#  @ragingbullcap Jake LaMotta
Jake LaMotta posts on X about $cron, $ogi, debt, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/interactions)
- [--] Week [-------] +209%
- [--] Month [-------] -32%
- [--] Months [---------] +27%
- [--] Year [---------] -5.10%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/posts_active)
- [--] Week [--] -24%
- [--] Month [---] +1.80%
- [--] Months [---] +51%
- [--] Year [---] +19%
### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/followers)
- [--] Week [-----] +1.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +6%
- [--] Months [-----] +18%
- [--] Year [-----] +41%
### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1756716789172494336/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) #3324 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities)
**Social topic influence**
[$cron](/topic/$cron), [$ogi](/topic/$ogi), [debt](/topic/debt), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$hhh](/topic/$hhh), [market cap](/topic/market-cap) #646, [market](/topic/market), [$cphto](/topic/$cphto), [business](/topic/business) #4028, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet)
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@icbarrett](/creator/undefined) [@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@nestbetter](/creator/undefined) [@hcapinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@lars57360069](/creator/undefined) [@uzocapital](/creator/undefined) [@cupofcoffeecap](/creator/undefined) [@davidkatunaric](/creator/undefined) [@sharpeshark](/creator/undefined) [@hycorps](/creator/undefined) [@diegola95810478](/creator/undefined) [@organigraminc](/creator/undefined) [@berkelkip](/creator/undefined) [@siyul](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@markemerritt](/creator/undefined) [@capitaloptimism](/creator/undefined) [@adhdcapital](/creator/undefined) [@pedrolamento](/creator/undefined) [@mrneutralman](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)](/topic/$hhh) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [CannabisCoin (CANN)](/topic/cannabis) [LandBridge Company LLC (LB)](/topic/$lb) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [Cronos (CRO)](/topic/cronos) [Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR)](/topic/$clpr) [Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL)](/topic/$tpl) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [British American Tobacco (BTI)](/topic/$bti) [JOE (JOE)](/topic/$joe) [FTC Solar, Inc. (FTCI)](/topic/$ftci) [Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)](/topic/$cnk) [Altria Group Inc (MO)](/topic/$mo) [HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC)](/topic/horizon-kinetics) [Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)](/topic/$miax) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Kohl's Corporation (KSS)](/topic/$kss)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Any other ideas that fit the bill"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1758178878613307519) 2024-02-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@backoftheenvelo Right. As much as I thought the case against $JBLU was weak on a nuanced interpretation of the law there was at a least a plausible appeal to the equities (protecting the most price sensitive consumer). Here there are no discernible fairness concerns- no one needs lux fashion"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1758897184236347794) 2024-02-17T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@torowallstreet @puppyeh1 @ITOLDYA6 Ive looked at $GENL.L before. Several way to win there but seems incredibly hairy to me. Any insight into the KRGs ability and willingness to pay the potential Award Will take a look at Palt"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1761796873809973350) 2024-02-25T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@evfcfaddict You're a legend Andy. Thanks"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762203804337049986) 2024-02-26T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties while AMR is likewise NRP's largest customer (1/4-1/3 of sales). Yet NRP has barely budged. $AMR reported large upticks in both met coal sales price and sale volume in Q4'23. This is great news for $NRP a company which owns the mineral rights to of $AMR's active mining ops (rec'ving payments based on coal sale price/sale volume) and which I'm heavily long. $AMR reported large upticks in both met coal"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538286764146791) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, 41.8K engagements
"2/ $NRP is a quality business. It owns 13mm acres of mineral rights interests which it leases out to operators who pay royalties (%of gross rev) on the resources (largely met coal) mined from the properties. The lessees bare all the associated costs. You don't need me to tout the virtues of a high margin royalty biz.take it from Uncle Warren https://x.com/alphaideas/status/1347441821442600960s=20 https://x.com/alphaideas/status/1347441821442600960s=20"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538288714510734) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ It's a great way to play coal with less commodity price risk. NRP's leases include minimum payment obligations meaning they still get paid some even if demand/pricing collapses"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538290727841867) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ The company is optically cheap at around 4.3x LTM FCF (and AMR print indicates fcf isn't set to decline materially). BUT it's actually even cheaper if you look closely. $NRP owns 49% of Sisecam Wyoming one of the world's most advantaged producers of Soda Ash. Last year the GP of the 51% stake took out its LPs at $25/share implying a private mark for NRP's stake of $500mm give or take. Backing out the soda ash segment the core mineral rights biz is available for 3x fcf"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538292216803825) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ $NRP is an MLP meaning it is structured to pay distributions to its unit holders. Dists. are presently only $3/share as FCF has been tied up cleaning up the cap structure: debt prefs and warrants. But the clean up is nearly done with debt balance down to $200mm from $1.5B and vast majority of prefs and warrants gone. By next year essentially all fcf should be available for distribution to the commons.perhaps a 20% yield on the present market cap The stock will have nowhere to go but up"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538294028722296) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"8/ Final note - as an MLP there are certain tax implications particularly for retirement accts and non-US residents. Also fairly illiquid. DYODD"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762538298550222971) 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There's absolutely coal price risk here but much less so than miners. Further assuming sales don't collapse in [----] you enter [----] with most if not all of the debt and prefs extinguished. At that point even if cash flow runs at 50% of present levels ($150mm) you're still looking at around $10/share available for annual distributions to the commons +10% yield on the present market cap. As @crowdturtle puts out this is less about playing coal and more about an event angle - a vastly improved cap structure that is going unnoticed and is going to free up piles of cash for commons"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762597411132944659) 2024-02-27T21:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NRP Weird take perhaps but this setup in many ways rhymes with that of Cipher's $cph.to imo: [--]. Quality: cash generative royalty businesses with minimal to no reinvestment needs - i.e. all cash is distributable to owners w/o compromising operations; [--]. Cheap: free cash flow yields that are far too high given the economics; [--]. Opportunity: controlling shareholder/operators who saw vast sums of their net worth vanish in the 2010s due to troubles caused by poor M&A (Robertson on his own accord; Mull due to yielding the reigns) but who have tirelessly worked to right the ship and who are only"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1762974467784143344) 2024-02-28T22:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@puppyeh1 @ArpatSood @EsotericInv Horrendous Always risk to these but Ghana being the seat is a preposterous outcome"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1763012822437401008) 2024-02-29T01:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that + the cash ($94m) + Star X receivables ($34m) the operating business is available for $820m which puts it at 7.6x the FY2024 adj. EBITDA guide"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1764337867860443146) 2024-03-03T17:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$OPRA Big pre-market move. I am in at around [-----] and happy to keep adding below $16. Would not be surprised to see $20 on this soon which is 12x [--] EBITDA excl. the non operating balance sheet items. 1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that + the cash ($94m) + Star X receivables ($34m) the operating business is available for $820m which puts it at 7.6x the FY2024 adj. EBITDA guide. 1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that +"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1764645964374069573) 2024-03-04T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"No new buyback initiated but would expect either that or a special is coming in H1 this year. Situation looks like similar to early [----] when the company was again carrying a good % of its market cap in non operating assets"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1764645967473606774) 2024-03-04T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ $TWM.TO I've been quite wrong on this one so far. What happened 1) Unexpected management change at an extremely disappointing moment (that team had been doing a great job executing on the plan to close the sotp discount) ; 2) $LCFS.TO made up a huge chunk of the SOTP value and I should have more conservatively underwritten what might happen should lcfs shares decline as they have"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1764686073546838363) 2024-03-04T16:15Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"2/ I want to be careful of thesis drift but with that said this is deep-value now at $0.81/share ($345 market cap). When they report on Mar. [--] I expect the balance sheet to show net cash (pro forma Pipestone cash net cash is $45m). Let's assume net cash is $20m. That puts the EV at $320m. They paid $210m for PGR alone in [----] and that was likely a bargain price. That means we get everything else for $100m which includes: the LCFS stake (alone worth $150m at $6.30/share) the Brazeau River Complex (which they paid over $230m for nearly a decade ago) Acheson (cost basis +17m likely worth much"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1764686075593658428) 2024-03-04T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockspotify @rembrandtph Which acquisition are you referring to"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1765464035338633608) 2024-03-06T19:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$NRP Strong results as expected with $ 78.5m Q4 FCF FY $313m (record). Importantly only 72m of prefs (with $172m redeemed during the year) and $20m of warrants remain. Cap structure should therefore be fully cleaned up by sometime in [----] (mgmt said 1.5-2 years though i suspect it's much closer to 1.5) at which point cash will gush to the commons. There are definitely some headwinds in the near-term (soda ash declines steel demand etc.) and the current fcf run-rate is definitely not sustainable. That said it doesn't need to be sustainable to do well; e.g. w/o any senior interests $200m in fcf"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1765777371422957816) 2024-03-07T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON only starting to do the work here but what's the catch - Net-net (10% discount to cash 15% to NCAV) with minimal burn - Topline growth and not too far from breakeven - Decent brand value (Spinach Peace Naturals) - Interesting partnerships providing broad geographic presence - 40% ownership by Altria per $1.8B investment in [----] at an implied market cap of $4B Is this a case of the market confusing uncertainty with risk - i.e. it seems this could play out any number of ways but tough to envision an outcome where money is lost at this valuation (absent enormously destructive capital"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1766178914982859104) 2024-03-08T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@cdoebwnd all valid questions for the upside for sure but do they really impact the downside This is already near liquidation value before accounting for the real estate. The worst case seems priced in no"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1766214420710015269) 2024-03-08T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON the more I dive in the more attractive this seems. Lot of moving pieces but once you cut through it: a growing market leader (#1 flower and edible in Canada) with a lot of optionality in an industry with numerous near-term tailwinds.available at a Ben Graham valuation"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1766217718758306186) 2024-03-08T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@HotDogCap Why is CRON able to trade on the NASDAQ Pardon my ignorance on the regulatory landscape. US listed Big Tobacco can invest but not control until legalization"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1766224740203532774) 2024-03-08T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Never underestimate the propensity for bad management to get in the way of a sure thing. There are few if any ideas with a margin of safety wide enough to immunize against incompetence"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1767671155261939954) 2024-03-12T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yes I just got off a stunningly incoherent earnings call"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1767672522642792552) 2024-03-12T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON "an industry where so much capital has been incinerated.that the capacity for investors to rationally assess risk/reward has been fundamentally compromised." Latest piece on Cronos Group now up at link in bio"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1767911772051185694) 2024-03-13T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 Truly bizarre this is available as a net-net which is a status generally reserved for enterprises with huge terminal value risk unsustainable rates of cash burn or otherwise no discernible path to value creation. $CRON does not fit the bill"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1767950966999917030) 2024-03-13T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON While excise tax reform would obviously be welcomed (and will come) the longer the government drags its feet on this issue the better for Cronos. Why Because Cronos is built to withstand this hit to its margins whereas much of the competition is not. The government is in effect weeding out the competition for us the longer this goes. Another example of how there are many paths to winning here. $CRON The linked article reiterates many of the points I raised in today's write-up regarding the Canadian excise tax. At some point likely soon this tax will be reformed and those producers that"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1767987392697245710) 2024-03-13T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Many Canadian cannabis companies have gone the way of insolvency and the excise tax is often the precipitant of the insolvency proceedings". So there are two key things of note here: 1) the excise tax is killing $CRON's competitors; and 2) the excise tax is ironically killing the government's own ability to profit off the excise tax (by exterminating the source). The latter point implies the gov' is itself incented to reform the tax"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1768003944662389224) 2024-03-13T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@inner_scorecard @45WallSt @NICKRADICAL4 @nim_chef @kujakujo I think OGI is probably a better business (at least for now) and I really like the communication around the BTI partnership. But Cron is cheaper and Im in love with the balance sheet which is why thats my fighter of choice for now"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1768060407220977752) 2024-03-13T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @45WallSt @inner_scorecard @nim_chef @kujakujo @Organigram_Inc @cronosgroup Equipping OGI with Cron's balance sheet would create an unstoppable force"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1768311249706631633) 2024-03-14T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stoiccapital72 I expect over time this will turn into a darling compounder like KKR BX and some of the other alts which likewise struggled to be understood as public companies early on"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1768607034641891771) 2024-03-15T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree with all of this. Anecdotally I am in Canada at the moment and it has been really interesting to see how many folks many 60+ years of age who have a limited history of smoking cannabis and have avoided doing so due to bad experiences (i.e. getting too high by accident) but who are now regularly consuming edibles. Why Because the dosing is controlled and consistent - they find a product that feels right to them and they stick with it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1768700446971978202) 2024-03-15T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For example at $20/share $Tdw was available for but a tiny fraction of the replacement cost of its fleet. With a derisked balance sheet all you really needed to determine was whether offshore might turn out to be something of value in the world moving forward"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769413334187536773) 2024-03-17T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ROIV is in a way the $CRON of biotech in that the market is paying you to take the business ($6.2B net cash + $2.5B $IMVT stake (total $8.7B) vs. market cap of $8.2B) and in exchange you get all kinds of free call options and catalysts that could result in large upside (e.g. IMVT sale [--] ongoing P2 and [--] trials upside from the $ABUS litigation optionality from the cash). The story is definitely not as clean as $cron given cash burn uncertain viability of pipeline and IMVT stake could obviously end up being worthless but it makes no sense that the market is giving us all of this optionality"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769732001383231873) 2024-03-18T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ On the topline demand also seems to be picking up. More than 50% of Sportmans' business is firearms related and a decent chunk of that is surely Smith and Wesson products. $SWBI noted in their recent earnings PR that "We continue to expect the firearm market to experience healthy demand through the [----] election cycle" and "inventory in the distribution channel declined from October levels in terms of actual units and weeks of inventory indicating strong sell through of our products at retail." That's some evidence that sales aren't falling off a cliff"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769741113470963967) 2024-03-18T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ Meanwhile on the other categories (e.g. camping outdoor apparel etc.) demand also looks solid per competitors. $DKS just reported its largest quarterly sales in history while $HIBB sales have held up and are guiding flat for next year. Not perfect comps but this suggests to me that unless there is some idiosyncratic risk with Sportmans I am missing then demand should be fine"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769741114909528472) 2024-03-18T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI excise tax reform is not a question of if but of when. There is a very clear catalyst on the horizon that is going to materially improve profitability for producers. Yet despite this being telegraphed no one seems to care. https://thedeepdive.ca/canadian-cannabis-producers-face-severe-financial-distress-report/ https://thedeepdive.ca/canadian-cannabis-producers-face-severe-financial-distress-report/"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1769784442258608352) 2024-03-18T17:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ttril22 Both but much larger position in Cronos for the time being"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1770289942062653568) 2024-03-20T03:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The longer I do this the more I become convinced that betting on companies getting acquired like this probably isn't the best approach to compounding wealth. Sure you may make a quick 50% but you're probably paying hefty taxes on that gain and then you need to go find something else to deploy your capital into. And at some point you'll likely get it wrong and take large a drawdown. No doubt some have real skill doing this but most investors are likely kidding themselves that this strategy will work well for them in the long run. $LFCR Another example. I have said it before and Ill say it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1770496013347741819) 2024-03-20T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2. Relatedly margin of safety: Given the valuation premium is due to optimism around Rescheduling the US MSOs are more exposed to downside in the event Rescheduling fails to materialize. On the other hand CRON and OGI are not being given any credit for the Rescheduling opportunity and likely still do well if no progress is made in the US given that they have huge upside merely from the Canadian opportunity alone. We have more 'shots on goal'"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771180522720432441) 2024-03-22T14:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3. Finally misunderstood competitive advantages. Operating w/ cannabis as a Schedule I substance has forced MSOs to inherently develop in an awkward inorganic way such that they are not equipped to survive the competition that will ensue once the market opens nationally. CRON and OGI on the other hand have invested heavily in brand and product development (brands are how market share is won in largely commoditized consumables - think beer tobacco etc. ) have narrow focus (i.e. production) and have $MO and $BTI backing them (and the large distribution networks cheap capital and know-how that"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771180524620411189) 2024-03-22T14:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON $OGI Just this week we have had: 1) Partial German legalization 2) The FDA finding that cannabis has clear medicinal benefits clearing the way for the DEA to reschedule it and 3) A report released by a federal committee in Canada recommending a new excise tax model Three jurisdictions in which we have enormous potential economic interests all making clear progress on improving regulatory hurdles in just one week. How's that for catalysts Now imagine the magnitude of the move when the Canadian and US proposals crystallize into law. Just a matter of time"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771561618003927161) 2024-03-23T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In which industries might such a transformation be presently underway Cannabis office real estate in blue chip cities What else In that downturnthings happen internally to businesses. They downsize they right size they consolidateand therefore you get a much better business if it survives.and you get a competitive landscape that potentially changes. In that downturnthings happen internally to businesses. They downsize they right size they consolidateand therefore you get a much better business if it survives.and you get a competitive landscape that potentially changes"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771923161589715196) 2024-03-24T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cannabis: in Canada indoor licensed production area has declined 40% from a high of 2.2m m2 in May [----] to $1.7m m2 as of Sept. [----]. Essentially every month sees further declines. In [----] 40% of CCAA insolvencies were cannabis companies; a further 12% last year"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771926321611825597) 2024-03-24T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The office story is perhaps more difficult and in earlier innings but the trend looks to be moving the right way:"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1771926323415450024) 2024-03-24T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@QuantStrategist Yeah I dont think the German opportunity is as of yet that big of deal. However its telling how much the sector moved last week of how poor sentiment has been. Imagine the move when there are real regulatory changes in Canada and the US"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1772013139887845377) 2024-03-24T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah I hear that though that sentiment is largely what's creating the opportunity here. CRON was net-net as recently as like [--] days ago before the big run here. Very rapid industry consolidation combined with inevitable and quickly materializing regulatory tailwinds and there should be a pot of gold awaiting for a small number of these companies. Big Tobacco being the large shareholders in a couple these names provides some comfort. Time will tell. It was the same thing I was constantly hearing two years ago when I bought Tidewater ('can't even trust offshore management') and that hasn't"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1773173235485475235) 2024-03-28T02:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks for sharing. I was notified of this report last week but had not yet read it. Decent overview of the set-up but I don't understand their financial projections in the slightest for reasons I shared here. I hear you that it's always wise to be skeptical underwriting pre-rev pharma but their numbers don't make any sense to me at all"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1773793808959918397) 2024-03-29T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"99m SEK of sales in [----] with half of that being the milestones - so about 5m USD in sales They then note that there will be a significant increase in sales by [----] which they don't include in their underwriting. That increase is going to be a lot more than "significant". If Craig and Cipher are right they should be earning that or more from Canadian royalties alone"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1773795934280802720) 2024-03-29T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Favorite longs heading into Q2: $MOB.ST $CRON $CLMT $ROIV $TDW + a new position I'll likely be sharing on @evfcfaddict's spaces event on April [--]. $CPH.TO still my second largest holding after TDW and haven't sold a share but I'm not sure we see much movement until we get further news on the foreshadowed M&A"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1773800589844987981) 2024-03-29T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I think thats because its highly likely that its going to be generating huge profits relative to its present market cap in a couple years. Its deep value you just need conviction about the (not so distant) future to believe that. Grow + value is where the generational wealth gets made in many cases"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1774522980938154213) 2024-03-31T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TrentBlair19 The ideal situations are those where we can find each present"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1774987165463683234) 2024-04-02T02:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ogi just did a sizeable equity raise so they should be okay for liquidity. I agree its probably a better business but I still favor Cron due to the balance sheet and the optionality that comes with it the Spinach brand (which is really starting to develop allegiance based on my scuttlebutt) and valuation. Another way to view it: ogi is the more likely [--] bagger cron has more downside protection (still could be a [--] bagger depending on how they allocate the cash which for now is a drag on the equity)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775779539081150521) 2024-04-04T06:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is clearly in and shares offer well over 100% from here over the next year or so. My takeaways:"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775922927709696147) 2024-04-04T16:26Z [----] followers, 13K engagements
"3)sales came in at the low range citing continued weakness in the consumer which is likely to continue for the quarters ahead. Nevertheless management guided to 55m NTM EBITDA which puts shares at less than 5x this sub-normal figure (way too cheap)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775925398934626332) 2024-04-04T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can hold on to forever at an enormous discount. It doesn't take a financial savant to ascertain that these will be worth many multiples in the decades to come.it merely requires the ability do nothing and wait. https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 US land exposures been painful in recent days. Some of the best land in"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776281458606252040) 2024-04-05T16:11Z [----] followers, 18.8K engagements
"Correction: I am now long $HHH at $66.80. Silly Mr. Market. $HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can hold on to $HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776289371278151897) 2024-04-05T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@masiero_giacomo Yup lol. Pretty confident you'll be sitting on a [--] bagger in a decade"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776301058630754566) 2024-04-05T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aeleons @AmheShay Sorry I missed this. Yeah obviously the YPF stuff is a catalyst. But value is its own catalyst over time. The returns on capital are just way too high for this to be a value trap over the long-term. I'm happy to wait for the market to come to its sense"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776309783978500472) 2024-04-05T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah Ive seen this. Anyone who thinks $HHH and $JOE wont create value should probably read about Donald Bren. The insight with things like this is that all the value is in the far distant future. Deferred gratification is the name of the game if your goal is truly generational wealth"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776326725686772183) 2024-04-05T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I should probably own the $VAL warrants shouldnt I"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776332296246739261) 2024-04-05T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@capitaloptimism I have every intention of becoming a JOE shareholder one day hopefully soon. HHC trading down below the Ackman put just makes it a little more brainless. JOE is honestly probably better I just have a thing for stocks that have been selling off hard"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776337492255367382) 2024-04-05T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Take a spin through the investor deck and ask yourself whether it makes sense that you can buy the equity for this incredible collection of quality assets for only some $3B. That doesnt remotely pass the smell test to me. Then ask yourself whether that equity could conceivably be worth $30B a decade or so from now. I would answer definitely: yes. You can create elaborate models trying to pinpoint the intrinsic value but sometimes it really is that simple. These guys are building world class cities throughout America tailored to very obvious demographic/socioeconomic trends and retaining huge"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776416772092285300) 2024-04-06T01:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Among other things: 1) a tough period for real estate exacerbated by COVID and then the following period of rate hikes; 2) a lot the capital looking for real estate in public markets is focused on dividend paying REITs rather than something like this where the priority for cash flow is reinvestment; 3) relatedly these developments take a very long time -- as I said the real value for these things is years out and most don't have that timeframe; 4) many investors don't trust Bill Ackman and think he will be the only shareholder that ever makes money out of this (these fears I think are"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1776420383899476335) 2024-04-06T01:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its the consistent violation of this rule that explains why despite the fact many are capable of putting up 20%+ annual returns that so few people actually compound their way to meaningful wealth. Buy right and sit tight. The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily. And yet many simply cant resist the compulsion to trade out of a very high probability multibagger simply because its gone up a mere [--] percent. Picked up some more $MOB.ST here. The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily. And yet many simply cant resist the compulsion to trade"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777362496359370788) 2024-04-08T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ Because each project requires an ad hoc approach BQE is often brought in during the pre-operating phase to help devise a tailored solution. This might involve the use of BQE's patented technologies or it might require BQE to develop a new approach. Fees for these services are segmented as "Technical Services" which have grown at a 40% CAGR since [----]. Impressive growth but it pales compared to what comes next"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502779969581444) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ Not every project will move into its operating phase but for those that do BQE will handle water treatment. This is a very good recurring revenue business: BQE essentially charges monthly fees or a toll based on the volumes of water treated. This service is required for the entire operating life of the mine as well as for a period post closure meaning these contracts can last for well over [--] years. This is a very high-margin business and significantly BQE's partners bear the associated capex meaning it's an asset light model and requires little reinvestment for continued growth.And is it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502781747904541) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7) In addition to the growth the quality of this business needs to be emphasized. It requires very little capital to grow and BQE possesses a number of competitive advantages due to its patents sticky long-duration relationships regulatory requirements early mover advantage and a general lack of competitors in the space (60% of projects are sole sourced)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502788177764687) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"8) Capital allocation. Firstly there has been virtually no dilution for the better part of a decade.that plus the absence of debt is a testament to how little capital is needed to grow. So the majority of cash flow is available to distribute. The company has initiated a buyback for 5% of shares. The float is incredibly tight with 1.25m shares out and over half of that held by insiders and larger investors. So not only will buybacks be accretive given the stock is way too cheap but shares are going to be in increasingly short supply"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502789951996020) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"9) Okay valuation. Shares trade for $43 which is good for a market cap of CAD$53m. With $7m of cash and de minimis debt EV is around $45m. With continued ramping of new recurring revenue projects BQE should easily be able to do close to $10m of EBITDA by [----]. 4.5x EBITDA is way too cheap for a company growing this fast with such underlying economics. At 10x EBITDA the stock would be worth closer to $100/share after accounting for incremental cash build. And it should be worth more over time as new recurring revenue is stacked on top of preexisting contracts which won't be rolling off for"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502791751418356) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"10/ Why does the opportunity exist In addition to being an illiquid Canadian venture stock I'd posit two things. First the company touches the mining sector which likely causes many to dismiss it and miss the underlying quality of the business. Second and relatedly the company previously earned most of its income from the sale of extracted metals (mainly copper) out of certain JVs in China; this is a declining and cyclical business that has masked both the quality and growth of the core the business. This is becoming an increasingly small part of the business though there is upside if the"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502793387114695) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"11/ Insiders own a good chunk of stock and have done a really good job transforming this business. From all appearances these guys make for good leaders in what is a quasi-private investment given the tightness of the float. There's a fair bit more to the story but I'll save that for the blog"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502795350106229) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"12/ Note: This is illiquid and often has a fairly wide bid-ask. I'm also being imprecise in my numbers/estimates and language. DYODD as always. I'm personally long for an average cost of $40/share"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777502796843241554) 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Never hurts to ask👀 I think I found the answer I think I found the answer"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1777755742507761824) 2024-04-09T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"6/ Yes HHH is superficially a far more complex story but I'd posit the key to the thesis lies in these same deceptively simple insights. The company is building and retaining interests in word class cities throughout America that benefit from very real and secular demographic and socioeconomic tailwinds. Are these assets likely to be something of value [--] or [--] years from now Is that value highly certain to be far greater than the market is currently pricing today And is the direction of interest rates for the next couple years going to have any material impact on the value of our interest"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778141635450413077) 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7/ It is easy to get bogged down in the minutiae the jargon the prevailing mood around the company and the industry but if we zoom out what I see is collection of high quality near infinite duration assets with every tailwind behind them.available at a very clear discount to NAV. A great set-up for retail investors with a long-horizon IMO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778141637090353452) 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One thing to consider is the stock is now well below Ackman's recent buying. Another is that interest rate sensitivity however silly I think it is for this company should work the other direction too - i.e. if and when there's a cut the stock should rally. To be clear that's not a relevant consideration for my thesis which is simply the opportunity to buy an infinite duration piece of America at a steep discount"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778166995298754732) 2024-04-10T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AC173467321 Is the balance sheet really problematic though Vast majority of debt matures years out from here and most of it is fixed or swapped"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778168627742843361) 2024-04-10T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@fintwit_wannabe @AC173467321 You believe that to still be the case now four years removed"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778170902284292511) 2024-04-10T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@returnoncap Well he's actually stepping down but there will be another Pershing person joining the board. I am not sure how much there is to read into this. I've seen some nefarious intentions imputed based on this but it's probably nothing"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778186446685544516) 2024-04-10T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI The Canadian federal budget will be released next week. Will it include excise tax reform In my view the competitively advantaged well-financed LPs stand to benefit from whatever decision is made: obviously if the tax is reformed margins will explode; however if the status quo is retained consolidation will continue at an accelerated pace further deepening and entrenching the competitive positioning of the blue-chips. A "Capital Returns" case study in real time. "40 percent of producers may go out of business over the next [--] months as the federal government starts cracking down on"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778852200137040117) 2024-04-12T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I added a bunch of $OGI here. Either we get a major move next week on excise tax reform; if not a chance to buy a firm whose bright future will only become brighter with the continuation of this draconian tax.at a huge discount to its future earnings power"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778853619497922594) 2024-04-12T18:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@parlay_town I tweeted out my disappointment when it happened. But the stock has overreacted and now the balance sheet is very strong. So its even more interesting for new shareholders here than it was immediately preceding the dilution"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1778855090159595744) 2024-04-12T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"💯. Buy quality long-duration when sentiment is poor due to near-term uncertainty but where the business is also highly certain to be worth a lot more over an extended time horizon. BUR definitley fits the bill as does my current favorite theme $HHH $JOE. Names like this are unownable to any capital constrained by short-term mandates. I always ask: even if X bear case does play out is it going to make any difference to the firms value over the long-term Often the answer is clearly no"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1779594420960055737) 2024-04-14T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every tailwind behind it. $HHH Price venturing further and further into the absurdadded again $HHH Price venturing further and further into the absurdadded again"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1779945894915531128) 2024-04-15T18:52Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements
"@valueventurez No view. What are your thoughts"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1779953763421196374) 2024-04-15T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I like $CRON a lot because it has a huge cash balance trades at close to net cash is [--] percent owned by Altria has dominant market share in edibles and some interesting global investments. Its also cash flow positive despite the draconian excise tax.margins will explode if the tax is reformed tomorrow; if there is no reform its built to survive while most others wont. I own far of this than OGI. I wrote it up on my blog if interested"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1779986914042421552) 2024-04-15T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre not wrong though I would not underestimate the long run demand for affordable and large homes low crime rates and income tax rates and the feel of living in a community. Younger generations in NYC e.g are being flattened by inflation and giving up on the America dream of owning a real home and raising a family comfortably. As someone who lives NYC i [---] percent see the appeal of these communities"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1780292137692864755) 2024-04-16T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Im still out here saying $cron and $ogi should merge to form the undisputed juggernaut cannabis producer. Regardless I do think we see some consolidation through acquisition now that it has become essentially hopeless for most the companies in the space. The balance sheet strength really starts coming into play now"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1780398491514376320) 2024-04-17T00:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@HiddeMulder2 Can you elaborate not sure what you mean"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1780590411758587973) 2024-04-17T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"People are so caught up with the capital gains tax increase which is annoying but the real issue is the uncontrolled fiscal spending which is only going to exacerbate rampant inflation which of course is the most pernicious of all taxes. The middle class is already being flattened by inflationary pressures increasing the tax to further fund reckless spending is mere insult to injury"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1780611091527073851) 2024-04-17T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SMalikjo Have $NRP as my energy royalty play but that's probably a good bet too. Wasn't there some corporate governance drama over there recently - not close to the name"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1782087702235513167) 2024-04-21T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm no laser eyes guy and you'll find more articulate theses elsewhere but my two cents. 1) Money supply is going parabolic and the continuation of this trend appears all but guaranteed as there's no other path to getting out of the fiscal debt burden; 2) more money = more demand for assets; 3) generally increased demand is over time met with a supply response stabilizing price increases (e.g. housing commodities etc); 4) the BTC protocol inherently prevents a supply response (will only ever be 21m BTC some 19m is already created much of that is lost or otherwise permanently offline); 5) over"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1782157757644190110) 2024-04-21T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The land bank is the biggest piece of NAV and will be for years. They lay it out nicely in the investor deck. Take #s with a grain of salt of course but you can take the avg. price/acre multiplied across the retained acreage at some growth rate apply the cash margin and discount it back"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1782161950417342550) 2024-04-21T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay I think it's time I actually own some $JOE. Growth coming out of here is unbelievable and the stock just gets cheaper with each print. @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC. @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1783487423478895016) 2024-04-25T13:25Z [----] followers, 16K engagements
"If anyone wants to connect in Omaha feel free to reach out. Ill be there Thurs AM through Sunday night. 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1784639158520025485) 2024-04-28T17:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Phenomenal listen I'm delighted to share the latest episode of the #RicherWiserHappier podcast: a very rare in-depth interview with Bryan Lawrencea terrific hedge fund manager who is one of the most thoughtful investors I know. To listen: https://t.co/cD7pVnRTs5 https://t.co/ENWka9mw8X I'm delighted to share the latest episode of the #RicherWiserHappier podcast: a very rare in-depth interview with Bryan Lawrencea terrific hedge fund manager who is one of the most thoughtful investors I know. To listen: https://t.co/cD7pVnRTs5 https://t.co/ENWka9mw8X"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1784645770064347311) 2024-04-28T18:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What are some of the best resources to get up to speed on the uranium bull thesis"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1785295356302860718) 2024-04-30T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I own a little $RIG now. I think $5 is going to look pretty silly in time. Imagine owning these assets in a decade"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1785313746010681355) 2024-04-30T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SebKrog The reality is that many would prefer to herd follow play status games and hopefully appear smart rather than actually make money"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1786858179009089969) 2024-05-04T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thats true haha. But what Ill never understand is the retail guy who thinks his investible universe is the same size as Buffetts. I know plenty of people with less than 1M who spend endless hours trying to decide between google and Amazon. They refuse to believe it can be easier than that"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1786860353931866330) 2024-05-04T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You dont need to go this tiny or illiquid either. E.g. theres a fairly high probability move like this coming in $VAL over the next [--] months"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1787496774623449320) 2024-05-06T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kingdomcapadv @Steven_Kiel Very interesting. Never got comfortable valuing Life Sciences but even with a 1x sales multiple + NCAV there's a fairly decent discount to liquidation value (potential value for real estate too) . Any concerns about the settlements materially impacting the math"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1787520096975368202) 2024-05-06T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CuriosityInves @hammeredcapital These opportunities haven't existed since the 50s and even if they still did you're not Buffett and wouldn't be able to figure out if something at 3x FCF with 1/2 its market cap in cash and sustainable demand might end up being a good idea"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1787558948393881616) 2024-05-06T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2021_stonks @CuriosityInves @hammeredcapital As I've said before everyone cosplays as a Buffett disciple in the abstract but then completely dismisses his advice in practice. https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 There are so many incredible long-duration opportunities still out there right now being made possible by the ubiquitous myopia that pervades markets today. Every year droves of investors flock to Omaha to hear sermons on how generational wealth is created simply through the https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 There are so many incredible"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1787564982181224778) 2024-05-06T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sharpeshark @gasparespontin1 The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1787611182418780230) 2024-05-06T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can you guys please stop buying $VAL😭"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1788228098091094445) 2024-05-08T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is the piece the 'but it's a cult stock' guys miss. Even if there's doughnut risk with a fairly high probably say 50% (I personally don't think the probability of a zero is remotely that high fwiw but there's certainly 'some' risk) the path for a potential 10x or more is clear enough to make this a very obvious +ev bet. If you've thought about this opportunity clearly and done the work I struggle to understand how one walks away thinking this isn't worth any allocation at all"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1788278111638802820) 2024-05-08T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There appears to be an unbridgeable divide between those who think current and past income generation is relevant here and those that dont. I look at the land appreciation and what NOI might look like a decade out and that story continues to track but I could very well end up being a moron"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1788413561519145163) 2024-05-09T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah sorry I'm not being clear thanks for calling that out. I am anchoring to my cost basis (which is about half the current share price) - do I think you can clearly underwrite a [--] bagger from here Not without everything going absolutely perfectly as advertised (certainly not remotely my base or even bull case). But I don't think $500m (give or take) is outrageously ambitious assuming crucially that they actually capture material parts of the US market (obviously the $70m in milestone entitlements helps with that math). I am far from a mega-bull here but I do think the r/r on this is quite"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1789372691557896479) 2024-05-11T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NestBetter I knew it was bad but wow"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1789825219672117574) 2024-05-13T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ENZ Latest piece at link in bio. This has been a graveyard for investors but with the market cap ($54m) now approx. equal to NCAV (which includes $60m cash) and the remainco improving and now profitable at the segment level r/r is quite compelling here imo"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790012453121634448) 2024-05-13T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ Enzo is subject to ongoing class action litigation related to a ransomware attack last year. Though this injects some uncertainty into the SOTP math precedent settlements arising out of similar cyberattacks have not exceeded [--] figures. With $3m of insurance coverage and a loss provision already having been taken the impact should not be particularly concerning particularly given the discount (though there is tail risk)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790020531292377230) 2024-05-13T14:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ The company is aggressively cleaning up its balance sheet making cash burn appear higher than it is. Cash balance declined $9m QoQ but NCAV only declined $3m. Applying a range of burn rates real estate values litigation liabilities and 2-4x gross profit for ELS my SOTP math arrives at $1.24/share even in the bear case and $2.41/share or higher in the bull case (+125%)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790020532630323541) 2024-05-13T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As always pls DYODD and feel free to push back on anything stupid I've said. 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790021344484020299) 2024-05-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not something I've discussed here really but I am 1/5 allocated to $BTC. Yes it has no intrinsic value and no I don't believe western civilization is on the precipice of collapse. But with an endlessly expanding fiat supply and increasing amounts of btc's inherently fixed supply coming offline (exacerbated by institutional adoption) I struggle to see how the price doesn't materially squeeze higher. That's basically it: econ101 with some Soros reflexivity dynamics (with the unique caveat that there definitionally can't be a supply response to trigger the 'bust' as the model predicts - the bust"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790874193782829147) 2024-05-15T22:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Barry59700119 What might a better protocol look like Seems to me many of its shortcomings are also its virtues"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790891989900354018) 2024-05-15T23:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Well you do need to believe in the demand part of the equation but you could say the say thing about gold couldn't you If fiat is being debased people will look to something as a store of value - it seems to me superior in everyway to gold and one far likelier to be adopted by younger cohorts. I do think the theory of reflexivity helps here conceptually - as the price goes up demand increases as people chase in turn driving further scarcity.it is no doubt circular but it happens in markets all the time.the difference is that in the ordinary course there is a supply response which reverses the"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1790909209212555683) 2024-05-16T00:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's the strongest non-macro/non-coal price bear case for $HCC Struggling to come up with reasons to not size this up"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791093516866629922) 2024-05-16T13:09Z [----] followers, 21.1K engagements
"@PythiaR Any specific hang up"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791196345857872289) 2024-05-16T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Uzo_Investor Alternatively: 1) capital light 2) Valaris 😂"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791215934348177837) 2024-05-16T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LQDA it's an indictment of our legal system that the commercialization of a life altering drug has been held up this long due to the number of avenues UTHR has been able to avail itself of. Broadly the time and resources exhausted by the Kafkaesque procedural apparatus of the legal system is asinine and one of the many reasons I exited the profession"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791516929158500628) 2024-05-17T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Of course its a clear incentive of the billable hour model to maximize the intricacies of the procedural labyrinth; I will never cease to be amazed at the inventiveness of high paid lawyers in devising ways to inflict what amounts to nothing more than dead weight loss upon society"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791519444142792990) 2024-05-17T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON ChatGPT is also long 😂"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1791935261200228679) 2024-05-18T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$sei.v Assuming that 20B is right thats almost 1B of value for Sintana before giving credit to all its other assets which are becoming higher probability shots on goal with each discovery and could easily be worth more turns on the current market cap. Was a buyer at [----] but its arguably cheaper now at [----] given derisking. Added some more today. Bloomberg says: "Whole asset could be worth $20bn based on oil estimates". Not sure who made those or how but that would translate into almost $1bn for $SEI.V stake at least as being carried makes it more valuable. Now check again the current mcap"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1793001530641068487) 2024-05-21T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I find this to be true in nearly every instance. The difficultly of course is both being able to trust your convictions (yes it may well actually be that obvious) and being ready to strike when the opportunity comes (which might require divesting of other ideas we like to free up capital) - in other words rationally assessing opportunity cost. Never easy"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1793985469136408870) 2024-05-24T12:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BTC holdings + crypto mining opco + a massive stake in $TPL + stock exchanges (MIAX - soon to IPO) + an interest in various funds that own essentially the same hodgepodge of assets + 5% of Horizon Kinetics (soon to be public through $SLGD reverse merger). Who wants to own this Value guys are generally adverse to all things crypto; on the other hand why wouldn't crypto guys just directly hold BTC + it's illiquid pink and uses confusing consolidated accounting"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1794039933927055766) 2024-05-24T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think the MIAX stake is worth $20m based on recent private placement (though that might include the non-controlling interest) plus $40m cash. The stock definitely trades at premium to book so the question becomes how much of a premium it deserves- 25% BVPS CAGR is pretty damn impressive but you need to be able to fully grasp the value the mining creates and I am not quite there yet. I personally love the underlying assets and I think NAV is going to grow a lot but the question for me then is why own this as opposed to the underlying holdings I bought a starter because these guys clearly know"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1794443987505270902) 2024-05-25T19:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BerkelKip Most recent earnings call was very informative if you haven't heard it yet"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1794444505300525563) 2024-05-25T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@D1Fund On the balance sheet I thought they dumped it all"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1796207080438743408) 2024-05-30T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$SPWH Sadly ratcheting up the prospects for civil war is the mega bull case here. 1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is clearly in and shares offer well over 1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1796299686908719290) 2024-05-30T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I have a full length on sbstack but 1) by far the best balance sheet nearly entire market cap cash 2) leading brands in specialties (edibles vapes) and 3) 40% owned by Altria - to answer your question above yes I think this will look a lot like tobacco and who better to bet on than MO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1796390180112224688) 2024-05-31T03:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's your favorite real estate play at the moment"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1796621122013671833) 2024-05-31T19:13Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"$ICAD If you're long or close to the story I'd appreciate hearing from you. DMs are open. $ICAD Here's a pureplay AI medtech company transitioning to a SaaS model well positioned to capture a decent share of a massive TAM that is in its first inning (AI solutions for cancer detection) that up until this run up today was available for.yep 1xEV/Sales (w/ 50% $ICAD Here's a pureplay AI medtech company transitioning to a SaaS model well positioned to capture a decent share of a massive TAM that is in its first inning (AI solutions for cancer detection) that up until this run up today was"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1797664590077276235) 2024-06-03T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BQE.V Will soon be releasing a short pt [--] piece highlighting the "company-maker projects" opportunity. While the company hasn't provided any specifics on when we might be able to expect one of these if it all some online sleuthing indicates that there's a strong possibility that a large operations project (potentially worth the entire current run-rate ARR) might be on its way soon. Will get it out by end of week hopefully"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1798426456525005090) 2024-06-05T18:47Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements
"A little hint: NI 43-101 + BQE"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1798428859467248019) 2024-06-05T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If I am right we're looking at mid-teens EBITDA from the recurring revenue segment in a few years out vs. an EV of $70m today. That puts this at 5x ish (call it 2027) EBITDA before any accounting for technical services segment contributions and cash generation. Market has fallen asleep here with shares below $60 imo"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1798430379042333029) 2024-06-05T19:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Well there's this for one - i.e. even one company maker project doubles earnings and I am pretty confident we can see one coming soon. But perhaps more broadly look at the unit at economics on the selenium tech. Q1 recurring revenue grew 115% YoY despite the company treating pretty much the equivalent volume of water. I've never understood the concerns about scale much because you don't need more than a one operating project annually to make a huge difference at this stage. Scale could become an issue down the road for sure but earnings should be multiplies higher by the time that becomes an"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1798750081518326027) 2024-06-06T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@retails_edge @simcox_gm If the price of btc goes where I think its going Ive got all the time in the world"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799139624323018796) 2024-06-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah I dont think its hairy with respect to downside on the equity - in fact think the margin of safety is very big. It's just hairy with respect to the sustainability of run rate cash flow giving the Livingston overhang. But at 10% div yield markets already pricing this in it appears. Think its very cheap and asymmetric"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799148101099241655) 2024-06-07T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@simcox_gm @retails_edge Yeah I likewise don't think its much more complicated. There's the market value of its BTC + Gox claims and then some premium on that to account for mining operations and electronics. It's a bet on bitcoin with some potential torque given the operations and event optionality"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799151647181980118) 2024-06-07T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ while the debt looks scary it's nearly all non-recourse with a 4% weighted average rate and the vast majority of the principal not due until [--] and beyond. The private market equity value of Tribeca Clover and Pacific alone are = to the current market cap giving us the rest of the business for free. (I recognize there'd be tax consequences and other issues with simply foreclosing on everything else but again just framing things)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799162405433303491) 2024-06-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Currently trading at 10% dividend yield or $16m annual dist. which they were even able to sustain during COVID. Run-rate AFFO $24m clearly covers this. But of course the issue here and the overhang more broadly is with [---] Livingston lease termination which comprises 15% of NOI. The problem is compounded by the likely () termination of [---] Livingston as well (another low teen % of NOI) as well further funding for Dean. But at a 10% div yield isn't a cut to AFFO already priced in"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799162407379509331) 2024-06-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Could you be wiped out though the debt is all non-recourse What's really interesting here imo is that if you wanted to acquire this portfolio today pro forma Dean (ignore Livingston issues for a moment) you'd pay (assuming 90m NOI at a blended [--] cap) something like $1.48B but you'd never get this much debt. Maybe you'd get 65% LTV So 960m of debt and you'd need to fork over some $500m of equity. But the equity trades publicly at $160m today so we are creating an ownership interest in all of these assets that could never be achieved today and because the debt is non-recourse to the c-corp we"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799479503825100823) 2024-06-08T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Maklarmatte @missingmiddle They own some 60% of the interest via commons and LLC units"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799487701915156746) 2024-06-08T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockgutter $NRP. Yield looks like a measly 3% right now but pro forma debt and pref extinguishment by sometime [----] were looking at a mid-teens yield thats more sustainable than the market is crediting. 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties while AMR is likewise NRP's largest customer (1/4-1/3 of sales). Yet NRP has 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1799566727266664845) 2024-06-08T22:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@smcap_thinking Thanks. Is there something in the piece I said in the piece in tension with your points here"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1800731603632840987) 2024-06-12T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Big moves from this basket today particularly $JBGS. Regardless of whether this holds in the short term these things are screaming cheap and I think should significantly outperform over the next couple years. I think negative sentiment around a lot publicly traded RE is way over done and that theres a ton of opportunity here w a long enough time horizon rate cuts or not. In addition to $HHH Ive been buying $JBGS and some $CLPR (an interesting albeit hairy setup Ill likely have I think negative sentiment around a lot publicly traded RE is way over done and that theres a ton of opportunity here"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1800890535844233614) 2024-06-12T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$mreo I promised myself to not buy anymore of this but it's too difficult to pass on at 3.75"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1800924020474515689) 2024-06-12T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Another head scratcher here: $rare which is some 8x larger than $mreo and has a much broader pipeline is up 8.5% on setru data gaining +$300m in value. Mereo meanwhile is now up less than 5%. Yes rare has the more valuable US rights but a +$300m increase in market cap vs $30m for Mereo is completely unhinged"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1800955346912952357) 2024-06-12T18:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Maklarmatte Would not be surprised to see $5 at some point"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1801262222087250259) 2024-06-13T14:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI quality LPs getting to silly valuations here again as market grows concerned about rescheduling efforts. But rescheduling is merely an opened ended call option for these names which have more than enough upside from the improving Canadian landscape. I've been adding a little to this already large exposure"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1802708538575163477) 2024-06-17T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For now that's definitely true - prices are likely to be untethered from valuation as the entire sector trades like a meme. But the fundamental downside risk is negligible for these two names given the net cash and asset value; therefore you're effectively getting a call option on all the industry catalysts without taking the downside risk attached to some many of these stocks. Over time as the industry shakes out the weak hands and gains legitimacy quality and valuation will matter"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1802711064137572707) 2024-06-17T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V heavy sell off today on no news likely due to capital gains tax change going into effect next week. Added some. Canadian clearly banking winners ahead of the cap gains tax treatment changewhich small/microcaps are you looking to take the other side $BQE.V is mine Canadian clearly banking winners ahead of the cap gains tax treatment changewhich small/microcaps are you looking to take the other side $BQE.V is mine"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1803493636501287080) 2024-06-19T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$geo another one the market is giving away here imo $geo group remains a great long idea imo. significant potential for new contract wins +substantial revenues at several of these facilities. ICE needs capacity in [--] regions. based on the current unused capacity at North Lake and Delaney Hall and hopefully some common sense we https://t.co/hZEhCNqElf $geo group remains a great long idea imo. significant potential for new contract wins +substantial revenues at several of these facilities. ICE needs capacity in [--] regions. based on the current unused capacity at North Lake and Delaney Hall and"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1804180296247460052) 2024-06-21T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How do you arrive at that I think that's the low end not the max. In FRMO's [----] letter Stahl says the value of Winland's Mt Gox claims "is currently about $600K on a conservative basis". The price of BTC was hovering around 10K when he wrote that letter so that would suggest that it's at least [--] BTC. Curious to hear pushback"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1805293067492344090) 2024-06-24T17:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ $CRON (-13.7%). After being up 20% on the Q on rescheduling news shares gave it all back and more on cartoonish investor anxiety's about the progress of rescheduling particularly silly in this case given Cronos barely has US exposure at this point. The fundamentals continue to improve with both top line growth and margin expansion. And the optionality from the fortress balance sheet is so valuable in a capital constrained and rapidly changing sector. Would not be surprised to see Cronos make a bid on a competitor if valuations stay compressed like this. Ultimately investors need to deal"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807456788209701181) 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ $ROIV (-2.69%). Good example of the frustration I highlighted in last week's "where I'm looking for value" post as it concerns XBI. I've previously described it as the Cronos of biotech -- ie you're essentially paying for the balance sheet and getting a ton of free options. Some of those options are now more in the money than they were before but this biotech market doesn't seem to care until value is crystallized. But the particularly crazy thing here imo is that the company has been buying back a ton of stock on the cheap including $648m (9% of shares) from a legacy shareholder at"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807456790302314939) 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"10/ $JBGS I've been talking about the need for returns of capital to get around the lack of incremental buyers to put the right multiple on your stock. Well between divs (5%) and buybacks JBGS is currently yielding 17%. This is a share cannibal run by smart allocators that essentially has a local monopoly within an area exposed to huge tailwinds. I think this is a very likely multibagger over the long-run while in the near-term I think we see a big move on any indication of a rate cut"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807456799471325690) 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"11/ $CRON. This is really oversold here and I suspect Dems will be eager to push cannabis reform as we get closer to the election"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807456800993624281) 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Would it kill $BUR to do a buyback Clearly no one else wants the stock"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807797646624538803) 2024-07-01T15:25Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements
"Coal piece of this off to good start. Man are these things cheap $btu $nrp Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS https://t.co/qVjBmhwR1R Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS https://t.co/qVjBmhwR1R"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807832014671720530) 2024-07-01T17:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AndrewIng8 They could be right theoretically but the market clearly doesnt care and buybacks would be extremely accretive here assuming YPF works out even a bit"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807844499692925285) 2024-07-01T18:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V some good insights shared by management during this presentation last week. Worthwhile listen for existing or prospective shareholders. Two key items which I dont believe theyve previously provided specifics on: 1) there are [--] different company-maker projects in the pipeline (and it sounds like the KSM one we tracked down is actually #2 in terms of potential timing in transitioning to operations - we should get confirmation on the first by the end of this year and is an operating mine expansion) and 2) potential bolt on acquisitions which will improve the breadth and economics of"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807907724602270144) 2024-07-01T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How many of the commentators on here having apoplectic fits over these SCOTUS opinions have taken their time to read them in full let alone even attempted to fully comprehend them Id guess its substantially less than one percent"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1807937208134840749) 2024-07-02T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MarijuanaMoment Think we need to start raising the standards for getting a law degree. This is not coherent"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1808519503107805281) 2024-07-03T15:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@siyul @Investing501 @Valuations @LittleOwlRes @stockspinoffss Other thing to consider is simply interest rates - if we do get a cut thats the likely a catalyst"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1809271513398509971) 2024-07-05T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V Early stages but obviously positive to see the pipeline for Selen-IX treatment growing given the economics for this technology. Promising to see further geographic diversification as well. https://www.bqewater.com/first-selenium-treatment-project-in-latin-america/ https://www.bqewater.com/first-selenium-treatment-project-in-latin-america/"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1811149896730431782) 2024-07-10T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Avoided civil war by a millimeter"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1812270173430382788) 2024-07-13T23:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO I've always believed rule by the Ds not Rs is more long term bullish for the name but hey I'll take it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1812894484255916064) 2024-07-15T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@hcapinvesting Im at [--] and Ive been buying"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1814167048966033889) 2024-07-19T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@hcapinvesting How often do you get a basically infinite ROIC business with this balance sheet at a single digit multiplewith a high probability grow catalyst that could triple earnings A few times a career at most"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1814168222532329665) 2024-07-19T05:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sharpeshark @EponymouslyAnon Having an all California ticket seems like a sure fire way to lose in a landslide. Though given how much Democrats seem to enjoy losing perhaps its not out of the question"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1815152665032044929) 2024-07-21T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Use of the word is coup is stupid. But* the Dems 1) clearly knew of Bidens diminished capacity well before the debate; 2) actively impeded a proper and competitive primary and concealed Bidens decline thus facilitating his win of the primary; 3) abruptly pivoted after the debate pretending they miraculously only just discovered his cognitive issues likely because it became clear he couldnt win (again the party chose him) 4) forced Biden to resign after he was already voted to be the nominee by the people: and 5) will now proceed to run someone that has a better shot at winning but wasnt"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1815504896797614532) 2024-07-22T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Smart activist value investor Rubric capital who are experienced in biotech control [--] board seats and own 14%. Despite being up some 500% from the launching of their successful proxy battle in [----] they remain bullish and recently purchased a $7m slug during June's ATM issuance at $3.99 ( today's price)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1815818358748766525) 2024-07-23T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ Rubric are not the only smart money gobbling up shares rapidly. The aforementioned June atm on the heels of the setrusumab data raised $50m and was participated in by other pre-existing holders Rock Springs and Janus Henderson as well as a host of new sophisticated biotech investors including Perceptive Deerfield and Frazier. Janus has since taken its stake up to 5%. All of this institutional capital rushing to buy shares near ATH's should give you a sense of how cheap this still looks at $4. Altogether funds appear to own well more than 50% of the stock now"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1815818361068208537) 2024-07-23T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BrianSG27 @marginofdanger @PropertyBigE DMs open"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816520014436139125) 2024-07-25T17:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BQE.V Great news regarding the KSM company-maker project. Id expect JV financing to follow shortly at which point this prospectively transformative project starts looking very much like a reality. https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/217820/Seabridge-Gold-Receives-its-KSM-Substantially-Started-Designation-from-the-BC-Government https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/217820/Seabridge-Gold-Receives-its-KSM-Substantially-Started-Designation-from-the-BC-Government"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816848228530180135) 2024-07-26T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH bought a lot more this morning. Segments firing across the board. Seaport spin will substantially improve cash generation. Buybacks likely coming soon. 1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight we would all be better off keeping front of mind. 1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816856054371877335) 2024-07-26T15:20Z [----] followers, 19.8K engagements
"In the land of sub $100m Canadian microcaps where on the breaking of company altering news volume on the day is.2 shares"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816861692460171643) 2024-07-26T15:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You don't say The average voter doesn't have a clue what inflation means let alone what causes it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816920723862225080) 2024-07-26T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HHH cost basis for Floreo is $39k/acre and they're already getting +$900k/acre with 28% gross margins and 50% expected cash margins. MPC: - EBT up 124% with a record price per acre of $1m - Market sleeping on Terravalis big time. Early innings but residential land already going for $900K/acre MPC: - EBT up 124% with a record price per acre of $1m - Market sleeping on Terravalis big time. Early innings but residential land already going for $900K/acre"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1816929455316828619) 2024-07-26T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPH.TO Still waiting for more clarity on the financials but it's looking like Mull has nailed it on this acquisition. While this deal completely transforms the company its probably just an appetizer of what's to come over the next couple years. Congrats to my fellow longs. $cph.to still my highest conviction bet $cph.to still my highest conviction bet"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1817926437732843792) 2024-07-29T14:13Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements
"@NestBetter Nicely done. Sure you are feeling better about this M&A now haha"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1817937154708049944) 2024-07-29T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CPH.TO avoid anchoring to the chart and simply run the math.it's still very cheap"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1818727800381026477) 2024-07-31T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SebKrog Completely agree. It's now a growth stock that deserves a higher multiple and you've got several call options that could really magnify the upside. Levered capital structure for this cash flow machine is also a plus for the equity"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1818738814296404063) 2024-07-31T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MREO insightful thoughts on setrusumab per $RARE's Q2 update yesterday. 1/ A few comments and notes following $RARE CC related to $MREO setrusumab: The 22% BMD increase in phase [--] ORBIT will translate to phase [--] because BMD will have little change for placebo patients based on earlier trials (ASTEROID had placebo patients for around [--] months). 1/ A few comments and notes following $RARE CC related to $MREO setrusumab: The 22% BMD increase in phase [--] ORBIT will translate to phase [--] because BMD will have little change for placebo patients based on earlier trials (ASTEROID had placebo patients"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1819452481447096410) 2024-08-02T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH 👀 $HHH here we go() https://t.co/WZUXq6WNUI $HHH here we go() https://t.co/WZUXq6WNUI"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821006643431129504) 2024-08-07T02:13Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements
"@ClarkinM Also right on the heels of pulling the PSUS IPO. Another path to US domiciled permanent capital Are we back to this now Agree it's very odd given he's on track to owning the vast majority of SEG too given where it's trading"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821014486603436520) 2024-08-07T02:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SMalikjo No idea but personally I'd be disappointed in anything less than $90/share. With SEG gone buybacks coming rates coming in and cash flow about to inflect I think we'd get there on our own"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821018441899196728) 2024-08-07T03:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NRP Reported $57m of FCF despite softer commodity pricing. Annualized that's a 20% FCF yield. All of that cash flow will be available for distribution once the balance sheet is debt/pref free next year. If your time horizon is longer than tomorrow pretty low brain damage play to clip a high yield with some optionality to the upside (e.g. stronger pricing growth of sequestration). That's the thesis. 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821187773845406029) 2024-08-07T14:12Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements
"$TDW long-term story and underlying fundamentals are tracking and look fantastic but theres a small speed bump pushing things out a couple months. Of course the stock is dumping because who can possibly wait an extra quarter"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821196512589967645) 2024-08-07T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If someone knows a better way to earn to a 15-20% cash yield please advise"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821197078108025251) 2024-08-07T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON Think Q2 results look fantastic and that this continues to be one of the biggest dislocations between price and intrinsic value out there. The stock continues to trade near its $800m net cash balance giving you the business for free. Meanwhile that business: 1) just grew its topline +40% YoY and 10% sequentially; 2) saw gross margins improve [---] bps QoQ to 23%; 3) continues to improve its opex structure resulting in $5m improvement to EBITDA; 4) though it remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis is generating +CFFO; 5) owns a dominant brand Spinach which boasts 16% market share in high"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821563432279163198) 2024-08-08T15:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@3Plantey2 Dont think theyll be returning capital. They should be focused on strategic investments opportunistic M&A and keeping some to weather the storm as the industry moves toward rationalization. $MO didnt give them this cash only to have it paid to shareholders"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821568620423700483) 2024-08-08T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ToffCap A lot more"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1821917496938545404) 2024-08-09T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BluthCapital $NRP returns will be very meaningful [--] months out"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1823174182856724716) 2024-08-13T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OGI - Revenue +25% - Gross Margins 36% up from 19% - SG&A down 22% - GAAP profit $2.8m (despite paying 1/3 of revenue in excise tax) - pro forma cash $173m - #1 position in milled flower hash and CBD gummies #3 in edibles pre-rolls and dried flower and #3 overall market share in Canada. Like $CRON this is now a growth stock carving out a dominant market share in a growing industry demonstrating vastly improved economics and yet is barely trading for more than the cash on its balance sheet. Multibagger in the making"
[X Link](https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1823337739963466236) 2024-08-13T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ragingbullcap Jake LaMotta
Jake LaMotta posts on X about $cron, $ogi, debt, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +209%
- [--] Month [-------] -32%
- [--] Months [---------] +27%
- [--] Year [---------] -5.10%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -24%
- [--] Month [---] +1.80%
- [--] Months [---] +51%
- [--] Year [---] +19%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +1.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +6%
- [--] Months [-----] +18%
- [--] Year [-----] +41%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks #3324 cryptocurrencies countries currencies technology brands travel destinations social networks automotive brands celebrities
Social topic influence $cron, $ogi, debt, in the, $hhh, market cap #646, market, $cphto, business #4028, balance sheet
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @icbarrett @tommydeepwater @nestbetter @hcapinvesting @lars57360069 @uzocapital @cupofcoffeecap @davidkatunaric @sharpeshark @hycorps @diegola95810478 @organigraminc @berkelkip @siyul @billackman @markemerritt @capitaloptimism @adhdcapital @pedrolamento @mrneutralman
Top assets mentioned Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) Validity (VAL) Noble Corporation (NE) Transocean LTD. (RIG) CannabisCoin (CANN) LandBridge Company LLC (LB) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) Cronos (CRO) Clipper Realty Inc. Common Stock (CLPR) Texas Pacific Land, Corp. (TPL) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) British American Tobacco (BTI) JOE (JOE) FTC Solar, Inc. (FTCI) Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK) Altria Group Inc (MO) HORIZON KINETICS HOLDING (HKHC) Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) Bitcoin (BTC) Kohl's Corporation (KSS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Any other ideas that fit the bill"
X Link 2024-02-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@backoftheenvelo Right. As much as I thought the case against $JBLU was weak on a nuanced interpretation of the law there was at a least a plausible appeal to the equities (protecting the most price sensitive consumer). Here there are no discernible fairness concerns- no one needs lux fashion"
X Link 2024-02-17T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@torowallstreet @puppyeh1 @ITOLDYA6 Ive looked at $GENL.L before. Several way to win there but seems incredibly hairy to me. Any insight into the KRGs ability and willingness to pay the potential Award Will take a look at Palt"
X Link 2024-02-25T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@evfcfaddict You're a legend Andy. Thanks"
X Link 2024-02-26T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties while AMR is likewise NRP's largest customer (1/4-1/3 of sales). Yet NRP has barely budged. $AMR reported large upticks in both met coal sales price and sale volume in Q4'23. This is great news for $NRP a company which owns the mineral rights to of $AMR's active mining ops (rec'ving payments based on coal sale price/sale volume) and which I'm heavily long. $AMR reported large upticks in both met coal"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, 41.8K engagements
"2/ $NRP is a quality business. It owns 13mm acres of mineral rights interests which it leases out to operators who pay royalties (%of gross rev) on the resources (largely met coal) mined from the properties. The lessees bare all the associated costs. You don't need me to tout the virtues of a high margin royalty biz.take it from Uncle Warren https://x.com/alphaideas/status/1347441821442600960s=20 https://x.com/alphaideas/status/1347441821442600960s=20"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ It's a great way to play coal with less commodity price risk. NRP's leases include minimum payment obligations meaning they still get paid some even if demand/pricing collapses"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ The company is optically cheap at around 4.3x LTM FCF (and AMR print indicates fcf isn't set to decline materially). BUT it's actually even cheaper if you look closely. $NRP owns 49% of Sisecam Wyoming one of the world's most advantaged producers of Soda Ash. Last year the GP of the 51% stake took out its LPs at $25/share implying a private mark for NRP's stake of $500mm give or take. Backing out the soda ash segment the core mineral rights biz is available for 3x fcf"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ $NRP is an MLP meaning it is structured to pay distributions to its unit holders. Dists. are presently only $3/share as FCF has been tied up cleaning up the cap structure: debt prefs and warrants. But the clean up is nearly done with debt balance down to $200mm from $1.5B and vast majority of prefs and warrants gone. By next year essentially all fcf should be available for distribution to the commons.perhaps a 20% yield on the present market cap The stock will have nowhere to go but up"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"8/ Final note - as an MLP there are certain tax implications particularly for retirement accts and non-US residents. Also fairly illiquid. DYODD"
X Link 2024-02-27T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There's absolutely coal price risk here but much less so than miners. Further assuming sales don't collapse in [----] you enter [----] with most if not all of the debt and prefs extinguished. At that point even if cash flow runs at 50% of present levels ($150mm) you're still looking at around $10/share available for annual distributions to the commons +10% yield on the present market cap. As @crowdturtle puts out this is less about playing coal and more about an event angle - a vastly improved cap structure that is going unnoticed and is going to free up piles of cash for commons"
X Link 2024-02-27T21:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NRP Weird take perhaps but this setup in many ways rhymes with that of Cipher's $cph.to imo: [--]. Quality: cash generative royalty businesses with minimal to no reinvestment needs - i.e. all cash is distributable to owners w/o compromising operations; [--]. Cheap: free cash flow yields that are far too high given the economics; [--]. Opportunity: controlling shareholder/operators who saw vast sums of their net worth vanish in the 2010s due to troubles caused by poor M&A (Robertson on his own accord; Mull due to yielding the reigns) but who have tirelessly worked to right the ship and who are only"
X Link 2024-02-28T22:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@puppyeh1 @ArpatSood @EsotericInv Horrendous Always risk to these but Ghana being the seat is a preposterous outcome"
X Link 2024-02-29T01:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that + the cash ($94m) + Star X receivables ($34m) the operating business is available for $820m which puts it at 7.6x the FY2024 adj. EBITDA guide"
X Link 2024-03-03T17:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$OPRA Big pre-market move. I am in at around [-----] and happy to keep adding below $16. Would not be surprised to see $20 on this soon which is 12x [--] EBITDA excl. the non operating balance sheet items. 1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that + the cash ($94m) + Star X receivables ($34m) the operating business is available for $820m which puts it at 7.6x the FY2024 adj. EBITDA guide. 1/ $OPRA fair value of its 9.44% stake in OPay increased to $269m which is more than 20% of the market cap. Subtracting that +"
X Link 2024-03-04T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"No new buyback initiated but would expect either that or a special is coming in H1 this year. Situation looks like similar to early [----] when the company was again carrying a good % of its market cap in non operating assets"
X Link 2024-03-04T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ $TWM.TO I've been quite wrong on this one so far. What happened 1) Unexpected management change at an extremely disappointing moment (that team had been doing a great job executing on the plan to close the sotp discount) ; 2) $LCFS.TO made up a huge chunk of the SOTP value and I should have more conservatively underwritten what might happen should lcfs shares decline as they have"
X Link 2024-03-04T16:15Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"2/ I want to be careful of thesis drift but with that said this is deep-value now at $0.81/share ($345 market cap). When they report on Mar. [--] I expect the balance sheet to show net cash (pro forma Pipestone cash net cash is $45m). Let's assume net cash is $20m. That puts the EV at $320m. They paid $210m for PGR alone in [----] and that was likely a bargain price. That means we get everything else for $100m which includes: the LCFS stake (alone worth $150m at $6.30/share) the Brazeau River Complex (which they paid over $230m for nearly a decade ago) Acheson (cost basis +17m likely worth much"
X Link 2024-03-04T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockspotify @rembrandtph Which acquisition are you referring to"
X Link 2024-03-06T19:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$NRP Strong results as expected with $ 78.5m Q4 FCF FY $313m (record). Importantly only 72m of prefs (with $172m redeemed during the year) and $20m of warrants remain. Cap structure should therefore be fully cleaned up by sometime in [----] (mgmt said 1.5-2 years though i suspect it's much closer to 1.5) at which point cash will gush to the commons. There are definitely some headwinds in the near-term (soda ash declines steel demand etc.) and the current fcf run-rate is definitely not sustainable. That said it doesn't need to be sustainable to do well; e.g. w/o any senior interests $200m in fcf"
X Link 2024-03-07T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON only starting to do the work here but what's the catch - Net-net (10% discount to cash 15% to NCAV) with minimal burn - Topline growth and not too far from breakeven - Decent brand value (Spinach Peace Naturals) - Interesting partnerships providing broad geographic presence - 40% ownership by Altria per $1.8B investment in [----] at an implied market cap of $4B Is this a case of the market confusing uncertainty with risk - i.e. it seems this could play out any number of ways but tough to envision an outcome where money is lost at this valuation (absent enormously destructive capital"
X Link 2024-03-08T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@cdoebwnd all valid questions for the upside for sure but do they really impact the downside This is already near liquidation value before accounting for the real estate. The worst case seems priced in no"
X Link 2024-03-08T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON the more I dive in the more attractive this seems. Lot of moving pieces but once you cut through it: a growing market leader (#1 flower and edible in Canada) with a lot of optionality in an industry with numerous near-term tailwinds.available at a Ben Graham valuation"
X Link 2024-03-08T21:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@HotDogCap Why is CRON able to trade on the NASDAQ Pardon my ignorance on the regulatory landscape. US listed Big Tobacco can invest but not control until legalization"
X Link 2024-03-08T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Never underestimate the propensity for bad management to get in the way of a sure thing. There are few if any ideas with a margin of safety wide enough to immunize against incompetence"
X Link 2024-03-12T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yes I just got off a stunningly incoherent earnings call"
X Link 2024-03-12T22:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON "an industry where so much capital has been incinerated.that the capacity for investors to rationally assess risk/reward has been fundamentally compromised." Latest piece on Cronos Group now up at link in bio"
X Link 2024-03-13T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 Truly bizarre this is available as a net-net which is a status generally reserved for enterprises with huge terminal value risk unsustainable rates of cash burn or otherwise no discernible path to value creation. $CRON does not fit the bill"
X Link 2024-03-13T16:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON While excise tax reform would obviously be welcomed (and will come) the longer the government drags its feet on this issue the better for Cronos. Why Because Cronos is built to withstand this hit to its margins whereas much of the competition is not. The government is in effect weeding out the competition for us the longer this goes. Another example of how there are many paths to winning here. $CRON The linked article reiterates many of the points I raised in today's write-up regarding the Canadian excise tax. At some point likely soon this tax will be reformed and those producers that"
X Link 2024-03-13T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Many Canadian cannabis companies have gone the way of insolvency and the excise tax is often the precipitant of the insolvency proceedings". So there are two key things of note here: 1) the excise tax is killing $CRON's competitors; and 2) the excise tax is ironically killing the government's own ability to profit off the excise tax (by exterminating the source). The latter point implies the gov' is itself incented to reform the tax"
X Link 2024-03-13T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@inner_scorecard @45WallSt @NICKRADICAL4 @nim_chef @kujakujo I think OGI is probably a better business (at least for now) and I really like the communication around the BTI partnership. But Cron is cheaper and Im in love with the balance sheet which is why thats my fighter of choice for now"
X Link 2024-03-13T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 @45WallSt @inner_scorecard @nim_chef @kujakujo @Organigram_Inc @cronosgroup Equipping OGI with Cron's balance sheet would create an unstoppable force"
X Link 2024-03-14T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stoiccapital72 I expect over time this will turn into a darling compounder like KKR BX and some of the other alts which likewise struggled to be understood as public companies early on"
X Link 2024-03-15T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree with all of this. Anecdotally I am in Canada at the moment and it has been really interesting to see how many folks many 60+ years of age who have a limited history of smoking cannabis and have avoided doing so due to bad experiences (i.e. getting too high by accident) but who are now regularly consuming edibles. Why Because the dosing is controlled and consistent - they find a product that feels right to them and they stick with it"
X Link 2024-03-15T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For example at $20/share $Tdw was available for but a tiny fraction of the replacement cost of its fleet. With a derisked balance sheet all you really needed to determine was whether offshore might turn out to be something of value in the world moving forward"
X Link 2024-03-17T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ROIV is in a way the $CRON of biotech in that the market is paying you to take the business ($6.2B net cash + $2.5B $IMVT stake (total $8.7B) vs. market cap of $8.2B) and in exchange you get all kinds of free call options and catalysts that could result in large upside (e.g. IMVT sale [--] ongoing P2 and [--] trials upside from the $ABUS litigation optionality from the cash). The story is definitely not as clean as $cron given cash burn uncertain viability of pipeline and IMVT stake could obviously end up being worthless but it makes no sense that the market is giving us all of this optionality"
X Link 2024-03-18T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ On the topline demand also seems to be picking up. More than 50% of Sportmans' business is firearms related and a decent chunk of that is surely Smith and Wesson products. $SWBI noted in their recent earnings PR that "We continue to expect the firearm market to experience healthy demand through the [----] election cycle" and "inventory in the distribution channel declined from October levels in terms of actual units and weeks of inventory indicating strong sell through of our products at retail." That's some evidence that sales aren't falling off a cliff"
X Link 2024-03-18T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ Meanwhile on the other categories (e.g. camping outdoor apparel etc.) demand also looks solid per competitors. $DKS just reported its largest quarterly sales in history while $HIBB sales have held up and are guiding flat for next year. Not perfect comps but this suggests to me that unless there is some idiosyncratic risk with Sportmans I am missing then demand should be fine"
X Link 2024-03-18T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI excise tax reform is not a question of if but of when. There is a very clear catalyst on the horizon that is going to materially improve profitability for producers. Yet despite this being telegraphed no one seems to care. https://thedeepdive.ca/canadian-cannabis-producers-face-severe-financial-distress-report/ https://thedeepdive.ca/canadian-cannabis-producers-face-severe-financial-distress-report/"
X Link 2024-03-18T17:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ttril22 Both but much larger position in Cronos for the time being"
X Link 2024-03-20T03:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The longer I do this the more I become convinced that betting on companies getting acquired like this probably isn't the best approach to compounding wealth. Sure you may make a quick 50% but you're probably paying hefty taxes on that gain and then you need to go find something else to deploy your capital into. And at some point you'll likely get it wrong and take large a drawdown. No doubt some have real skill doing this but most investors are likely kidding themselves that this strategy will work well for them in the long run. $LFCR Another example. I have said it before and Ill say it"
X Link 2024-03-20T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2. Relatedly margin of safety: Given the valuation premium is due to optimism around Rescheduling the US MSOs are more exposed to downside in the event Rescheduling fails to materialize. On the other hand CRON and OGI are not being given any credit for the Rescheduling opportunity and likely still do well if no progress is made in the US given that they have huge upside merely from the Canadian opportunity alone. We have more 'shots on goal'"
X Link 2024-03-22T14:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3. Finally misunderstood competitive advantages. Operating w/ cannabis as a Schedule I substance has forced MSOs to inherently develop in an awkward inorganic way such that they are not equipped to survive the competition that will ensue once the market opens nationally. CRON and OGI on the other hand have invested heavily in brand and product development (brands are how market share is won in largely commoditized consumables - think beer tobacco etc. ) have narrow focus (i.e. production) and have $MO and $BTI backing them (and the large distribution networks cheap capital and know-how that"
X Link 2024-03-22T14:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON $OGI Just this week we have had: 1) Partial German legalization 2) The FDA finding that cannabis has clear medicinal benefits clearing the way for the DEA to reschedule it and 3) A report released by a federal committee in Canada recommending a new excise tax model Three jurisdictions in which we have enormous potential economic interests all making clear progress on improving regulatory hurdles in just one week. How's that for catalysts Now imagine the magnitude of the move when the Canadian and US proposals crystallize into law. Just a matter of time"
X Link 2024-03-23T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In which industries might such a transformation be presently underway Cannabis office real estate in blue chip cities What else In that downturnthings happen internally to businesses. They downsize they right size they consolidateand therefore you get a much better business if it survives.and you get a competitive landscape that potentially changes. In that downturnthings happen internally to businesses. They downsize they right size they consolidateand therefore you get a much better business if it survives.and you get a competitive landscape that potentially changes"
X Link 2024-03-24T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cannabis: in Canada indoor licensed production area has declined 40% from a high of 2.2m m2 in May [----] to $1.7m m2 as of Sept. [----]. Essentially every month sees further declines. In [----] 40% of CCAA insolvencies were cannabis companies; a further 12% last year"
X Link 2024-03-24T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The office story is perhaps more difficult and in earlier innings but the trend looks to be moving the right way:"
X Link 2024-03-24T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@QuantStrategist Yeah I dont think the German opportunity is as of yet that big of deal. However its telling how much the sector moved last week of how poor sentiment has been. Imagine the move when there are real regulatory changes in Canada and the US"
X Link 2024-03-24T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah I hear that though that sentiment is largely what's creating the opportunity here. CRON was net-net as recently as like [--] days ago before the big run here. Very rapid industry consolidation combined with inevitable and quickly materializing regulatory tailwinds and there should be a pot of gold awaiting for a small number of these companies. Big Tobacco being the large shareholders in a couple these names provides some comfort. Time will tell. It was the same thing I was constantly hearing two years ago when I bought Tidewater ('can't even trust offshore management') and that hasn't"
X Link 2024-03-28T02:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks for sharing. I was notified of this report last week but had not yet read it. Decent overview of the set-up but I don't understand their financial projections in the slightest for reasons I shared here. I hear you that it's always wise to be skeptical underwriting pre-rev pharma but their numbers don't make any sense to me at all"
X Link 2024-03-29T19:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"99m SEK of sales in [----] with half of that being the milestones - so about 5m USD in sales They then note that there will be a significant increase in sales by [----] which they don't include in their underwriting. That increase is going to be a lot more than "significant". If Craig and Cipher are right they should be earning that or more from Canadian royalties alone"
X Link 2024-03-29T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Favorite longs heading into Q2: $MOB.ST $CRON $CLMT $ROIV $TDW + a new position I'll likely be sharing on @evfcfaddict's spaces event on April [--]. $CPH.TO still my second largest holding after TDW and haven't sold a share but I'm not sure we see much movement until we get further news on the foreshadowed M&A"
X Link 2024-03-29T19:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I think thats because its highly likely that its going to be generating huge profits relative to its present market cap in a couple years. Its deep value you just need conviction about the (not so distant) future to believe that. Grow + value is where the generational wealth gets made in many cases"
X Link 2024-03-31T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TrentBlair19 The ideal situations are those where we can find each present"
X Link 2024-04-02T02:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ogi just did a sizeable equity raise so they should be okay for liquidity. I agree its probably a better business but I still favor Cron due to the balance sheet and the optionality that comes with it the Spinach brand (which is really starting to develop allegiance based on my scuttlebutt) and valuation. Another way to view it: ogi is the more likely [--] bagger cron has more downside protection (still could be a [--] bagger depending on how they allocate the cash which for now is a drag on the equity)"
X Link 2024-04-04T06:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is clearly in and shares offer well over 100% from here over the next year or so. My takeaways:"
X Link 2024-04-04T16:26Z [----] followers, 13K engagements
"3)sales came in at the low range citing continued weakness in the consumer which is likely to continue for the quarters ahead. Nevertheless management guided to 55m NTM EBITDA which puts shares at less than 5x this sub-normal figure (way too cheap)"
X Link 2024-04-04T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can hold on to forever at an enormous discount. It doesn't take a financial savant to ascertain that these will be worth many multiples in the decades to come.it merely requires the ability do nothing and wait. https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 US land exposures been painful in recent days. Some of the best land in"
X Link 2024-04-05T16:11Z [----] followers, 18.8K engagements
"Correction: I am now long $HHH at $66.80. Silly Mr. Market. $HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can hold on to $HHH $JOE These are two of the companies I had front of mind with this tweet yesterday. No position in either but these are basically infinite duration assets that sell off on daily interest rate concerns.a beautiful opportunity to buy a piece of America you can"
X Link 2024-04-05T16:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@masiero_giacomo Yup lol. Pretty confident you'll be sitting on a [--] bagger in a decade"
X Link 2024-04-05T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Aeleons @AmheShay Sorry I missed this. Yeah obviously the YPF stuff is a catalyst. But value is its own catalyst over time. The returns on capital are just way too high for this to be a value trap over the long-term. I'm happy to wait for the market to come to its sense"
X Link 2024-04-05T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah Ive seen this. Anyone who thinks $HHH and $JOE wont create value should probably read about Donald Bren. The insight with things like this is that all the value is in the far distant future. Deferred gratification is the name of the game if your goal is truly generational wealth"
X Link 2024-04-05T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I should probably own the $VAL warrants shouldnt I"
X Link 2024-04-05T19:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@capitaloptimism I have every intention of becoming a JOE shareholder one day hopefully soon. HHC trading down below the Ackman put just makes it a little more brainless. JOE is honestly probably better I just have a thing for stocks that have been selling off hard"
X Link 2024-04-05T19:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Take a spin through the investor deck and ask yourself whether it makes sense that you can buy the equity for this incredible collection of quality assets for only some $3B. That doesnt remotely pass the smell test to me. Then ask yourself whether that equity could conceivably be worth $30B a decade or so from now. I would answer definitely: yes. You can create elaborate models trying to pinpoint the intrinsic value but sometimes it really is that simple. These guys are building world class cities throughout America tailored to very obvious demographic/socioeconomic trends and retaining huge"
X Link 2024-04-06T01:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Among other things: 1) a tough period for real estate exacerbated by COVID and then the following period of rate hikes; 2) a lot the capital looking for real estate in public markets is focused on dividend paying REITs rather than something like this where the priority for cash flow is reinvestment; 3) relatedly these developments take a very long time -- as I said the real value for these things is years out and most don't have that timeframe; 4) many investors don't trust Bill Ackman and think he will be the only shareholder that ever makes money out of this (these fears I think are"
X Link 2024-04-06T01:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Its the consistent violation of this rule that explains why despite the fact many are capable of putting up 20%+ annual returns that so few people actually compound their way to meaningful wealth. Buy right and sit tight. The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily. And yet many simply cant resist the compulsion to trade out of a very high probability multibagger simply because its gone up a mere [--] percent. Picked up some more $MOB.ST here. The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily. And yet many simply cant resist the compulsion to trade"
X Link 2024-04-08T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ Because each project requires an ad hoc approach BQE is often brought in during the pre-operating phase to help devise a tailored solution. This might involve the use of BQE's patented technologies or it might require BQE to develop a new approach. Fees for these services are segmented as "Technical Services" which have grown at a 40% CAGR since [----]. Impressive growth but it pales compared to what comes next"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ Not every project will move into its operating phase but for those that do BQE will handle water treatment. This is a very good recurring revenue business: BQE essentially charges monthly fees or a toll based on the volumes of water treated. This service is required for the entire operating life of the mine as well as for a period post closure meaning these contracts can last for well over [--] years. This is a very high-margin business and significantly BQE's partners bear the associated capex meaning it's an asset light model and requires little reinvestment for continued growth.And is it"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7) In addition to the growth the quality of this business needs to be emphasized. It requires very little capital to grow and BQE possesses a number of competitive advantages due to its patents sticky long-duration relationships regulatory requirements early mover advantage and a general lack of competitors in the space (60% of projects are sole sourced)"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"8) Capital allocation. Firstly there has been virtually no dilution for the better part of a decade.that plus the absence of debt is a testament to how little capital is needed to grow. So the majority of cash flow is available to distribute. The company has initiated a buyback for 5% of shares. The float is incredibly tight with 1.25m shares out and over half of that held by insiders and larger investors. So not only will buybacks be accretive given the stock is way too cheap but shares are going to be in increasingly short supply"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"9) Okay valuation. Shares trade for $43 which is good for a market cap of CAD$53m. With $7m of cash and de minimis debt EV is around $45m. With continued ramping of new recurring revenue projects BQE should easily be able to do close to $10m of EBITDA by [----]. 4.5x EBITDA is way too cheap for a company growing this fast with such underlying economics. At 10x EBITDA the stock would be worth closer to $100/share after accounting for incremental cash build. And it should be worth more over time as new recurring revenue is stacked on top of preexisting contracts which won't be rolling off for"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"10/ Why does the opportunity exist In addition to being an illiquid Canadian venture stock I'd posit two things. First the company touches the mining sector which likely causes many to dismiss it and miss the underlying quality of the business. Second and relatedly the company previously earned most of its income from the sale of extracted metals (mainly copper) out of certain JVs in China; this is a declining and cyclical business that has masked both the quality and growth of the core the business. This is becoming an increasingly small part of the business though there is upside if the"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"11/ Insiders own a good chunk of stock and have done a really good job transforming this business. From all appearances these guys make for good leaders in what is a quasi-private investment given the tightness of the float. There's a fair bit more to the story but I'll save that for the blog"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"12/ Note: This is illiquid and often has a fairly wide bid-ask. I'm also being imprecise in my numbers/estimates and language. DYODD as always. I'm personally long for an average cost of $40/share"
X Link 2024-04-09T01:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Never hurts to ask👀 I think I found the answer I think I found the answer"
X Link 2024-04-09T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"6/ Yes HHH is superficially a far more complex story but I'd posit the key to the thesis lies in these same deceptively simple insights. The company is building and retaining interests in word class cities throughout America that benefit from very real and secular demographic and socioeconomic tailwinds. Are these assets likely to be something of value [--] or [--] years from now Is that value highly certain to be far greater than the market is currently pricing today And is the direction of interest rates for the next couple years going to have any material impact on the value of our interest"
X Link 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7/ It is easy to get bogged down in the minutiae the jargon the prevailing mood around the company and the industry but if we zoom out what I see is collection of high quality near infinite duration assets with every tailwind behind them.available at a very clear discount to NAV. A great set-up for retail investors with a long-horizon IMO"
X Link 2024-04-10T19:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One thing to consider is the stock is now well below Ackman's recent buying. Another is that interest rate sensitivity however silly I think it is for this company should work the other direction too - i.e. if and when there's a cut the stock should rally. To be clear that's not a relevant consideration for my thesis which is simply the opportunity to buy an infinite duration piece of America at a steep discount"
X Link 2024-04-10T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AC173467321 Is the balance sheet really problematic though Vast majority of debt matures years out from here and most of it is fixed or swapped"
X Link 2024-04-10T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@fintwit_wannabe @AC173467321 You believe that to still be the case now four years removed"
X Link 2024-04-10T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@returnoncap Well he's actually stepping down but there will be another Pershing person joining the board. I am not sure how much there is to read into this. I've seen some nefarious intentions imputed based on this but it's probably nothing"
X Link 2024-04-10T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI The Canadian federal budget will be released next week. Will it include excise tax reform In my view the competitively advantaged well-financed LPs stand to benefit from whatever decision is made: obviously if the tax is reformed margins will explode; however if the status quo is retained consolidation will continue at an accelerated pace further deepening and entrenching the competitive positioning of the blue-chips. A "Capital Returns" case study in real time. "40 percent of producers may go out of business over the next [--] months as the federal government starts cracking down on"
X Link 2024-04-12T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I added a bunch of $OGI here. Either we get a major move next week on excise tax reform; if not a chance to buy a firm whose bright future will only become brighter with the continuation of this draconian tax.at a huge discount to its future earnings power"
X Link 2024-04-12T18:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@parlay_town I tweeted out my disappointment when it happened. But the stock has overreacted and now the balance sheet is very strong. So its even more interesting for new shareholders here than it was immediately preceding the dilution"
X Link 2024-04-12T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"💯. Buy quality long-duration when sentiment is poor due to near-term uncertainty but where the business is also highly certain to be worth a lot more over an extended time horizon. BUR definitley fits the bill as does my current favorite theme $HHH $JOE. Names like this are unownable to any capital constrained by short-term mandates. I always ask: even if X bear case does play out is it going to make any difference to the firms value over the long-term Often the answer is clearly no"
X Link 2024-04-14T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every tailwind behind it. $HHH Price venturing further and further into the absurdadded again $HHH Price venturing further and further into the absurdadded again"
X Link 2024-04-15T18:52Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements
"@valueventurez No view. What are your thoughts"
X Link 2024-04-15T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I like $CRON a lot because it has a huge cash balance trades at close to net cash is [--] percent owned by Altria has dominant market share in edibles and some interesting global investments. Its also cash flow positive despite the draconian excise tax.margins will explode if the tax is reformed tomorrow; if there is no reform its built to survive while most others wont. I own far of this than OGI. I wrote it up on my blog if interested"
X Link 2024-04-15T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre not wrong though I would not underestimate the long run demand for affordable and large homes low crime rates and income tax rates and the feel of living in a community. Younger generations in NYC e.g are being flattened by inflation and giving up on the America dream of owning a real home and raising a family comfortably. As someone who lives NYC i [---] percent see the appeal of these communities"
X Link 2024-04-16T17:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Im still out here saying $cron and $ogi should merge to form the undisputed juggernaut cannabis producer. Regardless I do think we see some consolidation through acquisition now that it has become essentially hopeless for most the companies in the space. The balance sheet strength really starts coming into play now"
X Link 2024-04-17T00:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@HiddeMulder2 Can you elaborate not sure what you mean"
X Link 2024-04-17T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"People are so caught up with the capital gains tax increase which is annoying but the real issue is the uncontrolled fiscal spending which is only going to exacerbate rampant inflation which of course is the most pernicious of all taxes. The middle class is already being flattened by inflationary pressures increasing the tax to further fund reckless spending is mere insult to injury"
X Link 2024-04-17T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SMalikjo Have $NRP as my energy royalty play but that's probably a good bet too. Wasn't there some corporate governance drama over there recently - not close to the name"
X Link 2024-04-21T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm no laser eyes guy and you'll find more articulate theses elsewhere but my two cents. 1) Money supply is going parabolic and the continuation of this trend appears all but guaranteed as there's no other path to getting out of the fiscal debt burden; 2) more money = more demand for assets; 3) generally increased demand is over time met with a supply response stabilizing price increases (e.g. housing commodities etc); 4) the BTC protocol inherently prevents a supply response (will only ever be 21m BTC some 19m is already created much of that is lost or otherwise permanently offline); 5) over"
X Link 2024-04-21T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The land bank is the biggest piece of NAV and will be for years. They lay it out nicely in the investor deck. Take #s with a grain of salt of course but you can take the avg. price/acre multiplied across the retained acreage at some growth rate apply the cash margin and discount it back"
X Link 2024-04-21T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay I think it's time I actually own some $JOE. Growth coming out of here is unbelievable and the stock just gets cheaper with each print. @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC. @ADHD_Capital American land ( $JOE $HHH) competitively advantaged energy names ( prob $VLO but $TDW or $NRP fine too) tobacco ( $MO $BTI) and sorry in advance to the 'but it has no intrinsic value' crowd but $BTC"
X Link 2024-04-25T13:25Z [----] followers, 16K engagements
"If anyone wants to connect in Omaha feel free to reach out. Ill be there Thurs AM through Sunday night. 🫡"
X Link 2024-04-28T17:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Phenomenal listen I'm delighted to share the latest episode of the #RicherWiserHappier podcast: a very rare in-depth interview with Bryan Lawrencea terrific hedge fund manager who is one of the most thoughtful investors I know. To listen: https://t.co/cD7pVnRTs5 https://t.co/ENWka9mw8X I'm delighted to share the latest episode of the #RicherWiserHappier podcast: a very rare in-depth interview with Bryan Lawrencea terrific hedge fund manager who is one of the most thoughtful investors I know. To listen: https://t.co/cD7pVnRTs5 https://t.co/ENWka9mw8X"
X Link 2024-04-28T18:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What are some of the best resources to get up to speed on the uranium bull thesis"
X Link 2024-04-30T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I own a little $RIG now. I think $5 is going to look pretty silly in time. Imagine owning these assets in a decade"
X Link 2024-04-30T14:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SebKrog The reality is that many would prefer to herd follow play status games and hopefully appear smart rather than actually make money"
X Link 2024-05-04T20:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thats true haha. But what Ill never understand is the retail guy who thinks his investible universe is the same size as Buffetts. I know plenty of people with less than 1M who spend endless hours trying to decide between google and Amazon. They refuse to believe it can be easier than that"
X Link 2024-05-04T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"You dont need to go this tiny or illiquid either. E.g. theres a fairly high probability move like this coming in $VAL over the next [--] months"
X Link 2024-05-06T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kingdomcapadv @Steven_Kiel Very interesting. Never got comfortable valuing Life Sciences but even with a 1x sales multiple + NCAV there's a fairly decent discount to liquidation value (potential value for real estate too) . Any concerns about the settlements materially impacting the math"
X Link 2024-05-06T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CuriosityInves @hammeredcapital These opportunities haven't existed since the 50s and even if they still did you're not Buffett and wouldn't be able to figure out if something at 3x FCF with 1/2 its market cap in cash and sustainable demand might end up being a good idea"
X Link 2024-05-06T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@2021_stonks @CuriosityInves @hammeredcapital As I've said before everyone cosplays as a Buffett disciple in the abstract but then completely dismisses his advice in practice. https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 There are so many incredible long-duration opportunities still out there right now being made possible by the ubiquitous myopia that pervades markets today. Every year droves of investors flock to Omaha to hear sermons on how generational wealth is created simply through the https://x.com/ragingbullcap/status/1775969929155547594 There are so many incredible"
X Link 2024-05-06T19:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sharpeshark @gasparespontin1 The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily"
X Link 2024-05-06T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can you guys please stop buying $VAL😭"
X Link 2024-05-08T15:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is the piece the 'but it's a cult stock' guys miss. Even if there's doughnut risk with a fairly high probably say 50% (I personally don't think the probability of a zero is remotely that high fwiw but there's certainly 'some' risk) the path for a potential 10x or more is clear enough to make this a very obvious +ev bet. If you've thought about this opportunity clearly and done the work I struggle to understand how one walks away thinking this isn't worth any allocation at all"
X Link 2024-05-08T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There appears to be an unbridgeable divide between those who think current and past income generation is relevant here and those that dont. I look at the land appreciation and what NOI might look like a decade out and that story continues to track but I could very well end up being a moron"
X Link 2024-05-09T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah sorry I'm not being clear thanks for calling that out. I am anchoring to my cost basis (which is about half the current share price) - do I think you can clearly underwrite a [--] bagger from here Not without everything going absolutely perfectly as advertised (certainly not remotely my base or even bull case). But I don't think $500m (give or take) is outrageously ambitious assuming crucially that they actually capture material parts of the US market (obviously the $70m in milestone entitlements helps with that math). I am far from a mega-bull here but I do think the r/r on this is quite"
X Link 2024-05-11T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NestBetter I knew it was bad but wow"
X Link 2024-05-13T01:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ENZ Latest piece at link in bio. This has been a graveyard for investors but with the market cap ($54m) now approx. equal to NCAV (which includes $60m cash) and the remainco improving and now profitable at the segment level r/r is quite compelling here imo"
X Link 2024-05-13T13:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3/ Enzo is subject to ongoing class action litigation related to a ransomware attack last year. Though this injects some uncertainty into the SOTP math precedent settlements arising out of similar cyberattacks have not exceeded [--] figures. With $3m of insurance coverage and a loss provision already having been taken the impact should not be particularly concerning particularly given the discount (though there is tail risk)"
X Link 2024-05-13T14:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ The company is aggressively cleaning up its balance sheet making cash burn appear higher than it is. Cash balance declined $9m QoQ but NCAV only declined $3m. Applying a range of burn rates real estate values litigation liabilities and 2-4x gross profit for ELS my SOTP math arrives at $1.24/share even in the bear case and $2.41/share or higher in the bull case (+125%)"
X Link 2024-05-13T14:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As always pls DYODD and feel free to push back on anything stupid I've said. 🫡"
X Link 2024-05-13T14:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not something I've discussed here really but I am 1/5 allocated to $BTC. Yes it has no intrinsic value and no I don't believe western civilization is on the precipice of collapse. But with an endlessly expanding fiat supply and increasing amounts of btc's inherently fixed supply coming offline (exacerbated by institutional adoption) I struggle to see how the price doesn't materially squeeze higher. That's basically it: econ101 with some Soros reflexivity dynamics (with the unique caveat that there definitionally can't be a supply response to trigger the 'bust' as the model predicts - the bust"
X Link 2024-05-15T22:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Barry59700119 What might a better protocol look like Seems to me many of its shortcomings are also its virtues"
X Link 2024-05-15T23:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Well you do need to believe in the demand part of the equation but you could say the say thing about gold couldn't you If fiat is being debased people will look to something as a store of value - it seems to me superior in everyway to gold and one far likelier to be adopted by younger cohorts. I do think the theory of reflexivity helps here conceptually - as the price goes up demand increases as people chase in turn driving further scarcity.it is no doubt circular but it happens in markets all the time.the difference is that in the ordinary course there is a supply response which reverses the"
X Link 2024-05-16T00:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's the strongest non-macro/non-coal price bear case for $HCC Struggling to come up with reasons to not size this up"
X Link 2024-05-16T13:09Z [----] followers, 21.1K engagements
"@PythiaR Any specific hang up"
X Link 2024-05-16T19:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Uzo_Investor Alternatively: 1) capital light 2) Valaris 😂"
X Link 2024-05-16T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LQDA it's an indictment of our legal system that the commercialization of a life altering drug has been held up this long due to the number of avenues UTHR has been able to avail itself of. Broadly the time and resources exhausted by the Kafkaesque procedural apparatus of the legal system is asinine and one of the many reasons I exited the profession"
X Link 2024-05-17T17:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Of course its a clear incentive of the billable hour model to maximize the intricacies of the procedural labyrinth; I will never cease to be amazed at the inventiveness of high paid lawyers in devising ways to inflict what amounts to nothing more than dead weight loss upon society"
X Link 2024-05-17T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON ChatGPT is also long 😂"
X Link 2024-05-18T20:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$sei.v Assuming that 20B is right thats almost 1B of value for Sintana before giving credit to all its other assets which are becoming higher probability shots on goal with each discovery and could easily be worth more turns on the current market cap. Was a buyer at [----] but its arguably cheaper now at [----] given derisking. Added some more today. Bloomberg says: "Whole asset could be worth $20bn based on oil estimates". Not sure who made those or how but that would translate into almost $1bn for $SEI.V stake at least as being carried makes it more valuable. Now check again the current mcap"
X Link 2024-05-21T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I find this to be true in nearly every instance. The difficultly of course is both being able to trust your convictions (yes it may well actually be that obvious) and being ready to strike when the opportunity comes (which might require divesting of other ideas we like to free up capital) - in other words rationally assessing opportunity cost. Never easy"
X Link 2024-05-24T12:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BTC holdings + crypto mining opco + a massive stake in $TPL + stock exchanges (MIAX - soon to IPO) + an interest in various funds that own essentially the same hodgepodge of assets + 5% of Horizon Kinetics (soon to be public through $SLGD reverse merger). Who wants to own this Value guys are generally adverse to all things crypto; on the other hand why wouldn't crypto guys just directly hold BTC + it's illiquid pink and uses confusing consolidated accounting"
X Link 2024-05-24T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Think the MIAX stake is worth $20m based on recent private placement (though that might include the non-controlling interest) plus $40m cash. The stock definitely trades at premium to book so the question becomes how much of a premium it deserves- 25% BVPS CAGR is pretty damn impressive but you need to be able to fully grasp the value the mining creates and I am not quite there yet. I personally love the underlying assets and I think NAV is going to grow a lot but the question for me then is why own this as opposed to the underlying holdings I bought a starter because these guys clearly know"
X Link 2024-05-25T19:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BerkelKip Most recent earnings call was very informative if you haven't heard it yet"
X Link 2024-05-25T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@D1Fund On the balance sheet I thought they dumped it all"
X Link 2024-05-30T15:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$SPWH Sadly ratcheting up the prospects for civil war is the mega bull case here. 1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is clearly in and shares offer well over 1) $SPWH Sportmans which I highlighted at the link in bio (and was too early) is up 25% this morning after its Q4 results and earnings call commentary provided very convincing evidence that the ship has been righted. I think the bottom is"
X Link 2024-05-30T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I have a full length on sbstack but 1) by far the best balance sheet nearly entire market cap cash 2) leading brands in specialties (edibles vapes) and 3) 40% owned by Altria - to answer your question above yes I think this will look a lot like tobacco and who better to bet on than MO"
X Link 2024-05-31T03:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's your favorite real estate play at the moment"
X Link 2024-05-31T19:13Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"$ICAD If you're long or close to the story I'd appreciate hearing from you. DMs are open. $ICAD Here's a pureplay AI medtech company transitioning to a SaaS model well positioned to capture a decent share of a massive TAM that is in its first inning (AI solutions for cancer detection) that up until this run up today was available for.yep 1xEV/Sales (w/ 50% $ICAD Here's a pureplay AI medtech company transitioning to a SaaS model well positioned to capture a decent share of a massive TAM that is in its first inning (AI solutions for cancer detection) that up until this run up today was"
X Link 2024-06-03T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BQE.V Will soon be releasing a short pt [--] piece highlighting the "company-maker projects" opportunity. While the company hasn't provided any specifics on when we might be able to expect one of these if it all some online sleuthing indicates that there's a strong possibility that a large operations project (potentially worth the entire current run-rate ARR) might be on its way soon. Will get it out by end of week hopefully"
X Link 2024-06-05T18:47Z [----] followers, 17.8K engagements
"A little hint: NI 43-101 + BQE"
X Link 2024-06-05T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If I am right we're looking at mid-teens EBITDA from the recurring revenue segment in a few years out vs. an EV of $70m today. That puts this at 5x ish (call it 2027) EBITDA before any accounting for technical services segment contributions and cash generation. Market has fallen asleep here with shares below $60 imo"
X Link 2024-06-05T19:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Well there's this for one - i.e. even one company maker project doubles earnings and I am pretty confident we can see one coming soon. But perhaps more broadly look at the unit at economics on the selenium tech. Q1 recurring revenue grew 115% YoY despite the company treating pretty much the equivalent volume of water. I've never understood the concerns about scale much because you don't need more than a one operating project annually to make a huge difference at this stage. Scale could become an issue down the road for sure but earnings should be multiplies higher by the time that becomes an"
X Link 2024-06-06T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@retails_edge @simcox_gm If the price of btc goes where I think its going Ive got all the time in the world"
X Link 2024-06-07T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah I dont think its hairy with respect to downside on the equity - in fact think the margin of safety is very big. It's just hairy with respect to the sustainability of run rate cash flow giving the Livingston overhang. But at 10% div yield markets already pricing this in it appears. Think its very cheap and asymmetric"
X Link 2024-06-07T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@simcox_gm @retails_edge Yeah I likewise don't think its much more complicated. There's the market value of its BTC + Gox claims and then some premium on that to account for mining operations and electronics. It's a bet on bitcoin with some potential torque given the operations and event optionality"
X Link 2024-06-07T18:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ while the debt looks scary it's nearly all non-recourse with a 4% weighted average rate and the vast majority of the principal not due until [--] and beyond. The private market equity value of Tribeca Clover and Pacific alone are = to the current market cap giving us the rest of the business for free. (I recognize there'd be tax consequences and other issues with simply foreclosing on everything else but again just framing things)"
X Link 2024-06-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Currently trading at 10% dividend yield or $16m annual dist. which they were even able to sustain during COVID. Run-rate AFFO $24m clearly covers this. But of course the issue here and the overhang more broadly is with [---] Livingston lease termination which comprises 15% of NOI. The problem is compounded by the likely () termination of [---] Livingston as well (another low teen % of NOI) as well further funding for Dean. But at a 10% div yield isn't a cut to AFFO already priced in"
X Link 2024-06-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Could you be wiped out though the debt is all non-recourse What's really interesting here imo is that if you wanted to acquire this portfolio today pro forma Dean (ignore Livingston issues for a moment) you'd pay (assuming 90m NOI at a blended [--] cap) something like $1.48B but you'd never get this much debt. Maybe you'd get 65% LTV So 960m of debt and you'd need to fork over some $500m of equity. But the equity trades publicly at $160m today so we are creating an ownership interest in all of these assets that could never be achieved today and because the debt is non-recourse to the c-corp we"
X Link 2024-06-08T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Maklarmatte @missingmiddle They own some 60% of the interest via commons and LLC units"
X Link 2024-06-08T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockgutter $NRP. Yield looks like a measly 3% right now but pro forma debt and pref extinguishment by sometime [----] were looking at a mid-teens yield thats more sustainable than the market is crediting. 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties while AMR is likewise NRP's largest customer (1/4-1/3 of sales). Yet NRP has 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging"
X Link 2024-06-08T22:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@smcap_thinking Thanks. Is there something in the piece I said in the piece in tension with your points here"
X Link 2024-06-12T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Big moves from this basket today particularly $JBGS. Regardless of whether this holds in the short term these things are screaming cheap and I think should significantly outperform over the next couple years. I think negative sentiment around a lot publicly traded RE is way over done and that theres a ton of opportunity here w a long enough time horizon rate cuts or not. In addition to $HHH Ive been buying $JBGS and some $CLPR (an interesting albeit hairy setup Ill likely have I think negative sentiment around a lot publicly traded RE is way over done and that theres a ton of opportunity here"
X Link 2024-06-12T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$mreo I promised myself to not buy anymore of this but it's too difficult to pass on at 3.75"
X Link 2024-06-12T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Another head scratcher here: $rare which is some 8x larger than $mreo and has a much broader pipeline is up 8.5% on setru data gaining +$300m in value. Mereo meanwhile is now up less than 5%. Yes rare has the more valuable US rights but a +$300m increase in market cap vs $30m for Mereo is completely unhinged"
X Link 2024-06-12T18:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Maklarmatte Would not be surprised to see $5 at some point"
X Link 2024-06-13T14:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CRON $OGI quality LPs getting to silly valuations here again as market grows concerned about rescheduling efforts. But rescheduling is merely an opened ended call option for these names which have more than enough upside from the improving Canadian landscape. I've been adding a little to this already large exposure"
X Link 2024-06-17T14:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"For now that's definitely true - prices are likely to be untethered from valuation as the entire sector trades like a meme. But the fundamental downside risk is negligible for these two names given the net cash and asset value; therefore you're effectively getting a call option on all the industry catalysts without taking the downside risk attached to some many of these stocks. Over time as the industry shakes out the weak hands and gains legitimacy quality and valuation will matter"
X Link 2024-06-17T14:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V heavy sell off today on no news likely due to capital gains tax change going into effect next week. Added some. Canadian clearly banking winners ahead of the cap gains tax treatment changewhich small/microcaps are you looking to take the other side $BQE.V is mine Canadian clearly banking winners ahead of the cap gains tax treatment changewhich small/microcaps are you looking to take the other side $BQE.V is mine"
X Link 2024-06-19T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$geo another one the market is giving away here imo $geo group remains a great long idea imo. significant potential for new contract wins +substantial revenues at several of these facilities. ICE needs capacity in [--] regions. based on the current unused capacity at North Lake and Delaney Hall and hopefully some common sense we https://t.co/hZEhCNqElf $geo group remains a great long idea imo. significant potential for new contract wins +substantial revenues at several of these facilities. ICE needs capacity in [--] regions. based on the current unused capacity at North Lake and Delaney Hall and"
X Link 2024-06-21T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How do you arrive at that I think that's the low end not the max. In FRMO's [----] letter Stahl says the value of Winland's Mt Gox claims "is currently about $600K on a conservative basis". The price of BTC was hovering around 10K when he wrote that letter so that would suggest that it's at least [--] BTC. Curious to hear pushback"
X Link 2024-06-24T17:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4/ $CRON (-13.7%). After being up 20% on the Q on rescheduling news shares gave it all back and more on cartoonish investor anxiety's about the progress of rescheduling particularly silly in this case given Cronos barely has US exposure at this point. The fundamentals continue to improve with both top line growth and margin expansion. And the optionality from the fortress balance sheet is so valuable in a capital constrained and rapidly changing sector. Would not be surprised to see Cronos make a bid on a competitor if valuations stay compressed like this. Ultimately investors need to deal"
X Link 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"5/ $ROIV (-2.69%). Good example of the frustration I highlighted in last week's "where I'm looking for value" post as it concerns XBI. I've previously described it as the Cronos of biotech -- ie you're essentially paying for the balance sheet and getting a ton of free options. Some of those options are now more in the money than they were before but this biotech market doesn't seem to care until value is crystallized. But the particularly crazy thing here imo is that the company has been buying back a ton of stock on the cheap including $648m (9% of shares) from a legacy shareholder at"
X Link 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"10/ $JBGS I've been talking about the need for returns of capital to get around the lack of incremental buyers to put the right multiple on your stock. Well between divs (5%) and buybacks JBGS is currently yielding 17%. This is a share cannibal run by smart allocators that essentially has a local monopoly within an area exposed to huge tailwinds. I think this is a very likely multibagger over the long-run while in the near-term I think we see a big move on any indication of a rate cut"
X Link 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"11/ $CRON. This is really oversold here and I suspect Dems will be eager to push cannabis reform as we get closer to the election"
X Link 2024-06-30T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Would it kill $BUR to do a buyback Clearly no one else wants the stock"
X Link 2024-07-01T15:25Z [----] followers, 13.3K engagements
"Coal piece of this off to good start. Man are these things cheap $btu $nrp Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS https://t.co/qVjBmhwR1R Just published some musings regarding current market dynamics and where I'm currently spending my time. Some specific and brief thoughts on: $NRP $BTU $MREO $HHH $JBGS $CLPR $CRON $MSOS https://t.co/qVjBmhwR1R"
X Link 2024-07-01T17:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AndrewIng8 They could be right theoretically but the market clearly doesnt care and buybacks would be extremely accretive here assuming YPF works out even a bit"
X Link 2024-07-01T18:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V some good insights shared by management during this presentation last week. Worthwhile listen for existing or prospective shareholders. Two key items which I dont believe theyve previously provided specifics on: 1) there are [--] different company-maker projects in the pipeline (and it sounds like the KSM one we tracked down is actually #2 in terms of potential timing in transitioning to operations - we should get confirmation on the first by the end of this year and is an operating mine expansion) and 2) potential bolt on acquisitions which will improve the breadth and economics of"
X Link 2024-07-01T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"How many of the commentators on here having apoplectic fits over these SCOTUS opinions have taken their time to read them in full let alone even attempted to fully comprehend them Id guess its substantially less than one percent"
X Link 2024-07-02T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MarijuanaMoment Think we need to start raising the standards for getting a law degree. This is not coherent"
X Link 2024-07-03T15:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@siyul @Investing501 @Valuations @LittleOwlRes @stockspinoffss Other thing to consider is simply interest rates - if we do get a cut thats the likely a catalyst"
X Link 2024-07-05T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BQE.V Early stages but obviously positive to see the pipeline for Selen-IX treatment growing given the economics for this technology. Promising to see further geographic diversification as well. https://www.bqewater.com/first-selenium-treatment-project-in-latin-america/ https://www.bqewater.com/first-selenium-treatment-project-in-latin-america/"
X Link 2024-07-10T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Avoided civil war by a millimeter"
X Link 2024-07-13T23:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GEO I've always believed rule by the Ds not Rs is more long term bullish for the name but hey I'll take it"
X Link 2024-07-15T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@hcapinvesting Im at [--] and Ive been buying"
X Link 2024-07-19T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@hcapinvesting How often do you get a basically infinite ROIC business with this balance sheet at a single digit multiplewith a high probability grow catalyst that could triple earnings A few times a career at most"
X Link 2024-07-19T05:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sharpeshark @EponymouslyAnon Having an all California ticket seems like a sure fire way to lose in a landslide. Though given how much Democrats seem to enjoy losing perhaps its not out of the question"
X Link 2024-07-21T22:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Use of the word is coup is stupid. But* the Dems 1) clearly knew of Bidens diminished capacity well before the debate; 2) actively impeded a proper and competitive primary and concealed Bidens decline thus facilitating his win of the primary; 3) abruptly pivoted after the debate pretending they miraculously only just discovered his cognitive issues likely because it became clear he couldnt win (again the party chose him) 4) forced Biden to resign after he was already voted to be the nominee by the people: and 5) will now proceed to run someone that has a better shot at winning but wasnt"
X Link 2024-07-22T21:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Smart activist value investor Rubric capital who are experienced in biotech control [--] board seats and own 14%. Despite being up some 500% from the launching of their successful proxy battle in [----] they remain bullish and recently purchased a $7m slug during June's ATM issuance at $3.99 ( today's price)"
X Link 2024-07-23T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"4/ Rubric are not the only smart money gobbling up shares rapidly. The aforementioned June atm on the heels of the setrusumab data raised $50m and was participated in by other pre-existing holders Rock Springs and Janus Henderson as well as a host of new sophisticated biotech investors including Perceptive Deerfield and Frazier. Janus has since taken its stake up to 5%. All of this institutional capital rushing to buy shares near ATH's should give you a sense of how cheap this still looks at $4. Altogether funds appear to own well more than 50% of the stock now"
X Link 2024-07-23T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BrianSG27 @marginofdanger @PropertyBigE DMs open"
X Link 2024-07-25T17:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BQE.V Great news regarding the KSM company-maker project. Id expect JV financing to follow shortly at which point this prospectively transformative project starts looking very much like a reality. https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/217820/Seabridge-Gold-Receives-its-KSM-Substantially-Started-Designation-from-the-BC-Government https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/217820/Seabridge-Gold-Receives-its-KSM-Substantially-Started-Designation-from-the-BC-Government"
X Link 2024-07-26T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH bought a lot more this morning. Segments firing across the board. Seaport spin will substantially improve cash generation. Buybacks likely coming soon. 1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight we would all be better off keeping front of mind. 1/ $HHH In his [----] letter Buffett highlights an investment he made in a commercial property near NYU in the early 90's. The wisdom he shares is highly apposite here and is more generally insight"
X Link 2024-07-26T15:20Z [----] followers, 19.8K engagements
"In the land of sub $100m Canadian microcaps where on the breaking of company altering news volume on the day is.2 shares"
X Link 2024-07-26T15:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You don't say The average voter doesn't have a clue what inflation means let alone what causes it"
X Link 2024-07-26T19:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HHH cost basis for Floreo is $39k/acre and they're already getting +$900k/acre with 28% gross margins and 50% expected cash margins. MPC: - EBT up 124% with a record price per acre of $1m - Market sleeping on Terravalis big time. Early innings but residential land already going for $900K/acre MPC: - EBT up 124% with a record price per acre of $1m - Market sleeping on Terravalis big time. Early innings but residential land already going for $900K/acre"
X Link 2024-07-26T20:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CPH.TO Still waiting for more clarity on the financials but it's looking like Mull has nailed it on this acquisition. While this deal completely transforms the company its probably just an appetizer of what's to come over the next couple years. Congrats to my fellow longs. $cph.to still my highest conviction bet $cph.to still my highest conviction bet"
X Link 2024-07-29T14:13Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements
"@NestBetter Nicely done. Sure you are feeling better about this M&A now haha"
X Link 2024-07-29T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CPH.TO avoid anchoring to the chart and simply run the math.it's still very cheap"
X Link 2024-07-31T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@SebKrog Completely agree. It's now a growth stock that deserves a higher multiple and you've got several call options that could really magnify the upside. Levered capital structure for this cash flow machine is also a plus for the equity"
X Link 2024-07-31T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MREO insightful thoughts on setrusumab per $RARE's Q2 update yesterday. 1/ A few comments and notes following $RARE CC related to $MREO setrusumab: The 22% BMD increase in phase [--] ORBIT will translate to phase [--] because BMD will have little change for placebo patients based on earlier trials (ASTEROID had placebo patients for around [--] months). 1/ A few comments and notes following $RARE CC related to $MREO setrusumab: The 22% BMD increase in phase [--] ORBIT will translate to phase [--] because BMD will have little change for placebo patients based on earlier trials (ASTEROID had placebo patients"
X Link 2024-08-02T19:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HHH 👀 $HHH here we go() https://t.co/WZUXq6WNUI $HHH here we go() https://t.co/WZUXq6WNUI"
X Link 2024-08-07T02:13Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements
"@ClarkinM Also right on the heels of pulling the PSUS IPO. Another path to US domiciled permanent capital Are we back to this now Agree it's very odd given he's on track to owning the vast majority of SEG too given where it's trading"
X Link 2024-08-07T02:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SMalikjo No idea but personally I'd be disappointed in anything less than $90/share. With SEG gone buybacks coming rates coming in and cash flow about to inflect I think we'd get there on our own"
X Link 2024-08-07T03:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NRP Reported $57m of FCF despite softer commodity pricing. Annualized that's a 20% FCF yield. All of that cash flow will be available for distribution once the balance sheet is debt/pref free next year. If your time horizon is longer than tomorrow pretty low brain damage play to clip a high yield with some optionality to the upside (e.g. stronger pricing growth of sequestration). That's the thesis. 1/ $NRP Everyone is fixated on $AMR after its massive print yesterday. But what about $nrp If you do a little digging through the 10ks you'll note that 1/3 of AMR's sales come from NRP properties"
X Link 2024-08-07T14:12Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements
"$TDW long-term story and underlying fundamentals are tracking and look fantastic but theres a small speed bump pushing things out a couple months. Of course the stock is dumping because who can possibly wait an extra quarter"
X Link 2024-08-07T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If someone knows a better way to earn to a 15-20% cash yield please advise"
X Link 2024-08-07T14:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CRON Think Q2 results look fantastic and that this continues to be one of the biggest dislocations between price and intrinsic value out there. The stock continues to trade near its $800m net cash balance giving you the business for free. Meanwhile that business: 1) just grew its topline +40% YoY and 10% sequentially; 2) saw gross margins improve [---] bps QoQ to 23%; 3) continues to improve its opex structure resulting in $5m improvement to EBITDA; 4) though it remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis is generating +CFFO; 5) owns a dominant brand Spinach which boasts 16% market share in high"
X Link 2024-08-08T15:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@3Plantey2 Dont think theyll be returning capital. They should be focused on strategic investments opportunistic M&A and keeping some to weather the storm as the industry moves toward rationalization. $MO didnt give them this cash only to have it paid to shareholders"
X Link 2024-08-08T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ToffCap A lot more"
X Link 2024-08-09T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BluthCapital $NRP returns will be very meaningful [--] months out"
X Link 2024-08-13T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$OGI - Revenue +25% - Gross Margins 36% up from 19% - SG&A down 22% - GAAP profit $2.8m (despite paying 1/3 of revenue in excise tax) - pro forma cash $173m - #1 position in milled flower hash and CBD gummies #3 in edibles pre-rolls and dried flower and #3 overall market share in Canada. Like $CRON this is now a growth stock carving out a dominant market share in a growing industry demonstrating vastly improved economics and yet is barely trading for more than the cash on its balance sheet. Multibagger in the making"
X Link 2024-08-13T12:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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