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# ![@jonchimpo23 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120.png) @jonchimpo23 Jon Chimpo

Jon Chimpo posts on X about inflation, fed, debt, tariffs the most. They currently have [---] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] -47%
- [--] Month [-------] +321%
- [--] Months [-------] -59%
- [--] Year [-------] +5,339%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -24%
- [--] Month [---] +260%
- [--] Months [---] +17%
- [--] Year [-----] +3,238%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.85%
- [--] Month [---] +8.60%
- [--] Months [---] +18%
- [--] Year [---] +2,866%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1798361168911749120/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1798361168911749120/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [social networks](/list/social-networks) 

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation) #2139, [fed](/topic/fed) #589, [debt](/topic/debt), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #2032, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) #1366, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity), [money](/topic/money), [china](/topic/china), [investment](/topic/investment), [has been](/topic/has-been)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@mrderivatives](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@stealthqe4](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@spencerhakimian](/creator/undefined) [@amitisinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@barchart](/creator/undefined) [@longrivercm](/creator/undefined) [@dgsommersmkts](/creator/undefined) [@nickwoolos](/creator/undefined) [@geigercapital](/creator/undefined) [@vladtheinflator](/creator/undefined) [@marketheretic](/creator/undefined) [@stimpyz1](/creator/undefined) [@nateoncannabis](/creator/undefined) [@macroedgeres](/creator/undefined) [@rbernier22](/creator/undefined) [@drewdamn87](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@peruvianbull](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)](/topic/$fslr) [Cameco Corporation (CCJ)](/topic/$ccj) [Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)](/topic/$shls) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [CatCoin (CAT)](/topic/$cat) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock (CORZ)](/topic/$corz) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@Mr_Derivatives Last $AMD mention was golden ๐Ÿ™Œ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1807069284041953459)  2024-06-29T15:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Cuts might be bearish ST for $SPX but rate cuts should let it rip. In theory. I like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1833716143556645059)  2024-09-11T03:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Would have said a possibility a couple weeks ago maybe but if I see more 50bps incoming being whispered ahead to signal its not a panic cut thats my bet. If whispers are slim probably [--] bps. Expecting $SPY to show the Path B switch to Path A move to bigger validation for B then ultimately Path A EOY. ๐ŸŽฏ. Your commentary is on point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1834621790724792339)  2024-09-13T15:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"After the worst fumble since Sanchezs butt fumble I think JPow might be a little scared to ignite inflation. Question is will he commit to further easing this year thats priced in. I think he signals yes but is non committal on magnitude of cuts. Now comes path B for $SPX for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1836461783025943033)  2024-09-18T17:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Terminal Rate up [--] bps per JPow. Thats hawkish. Sucks for people thinking mortgage rates would be significantly lower today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1836779806349734383)  2024-09-19T14:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@WorldSpills @garyblack00 Not to mention they failed to show a $25k-$30k vehicle despite saying people can purchase a robotaxi for under $30k ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1844875168591630619)  2024-10-11T22:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@WorldSpills @garyblack00 You mean that same platform with inductive charging ability to see everywhere at once and potential to improve safety by [--] times backed by the new Cortex supercluster Could it be that platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1844925592170369357)  2024-10-12T02:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheBronxViking Been waiting for the Shrek call all morning. LFG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1855992194286460944)  2024-11-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@camkupka @Mr_Derivatives Thats why its a YOLO and ATM. Daily RSI for short swing trade at 20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1856779586370965712)  2024-11-13T19:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"First I didnt enter trade because hes not recommending to anyone. On todays trading the 14-period RSI was at [--] at the time. You can splice the [--] periods into a single day which is what I was referencing. But Im not here to pick hairs and Im not here for trades Im here for some humor and good vibes. You do you man Switch to [--] day chart and see for yourself ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1856798393131307358)  2024-11-13T20:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Lol. Hope you enjoy your day FYI Im not bullish going into next year and sold most of an epic week. But thats me. Funny thing is wed probably agree on a lot. Always risks especially in a blow-off top event were experiencing now. But Im also no fortune teller. Relaaaaax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1856800656855884211)  2024-11-13T20:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@camkupka @Mr_Derivatives I dont let it go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1857480080232001993)  2024-11-15T17:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MartinShkreli @operationdanish Seriously. Sure at its core that BTC is a liquidity sponge but this chart completely misses is the potential catalyst from untapped liquidity pools of sovereign nations and large/mega cap corp treasuries (with a few exceptions)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1861978117322993863)  2024-11-28T03:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Would need even more IV and OTM calls imo. Think converts are hedging but also writing covered calls collecting 5-10%+ monthly on MSTR. MARA isnt there yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1862517698770485723)  2024-11-29T15:23Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1865029406722265485)  2024-12-06T13:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Just wait until Monday when you find out how much BTC he purchased from share offering. Gotta accrete. Play the premium and look at it as a USD/BTC arbitrage via shelf offering. Only explanation I see especially the reaction on Thursday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1865116025395490910)  2024-12-06T19:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1867049450591621361)  2024-12-12T03:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives If they move more manufacturing of chips stateside ASML ๐Ÿš€. Lets go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1867569076199207003)  2024-12-13T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives What is this volatility you speak of Thankful for a VIX hedge. Youve been sayin it for awhile. Heres why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1869483814223073564)  2024-12-18T20:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Prob wont go long TLT until [--] yr goes over 5% [--] year higher. Debt problem and extreme TBill issuance will add supply on long end of curve. Terminal rate continues to rise. fwiw. When the mean reversion happens tho itll be quick and its tough to time. Like the thought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1872441637328323067)  2024-12-27T00:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ron172892111531 @Mr_Derivatives 1/ Yellen refinanced many of the 10-30 yr bonds in more [--] year debt. So not only must we refinance 10-30s coming due we must also refinance the excess TBill issuances into long term debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1872622494852829430)  2024-12-27T12:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1874073216039477658)  2024-12-31T12:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@amitisinvesting I was ok with accretive property from viewing as BTC/USD arbitrage despite typically being dilutive through share issuance. Near term thesis around an upward catalyst when he announces ATM is done. But then he says he will issue 30x more Thats too much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1874089937009860901)  2024-12-31T13:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Love Vix Crush Fridays"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1875260721216495979)  2025-01-03T19:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1876023649658118211)  2025-01-05T21:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives WBA tho ๐Ÿค‘"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1877704349402419410)  2025-01-10T13:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@amitisinvesting Druck ๐Ÿ best in class in marco events and he has been right most of [----]. Choose him because of diversification and risk management on macro events"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1878602705389998264)  2025-01-13T00:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Prob because PPI although lower YOY is continuing an upward march ๐Ÿ˜ฌ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1879179334776410316)  2025-01-14T14:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Jan and Feb [--] of the hottest inflation reports of the year. Especially considering services increases prices at start of the year. Kinda lines up with mid Feb growth scare thesis ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1879667684885061730)  2025-01-15T23:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives @BSBG0731 Yup. Yellens fiscal backed him in a corner but he fumbled worse than Mark Sanchez in Jan [--] when he said I have one foot forward ready to cut. Now hes trapped. Raise and keep inflation in check but spur unemployment or cut and keep employment in check and spur inflation. ๐Ÿ˜ต๐Ÿ’ซ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1880626952455045155)  2025-01-18T14:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Well per the greatest quant work Ive seen in my lifetime isnt today just a red day ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด you are here ๐ŸŸข"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1881717927956955507)  2025-01-21T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Does the strengthening dollar help offset some of the tariff impact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1886174402225508436)  2025-02-02T22:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿ’ฏ Ill tell you tho its been so overcrowded in $VIX Been hitting the trends and bid AND ask were below intrinsic value for the spike and the drop for 2/19s. Not claiming to be a genius with the strategy but too many players"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1887943705505448008)  2025-02-07T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@TraderBaba_ @amitisinvesting @KrisPatel99 Also- bond prices go up when yields fall. So there is potential for capital appreciation due to actives of higher than market coupon rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1897302923425837206)  2025-03-05T15:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Better be able to evolve to something awesum or take it. Sticking with the old wont cut it and youre probably already behind. Lets see Kodak Blockbuster (who could have owned 49% of NFLX for $50mm) Who else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1897480391612653787)  2025-03-06T02:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@OraclumCapital Risk management is wise too depending on concentration/individual situation Of course my opinion isnt one size fits all either and is not financial advice. Appreciate the reminder of real risks and potential headwinds they are definitely valid. This is why fintwit is great"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1897692839347146933)  2025-03-06T16:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@TKLSubscribers Risk management and flexibility ๐Ÿ”‘ Keen navigating it isnt easy Does [----] hold again [--] times in [--] days 4th test here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1897700576189956428)  2025-03-06T17:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DickLeaky2 @MakeItCount4US @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Robotics advancement is the ๐Ÿ”‘ Apple has [-----] employees in China currently. There are [--] jobs here. With an upfront investment say you need [----] here. Thats still [----] more jobs here. Long term increases margins. You assume the same number of workers here are needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898194648738189804)  2025-03-08T02:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DickLeaky2 @MakeItCount4US @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Less workers = lower labor costs in US (not more expensive) = net positive new jobs in US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898196011337625899)  2025-03-08T02:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MakeItCount4US @DickLeaky2 @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Good point and definitely not assuming no robotics. China has incredible efficiency. Im speaking to future advancements. Im bullish on innovation being unlocked in US Productivity drives down prices. And fair trade could drive exports Deficits cost us more than goods"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898204081841189308)  2025-03-08T02:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Posting the word AI or mentioning AI on an earnings call expecting to see the stock price go up is so [----]. Way behind yet again ๐Ÿ˜‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898498869496782918)  2025-03-08T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@KrisPatel99 Rate cuts (monetary) and gov spending (fiscal) cause inflation Dual Mandate of Fed (monetary) is low unemployment and sustained inflation Cuts boost unemployment hikes curb inflation To keep 10yr down need stable inflation Rate cuts change [--] yr but not [--] yr rn. Would go up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898821657898389736)  2025-03-09T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@KrisPatel99 Stagflation would emerge because it takes time for cuts to ripple through so low growth. On the flip inflation would go up and is only anchored to 2.5% not 2%. Thats JPow dilemma. Walking a literal tight rope"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1898822120051810345)  2025-03-09T19:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@grok @AleSh09758566 @HellenistReborn @zerohedge @grok more specifically for financial sector leverage ratio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899283135948337176)  2025-03-11T02:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Right because $WBA in SP500 has been amazing ๐Ÿ˜‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899585325027950987)  2025-03-11T22:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Ill be on the short side on $VIX soon. Ill tell ya that for free"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899619339675811843)  2025-03-12T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Ill have my ๐Ÿฟ X going to be lit either way๐Ÿ˜‚ If it surprises down: Growth really slowing (68% of GDP is consumer driven) Spark recession fears vs the rate cut NOW crowd celebrating If it surprises up: Resilience sparks inflation crowd vs [--] yr rises and rate cut crowd ๐Ÿคฏ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899648907006603681)  2025-03-12T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Inflation came in lower than expected yet the [--] yr note is up Why [--]. We still havent fully quelled inflation concerns and March is first print that shows impact. Liquidity crunch offsets this [--]. We have new issue auction today. Its a sign demand is flat. Mixed signals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899822594519380048)  2025-03-12T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Continued spending bills and aid packages that were paid for through TGA increases it. In fact from 2021-2024 it was actually QE because TGA and RRP offset QT by $417B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899898455855714517)  2025-03-12T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives I mean Walmart cured cancer and Costco is the leader in AI They deserved to have insane multiples ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ But for real dont get me wrong I love $COST for their meats and TP but with 2.81% margin it was