# ![@ottavicap Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1862527529627660289.png) @ottavicap Ottavi

Ottavi posts on X about in the, $mar, $hlt, growth the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1862527529627660289/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1862527529627660289/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +71%
- [--] Month [------] +929%
- [--] Months [------] +1,325%
- [--] Year [------] +9,233%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1862527529627660289/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1862527529627660289/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +33%
- [--] Month [--] +228%
- [--] Months [--] +420%
- [--] Year [--] +4,550%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1862527529627660289/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1862527529627660289/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +11%
- [--] Month [---] +87%
- [--] Months [---] +194%
- [--] Year [---] +1,075%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1862527529627660289/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1862527529627660289/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  53% [finance](/list/finance)  25% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  16% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  8% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  4% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  2% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[in the](/topic/in-the) 10%, [$mar](/topic/$mar) 9%, [$hlt](/topic/$hlt) #20, [growth](/topic/growth) 8%, [agentic](/topic/agentic) #802, [$four](/topic/$four) #6, [luxury](/topic/luxury) 6%, [has been](/topic/has-been) 5%, [$figr](/topic/$figr) 4%, [$hood](/topic/$hood) #380

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@bobspaysubstack](/creator/undefined) [@nachunja](/creator/undefined) [@collision](/creator/undefined) [@jerrycap](/creator/undefined) [@gokulr](/creator/undefined) [@openai](/creator/undefined) [@mattslotnick](/creator/undefined) [@modestproposal1](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoroel](/creator/undefined) [@jianggan](/creator/undefined) [@hhsogc](/creator/undefined) [@patrickc](/creator/undefined) [@elilillyandco](/creator/undefined) [@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@mcagney](/creator/undefined) [@onodacapital](/creator/undefined) [@howardlindzon](/creator/undefined) [@seekingvalue2](/creator/undefined) [@stripe](/creator/undefined) [@awxjack](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Marriott International Inc (MAR)](/topic/$mar) [Hilton Hotels Corporation Common Stock (HLT)](/topic/$hlt) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR)](/topic/$figr) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)](/topic/$abnb) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Block, Inc. (XYZ)](/topic/$xyz) [Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Common Stock (WH)](/topic/$wh) [Choice Hotels Intnl. (CHH)](/topic/$chh) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)](/topic/$schw) [Coupang, Inc.  (CPNG)](/topic/$cpng) [American Express Company (AXP)](/topic/$axp) [TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP)](/topic/$trip) [Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) [Expedia Group Inc (EXPE)](/topic/$expe) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Carnival Corp (CCL)](/topic/$ccl) [Sea Limited (SE)](/topic/$se) [InterContinental Hotels Group Plc (IHG)](/topic/$ihg) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [IAC/InterActiveCorp Common Stock (IAC)](/topic/$iac) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [Toast, Inc. (TOST)](/topic/$tost)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Base effects skew these growth rates - $MAR is 32% larger than $HLT but $HLT also added more rooms than $MAR in [----] (first time in [--] years) with the gap potentially widening in [----]. $HLT is also doing it more capital efficiently. In [----] I estimate $HLT paid $1300 in "key money" per net room added vs. $MAR at $4700. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015892085484789875 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015892085484789875"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2015892085484789875)  2026-01-26T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$HLT's NUG guidance sets it up to grow EPS DD% again in [----] with $MAR likely growing HSD% (with RevPAR potentially pushing it to DD%). Better growth and FCF conversion - it's not surprising that HLT has commanded a premium multiple vs. $MAR. That seems likely to continue this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015892088064270741 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015892088064270741"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2015892088064270741)  2026-01-26T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PYPL is $FISV-ering payments again even though this is clearly idiosyncratic to $PYPL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2018695361670312152)  2026-02-03T14:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SHOP could make sense especially since they'd save costs from cutting out Stripe I'd call $FOUR a dark horse given their budding ecom aspirations but probably unlikely given the timing with the GB deal integration Depending on the funding and deal size Checkout could use it as a way to expand into the US https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018712924328525872 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018712924328525872"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2018712924328525872)  2026-02-03T15:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I posted my first article on $FIGR. It ended up being longer than I'd like but hope you enjoy. I'll detail the specific investment thesis points in a future post. https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019122690427117899s=20 https://t.co/rjBw1JmpOO https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019122690427117899s=20 