[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @michaelxpettis Michael Pettis China's economic growth model is facing significant challenges, including a shift from investment-driven growth to one that is more consumption-based. The country's industrial policies, while successful in certain areas such as its EV industry, have also led to overcapacity and imbalances in the economy. Beijing is attempting to address these issues through strategic investments and stimulus policies, but experts warn that a more substantial overhaul of the growth model is needed. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::917683048782503937/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +1.30% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::917683048782503937/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX +89% - X Months XXXXX +54% - X Year XXXXX -XX% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::917683048782503937/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.21% - X Month XXXXXXX +0.62% - X Months XXXXXXX +3.10% - X Year XXXXXXX +11% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::917683048782503937/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #5261 [countries](/list/countries) XXXXX% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) XXXX% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [china](/topic/china) #635, [investment](/topic/investment) #1041, [beijing](/topic/beijing) #211, [bank](/topic/bank) #1925, [the first](/topic/the-first) 4.69%, [finance](/topic/finance) 3.13%, [status](/topic/status) 3.13%, [the world](/topic/the-world) 3.13%, [debt](/topic/debt) 3.13%, [reduce](/topic/reduce) #763 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@qingeneral86](/creator/undefined) [@may26221182](/creator/undefined) [@simonjohnbowden](/creator/undefined) [@jackfarley96](/creator/undefined) [@lukegromen](/creator/undefined) [@warrenplatts](/creator/undefined) [@dj_tao](/creator/undefined) [@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@guidomurguia](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@sagewonk](/creator/undefined) [@savanarola5](/creator/undefined) [@daslittlebodhi](/creator/undefined) [@scmpnews](/creator/undefined) [@brankomilan](/creator/undefined) [@mcnai002globalpublicgoodsandthemirandoctrine8159c654a69c](/creator/undefined) [@wsj](/creator/undefined) [@scientificecon](/creator/undefined) [@profstevekeen](/creator/undefined) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Finbarr Bermingham on Germany's industrial malaise" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997920090176823695) 2025-12-08T06:44Z 182.3K followers, 27.6K engagements "11/12 This is a good thing in the longer term and especially good for employment prospects (services tend to be more labor-intensive than manufacturing) but in the short term as Chinese businesses begin to shift production it could lead to layoffs and rising unemployment" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353037893132728) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.2K followers, 8483 engagements "12/12 So while currency appreciation would certainly benefit the economy in the longer term it's likely to be disruptive in the short term. Unfortunately the longer China waits the more dependent the economy becomes on manufacturing and so the more disruptive the adjustment" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353040195764451) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.2K followers, 8341 engagements "1/10 WSJ: "What saves American finance is the dollars status as the must-have global asset and trading currency. Both roles face challenges though and the more the U.S. exploits foreigners the higher the risk they look elsewhere." via @WSJ" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995063920143577428) 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 28.2K engagements "This is an insightful way of putting it that hadn't occurred to me before. Economists who think in terms of internally consistent models have a very different way of understanding the economy from those who think more systemically in terms of balance sheets. I'd add that perhaps Hyman Minsky's greatest contribution was his insistence that you can only understand how an economy works when you understand the interactions between both sides of an entity's balance sheet and how changes in its balance sheet are aligned or misaligned with changes in the balance sheets of other economic entities" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995067548438602208) 2025-11-30T09:49Z 182.3K followers, 80K engagements "Brendan Greeley explains that the eagerness of the world to buy US assets creates a kind of "Dutch disease" for US manufacturers and the US economy. @bhgreeley via @ft" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1943905871597384023) 2025-07-12T05:30Z 182.3K followers, 100.2K engagements "1/6 Yicai: "Agricultural Bank of China has absorbed XXX rural bank branches in northeastern Jilin province over the past month which banking industry experts see as an emerging approach for resolving credit market risks."" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1979763094105759847) 2025-10-19T04:14Z 182.3K followers, 17.8K engagements "1/8 Good FT piece on the increasing difficulty economists have in understanding correlating and reconciling Chinese economic statistics. This leads to concerns among many analysts that GDP may be overstated and fairly substantially" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1990665693402980640) 2025-11-18T06:17Z 182.3K followers, 146.8K engagements "2/12 and manufacturers are net exporters an appreciating currency is effectively an income transfer from manufacturers to households. This as former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan explained many years ago would be a very effective part of the income rebalancing process" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353017139638721) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 3869 engagements "3/12 In fact any policy that correctly rebalances the distribution of income towards more domestic consumption works the same way raising the household share of GDP by increasing wages relative to productivity raising interest rates expanding social welfare spending etc" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353019471683807) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 3495 engagements "4/12 But rebalancing through currency appreciation also shows how difficult it is to shift the structure of the economy. Chinese manufacturers are globally the most competitive in the world but they are not especially efficient. They receive the highest direct and" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353021724012671) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 4077 engagements "3/10 For those who understand accounting identities these are the three main ways foreign inflows can result in wider gap between investment and saving. When there is an increase in net foreign inflows in other words one (or some combination) of these must occur" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995063926355370180) 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 2901 engagements "4/10 As I explain elsewhere it isn't a rise in investment (the default assumption of most economists) and because a rise in unemployment is likely to set off monetary easing or fiscal expansion the inflows are most likely to increase domestic US debt" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995063929341681765) 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 3024 engagements "Imbalances are back" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995868806431080765) 2025-12-02T14:52Z 182.3K followers, 32.9K engagements "1/2 Yicai: "China issued more than CNY10 trillion in local government bonds in the first XX months of this year with about XX percent of the funds used to repay maturing obligations and hidden debts while XX percent was" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997571259262292391) 2025-12-07T07:37Z 182.3K followers, 12.7K engagements "1/3 Caixin: "For the first time since record-keeping began in 2011 secondhand home prices fell across all XX of Chinas major cities for two consecutive months a sweeping downturn that underscores the persistent strain in the countrys property market" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1989607968099156414) 2025-11-15T08:14Z 182.3K followers, 41.1K engagements "According to Yicai the average tax paid by listed Chinese companies was XXX% of revenue in 2024 down from XXXX% in 2015. Interestingly enough X% of the companies paid XX% of the total led by PetroChina Sinopec and the Big Four banks" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1990287043499594088) 2025-11-17T05:13Z 182.3K followers, 10.7K engagements "1/2 SCMP: "Shanghai is set to double down on efforts to prevent the hollowing out of its manufacturing sector even as it pursues global financial centre status." It plans to raise the manufacturing share of its GDP from XX% to XX% in the next five years" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1995070435210469522) 2025-11-30T10:00Z 182.3K followers, 31.2K engagements "Good interview of Ha-Joon Chang on the Indian economy and on developments economics more" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1993899985226920433) 2025-11-27T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 255.6K engagements "1/8 Xinhua: "China aims to "achieve a notable increase in household consumption as a share of GDP" and to increase the role of domestic demand as the principal engine of economic growth over the next five years according to the new MIIT plan"" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994270243036827961) 2025-11-28T05:00Z 182.3K