nuts. Still is I get theyre expanding but Im still not biting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899910844223545776)  2025-03-12T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Yellen played a large role. Mainly she issued over 20% of our debt T Bills (under [--] yr) and [--] yr notes. By doing so she artificially kept [--] yr down and thats why yield curve was inverted so long. Low supply on [--] yr notes = artificially compressed rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899913174716961105)  2025-03-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Bingo. Now Id prefer Fed do QE by increasing their balance sheet. If JPow is buying bonds it will increase demand and keep [--] yr tame while slower paced rate cuts fight a potential second wave. Just like banks Fed has big losses on debt from QE infinity (2008-2025)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1899951267541090713)  2025-03-12T22:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter UMich expectations have become politically polarized. Inflation: Dem: 6.5% GOP: 0.1% Consumer Confidence: Dem: [----] GOP: [----] It is important and notable both did show declines in consumer sentiment since we have a consumer driven economy however divergence is extreme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900580125827039625)  2025-03-14T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@peruvian_bull The BTFB already closed to new loans on 3/11/24 All had a [--] yr maturity so its been repayments. Not taking away point on liquidity crunch domestically/air pocket. It should be $0 b/c [--] mo term for last loans. Sure repayment but its not a tappable source anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900632486134034683)  2025-03-14T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull Asset Based Financing is a key contributor. Banks will package auto loans non performing loans risk swaps etc. PE is even lending against private equity ports to pay LPs faster. Proliferation of upcoming Private Credit ETFs is worrisome. Investors become the liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900651309352595943)  2025-03-14T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull So as Fed cuts their yield goes down. But to remain competitive and attract investors they do a few things. [--]. Leverage their leverage to loan 130-150% more than the capital they have [--]. Take higher risk loans to get more yield like buying subprime auto loan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900656618443817410)  2025-03-14T21:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull In [----] they packaged subprime loans with high quality loans (that werent as high of quality as perceived because underwriting doesnt account for a credit event) to have attractive yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900656780822134844)  2025-03-14T21:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dindunuffin0 @Redfisher1967 @Geiger_Capital Exactly. It has to be. We cant leverage 25% growth through adding to a deficit forever Supply and demand ultimately dictates bond yields. Larger deficits = more supply (debt issuance) = lower prices/higher yield We have $2T in private investment stimulus coming that costs $0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900727364323074529)  2025-03-15T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Why in October after a [--] bps cut did I expect yields to rise Its not some lucky guess. Its not a complex model. You cant time it but it happens 10/10 times. Its the central tenet of investing Everything and I mean EVERYTHING reverts to the mean. @Mr_Derivatives The terminal rate rose again in last meeting which has an affect. Although a moving target that suggests 4.20% range on [--] yr. Also interesting as large refinances come up and after [--] years of mostly issuing TBills the Treasury has to issue longer dated flooding supply while @Mr_Derivatives The terminal rate rose again in last meeting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900750912986976596)  2025-03-15T03:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I was hoping to avoid having to cut If we overshoot to deflation the growth scare likely intensifies Contrary to popular belief having to cut rates is not bullish for stocks near term Deflation is why July saw a growth scare in [----] 1/3 @TheLongInvest Understanding this is ๐Ÿ”‘ Disinflation (lower pace but +) was needed DEflation ((-) inflation) isnt as good as it sounds Nearly 70% of economy is consumer driven and sustainable inflation stunts growth Its why the dual mandate for inflation is 2% not 0% JPows behind now @TheLongInvest Understanding this is ๐Ÿ”‘ Disinflation (lower pace but +) was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1900974023485325603)  2025-03-15T18:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter We shouldnt be reliant on where rates Average coupon of existing debt is 3.3% Long dated is lower considering record TBill issuances so as old QE infinity era debt matures itll keep growing Paying down is the only way to change. We are a ways out from that right now tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1901360094572625967)  2025-03-16T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Belly of the curve is volatile Yield curve needs to steepen and normalize. [--] yr supply is high. [--] ways to steepen [--]. Need TBills to drop soon [--]. Belly rises long end rises Scenario [--] is critical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1901622280293077145)  2025-03-17T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Meanwhile Capital One and Discover surpassed 6% charge offs. Issuers are beginning to start lowering credit revolving limits leaving fewer resources to tap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902143799863738731)  2025-03-18T23:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@amitisinvesting The [--] on $COST cracks me up ๐Ÿ˜‚ They have a whopping 3% profit margin lol I do love shopping at Costco tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902162143719428603)  2025-03-19T00:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@amitisinvesting ๐Ÿ’ฏ If someone told me $COST would be sporting a [----] PEG while $NVDA was at a .81 PEG I would have thought it was a bad joke ๐Ÿ˜‚ Ill just but [---] hotdogs instead of a share because yes they are crazy delicious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902184908199535045)  2025-03-19T02:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter @Kalshi People forget the long and variable lags. It is amplified when things like the RRP and TGA offset the entire QT by over $417B. Now its years of QT compounded into this year. Meanwhile dont forget Sept-Dec [----] cuts havent full rippled through the economy yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902399085845381163)  2025-03-19T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"After digesting Fed minutes and policy change important note: The Fed tapered QT from $25B/month to $5B/mo. The Fed has [--] levers- Balance sheet- buying treasuries (QE) or letting them roll off (QT)- long term yields Fed Funds Rate cuts- short term yields This move provides support to the [--] yr staying in the 400-450 range for now. This is precisely why the long end moved in greater magnitude after JPow announced with yields flipping from up on the day to down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902559275144114448)  2025-03-20T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CryptoDavide33 @dgsommersmkts The bet lies in if they actually get deficit down and pay down some debt Kicks the can sure but things seriously break at [---] bps + [--] yr. Only a bandaid to ladder out concentration Going to big QE is bad can only push so far before causing what they are trying to avoid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902797669883388015)  2025-03-20T19:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CryptoDavide33 @dgsommersmkts Depends on whether you think Bessent is trying to do what he says over time. Im optimistic while inspecting along the way. Doesnt mean Im bullish near term by any means but at this point Id rather be viewed as naive while hoping for the best and planning for the worst"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1902822802513674318)  2025-03-20T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@marian150819 @peruvian_bull True. Stability. But worth it at the cost of 263% of GDP in debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1903974098386014337)  2025-03-24T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904189616959189045)  2025-03-24T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Tariffs are definitely the key for initial move. However under the surface some good results for GDP estimates from SP Global @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904189965551943908)  2025-03-24T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Tariffs are definitely the key for initial move. However under the surface some good results for GDP estimates from SP Global US economy is primarily a services economy so expansion is promising. Services PMI [----] vs expectation of [----]. Over [--] is expansionary. @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904192037848543606)  2025-03-24T15:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PaulAllenCFA SP Global Services PMI a big surprise on upside supports expansion and these trades for sure. Meanwhile manufacturing is back to contraction helping somewhat defend against inflationary pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904200221287924147)  2025-03-24T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Do you think a need to deleverage some has had an affect too A lot of hedge funds got stopped out last week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904253560809734248)  2025-03-24T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA Keeping it simple here. MACD crossover and curl up โœ… RSI right around [--] Need to turn the 200SMA into support from resistance Test tomorrow seems likely ๐Ÿ‘€"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904307116807983213)  2025-03-24T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives CB Consumer Confidence up tomorrow mornin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1904334648072704386)  2025-03-25T00:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@007ofWallSt @Barchart They cant pivot. Truly in a corner Hiking rates ultimately only way they get inflation down. But they have 263% of GDP in debt so you get in default risk- long end yields Cutting rates ignites significant inflation risk- long end yields"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1905083252278190383)  2025-03-27T02:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis If you double our debt for example how can you keep the amount of buying needed going Just look at what happened to the [--] yr Bunds yield when they announced more spending. ๐Ÿš€"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906073743522509144)  2025-03-29T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis You are looking at nominal ignoring supply outpacing demand. Looking at [--] year to prove a point is short sighted. And yes China ownership has been falling. Japan has been slower. Feel free to fact check these numbers in below context. Spending jump began [----] hence EOY 2019"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906147749810086315)  2025-03-30T00:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis UST Debt EOY [----] $22.72T vs 2025- $36.22T % Change +59.3% Foreign Holders of UST EOY [----] $6.78T vs 2025- $8.53T % Change +25.8% China EOY [----] $1.104T vs [----] $760.8B % Change (31%) Japan [----] $1.15T vs 2025- 1.079T % Change- (6%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906148301159776346)  2025-03-30T00:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Wrong how UST Debt EOY [----] $22.72T vs 2025- $36.22T % Change +59.3% Foreign Holders of UST EOY [----] $6.78T vs 2025- $8.53T % Change +25.8% China EOY [----] $1.104T vs 2025- $760.8B % Change (31%) Japan [----] $1.15T vs 2025- 1.079T % Change (6%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906346261185265850)  2025-03-30T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Do you understand supply and demand What happens when supply outpaces demand Prices go down which for bonds mean yields go up. In my view continuing to run a higher deficit makes long end go up regardless of fed rate cuts. Of course higher rates arent better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906370761637408912)  2025-03-30T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Somewhat. I am saying that there is a dangerous line continuing to run such large deficits that will eventually be crossed Remove predictive and acknowledge as a risk. Change will result to could result. Extent of that risk is debatable but the risk itself isnt nonsense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906373289179492395)  2025-03-30T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"As for better in no defined context again not prediciting. We have gotten to a point where asset prices must reflect ultra low rates as everything from Cap rates in CRE mortgage rates stock valuation ranges and more are correlated to the [--] yr. Sep [----] prime example as [--] yr detached from Fed cuts. Its why he tapered instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906373323656699940)  2025-03-30T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis TBD. 300-325bps would support valuayions where they are. But a lot has to be sorted to get to accurate terminal rate You might take this as a cop out but if rates on [--] yr go above [---] bps then things begin to crack imo. More about establishing a resistance for me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906375310892753259)  2025-03-30T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis And the TDB revolves highly around replacing spending in GDP and timing. Since US GDP is calculated as consumer spending + direct investment + gov spending (excluding ssi healthcare etc) + (Exports-Imports) it is difficult to predict out a long ways if GS goes down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906377858693423219)  2025-03-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Beyond that I will say that theories of causing a recession solely to spur a safety trade to lower rates in order to roll debt is dumb. That fixes absolutely nothing. I do not support those who claim that so Id venture to guess thats another thing we can agree on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906382304571719710)  2025-03-30T16:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis I will also say that the risk I claim COULD be overstated And theoretically demand COULD continue to support a growing deficit. The elephant in the room to me lies in how the yield curve steepens. Neither way guarantees the desired outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906383851087130682)  2025-03-30T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Great read David. I agree. The deficit never reverted back to the mean (which was unsustainable as it was) accelerating the concentration of inevitable supply risk and QE infinity As they say bonds are more logical than stocks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906424697727697066)  2025-03-30T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Decoupling of traditional correlation between equities and gold last year exposes the polarization of opinion much as weve seen on UMich surveys Conversely bonds sold off after cuts. Now the stalling of the safety trade shifting to gold further exposes supply/default risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906425040586862742)  2025-03-30T19:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Thinking out loud but Im not going on a limb expecting a volatile week. The equity market is more emotional than the Notebook right now. Not much you can do about that. Meanwhile gold is up to $3140. Shes done me wrong many times but GDX has finally begun to revert to its historical gap this year vs gold valuations. Forward P/E sub [--] understated.my only leveraged play in long port Both need to consolidate soonish and if that happens or GDX drops with equities ๐ŸŽฏ But dont think this week or next and solid fundies give support so tradable this week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1906543038018842960)  2025-03-31T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Somehow HY spreads continue to be historically narrow which is odd Pricing in low default risk although they have been widening but not by much historically speaking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907096849242009600)  2025-04-01T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@amitisinvesting The last mile of inflation is the trickiest. Expansive QE on balance sheet in [----] fed to inflation and inflated asset valuations. His massive MBS purchasings been a key driver in keeping housing cost high Im not so sure his legacy is solidified regardless of tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907098088772145430)  2025-04-01T15:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"With