# ![@marginofdanger Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1592654819147149312.png) @marginofdanger marginofdanger

marginofdanger posts on X about $hhh, in the, nav, $fph the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1592654819147149312/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1592654819147149312/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +222%
- [--] Month [------] +4.50%
- [--] Months [-------] -44%
- [--] Year [-------] -36%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1592654819147149312/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1592654819147149312/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -40%
- [--] Month [--] -34%
- [--] Months [---] +9.40%
- [--] Year [---] +17%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1592654819147149312/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1592654819147149312/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.04%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +8.50%
- [--] Year [-----] +35%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1592654819147149312/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1592654819147149312/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  37.84% [stocks](/list/stocks)  9.01% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  6.31% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1.8% [gaming](/list/gaming)  0.9% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.9% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.9%

**Social topic influence**
[$hhh](/topic/$hhh) 23.42%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 14.41%, [nav](/topic/nav) 13.51%, [$fph](/topic/$fph) 11.71%, [company](/topic/company) 11.71%, [$seg](/topic/$seg) 7.21%, [$200mm](/topic/$200mm) #1, [trade](/topic/trade) 6.31%, [debt](/topic/debt) 6.31%, [$bwel](/topic/$bwel) 5.41%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@ron284ron](/creator/undefined) [@ragingventures](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@linglingfool](/creator/undefined) [@philtimyan](/creator/undefined) [@thebankzhar](/creator/undefined) [@colarion](/creator/undefined) [@ourbank3](/creator/undefined) [@odddiligence](/creator/undefined) [@howardhugheshq](/creator/undefined) [@davidoreillyhh](/creator/undefined) [@skiingswimming1](/creator/undefined) [@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@leveredvalue](/creator/undefined) [@stocksoddball](/creator/undefined) [@thepupil11](/creator/undefined) [@dirtcheapbanks](/creator/undefined) [@hootrm3](/creator/undefined) [@solerabank](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)](/topic/$hhh) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)](/topic/$sphr) [Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)](/topic/$wba) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ)](/topic/$niq) [Vistra, Corp. (VST)](/topic/$vst)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"If anyone involved in $NIQ $NID wants to compare notes on the $VST deal please send me a message"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1836782167646429591)  2024-09-19T14:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting situation at $TIPT (@ $19/share). Holdco w/ mgmt selling all operating assets (mostly an insurance biz called Fortegra). Pro forma NAV/share (virtually all cash/treasuries) will be $24+/share and reflects all deal fees and taxes. Insiders own 40% of the company and a director recently bought stock in the low 18s. Mgmt could either return the cash or they may buy another asset. Post sale overhead should be significantly less than interest income on the cash pile. I think this goes to $22 on the completion of the asset sale and possibly $24+ when the cash is deployed. There is a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1989426572953284649)  2025-11-14T20:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TIPT stock has dipped below $18/share post the shareholder vote to approve the Fortegra sale. My gut feeling is that Veradace and maybe some other likeminded shareholders are punting. As a reminder pro forma tangible book value per share is $24.60/share once the sale closes in mid [----]. Expect another [--] months for management to deploy the cash into an insurance company acquisition (or something else). If we assume this converges to TBV by 12/31/26 the IRR is 36%. If we assume this converges to 90% of TBV by 6/30/27 the IRR is 15%. Pretty good risk/reward with pro forma cash providing 1.4x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1998529472447000693)  2025-12-09T23:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A framework for thinking about special situations: 1) Brand new / uncovered. No write-ups anywhere the situation just presented itself (news spin etc.). These are the best situations to get involved with. A good example of this would be the $SPHR spinoff $TIPT or $WBA CVRs (DAPs). 2) Picked over. Multiple write-ups on various platforms possibly traded up already and offer return potential. Sometimes these are good (but not as good as when they are fresh) and you need to be mindful that you're providing the earliest investors exit liquidity. 90%+ of tickers that you see on X fall into this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2008603794280771828)  2026-01-06T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BWEL share count down by 7k since 6/30/25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2012220435480408152)  2026-01-16T17:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"USDA publishes its January [----] tomato report. Notably tomato processors contracted volumes are down 11%. Should bode well for $BWEL. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Tomatoes/2026/PTOMInt_0126.pdf https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Tomatoes/2026/PTOMInt_0126.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2016537759931113850)  2026-01-28T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There are a lot of moving pieces behind the scenes here. They are very focused on being as capital light as possible and they bought Hearthstone to help facilitate the financing of both Valencia and SF off balance sheet. Both projects have a regulatory angle and they're working to get JVs in place. They also don't want to be constrained on timing so they want maximum liquidity. They are definitely conservatively positioned and should be in a position to return capital as the visibility around how they are going to finance gets clearer. I would be legitimately shocked if they don't start"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2017266128746319892)  2026-01-30T15:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"New CEO seems solid did a really good job in the East region. $CBBI performance has been roughly in line with its LA Korean peers but its valuation is significantly lower bc of lack of trading liquidity OTC listing and obstinance on stock buyback. There is no room for activism here given the holder base / control. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018069892478681449 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018069892478681449"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2018069892478681449)  2026-02-01T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@linglingfool Yeah it was a special situation. The event happened and now its in a weird purgatory until they return the cash or buy another asset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2011220971794092230)  2026-01-13T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$FPH announces deal with Blue Owl whereby Blue Owl receives warrants for 1% of $FPH at a $7/share price subject to investing between $500mm and $1.7bn into land banking partnerships. Assume that Blue Owl could help financing Valencia and SF. Bullish https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001574197/000119312526044747/d56670d8k.htm https://www.sec.gov/ixdoc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001574197/000119312526044747/d56670d8k.htm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2021335398820216900)  2026-02-10T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Will be interesting to hear exactly how Blue Owl with $300bn+ of AUM will help finance $FPH's projects. Really hope this accelerates the return of the $400mm+ of balance sheet cash to shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2021344533691461675)  2026-02-10T22:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Addendum- here's my NAV (it doesn't exactly tie to my $10-15/share as I'm being a bit conservative against these): Irvine ($920mm): [---] residential acres at $10mm/acre = $1.8bn * 40% effective O/S = $720mm. [---] commercial acres at $5mm = $500mm * 40% = $200mm. Valencia: 5k acres in LA county at $300k per acre = $1.5bn. Lower valuation reflects higher costs to grade and zoning. Supported by a [--] year DCF and could be much higher. SF: [---] acres of developable land at Candlestick worth $5-10mm/acre or $500mm-1bn. Excludes any value from Tetra Tech litigation or Hunters Point. Other: They own 16k"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1873849237173051853)  2024-12-30T21:50Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements


"If a company that trades at a large discount to intrinsic value signalled that it was going to sell how much should it be up Well in the case of $FMBL the answer is: "not at all". But in fairness the signal was very subtle and $FMBL is an illiquid stock. And most people aren't paying attention. But I am This week the company sent out proxies for its [----] annual meeting with two very revealing items (see attached) namely reducing the voting threshold on a sale of the company from 80% to 65%. $FMBL family owned and essentially run like a private company for over [---] years has always been known"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1958310064672158096)  2025-08-20T23:27Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"Re: $FMBL @thepupil11 gets credit for pointing out this very interesting paragraph from the [--] page proxy doc. Seems like a $200mm potential preferred equity investment at economic equivalent of $12300/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1958615167622946842)  2025-08-21T19:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some signs of life at $SLRK. Wondering why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1982949371516960902)  2025-10-27T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Must be extreme fatigue in the $BOIVF structure when leak of judge decision causes Vivendi stock to go down 20% (good for Bollore) and $BOIVF has zero reaction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1991935200855732383)  2025-11-21T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This year I present a handful of my top ideas for [----] (in alphabetical order of tickers). Some of these names are fairly uncorrelated with the market (and a few definitely are not). As a reminder please do your own work and be mindful of the low trading liquidity in many of these. $BWEL JG Boswell at $459/share (LOW RISK / HIGH REWARD) JG Boswell has been the deep value stock that even the most disciplined investors have lost patience with (including yours truly). Despite the last year being horrible for both tomatoes and cotton $BWEL put up $40mm of adj. EBITDA. It is extremely rare for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2006522995335115038)  2026-01-01T00:28Z [----] followers, 19.7K engagements


"@dirtcheapbanks $SLRK the one branch wonder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2017438581594460457)  2026-01-31T03:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I am very intrigued by $MTN. It's a portfolio of irreplaceable assets. Beneficiary of a growing affluent class. It's essentially real estate but it doesn't qualify for REIT status bc it doesn't control the land through ownership or a leasehold interest but through a use permit (essentially). Would trade at a much higher multiple if it were a REIT but doesn't really have a logical shareholder base and there are no other public comps (Alterra is private). Valuation looks reasonable and despite the snow conditions being awful this year the numbers aren't atrocious."  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2011876802160124278)  2026-01-15T19:03Z [----] followers, 18.8K engagements


"$HHH Friday PM news. Still going through this but this lawsuit paints a damning picture of Ackman and the Special Committee in the process to give Ackman control. I'm not sure if this case has merit nor what the remedy would be but pretty interesting nonetheless. https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rss.vSVh8Qzo/v0 https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rss.vSVh8Qzo/v0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/2022473111208439892)  2026-02-14T00:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$OPBK just announced a new buyback program of 750k shares (5% of total O/S). These LA-based Korean banks are so cheap. $CBBI $HAFC $PCB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1696264499115016302)  2023-08-28T20:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There are some mortgage REITs out there that are trading at 30-40%+ discounts to book with low leverage low office exposure and ethical sponsors. Seem interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1700285619828662475)  2023-09-08T23:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ $VTDRF is an OTC listed offshore driller with 2x 6G drillships and 2x jack-ups. They also manage [--] other vessels with a minor cash stream. I posit that $VTDRF is not only the cheapest offshore driller but it has the highest likelihood of a monetization event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1707170093812330724)  2023-09-27T23:07Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"@OurBank3 @hootrm3 @solerabank Serious q is mgmt at $SLRK so bad The numbers are kind of great. Its primarily the valuation that sucks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1707598697977229685)  2023-09-29T03:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Ackman continues to buy up to [-----] shares a day of $HHH when stock is below $75. Been trading below $70. Company announced it would spin off its Seaport and other related assets this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1710426981693890790)  2023-10-06T22:49Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements


""Conservative" NAV from $FRPH mgmt just hit the tape"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1712119917494095919)  2023-10-11T14:56Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements


"Ackman today showed that he can move a trillion $ treasury mkt w/ a tweet. Meanwhile he adds to $HHH every day (confirmed with public form [--] filings) where his edge is much stronger (given he's chairman and been around the biz for two decades) and no one seems to care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1716526082084733178)  2023-10-23T18:44Z [----] followers, 14.7K engagements


"1/ Most are very familiar w/ the ECIP thesis. More recently the trade has taken multiple steps back due to trading illiquidity + the $KRE selloff. Within the group there is one bank edging itself above the others: $UBAB $8/share annualized current earnings vs. a $38 stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1719061637695774835)  2023-10-30T18:40Z [----] followers, 17K engagements


"Value-trap P/NAV discounts often coincide w/: 1) ignoring high G&A expenses or mgmt fees 2) mgmt track record of destroying value 3) high financial and/or operating leverage 4) overstated NAV 5) tax leakage I found a name that is [--] for [--]. Will be posting a write-up soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1719775638448685373)  2023-11-01T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CRH is buying $MLM cement assets in TX for $2.1bn vs. $170mm of EBITDA or 12.4x EBITDA. Implies close to $300/share for $MCEM which is $145/150"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1726991576092889463)  2023-11-21T15:50Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements


"1/ $CCIF is a CEF w/ 30% expected IRR in next year as the new sponsor (Carlyle) completes its portfolio repositioning to CLO equity. Basic stats: NAV: $8.20 Stock: $7.48 (91% of NAV) Dividend: 10c/month / 16% yield Sponsor: Carlyle manages + owns 40% cc: @boazweinstein"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1727779567744790807)  2023-11-23T20:02Z [----] followers, 19K engagements


"I am a bit surprised at how few accounts on X regularly post interesting investment ideas. Maybe I'm missing the right follows. Quality ideas here seem few and far between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1729171271534211331)  2023-11-27T16:12Z [----] followers, 43.4K engagements


"Ackman continuesto add to $HHH every single trading day. He's at 37.3% o/s + capped out at 40%. He thinks its worth 2x the shareprice + has $1.4bn in it (10%+ of his fund where he's the largest LP). Just filed: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981792/000119312523284358/d577307dsc13da.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1981792/000119312523284358/d577307dsc13da.htm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1729627606482575867)  2023-11-28T22:25Z [----] followers, 33.2K engagements


"$LMNR is +20% today on strategic alternatives announced implying $400mm TEV on 13.8k acres or $30k/acre. $BWEL has 10x the farmland (130k acres) and a $600mm TEV. https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1721689101488013540s=20 https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1721689101488013540s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1730691004750234077)  2023-12-01T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MCEM Q423 results looks great and EV/EBITDA under 6x vs. peers in teens. Business was sold out and passed along higher pricing (and will do so again in 2024). Lot of smart capex to reduce costs in the future and grow the business. Love the board photo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1768669274716115342)  2024-03-15T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ $HHH is -28% YTD at $61.57. Ackman put in $500mm at $50/share during COVID and had been buying up to $75/share very recently. Upside here if $HHH reaches: Ackman's recent $75 buy price: +21% Investor day NAV of $109 assuming Seaport is a zero: +77% My NAV of $125: +103%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1779985674139279645)  2024-04-15T21:30Z [----] followers, 51.3K engagements


"Pershings historical ownership of $HHH. Been involved for at least [--] years. Their position is about 4x larger in shares at half the price as compared to when Ackman pitched this as a top idea at [----] Ira Sohn No I dont think hes a seller here. https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/05/08140311/FINAL-Ira-Sohn-Presentation-2017.05.08_Final-Sohn.pdf https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/05/08140311/FINAL-Ira-Sohn-Presentation-2017.05.08_Final-Sohn.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1780350212030009552)  2024-04-16T21:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ Since its very hard to figure out what value has been created at $HHH I figured Id give it a stab. Comments welcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1781391036583157904)  2024-04-19T18:34Z [----] followers, 46K engagements


"Nice results out of $MCEM. EBITDA up 21% yoy. Still one of the cheapest high quality OTC names out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1788247445287412220)  2024-05-08T16:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ $CBOBA an ECIP bank is getting acquired for $14/share in cash. TBVPS (at 12/31/23) was $9/share and $20/share assuming ECIP pref worth 20% of face. Unlike some of the ECIP banks $CBOBA's CEO has a history of value creation and has sold other banks successfully"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1792707290216435822)  2024-05-21T00:01Z [----] followers, 15.5K engagements


"1/ $JACK is a franchisor of the Jack-in-the-Box ("JITB") and Del Taco ("DT") collectively [----] restaurants. JITB and DT are 94% and 71% franchised respectively. $JACK closed at $52.45 and mgmt just updated FY24E EPS guidance to $6.25-6.40 (8.3x P/E at the midpoint)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793065851761111216)  2024-05-21T23:46Z [----] followers, 131.8K engagements


"4/ $JACK's core JITB asset is a crown jewel asset: [---] year old brand -$2mm systemwide AUVs -low 20s store level margins -high market share in its west coast market -94% franchised -nearly all stores owned or subleased to franchisees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1793065859042488613)  2024-05-21T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"5/ $JACK's DT asset is not a crown jewel but was acquired in [----] for $575mm or 7.5x EBITDA before synergies. $JACK is refranchising DT to turn it into a royalty stream like JITB. There are also synergies of having a second concept with a similar geographic footprint to JITB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1793065860820787596)  2024-05-21T23:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I don't love sellside research but on the theme of finding needles in the busted SPAC haystick $GFR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1801272249158443251)  2024-06-13T15:15Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements


"1/ $PSUS seems like it's on life support as @BillAckman fessed up in a public filing that he only expects to refile with $2.5-4bn which leads me to believe that he has less than $2.5bn in order of which a decent amount must be friends/family and a few existing relationships"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1816475740768174399)  2024-07-25T14:08Z [----] followers, 30.9K engagements


"$HHH here we go()"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821004717486751816)  2024-08-07T02:05Z [----] followers, 37.8K engagements


"$HHH If you listen to @BillAckman he has shown admiration for Buffett + the structure at $BRK/A with operating + investment biz together. My take is that $PSUS failed $PSHZF discount widening + somehow this move is motivated by a desire to score a win and have a Berkshire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1821174713659634091)  2024-08-07T13:21Z [----] followers, 12.3K engagements


"$HHH has a long history of giving NAVs well in excess of its current price and IR has acknowledged that the office cap rates are very conservative. Seems like it would be difficult for board to accept a lowball bid. And any proposal would require approval of the non-Pershing shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1821550149220581658)  2024-08-08T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thoughts on $HHH Does anyone realistically think @BillAckman would be the best bid for a collection of highly strategic easy-to-understand real estate assets A large chunk of $HHH value is NOI-generating CRE - VERY easy to value. The land bank is more complicated however there are plenty of folks like Blackstone Pretium et al. that have a much lower cost of capital than Pershing. I think this is actually Ackman creating a bit of a win-win situation for himself. Either: [--]. Bid $85-90 a share and no one else shows up. Board accepts and immediately bank a $20-30/share+ uplift in day [--] PNL post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823741265785262364)  2024-08-14T15:19Z [----] followers, 25.7K engagements


"$SEG Seaport Entertainment Group a recent spin-off from $HHH (as of 8/1/24) is an incredibly compelling risk/reward here at $26/share. $SEG has a binding commitment from Pershing Square (37.5% holder) to backstop a $175mm rights offering at $25/share thru 10/25/24. The only out is an MAE and Pershing is not taking a fee on the backstop. $SEG is expected to launch the rights offering in the next few weeks after it files its 10-Q and finishes a non-deal roadshow with investors. How did we get here $HHH decided to spin off $SEG in [----] given the Seaport's significant operating losses which were"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1826004559078281680)  2024-08-20T21:13Z [----] followers, 87.9K engagements


"$SEG filed its 10-Q after the close today. This was the gating item before launching the rights offering. Should be imminent. https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1826004559078281680 $SEG Seaport Entertainment Group a recent spin-off from $HHH (as of 8/1/24) is an incredibly compelling risk/reward here at $26/share. $SEG has a binding commitment from Pershing Square (37.5% holder) to backstop a $175mm rights offering at $25/share thru 10/25/24. The only https://t.co/PmaNnSMX0x https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1826004559078281680 $SEG Seaport Entertainment Group a recent spin-off from $HHH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1826753989796659433)  2024-08-22T22:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SEG rights offering record date is 9/20 rights will be tradeable until 10/9 and rights offering deadline will be 10/10. $SEG Seaport Entertainment Group a recent spin-off from $HHH (as of 8/1/24) is an incredibly compelling risk/reward here at $26/share. $SEG has a binding commitment from Pershing Square (37.5% holder) to backstop a $175mm rights offering at $25/share thru 10/25/24. The only https://t.co/PmaNnSMX0x $SEG Seaport Entertainment Group a recent spin-off from $HHH (as of 8/1/24) is an incredibly compelling risk/reward here at $26/share. $SEG has a binding commitment from Pershing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1835709082910789793)  2024-09-16T15:55Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements


"@marcelolima Spirit is not going anywhere. Just change of ownership to creditors. Not the governments job to bail out overleveraged companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1842258282125345242)  2024-10-04T17:39Z [----] followers, 22.7K engagements


"$LOGC is a shell w/ $6/sh in net cash trading at $6/sh w/ $3bn of NOLs. Mgmt's stated goal is to find an acquisition to monetize the NOL. Risk is that they burn cash on chase costs but upside is they find something and stock goes $8-10/share. I like the asymmetry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1842950071387840925)  2024-10-06T15:28Z [----] followers, 20.8K engagements


"At one point $SPHR was really interesting. This was right when it was spun off. You could have gone long $SPHR and short $MSGE and created the Sphere for almost free. Now the trade is long in the tooth and the Dolan factor is coming into play. Meanwhile $SEG is at a similar point in its spin as $SPHR was when it was a no brainer trade. The $SEG rights offering closes in two days and then shortly thereafter management can start telling the story to the street and not being limited by the limited info in the form [---]. cc: @kevinlmak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1843666240574750732)  2024-10-08T14:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@LakeShowYo Where are the Knicks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1844091948363284541)  2024-10-09T19:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing people talk only about the positives and completely ignore the negatives. This is not really an institutional sector anymore - meaning the principal players are hedge funds and retail - so think about who is going to provide the liquidity on the other side of YOUR trade. There is not a high margin of safety in these - despite wild"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1845951660297707784)  2024-10-14T22:15Z [----] followers, 30.3K engagements


"$BYFC is poorly run ECIP bank and they replaced both their CEO and their CFO in the last year or so. I noticed that in their latest 10-Q they marked up their level [--] loan portfolio value significantly which cannot be explained by rates. If the new number is correct it suggests that the liquidation value of the bank is now 3x the stock price. Earnings seem to be improving too (time will tell) and perhaps the new CEO will move things in the right direction. Seems like decent upside if he does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1846547896394563620)  2024-10-16T13:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CBBI a small community bank in LA that serves the Korean American commuity has been criticized for not buying back stock - but those criticisms seem invalid based on actual performance. I compared $CBBI to its closest peers $OPBK and $PCB since the pandemic. Interestingly $CBBI has had the best EPS growth and is right inline on TBVPS growth (see screenshot below) despite no buybacks. Yet $CBBI is now trading at a 40% discount on P/E vs. a more reasonable 20% OTC listing discount at YE19. If the discount merely converged to the [----] level $CBBI would trade at $14.65/share +41% vs. current"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1849596914670440583)  2024-10-24T23:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yesterday afternoon $FPH received unanimous approval from the SF Board of Supervisors to amend the Candlestick project so that $FPH can move forward. There will be a final reading of the ordinance in the next 1-2 weeks which will be the final approval but this should be done. The amendments that $FPH sought included 1) ability to move over 2mm sf of entitlements to Candlestick (from Hunters Point which is in limbo) and 2) extends the public financing for the project. This is transformational for $FPH who had been mired in red tape for at least a decade. The pro forma entitlements include 7k+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1851771641887625316)  2024-10-30T23:42Z [----] followers, 15K engagements


