steve Hou There are growing concerns about the US economy, with some suggesting that the AI capex spend is masking underlying deterioration. The economy appears to be becoming increasingly K-shaped, with the lower half struggling. Meanwhile, China is investing heavily in emerging technologies like EVs, reusable rockets, and humanoid robots. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::803639496386355200/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +173% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX +102% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::803639496386355200/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX -XX% - X Months XXXXX +133% - X Year XXXXX +30% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::803639496386355200/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.65% - X Month XXXXXX +2.50% - X Months XXXXXX +37% - X Year XXXXXX +69% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::803639496386355200/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #5847 [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [currencies](/list/currencies) #708 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [social networks](/list/social-networks) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [hou](/topic/hou) #6, [china](/topic/china) #978, [ai](/topic/ai) 7.5%, [to the](/topic/to-the) 5%, [all the](/topic/all-the) #4008, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #231, [export](/topic/export) #23, [bloomberg](/topic/bloomberg) 2.5%, [kalshi](/topic/kalshi) 2.5%, [6969](/topic/6969) XXXX% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@brad_setser](/creator/undefined) [@gdp1985](/creator/undefined) [@vkmacro](/creator/undefined) [@jonsindreu](/creator/undefined) [@stevematthews12](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@epbresearch](/creator/undefined) [@joelgombiner](/creator/undefined) [@tylermacro10](/creator/undefined) [@bigbreakfastlob](/creator/undefined) [@sdav1986](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@warrenpies](/creator/undefined) [@merrux](/creator/undefined) [@bigmagicdao](/creator/undefined) [@qcapital2020](/creator/undefined) [@arielstulberg](/creator/undefined) [@leo_abstract](/creator/undefined) [@teortaxestex](/creator/undefined) [@eigenvalue3](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Amphenol Corporation (APH)](/topic/amphenol) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "🚨Join me in person on Dec XX Thursday from 11:15 - 11:45 AM at Bloomberg Global HQ (731 Lexington Ave New York) for a discussion about we are using Bloomberg Equity Indices to drive ETF Innovation Register here:" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1993443787360944145) 2025-11-25T22:16Z 38.8K followers, 58K engagements ""We will assert and enforce a 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine." Is this a retrenchment out of necessity or a recalibration out of shrewdness Either way this seems like a big formal pivot to the US post-war (WW2 or certainly Cold War 1.0) foreign policy. What tickers" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998102132197863780) 2025-12-08T18:47Z 38.8K followers, 51.4K engagements "Just heard @tracyalloway say we spent a decade talking about Shadow banking which we now call private credit. 🤯" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998164941728108760) 2025-12-08T22:57Z 38.8K followers, 20K engagements "EA is no longer the automatic default for smart people. I was honestly shocked (and am still honestly grappling) by the fact that EA was ever the default for smart people. I honestly thought it was a silly cultish idea that SBF had invented and also perished with him" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998490162922181003) 2025-12-09T20:29Z 38.8K followers, 38.8K engagements "@SteveMatthews12 @Kalshi Limits to arbitrage" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998535061193269257) 2025-12-09T23:27Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "U.S. AI bubble will burst in five years" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997668506146308288) 2025-12-07T14:04Z 38.8K followers, 106.8K engagements "At Odd Lots XX Year Anniversary Party" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998552795449065902) 2025-12-10T00:38Z 38.8K followers, 13.2K engagements "Baumol disease is fundamentally why all the developed economies seemed unable to stop the influx of illegal immigrants. We need them to provide stagnant labor-intensive services cheaply which led to the populist backlash. People want 1) higher paying jobs for native workers to keep up with inflation 2) lower (illegal) immigration and 3) cheaper services that has become secularly bigger share of consumption with prosperity but these are inherently self-contradictory asks. As countries grow more prosperous because of Baumol disease you can have a cost of living crisis even with low inflation." [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997671837359038590) 2025-12-07T14:17Z 38.8K followers, 114K engagements "Such is the times. Some truly weird stuff is happening in China: nostalgia for Communism is surging among the youths perhaps not dissimilar to some of whats happened in the West given an embrace of the far-right isnt possible or applicable. A video commentary of the 2017 Chinese film Youth has gone viral last few days (and swiftly taken offline by censors) after the video creator recoded a 1970s military-troupe love story as an allegory for the 1976 Gang of Four coup. Faced with a slowed economy offering fewer opportunities and in fact a job crisis Chinese Gen Z are now flooding video hosting" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997999026923245928) 2025-12-08T11:57Z 38.8K followers, 126.8K engagements "Jevons paradox but for batteries" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998514152739107275) 2025-12-09T22:04Z 38.8K followers, 7462 engagements "@gdp1985 Hmm that's like saying iPhones are made in Henan China. They are still Apple's to sell" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998818128126689355) 2025-12-10T18:12Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "A non-obvious second effect of the enormous AI capex spend may be that it's masking the deterioration of the US economy under the surface. While the aggregate economic stats may look just fine economy is becoming ever more K-shaped with the lower half of th economy struggling ever more in terms of keeping up with cost of living increases young graduates struggling to find jobs and credit card and auto loan bills pilling up. The seemingly non-negotiable enormous capex spending has also an underappreciated crowding out effect on the rest of the real economy. First the AI capex drives up input" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1985130780440604869) 2025-11-02T23:43Z 38.8K followers, 1.7M engagements "The biggest opportunity that I can see at this current juncture is solar energy. Agree or disagree" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1989496173279805900) 2025-11-15T00:50Z 38.8K followers, 23.3K engagements "Im genuinely bothered by this $140k national poverty line thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99s simple arithmetic of survival is $32773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare its not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers. What this article spells out isnt really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the Baumol disease: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare education and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1993269797212074111) 2025-11-25T10:45Z 38.8K followers, 393.1K engagements "Austin isnt pretty. Way too hot in the summer. The river isnt clean. Culture and food are ok I never really got the hype" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1994823602362094032) 2025-11-29T17:39Z 38.8K followers, 168.3K engagements "Will Zohran Mamdani surprise to the upside or downside one year from now" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1995114322599571878) 2025-11-30T12:54Z 38.8K followers, 3207 engagements "Traditional finance doesnt treat volatility as always bad though It only treats uncompensated idiosyncratic volatility as bad. Systematic vol that comes with either beta or risk factor premium esp those with high expected Sharpe ratio is welcome up to personal risk tolerance I think retail chases vol through either high beta stocks or sometimes high idio vol due to a lack of access to cheap leverage and/or a demand for lotteries which trades off lower expected returns for potential high right tail returns. In the latter case thats more of a preference than irrational I guess" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1995179691045503170) 2025-11-30T17:14Z 38.8K followers, 1597 engagements "I didnt actually mean to sound pedantic. What I meant was this: say QQQ realizes XX% vol and ARKK realizes XX% vol by taking a lot of uncompensated idiosyncratic risks investors may be better off 1.5x or 2x levering up QQQ than going 1x ARKK. If a strategy has high Sharpe investors may indeed want to get twice the returns for twice the vol" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1995190701370355966) 2025-11-30T17:58Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "Im ashamed to admit but Ive become decently bullish on funny coins into the EOY. May change my mind on a dime though" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1995819804993765697) 2025-12-02T11:38Z 38.8K followers, 9053 engagements "Agree with @VKMacro here that the aggregate US economy has been very strong since 2022 in spite of mfg having been weak/recessionary this whole time. Servicesmfg and