https://t.co/rjBw1JmpOO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019123527706898657)  2026-02-04T18:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@gokulr @OpenAI reminds me of @matt_slotnick prescient post from several months ago: https://open.substack.com/pub/mslotnick/p/data-rules-everything-around-me-ther=5uosig&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/mslotnick/p/data-rules-everything-around-me-ther=5uosig&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019780927199584312)  2026-02-06T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$GEMI's issue is they're pursuing the same "everything exchange" thesis as $COIN $HOOD etc. with significantly less scale. It's a tough place to be in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019789907414151647)  2026-02-06T15:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HIMS strategic blunders will be studied they got fortunate with compounding and then their hubris resulted in them not being included as a partner in the WeGovy pill rollout (because they gave $NVO the finger with compounding including publicly) so their path forward was todeceive patients with a pill that doesnt work but was marketed as such Incredible. Even if the legal jeopardy doesnt permanently impair the business (unlikely) theyve all but guaranteed they will lose GLP-1s which is kinda an important part of the growth story. Based on a review of the applicable facts earlier today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019893056124686605)  2026-02-06T21:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Tokenization simply put allows 24/7 trading faster settlement better liquidity for real-world assets (ie makes them tradable) and depending on how its done disintermediates much the existing public equities value chain which removes costs frees up capital and allows more of the stock ownership economics to flow directly to the owner (ie if I hold the tokenized equity directly in my wallet I can collect more of the borrow against the shares instead of it going to the PB). The type of impact this will have and whether its ultimately good or bad is up for debate. I tend to think 24/7 trading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020117553293500763)  2026-02-07T12:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting to see how fast cash-pay is scaling for $LLY. 30%+ of Zepbound prescriptions are now through LillyDirect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020142164693352831)  2026-02-07T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting to revisit $LLY CEO David Ricks conversation with @patrickc @collision on Cheeky Pint with this new data in mind (LillyDirect discussed at 1:41:00 mark): Dave Ricks has been at @EliLillyandCo for 20% of its 150-year history. He came to the pub poured his own Guinness and gave us a 2-hour state of the pharma union: drug prices clinical trials patent clocks the rise of generics Chinese peptides compounding pharmacies the US https://t.co/oqmT0mLKUr Dave Ricks has been at @EliLillyandCo for 20% of its 150-year history. He came to the pub poured his own Guinness and gave us a 2-hour"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020142167860068858)  2026-02-07T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@nachunja This was largely due to the buyout rumors not earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020181111071207811)  2026-02-07T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@nachunja Yeah thats right there was a good initial reaction to earnings then another leg-up post buyout rumors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020185550234480765)  2026-02-07T17:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ACapitalLP Digital performing much better than many expected with GOOG traffic headwinds Vogel has done a great job with the asset everything considered. $IAC SOTP is compelling if/when Diller decides to unlock value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020345830474231838)  2026-02-08T03:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good read from $FIGR co-founder on blockchain momentum for real use cases vs the common $BTC/token debate https://t.co/2DFkSLoGai https://t.co/2DFkSLoGai"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020969168674210200)  2026-02-09T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mcagney obviously does a much better job than me explaining what $FIGR has built/is building but I wrote about it here in case its of interest: https://t.co/rjBw1JmpOO https://t.co/rjBw1JmpOO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020969867579662427)  2026-02-09T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap Stripe is not an immaterial driver to university endowment returns given how outsized some of them are with Sequoia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021181866598875206)  2026-02-10T11:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@OnodaCapital @howardlindzon Yes - $SCHW added more actives than $HOOD in the last [--] Qs; in [--] of last [--] Qs and averaged 60k more actives added per Q than $HOOD over that period. As of Q4 $SCHW at 38.5M active brokerage accounts vs. $HOOD at 27M funded customers. https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021342198521049537s=20 Updated for $HOOD's Q4 results: Funded customer growth at $HOOD continues to slow. https://t.co/gR2lhVDj14 https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021342198521049537s=20 Updated for $HOOD's Q4 results: Funded customer growth at $HOOD continues to slow. https://t.co/gR2lhVDj14"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021663325936144560)  2026-02-11T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@seekingvalue2 Im sure Bill would love to focus 100% on AI out of the public eye"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022255985381843408)  2026-02-13T10:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$FOUR does process for some $HLT franchisees - $HLT reports rooms by segment - 95% are upper upscale upscale and