# ![@r2fire1 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1365456095184101376.png) @r2fire1 r2fire

r2fire posts on X about $qvcga, $qvcgp, debt, common the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1365456095184101376/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1365456095184101376/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +964%
- [--] Month [-----] +82%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1365456095184101376/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1365456095184101376/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] +81%

### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1365456095184101376/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1365456095184101376/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +27%
- [--] Month [--] +58%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1365456095184101376/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1365456095184101376/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries) 

**Social topic influence**
[$qvcga](/topic/$qvcga) #4, [$qvcgp](/topic/$qvcgp) #6, [debt](/topic/debt), [common](/topic/common), [tiktok](/topic/tiktok), [chapter 11](/topic/chapter-11) #992, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity), [bond](/topic/bond), [flow](/topic/flow), [open ai](/topic/open-ai)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@adjebitdax](/creator/undefined) [@goodhousecap](/creator/undefined) [@jacksonjo96163](/creator/undefined) [@tjdetweiler](/creator/undefined) [@commonsense6174](/creator/undefined) [@valuescreener](/creator/undefined) [@jackson_jo96163](/creator/undefined) [@andrewcoye](/creator/undefined) [@chriswmayer](/creator/undefined) [@levandovsky](/creator/undefined) [@michaeljburry](/creator/undefined) [@hunterqvc](/creator/undefined) [@donniesduick87](/creator/undefined) [@qvcga](/creator/undefined) [@nitideyshon](/creator/undefined) [@xom2themoon](/creator/undefined) [@_tj_detweiler_](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Kohl's Corporation (KSS)](/topic/$kss) [Hasbro, Inc. (HAS)](/topic/$has) [Marriott International Inc (MAR)](/topic/$mar) [MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (VAC)](/topic/$vac)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"3/8 Most retailers use "Radar" on social media. They look at lagging data to guess whats cool. QVC uses "Snipers." [------] affiliates. Zero creative risk. They only pay when a sale clears. It is the ultimate capital efficiency: outsourcing boredom to teenagers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2007905576890818638)  2026-01-04T20:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/8 This is not a risk-free trade. The leverage is real (4.2x) and the cable business is still bleeding. They are in a footrace between digital growth and analog decay. But the market has priced them for death. The data suggests they found the airlock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2007905941430354217)  2026-01-04T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/9 This created a massive Deferred Tax Liability (DTL). The bill comes due when the bonds mature in [----] and [----]. Gross Liability: $1.7B Net Cash Bill: $850M If management waits until [----] / [----] to pay this its game over. The liquidity drain causes insolvency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2008321339103367279)  2026-01-05T23:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/9 In this scenario the "Tax Bomb" isn't paid with cash. It is incinerated by the accounting gain. Bond Debt Gone. Tax Liability Gone. Cash used Minimal. The liability that looks like a tombstone is actually the fuel for a tax-free restructuring. 🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2008322008531042485)  2026-01-05T23:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"9/9 Complexity acts as a filter. It scares people away from the best opportunities. I did a full deep dive into the mechanics of the DTL and why $QVCGA might be the most misunderstood trade in the market right now. Read the full breakdown here: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-17-billion-illusionr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-17-billion-illusionr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2008322299720552915)  2026-01-05T23:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 Supply-Side. You pay Comcast "Carriage Fees" to force your signal into homes. You buy distribution. New Model: Demand-Side. You use the "Interest Graph." You earn distribution. QVC isn't paying for airtime anymore. They are surfing the algorithm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2008912926912946398)  2026-01-07T14:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/2 A plan to reduce $5B debt on $QVCGA book: [--]. The Bank Lock-Up: Secure the RCF extension to [----] via RSA [--]. The Stealth Clean-Up: Retire the $1.3B Preferreds for pennies #SpecialSituations #DistressedDebt #Turnaround #QVC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010484189838102820)  2026-01-11T22:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/2 [--]. The MidCo Rescue: take out $1.6B of LINTA debt at 10c on the dollar. [--]. The OpCo Breaker: Break the "Organized" bondholder wall . Result: Debt: $7.9B ➡ $2.9B Leverage: 4.2x ➡ 2.5x Equity: Solvent. $QVCGA #SpecialSituations #DistressedDebt #Turnaround #QVC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010484673609105718)  2026-01-11T22:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/2 + $QVCGA $5B Restructuring LINK here: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-5b-restructuring-architecturalr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-5b-restructuring-architecturalr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010498679925272958)  2026-01-11T23:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@adjebitdax @levandovsky Here is an idea of the sequence and details: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-5b-restructuring-architecturalr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-5b-restructuring-architecturalr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010499245967634449)  2026-01-11T23:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 For a distressed debt or restructuring model you want the Gross Deduction amount (the actual reduction in taxable income) not just the tax-effected DTA value. Gross DTA Tax Rate (25%) = Gross Deductions. Estimated Gross Deductions: $1.1 Billion [----] $4.4 Billion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010507589801423182)  2026-01-12T00:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 $594M net DTA plus $509M value allowance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010852103774773624)  2026-01-12T23:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"🚨 The $10 Billion Glitch: Schwab now owns 12.5% of $QVCGA. Not because they like the stock but because their algo sees $10B in sales and ignores the penny stock price. 💎🙌 https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-10-billion-glitch-why-a-robotr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-10-billion-glitch-why-a-robotr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2012298699553006075)  2026-01-16T22:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Is $QVCGA the next deep value play Permit Capital thinks so. They built a 5.7% stake and their manager put his own retirement money on the line too. 💸 Big risk massive potential upside. Feels a lot like their early bet on GameStop. 👀 Full breakdown: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-signal-in-the-noise-why-permitr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-signal-in-the-noise-why-permitr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2012631827631014114)  2026-01-17T21:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"What make the stock prices move The Fed the earnings The geopolitical tensions None. It is simply the square root of the volume according to Sato and Kanazawa. https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-hardest-lawr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-hardest-lawr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2013724742692286910)  2026-01-20T21:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/8 The QVC chart is the craziest thing in retail right now. They went from #1 on TikTok Shop ($25.5M) to getting absolutely crushed ($9.5M) in just [--] days. How did $QVCGA accidentally conquer Gen Z and why did it fall apart so fast 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023097184636522898)  2026-02-15T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I wrote a full deep dive on the "Migration of the Hearth" and the unit economics of trust. Read the full thesis here: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-and-the-art-of-not-dyingr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-and-the-art-of-not-dyingr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2007906177347383662)  2026-01-04T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/5 The Suicide Squeeze Management drains the balance sheet. Use $1.55B cash + Revolver to tender $5B of distressed debt at pennies on the dollar. Result: Leverage collapses to 2.98x. Investment Grade metrics. The bond maturity crisis is gone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2009333869124956448)  2026-01-08T18:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"How do you delete $600 million of debt without spending a dime You use the "Lumen Playbook." In [----] Lumen Technologies used old "paper losses" from to wipe out real debt tax-free. $QVCGA is sitting on the exact same setup. it's a multi-bagger. 🧵👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-tax-machine-how-lumen-technologiesr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-tax-machine-how-lumen-technologiesr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2010333524835082270)  2026-01-11T12:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Why these two preferreds are diametrically opposed: Bruker MCCP ($BRKRP) vs. $QVCGP $QVCGA https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-preferred-stock-trap-why-brukerr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-preferred-stock-trap-why-brukerr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2011794049821274621)  2026-01-15T13:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"How Marriott protects an 800% arbitrage. 📉 If you buy a timeshare from Marriott today youll pay [--] per point. On the resale market $2 That is an instant 90% depreciation. How does this model survive Check it out: #Marriott $VAC #timeshare https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-teflon-arbitrage-how-marriottr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-teflon-arbitrage-how-marriottr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2013252348580098215)  2026-01-19T14:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GoodHouseCap @adjebitdax The rumor sounds credible. The $346M liquidity is only on paper. If you take out the minimum liquidity covenant and the spring covenant the real accessible liquidity is probably $146M. Compared that to a potential [----] cash burn of $150M + restructuring cost of $50M.no good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2014009225530269999)  2026-01-21T16:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The Survival Arbitrage 1/10 Everyone looks for growth to find the next 100x. But sometimes the biggest returns come from the "walking dead" simply deciding not to die. A breakdown of the "Lazarus Trade" using the @chriswmayer framework. 🧵 #100Baggers #ValueInvesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016882074402099423)  2026-01-29T14:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/10 The Low Multiple (Distressed Edition) Healthy companies trade at 15x earnings. Distressed assets trade at 1-2x "survival cash flow." Why Because the market has priced in a 90% chance of zero. The entry price is effectively an option premium on the company's existence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016882288072552721)  2026-01-29T14:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/10 The High Reinvestment (The Twist) Here is where most investors miss the boat. In a turnaround "Reinvestment" isn't building new stores. Reinvestment = Deleveraging. Every dollar of cash flow used to retire debt at a discount is a dollar "reinvested" into equity value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016882380011618783)  2026-01-29T14:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/10 The Equity Transfer Mechanism Imagine a company with $5B debt and $100M equity. If they use cash flow to pay down $500M of debt they have transferred $500M of EV directly from the Bondholders to the Shareholders. Thats a 5x return on equity without growing revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016882780680962102)  2026-01-29T14:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/10 The "Twin Engines" on Steroids When the market realizes the company won't go bankrupt two things happen simultaneously: [--]. Cash Flow stabilizes (The Reinvestment). [--]. The Multiple expands from 2x (Distressed) to 10x (Healthy). This isn't addition. It's multiplication"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016883079931924886)  2026-01-29T14:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/10 The Catalyst: Modernization Survival buys time. Time allows for a pivot. If our "dinosaur" uses that bought time to plug into a new growth engine (like Social Commerce) the multiple doesn't just go to 10x. It goes to 15x (Tech Premium). Now you have a 100-bagger cooking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016883198957965596)  2026-01-29T14:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"9/10 The Asymmetry The risk in a "Survival Trade" is 100% (it goes to zero). The reward is 10000% (it returns to health). Most funds can't touch this volatility. That is your edge. You are getting paid massive returns for accepting the "uncertainty of survival.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016883959452274881)  2026-01-29T14:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"10/10 The lesson Don't just look for the shiny new object. Look for the Fallen Angel with a low multiple a path to deleveraging and a reason to exist. If it survives it thrives. Study the past to find the future. End. 🏁 @chriswmayer #100Baggers https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-100-bagger-hiding-in-the-graveyardr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=split https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-100-bagger-hiding-in-the-graveyardr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=split"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016884611909882115)  2026-01-29T14:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/6 🕵♂ THE CASE OF THE 100-FOLD GHOST. Dec 2022: Carvana was the victim flatlining at a closing low of $3.83a 99% drop from its peak.1 With $8.1B in debt and experts saying "no equity value left" bankruptcy seemed like a closed case.2 #Carvana #CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016985477174218815)  2026-01-29T21:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2/6 🛠 THE RADICAL SURGERY. The boardroom "detectives" launched a Three-Step Plan to stop the bleeding. They hacked $1.1B from annual costs and used the 56-site ADESA auction network to recondition cars faster and cheaper. Profitability became the new North Star. #Investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016985710935359491)  2026-01-29T21:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/6 💰 THE GREAT DEBT ESCAPE. July [--] 2023: The ultimate plot twist. Carvana struck a deal with lenders to swap $5.2B in unsecured debt for secured notes. It wiped $1.2B in principal and saved $430M/year in cash interest. The stock reacted by exploding 41% in a single morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016985930788217158)  2026-01-29T21:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/6 🚀 THE PROFITABLE SPRINT. By [----] the "mirage" looked real. Carvana delivered its first annual GAAP profit of $404M. They leveraged AI (a bot named Sebastian) to triple automated customer chats and reached record gross profits of $6429 per unit. Result S&P [---] inclusion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2016986106063966465)  2026-01-29T21:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/ The ghost of Adam Neumann is haunting San Francisco but this time hes carrying a GPU. OpenAI is locked in a $1 trillion race against time. Revenue has hit a staggering $20B run rateoutpacing early Googleyet its careening toward a $14B "Expense Wall" in [----]. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017656868584268141)  2026-01-31T17:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/6 The Deflationary Threat: DeepSeek. Efficiency is the new killer app. Chinas DeepSeek trained V3 for $5.5Mroughly 1/18th the cost of GPT-4. By offering tokens at a 20x discount theyve commoditized the intelligence OpenAI spent billions to build"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017657148327489600)  2026-01-31T17:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/6 Fraying Foundations: The Nvidia Chill. Whiff of war in the air. Reports indicate Nvidias $100B investment has stalled. Jensen Huang privately cited a "lack of discipline" in OpenAIs business and noted Nvidia has "not given OpenAI a single penny yet." #nividia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017657407103479997)  2026-01-31T17:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/6 The Ticking Clock: SoftBanks Sword of Damocles. OpenAI must finalize its B-Corp conversion by Dec [----]. If they fail lead investor SoftBank retains the right to withdraw $20B in funding. This is a high-stakes standoff with Microsoft over who owns the IP post-AGI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017657532278247913)  2026-01-31T17:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/6 The Bull Case: Silicon Sovereignty. OpenAI isn't sitting still. Project Titan: $10B custom chips with Broadcom to break the "Nvidia Tax." The Ad Engine: A projected $25B revenue stream by [----]. Is it a Silicon Ouroboros or the worlds first hectocorn Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017657922407243999)  2026-01-31T17:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1/6 The crossover event of the decade is here. @michaeljburry is validating the "Berkshire" thesis for GameStop. Ryan Cohen confirms he is hunting a "Genius or Foolish" acquisition. The war chest is $9 Billion. The question isn't if but what. I ran the screen. $HAS $ETSY $KSS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017972623368446152)  2026-02-01T14:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/6 Target #1: Hasbro ($HAS) The "Genius" Play. Market Cap: $12B. The Thesis: Its not a toy company; its a monopoly on "Gaming Culture" (Wizards of the Coast) attached to a dying toy biz. If Cohen strips the toys and keeps Magic/D&D He owns the most valuable IP in gaming. 🧙♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017973202065018988)  2026-02-01T14:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/6 Target #3: Kohl's ($KSS) The "Foolish" (but lucrative) Play. Market Cap: $2B. The Thesis: Real estate arbitrage. Cohen could buy the entire company for pocket change just to own the land (worth $4B+). Its a "cigar butt" trade: Ugly business beautiful assets. 🏬"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017973614990053404)  2026-02-01T14:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/6 The Verdict: Im betting the "Genius" move is Hasbro. The synergy with GameStops core audience is too perfect to ignore. But with $9B in cash he could theoretically buy all three. Full deep dive on the balance sheet math here: #GME #RyanCohen #Stocks https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-9-billion-question-what-michaelr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/the-9-billion-question-what-michaelr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2017974086341668964)  2026-02-01T14:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @_TJ_Detweiler_ @andrewcoye @GoodHouseCap @adjebitdax I have a different view on the growth rate. Saying we are just couple years behind China is oversimplifying things. Not sure about the whatnot model but optimistic for the QVC TikTok pivot. It can be an acquisition target for Walmart or Google. Probably not Amazon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2018016297863242180)  2026-02-01T17:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GoodHouseCap @_TJ_Detweiler_ @HunterQVC @DonniesDuick87 @jackson_jo96163 @andrewcoye @adjebitdax @QvcGa Would expect to see progress report on 2/26 though. It is about time. :) If they sucked in 4Q the 4.5x may be in danger they'd be obliged to take action. If they did normal or better in 4Q they could've been in a better position to convince banks for a deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2019065855338832150)  2026-02-04T15:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@andrewcoye @jackson_jo96163 @_TJ_Detweiler_ @GoodHouseCap @adjebitdax Right. That's the hurdle they need to clear soon. We saw many paths to a successful LME. Here is one example I detailed lately: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-license-to-kill-the-5-billionr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvc-license-to-kill-the-5-billionr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2019129867795898488)  2026-02-04T19:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@adjebitdax 1/2 You'll be disappointed to hear this: $QVCGA is not doing well on TikTok yet. There is work to do. It peaked in Nov [----] at $25M and made the top seat in TikTok shops. Then dropped to #2 in Dec at $14M. Surprise I know. I'd expect higher than Nov too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2020630069501452478)  2026-02-08T22:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@adjebitdax The only thing new here is the "accidental" leak of the negotiation of a voluntary agreement. that could be implemented as part of a Chapter [--] process. The market is treating this "rumor" as a near-death sentence. It can be potential opportunity (or trap) for investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021336191333990465)  2026-02-10T21:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 I watched $QVCGA evaporate yesterday. $11 to $3 in a heartbeat. 