# ![@siyul Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::15592917.png) @siyul Siyu Li

Siyu Li posts on X about $val, $db, $sofi, $dg the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::15592917/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::15592917/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] -97%
- [--] Month [---------] +4,481%
- [--] Months [---------] +593%
- [--] Year [----------] +173%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::15592917/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::15592917/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Months [-----] +248%
- [--] Year [-----] +255%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::15592917/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::15592917/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1.70%
- [--] Month [-----] +8.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +27%
- [--] Year [-----] +64%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::15592917/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::15592917/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[$val](/topic/$val) #46, [$db](/topic/$db) #101, [$sofi](/topic/$sofi), [$dg](/topic/$dg), [if you](/topic/if-you), [investment](/topic/investment) #4267, [meta](/topic/meta), [$amzn](/topic/$amzn), [$save](/topic/$save), [$goog](/topic/$goog)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@fishtowncap](/creator/undefined) [@datadinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@aureliusltd28](/creator/undefined) [@bankingip](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@vadimkotlarov](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@persianmacroguy](/creator/undefined) [@davidkatunaric](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@seawolfcap](/creator/undefined) [@nestbetter](/creator/undefined) [@ccmbrett](/creator/undefined) [@investmenttalkk](/creator/undefined) [@andrewrangeley](/creator/undefined) [@valuations](/creator/undefined) [@invesquotes](/creator/undefined) [@jerrycap](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)](/topic/$db) [RAI Finance (SOFI)](/topic/$sofi) [Decentral Games (DG)](/topic/$dg) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)](/topic/$save) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Golar LNG Ltd (GLNG)](/topic/$glng) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Burford Capital Limited (BUR)](/topic/$bur) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Basis Cash (BAC)](/topic/$bac) [Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)](/topic/$hhh) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)](/topic/$dltr) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [IAC/InterActiveCorp Common Stock (IAC)](/topic/$iac) [Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN)](/topic/$armn) [Unifi Protocol DAO (UNFI)](/topic/$unfi) [Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)](/topic/$schw) [Dole, plc (DOLE)](/topic/$dole) [Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd (SHG)](/topic/$shg) [Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)](/topic/$soc) [TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP)](/topic/$trip) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU)](/topic/$jblu) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Opendoor Technologies Inc Common Stock (OPEN)](/topic/$open) [New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (NYCB)](/topic/$nycb) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)](/topic/$five) [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst) [MGM Resorts International (MGM)](/topic/$mgm) [American Express Company (AXP)](/topic/$axp) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Wells Fargo & Co (WFC)](/topic/$wfc) [Veno Finance (VNO)](/topic/$vno) [Reddit, Inc.  (RDDT)](/topic/$rddt) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [eBay Inc (EBAY)](/topic/$ebay) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [ArchLoot (AL)](/topic/$al) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/$ms) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"A 1-page cheat sheet on why an obscure stock 🚀 and ppl talk about it. [--]. $ARKK $ARKW @CathieDWood buy it ( $NNDM) [--]. launch an EV/shining obj initiative [--]. $SPACs news ( $CCIV) [--]. Bankruptcy ( $HTZ ) [--]. @muddywatersre short it ( $GSX) Wild world. anything to add😃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1352144185244213254)  2021-01-21T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"2 charts below show $GDX a promising bet for [----]. Gold Miners EV/EBITDA at a historical low. #Gold vs M2 Money supply relationship. My [--] miners picks: $KL major miner low cost superior mgt; $EQX a mid-size miner led by legend Ross Beaty tremendous growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1353681528140689409)  2021-01-25T12:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#AdTech ecosystem key players DSP: $TTD The Trade Desk $CRTO Criteo $ROKU (acquired DataXu) SSP: $MGNI Magnite (Rubicon Project + Telaria) $PUBM Pubmatic AdExchange: $GOOG (DoubleClick) $T (Appnexus - Xandr) Agency: $WPP $OMC Omnicom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1363839960961474564)  2021-02-22T13:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#SPAC Eagle Acquisition Corp series: Diamond $DEAC - $DKNG $60 up 500+% Flying $FEAC - $SKLZ $32 up 200+% Now: Soaring $SRNGU Trade around $11 it includes [--] share + [--] warrant to buy [---] shares at $11.5. Experienced team with track records a low-risk bet💰IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1364941762486272001)  2021-02-25T14:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$DKNG Earning: Underneath 144% YoY rev growth for $1 betting revenue it spent $1 on operations and $0.6 on marketing/incentives. 16% US market share other players Rush Street ( $RSI ) Fanduel PointsBet $MGM $PENN etc. online betting is tough biz to be in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1365350166715387921)  2021-02-26T17:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$IHRT @iHeartMedia is an indisputable giant cross audio ecosystems. At a $2B market cap ($7.5B EV) it is significantly undervalued compared to $SPOT $SIRI. No.1 in streaming/podcasting charts below. Working on a research paper follow me @SeekingAlpha to get updates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1371867333942185988)  2021-03-16T16:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"40 years charts on Earning of Large Cap Value vs Growth. Value is 38% below and Growth is 15%+ above the trend line. Value basket in Pharm sector: $PFE $MRK $GILD $BMY P/E: 8x - 12x Dividend Yield:3% - 5% Reasonable if mean reversion is inevitable. h/t @edclissold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1372528389714755591)  2021-03-18T12:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$U Unity: long-term player/winner and priced high. Trends Tailwinds: 🟢gaming as a way of social life 🟢native ads embedded in contents [--] areas for expansion: 🟢Gaming(TAM $12B) duo play: Epic 🟢Industries e.g. BMW(TAM $17B) v.s. $ADBE $ADSK 🟢AR/VR (TAM $19B)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1375126380627775492)  2021-03-25T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Yield_Fanatic $CRTO for DFV AdTech play $ENGMF for exotic swing-the-fence gaming play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1380699497106448384)  2021-04-10T01:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SmallCapKing2 If you got homework done on $ENGMF please point to me thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1382160816095571969)  2021-04-14T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Hotel data '21 vs '19 QTD from DB Highlights: 🟢RevPAR drops -27.5% v.s. '19 🟢Higher-end have most occupancy impact 🟢Rate concession matches occupancy impact except Luxury. (money can't persuade rich😎) ✅ low-end $HST $STAY Mixed $MAR $HLT $H ❗ High-end $PK $HT $IHG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1386670754767507457)  2021-04-26T13:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I am a YoutubeTV subscriber and love it. I have RokuTV. @YouTubeTV suggested alternative is ok but I think the boss move is for any YoutubeTV subscriber with RokuTV offer: ✅Free Chromecast ✅20% discount on a 1-year YoutubeTV subscription $GOOG you get $100B+ cash @Roku"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1388347051969335296)  2021-05-01T04:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"1/2 Weekly earning preview: gaming/betting: $WYNN $EGLX $RSI $IGT $FLL gold miner: $KGC $KRRGF $TPRFF (2 my fav minors) eComm: $BABA $JMIA $BIGC media/adTech: $TGNA $TDD $MGNI battleground: $FUBO $OPEN $UPST My portfolio spotlight mention ( $BABA $NLS) 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1391560923937222664)  2021-05-10T01:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Next week investor events (5/31-6/4): Earnings Tech: $ZM $DOCU $ESTC $CRWD $APPS Others: $AAP $LULU $PD 5/31: 🟢US box office numbers $VIAC $DIS $T $LGFA 6/1: 🟢 $TDOC $MSTR presents at W Blair Growth Stock conf 6/2: 🟢F8 conf $FB 🟢vehicle sales $GM $F $TM $TSLA More👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1398726483347226631)  2021-05-29T19:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BahamaBen9 @max_damore @BackpackerFI @JonahLupton @paul_essen @plantmath1 @jeremymday @Dividend_Dollar @qcapital2020 @anandchokkavelu @InvestmentTalkk @FrankYanWang transaction cost levied to consumers / Market share both measured in YoY % change reflects a brand's competing power imo. I watch this ratio closely among $RDFN $COMP $EXPI $RMAX $RLGY for traditional brokerage. And $OPEN $SPNV and a portion of $RDFN $Z for iBuying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1411731689886433287)  2021-07-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@thomas_kaede @chiefhustlr @kcerminara @JaredSKaplan cool good stuff thx for sharing here + podcast. that's a sufficient amount of additional data point to deserve a $FGNA revisit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413357161787400193)  2021-07-09T04:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ Valuation #1 A compelling case was made to compare it to some FinTech stars e.g. $UPST $SOFI $ROOT $PYPL. Some are jaw-dropping: e.g. $UPST $SOFI trades 8/10x $FGNA's Ev/2021 Ebitda. If the argument is $FGNA is a better investment compared to $UPST $SOFI I am sold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944568702283779)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Valuation #2 Yet that's not enough for me. I am not here to judge $SOFI $UPST's valuation (though IMO they are ridiculously priced). But I need to find its competitive peers and put $FGNA to some real valuation test. let us first dive into its business/unit economics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944571147522055)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ Unit Economics #2 The chart models [---] loans ($1500/11Month) over a customer's lifetime. And the number is per loan. ✅Thus the acquisition cost is $500/per customer. ✅Its operating cost is only 8% revenue interest expense at 6% incredible numbers ✅ High write-off 38%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944579091468288)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Think its peers by avg APR% write-off% $AXP $DFS: 12% 1.5-3% $WRLD: 57% 14% $FGNA: 100%+ 38% In terms of APR rate/write-off OppFi is in a class of its own. $WRLD is a close peer. A side-by-side $WRLD $FGNA OppFi: I used Y20 and est Y21 to provide a range"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944582119829504)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"So the static numbers are comparable. Now $WRLD is a stable business while $FGNA according to its business has an aggressive CAGR growth ahead of them. If $FGNA can deliver what it projects it is very moderately valued today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944585424973831)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Follow-up I want to know more about their clientele and its marketing strategy. I was a P2P lender for years most loans are between 6-35% APR. Frankly I was in awe when discovering OppFi avg APR is 100%+ side notes: consumers really need education on responsible borrowing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944587568263170)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Summary: 🟢 a profitable business 🟢 I won't use $SOFI $UPST as a valuation benchmark as mgt did. 🟢 $WRLD an appropriate peer and $FGNA valuation is on par plus much higher growth potential. I am new to $FGNA and scratch the surface only. If you see inaccurate info lmk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413944588914544644)  2021-07-10T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@thomas_kaede @AndrewRangeley @kcerminara @GrantTh70973333 @cfischer6 Thanks Thomas for the comments I will check them out. I am still at a very early sizing it up stage so yea I am aware of general spac dilution as price goes up. But I am not there yet for that level of precision. My init impression is this is worth a deep dive. And I will"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1413986644357787652)  2021-07-10T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@thomas_kaede $FGNA that is. [--] days left. I am not sold yet still working on it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1414669122567385089)  2021-07-12T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@thomas_kaede @AndrewRangeley @kcerminara @GrantTh70973333 @cfischer6 Done my DD and share my conclusion here. A tough call. $FGNA checks almost all boxes on my list as a buy. But I have a difficult time to cheer for it as I don't think its product benefits consumers at its current setup. I can't own it when not truly excited about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1414995469781151747)  2021-07-13T17:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$GOOGL has voting rights vs $GOOG has no voting rights. Historically $GOOGL has about 1% premium Since May [----] the gap widens now 5% premium. The most I have ever seen. arbitrage opportunity❓ or voting rights matter (sth coming up)❓"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1418639479204720642)  2021-07-23T18:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$FB ER Some insights to ER data (not reciting ER numbers as I usually do😂). Thx @FiduciaInvest for an early chat to motivate my level-up. 2Q21 US/Canada arpu($) YoY% QoQ% $FB $51.5 45% 11% $TWTR$15 98% 21% $TWTR ARPU is 1/3 of $FB grows at 2x speed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1420556436749393925)  2021-07-29T01:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$SQ acquires Afterpay $29B Fred says 'price seems low'😒 I have no view just [--] hot takes😀: [--] Isn't BNPL credit card on steroids (ok I exaggerated) what is $V $MA waiting for [--] $TWTR built Spaces saved $4B (CH purchase) while $SQ pays 29B (20%+ premium) for $APT.AX Surprising indeed. Initial take: could be a great combo to create a global payments behemoth & great respect for the $sq team. Lots of work to do in next few weeks. Price seems low but perhaps value is in the post-merger. Also welcome to the $APT.AX fam @DennisHong17 😁 Surprising indeed. Initial take: could be a great combo to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1422042634491764737)  2021-08-02T03:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@tpsojda @SpecialSitsNews @TwitterSpaces @Mayhem4Markets @jablamsky @marketplunger1 @ruima @BuyandHoldd 'spiritual opium' crosses the ocean and takes down $AVTI $EA $TTWO too 🤡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1422587184369000449)  2021-08-03T15:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Chewing on a portfolio adjustment idea. Reduce $MSFT Add $AMZN YTD $MSFT 38%📈 $AMZN -2%📉 40% perf difference between [--] Trillion $ MCap players. What do you think❓ what's your idea ❓"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1428897918459785218)  2021-08-21T01:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NVDA beating $INTC by 4% becomes daily routine business for a while😂. The other way around must be some earth rattling news - today it is Intel Arc Alchemist GPU will compete with Nvidia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1437505823727575044)  2021-09-13T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$TRIP to travel booking = $Z to Real Estate shopping Both No.1 portal founded 20Y ago Yet $Z ($23B) the other big [--] combined $RDFN(6B) $EXPI(7B) $COMP(6B) $RLGY (2B) while $TRIP ($5B) is peanut compared to $BKNG ($102B) $EXPE ($26B) ofc loads of caveats still intriguing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1442532450601783299)  2021-09-27T16:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Came across 'Infinite Dial 2021' (published in March) ✅Social Media brand awareness: $TWTR scored No.3 after $FB ahead of $SNAP $PINS. though usage lags at No.5 ✅online audio brand awareness. Pandora () $SPOT $IHRT Though usage $SPOT No.1 More fun facts: 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1443959910417551364)  2021-10-01T15:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$UPST 20%+ 📈 this week $upst MCap surpassed [--] of [--] bulge bracket banks ( $DB $CS) yday. Here is the path to surpass all [--]. 👇 Given 🔥12x since IPO isn't that within reach in a year floored😜 1x $BCS $UBS 4x $GS $C 5x $MS 11x $BAC 15x $JPM F/D: Long $DB $C"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1449014159048417284)  2021-10-15T14:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Market wakes up❓ to realize for $50B $ebay is a superior choice to $pypl (compared to $pins) That would go with an epic 'bring it back home' style falcon landing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1451639587487588357)  2021-10-22T20:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$PERI Perion Network ER CTV/video rev +245% YoY 20% display 4th beat and raise in a row. premarket: 📈13% Its FY21 revebitda guidance history: ✅4q20:$370-380M 37-38M ✅1q21: $390-410M 39-41M ✅2q21: $415-430M 50-51M today ✅3q21: $455-465M 59-61M p.s. $crto ER tmw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1452968428193595397)  2021-10-26T12:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$INTC [--] directors + CEO Gelsinger insiders buy $2.5Mil $intc yesterday. turnaround is never easy. Not to mention at $200B empire with formidable competitors $amd $nvda Call me stubborn/(live in the past) I just don't count Intel out easily. Something to chew on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1453201609656254467)  2021-10-27T03:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$DB Deutsche Bank 📉7% with a solid qtr 1.3B PBT (excl. 0.6B charges) Last 4Q $5B PBT at 27B MCap $db is valued 6x MCap/PBT. The market treats 0.6B charges as a nasty surprise it forgot that was announced last month price 📉 5% then. a double-dip😂 My take👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1453433680651816962)  2021-10-27T18:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$z offer biz was cash flow positive in 3Q. But a dim view on inventory - Val adj - $300M loss - Pause A lot went wrong yet I applaud its courage to reverse course (could ignore it keep playing and hope for a stronger 4Q mkt). Now $OPEN had 5k+ inventory 2Q21.👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1455723631791722499)  2021-11-03T02:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpecialSitsNews $mgm just needs regional Macau and online"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1456101663417188352)  2021-11-04T03:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Looking for solid DD on $pton 🙏if you know one👇 F/D: I have no position/view on $pton But I am curious to know more as my $lulu pants-wearing neighbors are still on $pton and my scientific 'jogging in the community' counts are still way under pre-covid.😀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1457424048884011014)  2021-11-07T19:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$UNFI 3Q21 ER another solid Q proving a turnaround story as the largest US food wholesale distributor: ✅inflation is a tailwind. (vs. headwind to food producers $FDP $CVGW) ✅scale advantage under supply chain pressure. Fairly valued at 7.5x Ev/Ebitda & 10x MCap/EBIT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1468573145858813953)  2021-12-08T13:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EBAY vs $CHWY 1Y ago I said it was absurd that Market Cap of $chwy (e-comm for 🐕) $ebay (e-Comm for 🚶) not to mention at a much smaller scale. The pushback I got was Valuation doesn't matter for growth darlings. In a year $ebay 📈32% vs $chwy 📉45% Valuation Matters. $EBAY is significantly undervalued compared to some e-commerce marketplace high flyers like $W $CHWY Key metrics below to highlight that. Detailed analysis: https://t.co/KTesbKKGhX https://t.co/Npz4usxw0n $EBAY is significantly undervalued compared to some e-commerce marketplace high flyers like $W $CHWY Key metrics below to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1469067804255084549)  2021-12-09T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$RIVN Morgan Stanley ( $MS ): initiated with overweight citing $RIVN potential to be a $TSLA challenger (dec8). $MS was paid $43Mil for $RIVN IPO won't be surprised also eying for 2nd equity offering given how fast it burns cash. That's by and large how the sell-side works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1471680480563113989)  2021-12-17T03:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Luma Y21 Market Report covers major AdTech + MarTech players' M&A activities last year. A good read for these interested in the space. Its LUMA indices cover all my AdTech holdings - $crto $trmr $peri. All [--] under pressure yet I am content with what I hold heading into Y22. LUMAs [----] Full Year Market Report provides an in-depth analysis of 2021s M&A deal activities in Digital Media and Marketing. https://t.co/hDOOE6jqZT #AdTech #MarTech #PublicMarkets #MandA #DigitalTrends https://t.co/PpqWAugSOz LUMAs [----] Full Year Market Report provides an in-depth analysis of 2021s M&A deal activities in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1479664280651849731)  2022-01-08T04:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Size up #BNPL in TAM view: BNPL grows to an estimated $30B+ GMV in Y21 top [--] $AFRM Afterpay and Klarna taking most shares. It competes in unsecured loan space with players in credit cards and personal loans cc: $VA $M $JPM $C $AXP $COF $DFS loan: $LC $UPST $OPFI $SOFI 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1482758980493623299)  2022-01-16T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$DB (Deutsche Bank) 📈5% as one of the catalysts (Germany 10Y gov bond yields) is brewing. ♨ Check out my $db write-up for more short-term catalysts. 👇 I am a big turnaround fan. I am revisiting my turnaround thesis on Deutsche Bank $DB (first published in Apr 2021) and my conviction remains. In addition to its remarkable 2.5Y turnaround results I also discussed some near-term catalysts. https://t.co/r7UmjYVSzn 🧵 I am a big turnaround fan. I am revisiting my turnaround thesis on Deutsche Bank $DB (first published in Apr 2021) and my conviction remains. In addition to its remarkable 2.5Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1489249339922808832)  2022-02-03T14:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$SNAP 📈60% after ER ✅headline narrative: 1st time positive Q net income❗Huge. ❌reality 1: operating loss -$25M only saved by 'other income' $63M (details not found in ppt or release) ❌reality 2: how about $326M adj Ebitda Well that includes $297M SBC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1489454511953481731)  2022-02-04T04:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Deutsche Bank $DB on its Russia exposure last Friday (limited financial exposure) 🟢EUR 1.4B loan exposure (0.3% of gross loan) 🟢very limited derivative exposure net payer on MTM basis. 🟢Russia Tech Center carries certain risks contingency plans in place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1502743555311382532)  2022-03-12T20:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$PERI 📈15% after 1Q22 prelim result. headline: $125M rev beats consensus 119M. The underlying QoQ/YoY breakdown is even better. 👇 ex-TAC Revenue up 44% YoY expense up only 10% - big margin expansion. EV/EBT (LTM) =16x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1511104116952600578)  2022-04-04T22:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@StockTr83260148 Looked at $pubm imo $peri is a better choice. I am long $peri"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1526163470248464384)  2022-05-16T11:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"1Q22 $WMT $TGT ER shows [--]. inflation is even more than the price shock we see as both absorbed 50%+ increased cost. Sales CoG OpEx (YoY%) $WMT: +2.3% +3.5% +4.5% $TGT: +4% +10.4% +5.6% [--]. mildly optimistic food distributor: $unfi* $usfd food producer: $dole* (*) Long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1526889846433890306)  2022-05-18T11:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@CEOTimBaxter @express Looking forward to his first appearance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1529440091357302785)  2022-05-25T12:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$SPGI issued an unusual weak (debt) mkt condition warning 📉10% (and $mco). Yet Debt Capital Market ( $jpm $bac $c $gs) has been saying that for months. It is not the info edge it is the ability to connect the dots that generate alpha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1531982589845819394)  2022-06-01T12:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Lots of insightful info from BofA June consumer report. Highlights: 1/ Gas Spending Gas % card spending 📈 by income group (Jun-21 vs May-22) $50k: 7% - 9.5% $125k: 5% - 6%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1534507554822402048)  2022-06-08T12:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ Goods vs services YoY spending by category Goods: 📉10%- 🟢furiture ( $W $RH) 🟢Home Imp ( $HD $LOW) Service:📈 10%+ led by 🟢airline ( $UAL $AAL $DAL) 🟢entertainment( $FUN $SIX) 🟢Lodging ( $MAR $HLT $ABNB)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1534507558274322433)  2022-06-08T12:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A strong bull/bear case is often backed by a model with many built-in data (e.g. KPIs) A stronger case screams at you from far away just common sense no model required. $COIN was that 9x ago when its MCap = $GS $BLK and 2x $ICE hindsight bias Coinbase $COIN currently traded $400+ $100B+ on fully diluted basis. As a frame of reference: $GS largest IB $120B $BLK largest asset mgt $123B $ICE largest stock exchange $66B $ICE which includes NYSE trade 50x volume of $COIN. My advice: avoid it. Details: https://t.co/aSORkIhi1e Coinbase $COIN currently traded $400+ $100B+ on fully diluted basis. As a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1536860718850617348)  2022-06-14T23:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@irbezek @MadThunderdome $JDSU was only 20% smaller than $MSFT in y2000. Who is todays $jdsu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1538664570897805312)  2022-06-19T23:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If Tencent ( $TCEHY ) gaming is valued as $RBLX (10x P/S) then you pay $120B for: ✔ Wechat MAU = 1/2 Facebook ✔ Wechat Pay revenue 50% $pypl ✔ Tencent Video: 50% subscribers $nflx And equity assets: discord $atvi (5%) etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1542663039626903558)  2022-07-01T00:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm working on a project: "Rise and fall of the Roman Empire" biz version. This blockbuster's slide on its competition vs $nflx just cracked me up. It was Nov07 3Y prior to its bankruptcy. Kodak is next on the list. What name(s) are on your mind that I shall consider"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1544404045330366471)  2022-07-05T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Pinterest Trend for [--] retail brands How they disconnect from their Enterprise Value is fascinating. $NKE 180Bn $LULU 40Bn $GPS 9Bn $CROX 7.4B I know Crocs is hot but wow it still took me by surprise how strong it is on $PINS Wait do we need to confirm GAP is in trouble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1554333927116083200)  2022-08-02T05:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Recall the infamous Citi mistakenly paid $0.9B to Revlon creditors Here is wtf happened via its [--] eyes approval process. btw $REV is in the bankruptcy process $C is suing $REV under subrogation rights"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1559875487115132930)  2022-08-17T12:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"in [----] Brian Wieser from Pivot Research wrote in $fb downgrade notes: "With each passing year digital ads is closer to a point where the market is saturated $meta Rev chart - he couldn't be more wrong. Price chart - he is "finally" brilliant. U takeaway #Investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1576581532143489026)  2022-10-02T14:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Social media platforms' current state: ✔despite TikTok's rapid rise $goog (YT) and $meta continue to dominate. ✔despite overwhelming negative views ppl continue to (increasingly) depend on social media. ✔One and only sub $1B MCap co. among all $10B+ peers. Guess who"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1580615219847786499)  2022-10-13T17:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Companies with $10B+ net digital ad revenue Y22 $100B: $goog $meta $30B: $baba $amzn ByteDance $10B: $tcehy $msft $bidu ✔4 [--] ✔ $goog $meta still dominates ✔ TikTok is a force to reckon with ❓ who is next to join the $10B+ club ( $nflx)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1580881638438772737)  2022-10-14T11:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"In the last [--] months top GSIB (except $cs) have outperformed $SPY by a large margin led by (surprise