# ![@itsDanielWu Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1021222278468685825.png) @itsDanielWu Daniel Wu

Daniel Wu posts on X about ai, business, $app, china the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1021222278468685825/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1021222278468685825/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +393%
- [--] Month [-------] +721%
- [--] Months [-------] +808%
- [--] Year [-------] +3,672%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1021222278468685825/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1021222278468685825/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -30%
- [--] Months [--] +28%
- [--] Year [---] +1,108%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1021222278468685825/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1021222278468685825/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +2.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +92%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,150%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1021222278468685825/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1021222278468685825/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  36.84% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  28.07% [finance](/list/finance)  15.79% [countries](/list/countries)  8.77% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  2.63% [currencies](/list/currencies)  #997 [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.88% [products](/list/products)  0.88% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.88% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.88%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) #4525, [business](/topic/business) 9.65%, [$app](/topic/$app) #72, [china](/topic/china) #1183, [in the](/topic/in-the) 7.89%, [meta](/topic/meta) 6.14%, [$nvda](/topic/$nvda) 6.14%, [asml](/topic/asml) 6.14%, [nvda](/topic/nvda) 5.26%, [$asml](/topic/$asml) 5.26%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@ragingventures](/creator/undefined) [@ghadjia](/creator/undefined) [@jukanlosreve](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@atelicinvest](/creator/undefined) [@buccocapital](/creator/undefined) [@labubu_trader](/creator/undefined) [@gavinsbaker](/creator/undefined) [@portseacapital](/creator/undefined) [@tmtlongshort](/creator/undefined) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/undefined) [@contrariancurse](/creator/undefined) [@dnystedt](/creator/undefined) [@balder13946731](/creator/undefined) [@mike10947310](/creator/undefined) [@labubutrader](/creator/undefined) [@agnostoxxx](/creator/undefined) [@techfundies](/creator/undefined) [@larryjamieson](/creator/undefined) [@zephyrz9](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[AppLovin Corporation (APP)](/topic/$app) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Unity Software Inc. (U)](/topic/$u) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Wormhole (W)](/topic/$w) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [Effect.AI (EFX)](/topic/$efx) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Reddit, Inc.  (RDDT)](/topic/$rddt) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [APi Group Corporation (APG)](/topic/$apg) [SuperWalk (GRND)](/topic/$grnd) [Match Group Inc (MTCH)](/topic/$mtch)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$APP Adam basically confirming there is some hidden advantage of using Axon UA in MAX mediation that doesn't exist if using some other mediation. Not sure how grey this is if APP is somehow giving itself an advantage in MAX auctions etc. But the upshot is that publishers can't leave MAX if Axon is also their primary source of UA without risking their growth. Remember - advertisers are spending up to their ROAS min in each channel. If they sub out MAX mediation and their Axon ROAS starts decaying they can't just move that spend into another bidder and hope to make that ROAS back Relevant for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021796697098346744)  2026-02-12T04:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Link to our recent writeup on $FICO https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/fair-isaac-corporation-fico-pricing https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/fair-isaac-corporation-fico-pricing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1975713918388744360)  2025-10-08T00:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Balder13946731 Maybe the market remembered AVGO has a software business. Maybe the market thinks COT will be a thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2017748447462625565)  2026-01-31T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Is $CSU cash flow real If organic growth is LSD% and substantially all the growth (revs and EPS) is coming from acqn then cash spent on acqn becomes capex. On that basis CSU had zero/negative FCF in 2022-24 and only this year has it done $1bn real FCF. At the low today $CSU.to was 13x [----] fcf At the low today $CSU.to was 13x [----] fcf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2018818678993944938)  2026-02-03T22:47Z [----] followers, 25.9K engagements


"How do you define LT If AGI by [----] looks increasingly likely Google can pivot existing compute and current/future capex towards internal demand. Azure and AWS have no hope of absorbing all their planned compute capacity internally so yes they need to make a viable business out of standing up potential competitors. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019235698252083599 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019235698252083599"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019235698252083599)  2026-02-05T02:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Does an OpenAI IPO increase or decrease the total amount of funding it can raise between now and whenever the business is self-funding (assume when not if for this question)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019239746262925452)  2026-02-05T02:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"IMO he can definitely market it better because I don't know if anyone serious buys into the whole personal superintelligence thing when he doesn't have a platform that users organise their lives around. And I don't think the full utility of smart glasses can be realised if untethered from the smartphone. He should just lean into building the best damn slop machine the world will ever see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019252214896996689)  2026-02-05T03:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$GOOG with users spending increasing amounts of time onsite in AIO and AI Mode Google has an oppty to insert behavioural (targeted) ads into non-commercial queries something it