continued down estimates on GDP its important to understand the components. While calculating and tracking are massive undertakings the equation itself is simple and easy to understand. Heres the calc: Real GDP = Consumer Spending (C) + Investment (I) + Gov Spending (G) + Exports - Imports (NX) - Inflation ๐Ÿงต"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907122350618763417)  2025-04-01T17:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Meanwhile consumer loan asset-based finance private credit funds keep popping up more and more. They are bundling Auto loans and credit card receivables"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907224009080439076)  2025-04-02T00:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@813JAFERD @SpencerHakimian That is the ultimate key if fair trade is ultimately negotiated with fewer export barriers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907606604695904537)  2025-04-03T01:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Youre not going to like this buuuuut GDX with a massive bounce after being dragged with equities ๐Ÿ‘€"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907798762312835239)  2025-04-03T14:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Got it. So ballooning asset prices offsetting any decline in GDP with spending and creating job growth through expanding government is the way. Inflation comes in waves. Ever heard of long and variable lags of monetary policy Your assumptions show your age The $JPM stock pick you made a few weeks ago was ๐Ÿ”ฅ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907930911775273100)  2025-04-03T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter More deed in lieu of foreclosure deals coming through with syndicators buying for note Meanwhile private credit is gobbling up auto credit card and non performing residential at a faster pace Are CRE syndicators and ABF Private Credit bailing them out with investor funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907958873475928127)  2025-04-04T00:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter And private credit is packaging them with auto loans at an alarming pace transferring risk to investors. Asset based consumer finance is growing fast. They are providing liquidity that shouldnt be there through unsuspecting investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907959289404428322)  2025-04-04T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives @JusBlaze___ I need to find a Delorean and short Black Monday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1907974586060231033)  2025-04-04T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting chart from GS. Asset valuations havre inflated just like goods have as a result of irresponsible fiscal spending. Earnings guidance will be front and center this quarter as there is no buffer for downward revisions. Disclaimer: I am not a perma bear. I dont like losing money but being out of the market can be the riskiest move in a long portfolio. Things can rapidly evolve (especially right now) so you cant trade on emotion or a single chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908588253503963586)  2025-04-05T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿคฏ Had to check myself. Ok so if I could travel back in time Id short the market Friday prior AND short the VIX at close on Black Monday PS I โค TOS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908626693277049058)  2025-04-05T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian Based on the rest of his comments its pretty clear when he said savings accounts he was referencing RETIREMENT savings accounts which means saving for retirement thru 401ks IRAs etc and not implying a bank savings account"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908903723843170751)  2025-04-06T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Makes sense since valuations are so cheap now (Sarcastic font) This is when diversification matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908947418487357550)  2025-04-06T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian Got it. So only unbiased views while calling a bunch of people clowns and retardio while mocking autism. Nice The emotional penguin tariff tantrum shows it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908951461322424739)  2025-04-06T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian Thinking anyone who is trying to have a conversation on a bigger picture doesnt understand basic retirement plans is incredibly ignorant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908956743444443633)  2025-04-06T18:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian You literally proved my point for me on diversification. Thanks IRAs also consist of mutual funds stocks bonds CDs and ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1908957916851249495)  2025-04-06T19:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Just for hedge fund margin calls then boing boing (finally)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909078499295453284)  2025-04-07T02:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Ackmans rep truly peaked the day before he mocked Buffet ๐Ÿ˜‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909091999719833773)  2025-04-07T03:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@RuralDad @wallstreetkid87 @JPATrades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909352288864669928)  2025-04-07T21:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Futures up big again. So far the capitulation that appeared Sunday evening is holding. Headwinds: Wednesday: Reaction to tariffs going live. I feel they stay because the ultimate goal is deals. Friday: JPM earnings before open. Dimons comments will be telling as many rely on his outlooks for the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909584163419599221)  2025-04-08T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is a massive move. [--] yr swaps on SOFR are based on long run expected Fed Funds rate uh guys. https://t.co/30HcaxFHt7 uh guys. https://t.co/30HcaxFHt7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909707256972575107)  2025-04-08T20:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This looks most likely to be a liquidity crunch acceleration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909709603480482132)  2025-04-08T20:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Bingo Anyone wondering why Ken Griffin is being so vocal Or why Steve Cohen and Point72 said severe crash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909787104390881663)  2025-04-09T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"What could happen from the treasury carry trade being forced to unwind Major implications: [--]. Massive selling pressure in treasuries [--]. Liquidity crunch and margin calls potentially freezing repo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909832722811408800)  2025-04-09T04:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Will_DeCotiis @SpencerHakimian Yes Fed most definitely if forced to step in. Its bigger though. Began with domestic treasury carry trade imo with a cascade. Dollar popped first not yen running next will be euro but ultimately dollar up up up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909846049021210881)  2025-04-09T05:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ollieclinch I know you probably dont want to hear this but nothing. IV is at an extreme and if you are caught on the wrong side it will not end well because of the high premiums"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909858931138080812)  2025-04-09T06:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If anyone wants to see how arbitrage trades blow up look no further than LTCM (Long Term Capital Management). Arbitrage by definition is a risk free trade but nothing is risk free and crowding is the #1 enemy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909949286336364949)  2025-04-09T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"LTCM was a hedge fund with Nobel peace prize winners many of which we use for calculations in options and rates. Namely Scholes of the Black Scholes formula and Merton who created the Merton model for credit default measurements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909949287733096697)  2025-04-09T12:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter New pools of liquidity changes A LOT even with in the midst of a liquidity crunch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1909996429411549449)  2025-04-09T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Looks like the PPT and Fed may have swooped to provide support for the auction. Surprised but its potentially good news. Eagerly awaiting FOMC although they may remain mum on the subject"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910017351459779011)  2025-04-09T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Remember Real GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov Spending (excluding benefits like SSI) + (Exports - Imports) - Inflation deflator My guess- Q1- Consumption flat investment up A LOT spend up and a big trade deficit from big imports which is a net negative GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910331271898595351)  2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"With the inflation piece being lower for the quarter than Q1 [----] this leads me to expect 0-0.5%. Is the economy slowing Yes. Thats to be expected as we trim government spending spend. Its literally part of the equation so it must be offset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910331273345720608)  2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"To offset the loss in GDP deals will focus on driving exports and investment. I do not see [--] back to back quarters of negative GDP at this point and the components of GDP are being reworked to cut government spending without crashing the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910331274847277292)  2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AsianWinky @KobeissiLetter Yes I meant that decision. Agree- Scott Bessent is the most deft Treasury Sec we have had in decades His understanding of macro is such a positive for the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910365040147873820)  2025-04-10T16:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BotheWan [--]. Government stimulus and bail out- Without broad investment and deficit cuts this would be ultimately counterproductive to goal of lowering deficit. I do not think we are at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910384608795107613)  2025-04-10T17:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BotheWan [--]. Do nothing- Default risk increases in credit markets like credit cards auto FHA mortgages CRE loans and mainly Private Credit face significant headwinds and perhaps crack more/defaults rise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910384803494473772)  2025-04-10T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BotheWan To note- high yield bond spread to treasuries has been rising which shows increased default risk but have not fully blown out to be a true signal yet. This is not a collapse but a sign something needs to happen and it will probably be the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910385416898740659)  2025-04-10T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterGazdik @KeenHu1 @zerohedge SOFR swaps spreads are cooked. IMO JPow is behind. Has been for [--] years. TGA and RRP offset all the QT until now as we face a liquidity crunch thats been coiling for over [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910461289500987509)  2025-04-10T22:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@grok @KeenHu1 @PeterGazdik @zerohedge @grok interesting you mention RRP as a viable response given current conditions. It peaked after COVID and has been nearly drained since Q1 [----] right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910479031771803935)  2025-04-10T23:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JetLife_DSA_522 @amitisinvesting Thank man. Things werent making sense until then. All in all we are in a significant liquidity crunch rn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910503597957054852)  2025-04-11T01:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Im afraid its a bad position the Fed is in David. There is a 20-100x levered treasury carry trade that is about $1.5T or 2x all of Chinas bonds. I saw yields spike 10bps in seconds. If we hit a feedback loop then they will be forced to step in but not with rate cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910527971028246530)  2025-04-11T02:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts Woof. Deed in lieu of foreclosure sales definitely on the rise. Itll hide foreclosures and this is where the new 90%+ LTVs are emerging from. Banks kicking the can extending the loan. Meanwhile investors who were in this sadly are seeing a TOTAL loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910677965010063777)  2025-04-11T12:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Not unexpectly I feel this confirms China selling is likely the spark. With swap spreads nosediving the liquidity crunch clearly is continuing. Why is someone stepping in though It could be because there is an expectation that Fed is stepping in soon. Another possibility is reworking capital requirements for banks to step in. Or a combo of both were the buyers. Hard to speculate but someone is either trying to get ahead of a Fed bail out/the PPT getting liquidity or placing a large bet. Im dont think its a flight to safety though. It's not just the basis trade today https://t.co/Ye2FPy5KhI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910745379018092691)  2025-04-11T17:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I think the Fed steps in before anything truly breaks. But demand to buy can only go so far so getting back below 4% on [--] yr is unlikely. Over 5% and it ripples into many assets. All speculation but I feel China selling sparked the trade putting the hedge funds on the wrong side of the trade. There is clear evidence (SOFR/UST swap spreads nosediving) of a large liquidity crunch. How it breaks is if there is a feedback loop of margin calls on the hedge funds. This trade wont directly affect stocks atm as its arbitrage of cash treasuries and treasury futures"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910746605164343406)  2025-04-11T17:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"It has to an extent already. Like higher mortgage rates this week. And the question is if its a temporary liquidity crunch which is my base case. If no intervention from the Fed an extreme scenario (not prediction and not there) is the credit freeze ripples into many aspects. Inability to get new credit. Credit card limits being cut in half and getting closed. Massive stress on commercial real estate recovery. Lower stock valuation multiples. But someone (Likely the Fed) will step in because the economy cant go through another tightening cycle. And there is a sliver of chance that there is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910749768411652514)  2025-04-11T17:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts Im watching CNBC talk about how the Fed doesnt actually need to do create a new facility because we have facilities like the repo in place. Have they looked at the repo chart the past [--] years ๐Ÿ˜‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1910757323062104423)  2025-04-11T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@amitisinvesting @NewtonianRN ๐ŸŽฏ Only thing Id add is if Fed goes QE through growing balance sheet thats how they could influence long end of curve more-so although it comes at a cost Although deficit and inflation will ultimately determine range. Appreciate your commentary man"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911610451449827598)  2025-04-14T02:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CryptoDavide33 @KobeissiLetter ๐Ÿ’ฏ totally agree. Held to maturity holdings have large material losses Been seeing so many Asset-Based Finance Consumer Private Credit funds emerging bundling cc auto debt and residential mortgage mortgage to free up capital requirements Obv I wouldnt touch those funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911863950238495056)  2025-04-14T19:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian Lol. Meanwhile Gov spend fuels more and more GDP growth while interest expense is parabolic Wealth gap is at extremes. Maybe since you come from wealth are young and get to pay capital gains rates on most of your income with carried interest loophole it skews your view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911880772111180060)  2025-04-14T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Very true hedge funds closer to 1-1.5%ish and 10-15%ish probably good call out. Regardless this is not remotely what Portfolio Managers earn. They never earn profit carry. PMs closer to .65% and dropping as actively managed ETFs further squeeze out SMAs and mutual funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911882474650550363)  2025-04-14T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@sugarbets_ @SpencerHakimian Its actually the growing annual interest expense on treasury debt due to insane gov spending. As a % of GDP the only other instance we saw massive waves of inflation. [----] saw an entirely new standard of spending which has propped GDP as its literally part of the equation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911896484976738538)  2025-04-14T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian And hedge funds have no role being on the wrong sides of trades Lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911937968115245369)  2025-04-15T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@amitisinvesting @zerohedge So true Cant cut either. Trapped. Compared to US debt issue: Debt to GDP- 2.15x more (263% vs 122%) BOJ balance sheet 3.44x more (43% vs. 12.5%) Currently in first wave of inflation like [----] in US Bad spot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1911980315813310909)  2025-04-15T03:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@steve2bacon Frfr. Have you seen anything besides the filing from NVDA of the source escalating to outright ban Seems like its still licensing which was already in place just moved up It doesnt matter to me Biden wrote it or Trump expedited just trying to sift through the noiiiiise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1912321424275931561)  2025-04-16T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The problem is reporting requirements hide the insane risk taking. They pay capital gains rates on profit share even though it wasnt their money it should be treated as income. Who else gets to pay lower taxes on compensation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1912633785931178289)  2025-04-16T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge RIP hedgies. Hedge Fund is an oxymoron"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1912683446360563730)  2025-04-17T01:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@HeidingOut Youre spot on. I was against cuts last year. Literally no reason to like youve said. Now liquidity is gone and growth is slowing. Longer he waits the more the printer will have to be used and the balance sheet will explode even more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913223163535581268)  2025-04-18T13:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VladTheInflator Question- would you rather he wait and potentially be forced to issue massive QE and inflate the balance sheet again OR would you rather do a rate cut. Liquidity is gone (SOFR hellooooo ๐Ÿ‘€). Growth slowing QE is far more inflationary with wider long and variable lags"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913225037227737113)  2025-04-18T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There are ways to get liquidity in private equity via secondary offerings (like they did in [----] for different reasons). Valuing is not impossible hard with revenue EBITDA or CRE with cap rates. There is a potential issue of smoothed appraisals and lack of deals affecting multiples but secondaries are important to mention usually 10-20% discount to NAV. Most hedge funds are semi liquid. They are likely lending on NAVs of PE rather than selling as the interest is a lot less than 10-20% discount. The bigger issue is the $9B of funding. The endowment cant handle that long term regardless of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913753352682553431)  2025-04-20T00:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Yes you are acknowledging secondaries. There are also NAV loans. There are a lot of places to get liquidity on the illiquid portfolio. Secondaries demand is strong. The bigger and really only legitimate reason at this point is the endowments restrictions/spending limits they have not liquidity/investment strategy being the main culprit as you imply its a secondary issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913755367667879992)  2025-04-20T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"True except that was [---] years ago. To start beginning in [----] the Fed went to new great lengths of magnitude never seen. Increasing the balance sheet in multiples higher than ever before buying UST and MBS creates additional artificial demand therefore suppressed long yields significantly no It seems like its not currently as Fed is in QT losing control of the long end as it should be but not during times of QE and balance sheet growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913971552418140374)  2025-04-20T15:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"True however I would consider the long and variable lags of monetary policy particularly with QE. The balance sheet increased 10x. A clear example is housing where QE not only enabled the [--] yr suppression by creating artificial demand (although Yellen played a massive role limiting supply through excess tbill issuance) but purchasing 30% of MBS outstanding too. Yields should have been much higher then and it distorts it. This further influences a greater long and variable lag as seen in home values increasing far beyond free markets would have dictated. I am not sure you can justify how"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1913985409241010243)  2025-04-20T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Correct if solely focusing on FFR while discounting any logical effect of QE/balance sheet impacts with the long end of the curve. It is hard to believe free markets alone would have kept the inversion in place for so long had the Fed not created significant amounts of demand out of thin air"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1914000643062374645)  2025-04-20T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings @StockSavvyShay @finchat_io The export control was only pushed up a month in time. Its been known for the H20 since Jan [--] [----]. Perhaps NVDA should stop spending so much trying to undermine years of attempted export controls ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1914457923209535574)  2025-04-21T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It would be prudent if Government Spending wasnt directly calculated in the GDP equation. I feel this has allowed spending to make up any gaps for political gain while prolonging inevitable parts of the business cycle. GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov spend (excluding benefits) + Exports - Imports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916212036620718316)  2025-04-26T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This is why driving private investment and trade deficits down is such a focus. I continue to focus on the outcome as there are so many possibilities but this must be done to cut government spending. So far $7T investment committed with some long term commitments. Have to keep it going ๐Ÿ˜ฌ @SpencerHakimian It would be prudent if Government Spending wasnt directly calculated in the GDP equation. I feel this has allowed spending to make up any gaps for political gain while prolonging inevitable parts of the business cycle. GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov spend (excluding @SpencerHakimian It"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916233533254680804)  2025-04-26T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Based on current global M2 lag Im expecting first stop to $150-$160k on BTC in [--] days. Since the break of upper Bollinger Band a short consolidation period then next legs higher would be choice. If BTCs price gets there sooner I see it as meaning only one thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916261375707435208)  2025-04-26T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ekwufinance @KobeissiLetter Bingo. It never stopped was just taking off its rails briefly thanks to over leveraged hedge funds on the wrong side of trades with a liquidity crunch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916266069825642550)  2025-04-26T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Private credit has become a major player in leveraged buyout (LBO) PE. This is when a Private Equity firm will buy a company using debt most being 60-65% debt vs 40-35% equity (investor dollars). Banks have covenants and are more equipped to weather the storm and extend or take over. Proliferating in [----] Private credit became a major player in leveraged buyout PE. They offered less underwriting and 75-90% leverage at times. Deals banks were not doing. This 40% number is accurate for private credit LBO but likely overstates the risks for banks (who are also packaging and selling to private"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916294736979071393)  2025-04-27T00:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@timreward10101 @SpencerHakimian ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916468366392373434)  2025-04-27T12:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@timreward10101 @SpencerHakimian Im not trying to imply this is solely one persons fault. I am saying the problem created over years and years finally came to a head due to the factors you mentioned putting the US now in a spot where we may have reached a path of no return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916478093490803021)  2025-04-27T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Many cite that the floating rate nature makes it a great investment in a rising rate environment The irony however is that it also makes the underlying investments prone to payment risk with increasing debt services Further when rates fall risk is increased through leverage or riskier loans to maintain a competitive yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916499557359235175)  2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There are many types but here are the primary categories [--]. Direct Lending- 36-50% of private credit. This is lending aiding in leveraged buy outs (LBO). [--]. Asset Backed Finance- backed by pools of debt like mortgages credit cards or auto loans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916499559196278886)  2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3. Asset Based- usually backed by collateral like equipment or inventory [--]. Real Estate- used to finance or bridge commercial real estate [--]. Specialty Finance- Such as purchasing airplanes to lease out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916499560723103883)  2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives $ETH becoming the $AMD of crypto. Going to have to start calling it Empty Treasure Hack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1916662617805881362)  2025-04-28T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HOOD looking strong ahead of earnings. Lagging its momentum friend PLTR. Feel earnings will be another strong beat. They continue to innovate and as they navigate prediction markets a big opportunity ahead as they continue to gain ground in crypto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917057646231773654)  2025-04-29T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NickWoolos Why do you think there is an insane variance like Ive never seen between ATL Fed and NY Fed ATL was always over optimistic in contraction before. Now the opposite. Guess we will find out tomorrow anyway ha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917299216260456694)  2025-04-29T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Cutting rates isnt QE. Asset purchasing is which is what I am referencing. As in buying $4.5T+ of treasuries and agency MBS from 2020-2021. That is the over reach of influence I am discussing. With both parties btw Balance sheet grew from $800B in [----] to a peak of $9T. There is a long and variable lag on inflationary effects. And we have no idea how this round has affected since its never been done at this level. There are signs though. Like the housing market bubble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917305807017779672)  2025-04-29T19:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VictorishB123 @CCantonii @SpencerHakimian I think you are misinterpreting my statement immensely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917306022781141015)  2025-04-29T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Right thats what I just explained. Now that youre on the same page Im saying the Fed shouldnt do this and has overdone it since [----]. I think you are conflating a political bias whereas all Im saying is I think QE is become a huge crutch for years that shouldnt be. It is too much influence regardless of who the political party is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917307764944105706)  2025-04-29T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@stanlikesbikes @Mr_Derivatives The lender to Coreweave Blackstone ๐Ÿคญ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917386382391271863)  2025-04-30T01:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Futes freakin ahead of GDP estimate release. PS I dont think first Q1 estimate is negative ๐Ÿ˜ณ $V earnings indicate strong Q1 consumption. Increased imports hurts but deflator increase not awful. We will see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917418975669149966)  2025-04-30T03:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AmericanPie2876 @Mr_Derivatives Very true. Good question then ๐Ÿค” I think the market move beforehand was right especially with consumer resilience on $V call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917421023517106659)  2025-04-30T03:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$AMZN announces investments in rural towns for last mile delivery creating upwards of [------] new jobs It should be noted 2023-2024 saw record government job growth while revisions removed over [------] private jobs and growth severely lagged. August [----] saw the first negative private job growth since pandemic. Private job growth drives sustainable economic growth while public job growth comes at an enormous cost when running such large deficits. Would like to see more of this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1917685056581099692)  2025-04-30T20:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lets start with the most direct line to banks. Asset Backed Finance. The fastest growing form is Consumer. It involves purchasing debt portfolios from banks They then take the debt and use the obligations as collateral to borrow to buy even more to juice yield Sound familiar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1918134214320636020)  2025-05-02T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Examples are auto loans credit card receivables (just straight up credit card debt) and non-performing residential mortgages. First they often target high yielding subprime auto loans and they are at their highest delinquency rate ever. Over 6.5% are 60+ days late"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1918134221270405562)  2025-05-02T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Posting without knowing sizing of sources At this point I wouldnt be surprised if youre one of the dozen reports as if your $70mm hedge fund can move markets only buying ETFs ๐Ÿคฃ Delusions of grandeur. Besides shadow banks and PC have created a far greater issue by undermining risk limits over the years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1918320044196675614)  2025-05-02T15:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpencerHakimian Huh India offers zero-for-zero tariffs on both auto parts and steel. Meanwhile Spencer is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1919404480262471935)  2025-05-05T14:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@kevinfeldman @SpencerHakimian Where has price fixing been actually proposed You know Yellen played a massive role in yield curve inversion by artificially fixing the price by issuing fewer [--] yr and front loading the curve. Last admin with Fed worked diligently to do exactly what you are against no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1919431431354286119)  2025-05-05T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"While privates are crowded with untalented managers and mega firms there are very good firms out there that do great. That being said just going to throw this out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1919894093477421128)  2025-05-06T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I think social capital is going to start an interval fund in the upcoming weeks. Sell existing holdings to fund and cash out existing LPs and GP I have [--] facts to back this up just a hunch based on the behavior of Chamath out of nowhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1919894094920257699)  2025-05-06T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IntellectWander @zerohedge True except search is lion share of rev and earnings. Cloud growing. Waymo/robotics early and still negative earnings. AI is competitive. If search drops those multiples elsewhere will need to skyrocket. Think -5% pretty fair all things considered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920135999276937267)  2025-05-07T15:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Opportunistic drawdown funds with conservative underwriting do have a golden opportunity. Its where Ive been adding exposure past [--] months. Crown jewel assets on