surprise) Deutsche Bank. $DB 65% $UBS 33% $JPM 27% $BCS 25% $GS 17% $C 11% $BAC 10% $MS 9% $CS -18% $SPY 4.8%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1610743161252347911)  2023-01-04T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weekly Investor Events (1/9-13) [--] Banks' ER: $JPM $BAC $C $WFC (Fri) Watch: credit card data/loan provision [--] ICR conference (Mon-Wed) Watch: retail holiday sales $M $FIVE $AEO $EXPR [--] CPI (Wed) Watch: its impacts on consensus view - terminal rate 5-5.25% (2 more raise)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1612085426134687744)  2023-01-08T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For publicly traded Co among the global top [--] apps by Time Spent: [--] $20B MCap 🟢Spotify $SPOT $17B 🟢Truecaller $13B 50%+ owned by Megatech: 🟢e.g. $goog (5) $meta (3) ❗Wechat $techy has a jaw-dropping 19.5% timeshare ht @InvestmentTalkk http://TRUE-B.ST http://TRUE-B.ST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1613549015227826177)  2023-01-12T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Y22 vs Y21 TV viewing: 🟢Streaming eats Cable's lunch 🟢All top [--] streamers $GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $T (hulu) gained TV viewing shares $goog 5.8-8.7% $amzn 2.1-2.7% $dis 1.6-1.9% $T 3-3.4% $nflx 6.4-75% Y2022 Y2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1616148719317176323)  2023-01-19T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Nick Sleep on Costco $cost in its Y02 letter. A small jeans story to show how Jim Sinegal (Costco CEO) makes principle-driven decisions. Costco had [---] stores in the US in Y02. In the analysis Nick estimated [----] stores at its maturity. Today 845"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1619549763954954242)  2023-01-29T04:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SoFi 📈12% after ER. With a $13B+ loan portfolio it provisioned $15M credit loss and that's the only reference wrt its loan performance in its 40+ pages ppt/pdf. Assuming 1Y avg loan duration 1% default rate = $30M loss. $AXP the best of the best can only hope for 1%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1620139201558872067)  2023-01-30T19:17Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements


"While $snap's financials are predictably depressing (e.g. SBC = 45%+ revenue) its commentaries are often insightful: 🟢brand ads: 11% YoY 📉 note: $roku $vizo 🟢performance ads: 4% YoY 📈 note: $meta $pins 🟢most ads growth in apparel retail e-comm travel and restaurants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1620650379062185984)  2023-02-01T05:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One thing stands out among many ads biz 4Q22 results - Travel sector increases ads $. ( $BKNG $EXPE $TRIP) $PINS: growth in verticals like travel vehicles men's fashion $SNAP: Verticals with progress include apparel retail e-commerce restaurants and travel $GOOG 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1623320112655638528)  2023-02-08T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HOOD we improved if exclude: ❌SBC ❌restructuring charges ❌processing error❓ (that's new😂) Digging into it hidden in footnotes it lost $57Mn allowing clients to sell more $COSM than they held after 25-1 reverse split Dec16. Short squeeze by $hood $COSM MCap $52Mn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1623488701643776000)  2023-02-09T01:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"CEO message Levin's 'Back to Basics' at $iac = Zuck's 'Year of Efficiency' at $meta I like the basic socks/undershirts as new corp meeting swag A plus if it is from Hanes ( $hbi )😃 Disclaimer: own all [--] names with various degrees of convictions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1625261944163688449)  2023-02-13T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ABNB spent 18% of its revenue on sales and marketing in [----] Here are how much its [--] top peers spent. $TRIP 52% $EXPE 52% $BKNG 46% Its brand power is second to none. Prior to ChatGPT I think Airbnb might be one of Google's most hated/envied players.😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1625920820710195201)  2023-02-15T18:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"4 top US pay-TV operators lost over 3.5Mn subscribers in [----]. Co. Subscribers lost Mn (%) ------------------------------- $CMCSA 19.4Mn -2Mn (📉11.2%) $CHTR 14.5Mn -0.7Mn (📉4.7%) $DISH 8Mn -0.8Mn (📉10%) DirecTV (no public data) $roku has the tailwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1626062931312971776)  2023-02-16T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ads revenue % GMV $AMZN vs $EBAY 6.7% vs 1.27% (3Q21) 7.4% vs 1.75% (4Q22) Sellers certainly spend more ads$ on Amazon but eBay is catching up and set 3% as LT target. it might not sound like a growth story but at $80B GMV scale 1% = $0.8B - extra 30% profit not bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1630629235751624704)  2023-02-28T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Lots of panic talking about $SIVB here is the real math. Unrealized Loss ❌$2.5B in Asset-for-Sale ❌$15B in Held-to-Maturity Tier [--] Capital is $17.5B extreme bank run scenario it wipes out all CET1 capital. (game over before that happens) Yet client deposit safe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1633948184186691585)  2023-03-09T21:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"interview w/ $SCHW ceo He: ❌makes untrue claim: Thats why we dont go out a long way in terms of duration." (see table👇) ❌ plays victim game: "investors confused FDIC with SPIC/confused our biz with reg banks". No e.g. $IBKR wasn't down https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/charles-schwab-ceo-says-firm-is-seeing-significant-inflows-even-as-stock-gets-hit-during-banking-selloff.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/charles-schwab-ceo-says-firm-is-seeing-significant-inflows-even-as-stock-gets-hit-during-banking-selloff.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1635745319559331842)  2023-03-14T20:50Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements


"$FRC latest 8k filings With all positive spins what it really means: Thanks (god) to the BTFP program we have been breathing (thou barely through Fed life support) and decided it is a prudent idea to borrow a 30B backup ventilator from $jpm $c $bac $wfc etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1636472284130037763)  2023-03-16T20:59Z [----] followers, 12.3K engagements


"I got a few congrats on my bearish $FRC call. Way too early In a volatile market by price action I might look like a genius in one minute and like an idiot in another. I focus on knowing what happened why each did what they did/said and figure out what they didn't say First Republic Bank $FRC The latest 8k is a thesis-changing one for bulls. I explain what was (and WASN'T) said in the filing. 🟢Fed/FDIC's statutory constraints 🟢Why $30B was uninsured deposit 🟢Why Liquidity-driven insolvency is a concern https://t.co/8dtIJGFXdE First Republic Bank $FRC The latest 8k is a thesis-changing one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1637866121196969984)  2023-03-20T17:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WAL West Alliance Press Release reads: "Total insured deposits represent 68% of total deposits significantly higher than year-end" Under-the-hood reality: It lost 53% of uninsured deposits in March.💩 You got to love the positive spin and creativity here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1643579375126806528)  2023-04-05T11:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@simpleinvest01 Thx for the intro. interesting compiled data. On liquidity $300B+ (mostly FHLB) is more a mgt narrative than anything else. the number is prob calc based on %assets but in reality $300B would expand FHLB BS by 30% and it would bring $SCHW p&l to dark red"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1643720819514671104)  2023-04-05T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"An in-depth analysis of $usb with substance and relevant data from both banking and regulatory PoV. The bearish take is built upon its inadequate reg capital - as the 5th largest bank (after $jpm $bac $wfc $c) it enjoys a more forgiving CET1 ratio calc. Worth a read"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1648452047396835328)  2023-04-18T22:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"job/pay loss among higher-wage workers 📈to 10%. ✅discount stores $WMT $DG $BIG ❌entry-level lux brands $LULU $TPR $RH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1648655806294892544)  2023-04-19T11:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$LVS: An encouraging yet expected 1Q23 ER thanks to a strong Macau rebound. stock $61+ a 65%📈since I last added in Sep [--]. Trimmed 1/3 today as it enters my PT range"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1649048938731958276)  2023-04-20T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SCHW I examine data and show Schwab's (not so) secret formula that it relies on 6% of its asset (cash) to make $. With sharply declining client deposits I lay out a scenario that it could lose 50% of earning power by year-end. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4596283-schwab-could-lose-50-percent-of-its-earning-power-if-deposit-outflow-continues https://seekingalpha.com/article/4596283-schwab-could-lose-50-percent-of-its-earning-power-if-deposit-outflow-continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1650879240026431490)  2023-04-25T15:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I rarely see a German being so playful with his/her words not to mention in an Earnings call. 