upper midscale so you can estimate a relatively accurate growth proxy using the CoStar/STR data. This proxy has closely tracked reported results which has closely tracked the US industry growth given these segments haven't been bifurcated like luxury and economy. $HLT's US RevPAR will likely come in around -1% when they report on 2/11. So to answer your question - I think $HLT's impact on $FOUR is relatively immaterial. How much of $FOUR's business is lower-end/economy will likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2017294690035376624)  2026-01-30T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wrote a brief post on the evolving threats and opportunities for merchant acquirers from AI agentic commerce and stablecoins. Thoughts are welcomed $PYPL $GPN $ADYEN.NA $FOUR $TOST $XYZ $PAR https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019418919828586788 https://t.co/xFCAzQKs5c https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019418919828586788 https://t.co/xFCAzQKs5c"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019419850691735943)  2026-02-05T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nope definitely didnt help. https://x.com/openoutcrier/status/2019409398376873999s=46&t=8Tm7OW6wGWNvx5AYzwuBug Did $CPNG endorse this Cant imagine this will help them with the government https://t.co/3Bxr6iMNdZ https://x.com/openoutcrier/status/2019409398376873999s=46&t=8Tm7OW6wGWNvx5AYzwuBug Did $CPNG endorse this Cant imagine this will help them with the government https://t.co/3Bxr6iMNdZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019420998492455366)  2026-02-05T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another one. $XYZ cutting up to 10% of its workforce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020256991609004096)  2026-02-07T22:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Stripe tendering at $140B while $ADYEN is valued at $45B the valuations between the two have never been more bifurcated. It seems likely someone is wrong This was an auspiciously-timed quote. @stripe is in talks for a tender offer valuing the company at $140B. That's up from $107B in the fall. https://t.co/3EHL07KS8p This was an auspiciously-timed quote. @stripe is in talks for a tender offer valuing the company at $140B. That's up from $107B in the fall. https://t.co/3EHL07KS8p"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2020992010665234651)  2026-02-09T22:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack $MAR has more luxury exposure than $HLT but I'd expect $HLT to report similar results for the remaining segments tomorrow https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021218976605298895s=20 $MAR results this morning mirror what we've seen in the industry data - luxury remains strong but it gets weaker as you move down the chain segments. https://t.co/af84mEGV1w https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021218976605298895s=20 $MAR results this morning mirror what we've seen in the industry data - luxury remains strong but it gets weaker as you move down the chain segments. https://t.co/af84mEGV1w"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021219871632068886)  2026-02-10T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack $HLT Q4 in US came in at -1.6% vs -1.2% projected from STR data. Guiding to 1-2% global RevPAR growth in Q1/FY25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021543832727490613)  2026-02-11T11:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JerryCap The current iteration of this is really just search [---] itll become more agentic over time but this is justecommerce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022376376305664183)  2026-02-13T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@awxjack @davistrazza Im curious if you think Stripe would be valued differently in the public markets $140B is a 30% increase from the last round in Sept. Even if you dont consider $ADYEN tech $SHOP is down 25% over that same time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022382741439049898)  2026-02-13T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This plus a more favorable holiday calendar America's 250th birthday the World Cup etc. should be tailwinds to all segments including the lower-end. If this occurs $WH could stand to benefit disproportionately since it's multiple has decoupled from peers (ex- $CHH who has also faced headwinds) as RevPAR declines have slowed EPS growth to mid-single-digits in [----]. If RevPAR recovers to LSD% in [----] then EPS should return to double-digit % and the multiple could revert closer to peers/historical normspotentially setting it up to generate the best returns of the group in the year ahead."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807253020524721)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another article highlighting the underperformance for many large endowments. Question is with many souring on PE (VC has similar issues) and S&P/QQQ outperforming most active managers where do endowments go to find active outperformance More publics exposure is likely to move to passive but cant index too much because well then theyd be out of a job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2023148311633346991)  2026-02-15T21:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"One thing to keep in mind for $FOUR is that while they do have luxury hotels (their shareholder letters typically highlight these wins) a significant amount of their lodging exposure is to mid/lower-end hotels (think $CHH). $AXP data tracks the strength seen in luxury but the rest of the lodging market is soft with the largest bifurcation in economy (which has been also impacted by tough hurricane comps from 2024). I expect the data to improve over the next several weeks but just something to keep in mind for Q4 specifically. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017273558217433567"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2017273558217433567)  2026-01-30T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I think one of the bigger narrative violations is that $HOOD is taking share from $SCHW. Interesting to look at sequential account growth for both over the past three years. On avg $SCHW has added 400k net new Q/Q while $HOOD has added 325k* * $HOOD funded accounts is as of Nov so it's possible that growth ticked up in Dec but M/M was down -1% from Oct to Nov https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019450338038759733 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019450338038759733"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019450338038759733)  2026-02-05T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$MAR results this morning mirror what we've seen in the industry data - luxury remains strong but it gets weaker as you move down the chain segments. Some updated US travel datapoints. US RevPAR on a trailing 3-week avg. Lapping tough comps in early Q1 '25 which likely explains recent luxury weakness but over the past few months the story remains the same - luxury has been strong economy weak and total US mmuddling along https://t.co/iorCsj8a2q Some updated US travel datapoints. US RevPAR on a trailing 3-week avg. Lapping tough comps in early Q1 '25 which likely explains recent luxury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021218976605298895)  2026-02-10T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Updated for $HOOD's Q4 results: Funded customer growth at $HOOD continues to slow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021342198521049537)  2026-02-10T21:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ahead of Adyens Q4 earnings tomorrow I wanted to share some thoughts on Adyen especially given the recent selloff. For additional background on Adyen I recommend reading Bob Hammels http://x.com/i/article/2021753355559645184 http://x.com/i/article/2021753355559645184"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021761339589636493)  2026-02-12T01:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Adyen reported H2 [----] results yesterday with the stock finishing down 22% on the day. Key metrics: Transaction volume: [-----] billion vs. [-----] billion consensus (missed by 3%) up 15% YoY (FX http://x.com/i/article/2022326812269793280 http://x.com/i/article/2022326812269793280"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022330310440997155)  2026-02-13T15:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ADYEN reported earnings yesterday. The stock ended the day down 22%. The company lowered its [----] revenue guidance from "low-to-mid twenties" to 20-22% FX-neutralanother quarter of negative surprises that erodes management's credibility. The company is well into its "second act" with core Digital revenue consistently growing in the teens. Emerging units like Unified Commerce and Platforms must now shoulder more growth to hit the company's 20%+ three-year targets. More here: More here: https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022330310440997155 https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022330310440997155"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022341124438778087)  2026-02-13T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Consumer psychology is a hell of a drug $ABNB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022365478589534336)  2026-02-13T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$ABNB Reserve Now Pay Later is showing a modest impact to cancellation rates (1%) but longer lead times and higher ADRs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022371810579272045)  2026-02-13T18:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting point to think through for which categories will do well with agentic commerce (at least initially) - does anyone have a different opinion on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022372397924405248)  2026-02-13T18:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The lodging cycle poised to turn in [----] $HLT's Chris Nassetta on their Q4 call this week (caveat is Nassetta is a self-proclaimed optimist):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022396755695014077)  2026-02-13T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TRIP was dying before AI but it seems inevitable that AI will accelerate its decline. I remember the days when $TRIP was going to move down the travel booking funnel and compete with $BKNG and $EXPE. They used to have the most enviable positioning in the funnel and now it's arguably the opposite. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023119896112988286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023119896112988286"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023119896112988286)  2026-02-15T19:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Article link: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-ivies-are-having-second-thoughts-about-investing-in-private-equity-de04e52ast=sUEUud&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-ivies-are-having-second-thoughts-about-investing-in-private-equity-de04e52ast=sUEUud&reflink=article_copyURL_share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023148315052036375)  2026-02-15T21:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In the same conversation @collision framed agentic commerce as [--] levels: Level [--] - Better UI: And so imagine you find the winter jacket you like and you copy the URL into ChatGPT and just say Please buy this for me. And thats a much better experience than going and clicking around a site youve never been to before. And so theres just the agents doing the kind of tool use on your behalf and everyone can create that. Maybe it clarifies theres multiple colors which one do you like But its just replacing filling out form fields. Level [--] - Better Discovery & Search: Then level two is better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023425472839753966)  2026-02-16T15:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$AFRM CEO Max Levchin thinks entertainment purchases will remain human-driven; agents are best suited for the types of commerce that already rely on computers for search & discovery but humans will still complete the transaction. And that fully agentic is a ways away"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023426872307265625)  2026-02-16T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"As expected Isaacman collapsed his Class B/C shares and waived his TRA benefits. A positive for $FOUR shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021216384814841887)  2026-02-10T13:35Z [---] followers, 14.6K engagements