svcs has been strong. So mfg doesnt really represent the cycle. Presently US economy esp svcs has been slowing down with a clearly slowing labor market. The fact that temp hiring which apparently has been somewhat correlated at mfg strength is picking up pace could anything incl a downward substitution of labor. Temp hiring instead of full time hiring" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1996910166122320083) 2025-12-05T11:50Z 38.8K followers, 4476 engagements "Fascinating how the Scottish dominance of the British colonial trade in Southeast Asia in the 19th century almost exactly mirrors the tech startup founders in Silicon Valley today. History doesnt repeat but indeed rhymes" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997286763929423876) 2025-12-06T12:47Z 38.8K followers, 10.2K engagements "@Martyn_Lockhart Jardine Matheson" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997299245997854969) 2025-12-06T13:37Z 38.8K followers, XX engagements "@YouJiacheng Why does WeChat have such low ratings on the AppStore" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997329360412401847) 2025-12-06T15:36Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "Should the Trump administration sideline all the China policy hawks and just go ahead with selling advanced AI chips to China" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997360262651744557) 2025-12-06T17:39Z 38.8K followers, 7805 engagements "Interesting twist of fate: the largest (by a hair) holding of US Min Vol ETF is Cisco which was the darling stock of the DotCom and is again a beneficiary of the AI buildout. Also on the list are Amphenol MSFT NVDA NOW CRM. There is just no running away from the AI trade :)" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997453182398812450) 2025-12-06T23:48Z 38.8K followers, 2889 engagements "@WarrenPies Depending on the index one looks at it has decidedly broken out already :)" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997690397385167180) 2025-12-07T15:31Z 38.8K followers, 5202 engagements "@WarrenPies That's the Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Commodity Total Return index btw. :)" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997690861363265949) 2025-12-07T15:33Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "@vshih2 Sora still struggles with generating Chinese characters correctly. These are practically alien symbols. Does nano banana do a better job now Thats been the biggest tell for AI generated videos/images for me whenever Chinese characters are generated they tend to be gibberish" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997988090078478613) 2025-12-08T11:14Z 38.8K followers, 1427 engagements "@MerruX Egalitarianism" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998002978419044664) 2025-12-08T12:13Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "@bigmagicdao Which part That nostalgia for communism is returning" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998013837002293423) 2025-12-08T12:56Z 38.8K followers, 4076 engagements "Casual monday morning @TheStalwart east village sighting" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998019430622929333) 2025-12-08T13:18Z 38.8K followers, 20.5K engagements "@VKMacro Nice pun bar gold or gold bars" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998403400501747851) 2025-12-09T14:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "@qcapital2020 But you pay for Gemini pro and Amazon prime" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998442175424537079) 2025-12-09T17:18Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements "Got these two emails from @kalshi this evening. Wut" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998532181241598287) 2025-12-09T23:16Z 38.8K followers, 1505 engagements "Raise income taxes significantly on individuals making over $250k doubly so on those that could have kids but choose not to to heavily subsidize childcare. Who's in" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1993425067842179126) 2025-11-25T21:02Z 38.8K followers, 242.2K engagements "This tracks hard. I can see my (younger) self" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1997667467938697723) 2025-12-07T14:00Z 38.8K followers, 8302 engagements "Remarkable how China just keeps selling to everybody" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998168851553612237) 2025-12-08T23:12Z 38.8K followers, 19.1K engagements "Can those who say that China only manages to dominate manufacturing exports by suppressing its currency and labor costs help me make sense of these two charts" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998192061774971068) 2025-12-09T00:44Z 38.8K followers, 41.6K engagements "We are entering a low trust world. Low trust between ppl and low trust towards the govts. There will be a secular demand for decentralized "store of value"/identity/security. That's part of the demand for stuff like BTC. DeFi protocols will have value too. What are the best ones" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998376529991196854) 2025-12-09T12:57Z 38.8K followers, 6942 engagements "I want to preface by saying that I dont know anything obviously. But I dont think anyone else knows either beyond sheer speculation about the value and impact of AI. I think genAI is tremendously useful and promising but also remains deeply flawed. We are not on the verge of Terminator. All the AI maxi bros are basically either hallucinating or talking their own books by massively overestimating the timeline of progress and underestimating the efforts required to get there. They just seem to lack basic commonsense in a lot of their macro forecasts. My base case is that China will not beat the" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998790476439138323) 2025-12-10T16:22Z 38.8K followers, 24.5K engagements "Jay Powell is a great Fed chair. We'll sorely miss him when he's gone this time next year" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1998845712797413854) 2025-12-10T20:02Z 38.8K followers, 14.8K engagements "The year is 2025. The great China watcher Michael Pettis is still obsessing about currency manipulation. The RMB has appreciated against the USD and depreciated against the EUR which transitively has strongly appreciated against the USD. Chinese direct export to the US went down and to the EU went up. And lots of people seem super upset. I have no idea how the IMF is supposed to have recognized that a depreciating currency rather than manufacturing efficiency that led to Chinas growing trade surplus if they say that at all. What I do know is that if one zooms out Chinas trade surplus vs the" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1999052369544298687) 2025-12-11T09:43Z 38.8K followers, 19.8K engagements "The Times are changin again. (The Biden admin really did do some really weird stuff.)" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1999196163153510447) 2025-12-11T19:14Z 38.8K followers, 1856 engagements "I found the one sentence from the IMF "press release" that "attributes" China's growing external trade imbalance which is certainly large to CNY's valuation. Ofc it's not a serious attribution exercise whatsoever. Just a throwaway line that's vacuously true. What the IMF release certainly does not say which @michaelxpettis asserts in his thread that it does is a relative comparison of the importance of CNY valuation vs China's "manufacturing efficiency". Ofc CNY valuation is a "contributing" factor. The question is whether it's X% or 95%. It's much closer to X% than 95%" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1999199797551489149) 2025-12-11T19:29Z 38.8K followers, 7377 engagements "so your point is if the CNY had been allowed to float freely the last few years even with all the new investments and productivity gains through automation CNY appreciation would've offset it and made Chinese export less attractive as to result in no/little net gains in Chinese global export share" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1999230233749389486) 2025-12-11T21:30Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements ""am very confident that w/o a weaker CNY aggregate export outperformance v global trade would have been smaller" That's just saying demand curve slopes downward and isn't perfectly inelastic Sure question is what elasticity Fundamentally I'm not sure what we are arguing here. Clearly you aren't arguing that the surge in Chinese export share is accomplished exclusively through currency depreciation. The "manufacturing effciency" is an essential ingredient here. So I'm not really sure what we are arguing at the end of the day. The attribution/decomposition isn't clean whatsoever. Like I said" [X Link](https://x.com/stevehou/status/1999233844147306560) 2025-12-11T21:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@stevehou Steve Hou
There are growing concerns about the US economy, with some suggesting that the AI capex spend is masking underlying deterioration. The economy appears to be becoming increasingly K-shaped, with the lower half struggling. Meanwhile, China is investing heavily in emerging technologies like EVs, reusable rockets, and humanoid robots.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +173%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +102%
Mentions: XX #
- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XXX -XX%
- X Months XXXXX +133%
- X Year XXXXX +30%
Followers: XXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXX +0.65%
- X Month XXXXXX +2.50%
- X Months XXXXXX +37%
- X Year XXXXXX +69%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #5847 countries XXXX% currencies #708 travel destinations XXXX% social networks XXXX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% technology brands XXXX%
Social topic influence hou #6, china #978, ai 7.5%, to the 5%, all the #4008, inflation #231, export #23, bloomberg 2.5%, kalshi 2.5%, 6969 XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @brad_setser @gdp1985 @vkmacro @jonsindreu @stevematthews12 @kalshi @epbresearch @joelgombiner @tylermacro10 @bigbreakfastlob @sdav1986 @realroseceline @warrenpies @merrux @bigmagicdao @qcapital2020 @arielstulberg @leo_abstract @teortaxestex @eigenvalue3
Top assets mentioned Amphenol Corporation (APH)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"🚨Join me in person on Dec XX Thursday from 11:15 - 11:45 AM at Bloomberg Global HQ (731 Lexington Ave New York) for a discussion about we are using Bloomberg Equity Indices to drive ETF Innovation Register here:"
X Link 2025-11-25T22:16Z 38.8K followers, 58K engagements
""We will assert and enforce a 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine." Is this a retrenchment out of necessity or a recalibration out of shrewdness Either way this seems like a big formal pivot to the US post-war (WW2 or certainly Cold War 1.0) foreign policy. What tickers"
X Link 2025-12-08T18:47Z 38.8K followers, 51.4K engagements
"Just heard @tracyalloway say we spent a decade talking about Shadow banking which we now call private credit. 🤯"
X Link 2025-12-08T22:57Z 38.8K followers, 20K engagements
"EA is no longer the automatic default for smart people. I was honestly shocked (and am still honestly grappling) by the fact that EA was ever the default for smart people. I honestly thought it was a silly cultish idea that SBF had invented and also perished with him"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:29Z 38.8K followers, 38.8K engagements
"@SteveMatthews12 @Kalshi Limits to arbitrage"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:27Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"U.S. AI bubble will burst in five years"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:04Z 38.8K followers, 106.8K engagements
"At Odd Lots XX Year Anniversary Party"
X Link 2025-12-10T00:38Z 38.8K followers, 13.2K engagements
"Baumol disease is fundamentally why all the developed economies seemed unable to stop the influx of illegal immigrants. We need them to provide stagnant labor-intensive services cheaply which led to the populist backlash. People want 1) higher paying jobs for native workers to keep up with inflation 2) lower (illegal) immigration and 3) cheaper services that has become secularly bigger share of consumption with prosperity but these are inherently self-contradictory asks. As countries grow more prosperous because of Baumol disease you can have a cost of living crisis even with low inflation."
X Link 2025-12-07T14:17Z 38.8K followers, 114K engagements
"Such is the times. Some truly weird stuff is happening in China: nostalgia for Communism is surging among the youths perhaps not dissimilar to some of whats happened in the West given an embrace of the far-right isnt possible or applicable. A video commentary of the 2017 Chinese film Youth has gone viral last few days (and swiftly taken offline by censors) after the video creator recoded a 1970s military-troupe love story as an allegory for the 1976 Gang of Four coup. Faced with a slowed economy offering fewer opportunities and in fact a job crisis Chinese Gen Z are now flooding video hosting"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:57Z 38.8K followers, 126.8K engagements
"Jevons paradox but for batteries"
X Link 2025-12-09T22:04Z 38.8K followers, 7462 engagements
"@gdp1985 Hmm that's like saying iPhones are made in Henan China. They are still Apple's to sell"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:12Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"A non-obvious second effect of the enormous AI capex spend may be that it's masking the deterioration of the US economy under the surface. While the aggregate economic stats may look just fine economy is becoming ever more K-shaped with the lower half of th economy struggling ever more in terms of keeping up with cost of living increases young graduates struggling to find jobs and credit card and auto loan bills pilling up. The seemingly non-negotiable enormous capex spending has also an underappreciated crowding out effect on the rest of the real economy. First the AI capex drives up input"
X Link 2025-11-02T23:43Z 38.8K followers, 1.7M engagements
"The biggest opportunity that I can see at this current juncture is solar energy. Agree or disagree"
X Link 2025-11-15T00:50Z 38.8K followers, 23.3K engagements
