# ![@lundeen_ne Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1758182902339088384.png) @lundeen_ne Ryan Lundeen

Ryan Lundeen posts on X about debt, $wbd, investment, money the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1758182902339088384/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1758182902339088384/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +60%
- [--] Month [------] +209%
- [--] Months [-------] -49%
- [--] Year [---------] +138%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1758182902339088384/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1758182902339088384/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -30%
- [--] Month [--] +41%
- [--] Months [---] +123%
- [--] Year [---] +44%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1758182902339088384/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1758182902339088384/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -0.63%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.28%
- [--] Months [-----] +69%
- [--] Year [-----] +69%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1758182902339088384/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1758182902339088384/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [agencies](/list/agencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[debt](/topic/debt), [$wbd](/topic/$wbd), [investment](/topic/investment), [money](/topic/money), [$siri](/topic/$siri) #8, [$nlop](/topic/$nlop) #1, [stocks](/topic/stocks), [$omc](/topic/$omc) #2, [$rig](/topic/$rig), [$khc](/topic/$khc) #24

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@loneelmcapital](/creator/undefined) [@turtlebayio](/creator/undefined) [@davidkatunaric](/creator/undefined) [@icbarrett](/creator/undefined) [@ginkgocap](/creator/undefined) [@bichonredux](/creator/undefined) [@deepvalueco](/creator/undefined) [@foamontherunway](/creator/undefined) [@joedoeknowsguy](/creator/undefined) [@karstresearch](/creator/undefined) [@madscapital](/creator/undefined) [@rorschachstocks](/creator/undefined) [@stokedonwaves](/creator/undefined) [@tmtanalystanon](/creator/undefined) [@shaletier7](/creator/undefined) [@recoverytrade](/creator/undefined) [@neverhedgecap](/creator/undefined) [@himichaelhe](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@ultradeep3](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD)](/topic/$wbd) [Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)](/topic/$siri) [Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)](/topic/$omc) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)](/topic/$khc) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)](/topic/$soc) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [British American Tobacco (BTI)](/topic/$bti) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Synthetix (SNX)](/topic/$snx) [Veno Finance (VNO)](/topic/$vno) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT)](/topic/$ecvt) [Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)](/topic/$cmcsa) [Viasat Inc (VSAT)](/topic/$vsat) [Interpublic Group of Companies Inc (IPG)](/topic/$ipg) [Ardent Health Partners, LLC (ARDT)](/topic/$ardt) [Cable One, Inc. (CABO)](/topic/$cabo) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [American Express Company (AXP)](/topic/$axp) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Clorox Co (CLX)](/topic/$clx) [Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty SiriusXM Common Stock (LSXMK)](/topic/$lsxmk) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Kohl's Corporation (KSS)](/topic/$kss) [Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)](/topic/$vz) [Paramount Global (PARA)](/topic/$para) [VF Corp (VFC)](/topic/$vfc)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@ArchiteuthisDx $VNO isnt insolvent yet Wheres the guy with the proprietary model calling for bankruptcy at $10 Might have some adjustments to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1785710834464788589)  2024-05-01T16:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If Warner Bros didnt make $ $WBD would still generate enough FCF to manage debt (albeit uncomfortably). Discovery is cash machine. Will still be CF coming from Warner Bros. IMO any talk of insolvency is nonsense. NBA/TNT doesnt jeopardize that Same narrative happened at $VNO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1786044523140808860)  2024-05-02T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Compared to $VNO $WBD is a walk in the park. The duration and rates of their debt is a huge asset. I owned beginning of the year and realized a 30% loss to sidestep any negotiation volatility like just happened. Started new position yesterday. Hope this time around is better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1786046675712143617)  2024-05-02T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"High level $WBD has $44B of LT debt (fixed rate) with a current (as of Dec. [--] 2023) annual interest expense of $2B 50% matures within 10yrs 11% in 20yrs 7% in 23-25yrs 27% in 26-38yrs with remainder 5% spread out in between"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708173433848221)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$WBD generates around $6.5B after interest expense and capex that can/is being used to pay down debt. So theoretically if they could maintain that $6.5B/yr they'd be able to retire 50% of their LT debt in 3.5yrs. Okay but cable is dying & they're (maybe) gonna lose the NBA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708174675345436)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If you have any other numbers please let me know. But the only estimate I've been able to find is that losing the NBA would reduce $WBD EBITDA by $250m I actually fucked up and annualized the $250m in the following numbers so there's plenty of conservatism baked into all this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708176009228474)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Let's pretend $WBD loses NBA & EBITDA decreases $1.1B (13%). In that scenario: EBITDA = $9.1B (down from $10.2B in 2023) Int. Exp = $2.2B (2023 # which is 10% higher than current run rate hashtag conservative assumptions) Capex = $1.3B -- $5.5B to pay down debt (or $6.5 - 1)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708177204560200)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"And remember that's assuming $1B hit to EBITDA vs analyst est. of $250m So far so good. But let's pretend not only that $WBD DTC starts losing money again but linear keeps deteriorating. As I said in the first post we can take the $5.5B reduce it by 30% each year for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708178521522646)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"10yrs pretend it stabilizes there and $WBD would have generated enough cash to pay off all maturities due through [----]. They'd have paid off 54% of their debt and cut interest expense in half to $1B. All this pretends they're trying to go debt free & not ever roll any debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708179951894678)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"You can work out valuation & expected returns yourself. Debt pay down = increased value of equity as does interest expense savings. Even if $WBD does $2.5B that's 13% levered yield on today's prices. At some point (after more deleveraging) they'll probably initiate a buyback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708181495287999)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Finally I just want to point out that the Discovery side of $WBD is a FCF machine that generated $3B+ FCF consistently pre-merger. Their networks reach more homes globally than probably any other (Malone's words not mine). So that "FCF declines 30%/yr for 10yrs" won't do that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787708183319892382)  2024-05-07T04:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I put all this out because Ive seen a ton of nonsense around $WBD either not being able to cover their debt someone even suggesting theyre a zero $FUBO may be a zero. But I dont see how $WBD. Studio segment did Barbie. They did Dune series. This company is not a trash can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787709460338631053)  2024-05-07T05:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Havent owned for a bit but still follow $VNO and results not promising - Occupancy still hasnt bottomed - Same store NOI down again - FCF down to $40m from the $200m I thought it would bottom at Not surprised theyre talking about selling [--] properties. Rates rolling higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787922975095767322)  2024-05-07T19:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DIS guiding $8B FCF for FY24 The guidance:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787928866771628303)  2024-05-07T19:33Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Id be surprised if they hit $8B FCF. Even if they do youre talking about 31x EV/FCF multiple vs 12x for $WBD $NFLX @ 39x But glad to see $DIS DTC hit profitability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787932141306720558)  2024-05-07T19:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Two Twitter arenas I refuse to enter: $MTCH and foot fungus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1787950707200369055)  2024-05-07T21:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap Dont love to say it but facts are facts. All the metrics I watch for VNO have gotten worse than I expected they would. Theres nothing attractive about a $5B market cap doing $40m discretionary cash flow and no support in sight for the fundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788044423705559107)  2024-05-08T03:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Not sure whats least surprising $TSLA being investigated for wire and securities fraud or the stock hardly being down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788214131268391383)  2024-05-08T14:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap My concern is how comfortably they can make it to the future. You know I defended $VNO more than anyone else (rationally at least) But if youre not more uncomfortable now than last year idk youre looking at it objectively. I know I sound like the guys I debated when I owned it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788229776995389514)  2024-05-08T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap From when I first started buying $VNO in 2022: - cash flow excl PENN dev is down almost 50% - theyre new credit revolver was reduced 27% - liquidity is down 21% - occupancy still hasnt bottomed - theyre now generating no discretionary cash flow to delever (or pay div)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788230361056428203)  2024-05-08T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap And finally where I felt like rates would not go much higher or for much longer it now looks like theyre going to keep going higher and for longer. Not good for $VNO. I always said as long as rates stabilized theyd be okay for a few years. Thats more uncomfortable today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788230965900312604)  2024-05-08T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Look fwd to $WBD earnings tomorrow. Firing on all cylinders imo the business can generate $6.5B FCF annually (not expecting that tomorrow) If linear/NBA headwinds continue + DTC/studio dragged I would expect absolute min of $2.5B. Any normalized run-rate less than that & Im out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788240912239276474)  2024-05-08T16:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"As of today Im in for 13% common + calls (ST and LT) and a 75bp hedge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788242377477435547)  2024-05-08T16:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Might have to go long $DIS short $NFLX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788243872532893991)  2024-05-08T16:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I think $WBD is worth $12-33/shr depending where things normalize which is admittedly difficult to predict given the nature of their businesses. Thats the estimate is so wide. But if Im right cheap regardless of where it lands on the spectrum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788246396467908783)  2024-05-08T16:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"My quick read of $WBD Q1 [--] EBITDA - Int Exp - Capex = $1.4B Paid down $1.1B of debt DTC profitable again but only from lower SG&A. Subs grew Still some adverse effects from strikes Seasonally weakest FCF quarter. Will be rolling out max in Europe. Linear still melting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788538900215947601)  2024-05-09T11:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The big question is (what) will they be able to do more aside from cut costs. $DIS bundle has potential. Im still unsure of DTC profit potential in general. But all in all Im a long way from worrying about them financially"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788542021407297778)  2024-05-09T12:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Assuming $250m EBITDA hit is accurate if $WBD loses NBA contract hard to think its worth topping a $2.5B/yr bid for to save. If anyone else has better estimates or thoughts feel free to share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788568739761266875)  2024-05-09T13:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$WBD debt reduction is big tailwind Heres YoY interest expense reduction (assuming pay down & no new/rolling debt) + annual savings run-rate on int exp ie FCF YE25: -3.1% $62m YE26: -5.9% $178m YE27: -7.3% $312m YE28: -9.6% $477m YE29: -4.6% $549m YE30: -6.5% $645m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788594661524738172)  2024-05-09T15:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Regarding top post unsure of $WBD comment on Q1 being seasonally weakest. Looks to me Q2 has been lowest every year from [----] onward. Either way Im expecting $8.9B EBITDA for the year. Assume previous year capex which I expect is overshooting. Still on track for $5.6B FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788596727672439100)  2024-05-09T15:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Assume now thru YE2030 they generate $2.5B FCF per year (just enough to pay maturities) @ YE2030 theres $17B less debt + $3.1B FCF run-rate. Maintain current market multiples & $WBD equity is worth $20/shr (14%+ CAGR). Q1 already generated of what they need for this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788605667697164372)  2024-05-09T16:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA considers selling charging stations to $BP because Tesla has $27B cash on balance sheet and cant afford to maintain let alone expand the stations. Or the employees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788632387049394579)  2024-05-09T18:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ArchiteuthisDx @falloutonprime @shogunfx Was afraid itd be real cheesy. Halo tv show was a train wreck. But FO hit it out of the park. The nods to the game were subtle. The story line was perfect. The soundtrack. The cast. I almost went out and bought an Xbox just to play it again. Cant wait for season 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788731457575276691)  2024-05-10T00:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@loneelmcapital @Lllearning97 The conspiracy being that Elon would (need to) pay them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1788958836306387309)  2024-05-10T15:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Troy is experiencing Persian messenger syndrome at its finest When $TSLA was doing well (growing no competition etc) that meant Troy was reporting attractive numbers & bulls loved him Now that Tesla is facing headwinds & numbers are bad he reports those & bulls cant stand it In China Model [--] sold [-----] units in Q4 [----] and [-----] units in Q1 [----]. After [--] weeks Q2 sales are noticeably lower than both of the last two quarters but we'll have a better idea later as we get more data. If Model [--] sales drop by [-----] units it's probably https://t.co/tQjSxcgTZn In China Model [--] sold [-----] units in Q4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1789292263404626133)  2024-05-11T13:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Persian messenger syndrome Denial Over optimism Inconsistency avoidance Endowment effect Confirmation bias Serpico effects First conclusion Liking/loving/disliking/hatting Etc etc $TSLA bulls check + of Mungers checklist for stupid thinking at this point Its a lollapalooza"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1789293981592912328)  2024-05-11T13:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Wtf. Bought $FTAI during Covid. But their dividend was always covered by debt. What a run. Looks like a good short candidate FTAI is an aerospace products lessor (engines aircraft) and a service provider. $8B market cap $2.7B debt. It is levered at 20x assets/equity. So 5.6% equity. Trading at a casual 45x book value. https://t.co/mcZUwquLrI FTAI is an aerospace products lessor (engines aircraft) and a service provider. $8B market cap $2.7B debt. It is levered at 20x assets/equity. So 5.6% equity. Trading at a casual 45x book value. https://t.co/mcZUwquLrI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1789798247810117902)  2024-05-12T23:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Its kind of amazing to me that gas stations are as successful as they are when merchandise is majority of the profit $ATD.TO $CASY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790155146548158622)  2024-05-13T23:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"HBO cannot compete with $NFLX. But also HBO produces the second highest amount of award winning shows and movies after $NFLX and has [--] of the top [--] ranks tv shows of all times (Netflix has none) $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790158483175690578)  2024-05-13T23:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Gd ChatGPT-4o is good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790186000796594458)  2024-05-14T01:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@loneelmcapital insert roaring kitty face"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790378344757727524)  2024-05-14T13:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Taking L on $LSXMA $LSXMK is interesting. So is $WBD Though Bauposts 13F is only 18.5% of their AUM (as of Dec. 31) So $WBD was a 1% position. Hard to give their activity much weight. The LibertyXM position was their second largest @ 2.7% and who knows what the trade was Seth Klarman sold 85% of $WBD and bought Soundhound AI 🤔 $SOUN https://t.co/udxEoY9Bm6 Seth Klarman sold 85% of $WBD and bought Soundhound AI 🤔 $SOUN https://t.co/udxEoY9Bm6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790515035300651504)  2024-05-14T22:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$WBD announced a Dune TV series"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790764645101314363)  2024-05-15T15:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"the legal framework is strong fair and more appropriate to our mission. Theyre moving to Texas because the Delaware court struck down Elons comp. So saying the quiet part out loud their mission is Texas is Teslas home. Our management headquarters and principal manufacturing facility are in Texas and the legal framework is strong fair and more appropriate to our mission. Vote FOR the incorporation of Tesla in Texas. Texas is Teslas home. Our management headquarters and principal manufacturing facility are in Texas and the legal framework is strong fair and more appropriate to our mission. Vote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790773981655560318)  2024-05-15T15:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@wallstreetjet $WBD balance sheet is not terrible. The rest is accurate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790872296606888123)  2024-05-15T22:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"How is $WBD going to compete against $NFLX et al😥 'FURIOSA' garnered a 7-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. https://t.co/kkjJf8vA67 'FURIOSA' garnered a 7-minute standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. https://t.co/kkjJf8vA67"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790881836882636957)  2024-05-15T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap Do they have a plan for the cash Didnt mention anything on the call. Nice that of liabilities is deferred revenue. Strong balance sheet. Hard to predict though. Like management said with federal spending and budget cuts hard to predict. Interesting idea though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1790961997422498155)  2024-05-16T04:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@JE543201733071 I looked at them last year briefly. A couple people have told me to look at them. Might give it another look. I walked away liking $VZ more but $T may have better catalysts Im close to buying some $CABO and $CMCSA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791197555788800289)  2024-05-16T20:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Betta_call_saul How is $WBD struggling Debt isnt a problem. And if it was it would be for $CMCSA too $WBD debt/FCF = [---] $CMCSA debt/FCF = [---] $WBD produces second highest award winning shows/movies (behind $NFLX) year after year. $WBD losing NBA wont kill it. See thread below. Some numbers on $WBD primarily surrounding debt & NBA/TNT. TL;DR version is assume $WBD loses NBA contract + assume that "FCF" declines 30% each year for the next [--] years and $WBD still generates enough "FCF" to pay off all maturities due through [----] (assuming no refinances). Some numbers on $WBD primarily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791317238680592457)  2024-05-17T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is my Head of Macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791318508325773535)  2024-05-17T04:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"He recently resigned from OpenAI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791322522056548574)  2024-05-17T04:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JE543201733071 Yeah Im convinced people are too lazy to do the work on $WBD which is fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791521829103841424)  2024-05-17T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FantasyManDan Theyve got one of the better apps imo. Definitely better than Peacock Paramount or Amazon. Hulu app always crashing/glitchy for me. Netflix probably the best then Disney+ then HBO. Fubo had a good app but havent used in over a year now. Havent used Sling or YouTube"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791535131439546659)  2024-05-17T18:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BichonRedux Or.get $5.5B today on $20B mc with $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791639634436399481)  2024-05-18T01:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Average cost to visit Disneyland in [----] was $2.29 per visitor. That included parking admission rides and amusements. Adj for inflation is $26.79 today. $DIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791835900697034797)  2024-05-18T14:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NOTFOMO @BichonRedux Agree personally. But $PARA more potential near term catalysts to get a return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791870461028262271)  2024-05-18T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zugmanfabio Wait for $PARA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791875193129886019)  2024-05-18T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New $WBD thesis just dropped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1791960512613277959)  2024-05-18T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So what do you get buying $RIG Mcap is $5.8B They have $7.3B debt RIG generates $11B cumulative FCF assuming day rates basically go to $1M $11B pre-debt FCF - 7.3B debt = $3.7B FCF on $5.8B equity investment But they wont go debt free. Theyre targeting $4-4.5B debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792417152202617138)  2024-05-20T04:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So maybe half your equity investment gets returned to you via buybacks or dividends if you held to [----] Bottom line is these seem like fairly aggressive assumptions to me IMO. And what is this worth to the market Im not shitting on $RIG bulls. I dont think RIG is going BK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792417156636041224)  2024-05-20T04:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"But I dont see how you get a whole lot back from your investment fundamentally speaking (cash flow). And who wants to hold this through [----] This was all napkin math. High day rates take time to flow thru and bring up avg day rates as contracts roll"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792417158406045777)  2024-05-20T04:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Seems like best hope for profits here is basically trading sardines before the next down leg of the cycle If thats the approach historical multiples during the bull cycle put $RIG at $9-18/share. Im not opposed to sardines but $WBD is mine. Anyway Sunday night ramble /end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792417160050176248)  2024-05-20T04:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$AON valuation multiple coming down. But also feels too late Tripled ROIC Doubled margins Reduced share count by over Next 12yr wont look like last. But still sticky biz + generating/returning cash. 5% FCF yield + 3% buyback + 3% real growth should still outperform S&P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792589194331660546)  2024-05-20T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett Thats the problem. Not much imo if that cash gets reinvested in new builds which inevitably leads to the next leg down cycle. While not factored into my thread I do assume thats where most profit will go Not to say that kind of FCF wouldnt bid up the stock price temporarily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792612087170216335)  2024-05-20T17:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett Even though in 04-09 cycle they generated $16B OCF it basically all went to creditors and new builds (and some buybacks which isnt any better). So your only chance of making money is trading the stock. Absolutely shareholder return policy changes valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792635322183926011)  2024-05-20T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett Even Buffett said a business where you control the cash flow is worth more than a business where you dont. $OET is the gold standard for how to play a commodity business cycle. They told you from the start theyre playing a cycle. They got some ships made profits paid it all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792635470360330609)  2024-05-20T19:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CliffEngleLtd @ICBarrett New builds or buybacks in this case are the same. Theyve said theyd consider returning cash once debt is $4-4.5B. If they pay everything out as dividends itd work out nicely. But incentives dictate behavior. If youre looking at those day rates for years you want more rigs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792686586125308225)  2024-05-20T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway @Ultradeep3 @businessgopher @ICBarrett $RIG said $1B+ cost + 5yr minimum lead time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792741127453639014)  2024-05-21T02:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ultradeep3 @businessgopher @FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett Sure new builds would require strong market conditions. But new builds are not bullish haha. All the other companies are already returning cash to shareholders (a lot of buybacks meh) and have solid balance sheets. RIG will take another 2-3 years to clean up theirs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792744544997626149)  2024-05-21T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ultradeep3 @businessgopher @FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett By which point if rates are going as high as people expect the competitors like $VAL who currently say all cash will be returned to shareholders will have a good case to say hey weve been returning cash for a few years now we need to build"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792744619010375724)  2024-05-21T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FoamOnTheRunway @Ultradeep3 @businessgopher @ICBarrett Not for RIG really. Most competitors are already returning cash to shareholders. RIG will be cleaning up its balance sheet for another 2-3. In my thread 70% of their FCF after debt isnt until the last [--] years (2028-30). Not hard to imagine some rigs being delivered around 2030"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792746656724869413)  2024-05-21T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ICBarrett @Ultradeep3 Good comments. Well see what happens. If rates keep going up RIG will be a good trade. But not much intrinsic/terminal value imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792897927834128655)  2024-05-21T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ICBarrett @Ultradeep3 Thread wasnt meant to be complicated. Broad back of envelope to see cash generation ability. Assuming day rates trend towards $1M that FCF through [----] for RIG isnt super impressive really. $WBD does better less risk imo. If cycle goes longer it could be if they pay divs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792899770752618616)  2024-05-21T12:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Unlike offshore drilling $WBD should immediately initiate a buyback. Absurd valuation. Plenty of cash flow to service debt/pay maturities and retire 5% s/o per year with FCF to spare. Unfortunately I think mgmt is more focused on deleveraging to be ready to acquire something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792951607455363096)  2024-05-21T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Czech_investor Disagree there. Discovery cash flow has gone no where except when theyve merged. 2014-17 predictable $2B FCF. Merged with scripps FCF 2018-2020 was $3.2B. Thats always been why they keep merging. They have valuable distribution network but struggle to monetize ie grow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792985081092436197)  2024-05-21T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@UnironicOilBull No real views. Dont follow the space close enough but probably some sort of consolidation play there. I dont like $VAL (or any of them) going all buyback. Prefer dividends in that kind of company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1792986613238104236)  2024-05-21T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is ridiculous. And still getting [--] porn bots following me every day. Theres an easier way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793283621945491856)  2024-05-22T14:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Are there any crypto ETFs with option chains A way to short Bitcoin yet Closest Im aware of is $MSTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793303050251071644)  2024-05-22T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Literally $VFC CEO on the call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793448336080392483)  2024-05-23T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"These $ONEI bots are obnoxious. Cannot block them fast enough. Becoming impossible to search for $WBD And of course the mute word function doesnt apply to search. God I love this platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793723375635800162)  2024-05-23T19:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What if I told you the equity IV of $WBD increased 14% today. $WBD taking advantage of duration with their debt tender https://t.co/Bbq1lqsUqk $WBD taking advantage of duration with their debt tender https://t.co/Bbq1lqsUqk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793749012287541493)  2024-05-23T21:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @BichonRedux @loneelmcapital Not even that much short though. At least not that Ive seen. My best guess is whoever posted the picture of Wall Street EBITDA estimates starting at $13B post merger and continuously revising down. But idk. Valuation doesnt make sense to me here thats for sure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793766967901347859)  2024-05-23T22:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @BichonRedux @loneelmcapital Whatre those numbers from $WBD reported $3.3B and $6.2B for [----] & [----] respectively in their ER. Though theres several different ways to think about about FCF with these media cos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793795131348332832)  2024-05-24T00:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tofdaj @BichonRedux Huh Maturities: 24: $1581.5 25: $3147.1 26: $2289.3 27: $4718.6 If $WBD loses NBA contract + assume that "FCF" declines 30% each year for the next [--] years and $WBD still generates enough "FCF" to pay off all maturities due through [----] (assuming no refinances)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1793995508316528747)  2024-05-24T13:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tofdaj @BichonRedux Oh that also assumes no FCF from DTC even though $WBD targeting $1B EBITDA by YE25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794001131309535496)  2024-05-24T13:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tofdaj @BichonRedux [--] FCF: $5.7B Maturities: $1.6B 25: $5.3B $3.1B 26: $5B $2.3B 27: $4.6B $4.7B 28: $4.3B $1.8B 29: $4B $2.3B $28.9B cumulative FCF vs $15.8B maturities excludes interest expense savings which is 6% CAGR tailwind to FCF for that timeframe + any DTC profitability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794033850345009422)  2024-05-24T15:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TMTAnalystANON @aburd @MattBelloni Well they did redo HBO & Discovery+ apps post merger. Ratings went from [--] to [---] on Apple Store & [---] on Google People are upset about sports from consumer pov. $WBD is looking at it from cost discipline pov If arguing its bad strategic decision they need to put numbers to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794095984479199250)  2024-05-24T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMTAnalystANON @aburd @MattBelloni Its unfortunate that assets have a price. Im glad $WBD isnt willing to spend at any cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794096455243735207)  2024-05-24T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMTAnalystANON @aburd @MattBelloni $PARA down same amount as $WBD since $WBD merger April [----]. Yeah $NFLX doing great because they started streaming transformation in 2007"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794102238635298938)  2024-05-24T20:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@aburd @TMTAnalystANON @MattBelloni Ok. Well hard to comp b/c theyre all a bit different. No doubt WBD is the laggard but $DIS was down 40% vs WBD 60% until Iger went back to DIS. Well see what happens. From my pov theyre being cost disciplined they have a strategy and theyre executing. Well see if it works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794104341176938928)  2024-05-24T20:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Taking these assumptions at face value & assuming current market value multiple on $WBD is "fair value": EBITDA drops $10B to $6B FCF drops $6B to $5B thx to int exp savings from paying off every maturity thru [----] incr equity value 50%+ = 9% CAGR taking all that at face value @TMTAnalystANON @GmwuLocal Idk why that sounds attractive riding a business from $10B EBITDA to $6B EBITDA for [--] years while they use 100% of FCF on debt reduction @TMTAnalystANON @GmwuLocal Idk why that sounds attractive riding a business from $10B EBITDA to $6B EBITDA for [--] years while they use 100% of FCF on debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794225333908210039)  2024-05-25T04:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"(and no they wouldn't tackle debt in a linear fashion). Just simplifying an example to demonstrate the accretive value of deleveraging. also assumes they're paying face value for debt which in real life obv isn't the case A lot can continue to go wrong with $WBD baked in price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794225335619539319)  2024-05-25T04:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BichonRedux @philoinvestor Thats true. And that used to be the huge advantage with $DIS IP. But thats diminished significantly over time imo. You cant milk the old IP for the same returns like they used to. Market is too large and too competitive. Youve got to constantly develop new content"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794409628492865975)  2024-05-25T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AncientSion @Alpaca_Capital Theres a reason why Churchill said he went to bed and slept the sleep of the saved the night after hearing about Pearl Harbor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794751713083068493)  2024-05-26T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NOTFOMO $GEO was a good one. Slower deleveraging (by a long shot) but arguably better (more predictable + tailwinds) business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794764458260144169)  2024-05-26T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Alpaca_Capital @AncientSion Idk I think I taught we joined the war after being attacked. But wouldnt surprise me Americans today dont know anything about history. Would have to hear specifics on your altruistic comments per each event in original post. @JacobAEngel whatd they teach us in school haha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1794852594286047705)  2024-05-26T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TrungTPhan Getting this and attaching GoPro to it for anytime I go out to eat now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795179040858321064)  2024-05-27T19:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$WBD isnt without risk but when no one in the market or industry likes it the risks are usually priced in. The best time to buy something is when no one else wants it. One thing I am confident of: leverage is not an issue. People saying that havent looked. See you at $5 🫡 $WBD is the worst S&P [---] stock of the last [--] years losing -80.71%. See list here 👇 https://t.co/BM1jHoh3jh $WBD is the worst S&P [---] stock of the last [--] years losing -80.71%. See list here 👇 https://t.co/BM1jHoh3jh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795235798788259996)  2024-05-27T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FMetard @FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett Mgmt doesnt have the option to blindly deploy capital right now haha. Imo RIG is a speculative trade not investment. It has little to no terminal or intrinsic value (IV). It wont defy the commodity lifecycle. So buybacks just create demand for shares not IV for shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795578965182345563)  2024-05-28T22:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The reason I make the $RIG investment/speculation point is b/c of Nick Radical types of people. Nothing against him personally. Had several good DM talks with him. He led me to $VNO But he 100% romanticizes his ideas & people tended to eat it up to their ultimate detriment imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795611018036732347)  2024-05-29T00:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"He did it w/ coal real estate & offshore drilling (and I guess more recently pot). These are not high ROIC businesses LT. For a reason. $RIG is not the next [--] year railroad consolidation Warren Buffett play I highly doubt Nick holds for that or hell get wiped out if he does Here Munger asks why some markets with 5-6 competitors like cereal have good industry profitability while others like airlines are horrendous. He says he doesnt fully understand it but lists brand as a factor. What other factors are there https://t.co/fkDIkCb9fc Here Munger asks why some markets with 5-6 competitors like"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795611019588567375)  2024-05-29T00:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Were very lucky to have been in the markets these last few (and probably future) years in commodities. Huge underinvestment and cycle tailwinds But theres a different risk profile between buying something that has intrinsic value and speculating in something that doesnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795611021643849773)  2024-05-29T00:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SIRI should start buying $IHRT debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795617163686064206)  2024-05-29T00:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@nmtuan_14 @FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett I think ESG is losing steam. If $RIG said we are not ever going to place another new build order and will pay 100% of profits from now until judgement day out as dividends. Itd probably be one of my biggest positions. I dont want buybacks. Unfortunate $VAL goes that route"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795643566989119537)  2024-05-29T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@nmtuan_14 @FoamOnTheRunway @ICBarrett So then my est FCF 24YE: $0.3B 25YE: $0.4B 26YE: $0.7B 27YE: $1.2B 28YE: $1.4B (2 reactivations in [--] and [--] in 26) 28YE EBITDA: $2.3Bm x [--] = $14B EV exit multiple - $4.3B debt (mgmt target) Assume no add. dilution. = $10.23/shr + $2.76 dividends 17% IRR from todays price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795828457634681138)  2024-05-29T14:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@theTIKR Berkshire Letters to Shareholders 1965-2023 The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway The Snowball Provides balanced perspective of Buffett. Gives you the only relevant ideas from Graham today. All other value books out there are at best case studies imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1795958904263672079)  2024-05-29T23:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@_triangulate_ $OET.OL $ECO too Access to cash flows (ie divs) is more valuable than buybacks when talking about commodity type businesses where most have little/no terminal value full cycle for equity holders. If just trading stock price could argue buybacks help drive temp demand for shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1796962655141322885)  2024-06-01T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BichonRedux I would like to vote for wired internet. Computer & phone attached to the house. No cell phones etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797049858135667118)  2024-06-01T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$4/mo for WSJ Barrons and MarketWatch. Its amazing $NWSA generates as much cash as they do when people can go their whole lives resubscribing with the discount prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797408007330095589)  2024-06-02T23:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If your trade or investment hinges on public awareness to succeed thats stock manipulation. Even if its not legally prosecutable. Not sure why this is so hard to comprehend. And citing other morally grey/borderline illegal areas in the market is not a great defense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797743073314984041)  2024-06-03T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I should footnote that as we were taught in middle school celebrities dont have all the same rights as ordinary citizens in certain instances. Ie. I can meme about $WBD because no one gives a fuck. Im not famous. It wont do anything Hello kitty is. He knows he can move GME"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797743856211104204)  2024-06-03T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@loneelmcapital Youll be rich enough by then you dont need to do it anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797744706455290211)  2024-06-03T21:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@loneelmcapital But yeah plenty of grey area. Is an analyst upgrade/downgrade market manipulation It can be. But [--] shades of grey. Thats why I say just dont go anywhere near it. If you have enough clout to move markets just stay out of the public PR space ie Buffett style"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1797746023009566983)  2024-06-03T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Really dont understand $LSXMA $LSXMK $SIRI price action. Starting to offer some pretty attractive value. One of these days Ill buy some"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798038760363573568)  2024-06-04T17:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Fwiw according to a Forbes consumer survey Max is one of the least likely services to be cancelled over price hikes (Netflix Hulu Disney+ most likely). $WBD Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD just increased the price for its ad-free versions of Max Beginning today the ad-free Max will raise in price from $15.99 to $16.99 per month and the annual plan will rise from $149.99 to $169.99 - Variety https://t.co/fgwwO097Wr Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD just increased the price for its ad-free versions of Max Beginning today the ad-free Max will raise in price from $15.99 to $16.99 per month and the annual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798042288419197117)  2024-06-04T17:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@askmehowe Why Siri vs the Liberty tracking at a discount since itll convert Q3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798084474078642259)  2024-06-04T20:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@askmehowe Its splitting hairs but 84/81 is misleading. If we want 1k shares of new SIRI we can A: buy 1k $SIRI @ $2.56 = $2560 cost & $2560 market value post transaction assume unch. stock price or B: buy [---] $LSXMK @ $20.95 = $2493 cost & $2560 market value Same result diff cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798385378732474680)  2024-06-05T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@askmehowe Also more upside potential re exchange ratio depending how you calculate it. Because the strike price on the convertible debt is OTM. So depending on how you read/recalculate the exchange ratio could be as high as [--]. Ie [---] $LSXMK @ $20.95 = $2346 cost & $2580 market value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798388600670917018)  2024-06-05T16:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CorneliaLake What bankruptcy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798435759206363399)  2024-06-05T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@david_katunaric @CCM_Brett For me Guinness on tap (in Europe only) is hard to beat taste-wise. But there are a lot of great tasting beers on tap. Its like wine its hard to really have a favorite except out of necessity that theres so many choices you just choose one to stick with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798436681865158966)  2024-06-05T19:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CorneliaLake Also - and Im not offended even though Im long $WBD - I cant help but laugh you calling out Zaslav right after buying $NMM. I owned NMM previously (profitably) but its hard to find a CEO who is more self serving or cares less about shareholder wellbeing than Frangou"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798438038936387653)  2024-06-05T19:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EventuallyWLTHY As for the talent they produce the second highest award winning shows and movies year after year behind Netflix. What is FuboTVs talent aside from simply existing just because it can (temporarily)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798499415097053345)  2024-06-05T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You good $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798755962528108960)  2024-06-06T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Good article except for the WBD is still struggling with $40 billion in debt. line $WBD $WBD An NBA deal is going to happen imo. Never thought of the complexity of unravelling relationship with TNT. Zaslav gets a cheaper package maintain carriages rates w/ TNT so margins still look good; and NBA gets to safe face and not axe a great partnership. NFA/DYOR $WBD An NBA deal is going to happen imo. Never thought of the complexity of unravelling relationship with TNT. Zaslav gets a cheaper package maintain carriages rates w/ TNT so margins still look good; and NBA gets to safe face and not axe a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798760997483892739)  2024-06-06T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Caseyface515 @EventuallyWLTHY Sure. A monopoly is a single business which dominates a market where theres no alternatives giving it complete control of that market. Which would be an accurate description of $WBD if there wasnt $NFLX $DIS $PARA $FUBO $CMCSA $GOOG $AMZN $AAPL probably still missing some"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798791286096581111)  2024-06-06T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JebediahJohnsen @Caseyface515 @EventuallyWLTHY Again not a monopoly lol. Oligopolies on the other hand have been known to collude in price fixing. Which is what Fubo is arguing A monopoly is a single firm with complete control. Even though there would be a JV its controlled by [--] companies so not a monopoly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798866272773624090)  2024-06-06T23:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StockMarketNerd $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1798911018313375930)  2024-06-07T02:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@loneelmcapital Im not a fan of ginger beer. I cant even drink Crabbies by itself. But something about the lemon & lime makes it the most refreshing summer drink. Tried substituting with a couple other ginger beers and couldnt drink them. Going to try horsefeather though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1799438401596465497)  2024-06-08T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TBifford This was my strategy playing Halo 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1799489713801228494)  2024-06-08T17:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BigTechAlert @elonmusk @NicolaiTang1 Elon treats this like changing his relationship status on Facebook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1799896150054735928)  2024-06-09T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Send this to everyone in Somalia. Getting rich without getting lucky: https://t.co/5odo2pbX6e Getting rich without getting lucky: https://t.co/5odo2pbX6e"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1799915426605932604)  2024-06-09T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Everyone complains about Zaslavs comp. $NFLX co-CEOs 23: $3m + $2.9m salaries 22: $20m + $16m salaries 21: $20m + 12m salaries $PARA Bakish $3.1m/yr salary $WBD Zaslav $3m/yr salary Only thing that sets Zaslav apart is the $200m options.which have strikes of $27-43/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800272672875819189)  2024-06-10T21:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"All the equity awards across all the companies ( $FOXA $CMCSA etc) are pretty standard. All-in comp for most execs is $30m +/- couple mm I guess people just upset the stock is down. Or they dont know Zaslav doesnt get the $200m unless stock goes up multiples from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800273807384686659)  2024-06-10T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FND short postmortem In 10yrs youll look back & sayIve made some decent moneyBUTinto Aug. 2022-2023 time period youll think wow do I wish Id sold that stock at $79 on July 28th I believe FY23 is likely to be a disaster of a year for $FND. The disaster year: $FND Short Thesis https://t.co/j7hZqR4tdI https://t.co/jgwBn9cwy2 $FND Short Thesis https://t.co/j7hZqR4tdI https://t.co/jgwBn9cwy2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800600050873323826)  2024-06-11T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Correction: three $PARA Two Twitter arenas I refuse to enter: $MTCH and foot fungus Two Twitter arenas I refuse to enter: $MTCH and foot fungus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800623911887077498)  2024-06-11T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MadisonLackey44 The problem isnt the value its the politics. Idk how anyone can assign any sort of degree of certainty on how $PARA plays out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800627322594201835)  2024-06-11T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VOL_Vulture Hahah well at least you know yourself. And for better or worse neither of us have much to worry about being put in that position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800634650722766886)  2024-06-11T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC Tobacco with cannabis to an extent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800951741145547055)  2024-06-12T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC Social media/tech going into payments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800963450551583078)  2024-06-12T18:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dirtcheapstocks @turtlebay_io Also Teledyne options commodities. And most importantly leverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1800981166763442595)  2024-06-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If Zaslav pays $15B for CBS my $WBD equity is fuqt When a SOTP analysis says that $PARA is worth $40 but the stock is trading at $10 perhaps there is a problem with the analysis There is so much wrong with this. https://t.co/S474jq8qm3 When a SOTP analysis says that $PARA is worth $40 but the stock is trading at $10 perhaps there is a problem with the analysis There is so much wrong with this. https://t.co/S474jq8qm3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801056692584542449)  2024-06-13T00:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@BichonRedux Do you know where thats from Hard to justify those multiples imo. Esp when theyre not getting bids anywhere near that. There is value. I dont see bankruptcy (havent really checked their debt). Worst case imo is no sale and stock just flounders into the abyss haha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801064641289732343)  2024-06-13T01:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SleepwellCap @CCM_Brett I think overall brand importance to consumers has diminished significantly over time is why people see it as the weakest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801272093176127873)  2024-06-13T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$WBD https://t.co/nbdurYSCPD https://t.co/nbdurYSCPD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801312424680665233)  2024-06-13T17:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@JoeDoeKnowsGuy @BichonRedux Nah $NFLX has more than twice the EBITDA as $WBD and higher normalized FCF. Less revenue better margins etc. Dont remember off top of my head $PARA but I think it was less than half WBD normalized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801399144226979977)  2024-06-13T23:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BichonRedux @JoeDoeKnowsGuy Im just saying none of them are comparable to the underlying earnings power of $NFLX. $WBD $PARA have a long ways to go before we have that conversation. Luckily it doesnt matter because youre getting more cash flow per dollar spent than buying Netflix albeit a bit more hair"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1801400170782879962)  2024-06-13T23:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Idk if you heard but Waren Buffet added to his $OXY position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1803123517619126667)  2024-06-18T17:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Ffs its called a movie theater. $NFLX Netflix $NFLX has announced the cities planned for its in-person experience venues: https://t.co/VZguZyiSf0 Netflix $NFLX has announced the cities planned for its in-person experience venues: https://t.co/VZguZyiSf0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1803160616112435276)  2024-06-18T20:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Doodled around with xmind since I cant wrap my head around anything else rn $DIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1803823808052146683)  2024-06-20T16:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I hate comparisons like this but I hate Tesla more so $WBD earns half as much revenue and generates twice as much cash flow as Tesla And dont get me started on the executive comp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1803871448852783184)  2024-06-20T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NFLX FY2011-23 CAGRs Diluted EBIT/Share: 24% Diluted EPS: 26% Diluted OCF/Share: 24% Stock Price: 25%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804000812038775245)  2024-06-21T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Discovery FY2008-21 Diluted OIBDA/Share: 8% Diluted EPS: 8% Diluted FCF/Share: 9% Stock Price: 9% $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804206353080041553)  2024-06-21T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ReturnsJourney You couldve bought $AXP in the early 70s for over 40x earnings or 10x earnings a couple years later. And yet today the returns would be within 2% of each other. Same applies for repurchases. Good companies can overpay for shares today but be good roic over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804307588596564451)  2024-06-22T00:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@walter_bascom Just skimming they had $8B intangible asset DTL YE23 down from $9.5B YE22 and -$2.3B line item on cash flow statement so my short answer would be yes but will look closer tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804398498097365442)  2024-06-22T06:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is just saying look backwards instead of forwards. Best to be present and fuck the rest. [--]. https://t.co/Mmtk7zUo0J [--]. https://t.co/Mmtk7zUo0J"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804549039255355581)  2024-06-22T16:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I dont understand this one on many different levels but they should both be squiggly lines [--]. https://t.co/13V7S2fanE [--]. https://t.co/13V7S2fanE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804549041419665511)  2024-06-22T16:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Got my Robinhood account reactivated. Used it back in 2015-early [----] Kinda fun looking at old activity $BRK.B @ $135-144 $LNG @ $25-40 $UNP @ $78-90 Actually really like the app being able to see the old companies that are no longer listed but see your activity history of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1804969044849688799)  2024-06-23T20:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Feeling cute might delete later. $BORR $DO $NE $RIG $SDRL $VAL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1805090154782077212)  2024-06-24T04:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Cumulative cash generated per share: $263 Cumulative cash spent (ie content): $264 $NFLX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1805987931435241767)  2024-06-26T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I thought Zaslav was axing everything $WBD Streamers are cutting original shows: https://t.co/1GCuZ9khHj Streamers are cutting original shows: https://t.co/1GCuZ9khHj"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1805999278202220747)  2024-06-26T16:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Barchart @JerryCap Wen $META 2.0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806033832736661924)  2024-06-26T18:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@philoinvestor 1) I dont own $PARA 2) you try to differentiate between bets and investing in your substack and your Twitter feed is constant commentary on currency and NVDA (which youre short) price moments. 3) every other point is the mainstream narrative ie everyone knows. 4) youve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806329804276330812)  2024-06-27T14:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@philoinvestor mentioned the debt before but like people did with $VNO they never explain specifically with numbers how/when it becomes a problem. Yes its a big absolute number. Its also an incredibly long ways from being a problem unless you want to convince me otherwise Some numbers on $WBD primarily surrounding debt & NBA/TNT. TL;DR version is assume $WBD loses NBA contract + assume that "FCF" declines 30% each year for the next [--] years and $WBD still generates enough "FCF" to pay off all maturities due through [----] (assuming no refinances). Some numbers on $WBD primarily surrounding debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806330256158024002)  2024-06-27T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade Size of capex red flag because theyre underspending or over spending International Max rollout debt reduction official settlement around sports etc theres some possible inflections but Im find holding a few years while they deleverage I hate the business/industry fyi ha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806333421511180628)  2024-06-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade I think thats a fair assessment. And fwiw Id more or less argue content spend : maintenance capex is 1:1. Any of them who stop rolling cash flow into content for too long ultimately die. So for ex Netflix you have this perpetual growth of cash flow you cant really extract"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806380137593602110)  2024-06-27T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade So in that case what is free cash flow or whats it worth if its not really free On the other hand how do you argue Netflix isnt worth anything In the case of WBD the Discovery portion actually does produce real FCF because they were a low cost producer. Their problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806380419409154257)  2024-06-27T17:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade was they couldnt grow. So you had this annuity you could only grow through acquisitions. But now that FCF can be used internally Theres uncertainty. I just think a lot of it is priced in. Im expecting cash flow to decline. But at a certain price thats okay. I can wait"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806381210752704915)  2024-06-27T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade I hate quoting Buffett & Munger but it really does seem to me the perfect example of the horse racing analogy. You dont go to the track and bet on the horse most likely to win because everyone knows. You look for the mispriced bet. Thats how I view WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806382694982734053)  2024-06-27T17:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade I tried small position in [--] but bailed at 10% loss & have just watched. Now seems better inflection point/risks more priced in WBD trades at 2.6x FY23 EV/cash flow. NFLX is 15.3x Plenty of space for WBD to go up/Netflix down w/out being priced equivalently WBD @ 4x is +67%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806416700918702498)  2024-06-27T19:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RecoveryTrade Sorry WBD at 4x EV/cash flow assuming 20% decline from [----] levels is +67% return from here. Again I dont really know what any of them are worth. But at a certain point it seems like theres a lot baked in. Cash generation is real. HBO makes great content imo 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806417379309605144)  2024-06-27T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This hits different @loneelmcapital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806509103415459968)  2024-06-28T02:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@loneelmcapital Although in this case doesnt sound like Biden even had arguments. Anyways thats all the political tweeting Im doing this year. Good luck everybody"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806509602965492025)  2024-06-28T02:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@neverhedgecap Imo its difficult to differentiate between luck & skill especially when it comes to retail. As Buffett said they do great for some time you think you judged correctly & then it nosedives. Sustain LT is relative. $TJX has done a great job but not really apples to apples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1806717342333751670)  2024-06-28T15:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Im not familiar with investment/retirement products. But Im looking at a S&P [---] (1-Year Index Term) interest crediting performance-triggered annuity that guarantees 8% any year the market is positive and retains cumulative principal if the market goes down. 5-year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807083096191209727)  2024-06-29T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For those keeping score at home top [--] was: $WBD : [--] + [--] intl ( $AMZN MGM US) A24: [--] US + [--] intl $NFLX : [--] $CMCSA : [--] intl [--] misc never heard of -Top 20- Add in $DIS : [--] $CMCSA : [--] [--] misc never heard of We asked over [---] critics/filmmakers to name the best films of [----] so far. DUNE: PART TWO was #1 FURIOSA #2 and CHALLENGERS #3 Poll Results: https://t.co/H2DZNVDJZM https://t.co/l0ReZTtKXV We asked over [---] critics/filmmakers to name the best films of [----] so far. DUNE: PART TWO was #1 FURIOSA #2 and CHALLENGERS #3 Poll Results: https://t.co/H2DZNVDJZM https://t.co/l0ReZTtKXV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807493801751007532)  2024-06-30T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"From [----]. Surprisingly half a century later there is still no consensus beyond the most primitive of uses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807644208368382182)  2024-07-01T05:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807804215214948577)  2024-07-01T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"lol @sprucepointcap Calls on Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway to Explain Its Investment Rationale for Owning $480 Million of Floor & Decor Stock Given our Research Findings $FND"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807857951560159528)  2024-07-01T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@deepvalueco Thats where Ive been spending a lot of my time lately but Im not in any rushgut feeling is these reasonable GARP names may stay reasonable longer than people expect. Not that thatd stop me from buying now but will enter slowly. I dont mind holding stuff like $WBD in size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1807923809581699096)  2024-07-01T23:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@safe_our_souls Interested based on fact this got zero likes. What could be better or more boring than a bicycle monopoly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808282264075219104)  2024-07-02T23:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@safe_our_souls In Poland"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808282643408228490)  2024-07-02T23:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PAYC FY2011 $57M revenue $1.5M EBIT 45M s/o FY2023 $1694M revenue $450M EBIT 58M s/o"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808505374070251927)  2024-07-03T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BF.A 1937-Present CAGRs (approx) Sales: 8% Operating Income: 9% Net Income: 9% BV: 9% Market Cap: 11% Proof gallons sold: 6% Margins Gross Margins 50% 60% Operating Margins 7% 27% Net Margins 5% 19%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808556925207896279)  2024-07-03T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ginkgo_cap Why $V over $MA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808584495546658903)  2024-07-03T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New $WBD long thesis just dropped Nothing worth forecasting can be forecasted Anything that can be forecasted isnt worth forecasting Nothing worth forecasting can be forecasted Anything that can be forecasted isnt worth forecasting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1808661892228891103)  2024-07-04T00:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"People talk about Zaslav being a failure over a merger that took place just 2yrs ago. Was poorly timed but has more to do w/ industry headwinds than actual CEO (hes not in charge of $PARA). They never talk about the 14yrs before that Zaslav grew Discoverys worth at 11%. $WBD @banana_capital_ You have that mountain of debt and a CEO who thus far has been all hat and no cattle--a dismal failure. @banana_capital_ You have that mountain of debt and a CEO who thus far has been all hat and no cattle--a dismal failure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1809273538949575170)  2024-07-05T17:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Dont get me started on debt for nth time. Can argue Zaslav enjoyed tailwinds at Discovery. Now headwinds at WBD. In which case hes not the problem. Or argue grew value at Discovery for 14yrs as a PTC & therefore should probably be given more than [--] to see how $WBD plays out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1809275527875719339)  2024-07-05T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@theyhatemetoo @banana_capital_ [--] years ago Its a low cost producer. Generated real excess FCF right up to the merger. Their problem was having no way to grow it so it just spit out steady cash they used for acquisitions and buybacks. Now that engine is internal to $WBD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1809418900049691078)  2024-07-06T02:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Does this not tell you everything you need to know about betting on a fair outcome for $PARA shareholders And deal doesnt close until sometime 1H 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1810336391093424136)  2024-07-08T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Bought $SNX $WPP 5% positions each Also bought $NLOP funded from selling $CRON $OGI (at losses)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1810376351138144412)  2024-07-08T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$WBD Spent six years making this sucker . Hope you guys enjoy. Coming to HBO on July [--] https://t.co/ggRYkZUoTo Spent six years making this sucker . Hope you guys enjoy. Coming to HBO on July [--] https://t.co/ggRYkZUoTo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1810383170761593292)  2024-07-08T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@deepvalueco @lasse108 Your capital should always be put to its highestand best use. Taxes is an input into that. Its a constant game of opportunity cost. Agree doing more can negative. But would also be skeptical of anyone claiming to have so many opportunities simultaneously they cant weigh them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1811054563786367452)  2024-07-10T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MasaSonCap What about $CMCSA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1811087654122897676)  2024-07-10T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Anyone know of companies (large small US international et al) that publish all their annual reports/letters on their website from inception Primarily companies that have been around longer/public than 1990s. $BF.A $BF.B $FDX $JDW.L $LOW $LUV $WMT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/lundeen_ne/status/1811115494998450320)  2024-07-10T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing