#  @icemancapital icemancapital
There is no direct mention of "icemancapital" in the provided tweets. However, several tweets discuss a company referred to as "$four", which appears to be a publicly traded company, and its recent activities, including a acquisition of Worldline NA for $81m USD. The tweets also mention other companies, such as $tost, $par, and $xyz, and discuss their performance and market trends.
### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1393297857734582272/interactions)
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- [--] Month [------] +252%
- [--] Months [---------] -60%
- [--] Year [----------] +1,496%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1393297857734582272/posts_active)
- [--] Week [--] -40%
- [--] Month [--] -85%
- [--] Months [---] +202%
- [--] Year [---] +306%
### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1393297857734582272/followers)
- [--] Week [-----] -0.14%
- [--] Month [-----] +4.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +21%
- [--] Year [-----] +73%
### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1393297857734582272/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [agencies](/list/agencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [exchanges](/list/exchanges)
**Social topic influence**
[$four](/topic/$four) #59, [business](/topic/business), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$gpn](/topic/$gpn) #18, [$gfl](/topic/$gfl), [share](/topic/share), [$gflto](/topic/$gflto), [canada](/topic/canada), [ai](/topic/ai), [ceo](/topic/ceo)
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jerrycap](/creator/undefined) [@rookisaacman](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@longriverhk](/creator/undefined) [@borrowedideas](/creator/undefined) [@compoundpapi](/creator/undefined) [@tomsmith839](/creator/undefined) [@shift4](/creator/undefined) [@penderdave](/creator/undefined) [@muddywatersre](/creator/undefined) [@larryjamieson](/creator/undefined) [@chaptwelvecap](/creator/undefined) [@nestbetter](/creator/undefined) [@sleepwellcap](/creator/undefined) [@bizalmanac](/creator/undefined) [@ghadjia](/creator/undefined) [@itsdanielwu](/creator/undefined) [@marcruby](/creator/undefined) [@reddogcapital](/creator/undefined) [@tseides](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. (GFL)](/topic/$gfl) [Toast, Inc. (TOST)](/topic/$tost) [Burford Capital Limited (BUR)](/topic/$bur) [Fluence (FLT)](/topic/$flt) [Grand Base (GB)](/topic/$gb) [United Rentals, Inc. (URI)](/topic/$uri) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares (CIGI)](/topic/$cigi) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Corpay, Inc. (CPAY)](/topic/$cpay) [CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/cvs) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Bank of Montreal (BMO)](/topic/bank-of-montreal) [LKQ Corporation (LKQ)](/topic/$lkq) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Block, Inc. (XYZ)](/topic/$xyz) [Fiserv, Inc. (FI)](/topic/$fi)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$MATR peer Cactus Inc $WHD expected Spoolable Technology to be down in the quarter was actually up +4.3% - delta driven by more resilient customer activity. However Q4 now expected to be down MSD-HSD on a QoQ basis. EBITDA expected to be in 36-38% range excl. SBC International Penetration for their FlexSteel product has more than doubled [----] levels. However US market characterized as challenging. Paid 650m for Spoolable tech have already received 190m back on track for an attractive payback period. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1852116665124700623"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1852116665124700623) 2024-10-31T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of these is not like the others $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $COF"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1601074116484005888) 2022-12-09T04:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/n) After a long period of lurking on the sidelines I'm posting my first deep dive & model to Fintwit. I published a piece on $URI yesterday. The company is the largest rental business in the world which has 16% market share. https://www.icemancapital.com/unitedrentals/ https://www.icemancapital.com/unitedrentals/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1610041886282256385) 2023-01-02T22:34Z [----] followers, 26.6K engagements
"(1/n) 2nd post is out on the blog. I published a piece on $FND this morning. The company is a leading hard surface retail which has 9% market share and is well positioned to continue growing over the long term. https://www.icemancapital.com/flooranddecor/ https://www.icemancapital.com/flooranddecor/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1636030748334632962) 2023-03-15T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"by @scuttleblurb https://www.scuttleblurb.com/apg-api-group/ https://www.scuttleblurb.com/apg-api-group/"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1640724878184845312) 2023-03-28T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@longriver_hk $AHT has generally had better margins organic growth lower leverage and more exposure to SMBs. I wrote up $URI earlier this year would love to hear any feedback you have"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1676980128000413696) 2023-07-06T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(1/n) 3rd post out on $FLT today. Its a fantastic payments success story. Ron Clarke took this business from near bankruptcy to a successful IPO in [----]. Then compounded revenues at an 18% CAGR into [----]. Adj EPS grew at a 20% CAGR"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1683829841785946112) 2023-07-25T13:21Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements
"(3/n) FLT has now evolved from a payment specialist to a full provider of comprehensive corporate payment solutions that help businesses manage expenses and spend less📷"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1683829845179125760) 2023-07-25T13:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(4/n) FLTs solutions face potential risks from an impending shift in the auto market from ICE vehicles to EVs but the market overlooks the value it could capture from its portfolio of EV assets. A long transition period could still prove to be very profitable for $FLT"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1683829846831693827) 2023-07-25T13:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FLT Q2/2023 results were out last night w/ which were in line with the street. 10% organic was strong as Mexico/Australia had 20% growth. EV-related revenues were up 45% and Brazil (Tolls largely) was up 15% (volumes +7%)"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1689287064120967169) 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On the portfolio review they expect to close the Russia sale later this month. The prepaid business will be undergoing a sale process and also identified some non-core operations in the vehicle operation"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1689287077676863489) 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$FLT continues to work with GS on separating one of the four businesses to unlock value or considering combining one of the three major businesses with a "dance partner". More to come before YE"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1689287079337848832) 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EquiCompound ATS Automation Systems $ATS.TO has generated fantastic returns too. Its current CEO Andrew Hilder spent nearly a decade at $DHR before becoming the head of the company"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1691143216622690304) 2023-08-14T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Why is check fraud suddenly rampant $FLT"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1696882058453270798) 2023-08-30T13:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some BRK groupies might know Ian or have heard of him before. Despite loosely following BRK for close to a decade I can't recall his name ever coming up. Has anyone met him or have first hand experience with Ian $BRK.A $BRK.B"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1715042031201120463) 2023-10-19T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"JAY HENNICK: A Guy with Entrepreneurship in his Blood by @DaveBritton2 $CIGI $FSV https://link.medium.com/lYnQD1kTUEb https://link.medium.com/lYnQD1kTUEb"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1727068257214255539) 2023-11-21T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting Quote from old $WM CEO Dean buntrock on exiting international waste management (cc: $gfl $wcn)"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1749143316124586040) 2024-01-21T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"re: @muddywatersre report on $FFH.TO They are missing the mark on this one. Going through a few of the key points below. They identify that Fairfax BVPS CAGR has fallen short of its 15% target. So what During 2010-2016 FFH generated $4.4b of hedging losses - a position they unwound after the election of the pro-business government. In [----] Prem committed to investors that he won't do this again. Combined with better underwriting results (exiting weaker lines hard market etc). Go forward BVPS growth driven by underwriting is much more likely to be persistent vs the investment gain-driven BVPS"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1755648443630928225) 2024-02-08T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LeviathanCapit1 @willis_cap how do you know what the FWA constraints are"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1756028166228128231) 2024-02-09T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""Canadian automotive assembly increased by over [---] thousand units between [----] and [----] as the recovery from the nadir of [----] continued. Four out of the five light vehicle manufacturers showed growth in [----] with Toyota leading the Canadian industry with production of [------] units followed by Honda which saw production rise [----] percent to reach a total of [------] units. The only manufacturer showing a decline was GM whose production slipped marginally to [------] units. Light vehicle assembly has long been a staple of the Canadian manufacturing environment and its continued post-pandemic"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1757778646570279034) 2024-02-14T14:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Capital One is considering a potential acquisition of Discover Financial Services in a major move to boost its credit-card offerings via @business"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1759633561743683819) 2024-02-19T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LilReadingRhino @longriver_hk URI has more national account exposure Weaker organic growth record better M&A capabilities and history. URI 25% bigger ish. URI has more locations. Sunbelt has had higher employee turnover. my URI write up may help https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/unitedrentals https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/unitedrentals"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1770204943904862328) 2024-03-19T21:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Can I pick someone's brain on $LBRDK 30% discount to NAV. https://www.ruanecunniff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Year-End-2023-Sequoia-Strategy-Letter.pdf https://www.ruanecunniff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Year-End-2023-Sequoia-Strategy-Letter.pdf"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1770212926072266900) 2024-03-19T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO $LLY "Ive been infertile for [--] years and after [--] months of taking OZ I am now pregnant" one user shared on the r/Ozempic subreddit. "So shocking to say the least." "I was on birth control and this pregnancy was very much unplanned" another wrote in the comments of a thread about Ozempic pregnancies. "I have a long history of miscarriages and a stillbirth and had decided to stop trying to conceive two years ago and during that time started Ozempic and lost [--] pounds." So prevalent is this phenomenon that Novo Nordisk which makes both has set up a website specifically for people to report"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1773327684984037611) 2024-03-28T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RYAAY vs $BA The managerial move which puts someone in charge of 737s and someone in charge of safety OLeary said smacks of corporate bullshit. Theyve appointed two very good ladies there he said but added why isnt the person in charge of 737s in charge of the fucking safety as well He went further: They have a leadership team of [----] people but thats a committee designing a fucking camel. https://fortune.com/2024/03/27/ryanair-ceo-boeing-problems-missing-seat-handles-spanners-new-management/"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1773358268078752173) 2024-03-28T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$PM $BTI https://archive.ph/2024.03.29-221153/https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/03/zyn-pouches-nicotine-candy/677920/ https://archive.ph/2024.03.29-221153/https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/03/zyn-pouches-nicotine-candy/677920/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1774107454508536084) 2024-03-30T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepSailCapital $FOUR $GFL $OTEX $EFX.TO $CPAY"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1775661331380584726) 2024-04-03T23:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Legendary gambler and hedge fund manager Edward Thorp [--] shares what hes learned about exercise diet and managing risk in all areas of life. via @BW