"I wrote some thoughts on $ADYEN https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021761339589636493s=20 https://t.co/GweJY30zFb https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021761339589636493s=20 https://t.co/GweJY30zFb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2021762899489026139)  2026-02-12T01:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Restaurant trends stabilizing $XYZ $FOUR and others called out weaker trends at conferences in Nov/early Dec but company commentary so far seems to be better than feared $FISV called out improving trends in Dec/Jan:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022360958891380740)  2026-02-13T17:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$TOST's GPV per location growth was 100bps worse QoQ but relatively stable - it's possible growth improved throughout the Q like $FISV but the company didn't provide much commentary on the call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022360962033160586)  2026-02-13T17:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Brian Chesky on agentic $ABNB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2022369602450125128)  2026-02-13T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@benthompson and @collision had a good conversation on the Cheeky Pint podcast covering many things including agentic commerce - some thoughts from both. Thompson: OpenAI taking a similar tactic in agentic as AOL did in the early days of ecommerce. In the Western world super apps/aggregators havent worked but they have in Asia is there anything about agentic that would make this different this time in the US My bet is no. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023425107788431760 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023425107788431760"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023425107788431760)  2026-02-16T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$RDDT Unsurprisingly Reddit COO Jennifer Wong thinks $RDDT is well-positioned as the trusted recommendation engineinsulated from agentic commerce where humans still make the key buying decisions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2023429290097078455)  2026-02-16T16:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$AXP stated on its 4/17 call that it's not seeing any noticeable change in trends which further supports that high-end consumers / businesses haven't materially changed their travel spending habits yet (for now at least) but there's a pullback on the low-end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1913238633672327638)  2025-04-18T14:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@modestproposal1 Wouldnt the first to be impacted be public equities It would seem like the most logical place to find liquidity quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1913584593329934532)  2025-04-19T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@modestproposal1 I know you're looking specifically at international inbound but MAR talked about overall trends in US/Canada - Easter had an impact as did general pause in travel due to tariff news / govt cuts. Overall Mar + Apr data still not strong up only 1% YoY but points to stable trends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1924497430344613930)  2025-05-19T16:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The [----] is just luxury and lifestyle hotels $HLT has [----] total hotels with 500k rooms in the pipeline which is 50% of its current system. Guidance is for net rooms growing organically 6-7% per year. 50%+ of pipeline outside the US with Hampton Home2 and Spark brands driving much of the growth. Branded hotels are essentially a duopoly now between $HLT / $MAR due to loyalty programs / better economics for owners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1929558863390347664)  2025-06-02T15:20Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Some thoughts on the current state of US travel as we enter the summer season. $MAR $HLT $BKNG $EXPE $ABNB $TRIP https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/us-travel-trends-summertime-sadnessr=5uosig&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/us-travel-trends-summertime-sadnessr=5uosig&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1933300650328178702)  2025-06-12T23:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"One explanation could be travelers are trading down from air travel and choosing local drive-to destinations but hotel revenue per available room data which captures all types of travel transit has been equally as weak - negative on a trailing [--] / [--] / 28-day basis. Occupancy is down 2% since early April - if occupancy declines continues it's only a matter of time before nightly rates start declining as hoteliers cut rates to try to fill rooms. These are still modest declines so likely don't see material moves down in ADR unless we get a more significant leg down but rate has been driving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1937305005767160263)  2025-06-24T00:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The data could very well be a short-term blip and turn as we enter the thick of summer post-July 4th but the longer the data trends this way the harder it is to ignore - especially as we enter Q2 earnings. $CCL first up tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1937305009496141950)  2025-06-24T00:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$CCL with good results and stated demand has improved M/M since April"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1937541142108897634)  