# ![@kurtsaltrichter Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2500179804.png) @kurtsaltrichter Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® posts on X about stocks, inflation, fed, $spx the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/interactions)
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- [--] Week [-------] -42%
- [--] Month [-------] +106%
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- [--] Year [---------] -51%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] -41%
- [--] Month [---] +158%
- [--] Months [---] +62%
- [--] Year [---] -20%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +0.35%
- [--] Month [------] +1.50%
- [--] Months [------] +11%
- [--] Year [------] +24%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::2500179804/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2500179804/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [us election](/list/us-election) 

**Social topic influence**
[stocks](/topic/stocks) #3767, [inflation](/topic/inflation), [fed](/topic/fed), [$spx](/topic/$spx) #231, [spx](/topic/spx) #366, [vix](/topic/vix) #507, [$vix](/topic/$vix) #150, [rates](/topic/rates), [longterm](/topic/longterm), [debt](/topic/debt)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@leadlagreport](/creator/undefined) [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@sirrx0](/creator/undefined) [@10009nyny](/creator/undefined) [@nyse](/creator/undefined) [@fullfieldflicks](/creator/undefined) [@michael22568778](/creator/undefined) [@marketsleuth](/creator/undefined) [@stockstormx](/creator/undefined) [@belikejustin](/creator/undefined) [@ploutoncapllc](/creator/undefined) [@distinctalerts](/creator/undefined) [@storedalpha](/creator/undefined) [@ianonpatriot](/creator/undefined) [@garyhaubold](/creator/undefined) [@georgesperron](/creator/undefined) [@unusualwhales](/creator/undefined) [@joepavlos](/creator/undefined) [@youngmogul4life](/creator/undefined) [@nminvestments](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)](/topic/$gold) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)](/topic/$arkk) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Optimism (OP)](/topic/optimism) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [iShares BTC Trust (IBIT)](/topic/$ibit)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Global equities experienced their worst week in more than a year. Worries about slowing post-COVID demand and rising rates fueled the selloff. Pandemic stocks were some of the hardest hit with Shopify and Netflix dropping 35.3% and 33.5% respectively. #stocks $NFLX $SHOP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1485673797265018884)  2022-01-24T18:00Z 38.8K followers, [--] engagements


"Gold $GLD is looking like the market's safe haven asset of choice here with Treasury prices declining and #bitcoin in a downtrend. It's on a nice 3-week run so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1493955017572761602)  2022-02-16T14:26Z 38.8K followers, [--] engagements


"@POTUS Stop calling it an inflation reduction act. It is a stimulus bill that will make inflation more sticky. Literally contradicts the name of the bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1610406088947499008)  2023-01-03T22:41Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"The total U.S. national debt is over $31 trillion. It is an absolute certainty the debt ceiling will be raised. This will be the 79th time the US will raise the debt ceiling since [----]. If a publicly traded company did this it would be considered massive corporate fraud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1616185685626523661)  2023-01-19T21:27Z 39K followers, 400.7K engagements


"Good morning to everyone but the Fed who printed us into this situation and is now going to keep raising rates until economic growth is completely choked off and the global capital markets crash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1617482296264908802)  2023-01-23T11:20Z 39K followers, 41.5K engagements


"📈📉 The entry price for long-term returns is volatility so you should expect it. Market corrections are not a surprise. There have been [--] periods in history where we saw 30-40% drawbacks in a single year: [----] [----] [----] [----] and 2008"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1629537968980369412)  2023-02-25T17:45Z 38.5K followers, [---] engagements


"What do many of the categories in red have in common Government intervention. Healthcare and Education prices have skyrocketed at a much faster rate than inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1630195049123262468)  2023-02-27T13:16Z 39K followers, 38.4K engagements


"$KBW Bank index drops 20%. Worst weekly drop since March [----]. Revolving credit event looks likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1634300999295959040)  2023-03-10T21:11Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"I don't care if the Fed raised rates by [--] basis point or [----] basis points. The Fed is still raising rates. There is no such thing as a "dovish" rate hike. And STOP saying a Fed pivot is bullish for stocks. Based on history when the Fed pivots stocks crash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1638641024556847106)  2023-03-22T20:37Z 39K followers, 337.4K engagements


"$NKE sales soared to $12.3bn last quarter inventory remains near-record high up 53% in [--] years. And $ADDYY is struggling with its inventory thanks to $1.3bn of unsold Yeezy stock after cutting ties with Kanye West"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1640024565806923779)  2023-03-26T16:15Z 38.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Record-high Google search volume for 'yield' 'Treasury Bill' and 'Certificates of Deposit' suggests growing interest in these investment options. Search activity for 'money market' also at highest since [----]. $BIL $SNAXX $TLT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1644331695154376714)  2023-04-07T13:30Z 37.6K followers, [---] engagements


"JPMorgan clients believe commercial real estate will be the cause of the next market crisis. $BREIT $BX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1644747003518132227)  2023-04-08T17:00Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"🚨 Industrial manufacturing and commercial construction is falling. $LUMBER has been signaling this for a while now. Fastenals earnings show falling sales to commercial customers. Real estate leads the stock market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1647238379090616320)  2023-04-15T14:00Z 37.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Random length $LUMBER prices take a dip OSB climbs and plywood stays steady. Lumber Composite: $417/mbf Structural Panel Index: $539/msf. North Central & South Eastern OSB up while Southern plywood remains flat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1657415489977458689)  2023-05-13T16:00Z 37.9K followers, [---] engagements


"$LUMBER prices are a tad lower OSB up plywood steady. Canada's production dip doesn't faze cautious buyers working down inventories amid sluggish demand. OSB prices rise but at a slower pace while plywood holds steady for [--] weeks. Watch: $PCH $WY $LPX $BCC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1657762915561140225)  2023-05-14T15:00Z 37.9K followers, [---] engagements


"$LUMBER futures trading dwindled as prices soared and risk ballooned. New contract launched to draw more traders. Downward trending lumber prices has been proven to be an early signal that housing prices are about to drop. Housing leads stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1657792918256484355)  2023-05-14T17:00Z 37.9K followers, [---] engagements


"In addition to $GLD and $AAAU our bullish outlook extends to Gold Miners $GDX and Newmont Corporation $NEM the largest gold mining company worldwide. While commodities as a whole underperform in this declining growth environment $GOLD tends to shine as the flight to safety trade happens. Its safe-haven appeal shines brightest during periods of historically declining real rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1665392292616708097)  2023-06-04T16:17Z 38.6K followers, [---] engagements


"$BTC $ETH and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index all made their all-time on November [--] 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1665871252232237063)  2023-06-06T00:00Z 38K followers, [---] engagements


"Value stocks could outperform growth if profits bottomed out in Q2. Since [----] value has led growth by over 7.5% annually and still has upside potential. Small cap value $VBR is up 10% YTD with appealing relative valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1698501261144858999)  2023-09-04T01:00Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"$483 outflow from top oil ETP $BRNT amid surging crude prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1701732962461474825)  2023-09-12T23:02Z 38.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Treasuries are on a roll. Witnessing their longest inflow streak in over a decade with [--] consecutive weeks. Also they're pacing for a record year with a whopping $144bn inflows YTD. This streak suggests heightened investor preference for safety amidst uncertain markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1703181990810308783)  2023-09-16T23:00Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Short positions in US Treasuries hit the highest levels EVER. And ever is a long time. This is setting the stage for vicious rally if a waterfall short-covering rally occurs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1709206757388566649)  2023-10-03T14:00Z 39K followers, 615.2K engagements