"$MCEM - a crown jewel asset trading at 6x EBITDA with comps trading at 12x. Just incredibly cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854922750395031716)  2024-11-08T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A year ago I made the investment case for $BWEL - that the stock was at a mere fraction of liquidation value approaching a meaningful inflection in cash flow and had real staying power given an unleveraged B/S. Since then we got one update (FY24 financials released a month ago) and I attended the 99th annual shareholders' meeting in Pasadena on 10/23/24. I would summarize the meeting as follows: [--]. '23 flood largely behind the company. Company stored 98k AF of water. [--]. Inventories higher than normal due to a tough environment for cotton and tomatoes but it can and will eventually flip very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1858243058594160862)  2024-11-17T20:17Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"$HHH investor day takeaways [--]. Business is doing well- MPC and condo values have trended up NOI increasing at a nice clip as assets stabilize. [--]. NAV up from $106 to $118 on apples to apples basis (excl Seaport) without much change in assumptions on office (which are very conservative) [--]. Leverage levels are comfortable but will tick lower [--]. Share buybacks seem like they will come back in the nearish term [--]. Summerlin Sony studio project subject to Nevada approval in early [----] [--]. No comment on Pershing 13D Cc: @ragingbullcap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1858642046376178115)  2024-11-18T22:42Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements


"In 2020-2021 there was a once in a generation opportunity in pre-deal SPACs. They provided a return in excess of treasuries and provided opportunities for right tail outcomes if the sponsor announced a good deal. I recall owning a SPAC unit below $10/share thinking it was worth $10.10 and in the process of converting it to shares and warrants the company announced a deal that caused the stock to double overnight. A 1% return expectation over a month turned into 100%. While I don't see a return to that market anytime soon I am now moving my cash equivalents from short-term treasuries into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1858661211338162519)  2024-11-18T23:58Z [----] followers, 42.3K engagements


"$SEG no matter how you cut your NAV its hard to see much downside. Seeing some more write ups and Q324 investor letter mentions. Will be interesting to see management shed some more light on the story with Q4 earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1859649168278757746)  2024-11-21T17:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"An easy mistake is to focus on NAV when looking at shipping and offshore drillers. These companies have intangible value (and often negative value) beyond the value of their hard assets namely the ability of management to generate income from these assets. Think of it like this - if you were handed the best drillship in the world you wouldn't be able to generate the same yield as $RIG. $VAL is a name I consistently see mentioned on X with people focused on how good of a fleet they have. But the problem is that the legacy Ensco and Rowan businesses just didn't have any cred with the majors."  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1865205848395452542)  2024-12-07T01:25Z [----] followers, 14.6K engagements


"$FPH sells its last remaining office building plus the surrounding land for $88.5mm (FPH owns 75%). Between this and the other Great Park land sales company should be in a good position to refinance its legacy high cost bonds. https://www.ocbj.com/healthcare/city-of-hope-pays-88-5m-for-52-acres-in-great-parks-area/ https://www.ocbj.com/healthcare/city-of-hope-pays-88-5m-for-52-acres-in-great-parks-area/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1869426629459751247)  2024-12-18T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect significantly favorable. $FPH sold its last Irvine office building in December and they are also expected to close a large resi land sale in Irvine by year end or very early 1Q25. The proceeds of these sales will bring them very close to ZERO net debt enabling them to refinance their expensive notes. [--]. Capital intensity is also likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1873793529635299583)  2024-12-30T18:09Z [----] followers, 121K engagements


"Some fun predictions for [----] and a single stock wishlist: Predictions [--]. Law of large numbers takes hold and $MSTR largely converges to its NAV [--]. S&P [---] has a mediocre year (and looks ugly at some point mid year) and small cap value finally outperforms the S&P [--]. Ackman somehow gets a US permanent capital vehicle [--]. IPO window re-opens and we get SpaceX or Starlink transaction (maybe thru the Pershing SPARs) [--]. OpenAI proves to be the "Altavista" of AI and is overtaken by a better option [--]. Trump tax cuts get extended with only a modest improvement vs. the current rate of 21% (maybe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1874561140761546895)  2025-01-01T20:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Pershing Square Holdco (@billackman) is offering to increase its ownership from 37.6% to 69.2% by i) PSH acquiring 11.8mm shares at $85/share in cash and ii) $HHH repurchasing 5.9m shares at $85/share in cash. While this PROPOSED transaction is amazing for Pershing Square (no surprise) it is a BAD DEAL for shareholders given that Pershing will acquire full control without buying all the shares and they would be paying a price that is a large discount to NAV. There is no way that the disinterested board members while exercising their fiduciary duties could accept this partial deal for FULL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1878805331326759391)  2025-01-13T14:04Z [----] followers, 35K engagements