balance sheets will increasing be used with bankruptcy-remote structures with low to mid teens interest rates. Big opportunity indeed Not so much for all the poorly underwritten loans out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920143006633504995)  2025-05-07T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Silver lining in Private Credit- Opportunistic drawdown funds with conservative underwriting do have a golden opportunity here despite stress. Its where Ive been adding exposure past [--] months while avoiding overcrowded direct lending. Crown jewel assets on balance sheets will increasingly be used with bankruptcy-remote structures to restructure debt with low to mid teens interest rates. Big opportunity indeed Not so much for the poorly underwritten loans out there due to overcrowding to get a bid. RIP. Private credit firms at Milken: Golden opportunity to deploy capital Also private credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920144506944455001)  2025-05-07T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales @VladTheInflator Meanwhile Consumer Asset Backed Finance in Private Credit is growing significantly. One of the things they are bundling SUBPRIME AUTO LOANS. The discount doesnt remotely compensate for default risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920531341180854758)  2025-05-08T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Oh my ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€ Buybacks help support valuations as there are fewer out standing shares which increases earnings per share. Typically companies will not buy back if they feel their shares are overvalued and buy when they feel shares are trading at a relative discount. BREAKING: US companies announced $233.8 billion in buybacks in April the second-highest amount since data began in [----]. This is a sharp reversal from the $39.1 billion announced in March the least since October [----]. Year-to-date repurchase announcements have reached a https://t.co/gZmygIiN0l BREAKING: US companies announced $233.8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920577614130880552)  2025-05-08T20:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DonMiami3 @VladTheInflator @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision @RESightsbyME Still think rangebound between 400-450 bps. Been my stance for awhile. Ill start to get concerned if it surpasses 4.6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920580479700423149)  2025-05-08T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Agree to disagree on why it dropped but thats ok. I think outsized increases in Core PCE in Dec-Feb caused outsized reaction after JPow fumbled coupled with an underestimation of projected neutral rate. Move in Sept was due to JPow raising neutral rate expectation [--] bps while also cutting too much too soon. Accelerated with deficit growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920605688952164840)  2025-05-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CapitalMktGuy @DonMiami3 @VladTheInflator @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision @RESightsbyME But its all subjective ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920605787744866614)  2025-05-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@bb_referee @TomProTraining @Nic_Wenzel_1 @SpencerHakimian Neither. 28% new customer acquisition. You realize its a sports book too right They cant control outcomes. Per CEO: "If not for customer-friendly sport outcomes in March we would be raising our fiscal year [----] revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1920667428071121025)  2025-05-09T02:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bigger piece is far more deterioration is in private credit which has taken over the junkiest part of junk bonds. The reason HY spreads havent blown out even more is due to the proliferation of private credit taking on that debt. Spreads in PC secondaries have blown the fuck out Also investors dont have an ability to sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921207230147285064)  2025-05-10T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@grok @Spergburger @VladTheInflator @grok how likely is it that the junkiest bonds of the past have since moved to using private credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921212821724856544)  2025-05-10T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"They arent unless youre looking at only QE infinity and ZIRP policy since [----]. I understand what youre saying from people expecting rates to drop to lock in the yield now. But thats why spreads matter to put yields in context with rest of bond market. 300-400 bps above Risk Free rate is historically not a good deal. Unless of course riskier bonds are becoming smaller part of the HY index. Higher quality in junk bonds has allowed spreads to remain in check. Meanwhile Private Credit secondaries going for 10-50% discounts to par. PS- up to date spread chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921222277435097260)  2025-05-10T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Spergburger @grok @VladTheInflator ๐Ÿ“  Central bank influence has reached new heights of insanity with the opportunity Theyve kicked the can too far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921226899428122815)  2025-05-10T15:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@vegasoul @daniel_perge @DividendDude_X Lol Im not directly comparing NFLX to Google. Its called an analogy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921320920833986751)  2025-05-10T21:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives $HOOD might start using $ETH to tokenize securities in Europe ๐Ÿค” Cant confirm obv but lines up. Amit had a post about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921355611549151245)  2025-05-11T00:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@markoinny Global liquidity bazookas keep firing Marko. $BTC is a liquidity proxy and currently global liquidity is on the rise. It only needs to see liquidity increasing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jonchimpo23/status/1921372617186984072)  2025-05-11T01:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@jonchimpo23 Avatar @jonchimpo23 Jon Chimpo

Jon Chimpo posts on X about inflation, fed, debt, tariffs the most. They currently have [---] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-----] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [------] -47%
  • [--] Month [-------] +321%
  • [--] Months [-------] -59%
  • [--] Year [-------] +5,339%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

  • [--] Week [--] -24%
  • [--] Month [---] +260%
  • [--] Months [---] +17%
  • [--] Year [-----] +3,238%

Followers: [---] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Week [---] +0.85%
  • [--] Month [---] +8.60%
  • [--] Months [---] +18%
  • [--] Year [---] +2,866%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence finance stocks countries cryptocurrencies technology brands currencies automotive brands celebrities travel destinations social networks

Social topic influence inflation #2139, fed #589, debt, tariffs #2032, balance sheet #1366, liquidity, money, china, investment, has been

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @mrderivatives @kobeissiletter @stealthqe4 @zerohedge @spencerhakimian @amitisinvesting @barchart @longrivercm @dgsommersmkts @nickwoolos @geigercapital @vladtheinflator @marketheretic @stimpyz1 @nateoncannabis @macroedgeres @rbernier22 @drewdamn87 @grok @peruvianbull

Top assets mentioned Vixco (VIX) Bitcoin (BTC) First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) CatCoin (CAT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock (CORZ) SPX6900 (SPX)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@Mr_Derivatives Last $AMD mention was golden ๐Ÿ™Œ"
X Link 2024-06-29T15:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Cuts might be bearish ST for $SPX but rate cuts should let it rip. In theory. I like that"
X Link 2024-09-11T03:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Would have said a possibility a couple weeks ago maybe but if I see more 50bps incoming being whispered ahead to signal its not a panic cut thats my bet. If whispers are slim probably [--] bps. Expecting $SPY to show the Path B switch to Path A move to bigger validation for B then ultimately Path A EOY. ๐ŸŽฏ. Your commentary is on point"
X Link 2024-09-13T15:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"After the worst fumble since Sanchezs butt fumble I think JPow might be a little scared to ignite inflation. Question is will he commit to further easing this year thats priced in. I think he signals yes but is non committal on magnitude of cuts. Now comes path B for $SPX for now"
X Link 2024-09-18T17:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Terminal Rate up [--] bps per JPow. Thats hawkish. Sucks for people thinking mortgage rates would be significantly lower today"
X Link 2024-09-19T14:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@WorldSpills @garyblack00 Not to mention they failed to show a $25k-$30k vehicle despite saying people can purchase a robotaxi for under $30k ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2024-10-11T22:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@WorldSpills @garyblack00 You mean that same platform with inductive charging ability to see everywhere at once and potential to improve safety by [--] times backed by the new Cortex supercluster Could it be that platform"
X Link 2024-10-12T02:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheBronxViking Been waiting for the Shrek call all morning. LFG"
X Link 2024-11-11T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@camkupka @Mr_Derivatives Thats why its a YOLO and ATM. Daily RSI for short swing trade at 20"
X Link 2024-11-13T19:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"First I didnt enter trade because hes not recommending to anyone. On todays trading the 14-period RSI was at [--] at the time. You can splice the [--] periods into a single day which is what I was referencing. But Im not here to pick hairs and Im not here for trades Im here for some humor and good vibes. You do you man Switch to [--] day chart and see for yourself ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2024-11-13T20:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Lol. Hope you enjoy your day FYI Im not bullish going into next year and sold most of an epic week. But thats me. Funny thing is wed probably agree on a lot. Always risks especially in a blow-off top event were experiencing now. But Im also no fortune teller. Relaaaaax"
X Link 2024-11-13T20:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@camkupka @Mr_Derivatives I dont let it go"
X Link 2024-11-15T17:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MartinShkreli @operationdanish Seriously. Sure at its core that BTC is a liquidity sponge but this chart completely misses is the potential catalyst from untapped liquidity pools of sovereign nations and large/mega cap corp treasuries (with a few exceptions)"
X Link 2024-11-28T03:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Would need even more IV and OTM calls imo. Think converts are hedging but also writing covered calls collecting 5-10%+ monthly on MSTR. MARA isnt there yet"
X Link 2024-11-29T15:23Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€"
X Link 2024-12-06T13:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Just wait until Monday when you find out how much BTC he purchased from share offering. Gotta accrete. Play the premium and look at it as a USD/BTC arbitrage via shelf offering. Only explanation I see especially the reaction on Thursday"
X Link 2024-12-06T19:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives"
X Link 2024-12-12T03:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives If they move more manufacturing of chips stateside ASML ๐Ÿš€. Lets go"
X Link 2024-12-13T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives What is this volatility you speak of Thankful for a VIX hedge. Youve been sayin it for awhile. Heres why"
X Link 2024-12-18T20:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Prob wont go long TLT until [--] yr goes over 5% [--] year higher. Debt problem and extreme TBill issuance will add supply on long end of curve. Terminal rate continues to rise. fwiw. When the mean reversion happens tho itll be quick and its tough to time. Like the thought"
X Link 2024-12-27T00:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ron172892111531 @Mr_Derivatives 1/ Yellen refinanced many of the 10-30 yr bonds in more [--] year debt. So not only must we refinance 10-30s coming due we must also refinance the excess TBill issuances into long term debt"
X Link 2024-12-27T12:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives"
X Link 2024-12-31T12:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting I was ok with accretive property from viewing as BTC/USD arbitrage despite typically being dilutive through share issuance. Near term thesis around an upward catalyst when he announces ATM is done. But then he says he will issue 30x more Thats too much"
X Link 2024-12-31T13:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Love Vix Crush Fridays"
X Link 2025-01-03T19:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives"
X Link 2025-01-05T21:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives WBA tho ๐Ÿค‘"
X Link 2025-01-10T13:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting Druck ๐Ÿ best in class in marco events and he has been right most of [----]. Choose him because of diversification and risk management on macro events"
X Link 2025-01-13T00:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Prob because PPI although lower YOY is continuing an upward march ๐Ÿ˜ฌ"
X Link 2025-01-14T14:50Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Jan and Feb [--] of the hottest inflation reports of the year. Especially considering services increases prices at start of the year. Kinda lines up with mid Feb growth scare thesis ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2025-01-15T23:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives @BSBG0731 Yup. Yellens fiscal backed him in a corner but he fumbled worse than Mark Sanchez in Jan [--] when he said I have one foot forward ready to cut. Now hes trapped. Raise and keep inflation in check but spur unemployment or cut and keep employment in check and spur inflation. ๐Ÿ˜ต๐Ÿ’ซ"
X Link 2025-01-18T14:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Well per the greatest quant work Ive seen in my lifetime isnt today just a red day ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ด you are here ๐ŸŸข"
X Link 2025-01-21T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Does the strengthening dollar help offset some of the tariff impact"
X Link 2025-02-02T22:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿ’ฏ Ill tell you tho its been so overcrowded in $VIX Been hitting the trends and bid AND ask were below intrinsic value for the spike and the drop for 2/19s. Not claiming to be a genius with the strategy but too many players"
X Link 2025-02-07T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@TraderBaba_ @amitisinvesting @KrisPatel99 Also- bond prices go up when yields fall. So there is potential for capital appreciation due to actives of higher than market coupon rate"
X Link 2025-03-05T15:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Better be able to evolve to something awesum or take it. Sticking with the old wont cut it and youre probably already behind. Lets see Kodak Blockbuster (who could have owned 49% of NFLX for $50mm) Who else"
X Link 2025-03-06T02:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@OraclumCapital Risk management is wise too depending on concentration/individual situation Of course my opinion isnt one size fits all either and is not financial advice. Appreciate the reminder of real risks and potential headwinds they are definitely valid. This is why fintwit is great"
X Link 2025-03-06T16:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TKLSubscribers Risk management and flexibility ๐Ÿ”‘ Keen navigating it isnt easy Does [----] hold again [--] times in [--] days 4th test here"
X Link 2025-03-06T17:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DickLeaky2 @MakeItCount4US @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Robotics advancement is the ๐Ÿ”‘ Apple has [-----] employees in China currently. There are [--] jobs here. With an upfront investment say you need [----] here. Thats still [----] more jobs here. Long term increases margins. You assume the same number of workers here are needed"
X Link 2025-03-08T02:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DickLeaky2 @MakeItCount4US @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Less workers = lower labor costs in US (not more expensive) = net positive new jobs in US"
X Link 2025-03-08T02:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MakeItCount4US @DickLeaky2 @SpencerHakimian @teroterotero Good point and definitely not assuming no robotics. China has incredible efficiency. Im speaking to future advancements. Im bullish on innovation being unlocked in US Productivity drives down prices. And fair trade could drive exports Deficits cost us more than goods"
