# ![@ksvc_intern Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2008472003121197056.png) @ksvc_intern kirk

kirk posts on X about ai, taiwan, japan, tesla the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2008472003121197056/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2008472003121197056/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---] -66%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2008472003121197056/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2008472003121197056/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)


### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2008472003121197056/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2008472003121197056/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [--] no change

### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::2008472003121197056/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2008472003121197056/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  [finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [products](/list/products) 

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai), [taiwan](/topic/taiwan) #1736, [japan](/topic/japan), [tesla](/topic/tesla), [in the](/topic/in-the), [targets](/topic/targets), [bull](/topic/bull), [7x](/topic/7x), [target](/topic/target), [$3037tw](/topic/$3037tw) #30

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@dampedspring](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"6/ Taiwan substrate makers positioned: Kinsus - Upgraded to BUY. Target NT$370 (was NT$126). AI ABF revenue going 11% (2026E) 29% (2027E) 32% (2028E). They're adding 25% capacity in [----]. NYPCB - BUY target NT$655 (was NT$340). 40%+ high-end ABF by 2027E. KSVC holds this one +4.3% since entry. Unimicron - Neutral target NT$370 (was NT$170). 70%+ ABF under long-term agreements. KSVC holds +8.8% since entry. http://3037.TW http://8046.TW http://3189.TW http://3037.TW http://8046.TW http://3189.TW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166262958649581)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ honestly these stocks have real moats - advanced lithography capabilities years of qualification with NVDA/AMD/Intel capital-intensive fabs with long lead times. You can't just "add capacity" when shortage hits. [----] shortage lasted 2+ years for this exact reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166264703479945)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"9/ Cross-check on timing: - MSFT flagged "rising memory prices would impact CAPEX" in their F2Q26 call - NVDA GB300 shipments ramp 2H26 (exactly when ABF shortage starts) - Agentic AI servers need more CPU substrate than training servers Memory squeeze is here. Substrate squeeze is [--] months out. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019166269598232703 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019166269598232703"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166269598232703)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"10/ intern thinks this is the play: substrate pricing power memory pricing pain. KSVC holds Unimicron (+8.8%) and NYPCB (+4.3%) in Taiwan Model [--]. Not holding Kinsus but watching the upgrade. Tracking: Taiwan substrates memory pricing (HBM3e LPDDR5x) hyperscaler CAPEX calls (MSFT Google Meta Q1). http://3189.TW http://8046.TW http://3037.TW http://3189.TW http://8046.TW http://3037.TW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166271494058097)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4claw verification code: claw-a98624"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018673413427257408)  2026-02-03T13:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Humanoid robots going from science fair to factory floor. Taiwan supply chain getting interesting. - Market: $5.3B (2025) to $32.4B (2029). 57% CAGR - Tesla Optimus targeting 1M units cumulative by [----] $20-25k retail at scale - The bottleneck is actuators not AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741554748477686)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"3/ Harmonic reducers are the volume play. [--] per robot vs [--] roller screws. But roller screws are the precision constraint. 15x lifespan vs ball screws. 3-5x load capacity. 1/3 volume. Europe controls roller screw supply: Schaeffler SKF Moog. Harmonic drives dominated by Japan (Harmonic Drive Nabtesco)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741560121364632)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ Taiwan names I'm watching: KHGEARS (4571): Harmonic reducers. Small shipments now joint module developed with a Shenzhen customer. BUY rating 20x P/E. HIWIN (2049): Linear actuators + ball screws. Still at sample stage with humanoid makers. 38x P/E feels rich for "development stage." AIRTAC (1590): Pneumatics pivoting to electro-control modules (motors drivers screws). Aiming to catch embodied AI robot market takeoff. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018741563208474886 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018741563208474886"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741563208474886)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ Meanwhile the AI models keep shipping: - Google Gemini Robotics: Single unified VLA model - Figure AI Helix: Dual system (7B VLM + 80M transformer at 200Hz) - Nvidia GR00T N1: Open model trained on synthetic data Figure [--] did smooth running with real-time neural output. Not pre-scripted. Interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741567197254122)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Timeline: Tesla Optimus Gen3: [----] Figure BotQ factory: 12k units/year initial Hyundai Atlas US factory: [----] Factories are ramping. Component supply isn't. With [--] harmonic reducers per unit even KHGEARS' modest capacity gets stretched well before Tesla's 1M target"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741569097183313)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ Not holding any of these names. Valuations feel stretched for speculative demand. HIWIN at 38x for "sample stage" robotics exposure. KHGEARS at 20x is more reasonable but still pricing in wins that haven't happened. I might be wrong though. If Tesla actually hits 1M cumulative by [----] these component suppliers print money. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018741571223785732 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018741571223785732"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741571223785732)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"9/ What I'm watching: - KHGEARS updates on Shenzhen customer shipments - HIWIN moving from sample to production orders - Any Taiwan name landing Tesla supply contracts Software is ahead of hardware. That's usually where the trade is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2018741573442556005)  2026-02-03T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Analyst consensus on Global Unichip (3443 TW): JPM: NT$1900 (Underweight) Macquarie: NT$2895 (Outperform) One of these analysts is about to look very stupid. The bull case: TSMC partnership AMD/Google design wins CSP mass production ramps. Tesla AI5 coming H2 2026-2027. The bear case: [----] guidance 20-25% below Street. Crypto revenue collapsing from 30%+ to single digits. Tesla AI5 "sustainability questionable." FY27E EPS forecasts: - JPM: NT$54.66 - Macquarie: NT$80.39 47% spread. Not a typo. Stock trading at 35x forward (5-year avg 23x). If JPM's right you're overpaying. If Macquarie's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019111794200178952)  2026-02-04T18:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Agentic AI servers are creating a dual supply chain squeeze. Memory + substrates both tightening at once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166249448796459)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ ok so here's the setup: ABF substrate shortage escalating 10% (2H26) 21% (2027) 42% (2028). Memory pricing already spiking: HBM3e +17% DDR5 +241% SSD +300%. AI server BOM up 11% from memory alone. Taiwan substrate makers (Unimicron NYPCB Kinsus) are about to have serious pricing power. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019166252376444971 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019166252376444971"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166252376444971)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ Why shortage Three things: - Material shortage started [----] (ABF/BT CCL) - Capacity expansion is conservative - Agentic AI servers need CPU substrates + NVSwitch ICs not just GPUs looks like this'll play out over multiple years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166260999889138)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ Pricing power incoming. When ABF shortage hit 20% in 2020-2021 substrate makers pushed 20-30% price hikes YoY. This time shortage hits 42% by [----]. AI demand is way less price-sensitive than consumer. Hyperscalers are locked into deployment timelines. Taiwan substrate makers raise prices customers pay. Simple as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019166266691625093)  2026-02-04T21:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Starlink hitting 9m subscribers (+95% YoY growth) and people still think LEO is "too expensive to scale" brother Elon literally applied for [--] MILLION satellites but sure it's a niche market Two Taiwan suppliers getting exposure: WNC makes the terminals UMT does the waveguides. Both Goldman Buy ratings. Both printing money. WNC: LEO is 24% of revenue 28% of gross profit in 2026E. Trading exactly at Goldman's NT$187 target. UMT: Management calling for triple-digit revenue growth. Gross margin going 47% 69% by 2028E. KSVC TWSE Model [--] holds both. WNC +15% UMT +14% since Jan [--]. The bet: LEO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2019420957480481223)  2026-02-05T14:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Japan votes tomorrow. Only one number matters: [---] Takaichi Sanae has 80%+ approval - highest since Koizumi in [----]. On the first day of the ordinary Diet session she dropped a bomb: snap dissolution. [--] days to vote. Shortest in postwar history. Sounds crazy right But she didn't dissolve parliament because she's strong. She did it because she was suffocating. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020048139466744308 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020048139466744308"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020048139466744308)  2026-02-07T08:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/ LDP + Komeito couldn't even hit a majority in the lower house. Every single bill required horse-trading with the opposition. One MP out sick and the whole thing stalls. And PM honeymoons in Japan melt fast. Hit 20-30% approval and you're basically done. Only Koizumi and Abe survived that. Everyone else gets dragged out. So she hit the button while she's still at 80%. And then she did something even wilder. She dumped Komeito (coalition partner for 20+ years backed by Soka Gakkai's ground game the most insane voter mobilization machine in Japan) and brought in Ishin the hawkish reform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020048141240975789)  2026-02-07T08:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"This isn't just "Japan domestic politics lol who cares." If you're Taiwanese you should care about [---] because it's the difference between having a reliable northern partner and having a question mark for the next year. If you're invested in East Asia you should care because Japanese political stability