followers, 50.9K engagements "Enrico Fardella and I have a new piece out on the global trade pressures facing Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1996484427434852566) 2025-12-04T07:39Z 182.3K followers, 19.3K engagements "Very interesting discussion of Liu Xiaoshus views on Chinas high and rising debt burden. One point Id make is that the cost of Chinas debt problem is unlikely to come in the form of financial crisis/bank run. As long as Chinese regulators can control the financial system and restructure liabilities at will China wont have that kind of crisis. The real cost of Chinas debt problem is more likely to come in the form of years (decades) of financial distress costs as different sectors of the economy adjust to all the implicit and explicit transfers needed to bridge the large and rising gap between" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1996538336895246814) 2025-12-04T11:13Z 182.3K followers, 74.7K engagements "4/4 The latter will effectively finance the former and overall trade will be balanced. It is only when the US is able to implement trade policies that actually reduce its overall trade deficit that these new trade patterns will become intolerable for southeast Asian economies" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997586023019352313) 2025-12-07T08:36Z 182.3K followers, 8724 engagements "1/6 Chinas exports in November rose XXX% year on year leading to a $XXXXX monthly trade surplus. A few years ago a monthly trade surplus of over $XXX billion would have seemed almost inconceivable but so far this year it has happened six times" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997910997777190941) 2025-12-08T06:07Z 182.3K followers, 18.9K engagements "FT: "Policymakers in Beijing doubt Europe has the unity or the stomach to bear the consequences of erecting new barriers to cheap and high-quality Chinese goods." via @ft" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997913363318497679) 2025-12-08T06:17Z 182.3K followers, 50.4K engagements "10/10 That's why even though most analysts inside and outside China acknowledge (even if only privately) that the RMB is very undervalued and continuing to depreciate in real terms Beijing cannot do much to revalue it meaningfully until it is willing to bear the cost" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997971432194863295) 2025-12-08T10:08Z 182.3K followers, 9518 engagements "3/4 lead to trade deficits and a declining manufacturing share. If it is serious about reversing these it must focus on economies whose expanding shares of global manufacturing are driven by rising trade surpluses not on those with low manufacturing shares and trade deficits" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997986027991142896) 2025-12-08T11:06Z 182.3K followers, 2479 engagements "1/4 Reuters: "The European Commission is set to make proposals next month to bolster EU industry with requirements to prioritise locally manufactured goods that would reduce its reliance on imports from China."" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998230175168020532) 2025-12-09T03:16Z 182.3K followers, 17.7K engagements "Very good Keith Bradsher article on the undervaluation that dare not speak its name" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998231006122508656) 2025-12-09T03:19Z 182.3K followers, 32K engagements "3/4 I credited the stable or rising prices between July and October to the fight against involution but expected deflation to resume early next year as investment shifted out of the involuted manufacturing sectors to the non-involuted sectors" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998664313532461297) 2025-12-10T08:01Z 182.3K followers, 6258 engagements "1/4 The IMF formally recognizes that it is a depreciating RMB not rising manufacturing efficiency that drives China's growing trade surplus" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998671486735765820) 2025-12-10T08:29Z 182.3K followers, 39.2K engagements "@l_nehru_1947 In a financial system in which most households save in the form of bank deposits and most lending is to investment and production forcing down interest rates is among the most powerful ways of transferring income from households to subsidize manufacturing and investment" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998676058732691576) 2025-12-10T08:48Z 182.3K followers, 2120 engagements "2/3 In May I wrote a piece for China Reform Imperative arguing that all these forecasts would rise over 2025 and would eventually converge to X% by the end of the year. In fact that's exactly what happened" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998973376325661105) 2025-12-11T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 4361 engagements "1/12 Weijian Shan is right: China does need to let the renminbi rise and substantially. An appreciating currency would "subsidize" imports and "tax" exports the