couldn't really do before because users would click off the SERP to get their information. IMO this is far superior to OpenAI's initial attempt at contextual ads within chats which will always create the perception of bias. Commercial queries are 20% of total searches and 100% of search ad revenue. Perhaps Google can now start monetising the other 80% of search activity. Esp in AI Mode - model needs to think for [--] sec"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019281483169730731)  2026-02-05T05:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mike10947310 Why do so many people mention $SHMD which makes the wet etch tools (a basic chemical process) and no one mentions $LPK which makes the LIDE tools that are used to form TGVs (owns the LIDE IP) and is what Intel most likely used to achieve no SeWaRe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019290674659750351)  2026-02-05T06:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""I'm pleased that we are collaborating with Apple as their preferred cloud provider and to develop the next generation of Apple Foundation Models based on Gemini technology." So.how much is $GOOG fronting $AAPL's capex https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019294600792535430 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019294600792535430"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019294600792535430)  2026-02-05T06:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@labubu_trader @agnostoxxx Hold and then or hold and then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019527273305764264)  2026-02-05T21:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RagingVentures Retail will pump it because they think its a steal under 20x. New element of this cycle not present to the same extent in past cycles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019885225703272619)  2026-02-06T21:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RagingVentures Tesla is $1.5t 🤷🏻♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019892812322574799)  2026-02-06T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TechFundies $TEAM is just the SaaS version of $SNAP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019939292504846387)  2026-02-07T01:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"And there we have it. $APP https://x.com/capitalwatchnow/status/2020722163091959904s=46&t=FzQ8dc8aky58wTcXU8cMmA $APP is the "forensic investigation" suggesting that Hao Tang and Huang Youlong are the same person Google Hao Tang: nothing Google Huang Youlong: [----] red notice in France "H." in Bordeaux extradition case has a sister implicated in Tuandai collapse cousin of She Zhijiang https://x.com/capitalwatchnow/status/2020722163091959904s=46&t=FzQ8dc8aky58wTcXU8cMmA $APP is the "forensic investigation" suggesting that Hao Tang and Huang Youlong are the same person Google Hao Tang: nothing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2020759609326367220)  2026-02-09T07:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Probably a bit of both. But Apple did have to create a separate App Store policy for Tencent because the latter demanded mini programs in Weixin and lower App Store commissions. If Apple did not acquiesce iPhone sales would likely be zero in China. As much as iPhone is (was) a status symbol Weixin iOS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1955825950807220723)  2025-08-14T02:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ Same guy who bailed out $GS at the height of the GFC that ruined millions of lives That reputable guy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1956176782748737745)  2025-08-15T02:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"He is talking about stacking dies: "For example processes such as chamfering backside thinning and slicing have very slow capacity expansion. . Final test (FT) is very slow when so many wafers are stacked together; yield improvement is very slow; and quality validation is even slower. That is the bottleneck and it cannot be relieved quickly in the short term." https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021779197577097383 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021779197577097383"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021779197577097383)  2026-02-12T02:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$EFX slides accompanying its VS4.0 pricing announcement are so misleading it's frankly insulting. 1) Saying $FICO raised its price from $4.95 to $10 is very disingenuous. EFX was charging lenders $10 per score because it was marking up FICO's royalty by 100% and has been clipping this 100% margin freeriding ticket for decades. FICO going direct is simply taking that markup for itself with no change to what lenders are charged. 2) Suggesting EFX makes $0 profit on FICO passthrough vs an incremental $4.50 profit on VS4.0 is comparing apples to a sack of potatoes because that "FICO pass thru at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1975710969960787986)  2025-10-07T23:52Z [----] followers, 16.3K engagements


"Wrote a thought piece on $ADBE reflecting on why the stock moved from starter position into the too hard pile. We turned our minds to [--] key questions re AI's impact on Adobe's core creative business. IMO any decision to own ADBE stock needs to be underpinned by the view that Digital Media segment is insulated from AI disruption. 1) What does being an AI loser look like for Adobe 2) Are Adobes products susceptible to being disrupted by AI 3) Is Adobes business model or economics susceptible to being disrupted by AI 4) Can Adobe self-disrupt using AI before an AI competitor or startup disrupts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019877773867909372)  2026-02-06T20:56Z [----] followers, 14.7K engagements