66% haircut. Bloomberg dropped the "Chapter 11" bomb. But if you were watching the bonds you already knew the body was cold. LINTA bonds trading at 6c. SIX. The equity market was just the last to find out. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021612174947336259)  2026-02-11T15:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/6 But wait. Lets peel the onion. 🧅 QVC has a trapdoor. CBI sits OUTSIDE the credit group as of April '25. Management has $490M in unrestricted cash across the complex. Bonds are at 20c. Do the math. $330M cash could retire $1 BILLION in face value debt. $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021612828503757268)  2026-02-11T15:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"4/6 So why haven't they done it The banks (JPM) are playing hardball. They want the $1.3B OpCo cash. Theyd rather force Ch [--] and take the keys than let Malone burn cash to save equity. The "imminent bankruptcy" leak . "Give us better terms or we pull the trigger.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021613099686486070)  2026-02-11T15:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$QVCGP rose +$5.43 (+226.79%) in a single session moving from a previous close of $2.40 to $7.83. Volume exploded to 140x the daily average. What's going on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021619950574821662)  2026-02-11T16:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"My guess on why $QVCGP exploded +226% while the common shares (and bonds) collapsed. [--]. The "Short Squeeze" & Liquidity Vacuum (Most Likely) Traders who were short "sold the rumor" and needed to "buy the news" to lock in profits and close their positions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021620722406167010)  2026-02-11T16:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2. The "Relative Value" Arb Trade (Long Pref / Short Common) Traders may be putting on a "relative value" wager on the restructuring outcome. If the Common crashes hard (which it did -66%) the profits from that leg can subsidize the "lottery ticket" long position in the P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021621153585127471)  2026-02-11T16:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 In a bankruptcy LINTA bondholders have a claim on LINTA assets (including the $160M cash the CBI equity and the QVC OpCo equity) before any value can flow up to QVC Group (HoldCo). Result: The $250M+ at the LINTA/CBI level is likely trapped by the LINTA bondholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021622601076871377)  2026-02-11T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 This leaves the $240M of cash at the HoldCo level. This is the only "safe" bucket. But even if HoldCo survives with this cash the Preferred Shares (QVCGP) sit in front of the Common Shares (QVCGA/B). P shares eat b4 the common in liquidation. $0 left to common"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021623317564948801)  2026-02-11T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 You are right that the cash exists. But for the A-Shares (Common) to see any of it they need to hurdle the LINTA insolvency the Preferred liquidation preference and the creditor lawsuits. That is why the "base case" in a Chapter [--] is zero for the common stock. $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021623695186469109)  2026-02-11T16:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 If QVC OpCo/LINTA files for Chapter [--] the creditors will almost certainly sue the HoldCo. The Argument: They will argue that the $240M cash at HoldCo was transferred up (via dividends or tax sharing agreements) at a time when the operating companies were already insolvent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021625212890972211)  2026-02-11T16:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 In almost every major restructuring (see: Caesars Neiman Marcus) the HoldCo ends up using its "safe" cash to settle these lawsuits to release the Directors/Officers from liability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021625310664700130)  2026-02-11T16:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 @GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 The "Fortress HoldCo" theory is legally possible but practically difficult. [--]. Creditors will sue to claw back the cash (Tax Sharing/Fraudulent Conveyance). [--]. Ps block the exit because their $1.2B claim dwarfs the $240M cash. In a Chapter [--] the "Absolute Priority Rule" applies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021627212630515759)  2026-02-11T16:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 This is a liquidity vacuum. $QVCGP usually trades 74k shares a day. On Feb [--] [----] MILLION. 🌊 Shorts piled in on the bankruptcy news expecting a zero. But P holders didn't panic-sell. The float dried up a whale stepped in and the shorts got squeezed into oblivion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940254060818590)  2026-02-12T13:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"5/6 If you're still holding P shares look at the Bonds trading at [--] cents. The "Absolute Priority Rule" says bonds get paid 100% before Preferreds get a penny. Unless the bond market is massively wrong the fundamental value of these shares in Chapter [--] is $0.00. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021941316079563033)  2026-02-12T13:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"6/6 The only "bull case" left Malone/Maffei control 25% of the vote and won't wipe equity easily. Plus there is $490M unrestricted cash for a rescue bond tender. But let's be clear: At $5 you are buying a lottery ticket. 🎫 $QVCGA $QVCGP Read More: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvcgp-the-133-jump-of-february-11r=ntizp&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvcgp-the-133-jump-of-february-11r=ntizp&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021942098552103346)  2026-02-12T13:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GoodHouseCap @value_screener @adjebitdax @_TJ_Detweiler_ @commonsense6174 Gents I did some soul searching last night and this morning. :) Here are some more organized thoughts about the $QVCGA crash yesterday. Let me know what you're thinking on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021611687657222385)  2026-02-11T15:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"5/6 The Malone Factor. 🤠 Greg Maffei & John Malone control the vote. They don't get wiped out unless they choose to be. If they execute the unrestricted cash buyback before earnings (Feb 26) the bank's leverage collapses. The equity is an option on this specific move. $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/r2fire1/status/2021613258205982730)  2026-02-11T15:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3. Capital Structure "Stub" Trading The market knows the bonds are impaired. But a stock trading at $2.40 is effectively an option on the company's survival. The jump to $7.80 represents a repricing of that "option." $QVCGP $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021621566220784004)  2026-02-11T16:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 I just watched one of the most absurd market anomalies of the year. On 2/10 QVC bond prices crashed to [--] cents on "bankruptcy talks." The common dropped 66%. The company looked dead. 💀 Then on 2/11 the Preferred $QVCGP ripped +133% in a single session. Why $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021939630669799616)  2026-02-12T13:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/6 This was NOT a corporate buyback. 🛑 [--]. QVC is in a quiet period. [--]. Buying back junior equity while senior bonds trade at distressed levels is a lawsuit waiting to happen. Management didn't spend $50M to save you. Market chaos just handed you a lifeline. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940665656250567)  2026-02-12T13:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"4/6 Why the divergence Common Stock: Owned by institutions. They saw the news and dumped immediately. 📉 Preferreds: Owned by retail. They held. 💎 Because the "wrong" sellers didn't show up the shorts couldn't cover. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940953221857559)  2026-02-12T13:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"6/8 Problem 3: The "Killers." While $QVCGA played nice the natives played dirty. Brands like Dr. Melaxin took over by showing gross close-ups of skin peeling off. QVC was selling product features. Competitors were selling shock value and dopamine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023098354688045219)  2026-02-15T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"8/8 I wrote the full breakdown on the numbers the "Zone Skipping" trap and how QVC might actually save itself in [----]. Read it here: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/why-qvc-sales-on-tiktok-crashed-inr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/why-qvc-sales-on-tiktok-crashed-inr=ntizp&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023099199760335227)  2026-02-15T18:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"7/8 The scary part $QVCGA needs this. Their TV audience is literally drying out and declining (cord-cutting). They have $6B in debt. TikTok is the only growth engine left. They aren't dancing on TikTok for likes. They're dancing for solvency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023098988069871767)  2026-02-15T18:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"6/8 Problem 3: The "Killers." While $QVCGA played nice the natives played dirty. Brands like Dr. Melaxin took over by showing gross close-ups of skin peeling off. QVC was selling product features. Competitors were selling shock value and dopamine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023098354688045219)  2026-02-15T18:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"5/8 Problem 2: The Sephora Call. $QVCGA slashed prices on Tarte makeup to go viral. Sephora (who sells Tarte at full price) saw it and screamed. Vendors forced QVC to kill the deals to protect their real retail partners. No discounts = no viral hits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023098120104489060)  2026-02-15T18:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"4/8 But in January the hangover hit. Problem 1: Logistics. $QVCGA uses "Zone Skipping" shipping (cheap 5-9 days). TikTok kids expect Prime speed (2 days). Result: Massive "Item Not Received" refunds. They moved volume but probably burned all the profit on returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023097900637843640)  2026-02-15T18:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/8 The Hack: "The 49-Hour Hijack." $QVCGA realized TikTok rewards uptime. So they stayed live for [--] days straight. [--] AM Live. [--] PM Live. They didn't have better products. They just drowned out the algorithm with brute force"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023097612719849601)  2026-02-15T18:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/8 Nov 2025: QVC pulls a miracle. They beat the cool kids. They sold $25M of stuff to people who usually buy viral hoodies and slime. Everyone thought they cracked the code. They didn't. They just hacked it. $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023097367113941344)  2026-02-15T18:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1/8 The QVC chart is the craziest thing in retail right now. They went from #1 on TikTok Shop ($25.5M) to getting absolutely crushed ($9.5M) in just [--] days. How did $QVCGA accidentally conquer Gen Z and why did it fall apart so fast 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023097184636522898)  2026-02-15T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 Here is the trade setup nobody is talking about. The "Baby Bonds" (QVCC/QVCD) are trading at 33c. The institutional bonds (same rank/collateral) are at 20c A 65% premium for the EXACT same bankruptcy risk. Retail is holding the bag while hedge funds are dumping. 🚨"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021612521279369498)  2026-02-11T15:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 Correction The "Baby Bonds" (QVCC/QVCD) are trading at 33c. The institutional bonds (same rank/collateral) are at 35c - 41c 2-8 points premium for the EXACT same bankruptcy risk. Retail is panicking while hedge funds are holding their cool"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022106795809157483)  2026-02-13T00:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/6 The only "bull case" left Malone/Maffei control 25% of the vote and won't wipe equity easily. Plus there is $490M unrestricted cash for a rescue bond tender. But let's be clear: At $5 you are buying a lottery ticket. 🎫 $QVCGA $QVCGP Read More: https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvcgp-the-133-jump-of-february-11r=ntizp&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/strxstk/p/qvcgp-the-133-jump-of-february-11r=ntizp&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021942098552103346)  2026-02-12T13:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"5/6 If you're still holding P shares look at the Bonds trading at [--] cents. The "Absolute Priority Rule" says bonds get paid 100% before Preferreds get a penny. Unless the bond market is massively wrong the fundamental value of these shares in Chapter [--] is $0.00. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021941316079563033)  2026-02-12T13:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"4/6 Why the divergence Common Stock: Owned by institutions. They saw the news and dumped immediately. 📉 Preferreds: Owned by retail. They held. 💎 Because the "wrong" sellers didn't show up the shorts couldn't cover. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940953221857559)  2026-02-12T13:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/6 This was NOT a corporate buyback. 🛑 [--]. QVC is in a quiet period. [--]. Buying back junior equity while senior bonds trade at distressed levels is a lawsuit waiting to happen. Management didn't spend $50M to save you. Market chaos just handed you a lifeline. $QVCGA $QVCGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940665656250567)  2026-02-12T13:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/6 This is a liquidity vacuum. $QVCGP usually trades 74k shares a day. On Feb [--] [----] MILLION. 🌊 Shorts piled in on the bankruptcy news expecting a zero. But P holders didn't panic-sell. The float dried up a whale stepped in and the shorts got squeezed into oblivion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021940254060818590)  2026-02-12T13:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1/6 I just watched one of the most absurd market anomalies of the year. On 2/10 QVC bond prices crashed to [--] cents on "bankruptcy talks." The common dropped 66%. The company looked dead. 💀 Then on 2/11 the Preferred $QVCGP ripped +133% in a single session. Why $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021939630669799616)  2026-02-12T13:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3. Capital Structure "Stub" Trading The market knows the bonds are impaired. But a stock trading at $2.40 is effectively an option on the company's survival. The jump to $7.80 represents a repricing of that "option." $QVCGP $QVCGA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021621566220784004)  2026-02-11T16:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2. The "Relative Value" Arb Trade (Long Pref / Short Common) Traders may be putting on a "relative value" wager on the restructuring outcome. If the Common crashes hard (which it did -66%) the profits from that leg can subsidize the "lottery ticket" long position in the P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021621153585127471)  2026-02-11T16:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"My guess on why $QVCGP exploded +226% while the common shares (and bonds) collapsed. [--]. The "Short Squeeze" & Liquidity Vacuum (Most Likely) Traders who were short "sold the rumor" and needed to "buy the news" to lock in profits and close their positions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021620722406167010)  2026-02-11T16:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

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