#  @jasonfurman Jason Furman Jason Furman posts on X about inflation, gdp, fed, tariffs the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::279036722/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +441% - [--] Month [---------] -4% - [--] Months [----------] -19% - [--] Year [----------] +14% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::279036722/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +100% - [--] Month [---] +32% - [--] Months [---] +37% - [--] Year [---] -30% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::279036722/followers)  - [--] Week [-------] +0.66% - [--] Month [-------] +2% - [--] Months [-------] +6.10% - [--] Year [-------] +14% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::279036722/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #5819 [countries](/list/countries) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [us election](/list/us-election) [currencies](/list/currencies) [stocks](/list/stocks) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [musicians](/list/musicians) **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation) #117, [gdp](/topic/gdp) #44, [fed](/topic/fed) #183, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #137, [rates](/topic/rates), [investment](/topic/investment), [gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth), [core](/topic/core) #830, [fomc](/topic/fomc), [6 months](/topic/6-months) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@nytopinion](/creator/undefined) [@gregip](/creator/undefined) [@wsjopinion](/creator/undefined) [@justinwolfers](/creator/undefined) [@daviddesj](/creator/undefined) [@aesop_npv](/creator/undefined) [@michaelrstrain](/creator/undefined) [@nicktimiraos](/creator/undefined) [@mattyglesias](/creator/undefined) [@tylercowen](/creator/undefined) [@kausmickey](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@dr_gingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@goldmarkovchain](/creator/undefined) [@kathleenhays](/creator/undefined) [@ernietedeschi](/creator/undefined) [@marcgoldwein](/creator/undefined) [@johnhcochrane](/creator/undefined) [@rinsana](/creator/undefined) [@atabarrok](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Here are the full set of numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1895475273597940121) 2025-02-28T14:04Z 184.9K followers, [----] engagements "Investment in information processing equipment & software is 4% of GDP. But it was responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year. GDP excluding these categories grew at a 0.1% annual rate in H1" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1971995367202775284) 2025-09-27T17:48Z 184.8K followers, 120.6K engagements "The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.7% in September unchanged from the previous month. This is the median [--] measures. FWIW my own judgmental view is a smidge lower because some of this is transitory tariff inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1997052492002066756) 2025-12-05T21:16Z 184.7K followers, [----] engagements "@carney Lower net immigration should lower both breakeven job growth and GDP growth. So it helps solve one issue (why low job growth is not recessionary) but doesnt really resolve the disconnect Im trying to puzzle through" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2003497196826837480) 2025-12-23T16:05Z 185K followers, [----] engagements "Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina Russia Turkey Venezuela and Zimbabwe" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2010532384924442645) 2026-01-12T02:00Z 185.1K followers, 996.8K engagements "Inflation is moderating (but still above target) & consumer spending is booming according to PCE data for Oct & Nov released today. Core PCE annual rate: [--] month: 1.9% [--] months: 2.3% [--] months: 2.6% [--] months: 2.8%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2014371133588467801) 2026-01-22T16:14Z 185.2K followers, 13.5K engagements "The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.6% in November. Has hovered around there all year. Is the median of [--] measures (8 bases [--] periods all re-meaned to match PCE). FWIW that is about where my judgmental estimate would be too" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2014468009616707969) 2026-01-22T22:39Z 184.8K followers, [----] engagements "@Brad_Setser @davidshor @MattZeitlin I would also add once you control for inflation then it's not obvious why even import prices would matter. I believe some goods/services may be more salient than others but would rather just test that directly than the extremely indirectly link to exchange rates" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2016353720519242027) 2026-01-28T03:32Z 184.8K followers, [---] engagements "If you must forecast forecast a number or forecast a datebut never both. CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next [--] to [--] months https://t.co/yYKzS7NIOP https://t.co/HvA6Q7KgIc CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next [--] to [--] months https://t.co/yYKzS7NIOP" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022039220613992958) 2026-02-12T20:04Z 187.4K followers, 35.4K engagements "On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes it even stronger: participation up involuntary part-time down hours up wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved in the direction of GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021612898980683906) 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, 75K engagements "It looks like the economy has strong GDP growth momentum going into [----] potentially some additional demand & a stabilizing labor market . Of course that could all change because economies are unpredictable. But no need for rate cuts for now" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021612905892917633) 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "A few months ago the discourse was about whether or not AI was a bubble. Now it's shifted to whether or not we're about to enter a dramatically new era. Of course both could be true" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021957148817686821) 2026-02-12T14:38Z 187.4K followers, 22.5K engagements "After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics & tariffs. So we'll see" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022328947480965620) 2026-02-13T15:16Z 187.4K followers, 28.9K engagements "@DianeSwonk Absolutely tariffs have added a lot to inflation. And unless reversed they will keep the price level higher. But the inflation effect is going away as we settle into the higher level. And fading of transitory tariff inflation a reason to be optimistic about future inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022331489963393113) 2026-02-13T15:26Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "Two things to keep in mind: [--]. Trade restrictions hurt both the United States and Canada. [--]. Trade restrictions hurt Canada much much more. Exports to Canada are 1% of U.S. GDP Exports to the United States are 18% of Canadian GDP (Data for 2024) Exports to Canada are 1% of U.S. GDP Exports to the United States are 18% of Canadian GDP (Data for 2024)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1905731639352963142) 2025-03-28T21:20Z 187.4K followers, 87.7K engagements "@soumitrashukla9 No good faith. No attempt to listen and learn. No humility" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021426188800098433) 2026-02-11T03:28Z 187.4K followers, 140.4K engagements "The White House however still seems to be calling it "Chairman."" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019526323358556620) 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 63.4K engagements "I will be enthusiastically supporting faculty legislation to cap the number of A's at Harvard at 20% (plus a bit). The collective action problem that has driven grades higher & higher over time is increasingly problematic. I hope other institutions consider similar steps" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019856448457511422) 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187.4K followers, 632.8K engagements "The single worst interview I've ever done was with Jon Stewart. I normally try to be calm and level-headed but I basically lost it with him. And worry that I lost viewers/listeners too doing more to convince them that economists were obnoxious than that we had useful insights" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021395695081750874) 2026-02-11T01:27Z 187.4K followers, 1.5M engagements "@harryh I cant remember but from my perspective it got bad. I was both very frustrated with him (and the other guest) and mad at myself for how I handled it. But may not have been genuine fireworks. You can judge" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021398609309372419) 2026-02-11T01:39Z 187.4K followers, 96.7K engagements "A very rapid pace of wage growth too. Might worry about this being indicative of an overly hot/inflationary economy but the fact that both the ECI and Atlanta tracker are growing less suggests this may be more about composition" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021612904546501046) 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "@alecrogers1968 That's quite a memory wasn't that in 2008" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021668624545767880) 2026-02-11T19:32Z 187.4K followers, 30.7K engagements "Family says I dont live in the social media mainstream. But Ill show them by sharing this pop culture content. Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime opening dubbed to English https://t.co/2mwMQOGaN5 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime opening dubbed to English https://t.co/2mwMQOGaN5" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021932302746706349) 2026-02-12T13:00Z 187.4K followers, 40.7K engagements "Interesting piece by @uybpham about Kevin Warsh's time as a student in Harvard Law School. I learned a lot that hasn't been in any of the other profiles or pieces about Warsh. Classmates say Kevin Warsh gravitated toward finance early on at Harvard Law School. Now he is President Donald Trumps nominee to lead the Federal Reserve the nations central bank. @uybpham reports. https://t.co/5l5VYWDAgj Classmates say Kevin Warsh gravitated toward finance early on at Harvard Law School. Now he is President Donald Trumps nominee to lead the Federal Reserve the nations central bank. @uybpham reports." [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022021092433625420) 2026-02-12T18:52Z 187.4K followers, 36K engagements "In the late 1990s Alan Greenspan aggressively raised interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5%. Nevertheless inflation was still rising relatively rapidly (nearly 0.5pp/yr). And there was a productivity boom. I draw out the real lessons from Alan Greenspan for today in @ftopinion" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022050721919864867) 2026-02-12T20:50Z 187.4K followers, 14.2K engagements "Plus I would note that late 1990s productivity growth was in the 3-4% annual rate range. We're nowhere near that. At least not yet" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022050725631873369) 2026-02-12T20:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: [--] month: 3.3% [--] months: 2.5% [--] months: 2.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022320230354014323) 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Here are the full numbers. Sadly no data for October because of shutdown so can't compute [--] month changes" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022320231452917839) 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Core goods inflation was high as the tariffs were kicking in but has basically gone away and I don't think there is much reason to expect it back. If you wanted to make yourself nervous could focus on resurgence of core services does that reflect underlying inflation pressures" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022320232753254548) 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, 10.9K engagements "A nice account of how the tariff passthrough to inflation is more complicated and uncertain than you might think. And BTW the less passthrough to date the more you should be worried about delayed passthrough in the future. Ahead of January CPI release a key question is what are tariffs contribution to core inflation 🧵1/12 Ahead of January CPI release a key question is what are tariffs contribution to core inflation 🧵1/12" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022332481962438745) 2026-02-13T15:30Z 187.4K followers, 19K engagements "The CPI-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.1% in January. This is likely depressed a bit by BLS measurement issues during shutdown. My judgment still remains 2.5%. (Note I did the median of the 4-month [--] month and [--] month measures.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022440604005769568) 2026-02-13T22:39Z 187.4K followers, 10.3K engagements "Tomorrow's GDP report just got more suspenseful: the final Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast was 1.1% down from the 2.5% they had before. Is basically converged with the 1.0% that IHS Markit is expecting. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1651338866408980481) 2023-04-26T21:34Z 186.6K followers, 21.9K engagements "Every member of the FOMC thinks that at least some of the recent favorable inflation news was transitorily transitory. Specifically hitting their forecasts for core PCE inflation in [----] (which range from 3.5% to 4.2%) would require a step-up in inflation over the next months" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1704586038839296325) 2023-09-20T19:59Z 187.1K followers, 40.5K engagements "How the recovery has compared to CBO's pre-pandemic forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1761829743995789480) 2024-02-25T19:05Z 187.3K followers, 91.6K engagements "I wanted to respond to an issue my friend @econJaredB raised about my conclusion in my recent Foreign Affairs piece that real wages are below trend. My conclusion is VERY robust to just about every major wage measure and trend. I will expand & explain in this 🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1893682372312227918) 2025-02-23T15:20Z 187.4K followers, 111.2K engagements "Torn as to whether this is more dumb or more corrupt" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896257347732869330) 2025-03-02T17:52Z 187.4K followers, 684.6K engagements "President Trump has taken an extraordinary and dangerous step of firing two FTC Commissioners. This is a dramatic ratcheting up of the politicization of the agency--the opposite of the direction it should be going in" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1902117317850337709) 2025-03-18T21:58Z 186.6K followers, 275.4K engagements "I dont think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before. But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise. He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955046454147371326) 2025-08-11T23:19Z 187.4K followers, 497.6K engagements "Fertility rates are way below what the Social Security Trustees projected in both [----] and [----]. And yet they have barely updated their long-run forecast. What's the best argument for the plausibility of their forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1973130348012658925) 2025-09-30T20:58Z 187.3K followers, 199.5K engagements "I discuss the broader issues of Fed independence plus more nitty gritty on the current macro situation and Fed outlook with @Kathleen_Hays on Central Bank Central. Link in the next" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2011556594291745025) 2026-01-14T21:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements "The labor market is genuinely loose. Not scarily loose possibly stabilizing but in a position where it should continue to put downward pressure on inflation. Today we learned job openings fell and stand at [----] openings per unemployed" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019462665265893589) 2026-02-05T17:26Z 187.2K followers, 31K engagements "At the time most news accounts seem to have called the job "Chairman" although "Chairwoman" appeared sometimes too--in fact the NYT used both within weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019526319298466207) 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.1K followers, [----] engagements "The morning of Obama's announcement I got a call that she had changed her mind & wanted "Chair." I got to the speechwriters & they made the change shortly before the speech went on the prompter. (Although re-reading it they missed a few "chairman" oops.) https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/10/09/remarks-president-nominating-dr-janet-yellen-chair-board-governors-feder https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/10/09/remarks-president-nominating-dr-janet-yellen-chair-board-governors-feder" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019526320737149046) 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187K followers, [----] engagements "The rest of the world has been a bit inconsistent in adopting the new language and still is. The same news organizations--even the same articles--might have both "chairman" and "chair". But mostly it seems to be "chair" like elsewhere (e.g. department heads boards etc.