# ![@sminston_with Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::21353774.png) @sminston_with Sminston With 👁

Sminston With 👁 posts on X about bitcoin, cycle, in the, business the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::21353774/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::21353774/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] -17%
- [--] Month [---------] +76%
- [--] Months [---------] +122%
- [--] Year [----------] +535%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::21353774/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::21353774/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -4.50%
- [--] Month [---] +64%
- [--] Months [---] +203%
- [--] Year [---] +419%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::21353774/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::21353774/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +0.47%
- [--] Month [------] +13%
- [--] Months [------] +80%
- [--] Year [------] +257%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::21353774/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::21353774/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #2103 [finance](/list/finance)  29.25% [stocks](/list/stocks)  3.4% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.72% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2.04% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.36% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.36%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #907, [cycle](/topic/cycle) #553, [in the](/topic/in-the) 12.24%, [business](/topic/business) #3656, [we are](/topic/we-are) 8.84%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 8.16%, [bull](/topic/bull) #852, [if you](/topic/if-you) 6.8%, [gold](/topic/gold) 6.12%, [retirement](/topic/retirement) 6.12%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@therealplanc](/creator/undefined) [@dotkrueger](/creator/undefined) [@mrmpodcast](/creator/undefined) [@davids_sarcasm](/creator/undefined) [@10xroe](/creator/undefined) [@afkumono](/creator/undefined) [@sminstonwith](/creator/undefined) [@tonyseverinocmt](/creator/undefined) [@giovann35084111](/creator/undefined) [@stumitchell60](/creator/undefined) [@intocryptoverse](/creator/undefined) [@mjstacking](/creator/undefined) [@bitcoinnewscom](/creator/undefined) [@gstradingteam](/creator/undefined) [@yoespat](/creator/undefined) [@mich__ele](/creator/undefined) [@superbitcoinbro](/creator/undefined) [@reisoleil](/creator/undefined) [@thebitassets](/creator/undefined) [@shan_specter](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Written in collaboration with Plan C (@TheRealPlanC) *Not financial advice* Key Takeaways First systematic analysis of the relationship between Bitcoin's price oscillations and the business cycle http://x.com/i/article/2014816654325391360 http://x.com/i/article/2014816654325391360"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118)  2026-01-28T16:58Z 44.1K followers, 486.7K engagements


"The Support Line visual is illuminating in slightly different ways. I like this version. Bitcoin Price ISM PMI The evolution of Business Cycle -- Bitcoin Cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021028125199728688)  2026-02-10T01:07Z 44.1K followers, 45.6K engagements


"😤BULL RUNS: BTC follows Gold anon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2011148322934063137)  2026-01-13T18:48Z 44.1K followers, 270.6K engagements


"Bitcoin Uncharted - the weekly show - Ep. [--] dropped 👇🏻 https://x.com/i/status/2014029322378441053 🚨 Bitcoin Uncharted: Episode [--] 🚨 @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with and I break down: ❓Bull / Bear Market ⚡ Power Law dynamics Gold vs Bitcoin 🌍 Macro + market fear Don't miss it 👇 https://t.co/PCwnJ470lo https://t.co/zxxjg643CX https://x.com/i/status/2014029322378441053 🚨 Bitcoin Uncharted: Episode [--] 🚨 @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with and I break down: ❓Bull / Bear Market ⚡ Power Law dynamics Gold vs Bitcoin 🌍 Macro + market fear Don't miss it 👇 https://t.co/PCwnJ470lo https://t.co/zxxjg643CX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2014033136682750319)  2026-01-21T17:51Z 44.1K followers, 10.9K engagements


"Just released my first-ever article - co-authored with my wonderfully talented analyst friend Plan C. "How the Business Cycle Quickly Became the Bitcoin Cycle" I hope you enjoy 👇 https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016558229636206791)  2026-01-28T17:05Z 44.1K followers, 11.8K engagements


"I urge you once again to take a look at the latest evidence the Business cycle became = the Bitcoin cycle early on. Forget Halvings. Ready yourself for more statistical rigor than you're used to finding in an X article by me and Plan C 👇🏻 https://x.com/i/status/2016556592561574118 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas https://x.com/i/status/2016556592561574118 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016671837380616435)  2026-01-29T00:36Z 44.1K followers, 17.2K engagements


"Where is the emotion at for Bitcoin Tell me👇🏻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2017263339291000893)  2026-01-30T15:47Z 44K followers, [----] engagements


"We may be seeing the turnaround here. https://x.com/i/status/2017289022544994553 Chicago PMI came in at [--] ISM shows the US business cycle Above [--] = expansion Below [--] = contraction Every major Bitcoin bull market aligned with ISM turning up Not a [--] year cycle https://t.co/TGKiDI7KiH https://x.com/i/status/2017289022544994553 Chicago PMI came in at [--] ISM shows the US business cycle Above [--] = expansion Below [--] = contraction Every major Bitcoin bull market aligned with ISM turning up Not a [--] year cycle https://t.co/TGKiDI7KiH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2017289488582775236)  2026-01-30T17:31Z 44K followers, 12K engagements


"ISM Manufacturing PMI explains 51% of Bitcoin's price movements since [----]. Next month PMI is projected to go much higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2017341878702932205)  2026-01-30T20:59Z 44K followers, 17.9K engagements


"Watch AI agents be the cause of the next Bitcoin blow-off top 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2017678138143314237)  2026-01-31T19:15Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Base case: Little lower through Q1 or stagnant. Q2 bounce PMI makes big jump initial climb toward parabola. New ATHs Q3-4. Talking $200-300k. Could be wrong. If wrong: see power law trend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2017757877335912766)  2026-02-01T00:32Z 44.1K followers, 30.6K engagements


"I'll call this a bear market. Buckle up for pain. Bring it on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018180973398208921)  2026-02-02T04:33Z 44.1K followers, 13.6K engagements


"I know you guys all think to yourselves "As my quant I wonder who HIS quant is" 🤔 This is your quant's quant: https://x.com/i/status/2018042138466906217 With Bitcoin at $77000 I figure the buyers come in all at once to move it backt to $82000 https://x.com/i/status/2018042138466906217 With Bitcoin at $77000 I figure the buyers come in all at once to move it backt to $82000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018311644317884493)  2026-02-02T13:12Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"The ISM PMI has been slowly trending up for the past [--] years and just JUMPED to a whopping 52.6%. 🔥 Once PMI climbs to these levels it tends to have momentum. *There can be noise with this metric but WATCH [----] for CONTINUED EXPANSION* and historically correlated BTC price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018363090291847561)  2026-02-02T16:37Z 44.1K followers, 111.2K engagements


"Review the recent PMI / BTC article by me and Plan C for more context: https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2016556592561574118s=20 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018363093336879155)  2026-02-02T16:37Z 44.1K followers, 25.6K engagements


"@TheRealPlanC Yes me and Jim Cramer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018413965512970402)  2026-02-02T19:59Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@brett_eth @TheRealPlanC Promising timing is one thing- bad idea. But just because their prediction of WHEN the banana zone/whatever failed doesn't mean the correlation of BTC/PMI doesn't exist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018496466998731044)  2026-02-03T01:27Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Lot of good activity around Bitcoin/ business cycle correlation today since the big [--] breakout. Wish @intocryptoverse would get on board the giant he is. I find it hard to believe he would have honest reason to push back if he closely examined the data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018504535048601936)  2026-02-03T01:59Z 44.1K followers, 10.5K engagements


"Tune in TOMORROW for Bitcoin Uncharted with me Plan C and Mr. M (our weekly Bitcoin show). Don't miss out lot's were covering this week https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018758569911374104 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018758569911374104"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2018758569911374104)  2026-02-03T18:48Z 44.1K followers, 11.3K engagements


"Google Trends for "Bitcoin" EXPLODING 💥 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019864362438074807)  2026-02-06T20:02Z 44.1K followers, 44.1K engagements


"Google Trend spikes are a critical precondition for Bitcoin bull runs That is happening now. Time to pay attention because others are . 👁 https://x.com/i/status/1938644736304414970 Do "Bitcoin" Google searches indicate where we are in the cycle - - - The two are absolutely correlated: Max Correlation= [----] Lag [--] days (very short lag of price after searches) Here we're seeing the monthly price and estimated monthly Google searches for "Bitcoin" https://t.co/gUNF0Af2Sy https://x.com/i/status/1938644736304414970 Do "Bitcoin" Google searches indicate where we are in the cycle - - - The two are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019879748428787756)  2026-02-06T21:03Z 44.2K followers, 25.5K engagements


"@TonySeverinoCMT Data means absolutely nothing without correct methods and interpretation. And it helps if n [--] This is not a good method or interpretation $35k Bitcoin while technically possible is extremely statistically unlikely in October this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019951393260597269)  2026-02-07T01:48Z 43.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@TonySeverinoCMT So you took [--] months to remove the "The Bull" from your profile name"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019958590191333837)  2026-02-07T02:17Z 44.1K followers, [---] engagements


"@andy_surfie @dotkrueger How can you say that with such certainty (The first two claims)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019992476967379131)  2026-02-07T04:31Z 43.9K followers, [---] engagements


"@TheRealPlanC I don't think people understand how mathematically unlikely it is to see 30k or 50k in Oct [----] 😅 🤝🏻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020209499941015853)  2026-02-07T18:54Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@hillery_dan Yeah people somehow (somehow wayyy too many "intelligent" people) were very quick to straw man with "because we broke slightly above [--] we should now be instantly mooning" Some genuine misunderstanding while much is probably [--] year cycle timing bias + bus cycle denial"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020487442239811762)  2026-02-08T13:18Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheRealPlanC Nice work C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020532325197750647)  2026-02-08T16:17Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Bookmark and give a read today. Power law governs Bitcoin support stable for over [--] years. https://x.com/i/status/2020529448013947238 Bitcoin Quantile Model How stable is the 1st Quantile floor I did a deep dive. INSANE RESULTS [---] weekly fits over the last [--] years to see how much the slope changed. The answer is essentially zero change for [--] years. The same underlying mathematical pattern that https://t.co/FbjLq2786a https://x.com/i/status/2020529448013947238 Bitcoin Quantile Model How stable is the 1st Quantile floor I did a deep dive. INSANE RESULTS [---] weekly fits over the last 10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020532508082028927)  2026-02-08T16:17Z 44.1K followers, 19.7K engagements


"Fred correctly points out this is impractical for now. This is why we use Bitcoin the most honest you can get aside from transacting in energy itself. 🔋⚡🔌 https://x.com/i/status/2020533456992977084 @sminston_with you can't use massive energy without massive batteries. https://x.com/i/status/2020533456992977084 @sminston_with you can't use massive energy without massive batteries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020535611115905429)  2026-02-08T16:30Z 44.2K followers, [----] engagements


"@TheRealPlanC Keep up the 🔥 work Need to discuss this in Bitcoin Uncharted this week @MrMPodcast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020538538517786793)  2026-02-08T16:41Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"(2/2) 🧵 Taken from Figure [--]. in our article "How the Business Cycle Quickly Became the Bitcoin Cycle" notice how the Spearman r2 rose dramatically leading up to the 2nd Halving indicating the looseness or tightness of the economy had become a more dominant driving force for Bitcoin 'bubble's' from that point on. Also notice how the correlation fluctuates typically trending down temporarily until a new cycle ATH is reached to then continue upward as a long-term trend. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885175190827506 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885175190827506"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020885175190827506)  2026-02-09T15:39Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Finally some good news. This is my quant (Cramer) https://x.com/i/status/2020860650101092681 🦏 WE GOT JUST WHAT BITCOIN NEEDED - A BEARISH JIM CRAMER "We know nothing about this volatile thing Bitcoin. I used to think it could be a currency that's not obviously not gonna happen. It's a great speculative asset I guess until it started plummeting." https://t.co/B45ugSJdqg https://x.com/i/status/2020860650101092681 🦏 WE GOT JUST WHAT BITCOIN NEEDED - A BEARISH JIM CRAMER "We know nothing about this volatile thing Bitcoin. I used to think it could be a currency that's not obviously not gonna"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020892888071376961)  2026-02-09T16:09Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Make Bitcoin Pumpable Again https://x.com/i/status/2020908389132324938 Bitcoin is not pumpable right now. In [----] $10B in cash could create $26B in BTC book value. In [----] $308B flowed in yet the market cap fell $98B. Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier effect. MSTR and DATs won't work until it becomes pumpable again. https://t.co/T8NZHio4H9 https://x.com/i/status/2020908389132324938 Bitcoin is not pumpable right now. In [----] $10B in cash could create $26B in BTC book value. In [----] $308B flowed in yet the market cap fell $98B. Selling pressure is too heavy for any multiplier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020923656642363437)  2026-02-09T18:12Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


""How the Business Cycle Quickly Became the Bitcoin Cycle" https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021028125199728688s=20 The Support Line visual is illuminating in slightly different ways. I like this version. Bitcoin Price ISM PMI The evolution of Business Cycle -- Bitcoin Cycle https://t.co/NYTKumcfQV https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021028125199728688s=20 The Support Line visual is illuminating in slightly different ways. I like this version. Bitcoin Price ISM PMI The evolution of Business Cycle -- Bitcoin Cycle https://t.co/NYTKumcfQV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021028417995788564)  2026-02-10T01:08Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Don't miss Bitcoin Uncharted tomorrow. It's gonna be gangster"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021233128149483532)  2026-02-10T14:41Z 44.1K followers, 10K engagements


"How the Business Cycle Quickly Became the Bitcoin Cycle https://x.com/i/status/2016556592561574118 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas https://x.com/i/status/2016556592561574118 https://t.co/7yYeBODEas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021259915679961392)  2026-02-10T16:28Z 44.1K followers, 16.3K engagements