https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-10/anti-aging-tips-from-blackjack-and-finance-guru-ed-thorputm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=6nD1PqTK https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-10/anti-aging-tips-from-blackjack-and-finance-guru-ed-thorputm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=6nD1PqTK"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1778151495197733099) 2024-04-10T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great piece on $NKE challenges. DTC sales are tracking below prior targets. Bad timing with unwinding retailer relationships as the sales environment decelerated. Reduced emphasis on lower-priced gear despite inflation headwinds to consumers. Focused too much on products that worked and innovated too little. No wonder Hoka/ON etc have gained market share. "Nike veterans said cutting off wholesale clients was one of the biggest mistakes the company has ever made. After digital sales hit the 30% of the total mark early in the pandemic they dropped back and havent reached that level sincelet"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1782910288834031744) 2024-04-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Berkshire after Buffett: can any stockpicker follow the Oracle via @ft https://www.ft.com/content/fd3b3324-d775-4e09-a916-76f2f3ac675b https://www.ft.com/content/fd3b3324-d775-4e09-a916-76f2f3ac675b"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1786063644419150085) 2024-05-02T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MSCI is apparently pushing through a 5x price increase on licenses for Canadian Asset Owners (Pensions Endowments etc). cc: @Larryjamieson_"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1790124884225364257) 2024-05-13T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. Jared Isaacman buys $5.5m in shares at $65 $FOUR https://t.co/nOMkyZRPGx https://t.co/z4eaA1XcZh Jared Isaacman buys $5.5m in shares at $65 $FOUR https://t.co/nOMkyZRPGx https://t.co/z4eaA1XcZh"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1793781854556078289) 2024-05-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Nikes retail partnerships today are constructed to connect its wholesale and DTC businesses. When the company partnered with Zalando last October for example it let shoppers link their Nike accounts to the multi-brand e-tailer to access a wider range of exclusive goods. Were still in the days where brands are realising that wholesale is incredibly important and omnichannel is incredibly important as opposed to simply making a bet on going direct said Simeon Siegel managing director and senior analyst of retail and e-commerce at BMO Capital Markets. Theyre paring back on the maniacal focus on"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1798697094527832301) 2024-06-06T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PythiaR CIBC on $GFL after meeting mgmt"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1799090003466932346) 2024-06-07T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""US public pension funds underperformed market index benchmarks by a cumulative (unannualized) five percentage points between [----] and [----]. . alternative investments as a percentage of asset value for US public pension funds between [----] and [----] increased from 9% to 29% of the total. Adjusting for market/risk exposures the public plans outperformed benchmarks by 1.2% per year from [----] to [----] but they underperformed the market by 1.2% per year from [----] to [----]. In the initial period annual alpha was [--] bps higher with each 1% increase to alternatives but in the subsequent period each 1%"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1800280701931020443) 2024-06-10T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL.to $GFL "(Bloomberg) -- Activist investor ADW Capital Management LLC is calling on waste management firm GFL Environmental Inc. to sell its environmental services division in lieu of a full sale of the company. We cannot think of any reason why the company would explore any other path than to sell its ES division ADW founder Adam Wyden said in a letter to GFLs board. New York-based ADW holds [----] million shares about 0.45% in GFL according to the letter a follow-up to one in November asking the company to either go private or sell assets to reduce its debt. While we would be in favor of"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1800909632207995392) 2024-06-12T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR CEO bought another $1m in shares. 06/14/2024 $FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. https://t.co/0Zw1kHj8Sq $FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. https://t.co/0Zw1kHj8Sq"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1802427660238299566) 2024-06-16T19:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Great thread on $COST $WMT $DG (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1805782019739369572) 2024-06-26T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great thread on $COST $WMT $DG but don't think valuation makes sense at this pt still. (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1805947579055669621) 2024-06-26T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM $SBUX pivot to drive-through and pick-up made it no longer "the third place". $NKE de-emphasized innovation/R&D instead went all in on distribution which appears to have failed IDK about the others https://x.com/MattJMcClintock/status/1779682375330353518 https://t.co/FSyQNbhanW https://x.com/MattJMcClintock/status/1779682375330353518 https://t.co/FSyQNbhanW"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1806694260281848065) 2024-06-28T14:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Baupost cuts [--] members of the investment team (real estate and equities). It comes after the [----] cut of its European office where they cut [--] RE analysts and [--] public equity. Does anyone know how bad the real estate investments were"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1806730038571659521) 2024-06-28T16:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Why aren't margins growing for $NKE despite higher DTC exposure Are there companies in the sector that have pulled off this transition more successfully CC: @54thParallel @borrowed_ideas"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1808196560217399757) 2024-07-02T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DOO.TO $PII Within the overall recreational vehicle market the small vehicle segment which is less expensive than boats or RVs caravans is often the most resilient during periods of economic downturn and higher interest rates Picard said. "That's what's happening this year in our business. Sales of motorcycles in the $15000 to $20000 range are good but it's more difficult for models in the $30000 range. In addition demand is very very strong for mountain and all-terrain bikes with electric assistance that were developed by motorcycle manufacturers that we were already dealers for" says Mr."
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1810366475162525760) 2024-07-08T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On Wednesday Dovigi rebuffed these conclusions. I am not sure Mr. Dodge is in any position to comment on the likelihood of any outcome as he has never spoken to me he wrote in the email. In a note to clients last month RBC Capital Markets analyst Sabahat Khan said a potential sale of GFLs environmental services business would serve the dual purpose of lowering the companys debt load while freeing up capital to grow its solid waste business. We are not entirely surprised that GFL is receiving buyout interest Khan wrote. At a high level we think private buyers looking to acquire waste"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1811126231993115108) 2024-07-10T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A group of bidders that includes private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds is interested in acquiring $GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) for between $44 and $46 a share CTFN reported on Monday citing two people familiar with the matter. GFL's (GFL) environmental services business also is drawing interest from buyers according to the report. GFL (GFL) is considering re-domiciling from Canada to the United States to become eligible for inclusion in U.S. equity indices. The move could attract a larger pool of capital from existing and new investors CTFN reported."
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1812953102414455183) 2024-07-15T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""A group of bidders that includes private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds is interested in acquiring $GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) for between $44 and $46 a share CTFN reported on Monday citing two people familiar with the matter. GFL's (GFL) environmental services business also is drawing interest from buyers according to the report. GFL (GFL) is considering re-domiciling from Canada to the United States to become eligible for inclusion in U.S. equity indices. The move could attract a larger pool of capital from existing and new investors CTFN reported.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1812954834846556658) 2024-07-15T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@paulcerro @cedargrovecm Hit + slugging rate on shorts seems pretty good"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1816175710136054122) 2024-07-24T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CIBC thinks $GFL could be $80 stock if they sell ES assets. 50% higher seems too bold IMO but i still see upside after the recent run"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1819502125736775951) 2024-08-02T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""A former analyst of mine has been working in commercial real estate capital markets for many years. Most deals he now works on in NYC involve sales prices of $200-$400 psf which is more reminiscent of the late 1990s/early 2000s than the pre-Covid period when such buildings would have sold for $500-$1000 psf. He also reports that many deals entail buildings sold for less than their debt value with sellers having to provide attractive financing to new buyers (e.g. 65% LTV @ 5%)." - Michael Cembalest EOTM"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1821295822530552308) 2024-08-07T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""The Canadian used wholesale market experienced a decline of 0.29% in prices for the week. Car segments pricing decreased by 0.43% while the Truck/SUVs segments dropped -0.16% once again.Full-Size Pickups and Compact Cars saw price increases of +0.51% and +0.09%.The largest declines noted were seen in Near Luxury Car with 0.87% followed by Luxury Car at 0.47% and Mid-SizeCrossover/SUVs at 0.41%. ""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1831394875092430961) 2024-09-04T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL.TO "Private-equity bidders have valued the unit at between $6.5 billion and $7 billion CTFN has previously reported. The unit has seen interest for the entire business and GFL also received a C$2 billion offer for a 30% stake in the division according to CTFN. Potential strategic buyers include Republic Services (RSG) Waste Connections (WCN) and Casella Waste Systems (CWST). Bids for the environmental-services business are due by the third week of October according to the report." $GFL GFL expected to start sale of environmental-services unit this week - CTFN scoop"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833175896188153911) 2024-09-09T16:09Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements
"$ACQ.TO sells two Stellantis dealerships in Ponoka AB and Airdrie AB. "This divestiture is the first strategic move we're making as part of AutoCanada's realignment. We are taking actions that allow us to concentrate our resources and efforts to improve core operations optimize our cost structure strengthen profitability and reduce leverage." Proceeds will be used to reduce leverage. Transaction is accretive to adj. EBITDA margins and EPS. Sale should put Stellantis revenue exposure on TTM basis 20-22%. vs 25% before"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1833901528895168688) 2024-09-11T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"from Volaris "The next generation of experts will see AI as a co-intelligence in the long game of compounding knowledge." $CSU.TO https://explore.volarisgroup.com/volaris-group-blog/the-long-game-of-expertise-and-how-ai-might-change-things https://explore.volarisgroup.com/volaris-group-blog/the-long-game-of-expertise-and-how-ai-might-change-things"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1841499547358433312) 2024-10-02T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A Love Letter to the Stock Market (and others) by @ChapTwelveCap https://chaptertwelve.substack.com/p/a-love-letter-to-the-stock-market https://chaptertwelve.substack.com/p/a-love-letter-to-the-stock-market"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1841528954059944351) 2024-10-02T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(1/n) Post out on $FOUR today (link in bio). This is a remarkable Payment's success story. Lead by @rookisaacman. He started one of the predecessor companies back out of high school and has grown it from nothing to $900m in net revenues. The firm has delivered double digit growth since the earlier 2000s"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844075372389785750) 2024-10-09T18:00Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements
"(2/n) I believe their payment offering is higher quality more reliable and has lower total costs relative to its primary competitor Toast $TOST. Shift4 has demonstrated a remarkable capability to expand into new verticals and into new geographies. Most of these verticals have some niche characteristics to them - the best example of this is likely VenueNext or The Giving Block. Growth prospects are underappreciated and the runway in Europe seems very long given recent M&A"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1844075374608552006) 2024-10-09T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(4/n) Shift4 is also way better at investing its $'s than competitors. Peers have shown much lower GP conversion over the prior [--] years. Culturally as an organization they manage spend very tightly and work aggressively to keep headcount growth at modest levels. They are willing to "aggressively delete parts. Parts can be legacy products internal systems and other costly expenses that dont fit within our plan.""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844075378492821699) 2024-10-09T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PUB.FP "WPP has been outsmarted by its old rival Publicis" https://www.ft.com/content/271f072d-30d7-4c5c-b219-1701f7411fb1 https://www.ft.com/content/271f072d-30d7-4c5c-b219-1701f7411fb1"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1847385304380166341) 2024-10-18T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-gfl-fires-suspected-arson/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-gfl-fires-suspected-arson/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1849796940642279630) 2024-10-25T12:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR CEO on competitive landscape. https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/shiftfour-payments-nysefour @buccocapital @JerryCap I don't agree. Payments have evolved into commerce-enabling solutions which are generally vertically specific and not as competitive as it might appear. - Table service restaurants (much more complex than fast food or cash & carry): just Toast and Shift4 - Fast food: PAR https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/shiftfour-payments-nysefour @buccocapital @JerryCap I don't agree. Payments have evolved into commerce-enabling solutions which are generally vertically specific and"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1849918561436786900) 2024-10-25T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bad Q3 guide + [--] sell-side downgrades. Macro weakness in NA delays with datacenter customer construction. Mgmt claiming orders are being pushed out not cancelled. Some delayed orders have since been delivered in Q4. Large HPC Contract (AI) still possible. Revenue down 2.6% v prior guide. Adj. EBITDA down 29% v prior guide. CFO Conversion strong at 150% of EBITDA. ERP online since beginning of month. Netsuite is working as expected so far. 18% FCF Yield using street low FCF estimate of $121. 23% using median FCF estimate of $144 for the year (2024)"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1849923608535355790) 2024-10-25T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NestBetter @compoundpapi Flexpipe is pretty tied to oil and gas completion activity. Xerxes tied to CVS fuel location growth and refurbishment/replacement activity"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1850669606148731275) 2024-10-27T22:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PD.TO is #1 land driller in Canada. #4 in USA. #1 well service provider in Canada. Also has a small operation in Middle East and Service Rigs in Canada. Basically a capital cycle thesis play. Supply of rigs in NA declined on a net basis from 2015-2023. They own a large share of tier [--] drilling rigs and utilization + pricing has continued to surprise positively over the past few years. CAD margins been 14k day and US segment margins $10k USD per day. Rig count unlikely to recover to prior cycle peaks due to improved productivity in the industry which drives higher demand for tier [--] rigs."
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1850947400820539421) 2024-10-28T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HP believes US Capacity of super-spec rigs has decreased over time - and substantial capex would be required to upgrade/activate these rigs. I don't believe net supply is being added to the market and this benefits the incumbents in the industry who have strong tier [--] assets and relationships"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1850948120936382841) 2024-10-28T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@northernbear85 @ChapTwelveCap @compoundpapi @NestBetter $PTEN believes the same - tier [--] assets will be heavily utilized going forward. Similarly targeting 50% of FCF to be returned to shareholders over time. I don't think there is net rig additions happening to the industry"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1850949260625244669) 2024-10-28T17:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"far as i know $TOT.TO 's drilling fleet is of much poorer quality that the $PD.TO or $HP. They have only [--] triples out of [--] assets. I think you are comparing apples vs oranges. Utilization rates for $PD.TO assets has been 75% for the most part in the past 12m. There is a big difference in utilization rates depending on the type of rig a company has"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1851012928654479628) 2024-10-28T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fastest Growing Bank You've Never Heard Of - $VBNK You Decide what's the bear case on this stock https://www.cluseau.com/p/the-fastest-growing-bank-youve-never https://www.cluseau.com/p/the-fastest-growing-bank-youve-never"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1853483562873331729) 2024-11-04T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GMO had a compelling pitch on Ex-China EM opportunities 1) China Consumer Confidence and Industrial Activity is depressed and hasn't recovered post pandemic. Retail Sales data suggest a very weak environment. Even Housing prices for major cities in china looks very bleak. 2) ROEs used to average 12-17% from 06-15 for the Shanghai Composite Index but have since fallen to 11%. Combined with lower growth expectations P/E multiples have remained in the 10-15x range for the majority of the past decade. 3) Investment Activity has slowed dramatically. IPO activity is at a cyclical low with [----] IPOS"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1854265752276156787) 2024-11-06T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""It has been a tale of two halves for energy stocks. Energy was the second-worst-performing sector from June [----] through September [----] with the S&P/TSX Energy sector index losing 3.6% annualized over that period" "Energy has been the best performing sector in Canada ever since. The sector index gained 28.8% annualized from October [----] through September [----]. For comparison the second-best sector was financials which rose 19.0% annualized over the same period. Canadian managers werent around to benefit from the turnaround. Exhibit [--] shows both the relative performance of the S&P/TSX Energy"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1854554133946364220) 2024-11-07T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""Historically a constant lack of commodity exposure can overshadow even a great Canadian stock-picker. A nimbler and more flexible approach to these sectors makes a fund more robust to different market environments in Canada." Via Morningstar's "The Canadian Conundrum" report"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1854555072660722015) 2024-11-07T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"do public markets outperform private markets Perplexity response Private markets particularly private equity have generally outperformed public markets over the past two decades. Despite higher fees private equity funds have consistently delivered superior net returns compared to public equities such as the S&P [-----]. This outperformance is attributed to factors like illiquidity premiums active management and access to a broader range of investment opportunities13. However private markets require skilled management and involve higher risks due to less liquidity and transparency compared to"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1855264058636714014) 2024-11-09T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Q: in order to hit your 20% after-tax IRR target it does imply that EBITDA could go up call it $25 million to $30 million. Is that a fair statement And what is your expectation on timeline at hitting that 20% target A: Yes. So what I would say is that at conservative levels this reaches close to our 20% target. So obviously we can't talk about exact numbers. And as I said we'll give better visibility as we get into the end of the year reporting. So I would just encourage you to maybe modify or be a little modest with some of those expectations in the near term. There are significant"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1856063205405065599) 2024-11-11T19:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"*SEVEN & I IS SAID TO CONSIDER $58 BILLION MANAGEMENT BUYOUT $ATD $3382.JP Seven & i rumored to be considering [--] tn yen MBO with Itochu and founding family. That's 56% premium over today's share price and more than 100% premium to share price before this Couche-tard saga. Reminder that Itochu also owns Family Mart. Seven & i rumored to be considering [--] tn yen MBO with Itochu and founding family. That's 56% premium over today's share price and more than 100% premium to share price before this Couche-tard saga. Reminder that Itochu also owns Family Mart"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856543896345464900) 2024-11-13T03:45Z [----] followers, 22.9K engagements
"cc @SleepwellCap https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/rolex-submariner-watches-globally-near-50-billion-market-valuesrnd=undefined https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/rolex-submariner-watches-globally-near-50-billion-market-valuesrnd=undefined"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1857486599107334438) 2024-11-15T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Shift4 Q3 [----] Earnings Review on the SS link in bio"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1857905557811732944) 2024-11-16T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR joining S&P MidCap [---] https://press.spglobal.com/2024-11-15-Shift4-Payments-Set-to-Join-the-S-P-MidCap-400 https://press.spglobal.com/2024-11-15-Shift4-Payments-Set-to-Join-the-S-P-MidCap-400"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1858546214062420100) 2024-11-18T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MATR.TO (EBITDA - Operating Leases - Capex)/Sales vs Premium Industrial Product Manufacturer Peers"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1858894652138525172) 2024-11-19T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The source said D&D received four conditional takeover bids all in the low to mid $20s range in the second round of a process being handled by investment bank Goldman Sachs. One of the bids came from Pexa while three came from North American private equity firms the source said. But when Goldman Sachs approached two of D&Ds largest shareholder Mawer Investment Management and EdgePoint Wealth Management to gauge their potential support for the bids on the table which included the prospect of rolling some of their shares over in a transaction they said no the source said." $DND.TO"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1859275553448046731) 2024-11-20T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap FICO Bloomberg multiple as of today"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1860499745304682628) 2024-11-24T01:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PythiaR @sharpe2_0 https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1845696565530468596s=19 Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking at the chart below it is clear that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to prevent growth from weakening further. https://t.co/5oEC0exJ6k https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1845696565530468596s=19 Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking at the chart below it is clear that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1862187524501704786) 2024-11-28T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$INTC "Intel Stock Pops After CEO Gelsinger Retires. Shares Have Fallen 61% During His Tenure.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1863619086346830328) 2024-12-02T16:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This one is funny. Closed a deal before regulatory approval - then they don't get approval. Shortly after forced to sell at a loss of 50m GBP. $DND"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864036990250877172) 2024-12-03T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jared out at $FOUR as he accepts Nomination for NASA Administrator. Taylor Lauber named as successor. Hate to see it Probably most negative for the M&A Strategy going forward"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864378515182752244) 2024-12-04T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Equities rarely do what most expect. Market forecasters were historically dour at 2024s start. Updated forecasts have simply followed the market higher and remain very cautious.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1864819739631010088) 2024-12-05T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""The US government has run up huge deficits recently. Many fear excessive spending could cause economic problems and weak equity returns going forward. However historically equities have thrived after deficit troughs. ""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1864823320853536848) 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""Over the past [--] months corporate earnings growth has been dominated by a few sectors. Looking forward earnings look set to accelerate with all sectors participating.