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019526321647358132) 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 17.9K engagements "One place the current system fails--and it's not the only place--is honors. I'm on the Committee to recommend honors in the economics department. It's increasingly hard to distinguish excellence with so many A's. I believe that now even two A-'s makes you ineligible for Summa" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019856450734919835) 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187K followers, 12.3K engagements "It's unfair that a class that happens to have smarter students is penalized. But the current system is unfair too with huge variance in grading across classes and departments. I don't see any solution that doesn't involve some modicum of rough justice" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019856452400115862) 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187.2K followers, 55.5K engagements "A striking graph from @hilarysburns in the Boston Globe. And this is after what is likely favorable disparate treatment of men in the college admissions process (aka affirmative action). Should lead us to think harder about what can be done at earlier stages to narrow the gap" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2020142737496957198) 2026-02-07T14:28Z 187.3K followers, 27.8K engagements "The full story is a good read (but I believe paywalled). https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/01/30/metro/men-college-campus-enrollment-declines/s_campaign=sharetool_copypaste_view https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/01/30/metro/men-college-campus-enrollment-declines/s_campaign=sharetool_copypaste_view" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2020142739338203645) 2026-02-07T14:28Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements "@itaisher Of course it's not the best mechanism. The problem is I've talked to dozens of faculty/administrators and everyone has a different mechanism. And all completely different. So I'll try to push the proposal a bit but ultimately am OK with bandwagoning around benign dictatorship" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2020584743201558658) 2026-02-08T19:45Z 186.7K followers, [----] engagements "The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at about a 3% annual rate" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021343640488951819) 2026-02-10T22:00Z 187.4K followers, 11.7K engagements "The job growth happened despite further cuts in federal jobs. Private employment was up an impressive 172K" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021612900255760692) 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements "Note breakeven job growth is currently about 25-50K because of reduced net immigration & also more fully recovered participation. So job growth has slowed but the unemployment rate now seems to have stabilized after slowly and steadily increasing since mid-2023" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021612901308444797) 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements "When your rent goes up nominal GDP goes up but real GDP does not. When your salary goes down real GDP goes down (because it is identical to real GDI which goes down). When your rent goes up so does GDP. Same with your salary going down (provided this results in more spending by your boss). GDP isnt really a measure of the health of The Economy its a measure of the parts of The Economy that make rich people (that is the Epstein When your rent goes up so does GDP. Same with your salary going down (provided this results in more spending by your boss). GDP isnt really a measure of the health of" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021712220032282625) 2026-02-11T22:25Z 187.4K followers, 33.3K engagements "Glad to see this sensible re-tuning of Harris's tax policy. It makes sense to raise more revenue in a progressive manner but raising the capital gains rate into the 40s gets little incremental revenue (because people delay selling) relative to the costs. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-to-pare-back-bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-14c537b1 https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-to-pare-back-bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-14c537b1" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1831426667748979155) 2024-09-04T20:18Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Three questions for @superwuster: [--]. Is there a positive or negative externality to alcohol consumption at sporting events [--]. Does the price of alcohol at sporting affect the demand for tickets [--]. What happens to prices when demand changes and supply is inelastic This is just dumb and shows a failure to understand buyers. Assuming fans have a fixed total budget is a fallacy. If the stadium could charge more for tickets it would. This is just dumb and shows a failure to understand buyers. Assuming fans have a fixed total budget is a fallacy. If the stadium could charge more for tickets it would" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1989696993547952281) 2025-11-15T14:08Z 187.4K followers, 407.9K engagements "The untold() story of how we (mostly) got a Fed chair. And why we (mostly) no longer have a Fed chairman. Preview: President Obama's nomination remarks where he says he is nominating Janet Yellen as "Chair" to replace "Chairman" Bernanke after her service as "Vice Chairman"" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019526316488347689) 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 28.1K engagements "FWIW here are a few wages measures and the pace of price growth they are consistent with based on past relationships (which could be different today or in the future)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021343642577764841) 2026-02-10T22:00Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "@zachdcarter He was bad faith with me. (He also would benefit from your excellent Keynes book because he knew no macro.) Ive done interviews with people with very different views from mine some more extreme than Jon Stewart & wouldnt say the same re them. E.g. https://www.levernews.com/the-lever-interviews-jason-furman/ https://www.levernews.com/the-lever-interviews-jason-furman/" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021637943782519109) 2026-02-11T17:30Z 187.4K followers, 14.2K engagements "@asobercannibal @zachdcarter I agree. That was a mistake on my part and I regret it" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021661039700689071) 2026-02-11T19:02Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect *slowing* potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over on their 1.8% LR GDP forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2021623624625492266) 2026-02-11T16:33Z 187.4K followers, 44.1K engagements "BTW here is actual inflation in January. It was below core because falling energy prices outweighed the continued rise in food prices" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022320236393824598) 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Bottom line: This is reassuring on inflation is consistent with my view that underlying inflation is about 2.5% with some downward pressure. Earlier this week we got good data on jobs. So the Fed can afford to watch and wait before doing anything" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022320237677330661) 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "@RYANHINGSHING They didn't collect rent in Oct and appear to have de facto assumed zero growth. That will be in the numbers through April. (Other things they didn't collect but not an issue because other things done in levels. So if $1 in Sep & $1.05 in Nov then missing Oct doesn't matter.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2022444618038604109) 2026-02-13T22:55Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements "Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1591080175881834498) 2022-11-11T14:47Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "On the favorable side of the ledger market-based core inflation--which is a better predictor of future inflation than regular core--has been somewhat lower. This excludes things like implied price of portfolio management fees" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1895475274927481004) 2025-02-28T14:04Z 185.5K followers, [----] engagements "Latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now: -2.8% annualized growth in Q1. And BTW if you look at "private GDP" it would be even worse at -3.8% (my calculations based on their component details)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896645073980273115) 2025-03-03T19:33Z 187.4K followers, 2.5M engagements "There is a massive disconnect between the views of economists and the public on the question of whether the price level should go back down after a burst of inflation. In fact I don't know of a bigger disconnect between the views of economists and the public. Do you @bryan_caplan If prices go up 20% (which is what has happened) should policymakers try to get prices back down to where they were 92% of economists disagree with doing this. But only 10% of the public does. From Shiller's classic [----] survey. https://t.co/H8bMwNVbXh https://t.co/8XwcBzYDiS If prices go up 20% (which is what has" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2001307000626401768) 2025-12-17T15:02Z 185.4K followers, 340.7K engagements "Finally the clearest evidence that this is a new normal--rather than a weak demand job market--is that nominal wage growth has remained reasonably robust and in fact ticked up a little in December" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2009642220161208602) 2026-01-09T15:03Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements "My conclusion: No reason at all for Fed to even think of cutting rates this month (and no evidence it is thinking about it). More broadly this lends a little weight to the positive story in the GDP data and a little less to the recessionary fears from earlier jobs data" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2009642221260120443) 2026-01-09T15:03Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements "Kevin Warsh is well above the bar on both substance and independence to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The Senate should ask tough questions about his independence & President Trump should reduce the threat to it. Hopefully that will make it clear Warsh should be confirmed" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017193377796641025) 2026-01-30T11:09Z 186.2K followers, 85.5K engagements "I don't expect President Trump to change his deep-seated beliefs but a critical step he could take would be to help ensure that Senator Tillis' call for the "legal matter" facing Chair Powell is "fully resolved." https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-federal-reserve-nominations https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-federal-reserve-nominations" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017193379264610423) 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, [----] engagements "(Normally a President should not involve themselves in the Department of Justice but let it operate as an independent enforcement agency. In this case however it is clear that the investigation was at a minimum based on President Trump's desires and public statements.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017193381932277967) 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, 11.1K engagements "Warsh has a range of views that would not have led me to recommend a Democratic President nominate him as Federal Reserve Chair. I would be thrilled if he ends up conducting himself over the next four years in a way that would make a President of any party want to reappoint him" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017193383345750418) 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, [----] engagements "Kevin Warsh is above the bar for the Fed. But to be even better than that he'll have to follow four rules I outlined in @TheFP: [--]. Independence [--]. Nonpartisan [--]. From critic to leader [--]. Willingness to reverse himself" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017601564257767603) 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, 62.2K engagements "3. Tim Geithner used to say "plan beats no plan." Warsh has been an incessant critic of the Fed without always saying what he would actually do differently. He'll need to make the shift to leader" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017601569886466361) 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements "4. The Fed's greatest strength is not that it always gets things right but that it error corrects & learns like it did when it waited too long but then pivoted to rapid rate hikes in [----]. Warsh will need to do the same possibly starting w/ his call to shrink the balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017601572231123318) 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements "If Warsh follows these four rules he could be a great Fed Chair. If he doesn't he could find himself powerless just one of twelve votes on the FOMC unable to even steer his institution not to mention the broader economy. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/opinion/trump-federal-reserve-powell.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/opinion/trump-federal-reserve-powell.html" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017601980534034603) 2026-01-31T14:12Z 186.5K followers, [----] engagements "Here is a link to full piece in The Free Press. https://www.thefp.com/p/four-rules-for-the-new-fed-chair https://www.thefp.com/p/four-rules-for-the-new-fed-chair" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017601981934891504) 2026-01-31T14:12Z 185.9K followers, [----] engagements "I also did a conversation on this topic with @NatashaRSarin and @oren_cass in @nytopinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017602271916495144) 2026-01-31T14:14Z 186.2K followers, [----] engagements "A conversation about Kevin Warsh (plus inevitably tariffs) with @NatashaRSarin and @oren_cass in @nytopinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2017633723810758721) 2026-01-31T16:19Z 186.4K followers, 52.1K engagements "In @nytopinion I explain the falling dollar. Although it's happening for the wrong reason it might actually be what the U.S. economy needs over the longer run to rebalance. But not necessarily politically fun in the short run" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2018691048336167074) 2026-02-03T14:20Z 186.4K followers, 42.2K engagements "Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/opinion/us-low-dollar.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/opinion/us-low-dollar.html" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2018691050827575786) 2026-02-03T14:20Z 186.2K followers, [----] engagements "Of the measures in the previous my preferred is inflation predictor is V/U is currently the loosest. My least favorite (but one that many liked pre-COVID I never did) EPOP which shows some tightness. Note [--] is not necessarily neutral just benchmarked to end of 2019" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019462667665125678) 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [----] engagements "We're firmly on the pre-COVID Beveridge curve" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019462668533264753) 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements "One Fed objective is max employment not any measure of labor market flows. We're probably a bit below it & either stable or only gradually loosening. Another objective is inflation. Underlying is about 2.5% and these measures suggest one should expect further downward pressure" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019462670622064705) 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [----] engagements "@PGunigantiAT @ErikHovenkamp @florianederer @conlon_chris @BrianCAlbrecht @arpitrage @anup_malani @julieinannap @ershov_daniel @econwags @lugaricano @KhoaVuUmn Is basically the definition of rents" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2019859097718272171) 2026-02-06T19:41Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements "@ernietedeschi The proposal would allow trading of A's across courses at Harvard. Which warms my economist heart" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2020265135126831395) 2026-02-07T22:35Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements "JCT dynamic score just out. Shows: [--]. Annual growth rate is [----] to [----] pp higher over ten years. (Yes less than [--] hundredths of a percent.) [--]. Tax cut costs $1.071T [--]. Conference bill is more costly and less pro-growth than House or Senate. https://www.jct.gov/publications.htmlfunc=startdown&id=5055 https://www.jct.gov/publications.htmlfunc=startdown&id=5055" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/944313366205599744) 2017-12-22T21:07Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements "@OECD simulation finds a (small) increase in the U.S. trade deficit if all G20 countries dramatically cut/eliminated tariffs. Shows it is foolish to either blame trade deficits on unfair trade or to judge the impact of trade liberalization by the impact on the trade balance" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1004389644316938241) 2018-06-06T15:48Z 163K followers, [--] engagements "Question: We all agree people should not have to pay for high school even though it has a monetary return to them. We also all agree people should have to pay for business school especially because it has a monetary return. How should we think about college" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1113823231235039244) 2019-04-04T15:18Z 176.9K followers, [---] engagements "My wife shares our family's experiences with Vice President Biden in the Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/joe-bidens-affectionate-warmth-what-makes-him-great/586435/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/joe-bidens-affectionate-warmth-what-makes-him-great/586435/" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1113824394185510913) 2019-04-04T15:23Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements "What policy will provide relief to: a. A waiter who is losing most of his tips b. A Lyft driver who is losing many of her trips c. A person who self quarantines without pay d. Someone who was going to re-enter the job market but can't now e. Everyone else Only one: CASH" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1238167883068223489) 2020-03-12T18:20Z 187.4K followers, 13.1K engagements "You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount not 99.9% discount but 100% discount. BLS has [----] career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number. This being the Trump era you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS but it's much more likely that the models used to produce these numbers they aren't really raw data have gone haywire in a time of pandemic 3/ This being the Trump era you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS but it's much more" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1268893499560206338) 2020-06-05T13:12Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "The loss of Emmanuel Farhi is a terrible tragedy a kind generous person who was opening up new ways to understand the macroeconomyand up until his death was working to apply them to understand and respond to the economic crisis were currently in. RIP" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1286722585284272129) 2020-07-24T17:59Z 177.1K followers, [---] engagements "The paths to victory: Biden has 11: GMPW GMP GMW GPW MPW GM GP GW MP MW PW Trump has 5: GMPW GMP GMW GPW MPW If these were all coin tosses Biden would be at 69%. (Footnote: Assuming Biden wins NV and Trump wins NC.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1323966954630238208) 2020-11-04T12:34Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements "I bought Gamestop a while ago. I did it to stick it to the hedge funds & financial industry. I recommend you do the same. See this for more. I would rather ruin a joke than you ruin yourself is a low fee index fund that holds everything in the mkt. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/vtsax https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/vtsax" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1354491817861869568) 2021-01-27T18:09Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements "The Recovery Act was a blend of timely & temporary measures like expanded UI and Making Work Pay (although it was not targeted--it went to 95% of workers). But it also had high speed rail universal broadband electronic medical records infrastructure clean energy etc" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1380591604856188937) 2021-04-09T18:41Z 162.2K followers, [--] engagements "In putting together the Recovery Act we scoured the campaign plans to pull out anything longer-term that could plausibly be described as temporary and included it. Thus the clean energy spending portion of the climate plan the electronic records from the health plan etc" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1380591605867020289) 2021-04-09T18:41Z 162.2K followers, [--] engagements "Here is your 3% inflation scorecard--what would need to happen for the rest of the year to get 3.0% on various measures. This is not a forecast nothing special about 3.0% but I found it useful and thought you might too" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1402286430806634496) 2021-06-08T15:28Z 163K followers, [---] engagements "The President's competition executive order is impressive & important. I expected a strong signal of his commitment to greater competition but was blown away by how detailed it was in setting out [--] specific initiatives across a wide range of agencies. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1413584430304841729) 2021-07-09T19:42Z 177.1K followers, [---] engagements "Is it possible that Jay Powell just sold his $1-5m in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund directly to Senator Warren Same fund same amount roughly the same dates. Someone should look into this. https://sec.report/Senate-Stock-Disclosures/Warren/Elizabeth/8685d414-5ed8-4d2e-b246-19790e981ff6 https://sec.report/Senate-Stock-Disclosures/Warren/Elizabeth/8685d414-5ed8-4d2e-b246-19790e981ff6" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1450238720972558341) 2021-10-18T23:13Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements "This is called a THEORY because it is testable and potentially falsifiable. You can test the assumptions themselves. And you can test their implication that: inflation = money supply growth - the trend growth rate of real GDP" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1490765996092579840) 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.1K followers, [--] engagements "Over long periods of time & large changes the theory works. This is the growth of money supply (adjusted for real GDP growth) & inflation from 1980-2019. The dotted line is the theory's prediction. This is not the law of gravity but it is about as close as you get in economics" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1490765999997534209) 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.2K followers, [---] engagements "This is because velocity can change a lot. In particular the money supply expanded a lot in the beginning of COVID but the velocity of money plummeted so inflation was low. Note velocity has stabilized at a lower level and the quantity theory is working OK over the last year" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1490766014497263617) 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements "This is a landmark proposal from President Biden a minimum tax that also applies to unrealized gainsas a prepayment against future capital gains. This should get serious consideration as a fair and efficient way to raise significant revenue. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/26/billionaire-tax-budget-biden/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/26/billionaire-tax-budget-biden/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1507814693909499909) 2022-03-26T20:20Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "A twitter thread on what I like about President Biden's "billionaire minimum income tax proposal" plus responses to a few objections I've heard. TL;DR: Landmark proposal to tax capital gains as they are accrued is fair efficient and raises revenue. https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-better-plan-to-tax-the-rich-unrealized-capital-gains-assets-treasury-distortion-11648497984 https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-better-plan-to-tax-the-rich-unrealized-capital-gains-assets-treasury-distortion-11648497984" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860496224522241) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements "This plan solves a few thorny issues: [--]. If your wealth is 80% in illiquid form you don't need to pay this. But you'll have a "deferral charge" when you eventually sell (or die) to roughly equalize the tax treatment of income from liquid and illiquid sources" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860506953592834) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements "1. It's not fair to treat unrealized gains symmetrically to realized gains. I strongly disagree. There may be an administrative simplicity/liquidity argument for taxing on realization but all the deeper arguments say accrual is right (if you can make it work)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860516441026563) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements "2. This will create distortions around liquid vs. illiquid the timing and form of sales and other gaming opportunities. Sure it probably creates some. But a lot less than the current system. And it has some clever design to minimize them. But no tax is perfect" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860517888061440) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements "3. It would be have been simpler to end step-up-basis at death which would ensure these gains are eventually taxed. Not a crazy view but: (1) a tax deferred is a tax saved so even this is lower revenue and (2) is politically more vulnerable to repeal because revenue comes later" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860519297400833) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.3K followers, [--] engagements "4. This fosters the view that raising taxes on the super-wealthy is sufficient to fund the society you or I would want. I worry about this. It's is a good tax idea but is not remotely sufficient more is needed--and not just from the very high income. So both/and not either/or" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1508860520744456195) 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements "5. SOCIAL BENEFITS TO HOUSEHOLDS. Rose much more (relative to trend) in the United States in [----] than elsewhere. The numbers for [----] are not out yet but we know they went up even more in the US and generally down elsewhere so disparity likely even larger" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1517556441199964160) 2022-04-22T17:30Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements "Note no rebalancing for consumers in April as spending on goods rose 2.3% and spending on services rose 0.5%. Also real disposable personal income per capita broke its [--] month straight slide to rise by a minuscule amount in April" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1530170130335813632) 2022-05-27T12:52Z 163.1K followers, [--] engagements "One criticism of MMT is that it does not have testable predictions. Increasingly it seems as if it does advance two testable (and tested) hypotheses: [--]. Cutting interest rates reduces inflation [--]. Well-designed government spending increases reduces inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1548713162727313408) 2022-07-17T16:56Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements "The Inflation Reduction Act is what the country needs right now--helping to address one of our biggest long-run challenges (climate change) while making progress on our biggest short-run challenge (inflation) while protecting the most vulnerable. A 🧵on inflation/fiscal aspects" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1552437436286124032) 2022-07-27T23:35Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Despite the dramatic decline in incomes real personal consumption expenditures are slowing--but still roughly holding their own. Even with huge inflation in June consumers still managed to spend 0.1% more in real terms" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1553009849256009728) 2022-07-29T13:29Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements "Student loan relief is not free. It would be paid for. Part of it would be paid for by the 87% of Americans who do not benefit but lose out from inflation. Part of it would be paid for by future spending cuts & tax increaseswith uncertainty about who will bear those costs" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1560632892476325889) 2022-08-19T14:20Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements "Two ways to think about it: [--]. Real resources. Were at capacity now. Student loan relief would lead some people to spend more. We cant make more so others would consume less. The way that happens is inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1560632897572421632) 2022-08-19T14:20Z 161.5K followers, [---] engagements "Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless. Doing it while going well beyond one campaign promise ($10K of student loan relief) and breaking another (all proposals paid for) is even worse" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1562503985529233410) 2022-08-24T18:15Z 187.4K followers, 17.7K engagements "The Fed's target PCE measure of inflation was lowered 0.9pp (annual rate) over the last six months by a quirk in how BEA imputes a non-market price for investment advice. Core inflation would have been 5.3% (ar) from Apr-Jul instead of the reported 4.3%. That's big. A short🧵" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1572405122407477249) 2022-09-21T01:59Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements "The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index BEA imputes the "price" of "Portfolio management and investment advice services" based on things like fees for asset management. These effectively automatically go up/down when the stock market goes up/down" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1572405126496747520) 2022-09-21T01:59Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements "@fcastofthemonth I reweighted the PCE measures to match the household weights not sure why that's different from your subtracting the CPI measure from the PCE measure (except CPI shelter growing slightly faster than PCE shelter). Will double check mine & think about why other differences" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1572455765583237120) 2022-09-21T05:20Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements "Worth reading this (long) thread if youre interested in this topic. 1/ Apologies for a long thread. Why did sterling and gilts sell off so much A fiscal expansion with a credible central bank would result in no change in inflation expectations a rise in expected future interest rates and exchange rate appreciation. 1/ Apologies for a long thread. Why did sterling and gilts sell off so much A fiscal expansion with a credible central bank would result in no change in inflation expectations a rise in expected future interest rates and exchange rate appreciation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1575259130000019460) 2022-09-28T23:00Z 162.3K followers, [--] engagements "Some real increase in personal consumption expenditures in August (+1.2% annual rate) undoing the August decline. Overall personal spending levels remain strong. Note PCE declines much less in slowdowns/recessions than business investment and housing" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1575836309595525125) 2022-09-30T13:13Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements "These other special factors are similar in magnitude to the lags in housing in some cases possibly larger. Some are directly analogous (health insurance in the CPI is even more lagged than housing will switch from artificially raising inflation to artificially lowering it)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1580573007537266691) 2022-10-13T14:55Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements "On balance I do expect that the core inflation rate will fall (although much more for the CPI measure than the Fed's preferred PCE measure so will see more convergence between them). I just don't expect it to fall that much" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1580573008837550080) 2022-10-13T14:55Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements "Instead of the fiscal dominance I had feared the UK is now experiencing monetary dominance. Monetary policymakers are not keeping rates low to support a fiscal expansion instead fiscal policymakers are turning contractionary to prevent large rate rises" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1581991901498343425) 2022-10-17T12:53Z 161.7K followers, [---] engagements "A terrific important report from @JustinBloesch for @rooseveltinst. I agree with the bottom line and think an inflation target range of something like 2-3.5% makes sense for the asymmetric Phillips curve articulated in the paper plus would add the decline in the neutral rate. New report at @rooseveltinst: As the Fed tries to steer the economy back to normal what inflation rate should the Fed aim for Should it always be 2% in the future I argue that the Fed should adopt a target range for inflation of 2-3.5%. A thread: https://t.co/ltHHxBl9Oh New report at @rooseveltinst: As the Fed tries to" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1593385684504551424) 2022-11-17T23:28Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements "Wow: the October personal saving rate was the second lowest ever recorded (data goes back to 1959). The two-month moving average was actually the lowest ever recorded and the three-month moving average was the third lowest" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1598344131117555712) 2022-12-01T15:51Z 163.3K followers, [----] engagements "The low and fall saving rate is supporting a huge divergence between stagnant real incomes and steadily rising consumption. Relative to CBO's pre-pandemic forecast* real per capita: Disposable personal income: -5% Personal consumption expenditures: +2.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1598344134686900224) 2022-12-01T15:51Z 163.4K followers, [---] engagements "Stunning jobs numbers--it took me time to recover (although most of the delay in tweeting was because in a meeting). Never update too much never update too much never update too much but wow. [------] jobs. Big jump in average hours. Unemployment down to 3.4%. Strong wages" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1621547027074289664) 2023-02-03T16:31Z 163.4K followers, 204.3K engagements "I have a hard time seeing how the implied market breakeven of 2% inflation this year makes any sense. Absent a recession inflation below 3% is unlikely. And even with one inflation below 3% is far from guaranteed" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1625495898599096323) 2023-02-14T14:03Z 161.5K followers, 75.8K engagements "The economy is very overheated. We have made little if any progress on inflation. There is little if any reason to expect a large slowdown going forward. Core PCE at an annual rate: [--] month: 7.1% [--] months: 4.7% [--] months: 5.1% [--] months: 4.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1629122537857613825) 2023-02-24T14:14Z 163.3K followers, 787.6K engagements "A wide range of measures of "underlying" inflation are telling the same story. [--] month annualized inflation: Overall: 4.0% Core: 4.7% Core w/ new rent: 3.4% Core ex housing and used cars: 4.5% Market core: 4.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1629122539661279232) 2023-02-24T14:14Z 163.3K followers, 29K engagements "Consumer spending rose a lot in January and remains very high--about 2% above a pre-COVID forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1629139577171595267) 2023-02-24T15:21Z 163.3K followers, 67.4K engagements "The good news for the sustainability of the economy and the bad news for inflation is that this consumer spending is increasingly coming from rising incomes. Given the strong employment and wage gains real disposable income has been rising" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1629139579423846401) 2023-02-24T15:21Z 163.3K followers, 21.7K engagements "After steadily improving median PCE inflation shot up again in January. it is running at a 5.4% annual rate over the last three months. Has a lot of desirable properties for a measure of underlying inflation but distorted by lagged shelter" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1629239367410630664) 2023-02-24T21:58Z 163.3K followers, 25K engagements "@hoon_k The FDIC does a lot more in a situation like this than just pay out $250000 to insured depositors. From @matt_levine https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startup-bank-had-a-startup-bank-run https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startup-bank-had-a-startup-bank-run" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1634327030438195204) 2023-03-10T22:55Z 163.2K followers, [----] engagements "@CribstoneMacro Could you buy VT or VTI They hold basically everything" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1650156903492714496) 2023-04-23T15:17Z 163.4K followers, [---] engagements "Note this is the precisely the argument/analysis one would use for Turkish inflation or a stimulus plan that gave everyone $1m checks. You wouldn't expect a linear labor market model to pick up all the inflation that would ensue" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1661487202344501248) 2023-05-24T21:39Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "Identities don't prove anything. But add a little structure and they can help. Real GDP growth was as fast as could be reasonably expected post-pandemic. But the economy was awash in support for nominal spending--which manifested in higher prices" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1661487203619414018) 2023-05-24T21:39Z 151.4K followers, 14K engagements "On the income side corporate profits fell for the third straight quarter and are down 2.8% over the last year. BUT this reflects a huge loss for the Fed. Taking that out profits down a little in Q1 and up 7.0% in the last quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1661721814547185664) 2023-05-25T13:12Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements "Then there is the Fed's preferred vivisection which is core services excluding housing. That bounced up in April but does not add to my worries because a lot of that is in imputed stuff (see next tweet)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1662088657057243137) 2023-05-26T13:29Z 159.5K followers, [----] engagements "It would probably be best however if everyone looked at market-based core PCE which excludes imputed items like the price of portfolio management which is based on stock prices. Market core PCE also much better predicted by the labor market. Has improved for [--] straight months" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1662088658906935301) 2023-05-26T13:29Z 159.5K followers, [----] engagements "I think it is more likely that AI saves humans from extinction than that it kills all the humans. Many ways to imagine it helps us cure a disease or stop an asteroid fewer ways it could commandeer and redirect the physical ability to kill all of us" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1663718819859185664) 2023-05-31T01:27Z 162K followers, 138.9K engagements "This is concerning given that this is the deficit with an economy that has been below a 4% unemployment rate for more than a year. Note CBO's latest forecast (published in May) projected 18.4% of GDP revenues in [----] and a 5.9% of GDP deficit--unfortunately not looking as good" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1666898935414415360) 2023-06-08T20:04Z 154.2K followers, 43.3K engagements "Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose at about a 5% annual rate for a sixth straight month. But other measures of underlying inflation were much lower reflecting the outsized importance of shelter and used cars (again) this month. Some relief should be coming" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1668600964822228992) 2023-06-13T12:47Z 154.2K followers, 186.8K engagements "@BuffinArmor And I should add I still see the risks as asymmetric. Very unlikely we're going to end up with inflation 1%. Completely plausible it stays 4%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1668618878099013634) 2023-06-13T13:58Z 162K followers, [---] engagements "Bit off all my nails watching the unnecessarily close cloture vote on the excellent @econjared46. He passed the key hurdle is on track to be confirmed as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers but this vote should have been 100-0 not 50-49" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1668695914037366787) 2023-06-13T19:04Z 162.1K followers, 39.1K engagements "I don't understand Chair Powell's claim that "policy hasn't been restrictive for very long". The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index reached its current level of restrictiveness over a year ago--and has eased considerably since the fall" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674066028609826816) 2023-06-28T14:48Z 154.2K followers, 141.8K engagements "In sum just about every way monetary policy affects the economy reached its current level of tightness over a year ago. Just about everything you would expect to be affected by monetary policy (housing nonresidential structures net exports) was--but in the past" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674066061065437194) 2023-06-28T14:44Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "@Kathleen_Hays Yes but the FFR - inflation doesn't affect consumer spending home building exports or anything else that would affect real GDP growth or inflation. Their conduct of policy has relied very heavily on forward guidance which is missing when you just look at spot rates" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674074357554118656) 2023-06-28T15:17Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "@JuliusProbst I'm not sure what "monetary restrictiveness" is. I'm just interested in what affects policy will have on housing consumer spending inflation etc. Also not interested in spot measures when the Fed was saying it would raise rates by 75bp/meeting" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674076661128785921) 2023-06-28T15:26Z 151.8K followers, [----] engagements "In absolute terms the United States has had an impressive employment recovery. But it has been comparatively weak compared to other advanced OECD countries--24 of [--] economies have had larger increases in their employment rates for prime age (25-54) workers" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674417886633533447) 2023-06-29T15:23Z 154.2K followers, 61.8K engagements "(Side note: If you judge the recovery by comparative metrics it's worth including this one as well. And maybe these differences are solely due to institutions/starting points but should take these seriously for GDP and inflation comparisons as well.)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1674417906120273925) 2023-06-29T14:02Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "And here are all the different numbers in one handy table" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1674766063286857731) 2023-06-30T13:05Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements "Overall what is happening is that service price growth is gradually slowing--as was predictable and predicted given the lags in the shelter measure. And goods price growth which was unusually (and likely transitorily) high in recent months turned back down again" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679111889660542976) 2023-07-12T12:54Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "The collapsing of "supercore" which excludes food energy shelter and used cars (the narrowest category BLS publishes) is even more dramatic. Annual rates: [--] month: 0.3% [--] months: 1.1% [--] months: 2.7% [--] months: 3.6%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679111892093263872) 2023-07-13T00:14Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "Or you can swap in new rents for all rents and you get the following annual rates: [--] month: -0.6% [--] months: 1.9% [--] months: 2.5% [--] months: 2.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679111894156853248) 2023-07-13T00:14Z 151.4K followers, [----] engagements "The Fed's credibility deserves a lot of credit for some of the painless disinflation we've been seeing. Both the credibility earned over decades of low inflation & reinforced by their aggressive moves against inflation. It is extremely valuable for them to keep this credibility" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679151020977410052) 2023-07-12T15:29Z 154.2K followers, [---] engagements "95% of the commentary should be on how inflation is falling with a particularly pleasant surprise for June. But 5% of the commentary should grapple with why this fall (for core) has been much slower than was generally expected even as recently as a few months ago" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679155637291302912) 2023-07-12T15:47Z 163.4K followers, 38.3K engagements "The statement I made that all of the non-standard underlying measures are better than headline and core is no longer true. Both median and trimmed mean are pointing to more inflation than core is (although both suffer from lagged shelter data)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679185715719188481) 2023-07-12T17:47Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements "Here is one of the tweets based on the erroneous data that I deleted" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679185717644398592) 2023-07-12T17:47Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "As for the NORMATIVE question I think that stabilizing inflation at 3% would be healthier than stabilizing it at 2%--provided it could be done in a credible way that maintained all the benefits we've enjoyed that stem from the Fed's credibility" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679492303172538370) 2023-07-14T18:13Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "But I have several reasons that I still don't think we're on a trajectory for inflation below 3% (and you may not think we need to be--that's a normative discussion we can separate from this positive forecasting exercise):" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679520307361755136) 2023-07-13T16:19Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "How are real wages doing Most measures show they are up since prior to the pandemic but are still 3-5% below their immediate pre-pandemic trajectory. This shows what it looks like for average hourly earnings defining the trend based on the two years pre-COVID" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679539138704596992) 2023-07-15T01:22Z 154.2K followers, 162.7K engagements "@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 FWIW my views were roughly: Summer [----] - Spring 2022: Fed should do more Spring [----] - Feb 2023: Fed has it right & their dovish critics are mistaken Feb 2023: Revised inflation etc says they should do more. (They shifted in that direction but wisely held off due to SVB.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679986369278488577) 2023-07-14T22:48Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements "@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 I also thoughtand still thatthat getting inflation down to 2.0% would be painful. But that should not be our goal. And that we had a shot at an immaculate loosening in labor markets and milder increase in UR sufficient to bring inflation below 3%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1679989567149993985) 2023-07-14T23:01Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements "@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 Ive also made a lot of comments. I try to be careful but Im sure there are inconsistencies or shifts in emphasis. And many things that were wrong (eg inflation fell much less than I expected in [----] and early [----] and more than I expected lately)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1679989946830970880) 2023-07-14T23:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Not my exact probabilities but they are completely reasonable (in fact just adding up to 100% and not having any 0%'s is well ahead of the way many people think about many issues)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1681309301657473033) 2023-07-26T15:05Z [--] followers, 23.7K engagements "This is definitely not what I thought would happen to market-based financial conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1682161516588711937) 2023-07-20T22:52Z 153.1K followers, 143.4K engagements "Forecasters expect both US and Euro area inflation to converge close to target on roughly the same schedule despite the large differences now. (Note tweeting this agreeing. My expectation for both differs from this.)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1682185369478139904) 2023-07-21T03:44Z [--] followers, 14.9K engagements "GDP growth was strong in Q2 at a 2.4% annual rate. The pattern represents a partial handover with consumption growth moderating (1.6%) while fixed investment picked up (4.6%). Volatile inventories and net exports small so better signal also about the same (PDFP was 2.3%)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684546337235251200) 2023-07-30T08:00Z 154.2K followers, 118.4K engagements "@callmegiorgie @WSJopinion Wal-Mart is one. It grew organically not through mergers. Efficiency has improved an enormous amounts. And those savings have been passed on to customers while margins have stayed low. Meta competing with this app might be another sometimes big can increase competition" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684680116838801409) 2023-07-27T21:40Z 161.6K followers, 73.9K engagements "Private wages and salaries increased at a 4.1% annual rate (or 1.0%) from March to June according to the ECI that is the slowest pace since the inflationary period began and only a touch above the pre-COVID pace" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684910710092898304) 2023-07-28T16:30Z 154.2K followers, 135.8K engagements "Core PCE inflation came in very low (albeit a touch above expectations) the second lowest pace of the inflationary period. Here are the annual rates: [--] month: 2.0% [--] months: 3.4% [--] month: 4.1% [--] months: 4.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684914140937089024) 2023-07-28T13:10Z 151.4K followers, [---] engagements "Finally finally headline. Has basically been at target (2.5% annual rate over [--] months) but no one would argue for taking that too seriously as a guide to the future because that is a result of the rapid decline in energy prices something that will not continue forever" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684914149023703040) 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "Here are annual rates for all the numbers at various horizons. I'll post the Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure later when we get trimmed mean and core" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684914150785396736) 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure was 3.4% in June down from 4.0% in May. Based on [--] different measures X [--] different periods (excludes [--] month) so [--] total. Corresponds to 3-month core 12-month core services ex housing and 3-month trimmed mean" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1684952001677819904) 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, 146.5K engagements "@paulkrugman Yes of course that means using forecasts. And those dont have a great track record either" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1685041120806400000) 2023-07-28T21:34Z 161.5K followers, [----] engagements "Rough view of what the Fed should do this year based on core PCE in 2023-H2: [--]. Above 3.5%: Hike more than once. [--]. At 3.5%: Hike once. [--]. Below 3.5% & UR 4%: No more hikes. [--]. Below 3.5% & UR 4%: Cut rates" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1685317346821394434) 2023-07-29T15:52Z 163.1K followers, 153.5K engagements "This is roughly consistent with the reaction function implicit in the June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (note full-year core PCE of 3.9% means 3.5% in H2). So to the degree real activity and inflation deviate from what they expected they should react accordingly" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1685317348029313024) 2023-07-29T15:52Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "@KAErdmann This is the next six months or so. If core inflation is below 3% then sometime early next year would start cutting" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1685334425007951872) 2023-07-29T22:13Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "The JOLTS data are consistent with further immaculate cooling of the labor market. Openings were roughly unchanged but the quits rate fell back to 2.4% tied for the cycle low" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1686386125475340288) 2023-08-06T02:25Z 151.4K followers, 110.6K engagements "Productivity increased at a 3.7% annual rate in 2023-Q2. That's too small a unit of time to look at this volatile series. Over the last year it is up at a 1.3% annual rate" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687091758075895809) 2023-08-03T19:05Z 154.2K followers, 29.2K engagements "Today's yield curve steepening is a [---] standard deviation event. Very rare to see something of this magnitude" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687132502316711936) 2023-08-03T16:05Z 163.1K followers, 386.7K engagements "Today's steepening of the yield curve is 10bp. This is on top of more over the last two days so 21bp cumulative over three days--which is a [--] standard deviation event. Even more unusual than just today" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687136942834802688) 2023-08-03T16:22Z 154.2K followers, 22.4K engagements "@arnoblalam CDS which are a direct measure of default risk not up. And started pre-Fitch. And hard to imagine market still digesting it more than [--] hours later. So dont think its that" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687146819388915712) 2023-08-03T17:02Z 152.4K followers, [----] engagements "@Arbitrage_econs The increase was all in the real rate not the breakeven for inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687230448198635525) 2023-08-03T22:34Z 163.3K followers, [----] engagements "The labor market continues to slow w/ 187K jobs in July (and downward revisions for June)--a healthy pace but together with June a step down from the 300K pace earlier this year. A decline in hours contributed more to the slowing. At the same time wage growth picked up" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687447976720105472) 2023-08-06T02:25Z 154.2K followers, 37.3K engagements "@MichaelRStrain We were creating 190K jobs per month in the year before COVID. A soft landing is inflation returning to/near target w/o recession. I continue to think the odds are against that. But if sustained core PCE 3% I will call it a soft landing even if job growth is 175K or more" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687522175300116480) 2023-08-04T18:08Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "@MichaelRStrain @MarcGoldwein If you have a quadratic loss function (which a lot of models of Fed policy have) then lowering inflation from 4.8% to 4.0% is 6X as valuable as lowering it from 2.8% to 2.0%. (And that is assuming 2.0% is optimal which I don't think.)