#  @pennystockabe abe abe posts on X about $nvo, $hims, $lly, novo the most. They currently have [--] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2269878362/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -76% - [--] Month [------] +25,084% - [--] Months [------] +18,557% - [--] Year [------] -1.90% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2269878362/posts_active)  ### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2269878362/followers)  - [--] Week [--] -4.20% - [--] Month [--] +1.50% - [--] Months [--] +6.20% - [--] Year [--] +97% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2269878362/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 35% [stocks](/list/stocks) 31% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 5% [countries](/list/countries) 3% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 2% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 1% **Social topic influence** [$nvo](/topic/$nvo) #40, [$hims](/topic/$hims) #106, [$lly](/topic/$lly) #24, [novo](/topic/novo) #2689, [yield curve](/topic/yield-curve) 9%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 7%, [spx](/topic/spx) 4%, [eli lilly](/topic/eli-lilly) #32, [money](/topic/money) 4%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 3% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@joosteninvestor](/creator/undefined) [@sethcl](/creator/undefined) [@peterberezinbca](/creator/undefined) [@intheyield](/creator/undefined) [@tacticzh](/creator/undefined) [@mrderivatives](/creator/undefined) [@investseekers](/creator/undefined) [@jimwpaulsen](/creator/undefined) [@macroalf](/creator/undefined) [@allanlichtman](/creator/undefined) [@michaelkantro](/creator/undefined) [@burrytracker](/creator/undefined) [@augurinfinity](/creator/undefined) [@hhsogc](/creator/undefined) [@fibonaccita](/creator/undefined) [@hatedmoats](/creator/undefined) [@anderssb](/creator/undefined) [@europeandgi](/creator/undefined) [@workvivo](/creator/undefined) [@meta](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Pfizer, Inc. (PFE)](/topic/$pfe) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Viking Therapeutics, Inc (VKTX)](/topic/$vktx) [Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)](/topic/$mrk) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@TacticzH Novo is a national treasure and a point of pride in Denmark. They will figure it out. The pill will be successfull and the [--] month head start is huge. They will run Wegovy pill commercials in the superbowl they will capture the market/mental market share before then" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2018815732277195142) 2026-02-03T22:35Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@TacticzH $50 price difference between an unsafe/uneffective copy cat vs the real official drug. Only silver lining if its allowed to stand" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019521622106075196) 2026-02-05T21:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "BREAKING: FDA to Restrict Copycat Weight Loss Drugs Sold by Pharma Rivals $HIMS plunges after hours $NVO higher after hours https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/fda-to-restrict-copycat-weight-loss-drugs-sold-by-pharma-rivals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/fda-to-restrict-copycat-weight-loss-drugs-sold-by-pharma-rivals" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019898844020957249) 2026-02-06T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "BREAKING: Based on a review of the applicable facts earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health Inc. (Hims) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the FFDAC Act and applicable Title [--] provisions $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019901847822028860) 2026-02-06T22:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "After a shortage ends compounding pharmacies are still allowed to make a compounded version of a drug if its legitimately customized for a specific patients clinical need *that an FDA-approved product cannot meet.* FDA regulatory framework sections 503A/503B $NVO $HIMS $LLY" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020146268396204356) 2026-02-07T14:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Fibonacci_TA Fib you are funny. Sentiment didnt do any of those. Those buisnesses had fundamental changes. Google had to fight for its survival. Novo started getting eat by competition & illegal compounders. etc. Sentiment can be low or high and the trend continuing. The buis. changed" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020153704884625680) 2026-02-07T15:12Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@HatedMoats $HIMS Opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. The decision to copy cat a drug just released after billions of research safety/efficcy data and altered it because they don't own the release mechanism technology creating a new drug crossed a line of no return $NVO $LLY $PFE" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020238775016989069) 2026-02-07T20:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS Opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. The decision to copy cat a drug just released after billions of research showing safety & efficacy then altered it because they don't own the absorption technology creating a new drug crossed a line of no return $NVO $LLY $SPX" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020240358249242964) 2026-02-07T20:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Even Generic Pharma companies have to (1) File an intent application w/ the FDA to produce (2) Show bioequiv. to branded drug (3) Show Safety & Efficacy data (5) Have an FDA certified facility to produce $HIMS opened a Pandora box that cannot be unclosed withFDA/DOJ $NVO $SPX" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020243114448093610) 2026-02-07T21:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Mr_Derivatives $HIM $NVO To late pandora's box has been opened. They crossed a major red line when they started altering the drug" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020253997605810366) 2026-02-07T21:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "GLP1's are trending on Twitter. So. :-) $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020556020477477279) 2026-02-08T17:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@anders_sb_ Sarcasim Tom Brady was back QB at some point. Amazon was just a book store Novo distrupted a larger insulin player at some point. The guy selling hot dogs from the stand outside of McDonalds is can steal all their customers. Vanity cometh before the fall" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020600151002550530) 2026-02-08T20:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Hims opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. So dumb. Lawsuit may award NVO damages for back pay since FDA warnings to stop/when shortage ended. Like they had [--] sensibility to read the room and recogonize they went too far with pill intention. $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2020929994395115558) 2026-02-09T18:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@investseekers Wegovy/Ozempic/Wegovy/Zepbound The market has a lot of brands. Better to be a generic competing for sales of the same brand drug than for a new brand fighting these [--] brands. The prices now are so low hard for new entrants. Ozempic isnt a $1000 anymore. $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2021340317392437575) 2026-02-10T21:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@European_DGI I am all about the SNACK's man. $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2021341941192065133) 2026-02-10T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@investseekers My sense is people who are doing injections stay with what they are doing. The pill is drawing new customers who prefer the simplicity of the pill. Once people develop a habit they stick with it. Once you you get customers on your drug they stay on your drug. [--] month lead" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2021605100725092851) 2026-02-11T15:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Novo is selling two weightloss drugs. Eli Lilly is selling two weightloss drugs. Lilly trades at [--] PE Novo is trading at 14x PE Novo was the first entrant in the field and began losing share because of cheaper competitors. Now Novo is the cheapest at $149. $NVO $LLY" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2021804825927917752) 2026-02-12T04:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Mr_Derivatives $UNH Great company" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2022063254986789019) 2026-02-12T21:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Novo dropped over 66% because (1) They were expensive and now their cheap ($149) (2) They had supply issues but now thats resolved (3) Copy cats ( $HIMS) were allowed and now thats being closed. $NVO is 14x PE (10x PE ex. bvps) $LLY 45x PE Patents hold in US/EU until 2032" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2022070956211245058) 2026-02-12T22:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Score is 28-3 and it's the 2nd half. (1) Wegovy pill now cheapest @$149/month (2) Supply chain issues resolved. (3) Compounders getting shutdown (4) [--] month lead + early mental brand share. (5) Most efficacious pill Sorry $LLY losing team made adjustements. $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023101950800064976) 2026-02-15T18:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "RT @SethCL: 100% of the time 💯 Since [----] buying $SPX on Midterm-Election Day (MTE) generated a median return of +15.2% through June [--] o" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023103237990285762) 2026-02-15T18:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "60 min interview of Novo Nord's HQ was all it took for me. Amazing Danish scientist. Amazing work culture and environment for science. 