"https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/adobe-inc-adbe-slowly-then-all-at https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/adobe-inc-adbe-slowly-then-all-at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2019877776602591494)  2026-02-06T20:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@zephyr_z9 Is he talking about stacking dies into HBM packages or packaging compute with HBM (ie CoWoS)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021479438857404446)  2026-02-11T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What happens when $RDDT becomes increasingly filled with bots AI slop and SEO slop I feel like $RDDT gets added to the software names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake. Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine. Dont think youll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y 91.5% gross margin 27-30 forward p/e again. And theyre forward https://t.co/jZaoR6ylmF I feel like $RDDT gets added to the software names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake. Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine. Dont think youll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y 91.5% gross margin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021719189086765072)  2026-02-11T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Feels like some important context was left off here. The HBM shortage/bottleneck is only half of the message. Below is the full response the SMIC CEO gave re the current memory shortage (translated using chatgpt). If the commodity DRAM and NAND shortage for PC and smartphones in China can be alleviated by CXMT and YMTC that domestic supply response will affect the entire global memory market. Do not let anyone convince you that China and ex-China are separate markets for commod DRAM and NAND. $MU $SNDK SK Hynix Samsung translation NAND Flash or DRAM (whether 32GB of DRAM or 64GB) everyone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021778631752814631)  2026-02-12T02:49Z [----] followers, 130K engagements


"$APP $U Listening to Adam and Matt answer questions it is very clear who knows his business cold and who played D&D once when he was 12"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021800740436738466)  2026-02-12T04:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yeah.Stripe is never coming public"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2021895684736315400)  2026-02-12T10:34Z [----] followers, 13.9K engagements


"@GavinSBaker Thanks Gavin SMIC CEO doing most of the heavy lifting here 😅 Everyone is talking about massive S/D imbalance without realising that a 10x in the DRAM has been caused by like a 5% bits imbalance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2022032059842380201)  2026-02-12T19:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"How would you rate CloudX's POS in taking material share from MAX Meta support or not if it's true that ad network performance is (materially) better on said network's mediation a switch to CloudX seems like it would be a hard pill to swallow for any developer reliant on Axon for UA. Also does Meta support for CloudX imply some sort of data exchange that could make MAN more efficient than other networks at bidding into CloudX auctions https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022065496561213823 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022065496561213823"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2022065496561213823)  2026-02-12T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MU Wolfe conference Q: do you still see your HBM share in-line with your commodity DRAM share this year A: "No we've not given an update. As you mentioned we said that when we launched initially in HBM for our high-volume products we said that we would ramp our HBM3E 8-high and 12-high into getting HBM share in line with our conventional DRAM share and we achieved that. And now it's a product like others that we are always making decisions on -- portfolio-based decisions on what our customers need what our footprint will support where the value is in the space. I mean fortunately with our"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2022138658506387746)  2026-02-13T02:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ohcapideas @PythiaR I am saying you would not claim CSU is trading on 13x FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2018844453642096797)  2026-02-04T00:30Z [----] followers, 23.8K engagements


"@rubicon59 They know. They're scared of $META"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/2022165168369938513)  2026-02-13T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ParkerBot1987 @portseacapital Yeah thats gonna be hard. Plenty of anecdotes on X and Tegus re the strong performance of e-comm pilot but the advertisers have no idea how much APP keeps vs passes to pubs. Then again Meta keeps 100% and advertisers dont care so long as they hit their ROAS targets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889953186519412795)  2025-02-13T08:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$TTD blew up on a slight rev and massive (unexplained) EBITDA miss. @GHadjia published a year ago to the day a deep dive on TTD. A sound business with good prospects and great product but priced for perfection. Became even more PfP in LTM but has now round tripped 12M perf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1890559678024753291)  2025-02-15T00:32Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements


"Weve unlocked the deep dive from behind the paywall for anyone whos interested in learning more about the business now. https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/the-trade-desk-ttd-a-champion-of https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/the-trade-desk-ttd-a-champion-of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1890559681325584439)  2025-02-15T00:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Retail media is a LT oppty and one that we believe is even more challenging for TTD to exploit given its lack of supply-side capabilities and 1P data retailer pushback to ad tech fees and a changing privacy landscape that risks degrading the efficacy of offsite RM advertising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1890559699004571825)  2025-02-15T00:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ClarkSquareCap $GAW LN. Plastic crack is addictive dominates a niche can barely keep ex-40K/AOS products in stock expanding mfg facilities TOW nostalgic dads tons of IP potential. Risks: 3D printing necessities toys tariffs Not done the work as think too exxy but it keeps going up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1902151688762618044)  2025-03-19T00:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@sigmazerocap Uh. $U is a "shitco ad tech" company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905398360976359714)  2025-03-27T23:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Today we published a [-----] word deep dive on $MELI the dominant e-commerce + fintech ecosystem in Latam. A pandemic winner MELI has continued winning ever since. Revenue increased by 9x (55% CAGR) over L5Y and EPS flipped from -$3.7 to $37.7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1906819710060265642)  2025-03-31T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We published the Bristlemoon Global March quarterly letter this morning. The fund returned -3.2% for the quarter and 14.0% since inception (July 2024). In the letter we talk about raising cash and defensive positioning heading into April which has proven fortuitous. We also share our Hemnet $HEM thesis and an update on $PAR which we have written about previously. The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -3.2% for