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1864823323193991357) 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""China stimulus announcements have been substantial but may not be enough to heal the Chinese economy or drive a new bull market. However stimulus optimism may be enough to drive a meaningful rally in Chinese equities. During Japans long stretch of underperformance following the late-1980s property bubble numerous stimulus programs failed to drive a sustained bull market but did help fuel meaningful rallies.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1864823325383389670) 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Black Friday + Cyber Monday sales +24% YoY according $SHOP"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1865062998093525194) 2024-12-06T15:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR https://open.substack.com/pub/aletteraday/p/letter-242-jared-isaacman-2020utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2aa6qw https://open.substack.com/pub/aletteraday/p/letter-242-jared-isaacman-2020utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2aa6qw"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1865514388922536079) 2024-12-07T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""One residential construction worker would have to produce nearly three-quarters of a home each year to meet the federal governments [----] housing goal a number of homes-per-worker nearly two-times higher than todays average" "From [----] to [----] housing starts-per-job have declined from [----] to [----]. In [----] [------] workers produced just [------] housing starts. That's the lowest rate since [----] despite more than [------] additional residential construction jobs being added since then.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1866158714237202913) 2024-12-09T16:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Purchase consideration was $10.4m USD + up to additional $50m USD contingent upon certain upside price scenarios. "Immediate pre-tax cash flows of $30m USD per month" Bought at an annualized pre-tax CF multiple of 0.16x (60/ (30*12)) Is there a step up in capex or something odd going on with taxes why were they able to get these assets for so cheap"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1866194465909555519) 2024-12-09T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Jared donating 1% of his shares to Renaissance Charitable Foundation Inc $FOUR"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1866249993511895396) 2024-12-09T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"StorageVault Canada $SVI.TO worth a look here IMO Leader in canadian self storage business and fastest growing storage business in Canada. Market share of 8-8.5% with next largest competitor in the 2.5% range Trades at 26% Discount to NAV (w/ 5.3% implied cap rate). Trades at P/FFO of 16.7x and stock is off from prior high of $7.21. Stock trades at discount to US Peers (which are under levered) but $SVI.TO has superior growth profile and consolidation opportunities. Spread relative to government rates looks attractive on multi-year basis. Residential sales activity should pick up as rates"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866966967548260515) 2024-12-11T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FT Partners on $FOUR"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867597061463716162) 2024-12-13T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ENGH.TO acquires Aculab PLC which generated $8.3m CAD in revenues on TTM basis as of June [----]. Revenues were down 10% YoY"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1868797928665649346) 2024-12-16T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sharing a few notes from a recent interview with a former executive of Prysmian Group a competitor to Nexans (prior owner of the AmerCable asset). $MATR.TO"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1870144911460208659) 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, 11.9K engagements
"1) low voltage market characterized by 1kV to 3kV. Use cases are large inside buildings. Largest part of the market at 50% 100-130b vs total cable market at 250b. 2)medium voltage market largely cables used for power grids within cities - ie connecting between buildings from high voltage power and then stepping it down to low voltage that's used at a house/building"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1870144913460891937) 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3) AmerCable not present in high voltage market or medium voltage for distribution grid. They have very strong and high market share in O&G and mining. They are leaders in the space along with Prysmian - each had 25% share in mining (50% combined). AmerCable is #2 in O&G second to Nova"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1870144915033694515) 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🚩 "Carvanas toxic loan book is a result of lax underwriting standards: We actually approved 100% of the applicants interview with a former Carvana director describing virtually non-existent underwriting standards. " "For example Carvanas increase in borrower extensions is enabled by its loan servicer an affiliate of private car dealership DriveTime run by Carvanas CEOs father. The company seems to be avoiding reporting higher delinquencies by granting loan extensions instead. " "With Ally Quietly Pulling Back In Q2 and Q3 [----] Carvana Sold $800 Million In Receivables To A New Unnamed Buyer"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1874849173880660350) 2025-01-02T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MATR.TO closes on acquisition of AmerCable Jan 2nd. The addition of AmerCable to our portfolio positions Mattr as a premier provider of highly engineered wire and cable technologies across the North American marketplace said Mike Reeves Mattrs President and CEO. AmerCables broad portfolio of low and medium-voltage electrical power control and instrumentation cable solutions expands and complements Mattrs existing range of Shawflex branded products. We are excited to welcome the talented employees of AmerCable to the Mattr team."
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1874849557302919373) 2025-01-02T16:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(1/n) Some Additional notes from an Expert Call with an Executive at Prysmian Group (a $MATR.TO competitor) Nexans strategy was shift to high voltage electrification ie transport of energy from gen to distribution. Versus competitors they were less integrated and industrial market has many more niche applications + diversification vs broader grid build out exposure. Expert believed bigger cable players also looking to buy into additional niches"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1874926327234801761) 2025-01-02T21:10Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"$MA SpendingPulse for [----]. Consumer still spending $$ Retail Excl. Auto +3.8% Online +6.7% and Offline +2.9%"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1875208096810934298) 2025-01-03T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BF.B short Adam Patinkin of David Capital Partners LLC has worked great. Also not touched on here but have helped meaningfully has been narrative shift with GLP1 research driving lower alcohol consumption. US Surgeon General report on links to cancer adds fuel to fire. BF multiple gone from 30x to 15.1x now matches SPX market multiple. https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1875224581566259452 https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1875224581566259452"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1875361615412871409) 2025-01-04T02:00Z [----] followers, 30K engagements
"$GFL $GFL.TO (Bloomberg) -- A consortium backed by Apollo Global Management Inc. and BC Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake in GFL Environmental Inc.s environmental services unit in a deal that could value the business at about C$8 billion ($5.6 billion) including debt people familiar with the matter said. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/01/06/apollo-bc-partners-near-deal-for-56-billion-gfl-environmental-services-unit/ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/01/06/apollo-bc-partners-near-deal-for-56-billion-gfl-environmental-services-unit/"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1876390845064024322) 2025-01-06T22:10Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"$GFL.TO $GFL deal to sell ES is neat. Company gets monetize ES Segment but still retains 44% interest lever it back up to 5.5-6x. Mgmt sees path to grow ES segment EBITDA to 875-950m through M&A and organically over next 5Y. Equity + Debt holders both like they deal given credit upgrades improved FCF deleveraging adds M&A potential back into picture"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1876653317146702239) 2025-01-07T15:33Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"@PythiaR @bizalmanac The comments from GFL call said he thought he could buy it back at 9-10x in [--] years. what am i missing"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1876653884544000267) 2025-01-07T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VLE.TO trades at 1.2x EV/EBITDA 1.5x EV/Operating CF and 20% FCF Yield on Cannacord [----] estimates. Estimated to be net cash balance sheet position of $397m by YE2025"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1877020353760739361) 2025-01-08T15:51Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements
"$MU "An industry insider familiar with Microns situation said Micron is conducting the final facility evaluation for 16-layer products and Once the test is complete a full-scale purchase order (PO) for the essential process equipment will follow. This is a very fast pace. There is no precedent for commercialization of HBM3E 16-layer yet. Currently the highest number is HBM3E 12-layer which SK Hynix is supplying to NVIDIA. HBM has better performance as the number of layers increases. However manufacturing becomes more difficult. Since more DRAMs must be stacked processes such as heat"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1879302554070196480) 2025-01-14T23:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@peter_mantas @Overlevered_AM @PythiaR FWIW"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1880380361244553485) 2025-01-17T22:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MikeFritzell @longriver_hk @HaydenCapital did anyone talk about similarities or differences vs Russia"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1880637929317687433) 2025-01-18T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5) "IDFA and social video have led mobile gaming to lose 2.6% of its share of all digital media among US adults since [----] (a 17% down in time)""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754415163642009) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6) For each $100 in sales $RBLX pays app stores $22 and loses $35 on a GAAP basis. Being the app store seems to be one of the best places to be from an industry perspective"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754418540056643) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10) Price per game has declined over time in real terms. Recent hikes of $10 have fallen in nominal terms due to high inflation. Other categories saw much clearer increases in real pricing over LT"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754432918200813) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"11) unclear that the pricing dynamics will change a lot. Lots of competition for consumer entertainment + alternatives to gaming. F2P titles are overly popular piracy skew towards buying games on sale and what might be structural underpricing all play a factor"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754437385154942) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"12) costs to develop a AAA game have grown materially. COD used to cost $50m in [----] but this increased in [----] to $550m. gross"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754441428390077) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"15) due to combination of lower customer interest swelling development costs and lower VC investment support all of the large players are now publishing on other major channels. Playstation MAUs now include PC same with Xbox"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754451670946169) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"16) are video games stuck in a "doom" loop Exceptions include $RBLX which continue to diversify by age and steadily growing # of hours played. Actively Monthly Users of 350m is huge vs other ecosystems"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1881754455311557083) 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"why hasn't $BUR $BUR.LN worked (yet)"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881776621566534120) 2025-01-21T18:51Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"Silver Beech Capital Q2/2024 letter excerpt on $BUR https://docsend.com/view/d898zygb96cnq4k6 https://docsend.com/view/d898zygb96cnq4k6"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881779470069309807) 2025-01-21T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Old news but $FEVR "Shares in Fevertree were boosted by reports that consumer goods colossus Unilever was looking to buy Fevertree while analysts at Jefferies also began coverage of the London-listed company with a 'buy' recommendation. Unilever will try to snap up the mixers maker for "at least [--] per share" the Telegraph reported with rumours rising after Fevertree appointed Kevin Havelock Unilever's global president of refreshment as a non-executive director last week. https://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/Fevertree-shoots-higher-on-bid-speculation-an-news26953517.html#google_vignette"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1882562533262799048) 2025-01-23T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$C up +100% from [----] low. Now at 0.75x P/BV"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1882890841502675237) 2025-01-24T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Giroux on Revitty $RVTY"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1883902334377554418) 2025-01-27T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New Post out on $FEVR.LN TLDR: Market too pessimistic on long term growth prospects margin recovery and portfolio adaption potential. I see a 16% IRR from today's price. Full report linked below let me know of any feedback questions or comments on the report. https://tinyurl.com/38h8f4rb https://tinyurl.com/38h8f4rb"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1884710292648505459) 2025-01-29T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FEVR trading update OK at 4% YoY. US growth accelerating vs H1 and on a FY basis was up 12% on CC basis. Europe softer due to weather and weak consumer. Non-tonics continue to perform well and maintained #1 value share position in off-trade. ROW benefited from Australia business being established with +22% growth"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1884994279363301784) 2025-01-30T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BBU $BBU.TO "Since going public we have generated over $6 billion in proceeds from the sale of over [--] businesses realizing a 3x multiple of our invested capital and an IRR of approximately 30%. These excellent returns are proof of the effectiveness of our strategy.