84% satisifaction rating on Glassdoor by employees. Novo is Denmarks national treasure w/ intense focus on science. $NVO $LLY $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022723207506387323) 2026-02-14T17:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "RT @SethCL: NYSE High-Low Logic Index crossed above [----] threshold whereby past readings of extremely bifurcated mkt found corrections w/i" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023098592257601852) 2026-02-15T18:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "+SB commercials. Early mental brand share. Adhesive Strip=BandAid Ride share = Ube Photocopy=Xerox GLP1 pill = Wegovy Pill" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023102511410757822) 2026-02-15T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "RT @SethCL: One of these charts is not like the other Nasdaq Summation Index. trending opposite of all other indices/cap-tiers This not" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023103700684955827) 2026-02-15T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Look at the *future* (not the past) (1) Wegovy pill has [--] month lead and mental brand share. (2) Wegovy pill at $149. Lowest price already for GLP1. (3) Semag. has other health benefits (heart liver etc.) (4)** Novo first page on TrumpRx site** (5) Most efficacious $NVO $LLY" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2022683979154137450) 2026-02-14T14:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The Guardian says the obesity market will be $200 billion by [----]. But in a market with: Wegovy/Ozempic/Zepbound/Mounjaro It's better to be a generic than a new brand competing with these [--] large brands and must be pill form. Wegovy pill $149. $VKTX $LLY $NVO $MRK $PFE $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2023174065620455885) 2026-02-15T23:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL Hey Seth are average these returns for those trading days Aren't the returns in the highlighted box lower than the first half of April" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1779185420934258743) 2024-04-13T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL And by the way I agree with your bullish philosophy. It pays more to be long in the market than to be short. And it pays to be long when some indicators (yield curve eg)are saying the economy is going into a recession. You have to whistle past the graveyard as an investor" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1779193439868825817) 2024-04-13T17:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@SethCL Feels oversold. The S&P not reflective of most stocks. Lots of stocks down hitting new [--] week lows. The market is the RUT not the SPX. A few stocks are lifting the SPX" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1779498375575925163) 2024-04-14T13:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@intheyield Todays slowing employment report and the uptick in unemployment is making me more convinced we are headed for a labor market recession. I see the weakness in day to day living consumers are cutting back eschewing higher prices. Samhs rule and yield curve inversion look right" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1786399623117951449) 2024-05-03T14:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA I came to the same conclusion yesterday. Based on the recent unemployment rate number and the jobs numbers. Not sure what the market was rallying for yeserday. There was nothing exciting about that labor report. I genuinely thought that all the liquidity in the system would" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1786805008496734666) 2024-05-04T17:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@intheyield Believe it or not they were actually doing it before they stated it. Go to fred and type TREAST. The decline was happening for treasuries even before. Treastury holdings is the variable I found that is more important than the iverall balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790122446718226836) 2024-05-13T20:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@workvivo @Meta That's great maybe Zoom can offer Docs Slides and Sheets to compete against Microsoft Office. Zoom charges more for it's subscription than MS [---] but doesn't offer those core productivity solutions" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790484641851249115) 2024-05-14T20:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL It takes about a [---] - [--] yrs for the effect of rate hickes to hit the economy. For debt to roll over for firms at higher rates for ARMS to reset for households. This is why I have argued what causes recession is less to do with yield curve inversions but rather higher rates" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790555721677041763) 2024-05-15T01:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL A similar graph can be drawn for the interest expense for the US govt. It lags current rates by about the [---] - [--] yrs. But you rightfully pointed out in your graph most of the economy is interest rate hedged. Most households and business have fixed rate debt" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790557100977918241) 2024-05-15T01:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Is a Recession coming Some indicators say yes others say no. M1 money supply still says there is a lot of money in the system. It's very possible the yield curve ca stay inverted for a very very long time" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790828318742245379) 2024-05-15T19:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA I wouldn't use the recent post pandemic period to estimate the phillips curve. But the P.C. is very one dimensional and is really a demand side view of inflation and unemployment. Supply side factors can lower both unemployment and inflation concurrently" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790916390951571889) 2024-05-16T01:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL Partly what explains this graph is the weakness in the avg firm vs the big caps. It's not just for discretionary big caps lead by 5-7 stocks in the SPX are carrying the whole index higher. Large firms are crushing medium to small size firms. Oligopolies are running theeconomy" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1791087439727006205) 2024-05-16T12:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Is a recession looming The widely known yield curve says yes. But how accurate has the widely known indicator been Well it turns out yield curve inversions were the norm not the exception prior the Great Depression. And yield curves can stay inverted for a very long time" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1791089407455338742) 2024-05-16T12:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SethCL @jimwpaulsen I agree. Historically most of the returns come from a few stocks -- the benefits of indexing and diversification. I think EW/CW performance can also be explained by poltical cycle. Republicans tend to be better for small businesses and so Russell outperforms" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1791454477314150876) 2024-05-17T13:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Fed Funds shifted out [--] months fwd vs the VIX. I am bullish but I have to look at both sides of things. Will the relationship still hold in