"It is useful because it explains that there is not something broken with a Bitcoin- the disappointing gains from this "cycle" can be explained by a lack of appropriate economic conditions which many still don't believe. That is valuable. And it steers people away from merely believing in a [--] year cycle which has largely been coincidental. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021280585608810633 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021280585608810633"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021280585608810633)  2026-02-10T17:50Z 44.1K followers, [---] engagements


"@intocryptoverse Wouldn't this narrative be shattered if this year or next year we went parabolic to a new ATH before a subsequent 80-90% crash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021297167432847663)  2026-02-10T18:56Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Today's Bitcoin Uncharted episode is UP Give it a watch and follow us for weekly episodes 💥 👇🏻 https://x.com/i/status/2021577374232404185 🚨 Bitcoin Uncharted: Episode [--] 🚨 @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with and I sat down to ignore the noise and look at the math: 📉 Navigating Macro Fear 📊 What the Quantile Model really says 🎯 Is the bottom actually in The Entire Bull Run Hinges Here👇 https://t.co/fXAtMkjG5d https://t.co/OXVmaxOmUZ https://x.com/i/status/2021577374232404185 🚨 Bitcoin Uncharted: Episode [--] 🚨 @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with and I sat down to ignore the noise and look at the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021579663730975037)  2026-02-11T13:38Z 44.1K followers, 13.2K engagements


"@MICH__ELE @MrMPodcast @TheRealPlanC Wrong about what exactly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021800270775427425)  2026-02-12T04:15Z 44.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Feb [--] [----] . $70000 / coin Keep saving in BTC and you'll get to keep riding this rainbow. The bull runs atop it are just bonuses. I sure wouldn't bet against this kind of support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2022705120862195959)  2026-02-14T16:10Z 44.1K followers, 19.5K engagements


"Here's the BTC support stats 📊 The drop yesterday swiftly took us below the 3rd %ile just scraping $60k before having a healthy bounce back up to what is now $67.4k almost exactly the 5th %ile. We should keep experiencing greater "strength" of support the lower we go. - - - For example we did actually briefly drop below the 1st %ile at the bottom in [----] - but the average time spent below that level is only [---] days out of the year. We've officially punched into the support rainbow - now you can NOT tell me we aren't right near the bottom if we aren't already there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019774059253309587)  2026-02-06T14:03Z 44.1K followers, 330.1K engagements


"Bitcoin vs. Business Cycle. might be worth paying attention to. 🔍 The correlation was locked by [----] and it's been strengthening ever since. This is an overlay of the PMI onto Bitcoin's power law trend for better visualization. (1/2) 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020885172225458673)  2026-02-09T15:39Z 44.1K followers, 181.5K engagements


"Bitcoin Support Update - - - Soon we should be "Somewhere over the rainbow." 🌈 At $69130 we are currently sitting at about the 6.6th percentile (power law quantile regression). Bitcoin's price has spent less than [---] days below this level in all [----] days of existence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2022380809890730425)  2026-02-13T18:42Z 44.1K followers, 20.8K engagements


"Long-term the AI explosion is Bullish for Bitcoin Bearish for Bitcoin IDK Bullish for Bitcoin Bearish for Bitcoin IDK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2023153711024062872)  2026-02-15T21:53Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin Support Update - - - Soon we should be "Somewhere over the rainbow." 🌈 At $69130 we are currently sitting at about the 6.6th percentile (power law quantile regression). Bitcoin's price has spent less than [---] days below this level in all [----] days of existence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2022380376338182553)  2026-02-13T18:40Z 44.1K followers, [---] engagements


"People are seeing this chart and either Crying that it's all over or Jumping excitedly on a 1x/lifetime opportunity. Which are you https://x.com/i/status/2014423283702366418 Checking in on Bitcoin's power law in GOLD 💰🪙 - - - This is seriously a historic 'Black Swan' for the BTC/Gold ratio. Whether we are experiencing a precious metal bubble soon to pop or a true transition of the monetary order (a la Ray Dalio) next moves imply huge BTC gains. https://t.co/vFTJ9OkWmk https://x.com/i/status/2014423283702366418 Checking in on Bitcoin's power law in GOLD 💰🪙 - - - This is seriously a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2014440982453092472)  2026-01-22T20:52Z 44.1K followers, 19.4K engagements


"My take: M2/liquidity has been presented incorrectly when in fact it's a sort of spurious correlation. IWM / PMI - not enough time has passed to judge 4/5 year cycle stuff- not enough time has passed to judge Metal rotation - not enough time BTC / GOLD - this wasn't meant to show an imminent bullish turnaround but more to show we were closed to a bottom than a top Just my opinion Love your work https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019924349256700178 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019924349256700178"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019924349256700178)  2026-02-07T00:01Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@Giovann35084111 Give it time. PMI too low still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2019965059712315711)  2026-02-07T02:42Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"I think by end of this year we'll be running up a BTC bull run. A bull run peak probably sometime between end of [----] and mid-2027"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020198222011187602)  2026-02-07T18:09Z 44.1K followers, 32.9K engagements


"The most honest and pure currency is energy. Joules. Kilowatt-hours. BTUs. Change my mind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020532166967640168)  2026-02-08T16:16Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"You've got low interest rates coming up PMI spiking metals at historic highs AND a bullish inverse Cramer. .and you're thinking about SELLING"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2020926159505248590)  2026-02-09T18:21Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"@Giovann35084111 Correction: PMI has *only* exhibited *roughly* [--] year periodicity since Bitcoin's Genesis. I know it is frustrating that without the [--] year cycle the bubbles are unpredictable. But they never really made sense the business cycle makes sense of them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2021274954059350474)  2026-02-10T17:27Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Do "Bitcoin" Google searches indicate where we are in the cycle - - - The two are absolutely correlated: Max Correlation= [----] Lag [--] days (very short lag of price after searches) Here we're seeing the monthly price and estimated monthly Google searches for "Bitcoin" (arbitrary values; they are likely not accurate in the absolute sense but the correlation between both metrics are the same - here I used 185M searches between May-June 2021). The resulting log-residuals plots when fitting a power law to the bottom 50% of the data for each shows we are: a. crab-crawling with price b. not seeing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938644736304414970)  2025-06-27T17:04Z 44.1K followers, 72.2K engagements


"Checking in on Bitcoin's power law in GOLD 💰🪙 - - - This is seriously a historic 'Black Swan' for the BTC/Gold ratio. Whether we are experiencing a precious metal bubble soon to pop or a true transition of the monetary order (a la Ray Dalio) next moves imply huge BTC gains. - - - The current quantile is approximately [----] (0.0000000001%); illustrated by how far we've dropped below that 1% line. This is how rare and unlikely BTC's price in gold is to far this low - a true outlier. Either the implied price shoots up to its 50th- 95th level ($200k-300k range) due to gold's current value OR the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2014423283702366418)  2026-01-22T19:41Z 44.1K followers, 390.7K engagements


"Get. Your Bitcoin. Off. The exchange. *Not financial advice* https://x.com/i/status/2022063272455717226 🚨 BREAKING: MASSIVE DISRUPTION REPORTED ON COINBASE USERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO BUY SELL OR TRANSFER CRYPTO AS CORE SERVICES EXPERIENCE OUTAGES. WHATS REALLY HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES https://t.co/muFICDPpwh https://x.com/i/status/2022063272455717226 🚨 BREAKING: MASSIVE DISRUPTION REPORTED ON COINBASE USERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO BUY SELL OR TRANSFER CRYPTO AS CORE SERVICES EXPERIENCE OUTAGES. WHATS REALLY HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES https://t.co/muFICDPpwh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2022071042223878521)  2026-02-12T22:11Z 44.1K followers, 10.1K engagements


"Short-term the AI explosion is Bullish for Bitcoin Bearish for Bitcoin IDK Bullish for Bitcoin Bearish for Bitcoin IDK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2023153853613666522)  2026-02-15T21:54Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"#Bitcoin power law Scale coefficient and r2 update The power law has become measurably more accurate even since the last cycle peak - - - This set of plots is showing both since the peak in November [----]. The r2 as we've seen has been trending upward for years. Since November 10th [----] it has increased by almost 1% now at [------] from [------]. Remember - r2 (the square of the correlation coefficient) tells you the proportion of the data that is explainable by the model (in this case the power law). The scale coefficient (b) has dropped slightly but it has remained stable for years with minor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1842573523832774685)  2024-10-05T14:32Z 44.1K followers, 35.2K engagements


"MSTR is in a bubble. Plots are showing BTC vs. MSTR price since the date @saylor began adding BTC to his company's balance sheet (Aug [--] 2020) (left) and projected out to a $200k BTC (right). MSTR price regressed onto BTC price shows an R2 = [----] as an exponential function. I'm not a MSTR hater but- if you're in it now you're in a bubble and here are some things we can say about it logically: [--]. Exponentials in asset price data can mean two things: a) the exponential has a slow gradual scale coefficient and the thing won't go vertical for a very long time (see gold S&P and also therefore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1845850272548979099)  2024-10-14T15:32Z 44.1K followers, 69.7K engagements


"New look for the Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator Oct. [--] [----] Still loading and currently at.25.1% Current price: $67134 - - - Showing [----] zoomed-in with this morning's hourly BTC price highlighted and projecting out what the modeled upper bound and lower bound are to this day to this hour along with each 10th percentile from bottom to top. In other words in this hour the lower bound/support is $41349 and if we magically shot up to the model's ceiling today it would max out at $144007. $67134 is 25.1% of that range. *Note - these number continuously go up from hour-to-hour which is why many"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846944700982591535)  2024-10-17T16:01Z 44.1K followers, 29.6K engagements


"Sometimes linear axes just do better at showing just how much higher we're going. Just look how much further we have to go according to the Decay Channel model Depending on the regression method used linear vs nonlinear the upper bound of decay looks to be either $199106 or $207623 on January 1st [----]. Even with this much decay this is bullish Linear regression and nonlinear regression are two different approaches with pros and cons of their own; so the area between gives a small *band* of possibilities for analysts' own judgment. I reason that this is probably even a worst case because: it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848386767780495810)  2024-10-21T15:32Z 44.1K followers, 47.4K engagements


"Wow $80k is here 🔥🔥🔥 Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator Nov. 10th [----] - - - Still loading and currently at.32.8% Current price: $79800 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855630462838079977 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1855630462838079977"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1855630462838079977)  2024-11-10T15:15Z 44.1K followers, 57K engagements


"Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator Nov. [--] [----] - - - Still loading and currently at.43.7% Current price: $92474 Long way up to go still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856763957132103717)  2024-11-13T18:19Z 44.1K followers, 23.4K engagements


"Might need to update this to accommodate @maxkeiser 's new $2.2M call Everything going to zero against Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1865817585713074635)  2024-12-08T17:55Z 44.1K followers, 27.8K engagements


"We're not near the top folks - - - White band = most likely range of top (current thinking) - based on #decaychannelmodel wherein the decay asymptote = [----] vs [----] power law model ultimately. Looking like between $175k - 230k depending on when we arrive at the top"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1870171444719825314)  2024-12-20T18:16Z 44.1K followers, 13.5K engagements


"100000 simulations of random buy and sell dates across Bitcoin's history along with each of their realized return during that same holding time - broken up into four 4-year eras. We are reaching a point where if you bought BTC during the last [--] years and held for nearly that long you've at least 2x'd your investment on average (many have far exceeded that). Almost no one in the last [--] years with maximum holding time is in the red. If you'd bought during the low of the last [--] years and held [---] years you'd be over 600% in profit now. The data tends to follow a power law for each era"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1874978781200588838)  2025-01-03T00:39Z 44.1K followers, 20.3K engagements


"Both online and IRL the question I continue to hear the most is "How much Bitcoin should I get" I've spent some time putting a visual guide together that has helped some people close to me set stacking targets based on when they expect to retire. I hope this can also be helpful to you or the people you care about. - - - How it works: 1) Decide the age at which you would hypothetically retirethe point at which you could live off it for the rest of your life if necessary (not that you'd actually want to sell it). There are groups of lines that represent retirement ages [--] [--] [--] [--] and [--] for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877036286982373662)  2025-01-08T16:54Z 44.1K followers, 223K engagements


"Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator Jan. 13th [----] - - - Still loading and currently at.39.6% Current price: $91623 In the midst of this bull run we're now seeing a correction (on the way to the top). while we had previously broken through 50% making a run at 60% the $108000 mark proved a little more difficult to break through in the short term. So further consolidation can now continue on the way up. Did we hit the top already Look at the red regions/historical tops - it would be a complete anomaly if so. We've got more juice to squeeze. 😎"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878885634464727483)  2025-01-13T19:23Z 44.1K followers, 32.5K engagements


"Sminston's Bitcoin Retirement Guide (Part Deux): Retirement Year Again helping to answer the question of "How much Bitcoin should I get" A thread 🧵👇 . . . Instructions to use this version: 1) Find the chart in the replies (below) that corresponds to your expected annual living cost (in [----] dollars) (e.g. $50k/year $150k/year etc.). 2) Find the year you expect to retire on the x-axis. 3) Find the colored curved line (legend for reference) that corresponds to your *Current Age* (if it doesn't have your exact age find the two closest to your current age and imagine a curved line drawn between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879192473156960616)  2025-01-14T15:42Z 44.1K followers, 212K engagements


"Right where we ought to be as far as Bitcoin price goes - median 'fair value' is about $84480 currently at $82420. Makes you think - for all those who are calling this as the 'end of the cycle' - have even really entered into a bubble phase yet Hang on tight and channel the stoics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906817678830153805)  2025-03-31T21:15Z 44.1K followers, 31.9K engagements