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1885331941672579250) 2025-01-31T14:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto donation opportunity for $FOUR still looks like its in early stages $2b in crypto was donated to non-profits in T5Y but $1b in last year. Top 70% of charities now accept crypto for donations up 25% from the prior year. Average donation of $11k was up 386% YoY They believe giving potential for crypto is $2.5b in 2025"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1887163057685553384) 2025-02-05T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CIGI getting lots of interest in IM business. Spin optionality still there. Sell off today seems at odds w/ LT trajectory of business. Stock at 12.3x EV/EBITDA today or 18.6x F P/E"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1887579968323956792) 2025-02-06T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Brookfield "Active Investing Continues to Go Passive Offering Us Great Opportunity" $BN $BAM"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1890082889339138545) 2025-02-13T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crescent Rock Capital Performance of ideas since Nov 10th [----] G&D Interview. $KBR $MRO.LN $GXI.GR $6707.JP"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1894031223925670254) 2025-02-24T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LAD Figures from G&D Pitch from Fall 2023"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1896290218027958292) 2025-03-02T20:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"is this how musk kills all his competitors CC: $GM $F $STLA Bernstein models that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds $2700 per car would wipe out 65% of GM's FCF and lead to lower profits and lower investment in the US. https://t.co/NRCjwWSPwz Bernstein models that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds $2700 per car would wipe out 65% of GM's FCF and lead to lower profits and lower investment in the US. https://t.co/NRCjwWSPwz"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1896688075541275112) 2025-03-03T22:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GreenhavenRoad on $BUR.LN $BUR https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/67c1bf36804ffe58f087a896/1740750647415/Greenhaven+Road+-+2024+Q4+FINAL.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/67c1bf36804ffe58f087a896/1740750647415/Greenhaven+Road+-+2024+Q4+FINAL.pdf"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1896704704023015807) 2025-03-03T23:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RJ on $FOUR "Simply put with stock now trading at just 9x our pro-forma 2026E stated EBITDA (10x adj for CaC + Equip. D&A) and 13x fully taxed FCF despite normalized 20%+ FCF growth we believe FOUR represents the most favorable risk/reward opportunity across our coverage.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1899147936938013157) 2025-03-10T17:18Z [----] followers, 33.1K engagements
"Economist Profile on @rookisaacman $FOUR"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1901355843498786830) 2025-03-16T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$YETI board news - seems like a big deal. I think they have immaterial sales in Europe vs Thule which has a ton of relationships they can leverage. Very possible over the next 12-24m we see a step change in the growth rate and contribute from international sales. International Sales mix was 18% in [----] but this is almost entirely Australia + Canada. https://investors.yeti.com/news/news-details/2025/YETI-to-Appoint-J--Magnus-Welander-and-Arne-Arens-to-Companys-Board-of-Directors/default.aspx"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1901755545641709576) 2025-03-17T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"anyone familiar with engaged capital what do you think priorities shift to now that they on the board https://engagedcapital.com/meet-the-team/ https://engagedcapital.com/pressreleases/ $YETI board news - seems like a big deal. I think they have immaterial sales in Europe vs Thule which has a ton of relationships they can leverage. Very possible over the next 12-24m we see a step change in the growth rate and contribute from international sales. International https://t.co/sxBfcTwHcS https://engagedcapital.com/meet-the-team/ https://engagedcapital.com/pressreleases/ $YETI board news - seems"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1901759595317752115) 2025-03-17T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@prometheus_eq @rookisaacman he's going to be the next Administrator at NASA"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1902061545598939623) 2025-03-18T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AlphaSeeker84 post on $SIG worth a read. https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/signet-jewelers-a-deeply-undervalued https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/signet-jewelers-a-deeply-undervalued"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1904267337798431034) 2025-03-24T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SHOP believed to be most impacted from De minimis exemption ending"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1908167623675933040) 2025-04-04T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BUR sees potential to 20% ROEs over next cycle. Trades at 0.93x P/BV / 7x P/E"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1908211667965796441) 2025-04-04T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's a huge chunk of the revenue base for lots of countries not sure many would be able to operate without it Via Grok "VAT is a cornerstone of fiscal policy in Europe often rivaling income tax as a primary revenue source. For instance posts on X and various analyses suggest it funds 30-40% of government spending in some EU countries though this varies with tax policy and economic conditions. EU Level: The VAT-based contribution to the EU budget is relatively modest compared to GNI-based resources and traditional own resources like customs duties (about 14.7% in 2017). In [----] the EU budget"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1909585278702080221) 2025-04-08T12:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$atd.to 3382:JP ATD:CN #mergers #japan How likely is it that Couche-Tard will give up its pursuit of Seven & I Join the members of Lighthouse for daily news on mergers activism and more. Sign up at https://t.co/RzmptmbXGr https://t.co/C7M7hzs0zz 3382:JP ATD:CN #mergers #japan How likely is it that Couche-Tard will give up its pursuit of Seven & I Join the members of Lighthouse for daily news on mergers activism and more. Sign up at https://t.co/RzmptmbXGr https://t.co/C7M7hzs0zz"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1909591384379847048) 2025-04-08T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR Opening statement of President Trumps nominee for NASA Administrator Jared Rook Isaacman. https://t.co/9xYWFc3s1b Opening statement of President Trumps nominee for NASA Administrator Jared Rook Isaacman. https://t.co/9xYWFc3s1b"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1910062681039749476) 2025-04-09T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR on Applebees @TomSmith839 @jevgenijs Applebees was an old Merchant Link gateway-only account that left many years ago to some custom POS not Shift4. Such a bad take from analysts - I saw one this morning thinking they were using Revel and that our cross sell strategy wasn't working--wrong. @TomSmith839 @jevgenijs Applebees was an old Merchant Link gateway-only account that left many years ago to some custom POS not Shift4. Such a bad take from analysts - I saw one this morning thinking they were using Revel and that our cross sell strategy wasn't working--wrong"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1912124243065839892) 2025-04-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"" I'm not saying the only reason part of the reason the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor was because the US US cut off their access to oil so they were going to starve their economy. So they had to they had to attack us to stop that and to stop that. ""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1912972185100321152) 2025-04-17T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AXP trading in-line with EW S&P500 now but just 8-10% EPS guide for 2025"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1913005127440687349) 2025-04-17T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"what happened to $FTRE -85% T1Y Basis. Starboard Value Pitch from October 2023"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1914387224889860513) 2025-04-21T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR @Shift4 Question for the incoming CEO: With the founder almost out of the picture can you help us get our arms around the organic growth profile for the business @Shift4 Question for the incoming CEO: With the founder almost out of the picture can you help us get our arms around the organic growth profile for the business"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1916877764118118410) 2025-04-28T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mastercard Takes Corpay Cross-Border Payments Stake In High-Value Partnership via @forbes $CPAY old $FLT "Mastercard and Corpay have today announced a partnership that sees Mastercard take a minority stake and invest in Corpays cross-border payments business while bolstering the capabilities of the Mastercard Move platform. "Under the agreement which follows previous collaboration between the companies Mastercard is paying $300m for an approximately 3% stake in Corpays cross-border payments business representing an enterprise valuation for the unit of $10.7bn." The deal valued the cross"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1917270610721529914) 2025-04-29T17:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"new post out on $AOS let me know if questions or feedback on the report would love to engage"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1917354866432958880) 2025-04-29T23:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ThomasBraziel what's different on UL pricing power vs other certifications ( Don't know the space sorry if a stupid question) EBITDA Margins look similar vs SGS Bureau Veritas Intertek and Eurofins"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1919816336013983947) 2025-05-06T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"once proclaimed mega compounder $UNH no longer +47% T5Y Basis S&P500 +110% S&P Healthcare Index +48.5% related piece "But the reality is that UnitedHealth has succeeded brilliantly in capturing a large percentage of the new enrollees in Medicare Advantage over the past several years and the company is now finding there were greater risks than its executives imagined in signing up everybody who applied." https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-groups-91-billion-first https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-groups-91-billion-first"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1920191299493507478) 2025-05-07T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL adds [--] Yr ROIC Improvement and FCF Per Share to LT Incentive Program"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920932043854143610) 2025-05-09T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Boomerang CEOs lose on Average $UNH $DIS"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1922776260305973597) 2025-05-14T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"what are the $BKNG bulls saying about this hotel bookings natively on perplexity are quietly growing. it's one of the under-the-radar features we have right now that has a massive potential to disrupt the ad industry. google's second biggest adword category i think. hotel bookings natively on perplexity are quietly growing. it's one of the under-the-radar features we have right now that has a massive potential to disrupt the ad industry. google's second biggest adword category i think"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1923125122119966823) 2025-05-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""It is indeed a great paradox: the more the Constellation Software seems less willing to extract value from minority shareholders the higher the CSU multiple perhaps ended up being." $CSU.TO MBI has some very good criticisms on management incentives compensation and excess pay here. Nice work MBI MBI has some very good criticisms on management incentives compensation and excess pay here. Nice work MBI"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1925226889591021838) 2025-05-21T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Edgepoint on $TMO "we finished the work in january and it was too expensive. couldn't see we were getting the growth for free. then in march the volatility and april. the business went on sale for a price we were willing to pay." "maybe i'll just step back and talk about why the opportunity exists. what you sometimes see is that their is a synergistic effect of concerns. What i mean by that if a sector has one big concern investors will take the time to understand it. If the sector there are two big concerns fewer investors will take the time to understand the concerns. If you get three or"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925677751752679715) 2025-05-22T22:18Z [----] followers, 46.2K engagements
"David Barr on $DND.TO DB: I mean stock's just languishing it's down to $8-9 Matt has I think public press release he wants to buy the company for $20 um you know I kind of ask myself why he does that when a stock is trading at $9 AK: tells you the market is giving that offer no credibility exactly DB: like you know I I'm not going to tender my shares to Matt at $20 um because I think this business and the reason Matt wants to do it is he knows private equity would pay $25 plus for this business all day long and so here we are this I mean with the turmoil like there's a whole bunch of"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927096701954695222) 2025-05-26T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CB pushes back on litigation financers - negative for those associated with $BUR.LN $BUR ()"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1927754225192210800) 2025-05-28T15:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The White House is pulling the nomination of Jared Isaacman to be the next NASA administrator just days before he was set to receive a confirmation vote in the Senate according to three people familiar with the matter and confirmed by the administration." $FOUR"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1928928236626424103) 2025-05-31T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jared apparently explains what happened with his nomination at NASA $FOUR listening now"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1930373615507386687) 2025-06-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jared @rookisaacman apparently explains what happened with his nomination at NASA . listening now $four"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930373616342053170) 2025-06-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@bizalmanac @focusonquality_ I think they'd be interested at the right price / structure"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1931096570646376592) 2025-06-06T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In Toronto later this month. If anyone wants to meet up for a drink or dinner 23-27th let me know $YYZ DMs open"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1932508793570750958) 2025-06-10T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR presented at RBC's FinTech Conference a few takeaways: 65% employee base outside of the USA pro-forma GB deal Multi-class shares remain in place. Jared still controls the business. Trends in may relative consistent with past 18m modest YoY increases in Hotels. Modest declines in restaurants. Things look generally quite healthy More distribution has been insourced over time to account for better growth opportunities in select markets IE Florida New York Boston Chicago. Otherwise for lower density market opportunities. For SMB market still will work with partners (ISVs etc) variable costs"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932512054365360492) 2025-06-10T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GB x $FOUR @JerryCap We worked on GB multiple times over the years--it was always attractive as a standalone. The fact that it also comes with scarce payment rails a half-trillion in cross-sell volume & air cover to sell our products into new geographic markets is the bonus. @JerryCap We worked on GB multiple times over the years--it was always attractive as a standalone. The fact that it also comes with scarce payment rails a half-trillion in cross-sell volume & air cover to sell our products into new geographic markets is the bonus"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1932522936885551563) 2025-06-10T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"why did $TOST win Topgolf as a client last quarter Wouldn't this fall squarely into $FOUR wheelhouse of S&E expertise - Shift4 has a number of large enviable golf course customers what am I missing cc: @rookisaacman @Shift4 @JerryCap @TomSmith839"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1933304298794062177) 2025-06-12T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BUR $BUR.LN "The House version of the bill as passed makes no reference to litigation finance while the Senate draft version includes a provision that aims to increase the statutory tax rate on litigation finance transactions.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1934987721166192887) 2025-06-17T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The Senate draft of the budget reconciliation bill released on June [--] included language notably supported by Senator Tillis (R-NC) that would potentially increase the tax rate on litigation finance activities to 41%." "The outcome of the legislation is of course uncertain and the provision also reads to us as though proceeds rather than pre-tax income could be taxable. There is also a 50% withholding element though our initial take is that would probably affect cash IRS taxes more than GAAP taxes (which drive EPS). Before this BUR shares were up marginally YTD but intraday today BUR shares"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1935024066521612339) 2025-06-17T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BMO buys burgundy for $625m. 2.3% EV/AUM Bank of Montreal is buying Burgundy Asset Management bolstering its wealth management unit by adding an established Canadian firm with C$27 billion under management https://t.co/VTQAHEYI35 Bank of Montreal is buying Burgundy Asset Management bolstering its wealth management unit by adding an established Canadian firm with C$27 billion under management https://t.co/VTQAHEYI35"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935680697383215134) 2025-06-19T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Evolving market dynamics structures and incentives have the potential to accelerate stablecoins trajectory to reach $2tn in market cap by 2028""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1936105484408463603) 2025-06-20T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The bill mandates that these stablecoins must be fully backed on a 1:1 basis with U.S. dollars or other approved high-quality liquid assets such as Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Additionally stablecoin issuers must maintain public redemption policies and take necessary steps to ensure price stability relative to the U.S. dollar"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1936167887338885608) 2025-06-20T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR x goes [----] on SmartPay "NYSE: FOUR) a leader in integrated payments and commerce technology has announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Smartpay (NZX:SPY ASX:SMP) a leading independent provider of payment processing and point-of-sale solutions in Australia and New Zealand for NZ$296.4 million ($180m USD) or NZ$1.20 per share. This represents a 46.5% premium " $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936903434516717903) 2025-06-22T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR SWOT Analysis from ChatGPT.o3 Debt estimates #'s are wrong fyi"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1939749771578941615) 2025-06-30T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR SWOT analysis from Gemini2.5xPro Weaknesses identifies customer service technical support and uptime as areas to improve"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1939753454853058674) 2025-06-30T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR If you follow me for space aviation defense or the occasional political take--no need to read further. This book of a post is for the fintech nerds. Since I passed on the joy of the quarterly investor letters to @tlaubers I will use the closing of @Shift4s largest If you follow me for space aviation defense or the occasional political take--no need to read further. This book of a post is for the fintech nerds. Since I passed on the joy of the quarterly investor letters to @tlaubers I will use the closing of @Shift4s largest"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1940796508510810513) 2025-07-03T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"potential bear market starting in CAD auto market "On the other end of the spectrum the luxury passenger car segment saw a precipitous 46.9% decrease while the intermediate passenger car segment saw a 33.6% decline. The volatile sport segment saw an 18.9% decrease in sales although Q2 results fared better than Q1." $ACQ.TO"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1942954275057041710) 2025-07-09T14:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap re: $GPN "Integration Challenges and Execution Risks""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1943692955560054834) 2025-07-11T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap yeah spaghetti situation is worrisome synergies seem reasonable IMO"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1943694517510819853) 2025-07-11T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap @JerryCap $GPN x Worldpay Synergies"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1943696453844787686) 2025-07-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FT on Elliot in $GPN https://www.ft.com/content/07ed4eab-99b0-4c90-b47e-7bf0970a0fb5 "Elliott Management builds stake in $GPN in wake of Worldpay deal" https://www.ft.com/content/07ed4eab-99b0-4c90-b47e-7bf0970a0fb5 "Elliott Management builds stake in $GPN in wake of Worldpay deal""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945228392539775453) 2025-07-15T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Accenture Rumored to buy WPP $ACN $WPP.LN https://www.prweek.com/article/1925604/accenture-wpp-discussed-potential-m-a-deal https://www.prweek.com/article/1925604/accenture-wpp-discussed-potential-m-a-deal"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1945228908078530693) 2025-07-15T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The $FICO Monopoly Is Living on Borrowed Time "For now FICO retains formidable advantages and deep integration into financial infrastructure. But the days of100%+ price increases are probably over. In the battle between monopoly profits and regulatory pressure the regulators usually win.""
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945501909558968780) 2025-07-16T15:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Main objections to $GPN (Worldpay) offering"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1946204247974105369) 2025-07-18T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""However sales growth has slowed significantly since [----] now below the core acquiring market's high-single growth rate implying market share loss to disruptors like Stripe Fiserv's Clover Shopify and others. That is all very interesting but not what this activist campaign is about. This is about a company that made a poorly received "bet the farm" acquisition and is now at an inflection point that will determine its future." $GPN"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947043557468184697) 2025-07-20T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GPN " Worldpay in terms of protected market share they're not going to lose their market share overnight. If anything if they don't continue to try to innovate through acquisitions or building it's going to be like a death by a thousand cuts but it's going to be slow. If I was invested in Worldpay today then I would at least have peace of mind that "Okay Worldpay is not going to lose significant market share overnight."""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947299020038083029) 2025-07-21T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Historically good sales trends from bank channels integration solutions (Mercury) - rev share incentive helps with bank partners. Incremental growth opportunity should be much easier excl. USA"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947309420926407034) 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Who's going to gain the most incremental traction or market share going forward"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947309423732384137) 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why FreedomPay and Shift4 $FOUR "Shift4 is the only provider along with Adyen that has out-of-the-box integrations. Unless the merchant wants to wait and hopefully these other providers are willing to either pay for and build the integration to that point of sale if they want something that's just out of the box that's already proven with other merchants then Shift4 or Adyen are the only two choices.""