2025-06-24T15:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@jevgenijs @nachunja The market capitalizes core net income not changes in mark-to-market BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1948735375079252036)  2025-07-25T13:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I think forcing tight feedback loops is important. Depending on your duration/thesis/current sizing maybe you dont decide to act on what youre seeing but you should still be on top of what the market is potentially telling you about changes to estimates and incorporate that in your thinking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1975952306190344223)  2025-10-08T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thanks. So Ramp said they're doing $80B in annualized volume with bill pay exceeding card volume. My estimates could be off depending on how revenue is accounted for etc but this could put current annualized gross profit at $300M valuing the current round at 76x GP. Company seems to be growing 100% so if extrapolated $600M NTM GP or 38x GP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1965531818188210483)  2025-09-09T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Different data but similar ballpark with B2C + card a small % of the total https://x.com/HadickM/status/1981725165139472581 2/ P2P is actually trending down and B2B continues to explode. B2B cross border + Treasury Mgmt remains the largest stablecoin opportunity IMO (and a place we've continued to invest in aggressively). https://t.co/rmgnbfZ8zA https://x.com/HadickM/status/1981725165139472581 2/ P2P is actually trending down and B2B continues to explode. B2B cross border + Treasury Mgmt remains the largest stablecoin opportunity IMO (and a place we've continued to invest in aggressively)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1981738981910856176)  2025-10-24T15:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack @WaterportCap FOUR is because of the Global Blue acquisition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1984702965136179281)  2025-11-01T19:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DynamicMoats At $32B thats 100x run-rate GP or 55x* NTM GP if we assume 100% growth. Thats a lot of embedded growth in that multiple https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/17/ramp-hits-32b-valuation-just-three-months-after-hitting-22-5b/ https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/17/ramp-hits-32b-valuation-just-three-months-after-hitting-22-5b/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1990557929632571524)  2025-11-17T23:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Another (I know I know) perspective on Brazils e-commerce market $MELI $SE https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/mercadolibre-shopee-and-the-battler=5uosig&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/mercadolibre-shopee-and-the-battler=5uosig&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1995296780934869402)  2025-12-01T00:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I don't think it's appreciated how much of a prolonged downturn lower-end hotels have been in since [----]. This graph compares RevPAR YoY % data from the first week YoY went negative during the GFC and the recent period starting Mar [----]. GFC was a more severe contraction but the duration now well surpasses even the GFC. In the recent period weeklies went positive in Q4 last year but this was due to displacement from hurricanes. Looking at it on a 2-year basis since Sept 10/11 weeks have been negative - indicating that excluding the hurricane bump trends would've remained weak last year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/1997071420829192242)  2025-12-05T22:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Sharing some thoughts on the publicly traded hotel franchisors including a more constructive backdrop for all lodging stocks (and specifically for $WH) in [----] $HLT $MAR $IHG $CHH $H https://ottavi.substack.com/p/us-hotel-franchisors-in-2025-luxuryr=5uosig https://ottavi.substack.com/p/us-hotel-franchisors-in-2025-luxuryr=5uosig"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001434198943416422)  2025-12-17T23:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BrianInCrypto @Cointelegraph @Benzinga @blockchainrptr @realcoincentral I read the attached links but it wasnt clear why do you think COIN is advantaged in tokenization Apologies if it was in one of the links and I missed it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001770249541062786)  2025-12-18T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"US Lodging bifurcation risk remains front and center. The Economy segment has suffered [--] consecutive weeks of YoY RevPAR contraction since March 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807240538595403)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Macro has been a constant headwind but are there reasons to be optimistic about [----] For one higher consumer tax refunds could stimulate travel demand among the lower- and middle-income cohorts most critical to the Economy segment's RevPAR performanceassuming the labor market doesn't slow further. BofA estimates tax refunds could rise 18% to $65B. Some of this will be offset by lower SNAP benefits but net-net this should stimulate the lower-end consumer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807244258656641)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lower-end consumers have been pulling back on discretionary purchases including lodging. Some of the recent declines are due to lapping hurricanes in [----] but weakness still exists even when considering tough comps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807246766837771)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@santiagoroel Santiago I enjoyed your post It inspired me to write up some thoughts on Dot-Com vis-a-vis crypto today and where the industry could be going. Hope you