# ![@probaaron Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272.png) @probaaron aaron

aaron posts on X about polymarket, kalshi, market, prediction markets the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +62%
- [--] Month [-------] +137%
- [--] Months [---------] +26,458%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +32%
- [--] Month [---] +26%
- [--] Months [---] +3,467%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +2.70%
- [--] Month [-----] +8.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +1,021%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1893362748849078272/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893362748849078272/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  20.67% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  6.67% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  5.33% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  4% [musicians](/list/musicians)  3.33% [stocks](/list/stocks)  2% [countries](/list/countries)  1.33% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.33% [gaming](/list/gaming)  1.33% [events](/list/events)  0.67%

**Social topic influence**
[polymarket](/topic/polymarket) #379, [kalshi](/topic/kalshi) 25.33%, [market](/topic/market) 18%, [prediction markets](/topic/prediction-markets) #517, [odds](/topic/odds) #475, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 5.33%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5.33%, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.33%, [strike](/topic/strike) 4%, [bond](/topic/bond) 4%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@polymarket](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@pmtraderadam](/creator/undefined) [@andrewcourt1](/creator/undefined) [@kalshinomics](/creator/undefined) [@polymarkettrade](/creator/undefined) [@0xtakeprofits](/creator/undefined) [@judyshel](/creator/undefined) [@ishaan0x](/creator/undefined) [@bojackcapital](/creator/undefined) [@polymarketsuc](/creator/undefined) [@thestalwart](/creator/undefined) [@eventwavesio](/creator/undefined) [@xrpnoahh](/creator/undefined) [@bernardbulletin](/creator/undefined) [@geigercapital](/creator/undefined) [@eightyhi](/creator/undefined) [@zb6nyz9zzk](/creator/undefined) [@nathanmeininger](/creator/undefined) [@feararbith](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"updated seat assignments are now available ✈ onboarding window open - confirm your seat now or risk getting priced out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1969794771536449915)  2025-09-21T16:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"this is a cool market but it needs more volume and liquidity to be a real signal but let's assume current prices are fair value (which is a reach) implied odds of rates =2.5% (if appointed): 🔹 Christopher Waller: 50.0% 🕊 🔹 Rick Rieder: 45.9% 🔹 Kevin Warsh: 30.4% 🦅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2015876126791368876)  2026-01-26T19:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"the changing world order @RayDalio has had some excellent points on this reserve currency strength cheap borrowing asset bubbles social stress geopolitical tension were mid-cycle watching the stress cracks form in real time https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2017993360040923583 JUST IN: President Xi Jinping calls for the Chinese yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/thWbkQdM2m https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2017993360040923583 JUST IN: President Xi Jinping calls for the Chinese yuan to become a global reserve currency. https://t.co/thWbkQdM2m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018013944116371531)  2026-02-01T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@0xTakeProfits @eightyhi @Kalshi not sure we're quite optimized for the database your looking for but happy to discuss further this guy shared his github code as well if curious: https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018470963172749340)  2026-02-02T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"fair value for Zyn getting advertised during the Super Bowl 0.3% about [--] in [---] nicotine/tobacco brands are generally blocked from super bowl ad slots and only a clear in-broadcast branded spot counts edge case: last-minute policy exception or qualifying branded integration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019125442146628078)  2026-02-04T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Top [--] Judy Shelton holders have almost 5m total shares pumping her price for Fed Chair up to 3.5c on @Polymarket https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9 https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2018839161105416683 Top [--] Kalshi markets by Open Interest Judy Shelton at #3 🤯 https://t.co/sv2FobQkw9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019628570692206624)  2026-02-06T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@0xTakeProfits @andrewcourt1 @DollarTrade_ Dollar Trade 🤝 Small Dog Trading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019830489088188818)  2026-02-06T17:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Anthropics market hit $10.5M volume - more than the other [--] ad markets combined vague rules are the perfect trap to pump volume millions in retail incineration via a rule cuck while the house takes $125k in fees the "Mis-Anthropic" world by Domer 👇 https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/2019915361701785642 The Mis-Anthropic World. A shocking discovery but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own. In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature scientists have https://t.co/yOW8DjE9Sh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019929182386397552)  2026-02-07T00:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"we covered this and @LoganPredicts play in the Anthropic market on the latest episode of Small Dog Trading 📍 42:40 https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019929958009778294)  2026-02-07T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Google was trading at 91% for top AI model this month before Claude Opus [---] dropped - now sitting near 22% wild how fast these AI leaderboards reprice when a new model ships https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2019496582698397945 New Engineering blog: We tasked Opus [---] using agent teams to build a C compiler. Then we (mostly) walked away. Two weeks later it worked on the Linux kernel. Here's what it taught us about the future of autonomous software development. Read more: https://t.co/htX0wl4wIf https://t.co/N2e9t5Z6Rm https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2019496582698397945 New Engineering blog:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020163384864292992)  2026-02-07T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the next shutdown market after adding $300/day in liquidity incentives 🔵 $617k Polymarket 🟢 $43k Kalshi @Kalshi any chance we get liquidity or volume incentives here to help improve market quality https://x.com/probaaron/status/2017274277431595127 BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds are hovering around 85% while Kalshi has taken the lead in total trading volume 👇 Kalshi: $34m volume Polymarket: $31.5m volume https://t.co/THgbQvGUTY https://x.com/probaaron/status/2017274277431595127 BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds are hovering around 85%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183)  2026-02-07T16:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket banger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020335182658826438)  2026-02-08T03:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AlexH_Johnson but. emotional hedging helps us get ahead Alex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020336104864436702)  2026-02-08T03:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Chilearmy123 Taylor Swift destroys the ozone and your bags 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020622682916823312)  