# ![@jakeallen3 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2760663585.png) @jakeallen3 Jake Allen

Jake Allen posts on X about $iren, business, debt, ai the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2760663585/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +203%
- [--] Month [------] +26%
- [--] Months [-------] -17%
- [--] Year [-------] +3,611%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2760663585/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +14%
- [--] Month [--] +132%
- [--] Months [---] +28%
- [--] Year [---] +460%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2760663585/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +2.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.20%
- [--] Months [-----] +54%
- [--] Year [-----] +310%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2760663585/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2760663585/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  35.9% [stocks](/list/stocks)  27.35% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  17.09% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  10.26% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  2.56% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.85% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.85% [countries](/list/countries)  0.85%

**Social topic influence**
[$iren](/topic/$iren) #366, [business](/topic/business) 8.55%, [debt](/topic/debt) 6.84%, [ai](/topic/ai) 5.98%, [center](/topic/center) 5.98%, [company](/topic/company) 5.98%, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 5.98%, [$stub](/topic/$stub) #3, [$maps](/topic/$maps) #12, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4.27%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jackson_jo96163](/creator/undefined) [@jindacaninvest](/creator/undefined) [@jason](/creator/undefined) [@tedhzhang](/creator/undefined) [@tgordon67](/creator/undefined) [@taobanker](/creator/undefined) [@telehinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@troyjfar](/creator/undefined) [@hypertechinvest](/creator/undefined) [@seanjames](/creator/undefined) [@umbisam](/creator/undefined) [@rapisfunn](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@cupofcoffeecap](/creator/undefined) [@jacksonjo96163](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@chamath](/creator/undefined) [@princetonheavy](/creator/undefined) [@litigiousdulce](/creator/undefined) [@jaslefebvre](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)](/topic/$stub) [MAPS (MAPS)](/topic/$maps) [Grab Holdings Limited Class A Ordinary Shares (GRAB)](/topic/$grab) [DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN)](/topic/$docn) [WEX (WEX)](/topic/$wex) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)](/topic/$cde) [Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)](/topic/$lyv) [Wise (WISE)](/topic/$wise) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [ArcelorMittal (MT)](/topic/$mt)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$STUB: Dominant capital-light marketplace priced like dying Vivid $SEAT Catalysts: World Cup DOJ vs $LYV primary market entry continued market share gains driven by scale unit-economic dominance relative to peers. Full draft memo below 👇 Interested in feedback and counter-arguments especially from those familiar with $LYV $SEAT $EVD https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fWw9hRcYi3phQOZI3QWR-flnFY3eQZs22WnscRGuHdg/editusp=drivesde"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019607206233031081)  2026-02-06T03:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$STUB is trading at 7x EV/2026 EBITDA on the lowest sell-side estimate and 3x [----] consensus. Estimated 30%+ growth 40% incremental margins and 120% EBITDA/FCF conversion through [----]. We only need them to hit half of sell-side Down 56% from a 20x oversubscribed IPO five months ago. Investors panicked over withheld Q4 guidance and temporary headwinds: [----] FCF hit by vendor payment timing 8-10% revenue hit from all-in pricing regulations in Q3 and lapping Taylor Swift (where StubHub sold 60% of resale volume). The market thinks ramping of investment is irrational given no apparent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021670079604113701)  2026-02-11T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MAPS $3 (170% upside to 8.25x EV/EBITDA TTM 11x EV/FCF TTM) not to mention their customers if at 0% margins go to 15% (280E) and the lowest-cost producers (hemp) representing 50% of the "legal" market is set to be wiped out in a year and the only quick way to pivot is to get into dispensaries and customers eyes (can't advertise on Google + $MAPS has supplier marketplace). Capital-light been growing customers / profits on slightly down revenue while competitors have been dying (Leafly) customers are struggling. 70% market-share Nasdaq-listed. Unable to effectively monetize as a marketplace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2001377138851602764)  2025-12-17T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"DHERs Foodpanda plotting comeback 😈😂 you gotta check Delivery Hero out $DHER 0.4x [----] sales 19% revenue growth MRQ 7.5x [----] aEBITDA - SBC 12.2B GMV MRQ ($64B GMV in 2026) 0.13x GMV $GRAB 5.7x [----] sales 22% revenue growth MRQ 49x [----] aEBITDA - SBC $5.8B GMV MRQ ($26B GMV in 2026) 0.90x GMV Some notes I had: Grab drove 5.5% incremental EBITDA margins on GMV this year and consensus expects 7% in [----]. DHER drove 30% incremental margins on GMV this year suggesting much more room to improve monetization as 50% of their GMV is from companies where they havent focused on profitability."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2003949278897517031)  2025-12-24T22:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"THE DOJ CATALYST DOJ + [--] states filed antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation/Ticketmaster in May [----]. Trial: March [----]. The market treats this as background noisewe view it as a potential inflection point. CORE ALLEGATIONS Live Nation allegedly uses control over venues and concert promotion to coerce exclusive Ticketmaster contracts. Venues choosing competitors allegedly lose LN-promoted tours. Data: NBA/NHL arenas that switched away from TM lost average of [--] LN shows/year; arenas switching TO TM gained 10+ concerts annually. Ticketmaster's secondary strategy relies on coercive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154563769499923)  2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackson_jo96163 Ex-Swift GMS growth 25.3% T9M but agree was just trying to make sense of / bridge to the streets estimate. My model is nowhere near that optimistic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019256091389964534)  2026-02-05T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Id be loving SH 😂 Have you ever seen the sell side be off 50% on a relatively high publicity IPO seems like itd be hard to be off this much with alternative data Already cut EBITDA 17% from IPO projections 980M FCF 2026E - 490M FCF 3.5B MC gives 7x FCF 560M net debt EOY [--] interest expense 30M vs 60M float interest income 1.69B [----] - 845M [----] 4x FCF net-cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019504966956658810)  2026-02-05T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"i've read it in my view hinges on random speculation based on some tiny disclosures he thinks should be more detailed. could have governance risks given founder related company lends to ticket sellers used to sell some tickets credit card ticket programs could be