😀 Christian Sewing - $DB CEO and Chairman"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1651666235505930242)  2023-04-27T19:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What is your best down 80%+ from ATH yet a rough diamond in the garbage can pick I will try my best and give a (likely cheap-shot) pushback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1652420264540381186)  2023-04-29T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Today $JPM ppt vs 1Q23 $FRC ER Things worth noting: ❌Lost $12B deposits since 1Q23 ER ❌$7B+ corp debt/preferred wipeout ❌no mention equity (go figure) ✅ Generous FDIC/JPM loss share terms(win to JPM) ✅$50B 5Y FDIC financing Winner: $JPM Loser: $FRC equity/bond/preferred"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1653008087740035073)  2023-05-01T12:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$abnb it evolves to be an interesting business. its gigantic $20B GMV biz is breakeven. Its profit comes from interest: $10B cash + $8B booking advance. All excessive fees we pay barely support its ops. It is the advanced booking - profit. Do we call that banks😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1656034768062914566)  2023-05-09T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$twlo ER Try to read it fast: "SBC as % of revenue LOWER in Y23 than Y22 REDUCING to 10-12% of rev for Y27." Read fast enough you think "Solid progressSBC lowered/reduced". Read it again❗ It might explain its GC $20M+ SBC rewards. Must countless hours crafting the msg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1656354195086114817)  2023-05-10T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weekly ER and ideas(5/15-19) ER -big retails: $WMT $TGT $HD -big ADR: $BABA $BIDU Tencent -rarely cheap compounders: $TJX $CPRT [--] Ideas: $VNA $DOLE 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1657833084509724678)  2023-05-14T19:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$VNA ($vonoy) Vonovia a German residential RE co. traded 0.4x book value. @BankingIp said it is his [----] conviction buy. And @Hhnwg has a singular focus on the name. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604005-vonovia-bears-wrong https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604005-vonovia-bears-wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1657833087441444872)  2023-05-14T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@qcapital2020 $C a beneficiary of banking turmoil unloading overseas non-productive assets (get paid $$) strong core competency pending reg tests (june) for more shareholder-friendly actions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1658530990547976192)  2023-05-16T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@VadimKotlarov compare $SoFi's segment result to $NU then think again what a 'one-stop superior financial solution' shall look like from data/number not anecdotal examples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1658533433860313088)  2023-05-16T18:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@VadimKotlarov I'm not to make a bull case of $NU. What you said (country low CECL% etc) are good pushback to $nu Bulls (and I'm not one) My point is to say $SoFi is already a 'one-stop superior financial solution' play is quite a stretch. $NU prob might take that title in SouthAm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1658545832973459460)  2023-05-16T18:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndriyCherpakov @DataDInvesting For $SoFi if tech is an option call then that's huge series of M&A failure on its part given how much $/dilution. imo every succ fin co needs to have strong tech think $jpm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1659153504462618626)  2023-05-18T11:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@hzhu_ You are not the first one saying that :-) how much $c can you buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1660363738694709253)  2023-05-21T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BankingIp @FishtownCap What I think is lost in transition is this is a seasoned mgt/oversight team with ownership. They assess assets carefully and handle it in a share friendly way. That goes a long way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1660818093613158400)  2023-05-23T01:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$nvda shareholders are vindicated today. One said: "I held for x years never cast a doubt. If I constantly evaluate and question (like you suggest) I would have sold many times over and missed the multi-bagger". How shall I respond🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1661894080022953985)  2023-05-26T00:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SixSigmaCapital Who are the intelligent voice(s) of $pypl and the space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662198445657174016)  2023-05-26T20:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$PYPL vs $EBAY As of today $ebay (86%📈) is a better investment than $pypl (85%📈) since Paypal spin off in July [----] Revenue (Y2015 - Y2022) Paypal: ($9B - $28B) Ebay: ($8.5B - 10B) Wow - is there a disconnect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662290707728441346)  2023-05-27T02:52Z [----] followers, 40.7K engagements


"Who will be the next having a $Nvda like earning report Amazon Meta Never ever again Google Amazon Meta Never ever again Google"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662459543509516288)  2023-05-27T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@VadimKotlarov yea a little bit. $pypl does a decent job providing all rev and rev excl. eBay YoY comparison"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662506611758317577)  2023-05-27T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"btw there is a 'flaw' in the chart - this is just price not total return. $ebay has been paying dividend since [----] total $3.5/share. Thus div adjusted $ebay outperformed $pypl 10% since spinoff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662510644720021506)  2023-05-27T17:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As an LT $AMZN shareholder I'm thrilled to spot Jeff Bezos' 1st insider buy for a long time. [--] share that's how the richest reveal confidence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662568221671665671)  2023-05-27T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm surprised 50% of votes think $NVDA 1Q23 result is the GOAT/pinnacle. I'm more optimistic than that. If I have to name one multiple data points I collected suggest $amzn has the potential to have jaw-dropping results sometime in the near future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1662834577180696577)  2023-05-28T14:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"In $SoFi I find a bigger bull than @DataDInvesting. "'Amazon of Finance' has 24x upside" said Luke on InvestorPlace "and math checks out" 20% penetration❓ credit card: $JPM 12% $C 5% checking acct: $JPM 9% did Noto say it targets Top [--] FI by Y30 Fantasy = Math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1663218042321371136)  2023-05-29T16:17Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements


"@StockJabber To be fair I would say $tsla is $pltr on steroid. $pltrs closest cousin I think would be $SoFi with some questionable accounting handling that I recently covered. Might Worth a look"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1664379358843117568)  2023-06-01T21:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PYPL is to online payment as $AMZN is to e-comm Math Y22 US retail e-comm $1T ✅Amazon $380B ✅Paypal checkout $360B 38% vs 36% mkt share MCap 20x $MA is to payment as $WMT is to retail ✅Both 25% retail (payment) mkt share MCap 10% diff disconnect or nothing 🍔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1664608413060415490)  2023-06-21T01:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@borrowed_ideas "Why FX Ukraine/Russia and China restrictions" I looked into this recently. This mgt narrative strikes me as an arguably make-to-believe statement. $V $MA XB % GMV recent qtr trend says no to this theory unless arguing online vs offline behavior is vastly diff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1665005377195220992)  2023-06-03T14:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"predicting my drive-in order: $MCD $NVDA $PLTR $MSFT $GOOG all fancy pants combined. In AI relevant data is king. Good data with avg AI algo best algo with avg data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1666184733095591940)  2023-06-06T20:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"On Schwab $SCHW business model flaw "Current model of relying on interest rate spread would be as if Costco's $COST earnings driver wasn't growing membership fees/retail sales but from volatility in food prices" From GIVERNY Cap 1Q23 letter https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-wL9r77sJOjDCY15_k0JAt1-NLoyh1hj/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-wL9r77sJOjDCY15_k0JAt1-NLoyh1hj/view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1666404371062456320)  2023-06-07T11:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@OverlookedAlpha the idea today's $NVDA is Y00's $CSCO is an intriguing one (with merits) but IMO a bit overplayed. will I buy $NVDA today absolutely not. will I sell if I have a pos 100% yes Will I short it chewing on it:-) way overvalued yes a far cry from $csco's past is $nvda's future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1666610534911705088)  2023-06-08T00:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I sold my $UNFI pos 1Y ago. Looking back [--] issues I raised were indeed legit reasons for my exit. The best part $ from $unfi I added to $dole $10/share. Shout out to @kingdomcapadv for our discussions 👇which cemented my decision to double down on $dole Value of #fintwit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1666831733256273922)  2023-06-08T15:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DataDInvesting bcs I don't think $SOFI positioning itself to compete with neobanks. fwiw neobanks haven't carved out a space in this competitive market in the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1666861693127753728)  2023-06-08T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Citi $C ceo J. Fraser on AB conf 6/2 [--] min info-packed chat distilled here. Macro Outlook Japan: feel cheap 1st time ever India: on fire China: more sluggish than expected US over Europe Mexico: 2H24 legal separation Y25 IPO +: no upfront CTA hit -: take longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1668597826811572227)  2023-06-13T12:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Congrats to $SoFi Bulls an epic run 2x since my bearish take (uninvestable). my LT view didn't change and mgt continues to appeal to retails with arguably correct yet oversimplified data. It often reveals sth diff when examining under the hood. That pattern continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669068832818835457)  2023-06-14T19:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DataDInvesting No need to be uncertain - I don't listen to many $SoFi fire chats/conferences. Start with what counts/is legally binding - 10q/10k filing and to a less extent ER release/ppt ER conf call. I don't try to find confidence/transparency from fire chats w/ analysts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669097365557395456)  2023-06-14T21:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DataDInvesting Now people can and often look at the same data/info and form different views for various reasons (like you and I in many instances in this $SoFi case). And I respect that and tbh that's what makes investment exciting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669099378173177861)  2023-06-14T21:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$SCHW under this bullish chart Schwab says: "compressed NIM a smaller interest-earning asset and softer trading is expected to drive a YoY 📉in 2Q rev of 10%11%" that - 25% profit decline. My April warning of losing 50% of earnings by 4Q23 is not fictional it seems"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669321520173252609)  2023-06-15T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PYPL mgt meeting 6/8 ✅Margin mentioned [--] times. PSP is the focus: down (to SMB) out (overseas) value-added (e.g. Risk-as-a-service) ✅Dan gets nostalgia " $AAPL welcomed me into my job by announcing Apple Pay the day I joined PayPal." ✅ 👀👇 this thing is cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669802352352608258)  2023-06-16T20:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"some fun math to illustrate its 'cheapness'. EV =$70B. That is $100/pp(400M) $1k per merchant (35M) With that $SQ Block is 3x over-valued at $35B (EV) with 100M clients and 2M merchants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669805166978056192)  2023-06-16T20:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"No offense this is a good letter. But I can't help: Too often we use $amzn to showcase something. Isn't that like teaching a coach how to find the next Michael Jordan while all he gets are a group of kiddos 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1669907959894233089)  2023-06-17T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I like this big-picture style napkin math - $PYPL is cheap. ( $pypl = 1/20x $amzn while $ma = $wmt 😀) Open to hearing why the math is flawed or on a serious note why Paypal could be a value trap. 🙏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1671332657945346049)  2023-06-21T01:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CCM_Ryan that description - 'emailing money' is how I first heard of this fancy innovative company from a friend of mine who is on top of all things fancy:-) So this was probably $pypl mgt narrative at that time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1671619439492583425)  2023-06-21T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We often see fast-growing $-bleeding cos mgt says it is transitionary projects a 30% net margin in 5Y (comparable to $goog $meta). We fall for it often w/o questioning the underlying competitive advantage to support that. Any co in mind that this rings a bell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1671871454672039938)  2023-06-22T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PGY - Yet Another Personal Loan Player😀 Read w/ interest as an area of my interest and I had plenty🌶takes (e.g. $LC $UPST $SOFI etc) This slide caught my eye: 9.5% mkt place take rate (v.s. 5-6% in $LC $UPST) What magic does it have to demand such a premium 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1672273592996749312)  2023-06-23T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@okieinvestor @OverlookedAlpha haven't been following the space closely since I saw that coming. And I don't think that is a surprise to most players - it is the same "when music doesn't stop you got to keep dancing" vibe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1673541677162680324)  2023-06-27T04:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"FHLB % equity ranking TDLR: Schwab is in a bad neighborhood $SCHW: how could you compare us to banks we are a broker Well bcs that's your biz model paying a penny for the idle cash and lending for big $ (except $300B trapped in 2-3% low-interest facilities) @Seawolfcap @federalreserve Lets all look at the banks above and below $schw. Anyone notice [--] of them have failed this year Big shoutout to $key trading near [----] lows. https://t.co/iIaujGfcXr @Seawolfcap @federalreserve Lets all look at the banks above and below $schw. Anyone notice [--] of them have failed this year Big shoutout to $key"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1675508491195146240)  2023-07-02T14:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"the most ridiculous investor slides of all time ❌Blockbuster in Y07 belittling $NFLX ❌$DWAC in Y21 comping itself to $META $TWTR $DIS $NFLX etc. lessons don't include Netflix in your slide😂 what's yours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1678128603802787841)  2023-07-09T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Why [--] mil joined Zuck vs Elon epic battle Support one of top holdings ($meta) https://www.threads.net/@siyucli https://www.threads.net/@siyucli"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1678198834092965891)  2023-07-10T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Investors often move from equity to CD during rate hiking cycles for 'better' risk-adjusted return. data (from $JPM) says the opposite. During the last [--] rate hiking cycles since Y84 after rate hits the top a subsequent 1Y $SPY far outperformed CD for all except Y2000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1678407224266305538)  2023-07-10T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SoFi CEO: ".at a steady state to have 30% RoE. Banks with 30% RoE trades at 4-5x P/B ratio we are below that." 8-12% RoE is where most banks settle. 20%+ is rare often with a deep moat and high% non-interest income (e.g. $axp). Where does Noto's 30% RoE model after"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1679659837406183425)  2023-07-14T01:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weekly investor Events 7/17-21 Financial ER ✅GSIB: $BAC $MS $GS ✅Regionals*: $ZION $KEY $HBAN ✅brokers: $IBKR $SCHW # ✅consumer credit: $AXP $SYF $DFS Watch: * is unsecured deposit stabilized at regionals # Schwab: Cash sorting stopped or continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1680282204788645889)  2023-07-15T18:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CVNA Awkward math Carvana touts its ever-growing GPU (Gross Profit per Unit) and 2Q23 reached $6.5k The math is unbelievable: it adds Retail Wholesale and other gross profit divided by Total Retail Units❗ By that logic It can acquire a supermarket to increase its GPU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1682505558442516486)  2023-07-29T23:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Excellent comparison to underscore $pypl's oversized SBC comp. $pypl needs to improve earning quality and replace FCF with GAAP EBIT as its core KPI in ER and in the management performance metrics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1683608216423333888)  2023-07-25T04:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When a co. ( $cvna ) touts a great debt deal and Apollo is the creditor you ask when Apollo ever took a nap and let equity holders steal its lunch Not I can think of. Not in $CZR [----] not in $AYVA [----] (ouch). Cavana is no exception. My analysis👇 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619940-carvana-a-crisis-disguised-as-fairytale https://seekingalpha.com/article/4619940-carvana-a-crisis-disguised-as-fairytale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1684308938013933568)  2023-07-26T21:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The core value driver of this deal is $13Bn balance sheet reduction in one move it: ✅saves $90Mn annual interest expense ✅resolved $PACW sub-optimal balance sheet issue ✅minimizing fair value accounting loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1684335428202004481)  2023-07-26T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The deal is a win-win for all involved parties. It boosts market confidence in regional banks that are still recovering from the $SIVB $FRB banking crisis and under distressed valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1684335430664065024)  2023-07-26T22:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DataDInvesting well that together w/ a few hundred mil$ FV adjustment. if that does happen based on $lc mgt commentaries either $lc or $sofi one of them must be full of sh*t. :-)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1684656746285973505)  2023-07-27T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DataDInvesting fwiw these high fico score loans underwritten at 6/7/8% interest rate are under the most pressure today if true fair value is being assessed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1684670884072574978)  2023-08-01T06:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"While doing work on $VNO I saw this. 4Q22 ER in Feb [----] (1 month after Jan 6) an analyst tries to assess its impact as Trump owns 30% of [--] $VNO buildings. The whole exchange didn't even mention DJT's name. I like how Roth strikes a balanced tone and stays mostly on biz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1685316318155694081)  2023-07-29T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Integrity4mkts @blue_chip1 @tbuhl @BenFoldy if Carvana is sure of the plan Garcia would have bought his $126Mn b4 8k induced rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1686106492137586688)  2023-07-31T20:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$pypl AH -6%📉 I guess ppl react to the slide: ❗FCF dropped 1B due to HFS impact. That is a scary sound. But this HFS impact is not the HFS issue many banks had. $PYPL IR did a terrible job. Can elaborate more but for now I'm long and adding tonight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1686847306170056704)  2023-08-03T05:18Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements


"Not a typo in $AMZN I see $60B+ annual Op income potential soon. ✅3P $130B LTM rev if $ebay margin $30B profit ✅Ads $40B LTM rev if $Meta's margin $15B profit ✅AWS $80B LTM rev $18B profit $60B+ earning power all grow 12-20% YoY Q is when it unlocks I think by Y25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1687229363312369664)  2023-08-03T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For many co. I examine its ER like a detective to know where the heck profit comes from 😂 e.g. $OPEN: debt buyback at a deep discount. In rare cases I work the other way around - where does the co hide profit❓ e.g. $AMZN Yes I think Amazon obscures its true earning power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1687492087141351424)  2023-08-04T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PENN alliance w/ ESPN AH price move makes almost 80% of its 10Y warrants (25.5 Mn shares) in the money instantly. Devastating blow to $DKNG 📉9% AH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1689015457536192512)  2023-08-08T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SoFi 10Q is out let me zoom in on its Fair Value adjustment. $496Mn FV adj from $12.2B personal loan 4.1% above book value (see 1). And it sold $50Mn loan 104.1% of its FV. So math checks out right There are [--] issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1689422346770067456)  2023-08-09T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$50Mn is 0.5% of its book. To fairly represent the entire portfolio is quite a stretch even if randomly selected. And it is not randomly selected. Here is what Chris (CFO) said: "We ended up selling had a higher weighted-average coupon but a shorter duration" Hmm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1689422349722927104)  2023-08-09T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@gmdodt not when $SoFi holds them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1689441063734218753)  2023-08-10T00:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CorneliaLake name any biz that ever reaches durable 60-70% ebitda%. not even these huge-moat monopoly boys the world has ever seen: $v $ma $meta $goog $aapl. Even 20% net margin in my math is a reasonably generous one IMO. Not to mention 'the path to $20B' is. quite a high bar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1689747870860156928)  2023-08-10T21:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Many compare $pypl ($60) to $meta ($100) incl. how Cramer reacted. That's a bad take. $pypl needs to show: ✅it can hold on its own against $v $ma $aapl like how $meta fought tikTok $aapl ✅it can cut excessive SBC/OpEx like $meta's year of efficiency After loving PayPal at $200 $225 $250 and even $300 Jim has officially thrown in the towel at $63: "I don't want to own the stock" https://t.co/7tK3dzavek After loving PayPal at $200 $225 $250 and even $300 Jim has officially thrown in the towel at $63: "I don't want to own the stock" https://t.co/7tK3dzavek"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1691248548082315265)  2023-08-15T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PersianMacroGuy if you ask me neither Cook nor Zuck considered Apple's ATT a speed bump that some technical chops can solve with certainty. $meta's spending 'problem' is to some extent a strategic response to Apple. $pypl a graveyard you might be right or might be not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1691270722860011520)  2023-08-15T02:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"As a $c bagholder I can confirm Kuppy's take is prevalent. when there is a sign of banking weakness Citi is the punch bag. most ignore how GFC changed GSIBs $C's strengths from CB to FICC trading and retail divestiture. Sadly in banking perception truth sometimes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1692720291758100967)  2023-08-19T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FDIC chairman's recent "resolution of large regional banks" speech is under-reported yet carries significance. Among its [--] proposals - unrealized losses treatment will have the most impact on large regional banks. $USB $PNC $TFC etc Let us unpack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1692980532282298484)  2023-08-19T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Unrealized loss from AFS is calc as AOCI item and reflected on BS thus impacting book value. However banks (700B assets) can apply an opt-out rule to exempt from regulatory capital calc. All regional banks opt out. Thus their CET1 is a beautified number far from reality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1692980534543024286)  2023-08-19T19:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The proposal if passed only allow opt-out to banks under $100B assets. Thus all banks with $100 - 700B assets are under regulatory capital re-calibration pressure🔥 Let me highlight $SCHW which has tons of AOCI tucked in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1692980536153628884)  2023-08-19T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@okieinvestor ha got it. I see what you mean. that math could work if AI momentum continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1693348308909982140)  2023-08-20T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Off the top of your head (no checking online) As of 2Q23 which US GSIB bank is the most vulnerable to duration risk (e.g. say the highest AFS-HTM unrealized loss as a percentage of total assets) Only [--] choices are allowed I exempt $JPM from the test :-) $C $BAC $GS $MS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694045352423223795)  2023-08-22T17:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I'm impressed 70% are right picking $BAC Do you know $BAC's HTM unrealized loss ($106B) in 2Q23 is = $C ($24B) $JPM($34B) $GS(2B) $MS($10B) and $WFC($38B) combined its HTM unrealized loss % TCE is at a stunning 57.6% Yet it still trades at 1.5x P/TBV More to follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694191446415315155)  2023-08-23T03:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BankingIp btw 'non-event' is a too forgiving way to look at it: in the best scenario it loses some otherwise would-be future material profit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694199680505184325)  2023-08-23T04:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I'm going over a dozen banks 2Q23 10Q (incl. [--] GSIBs [--] top regional and more) to show: ❓ How did they handle duration risk (AFS/HTM loss) ❓ Size of loss vs. its earning power (good case) ❓ Size of loss vs. its total/common equity (worse case) Watch $BAC $SCHW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694370275192668545)  2023-08-23T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@FishtownCap I also think this $csco vs $nvda has relevance. not only "How much longer will the hosted providers be building out" but also "how much longer the providers would pay any price to grab these chips" told myself at $500 shall take a look. here we are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1694694175726289349)  2023-08-24T12:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"which type of moat is more durable ❓High-tech: IP/renovation based no direct consumer exposure e.g. $NVDA $SNOW (but what about $CSCO ) ❓Low-tech: brand-based consumer-facing e.g. $COST $NKE (but what about $PTON) Your take High Tech rules Low Tech wins High Tech rules Low Tech wins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694775169074503911)  2023-08-24T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I wrote about Banc of Cal $BANC and PacWest $PACW merger last month and praised it as a well-crafted deal fair to all involved parties. Price dropped 17% since so now you can get it cheaper than Warburg Pincus paid($12.3/share)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1694916556227015156)  2023-08-25T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Most painful investment. $nls Bought $18/share sold most $2📉90%+ NLS is a home fitness co a $pton competitor. I bought at its Covid peak earning 3Q/4Q20 after I 'missed' $pton oppo and considered NLS' a succ turnaround story and a 'cheap' $pton alternative. Lessons👇 Which thread is of more interest to you I will oblige to the response tmr. [--]. Most painful investment since Covid and lessons learned. [--]. Most satisfying investment since Covid and why. [--]. Luckiest investment since Covid and why victory dance is underserved. Which thread is of more interest to you I will oblige to the response"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1696865989051240558)  2023-08-30T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@thebankzhar while this looks alarming just imagine if we add its unreported unrealized loss (from HTM) to the chart. if mgt were disciplined and didn't have these long duration bond $schw would have been living its dream (printing $) in today's rate-rising env"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1697302291412291886)  2023-08-31T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thebankzhar @PlantainYumm @SEC_digger praying for FDIC and Fed on its side"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1697799819736088860)  2023-09-02T02:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thebankzhar @PlantainYumm @SEC_digger sure IR reserve helps. But as long as regulatory capital calc remains unchanged IR unfavorable move just puts pressure on its profitability $schw still dresses up as 'well capitalized'"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1697801843630313788)  2023-09-02T02:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PlantainYumm @thebankzhar @SEC_digger I'm not confident retail investors watch unrealized losses to decide where to keep their assets. Even for FHLB borrowing IIRC it is mostly TBV so HTM losses no big deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1697808313105137835)  2023-09-02T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Paypal vs Schwab As of 2Q23 unrealized loss as % of AFS portfolio: $PYPL 1.8% $SCHW 8.1% (4x) Paypal sits on 4% fixed rate debts Schwab sits on $40B+ FHLB lifeline support for short-term borrowing. Both currently trade at 18x P/E"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1697989484501999872)  2023-09-02T15:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Good analysis from compound on a tone setting media battle. Very true video is less and less critical for cables and If $dis could not win this lots to think about for $para $wbd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1698041766186770477)  2023-09-02T18:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Plenty of chart-driven bearish takes on $DIS (which I care less about) Together with its latest dispute w/ $CHTR sentiment is low. Is this a high-quality powerhouse under temporary stress (thus an oppo) or under structural decline (thus a value trap) Chewing on it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1699171283886322169)  2023-09-05T21:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Chasing after $NFLX [--] top media co. streaming biz lost $8.4B in 2022: $DIS $4.1B $PARA $1.8B $WBD $2.3B and lost 40-60% MktCap Since Y20 $DIS 43%📉 $PARA 60%📉 $WBD 60%📉 While $NFLX earned $6.5B in Y22 and mkt cap 📈30% since Y20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1699400540029956461)  2023-09-06T12:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FromWhiteCastle @compound248 @davidfaber yea we don't know the details but take a step back: $dis wants status quo raises sub price a bit and continues to milk the cable cash cow till ready to transition to ESPN streaming. $chtr ok w/ price📈 even being the cash cow it just wants to be in $dis streaming future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1701377655977783784)  2023-09-11T23:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Must say $ROKU's 40% impression mkt share is impressive. $amzn + Samsung + $goog + $aapl with a combined market cap of over $5T Is there any other case that a $10B small co can beat all these big boys hands down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1701607506047561815)  2023-09-12T14:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"US Dollar Store Growth (store count YoY%) Store counts by Y22 $DG 18k $DLTR 16k Family Dollar 11k $FIVE 1.1k Most add 5-8% stores annually over 20Y. growth wise $DG $DLTR Family tree quite consistently. $FIVE at a much smaller scale grows at a different velocity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1702390450844246471)  2023-09-14T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@valuations_ @kingdomcapadv fwiw if you expect sizeable rate cuts in [--] mo that would be a more meaningful catalyst to small regional banks than $c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1702536471234642061)  2023-09-15T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Invesquotes @InvestorMexican well articulated. One thing: for US stores servicing densely populated areas (i.e. 100k+ ppl) store count ceiling is 2.5-3k (with few exceptions e.g. $WMT). to think $FIVE can break through implies either it gets a secret formula or goes lower density"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1702883423994417275)  2023-09-16T03:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Invesquotes @InvestorMexican I checked a few $five locations in different states. it looks like they cover urban and suburban (semi-urban as you said) but not rural areas that I am aware of (which makes sense to me). if i have to guess it probably targets 20k+ ppl areas. lmk if you know what co says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703083482233057352)  2023-09-16T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Why was every man wearing pink pants in the pic❓ When a vendor had a large qty of unsold pink fabric Cal Turner (Dollar General Founder) turned them into men's pants sold for $1 allowing value customers to save while staying. fashionable. Value has a long history in $DG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703245143967510848)  2023-09-17T03:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@oscar100_x On 2% OpEx up 40% is shrinkage hard to predict how it evolves. the remaining I think mostly from inflation and will stay. Price up larger store format (and a few proj) to get higher store sales etc. to catch up with Op% the Q is are they losing a competitive edge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703834460129480776)  2023-09-18T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@oscar100_x call me an optimist I had a hard time believing heightened shrinkage is here to stay forever. tbh if that turns out to be true The US equity market might be a losing bet for a long time to come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703834991572996568)  2023-09-18T18:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@chasesfish @oscar100_x sir by asking that Q you disqualified yourself as $dg's target customer :-)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703844399975731599)  2023-09-18T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@babykswanson the 'worst' case collect FCF in 2Ys liquidating cash/debt = breakeven. anything beyond is profit $. a diff way to ask: what could go wrong here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1703905006598955180)  2023-09-18T22:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$DG Facts "Dollar General is neither Dollar nor General" ✅70%+ of its merchandise priced under $10 (vs $DLTR everything $1.25) ✅ $DG median household income is $55k far lower than other discount stores: $DLTR $60k+ $WMT $70k+ $TGT 80k Give a like if you want to know more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704213310403486199)  2023-09-19T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BTaylorInvestor @tclaugus2 thx for sharing. I recall looking at it a few years back the thesis back then was huge RE value. I didn't follow it closely but the mgt shows little incentive/urge to unlock shareholder value. I would chew on that concern"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704286896069685629)  2023-09-20T00:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@InvestmentTalkk Something special about Nashville TN where everyone gets a fair shot to be CEO $DG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704556928041459824)  2023-09-20T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Since [----] which co. do you think (no checking) is the strongest earning compounder 👇 (i.e. EPS CAGR%) $V $DG $WMT $GOOG Explain your thoughts for a bonus point.😀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704636687819718963)  2023-09-20T23:20Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements


"Survey results👇 and the actual data Co EPS growth since Y10 CAGR% $DG 10x 19.6% $V 8x 17.5% $GOOG 7x 16.5% $WMT 1.3x 2.2% $DG takes the cake. I'm impressed 23% get it right. (b4 studying $dg I would pick $goog or $v)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704829760285573285)  2023-09-21T12:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 @TravisWiedower @borrowed_ideas @kb_india_bglr @CundillCapital anecdotes Sure price-driven narrative by modern media 100% agree Here is some data: $DG remodelled/relocated 1.8k to 1.9k stores/year since Y20 so roughly 10%/year industry practice is store reno every 7-10y so $dg is stretching it (at 10y) but still within a fair range"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1704943774114140410)  2023-09-21T19:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kevinduffy1929 @CCM_Brett good data and fair question on "what's changed" - for one store growth is gradually approaching its ceiling and the final land grab is harder than earlier bites and FDO will likely (finally) give DG a run for its money on these grabs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1705003002237420008)  2023-09-21T23:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@kevinduffy1929 @CCM_Brett No position in either. doing some work on $DG currently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1705050693885645011)  2023-09-22T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BankingIp @Frugalbuck @joshluschen @VadimKotlarov @DataDInvesting In the high-end unsecured consumer loan (cc included) space $AXP is the golden standard. No institution I'm aware of beats its performance consistently over time. however I'm seeing models implying $sofi will do just that. consistently beating AXP's underwriting results"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1705227459732320666)  2023-09-22T14:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap every week closed near low than high. whatever that chart pattern is called must be pretty bearish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1705382959174619142)  2023-09-23T00:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My inaugural work on substack is $DG I went over its history what led to its success and current struggles. I build a model with key levers for you to judge its fair value If you enjoy the piece pls subscribe and share my work at "Under The Hood""  
[X Link](https://x.com/siyul/status/1706043428448961004)  2023-09-24T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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