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1687529821822500864) 2023-08-04T19:04Z 154.2K followers, [---] engagements "On Thursday the headline inflation measure will increase from 3.0% to something like 3.2%. The takeaways will be: (1) you should pay less attention to 12-month measures & (2) you should pay less attention to headline (which includes volatile food and energy)" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1688994202225364992) 2023-08-08T19:22Z 154.2K followers, 62.6K engagements "@NickRoussanov @JohnHCochrane @Cessnadriver50 Here are RMSE errors for predicting year-ahead inflation based on various inflation concepts. Basically all the core-like measures are similarly good and the overall ones are meaningfully worse" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689301011054182400) 2023-08-09T15:42Z 151.9K followers, [----] engagements "The CPI came in basically just as expected--the second unambiguously good month in a row (following a few months that most likely should be interpreted as improvements as well). Core CPI at an annual rate: [--] month: 1.9% [--] months: 3.1% [--] months: 4.1% [--] months: 4.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689620358444306432) 2023-08-10T12:50Z 154.2K followers, 111.9K engagements "Overall real average hourly earnings (both private and production and non-supervisory which excludes managers) continue to rise. But they are 4% and 3% below their immediate pre-pandemic trend respectively" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689620369487908864) 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements "Aug is likely to see an increase in headline m/m inflation because of gas prices. Core forecasts vary. Over coming months [--] big shifts likely for CPI: Shelter: Likely to slow further Medical serves: Will pick up (in CPI not PCE) Goods: Likely higher than volatile dip in July" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689620371048210433) 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, 29.9K engagements "Overall assuming August is relatively moderate as well there is no reason for the Fed to raise rates at their September meeting. I outlined my views on this earlier. IF some of the good news proves transitory however they'll need to go back & do more" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689620372960735232) 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, 14.3K engagements "The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure for July is 2.5% down from 2.8% last month. This measure has been plunging over the last several months" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689685117353041941) 2023-08-10T17:08Z 151.1K followers, 30K engagements "It also incorporates the median and trimmed mean CPI estimated by the Cleveland Fed both of which were down and/or relatively low in July" [X Link](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1689685120410689553) 2023-08-10T17:08Z 151.3K followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@jasonfurman Jason Furman
Jason Furman posts on X about inflation, gdp, fed, tariffs the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance #5819 countries technology brands social networks us election currencies stocks celebrities cryptocurrencies musicians
Social topic influence inflation #117, gdp #44, fed #183, tariffs #137, rates, investment, gdp growth, core #830, fomc, 6 months
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @nytopinion @gregip @wsjopinion @justinwolfers @daviddesj @aesop_npv @michaelrstrain @nicktimiraos @mattyglesias @tylercowen @kausmickey @robinjbrooks @dr_gingerballs @goldmarkovchain @kathleenhays @ernietedeschi @marcgoldwein @johnhcochrane @rinsana @atabarrok
Top assets mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Here are the full set of numbers"
X Link 2025-02-28T14:04Z 184.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Investment in information processing equipment & software is 4% of GDP. But it was responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year. GDP excluding these categories grew at a 0.1% annual rate in H1"
X Link 2025-09-27T17:48Z 184.8K followers, 120.6K engagements
"The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.7% in September unchanged from the previous month. This is the median [--] measures. FWIW my own judgmental view is a smidge lower because some of this is transitory tariff inflation"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:16Z 184.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@carney Lower net immigration should lower both breakeven job growth and GDP growth. So it helps solve one issue (why low job growth is not recessionary) but doesnt really resolve the disconnect Im trying to puzzle through"
X Link 2025-12-23T16:05Z 185K followers, [----] engagements
"Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina Russia Turkey Venezuela and Zimbabwe"
X Link 2026-01-12T02:00Z 185.1K followers, 996.8K engagements
"Inflation is moderating (but still above target) & consumer spending is booming according to PCE data for Oct & Nov released today. Core PCE annual rate: [--] month: 1.9% [--] months: 2.3% [--] months: 2.6% [--] months: 2.8%"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:14Z 185.2K followers, 13.5K engagements
"The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.6% in November. Has hovered around there all year. Is the median of [--] measures (8 bases [--] periods all re-meaned to match PCE). FWIW that is about where my judgmental estimate would be too"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:39Z 184.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@Brad_Setser @davidshor @MattZeitlin I would also add once you control for inflation then it's not obvious why even import prices would matter. I believe some goods/services may be more salient than others but would rather just test that directly than the extremely indirectly link to exchange rates"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:32Z 184.8K followers, [---] engagements
"If you must forecast forecast a number or forecast a datebut never both. CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next [--] to [--] months https://t.co/yYKzS7NIOP https://t.co/HvA6Q7KgIc CEO of Microsoft AI Mustafa Suleyman joins FT editor Roula Khalaf to explain why most of the tasks accountants lawyers and other professionals currently undertake will be fully automated by AI within the next [--] to [--] months https://t.co/yYKzS7NIOP"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:04Z 187.4K followers, 35.4K engagements
"On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%). And just about every detail makes it even stronger: participation up involuntary part-time down hours up wages up. The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved in the direction of GDP"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, 75K engagements
"It looks like the economy has strong GDP growth momentum going into [----] potentially some additional demand & a stabilizing labor market . Of course that could all change because economies are unpredictable. But no need for rate cuts for now"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"A few months ago the discourse was about whether or not AI was a bubble. Now it's shifted to whether or not we're about to enter a dramatically new era. Of course both could be true"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:38Z 187.4K followers, 22.5K engagements
"After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics & tariffs. So we'll see"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:16Z 187.4K followers, 28.9K engagements
"@DianeSwonk Absolutely tariffs have added a lot to inflation. And unless reversed they will keep the price level higher. But the inflation effect is going away as we settle into the higher level. And fading of transitory tariff inflation a reason to be optimistic about future inflation"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:26Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Two things to keep in mind: [--]. Trade restrictions hurt both the United States and Canada. [--]. Trade restrictions hurt Canada much much more. Exports to Canada are 1% of U.S. GDP Exports to the United States are 18% of Canadian GDP (Data for 2024) Exports to Canada are 1% of U.S. GDP Exports to the United States are 18% of Canadian GDP (Data for 2024)"
X Link 2025-03-28T21:20Z 187.4K followers, 87.7K engagements
"@soumitrashukla9 No good faith. No attempt to listen and learn. No humility"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:28Z 187.4K followers, 140.4K engagements
"The White House however still seems to be calling it "Chairman.""
X Link 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 63.4K engagements
"I will be enthusiastically supporting faculty legislation to cap the number of A's at Harvard at 20% (plus a bit). The collective action problem that has driven grades higher & higher over time is increasingly problematic. I hope other institutions consider similar steps"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187.4K followers, 632.8K engagements
"The single worst interview I've ever done was with Jon Stewart. I normally try to be calm and level-headed but I basically lost it with him. And worry that I lost viewers/listeners too doing more to convince them that economists were obnoxious than that we had useful insights"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:27Z 187.4K followers, 1.5M engagements
"@harryh I cant remember but from my perspective it got bad. I was both very frustrated with him (and the other guest) and mad at myself for how I handled it. But may not have been genuine fireworks. You can judge"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:39Z 187.4K followers, 96.7K engagements
"A very rapid pace of wage growth too. Might worry about this being indicative of an overly hot/inflationary economy but the fact that both the ECI and Atlanta tracker are growing less suggests this may be more about composition"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@alecrogers1968 That's quite a memory wasn't that in 2008"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:32Z 187.4K followers, 30.7K engagements
"Family says I dont live in the social media mainstream. But Ill show them by sharing this pop culture content. Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime opening dubbed to English https://t.co/2mwMQOGaN5 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime opening dubbed to English https://t.co/2mwMQOGaN5"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:00Z 187.4K followers, 40.7K engagements
"Interesting piece by @uybpham about Kevin Warsh's time as a student in Harvard Law School. I learned a lot that hasn't been in any of the other profiles or pieces about Warsh. Classmates say Kevin Warsh gravitated toward finance early on at Harvard Law School. Now he is President Donald Trumps nominee to lead the Federal Reserve the nations central bank. @uybpham reports. https://t.co/5l5VYWDAgj Classmates say Kevin Warsh gravitated toward finance early on at Harvard Law School. Now he is President Donald Trumps nominee to lead the Federal Reserve the nations central bank. @uybpham reports."
X Link 2026-02-12T18:52Z 187.4K followers, 36K engagements
"In the late 1990s Alan Greenspan aggressively raised interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5%. Nevertheless inflation was still rising relatively rapidly (nearly 0.5pp/yr). And there was a productivity boom. I draw out the real lessons from Alan Greenspan for today in @ftopinion"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:50Z 187.4K followers, 14.2K engagements
"Plus I would note that late 1990s productivity growth was in the 3-4% annual rate range. We're nowhere near that. At least not yet"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:50Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: [--] month: 3.3% [--] months: 2.5% [--] months: 2.5%"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Here are the full numbers. Sadly no data for October because of shutdown so can't compute [--] month changes"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Core goods inflation was high as the tariffs were kicking in but has basically gone away and I don't think there is much reason to expect it back. If you wanted to make yourself nervous could focus on resurgence of core services does that reflect underlying inflation pressures"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, 10.9K engagements
"A nice account of how the tariff passthrough to inflation is more complicated and uncertain than you might think. And BTW the less passthrough to date the more you should be worried about delayed passthrough in the future. Ahead of January CPI release a key question is what are tariffs contribution to core inflation 🧵1/12 Ahead of January CPI release a key question is what are tariffs contribution to core inflation 🧵1/12"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:30Z 187.4K followers, 19K engagements
"The CPI-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 2.1% in January. This is likely depressed a bit by BLS measurement issues during shutdown. My judgment still remains 2.5%. (Note I did the median of the 4-month [--] month and [--] month measures.)"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:39Z 187.4K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Tomorrow's GDP report just got more suspenseful: the final Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast was 1.1% down from the 2.5% they had before. Is basically converged with the 1.0% that IHS Markit is expecting. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow"
X Link 2023-04-26T21:34Z 186.6K followers, 21.9K engagements
"Every member of the FOMC thinks that at least some of the recent favorable inflation news was transitorily transitory. Specifically hitting their forecasts for core PCE inflation in [----] (which range from 3.5% to 4.2%) would require a step-up in inflation over the next months"
X Link 2023-09-20T19:59Z 187.1K followers, 40.5K engagements
"How the recovery has compared to CBO's pre-pandemic forecast"
X Link 2024-02-25T19:05Z 187.3K followers, 91.6K engagements
"I wanted to respond to an issue my friend @econJaredB raised about my conclusion in my recent Foreign Affairs piece that real wages are below trend. My conclusion is VERY robust to just about every major wage measure and trend. I will expand & explain in this 🧵"
X Link 2025-02-23T15:20Z 187.4K followers, 111.2K engagements
"Torn as to whether this is more dumb or more corrupt"
X Link 2025-03-02T17:52Z 187.4K followers, 684.6K engagements
"President Trump has taken an extraordinary and dangerous step of firing two FTC Commissioners. This is a dramatic ratcheting up of the politicization of the agency--the opposite of the direction it should be going in"
X Link 2025-03-18T21:58Z 186.6K followers, 275.4K engagements
"I dont think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before. But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise. He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats"
X Link 2025-08-11T23:19Z 187.4K followers, 497.6K engagements
"Fertility rates are way below what the Social Security Trustees projected in both [----] and [----]. And yet they have barely updated their long-run forecast. What's the best argument for the plausibility of their forecast"
X Link 2025-09-30T20:58Z 187.3K followers, 199.5K engagements
"I discuss the broader issues of Fed independence plus more nitty gritty on the current macro situation and Fed outlook with @Kathleen_Hays on Central Bank Central. Link in the next"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market is genuinely loose. Not scarily loose possibly stabilizing but in a position where it should continue to put downward pressure on inflation. Today we learned job openings fell and stand at [----] openings per unemployed"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:26Z 187.2K followers, 31K engagements
"At the time most news accounts seem to have called the job "Chairman" although "Chairwoman" appeared sometimes too--in fact the NYT used both within weeks"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The morning of Obama's announcement I got a call that she had changed her mind & wanted "Chair." I got to the speechwriters & they made the change shortly before the speech went on the prompter. (Although re-reading it they missed a few "chairman" oops.) https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/10/09/remarks-president-nominating-dr-janet-yellen-chair-board-governors-feder https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/10/09/remarks-president-nominating-dr-janet-yellen-chair-board-governors-feder"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187K followers, [----] engagements
"The rest of the world has been a bit inconsistent in adopting the new language and still is. The same news organizations--even the same articles--might have both "chairman" and "chair". But mostly it seems to be "chair" like elsewhere (e.g. department heads boards etc.)"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 17.9K engagements
"One place the current system fails--and it's not the only place--is honors. I'm on the Committee to recommend honors in the economics department. It's increasingly hard to distinguish excellence with so many A's. I believe that now even two A-'s makes you ineligible for Summa"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187K followers, 12.3K engagements
"It's unfair that a class that happens to have smarter students is penalized. But the current system is unfair too with huge variance in grading across classes and departments. I don't see any solution that doesn't involve some modicum of rough justice"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:31Z 187.2K followers, 55.5K engagements
"A striking graph from @hilarysburns in the Boston Globe. And this is after what is likely favorable disparate treatment of men in the college admissions process (aka affirmative action). Should lead us to think harder about what can be done at earlier stages to narrow the gap"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:28Z 187.3K followers, 27.8K engagements
"The full story is a good read (but I believe paywalled). https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/01/30/metro/men-college-campus-enrollment-declines/s_campaign=sharetool_copypaste_view https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/01/30/metro/men-college-campus-enrollment-declines/s_campaign=sharetool_copypaste_view"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:28Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@itaisher Of course it's not the best mechanism. The problem is I've talked to dozens of faculty/administrators and everyone has a different mechanism. And all completely different. So I'll try to push the proposal a bit but ultimately am OK with bandwagoning around benign dictatorship"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:45Z 186.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at about a 3% annual rate"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:00Z 187.4K followers, 11.7K engagements
"The job growth happened despite further cuts in federal jobs. Private employment was up an impressive 172K"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Note breakeven job growth is currently about 25-50K because of reduced net immigration & also more fully recovered participation. So job growth has slowed but the unemployment rate now seems to have stabilized after slowly and steadily increasing since mid-2023"
X Link 2026-02-11T15:50Z 187.3K followers, [----] engagements
"When your rent goes up nominal GDP goes up but real GDP does not. When your salary goes down real GDP goes down (because it is identical to real GDI which goes down). When your rent goes up so does GDP. Same with your salary going down (provided this results in more spending by your boss). GDP isnt really a measure of the health of The Economy its a measure of the parts of The Economy that make rich people (that is the Epstein When your rent goes up so does GDP. Same with your salary going down (provided this results in more spending by your boss). GDP isnt really a measure of the health of"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:25Z 187.4K followers, 33.3K engagements
"Glad to see this sensible re-tuning of Harris's tax policy. It makes sense to raise more revenue in a progressive manner but raising the capital gains rate into the 40s gets little incremental revenue (because people delay selling) relative to the costs. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-to-pare-back-bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-14c537b1 https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-to-pare-back-bidens-capital-gains-tax-proposal-14c537b1"
X Link 2024-09-04T20:18Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Three questions for @superwuster: [--]. Is there a positive or negative externality to alcohol consumption at sporting events [--]. Does the price of alcohol at sporting affect the demand for tickets [--]. What happens to prices when demand changes and supply is inelastic This is just dumb and shows a failure to understand buyers. Assuming fans have a fixed total budget is a fallacy. If the stadium could charge more for tickets it would. This is just dumb and shows a failure to understand buyers. Assuming fans have a fixed total budget is a fallacy. If the stadium could charge more for tickets it would"
X Link 2025-11-15T14:08Z 187.4K followers, 407.9K engagements
"The untold() story of how we (mostly) got a Fed chair. And why we (mostly) no longer have a Fed chairman. Preview: President Obama's nomination remarks where he says he is nominating Janet Yellen as "Chair" to replace "Chairman" Bernanke after her service as "Vice Chairman""
X Link 2026-02-05T21:39Z 187.4K followers, 28.1K engagements
"FWIW here are a few wages measures and the pace of price growth they are consistent with based on past relationships (which could be different today or in the future)"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:00Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@zachdcarter He was bad faith with me. (He also would benefit from your excellent Keynes book because he knew no macro.) Ive done interviews with people with very different views from mine some more extreme than Jon Stewart & wouldnt say the same re them. E.g. https://www.levernews.com/the-lever-interviews-jason-furman/ https://www.levernews.com/the-lever-interviews-jason-furman/"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:30Z 187.4K followers, 14.2K engagements
"@asobercannibal @zachdcarter I agree. That was a mistake on my part and I regret it"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:02Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"CBO is mostly dismissive of the effects of AI on productivity growth (overly so IMHO). They expect slowing potential labor force productivity as the modest AI boost to TFP is swamped by the reduction in capital services. I would take the over on their 1.8% LR GDP forecast"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:33Z 187.4K followers, 44.1K engagements
"BTW here is actual inflation in January. It was below core because falling energy prices outweighed the continued rise in food prices"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Bottom line: This is reassuring on inflation is consistent with my view that underlying inflation is about 2.5% with some downward pressure. Earlier this week we got good data on jobs. So the Fed can afford to watch and wait before doing anything"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:41Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@RYANHINGSHING They didn't collect rent in Oct and appear to have de facto assumed zero growth. That will be in the numbers through April. (Other things they didn't collect but not an issue because other things done in levels. So if $1 in Sep & $1.05 in Nov then missing Oct doesn't matter.)"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:55Z 187.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something What was the benign explanation for this while the assets were fully/safely available for redemption"
X Link 2022-11-11T14:47Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"On the favorable side of the ledger market-based core inflation--which is a better predictor of future inflation than regular core--has been somewhat lower. This excludes things like implied price of portfolio management fees"
X Link 2025-02-28T14:04Z 185.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now: -2.8% annualized growth in Q1. And BTW if you look at "private GDP" it would be even worse at -3.8% (my calculations based on their component details)"
X Link 2025-03-03T19:33Z 187.4K followers, 2.5M engagements
"There is a massive disconnect between the views of economists and the public on the question of whether the price level should go back down after a burst of inflation. In fact I don't know of a bigger disconnect between the views of economists and the public. Do you @bryan_caplan If prices go up 20% (which is what has happened) should policymakers try to get prices back down to where they were 92% of economists disagree with doing this. But only 10% of the public does. From Shiller's classic [----] survey. https://t.co/H8bMwNVbXh https://t.co/8XwcBzYDiS If prices go up 20% (which is what has"
X Link 2025-12-17T15:02Z 185.4K followers, 340.7K engagements
"Finally the clearest evidence that this is a new normal--rather than a weak demand job market--is that nominal wage growth has remained reasonably robust and in fact ticked up a little in December"
X Link 2026-01-09T15:03Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements
"My conclusion: No reason at all for Fed to even think of cutting rates this month (and no evidence it is thinking about it). More broadly this lends a little weight to the positive story in the GDP data and a little less to the recessionary fears from earlier jobs data"
X Link 2026-01-09T15:03Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Kevin Warsh is well above the bar on both substance and independence to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The Senate should ask tough questions about his independence & President Trump should reduce the threat to it. Hopefully that will make it clear Warsh should be confirmed"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:09Z 186.2K followers, 85.5K engagements
"I don't expect President Trump to change his deep-seated beliefs but a critical step he could take would be to help ensure that Senator Tillis' call for the "legal matter" facing Chair Powell is "fully resolved." https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-federal-reserve-nominations https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-federal-reserve-nominations"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, [----] engagements
"(Normally a President should not involve themselves in the Department of Justice but let it operate as an independent enforcement agency. In this case however it is clear that the investigation was at a minimum based on President Trump's desires and public statements.)"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, 11.1K engagements
"Warsh has a range of views that would not have led me to recommend a Democratic President nominate him as Federal Reserve Chair. I would be thrilled if he ends up conducting himself over the next four years in a way that would make a President of any party want to reappoint him"
X Link 2026-01-30T11:09Z 185.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Kevin Warsh is above the bar for the Fed. But to be even better than that he'll have to follow four rules I outlined in @TheFP: [--]. Independence [--]. Nonpartisan [--]. From critic to leader [--]. Willingness to reverse himself"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, 62.2K engagements
"3. Tim Geithner used to say "plan beats no plan." Warsh has been an incessant critic of the Fed without always saying what he would actually do differently. He'll need to make the shift to leader"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements
"4. The Fed's greatest strength is not that it always gets things right but that it error corrects & learns like it did when it waited too long but then pivoted to rapid rate hikes in [----]. Warsh will need to do the same possibly starting w/ his call to shrink the balance sheet"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:11Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements
"If Warsh follows these four rules he could be a great Fed Chair. If he doesn't he could find himself powerless just one of twelve votes on the FOMC unable to even steer his institution not to mention the broader economy. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/opinion/trump-federal-reserve-powell.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/opinion/trump-federal-reserve-powell.html"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:12Z 186.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Here is a link to full piece in The Free Press. https://www.thefp.com/p/four-rules-for-the-new-fed-chair https://www.thefp.com/p/four-rules-for-the-new-fed-chair"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:12Z 185.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I also did a conversation on this topic with @NatashaRSarin and @oren_cass in @nytopinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:14Z 186.2K followers, [----] engagements
"A conversation about Kevin Warsh (plus inevitably tariffs) with @NatashaRSarin and @oren_cass in @nytopinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/opinion/kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-trump-fed-chair.html"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:19Z 186.4K followers, 52.1K engagements
"In @nytopinion I explain the falling dollar. Although it's happening for the wrong reason it might actually be what the U.S. economy needs over the longer run to rebalance. But not necessarily politically fun in the short run"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:20Z 186.4K followers, 42.2K engagements
"Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/opinion/us-low-dollar.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/opinion/us-low-dollar.html"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:20Z 186.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Of the measures in the previous my preferred is inflation predictor is V/U is currently the loosest. My least favorite (but one that many liked pre-COVID I never did) EPOP which shows some tightness. Note [--] is not necessarily neutral just benchmarked to end of 2019"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [----] engagements
"We're firmly on the pre-COVID Beveridge curve"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements
"One Fed objective is max employment not any measure of labor market flows. We're probably a bit below it & either stable or only gradually loosening. Another objective is inflation. Underlying is about 2.5% and these measures suggest one should expect further downward pressure"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:26Z 186.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@PGunigantiAT @ErikHovenkamp @florianederer @conlon_chris @BrianCAlbrecht @arpitrage @anup_malani @julieinannap @ershov_daniel @econwags @lugaricano @KhoaVuUmn Is basically the definition of rents"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:41Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@ernietedeschi The proposal would allow trading of A's across courses at Harvard. Which warms my economist heart"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:35Z 186.4K followers, [----] engagements
"JCT dynamic score just out. Shows: [--]. Annual growth rate is [----] to [----] pp higher over ten years. (Yes less than [--] hundredths of a percent.) [--]. Tax cut costs $1.071T [--]. Conference bill is more costly and less pro-growth than House or Senate. https://www.jct.gov/publications.htmlfunc=startdown&id=5055 https://www.jct.gov/publications.htmlfunc=startdown&id=5055"
X Link 2017-12-22T21:07Z 186.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@OECD simulation finds a (small) increase in the U.S. trade deficit if all G20 countries dramatically cut/eliminated tariffs. Shows it is foolish to either blame trade deficits on unfair trade or to judge the impact of trade liberalization by the impact on the trade balance"
X Link 2018-06-06T15:48Z 163K followers, [--] engagements
"Question: We all agree people should not have to pay for high school even though it has a monetary return to them. We also all agree people should have to pay for business school especially because it has a monetary return. How should we think about college"
X Link 2019-04-04T15:18Z 176.9K followers, [---] engagements
"My wife shares our family's experiences with Vice President Biden in the Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/joe-bidens-affectionate-warmth-what-makes-him-great/586435/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/joe-bidens-affectionate-warmth-what-makes-him-great/586435/"
X Link 2019-04-04T15:23Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements
"What policy will provide relief to: a. A waiter who is losing most of his tips b. A Lyft driver who is losing many of her trips c. A person who self quarantines without pay d. Someone who was going to re-enter the job market but can't now e. Everyone else Only one: CASH"
X Link 2020-03-12T18:20Z 187.4K followers, 13.1K engagements
"You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount not 99.9% discount but 100% discount. BLS has [----] career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number. This being the Trump era you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS but it's much more likely that the models used to produce these numbers they aren't really raw data have gone haywire in a time of pandemic 3/ This being the Trump era you can't completely discount the possibility that they've gotten to the BLS but it's much more"
X Link 2020-06-05T13:12Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The loss of Emmanuel Farhi is a terrible tragedy a kind generous person who was opening up new ways to understand the macroeconomyand up until his death was working to apply them to understand and respond to the economic crisis were currently in. RIP"
X Link 2020-07-24T17:59Z 177.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The paths to victory: Biden has 11: GMPW GMP GMW GPW MPW GM GP GW MP MW PW Trump has 5: GMPW GMP GMW GPW MPW If these were all coin tosses Biden would be at 69%. (Footnote: Assuming Biden wins NV and Trump wins NC.)"