opposite of what tariffs are supposed to do. Given that households are net importers" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1994353014597922986) 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 58.9K engagements "1/4 FT: "Chinese exports to the six largest economies in south-east Asia Indonesia Singapore Thailand the Philippines Vietnam and Malaysia have doubled over the past" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997586011401130086) 2025-12-07T08:36Z 182.3K followers, 26.6K engagements "FT: "These imbalances are becoming unbearable Macron said at a joint appearance with Xi in Beijing on Thursday. We are at the last stop before a crisis a French official warned." via @ft" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997586618820243902) 2025-12-07T08:38Z 182.3K followers, 72.3K engagements "1/6 Emmanuel Macron: "Today we are caught between the US and China and it is a matter of life or death for the European industry. We have become the adjustment market and this is the worst-case scenario." He is absolutely right" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997886472335302702) 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 120.1K engagements "3/6 necessarily be exported to and absorbed by those of their trade partners that chose not to control their external accounts. It also means that the latter must end up with domestic imbalances that accommodate the domestic imbalances of the former" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997886476714205405) 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 10.2K engagements "6/6 That's why the only stable trading systems involve either a)all countries choosing global integration over economic sovereignty b)penalties against countries that use trade to export their domestic imbalances or c)all countries controlling their external accounts" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997886487023825333) 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 14.6K engagements "1/10 Keith Bradsher: "A growing number of economists and business leaders including former senior officials at Chinas own central bank are calling on Beijing to let the renminbi increase in value against the dollar and other currencies."" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1997971361394995391) 2025-12-08T10:07Z 182.3K followers, 22.1K engagements "2/4 month changes CPI prices were actually down XXX% month on month in November. Even that was flattered by higher food prices caused by bad weather and a surge in gold prices that drove the miscellaneous goods and services category up by more than 14%" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998664308012757465) 2025-12-10T08:01Z 182.3K followers, 1403 engagements "I don't know much about the underground dance scene in China the music scene I follow is very different but I thought this article gave an interesting view of a less visible part of contemporary Chinese culture" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998771354045444178) 2025-12-10T15:06Z 182.3K followers, 46.8K engagements "1/3 At the beginning of 2025 the IMF forecast China's GDP growth in 2025 to be 4.5%. During the year it revised the forecast up to XXX% XXX% and now to 5.0%. Other banks followed a similar pattern often forecasting even lower GDP growth rates" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1998973371154051254) 2025-12-11T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 6276 engagements "1/2 Fixed-asset investment in China's railway sector was up XXX% in the first XX months of 2025. I expect we'll see a similar or even larger increase in 2026 not because China's excellent and already-extensive railway system needs to be expanded but" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1999011102710182009) 2025-12-11T06:59Z 182.3K followers, 3976 engagements "2/2 rather because if China is to meet GDP growth targets it must find areas in which to increase investment and given general overinvestment in infrastructure manufacturing and property expanding the railway system may be among the least nonproductive ways to do do" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1999011108318003682) 2025-12-11T06:59Z 182.3K followers, 3062 engagements "Robin Brooks on China's undervalued RMB. This isn't a new idea for Brooks but it seems like the November XX OMFIF paper by Brad Setser and Mark Sobel marked a change in the overall narrative. @robin_j_brooks" [X Link](https://x.com/michaelxpettis/status/1999022396595212653) 2025-12-11T07:44Z 182.3K followers, 3669 engagements
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@michaelxpettis Michael Pettis
China's economic growth model is facing significant challenges, including a shift from investment-driven growth to one that is more consumption-based. The country's industrial policies, while successful in certain areas such as its EV industry, have also led to overcapacity and imbalances in the economy. Beijing is attempting to address these issues through strategic investments and stimulus policies, but experts warn that a more substantial overhaul of the growth model is needed.
Engagements: XXXXXX #
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- X Month XXXXXXXXX -XX%
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- X Week XX -XX%
- X Month XXX +89%
- X Months XXXXX +54%
- X Year XXXXX -XX%
Followers: XXXXXXX #
- X Week XXXXXXX +0.21%
- X Month XXXXXXX +0.62%
- X Months XXXXXXX +3.10%
- X Year XXXXXXX +11%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #5261 countries XXXXX% travel destinations XXXX% technology brands XXXX%
Social topic influence china #635, investment #1041, beijing #211, bank #1925, the first 4.69%, finance 3.13%, status 3.13%, the world 3.13%, debt 3.13%, reduce #763
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ft @qingeneral86 @may26221182 @simonjohnbowden @jackfarley96 @lukegromen @warrenplatts @dj_tao @ericfine123 @guidomurguia @grok @sagewonk @savanarola5 @daslittlebodhi @scmpnews @brankomilan @mcnai002globalpublicgoodsandthemirandoctrine8159c654a69c @wsj @scientificecon @profstevekeen
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Finbarr Bermingham on Germany's industrial malaise"
X Link 2025-12-08T06:44Z 182.3K followers, 27.6K engagements
"11/12 This is a good thing in the longer term and especially good for employment prospects (services tend to be more labor-intensive than manufacturing) but in the short term as Chinese businesses begin to shift production it could lead to layoffs and rising unemployment"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.2K followers, 8483 engagements
"12/12 So while currency appreciation would certainly benefit the economy in the longer term it's likely to be disruptive in the short term. Unfortunately the longer China waits the more dependent the economy becomes on manufacturing and so the more disruptive the adjustment"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.2K followers, 8341 engagements
"1/10 WSJ: "What saves American finance is the dollars status as the must-have global asset and trading currency. Both roles face challenges though and the more the U.S. exploits foreigners the higher the risk they look elsewhere." via @WSJ"
X Link 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 28.2K engagements
"This is an insightful way of putting it that hadn't occurred to me before. Economists who think in terms of internally consistent models have a very different way of understanding the economy from those who think more systemically in terms of balance sheets. I'd add that perhaps Hyman Minsky's greatest contribution was his insistence that you can only understand how an economy works when you understand the interactions between both sides of an entity's balance sheet and how changes in its balance sheet are aligned or misaligned with changes in the balance sheets of other economic entities"
X Link 2025-11-30T09:49Z 182.3K followers, 80K engagements
"Brendan Greeley explains that the eagerness of the world to buy US assets creates a kind of "Dutch disease" for US manufacturers and the US economy. @bhgreeley via @ft"
X Link 2025-07-12T05:30Z 182.3K followers, 100.2K engagements
"1/6 Yicai: "Agricultural Bank of China has absorbed XXX rural bank branches in northeastern Jilin province over the past month which banking industry experts see as an emerging approach for resolving credit market risks.""
X Link 2025-10-19T04:14Z 182.3K followers, 17.8K engagements
"1/8 Good FT piece on the increasing difficulty economists have in understanding correlating and reconciling Chinese economic statistics. This leads to concerns among many analysts that GDP may be overstated and fairly substantially"
X Link 2025-11-18T06:17Z 182.3K followers, 146.8K engagements
"2/12 and manufacturers are net exporters an appreciating currency is effectively an income transfer from manufacturers to households. This as former PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan explained many years ago would be a very effective part of the income rebalancing process"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 3869 engagements
"3/12 In fact any policy that correctly rebalances the distribution of income towards more domestic consumption works the same way raising the household share of GDP by increasing wages relative to productivity raising interest rates expanding social welfare spending etc"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 3495 engagements
"4/12 But rebalancing through currency appreciation also shows how difficult it is to shift the structure of the economy. Chinese manufacturers are globally the most competitive in the world but they are not especially efficient. They receive the highest direct and"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 4077 engagements
"3/10 For those who understand accounting identities these are the three main ways foreign inflows can result in wider gap between investment and saving. When there is an increase in net foreign inflows in other words one (or some combination) of these must occur"
X Link 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 2901 engagements
"4/10 As I explain elsewhere it isn't a rise in investment (the default assumption of most economists) and because a rise in unemployment is likely to set off monetary easing or fiscal expansion the inflows are most likely to increase domestic US debt"
X Link 2025-11-30T09:34Z 182.3K followers, 3024 engagements
"Imbalances are back"
X Link 2025-12-02T14:52Z 182.3K followers, 32.9K engagements
"1/2 Yicai: "China issued more than CNY10 trillion in local government bonds in the first XX months of this year with about XX percent of the funds used to repay maturing obligations and hidden debts while XX percent was"
X Link 2025-12-07T07:37Z 182.3K followers, 12.7K engagements
"1/3 Caixin: "For the first time since record-keeping began in 2011 secondhand home prices fell across all XX of Chinas major cities for two consecutive months a sweeping downturn that underscores the persistent strain in the countrys property market"
X Link 2025-11-15T08:14Z 182.3K followers, 41.1K engagements
"According to Yicai the average tax paid by listed Chinese companies was XXX% of revenue in 2024 down from XXXX% in 2015. Interestingly enough X% of the companies paid XX% of the total led by PetroChina Sinopec and the Big Four banks"
X Link 2025-11-17T05:13Z 182.3K followers, 10.7K engagements
"1/2 SCMP: "Shanghai is set to double down on efforts to prevent the hollowing out of its manufacturing sector even as it pursues global financial centre status." It plans to raise the manufacturing share of its GDP from XX% to XX% in the next five years"
X Link 2025-11-30T10:00Z 182.3K followers, 31.2K engagements
"Good interview of Ha-Joon Chang on the Indian economy and on developments economics more"
X Link 2025-11-27T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 255.6K engagements
"1/8 Xinhua: "China aims to "achieve a notable increase in household consumption as a share of GDP" and to increase the role of domestic demand as the principal engine of economic growth over the next five years according to the new MIIT plan""
X Link 2025-11-28T05:00Z 182.3K followers, 50.9K engagements
"Enrico Fardella and I have a new piece out on the global trade pressures facing Europe"
X Link 2025-12-04T07:39Z 182.3K followers, 19.3K engagements
"Very interesting discussion of Liu Xiaoshus views on Chinas high and rising debt burden. One point Id make is that the cost of Chinas debt problem is unlikely to come in the form of financial crisis/bank run. As long as Chinese regulators can control the financial system and restructure liabilities at will China wont have that kind of crisis. The real cost of Chinas debt problem is more likely to come in the form of years (decades) of financial distress costs as different sectors of the economy adjust to all the implicit and explicit transfers needed to bridge the large and rising gap between"
X Link 2025-12-04T11:13Z 182.3K followers, 74.7K engagements
"4/4 The latter will effectively finance the former and overall trade will be balanced. It is only when the US is able to implement trade policies that actually reduce its overall trade deficit that these new trade patterns will become intolerable for southeast Asian economies"
X Link 2025-12-07T08:36Z 182.3K followers, 8724 engagements
"1/6 Chinas exports in November rose XXX% year on year leading to a $XXXXX monthly trade surplus. A few years ago a monthly trade surplus of over $XXX billion would have seemed almost inconceivable but so far this year it has happened six times"
X Link 2025-12-08T06:07Z 182.3K followers, 18.9K engagements
"FT: "Policymakers in Beijing doubt Europe has the unity or the stomach to bear the consequences of erecting new barriers to cheap and high-quality Chinese goods." via @ft"
X Link 2025-12-08T06:17Z 182.3K followers, 50.4K engagements
"10/10 That's why even though most analysts inside and outside China acknowledge (even if only privately) that the RMB is very undervalued and continuing to depreciate in real terms Beijing cannot do much to revalue it meaningfully until it is willing to bear the cost"
X Link 2025-12-08T10:08Z 182.3K followers, 9518 engagements
"3/4 lead to trade deficits and a declining manufacturing share. If it is serious about reversing these it must focus on economies whose expanding shares of global manufacturing are driven by rising trade surpluses not on those with low manufacturing shares and trade deficits"
X Link 2025-12-08T11:06Z 182.3K followers, 2479 engagements
"1/4 Reuters: "The European Commission is set to make proposals next month to bolster EU industry with requirements to prioritise locally manufactured goods that would reduce its reliance on imports from China.""