"Seconds ago our long-term RiskSIGNAL flipped red telling us to start raising cash. The last time signal flipped red was mid January of [----] and the market sold off another 20% The time before that was March [--] [----] and the market sold off another 30%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1712101032388383083)  2023-10-11T13:41Z 39K followers, 390K engagements


"Job openings are dropping like every other recession. This time is different No its not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1713638394318737811)  2023-10-15T19:30Z 38.9K followers, 37.2K engagements


"We remain in 50-60% cash and short-term bonds since our October 11th sell signal. Our equity exposure remains in low vol and equal-weight ETFs with sector exposure to utilities Gold Anti-Beta and Energy. $BIL $TBIL $TFLO $SPLV $RSP $BTAL $XLU $GLD $RORO $XLE Seconds ago our long-term RiskSIGNAL flipped red telling us to start raising cash. The last time signal flipped red was mid January of [----] and the market sold off another 20% The time before that was March [--] [----] and the market sold off another 30%. https://t.co/RDwpAvsGdF Seconds ago our long-term RiskSIGNAL flipped red telling us to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1714341369345413491)  2023-10-17T18:03Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Tell me without telling me were in a credit event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1715122954739085790)  2023-10-19T21:49Z 39K followers, 100.1K engagements


"🚨The yield curve is rapidly moving back up. History whispers a warning from the last three recessions: When the 10s2s crosses zero and continues to trend north stocks are either crashing or about to crash. Our October 11th sell signal is still firmly red"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1715452658570432813)  2023-10-20T19:39Z 39K followers, 76.9K engagements


"This is turning into the PERFECT set up for a major stock market crash this month possibly as early as Monday. The sequencing and the set up is so textbook perfect it has me questioning if it will happen or not. Only time will tell: you never know youre in a crash until after it happens. Well continue to sit fat and happy on our giant pile of cash and short-term bonds (since October 11th) until the RiskSIGNAL tells us differently. Godspeed to buy and pray investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1715506545650204792)  2023-10-20T23:13Z 38.9K followers, 72.6K engagements


"Last week's Hedge Fund US Primebook crowned Consumer Discretionary as the most net bought sector hitting its highest mark since Dec '21 with long buys fueling the surge This market has no idea what it wants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1721965950537228496)  2023-11-07T19:00Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"This rally is a trap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1730658048463565055)  2023-12-01T18:40Z 38.9K followers, 138.1K engagements


"@Cernovich Lets be honest most Americans couldnt find Ukraine on a map"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732615479561208195)  2023-12-07T04:18Z 39K followers, 100.9K engagements


"Crude Oil signals are loud and clear - a recession is incoming. Time to increase exposure to Treasuries $TLT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1732884340785242254)  2023-12-07T22:06Z 39K followers, 46.4K engagements


"Portfolio risks are the highest level since before the Great Recession. Historical data since [----] shows: [--] yield curve inversions [--] followed by recessions & bear markets. The current inversion the deepest in [--] years signals caution. Data speaks louder than drama"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1733897622484656202)  2023-12-10T17:13Z 39K followers, 48.1K engagements


"Fundamentally speaking for the S&P [---] to justify the current levels we need to see both: 1) Confirmation of a soft landing (which has not happened yet) 2) Inflation back near 2% (which also has not happened yet) The current rally is purely based on falling yields and Fed speak. At current valuation levels the market is pricing in an absurdly optimistic version of a macro-economic utopia and if that doesn't become reality soon (history tells us it usually doesn't) then we could easily see the $SPX take a 5-7% nosedive and no one should be surprised"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1737145425927291320)  2023-12-19T16:18Z 39K followers, 148.7K engagements


"Take a look at this chart which shows that the ongoing rally in stocks following the yield curve inversion has reached a historic high surpassing 24% (red line) and outdoing the pre-GFC rally of 2006-2007. This is indicating that officially something is different this time. Yet this doesn't guarantee a different end result. While we're witnessing a record-breaking rally post-inversion the future remains unpredictable. Considering the yield curve's consistent success in predicting recessions and the following equity bear markets since the 1950s history says the risk of a significant and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1739762812887404644)  2023-12-26T21:39Z 38.9K followers, 391K engagements


"@BlackTh0ught @hightesto @leadlagreport @NelsonCoverCFP . @leadlagreport fund $RORO is outperforming the $SPX YTD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1740084580311585073)  2023-12-27T18:57Z 37.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Emerging markets small caps are an appealing option outperforming broad EM equities and US small caps by 1.5% per year since [----]. With $EWX trading at 12.4x forward earnings it's an attractive choice to benefit from a weaker dollar and a favorable global macro backdrop. $EEM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1742168956402610546)  2024-01-02T13:00Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Client just sent me this screenshot from their unemployed brother in law"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742277093407293911)  2024-01-02T20:10Z 38.9K followers, 837.3K engagements


"Housing affordability is at the lowest level in [--] years. While this doesn't mean much by itself housing however is a leading indicator for stocks. Watch $LUMBER for signs of deteriorating conditions in housing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1757870059463102623)  2024-02-14T20:50Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


""A Fed pivot is bullish for stocks" "An inverted yield curve doesn't mean a recession is coming" Based on history when the Fed pivots with an inverted yield curve stocks crash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759627094311501861)  2024-02-19T17:12Z 39K followers, 192.3K engagements


"We're experiencing one of the largest bubbles in history with concentration levels surpassing those seen during the Great Depression. This will end worse than [----] and 2008"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1770504586630926638)  2024-03-20T17:36Z 38.9K followers, 99.7K engagements


"Based on history every time we have an inverted yield curve paired with a flattening Fed funds rate the economy is heading into a recession. This time is not different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1770812986510205326)  2024-03-21T14:01Z 38.9K followers, 74.3K engagements


"Why You Should Care About the Yen Carry Trade Last week the yen hit a 34-year low against the greenback signaling much more than just currency volatility. Here's a deep dive into how this could massively impact your portfolio 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1775171880476889489)  2024-04-02T14:42Z 39K followers, 73.6K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CPI REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1777694566398718025)  2024-04-09T13:46Z 39K followers, 1.4M engagements


"CAPITAL PRESERVATION SHOULD BE YOUR #1 OBJECTIVE FOR 2024-2025 The media continues to focus more and more on AI and raised year-end targets for the S&P [---] and less and less on the yield curve. Given the significant and extended inversion of the yield curve and deteriorating long-term price action in the S&P [---] preserving your hard-earned capital should be priority number one. The four most dangerous words in investing are its different this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785040790336520558)  2024-04-29T20:17Z 39K followers, 48.6K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785355487908642915)  2024-04-30T17:08Z 39K followers, 1.3M engagements


"ETF Investment Options: You can gain exposure to the GRANOLAS via European ETFs such as: JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF $BBEU (23% GRANOLAS) iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF $IEUR (20% GRANOLAS) Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF $VGK and SPDR Portfolio Europe ETF $SPEU (19% GRANOLAS)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1788592195177447856)  2024-05-09T15:29Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Worried about exchange rate risk The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund $HEDJ hedges against currency fluctuations and offers strong GRANOLAS exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1788592198922957005)  2024-05-09T15:29Z 38.9K followers, [---] engagements


"The lack of confirmation for new record highs in $SPX is a major divergence that can't be ignored. Historically this has preceded corrective volatility in marketsseen in [----] [----] [----] and 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1792627219333824685)  2024-05-20T18:43Z 39K followers, 82.5K engagements