enjoy. https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/cryptos-dot-com-moment-2000-parallelsr=5uosig&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/ottavi/p/cryptos-dot-com-moment-2000-parallelsr=5uosig&utm_medium=ios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2003895460155818160)  2025-12-24T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Santiago R. Santos (@santiagoroel) recently wrote an insightful post on why crypto has entered its "most uncomfortable phase." His thesis: Adoption is accelerating but prices are lagging behind. And if it follows the Dot-Com bust this may last for years. https://x.com/santiagoroel/status/2001791915239575823s=20 https://x.com/santiagoroel/status/2001791915239575823s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2004628999486554420)  2025-12-26T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This reminded me of @corry_wang 's great [----] thread on the Dot-Com bubble. The key takeaways The "New Economy" wasn't just an internet bubbleit was a large-cap growth bubble. Internet was a relatively small % of the mania/market (as if crypto today). And history shows us that reflexivity is real but it always arrives on a lag. Corry's thread can be found here: https://x.com/corry_wang/status/1345192541545766915s=20 https://x.com/corry_wang/status/1345192541545766915s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2004629002179543292)  2025-12-26T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"For enterprise focused eCommerce acquirers yes. Not uncommon for large enterprises to use 2-3 acquirers and route depending on factors like costs geo payment methods etc. Enterprises also use multiple to maintain negotiating power on pricing. Also many times Adyen will start with an enterprise in one geo then scale to others over time so wallet share in EMEA for a customer might be 70% but NA is only 10% but will grow closer to EMEA over time etc. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004941014180459002 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004941014180459002"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2004941014180459002)  2025-12-27T15:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_zack_zhu SPXs scale is underappreciated. Also not commenting specifically on MELI posts but generally I think its a mistake to view SPX as a static logistics network vs how itll evolve over the coming years especially as $SE invests to expand more into different categories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2007149831614329265)  2026-01-02T17:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good post. I dont have exact figures offhand but I think I remember JD/BABA being closer to 50-60% JD was 70-80% before it revised its definition to BABAs a few years back. I could be wrong but either way I agree with your premise especially the importance of normalizing when comparing take rates and EBITDA margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2008202910514266144)  2026-01-05T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Why is the bill a "defacto ban on tokenized equities" After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs Coinbase unfortunately cant support the bill as written. There are too many issues including: - A defacto ban on tokenized equities - DeFi prohibitions giving the government unlimited access to your financial After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs Coinbase unfortunately cant support the bill as written. There are too many issues including: - A defacto ban on tokenized equities - DeFi prohibitions giving the government unlimited access to your"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2011548722661142946)  2026-01-14T21:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EleanorTerrett @coinbase Why do you think Brian thinks its a defacto ban on tokenized equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2011551874198224909)  2026-01-14T21:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@ThomasFarley Appreciate your thoughts Tom. Curious what youd change in the bill to create a bigger tokenization opportunity for the industry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2011868573115822336)  2026-01-15T18:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$COIN s stablecoin revenues come from its distribution agreement with $CRCL which will still be allowed based on how the bill is currently drafted (I think). Although I do think their longer term play is likely to launch their own stablecoin so in that world theyd want to be able to share the yield with consumers which is likely why they want this changed https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012577380343205917 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012577380343205917"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2012577380343205917)  2026-01-17T17:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Did $CPNG endorse this Cant imagine this will help them with the government https://www.axios.com/2026/01/22/coupang-korea-greenoaks-altimeter https://www.axios.com/2026/01/22/coupang-korea-greenoaks-altimeter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2014329484418109789)  2026-01-22T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The growth in investable opportunities in blockchain-based companies that generate real revenue / FCFsuch as $FIGR $CEPT $BTGO and othersand are valued on earnings / FCF multiples will exert a gravitational pull on valuations across the crypto market. We'll see capital flow to those that are delivering tangible economic value by commercializing blockchain products and services. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014360135838167056 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014360135838167056"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2014360135838167056)  2026-01-22T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HLT and $MAR pre-announced Q4 net unit growth this morning ahead of ALIS (as is customary). $HLT reported 6.7% NUG for FY25 (organic likely 6.5%) vs. $MAR's 4.3% growth. This is the first time since [----] that $HLT grew rooms within its LT guidance of 6-7%. $HLT also re-affirmed it expects NUG to 6-7% in [----]. $MAR did not guide in its PR but BBG consensus is at 4.4% in [----]. NUG was similar for both $HLT/MAR in [----] but $HLT returned to a more typical outperformance in [----] which is expected to continue in [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015892082481893603"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2015892082481893603)  2026-01-26T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Going into today $HLT $MAR $IHG and $H were all positive on the yearwith only HLT beating the market ever so slightly (15.8% vs. S&P [---] at 15.6%). $WH and CHH were down 22% and 35% respectively trailing $HLT and the market by 36% and 50% respectively. The entire group has rallied in the past week before today. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001807237145305304 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2001807237145305304"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807237145305304)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Empirically payments take rates have not reflected the narrative theyre commoditized. On a per industry basis in-person payments have been stable for a long time. Often I think people conflate enterprise waterfall pricing for someone like Adyen to mean that the whole industry is facing take rate pressure or they look at consolidated take rates of an acquirer (eg $FOUR) without parsing how different sector mix is impacting the aggregate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012135763102560397 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012135763102560397"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2012135763102560397)  2026-01-16T12:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"From $MA earnings - trends stable across the business. US volumes impacted from losing Capital One due to Discover acquisition (you can see the volume impact in Oct) but adjusting for that spending trends stable including through first [--] weeks of Jan. Even with all the consumer noise the aggregate numbers continue to hold in there. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016862730733363220 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016862730733363220"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2016862730733363220)  2026-01-29T13:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap @buccocapital Agree. Structural growth story was easier when it was more evenly split PCE growth / cash to digital penetration vs mostly PCE and VAS now. Still a great business but just a different story now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2017237821845651631)  2026-01-30T14:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"TSA checkpoint year-over-year growth - recent weeks mirroring the weakness in RevPAR data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2018332754291605977)  2026-02-02T14:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@noyesclt Tom do you think $PYPL can right the ship with the right leadership Lores is another CEO with no payments experience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2018686494156660777)  2026-02-03T14:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Remember when $HIMS said on their Q3 call that they were in discussions with $NVO $NVO calling $HIMS basically the corner store drug dealer lol https://t.co/hDPgukSvX3 $NVO calling $HIMS basically the corner store drug dealer lol https://t.co/hDPgukSvX3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019502000296153595)  2026-02-05T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@inglouriouscap $IBIT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019556978058813603)  2026-02-05T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"How soon until $HIMS says we didnt need GLP-1s anyways FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality safety or effectiveness of non-approved drugs. FDA will take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs claiming they are similar to FDA-approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality safety or effectiveness of non-approved drugs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019566696428667383)  2026-02-06T00:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@matt_slotnick @gokulr @OpenAI Could be even more exciting than that other Super Bowl happening this weekend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019796356441702907)  2026-02-06T15:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lodging was a beneficiary during the [----] stimulus. The magnitude of stimulus (unless there ends up being "tariff refunds") will be lower and travel also benefited from pent up demand coming out of the pandemic so this needs to be caveated but still consumers who have been pulling back on discretionary categories are likely to increase spend with more money in their bank accounts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2001807249950298264)  2025-12-19T00:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"With lack of private distributions and strong public index returns over the last several years it seems increasingly E&F ICs will be pushing to go a similar route as UC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2015916219153399953)  2026-01-26T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Some updated US travel datapoints. US RevPAR on a trailing 3-week avg. Lapping tough comps in early Q1 '25 which likely explains recent luxury weakness but over the past few months the story remains the same - luxury has been strong economy weak and total US mmuddling along at flat. Once comps become cleaner do we see this bifurcation start to reverse some"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2018332748734173262)  2026-02-02T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"*this graph was supposed to say in millions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ottavicap/status/2019532119652057445)  2026-02-05T22:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing