[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @macro_path Macro Path Macro Path posts on X about bitcoin, crypto, liquidity, matter the most. They currently have XX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours. ### Engagements: XXX [#](/creator/twitter::1991526744382472192/interactions)  - X Week XXX -XX% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1991526744382472192/posts_active)  ### Followers: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1991526744382472192/followers)  - X Week XX +22% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1991526744382472192/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) **Social topic influence** [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [crypto](/topic/crypto), [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #4243, [matter](/topic/matter), [investment](/topic/investment), [carry](/topic/carry), [deeper](/topic/deeper), [history](/topic/history), [so i](/topic/so-i), [macro](/topic/macro) #89 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@coinbureau](/creator/undefined) [@bitcoinmagazine](/creator/undefined) [@saylor](/creator/undefined) [@ladoger](/creator/undefined) [@bitcoinarchive](/creator/undefined) [@apsk32](/creator/undefined) [@leewinbush](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "Thesis: A) Monetary path base case: I view a 25bp Fed trim as the most likely outcome but expect the Fed to push back on signaling deeper cuts; markets are still pricing more easing. B) Carry unwinding if a modest cut occurs while other rates remain sticky carry positions can unwind quickly; history (Jul 2024) suggests these dynamics can produce capitulationstyle lows. Note: the probability and depth of market stress scale with the clarity (or muddiness) of Fed forward guidance. ⚖📉" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998409512462832024) 2025-12-09T15:08Z XX followers, XX engagements "Summary & positioning: Bitcoin tends to peak in posthalving Q4; this cycle topped amid apathy so I interpret a lowerhigh regime as more probable than a blowoff top (my base view). Alternate scenario: clear dovish Fed signaling raises the odds of a sustained relief rally. Probabilistic plan: consider accumulating on multimonth drawdowns and trimming into rallies that fail to reclaim prior highs. Not investment advice. How are you positioning into Dec XX 📈🟦" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998409513305866392) 2025-12-09T15:08Z XX followers, XX engagements "7) Macro linkages (Note): My reading2019 peaked before the Fed balance sheet turned up; policy pivots historically catalyze major BTC rallies. With equities near highs and limited nearterm easing BTC may underperform until a macro catalyst (stress or pivot maybe 2026)" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998049713913028797) 2025-12-08T15:19Z XX followers, XX engagements "1) Working thesis: I assess whether Bitcoin's current contraction is a different kind of bear and outline a 2026 roadmap based on the last three 4year cycles and weekly SMAs (50/100/200/300). I focus on cycle timing SMAs participation drawdowns and macro. #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998048863559786601) 2025-12-08T15:15Z XX followers, XX engagements "My base case is a multimonth declining regime. An alternate lowerprobability scenario is equities running a fresh blowoff over the next XX months and BTC following higher I dont see it as likely. Ill be watching renewed retail flows a broad alt season and a halt to whale selling as signs that view could be wrong. This is my opinion. #Bitcoin #macro" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999094629216768439) 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements "I default to what worked in the prior cycle until clear macro evidence says otherwise if it's not broke don't fix it. I tune out #crypto headlines and trade the data: liquidity and monetary policy matter more. I say this as my opinion not a fact. #BTC #Bitcoin" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999098164616548649) 2025-12-11T12:45Z XX followers, XX engagements "⛏ Miner stress check. Network hash rate has trended lower since Oct XX triggering a hashribbons capitulation (30d 60d). Historically the higherprobability trigger is the recross (30d 60d) a cited example this cycle preceded XX% upside ($107k$123124k). Puell multiple XXXX implies miners earning 2/3 of last years average; fee revenue is in a downtrend and total USD miner earnings this cycle are lower than last cycles peaks ($45M at filming). Tactically I scale in during capitulation and add on the hashribbons buy cross; size for the 2022 exception. Not investment advice. #Bitcoin #Mining" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998773138616705052) 2025-12-10T15:13Z XX followers, XX engagements "🔍 Fed day: my base case is a XX bp cut; a XX bp surprise seems