X Link 2025-03-08T02:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Posting the word AI or mentioning AI on an earnings call expecting to see the stock price go up is so [----]. Way behind yet again ๐Ÿ˜‚"
X Link 2025-03-08T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@KrisPatel99 Rate cuts (monetary) and gov spending (fiscal) cause inflation Dual Mandate of Fed (monetary) is low unemployment and sustained inflation Cuts boost unemployment hikes curb inflation To keep 10yr down need stable inflation Rate cuts change [--] yr but not [--] yr rn. Would go up"
X Link 2025-03-09T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@KrisPatel99 Stagflation would emerge because it takes time for cuts to ripple through so low growth. On the flip inflation would go up and is only anchored to 2.5% not 2%. Thats JPow dilemma. Walking a literal tight rope"
X Link 2025-03-09T19:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@grok @AleSh09758566 @HellenistReborn @zerohedge @grok more specifically for financial sector leverage ratio"
X Link 2025-03-11T02:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Right because $WBA in SP500 has been amazing ๐Ÿ˜‚"
X Link 2025-03-11T22:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Ill be on the short side on $VIX soon. Ill tell ya that for free"
X Link 2025-03-12T00:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Ill have my ๐Ÿฟ X going to be lit either way๐Ÿ˜‚ If it surprises down: Growth really slowing (68% of GDP is consumer driven) Spark recession fears vs the rate cut NOW crowd celebrating If it surprises up: Resilience sparks inflation crowd vs [--] yr rises and rate cut crowd ๐Ÿคฏ"
X Link 2025-03-12T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Inflation came in lower than expected yet the [--] yr note is up Why [--]. We still havent fully quelled inflation concerns and March is first print that shows impact. Liquidity crunch offsets this [--]. We have new issue auction today. Its a sign demand is flat. Mixed signals"
X Link 2025-03-12T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Continued spending bills and aid packages that were paid for through TGA increases it. In fact from 2021-2024 it was actually QE because TGA and RRP offset QT by $417B"
X Link 2025-03-12T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives I mean Walmart cured cancer and Costco is the leader in AI They deserved to have insane multiples ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ But for real dont get me wrong I love $COST for their meats and TP but with 2.81% margin it was nuts. Still is I get theyre expanding but Im still not biting"
X Link 2025-03-12T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Yellen played a large role. Mainly she issued over 20% of our debt T Bills (under [--] yr) and [--] yr notes. By doing so she artificially kept [--] yr down and thats why yield curve was inverted so long. Low supply on [--] yr notes = artificially compressed rates"
X Link 2025-03-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@depinnomad @Geiger_Capital Bingo. Now Id prefer Fed do QE by increasing their balance sheet. If JPow is buying bonds it will increase demand and keep [--] yr tame while slower paced rate cuts fight a potential second wave. Just like banks Fed has big losses on debt from QE infinity (2008-2025)"
X Link 2025-03-12T22:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter UMich expectations have become politically polarized. Inflation: Dem: 6.5% GOP: 0.1% Consumer Confidence: Dem: [----] GOP: [----] It is important and notable both did show declines in consumer sentiment since we have a consumer driven economy however divergence is extreme"
X Link 2025-03-14T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@peruvian_bull The BTFB already closed to new loans on 3/11/24 All had a [--] yr maturity so its been repayments. Not taking away point on liquidity crunch domestically/air pocket. It should be $0 b/c [--] mo term for last loans. Sure repayment but its not a tappable source anymore"
X Link 2025-03-14T19:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull Asset Based Financing is a key contributor. Banks will package auto loans non performing loans risk swaps etc. PE is even lending against private equity ports to pay LPs faster. Proliferation of upcoming Private Credit ETFs is worrisome. Investors become the liquidity"
X Link 2025-03-14T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull So as Fed cuts their yield goes down. But to remain competitive and attract investors they do a few things. [--]. Leverage their leverage to loan 130-150% more than the capital they have [--]. Take higher risk loans to get more yield like buying subprime auto loan"
X Link 2025-03-14T21:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@thesamurai132 @peruvian_bull In [----] they packaged subprime loans with high quality loans (that werent as high of quality as perceived because underwriting doesnt account for a credit event) to have attractive yield"
X Link 2025-03-14T21:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dindunuffin0 @Redfisher1967 @Geiger_Capital Exactly. It has to be. We cant leverage 25% growth through adding to a deficit forever Supply and demand ultimately dictates bond yields. Larger deficits = more supply (debt issuance) = lower prices/higher yield We have $2T in private investment stimulus coming that costs $0"
X Link 2025-03-15T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Why in October after a [--] bps cut did I expect yields to rise Its not some lucky guess. Its not a complex model. You cant time it but it happens 10/10 times. Its the central tenet of investing Everything and I mean EVERYTHING reverts to the mean. @Mr_Derivatives The terminal rate rose again in last meeting which has an affect. Although a moving target that suggests 4.20% range on [--] yr. Also interesting as large refinances come up and after [--] years of mostly issuing TBills the Treasury has to issue longer dated flooding supply while @Mr_Derivatives The terminal rate rose again in last meeting"
X Link 2025-03-15T03:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I was hoping to avoid having to cut If we overshoot to deflation the growth scare likely intensifies Contrary to popular belief having to cut rates is not bullish for stocks near term Deflation is why July saw a growth scare in [----] 1/3 @TheLongInvest Understanding this is ๐Ÿ”‘ Disinflation (lower pace but +) was needed DEflation ((-) inflation) isnt as good as it sounds Nearly 70% of economy is consumer driven and sustainable inflation stunts growth Its why the dual mandate for inflation is 2% not 0% JPows behind now @TheLongInvest Understanding this is ๐Ÿ”‘ Disinflation (lower pace but +) was"
X Link 2025-03-15T18:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter We shouldnt be reliant on where rates Average coupon of existing debt is 3.3% Long dated is lower considering record TBill issuances so as old QE infinity era debt matures itll keep growing Paying down is the only way to change. We are a ways out from that right now tho"
X Link 2025-03-16T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zerohedge Belly of the curve is volatile Yield curve needs to steepen and normalize. [--] yr supply is high. [--] ways to steepen [--]. Need TBills to drop soon [--]. Belly rises long end rises Scenario [--] is critical"
X Link 2025-03-17T13:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Meanwhile Capital One and Discover surpassed 6% charge offs. Issuers are beginning to start lowering credit revolving limits leaving fewer resources to tap"
X Link 2025-03-18T23:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting The [--] on $COST cracks me up ๐Ÿ˜‚ They have a whopping 3% profit margin lol I do love shopping at Costco tho"
X Link 2025-03-19T00:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@amitisinvesting ๐Ÿ’ฏ If someone told me $COST would be sporting a [----] PEG while $NVDA was at a .81 PEG I would have thought it was a bad joke ๐Ÿ˜‚ Ill just but [---] hotdogs instead of a share because yes they are crazy delicious"
X Link 2025-03-19T02:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter @Kalshi People forget the long and variable lags. It is amplified when things like the RRP and TGA offset the entire QT by over $417B. Now its years of QT compounded into this year. Meanwhile dont forget Sept-Dec [----] cuts havent full rippled through the economy yet"
X Link 2025-03-19T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"After digesting Fed minutes and policy change important note: The Fed tapered QT from $25B/month to $5B/mo. The Fed has [--] levers- Balance sheet- buying treasuries (QE) or letting them roll off (QT)- long term yields Fed Funds Rate cuts- short term yields This move provides support to the [--] yr staying in the 400-450 range for now. This is precisely why the long end moved in greater magnitude after JPow announced with yields flipping from up on the day to down"
X Link 2025-03-20T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CryptoDavide33 @dgsommersmkts The bet lies in if they actually get deficit down and pay down some debt Kicks the can sure but things seriously break at [---] bps + [--] yr. Only a bandaid to ladder out concentration Going to big QE is bad can only push so far before causing what they are trying to avoid"
X Link 2025-03-20T19:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CryptoDavide33 @dgsommersmkts Depends on whether you think Bessent is trying to do what he says over time. Im optimistic while inspecting along the way. Doesnt mean Im bullish near term by any means but at this point Id rather be viewed as naive while hoping for the best and planning for the worst"
X Link 2025-03-20T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@marian150819 @peruvian_bull True. Stability. But worth it at the cost of 263% of GDP in debt"
X Link 2025-03-24T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow"
X Link 2025-03-24T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Tariffs are definitely the key for initial move. However under the surface some good results for GDP estimates from SP Global @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP"
X Link 2025-03-24T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Tariffs are definitely the key for initial move. However under the surface some good results for GDP estimates from SP Global US economy is primarily a services economy so expansion is promising. Services PMI [----] vs expectation of [----]. Over [--] is expansionary. @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global Services PMI surprised on the upside SP Global Manufacturing PMI contracted supporting lower inflation All in all they suggest 1.5-1.9% GDP growth Q1. Slowing but not negative like ATL Fed GDPNow @amitisinvesting Also and huge for extra morning move up- SP Global"
X Link 2025-03-24T15:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@PaulAllenCFA SP Global Services PMI a big surprise on upside supports expansion and these trades for sure. Meanwhile manufacturing is back to contraction helping somewhat defend against inflationary pressure"
X Link 2025-03-24T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Do you think a need to deleverage some has had an affect too A lot of hedge funds got stopped out last week"
X Link 2025-03-24T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA Keeping it simple here. MACD crossover and curl up โœ… RSI right around [--] Need to turn the 200SMA into support from resistance Test tomorrow seems likely ๐Ÿ‘€"
X Link 2025-03-24T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives CB Consumer Confidence up tomorrow mornin"
X Link 2025-03-25T00:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@007ofWallSt @Barchart They cant pivot. Truly in a corner Hiking rates ultimately only way they get inflation down. But they have 263% of GDP in debt so you get in default risk- long end yields Cutting rates ignites significant inflation risk- long end yields"
X Link 2025-03-27T02:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis If you double our debt for example how can you keep the amount of buying needed going Just look at what happened to the [--] yr Bunds yield when they announced more spending. ๐Ÿš€"
X Link 2025-03-29T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis You are looking at nominal ignoring supply outpacing demand. Looking at [--] year to prove a point is short sighted. And yes China ownership has been falling. Japan has been slower. Feel free to fact check these numbers in below context. Spending jump began [----] hence EOY 2019"
X Link 2025-03-30T00:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis UST Debt EOY [----] $22.72T vs 2025- $36.22T % Change +59.3% Foreign Holders of UST EOY [----] $6.78T vs 2025- $8.53T % Change +25.8% China EOY [----] $1.104T vs [----] $760.8B % Change (31%) Japan [----] $1.15T vs 2025- 1.079T % Change- (6%)"
X Link 2025-03-30T00:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Wrong how UST Debt EOY [----] $22.72T vs 2025- $36.22T % Change +59.3% Foreign Holders of UST EOY [----] $6.78T vs 2025- $8.53T % Change +25.8% China EOY [----] $1.104T vs 2025- $760.8B % Change (31%) Japan [----] $1.15T vs 2025- 1.079T % Change (6%)"
X Link 2025-03-30T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Do you understand supply and demand What happens when supply outpaces demand Prices go down which for bonds mean yields go up. In my view continuing to run a higher deficit makes long end go up regardless of fed rate cuts. Of course higher rates arent better"
X Link 2025-03-30T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Somewhat. I am saying that there is a dangerous line continuing to run such large deficits that will eventually be crossed Remove predictive and acknowledge as a risk. Change will result to could result. Extent of that risk is debatable but the risk itself isnt nonsense"
X Link 2025-03-30T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"As for better in no defined context again not prediciting. We have gotten to a point where asset prices must reflect ultra low rates as everything from Cap rates in CRE mortgage rates stock valuation ranges and more are correlated to the [--] yr. Sep [----] prime example as [--] yr detached from Fed cuts. Its why he tapered instead"
X Link 2025-03-30T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis TBD. 300-325bps would support valuayions where they are. But a lot has to be sorted to get to accurate terminal rate You might take this as a cop out but if rates on [--] yr go above [---] bps then things begin to crack imo. More about establishing a resistance for me"
X Link 2025-03-30T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis And the TDB revolves highly around replacing spending in GDP and timing. Since US GDP is calculated as consumer spending + direct investment + gov spending (excluding ssi healthcare etc) + (Exports-Imports) it is difficult to predict out a long ways if GS goes down"
X Link 2025-03-30T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis Beyond that I will say that theories of causing a recession solely to spur a safety trade to lower rates in order to roll debt is dumb. That fixes absolutely nothing. I do not support those who claim that so Id venture to guess thats another thing we can agree on"
X Link 2025-03-30T16:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Stimpyz1 @Geiger_Capital @nateoncannabis I will also say that the risk I claim COULD be overstated And theoretically demand COULD continue to support a growing deficit. The elephant in the room to me lies in how the yield curve steepens. Neither way guarantees the desired outcome"
X Link 2025-03-30T16:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Great read David. I agree. The deficit never reverted back to the mean (which was unsustainable as it was) accelerating the concentration of inevitable supply risk and QE infinity As they say bonds are more logical than stocks"
X Link 2025-03-30T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Decoupling of traditional correlation between equities and gold last year exposes the polarization of opinion much as weve seen on UMich surveys Conversely bonds sold off after cuts. Now the stalling of the safety trade shifting to gold further exposes supply/default risk"
X Link 2025-03-30T19:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Thinking out loud but Im not going on a limb expecting a volatile week. The equity market is more emotional than the Notebook right now. Not much you can do about that. Meanwhile gold is up to $3140. Shes done me wrong many times but GDX has finally begun to revert to its historical gap this year vs gold valuations. Forward P/E sub [--] understated.my only leveraged play in long port Both need to consolidate soonish and if that happens or GDX drops with equities ๐ŸŽฏ But dont think this week or next and solid fundies give support so tradable this week"
X Link 2025-03-31T03:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Somehow HY spreads continue to be historically narrow which is odd Pricing in low default risk although they have been widening but not by much historically speaking"
X Link 2025-04-01T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@amitisinvesting The last mile of inflation is the trickiest. Expansive QE on balance sheet in [----] fed to inflation and inflated asset valuations. His massive MBS purchasings been a key driver in keeping housing cost high Im not so sure his legacy is solidified regardless of tariffs"
X Link 2025-04-01T15:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"With continued down estimates on GDP its important to understand the components. While calculating and tracking are massive undertakings the equation itself is simple and easy to understand. Heres the calc: Real GDP = Consumer Spending (C) + Investment (I) + Gov Spending (G) + Exports - Imports (NX) - Inflation ๐Ÿงต"
X Link 2025-04-01T17:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Meanwhile consumer loan asset-based finance private credit funds keep popping up more and more. They are bundling Auto loans and credit card receivables"
X Link 2025-04-02T00:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@813JAFERD @SpencerHakimian That is the ultimate key if fair trade is ultimately negotiated with fewer export barriers"
X Link 2025-04-03T01:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Youre not going to like this buuuuut GDX with a massive bounce after being dragged with equities ๐Ÿ‘€"
X Link 2025-04-03T14:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Got it. So ballooning asset prices offsetting any decline in GDP with spending and creating job growth through expanding government is the way. Inflation comes in waves. Ever heard of long and variable lags of monetary policy Your assumptions show your age The $JPM stock pick you made a few weeks ago was ๐Ÿ”ฅ"
X Link 2025-04-03T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter More deed in lieu of foreclosure deals coming through with syndicators buying for note Meanwhile private credit is gobbling up auto credit card and non performing residential at a faster pace Are CRE syndicators and ABF Private Credit bailing them out with investor funds"
X Link 2025-04-04T00:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter And private credit is packaging them with auto loans at an alarming pace transferring risk to investors. Asset based consumer finance is growing fast. They are providing liquidity that shouldnt be there through unsuspecting investors"
X Link 2025-04-04T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives @JusBlaze___ I need to find a Delorean and short Black Monday"
X Link 2025-04-04T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Interesting chart from GS. Asset valuations havre inflated just like goods have as a result of irresponsible fiscal spending. Earnings guidance will be front and center this quarter as there is no buffer for downward revisions. Disclaimer: I am not a perma bear. I dont like losing money but being out of the market can be the riskiest move in a long portfolio. Things can rapidly evolve (especially right now) so you cant trade on emotion or a single chart"
X Link 2025-04-05T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives ๐Ÿคฏ Had to check myself. Ok so if I could travel back in time Id short the market Friday prior AND short the VIX at close on Black Monday PS I โค TOS"
X Link 2025-04-05T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian Based on the rest of his comments its pretty clear when he said savings accounts he was referencing RETIREMENT savings accounts which means saving for retirement thru 401ks IRAs etc and not implying a bank savings account"
X Link 2025-04-06T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Makes sense since valuations are so cheap now (Sarcastic font) This is when diversification matters"
X Link 2025-04-06T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@SpencerHakimian Got it. So only unbiased views while calling a bunch of people clowns and retardio while mocking autism. Nice The emotional penguin tariff tantrum shows it"
X Link 2025-04-06T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian Thinking anyone who is trying to have a conversation on a bigger picture doesnt understand basic retirement plans is incredibly ignorant"
X Link 2025-04-06T18:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@RealDannyB @CelticsBeam @SpencerHakimian You literally proved my point for me on diversification. Thanks IRAs also consist of mutual funds stocks bonds CDs and ETFs"
X Link 2025-04-06T19:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Just for hedge fund margin calls then boing boing (finally)"
X Link 2025-04-07T02:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Ackmans rep truly peaked the day before he mocked Buffet ๐Ÿ˜‚"
X Link 2025-04-07T03:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@RuralDad @wallstreetkid87 @JPATrades"
X Link 2025-04-07T21:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Futures up big again. So far the capitulation that appeared Sunday evening is holding. Headwinds: Wednesday: Reaction to tariffs going live. I feel they stay because the ultimate goal is deals. Friday: JPM earnings before open. Dimons comments will be telling as many rely on his outlooks for the economy"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This is a massive move. [--] yr swaps on SOFR are based on long run expected Fed Funds rate uh guys. https://t.co/30HcaxFHt7 uh guys. https://t.co/30HcaxFHt7"
X Link 2025-04-08T20:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This looks most likely to be a liquidity crunch acceleration"
X Link 2025-04-08T20:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@zerohedge Bingo Anyone wondering why Ken Griffin is being so vocal Or why Steve Cohen and Point72 said severe crash"
X Link 2025-04-09T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"What could happen from the treasury carry trade being forced to unwind Major implications: [--]. Massive selling pressure in treasuries [--]. Liquidity crunch and margin calls potentially freezing repo"
X Link 2025-04-09T04:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Will_DeCotiis @SpencerHakimian Yes Fed most definitely if forced to step in. Its bigger though. Began with domestic treasury carry trade imo with a cascade. Dollar popped first not yen running next will be euro but ultimately dollar up up up"
X Link 2025-04-09T05:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ollieclinch I know you probably dont want to hear this but nothing. IV is at an extreme and if you are caught on the wrong side it will not end well because of the high premiums"
X Link 2025-04-09T06:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"If anyone wants to see how arbitrage trades blow up look no further than LTCM (Long Term Capital Management). Arbitrage by definition is a risk free trade but nothing is risk free and crowding is the #1 enemy"
X Link 2025-04-09T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"LTCM was a hedge fund with Nobel peace prize winners many of which we use for calculations in options and rates. Namely Scholes of the Black Scholes formula and Merton who created the Merton model for credit default measurements"
X Link 2025-04-09T12:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KobeissiLetter New pools of liquidity changes A LOT even with in the midst of a liquidity crunch"
X Link 2025-04-09T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Looks like the PPT and Fed may have swooped to provide support for the auction. Surprised but its potentially good news. Eagerly awaiting FOMC although they may remain mum on the subject"
X Link 2025-04-09T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Remember Real GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov Spending (excluding benefits like SSI) + (Exports - Imports) - Inflation deflator My guess- Q1- Consumption flat investment up A LOT spend up and a big trade deficit from big imports which is a net negative GDP"
X Link 2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"With the inflation piece being lower for the quarter than Q1 [----] this leads me to expect 0-0.5%. Is the economy slowing Yes. Thats to be expected as we trim government spending spend. Its literally part of the equation so it must be offset"
X Link 2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"To offset the loss in GDP deals will focus on driving exports and investment. I do not see [--] back to back quarters of negative GDP at this point and the components of GDP are being reworked to cut government spending without crashing the economy"
X Link 2025-04-10T13:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AsianWinky @KobeissiLetter Yes I meant that decision. Agree- Scott Bessent is the most deft Treasury Sec we have had in decades His understanding of macro is such a positive for the US"
X Link 2025-04-10T16:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BotheWan [--]. Government stimulus and bail out- Without broad investment and deficit cuts this would be ultimately counterproductive to goal of lowering deficit. I do not think we are at this point"
X Link 2025-04-10T17:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BotheWan [--]. Do nothing- Default risk increases in credit markets like credit cards auto FHA mortgages CRE loans and mainly Private Credit face significant headwinds and perhaps crack more/defaults rise"
X Link 2025-04-10T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BotheWan To note- high yield bond spread to treasuries has been rising which shows increased default risk but have not fully blown out to be a true signal yet. This is not a collapse but a sign something needs to happen and it will probably be the Fed"
X Link 2025-04-10T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@PeterGazdik @KeenHu1 @zerohedge SOFR swaps spreads are cooked. IMO JPow is behind. Has been for [--] years. TGA and RRP offset all the QT until now as we face a liquidity crunch thats been coiling for over [--] years"
X Link 2025-04-10T22:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@grok @KeenHu1 @PeterGazdik @zerohedge @grok interesting you mention RRP as a viable response given current conditions. It peaked after COVID and has been nearly drained since Q1 [----] right"
X Link 2025-04-10T23:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JetLife_DSA_522 @amitisinvesting Thank man. Things werent making sense until then. All in all we are in a significant liquidity crunch rn"
X Link 2025-04-11T01:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts @KobeissiLetter Im afraid its a bad position the Fed is in David. There is a 20-100x levered treasury carry trade that is about $1.5T or 2x all of Chinas bonds. I saw yields spike 10bps in seconds. If we hit a feedback loop then they will be forced to step in but not with rate cuts"
X Link 2025-04-11T02:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts Woof. Deed in lieu of foreclosure sales definitely on the rise. Itll hide foreclosures and this is where the new 90%+ LTVs are emerging from. Banks kicking the can extending the loan. Meanwhile investors who were in this sadly are seeing a TOTAL loss"
X Link 2025-04-11T12:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Not unexpectly I feel this confirms China selling is likely the spark. With swap spreads nosediving the liquidity crunch clearly is continuing. Why is someone stepping in though It could be because there is an expectation that Fed is stepping in soon. Another possibility is reworking capital requirements for banks to step in. Or a combo of both were the buyers. Hard to speculate but someone is either trying to get ahead of a Fed bail out/the PPT getting liquidity or placing a large bet. Im dont think its a flight to safety though. It's not just the basis trade today https://t.co/Ye2FPy5KhI"
X Link 2025-04-11T17:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"I think the Fed steps in before anything truly breaks. But demand to buy can only go so far so getting back below 4% on [--] yr is unlikely. Over 5% and it ripples into many assets. All speculation but I feel China selling sparked the trade putting the hedge funds on the wrong side of the trade. There is clear evidence (SOFR/UST swap spreads nosediving) of a large liquidity crunch. How it breaks is if there is a feedback loop of margin calls on the hedge funds. This trade wont directly affect stocks atm as its arbitrage of cash treasuries and treasury futures"
X Link 2025-04-11T17:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"It has to an extent already. Like higher mortgage rates this week. And the question is if its a temporary liquidity crunch which is my base case. If no intervention from the Fed an extreme scenario (not prediction and not there) is the credit freeze ripples into many aspects. Inability to get new credit. Credit card limits being cut in half and getting closed. Massive stress on commercial real estate recovery. Lower stock valuation multiples. But someone (Likely the Fed) will step in because the economy cant go through another tightening cycle. And there is a sliver of chance that there is"
X Link 2025-04-11T17:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dgsommersmkts Im watching CNBC talk about how the Fed doesnt actually need to do create a new facility because we have facilities like the repo in place. Have they looked at the repo chart the past [--] years ๐Ÿ˜‚"
X Link 2025-04-11T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@amitisinvesting @NewtonianRN ๐ŸŽฏ Only thing Id add is if Fed goes QE through growing balance sheet thats how they could influence long end of curve more-so although it comes at a cost Although deficit and inflation will ultimately determine range. Appreciate your commentary man"
X Link 2025-04-14T02:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CryptoDavide33 @KobeissiLetter ๐Ÿ’ฏ totally agree. Held to maturity holdings have large material losses Been seeing so many Asset-Based Finance Consumer Private Credit funds emerging bundling cc auto debt and residential mortgage mortgage to free up capital requirements Obv I wouldnt touch those funds"
X Link 2025-04-14T19:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SpencerHakimian Lol. Meanwhile Gov spend fuels more and more GDP growth while interest expense is parabolic Wealth gap is at extremes. Maybe since you come from wealth are young and get to pay capital gains rates on most of your income with carried interest loophole it skews your view"
X Link 2025-04-14T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Very true hedge funds closer to 1-1.5%ish and 10-15%ish probably good call out. Regardless this is not remotely what Portfolio Managers earn. They never earn profit carry. PMs closer to .65% and dropping as actively managed ETFs further squeeze out SMAs and mutual funds"
X Link 2025-04-14T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@sugarbets_ @SpencerHakimian Its actually the growing annual interest expense on treasury debt due to insane gov spending. As a % of GDP the only other instance we saw massive waves of inflation. [----] saw an entirely new standard of spending which has propped GDP as its literally part of the equation"
X Link 2025-04-14T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SpencerHakimian And hedge funds have no role being on the wrong sides of trades Lol"
X Link 2025-04-15T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@amitisinvesting @zerohedge So true Cant cut either. Trapped. Compared to US debt issue: Debt to GDP- 2.15x more (263% vs 122%) BOJ balance sheet 3.44x more (43% vs. 12.5%) Currently in first wave of inflation like [----] in US Bad spot"
X Link 2025-04-15T03:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@steve2bacon Frfr. Have you seen anything besides the filing from NVDA of the source escalating to outright ban Seems like its still licensing which was already in place just moved up It doesnt matter to me Biden wrote it or Trump expedited just trying to sift through the noiiiiise"
X Link 2025-04-16T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"The problem is reporting requirements hide the insane risk taking. They pay capital gains rates on profit share even though it wasnt their money it should be treated as income. Who else gets to pay lower taxes on compensation"
X Link 2025-04-16T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@zerohedge RIP hedgies. Hedge Fund is an oxymoron"
X Link 2025-04-17T01:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@HeidingOut Youre spot on. I was against cuts last year. Literally no reason to like youve said. Now liquidity is gone and growth is slowing. Longer he waits the more the printer will have to be used and the balance sheet will explode even more"
X Link 2025-04-18T13:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@VladTheInflator Question- would you rather he wait and potentially be forced to issue massive QE and inflate the balance sheet again OR would you rather do a rate cut. Liquidity is gone (SOFR hellooooo ๐Ÿ‘€). Growth slowing QE is far more inflationary with wider long and variable lags"
X Link 2025-04-18T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"There are ways to get liquidity in private equity via secondary offerings (like they did in [----] for different reasons). Valuing is not impossible hard with revenue EBITDA or CRE with cap rates. There is a potential issue of smoothed appraisals and lack of deals affecting multiples but secondaries are important to mention usually 10-20% discount to NAV. Most hedge funds are semi liquid. They are likely lending on NAVs of PE rather than selling as the interest is a lot less than 10-20% discount. The bigger issue is the $9B of funding. The endowment cant handle that long term regardless of"