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947309426789974368) 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's your favorite healthcare stock Why"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1947358427011027115) 2025-07-21T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"but believe due to high self pay repaired vehicles and TLV/ELVs are cyclically pressuring claims numbers "Decline in repairable claims is cyclical not structural" $LKQ $BYD.TO"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1948391389437292978) 2025-07-24T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JimmyDaGreek76 ya has been a tailwind for those two - unclear what the go forward CAGR / impact though"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1948395756131701021) 2025-07-24T14:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""Google is the only company with an at-scale ASIC alternative to Nvidia GPUs which should give them a meaningful cost advantage; to that end to the extent that cloud compute becomes commoditized is the extent to which Google actually has a margin advantage." $GOOGL"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1948443480289903045) 2025-07-24T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VLE.TO roughly 8x'd its gross acreage in Thailand through a farm-in agreement with PTTEP (60% owner). Acreage is adjacent to Erawan/Bongkot gas fields. Pays 14.7m plus incremental costs for seismic - after earn-in costs split based on ownership. Fiscal terms 10% royalty up to 50% cost recovery and 50% contractor profit share and 20% corporate tax rate. [--] wells planned for 2025"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1948751638166209002) 2025-07-25T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/patrick-dovigi-billionaire-real-estate-29f38aa0mod=hp_lead_pos10 https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/patrick-dovigi-billionaire-real-estate-29f38aa0mod=hp_lead_pos10"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1951299876106735768) 2025-08-01T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Two observations here: 1) a low-teens post-tax ROIIC is not yet value destructive in the sense that it is likely still above Metas cost of capital but presumably shareholders would prefer buybacks; and 2) obviously if the superintelligence investment was not meeting internal expectations Meta should cut capex. Our biggest concern is that instead of rationally reducing capex an irrational decision is made to throw even more money at the problem (in line with current LLM scaling laws). " $META via @GHadjia @itsDanielWu"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951304279396065772) 2025-08-01T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/meta-platforms-meta-2q25-supermetalligence https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/meta-platforms-meta-2q25-supermetalligence"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1951304281375850602) 2025-08-01T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"new Genius offering at $GPN seems like its getting traction with restaurants. https://www.globalpayments.com/en-ca/industries/restaurant https://www.globalpayments.com/en-ca/industries/restaurant"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1953280640264356004) 2025-08-07T02:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"transformation on track - accelerating 10% of initiatives which were originally planned for [----] down from [--] POS to 1"
[X Link](https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1953283618198913047) 2025-08-07T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
### Topic Creators
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/:topic/creators/v1
Get the top creators for a social topic
input parameters:
+ **topic**: _Provide the topic to get details for. A topic must be all lower case and can only include letters, numbers, spaces, # and $._ **required**
Example request:
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/bitcoin/creators/v1
```
Example response:
```json
{
"data": [
{
"creator_id": "twitter::1605310254085980161",
"creator_name": "Bitcoin_Teddy",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1739753415134138368/FrWHMAnb_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 74293,
"creator_rank": 1,
"interactions_24h": [-------]
}
]
}
```
Schema:
+ **creator_id**: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
+ **creator_name**: The unique screen name for the influencer
+ **creator_avatar**: The URL to the avatar for the creator
+ **creator_followers**: number of followers the account has
+ **creator_rank**: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
+ **interactions_24h**: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
---
### Creators List
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1
Get a list of trending social creators over all of social based on interactions. To get lists of creators by category or topic see the topics and categories endpoints.
Example request:
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1
```
Example response:
```json
{
"data": [
{
"creator_name": "elonmusk",
"creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
"creator_id": "44196397",
"creator_network": "twitter",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 234295750,
"creator_posts": 3649,
"creator_rank": 1,
"interactions_24h": [---------]
}
]
}
```
Schema:
+ **creator_name**: The unique screen name for the influencer
+ **creator_display_name**: The chosen display name for the influencer if available
+ **creator_id**: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
+ **creator_network**: The social network for the post or influencer. We still refer to x as twitter out of developer preference.
+ **creator_avatar**: The URL to the avatar for the creator
+ **creator_followers**: number of followers the account has
+ **creator_posts**: total number of posts with interactions in the last [--] hours
+ **creator_rank**: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
+ **interactions_24h**: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
---
### Creator
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/v1
Get detail information on a specific creator
input parameters:
+ **network**: _Provide the network for the creator. One of twitter, youtube, instagram, reddit, or tiktok_ **required**
+ **id**: _Provide the unique ID or screen name of the creator_ **required**
Example request:
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/elonmusk/v1
```
Example response:
```json
{
"data": {
"creator_id": "twitter::44196397",
"creator_name": "elonmusk",
"creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 234296337,
"creator_rank": 2,
"interactions_24h": 318539577,
"topic_influence": [
{
"topic": "in the",
"count": 294,
"percent": 5.88,
"rank": [--]
}
],
"top_community": [
{
"creator_name": "grok",
"creator_display_name": "Grok",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1893219113717342208/Vgg2hEPa_200x200.jpg",
"count": [---]
}
]
}
}
```
Schema:
+ **creator_id**: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
+ **creator_name**: The unique screen name for the influencer
+ **creator_display_name**: The chosen display name for the influencer if available
+ **creator_avatar**: The URL to the avatar for the creator
+ **creator_followers**: number of followers the account has
+ **creator_rank**: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
+ **interactions_24h**: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
+ **topic_influence**: an array of social topics and the creators ranking on each topic
+ **topic**: LunarCrush social topic. Can only includes letters, numbers, spaces, #, and $
+ **top_community**: an array of the top accounts that have recently mentioned this creator or that this creator has mentioned
---
### Creator Time Series
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/time-series/v1
Get time series data on a creator.
input parameters:
+ **network**: _Influencer social network_ **required**
+ **id**: _The unique id or screen name of the creator_ **required**
+ **bucket**: _bucket time series data into hours or days. default is hours._
+ **interval**: _Use interval to specify the start and end time automatically for convenience. If "start" or "end" parameters are provided this parameter is ignored._
+ **start**: _The start time (unix timestamp) to go back to._
+ **end**: _The end time (unix timestamp) to stop at._
Example request:
```bash
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/lunarcrush/time-series/v1
```
Example response:
```json
{
"config": {
"network": "twitter",
"influencer_id": "twitter::988992203568562176",
"interval": "1w",
"start": 1769990400,
"end": 1770681600,
"bucket": "hour",
"name": "lunarcrush",
"remote_api": "danode1-13",
"generated": [----------]
},
"data": [
{
"time": 1769990400,
"followers": 305326,
"interactions": 717,
"posts_active": 14,
"creator_rank": [------]
}
]
}
```
Schema:
+ **config**: This includes the inputs for the request processed by the server and may include additional hints about the request and response information.
+ **network**: The social network for the post or influencer. We still refer to x as twitter out of developer preference.
+ **interval**: Typically used for specifying time intervals like 1w = [--] week, 1m = [--] month etc
+ **start**: Start/from unix timestamp (in seconds)
+ **end**: End/to unix timestamp (in seconds)
+ **bucket**: Data is generally bucketed into hours or days
+ **name**: The full name of the asset
+ **generated**: A unix timestamp (in seconds) when the data was generated to understand possibly stale data
+ **time**: A unix timestamp (in seconds)
+ **followers**: The number of publicly displayed followers the creator has
+ **interactions**: number of all publicly measurable interactions on a social post (views, likes, comments, thumbs up, upvote, share etc)
+ **posts_active**: number of unique social posts with interactions
+ **creator_rank**: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
---
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@icemancapital icemancapital
There is no direct mention of "icemancapital" in the provided tweets. However, several tweets discuss a company referred to as "$four", which appears to be a publicly traded company, and its recent activities, including a acquisition of Worldline NA for $81m USD. The tweets also mention other companies, such as $tost, $par, and $xyz, and discuss their performance and market trends.