"Every two years since [----] the $SPX has advanced to new all-time highs without the weekly RSI confirming. Three out of four times this divergence led to a 20%+ decline. Will [----] be different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1795558161732038950)  2024-05-28T20:50Z 39K followers, 105.2K engagements


"The alarm bells are ringing but will anyone listen before it's too late Historically yield curve inversions have consistently preceded economic downturns and financial system turmoil. This chart clearly indicates restrictive Fed policy posing serious concerns for risk assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797740841890414844)  2024-06-03T21:23Z 39K followers, 58.1K engagements


"Texas has its own ETF $TXS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1798201926703870055)  2024-06-05T03:55Z 38.8K followers, [----] engagements


"We added exposure to Biotech stocks today. Three that I find attractive $MRK $REGN $MRNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1798712715592303075)  2024-06-06T13:45Z 38.5K followers, [----] engagements


"After hitting new record highs last week the NASDAQ index just fell below its tight uptrend channel off the April lows. RSI failed to confirm the latest highs which is an ongoing concern regarding the resilient [----] rally. It's not a major sell signal (yet). $QQQ $IXIC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1813650133277446365)  2024-07-17T19:01Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The @WSJ visual highlights the significant shift from mega-cap tech to the broader market: $NVDA is down 12.5% while the Russell [----] $RUT is up over 5% in less than two weeks. $MGK $IWM $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1815748411640967320)  2024-07-23T13:58Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"BOJ Intervention Practically BOJ intervention means they are buying $JPY in the open market which increases its value. Now let's explore how this impacts the markets especially if the yen carry trade is starting to reverse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1816848462966562932)  2024-07-26T14:50Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"What is the Yen Carry Trade The yen carry trade involves selling short Japanese government bonds $JGB and using the proceeds to buy risk assets like stocks emerging market debt commodities crypto and even U.S. corporate and government bonds. This trade has been popular for over two decades due to BOJ's low interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1816848466687009260)  2024-07-26T14:50Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1818319662288908485)  2024-07-30T16:16Z 39K followers, 1.7M engagements


"Last week we increased our cash levels to 30% by cutting $SPXL high-beta bubble-cap tech stocks small caps and biotech. We still have our core positions in $QQQ and $MGK exposure since our long-term signal remains green. We also added $TLT and $XLU last week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1820429801833877636)  2024-08-05T12:01Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I am still calling bullshit on this rally. It has all the signs of a fake-out. Institutions are selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821296606895075586)  2024-08-07T21:25Z 39K followers, 48.7K engagements


"The $SPX is testing its resistance around 5450-5500 and I expect this will be followed by broader market weakness. A downside gap to [----] is still in play"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823442174492459491)  2024-08-13T19:31Z 39K followers, 105.3K engagements


"The Fed is not cutting rates anytime soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1824175760095187109)  2024-08-15T20:06Z 38.9K followers, 35.2K engagements


"Long-term outperformance comes from sidestepping major market drawdowns and bear markets. The lessons from [----] [----] and [----] are clear. Watch these four key technical indicators to stay ahead of the next big market crash. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1825673487433797932)  2024-08-19T23:17Z 39K followers, 158.7K engagements


"I will laugh when CPI shows higher inflation at the end of Q3 higher in Q4 and even higher in Q1 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1827014513834471830)  2024-08-23T16:06Z 39K followers, 47.5K engagements


"As Ive been saying this market has an 85% correlation with the summer of [----]. Heres a headline from September [----]. Have a great weekend all 🪽💈 https://t.co/rL8iQfEkl4 Have a great weekend all 🪽💈 https://t.co/rL8iQfEkl4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1827554018131906755)  2024-08-25T03:50Z 39K followers, 40.2K engagements


"The consumer is strong 11% of credit cards are now 90+ days delinquent. Historically such spikes have often been a warning sign of a looming recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1827835350225482200)  2024-08-25T22:28Z 39K followers, 50.9K engagements


"@SirRX_0 True. $CPT and $VTR have been doing well for us so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1828952571999879358)  2024-08-29T00:27Z 38.7K followers, [--] engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1836138581716312426)  2024-09-17T20:22Z 39K followers, 533.5K engagements


"What's expected: A 50-bps cut and a median forecast of 4.375% for [----] implying 100-bps in cuts this year. The market anticipates two additional cuts in November and December. With this scenario priced into stocks the announcement would trigger a mild relief rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1836138592508522699)  2024-09-17T20:22Z 37.8K followers, 30.7K engagements


"If the Fed confirms a 50-bps cut yields will fall slightly and cyclical sectors like industrials energy and consumer discretionary will outperform. The 10-year Treasury yield will drop but not significantly. Stocks woukd see a moderate rally fueled by the Fed's confirmation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1836138595431911733)  2024-09-17T20:22Z 37.8K followers, 32.5K engagements


"Is the $VIX signaling another volatility spike is coming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1839379151452852256)  2024-09-26T18:58Z 38.9K followers, 95.4K engagements


"As I have been saying for months this market has an 85% correlation to [----]. This is particularly concerning given that the Fed started cutting rates with a [--] bps reduction on Sept [--] [----] the same date as last weeks [----] [--] bps cut. Stocks rallied then peaking on Oct [--] [----] when the Feds meeting minutes were released. This years minutes also come out on Oct [--] which will serve as a potential market catalyst as we head toward the end of the year. It's certainly a date to watch closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1840044803561583021)  2024-09-28T15:04Z 38.9K followers, 261.9K engagements


"The lack of confirmation for new record highs for the S&P [---] is still a major divergence that should not be ignored. Historically this has preceded corrective volatility in markets seen in [----] [----] [----] and 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1840059900442943981)  2024-09-28T16:04Z 39K followers, 121.6K engagements


"Over the past month. Sunflower Oil: +30% Natural Gas +25% Propane: +25% Iron Ore: +23% Sugar: +20% Beef: 19% Rubber: +16% Steel: +15% Oats: +14% Palm Oil: +13% Zinc: +13% Naphtha: +12% Nickel: +12% Tin: +10% Aluminum: +9% Are you sure inflation is coming down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1843786572346610012)  2024-10-08T22:52Z 39K followers, 250.6K engagements


"Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF $VWO One of the largest with $82B+ in assets. Its up 17.3% YTD (through Q3) has a 2.5% yield and an expense ratio of 0.08%. Solid low-cost exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1844837354093281736)  2024-10-11T20:27Z 38.9K followers, [---] engagements


"WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund $DEM For income seekers DEM offers a 6.3% yield. Its up 13% YTD and has $3B in assets. This ETF leans into high-yielding companies focusing on Taiwan China Brazil and India. Expense ratio: 0.63%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844837358212108373 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1844837358212108373"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1844837358212108373)  2024-10-11T20:27Z 38.9K followers, [---] engagements


"iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF $EMXC Want emerging market exposure without China EMXC excludes China entirely with $17.5B in assets up 11.2% YTD. It yields 2.1% and has a 0.25% expense ratio. Pair it with iShares MSCI China $MCHI for targeted exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1844837362083274930)  2024-10-11T20:27Z 38.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Inflation is accelerating"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1845529131112333422)  2024-10-13T18:16Z 39K followers, 75.5K engagements


"We still have bearish divergence on the $SPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1845867668022153270)  2024-10-14T16:42Z 38.9K followers, 28.5K engagements


"Household debt jumped by $228B (1.3%) in Q3 [----] reaching $17.29T. As debt levels rise consumer spending will weaken and economic growth will slow. Buy defensives. $XLU $FUTY $XLP $PINK $XLV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1847703461845950688)  2024-10-19T18:16Z 38.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Remember NFTs Me neither"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1847709774433178095)  2024-10-19T18:41Z 38.7K followers, 67.4K engagements


"Credit card debt is exploding way beyond [----] and [----] levels. If historys taught us anything its that this kind of spike usually screams incoming economic crash. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848340990433636544)  2024-10-21T12:30Z 39K followers, 202.7K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 👇🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1852112314507628701)  2024-10-31T22:16Z 39K followers, 84.7K engagements


"Were likely in the final phase of the Bull Market Cyclethe Blow-Off phasewith sub-phases of Renewed Optimism FOMO and now possibly Euphoria. Last weeks 5% gain in the S&P [---] despite late-cycle signals like a yield curve inversion and rising unemployment suggests were near the peak. The Presidential election may support business sentiment but it doesnt shift the economic trend overnight. This looks more like a late-cycle rally with growing risks than the start of a new bull market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856068915975037297)  2024-11-11T20:18Z 39K followers, 49.8K engagements


"BREAKING: Shitcoins are still shitcoins. Hi @HalieyWelchX My $35000 that I purchased of $Hawk is now $2000 after [--] minutes of buying. I am a huge fan of Hawk Tuah but you took my life savings. I purchased your coin $Hawk that you were so excited about with my life savings and childrens college education fund as https://t.co/MRftQ2sT6g Hi @HalieyWelchX My $35000 that I purchased of $Hawk is now $2000 after [--] minutes of buying. I am a huge fan of Hawk Tuah but you took my life savings. I purchased your coin $Hawk that you were so excited about with my life savings and childrens college"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1864505088942719423)  2024-12-05T03:00Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864727881596772596)  2024-12-05T17:45Z 39K followers, 107.1K engagements


"The S&P [---] $SPX price-to-book ratio has now surpassed its March [----] peak signaling valuations at levels not seen since the dot-com bubble. Meaning investors are paying more for stocks relative to the underlying value of companies assets than they were during the tech bubble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869097485060215147)  2024-12-17T19:09Z 39K followers, 50.3K engagements


"TOMORROW IS ACTUALLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1869138635380969538)  2024-12-17T21:52Z 39K followers, 1.3M engagements


"Investor sentiment is shifting: Expectations of a hard landing are at their lowest (6%) while no landing scenarios are gaining momentum (33%). Soft landing still dominates at 60%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1870902422031192122)  2024-12-22T18:41Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"History Doesn't Repeat Itself but It Often Rhymes 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1872751312103694622)  2024-12-27T21:08Z 39K followers, 35.1K engagements


"We might be adding small long positions in $TLT for clients with very long-term accounts. Still short $TLT in our macro strategy at minimum position size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1876997771162452274)  2025-01-08T14:21Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"FRIDAY'S JOBS REPORT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1877048144350806104)  2025-01-08T17:42Z 39K followers, 489.6K engagements


"In a bull market the ones who get paid are buyers not sellers. High-beta stocks are dominating low-volatility names confirming the return of risk-on sentiment. Momentum favors those who embrace volatilityits the price of playing the game. $SPLV $SPHB $SPY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1878125978926404072)  2025-01-11T17:05Z 38.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The $TLT chart is down 52% from its highs reflecting the brutal impact of rising rates. Bonds are only worth buying under two conditions: [--] A recession is imminent. [--] Inflation is decelerating rapidly. The steep decline suggests bonds are heavily oversold. When inflation cools bond prices will rise making this a compelling opportunity. In [--] years its hard to see a scenario where buying here feels like a mistake but you could be waiting a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1878162972507300228)  2025-01-11T19:32Z 38.9K followers, 55.7K engagements


"Global $GOLD production has flatlined around 3mn kilos annually since [----] adding $260bn to the global gold supply each year at current prices. For context that $260bn represents less than two months of the U.S. budget deficitwhile global population GDP and money supply continue to grow. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1879937916941512723 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1879937916941512723"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1879937916941512723)  2025-01-16T17:05Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Gents the $VIX is at [--] and the $SPX is down 2% from ATHs.Calm down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1883924373540856009)  2025-01-27T17:05Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Weve been watching $ALLY for weeksjust took a 4% position in our Alpha [--] concentrated strategy. Insiders are stepping in: CEO & CFO made their first open-market buys in the past couple of weeks. I am bullish on financials $XLF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1886819114603188505)  2025-02-04T16:48Z 38.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Citis earnings revisions index has been negative for six straight weeksdespite all the optimism around a Trump presidency. Markets may be ignoring a clear warning sign 👉 Deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1887495213595144591)  2025-02-06T13:35Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Justin Trudeau has been PM for nearly a decade. During his tenure despite massive currency devaluation and a sharp rise in government debt Canadas per-capita GDP (in USD terms) is down nearly 30% from highs. Trudeau has prioritized basically just climate policies for [--] years. Instead of building pipelines to BC ports (to export oil to Japan China and other Asian markets) or LNG terminals in eastern Canada (to supply Europe) Canada has become even more reliant on the U.S. under his leadership. Trump has a lot of leverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1887938982161387629)  2025-02-07T18:58Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"The next CPI print is likely to come in hot. This could mark the top before a move lower in March. The market isnt priced for it. Heres what Im watching and how to prepare 👉 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/inflation-is-topping https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/inflation-is-topping"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1888219989645140204)  2025-02-08T13:35Z 31.7K followers, 11.9K engagements


"🚨 Updated $SPX Market Multiples Chart 🚨 A notable bearish divergence in the weekly RSI remains a major technical warning sign for further upside in early [----]. For upside to continue we need: ✅ Fed to keep lying about future rate cuts ✅ Economic data to stay Goldilocks ✅ No major tariff hikes in Q1 ✅ 10Y yield stabilizing in the mid-to-low 4% ✅ NVDA earnings & guidance to beat expectations Without these downside risk grows. 📉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889421155863339060)  2025-02-11T21:08Z 39K followers, 37.7K engagements


"The top for inflation is in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1889674733299384782)  2025-02-12T13:55Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Bitcoin vs. $GOLD just turned lower after months of sideways actiona signal thats preceded broad market volatility in recent history. $BTC is rolling over in early Feb with rising risks of a bearish breakdown from its $91K-$107K range. A break below $91K opens the door to $75K aligning with H124 resistance that capped prices last year. Investor uncertainty is high across asset classes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1889713329804874184)  2025-02-12T16:29Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


"From a valuation standpoint the $SPX is now priced for perfection. 📉 Downside risks: A reversion to a 17.5x multiple would take the index to [----] (-25%). Earnings growth must deliver or this premium unwinds fast. Weekly RSI divergence suggests waning momentum. Zero margin for error 👀 🚨 Updated $SPX Market Multiples Chart 🚨 A notable bearish divergence in the weekly RSI remains a major technical warning sign for further upside in early [----]. For upside to continue we need: ✅ Fed to keep lying about future rate cuts ✅ Economic data to stay Goldilocks ✅ https://t.co/j27tB6Qs2T 🚨 Updated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1890430741479133516)  2025-02-14T15:59Z 39K followers, 35.3K engagements


"CNBC is now reporting on Nancy Pelosis $TEM options"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1890488481337475241)  2025-02-14T19:49Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Options market positioning is flashing caution. 👉 $SKEW remains near historically high levels. 👉 $VIX fell last week while SKEW rosesuggesting active downside hedging. 👉 A break below [----] in the $SPX could trigger heavy selling while a move above record highs may fuel a squeeze toward 6250"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1892283262392815840)  2025-02-19T18:41Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The post-pandemic S&P [---] bull market is running on fumes. $SPX surpassed its measured move target (6055) out of the [----] bear market in late [----] historically a momentum stalling point. Bearish RSI divergence remains intactsigns of trend exhaustion. Key Fib retracement levels align with fundamental downside targets (5203 & 4636) that I posted on Valentine's Day. Definitely something to keep an eye on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1892290310652199301)  2025-02-19T19:09Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Updated $SPX Fundamental Valuation Targets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1894097600078303450)  2025-02-24T18:50Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"This is interesting. $TLT This current admins sold put is not on SPY. Its on TLT https://t.co/le6tcgmR6W This current admins sold put is not on SPY. Its on TLT https://t.co/le6tcgmR6W"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1894242524031549936)  2025-02-25T04:26Z 31.7K followers, [----] engagements


"🚨 Yield Curve Is Inverted Again 🚨"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1894926914667884675)  2025-02-27T01:45Z 38.9K followers, 25.6K engagements


"This morning we were holding 17%-20% cash in our core MOMO strategies after exiting $MAGS a few weeks ago and trimming $IBIT late last weekfully exiting $BTC on the support break at [-----]. At todays close we redeployed that capital back into equities. Our long-term signal is still firmly green. If were catching a falling knife well find out rather quickly. Well aggressively raise cash if our long-term signal flips red or if our technicals breakdown meaning the $SPX closes below [----]. #RulesBasedInvesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1895276075657126244)  2025-02-28T00:53Z 31.8K followers, [----] engagements


""The time to buy is when theres blood in the streets" Seriously The $SPX is down 7% and the $VIX closed at [--]. By definition we are not even in correction territory yet. Calm down. This is part of the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897843276062835082)  2025-03-07T02:54Z 39K followers, 26.9K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897864075196903687)  2025-03-07T04:17Z 39K followers, 69.8K engagements


"Our long-term signal flipped red 🔻 on Friday (March 7)the first time since [----]. Were sitting on 32-35% cash & bonds in our MOMO strategies. $TLT $UBT $TMF The slow grind down + intact long-term technicals make this look like it could be a head-fakebut Ive learned to just follow the signal because in the end its more right than wrong (73%). If its a head-fake we can catch up fastweve done it many times. In a down market Protecting client capital comes first and catching up becomes much harder. Stay tuned. #RulesBasedInvesting https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1898896943960494439"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1898896943960494439)  2025-03-10T00:41Z 38.9K followers, 28.5K engagements


"Junk bond yields just broke above the [----] peak of 7.43% signaling escalating risk in corporate credit. Its too early to call a full-blown collapse but this is a clear risk-off signalmoney is rotating out of corporates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1900624983048458282)  2025-03-14T19:08Z 39K followers, 52.2K engagements


"SKEW just suffered a massive collapsesomething we havent seen in years. The breakdown in the inverse correlation between the $VIX and $SPX combined with a rising correlation between stocks and $SKEW signals major institutional liquidations. "Smart money" isnt just selling equities; theyre also dumping their out-of-the-money Black Swan hedges reinforcing the idea that SKEW is more about institutional positioning than actual tail-risk pricing. Derivatives markets out of Chicago are flashing signs of a short-term relief rally. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1902124850606489722"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1902124850606489722)  2025-03-18T22:27Z 39K followers, 51K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD TO LEARN HOW MARKETS WILL REACT 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1902133073199952347)  2025-03-18T23:00Z 38.9K followers, 285.2K engagements


"GOLDMAN: IG spreads will rise to [---] bp and HY to [---] bp in [----]. That kind of widening has never been bullish for stocks. It means tighter financial conditions rising default risk and pressure on earnings. Still early but keep an eye on credit spreads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1903901569029980356)  2025-03-23T20:08Z 39K followers, 21.5K engagements


"That pesky monthly MACD crossover is taunting us againjust like [----] [----] and [----]. Each time it signaled more downside. But sure Its different this time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906096552545853576)  2025-03-29T21:30Z 39K followers, 101.5K engagements


"Every time the yield curve reverts after an inversion recession follows. No exceptions. Why is everyone so sure this time is different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1906771069135966443)  2025-03-31T18:10Z 38.9K followers, 116.8K engagements


"$NMAX is up over 2000% in [--] hours and now has a market cap of $30 billion. This market was starving for a new narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1907164704176284060)  2025-04-01T20:14Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Our long-term RiskSIGNAL turned red back on March 7th telling us to reduce equity exposure. Current core positioning: 40% short-term Treasuries 20% long-term Treasuries $TLT $UBT $TMF 10% anti-beta 30% broad-based equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1907608505663561982)  2025-04-03T01:38Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"This isnt about Trump. This isnt about Biden. Its not even about Elon Musk. This isnt about Republicans or Democrats at all. This didnt start in 2020its been building for decades. From the Iraq War to Medicare Part D from TARP to quantitative easing both parties have done a horrid job of managing the finances of this country for decades. The Iraq War cost trillions with no clear outcome. Medicare Part D created a massive unfunded entitlement. TARP rescued Wall Street while Main Street paid the price. Quantitative easing injected trillions into financial markets inflating asset prices and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1908356237596520758)  2025-04-05T03:09Z 39K followers, 44K engagements


"That was a pretty strong move into the close. Smalls were even hanging on. This rally could have some legs for the next week or so before crashing to new lows. Just an observation. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910076074928583038)  2025-04-09T21:03Z 38.9K followers, 22.5K engagements


"Yesterday was not the bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910347842935234686)  2025-04-10T15:03Z 38.9K followers, 13.7K engagements


"Stocks are sliding and the worst may still be ahead. Every major crash [----] [----] [----] followed the same patterns. 3/4 technical signals are flashing red right now. Ignore them at your own risk:👇 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910400535393448009)  2025-04-10T18:32Z 38.9K followers, 132.7K engagements


"Systematic deleveraging is dominating markets. Negative gamma since 2/21 = amplified volatility CTAs aggressively net short Vol Control funds dumped equities Until volatility falls and trend signals reverse markets remain vulnerable to forced selling and violent squeezes in both directions. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1910432497462395283 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1910432497462395283"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1910432497462395283)  2025-04-10T20:39Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"This rally is likely going to be short lived"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1915418601856933893)  2025-04-24T14:52Z 38.9K followers, 90.2K engagements


"This doesnt look as good as everyone thinks it is. Whipsaw incoming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921923589445423286)  2025-05-12T13:41Z 39K followers, 39.3K engagements


"Gold is up 23% YTDbut miner stocks are up 3040%. Why High beta + margin leverage. Names like $GFI $GOLD $B $NEM move 23x the gold price. ETFs lag. The juice is in the single names. $GLD $GDX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1924171492201230489)  2025-05-18T18:33Z 38.9K followers, [----] engagements


"When U.S. manufacturing expands infrastructure stocks rip. $AIRR full of high-quality small/mid-cap industrialshas crushed Nasdaq in recent capacity booms. This is Made in America alphaand its working"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1924507889051287559)  2025-05-19T16:50Z 39K followers, [----] engagements