X Link 2020-11-04T12:34Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements
"I bought Gamestop a while ago. I did it to stick it to the hedge funds & financial industry. I recommend you do the same. See this for more. I would rather ruin a joke than you ruin yourself is a low fee index fund that holds everything in the mkt. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/vtsax https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/vtsax"
X Link 2021-01-27T18:09Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements
"The Recovery Act was a blend of timely & temporary measures like expanded UI and Making Work Pay (although it was not targeted--it went to 95% of workers). But it also had high speed rail universal broadband electronic medical records infrastructure clean energy etc"
X Link 2021-04-09T18:41Z 162.2K followers, [--] engagements
"In putting together the Recovery Act we scoured the campaign plans to pull out anything longer-term that could plausibly be described as temporary and included it. Thus the clean energy spending portion of the climate plan the electronic records from the health plan etc"
X Link 2021-04-09T18:41Z 162.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Here is your 3% inflation scorecard--what would need to happen for the rest of the year to get 3.0% on various measures. This is not a forecast nothing special about 3.0% but I found it useful and thought you might too"
X Link 2021-06-08T15:28Z 163K followers, [---] engagements
"The President's competition executive order is impressive & important. I expected a strong signal of his commitment to greater competition but was blown away by how detailed it was in setting out [--] specific initiatives across a wide range of agencies. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/"
X Link 2021-07-09T19:42Z 177.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Is it possible that Jay Powell just sold his $1-5m in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund directly to Senator Warren Same fund same amount roughly the same dates. Someone should look into this. https://sec.report/Senate-Stock-Disclosures/Warren/Elizabeth/8685d414-5ed8-4d2e-b246-19790e981ff6 https://sec.report/Senate-Stock-Disclosures/Warren/Elizabeth/8685d414-5ed8-4d2e-b246-19790e981ff6"
X Link 2021-10-18T23:13Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements
"This is called a THEORY because it is testable and potentially falsifiable. You can test the assumptions themselves. And you can test their implication that: inflation = money supply growth - the trend growth rate of real GDP"
X Link 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Over long periods of time & large changes the theory works. This is the growth of money supply (adjusted for real GDP growth) & inflation from 1980-2019. The dotted line is the theory's prediction. This is not the law of gravity but it is about as close as you get in economics"
X Link 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.2K followers, [---] engagements
"This is because velocity can change a lot. In particular the money supply expanded a lot in the beginning of COVID but the velocity of money plummeted so inflation was low. Note velocity has stabilized at a lower level and the quantity theory is working OK over the last year"
X Link 2022-02-07T19:14Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements
"This is a landmark proposal from President Biden a minimum tax that also applies to unrealized gainsas a prepayment against future capital gains. This should get serious consideration as a fair and efficient way to raise significant revenue. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/26/billionaire-tax-budget-biden/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/03/26/billionaire-tax-budget-biden/"
X Link 2022-03-26T20:20Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"A twitter thread on what I like about President Biden's "billionaire minimum income tax proposal" plus responses to a few objections I've heard. TL;DR: Landmark proposal to tax capital gains as they are accrued is fair efficient and raises revenue. https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-better-plan-to-tax-the-rich-unrealized-capital-gains-assets-treasury-distortion-11648497984 https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-better-plan-to-tax-the-rich-unrealized-capital-gains-assets-treasury-distortion-11648497984"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements
"This plan solves a few thorny issues: [--]. If your wealth is 80% in illiquid form you don't need to pay this. But you'll have a "deferral charge" when you eventually sell (or die) to roughly equalize the tax treatment of income from liquid and illiquid sources"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements
"1. It's not fair to treat unrealized gains symmetrically to realized gains. I strongly disagree. There may be an administrative simplicity/liquidity argument for taxing on realization but all the deeper arguments say accrual is right (if you can make it work)"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements
"2. This will create distortions around liquid vs. illiquid the timing and form of sales and other gaming opportunities. Sure it probably creates some. But a lot less than the current system. And it has some clever design to minimize them. But no tax is perfect"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements
"3. It would be have been simpler to end step-up-basis at death which would ensure these gains are eventually taxed. Not a crazy view but: (1) a tax deferred is a tax saved so even this is lower revenue and (2) is politically more vulnerable to repeal because revenue comes later"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.3K followers, [--] engagements
"4. This fosters the view that raising taxes on the super-wealthy is sufficient to fund the society you or I would want. I worry about this. It's is a good tax idea but is not remotely sufficient more is needed--and not just from the very high income. So both/and not either/or"
X Link 2022-03-29T17:35Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements
"5. SOCIAL BENEFITS TO HOUSEHOLDS. Rose much more (relative to trend) in the United States in [----] than elsewhere. The numbers for [----] are not out yet but we know they went up even more in the US and generally down elsewhere so disparity likely even larger"
X Link 2022-04-22T17:30Z 163.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Note no rebalancing for consumers in April as spending on goods rose 2.3% and spending on services rose 0.5%. Also real disposable personal income per capita broke its [--] month straight slide to rise by a minuscule amount in April"
X Link 2022-05-27T12:52Z 163.1K followers, [--] engagements
"One criticism of MMT is that it does not have testable predictions. Increasingly it seems as if it does advance two testable (and tested) hypotheses: [--]. Cutting interest rates reduces inflation [--]. Well-designed government spending increases reduces inflation"
X Link 2022-07-17T16:56Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements
"The Inflation Reduction Act is what the country needs right now--helping to address one of our biggest long-run challenges (climate change) while making progress on our biggest short-run challenge (inflation) while protecting the most vulnerable. A 🧵on inflation/fiscal aspects"
X Link 2022-07-27T23:35Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Despite the dramatic decline in incomes real personal consumption expenditures are slowing--but still roughly holding their own. Even with huge inflation in June consumers still managed to spend 0.1% more in real terms"
X Link 2022-07-29T13:29Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Student loan relief is not free. It would be paid for. Part of it would be paid for by the 87% of Americans who do not benefit but lose out from inflation. Part of it would be paid for by future spending cuts & tax increaseswith uncertainty about who will bear those costs"
X Link 2022-08-19T14:20Z 187.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Two ways to think about it: [--]. Real resources. Were at capacity now. Student loan relief would lead some people to spend more. We cant make more so others would consume less. The way that happens is inflation"
X Link 2022-08-19T14:20Z 161.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless. Doing it while going well beyond one campaign promise ($10K of student loan relief) and breaking another (all proposals paid for) is even worse"
X Link 2022-08-24T18:15Z 187.4K followers, 17.7K engagements
"The Fed's target PCE measure of inflation was lowered 0.9pp (annual rate) over the last six months by a quirk in how BEA imputes a non-market price for investment advice. Core inflation would have been 5.3% (ar) from Apr-Jul instead of the reported 4.3%. That's big. A short🧵"
X Link 2022-09-21T01:59Z 163.3K followers, [---] engagements
"The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index BEA imputes the "price" of "Portfolio management and investment advice services" based on things like fees for asset management. These effectively automatically go up/down when the stock market goes up/down"
X Link 2022-09-21T01:59Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@fcastofthemonth I reweighted the PCE measures to match the household weights not sure why that's different from your subtracting the CPI measure from the PCE measure (except CPI shelter growing slightly faster than PCE shelter). Will double check mine & think about why other differences"
X Link 2022-09-21T05:20Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Worth reading this (long) thread if youre interested in this topic. 1/ Apologies for a long thread. Why did sterling and gilts sell off so much A fiscal expansion with a credible central bank would result in no change in inflation expectations a rise in expected future interest rates and exchange rate appreciation. 1/ Apologies for a long thread. Why did sterling and gilts sell off so much A fiscal expansion with a credible central bank would result in no change in inflation expectations a rise in expected future interest rates and exchange rate appreciation"
X Link 2022-09-28T23:00Z 162.3K followers, [--] engagements
"Some real increase in personal consumption expenditures in August (+1.2% annual rate) undoing the August decline. Overall personal spending levels remain strong. Note PCE declines much less in slowdowns/recessions than business investment and housing"
X Link 2022-09-30T13:13Z 163.4K followers, [--] engagements
"These other special factors are similar in magnitude to the lags in housing in some cases possibly larger. Some are directly analogous (health insurance in the CPI is even more lagged than housing will switch from artificially raising inflation to artificially lowering it)"
X Link 2022-10-13T14:55Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements
"On balance I do expect that the core inflation rate will fall (although much more for the CPI measure than the Fed's preferred PCE measure so will see more convergence between them). I just don't expect it to fall that much"
X Link 2022-10-13T14:55Z 161.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Instead of the fiscal dominance I had feared the UK is now experiencing monetary dominance. Monetary policymakers are not keeping rates low to support a fiscal expansion instead fiscal policymakers are turning contractionary to prevent large rate rises"
X Link 2022-10-17T12:53Z 161.7K followers, [---] engagements
"A terrific important report from @JustinBloesch for @rooseveltinst. I agree with the bottom line and think an inflation target range of something like 2-3.5% makes sense for the asymmetric Phillips curve articulated in the paper plus would add the decline in the neutral rate. New report at @rooseveltinst: As the Fed tries to steer the economy back to normal what inflation rate should the Fed aim for Should it always be 2% in the future I argue that the Fed should adopt a target range for inflation of 2-3.5%. A thread: https://t.co/ltHHxBl9Oh New report at @rooseveltinst: As the Fed tries to"
X Link 2022-11-17T23:28Z 163.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Wow: the October personal saving rate was the second lowest ever recorded (data goes back to 1959). The two-month moving average was actually the lowest ever recorded and the three-month moving average was the third lowest"
X Link 2022-12-01T15:51Z 163.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The low and fall saving rate is supporting a huge divergence between stagnant real incomes and steadily rising consumption. Relative to CBO's pre-pandemic forecast* real per capita: Disposable personal income: -5% Personal consumption expenditures: +2.5%"
X Link 2022-12-01T15:51Z 163.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Stunning jobs numbers--it took me time to recover (although most of the delay in tweeting was because in a meeting). Never update too much never update too much never update too much but wow. [------] jobs. Big jump in average hours. Unemployment down to 3.4%. Strong wages"
X Link 2023-02-03T16:31Z 163.4K followers, 204.3K engagements
"I have a hard time seeing how the implied market breakeven of 2% inflation this year makes any sense. Absent a recession inflation below 3% is unlikely. And even with one inflation below 3% is far from guaranteed"
X Link 2023-02-14T14:03Z 161.5K followers, 75.8K engagements
"The economy is very overheated. We have made little if any progress on inflation. There is little if any reason to expect a large slowdown going forward. Core PCE at an annual rate: [--] month: 7.1% [--] months: 4.7% [--] months: 5.1% [--] months: 4.7%"
X Link 2023-02-24T14:14Z 163.3K followers, 787.6K engagements
"A wide range of measures of "underlying" inflation are telling the same story. [--] month annualized inflation: Overall: 4.0% Core: 4.7% Core w/ new rent: 3.4% Core ex housing and used cars: 4.5% Market core: 4.3%"
X Link 2023-02-24T14:14Z 163.3K followers, 29K engagements
"Consumer spending rose a lot in January and remains very high--about 2% above a pre-COVID forecast"
X Link 2023-02-24T15:21Z 163.3K followers, 67.4K engagements
"The good news for the sustainability of the economy and the bad news for inflation is that this consumer spending is increasingly coming from rising incomes. Given the strong employment and wage gains real disposable income has been rising"
X Link 2023-02-24T15:21Z 163.3K followers, 21.7K engagements
"After steadily improving median PCE inflation shot up again in January. it is running at a 5.4% annual rate over the last three months. Has a lot of desirable properties for a measure of underlying inflation but distorted by lagged shelter"
X Link 2023-02-24T21:58Z 163.3K followers, 25K engagements
"@hoon_k The FDIC does a lot more in a situation like this than just pay out $250000 to insured depositors. From @matt_levine https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startup-bank-had-a-startup-bank-run https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startup-bank-had-a-startup-bank-run"
X Link 2023-03-10T22:55Z 163.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@CribstoneMacro Could you buy VT or VTI They hold basically everything"
X Link 2023-04-23T15:17Z 163.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Note this is the precisely the argument/analysis one would use for Turkish inflation or a stimulus plan that gave everyone $1m checks. You wouldn't expect a linear labor market model to pick up all the inflation that would ensue"
X Link 2023-05-24T21:39Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Identities don't prove anything. But add a little structure and they can help. Real GDP growth was as fast as could be reasonably expected post-pandemic. But the economy was awash in support for nominal spending--which manifested in higher prices"
X Link 2023-05-24T21:39Z 151.4K followers, 14K engagements
"On the income side corporate profits fell for the third straight quarter and are down 2.8% over the last year. BUT this reflects a huge loss for the Fed. Taking that out profits down a little in Q1 and up 7.0% in the last quarter"
X Link 2023-05-25T13:12Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Then there is the Fed's preferred vivisection which is core services excluding housing. That bounced up in April but does not add to my worries because a lot of that is in imputed stuff (see next tweet)"
X Link 2023-05-26T13:29Z 159.5K followers, [----] engagements
"It would probably be best however if everyone looked at market-based core PCE which excludes imputed items like the price of portfolio management which is based on stock prices. Market core PCE also much better predicted by the labor market. Has improved for [--] straight months"
X Link 2023-05-26T13:29Z 159.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I think it is more likely that AI saves humans from extinction than that it kills all the humans. Many ways to imagine it helps us cure a disease or stop an asteroid fewer ways it could commandeer and redirect the physical ability to kill all of us"
X Link 2023-05-31T01:27Z 162K followers, 138.9K engagements
"This is concerning given that this is the deficit with an economy that has been below a 4% unemployment rate for more than a year. Note CBO's latest forecast (published in May) projected 18.4% of GDP revenues in [----] and a 5.9% of GDP deficit--unfortunately not looking as good"
X Link 2023-06-08T20:04Z 154.2K followers, 43.3K engagements
"Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose at about a 5% annual rate for a sixth straight month. But other measures of underlying inflation were much lower reflecting the outsized importance of shelter and used cars (again) this month. Some relief should be coming"
X Link 2023-06-13T12:47Z 154.2K followers, 186.8K engagements
"@BuffinArmor And I should add I still see the risks as asymmetric. Very unlikely we're going to end up with inflation 1%. Completely plausible it stays 4%"
X Link 2023-06-13T13:58Z 162K followers, [---] engagements
"Bit off all my nails watching the unnecessarily close cloture vote on the excellent @econjared46. He passed the key hurdle is on track to be confirmed as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers but this vote should have been 100-0 not 50-49"
X Link 2023-06-13T19:04Z 162.1K followers, 39.1K engagements
"I don't understand Chair Powell's claim that "policy hasn't been restrictive for very long". The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index reached its current level of restrictiveness over a year ago--and has eased considerably since the fall"
X Link 2023-06-28T14:48Z 154.2K followers, 141.8K engagements
"In sum just about every way monetary policy affects the economy reached its current level of tightness over a year ago. Just about everything you would expect to be affected by monetary policy (housing nonresidential structures net exports) was--but in the past"
X Link 2023-06-28T14:44Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Kathleen_Hays Yes but the FFR - inflation doesn't affect consumer spending home building exports or anything else that would affect real GDP growth or inflation. Their conduct of policy has relied very heavily on forward guidance which is missing when you just look at spot rates"
X Link 2023-06-28T15:17Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@JuliusProbst I'm not sure what "monetary restrictiveness" is. I'm just interested in what affects policy will have on housing consumer spending inflation etc. Also not interested in spot measures when the Fed was saying it would raise rates by 75bp/meeting"
X Link 2023-06-28T15:26Z 151.8K followers, [----] engagements
"In absolute terms the United States has had an impressive employment recovery. But it has been comparatively weak compared to other advanced OECD countries--24 of [--] economies have had larger increases in their employment rates for prime age (25-54) workers"
X Link 2023-06-29T15:23Z 154.2K followers, 61.8K engagements
"(Side note: If you judge the recovery by comparative metrics it's worth including this one as well. And maybe these differences are solely due to institutions/starting points but should take these seriously for GDP and inflation comparisons as well.)"