the future (if you believe there is one) Unsure" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1791494056985461140) 2024-05-17T15:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@McClellanOsc It's supply & demand. The demand curve is shifting to the left (less buyers) as prices rise. Who wants to buy stocks at high prices" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1792880762569576645) 2024-05-21T11:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Money Supply growth indicating an acceleration in CPI inflation later this year. Money supply used to have a much stronger relationship with inflation but due to international trade (lower goods from overseas) and the excess reserve payments by the Fed to banks it's weakened" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1793274330312265869) 2024-05-22T13:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Barchart The Russell [----] is the stock market not the S&P [---] which is driven higher by [--] stocks. Most companies aren't doing as great" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1793827553184252113) 2024-05-24T02:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@intheyield To understand lead time the real question at heart is why does the yield curve even predict recessions The yield curve (L-S spread) to me is not the only driving factor here but rather the high level of the Short rate (Fed Funds) causing the recession (contd)" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1794716071238488136) 2024-05-26T13:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@GameofTrades_ I think we are expwriencing all the symptoms of a recession but absent of labor market contraction and stock market pull back on the big caps. Russel looks like its been in a recession for a while now. Investors may have recession smoothed the widely known yield curve indicator" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1794763734964953387) 2024-05-26T16:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MacroAlf Your wrong. Bank reserves are not liquidity but a measure of it. Most of the Bank reserves are sitting on Fed's bal. sheet because the banks are collecting interest rate. Someone using their deposits on daily life is NOT liquidity bc. its NOT availiable capital for deploymnt" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1794772456139375016) 2024-05-26T16:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MacroAlf Liquidity is hard to measure but the precise definition for *Market liquidity* is: "The availiable cash capital **willing and able** to be deployed in a particular market by an investor" the other liquidity is just broad economic liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1794773119594598456) 2024-05-26T16:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Zoom When will Zoom docs be released Microsoft and Google have word doc editors amd abilitiy to make presentation slides" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1800946956698579154) 2024-06-12T17:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @Vetta_Fi If it weren't for the AI innovation pushing up 5-7 stocks there wouldn't be a rally in the large cap indices. Russell indicating a recessionary period for a while" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1804548971211165755) 2024-06-22T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA Probably oddest recession I have ever seen. I have made this argument to many. We are recession smoothing. Yield curve is widely followed. Investors/Busi's see the signal and they cut back spending/investment in effect "smoothing" the recession. No one time crash but rolling" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1807073267829620952) 2024-06-29T15:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@joosteninvestor @markets In otherwords the govt. is financing this overperformance in US equities. Just look at our deficit It will have to be paid back. The EU pulls in enough tax receipts for spending but has a lower performing stock market" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1813645205742166101) 2024-07-17T18:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BobEUnlimited Very possible no off-cliff nose dive in RUT when the next recession starts. Yield curve signal observed and recession smoothed/priced in. We may rally into the next recession happened before in the late 60's" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1816210632414314508) 2024-07-24T20:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BBQFinanceJake @joosteninvestor @JeffWeniger The discrepancy in value between large caps and small caps. I love NVDIA I use their GPU's for model estimation but they are not worth 3T. They have a lot of competition coming after their lead they simply design chips but had a lead competitors foolishly gave them" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1817188620094017907) 2024-07-27T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ablebonus @joosteninvestor @LanceRoberts It was money sitting in money market mutual funds (MM - Stock market) and money rotating from smaller equities to mega caps" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1819684148186862059) 2024-08-03T10:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA Any other time period seeing how the indicators are going it's an easy call. But this time period is very different. We paid fwd in govt. spending and money supply injections for several recessions" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1819718678776021257) 2024-08-03T12:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@intheyield Out of the last [--] times the Fed rate cut for the first time after the Fed cut rates [--] were right into a recessions [--] were non-recessionary" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1821387282248564943) 2024-08-08T03:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor Great chart This chart does not indicate a recession. On my profile I posted a similar graph but for households showing fixed vs arm % of loans. Most home borrowers are still paying low interest payments comparison to [----] when rates were high. Interest insensitive economy" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1821999066894553294) 2024-08-09T19:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor If you buy the story that we're not in a recession then your graph is a reminder that even though the Fed raised rate so what The economy is still interest rate immune and this bull market has more to go" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1822000496120340851) 2024-08-09T20:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA [----] was another exception. Rates cuts but no recession. Claudia's rule is probably the best one out there -- Claudia Rule. The Vix doesn't just shoot up like that and things just go to normal. Even when the economy is in a recession the marketsendsfalse signals. @Claudia_Sahm" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1823802382473683358) 2024-08-14T19:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@intheyield But something to note ECB balance sheet is already at trend. China's balance sheet as well" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1824143123431522404) 2024-08-15T17:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA Peter the issue is CRE is experiencing it's own idiosyncratic headwinds. I am not sure this is the "slam your hand on the table" recession indicator it's been trending up for a while you know this already. I am not saying anything you already don't know. (cont'd)" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1827343300711334381) 2024-08-24T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PeterBerezinBCA But as a general note The markets are designed to give you bad signals as it heads higher. And good signals on the way down. But the following are 1) VIX hitting [--] in one single day 2) Sahms rule got triggered UR heading higher 3) YC uninverting 4) Slow down in fiscal flows" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1827344300608196645) 2024-08-24T13:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BoeingSpace NASA was wrong. Boeing was right" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1832309843748598159) 2024-09-07T06:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@joehansenxx @NASA @Space_Station Yes we should let Elon and the chinese govt. control aerospace" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1832479520428814428) 2024-09-07T18:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@AllanLichtman Dr. Lichtman I am not sure how you don't consider the never ending and expanding wars in Ukraine and Gaza/Lebanon and ME not triggering the 'Foreign Failure:' and 'Foreign Success:' keys. We could be in a recession right now 6th key right there" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1853156439541637407) 2024-11-03T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AllanLichtman Your keys are predicting the opposite outcome 1) We might be in a recession that will be called months later. 