the March [----] quarter. For the nine month period ending March [--] [----] the Fund produced a 14.0% return. In our quarterly letter below we discuss our more defensive portfolio stance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1909756237442596911)  2025-04-08T23:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PAR deep dive: https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corporation-par-the https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/par-technology-corporation-par-the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1909756667199414414)  2025-04-08T23:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jukanlosreve I think it's becoming pretty evident that China is not dumping USTs but rather a blowup of the basis trade is taking place right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1909833790761152548)  2025-04-09T05:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Why wouldnt APi Group $APG work here Safety/inspection biz is low cost high value recurring can pass through tariff costs and recession resilient because mandated by regulations. Projects biz may be weak but thats non-recurring low margin and attracts low multiple anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909936480665121111)  2025-04-09T11:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@peterwildeford Effective tariffs went from 27% to 25% and the SPX ripped 9%. You could say that was anoverreaction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1910467142946103348)  2025-04-10T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMTLongShort Trump may be dogmatic about tariffs but not clear that he is dogmatic about decoupling. Miran and co may be dogmatic about decoupling but they are not the decision maker"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1914805297228734856)  2025-04-22T22:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Retail will continue to buy. LOs with fully invested relative mandates must buy. HFs/MMs need to respect Trump's ability to move markets. So the real question is do the actions of those with the luxury of being flexible outweigh the actions of those operating within fixed constraints"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1914832107446395386)  2025-04-23T00:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Today @GHadjia published a deep dive on $GRND the gay dating app monopolist. This follows from our extensive work on $MTCH and the straight dating app market. The report explores the key differences between the two markets the fundamentally different network dynamics at play the monetisation potential for Grindr and the risks that we see with the stock. Bristlemoon just published a detailed report on Grindr $GRND the gay dating app monopolist. The app has the #1 position in virtually all of its [---] mkts and users spend 70min per day on the app. Our deep dive explores the monetization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1917363119292309951)  2025-04-29T23:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MikeFritzell @FirmReturns I wager that AI will atrophy the critical thinking of a majority of people who use it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1917855306106954073)  2025-05-01T08:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$META April already seeing some reduced inbound US ad spend from China e-comm advertisers ahead of de minimis elimination; some of this has been reallocated to other markets but overall spend for these advertisers is down vs levels prior to April"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1917939347527180426)  2025-05-01T13:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMTLongShort Still seems a stretch to go from "rules of origin that maximise bilateral trade" to "you're not allowed to trade with China if you want to trade with us". Realistically the UK has not been and will not be a material intermediary in transshipment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1920632648428298298)  2025-05-09T00:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest This chart is not showing what you think it is showing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1935859954935894122)  2025-06-20T00:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MU closing the day red despite blowout FQ3 results and FQ4 guide suggests the almost 100% rally from April lows has priced in all the good news. Have seen a lot of narratives explaining the weakness but IMO stock just needed a breather. Key takeaways:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1938393945589055585)  2025-06-27T00:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Jukanlosreve So basically it's looking like TSMC the only foundry with Angstrom nodes this decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1940246400455037031)  2025-07-02T03:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ROICAHOLIC76 @PythiaR Because it's wrong. [---] wph at 100% ute is [------] layers a month. Even [----] wafers at [--] layers each feels low as implies 40% uptime. (and the AI maths above would be completely wrong anyway) Rule of thumb $3bn capex for 10kwspm which includes fab shell and all equipment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1947841350935974034)  2025-07-23T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CapitalValor That $550B is as real as Masa/Samas $500B stargate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1947988947461865577)  2025-07-23T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest By not chewing through 1T tokens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1953263316127904082)  2025-08-07T01:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jukanlosreve Will try everything except buy more $NVDA GPUs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955857403934859290)  2025-08-14T05:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@wolfofharcourt @bizalmanac @ReustleMatt Thank you gentlemen. Glad you got something out of it 👍🏼"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1964809547941548527)  2025-09-07T21:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@atelicinvest There are newsletter writers and there are investors who happen to publish their research. Only one of them is sometimes worth paying for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1964906698436698316)  2025-09-08T04:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Realise that any single-stock finstack author who hides the ticker behind a paywall is openly admitting that the only value they provide is the ticker. Random Sunday night thoughts on substack paywalls. Many publications hide the ticker behind a vague description. IMO the ticker is the least useful part. Anyone can throw tickers out there and