X Link 2025-04-20T00:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Yes you are acknowledging secondaries. There are also NAV loans. There are a lot of places to get liquidity on the illiquid portfolio. Secondaries demand is strong. The bigger and really only legitimate reason at this point is the endowments restrictions/spending limits they have not liquidity/investment strategy being the main culprit as you imply its a secondary issue"
X Link 2025-04-20T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"True except that was [---] years ago. To start beginning in [----] the Fed went to new great lengths of magnitude never seen. Increasing the balance sheet in multiples higher than ever before buying UST and MBS creates additional artificial demand therefore suppressed long yields significantly no It seems like its not currently as Fed is in QT losing control of the long end as it should be but not during times of QE and balance sheet growth"
X Link 2025-04-20T15:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"True however I would consider the long and variable lags of monetary policy particularly with QE. The balance sheet increased 10x. A clear example is housing where QE not only enabled the [--] yr suppression by creating artificial demand (although Yellen played a massive role limiting supply through excess tbill issuance) but purchasing 30% of MBS outstanding too. Yields should have been much higher then and it distorts it. This further influences a greater long and variable lag as seen in home values increasing far beyond free markets would have dictated. I am not sure you can justify how"
X Link 2025-04-20T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Correct if solely focusing on FFR while discounting any logical effect of QE/balance sheet impacts with the long end of the curve. It is hard to believe free markets alone would have kept the inversion in place for so long had the Fed not created significant amounts of demand out of thin air"
X Link 2025-04-20T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@WealthyReadings @StockSavvyShay @finchat_io The export control was only pushed up a month in time. Its been known for the H20 since Jan [--] [----]. Perhaps NVDA should stop spending so much trying to undermine years of attempted export controls ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2025-04-21T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"It would be prudent if Government Spending wasnt directly calculated in the GDP equation. I feel this has allowed spending to make up any gaps for political gain while prolonging inevitable parts of the business cycle. GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov spend (excluding benefits) + Exports - Imports"
X Link 2025-04-26T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"This is why driving private investment and trade deficits down is such a focus. I continue to focus on the outcome as there are so many possibilities but this must be done to cut government spending. So far $7T investment committed with some long term commitments. Have to keep it going ๐Ÿ˜ฌ @SpencerHakimian It would be prudent if Government Spending wasnt directly calculated in the GDP equation. I feel this has allowed spending to make up any gaps for political gain while prolonging inevitable parts of the business cycle. GDP = Consumption + Investment + Gov spend (excluding @SpencerHakimian It"
X Link 2025-04-26T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Based on current global M2 lag Im expecting first stop to $150-$160k on BTC in [--] days. Since the break of upper Bollinger Band a short consolidation period then next legs higher would be choice. If BTCs price gets there sooner I see it as meaning only one thing"
X Link 2025-04-26T22:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ekwufinance @KobeissiLetter Bingo. It never stopped was just taking off its rails briefly thanks to over leveraged hedge funds on the wrong side of trades with a liquidity crunch"
X Link 2025-04-26T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Private credit has become a major player in leveraged buyout (LBO) PE. This is when a Private Equity firm will buy a company using debt most being 60-65% debt vs 40-35% equity (investor dollars). Banks have covenants and are more equipped to weather the storm and extend or take over. Proliferating in [----] Private credit became a major player in leveraged buyout PE. They offered less underwriting and 75-90% leverage at times. Deals banks were not doing. This 40% number is accurate for private credit LBO but likely overstates the risks for banks (who are also packaging and selling to private"
X Link 2025-04-27T00:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@timreward10101 @SpencerHakimian ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2025-04-27T12:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@timreward10101 @SpencerHakimian Im not trying to imply this is solely one persons fault. I am saying the problem created over years and years finally came to a head due to the factors you mentioned putting the US now in a spot where we may have reached a path of no return"
X Link 2025-04-27T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Many cite that the floating rate nature makes it a great investment in a rising rate environment The irony however is that it also makes the underlying investments prone to payment risk with increasing debt services Further when rates fall risk is increased through leverage or riskier loans to maintain a competitive yield"
X Link 2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"There are many types but here are the primary categories [--]. Direct Lending- 36-50% of private credit. This is lending aiding in leveraged buy outs (LBO). [--]. Asset Backed Finance- backed by pools of debt like mortgages credit cards or auto loans"
X Link 2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"3. Asset Based- usually backed by collateral like equipment or inventory [--]. Real Estate- used to finance or bridge commercial real estate [--]. Specialty Finance- Such as purchasing airplanes to lease out"
X Link 2025-04-27T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives $ETH becoming the $AMD of crypto. Going to have to start calling it Empty Treasure Hack"
X Link 2025-04-28T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$HOOD looking strong ahead of earnings. Lagging its momentum friend PLTR. Feel earnings will be another strong beat. They continue to innovate and as they navigate prediction markets a big opportunity ahead as they continue to gain ground in crypto"
X Link 2025-04-29T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@NickWoolos Why do you think there is an insane variance like Ive never seen between ATL Fed and NY Fed ATL was always over optimistic in contraction before. Now the opposite. Guess we will find out tomorrow anyway ha"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Cutting rates isnt QE. Asset purchasing is which is what I am referencing. As in buying $4.5T+ of treasuries and agency MBS from 2020-2021. That is the over reach of influence I am discussing. With both parties btw Balance sheet grew from $800B in [----] to a peak of $9T. There is a long and variable lag on inflationary effects. And we have no idea how this round has affected since its never been done at this level. There are signs though. Like the housing market bubble"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@VictorishB123 @CCantonii @SpencerHakimian I think you are misinterpreting my statement immensely"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Right thats what I just explained. Now that youre on the same page Im saying the Fed shouldnt do this and has overdone it since [----]. I think you are conflating a political bias whereas all Im saying is I think QE is become a huge crutch for years that shouldnt be. It is too much influence regardless of who the political party is"
X Link 2025-04-29T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@stanlikesbikes @Mr_Derivatives The lender to Coreweave Blackstone ๐Ÿคญ"
X Link 2025-04-30T01:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Futes freakin ahead of GDP estimate release. PS I dont think first Q1 estimate is negative ๐Ÿ˜ณ $V earnings indicate strong Q1 consumption. Increased imports hurts but deflator increase not awful. We will see"
X Link 2025-04-30T03:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AmericanPie2876 @Mr_Derivatives Very true. Good question then ๐Ÿค” I think the market move beforehand was right especially with consumer resilience on $V call"
X Link 2025-04-30T03:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$AMZN announces investments in rural towns for last mile delivery creating upwards of [------] new jobs It should be noted 2023-2024 saw record government job growth while revisions removed over [------] private jobs and growth severely lagged. August [----] saw the first negative private job growth since pandemic. Private job growth drives sustainable economic growth while public job growth comes at an enormous cost when running such large deficits. Would like to see more of this"
X Link 2025-04-30T20:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Lets start with the most direct line to banks. Asset Backed Finance. The fastest growing form is Consumer. It involves purchasing debt portfolios from banks They then take the debt and use the obligations as collateral to borrow to buy even more to juice yield Sound familiar"
X Link 2025-05-02T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Examples are auto loans credit card receivables (just straight up credit card debt) and non-performing residential mortgages. First they often target high yielding subprime auto loans and they are at their highest delinquency rate ever. Over 6.5% are 60+ days late"
X Link 2025-05-02T02:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Posting without knowing sizing of sources At this point I wouldnt be surprised if youre one of the dozen reports as if your $70mm hedge fund can move markets only buying ETFs ๐Ÿคฃ Delusions of grandeur. Besides shadow banks and PC have created a far greater issue by undermining risk limits over the years"
X Link 2025-05-02T15:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SpencerHakimian Huh India offers zero-for-zero tariffs on both auto parts and steel. Meanwhile Spencer is"
X Link 2025-05-05T14:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@kevinfeldman @SpencerHakimian Where has price fixing been actually proposed You know Yellen played a massive role in yield curve inversion by artificially fixing the price by issuing fewer [--] yr and front loading the curve. Last admin with Fed worked diligently to do exactly what you are against no"
X Link 2025-05-05T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"While privates are crowded with untalented managers and mega firms there are very good firms out there that do great. That being said just going to throw this out there"
X Link 2025-05-06T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"I think social capital is going to start an interval fund in the upcoming weeks. Sell existing holdings to fund and cash out existing LPs and GP I have [--] facts to back this up just a hunch based on the behavior of Chamath out of nowhere"
X Link 2025-05-06T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@IntellectWander @zerohedge True except search is lion share of rev and earnings. Cloud growing. Waymo/robotics early and still negative earnings. AI is competitive. If search drops those multiples elsewhere will need to skyrocket. Think -5% pretty fair all things considered"
X Link 2025-05-07T15:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Opportunistic drawdown funds with conservative underwriting do have a golden opportunity. Its where Ive been adding exposure past [--] months. Crown jewel assets on balance sheets will increasing be used with bankruptcy-remote structures with low to mid teens interest rates. Big opportunity indeed Not so much for all the poorly underwritten loans out there"
X Link 2025-05-07T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Silver lining in Private Credit- Opportunistic drawdown funds with conservative underwriting do have a golden opportunity here despite stress. Its where Ive been adding exposure past [--] months while avoiding overcrowded direct lending. Crown jewel assets on balance sheets will increasingly be used with bankruptcy-remote structures to restructure debt with low to mid teens interest rates. Big opportunity indeed Not so much for the poorly underwritten loans out there due to overcrowding to get a bid. RIP. Private credit firms at Milken: Golden opportunity to deploy capital Also private credit"
X Link 2025-05-07T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@unusual_whales @VladTheInflator Meanwhile Consumer Asset Backed Finance in Private Credit is growing significantly. One of the things they are bundling SUBPRIME AUTO LOANS. The discount doesnt remotely compensate for default risk"
X Link 2025-05-08T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Oh my ๐Ÿ‘€๐Ÿ‘€ Buybacks help support valuations as there are fewer out standing shares which increases earnings per share. Typically companies will not buy back if they feel their shares are overvalued and buy when they feel shares are trading at a relative discount. BREAKING: US companies announced $233.8 billion in buybacks in April the second-highest amount since data began in [----]. This is a sharp reversal from the $39.1 billion announced in March the least since October [----]. Year-to-date repurchase announcements have reached a https://t.co/gZmygIiN0l BREAKING: US companies announced $233.8"
X Link 2025-05-08T20:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DonMiami3 @VladTheInflator @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision @RESightsbyME Still think rangebound between 400-450 bps. Been my stance for awhile. Ill start to get concerned if it surpasses 4.6"
X Link 2025-05-08T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Agree to disagree on why it dropped but thats ok. I think outsized increases in Core PCE in Dec-Feb caused outsized reaction after JPow fumbled coupled with an underestimation of projected neutral rate. Move in Sept was due to JPow raising neutral rate expectation [--] bps while also cutting too much too soon. Accelerated with deficit growth"
X Link 2025-05-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CapitalMktGuy @DonMiami3 @VladTheInflator @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision @RESightsbyME But its all subjective ๐Ÿคทโ™‚"
X Link 2025-05-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@bb_referee @TomProTraining @Nic_Wenzel_1 @SpencerHakimian Neither. 28% new customer acquisition. You realize its a sports book too right They cant control outcomes. Per CEO: "If not for customer-friendly sport outcomes in March we would be raising our fiscal year [----] revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.""
X Link 2025-05-09T02:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Bigger piece is far more deterioration is in private credit which has taken over the junkiest part of junk bonds. The reason HY spreads havent blown out even more is due to the proliferation of private credit taking on that debt. Spreads in PC secondaries have blown the fuck out Also investors dont have an ability to sell"
X Link 2025-05-10T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@grok @Spergburger @VladTheInflator @grok how likely is it that the junkiest bonds of the past have since moved to using private credit"
X Link 2025-05-10T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"They arent unless youre looking at only QE infinity and ZIRP policy since [----]. I understand what youre saying from people expecting rates to drop to lock in the yield now. But thats why spreads matter to put yields in context with rest of bond market. 300-400 bps above Risk Free rate is historically not a good deal. Unless of course riskier bonds are becoming smaller part of the HY index. Higher quality in junk bonds has allowed spreads to remain in check. Meanwhile Private Credit secondaries going for 10-50% discounts to par. PS- up to date spread chart"
X Link 2025-05-10T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Spergburger @grok @VladTheInflator ๐Ÿ“  Central bank influence has reached new heights of insanity with the opportunity Theyve kicked the can too far"
X Link 2025-05-10T15:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@vegasoul @daniel_perge @DividendDude_X Lol Im not directly comparing NFLX to Google. Its called an analogy"
X Link 2025-05-10T21:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives $HOOD might start using $ETH to tokenize securities in Europe ๐Ÿค” Cant confirm obv but lines up. Amit had a post about it"
X Link 2025-05-11T00:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@markoinny Global liquidity bazookas keep firing Marko. $BTC is a liquidity proxy and currently global liquidity is on the rise. It only needs to see liquidity increasing"
X Link 2025-05-11T01:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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@jonchimpo23
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