2) Biden administration had no international success' look at all the wars (Ukraine/Gaza/Lebanon) US is involved in. 3) Biden/Harris handling of the borderwasascandal" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1853160177845067820) 2024-11-03T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @callieabost Its possible we had a recession (a big slow down) without labor market recession. We have to be open we did the non-labor market recession and now its over with" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1861939256513515613) 2024-11-28T01:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @MichaelKantro Here is an important indicator starting to turn up Maybe we survive this deep sowdown with a labor market recession due to the high liquidiuity and strong demographic tail winds (millenials hitting productivity years) https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1863642788815904777t=6BAm2WZyUGbAqIUKR8QsPA&s=19 ISM New Orders (LEADING Indicator) moves above [--] which looks more like recovery than #recession. https://t.co/k5hpSPYqW3 https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1863642788815904777t=6BAm2WZyUGbAqIUKR8QsPA&s=19 ISM New Orders (LEADING Indicator) moves above [--] which looks" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1864074486091313367) 2024-12-03T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @MichaelKantro Meant to say without* a labor market recession" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1864074764802830839) 2024-12-03T22:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@EPBResearch By the time the payroll indicators turn recessionary it will have already been too late. 90% of the time they lag the market. Sometimes the market rallies while unemployment is increasing (happened before)" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1867129364179280111) 2024-12-12T08:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Long Term Treasuries are the most heavily shorted in history. Leveraged (Hedge) Funds (blue line) are the most short ever. Their track record is not that good. For the Ultra [--] yr contract everyone is short except Asset Managers. The fear of reigniting inflation main cause" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1867688886714900961) 2024-12-13T21:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Copper/Gold ratio (or any industrial metal/Gold ratio) is trending lower while rates remain high" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1867713296586969525) 2024-12-13T23:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@burrytracker Hi Mike. There is a graph on my channel that I posted that shows the CFTC's COT report position for US Treasuries. Take a look at the graph but to summarize it H.Funds are the most short Treasuries ever. You Gundlach Drunkenmiller Tudor Jones etc. are all riding together" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1870371251878756468) 2024-12-21T07:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Being short US Treasuries *is* the consensus trade now of [----]. Please if your bearish on US Treasuries (right as the yield curve is un-inverting) your *not* a contrarian your view is the consensus. Mike Burry thinks he is being a contrarian right now @burrytracker" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1870882479437164868) 2024-12-22T17:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@sengfoo88 Bird hit the plane. The tower warned of bird strike. Passanger texted about a bird hitting the plane before the crash. Nothing to do with Boeing" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1873280836327612927) 2024-12-29T08:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@intheyield In my humble opinion you have the graph not so right. It shouldnt be from inversion but from "uninversion". The universion carries the info" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1877829103392330195) 2025-01-10T21:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor Awesome graph My long term bond portfolio is not doing well sadly. hoping for better days where rates head lower. That graph you showed on the yield curve continuing to uninvert was interesting" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1922438698634711493) 2025-05-13T23:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @jimwpaulsen Not to mention the yield curve is at the same spot that most Recessions begin. Is the market pulling everybody in right before for the big crash No idea. Short rates *should* be lower as in most recessions. Proof just look at the ECB's policy rate. Should be your next graph" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1931407873998770669) 2025-06-07T17:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @AugurInfinity Here is my interesting take. Jay Powell admitted had ir not been for tariffs there would have been cuts to fedfunds. If we take the Eurozone policy path as the alternate univ. of no tariffs the yield curve wouldve been solidly uninverted. Typical of a recession + mkt rebound" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1951672561323888731) 2025-08-02T15:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @AugurInfinity So its very possible the April tariff drop was the big recession drop and now the yield curve has un-inverted and a new economic cycle has started. The economy feels bad now because we are in a recession (but no labor mkt recesion) and mkt keeps ripping higher from here" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1951673750329479614) 2025-08-02T15:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joosteninvestor @opinion Hard to make that argument when every central bank is cutting rates amd has been for a year and the economy feels like in a recession non-labor mkt recession" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1957135575388926249) 2025-08-17T17:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "For anyone interested in the market cycles. American Eagle and clothing retailers look they are poised to rally. The black line is Abrecrombie" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1958259832198426780) 2025-08-20T20:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Love this graph. It shows how competition affects all firms (not just drug companies). The more competitors the more perfect competition you have driving economic profits to [--]. Notice how it doesn't take that many competitors" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/1790756904462921971) 2024-05-15T14:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@WealthyReadings Novo is Denmarks largest (only big company). They attract top talent across the country. Denmark full of high quality people smart educated industrious. Novo is a national pride for them. Eli Lilly is just another pharma company here in the US in Denmark Novo is everything" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2018921064521146458) 2026-02-04T05:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TacticzH Stocks down 65%+ are never quick turnarounds. I knew this going in. Competition is everything and lilly is a strong U.S. competitors. GLP1 more important to Novo than Lilly Lilly has a broader portfolio. New CEO + Danish culture + LOE globally = conservative guidance" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019074882873516263) 2026-02-04T15:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@zerohedge I am not sure if this is legal. GLP1's were removed off the FDA shortage list so compounding is now illegal" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019432173238120694) 2026-02-05T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TacticzH It's illegal. Whats stopping any compound pharmacy from copying any other drug There is no FDA shortage anymore for GLP1. If Hims is allowed to move with this the fabric of patent protection would collapse. Novo/Lilly already cut a deal with the president for TrumpRx" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019437496145523016) 2026-02-05T15:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO $HIM $LLY Novo planning to take legal action against HIMS copycast generic. What other on patent drugs will HIMS try to steal next Eli Lilly will not sit idle by on this with the FDA. This impacts them too. https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=916489 