bad etc. then admits those items are probably not rampant talks about all in pricing as a huge threat not realizing it already happened. mentions Swift as boosting recent growth not realizing it's been a tailwind since Q2 [----]. he closed his short great technical trade but no real substance there on the financials market participants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019536593229435110)  2026-02-05T22:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Your understanding and what I said arent mutually exclusive. I think its implicit that all-in pricing change contributed at least in part to decision to lower take-rates in [----] to help improve growth given the hit to revenue. Others are struggling at 22.1% Vivid 24% TicketMaster 32% SeatGeek and price-comparing is now much easier. Voluntarily subsidizing to take market share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020238874270748780)  2026-02-07T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JindaCanInvest https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e https://ir.weedmaps.com/static-files/fba91ca7-be10-46e5-bb43-1198c6041e4e"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020246378711265683)  2026-02-07T21:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks Ill check it out. Agree $SEAT is dead. Theyre hitting 6x net debt to ebitda on -30% volume despite a LfL (adj. for take take) 12.5x ROAS vs StubHub expanding margins at 9.5x. Direct traffic & app advantage for SH is immense and scale is insurmountable imo. Vivid relied on drip pricing much more and also hurt SH brand as they were forced to drip price to stay competive on new user CAC I see Seatgeek resale as structurally challenged too and believe TM resale will not grow from here Yeah agree thesis is overcomplicated wanted to address misunderstandings in the durability of resale. Many"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020272913858064580)  2026-02-07T23:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@taobanker $STUB 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020399251671625806)  2026-02-08T07:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JindaCanInvest Francis trying to buy it out again cant have his CFO incentivized to leave (with the accellerated comp) in middle of a complex levered buyout. Not related to self dealing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020742903279018407)  2026-02-09T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TeleHInvesting No youre clear 😂 read it as monthly of course theyre not doing that many Google searches for lifemd back at ATH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021283992171856123)  2026-02-10T18:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Top Pick for [----] 🧵 StubHub $STUB: The Broken IPO of a Global Duopoly StubHub is a global duopoly asset trading at a distressed multiple because of accounting noise a temporary growth lull and post-IPO chaos. The market is pricing it in-line with declining Vivid Seats when it is actually consolidating its competitors out of existence and stands as the sole player with the potential to create a unified dominant global live-events platform. The setup: Eric Baker founded StubHub in [----] was ousted started Viagogo and in February [----] was able purchase StubHub from eBayreuniting with his"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019154544815669276)  2026-02-04T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Schrdingers Trainium 📦🐈 Nobody actually knows the split so it exists as 100% Alchip and 100% Marvell Collapses when you back into implied Trainium CapEx and compare it to AIChips most bullish revenue forecast (I think Marvell will capture about 70% of the revenue. Alchip seems to have won the main T3 die with thinner service margins. Marvell the higher volume inference T3 Lite and probably the connectivity layer for T3) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019613531293864305"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019613531293864305)  2026-02-06T03:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TeleHInvesting Are these LFMD #s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021276393053503983)  2026-02-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TroyJFar $LFMD another potential candidate Very curious what scale Ro is at. Very few scaled players who can market nationwide best cash pay rates + dr availability / oversight + insurance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021713936068829563)  2026-02-11T22:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Check this out half the growth but valuee and margin expansion $DHER 63B GMV [--] 10B EV 1.9% aEBITDA margin 215M SBC 9.5x EV/EBITDA-SBC [--] $10B EV 10% rev growth mid term $GRAB $16.6B GMV [--] $12.5B EV 240M SBC 2.8% aEBITDA margin 20% rev growth mid term Rumours are JPM is shopping DHERs Korea biz (33% of revenue) for 4.9B-5.6B (10x op profit) Would leave them at 5B EV on 42B in GMV still at a scale and market share only rivaled by $UBER $DASH. Outside of Korea theyve grown 20% for years despite some quite unfortunate circumstances (Coupang spent billions to attack their Korea business Spain /"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021806458824708379)  2026-02-12T04:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Maybe to get a better deal or got wind the board or shareholders would reject it Shades of grey. Why wait until they have 62M of cash to make an offer sandbag EBITDA guidance. Imply $MAPS faces significant risk and needs investment flexibility even though we have no use for 63M cash. They could buyback 100% of ADV for [---] days without touching FCF - if they wanted the stock to be up it would be Its classic retrading. Use high-vote control (plus TRA poison pill) to block other bidders. Were rolling 100% but its too risky for you. Cap upside at [----] well below CEO options at $3-5 withdraw offer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2011314462465073248)  2026-01-14T05:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Closed most of my $DOCN +125% in [--] months Love the management brand product - have no doubt they beat growth consensus this year. Extremely impressive turnaround speed but valuation getting extended with SBC still at 50% of FCF and see better opportunities like $STUB Looking at starting a new position in $DOCN $AMD just partnered with them to exclusively run their AI Developer Cloud. They only have 3-5% of revenues related to AI but thats growing at 160% yoy Earnings grown pretty consistently at 30% CAGR over past [--] years. Trading at https://t.co/0dtu4mgkvP Looking at starting a new position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2015867027508937003)  2026-01-26T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SFarringtonBKC $STUB $MAPS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2016932342208553279)  2026-01-29T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Anyone watching $MAPS - Management Buyout Imminent Round II CFO (Susan Echard) just moved to a full-time role. Performance grants vest automatically upon a change in control unless the acquiring entity is 15% owned by the current CEO. Two new independent directors were appointed this week. Brent Cox: Founder of Subtext/Inception financier specializing in cannabis. Spent [--] years at Yucaipa (Ron Burkles firm) complex leveraged buyouts of distressed retail. Famously sued the MedMen founders for self-dealing. Leveraged Finance background Harry DeMott: Partner / Co-Founder at Raptor Ventures (Jim"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2019830847940214951)  2026-02-06T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MAPS customers - only legal regulated dispensaries - were dying. Vast majority unprofitable losing share to hemp and illicit If rescheduling happens MAPS customer's profitability 3x's+ overnight just on tax-savings before 60% of competitors (hemp) go away in November. And it's 60% that are the highest-margin fastest-growing structurally advantaged most abundant (no fixed opex capex just sell in smoke shops / gas stations) You just don't have that kind of regulatory change + supply shock without advertising leader benefiting. It is bewildering how it's down vs $MSOS has held up very strong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2011262812580938175)  2026-01-14T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🤝 send volume retention charts are beautiful. The return on CAC is an absolute money printer assuming retention curves donmt rapidly degrade I dont think market is concerned with $WISE specifically. The broader fear is that as neobanks and wallets take share digital remittance becomes a commoditized loss-leader / break-even for retention. If cash payout network and regulatory moat eventually fade as local banks modernize it becomes no different than $WU with durability driven by brand / convenience. If you cant put a terminal multiple on pure transfer they must successfully invest to emerge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2020733964311236765)  2026-02-09T05:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@chamath Funny how $META potentially has made more money with newer $NVDA GPUs than the rest of the field combined. Hard to explain their avg price per ad growth otherwise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2021839277328658436)  2026-02-12T06:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Oh by the way earning 40% plus returns on equity despite while extremely overcapitalized in a trough of a sector where their customers and competitors are dying. If rescheduling goes through their customers go from paying 75-80% tax rates to 22-25% and brands can then deduct marketing. 43% market share paying 95%+ free lsitings 170M rev vs 35B total legal sales. Currently everyone is taxed on gross profit and cannabis investors do not realize dispensaries have to have 75%+ GMs to survive because the vertically integrated pubcos can turn SG&A into COGS. 3x EV to FCF 2x EV/EBITDA SBC minimal."  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/2022401954664616318)  2026-02-13T20:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Jason You probably know this but Justin Kans podcast is pretty new https://youtube.com/channel/UCfRtwc6K_VU9N4OjNnU2P7g https://youtube.com/channel/UCfRtwc6K_VU9N4OjNnU2P7g"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1413228388353990661)  2021-07-08T20:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@princetonheavy @litigious_dulce @jas_lefebvre GLXY spent 11M/MW and got 2M EBITDA/MW. They hire everything out and data center developers charge a huge premium rn so IREN buildout costs should be meaningfully cheaper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923841347565265171)  2025-05-17T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Looking to size up some new positions after selling $LFMD $CDE $BCBN $TTEC. Now overly concentrated in $IREN $GLASF $MT. Best ideas below % is modeled median IRR over 3/5 years $BOL.PA: 37.5% - stable family ran great capital allocation cheap due to cross share holding complexity. BMO sees 420% upside for Bollor. David Rosen sees 200-600% upside for $VIV.PA which Im not as familiar with and will check out $VTY.L: 33.75% - lots of upside with limited downside. partnership building model historically earned 40% ROCE. Government policy switching from headwind to tailwind $TEVA: 19.5% - Drucks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927152801806688395)  2025-05-27T00:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@HyperTechInvest @Sean__James Obviously thats why I said adjusted which many many companies use to illustrate the underlying cash generative ability of the business The growth capex isnt just lighting $ on fire you need to distinguish from maintenance and growth in a rapid growth company like this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939023352040927474)  2025-06-28T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Umbisam Long $IREN short $CRWV 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942066995303686145)  2025-07-07T03:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TedHZhang Pretty sure its the episode on Norges Bank podcast In Good Company. Great listen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1980350003957874870)  2025-10-20T19:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"How to snapchat on school wifi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/723516179025797120)  2016-04-22T14:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack You should check out $WEX would love to hear your thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1971401919454429604)  2025-09-26T02:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndrewYang Can you post source Genuinely interested"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1261085242594598917)  2020-05-15T00:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@rapisfunn Is it okay to name a white kid Kanye 😂 Maybe have him go by something else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1379978796338704384)  2021-04-08T02:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@hedieddddd @rapisfunn 😂😂😂😂 youre right I guess I cant call him Ye"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1380016464430784513)  2021-04-08T04:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@davidsettle @EEEFamily5 @stephsmithio I think you mean the present value of $63B in [----] is now $135B not trillion. Those companies were not nearly that big. Apples $2T today wouldve been $936B in [----] which shows how big todays top companies are compared to back then even adjusted for inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1389419453448916997)  2021-05-04T03:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Colton29101923 @JonErlichman https://youtu.be/ef69BUlge-A https://youtu.be/ef69BUlge-A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1404506480133431296)  2021-06-14T18:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@cdixon When Jack Dorsey said "My one wish is for Twitter Inc to be the most transparent company in the world.