"Indias trade with the U.S. has doubled in a decade. Exports: $78B. Imports: $41B. While the world fixates on China India $INDA is quietly becoming Americas go-to partner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1924533111955525830)  2025-05-19T18:30Z 38K followers, [----] engagements


"Most major market drawdowns since [----] have shared one thing in common: A weekly outside reversal in the % of $SPX stocks above their 200-day MA right around the 50% level has resulted in an intracycle drawdown ranging from 5%-20%. It just happened again. Last time this aligned with a yield curve rebound was [----]. We know what followed. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928213318860206244)  2025-05-29T22:14Z 39K followers, 53.2K engagements


"The money printer is back on. US M2 just hit a new all-time high at $21.86T. Liquidity is flowing back into the system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1929591907170103641)  2025-06-02T17:32Z 39K followers, 113.8K engagements


"The yield curve is screaming late-cycle. 🔹 10s2s bull-steepened to +52 bps 🔹 10Y3M bull-flattened to just +5 bps 🔹 Both coming off multi-year inversions This is not a healthy re-steepening. Its what happens when the Fed pauses recession risks rise and long-term growth expectations collapse. The curve isnt un-inverting because everything is fine its confirming the slowdown is already in motion. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1929937669250752966)  2025-06-03T16:26Z 39K followers, 33.4K engagements


"Complacency is back but the derivatives market tells a different story. $VIX dropped $SKEW went flat Put/Call ratio faded This isnt just a lack of fear its a surge in call supply. Traders are selling naked calls Institutions are writing covered calls Theyre either ready to sell or bracing for downside This is quiet distribution not bullish conviction. When everyone stops hedging risk isnt gone its just unpriced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1929954484530118864)  2025-06-03T17:33Z 38.4K followers, 35.7K engagements


"**I really dont understand why everyone isnt outraged about housing. If this keeps up when my kid turns [--] (2047) theyll need to make $843K/year just to buy a median-priced home. This is what happens when you rack up government debt and flood the system with handouts. Government handouts directly widen the wealth gap. And everyone is just walking around like theyre in a god damn Enya video. Younger generations have a right to be mad about this https://t.co/MUCuQVKj1W Younger generations have a right to be mad about this https://t.co/MUCuQVKj1W"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1933032060978937991)  2025-06-12T05:22Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Crude oil volatility just exploded to 71.5its highest level in over a year. Historically $OVX above [--] signals major stress in energy markets. Were now well beyond that. This isnt noise. This is dislocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1935052534978060293)  2025-06-17T19:10Z 38.8K followers, 17.3K engagements


"Every OpEx this year has been a turning point for markets. Price is compressing into June OpEx again. RSI is weakening. Dealer positioning is tight. If this breaks it wont be random"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936114863123677273)  2025-06-20T17:32Z 39K followers, 64.7K engagements


"Every recession in the last [--] years started with a violent drop in the 2-year yield. Were not there yet but were dancing on the edge. The 10Y-2Y spread is bull-steepening. If the 2Y breaks lower it signals the Fed has lost control. Thats your cue. Watch it closely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1937587503424266281)  2025-06-24T19:03Z 39K followers, 146.6K engagements


"The Tom Lee indicator says stocks only go up in July"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939406978398429222)  2025-06-29T19:33Z 39K followers, 63.6K engagements


"Breadth finally broke out. The % of $SPX stocks above their 200-day MAs surged to 59% the highest since early [----] after months of stalling near the 50% mark even as the index pushed to new highs. RSI confirms the move in $SPXA200R but the NYSE A/D line and $SPXA50R aren't fully onboard yet. Strong step forward but not a unanimous vote of confidence. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1942575957069468061 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1942575957069468061"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1942575957069468061)  2025-07-08T13:26Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"I expect CPI to come in hot on July 15th north of 2.5%. This will likely be a buying opportunity on any pullback"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944175513653981602)  2025-07-12T23:22Z 39K followers, 48.6K engagements


"SMID cap stocks are cleaning up. Only 9% of S&P [---] companies are unprofitable vs. 34% for the Russell [----]. Thats the widest quality gap in 30+ years. If you want small-cap exposure without junk midcaps are the answer. We are long: $ARKK $RUNN $TNA $MDY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1944387886108790937)  2025-07-13T13:26Z 38.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Imagine saying "Oh no. the market is going up again." Since when are all-time highs a bad thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1948454769695359156)  2025-07-24T18:46Z 38.7K followers, [----] engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950409106600145163)  2025-07-30T04:12Z 38.9K followers, 97K engagements


"If the Fed starts cutting and growth holds steady the yield curve steepens even more. Thats a tailwind. And not all sectors benefit equally. Lets talk about the winners"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1953638282237280605)  2025-08-08T02:03Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Banks borrow short lend long. When short-term rates drop net interest margins widen. $KBWB and $KRE are positioned to benefit from this spread expansion if credit quality holds and the consumer stays strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1953638289077911844)  2025-08-08T02:03Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Banks are one of the obvious beneficiaries of a steepening curve. Short-term rates fall borrowing costs drop margins expand. If the Fed cuts and credit quality holds $KBWB and $KRE could see a powerful tailwind. The setup is straightforward. The risk is credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1953955137342308371)  2025-08-08T23:03Z 38.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Small caps are highly sensitive to short-term rates. Lower 2-Year yields = cheaper financing = faster earnings leverage. $RUT has been stuck in neutral but a continued steepening could be the breakout fuel. High beta + high sensitivity = fast moves. $IWM $TNA $ARKK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1953962182040822262)  2025-08-08T23:31Z 37.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Falling short-term yields = a tailwind for bond proxies. $XLU just broke to new highs on AI-driven demand + macro support. $XLRE could be next if inflation expectations keep sliding. This is where yield drives flows again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1954083732278718887)  2025-08-09T07:34Z 38.8K followers, [----] engagements


"Everyone is way too bearish right now. We will be buying the dips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957804164160876632)  2025-08-19T13:57Z 39K followers, 49.2K engagements


"So Im supposed to believe the Fed is about to cut rates when credit spreads are sitting at multi-month tights Cutting here = loosening financial conditions just as inflation pressures re-accelerate. Thats a policy mistake in the making and likely the only cut of [----]. The Fed should be hiking not cutting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1958614743205151175)  2025-08-21T19:38Z 39K followers, 35.7K engagements


"Now watch the September 11th CPI accelerate to 2.8-3%. Fed made a policy mistake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1958963351339380845)  2025-08-22T18:43Z 39K followers, 87.8K engagements


"75% odds of a Sept rate cut Weve seen this movie before. Im old enough to remember when the market was betting on [--] cuts in Feb [----]. Following a hot CPI report on Sept [--] I am highly skeptical that Powell will be cutting rates at all. The odds of a September rate cut have fallen to 75% 🚨 https://t.co/YixGQ3rJeU The odds of a September rate cut have fallen to 75% 🚨 https://t.co/YixGQ3rJeU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959634485005242442)  2025-08-24T15:10Z 39K followers, 51.2K engagements


"@belikejustin Ride the wave. Im looking to load up on more smalls and $ARKK $TARK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1961571624651473233)  2025-08-29T23:28Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Mid-caps are next on deck. We are looking to reload on $MDY $ARKK $TARK $RUNN $FMED When leadership broadens we think capital will continue to rotate here. These setups could quietly drive the next advance into 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962210782520746308)  2025-08-31T17:48Z 38.7K followers, [---] engagements