https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=916489" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019458151657979948) 2026-02-05T17:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO $HIMS $LLY In April [----] a federal judge in Texas denied a request by compounding groups to keep making copies of semaglutide effectively upholding the FDA's decision to end the shortage and clearing the path for enforcement against compounders" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019475322949812663) 2026-02-05T18:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO $HIMS $LLY Novo Nordisk has already obtainedover [--] permanent injunctionsagainst various clinics and pharmacies for selling unapproved semaglutide products. Hims stock is now negative because their investors know this is a stunt. Semaglitude patents have also beenupheld" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019476131590603009) 2026-02-05T18:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MontanaMatos Novo Nordisk has already obtainedover [--] permanent injunctionsagainst various clinics and pharmacies for selling unapproved semaglutide products" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019489593284763824) 2026-02-05T19:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@qcapital2020 The good thing is the price difference between what Novo is selling the pill and HIMS is $50 whereas before it was much larger. No one would the risk of a bad/uneffective/potentially unsafe drug for a $50 difference. Where is the FDA" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019516537569440250) 2026-02-05T21:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TacticzH Hims really benefited when Ozempic/Wegovy was $1000. Same for Eli Lilly who undercut. Lots of fat on the pig. Well now its $150 w/o insurance. Hims dropped today because either (1) Legally their drug wouldnt be allowed by regulators/courts (2) Not much fat to fry like before" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019540500035039564) 2026-02-05T22:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO $HIMS $LLY Hims shares plunge after FDA chief threatens action on 'illegal copycat drugs' Feb [--] (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will take swift action against companies that mass-market "illegal copycat drugs" .(contd) https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/fda-take-action-companies-marketing-illegal-copycat-drugs-fda-chief-says-2026-02-05/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/fda-take-action-companies-marketing-illegal-copycat-drugs-fda-chief-says-2026-02-05/" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019596436720304388) 2026-02-06T02:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@NFTLunatic I am sorry but when did making drugs illegally became an investable buisness on the public markets. Novo spends billions developing a drug then HIMS w/o patents/bioequivalnce studies/efficacy/safety data makes its own on a whim $HIMS crossed a major red line of illegality today" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019624493593829444) 2026-02-06T04:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "HIMS entire buisness model is counterfitting drugs. A buisness model best done under the regulatory radar. Then HIMS pirates Novo's drug which they spent billions researching then the FDA gives it a faceslap. What next Am I allowed to make drugs in my garage $NVO $HIMS $LLY" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019627996752285811) 2026-02-06T04:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO Forever cursed. Hate to say it" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019818525809078728) 2026-02-06T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "HIMS took a bite they couldn't chew. The DOJ is now investigating their buisness. What next Am I allow to copy and make Pfizers drugs in my garage if I just change the dosage (without patent/certification/safety/bioequivalance testing) and claim its legal503B $NVO $HIMS $LLY" [X Link](https://x.com/pennystockabe/status/2019904443714597329) 2026-02-06T22:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@pennystockabe abeabe posts on X about $nvo, $hims, $lly, novo the most. They currently have [--] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 35% stocks 31% technology brands 5% countries 3% exchanges 2% social networks 1% celebrities 1%
Social topic influence $nvo #40, $hims #106, $lly #24, novo #2689, yield curve 9%, stocks 7%, spx 4%, eli lilly #32, money 4%, in the 3%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @joosteninvestor @sethcl @peterberezinbca @intheyield @tacticzh @mrderivatives @investseekers @jimwpaulsen @macroalf @allanlichtman @michaelkantro @burrytracker @augurinfinity @hhsogc @fibonaccita @hatedmoats @anderssb @europeandgi @workvivo @meta
Top assets mentioned Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) SPX6900 (SPX) Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Rally (RLY) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Viking Therapeutics, Inc (VKTX) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) April (APRIL)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@TacticzH Novo is a national treasure and a point of pride in Denmark. They will figure it out. The pill will be successfull and the [--] month head start is huge. They will run Wegovy pill commercials in the superbowl they will capture the market/mental market share before then"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:35Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@TacticzH $50 price difference between an unsafe/uneffective copy cat vs the real official drug. Only silver lining if its allowed to stand"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"BREAKING: FDA to Restrict Copycat Weight Loss Drugs Sold by Pharma Rivals $HIMS plunges after hours $NVO higher after hours https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/fda-to-restrict-copycat-weight-loss-drugs-sold-by-pharma-rivals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/fda-to-restrict-copycat-weight-loss-drugs-sold-by-pharma-rivals"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"BREAKING: Based on a review of the applicable facts earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health Inc. (Hims) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the FFDAC Act and applicable Title [--] provisions $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"After a shortage ends compounding pharmacies are still allowed to make a compounded version of a drug if its legitimately customized for a specific patients clinical need that an FDA-approved product cannot meet. FDA regulatory framework sections 503A/503B $NVO $HIMS $LLY"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Fibonacci_TA Fib you are funny. Sentiment didnt do any of those. Those buisnesses had fundamental changes. Google had to fight for its survival. Novo started getting eat by competition & illegal compounders. etc. Sentiment can be low or high and the trend continuing. The buis. changed"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:12Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@HatedMoats $HIMS Opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. The decision to copy cat a drug just released after billions of research safety/efficcy data and altered it because they don't own the release mechanism technology creating a new drug crossed a line of no return $NVO $LLY $PFE"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS Opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. The decision to copy cat a drug just released after billions of research showing safety & efficacy then altered it because they don't own the absorption technology creating a new drug crossed a line of no return $NVO $LLY $SPX"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Even Generic Pharma companies have to (1) File an intent application w/ the FDA to produce (2) Show bioequiv. to branded drug (3) Show Safety & Efficacy data (5) Have an FDA certified facility to produce $HIMS opened a Pandora box that cannot be unclosed withFDA/DOJ $NVO $SPX"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mr_Derivatives $HIM $NVO To late pandora's box has been opened. They crossed a major red line when they started altering the drug"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"GLP1's are trending on Twitter. So. :-) $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-08T17:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@anders_sb_ Sarcasim Tom Brady was back QB at some point. Amazon was just a book store Novo distrupted a larger insulin player at some point. The guy selling hot dogs