2026-02-08T22:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@zb6nyz9zzk @NathanMeininger fair point but Nate is specifically referring to a CFTC regulated exchange and I still find it unlikely that traders who lost money to insiders will be reimbursed whatsoever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020891997310263551)  2026-02-09T16:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform. daily probability spikes to 2.0% between Feb [----] then craters to just 0.13% per day through spring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493)  2026-02-09T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$206M in volume and climbing here's the live market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471via=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471via=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955236748361789)  2026-02-09T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GunjanJS @KevinTDugan @WSJmarkets good read bring on more prediction market stories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021004509804363981)  2026-02-09T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@feararbith @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I'll start with caveat that I don't know this topic very well but: 1) US seems to be threatening potential strikes if breakthroughs don't come from talks 2) one trader bought a ton of shares for today and now holds 4M in total. potential insider I don't think so personally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021016113656783217)  2026-02-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pizzintwatch upcoming Iran strike https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493 US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform. daily probability spikes to 2.0% between Feb [----] then craters to just 0.13% per day through spring https://t.co/V9uFU9IkrX https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020955233472692493 US strikes Iran by. [--] Cumulative Prob: the market is pricing a 25.5% chance of a strike by Feb [--] climbing to 55% thru June [--] Hazard Rate: risk intensity isn't uniform."  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021020033015857313)  2026-02-10T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket well played Adam but wen airdrop https://x.com/PMTraderAdam/status/2020315700074803626 I traveled all the way to Seattle to ask @Polymarket a very important question https://t.co/17QZRs922y https://x.com/PMTraderAdam/status/2020315700074803626 I traveled all the way to Seattle to ask @Polymarket a very important question https://t.co/17QZRs922y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021037324491194414)  2026-02-10T01:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"wisdom of the crowds - I'd put fair value odds of insider trading on Lady Gaga performing around 80% theres a small chance it wasnt but given how many people wouldve had advance knowledge Id bet it was https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020674857940214058 Lady Gaga performs in the halftime show with Bad Bunny as projected. Is this https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020674857940214058 Lady Gaga performs in the halftime show with Bad Bunny as projected. Is this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021042369882357901)  2026-02-10T02:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Vape to earn. in this market 💀💀 Puffpaw FDV looks incredibly sus new wallets are buying Yes shares across every strike - a blatant attempt to manipulate the expected FDV every top Yes holder is a losing trader while every top No holder is a winner https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021116841419231590 https://x.com/puffpaw/status/2021116841419231590"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021259978686742879)  2026-02-10T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"here's the Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-200m-one-day-after-launchref=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/puffpaw-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/puffpaw-fdv-above-200m-one-day-after-launchref=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021259982268723356)  2026-02-10T16:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Government Shutdown volume update: 🔵 $1.34m Polymarket 🟢 $579k Kalshi incentives work Kalshi going from 6.5% to 30% of total shutdown volume between exchanges https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183 Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the next shutdown market after adding $300/day in liquidity incentives 🔵 $617k Polymarket 🟢 $43k Kalshi @Kalshi any chance we get liquidity or volume incentives here to help improve market quality https://t.co/RvlDG2CRxK https://t.co/zt75F5Ljds https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020172005824426183 Polymarket takes a large lead in volume on the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021276466730746276)  2026-02-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ishaan0x @Polymarket @Kalshi @MovieTimeDev Kalshi's moat is regulatory not product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021367878361154021)  2026-02-10T23:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@corgil @Polymarket I did the Corgi vibe 😏 https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529 Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://t.co/UhKGju9Hfv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021368415462752329)  2026-02-10T23:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@outcomenoble @Polymarket I dig it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021418692240867466)  2026-02-11T02:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Polymarket just dropped a new dark mode and a "Hide Sports / Hide Crypto" toggle to clean up your feed trading on Kalshi @Kalshinomics offers similar features to cut the noise streamline market discovery and keep you focused on your niche"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021420424547254514)  2026-02-11T03:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@polymarketsuc @Kalshinomics I work on Kalshinomics (including Kalshi + Polymarket data)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021422342568804755)  2026-02-11T03:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ishaan0x @Polymarket @Kalshi @MovieTimeDev I'd love to see it either their own or integrated into an existing exchange"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021444551161020707)  2026-02-11T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"54 people listed in the Who will perform at the Big Game market of the $47.3M total traded 44.4% ($21M) was concentrated on Cardi B alone generating hundreds of thousands in fees with the bulk of the volume pouring in while she was "performing" live https://x.com/YahooSports/status/2021568132649816418 https://x.com/YahooSports/status/2021568132649816418"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021604560423256484)  2026-02-11T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @bl888m_eth @Polymarket @judyshel @PolymarketTrade more like 40%+ APY annualized (depending on when this gets resolved)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021632462275719625)  2026-02-11T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020856318509076781 derivative markets in prediction markets can get dangerous when its cheap to move the underlying market why buy Yes in a meme market like Jesus Christ returning well it can be profitable to just push the odds above 5% and win the trade https://t.co/s7guSyPXzS https://t.co/GpmPl2r56r https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020856318509076781 derivative markets in prediction markets can get dangerous when its cheap to move the underlying market why buy Yes in a meme market like Jesus Christ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544)  2026-02-11T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"5 minute crypto up/down