lowprob. Expect chop/whipsaws around the decision; weekly closes matter more than intraday noise. Historically when cuts arrive alongside an inverted curve and labor softening recession odds rise. In this thread: rates BTC cycles TLT plan. #FOMC #Bitcoin #Bonds (1/3)" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998776831294492973) 2025-12-10T15:28Z XX followers, XX engagements "From (1/3) Thesis: A) Rates/yields: the recent backup in yields looks like a completed countertrend bounce. Base case is lower yields into/after the cut sequence; dollar softness tends to rhyme with that. Focus on weekly closes; if markets repair above breakdown levels on a weekly basis Id reassess. B) BTC: just turned positive YTD. Early in daily/weekly cycles; BTC dominance often soft DecFeb; prior cycles often bottom XX months after initial dips. My approach: if FOMC volatility sweeps lows I prefer patience then scale only on a weekly close through the local trendline; add only if still" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1998776832712224916) 2025-12-10T15:28Z XX followers, XX engagements "🔴🔵 I think the October alltime high was used as exit liquidity by longterm holders a clear distribution signal. Bitcoin diverged from equities/gold and is XX% off its high; I estimate XX% chance the fouryear cycle peak is already in. #Bitcoin #macro" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999094627329245552) 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements "I see two primary drivers: sustained whale selling and institutional rotation into AI/tech combined with a lack of renewed retail inflows and no broad altcoin season all signs of market exhaustion. For traders Id favor selling into strength and looking to accumulate nearer the expected 2026 cycle low (not investment advice). #Bitcoin #crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999094628319158725) 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements "🟠 I see 2025 echoing prior cycles: midterm-year bottoms posthalving Q4 tops and diminishing returns from the lows. Retail was muted the top felt like apathy so I read this as a macrodriven #crypto regime anchored by #BTC" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999119842004361522) 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, XX engagements "I think higher rates and quantitative tightening left many altcoins behind while blue chips held up. In this bear phase dominance can fall not because alts surge but because alts already collapsed and larger caps catch up thats my view" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999119842763558983) 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, X engagements "My base case: macro headwinds persist into mid2026 producing a 2019style 9month drawdown with a countertrend rally in early 2026. I also see a scenario where alts find lows versus Bitcoin and hold early2026 could be a selective buy area for blue chips. This is my opinion not investment advice" [X Link](https://x.com/macro_path/status/1999119843518456003) 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, XX engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
@macro_path Macro Path
Macro Path posts on X about bitcoin, crypto, liquidity, matter the most. They currently have XX followers and XX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Engagements: XXX #
- X Week XXX -XX%
Mentions: XX #
Followers: XX #
- X Week XX +22%
CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance cryptocurrencies currencies exchanges
Social topic influence bitcoin, crypto, liquidity #4243, matter, investment, carry, deeper, history, so i, macro #89
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @coinbureau @bitcoinmagazine @saylor @ladoger @bitcoinarchive @apsk32 @leewinbush
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"Thesis: A) Monetary path base case: I view a 25bp Fed trim as the most likely outcome but expect the Fed to push back on signaling deeper cuts; markets are still pricing more easing. B) Carry unwinding if a modest cut occurs while other rates remain sticky carry positions can unwind quickly; history (Jul 2024) suggests these dynamics can produce capitulationstyle lows. Note: the probability and depth of market stress scale with the clarity (or muddiness) of Fed forward guidance. ⚖📉"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:08Z XX followers, XX engagements
"Summary & positioning: Bitcoin tends to peak in posthalving Q4; this cycle topped amid apathy so I interpret a lowerhigh regime as more probable than a blowoff top (my base view). Alternate scenario: clear dovish Fed signaling raises the odds of a sustained relief rally. Probabilistic plan: consider accumulating on multimonth drawdowns and trimming into rallies that fail to reclaim prior highs. Not investment advice. How are you positioning into Dec XX 📈🟦"
X Link 2025-12-09T15:08Z XX followers, XX engagements
"7) Macro linkages (Note): My reading2019 peaked before the Fed balance sheet turned up; policy pivots historically catalyze major BTC rallies. With equities near highs and limited nearterm easing BTC may underperform until a macro catalyst (stress or pivot maybe 2026)"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:19Z XX followers, XX engagements
"1) Working thesis: I assess whether Bitcoin's current contraction is a different kind of bear and outline a 2026 roadmap based on the last three 4year cycles and weekly SMAs (50/100/200/300). I focus on cycle timing SMAs participation drawdowns and macro. #Bitcoin"
X Link 2025-12-08T15:15Z XX followers, XX engagements
"My base case is a multimonth declining regime. An alternate lowerprobability scenario is equities running a fresh blowoff over the next XX months and BTC following higher I dont see it as likely. Ill be watching renewed retail flows a broad alt season and a halt to whale selling as signs that view could be wrong. This is my opinion. #Bitcoin #macro"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements
"I default to what worked in the prior cycle until clear macro evidence says otherwise if it's not broke don't fix it. I tune out #crypto headlines and trade the data: liquidity and monetary policy matter more. I say this as my opinion not a fact. #BTC #Bitcoin"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:45Z XX followers, XX engagements
"⛏ Miner stress check. Network hash rate has trended lower since Oct XX triggering a hashribbons capitulation (30d 60d). Historically the higherprobability trigger is the recross (30d 60d) a cited example this cycle preceded XX% upside ($107k$123124k). Puell multiple XXXX implies miners earning 2/3 of last years average; fee revenue is in a downtrend and total USD miner earnings this cycle are lower than last cycles peaks ($45M at filming). Tactically I scale in during capitulation and add on the hashribbons buy cross; size for the 2022 exception. Not investment advice. #Bitcoin #Mining"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:13Z XX followers, XX engagements
"🔍 Fed day: my base case is a XX bp cut; a XX bp surprise seems lowprob. Expect chop/whipsaws around the decision; weekly closes matter more than intraday noise. Historically when cuts arrive alongside an inverted curve and labor softening recession odds rise. In this thread: rates BTC cycles TLT plan. #FOMC #Bitcoin #Bonds (1/3)"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:28Z XX followers, XX engagements
"From (1/3) Thesis: A) Rates/yields: the recent backup in yields looks like a completed countertrend bounce. Base case is lower yields into/after the cut sequence; dollar softness tends to rhyme with that. Focus on weekly closes; if markets repair above breakdown levels on a weekly basis Id reassess. B) BTC: just turned positive YTD. Early in daily/weekly cycles; BTC dominance often soft DecFeb; prior cycles often bottom XX months after initial dips. My approach: if FOMC volatility sweeps lows I prefer patience then scale only on a weekly close through the local trendline; add only if still"
X Link 2025-12-10T15:28Z XX followers, XX engagements
"🔴🔵 I think the October alltime high was used as exit liquidity by longterm holders a clear distribution signal. Bitcoin diverged from equities/gold and is XX% off its high; I estimate XX% chance the fouryear cycle peak is already in. #Bitcoin #macro"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements
"I see two primary drivers: sustained whale selling and institutional rotation into AI/tech combined with a lack of renewed retail inflows and no broad altcoin season all signs of market exhaustion. For traders Id favor selling into strength and looking to accumulate nearer the expected 2026 cycle low (not investment advice). #Bitcoin #crypto"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:31Z XX followers, XX engagements
"🟠 I see 2025 echoing prior cycles: midterm-year bottoms posthalving Q4 tops and diminishing returns from the lows. Retail was muted the top felt like apathy so I read this as a macrodriven #crypto regime anchored by #BTC"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, XX engagements
"I think higher rates and quantitative tightening left many altcoins behind while blue chips held up. In this bear phase dominance can fall not because alts surge but because alts already collapsed and larger caps catch up thats my view"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, X engagements
"My base case: macro headwinds persist into mid2026 producing a 2019style 9month drawdown with a countertrend rally in early 2026. I also see a scenario where alts find lows versus Bitcoin and hold early2026 could be a selective buy area for blue chips. This is my opinion not investment advice"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:11Z XX followers, XX engagements