"2025 has been defined by BTC moving from slightly overvalued ➡fairly valued➡undervalued in a matter of [---] months. Don't make the dire mistake of thinking it won't change direction again exactly when you least expect it. Welcome to Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909938902078488912)  2025-04-09T11:58Z 44.1K followers, 21.9K engagements


"Like a coiled spring. 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910305853783101908)  2025-04-10T12:16Z 44.1K followers, 18.4K engagements


"If you have [--] Bitcoins you can live like the super-rich if you HODL that for [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914123527592263842)  2025-04-21T01:06Z 44.1K followers, 46K engagements


"The most natural Top Zone for Bitcoin to run to this cycle - in Ol' Uncle Smitty's opinion. - - - The Decay Channel (OG version and updated/more bullish version driven by future predicted volatility) is telling us the range is: OCTOBER [--] 2025: $196520 $202909 DECEMBER [--] 2025: $206786 $213982 All based on the most empirical elegant and historically predictive top model you will see in Bitcoin - the Decay Channel Model. Meanwhile the Decay Oscillator is telling us we're not finished; hardly at 30% charged. We all know liquidity is about to come flooding back and we all know how quickly we can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1916240121965506811)  2025-04-26T21:17Z 44.1K followers, 119.9K engagements


"Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide: e-Book Edition 📙 *Only here on X* The wait is finally over - you're going to want to bookmark this. - - - 🧵Thread👇 Without detailing the exact instructions on how to use the guide this time around I will explain the important changes - and from there please engage share and enjoy 1) Updated Model: This is a critical solution and I'll explain why. Rather than using the median (50th quantile) power regression model as was used in previous versions Smitty's e-Book uses the 5th quantile. Why Statistically theoretically this ensures that 95% of the time the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917605539279954391)  2025-04-30T15:42Z 44.1K followers, 310.4K engagements


"A couple things to clarify on the Bitcoin Retirement Guide for those who are missing these key details: [--]. There are many annual spending scenarios in this 'e-book' ranging from $50k/year -- $1M/year; choose whichever suits your lifestyle [--]. The annual spending is inflation-adjusted in future years meaning each year in the future the annual spending is increased to compensate for 7% annual inflation [--]. This is modeled on an annual conversion of enough of your stack to 'buy' the needed amount of USD for a given year's expenses (I am *not* recommending this this is just the basis of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1918330019300196581)  2025-05-02T15:41Z 44.1K followers, 45.1K engagements


"This might be my favorite scenario. If you're [--] [--] BTC will let you live on $1M/year (2025 dollars) when you retire at 65"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1918689135138934996)  2025-05-03T15:28Z 44.1K followers, 59.4K engagements


"Nearly [----] bookmarks on this retire on Bitcoin post I always look for feedback on what to do better what resonates within the community and what gets people thinking and invested. I'm encouraged and humbled by this bookmark count; it's clearly a meaningful topic to people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1919524813837607042)  2025-05-05T22:49Z 44.1K followers, 20.8K engagements


"$2 billion per BTC in the future seems like a reasonable outcome. Weibull vs power law - for decades to come most likely the two will be indistinguishable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923065869380296737)  2025-05-15T17:20Z 44.1K followers, 26K engagements


"This really doesn't look any different now than it did a year ago. Only [--] million"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923387093528567863)  2025-05-16T14:36Z 44.1K followers, 45.6K engagements


"In [--] years (2035) Bitcoin support will be about $900000 and it's upper bound something around $2000000 according to the Decay Channel Model. Fascinating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925016651801698750)  2025-05-21T02:31Z 44.1K followers, 10.3K engagements


"There is a myth that 100% of the returns in Bitcoin only happen if you buy at the bottoms and then sell at the tops during one of the cycles. Power law quantile analysis shows otherwise; in fact there are nearly identical growth rates (CAGR) whether you buy/sell at the bottoms (support) or around the middle (median) 52% vs 53% as of this year Whichever trendline is followed even if you only trade at the bottoms the compounded annual returns of Bitcoin will be 7x of what you'd ever expect from the S&P. Ignore or try to time Bitcoin at your own risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926663818362372446)  2025-05-25T15:37Z 44.1K followers, 17.3K engagements


"But yes I'm sure this cycle has peaked. 🙄 - - - Bitcoin cycles @ power law fit a la 365-day SMA At $110000/coin today the 365-dSMA is only touching the trendline; history shows each cycle moving 2-3x higher than this. Have a nice day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927378889464045568)  2025-05-27T14:58Z 44.1K followers, 94.2K engagements


"Bitcoin Retirement *Boxplot Edition* - - - Choose an annual expense requirement ($100k - 500k / year) Each box is the 'spread' of Bitcoin needed to retire across ages 5-75 for years [----] [----] [----] [----] and [----]. Dark thick lines inside each box is the median; a good target for most people. - - - All based on Smitty's Retirement Guide (e-Book edition specifically) - check out the original post for model details and assumptions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928179674812928053)  2025-05-29T20:00Z 44.1K followers, 30.3K engagements


"I'm not usually one for TA but I must say this chart is rather captivating to me. - - - Rolling Z-score of the 700-day window for Bitcoin's cumulative price integral- in other words the Z-score for the area under the price curve. Soon we must behold the next red arrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928469169441583146)  2025-05-30T15:10Z 44.1K followers, 19.9K engagements


"The amount of Bitcoin you need to retire based on an inflation-adjusted $100k/year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928847093952647624)  2025-05-31T16:12Z 44.1K followers, 163.9K engagements


"Nothing stops this (already completely derailed) train. - - - If you haven't seen this you should: the correlation between M2 money supply and US total debt (USD). In the early COVID days money supply was way ahead of debt and now debt is way ahead of money supply. Can you say "mean reversion" @LynAldenContact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1929552836947501265)  2025-06-02T14:57Z 44.1K followers, 22.6K engagements


"2025 Top Zone Update According to the Decay Channel Model we are still right on track; if we have a blow-off top by end of this year looking at a top range of $209000 - $236000. If we reach the top mid-2026 instead (June [--] 2026): $230000 - $264000 and If on December [--] 2026: $255000 - $297000. So relative to today I believe we still have 2-3x to go for this cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930658498100211878)  2025-06-05T16:10Z 44.1K followers, 34.8K engagements


"Bitcoin is the internet of money; and we are getting in quite early. Both are true networks both follow power laws both have few physical constraints other than population"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931029883549045122)  2025-06-06T16:46Z 44.1K followers, 14.3K engagements


"I admit only having been a [--] cycler in Bitcoin it's a little strange to have been brought into the "community" by way of the shared disdain of money printing and yet now being on this side everyone seems to be rooting for the money printer to make our thing work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931187284436726202)  2025-06-07T03:11Z 44.1K followers, 31.5K engagements


"File under "reasons why we haven't completed this Bitcoin cycle yet": We haven't had the "red run" you see in every previous bull run in the highest-percentile weekly returns. Not enough red Need more red"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931471388839452870)  2025-06-07T22:00Z 44.1K followers, 17K engagements


"It's generally a bad idea to assume you can "retire on [---] or [----] Bitcoin.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931778769767080363)  2025-06-08T18:22Z 44.1K followers, 176.4K engagements


"This support line is the basis for much of my Bitcoin price analysis - namely the Decay Channel Model and the Bitcoin Retirement Guide. - - - It is formed by applying the 5th percentile power law regression to Bitcoin's historical price. It is so reliable that today the support line is virtually identical to the line formed by only using data through the year [----] almost [--] years ago. This is critically important because: [--]. It is the baseline for measuring the deviations which help us estimate the upper bounds of future bubbles (Decay Channel tops). [--]. It provides the conservative price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932118249468240229)  2025-06-09T16:51Z 44.1K followers, 61.1K engagements


"Been feeling like we're on the longest Bitcoin crab crawl ever Not only would you be right - but there is something else unique about the current "crab market" as I call it. It is the first of all the crab markets to have a steeper slope than the previous one. Keep reading 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934652104360296719)  2025-06-16T16:39Z 44.1K followers, 66.5K engagements


"@spectatorindex I hope they mean they're starting a Bitcoin strategic reserve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935086610472910890)  2025-06-17T21:26Z 44.1K followers, 31.6K engagements


"The estimate of 25% of people in the US owning Bitcoin if even close to true is so so so much higher than what I'd estimate based off of my pure anecdotal experience. Even [--] in [--] seems high although this seems much closer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935493694842618310)  2025-06-19T00:23Z 44.1K followers, 22.7K engagements


"Bitcoin spends roughly half its time in a bubble and half its time crab-crawling. If you separate the two and you fit the lower half of the data to a power law the correlation/accuracy is 99.73%. - - - Therefore if you completely ignore the bubbles and pretend they will never exist again BTC price would STILL be slated to hit $1M USD in December [----]. Given that there ARE bubbles and given that they are clearly less predictable and more poorly understood expect that we will hit $1M sometime well before this perhaps years ahead of [----]. $1M any time between [----] and [----] seems very reasonable."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935806885195923574)  2025-06-19T21:08Z 44.1K followers, 149.2K engagements


"Concept: Bitcoin as a battery. 🔋 As we approach the cycle peak the battery is being severely drained (pick up the battery and use at your own risk). Coming out of the bubble Bitcoin becomes recharged; best times to pick up the battery for a full discharge next time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936437703132033077)  2025-06-21T14:55Z 44.1K followers, 24.5K engagements


"We're not in a bull run yet. We're in Bitcoin's longest crab crawl. 🦀 You'll know when we're in the bull run. 🐮 Steady lads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937597260701008186)  2025-06-24T19:42Z 44.1K followers, 28K engagements


"Honestly have you ever seen such a clean oscillator 🟠Only Bitcoin🟠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938287269485678999)  2025-06-26T17:24Z 44.1K followers, 28.7K engagements


"Something very interesting about Rudd and Porter's peer-reviewed paper on Bitcoin's price forecast: they don't show their price models superimposed on Bitcoin's price history. Here is exactly that - and probably why they didn't want to show it in the paper. 👇 Orange = median PL regression model Orange band = 5th-95th percentile PL regression Green grey red blue = Rudd/Porter's Fig. [--] models - - - On its face visually and qualitatively it looks improbable at best. Quantitatively and intuitively it falls far outside the bounds of the value growth expected of Bitcoin as a network with specific"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938338395601924595)  2025-06-26T20:47Z 44.1K followers, 99.3K engagements


"Introducing: The Bitcoin Battery. - - - This is a new Bitcoin price oscillator envisioned as a battery. When in accumulation zones the battery is full of potential energy. When the battery gets drained to near 0% this is when the energy has been largely 'discharged' pushing the price near its peak for this cycle. After a cycle peak time for the battery to fully charge again so us HODLers can go back to stacking. Today we breached $108000 - - - this puts the Bitcoin Battery at a 59.7% charge; PLENTY of charge to drain - electrons Coulombs amp-hours watt-hours etc. - to bring us to the cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940429368482058465)  2025-07-02T15:16Z 44.1K followers, 28.4K engagements


"Many don't feel that they'll be able to hit their Bitcoin stacking goals. Indeed it is becoming harder all the time to accumulate with the expected price to reach $1M in about [--] years. The problem: there just aren't that many levers to pull to stack substantially more BTC other than to substantially increase one's income dramatically cut expenses or both. There may be one great alternative solution for those looking to grow that BTC stack: BUY AND HOLD MSTR. - - - Yes it does carry with it more risk but for those who can stomach it - MSTR appears to follow a power law vs BTC meaning you can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940808719866196283)  2025-07-03T16:23Z 44.1K followers, 68.9K engagements


"So you can visualize the current MSTR/BTC relationship (power law). When BTC = $200K implied price of MSTR = $1583 (2x BTC 4x MSTR) in the shown window (likely for this current cycle). [------] R2. Heck of an extrapolation I made with this other post but this is the basis; I'll dive into it more to check feasibility: https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1940808719866196283 https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1940808719866196283"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941509592783143248)  2025-07-05T14:48Z 44.1K followers, 29.7K engagements


"Many have asked and so here it is: FULL re-post of Smitty's Bitcoin Retirement Guide 📙 - - - Paginated [---] DPI $50k - $1M USD annual expense scenarios assumed future 7% average annual inflation and does not account for taxes. - - - BOOKMARK this so you can always refer back to it Download save print-out share 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942959025177698572)  2025-07-09T14:48Z 44.1K followers, 259.6K engagements


"Bags packed 🎒 💼🧳 $200k by year end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943045694610379052)  2025-07-09T20:32Z 44.1K followers, 14.5K engagements


"🔋 BITCOIN BATTERY has 56.2% charge left - are you ready to plug it in and shock the system ⚡ - - - Current price = $113408 Full DRAIN NOW = $188853 Full recharge = $54510"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943368447649599645)  2025-07-10T17:55Z 44.1K followers, 29.6K engagements


"How much BTC do you need to retire 🟠🟠🟠 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944414419590791384)  2025-07-13T15:11Z 44.1K followers, 28.7K engagements


"Fair value update: Sitting at right around $119000 Bitcoin's fair value is $95142; so roughly 25% overvalued in terms of its historical median power law price path. While this may be technically a little heated it still has much further up to go according to historical 'cycles' - in fact this is the first time we've reached this level with such little FOMO and such little volatility. In fact if the cycle 'peaks' by the end of [----] history would show we could hit $200k or higher. So. buy or don't buy When It's $500k - $1M in 4-8 years will you care whether you bought at $95k vs $119k HODL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944794713145651244)  2025-07-14T16:22Z 44.1K followers, 40K engagements