X Link 2025-12-09T03:16Z 182.3K followers, 17.7K engagements
"Very good Keith Bradsher article on the undervaluation that dare not speak its name"
X Link 2025-12-09T03:19Z 182.3K followers, 32K engagements
"3/4 I credited the stable or rising prices between July and October to the fight against involution but expected deflation to resume early next year as investment shifted out of the involuted manufacturing sectors to the non-involuted sectors"
X Link 2025-12-10T08:01Z 182.3K followers, 6258 engagements
"1/4 The IMF formally recognizes that it is a depreciating RMB not rising manufacturing efficiency that drives China's growing trade surplus"
X Link 2025-12-10T08:29Z 182.3K followers, 39.2K engagements
"@l_nehru_1947 In a financial system in which most households save in the form of bank deposits and most lending is to investment and production forcing down interest rates is among the most powerful ways of transferring income from households to subsidize manufacturing and investment"
X Link 2025-12-10T08:48Z 182.3K followers, 2120 engagements
"2/3 In May I wrote a piece for China Reform Imperative arguing that all these forecasts would rise over 2025 and would eventually converge to X% by the end of the year. In fact that's exactly what happened"
X Link 2025-12-11T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 4361 engagements
"1/12 Weijian Shan is right: China does need to let the renminbi rise and substantially. An appreciating currency would "subsidize" imports and "tax" exports the opposite of what tariffs are supposed to do. Given that households are net importers"
X Link 2025-11-28T10:29Z 182.3K followers, 58.9K engagements
"1/4 FT: "Chinese exports to the six largest economies in south-east Asia Indonesia Singapore Thailand the Philippines Vietnam and Malaysia have doubled over the past"
X Link 2025-12-07T08:36Z 182.3K followers, 26.6K engagements
"FT: "These imbalances are becoming unbearable Macron said at a joint appearance with Xi in Beijing on Thursday. We are at the last stop before a crisis a French official warned." via @ft"
X Link 2025-12-07T08:38Z 182.3K followers, 72.3K engagements
"1/6 Emmanuel Macron: "Today we are caught between the US and China and it is a matter of life or death for the European industry. We have become the adjustment market and this is the worst-case scenario." He is absolutely right"
X Link 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 120.1K engagements
"3/6 necessarily be exported to and absorbed by those of their trade partners that chose not to control their external accounts. It also means that the latter must end up with domestic imbalances that accommodate the domestic imbalances of the former"
X Link 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 10.2K engagements
"6/6 That's why the only stable trading systems involve either a)all countries choosing global integration over economic sovereignty b)penalties against countries that use trade to export their domestic imbalances or c)all countries controlling their external accounts"
X Link 2025-12-08T04:30Z 182.3K followers, 14.6K engagements
"1/10 Keith Bradsher: "A growing number of economists and business leaders including former senior officials at Chinas own central bank are calling on Beijing to let the renminbi increase in value against the dollar and other currencies.""
X Link 2025-12-08T10:07Z 182.3K followers, 22.1K engagements
"2/4 month changes CPI prices were actually down XXX% month on month in November. Even that was flattered by higher food prices caused by bad weather and a surge in gold prices that drove the miscellaneous goods and services category up by more than 14%"
X Link 2025-12-10T08:01Z 182.3K followers, 1403 engagements
"I don't know much about the underground dance scene in China the music scene I follow is very different but I thought this article gave an interesting view of a less visible part of contemporary Chinese culture"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:06Z 182.3K followers, 46.8K engagements
"1/3 At the beginning of 2025 the IMF forecast China's GDP growth in 2025 to be 4.5%. During the year it revised the forecast up to XXX% XXX% and now to 5.0%. Other banks followed a similar pattern often forecasting even lower GDP growth rates"
X Link 2025-12-11T04:29Z 182.3K followers, 6276 engagements
"1/2 Fixed-asset investment in China's railway sector was up XXX% in the first XX months of 2025. I expect we'll see a similar or even larger increase in 2026 not because China's excellent and already-extensive railway system needs to be expanded but"
X Link 2025-12-11T06:59Z 182.3K followers, 3976 engagements
"2/2 rather because if China is to meet GDP growth targets it must find areas in which to increase investment and given general overinvestment in infrastructure manufacturing and property expanding the railway system may be among the least nonproductive ways to do do"
X Link 2025-12-11T06:59Z 182.3K followers, 3062 engagements
"Robin Brooks on China's undervalued RMB. This isn't a new idea for Brooks but it seems like the November XX OMFIF paper by Brad Setser and Mark Sobel marked a change in the overall narrative. @robin_j_brooks"
X Link 2025-12-11T07:44Z 182.3K followers, 3669 engagements