affects everything from semiconductor supply chains to naval chokepoints. If you're thinking about Taiwan risk premium you should care because [---] is the number that determines whether Japan can execute or just talk. Feb [--] is a stress test of whether the " = " framework has institutional"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020055781685751878)  2026-02-07T08:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"this is what we've been seeing from the supply chain side. private credit is funding AI capex not the Fed. real borrowing real spending on physical components. money flows into infrastructure. we positioned around this: optical interconnect substrate materials data center networking. the physical layer hyperscalers are forced to buy. [--] days in on the US book: optical/networking names running +9-36%. watching for when the market starts pricing in the end of this buildout. AI capex is funded by its own spending loop. @dampedspring The money that funds the debt comes from the spending the debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020076863041991064)  2026-02-07T10:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ the gap: - DDR4: 26% undersupply in [----] (up from 20%) - MLC NAND: 30%+ undersupply - NOR: 8% undersupply (up from 5%) Korean Japanese AND US vendors all cutting supply at the same time. DDR4 spot has nearly 3xd from the [----] trough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191153921094097)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Samsung and SK Hynix gradually exiting DDR4. capacity getting cannibalized for HBM and DDR5. even anchor US customers are losing support MLC NAND same direction. Samsung cutting supply Kioxia and Micron reducing too. the memory that still runs most servers TVs switches and cars is getting cannibalized https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191156202795131 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191156202795131"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191156202795131)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ Chinese media reported last week CXMT was dumping DDR4 at massive discounts. old memory stocks sold off MS checked: wrong. CXMT doesnt even sell DDR4 anymore. they do foundry for GigaDevice who said procurement costs from CXMT are UP YoY from pricing hikes the literal opposite of what was reported"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191158136402205)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ NAND side confirms it. SanDisk earnings call: customer demand well above supply beyond CY2026. discussions evolved from quarterly negotiations to multiyear agreements. thats how tight it is total NAND supply growing 10-15% in [----] but the AI-driven demand gap is 20-30%. CLSA raised Phison TP 30% to NT$2600 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191159805730882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191159805730882"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191159805730882)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ MS targets for Taiwan old memory: - Winbond (2344): Top Pick. PT to NT$155 EPS raised 21%/24% for 2026/27 - PSMC (6770): biggest swing. EPS from -NT$1.64 to +NT$8.61. UTR 82% heading to 90-95%. PT NT$88 (+40%) - Nanya (2408): DDR4 pure play. PT to NT$348 - Macronix (2337): MLC NAND + NOR. PT to NT$121"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191161479205082)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ KSVC holds PSMC and Macronix (TWSE Model [--] since Jan 28). also Micron (USA Model 1) longer term setup: MS estimates just [--] ChatGPT-scale models would consume 92% of global NAND supply for inference. legacy memory isnt going anywhere. capacity is shifting to AI and AI is adding demand at every tier. both sides squeezing at once https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191163203154104 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020191163203154104"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020191163203154104)  2026-02-07T17:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Three broker reports on MediaTek dropped back to back. GS upgraded to BUY MS reiterated OW Aletheia at BUY. Nobody's talking about phones anymore. All three are modeling a $7B ASIC business that barely existed [--] months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020498869809983743)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"2/ MTK hosted 4Q25 earnings on Feb [--]. Management raised AI ASIC guidance to US$1B for [----] (from US$1B). Visibility into multiple-billion USD for [----]. Follow-on programs into [----]. They also raised the ASIC TAM to US$70B by [----] (was US$50B). Market share target 10-15% and management called that "a low bar.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020498872385335617)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ GS [----] + [----] estimates: - ASIC revenue: US$1.5B to US$7.0B - Revenue share: 7% to 23% of total - Revenue growth: +15% to +37% - OpM: 15.8% to 20.4% - EPS: NT$66 to NT$110 (+66%) They raised 2027E EPS by 22% on this call alone. TP from NT$1400 to NT$2200"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020498874939609282)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Hon Hai down 5% YTD while GB200/300 server racks ramp into hyperscalers. Both MS and GS dropped bull notes the same week GS put it on the Conviction List at NT$400 MS stayed Overweight at NT$317. 12.4x forward P/E on a name shipping NVIDIA racks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847027912147122)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ The guidance shift matters more than the January number. Management moved from "upper end of last five years" to "better than the range of the past five years" in one month. Mid-quarter guidance upgrades don't happen because things are going fine. Something accelerated. Two drivers: GB200/300 server rack deliveries picking up and iPhone [--] seeing less seasonal destocking than usual"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020847031783424470)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ The revenue estimates diverge. MS models NT$9.3T in [----] revenue. GS models NT$11.1T. That's a NT$1.8T gap between two banks that agree on the direction. For context that gap alone is bigger than most Taiwan companies' total revenue. GS sees 37% revenue growth in 2026E slowing to 23% in 2027E. MS has a more gradual ramp. Same thesis very different math. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847034711031841 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847034711031841"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2020847034711031841)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ On valuation: 12.4x forward P/E at the low end of a one-year average (11-15x). GS targets 21x which is above the historical high end of 20x. They're arguing the shift from pure EMS to AI servers and EVs justifies a structural re-rate. MS at 18x is more conservative but still wants re-rating from the 7-16x range of the past three years. Bull case NT$444 at 26x. Bear case NT$128 at 7x. Asymmetric if the AI server story plays out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847040889295058)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Next real test: March [--] earnings call for 4Q25. That's where management gives the full [----] outlook. If AI server acceleration shows up in the segment numbers the re-rating argument gets a lot louder. Risk side: EV subsidiary Foxtron is doing NT$11mn in January revenue vs NT$708mn a year ago. And if GB200/300 ramp stalls the bear case at 7x P/E is real. Don't hold this one. Watching the March call. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847043472748923 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847043472748923"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847043472748923)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6 Taiwan suppliers just posted January numbers. Power cooling networking racks test equipment. Record revenues almost across the board. Everyone's watching who designs the AI chips. The companies building the physical infrastructure around them are printing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021503430297256311)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ The capex wave driving all of this: - AWS capex guidance $200bn (+55% YoY) 30% above consensus - Meta capex $115-135bn mid-point +78% YoY - [--] Taiwan suppliers hitting record or near-record January revenues - The physical buildout is still lagging the chip ramp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2021503432306327996)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ POWER. Delta MS Top Pick. They do AC-DC DC-DC and [---] VDC power for AI servers. January revenue NT$49.7bn (+33% YoY). Yes it missed estimates. Liquid cooling CDU shipments are project-based and lumpy swinging 25-30% QoQ. Noise. Infrastructure revenue still +37% YoY. Server power revenue grew MoM. The [---] VDC rack adoption cycle is just starting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021503434210558111 http://2308.TW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021503434210558111 http://2308.TW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2021503434210558111)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ COOLING. AVC + Auras AVC: MS sees the ASIC liquid cooling inflection hitting 4Q26. AI ASIC contribution could overtake AI GPU in their cooling mix. Vera Rubin tray thermal value: US$2670 18% above GB300's US$2260. ASIC cooling projects for a major hyperscaler kick off late 2Q26. Auras: record January revenue NT$3042mn (+122% YoY). That number is real. Liquid cooling is 56% of revenue. Management guiding 50%+ YoY growth in [----] with 55%+ liquid cooling exposure. http://3324.TW http://3017.TW http://3324.TW http://3017.TW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2021503436177670174)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ NETWORKING. Accton (TWSE: 2345) Meta's 800G switch supplier. Already contributing 10% of January sales and this started Dec-Jan vs prior Mar-Apr assumptions. Earlier than expected. Daiwa expects Amazon revenue to reach TWD185bn in [----] (+30% YoY) driven by Trainium [--] demand (4M total units this cycle). MQ raised PT to TWD2100 on 2024-27E EPS CAGR of 67%. Switch market TAM growing at 50% CAGR through [----]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511496916931071 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511496916931071"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2021511496916931071)  2026-02-11T09:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ RACKS + TESTING. Chenbro (TWSE: 8210) + Chroma (TWSE: 2360) Chenbro: January sales NT$2650mn (+137% YoY). GPU/ASIC server demand and customized racks pulling in new customers. MS OW with 44% earnings CAGR 2024-27 at a PEG of [---]. Cheapest in the stack. Chroma: record January revenue NT$3826mn (+72% YoY). Citi estimates 50% of revenue is now AI-related. Power testers SLT metrology. If you're testing more chips you need more test equipment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/ksvc_intern/status/2021511582279504044)  2026-02-11T09:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ What I keep watching: - CDU is project-based = lumpy quarterly revenue (see Delta's Jan miss) - Customer concentration. Accton's Meta/AWS exposure is a feature until it's a risk - Trainium [--] mass production delayed [--] quarter upstream 2Q26 downstream 3Q26 - 1H26 demand may be front-loaded (Olympics/World Cup pull-forward in display could affect broader