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1465880507045003266)  2021-12-01T03:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheMindOfHY She mad 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1480986898550120451)  2022-01-11T19:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Jason It sounds crazy but we need to legalize every drug. Humans will not stop doing things because they are illegal and some point it needs to become about harm prevention and preserving/increasing well-being. Bonus effect of defunding criminals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1503924023746564098)  2022-03-16T02:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Jason girls / women"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1507874270961098757)  2022-03-27T00:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@kylerwoodworth @2596419_266941 @zerohedge Usually even when the 3mo inverts it takes a year for it to happen. This is a silly idea but what if the 3mo inverting in [----] was the sign for the upcoming one or maybe it inverts soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1509989770985984003)  2022-04-01T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@hubermanlab Probably something to do with amylase in your saliva killing bacteria; dry mouths typically lead to increased bad bacterial growth and sometimes infection / cavities. Skin also exposed to sun and less moisture probably has something to do with it. Kids skin dont always scar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1588662512592908288)  2022-11-04T22:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DV_Situations This is hilarious. Sitting in my office comping this obscure REITs properties. Oh look they own a building in Nashville looks up the address looks across the street they own the building 😂 that I stare at often. Time for some investigative dd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1831052589590585709)  2024-09-03T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@nope_its_lily Anyone would take your side of this. If someone believes SPY will fall 36% by then they could put on a put spread 30th Apr [----] 390/375 @ $0.33 and make 44x if correct not 1x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1853314628719153597)  2024-11-04T05:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@profplum99 Fixed it for ya 🤪😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1864465570722160670)  2024-12-05T00:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Jack_Raines 6% margins on a grossly overinflated revenue due to the inefficiency of our healthcare system (23% stock price CAGR 26% revenue CAGR). Sure maybe its more the healthcare providers than the insurers but theyre interrelated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864826078587506857)  2024-12-06T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"4B in adjusted net debt per share is $10/share basically company trading around 10x EV/FCF which seems right for a company who has destroyed $11 in book value per share since [----] and still has 6.3B in goodwill and intangibles that may have to be written down I like seeing the rapid debt pay-down (3BN since [----] which should accrue to equity if the business and earnings are sustainable). Any growth in topline here has very high incremental margins. Assuming they continue at this recent pace of 400M or $1/shr and stop taking unusual losses they will reduce debt to 4.4B by end of [----] with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1874538630259085383)  2025-01-01T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I like using this Adjusted Shareholder Yield = (Buybacks + Debt Paydown + Free Cash Flow + NPV of Projected Growth Capex Earnings) / Enterprise Value Using trailing 5Y return on growth capex (incremental earnings or incremental FCF / growth capex) to estimate the earnings stream the years growth capex will produce discounted to the companies WACC Has to be adjusted for a company with diminishing or volatile returns on growth capex. Led me to stay invested in certain high PE tech names"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1876789602238792024)  2025-01-08T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Lets go S/o Bob Robotti My LXU Notes [---] enterprise value [---] market cap [---] cash [---] debt BVPS bottomed late [--] up $2.25/shr since despite poor environment Production TTM 500k AN & Nitric Acid ($310) 300k ammonia ($387 - pricing strong) 500k UAN ($222 - much higher now) Ramping up incremental 75k tons of UAN and 5k-10k incremental AN (adds 10M EBIDTA). Expect EBIDTA to normalize at 170M (including the incremental production) and grow to 300M by end of [----] with projects creating additional 130M of EBIDTA. Peak earnings power of 150M+ (200M in [----] but that was due to Ukraine). CFI bought"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877156256059662637)  2025-01-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@dulcezorro @irbezek 40% of Gen Z are 21+ so assuming their spend grows 2.5x to 7.83B plus more as they buy higher quality products. Id be curious to see how previous generations spend ramped around that age - to parse out what is actually from decreased consumption vs cheaper products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1878210992561127518)  2025-01-11T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"IREN may do 600M+ of FWD FCF at 52EH from bitcoin mining (300M after depreciation). They wont have to replace these new miners for years. Have you seen anything on where this will be reinvested Mining AI/HPC power infrastructure distributions debt reduction buybacks. I understand wanting the optionality & trust @danroberts0101 to make the highest-return decision but I believe this is a big question of the market @Agrippa_Inv @Umbisam"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1897342482574115078)  2025-03-05T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I agree the ATM is a show of capital Dan mentioned they and the hyperscalars both want $IREN want to retain some ownership (thus likely partially fund development) I think they have been astute in not signing a premature deal & if they have one Im sure the hyperscalar wants them to stay quiet. Shortages have continued to tighten IREN is proving their buildout capabilities and hyperscalar preferred specifications have been changing. Dan said the sites have had offers at many many multiples of development cost. Demand is clearly there & theyve said its picked up greatly this year as we get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897349818663489764)  2025-03-05T18:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Even if they did suffer another huge hit every year its a 12.5% earnings yield. They are trading at half the valuation of peers like Persimmons who have negative growth & lower margins than $VTY. CEO has perhaps the greatest track record in UK homebuilding. Whats more likely - big [--] involved in accounting fraud partnerships business is compromised by the difficulties related to traditional homebuilding - or that margins will revert as they wind down their legacy business and return capital without taking book losses. Is [--] years of 40% returns on capital enough to prove the partnerships model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897369742425444718)  2025-03-05T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yep its so correlated to BTC in the short-term but the fundamental risk there is BTC falls and network difficulty falls less A bear market in BTC always leads to rationalizations & reduction in network difficulty. $IREN has the lowest cash cost by a mile with mostly new machines so should be somewhat shielded at least relatively. Others tend to amplify their cyclicality by holding BTC and are then forced to dilute at the worst times It looks like difficulty has outpaced price but chart doesnt take into account the technology improvements in the machines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897469476020404620)  2025-03-06T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$IREN current market conditions and [--] EH should yield 500M FCF 2.75GW & infrastructure roughly should be worth 900M (325k/MW). This is access to some of the cheapest renewable energy in the world near major population area (DFW) with quick time to power Assigning value to the cash flows from miners and GPUs in a scenario where difficulty rises & BTC is flat (it should be much more than this): 500M / 400M / 300M / 200M / 100M 1.4B market cap 1.25B enterprise value (140M net cash) Fwd 5-Yr Bear Case Cash Flows: 1.5B (would be untaxed at this level due to depreciation) Infrastructure Value:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902153523363565639)  2025-03-19T00:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Average data center colocation rent = 160/kwh/mo * [-----] kwh * [--] months = $96M likely 50% margins Liquid cooled & [---] kwh rack density means it should be higher just being conservative Single site tenant maybe around 1.5M/MW * [--] MW = 75M with much higher margins. $GLXY just got $2.25M/MW from Coreweave but I have no idea how they pulled that off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1906781447458816306)  2025-03-31T18:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Added to $IREN at [----] today heres why: They did 35M hardware profit from BTC mining in March with 30.3EH [--] EH installed within a few months / [----] EH * 35M = 60M monthly gross profit 720M annualized + 26M current GPU leasing + 50M Horizon lease = 800M gross profit - 50M SG&A 750M fwd EBITDA at current Bitcoin prices - will be reinvested into building out / retrofitting data centers with high returns on equity Depreciation is their biggest expense (310M) but allows them to tax-efficiently reinvest and their miners are basically new will not need to be replaced for [--] years Assets at EOY 910MW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912262558125625606)  2025-04-15T21:51Z [----] followers, 46.3K engagements


"Thanks I was just trying to say next year it will be somewhere around there if current conditions hold. See modeled fwd-4 year scenarios below: Bear - Difficulty rises 50% yearly price only rises 10% - Total free cash flow over [--] years: 1.425B - This would be the worst conditions ever seen for a bitcoin mining business. For difficulty to rise 50% yearly it would cost roughly 13.5B of capex from bitcoin miners then 20.2B then 30.3B. I doubt this is possible Base - Difficulty rises mostly in-line with price - 2.2B free cash flow Historical Norm - Long-term average (40% price vs 35% difficulty)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912334327129718825)  2025-04-16T02:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@penny_ether Yes that capex is way off thank you 👍🏻 still illustrates the capital intensity of 50% difficulty CAGR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1912336936078905589)  2025-04-16T02:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"NOTE - Obviously just annualizing March is not going to be accurate but the upside is 0% attributable to the mining cashflows as stated at the end of my post - and while they last can be reinvested to catalyze their data center buildout and could help it screen better Insitutional buying - HansaInvest Bit Capital GMBH Morgan Stanley Robert Citrone Paul Tudor Jones Everest Hill Group Daniel Sundheim Bank of Canada Arrowstreet Vident IMC Chicago and many more - of course many of these are likely hedged or just in it for a trade such as Citadel Jane St DE Shaw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1912346122560958785)  2025-04-16T03:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Hey Frans did you give this any thought Why announce stopping Bitcoin mining expansion when you had been leveraging that option for negotiation (give us better economics or well just install more miners) Either data center rent has just gotten to the point where its overwhelmingly more attractive than mining or theyre far enough into negotiations that they no longer need that leverage or they want to show the customers that theyre entirely focused on delivering AI data centers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1912911472289624351)  2025-04-17T16:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dan realizes GPU hodling is not optimal. Its not very profitable for others either and low prices = lower supply. I think the prospect for next gen looks better with very limited supply of liquid-cooled high rack density capacity using renewable cheap energy I think breaking even (or losing money on a cost of capital basis) on their AI cloud service is okay given that they are a data center developer in the early-stages of AI compute and needed experience building these systems which theyve done very well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1912978620705800623)  2025-04-17T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CDE 2B fwd revenue if gold falls 10% & silver stays at current levels and they meet cost & production guidance again - 440M gold mining costs 1100/oz - 360M silver mining costs 18/oz - 140M sustaining capex - 60M growth capex - 70M growth capex amortized - 45M G&A - 27M interest (535M debt at 5.125%) 858M EBDTA - 75M depreciation & amortization - 200M taxes 590M rough earnings 6.2x PE large discount to sector average 130M growth investments (12% trailing ROIC) @Seawolfcap @VD718 is this back of napkin math reasonable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914742939500036108)  2025-04-22T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Nobody should care about IR 😂 its always a bad sign when management is super involved communicating to the market Stock stays low we dont get diluted and get to buy more. As long as AI demand holds the value creation is inevitable. The only benefit of a higher market cap could be showing more capital to help get a large deal done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1915507491317653700)  2025-04-24T20:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"There are plenty of examples Enron Nikola etc. This is a principal Ive taken from Tom Gayner too much IR is a red flag Putting effort into communicating with the often irrational market can take away from focus on the business and if they get too wrapped up in what the vocal shareholders want it may not be helpful to long-term value creation probably especially in this sector dominated by retail speculators I think IREN has done a fine job with IR they announce goals they can meet give a monthly update and outline their strategy on a site-by-site basis. They may have even over-communicated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1915562320228438487)  2025-04-25T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Im not saying overcommunicating is causal its just a red flag that the substance (future cash flows) is lacking. Theyve done plenty of podcasts and been pretty open about strategies Being well known to retail wont move the needle on a 2GW deal. Theyve never done a large lease so throwing models out there is premature. EQIX would have the deal done because of their ops and history of 100s of closed deals not because they communicate with retail well. Anyway the sites not energized till April so idk why so many make this a big deal Theyve done accretive dilution in the past but if their mining"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1915838698576662625)  2025-04-25T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is exactly what Im saying - they shouldve never mentioned a deal before Horizon an example where too much communication backfired. This is young company in the quickest changing sector probably ever they cant and shouldnt be expected to map out everything clearly They switched from distributions because they were planning to sell Sweetwater now they have to prep it and build Horizon which is reasonable and completely changed their capital reqs. Its plausible after Horizon because theyve proven they can build at massive scale quickly control costs and they have the scarcest asset in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1915951768971759849)  2025-04-26T02:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Theyll be back under BV soon not from lower stock price but from cash flows & reinvesting. Soon 200M+ earnings run-rate roughly 500M in reinvestment yearly when you add back depreciation. 300-350M Horizon will be worth 500M+ though not sure if theyll account it at market value Im sure theyre under market BV. Sweetwater Childress are accounted at cost when you take Cushman Wakefields average price per acre for powered land 1.6M * (1800 Sweetwater + [---] Childress) = 3.55B but Cushman also says sites with cheap energy scale renewable time to energization earn a premium. Potentially worth up to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1923049338000769147)  2025-05-15T16:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity Overhang from private equity seller pressuring sp. SBC (15% of rev guiding towards high single digit) China write-down heavy R&D make NI super volatile. Great business Druckenmiller also bought only around 2% position. If he sizes up so will I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1928198480524189840)  2025-05-29T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Rough thesis on new position $WEX a fleet mgmt corporate payments and health savings business. Took starter position this week around $131. Would love to hear some pushback or see if Im missing something 8x fwd adjusted EPS 4.75x EV/EBITDA TTM Basically WEX is down because of 1) lower gas prices and 2) the market is misperceiving them as a business without pricing power and growth viewing CPAYs higher ROIC as WEX underperforming. In reality WEX management has been focused on taking market share prioritizing customer acquisition & growth over short-term profitability. This is rational as they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930694363857797472)  2025-06-05T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If it does go through 20% added tax on 50% US take earnings down rough 10%. [----] consensus [--] turns into [----] - 7.13x FWD PE cheaper than a week ago. Now at roughly BV. What if they can pass half of it through to the litigation sellers find tax loopholes or if the bill only raise taxes 10% in the end Could have down 5% but price down 15%. Everyone who does US litigation funding will be hurt and most dont have the operating scale of Burford"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1935064809915170946)  2025-06-17T19:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looking at starting a new position in $DOCN $AMD just partnered with them to exclusively run their AI Developer Cloud. They only have 3-5% of revenues related to AI but thats growing at 160% yoy Earnings grown pretty consistently at 30% CAGR over past [--] years. Trading at 2.5x FWD sales (vs 7x for comparables) & 8.5x FWD EV / aEBITDA. EV / GP / Growth = .40 FWD vs 0.88x software average For every $1 of CAC they earn $2.2 of new ARR up from $1.4 last year - in top [--] of public software companies companies. Their margins are very strong causing payback periods [--] months and organic net dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935135397446828052)  2025-06-18T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"No I love it. Havent found anyone in my network to discuss $DOCN with - probably a good sign under followed What gives me confidence is growth in large customers consistently accelerating crazy discount to peers and the investment day with the CTO CEO CRO is really impressive. New product innovation is great but more importantly some obvious stuff previous mgmt. neglected & addressing all churn reasons. Their SMB funnel is world class net dollar churn now 0%. Now theyre gonna focus on migrating enterprise customers seems to be working. Said theyve lost a lot of business due to not having"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935377910824677764)  2025-06-18T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I did an updated $IREN VALUATION last night trying to get comfortable holding after 100% gain To get bullish with IREN all one has to do is take a view on monetization of energy & land portfolio. Time to power is one of the most important pieces of the story. If the hyperscalars have [--] years to get to GW scale they can build their own energy. Oracle searching for [--] 1GW+ sites ready in early [----] - who else has this CBRE new update yesterday shows data center rents are very strong Mining Business 650M 550M 450M 300M If bitcoin does well or network difficulty stays constrained this can be much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938384225499288009)  2025-06-26T23:49Z [----] followers, 49.2K engagements


"Note: While I subtracted the value of the AI DC from CORZ EV that may not fully account for the value-accretion to CRWV for no longer having lease payments as they are paying CORZ more than the DC is worth over time. Though much of that was made up for with the reduced capital-intensity that will be negated if they acquire CORZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938421917511225850)  2025-06-27T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"450M of that is growth capex subtract the 107M in share issuance and you get to 100M in adjusted FCF and their avg EH for the quarter is [----] vs [--] by end of the month funded. If the ratio holds which it likely expands due to operating leverage & reduced investment reqs (suppliers and employee reduction) thats 175M in FCF = 700M run-rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1939020540678975968)  2025-06-28T17:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@HyperTechInvest @Sean__James [----] FCF + [---] hardware investments + [---] PP&E - [---] dilution = 96M Given the employee supplier cost will be a lot higher while they are installing the chips I think its fair to round up 4M to 100M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1939043412612628732)  2025-06-28T19:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Now imagine what they do without the need for buying more bitcoin miners installing them and less need dilution as they have reached scale and can raise debt start funding more from organic FCF get 50M+ FCF from Horizon I which they can stabilize and securitize to build Horizon [--] and onward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1939047075783532977)  2025-06-28T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Growth at 15% (and 20%+ target) is exciting when your incremental margins are 2x existing and your stock trades at 13.5x PE vs similar-growth & margin SaaS peers at 30x+. New management got in a year ago and said they'd focus on shoring up churn cutting costs adding AI & enterprise products and then growth. Already have cut churn from 4% to 0% now aiming to get to 5-7% net dollar retention then continue the 13-15% revenue growth from customer acquisition to reach 20%+ revenue growth by [----]. They continually beat guidance so I think they are being conservative on timelines. That growth is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1940258838969548983)  2025-07-02T03:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Personally CNC. Had a tracker position (.01%) that just got crushed gonna try to figure out wtf going on first though. CNC cheaper not afraid to buyback brand & payout % is better than MOH UNH lowest profit margin so potentially less backlash and kinda like AMTM the gov prefers lower margin contractor. Great history of execution. Did you find anything on this I know in my CNC model I had 5-10% hit to earnings due to medicaid / medicare work requirement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1940444384400392282)  2025-07-02T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@theBTCMiningGuy 😂 copied me word for word not mad though - hope more people discover $IREN https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1938384225499288009s=46&t=0qW7_Jwm4yAwbBgSRoV9Rw I did an updated $IREN VALUATION last night trying to get comfortable holding after 100% gain To get bullish with IREN all one has to do is take a view on monetization of energy & land portfolio. Time to power is one of the most important pieces of the story. If the https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1938384225499288009s=46&t=0qW7_Jwm4yAwbBgSRoV9Rw I did an updated $IREN VALUATION last night trying to get comfortable holding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940922201223713006)  2025-07-03T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not up to date but good comps - $IREN is extremely cheap relative to these when you net out the value of the computers / built DCs or cash flows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940983500221690158)  2025-07-04T03:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thanks no I made an error in $APLD. Posted this so people would correct me was getting tedious researching optioned vs owned vs study. Will post an corrected response with the ones I missed. Pipeline supposed to mean non-contracted I agree Crusoe likely takes longer than late [--] to deploy the 4GW of turbines due to other long-lead items regulatory etc I think SMRs will take [--] years maybe never be feasible compared to large scale nuclear solar nat gas but some hyperscalars have mentioned trying to use them in [--] years. Power a few years out must be incredibly limited if they are chasing the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941534149019353195)  2025-07-05T16:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Say they last [--] years. They paid 75M in [----] = 18.75M depreciation yearly. Lets assume the revenue doesnt fall as the chips age (it will greatly) 2.1M hardware profit last month near full utilization = 25.2M annually * [--] years + 3.1M [----] revenue = 78.7M - 75M depreciation = 3.7M profit [--] years of CSP overhead is definitely higher than that. So they are unprofitable on the first batch even with extremely generous assumptions Now their hardware profit run rate exceeds depreciation 25.2M - 18.75M depreciation = 6.5M annually excluding overhead so Id say theyre probably close to break-even."  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941983066333012212)  2025-07-06T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Figured Id update my implied value per MW numbers with $CORZ acquisition finalized 9B $CORZ EV 67M mining revenue & 7.7M gross profit last Q = 31M GP annualized. Well value it at 300M to be generous + 100M in BTC holdings = 0.4B Value of AI DCs at $15M/MW = 7.5B - 5B lease-financing = 2.5B net EV ex-BTC & built AI DCs = 6.1B For 800MW secured powered land (400MW devoted to mining) 1GW pipeline $IREN EV 4.2B Mining will do 830M gross profit roughly 750M EBITDA * 2.5x = 1.875B CSP = 26M gross profit * [--] years + 130M new GPU order + 5MW converted * 8M/MW = 0.25B (this is conservative as it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942244135802445895)  2025-07-07T15:27Z [----] followers, 11.9K engagements


"Looking at $CNC - comparing prior health insurance hiccups makes it look like a compelling buy. Never seen an scaled insurer near 5x-6x [----] EV/E with a track record of 15% earnings CAGR. Think we're almost at peak oversold for a 37% reduction in [----] earnings that is unlikely to continue INSURANCE CRASH CASE STUDIES $UNH hit 7.7x PE in the GFC when more people needed medical care and their net income fell from 4.5B to 2.8B yet the stock tripled within [--] years from that low. UNH also fell in [----] on ACA issues though it was not as pronounced very quick recovery Humana $HUM ACA faced high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942490184689332297)  2025-07-08T07:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Been following this for a while and started a tracker position around $9. Tons of potential. Problem is they spend crazy on capitalized software R&D administrative. New CEO seems like a fixer but I wonder if he has enough support to do what needs to be done though balance sheet losses have slowed (think he got most write-downs out of the way) and cash is building since he started with flat liabilities. Plan to add if I see more cost-discipline and/or growth. Great product most people have it through their insurance Have a friend who has worked there for years they are focused on AI &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1947875721206009963)  2025-07-23T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Great results from $WEX - figured I'd tweet about it as nobody here talks about them GAAP EPS up 8.2% YoY in a tough environment for their largest business and a model change for their largest customer $BKNG in corporate payments Fleet (44% of EPS) revenue down 3.7% YoY (impressive with gas down 16%) but up 3.8% from last quarter. GAAP operating income for this segment down 15% YoY while gallons processed is roughly flat The crown-jewel HSA business (35% of EPS) had adjusted net income up 19.5% YoY in-line with $HQY which trades at a ridiculous multiple compared to $WEX. HSA assets up 11% YoY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948147489992843411)  2025-07-23T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"That chart of the top players was a little misleading as Prosus included their DHER Meituan stakes here is an accurate version: [----] GMV (ex-China) $DASH 100B $UBER 84B $DHER 53B $PRX Owned 35B $GRAB 13B Rest 25B Of the rest 1.7B is $MPNGY 8B is $CPNG. Prosus includes 17B iFood 18B $TKWY. Dash will add 8B from $ROO acquisition and their Wolt business will do 5.5-6B. $DASH has 22% (22B) of GMV outside of North America and $UBER 40% (34B). Top three control 86% of the market - this is key to the thesis. The market has consolidated the large threats are focused on profitability. You can't take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953613581729034326)  2025-08-08T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@hoomansv Tax liability sowing 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1953617770396233743)  2025-08-08T00:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seems a little high given $IREN can build a liquid cooled 200kw rack density data center for $300-350M ($6-7M/MW IT load) Not a low spec dc - full UPS and diesel generator back up 75MW gross / 50MW IT load network redunancy 6ms latency to Dallas and 12ms to Denver. Albeit they already had the power infrastructure and land"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954056706419315136)  2025-08-09T05:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@FransBakker9812 @HotAisle @IREN_Ltd 50MW is small 200kW rack density isnt enough out of date by [----] Silly hyperscalars still building 200kw rack density DCs dont they know thats outdated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1955646903816794240)  2025-08-13T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Excited to have some new ideas still looking into them but seem compelling: $MAPS $DHER $LFMD $SWON $CRTO $OPRA $MAPS - 3x+ if cannabis is ever rescheduled tax savings reinvested into advertising can grow as more states become legal. cant see any value impairment given cash flows and founder buyout potential. Illiquid so plan to keep small and accumulate on dips. Own some already $DHER - app downloads trending in a very positive direction if we see the market under-react to any improvements in Korea Meituan struggles or solved Prosus overhang will keep buying. Somewhat illiquid so can be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960439620010758288)  2025-08-26T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Trading at 11x book lose money on every transaction but just wait until they reach more scale. Now they can fund losses using retail money and are pivoting to brokerage which is a notoriously great business model 🙄 Cash plus is cool if someone needed cash ASAP and cant pay for renovations but nothing innovative and OPEN still takes the vast majority of the upside so theres far superior options like Compass Concierge bridge loans. Opens best hope is competing with Zillow Redfin. Good luck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968128928075129272)  2025-09-17T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Assume medicare won't cover it but medicare advantage and commercial should. No brainer for clinics to use it to avoid QIP if they aren't footing the bill and no brainer for MA/com. to spend 7.8k/yr/patient to avoid 38k/yr/patient infection-cost 60k CRBSI cost on an 79% 12-month infection-rate = 47.4k weighted cost of infections per patient per year = defencath reduces infections by 70% = 38k avg. cost If ASP comes down 80% to $50 * .25 market share * .60 covered population * 41M vials = $307.5M. At 50% market share within MA and commercial = $612.5M. Add another 102M if clinics will pay $25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1969123554688987634)  2025-09-19T19:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MRVL market worried about losing future Amazon deal missing that theyve gone from [--] deals to 18+ and if they hit [----] market share target consensus is off by 50%. greatly exceeded every target theyve had so far $CRTO 4.8x EV/FCF on losing some big deals low-growth. If it was good enough for Michael Platt at $38 its good enough for me at $22. Will buy back 15-20% of SO annually at these levels. Amazing retail media business but only 1/4th of contribution. Retargeting seen as a melting ice cube though +6% YoY in Q2 hypergrowth in social AI / self-service platform has the potential to keep it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1969827298229584029)  2025-09-21T18:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@UncleAlpha007 Nobodies going to let $CIFR accrue 15M/MW of equity value in 3-5 years the advantage is not just power its time-to-power $IREN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973512089051471939)  2025-10-01T22:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not quite 25% but compared to rubrik for example at 10.5x EV fwd sales / 25% 2FY rg = [----] vs CWAN 6.3x / 20% = 0.31x. Vs total software median ev/s/rg of 5x software on 12% growth And CWAN already at 33% aebitda margin now estimate 35% ebitda margin in [----] and 37.5% [----]. They aim to get to low to mid 40s. So 14x [--] ebitda less than low-growth peers. They keep beating pretty ambitious targets. $30.5 avg analyst PT all buy ratings. I think some PE selling has damped sp Acquisitions definitely add risk but the TAM is expanded a lot and was slightly accretive (plus reached synergies a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1973629702360203617)  2025-10-02T06:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@inglouriouscap 1-2% p mo compounded is 13-27% pa do that w no beta and youre one of the 🐐 hedge funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1974252332108927197)  2025-10-03T23:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@InvestInAssets Fixed it for you. Theres one clear peerless 🐐 especially if you were to take into account drawdowns. Druck had zero negative years. Nobody needs more than [--] years of compounding at 30% 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1977486568764940785)  2025-10-12T21:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RHouseResearch Yesterdays ARR is not tomorrows ARR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1978222603509629339)  2025-10-14T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TedHZhang Interestingly he also more recently said that algos have made that signal not nearly as useful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1980293886561153363)  2025-10-20T15:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TedHZhang Actually it's this one [--] minutes in https://www.youtube.com/watchv=9kH01CNISeQ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=9kH01CNISeQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1980359748441764284)  2025-10-20T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And they kill themselves at the turns and end up losing as much on the turns as they make during the 80% of the time.But I have found contrarian thinking just to be contrarian can be a death trap particularly in bonds and currencies because economic fundamentals are what they are. It can be a rough ride if it's very crowded. But I think the main thing is you have to be disciplined. You have to be unemotional. And to me the really great ones--you have to really be able to play. You have to have courage. You have to play big when the opportunity is there--make hay while the sun shines whatever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1980512470478283072)  2025-10-21T05:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The $IREN $MSFT Deal is Value-Accretive This is the ONLY multi-billion dollar per year IaaS deal done by a fully vertically integrated company outside of $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT. Owned operated and developed in-house It may not look much better than the average colo lease but when you account for the significant prepayment potential use of $MSFT's credit to secure low-cost financing and strategic implications its among the best: $9.7M Revenue/MW/yr $8.245M EBITDA/MW/yr (@ 85% margin) After subtracting the 20% prepayment ($1.94B) = $6.305M EBITDA/MW/yr $3.86B $DELL contract remaining after"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985601374520836228)  2025-11-04T06:53Z [----] followers, 108.6K engagements


"Imagine youre the CFO at AMZN about to work on equity method reporting for AWS in year [--] Update: 2.44B ARR in deals signed and plans for 3.4B by EOY (+12040% YoY). Building an 8.6B data center for MSFT the biggest GB300 supercluster in the world designed developed operated owned in-house and weve been converting 160MW of bitcoin mining data centers for training & inference workloads What is this gonna cost us 🫨 EBT this quarter excl. derivatives -90M 😅 wait 57M related to unusually large SBC from our stock going up too quickly 🤗 and 85M is D&A 🥳🕺"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/1986662229387674099)  2025-11-07T05:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"clay is that u"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/508267181797539840)  2014-09-06T14:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Hbd @clayjohnson22 hope it's a good one homie 🎁🎈🎉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/jakeallen3/status/722826840776273920)  2016-04-20T16:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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