from the stand outside of McDonalds is can steal all their customers. Vanity cometh before the fall"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Hims opened a Pandora box they cannot unclose. So dumb. Lawsuit may award NVO damages for back pay since FDA warnings to stop/when shortage ended. Like they had [--] sensibility to read the room and recogonize they went too far with pill intention. $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@investseekers Wegovy/Ozempic/Wegovy/Zepbound The market has a lot of brands. Better to be a generic competing for sales of the same brand drug than for a new brand fighting these [--] brands. The prices now are so low hard for new entrants. Ozempic isnt a $1000 anymore. $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@European_DGI I am all about the SNACK's man. $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@investseekers My sense is people who are doing injections stay with what they are doing. The pill is drawing new customers who prefer the simplicity of the pill. Once people develop a habit they stick with it. Once you you get customers on your drug they stay on your drug. [--] month lead"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Novo is selling two weightloss drugs. Eli Lilly is selling two weightloss drugs. Lilly trades at [--] PE Novo is trading at 14x PE Novo was the first entrant in the field and began losing share because of cheaper competitors. Now Novo is the cheapest at $149. $NVO $LLY"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mr_Derivatives $UNH Great company"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Novo dropped over 66% because (1) They were expensive and now their cheap ($149) (2) They had supply issues but now thats resolved (3) Copy cats ( $HIMS) were allowed and now thats being closed. $NVO is 14x PE (10x PE ex. bvps) $LLY 45x PE Patents hold in US/EU until 2032"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Score is 28-3 and it's the 2nd half. (1) Wegovy pill now cheapest @$149/month (2) Supply chain issues resolved. (3) Compounders getting shutdown (4) [--] month lead + early mental brand share. (5) Most efficacious pill Sorry $LLY losing team made adjustements. $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @SethCL: 100% of the time 💯 Since [----] buying $SPX on Midterm-Election Day (MTE) generated a median return of +15.2% through June [--] o"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"60 min interview of Novo Nord's HQ was all it took for me. Amazing Danish scientist. Amazing work culture and environment for science. 84% satisifaction rating on Glassdoor by employees. Novo is Denmarks national treasure w/ intense focus on science. $NVO $LLY $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"RT @SethCL: NYSE High-Low Logic Index crossed above [----] threshold whereby past readings of extremely bifurcated mkt found corrections w/i"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"+SB commercials. Early mental brand share. Adhesive Strip=BandAid Ride share = Ube Photocopy=Xerox GLP1 pill = Wegovy Pill"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"RT @SethCL: One of these charts is not like the other Nasdaq Summation Index. trending opposite of all other indices/cap-tiers This not"
X Link 2026-02-15T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Look at the future (not the past) (1) Wegovy pill has [--] month lead and mental brand share. (2) Wegovy pill at $149. Lowest price already for GLP1. (3) Semag. has other health benefits (heart liver etc.) (4)** Novo first page on TrumpRx site** (5) Most efficacious $NVO $LLY"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The Guardian says the obesity market will be $200 billion by [----]. But in a market with: Wegovy/Ozempic/Zepbound/Mounjaro It's better to be a generic than a new brand competing with these [--] large brands and must be pill form. Wegovy pill $149. $VKTX $LLY $NVO $MRK $PFE $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-15T23:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL Hey Seth are average these returns for those trading days Aren't the returns in the highlighted box lower than the first half of April"
X Link 2024-04-13T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL And by the way I agree with your bullish philosophy. It pays more to be long in the market than to be short. And it pays to be long when some indicators (yield curve eg)are saying the economy is going into a recession. You have to whistle past the graveyard as an investor"
X Link 2024-04-13T17:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@SethCL Feels oversold. The S&P not reflective of most stocks. Lots of stocks down hitting new [--] week lows. The market is the RUT not the SPX. A few stocks are lifting the SPX"
X Link 2024-04-14T13:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@intheyield Todays slowing employment report and the uptick in unemployment is making me more convinced we are headed for a labor market recession. I see the weakness in day to day living consumers are cutting back eschewing higher prices. Samhs rule and yield curve inversion look right"
X Link 2024-05-03T14:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA I came to the same conclusion yesterday. Based on the recent unemployment rate number and the jobs numbers. Not sure what the market was rallying for yeserday. There was nothing exciting about that labor report. I genuinely thought that all the liquidity in the system would"
X Link 2024-05-04T17:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@intheyield Believe it or not they were actually doing it before they stated it. Go to fred and type TREAST. The decline was happening for treasuries even before. Treastury holdings is the variable I found that is more important than the iverall balance sheet"
X Link 2024-05-13T20:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@workvivo @Meta That's great maybe Zoom can offer Docs Slides and Sheets to compete against Microsoft Office. Zoom charges more for it's subscription than MS [---] but doesn't offer those core productivity solutions"
X Link 2024-05-14T20:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL It takes about a [---] - [--] yrs for the effect of rate hickes to hit the economy. For debt to roll over for firms at higher rates for ARMS to reset for households. This is why I have argued what causes recession is less to do with yield curve inversions but rather higher rates"
X Link 2024-05-15T01:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL A similar graph can be drawn for the interest expense for the US govt. It lags current rates by about the [---] - [--] yrs. But you rightfully pointed out in your graph most of the economy is interest rate hedged. Most households and business have fixed rate debt"
X Link 2024-05-15T01:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Is a Recession coming Some indicators say yes others say no. M1 money supply still says there is a lot of money in the system. It's very possible the yield curve ca stay inverted for a very very long time"
X Link 2024-05-15T19:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA I wouldn't use the recent post pandemic period to estimate the phillips curve. But the P.C. is very one dimensional and is really a demand side view of inflation and unemployment. Supply side factors can lower both unemployment and inflation concurrently"
X Link 2024-05-16T01:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL Partly what explains this graph is the weakness in the avg firm vs the big caps. It's not just for discretionary big caps lead by 5-7 stocks in the SPX are carrying the whole index higher. Large firms are crushing medium to small size firms. Oligopolies are running theeconomy"
X Link 2024-05-16T12:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Is a recession looming The widely known yield curve says yes. But how accurate has the widely known indicator been Well it turns out yield curve inversions were the norm not the exception prior the Great Depression. And yield curves can stay inverted for a very long time"
X Link 2024-05-16T12:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SethCL @jimwpaulsen I agree. Historically most of the returns come from a few stocks -- the benefits of indexing and diversification. I think EW/CW performance can also be explained by poltical cycle. Republicans tend to be better for small businesses and so Russell outperforms"
X Link 2024-05-17T13:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Funds shifted out [--] months fwd vs the VIX. I am bullish but I have to look at both sides of things. Will the relationship still hold in the future (if you believe there is one) Unsure"