sentiment) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511618463694860 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511618463694860"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021511618463694860)  2026-02-11T09:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6 Taiwan suppliers just posted January numbers. Power cooling networking racks test equipment. Record revenues almost across the board. Everyone's watching who designs the AI chips. The companies building the physical infrastructure around them are printing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021503430297256311)  2026-02-11T08:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ What I keep watching: - CDU is project-based = lumpy quarterly revenue (see Delta's Jan miss) - Customer concentration. Accton's Meta/AWS exposure is a feature until it's a risk - Trainium [--] mass production delayed [--] quarter upstream 2Q26 downstream 3Q26 - 1H26 demand may be front-loaded (Olympics/World Cup pull-forward in display could affect broader sentiment) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511618463694860 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021511618463694860"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021511618463694860)  2026-02-11T09:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ KSVC has skin in the game. Three of these six held in TWSE Model [--] since Jan 13: - Accton (2345): entry NT$1225 now NT$1450 (+18.4%) - Delta (2308): entry NT$1070 now NT$1260 (+17.8%) - Chenbro (8210): entry NT$927 now NT$975 (+5.2%) The thesis is that AI chips get designed then they need physical infrastructure. Still early in the 800G/VDC/liquid cooling cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021511684704399763)  2026-02-11T09:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Hon Hai down 5% YTD while GB200/300 server racks ramp into hyperscalers. Both MS and GS dropped bull notes the same week GS put it on the Conviction List at NT$400 MS stayed Overweight at NT$317. 12.4x forward P/E on a name shipping NVIDIA racks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847027912147122)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ On valuation: 12.4x forward P/E at the low end of a one-year average (11-15x). GS targets 21x which is above the historical high end of 20x. They're arguing the shift from pure EMS to AI servers and EVs justifies a structural re-rate. MS at 18x is more conservative but still wants re-rating from the 7-16x range of the past three years. Bull case NT$444 at 26x. Bear case NT$128 at 7x. Asymmetric if the AI server story plays out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847040889295058)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Next real test: March [--] earnings call for 4Q25. That's where management gives the full [----] outlook. If AI server acceleration shows up in the segment numbers the re-rating argument gets a lot louder. Risk side: EV subsidiary Foxtron is doing NT$11mn in January revenue vs NT$708mn a year ago. And if GB200/300 ramp stalls the bear case at 7x P/E is real. Don't hold this one. Watching the March call. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847043472748923 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020847043472748923"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020847043472748923)  2026-02-09T13:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"told Three broker reports on MediaTek dropped back to back. GS upgraded to BUY MS reiterated OW Aletheia at BUY. Nobody's talking about phones anymore. All three are modeling a $7B ASIC business that barely existed [--] months ago. https://t.co/TGXs84U2sX Three broker reports on MediaTek dropped back to back. GS upgraded to BUY MS reiterated OW Aletheia at BUY. Nobody's talking about phones anymore. All three are modeling a $7B ASIC business that barely existed [--] months ago. https://t.co/TGXs84U2sX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020771439364964791)  2026-02-09T08:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Three broker reports on MediaTek dropped back to back. GS upgraded to BUY MS reiterated OW Aletheia at BUY. Nobody's talking about phones anymore. All three are modeling a $7B ASIC business that barely existed [--] months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020498869809983743)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"ok max long Japan semis Japan defense Kansai infra. see you at Monday open. LFGGG TAKAICHI'S COALITION SET TO WIN 2/3 SUPERMAJORITY IN JAPAN: NHK TAKAICHI'S COALITION SET TO WIN 2/3 SUPERMAJORITY IN JAPAN: NHK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020510788197241320)  2026-02-08T14:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"TAKAICHI'S COALITION SET TO WIN 2/3 SUPERMAJORITY IN JAPAN: NHK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020496005603680264)  2026-02-08T13:52Z 2.5M followers, 128K engagements


"6/ The smartphone worry: 1Q26 revenue guided flat to -6% QoQ. Memory cost inflation hurting demand. GM held at 46%. Management targets 46% for full-year [----] passing through cost increases. GS calls this weakness "largely priced in.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020498880899784868)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"7/ Three houses same read: smartphone weakness is noise ASIC ramp is the story. ASIC goes from near-zero to 23% of revenue in two years. OpM bottoms in [----] then expands to 20%+ as ASIC (margin-accretive) scales up. KSVC holds MTK in TWSE Model [--]. Entry NT$1755 now NT$1710. Down 2.6% but this is an earnings inflection position not a swing trade. Watching the [----] numbers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020498882724278490)  2026-02-08T14:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

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