"Im genuinely bothered by this $140k national poverty line thing. The biggest ticket item in @profplum99s simple arithmetic of survival is $32773 childcare. If you are paying that much for childcare its not really a case of poverty as much as socioeconomic policy failure esp labor policy in dense urban centers. What this article spells out isnt really a poverty or even inflation problem but a textbook case of the Baumol disease: the labor intensive low productivity services sectors like childcare education and healthcare go up sharply in costs even as the real prices manufactured goods and"
X Link 2025-11-25T10:45Z 38.8K followers, 393.1K engagements
"Austin isnt pretty. Way too hot in the summer. The river isnt clean. Culture and food are ok I never really got the hype"
X Link 2025-11-29T17:39Z 38.8K followers, 168.3K engagements
"Will Zohran Mamdani surprise to the upside or downside one year from now"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:54Z 38.8K followers, 3207 engagements
"Traditional finance doesnt treat volatility as always bad though It only treats uncompensated idiosyncratic volatility as bad. Systematic vol that comes with either beta or risk factor premium esp those with high expected Sharpe ratio is welcome up to personal risk tolerance I think retail chases vol through either high beta stocks or sometimes high idio vol due to a lack of access to cheap leverage and/or a demand for lotteries which trades off lower expected returns for potential high right tail returns. In the latter case thats more of a preference than irrational I guess"
X Link 2025-11-30T17:14Z 38.8K followers, 1597 engagements
"I didnt actually mean to sound pedantic. What I meant was this: say QQQ realizes XX% vol and ARKK realizes XX% vol by taking a lot of uncompensated idiosyncratic risks investors may be better off 1.5x or 2x levering up QQQ than going 1x ARKK. If a strategy has high Sharpe investors may indeed want to get twice the returns for twice the vol"
X Link 2025-11-30T17:58Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"Im ashamed to admit but Ive become decently bullish on funny coins into the EOY. May change my mind on a dime though"
X Link 2025-12-02T11:38Z 38.8K followers, 9053 engagements
"Agree with @VKMacro here that the aggregate US economy has been very strong since 2022 in spite of mfg having been weak/recessionary this whole time. Servicesmfg and svcs has been strong. So mfg doesnt really represent the cycle. Presently US economy esp svcs has been slowing down with a clearly slowing labor market. The fact that temp hiring which apparently has been somewhat correlated at mfg strength is picking up pace could anything incl a downward substitution of labor. Temp hiring instead of full time hiring"
X Link 2025-12-05T11:50Z 38.8K followers, 4476 engagements
"Fascinating how the Scottish dominance of the British colonial trade in Southeast Asia in the 19th century almost exactly mirrors the tech startup founders in Silicon Valley today. History doesnt repeat but indeed rhymes"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:47Z 38.8K followers, 10.2K engagements
"@Martyn_Lockhart Jardine Matheson"
X Link 2025-12-06T13:37Z 38.8K followers, XX engagements
"@YouJiacheng Why does WeChat have such low ratings on the AppStore"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:36Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"Should the Trump administration sideline all the China policy hawks and just go ahead with selling advanced AI chips to China"
X Link 2025-12-06T17:39Z 38.8K followers, 7805 engagements
"Interesting twist of fate: the largest (by a hair) holding of US Min Vol ETF is Cisco which was the darling stock of the DotCom and is again a beneficiary of the AI buildout. Also on the list are Amphenol MSFT NVDA NOW CRM. There is just no running away from the AI trade :)"
X Link 2025-12-06T23:48Z 38.8K followers, 2889 engagements
"@WarrenPies Depending on the index one looks at it has decidedly broken out already :)"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:31Z 38.8K followers, 5202 engagements
"@WarrenPies That's the Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Commodity Total Return index btw. :)"
X Link 2025-12-07T15:33Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"@vshih2 Sora still struggles with generating Chinese characters correctly. These are practically alien symbols. Does nano banana do a better job now Thats been the biggest tell for AI generated videos/images for me whenever Chinese characters are generated they tend to be gibberish"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:14Z 38.8K followers, 1427 engagements
"@MerruX Egalitarianism"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:13Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"@bigmagicdao Which part That nostalgia for communism is returning"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:56Z 38.8K followers, 4076 engagements
"Casual monday morning @TheStalwart east village sighting"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:18Z 38.8K followers, 20.5K engagements
"@VKMacro Nice pun bar gold or gold bars"