X Link 2024-05-17T15:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@McClellanOsc It's supply & demand. The demand curve is shifting to the left (less buyers) as prices rise. Who wants to buy stocks at high prices"
X Link 2024-05-21T11:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Money Supply growth indicating an acceleration in CPI inflation later this year. Money supply used to have a much stronger relationship with inflation but due to international trade (lower goods from overseas) and the excess reserve payments by the Fed to banks it's weakened"
X Link 2024-05-22T13:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Barchart The Russell [----] is the stock market not the S&P [---] which is driven higher by [--] stocks. Most companies aren't doing as great"
X Link 2024-05-24T02:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@intheyield To understand lead time the real question at heart is why does the yield curve even predict recessions The yield curve (L-S spread) to me is not the only driving factor here but rather the high level of the Short rate (Fed Funds) causing the recession (contd)"
X Link 2024-05-26T13:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@GameofTrades_ I think we are expwriencing all the symptoms of a recession but absent of labor market contraction and stock market pull back on the big caps. Russel looks like its been in a recession for a while now. Investors may have recession smoothed the widely known yield curve indicator"
X Link 2024-05-26T16:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MacroAlf Your wrong. Bank reserves are not liquidity but a measure of it. Most of the Bank reserves are sitting on Fed's bal. sheet because the banks are collecting interest rate. Someone using their deposits on daily life is NOT liquidity bc. its NOT availiable capital for deploymnt"
X Link 2024-05-26T16:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MacroAlf Liquidity is hard to measure but the precise definition for Market liquidity is: "The availiable cash capital willing and able to be deployed in a particular market by an investor" the other liquidity is just broad economic liquidity"
X Link 2024-05-26T16:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Zoom When will Zoom docs be released Microsoft and Google have word doc editors amd abilitiy to make presentation slides"
X Link 2024-06-12T17:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @Vetta_Fi If it weren't for the AI innovation pushing up 5-7 stocks there wouldn't be a rally in the large cap indices. Russell indicating a recessionary period for a while"
X Link 2024-06-22T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA Probably oddest recession I have ever seen. I have made this argument to many. We are recession smoothing. Yield curve is widely followed. Investors/Busi's see the signal and they cut back spending/investment in effect "smoothing" the recession. No one time crash but rolling"
X Link 2024-06-29T15:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @markets In otherwords the govt. is financing this overperformance in US equities. Just look at our deficit It will have to be paid back. The EU pulls in enough tax receipts for spending but has a lower performing stock market"
X Link 2024-07-17T18:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BobEUnlimited Very possible no off-cliff nose dive in RUT when the next recession starts. Yield curve signal observed and recession smoothed/priced in. We may rally into the next recession happened before in the late 60's"
X Link 2024-07-24T20:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BBQFinanceJake @joosteninvestor @JeffWeniger The discrepancy in value between large caps and small caps. I love NVDIA I use their GPU's for model estimation but they are not worth 3T. They have a lot of competition coming after their lead they simply design chips but had a lead competitors foolishly gave them"
X Link 2024-07-27T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ablebonus @joosteninvestor @LanceRoberts It was money sitting in money market mutual funds (MM - Stock market) and money rotating from smaller equities to mega caps"
X Link 2024-08-03T10:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA Any other time period seeing how the indicators are going it's an easy call. But this time period is very different. We paid fwd in govt. spending and money supply injections for several recessions"
X Link 2024-08-03T12:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@intheyield Out of the last [--] times the Fed rate cut for the first time after the Fed cut rates [--] were right into a recessions [--] were non-recessionary"
X Link 2024-08-08T03:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor Great chart This chart does not indicate a recession. On my profile I posted a similar graph but for households showing fixed vs arm % of loans. Most home borrowers are still paying low interest payments comparison to [----] when rates were high. Interest insensitive economy"
X Link 2024-08-09T19:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor If you buy the story that we're not in a recession then your graph is a reminder that even though the Fed raised rate so what The economy is still interest rate immune and this bull market has more to go"
X Link 2024-08-09T20:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA [----] was another exception. Rates cuts but no recession. Claudia's rule is probably the best one out there -- Claudia Rule. The Vix doesn't just shoot up like that and things just go to normal. Even when the economy is in a recession the marketsendsfalse signals. @Claudia_Sahm"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@intheyield But something to note ECB balance sheet is already at trend. China's balance sheet as well"
X Link 2024-08-15T17:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA Peter the issue is CRE is experiencing it's own idiosyncratic headwinds. I am not sure this is the "slam your hand on the table" recession indicator it's been trending up for a while you know this already. I am not saying anything you already don't know. (cont'd)"
X Link 2024-08-24T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PeterBerezinBCA But as a general note The markets are designed to give you bad signals as it heads higher. And good signals on the way down. But the following are 1) VIX hitting [--] in one single day 2) Sahms rule got triggered UR heading higher 3) YC uninverting 4) Slow down in fiscal flows"
X Link 2024-08-24T13:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BoeingSpace NASA was wrong. Boeing was right"
X Link 2024-09-07T06:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@joehansenxx @NASA @Space_Station Yes we should let Elon and the chinese govt. control aerospace"
X Link 2024-09-07T18:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@AllanLichtman Dr. Lichtman I am not sure how you don't consider the never ending and expanding wars in Ukraine and Gaza/Lebanon and ME not triggering the 'Foreign Failure:' and 'Foreign Success:' keys. We could be in a recession right now 6th key right there"
X Link 2024-11-03T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AllanLichtman Your keys are predicting the opposite outcome 1) We might be in a recession that will be called months later. 2) Biden administration had no international success' look at all the wars (Ukraine/Gaza/Lebanon) US is involved in. 3) Biden/Harris handling of the borderwasascandal"
X Link 2024-11-03T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @callieabost Its possible we had a recession (a big slow down) without labor market recession. We have to be open we did the non-labor market recession and now its over with"
X Link 2024-11-28T01:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @MichaelKantro Here is an important indicator starting to turn up Maybe we survive this deep sowdown with a labor market recession due to the high liquidiuity and strong demographic tail winds (millenials hitting productivity years) https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1863642788815904777t=6BAm2WZyUGbAqIUKR8QsPA&s=19 ISM New Orders (LEADING Indicator) moves above [--] which looks more like recovery than #recession. https://t.co/k5hpSPYqW3 https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1863642788815904777t=6BAm2WZyUGbAqIUKR8QsPA&s=19 ISM New Orders (LEADING Indicator) moves above [--] which looks"
X Link 2024-12-03T22:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @MichaelKantro Meant to say without* a labor market recession"
X Link 2024-12-03T22:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@EPBResearch By the time the payroll indicators turn recessionary it will have already been too late. 90% of the time they lag the market. Sometimes the market rallies while unemployment is increasing (happened before)"
X Link 2024-12-12T08:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Long Term Treasuries are the most heavily shorted in history. Leveraged (Hedge) Funds (blue line) are the most short ever. Their track record is not that good. For the Ultra [--] yr contract everyone is short except Asset Managers. The fear of reigniting inflation main cause"
X Link 2024-12-13T21:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Copper/Gold ratio (or any industrial metal/Gold ratio) is trending lower while rates remain high"
X Link 2024-12-13T23:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@burrytracker Hi Mike. There is a graph on my channel that I posted that shows the CFTC's COT report position for US Treasuries. Take a look at the graph but to summarize it H.Funds are the most short Treasuries ever. You Gundlach Drunkenmiller Tudor Jones etc. are all riding together"
X Link 2024-12-21T07:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Being short US Treasuries is the consensus trade now of [----]. Please if your bearish on US Treasuries (right as the yield curve is un-inverting) your not a contrarian your view is the consensus. Mike Burry thinks he is being a contrarian right now @burrytracker"
X Link 2024-12-22T17:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@sengfoo88 Bird hit the plane. The tower warned of bird strike. Passanger texted about a bird hitting the plane before the crash. Nothing to do with Boeing"
X Link 2024-12-29T08:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@intheyield In my humble opinion you have the graph not so right. It shouldnt be from inversion but from "uninversion". The universion carries the info"
X Link 2025-01-10T21:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor Awesome graph My long term bond portfolio is not doing well sadly. hoping for better days where rates head lower. That graph you showed on the yield curve continuing to uninvert was interesting"
X Link 2025-05-13T23:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @jimwpaulsen Not to mention the yield curve is at the same spot that most Recessions begin. Is the market pulling everybody in right before for the big crash No idea. Short rates should be lower as in most recessions. Proof just look at the ECB's policy rate. Should be your next graph"
X Link 2025-06-07T17:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @AugurInfinity Here is my interesting take. Jay Powell admitted had ir not been for tariffs there would have been cuts to fedfunds. If we take the Eurozone policy path as the alternate univ. of no tariffs the yield curve wouldve been solidly uninverted. Typical of a recession + mkt rebound"
X Link 2025-08-02T15:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @AugurInfinity So its very possible the April tariff drop was the big recession drop and now the yield curve has un-inverted and a new economic cycle has started. The economy feels bad now because we are in a recession (but no labor mkt recesion) and mkt keeps ripping higher from here"
X Link 2025-08-02T15:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joosteninvestor @opinion Hard to make that argument when every central bank is cutting rates amd has been for a year and the economy feels like in a recession non-labor mkt recession"
X Link 2025-08-17T17:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"For anyone interested in the market cycles. American Eagle and clothing retailers look they are poised to rally. The black line is Abrecrombie"
X Link 2025-08-20T20:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Love this graph. It shows how competition affects all firms (not just drug companies). The more competitors the more perfect competition you have driving economic profits to [--]. Notice how it doesn't take that many competitors"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@WealthyReadings Novo is Denmarks largest (only big company). They attract top talent across the country. Denmark full of high quality people smart educated industrious. Novo is a national pride for them. Eli Lilly is just another pharma company here in the US in Denmark Novo is everything"
X Link 2026-02-04T05:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TacticzH Stocks down 65%+ are never quick turnarounds. I knew this going in. Competition is everything and lilly is a strong U.S. competitors. GLP1 more important to Novo than Lilly Lilly has a broader portfolio. New CEO + Danish culture + LOE globally = conservative guidance"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@zerohedge I am not sure if this is legal. GLP1's were removed off the FDA shortage list so compounding is now illegal"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TacticzH It's illegal. Whats stopping any compound pharmacy from copying any other drug There is no FDA shortage anymore for GLP1. If Hims is allowed to move with this the fabric of patent protection would collapse. Novo/Lilly already cut a deal with the president for TrumpRx"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO $HIM $LLY Novo planning to take legal action against HIMS copycast generic. What other on patent drugs will HIMS try to steal next Eli Lilly will not sit idle by on this with the FDA. This impacts them too. https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=916489 https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=916489"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO $HIMS $LLY In April [----] a federal judge in Texas denied a request by compounding groups to keep making copies of semaglutide effectively upholding the FDA's decision to end the shortage and clearing the path for enforcement against compounders"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO $HIMS $LLY Novo Nordisk has already obtainedover [--] permanent injunctionsagainst various clinics and pharmacies for selling unapproved semaglutide products. Hims stock is now negative because their investors know this is a stunt. Semaglitude patents have also beenupheld"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MontanaMatos Novo Nordisk has already obtainedover [--] permanent injunctionsagainst various clinics and pharmacies for selling unapproved semaglutide products"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@qcapital2020 The good thing is the price difference between what Novo is selling the pill and HIMS is $50 whereas before it was much larger. No one would the risk of a bad/uneffective/potentially unsafe drug for a $50 difference. Where is the FDA"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TacticzH Hims really benefited when Ozempic/Wegovy was $1000. Same for Eli Lilly who undercut. Lots of fat on the pig. Well now its $150 w/o insurance. Hims dropped today because either (1) Legally their drug wouldnt be allowed by regulators/courts (2) Not much fat to fry like before"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO $HIMS $LLY Hims shares plunge after FDA chief threatens action on 'illegal copycat drugs' Feb [--] (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will take swift action against companies that mass-market "illegal copycat drugs" .(contd) https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/fda-take-action-companies-marketing-illegal-copycat-drugs-fda-chief-says-2026-02-05/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/fda-take-action-companies-marketing-illegal-copycat-drugs-fda-chief-says-2026-02-05/"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@NFTLunatic I am sorry but when did making drugs illegally became an investable buisness on the public markets. Novo spends billions developing a drug then HIMS w/o patents/bioequivalnce studies/efficacy/safety data makes its own on a whim $HIMS crossed a major red line of illegality today"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"HIMS entire buisness model is counterfitting drugs. A buisness model best done under the regulatory radar. Then HIMS pirates Novo's drug which they spent billions researching then the FDA gives it a faceslap. What next Am I allowed to make drugs in my garage $NVO $HIMS $LLY"
X Link 2026-02-06T04:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO Forever cursed. Hate to say it"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"HIMS took a bite they couldn't chew. The DOJ is now investigating their buisness. What next Am I allow to copy and make Pfizers drugs in my garage if I just change the dosage (without patent/certification/safety/bioequivalance testing) and claim its legal503B $NVO $HIMS $LLY"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
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