"The amount of Bitcoin needed to retire depends on the country you live in. This will be the first of a set of iterated analyses where I aim to answer: what is that average BTC stack size needed to retire in [----] by country and age Much of the world requires less than [--] coin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945900559443370159)  2025-07-17T17:37Z 44.1K followers, 437.5K engagements


"For anyone left out - fear not: List #2 for AVERAGE BITCOIN NEEDED TO RETIRE IN [----] by country (and age):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947300630466634132)  2025-07-21T14:20Z 44.1K followers, 32.9K engagements


"Together in one place. Average [----] BTC Retirement by country [--] easy-to-read plots:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947324833383023058)  2025-07-21T15:56Z 44.1K followers, 16.9K engagements


"Caught up with one of the smartest scientists I know the other day. Anti-Bitcoiner. After an hour of debating the value of Bitcoin as money and technology going DEEP into the philosophy of it all the only ONLY thing that caused him to pause and reflect on his position was after I said "Would it change your mind at all if governments including ours began accumulating Bitcoin" He said "Good point. Good point.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947728823984001501)  2025-07-22T18:41Z 44.1K followers, 22.3K engagements


"🟠 How much Bitcoin does the average person need to retire Here its calculated and presented in radial charts 🍥 for [--] countries ages [--] - [--] retiring in [----] - [----]. - - - Based on each countrys average income level adjusted for inflation (7% M2 expansion) and of course utilizing the highly reliable power law support line (5th percentile) as the BTC price model - check out the numbers based on your current age. Assumes: spending the actual Bitcoin for annual living expenses and expecting to live to age [---]. Highlights: 🍥MOST people in MOST countries still need less than [--] BTC for [----] and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948045532695556509)  2025-07-23T15:40Z 44.1K followers, 314.1K engagements


"On average how long would it take to stack [--] Bitcoin by dollar cost averaging (DCA) - starting from today or any other July 31st - - - Using past and future power law modeling we can see that: 🟠 This is the LAST YEAR where it is possible to achieve a [--] Bitcoin stack in [--] YEARS if you DCA $250/ week ($1000/ month) starting NOW. starting in [----] it will take [--] years 🤯 🟠 In [----] you could have stacked [--] BTC in [--] years with only $100/ week 🤯 🟠 By the time Bitcoin hits $1M as it is projected to in [----] it will be virtually impossible to stack [--] Bitcoin via DCA with $1000/ week allotments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950937884632178735)  2025-07-31T15:13Z 44.1K followers, 125.9K engagements


"How long will it take you to stack [---] BTC if you start with $100/ week now [--] years. If you start on July [--] [----] [--] years. If you start in [----] when Bitcoin is $1M even stacking $1000/ week will take [--] years to stack [---] The train moves fast 🚂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951278757089816696)  2025-08-01T13:48Z 44.1K followers, 18K engagements


"Trying to DCA to reach [--] Bitcoin - - - If you started only [--] years go you could have socked away $220 - 1000/ week ($880 - 4000/ month) and build a 10-BTC stack after 5-10 years. Those days are gone. If you started today even if you DCA'd $4000/ month it would take you [--] years to reach the same 10-coin goal. Hopefully these DCA analysis posts are conveying that it is more about how long you're in Bitcoin rather than how much you're in - so don't wait around for the right time. STACK EARLY. STACK HARD. 🟠SESH🟠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951691874940629157)  2025-08-02T17:09Z 44.1K followers, 17.9K engagements


"💡You've identified your desired retirement year and required target Bitcoin stack from the Bitcoin Retirement Guide (copied in replies) NOW - assuming you'll be dollar cost averaging (DCA) can you achieve that stack by the year you're targeting 🕓🗓 - - - Check out the time (Years) that will be required for you to achieve that stack and how THAT stacks up with your target - do you need to adjust This can help REFINE your target into something practical. On average the following targets are achievable according to the power law trend: 🍊 [----] BTC: Under [--] months for $50/ week or more 🍊 0.1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953098989504741392)  2025-08-06T14:21Z 44.1K followers, 29.3K engagements


"Short-term excitement fuels my long-term conviction as a Bitcoin analyst. $124k - hallelujah This being an conventional cycle (steeper accumulation phase or "crabwalk") I see we are RIGHT on track to hit and likely exceed $200k towards end of this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955799657168404907)  2025-08-14T01:12Z 44.1K followers, 11K engagements


"Let's analyze this this Crab market so far defined by end of [----] to now. It's the longest one in Bitcoin's 16-year history. It turns out to be an exponential growth curve which in log-linear space is a straight line; this fits with R2=0.92. If it continues on its current path it should hit $200k per coin as late as May [--] [----] -- BUT -- during this Crab Crawl it has no problem hitting or hugging the +2sigma line which could easily mean $200k as early as November [--] this year. None of this accounts for a steeper super-exponential euphoric phase leading to the top which would be more typical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956397241381609980)  2025-08-15T16:47Z 44.1K followers, 53K engagements


"Bitcoin. long-term power law in gold eventual hyperbolic explosion in worthless fiat paper Idea is: the sustainable growth in real purchasing power should be reflected in hard assets and will only appear so for a while when fiat-denominated. Here showing range estimate of years 2068-2127 for dollar collapse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956776730364166376)  2025-08-16T17:55Z 44.1K followers, 36.8K engagements


"Bitcoin is going to one million"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960177300936548733)  2025-08-26T03:07Z 44.1K followers, 12.2K engagements


"50th percentile power law. Did you sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960731950278234389)  2025-08-27T15:51Z 44.1K followers, 75.6K engagements


"Always good to zoom out. This is still my base case for this 'cycle.' If not [----] (not saying its not) [----] is still looking GREAT for a Top. Decay Channel says we're talking: Dec [--] 2025: $205k - 230k Jan [--] 2026: $208k - 235k Apr [--] 2026: $219k - 250k July [--] 2026: $230k - 265k Oct [--] 2026: $243k - 282k Dec [--] 2026: $250k - 292k If the top indeed occurs on any of those dates. NFA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1964026609641672724)  2025-09-05T18:03Z 44.1K followers, 52.8K engagements


"Stay with me on this maybe bookmark it. I wanted to understand Bitcoin's price multiple relative to each historical cycle top for the [--] months leading up to those tops. Can this give us some insight as to WHEN and WHAT the top is likely to be (and not to be) this time around Example: "Within the next [--] months how likely is the price to double giving us that $200k top" In [----] the year prior to the cycle top saw the price multiply hundreds of times (500x from just [--] months before the price peak). For each subsequent cycle as you might have imagined the price went through fewer multiples to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965100481610711044)  2025-09-08T17:10Z 44.1K followers, 30.9K engagements


"🔋THE BITCOIN BATTERY 🔋is 60.6% charged Light green like we've been in for much of the last [---] years. And you think we've reached the top ⚡Current price = $112069 ⚡Full Drain to 0% = $195406 🪫 ⚡Full Recharge to 100% = $57925 🔋"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423197278392616)  2025-09-09T14:33Z 44.1K followers, 112.7K engagements