claim it's cheap. Even from authors I like hit rate is far below 30% - not enough Random Sunday night thoughts on substack paywalls. Many publications hide the ticker behind a vague description. IMO the ticker is the least useful part. Anyone can throw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1964908565132706133)  2025-09-08T04:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My simplistic view is that if you're writing "deep dive" style content and put the ticker behind the paywall you simply don't have enough insight to make the content worth paying for. This is especially the case today where surface-level descriptive content can easily be obtained from the LLMs. Trying to get people to pay for a newsletter by dangling a [--] para mystery outside the paywall isn't exactly a strong hook esp when [--] other newsletters are doing the same. So is the fear that as soon as someone sees the ticker they won't value/pay for the rest of the content If it's [--] tickers each with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1964918081152811383)  2025-09-08T05:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GHadjia just published a massive deep dive on $FICO. A lot of nuanced puts and takes for a business that seems simple on the surface. Much more to the debate than FICO monopoly will be fine or FICO royalties are only [--] bps of closing costs or omg FICO pulled pricing too hard and now its pricing power will be regulated/competed away Well worth a read - I certainly learned a ton Bristlemoon just published a 16k+ word report on $FICO the credit score monopolist that has increased its mortgage scores prices by 800% over the last three years. We explore how entrenched FICO is in the US credit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1966259217188475339)  2025-09-11T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Somewhere out there Evrgreen is lying on a beach enjoying his 100% MTD on the back of $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1968654656810180920)  2025-09-18T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The comparison is made to Aus because Aus and Swe are the only [--] countries where property portal listings are vendor paid vs coming out of agent comms. If $HEM listing is [--] bps instead of [--] bps the vendor isn't going to not list on the platform where 90%+ of eyeballs are. Achieving a 1% higher sale price more than offsets the listing cost. Agents also incentivised to push clients to list on HEM because higher sale price = higher comms. REA+Domain is in the 40+ bps range combined in markets like Sydney and still not clear where pricing power plateaus; HEM is in the 20s. Perhaps once $ amts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1968931862375800998)  2025-09-19T06:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Divergent7651 When has earnings/wacc ever worked as described outside of academia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1969928581699772799)  2025-09-22T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SixSigmaCapital tl;dr but if you're interested he explains the summing here: https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1937840704497107238 AUM and returns for multi strategy funds [---]. Because people struggle with my summing up of my alpha and beta returns instead of "using a weighted average" I thought it may be useful to help people understand how professional money management works. https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1937840704497107238 AUM and returns for multi strategy funds [---]. Because people struggle with my summing up of my alpha and beta returns instead of "using a weighted average" I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1970637106067447873)  2025-09-23T23:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"IMO to build a financially successful substack today you need to pick your target audience carefully. Either 1) writing frequent stock pitches aimed at retail/readers with day jobs 2) essentially a trading journal with immediately actionable setups or 3) very well researched insight-dense pieces that are more deep dives into a business than a pitch/rec are ready when theyre ready and targeted at professionals and/or potential investors/allocators (if you run a fund). I personally think 1) is commoditised and not worth paying for esp with how far AI has come. 2) can be great if you are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1973728201336926462)  2025-10-02T12:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"We just published the Bristlemoon Global Fund Q3 letter. The fund returned 5.6% in Sep and 5.0% for the quarter. In the letter we discuss our thoughts on $ASML $GOOG $SNPS and $PAR. The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned [---] percent for the September [----] quarter with a [---] percent return for the month of September [----] net of fees. For the fifteen-month period since inception the Fund has produced a cumulative [----] percent return net of fees. The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned [---] percent for the September [----] quarter with a [---] percent return for the month of September [----] net of fees."  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1976384131622895650)  2025-10-09T20:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A thought on $GOOG AI Mode. Would appreciate any alternative perspectives. One perhaps underappreciated capability that AI Mode + AI Max enables is what wed term a platform/advertiser push ad model rather than a user pull model. Meta is the best example of a platform push model where ads are passively served to users based on what Meta thinks will interest the user. Google Search on the other hand is a user pull model where ads are served based explicitly on what the user is actively searching for. We believe the former provides greater incrementality and helps advertisers find customers that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1976420849512247557)  2025-10-09T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@elbasti @buccocapital Why would you ignore SBC The companies themselves don't ignore SBC - that's why they do BBs to offset the SBC dilution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1978206568677003568)  2025-10-14T21:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FT just took Jensen Maths and applied it to AVGO. Cant just slap $35B on every GW you hear about. I recall ests couple yrs ago for TPU being 30-50% the price of H100s and I cant imagine thats changed much vs todays GB200 systems. The whole point of ASIC is a specialised (ie narrow capability) chip for known fixed workloads that is cheaper and more efficient than GPU. Google would not be designing TPUs if it cost the same as NVDA GPU. Neither would OAI start on this journey. Metas MTIA (v1 maybe) was rumoured to cost like $1500 and thats an AVGO ASIC project. Thats like 97% cheaper than a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1978571041850208418)  2025-10-15T21:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Requesting feedback from the litho/ASML experts as I try to figure out how much upside for $ASML from current levels over the next few years. Doing some napkin maths on N2 it doesn't seem like there would be a big step change in EUV/litho tool demand Maybe A14 will see some sort of step change w more EUV layers but that's also like 3+ years away from equipment install. What am I missing in my assumptions I know separately the DRAM vendors will also be buying more EUV tools for HBM but would think TSMC still remains 40-50% of total EUV shipments (maybe this is wrong assumption). Relatedly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1980780921612865890)  2025-10-21T23:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yes I agree that if AI ARR continues on a steep trajectory then TSMC will plan its capacity additions in line. I would question NVDAs ability to get to (ballpark) $500b in earnings within [--] years without TSMC massively expanding capacity first. Feels to me like a chicken and egg problem. I will do some thinking/maths on this and revert. Perhaps it is possible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1981440258526076997)  2025-10-23T19:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@buccocapital People pumping it are probably not appreciating the difference between aero engines vs avionics. Also GE breakup perfect timing - ahead of engine renaissance and DC power boom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1981514094621708409)  2025-10-24T00:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Doesn't seem that far off If we take Jensen Maths ie $100bn DC investment is $70bn of semis sales (to NVDA) 8/70 is 11%. With NVDA's extreme GM it doesn't seem unreasonable. But ofc if we take Real Maths the "1GW DC = $50bn capex" at 1.2x PUE is only $22-23bn of NVL72 racks at $3.5m a rack. 8/45 = 18% WFE intensity. Lam mgmt had NFI what was included in that $100bn when asked so who knows where they pulled that $8bn WFE from. One of the most striking parts of Lam Researchs recent presentation was their statement that every $100 billion increase in AI investment creates about an $8 billion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1982627746045178262)  2025-10-27T01:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/framing-the-ai-bubble https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/framing-the-ai-bubble"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985471509301981687)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Unit economics: Don't conflate op losses/cash burn with poor unit economics. OpenAI -$7.8bn op loss in 1H25 is the lede but GM is 42% = inference has positive unit economics. Depending on model size API pricing and paying user mix inference GM might range from 50% to 80%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471511520858355)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Capex and ROI: Hyperscalers as a group are only spending 2/3 of OCF on capex (BBG ccs #s) = can fund another +50% in capex using CF alone and +200% capex with 1x turn of leverage. OAI's capacity to pay may be questionable; hyperscalers' capacity to pay is not (sorry ORCL)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471514255507812)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Hyperscaler standalone AI ROI is hard to measure as AI investment benefits all parts of biz. Ccs ests (likely with full capex burden but no explicit new AI rev streams) still indicate mid-teens post-tax incremental ROI - well above WACC. If these weren't already the best businesses in the world (sorry again ORCL) a mid-teens post-tax ROIC with nearly 100% reinvestment rate at the scale these companies are operating at would be a textbook example of an attractive compounder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471517044719772)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We est $TSMC N2 capex will be in the vicinity of $4.7bn per 10kwpm or $80-85bn for 170-180kwpm. CY26 ccs capex $46bn probably too low. TSMC unlikely to benefit from tool reuse or capacity conversion as it did for N5 N3 as N2 fabs are in Hsinchu vs N3/N5 in Tainan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985471519682936877)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Implication for $ASML: more EUV tool demand than is likely modelled in ccs. Sellside likely overestimates EUV tool productivity in the wild plus the lack of reuse above. HBM/DRAM likely also drives EUV demand again in CY27 after a breather in CY26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471522501509535)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Sellside raising $TSMC CoWoS ests to 100kwpm by y/e [----] and 50% alloc to $NVDA means Rubin could do 12m GPU dies. Add allowance for CPU networking silicon and ASICs = AI wafer demand could be 50%+ of N3 capacity i.e. TSMC may need to add more N3 capacity (benefits ASML)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471524787347672)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If $NVDA sells 12m R200 GPUs in NVL144 config at stable $/W pricing to GB200 would be $440bn of server rev for FY28 with some spillover into FY27. Would also suggest another 30%+ server rev growth in FY28 is possible on top of Jensen's GTC chart ($300b in FY27)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1985471527480168934)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"These are our ests based on napkin maths (DYOR). We are not saying we believe these #s will happen only that these #s are possible in the right environment (i.e. ests can still move up a lot). Whether or not we are in an "AI bubble" is irrelevant to us. As always would appreciate any well-reasoned pushback or alt views on the fundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471529883484324)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@quantian1 @obsidiancap1 Reinvesting how Buy 100k GB300s that they dont need"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1986286469754069367)  2025-11-06T04:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@code_star The 6k racks of GPUs is probably to generate ad creative and video slop that the other 90k MTIA racks will rank and rec. such is life"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1987301775863619981)  2025-11-08T23:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The key insight for $APP (h/t @portseacapital) was that e-comm ad spend could be close to 100% take rate. A broker ad network is not like a SAN (eg Meta) or an open web adtech agent (eg TTD)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889792165338824789)  2025-02-12T21:42Z [----] followers, 17.4K engagements


"Further thoughts on $APP here: https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/bristlemoon-september-quarterly-letter https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/bristlemoon-september-quarterly-letter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889792851577348148)  2025-02-12T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@IndraStocks That's not how they are placed. That's where they are placed. $APP is an ad network - it has 70%+ m/s of all mobile gaming ad inventory globally. It buys ad impressions from pubs and sells them to advertisers on its network which has 30%+ (my est) share of the $30bn IAA market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889846968073199957)  2025-02-13T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"By my est $APP likely posted $100m e-comm ad rev in its Q4 pilot. Ad revs +20% QoQ and Adam said there were no step-change AXON improvements so just the base MSD% growth from model self-improvement. That leaves 15% or $120m QoQ rev to be explained - likely by e-comm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889855549329785306)  2025-02-13T01:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


""In [----] in conjunction with completing the rebuild of our machine learning stack well integrate Unity Ads Unity LevelPlay and Tapjoy into the Runtime so that they are on the same cloud and data platform and share a single data set." So far so good. https://80.lv/articles/exclusive-unity-ceo-s-internal-announcement-to-staff-amidst-the-layoffs/ https://80.lv/articles/exclusive-unity-ceo-s-internal-announcement-to-staff-amidst-the-layoffs/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1889918468285407538)  2025-02-13T06:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$U earnings today indicate some green shoots in their turnaround efforts. Unity Vector (the new ads engine) migration to commence end of Q1 through Q2 ahead of the mid-2025 schedule. We recently published a deep dive on $U (link below) and things are tracking as we expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1892709649238888578)  2025-02-20T22:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The one blemish is Q1 guide which missed by -6% on rev and -29% on EBITDA. Market ignored it but we fear this ugly guide reflects how the biz would perform if Vector migration is unsuccessful. CEO noted prudence and some disruption from migration but this only starts late Q1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1892709668340011226)  2025-02-20T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"How will AI solve the following human biases in online dating [--]. Physical attraction being key prereq to meeting a stranger in dating context. [--]. Unrealistic expectations. 80% of men swiping on 20% of women 80% of women thinking 80% of men are undateable etc. And where does the data come from People tend to answer Qs about themselves in the way they perceive/desire themselves to be rather than the way they are. There is no objective "source of truth" for a person's life that an LLM can use to build a profile of what it would be like to spend extended periods of time with that person. On"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1902527256314179975)  2025-03-20T01:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This chart is showing avg est R&D cost to design a chip at each node. Not sure how this directly relates to TSMCs own costs and wafer pricing. N2 capex is likely $3bn+ per 10kwpm. TSMC targets a ROIC as the primary financial KPI so will price wafers accordingly. $30k could be headline price and large customers get discounts. I think $25-27k may be more realistic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1904636125001769232)  2025-03-25T20:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Fantastic post from @eric_seufert as always. Simply laying out the facts of how an extremely murky industry works and letting readers come to their own conclusions about the stock. I won't have time for a slide-by-slide rebuttal but I have one hour now and will attempt to address the principal points in the report. Disclosure: I own an amount of $APP that is immaterial to me (1% of PA). I have no relationship with the company. 1/X I won't have time for a slide-by-slide rebuttal but I have one hour now and will attempt to address the principal points in the report. Disclosure: I own an amount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1905447307971359048)  2025-03-28T02:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seeing a surge in posts about how China should just take TW now after the reversal of the reversal of the $NVDA H20 ban. If Trump shot himself in the foot with his tariff grand strategy why would Xi take the revolver and shoot himself in the chest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1912301622577037694)  2025-04-16T00:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@borrowed_ideas I don't think anyone serious has argued that WA was a steal at any point. That was a clearly defensive acqn by Zuck - unlike IG which had more obvious revenue and profit potential. And I suspect both sides knew it hence the huge scrip component"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1918439598772130073)  2025-05-02T22:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Coming to an agreement to slash tariffs so dramatically on China (albeit temporarily) after a [--] day mtg when the US and China were perceived to be very far apart on their demands puts the US in a difficult spot in negotiations with key allies like JP KR IN etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1922114704144507357)  2025-05-13T02:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TMTBreakout Aside from o3 doing the maths horrifically wrong at the end and making up the conclusion are you not concerned that this makes RDDT even more reliant on GOOG traffic Also a higher volume of logged-out traffic with high bounce rate is probably not that valuable for advertising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1935097736476713085)  2025-06-17T22:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Recirculating our $TTD deep dive from over a year ago now that the stocks blown up a second time this year on slowing growth in an otherwise favourable environment for advertising. Still think the future is going to be challenging with AI strangling the open web and walled gardens continuing to dominate. More capable competition as well - imagine $APP turning its attention back to CTV once the non-gaming self service platform is in GA and stabilised. $TTD blew up on a slight rev and massive (unexplained) EBITDA miss. @GHadjia published a year ago to the day a deep dive on TTD. A sound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1953806234634870956)  2025-08-08T13:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@henrysgao On [--] and [--] allowing NVDA to sell H20 into China doesnt stop the Chinese from also smuggling more advanced chips and doesnt give DC more control over who gets the smuggled chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1955176041066139929)  2025-08-12T07:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jukanlosreve No one has a clue what next year's hyperscaler capex will be. The market underestimated [----] capex [----] capex and likely misestimating [----] as well. Also the hyperscalers have said that capex mix will shift toward server and networking assets from long-lived assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1955427381231210900)  2025-08-13T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@buccocapital But it was right to a large extent in China no So it's not really the superapp bear case was catastrophically wrong it's that no Weixin-level superapp ever arose in the west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1955820986101850589)  2025-08-14T02:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MooreMorrisSemi @SemiAnalysis_ People forget there was a Blackwell delay and NVDA is now $4.4T market cap. Zuck is not going to suddenly forget how to spend money if Jensen is 3mo delayed on product"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1955872227389530145)  2025-08-14T06:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"My theory is that Anthropic enjoys higher propensity to pay from its user base which has higher mix of early adopters and power users (SWE). But its revs will asymptote earlier. OAI OTOH will find it more difficult to monetise consumers until they set up ads. But way higher ceiling. [----] onward race is going to be close👀. Latest guesses were $25-$30BN OpenAI $20-26BN Anthropic 🍿 https://t.co/4QaT0qwtlO [----] onward race is going to be close👀. Latest guesses were $25-$30BN OpenAI $20-26BN Anthropic 🍿 https://t.co/4QaT0qwtlO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1980027143552987241)  2025-10-19T21:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"IMO the discussion of "capex overhang" and "If AI demand continues let alone grows theres more than enough money to build more fabs." misdiagnoses the challenge. Money isn't the challenge. There's plenty of money now and plenty of ways to get more money in future. The challenge is managing that S/D. If the hyperscalers decide that AI is a flop they cut their capex and FCF jumps right back up. Private investors take a bath and OAI goes back to being a research lab. But if TSMC (and the memory vendors) builds capacity in line with Sam or Jensen's hyperbolic forecasts it will face years of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1981220597398196696)  2025-10-23T04:46Z [----] followers, 35.1K engagements


"@dnystedt N2 wafers would have to be $100k+ or the A20 die 3-4x larger than A18 for that maths to make sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1981540418463682710)  2025-10-24T01:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@dnystedt I thought that may be the case. In that case the $45 vs $280 is not comparing mature yield to mature yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1981545695007179206)  2025-10-24T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse They cant afford buyside analysts for FP&A roles. Theres also enough repetitive work in these roles that you cant just hire one gun analyst in lieu of five mediocre accountants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1982934744355766509)  2025-10-27T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I see lots of people debating [--] qtrs or [--] qtrs but: How is 20m B+R only $0.5T+ Blackwells are already going for $40k each and Rubin should be around $60k assuming flat $/W. Seems like the chart just takes the $25k for Hopper and applies it to the 20m B+Rs. So either the 20m is not all firm orders or someone advised Jensen that it would be too based to guide to $800-$900B rev for FY27 I went back and listened to Jensen again a half a dozen times here. Some headlines read $500B of business next [--] quarters for $NVDA. But at one point he explicitly said $500B next [--] quarters. And is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1983265604237979778)  2025-10-28T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is how podbrain broke the market. Wells Fargo on $META: "Clearly this was the worst of the bunch. The language on [----] operating expenses and capital expenditures again took another step function higher qualitatively. While META did not explicitly give us anything clearly they are signaling much higher Wells Fargo on $META: "Clearly this was the worst of the bunch. The language on [----] operating expenses and capital expenditures again took another step function higher qualitatively. While META did not explicitly give us anything clearly they are signaling much higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1983822725258080605)  2025-10-30T09:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Published a piece with some thoughts on where we are in the AI buildout/bubble mainly from the angle of $TSMC capex $ASML EUV demand and $NVDA revenue outlook. Link below. First some high-level points:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471507062276153)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements


"One final point not covered in the article is that there are bottlenecks and constraints across the AI supply chain mainly power & chips which militate against fervent overbuilding and stockpiling behavior that is typically required for a bubble to pop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1985471532383289730)  2025-11-03T22:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TSMC gonna need a lot more N3 capacity. This was ofc obvious if one just took TSMC's CoWoS expansion at face value. On top of potential $80B+ N2 capex. $ASML $NVDA - NVIDIA URGES TSMC TO BOOST BLACKWELL 3NM WAFER OUTPUT BY 50% Nvidia has asked TSMC to raise 3nm wafer production for its Blackwell chips by up to 50% from about 100110k to around 160k wafers per month an increase of roughly 35k. CEO Jensen Huang said demand is $NVDA - NVIDIA URGES TSMC TO BOOST BLACKWELL 3NM WAFER OUTPUT BY 50% Nvidia has asked TSMC to raise 3nm wafer production for its Blackwell chips by up to 50% from about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/itsDanielWu/status/1987750975541813414)  2025-11-10T05:15Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements

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