"Rates are green Dollar is green Oil is green ➡ thats rising inflation expectations exactly what Ive been saying for weeks. $XLE just broke a 9-month downtrend. Relative strength vs $SPX is still a little weak but RSI is bullish. If the breakout sticks energy leadership could be next"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1962977828602798091)  2025-09-02T20:35Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"SKEW spiked early last week hinting at institutional hedging but the sharp drop on Thursday told a different story. If institutions were behind the $SPX push to new highs $SKEW would have jumped as black swan hedges were added with the new long-equity exposure. That didn't happen This suggests retail traders may be the last bulls standing. Just something to keep an eye on not a reason to panic sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963293923956142543)  2025-09-03T17:32Z 38.4K followers, [----] engagements


"US GDP just hit 3.3% the strongest growth in nearly [--] years. Markets are begging for cuts 🔔 but with growth this hot and inflation re-accelerating Powell would be justified in raising rates here instead of cutting. The cut story doesnt match the data but that doesn't mean it won't happen anyways"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963505816499073252)  2025-09-04T07:34Z 38.3K followers, [----] engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1963616114543604216)  2025-09-04T14:52Z 39K followers, 555.4K engagements


"Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps. In modern history a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions making this one of the most important dynamics in markets today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965150661940548062)  2025-09-08T20:30Z 39K followers, 24.1K engagements


"Gold while Brent crude = classic risk-off signal. Investors are favoring a store of value while fading growth-sensitive energy. If oil weakness persists (unlikely) HY energy credit will be first to feel the stress"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965187392513720684)  2025-09-08T22:56Z 38.9K followers, [---] engagements


"Credit markets look compressed. HY IG and EM hard-currency debt are all packed in the high single digits. That tight clustering shows a broad reach for yield instead of true risk diversification. $GHYG $IGLB $EMB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1965187396481470963)  2025-09-08T22:56Z 38.9K followers, [---] engagements


"The $VIX isnt "broken." Volatility has been suppressed by options dealer gamma. In positive gamma (like today) dealers are forced to buy into weakness and sell into strength keeping volatility pinned. In negative gamma dealers are forced to sell into weakness and buy into strength which amplifies volatility like we saw in April with the 5-year closing high in the VIX. Something to keep your eye on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965834029477122439)  2025-09-10T17:45Z 39K followers, 33.7K engagements


"Friendly reminder: the 129-year-old Dow Theory flipped bearish back on March [--] [----]. The "things that make shit index" $DJI is pushing higher but the "things that move shit index" $DJT is not confirming. Without confirmation the "oldest market signal" is still flashing a warning sign"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965892290137964737)  2025-09-10T21:37Z 39K followers, 25K engagements


"Every modern recession has been preceded by the same signal: Job openings (blue) roll over Unemployment (red) turns higher That combo is flashing again today. History says its not a pattern you should ignore. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1966191186072449118)  2025-09-11T17:24Z 39K followers, 98.2K engagements


"TOMORROW IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FOMC MEETING OF YOUR LIFE SO READ THIS THREAD 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1967949158708289740)  2025-09-16T13:50Z 39K followers, 82K engagements


"While everything looks like we have the "all-clear" for equity investors. The 10Y3M curve is still turning higher as short rates roll over. Every major recession in modern history has followed this late-cycle bull steepening pattern. Theres never been a cycle where this pattern ended differently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970247334870106243)  2025-09-22T22:02Z 39K followers, 81.6K engagements


"27 years ago today $EBAY exploded 163% on its IPO debut. [----] called it "innovation." History calls it dot-com mania. Sound familiar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1970831918884155683)  2025-09-24T12:45Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Consumers are struggling. The retail sales control group (the cleanest look at real spending) has been trending lower since [----]. Weak consumption is a slow-moving headwind for growth. Consistent with elevated and likely underpriced risks to growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1971712142274437431)  2025-09-26T23:03Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


"If AI CapEx drops stocks are likely toast. This has basically been a privately funded stimulus package. Cracks are forming in the AI capex boom warns Morgan Stanley https://t.co/KAadEYQtvk Cracks are forming in the AI capex boom warns Morgan Stanley https://t.co/KAadEYQtvk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973893046795403414)  2025-10-02T23:29Z 39K followers, 88.9K engagements


""Why buy stocks when were in a bubble" Because I only want to buy when were in a bubble. Bubbles mean excess liquidity euphoric narratives and aggressive capital chasing growth. Thats when momentum is real and returns can compound fast. The trick isnt avoiding bubbles its recognizing one early riding it while fundamentals and flows still support it and having the discipline to step off before the crowd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975268196706820196)  2025-10-06T18:33Z 39K followers, 33.2K engagements


"We entered negative gamma on the $SPX today so we added a 6-7% directional hedge via $SQQQ incase the floor drops out on Monday. Hopefully it will be short lived"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1976800291946430963)  2025-10-11T00:01Z 37.3K followers, 19.9K engagements


"$SQQQ hedge is still on. The goal of this trade isnt to make money its to suppress the downside. We are in negative gamma. VolControl sell off has started CTAs are the next signal to watch. We are still very net long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978079474089390513)  2025-10-14T12:44Z 37.7K followers, 14K engagements


"Watching this close right now 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978183952729809380)  2025-10-14T19:39Z 37.3K followers, [----] engagements


"The S&P [---] is down just less than 2% from highs yet the Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. Fear without damage is opportunity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1978921648670511104)  2025-10-16T20:31Z 37.8K followers, 13.5K engagements


"If youre looking to buy gold right now it may be wise to consider copper instead. $GOLD has already made its move gaining more than 60% this year and is now trading well above trend with both momentum and sentiment stretched. While gold could stay elevated for a lot longer a pullback looks increasingly likely and new buyers face poor risk-reward at current levels. Copper in contrast has quietly reset. It recently retested its $4.90 pivot is holding firm above long-term support and its RSI has returned to neutral suggesting its building a healthier base for the next leg higher. From a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979509270145040529)  2025-10-18T11:26Z 37.8K followers, [----] engagements


"While most investors stay focused on tech utilities $XLU have quietly taken the lead. That rotation matters because utilities are the most bond-like sector in the equity market. When investors grow cautious they rotate toward predictable cash flows and essential services like electricity and water areas that remain stable regardless of the business cycle. This behavior reflects a classic risk-off move. Since stock prices often lead the economy utilities outperforming the broader market suggests traders are positioning for slower growth and tightening financial conditions ahead. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979524372629991809)  2025-10-18T12:26Z 38.5K followers, [----] engagements


"The current inside-week pattern is occurring just as dealer positioning has flipped back toward negative gamma as shown in the SPX Net Gamma History chart. This shift means dealers are once again forced to sell into weakness and buy into strength amplifying intraday volatility and reducing market stability. When gamma turns negative price action becomes more reactive to options flows rather than fundamental drivers which helps explain the recent choppy indecisive tape"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979539473491746943)  2025-10-18T13:26Z 37.3K followers, [----] engagements


"With the market compressed inside last weeks range this setup effectively loads the spring. A break above [----] would trigger a wave of dealer buying and suppress volatility while a move below [----] would likely unleash another round of volatility expansion as hedging flows turn pro-cyclical to the downside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979569669070557258)  2025-10-18T15:26Z 37.3K followers, 12.8K engagements


"FINRA margin debt just reached $1.06T the highest on record. Thats $124.14B higher than pre-2022 crash levels and $391.06B above pre-COVID. Leverage is confidence until it isnt. When liquidity tightens margin calls turn euphoria into forced selling fast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979583665244938570)  2025-10-18T16:21Z 38.3K followers, [----] engagements


"Both $SPY and $QQQ printed inside weeks while dealer gamma flipped negative again. Volatility is compressing liquidity is thin and positioning is tight. The next breakout from this range decides how equities trade into November. Read the full report 👇 https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compression-before-the-break https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compression-before-the-break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979856551956320651)  2025-10-19T10:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Black Monday [--] Years Ago Today On October [--] [----] Wall Street awoke to a perfect storm. After a roaring 5-year bull market the Dow teetered on overvaluation up 44% that year alone. Whispers of inflation rising rates and a weakening dollar fueled unease. Then computerized "portfolio insurance" algorithms kicked in: as stocks fell 5% to over sold levels then crashed as the auto-selling kicked in and billions were sold triggering a digital avalanche. By [--] PM the Dow cratered [---] points down -22.6% vaporizing $500B in value. Global markets followed: Hong Kong -45% London -26%. Traders screamed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979967370597892295)  2025-10-19T17:46Z 37.8K followers, 15.8K engagements


"When the Treasury starts buying back its own debt its not just a bond market story it ripples into equities. Buybacks inject liquidity into the system easing pressure on yields and supporting risk assets. Its quiet stimulus. Stocks love liquidity. This is bullish for now. U.S. Treasury bought back $192 million of its own debt this week 🚨🚨 https://t.co/EQKHCL9fse U.S. Treasury bought back $192 million of its own debt this week 🚨🚨 https://t.co/EQKHCL9fse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979983782112264470)  2025-10-19T18:51Z 37.9K followers, 34.9K engagements


"When the next major crash hits there will be signs and this is one of them. The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record [---]. When leverage becomes a product not a tool it tells you where we are in the cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1979993968835285223)  2025-10-19T19:32Z 39K followers, 176.6K engagements


"The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from [----] to [--]. Readings below [--] have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8% and you have a classic stagflation warning signal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1980234045616165135)  2025-10-20T11:26Z 38.9K followers, 11.2K engagements


"Gold is behaving like a meme stock not a safe-haven. https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compression-before-the-break https://www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compression-before-the-break"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1980626646748066241)  2025-10-21T13:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Yesterdays rally pushed the $SPX back into positive gamma setting the table for lower volatility. In this regime dealers hedge by selling into strength and buying into weakness which suppresses volatility and keeps the $VIX pinned. Its a sign the market is slowly normalizing after weeks of higher volatility. I would still like to see short-term (30D) realized volatility fall below 9% but structure is improving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1980627764005793974)  2025-10-21T13:30Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


"Friendly reminder that the 120-year-old Dow Theory turned bearish on March [--] [----]. The S&P [---] is up over 21% since"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1980943725166510392)  2025-10-22T10:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The $VIX just broke out to multi-month highs last week reclaiming the key [-----] level that capped every prior rally since April. RSI confirmed the move with higher highs and the VIX/VVIX ratio shows volatility demand rising faster than option supply a sign of genuine stress. This volatility regime remains active until the VIX closes back below [----]. As long as that support holds expect elevated implied volatility and elevated price movements across equities. For now this should be somewhat suppressed while dealers are in positive gamma but if that changes vol will increase FAST. In short it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981050934223384608)  2025-10-22T17:32Z 39K followers, 70.6K engagements


"Most investors dont track the $SKEW but its one of the cleanest windows into institutional positioning. The SKEW measures demand for out-of-the-money put options essentially "crash insurance." When institutions accumulate theyre buying hedges (puts) quietly while volatility is low. Its the smart money preparing for turbulence not chasing equities. When they distribute theyre reducing hedges as risk appetite returns or liquidity conditions improve often near equity highs. Over the last few weeks the SKEW has moved back into a distribution zone suggesting hedging activity is picking up again."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981124199050858857)  2025-10-22T22:23Z 39K followers, 49.2K engagements


"Today in 1929: The Prelude to the Wall Street Crash It began quietly on October [--] [----]. Traders at the New York Stock Exchange watched as sell orders poured in wiping out 4.6% of the markets value in a single day. Nearly four billion dollars disappeared an unimaginable figure at the time. Margin calls started ringing as investors who had borrowed to buy stocks were forced to sell. Each sale drove prices lower triggering more margin calls and spreading fear through the exchange. Rumors circulated about banks tightening credit and Congress considering tariffs like Smoot Hawley that could choke"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1981428267421720789)  2025-10-23T18:31Z 39K followers, 30.7K engagements


"Today is the anniversary of Black Thursday. On October [--] [----] the New York Stock Exchange descended into chaos. Panic selling drove a record [----] million shares traded and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 11% wiping out billions. Known as Black Thursday this crash fueled by speculative bubbles overleveraged margin trading and weak banking oversight marked the start of the [----] Stock Market Crash. It triggered the Great Depression shaking global currency markets. The devastation led to the Securities Act of [----] which restored trust through transparency. Black Thursday was a turning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1981713799708041257)  2025-10-24T13:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"The $SPX broke above [----] earlier this week and closed near [----] confirming a strong breakout. Price is now consolidating above former resistance. The [--------] range is key support. Holding it keeps the path open toward [----] which would put the index within striking distance of the psychological [----] level. A drop below [----] however would risk a false breakout and retest of [----]. RSI near [--] shows steady momentum with mild fatigue but as long as it stays above [--] the short-term uptrend holds. The recent volatility crush has eased hedging pressure keeping conditions calm and the bias pointed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982173542876950925)  2025-10-25T19:52Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


"BofAs tracking model shows Q3 GDP still running near 2.8% driven by strong consumption. The economy continues to show surprising resilience even with elevated rates but dont mistake momentum for immunity. The Feds next move hinges on whether spending can hold into Q4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982393271142719948)  2025-10-26T10:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"Retail control sales softened sharply in September. BofAs internal data shows a far weaker trend than Census data suggesting consumer momentum is fading beneath the surface. The strength in Q3 GDP may be the high-water mark before the slowdown shows up in Q4 data. Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982408372688191634)  2025-10-26T11:26Z 37.7K followers, [----] engagements


"BofA now expects the Fed to end QT this month instead of year end. Repo rates have stayed elevated while the ON RRP facility is nearly drained showing reserves are no longer abundant. This is not easing it is the system hitting its limit. Liquidity is getting tight and money market rates like SOFR and FF are signaling stress. When reserves get this scarce it usually spills into equities credit and volatility. Still early but the Fed may be forced to stop tightening before something breaks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982423471717036491)  2025-10-26T12:26Z 37.9K followers, 28.5K engagements


"On this day in [----] Pan Ams Boeing [---] took off from NY to Paris launching the first transatlantic jet flight. Travel time slashed from days to hours tourism and airline stocks soared global trade transformed. It set the stage for Concordes epic supersonic sprints hitting Mach [--] sadly retired"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982514427569025533)  2025-10-26T18:27Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements


"On this day in 1997: The Asian Contagion Triggers a Mini-Crash and First-Ever Circuit Breaker Halt Amid the spreading Asian financial crisis U.S. stocks cratered on October [--] with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging [---] points (7.2%) its largest single-day point drop at the time prompting the NYSE to invoke circuit breakers for the inaugural time halting trading for the day. This historical crash sparked by currency devaluations in Thailand and beyond exposed vulnerabilities in emerging markets and led to IMF bailouts ultimately working out for the best by accelerating reforms that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1982787706787602663)  2025-10-27T12:33Z 37.9K followers, [----] engagements

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