X Link 2023-06-29T14:02Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"And here are all the different numbers in one handy table"
X Link 2023-06-30T13:05Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Overall what is happening is that service price growth is gradually slowing--as was predictable and predicted given the lags in the shelter measure. And goods price growth which was unusually (and likely transitorily) high in recent months turned back down again"
X Link 2023-07-12T12:54Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The collapsing of "supercore" which excludes food energy shelter and used cars (the narrowest category BLS publishes) is even more dramatic. Annual rates: [--] month: 0.3% [--] months: 1.1% [--] months: 2.7% [--] months: 3.6%"
X Link 2023-07-13T00:14Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Or you can swap in new rents for all rents and you get the following annual rates: [--] month: -0.6% [--] months: 1.9% [--] months: 2.5% [--] months: 2.4%"
X Link 2023-07-13T00:14Z 151.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The Fed's credibility deserves a lot of credit for some of the painless disinflation we've been seeing. Both the credibility earned over decades of low inflation & reinforced by their aggressive moves against inflation. It is extremely valuable for them to keep this credibility"
X Link 2023-07-12T15:29Z 154.2K followers, [---] engagements
"95% of the commentary should be on how inflation is falling with a particularly pleasant surprise for June. But 5% of the commentary should grapple with why this fall (for core) has been much slower than was generally expected even as recently as a few months ago"
X Link 2023-07-12T15:47Z 163.4K followers, 38.3K engagements
"The statement I made that all of the non-standard underlying measures are better than headline and core is no longer true. Both median and trimmed mean are pointing to more inflation than core is (although both suffer from lagged shelter data)"
X Link 2023-07-12T17:47Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements
"Here is one of the tweets based on the erroneous data that I deleted"
X Link 2023-07-12T17:47Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"As for the NORMATIVE question I think that stabilizing inflation at 3% would be healthier than stabilizing it at 2%--provided it could be done in a credible way that maintained all the benefits we've enjoyed that stem from the Fed's credibility"
X Link 2023-07-14T18:13Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"But I have several reasons that I still don't think we're on a trajectory for inflation below 3% (and you may not think we need to be--that's a normative discussion we can separate from this positive forecasting exercise):"
X Link 2023-07-13T16:19Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"How are real wages doing Most measures show they are up since prior to the pandemic but are still 3-5% below their immediate pre-pandemic trajectory. This shows what it looks like for average hourly earnings defining the trend based on the two years pre-COVID"
X Link 2023-07-15T01:22Z 154.2K followers, 162.7K engagements
"@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 FWIW my views were roughly: Summer [----] - Spring 2022: Fed should do more Spring [----] - Feb 2023: Fed has it right & their dovish critics are mistaken Feb 2023: Revised inflation etc says they should do more. (They shifted in that direction but wisely held off due to SVB.)"
X Link 2023-07-14T22:48Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 I also thoughtand still thatthat getting inflation down to 2.0% would be painful. But that should not be our goal. And that we had a shot at an immaculate loosening in labor markets and milder increase in UR sufficient to bring inflation below 3%"
X Link 2023-07-14T23:01Z 154.2K followers, [--] engagements
"@epimetheusthaII @besttrousers @LittleKeegs0 Ive also made a lot of comments. I try to be careful but Im sure there are inconsistencies or shifts in emphasis. And many things that were wrong (eg inflation fell much less than I expected in [----] and early [----] and more than I expected lately)"
X Link 2023-07-14T23:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Not my exact probabilities but they are completely reasonable (in fact just adding up to 100% and not having any 0%'s is well ahead of the way many people think about many issues)"
X Link 2023-07-26T15:05Z [--] followers, 23.7K engagements
"This is definitely not what I thought would happen to market-based financial conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank"
X Link 2023-07-20T22:52Z 153.1K followers, 143.4K engagements
"Forecasters expect both US and Euro area inflation to converge close to target on roughly the same schedule despite the large differences now. (Note tweeting this agreeing. My expectation for both differs from this.)"
X Link 2023-07-21T03:44Z [--] followers, 14.9K engagements
"GDP growth was strong in Q2 at a 2.4% annual rate. The pattern represents a partial handover with consumption growth moderating (1.6%) while fixed investment picked up (4.6%). Volatile inventories and net exports small so better signal also about the same (PDFP was 2.3%)"
X Link 2023-07-30T08:00Z 154.2K followers, 118.4K engagements
"@callmegiorgie @WSJopinion Wal-Mart is one. It grew organically not through mergers. Efficiency has improved an enormous amounts. And those savings have been passed on to customers while margins have stayed low. Meta competing with this app might be another sometimes big can increase competition"
X Link 2023-07-27T21:40Z 161.6K followers, 73.9K engagements
"Private wages and salaries increased at a 4.1% annual rate (or 1.0%) from March to June according to the ECI that is the slowest pace since the inflationary period began and only a touch above the pre-COVID pace"
X Link 2023-07-28T16:30Z 154.2K followers, 135.8K engagements
"Core PCE inflation came in very low (albeit a touch above expectations) the second lowest pace of the inflationary period. Here are the annual rates: [--] month: 2.0% [--] months: 3.4% [--] month: 4.1% [--] months: 4.1%"
X Link 2023-07-28T13:10Z 151.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Finally finally headline. Has basically been at target (2.5% annual rate over [--] months) but no one would argue for taking that too seriously as a guide to the future because that is a result of the rapid decline in energy prices something that will not continue forever"
X Link 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Here are annual rates for all the numbers at various horizons. I'll post the Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure later when we get trimmed mean and core"
X Link 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure was 3.4% in June down from 4.0% in May. Based on [--] different measures X [--] different periods (excludes [--] month) so [--] total. Corresponds to 3-month core 12-month core services ex housing and 3-month trimmed mean"
X Link 2023-07-30T08:20Z 154.2K followers, 146.5K engagements
"@paulkrugman Yes of course that means using forecasts. And those dont have a great track record either"
X Link 2023-07-28T21:34Z 161.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Rough view of what the Fed should do this year based on core PCE in 2023-H2: [--]. Above 3.5%: Hike more than once. [--]. At 3.5%: Hike once. [--]. Below 3.5% & UR 4%: No more hikes. [--]. Below 3.5% & UR 4%: Cut rates"
X Link 2023-07-29T15:52Z 163.1K followers, 153.5K engagements
"This is roughly consistent with the reaction function implicit in the June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (note full-year core PCE of 3.9% means 3.5% in H2). So to the degree real activity and inflation deviate from what they expected they should react accordingly"
X Link 2023-07-29T15:52Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@KAErdmann This is the next six months or so. If core inflation is below 3% then sometime early next year would start cutting"
X Link 2023-07-29T22:13Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"The JOLTS data are consistent with further immaculate cooling of the labor market. Openings were roughly unchanged but the quits rate fell back to 2.4% tied for the cycle low"
X Link 2023-08-06T02:25Z 151.4K followers, 110.6K engagements
"Productivity increased at a 3.7% annual rate in 2023-Q2. That's too small a unit of time to look at this volatile series. Over the last year it is up at a 1.3% annual rate"
X Link 2023-08-03T19:05Z 154.2K followers, 29.2K engagements
"Today's yield curve steepening is a [---] standard deviation event. Very rare to see something of this magnitude"
X Link 2023-08-03T16:05Z 163.1K followers, 386.7K engagements
"Today's steepening of the yield curve is 10bp. This is on top of more over the last two days so 21bp cumulative over three days--which is a [--] standard deviation event. Even more unusual than just today"
X Link 2023-08-03T16:22Z 154.2K followers, 22.4K engagements
"@arnoblalam CDS which are a direct measure of default risk not up. And started pre-Fitch. And hard to imagine market still digesting it more than [--] hours later. So dont think its that"
X Link 2023-08-03T17:02Z 152.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@Arbitrage_econs The increase was all in the real rate not the breakeven for inflation"
X Link 2023-08-03T22:34Z 163.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market continues to slow w/ 187K jobs in July (and downward revisions for June)--a healthy pace but together with June a step down from the 300K pace earlier this year. A decline in hours contributed more to the slowing. At the same time wage growth picked up"
X Link 2023-08-06T02:25Z 154.2K followers, 37.3K engagements
"@MichaelRStrain We were creating 190K jobs per month in the year before COVID. A soft landing is inflation returning to/near target w/o recession. I continue to think the odds are against that. But if sustained core PCE 3% I will call it a soft landing even if job growth is 175K or more"
X Link 2023-08-04T18:08Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@MichaelRStrain @MarcGoldwein If you have a quadratic loss function (which a lot of models of Fed policy have) then lowering inflation from 4.8% to 4.0% is 6X as valuable as lowering it from 2.8% to 2.0%. (And that is assuming 2.0% is optimal which I don't think.)"
X Link 2023-08-04T19:04Z 154.2K followers, [---] engagements
"On Thursday the headline inflation measure will increase from 3.0% to something like 3.2%. The takeaways will be: (1) you should pay less attention to 12-month measures & (2) you should pay less attention to headline (which includes volatile food and energy)"
X Link 2023-08-08T19:22Z 154.2K followers, 62.6K engagements
"@NickRoussanov @JohnHCochrane @Cessnadriver50 Here are RMSE errors for predicting year-ahead inflation based on various inflation concepts. Basically all the core-like measures are similarly good and the overall ones are meaningfully worse"
X Link 2023-08-09T15:42Z 151.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The CPI came in basically just as expected--the second unambiguously good month in a row (following a few months that most likely should be interpreted as improvements as well). Core CPI at an annual rate: [--] month: 1.9% [--] months: 3.1% [--] months: 4.1% [--] months: 4.7%"
X Link 2023-08-10T12:50Z 154.2K followers, 111.9K engagements
"Overall real average hourly earnings (both private and production and non-supervisory which excludes managers) continue to rise. But they are 4% and 3% below their immediate pre-pandemic trend respectively"
X Link 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Aug is likely to see an increase in headline m/m inflation because of gas prices. Core forecasts vary. Over coming months [--] big shifts likely for CPI: Shelter: Likely to slow further Medical serves: Will pick up (in CPI not PCE) Goods: Likely higher than volatile dip in July"
X Link 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, 29.9K engagements
"Overall assuming August is relatively moderate as well there is no reason for the Fed to raise rates at their September meeting. I outlined my views on this earlier. IF some of the good news proves transitory however they'll need to go back & do more"
X Link 2023-08-10T12:51Z 154.2K followers, 14.3K engagements
"The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure for July is 2.5% down from 2.8% last month. This measure has been plunging over the last several months"
X Link 2023-08-10T17:08Z 151.1K followers, 30K engagements
"It also incorporates the median and trimmed mean CPI estimated by the Cleveland Fed both of which were down and/or relatively low in July"
X Link 2023-08-10T17:08Z 151.3K followers, [---] engagements
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