"@BillAckman Other issues: 1) Minority stub will be EVEN more illiquid and won't trade well 2) Ackman to charge fees() on stub holders and we already know he won't trade well as a public company 3) Does it really make sense to put even more leverage on this business We need deleveraging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1878808422541557777)  2025-01-13T14:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What is a reliable source of water in CA worth A lot more than is implied in $BWEL at a $550mm market cap. Where CA goes from here is uncertain- but I feel very confident that water is going to skyrocket in value given the actions that will be mandatory to safeguard SoCal. Very little downside in $BWEL which owns over 1% of CAs water supply (as well as 130k prime farmland acres and various other hard assets)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1878887297263034637)  2025-01-13T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ackman has shown his cards on $HHH. He knows that $PSUS is not an option and this is his best bet to create a permanent capital vehicle. Theres no chance $85 is his best bid nor is there any chance that $85 is the highest price that a private market participant would pay. The board should run a full strategic alternatives process- and only consider Ackmans merger proposal if the cash consideration plus stub equity value together are meaningfully closer to NAV of $120+. The stub equity could do really well but $HHH shareholders need a big cash payment to make it worth our while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1879008142379376884)  2025-01-14T03:30Z [----] followers, 20.3K engagements


"$KROS is an interesting busted biotech net-net. Approx $15/share in NCAV/share vs. mid $10s share price. cc: @gw_investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1880257447300067675)  2025-01-17T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$POWW is a name that hasn't been discussed on X. This is a special situation for a few reasons: 1) non-ESG business 2) litigation and 3) a recent material asset sale. This week $POWW sold its cash burning ammo mfg biz for $75mm. At current prices you create its one remaining biz GunBroker an asset light marketplace category killer for a hair above $100mm. GunBroker has minimal capex and high mkt share -- it has historically generated $30-40mm of segment EBITDA. Post asset sale $POWW's G&A is a bit unclear but the create on this trophy asset is quite low relative to the quality of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1882243543135146120)  2025-01-23T01:46Z [----] followers, 13K engagements


"$FPH results out guiding to $200mm of net income next year. Implies P/E of under 3x. Approaching zero net debt. Firing on all cylinders. 🔥 🔥 🔥"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1882537548121334249)  2025-01-23T21:15Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements


"$FPH traded in the $4.40-4.50 area after hours on earnings. The call further validated the thesis- and I want to flag a few key elements: [--]. Great Park land values per acre are moving even higher. And $FPH is likely going to rezone much of its commercial acreage (now worth $5mm/acre) to residential ($10mm/acre). Given they own [---] commercial acres rezoning could be worth $200mm ($500mm * 40%) [--]. $430mm of cash excludes another $45mm in an interest bearing note from City of Hope that matures in 12/2026. [--]. CFO committed to $100-200mm pay down of the notes and indicated a strong interest in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1882637485022298445)  2025-01-24T03:52Z [----] followers, 24.5K engagements


"Even with the stock up 35% today $FPH is trading at 4x [----] EPS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1882857858901201144)  2025-01-24T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BillAckman Your subtle humor was evident in this post and the $HHH proposal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1884654288120775014)  2025-01-29T17:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FPH was (and continues to be) value hiding in plain sight with multiple catalysts on the horizon (and they are still coming too). $HHH is in a very similar situation - and namely that the market does not recognize the significant cash flow generation that is coming after years of debt fueled capital spending. Sometimes the cheap SOTP real estate stories can work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1885121516091691030)  2025-01-31T00:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As it's been a while since the $HHH proposal went in to the board I was re-reading the letter and wanted to emphasize a nuanced but very key point. The letter reads: "Pershing believes that HHC is on the path to soon begin to generate substantial excess cash resources above and beyond investments in new property developments and amenities including the capital expenditures and other investments." As we have seen with $FPH the capital market tends not to look very far ahead on these businesses with long duration capital intensive land developments. The investment is often up front and can take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1887653787726205084)  2025-02-07T00:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PZZA is up 17% today on speculation of a take private. However there are numerous other small restaurant companies out there trading at big dislocations to their private market value. $JACK is clearly one potentially $DENN and there are others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1890126768717316602)  2025-02-13T19:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WEBC a very illiquid OTC name is worth attention. $181/$195 right now. One month ago when $WEBC was $160-170 the company paid a sizable premium to buy back 17% of the company's stock at $200/share (in a block trade) bringing the Weber family's ownership from 65% to 79%. One analogous situation I can think of is $MCEM. Several years ago $MCEM was trading in the 60s and the company did a dutch tender at a premium to acquire shares. We all know what happened after that. While $MCEM was in retrospect incredibly cheap $WEBC is by no means expensive. Additionally I am struggling to find a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1890489317061284218)  2025-02-14T19:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Cant wait to hear the garbage proposal from Ackman on $HHH. It is incumbent on shareholders to make sure Pershing Square is kept honest here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1891956184564785390)  2025-02-18T21:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Honestly I thought your first proposal was more compelling. This doesnt give us anything. Just issuing equity at $90 vs the buyback a few years ago at a similar price. Very telling that this is still a proposal. The board obviously cant approve this given they are fiduciaries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1891960484594844059)  2025-02-18T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some observations on $HHH: [--]. Ackmans proposal is weak. The board knows it and he knows it. He posts engagementbait during market hours that is borderline MNPI driving the stock up and then down on announcement. @SECGov should look into that. [--]. He is part of the problem. He has been the de facto sponsor of $HHH since inception. Yet he conveniently omits that fact when talking about his track record. He oversaw the expensive blunder at Seaport (and Teravalis) initiated share buybacks at a premium and forced company to issue stock as a result of a COVID. Overall his track record de facto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1892276230634033336)  2025-02-19T18:13Z [----] followers, 58.4K engagements


"Simple $HHH math: Current price: $74/share 1.5% fee at 15x multiple: $(17)/share Value of $900mm at $90: $3/share Pro forma price: $60/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1892314798659957151)  2025-02-19T20:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ Pershing now says that NAV is not a good valuation methodology but here is what they say in their March [----] $PSH.NA shareholder letter (before filing their 13D / failing at their $PSUS launch): "HHH is in the early stages of its decades-long value creation opportunity and we expect the company to become substantially more free-cash-flow generative in the coming years. Pershing Square purchased an additional [---] million shares of HHH in [----] at an average price of $72 per share and now owns 38% of the company. We believe our purchase price represents a deep discount to the companys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1893668891139711170)  2025-02-23T14:27Z [----] followers, 54K engagements


"4/ To summarize when Ackman wants something (i.e. sell at a good price of buy at a good price) you hear his words. Just like at Sohn in [----] and now in [----]. His actions are more important and suggest that he thinks that the price here is a steal. Going into COVID he had a very small position. COVID comes he invests $500mm at $50 adds more at $72 and has to stop adding because the company's bylaws prevent him from going above 40%. So now he wants to take over $HHH without paying a change of control premium nor having a shareholder vote. And what do we get A person who has been playing the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1893668898999861539)  2025-02-23T14:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HHH is hitting a major inflection point and the market is not pricing it in. Stock is barely up today but there was $28/share (or more) in incremental value disclosed namely: 1) Company's NAV for its MPCs (excluding Ward Village) increased in one quarter from $3.9bn to $4.8bn which is $18/share. The reason for the significant increase is mostly Summerlin where acreage values have inflected significantly. 2) Ward Village receives an additional 2.5-3.5mm sf of residential entitlements. This is around [--] incremental towers with $2.5bn of future revenue and I would estimate around $750mm of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1895151667965739056)  2025-02-27T16:39Z [----] followers, 41.3K engagements


"Open letter to $HHH its board and its shareholders. I was reflecting a bit more on the Ackman proposal and I think that Ackman's own thesis for turning $HHH into Berkshire is flawed and the concerns he has articulated substantiate that. [--]. Biggest issue $HHH has as a public company is its inability to return cash to shareholders for a very long period of time. There is a large timing mismatch between investment and return. To maintain tax efficiency as proceeds are generated they are recycled into additional development. Shareholders may apply a large discount rate to account for what is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1895952024430137664)  2025-03-01T21:39Z [----] followers, 42.8K engagements


"I still believe this https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1845951660297707784 Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of restructuring) and at this point it's a much more difficult trade. I keep seeing people talk https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1845951660297707784 Do not blindly fall into the higher profile investors hawking offshore drillers such as $VAL $RIG (again). The easy money in this trade was made a while ago (off the heels of a lot of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1897783841781334235)  2025-03-06T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WBA seems interesting at $11.27: -$11.45 paid out in cash in mid Q4 [----] plus a non-transferrable CVR -CVR of up to $3/share on VillageMD ($WBA owns $3.4bn of debt in VillageMD plus an equity stake) -70% of proceeds on VillageMD goes to CVR holders -WBA has invested billions into VillageMD health clinics -VillageMD does $5-6bn of top-line and burning cash but company believes can do $300mm of EBITDA. IRR based on CVR value (assuming two year payout post close): $1/share = 13% $2/share = 20% $3/share = 26%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1898015564833931436)  2025-03-07T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SEG results The good: [--] year lease with Meow Wolf expected to drive 1mm people per year to Seaport. [---] Water St could generate big proceeds from sale or partnership Mgmt seems very focused on cost control at Tin Building and insourcing operations The bad: No guidance and looks weak not to take Q+A $25mm of burn in the quarter My take: [---] Water St is the key near term catalyst. If it sells near cost basis ($250mm or so) would be very transformative for the company. Burn should start to slow meaningfully in next few quarters. Incredibly cheap at a 15-20pct discount vs rights offering level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1899520227551150579)  2025-03-11T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FPH is sitting on $431mm of cash with $525mm of 10.5% notes callable at [---]. The net cost right now is $38mm/yr. Mgmt guiding to $100-200mm of debt reduction this year. Seems too conservative but if we use $200mm of paydown and assume a refi into 8% notes the pro forma net interest cost is $17mm/year or $21mm/year of benefit. Given the net income this year of $200mm plus the undrawn RC I think its likely the company reduces debt by more than $200mm which would result in even more significant savings. HY market is super hot right now and $FPH CFO was at the JPM HY conference last month he was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1902764685226856728)  2025-03-20T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"You know how I know that $DENN is very cheap Because they could do a whole business securitization at 5-6x leverage refinance their existing debt and pay a dividend equal to nearly the entire market cap. And the pro forma business would be highly FCF positive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1902876526271664517)  2025-03-21T00:14Z [----] followers, 34.5K engagements


"The company doesn't need to raise equity and has very favorable debt terms. There is no balance sheet risk here. The issue is that the comps are negative because they took a lot of price after COVID bc times were good and inflation. Now they need to cycle through the unwind of that. Another issue is that Del Taco is really weighing on the numbers. JITB is mostly all franchised (with the owned stores being high AUV) while Del Taco is a lot of owned stores weaker performance and more operating deleveraging. The solution may be to simply sell Del Taco to a PE firm (like Qdoba) now that the old"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1904617078864437527)  2025-03-25T19:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FPH was one of my highest conviction ideas going into [----] and remains so despite its big move up YTD. The balance sheet has been completely derisked and lower rates should on the margin improve the value of the asset base. My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1908254432623567344)  2025-04-04T20:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PLAY is too cheap to ignore. The stock at $17/share is at the IPO price from [--] years ago when EBITDA was around 1/3 where it is today. $PLAY is two businesses: 1) arcades (dba "Dave & Busters") and 2) bowling (dba "Main Event"). They acquired Main Event a few years ago for around $800mm and its probably worth at least that today (and pureplay $BOWL trades well). You create the legacy arcade business at around 2x EBITDA. There is a large insider shareholder Hill Path (former Apollo partner) who owns 20% of the company and has two board seats. They recently fired the CEO (who made a number of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1911906145519984994)  2025-04-14T22:15Z [----] followers, 63.4K engagements


"$FPH reported and reiterated guidance for around $200mm of net income this year. They are also about zero net debt now. The P/E multiple is under 4x. Still a top idea for me. My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH multiple catalysts that are likely to play out very shortly: [--]. Leverage profile is about to inflect My highest conviction idea going into [----] is $FPH currently $3.60 vs. NAV of $10-15/sh. I believe that the stock could double in [----]. This name is cheap WITH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1915506142555607476)  2025-04-24T20:40Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements


"$HHH While I would have preferred no transaction I think the transaction announced today is a nice positive for shareholders - it amounts to layering in a management fee of 38bps/year and a 1.5% performance fee. Plus the primary equity raise ($900mm at $100/share) is $5/share of accretion vs. where the stock was trading. Absent Ackman $HHH was trading at around 50% of its NAV reflecting the market's difficulty of underwriting and having the patience for effectively a CRE/land bank hybrid without any real promise of a return of capital. For those long-term oriented the returns seemed good but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1919388102189351244)  2025-05-05T13:45Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements


"$MLP a public company 60% owned by Steve Case trades at around a $300mm valuation with 22k acres of land (incl. 10k acres in a conservation easement). Valuation is $13k/acre or $25k/acre excl. conservation land. Land banks generally suck bc they are capital intensive and long duration i.e. you spend a long time investing in the land to sell it and then you reinvest to develop more land and then hopefully at the end of the project (10-20+ years) there's a big bounty awaiting patient shareholders. $MLP is different than your average land bank. A few years ago Steve Case decided he was going to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1922440899306652106)  2025-05-13T23:56Z [----] followers, 43K engagements


"Something you don't see every day is the issuance of a class of preferred stock where dividends are completely discretionary and do not accrue if unpaid. I have never heard of this concept but $MSTR is pricing a $1bn preferred today $STRD with non-cumulative dividends. Can someone please educate me as to why investors are OK with these terms https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312525133455/d125757d424b5.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312525133455/d125757d424b5.htm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1930780876172107947)  2025-06-06T00:16Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements


"Its hard to be excited about single name stock ideas when you can just buy SPACs and make money consistently every day. Hopefully this cycle is similar to 2020-2021 in which case maybe we are in the 2nd or 3rd inning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1936211508897149371)  2025-06-20T23:56Z [----] followers, 12K engagements


"$FPH update. I had presented $FPH at year end [----] as my very best idea. As of today it is up about 50% YTD (to $5.60/share) and it is still a high conviction idea. In my original post (link below) my thesis is playing out exactly as I presented it. However there is now a new leg to the thesis and it's worth diving in. Last Friday $FPH announced that it was acquiring 75% of Hearthstone's asset and investment mgmt businesses for $56mm ("HS"). HS is a merchant bank that arranges land financings - having relationships with both homebuilders and investors (HNWI family office funds etc.) and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1938662283393277973)  2025-06-27T18:14Z [----] followers, 11.1K engagements


"$FPH thoughts on the move yesterday. For the last several calls there was a positive surprise and this was the first call where there wasn't - so a bit of a pause in momentum. The negative on the call was that they revised net income guidance from just under $200mm ($190-195mm) to in-line with previous year net income of $178mm. On the call they attributed this change to the "timing" of land sales and if one took a super critical lens that could be interpreted negatively in combination with comments around general weakness in homebuilder demand (despite the fact that they said that their CA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1949088671782863073)  2025-07-26T12:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4 finalists. A sale here could result in $150mm+ of tax-free proceeds. 2) Jean-Georges termination. On 7/3/25 $SEG filed an 8-K finally announcing the termination of this horrendous contract. It is the uncertainty around this contract that mgmt has been loath to provide cash flow guidance. The termination of the contract"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1950968875425959981)  2025-07-31T17:16Z [----] followers, 19.4K engagements


"Both catalysts playing out $SEG $SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4 $SEG reports in less than two weeks. There are two obvious catalysts - both of which could be huge - that we could get an update on: 1) Sale of [---] Water Street. There was an article two weeks ago that said there were [---] interested parties and the company was talking to 3-4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1957547166731571486)  2025-08-18T20:56Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"I mean the aircraft seem ridiculous but what are the actual facts that make Red Pants Man a bad dude The earnings and balance sheet growth have been good. Efficiency ratio good. The only thing bad has been the stock price. What am I missing Seems like a signal vs noise situation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1960503338643996923)  2025-08-27T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TimyanBankAlert At 2x earnings and sub 0.5x TBV seems like a big margin of safety"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1960711978063634682)  2025-08-27T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Can someone please explain what I'm missing here $YORKU deal involved a $1bn contribution of Cronos (6.3bn CRO). That implies a valuation of around 16c per CRO. Now CRO is trading at 38c. Why has $YORKU barely reacted Isn't the NAV of this business now well over $20 cc: @vik_mittal @SPACuity @OddDiligence @valwithcatalyst https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961046900758478952 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961046900758478952"  
[X Link](https://x.com/marginofdanger/status/1961046900758478952)  2025-08-28T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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