markets are now live on Polymarket including Rewards and Maker Rebates how soon until these markets are 90%+ algorithmic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021771448134906139)  2026-02-12T02:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"check it: https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1770862200via=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1770862200via=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021773708709265599)  2026-02-12T02:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BoJackCapital @andrewcourt1 appreciate that even over Opus 4.6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021779827469009057)  2026-02-12T02:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@andrewcourt1 alright finally taking the plunge and paying for Claude adding to ChatGPT Cursor Gemini and Grok - sounds like a lot but experimenting with these tools has been extremely valuable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021780554333499802)  2026-02-12T02:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@dippy_eth probably at least while it's still novel crypto degens need to get their dopamine hit after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021782816191570017)  2026-02-12T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheStalwart @MichaelSelig @tracyalloway starting my day here 💙 for Odd Lots 🤝 prediction markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021943765901164551)  2026-02-12T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544 oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://t.co/7sAjf6DPwd https://t.co/ZWpVAR3cyb https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021709850623750544 oh no. well at least we get more Warsh bonds sub 95c 🤷♂ https://t.co/7sAjf6DPwd https://t.co/ZWpVAR3cyb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716)  2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"here's the derivative market: https://polymarket.com/event/judy-shelton-fed-chair-nomination-odds-5-by-fridayvia=smalldoginnovations https://polymarket.com/event/judy-shelton-fed-chair-nomination-odds-5-by-fridayvia=smalldoginnovations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986444999614560)  2026-02-12T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@derekbrown good points wrapping entertainment betting in "price discovery" language doesn't make it a hedging instrument"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021988916321235162)  2026-02-12T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"started my X a year ago. chatted with some guys at an ETHDenver happy hour about how I was interested in the data / news layer around prediction markets between trading building tools and content - it's been a fun ride. looking forward to year two 🫡 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1902763590572184054 Hey everyone Im jumping into prediction markets and building some badass tools in public Kicking things off with platforms like Polymarket Im crafting dashboards and data analytic tools. Got any special requests or killer features youd love to see Drop them below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022000749375594939)  2026-02-12T17:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket killing it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022000959732551916)  2026-02-12T17:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade changes nothing about resolution imo this just gives us cheaper shares if you still have dry powder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022002593548128642)  2026-02-12T17:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket going to hold you to it lfg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022007480700875005)  2026-02-12T17:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@notyrjo @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild see you there RJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022008376822231126)  2026-02-12T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"oh the Polymarket comment section. the most vocal parties are almost always wrong every top commenter here is mass long Judy Shelton with 15k-60k positions https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://t.co/q4CnbPZczZ https://t.co/gAl0qv9mRW https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022090093817901553)  2026-02-12T23:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@moonpay Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently sitting at 38% resolution: over 5% for a majority of minutes in any 1h period before Friday https://t.co/q4CnbPZczZ https://t.co/gAl0qv9mRW https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021986440213897716 Judy Shelton Fed Chair nomination odds approaching 5% as the Friday derivative deadline looms the separate market on whether she hits 5% by then is currently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022093216515076341)  2026-02-12T23:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@mrjuliusrose @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel the people most vocal are holding the 4c Judy Shelton shares Kevin Warsh nomination fair value is well over 99% imo despite being priced at 95%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022093992603922672)  2026-02-12T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EventWavesIO @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel lol would love to see that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022094071674876085)  2026-02-12T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@XRPNoahh @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel maybe but I'm willing to bet otherwise here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022099017963049100)  2026-02-13T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@bernardbulletin @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @judyshel wdym - what are they rigging if it's the actual nominee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022341070961680606)  2026-02-13T16:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheStalwart agree - vibe coding Geopolitical Strike Risk market data today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022454141256372593)  2026-02-13T23:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"the "truth machine" narrative is compelling but the infrastructure isn't here yet [--]. only 1.3% of political markets are "reportable" - the rest can be moved drastically with little $ [--]. sports volume is here but nobody is in the markets that matter most https://x.com/ahall_research/status/2022363448416653523 BUILDING THE TRUTH MACHINE. We built a new dataset focused on political prediction markets liquidity and resolution rules. We find: the vast majority of political contracts on prediction markets are ghost towns only 1.3% have enough liquidity to be worth reporting on."  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022531547514257631)  2026-02-14T04:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ahall_research excellent read bullish on the future of prediction markets but we have a long way to go before they hit their useful potential to society"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022531873595937221)  2026-02-14T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BillAckman @SecScottBessent what incentives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022679534479511955)  2026-02-14T14:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"the look I get when I share @kalshinomics with my normie friends 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968448339172643158)  2025-09-17T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"its wild that @MyriadMarkets has $ASTER priced at 39.7% to 2x in a month at a $2 price thats $1.59 of yes value baked in (39.7% $4) which means if it doesnt hit $4 the implied fair value is only $0.41"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970617869970047227)  2025-09-23T22:34Z [----] followers, 28.1K engagements