X Link 2025-12-09T14:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"@qcapital2020 But you pay for Gemini pro and Amazon prime"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:18Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
"Got these two emails from @kalshi this evening. Wut"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:16Z 38.8K followers, 1505 engagements
"Raise income taxes significantly on individuals making over $250k doubly so on those that could have kids but choose not to to heavily subsidize childcare. Who's in"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:02Z 38.8K followers, 242.2K engagements
"This tracks hard. I can see my (younger) self"
X Link 2025-12-07T14:00Z 38.8K followers, 8302 engagements
"Remarkable how China just keeps selling to everybody"
X Link 2025-12-08T23:12Z 38.8K followers, 19.1K engagements
"Can those who say that China only manages to dominate manufacturing exports by suppressing its currency and labor costs help me make sense of these two charts"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:44Z 38.8K followers, 41.6K engagements
"We are entering a low trust world. Low trust between ppl and low trust towards the govts. There will be a secular demand for decentralized "store of value"/identity/security. That's part of the demand for stuff like BTC. DeFi protocols will have value too. What are the best ones"
X Link 2025-12-09T12:57Z 38.8K followers, 6942 engagements
"I want to preface by saying that I dont know anything obviously. But I dont think anyone else knows either beyond sheer speculation about the value and impact of AI. I think genAI is tremendously useful and promising but also remains deeply flawed. We are not on the verge of Terminator. All the AI maxi bros are basically either hallucinating or talking their own books by massively overestimating the timeline of progress and underestimating the efforts required to get there. They just seem to lack basic commonsense in a lot of their macro forecasts. My base case is that China will not beat the"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:22Z 38.8K followers, 24.5K engagements
"Jay Powell is a great Fed chair. We'll sorely miss him when he's gone this time next year"
X Link 2025-12-10T20:02Z 38.8K followers, 14.8K engagements
"The year is 2025. The great China watcher Michael Pettis is still obsessing about currency manipulation. The RMB has appreciated against the USD and depreciated against the EUR which transitively has strongly appreciated against the USD. Chinese direct export to the US went down and to the EU went up. And lots of people seem super upset. I have no idea how the IMF is supposed to have recognized that a depreciating currency rather than manufacturing efficiency that led to Chinas growing trade surplus if they say that at all. What I do know is that if one zooms out Chinas trade surplus vs the"
X Link 2025-12-11T09:43Z 38.8K followers, 19.8K engagements
"The Times are changin again. (The Biden admin really did do some really weird stuff.)"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:14Z 38.8K followers, 1856 engagements
"I found the one sentence from the IMF "press release" that "attributes" China's growing external trade imbalance which is certainly large to CNY's valuation. Ofc it's not a serious attribution exercise whatsoever. Just a throwaway line that's vacuously true. What the IMF release certainly does not say which @michaelxpettis asserts in his thread that it does is a relative comparison of the importance of CNY valuation vs China's "manufacturing efficiency". Ofc CNY valuation is a "contributing" factor. The question is whether it's X% or 95%. It's much closer to X% than 95%"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:29Z 38.8K followers, 7377 engagements
"so your point is if the CNY had been allowed to float freely the last few years even with all the new investments and productivity gains through automation CNY appreciation would've offset it and made Chinese export less attractive as to result in no/little net gains in Chinese global export share"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:30Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements
""am very confident that w/o a weaker CNY aggregate export outperformance v global trade would have been smaller" That's just saying demand curve slopes downward and isn't perfectly inelastic Sure question is what elasticity Fundamentally I'm not sure what we are arguing here. Clearly you aren't arguing that the surge in Chinese export share is accomplished exclusively through currency depreciation. The "manufacturing effciency" is an essential ingredient here. So I'm not really sure what we are arguing at the end of the day. The attribution/decomposition isn't clean whatsoever. Like I said"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:44Z 38.8K followers, XXX engagements