"Unfollow Dennis Porter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970508534891823261)  2025-09-23T15:20Z 44.1K followers, 11.9K engagements


"In Bitcoin it always pays to zoom-out. The 365-day SMA reveals very well-defined curvilinear bubbles or waves. Compared to the power law regression line the SMA has only just begun to push slightly above [--] (1 = trendline) since mid-year this year. All historical bubbles have gone as high as [--] - [---] Hope you're getting ready for what's next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970875166680130000)  2025-09-24T15:37Z 44.1K followers, 42.3K engagements


"🦀CRAB CRAWL update 🦀 - - - As sentiment withers let's check in on the price path this accumulation phase starting from the end of the last bear market (here defined as Dec [--] 2022): With BTC price $109000 we've hit the [---] line which has been very normal during this exponential Crab Crawl market. Again - this time things are different in terms of its 'bull market' dynamics. During the Crab market it has hit the [---] line about [--] times. So NOTHING to doom about. IF we keep along this Crab Crawl the the +2 line would put us at $200000 on Dec. 9th or Mar. 17th '26 if we reach it via +1. If we stay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971598816249020799)  2025-09-26T15:32Z 44.1K followers, 24.2K engagements


"GM. If you're not bullish you might need your head checked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972677842694463709)  2025-09-29T15:00Z 44.1K followers, 19.8K engagements


"$130k-140k by end of the month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974880076996157869)  2025-10-05T16:51Z 44.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Same model [--] years apart. Look into the Bitcoin Power Law"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978178977328984489)  2025-10-14T19:19Z 44.1K followers, 16.4K engagements


"We're at this stage in the current Bitcoin cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978950232164700587)  2025-10-16T22:24Z 44.1K followers, 20.7K engagements


"Based on my experience in Bitcoin so far being a Bitcoiner seems to mean feeling like this 90% of the time feeling terror 5% of the time euphoria 5% of the time until one day you wake up and realize you're rich. https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1978950232164700587s=19 We're at this stage in the current Bitcoin cycle https://t.co/mjqBsYKS4w https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1978950232164700587s=19 We're at this stage in the current Bitcoin cycle https://t.co/mjqBsYKS4w"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978950969628237904)  2025-10-16T22:27Z 44.1K followers, 18.1K engagements


"🦀Let's check in on this Crab Crawl market🦀 Is it really that bad Wow big dip down to $105-106k. no doubt invokes bad feelings. BUT let's inject some perspective: this dip just brought us down to the [---] standard deviation based on data since late [----] ('the last cycle bottom'). Look how many times we've visited this line before Take heart - keep marching (or crawling 🦀). And keep HODLing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1979230157576769662)  2025-10-17T16:56Z 44.1K followers, 128.7K engagements


"Always remember: EVERYTHING goes to zero vs. Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980301293009957339)  2025-10-20T15:53Z 44.1K followers, 54.7K engagements


"Do Bitcoin bull runs follow gold bull runs It would appear so. In fact Bitcoin bubbles appear when gold stops running. This cycle we have not entered a Bitcoin bubble yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981015566992457934)  2025-10-22T15:11Z 44.1K followers, 16.9K engagements


"You're gonna have fun with this one; best to bookmark it and sit with it a bit. - - - 👉BTC FOLLOWS GOLD 👈 🏃♂🏃♂🏃♂ Top two plots are residual plots based on the price plot underneath for both Bitcoin and Gold - lets you visualize the fluctuations of both assets becoming more over- or under-valued. The curved arrows connect the ENDS of the gold bull runs to the BEGINNINGS of the Bitcoin bull runs - along with the approximate lag of BTC behind gold runs in days. Now look where we are now with gold. 🪙🧡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981421678090654140)  2025-10-23T18:05Z 44.1K followers, 174.8K engagements


"First I showed you gold. Now if you haven't seen this pay attention 🔎 COPPER/GOLD RATIO 🥉/🏅 The peaks of this metric and BTC price are EXTREMELY well aligned historically. As an important macroeconomic signal when it trends down it signals a risk-off environment (what it is doing NOW) since higher copper (Cu) represents more industrial activity and higher gold (Au) represents flight to safety. To me this is one of the most compelling signals out there. - - - We're going HIGHER friends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983207364699533421)  2025-10-28T16:20Z 44.1K followers, 167.9K engagements


"The fiat waves will come and they will go. Bitcoin's tide is growing deeper more persistent and more powerful. Are you being tossed by the waves or are you rising with the tide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984741743439528349)  2025-11-01T21:58Z 44.1K followers, 77.8K engagements


"How about this for some perspective 👁 - - - The Decay Channel doesn't tell you IF or WHEN we'll rise up to a cycle top. It does provide a target range for the top if and when we do get there - if we are correct in assuming it has been delayed from [----] to [----] the green zone is the top zone: Yes a range of $210k - $300k. ALWAYS zoom out anon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986126252152135783)  2025-11-05T17:39Z 44.1K followers, 90.1K engagements


"See any similarities 🧐 Schrdinger's Market - business cycle doesn't want to bubble up nor collapse. [--] PI means level-to-contraction. I can't see how with all the dampers on now (gov't shutdown tariffs QT etc.) the floodgates don't open up around the corner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986445646191264246)  2025-11-06T14:48Z 44.1K followers, 32.2K engagements


"Bittel nails it- if you get nothing else from this "cycle" gain this understanding: https://x.com/BittelJulien/status/1969350269780607487s=19 Most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoins traditional four-year cycle can extend. Its simple. If the business cycle extends the crypto cycle extends. Bitcoin is a macro asset https://t.co/JrtWAqPJpT https://x.com/BittelJulien/status/1969350269780607487s=19 Most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoins traditional four-year cycle can extend. Its simple. If the business cycle extends the crypto cycle extends. Bitcoin is a macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986546560830943742)  2025-11-06T21:29Z 44.1K followers, 33.1K engagements


"What goes down 👇 must come up 👆 🧵 - - - (1/2) Lots of great work coming out lately on the correlation of Bitcoin with the ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index). I analyzed the full dataset of the PMI from [----] - today and found that we are currently in the LONGEST running contraction (defined by PMI 50) in the index's history 🤯 The AVERAGE contraction length is [---] years and we are now [----] years into the current one making this a 3-sigma event (an extreme outlier by definition occurs 0.3% of the time). What does this imply For cyclical time series data the force of mean-reversion tends to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988276280513675275)  2025-11-11T16:03Z 44.1K followers, 115.3K engagements


"PMI sure looks ready to bounce and drag BTC up with it. Mega bullish. Longest contraction in PMI history should spring back with a lot of stored energy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988615816431174099)  2025-11-12T14:32Z 44.1K followers, 96.3K engagements


"Average business cycle contraction is about [--] year. We are about [--] years in. The likelihood of *NOT* reversing into a parabolic move is vanishing fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988754324407885996)  2025-11-12T23:42Z 44.1K followers, 26.4K engagements

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