"so far Im in for: -Tylenol Y @ 25c -Trade/Trading Y @ 79c -Kalshi N @ 83c -Labubu N @ 83c not as much size as my Kimmel plays last night but wanted some skin in the game what you got https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/1970938436384325883 South Park tonight: Which mentions are people betting on Which markets are tight enough to trade Is this what all the money and time at college was for Easy filter at Kalshinomics https://t.co/Db9KFXbqSI https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/1970938436384325883 South Park tonight: Which mentions are people betting on Which markets are tight enough to trade Is this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970958344354660667)  2025-09-24T21:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WhiteHouse tariff revenue only trending down and now we're going to cut $2k checks from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988710774018125959)  2025-11-12T20:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"👀 👀 @MyriadMarkets can we get some more strike dates here https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2019571200012251358 ZOOMER POLYMARKET FILES TRADEMARK FOR $POLY TOKEN: SYNOPTIC https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2019571200012251358 ZOOMER POLYMARKET FILES TRADEMARK FOR $POLY TOKEN: SYNOPTIC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019613934882550048)  2026-02-06T03:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"prediction market ETFs just got filed - should we really be putting our 401k into binary election bets the idea is interesting but not sure the infrastructure is ready must read by @andrewcourt1 https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/2022728353942282721 Roundhill just filed for [--] ETFs backed by prediction market contracts. Your ETF can go to (nearly) zero. Then it reverse splits and rolls to [----]. I broke down the plumbing. https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/2022728353942282721 Roundhill just filed for [--] ETFs backed by prediction market contracts. Your ETF can go to (nearly) zero. Then it reverse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022741357518102786)  2026-02-14T18:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@andrewcourt1 on Polymarket you can split $1 into [--] YES and [--] NO share no risk changes hands no orderbook impact each side gets delivered into its respective party's ETF + earns 4% on the collateral this solves the ETF mms problem to create shares without moving the underlying market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022743421887332850)  2026-02-14T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Insurance is one of the oldest financial products around. At its core it pools risk smooths out volatility and makes sure no single event ruins someones life or balance sheet. But once you work http://x.com/i/article/1966998632772890628 http://x.com/i/article/1966998632772890628"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1967006720347304158)  2025-09-13T23:25Z [----] followers, 35.8K engagements


"@0xTyrael lol this was bound to happen sooner or later glad coinbase made the move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1984039423412203558)  2025-10-30T23:27Z [----] followers, 116.7K engagements


"time to speed run this up to $500 thanks for adding me to participate 🤝 https://x.com/bravadotrade/status/2018314207763251638s=20 Trade Challenge $25 - $500 We're funding traders with their initial $25 to see who can run it up to $500 the fastest. Drop your @Polymarket profile in the comments and we'll pick [--] people to fund for the challenge 👇 https://t.co/etbK5RKUE8 https://x.com/bravadotrade/status/2018314207763251638s=20 Trade Challenge $25 - $500 We're funding traders with their initial $25 to see who can run it up to $500 the fastest. Drop your @Polymarket profile in the comments and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2018795567674216456)  2026-02-03T21:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"130k jobs added much better than expected traders reduce bets on next Fed Rate Cut https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020878605455409439 It's Jobs Week https://t.co/HDks90rWg8 https://t.co/2VyyY5fAmd https://x.com/probaaron/status/2020878605455409439 It's Jobs Week https://t.co/HDks90rWg8 https://t.co/2VyyY5fAmd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2021580225541198164)  2026-02-11T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"working on more ad hoc analyses in labs - this is the first one built directly off geopolitical Polymarkets traders can use this to help combine positions across timeframes - sell the overpriced near-term buy the underpriced longer-dated contracts https://x.com/Kalshinomics/status/2022692009928970293 New feature dropped in Labs - Geopolitical Strike Risk Dashboard Short-term hazard rates are higher than long-term ones Is the risk actually front-loaded or is this immediacy bias from traders overweighting whatever headline hit last https://t.co/EexAijYwQf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2022692892985205230)  2026-02-14T15:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"AI models are updating at a rapid pace Polymarket odds project them to release in this order: 1) Grok [----] 2) GPT [---] 3) Claude [--] 4) Gemini [---] https://x.com/arrakis_ai/status/2022942799784747184 Next Week Will be fire : - DeepSeek V4 - Gemini [---] Pro - GPT [---] - Sonnet [--] - Mystery model. All possibly landing within days. AI timelines are accelerating fast. https://x.com/arrakis_ai/status/2022942799784747184 Next Week Will be fire : - DeepSeek V4 - Gemini [---] Pro - GPT [---] - Sonnet [--] - Mystery model. All possibly landing within days. AI timelines are accelerating fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023218808593293419)  2026-02-16T02:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mark_k @GoogleDeepMind @OpenAI many will come later we're moving fast but next week seems overly ambitious https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023218808593293419 AI models are updating at a rapid pace Polymarket odds project them to release in this order: 1) Grok [----] 2) GPT [---] 3) Claude [--] 4) Gemini [---] https://t.co/SMfGImhIUU https://t.co/1ChuA5Wjjb https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023218808593293419 AI models are updating at a rapid pace Polymarket odds project them to release in this order: 1) Grok [----] 2) GPT [---] 3) Claude [--] 4) Gemini [---] https://t.co/SMfGImhIUU https://t.co/1ChuA5Wjjb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023220498776105167)  2026-02-16T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GaetenD agree I do really love prediction markets but 🤦♂ often with the nonstop shilling of everything here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023241034759876969)  2026-02-16T03:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Kalshinomics Suggestion on where to direct incentives @Kalshi @Polymarket https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023203326062424266 https://t.co/FrHMAUeTdv https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023203326062424266 https://t.co/FrHMAUeTdv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023405212644557218)  2026-02-16T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@noahlitvin @sapiencemarkets think about who the downstream consumer of prediction market data actually is that makes it "societal good" vs gambling with better UX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023420406510821562)  2026-02-16T15:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@eightyhi thanks for the mention Adhi incentives are everything for faster/more accurate price discovery DMs open for any feature requests"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023455696759701795)  2026-02-16T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Small Dog Trading: Episode [--] with @andrewcourt1 Your Queen Is in Another Castle Can AI Beat the Prediction Market Final Boss https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019805528273166529 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019805528273166529"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2019805528273166529)  2026-02-06T16:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshinomics @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket liked/QTd one tweet about AI models this week and my feed is now copypasta of "Huge AI Week New Models dropping" too much algo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023224836055806359)  2026-02-16T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Route2FI curious - why would anyone buy $FT on the open market after TGE without the put option pre-TGE holders have full downside protection. secondary buyers get none of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/2023519122869596275)  2026-02-16T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mattyp Wow someone just ran 'npm uninstall joy' @mattyp dont be mad just cause the vibes didnt compile on your machine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1907109203598258393)  2025-04-01T16:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@austin_rief The whole 'we host both sides' act falls apart when Sacks dodges questions and rants nonstop while Ezra and Larry barely get a word in. It's performative nuance All-Ins just stacking the deck and calling it debate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1911524505899368515)  2025-04-13T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thrilled to join Polymarket Analytics (@poly_data) as a Data Storyteller Im looking forward to turning complex data into narrative-driven insights that make prediction markets more engaging and accessible. Let me know if there are any markets or topics youd like to see explored"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922321186094252097)  2025-05-13T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"thanks for the swag @Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937525624265994491)  2025-06-24T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"glad to see @Polymarket finally drop the [----] election markets today some large gaps vs. @Kalshi on nominee odds: AOC: 12% (Kalshi) / 19% (PM) LeBron: 1% / 6% JD Vance: 51% / 46% whos mispriced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943800927561085034)  2025-07-11T22:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Polymarket adding 4% interest is such a solid move literally sent this idea to Shayne last week after he asked for feedback earning yield while your cash sits makes long-term markets way more attractive. carry trades just got way better https://x.com/AICelrate/status/1943800927561085034 glad to see @Polymarket finally drop the [----] election markets today some large gaps vs. @Kalshi on nominee odds: AOC: 12% (Kalshi) / 19% (PM) LeBron: 1% / 6% JD Vance: 51% / 46% whos mispriced https://x.com/AICelrate/status/1943800927561085034 glad to see @Polymarket finally drop the [----] election markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946277109975896498)  2025-07-18T18:33Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements


"@PolyWhaleWatch interesting surely there's a better way to earn a 4% yield🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948024692742492521)  2025-07-23T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"been messing with these @Kalshi yearly high markets - simple yes/no if btc ever tags a level sample setup (with spot): long [--] btc @ 109k + short 40k 130k yes @ [--] +22k premium no touch = +22k touch 130k & sell = +3k only lose if btc nukes 87k without touching 130k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961446621222515166)  2025-08-29T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"love seeing competition heat up between polymarket kalshi and others in the prediction market space kalshi now leads with the largest open interest across all platforms (source: @poly_data the goat of polymarket analytics) follow for upcoming kalshi-specific data tools 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961466480635383865)  2025-08-29T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@mansourtarek_ host live trading nights on big events (elections fed meetings sports finals) with huge screens + odds shifting in real time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961518396761313595)  2025-08-29T19:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"favorite prediction market lists/communities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962221098101063993)  2025-08-31T18:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"inefficiencies are still all over prediction markets @BunchuBets called it and I scooped 1k shares at $0.92 - i owe you lunch https://x.com/BunchuBets/status/1963289224662430135 Some free money sitting on @Kalshi rn. Pay attention anon. https://t.co/CCB0hWWa3c https://x.com/BunchuBets/status/1963289224662430135 Some free money sitting on @Kalshi rn. Pay attention anon. https://t.co/CCB0hWWa3c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963292381643436306)  2025-09-03T17:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"seeing a lot of hype about leverage in prediction markets exciting stuff but realize: [--] YES at 3x leverage liquidates at [--] you could call the outcome right and still get liquidated mid-game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963336179996397829)  2025-09-03T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"another @Kalshi spot + options setup outlay: 110k spot + 28.8k short 150k+ (40k at 72) = 138.8k 99k: 11k + 11.2k = +0.2k (+0.1%) 150k: +40k 28.8k = +11.2k (+8%) 150k: (final spot 110k) + 11.2k risk: nuke 99k (you sell spot) then rip 150k = 39.8k (29%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963644464561561650)  2025-09-04T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"if youre building trading or just vibing with prediction markets drop a comment so we can connect share plays and grow this space prediction markets need more signal more community lets build that here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963980162858471654)  2025-09-05T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"just finished Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by @PTetlock great read. curious if there are other books/pods/content in the forecasting/prediction markets space yall recommend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965146262694756822)  2025-09-08T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"great episode of risk of ruin 'Im a weird kind of lazy Ill work crazy hard so I never have to do anything I dont feel like doing' hits home and I optimize for freedom the same way great pod adjacent to the prediction market world https://x.com/halfkelly/status/1954246802326327507 New episode is up. "Casino Schemes" Link in profile. Will go to the other services next week. https://t.co/DbhrQAXmys https://x.com/halfkelly/status/1954246802326327507 New episode is up. "Casino Schemes" Link in profile. Will go to the other services next week. https://t.co/DbhrQAXmys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966957762862362661)  2025-09-13T20:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"what a spot by @EasyEatsBodega👑 Hannah Einbinder was [----] on the books for comedy supporting actress but @Kalshi had her closer to [----] https://x.com/EasyEatsBodega/status/1967389111641112819 2-1 on my actor / actress plays. Hannah Einbender was [----] on all gambling platforms including DraftKings Prediction markets only had her at a 63% chance to win Which is closer to [----] odds. This was literally FREE money You got MUCH better odds than ANY sports / https://t.co/O69K18Vby3 https://x.com/EasyEatsBodega/status/1967389111641112819 2-1 on my actor / actress plays. Hannah Einbender was [----] on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967397505802609108)  2025-09-15T01:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital how accurate has the Atlanta Fed been its wild that prediction markets are only at 2.7% - am I missing something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967982395375902923)  2025-09-16T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"sports are just the tutorial the real game is markets on everything that shapes society https://x.com/j0hnwang/status/1967984070337364275 markets are scoreboards for reality sports is just the most obvious application zoom out and you will see the future of trading -- trade anything https://x.com/j0hnwang/status/1967984070337364275 markets are scoreboards for reality sports is just the most obvious application zoom out and you will see the future of trading -- trade anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967984892903559474)  2025-09-16T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"They're just very good friends. I say "I love you" to my best male friend as well. We rarely have sex. I wouldn't call him a "romantic partner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968056009873924189)  2025-09-16T20:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"proud to be partnered with @KalshiEco building @Kalshinomics researching trading and telling stories through data journalism showing how prediction markets cut through the noise https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1968307024799879505 Introducing @KalshiEco: a hub to support builders traders and creators pushing the frontier of prediction markets. Were backing offchain and onchain innovation with dedicated grants partnering with @Solana and @Base. Come join us in building the future of trading the future. https://t.co/maeSBMhSmP https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1968307024799879505 Introducing @KalshiEco: a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968314444376928578)  2025-09-17T14:01Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements


"man since launching @kalshinomics this week and getting some traction the inbox has been bombarded with 'boosted engagement' pitches. makes you wonder how much of X/CT is real vs fake were here to build trust and grow organically so please stop spamming us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969054245161775335)  2025-09-19T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"BREAKING: Elon and Trump back together market still giving 9% odds Elon hits unfollow before year end https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1969872242407346566 NEW: President Trump and Elon Musk were spotted sitting together and chatting during a surprise reunion at Charlie Kirks memorial. https://t.co/5asd3mTiJF https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1969872242407346566 NEW: President Trump and Elon Musk were spotted sitting together and chatting during a surprise reunion at Charlie Kirks memorial. https://t.co/5asd3mTiJF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969884208983314913)  2025-09-21T21:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"rollup tv isnt just another crypto show its the first to plug prediction markets straight into the conversation every episode will feature kalshi markets with hosts and guests using live odds to frame the discussion https://x.com/therollupco/status/1970469147382251655 Weve always been obsessed with being on the frontlines. That continues today. Were bringing @Kalshi to Rollup TV. Prediction markets are accelerating and we will be right there as it happens. Live markets tied to trending topics hot takes and big ideas. The pulse on https://t.co/NQHfcMjGoX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970488189455605922)  2025-09-23T13:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"✅4.5 out of [--] on kimmel mention markets MAGAnificent still in play 🧐 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1970649712408883240 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1970649712408883240"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970810042732658752)  2025-09-24T11:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"the prediction market arc just hit south park were in uncharted territory now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970817683097800793)  2025-09-24T11:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ultras joining @Kalshi to accelerate the onchain push build fun social layers and grow the ecosystem prediction markets arent just a meta - theyre a new asset class: decentralization of info + collective beliefs in real time https://x.com/0x_ultra/status/1970835479118692570 https://t.co/YURgDibSOL https://x.com/0x_ultra/status/1970835479118692570 https://t.co/YURgDibSOL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970844362868400543)  2025-09-24T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"first time playing mention markets and went 5/5 ✅ just wish I hadnt panic-sold a third of my MAGA 'yes' shares when the 'MAGAnificent' resolution was unclear this morning https://x.com/probaaron/status/1970810042732658752 ✅4.5 out of [--] on kimmel mention markets MAGAnificent still in play 🧐 https://t.co/rYI5RyIPay https://x.com/probaaron/status/1970810042732658752 ✅4.5 out of [--] on kimmel mention markets MAGAnificent still in play 🧐 https://t.co/rYI5RyIPay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1970865516815483073)  2025-09-24T14:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"KALSHI🤝SOUTH PARK https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1971038070310044118 We got Kalshi in South Park before GTA [--] https://t.co/659PZHoAqb https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1971038070310044118 We got Kalshi in South Park before GTA [--] https://t.co/659PZHoAqb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971042968485392737)  2025-09-25T02:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@tsmultra American for 'prediction market' won't let me in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971217892676075996)  2025-09-25T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"another top-tier mind joining the prediction market wave excited to watch Auli push the frontier w/ kalshi https://x.com/aulijk/status/1971556341090263216 https://t.co/rtQw1IdPME https://x.com/aulijk/status/1971556341090263216 https://t.co/rtQw1IdPME"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1971574067754066004)  2025-09-26T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One of my favorite ways to use @Kalshinomics apply Min OI + Min filters + Hide Sports Instantly surfaces big news shifts in past 24H: Bad Bunny +50% odds for halftime show Gov shutdown odds down Waymo likely in more cities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972286972447363239)  2025-09-28T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I predict new unique prediction market niches popping up soon - mention markets are just the starting line whats next https://x.com/aulijk/status/1974102301704151338t=ex76XtAQFjF4R8Ikq9v8Zw&s=19 mentions markets are about to explode - 100x outcomes: odds can swing from 2% to 99.9% back to 0% in seconds - real-time: trade live with short-term resolutions small capital + unique edge = profit follow @Foster #1 mention market trader on Kalshi https://t.co/XGZVXE7oEm https://x.com/aulijk/status/1974102301704151338t=ex76XtAQFjF4R8Ikq9v8Zw&s=19 mentions markets are about to explode - 100x outcomes:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974115297348190606)  2025-10-03T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1976367830233956677)  2025-10-09T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"interesting one: Louvre jewel thieves case trading near even odds for charges before December Kalshis also incentivizing liquidity and volume here so expect more action worth being careful with limit orders - this kind of market can rip on a single headline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980336884493742278)  2025-10-20T18:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"prediction markets once again front-running tech headlines OpenAI web browser odds near 90% - traders piling in ahead of a possible year-end reveal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980649767891075394)  2025-10-21T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@nursexxl @Kalshi @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @KalshiEco whoever spins up the market on your badge first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981026458395890079)  2025-10-22T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"comfy holding spot BTC covered with hit $150k hedges over @Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981041739088408921)  2025-10-22T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DegenerateNews imagine getting liquidated on a $HYPE short above $90 😬 more perp dexes = more random wicks all over the place"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982924203667140760)  2025-10-27T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@0xNairolf and there are prediction markets on the winners of the 1v1 prediction market battles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983156075202519122)  2025-10-28T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BillAckman @ZohranKMamdani curious is $2M to move the price just a few cents "a small amount of capital""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983264091096658278)  2025-10-28T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I traded Yes on Bad Bunny as Top Spotify artist this year feels like Swifties are giving away free lunch money at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985018027528921232)  2025-11-02T16:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi same. with a far smaller bag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985908671042535621)  2025-11-05T03:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CurtisSliwa ty ser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985922798934745331)  2025-11-05T04:11Z [----] followers, 24.1K engagements


"@Geiger_Capital odds way down today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986117769876881740)  2025-11-05T17:05Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements


"a good read on the illusion of safe trades or "bonds" in prediction markets winning often doesnt mean winning smart https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/1986193929134330093 Lots of talk about "bonding" prediction markets lately. The idea: buy contracts 80%+ collect steady returns like a bond. Is this just betting favorites Recent evidence points no - this may work. But when selling tails winning often doesn't mean you have edge. https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/1986193929134330093 Lots of talk about "bonding" prediction markets lately. The idea: buy contracts 80%+ collect steady returns like a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986274750117912657)  2025-11-06T03:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"new gta VI date: nov [--] [----] kalshi now at 79% for before [----] markets still leaving room for this to slip again https://x.com/RockstarGames/status/1986540361011880167 Hi everyone Grand Theft Auto VI will now release on Thursday November [--] [----]. We are sorry for adding additional time to what we realize has been a long wait but these extra months will allow us to finish the game with the level of polish you have come to expect and https://t.co/yLX9KIiDzX https://x.com/RockstarGames/status/1986540361011880167 Hi everyone Grand Theft Auto VI will now release on Thursday November [--] [----]. We"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986548154452615521)  2025-11-06T21:36Z [----] followers, 136.7K engagements


"made it onto Bankless im basically all-in on prediction markets now but the weekly rollup is what pulled me into ethereum in the first place. cheers guys https://x.com/Bankless/status/1986780682123714740 LIVE NOW -- Bull Market or Fakeout Top Haseebs Crypto Cycle Take Is the crypto bull market really over or just pausing while AI takes the spotlight On this weeks Weekly Rollup @RyanSAdams and guest co-host @hosseeb break down Bitcoins 10/10 crash hidden leverage and the https://t.co/V8xVMKWo8T https://x.com/Bankless/status/1986780682123714740 LIVE NOW -- Bull Market or Fakeout Top Haseebs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1986810196992364777)  2025-11-07T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"dont usually mess with sports but wanted a little skin in the game today on Indiana at Penn St found a tiny gap where kalshi was a couple cents cheaper than polymarket on the same side + odds felt close enough to true so i just hit it nice little payout back to politics/econ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987288175497388365)  2025-11-08T22:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QuintenFrancois why not save some time and just handout [----] BTC each"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987549249488433255)  2025-11-09T15:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"indianapolis colts over atlanta today this kalshi chart kinda says it all - insane swings absolute chaos of a game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987579398036545905)  2025-11-09T17:53Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"bullish on Thriller to enter the Top [--] on The Billboard Hot [---] Chart seems like a bond unless I'm missing something https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1987731849905414522s=46 Michael Jacksons Thriller is expected to return to the top [--] of the Billboard Hot [---] following Halloween. It will mark the songs first time in the top [--] since [----]. 3K sales 14M streams 9M airplay https://t.co/bKNM38kqSm https://x.com/talkofthecharts/status/1987731849905414522s=46 Michael Jacksons Thriller is expected to return to the top [--] of the Billboard Hot [---] following Halloween. It will mark the songs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987734212104052846)  2025-11-10T04:09Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements


"@Polymarket does she trade stocks too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988007303866708026)  2025-11-10T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"sports are now my top category thanks to MJ 🥳 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206 [--] day bond at 8% return https://t.co/l5nJMSoRx8 https://t.co/UAap1xM723 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206 [--] day bond at 8% return https://t.co/l5nJMSoRx8 https://t.co/UAap1xM723"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988092968046342183)  2025-11-11T03:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Kalshi $72.7M volume in this market alone (+ plenty of other shutdown related markets) well done predictoors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988811883873464462)  2025-11-13T03:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CalltoActivism looking like the Houses gonna pass the bill to release the files https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988751105086615943 the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi liquidity rewards pool active through Nov [--] https://t.co/Kifny8mUBt https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988751105086615943 the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988823525067796841)  2025-11-13T04:17Z [----] followers, 158.7K engagements


"didn't see this one coming 🔥 congrats @kalshi 🤝 @PrizePicks https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1989317639374565621t=CyleTjFpNZ6Y7BpC_UDMTQ&s=19 Trade prediction markets on @PrizePicks Sports. Movies. Music. Politics. Economics. And so much more are now live. All event contracts listed on PrizePicks are Kalshi markets. https://t.co/azleTUIFit https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1989317639374565621t=CyleTjFpNZ6Y7BpC_UDMTQ&s=19 Trade prediction markets on @PrizePicks Sports. Movies. Music. Politics. Economics. And so much more are now live. All event contracts listed on PrizePicks are Kalshi markets."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989318957954715780)  2025-11-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"hit 2k follows today appreciate everyone whos been following the prediction market grind follow along for more data edge chaos coming soon https://x.com/probaaron/status/1976367830233956677 my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope https://t.co/247ePx4q65 https://x.com/probaaron/status/1976367830233956677 my quant calls it a dead cat bounce I call it hope https://t.co/247ePx4q65"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989339715200602204)  2025-11-14T14:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"this just keeps drifting into straight-up bond territory Gemini [---] incoming https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1989481514393121239 🤔🤔 https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1989481514393121239 🤔🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1989708178494484624)  2025-11-15T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"thrilled to announce the launch of Kalshinomics a data tool I've been building with my brother @andrewcourt1 it's the tool we wanted as traders: easy to use simple fast and scannable with curated markets feedback + feature requests always welcome DM us or @Kalshinomics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1968321510638301266)  2025-09-17T14:29Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements


"thanks for 1k 🙏 many of you will be relieved to hear that my rampant prediction market reply-guy bullposting era is now slightly moderated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1968371218400297315)  2025-09-17T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I traded yes on Zohran Mamdani at [--] Kalshi had the better price vs Polymarket by [--] at the time so is this basically a discount bond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1983355054523605467)  2025-10-29T02:07Z [----] followers, 48.9K engagements


"how much does it cost to move the nyc mayoral market if you tried to push cuomos odds higher to 20% polymarket buy cuomo yes to [--] $78k buy mamdani no $567k kalshi buy cuomo yes $381k buy mamdani no $1.19m total: about $2.22m in combined order book depth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1985464262136074539)  2025-11-03T21:49Z [----] followers, 148.3K engagements


"@Geiger_Capital this is [----] so itll fall under predictions on kalshi + polymarket ✅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987543447281320089)  2025-11-09T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What U.S. airline will be the first to sell Zyn on their flights + earn rewards as a liquidity provider on Kalshi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987958470126301310)  2025-11-10T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1 day bond at 8% return https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1987961276979384608 Thriller by Michael Jackson returns to the top [--] on the Hot [---] at #10 this week. It previously peaked at #4. https://t.co/g8Jr16lGSg https://x.com/PopCrave/status/1987961276979384608 Thriller by Michael Jackson returns to the top [--] on the Hot [---] at #10 this week. It previously peaked at #4. https://t.co/g8Jr16lGSg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1987962910958854206)  2025-11-10T19:17Z [----] followers, 22.4K engagements


"Intro Prediction markets arent just for traders. A full ecosystem is forming around them - trading building content and connections. Each path has its own edge and the overlap between them is http://x.com/i/article/1988662675497447426 http://x.com/i/article/1988662675497447426"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988667044364185609)  2025-11-12T17:55Z [----] followers, 16.1K engagements


"the government is opening back up - and now theyre getting to the real questions 📈 71% chance the House passes a bill to release the Epstein files this year 💰 $500 Kalshi liquidity rewards pool active through Nov 30"  
[X Link](https://x.com/probaaron/status/1988751105086615943)  2025-11-12T23:29Z [----] followers, 225.3K engagements

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