Engagements: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] -90%
- [--] Month [------] +252%
- [--] Months [---------] -60%
- [--] Year [----------] +1,496%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -40%
- [--] Month [--] -85%
- [--] Months [---] +202%
- [--] Year [---] +306%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] -0.14%
- [--] Month [-----] +4.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +21%
- [--] Year [-----] +73%
CreatorRank: undefined #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies technology brands countries currencies agencies travel destinations fashion brands exchanges
Social topic influence $four #59, business, in the, $gpn #18, $gfl, share, $gflto, canada, ai, ceo
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jerrycap @rookisaacman @pythiar @longriverhk @borrowedideas @compoundpapi @tomsmith839 @shift4 @penderdave @muddywatersre @larryjamieson @chaptwelvecap @nestbetter @sleepwellcap @bizalmanac @ghadjia @itsdanielwu @marcruby @reddogcapital @tseides
Top assets mentioned 4 (FOUR) Global Payments Inc (GPN) GFL Environmental Holdings Inc. (GFL) Toast, Inc. (TOST) Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Fluence (FLT) Grand Base (GB) United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares (CIGI) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) CVS Health Corp (CVS) Shopify Inc (SHOP) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Bank of Montreal (BMO) LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Bitcoin (BTC) Block, Inc. (XYZ) Fiserv, Inc. (FI)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$MATR peer Cactus Inc $WHD expected Spoolable Technology to be down in the quarter was actually up +4.3% - delta driven by more resilient customer activity. However Q4 now expected to be down MSD-HSD on a QoQ basis. EBITDA expected to be in 36-38% range excl. SBC International Penetration for their FlexSteel product has more than doubled [----] levels. However US market characterized as challenging. Paid 650m for Spoolable tech have already received 190m back on track for an attractive payback period. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1852116665124700623"
X Link 2024-10-31T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of these is not like the others $AMZN $NFLX $GOOG $COF"
X Link 2022-12-09T04:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(1/n) After a long period of lurking on the sidelines I'm posting my first deep dive & model to Fintwit. I published a piece on $URI yesterday. The company is the largest rental business in the world which has 16% market share. https://www.icemancapital.com/unitedrentals/ https://www.icemancapital.com/unitedrentals/"
X Link 2023-01-02T22:34Z [----] followers, 26.6K engagements
"(1/n) 2nd post is out on the blog. I published a piece on $FND this morning. The company is a leading hard surface retail which has 9% market share and is well positioned to continue growing over the long term. https://www.icemancapital.com/flooranddecor/ https://www.icemancapital.com/flooranddecor/"
X Link 2023-03-15T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"by @scuttleblurb https://www.scuttleblurb.com/apg-api-group/ https://www.scuttleblurb.com/apg-api-group/"
X Link 2023-03-28T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@longriver_hk $AHT has generally had better margins organic growth lower leverage and more exposure to SMBs. I wrote up $URI earlier this year would love to hear any feedback you have"
X Link 2023-07-06T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(1/n) 3rd post out on $FLT today. Its a fantastic payments success story. Ron Clarke took this business from near bankruptcy to a successful IPO in [----]. Then compounded revenues at an 18% CAGR into [----]. Adj EPS grew at a 20% CAGR"
X Link 2023-07-25T13:21Z [----] followers, 16.4K engagements
"(3/n) FLT has now evolved from a payment specialist to a full provider of comprehensive corporate payment solutions that help businesses manage expenses and spend less📷"
X Link 2023-07-25T13:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(4/n) FLTs solutions face potential risks from an impending shift in the auto market from ICE vehicles to EVs but the market overlooks the value it could capture from its portfolio of EV assets. A long transition period could still prove to be very profitable for $FLT"
X Link 2023-07-25T13:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FLT Q2/2023 results were out last night w/ which were in line with the street. 10% organic was strong as Mexico/Australia had 20% growth. EV-related revenues were up 45% and Brazil (Tolls largely) was up 15% (volumes +7%)"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On the portfolio review they expect to close the Russia sale later this month. The prepaid business will be undergoing a sale process and also identified some non-core operations in the vehicle operation"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$FLT continues to work with GS on separating one of the four businesses to unlock value or considering combining one of the three major businesses with a "dance partner". More to come before YE"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EquiCompound ATS Automation Systems $ATS.TO has generated fantastic returns too. Its current CEO Andrew Hilder spent nearly a decade at $DHR before becoming the head of the company"
X Link 2023-08-14T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Why is check fraud suddenly rampant $FLT"
X Link 2023-08-30T13:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some BRK groupies might know Ian or have heard of him before. Despite loosely following BRK for close to a decade I can't recall his name ever coming up. Has anyone met him or have first hand experience with Ian $BRK.A $BRK.B"
X Link 2023-10-19T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"JAY HENNICK: A Guy with Entrepreneurship in his Blood by @DaveBritton2 $CIGI $FSV https://link.medium.com/lYnQD1kTUEb https://link.medium.com/lYnQD1kTUEb"
X Link 2023-11-21T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting Quote from old $WM CEO Dean buntrock on exiting international waste management (cc: $gfl $wcn)"
X Link 2024-01-21T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"re: @muddywatersre report on $FFH.TO They are missing the mark on this one. Going through a few of the key points below. They identify that Fairfax BVPS CAGR has fallen short of its 15% target. So what During 2010-2016 FFH generated $4.4b of hedging losses - a position they unwound after the election of the pro-business government. In [----] Prem committed to investors that he won't do this again. Combined with better underwriting results (exiting weaker lines hard market etc). Go forward BVPS growth driven by underwriting is much more likely to be persistent vs the investment gain-driven BVPS"
X Link 2024-02-08T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LeviathanCapit1 @willis_cap how do you know what the FWA constraints are"
X Link 2024-02-09T18:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""Canadian automotive assembly increased by over [---] thousand units between [----] and [----] as the recovery from the nadir of [----] continued. Four out of the five light vehicle manufacturers showed growth in [----] with Toyota leading the Canadian industry with production of [------] units followed by Honda which saw production rise [----] percent to reach a total of [------] units. The only manufacturer showing a decline was GM whose production slipped marginally to [------] units. Light vehicle assembly has long been a staple of the Canadian manufacturing environment and its continued post-pandemic"
X Link 2024-02-14T14:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Capital One is considering a potential acquisition of Discover Financial Services in a major move to boost its credit-card offerings via @business"
X Link 2024-02-19T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LilReadingRhino @longriver_hk URI has more national account exposure Weaker organic growth record better M&A capabilities and history. URI 25% bigger ish. URI has more locations. Sunbelt has had higher employee turnover. my URI write up may help https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/unitedrentals https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/unitedrentals"
X Link 2024-03-19T21:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Can I pick someone's brain on $LBRDK 30% discount to NAV. https://www.ruanecunniff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Year-End-2023-Sequoia-Strategy-Letter.pdf https://www.ruanecunniff.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Year-End-2023-Sequoia-Strategy-Letter.pdf"
X Link 2024-03-19T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO $LLY "Ive been infertile for [--] years and after [--] months of taking OZ I am now pregnant" one user shared on the r/Ozempic subreddit. "So shocking to say the least." "I was on birth control and this pregnancy was very much unplanned" another wrote in the comments of a thread about Ozempic pregnancies. "I have a long history of miscarriages and a stillbirth and had decided to stop trying to conceive two years ago and during that time started Ozempic and lost [--] pounds." So prevalent is this phenomenon that Novo Nordisk which makes both has set up a website specifically for people to report"
X Link 2024-03-28T12:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RYAAY vs $BA The managerial move which puts someone in charge of 737s and someone in charge of safety OLeary said smacks of corporate bullshit. Theyve appointed two very good ladies there he said but added why isnt the person in charge of 737s in charge of the fucking safety as well He went further: They have a leadership team of [----] people but thats a committee designing a fucking camel. https://fortune.com/2024/03/27/ryanair-ceo-boeing-problems-missing-seat-handles-spanners-new-management/"
X Link 2024-03-28T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$PM $BTI https://archive.ph/2024.03.29-221153/https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/03/zyn-pouches-nicotine-candy/677920/ https://archive.ph/2024.03.29-221153/https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/03/zyn-pouches-nicotine-candy/677920/"
X Link 2024-03-30T16:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepSailCapital $FOUR $GFL $OTEX $EFX.TO $CPAY"
X Link 2024-04-03T23:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Legendary gambler and hedge fund manager Edward Thorp [--] shares what hes learned about exercise diet and managing risk in all areas of life. via @BW https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-10/anti-aging-tips-from-blackjack-and-finance-guru-ed-thorputm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=6nD1PqTK https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-10/anti-aging-tips-from-blackjack-and-finance-guru-ed-thorputm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twittersref=6nD1PqTK"
X Link 2024-04-10T20:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great piece on $NKE challenges. DTC sales are tracking below prior targets. Bad timing with unwinding retailer relationships as the sales environment decelerated. Reduced emphasis on lower-priced gear despite inflation headwinds to consumers. Focused too much on products that worked and innovated too little. No wonder Hoka/ON etc have gained market share. "Nike veterans said cutting off wholesale clients was one of the biggest mistakes the company has ever made. After digital sales hit the 30% of the total mark early in the pandemic they dropped back and havent reached that level sincelet"
X Link 2024-04-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Berkshire after Buffett: can any stockpicker follow the Oracle via @ft https://www.ft.com/content/fd3b3324-d775-4e09-a916-76f2f3ac675b https://www.ft.com/content/fd3b3324-d775-4e09-a916-76f2f3ac675b"
X Link 2024-05-02T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MSCI is apparently pushing through a 5x price increase on licenses for Canadian Asset Owners (Pensions Endowments etc). cc: @Larryjamieson_"
X Link 2024-05-13T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. Jared Isaacman buys $5.5m in shares at $65 $FOUR https://t.co/nOMkyZRPGx https://t.co/z4eaA1XcZh Jared Isaacman buys $5.5m in shares at $65 $FOUR https://t.co/nOMkyZRPGx https://t.co/z4eaA1XcZh"
X Link 2024-05-23T23:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Nikes retail partnerships today are constructed to connect its wholesale and DTC businesses. When the company partnered with Zalando last October for example it let shoppers link their Nike accounts to the multi-brand e-tailer to access a wider range of exclusive goods. Were still in the days where brands are realising that wholesale is incredibly important and omnichannel is incredibly important as opposed to simply making a bet on going direct said Simeon Siegel managing director and senior analyst of retail and e-commerce at BMO Capital Markets. Theyre paring back on the maniacal focus on"
X Link 2024-06-06T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PythiaR CIBC on $GFL after meeting mgmt"
X Link 2024-06-07T14:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""US public pension funds underperformed market index benchmarks by a cumulative (unannualized) five percentage points between [----] and [----]. . alternative investments as a percentage of asset value for US public pension funds between [----] and [----] increased from 9% to 29% of the total. Adjusting for market/risk exposures the public plans outperformed benchmarks by 1.2% per year from [----] to [----] but they underperformed the market by 1.2% per year from [----] to [----]. In the initial period annual alpha was [--] bps higher with each 1% increase to alternatives but in the subsequent period each 1%"
X Link 2024-06-10T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL.to $GFL "(Bloomberg) -- Activist investor ADW Capital Management LLC is calling on waste management firm GFL Environmental Inc. to sell its environmental services division in lieu of a full sale of the company. We cannot think of any reason why the company would explore any other path than to sell its ES division ADW founder Adam Wyden said in a letter to GFLs board. New York-based ADW holds [----] million shares about 0.45% in GFL according to the letter a follow-up to one in November asking the company to either go private or sell assets to reduce its debt. While we would be in favor of"
X Link 2024-06-12T15:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR CEO bought another $1m in shares. 06/14/2024 $FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. https://t.co/0Zw1kHj8Sq $FOUR CEO buying another $2.5m in shares. https://t.co/0Zw1kHj8Sq"
X Link 2024-06-16T19:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Great thread on $COST $WMT $DG (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM"
X Link 2024-06-26T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great thread on $COST $WMT $DG but don't think valuation makes sense at this pt still. (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is deafening. Some thoughts: https://t.co/tioFxwTUbM (1) Given all the hate towards $COST on Fintwit recently (on multiple alone) I thought this post provides perfect clarity towards how institutional investors think. Really don't want to spend time on this name but the noise is"
X Link 2024-06-26T12:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM $SBUX pivot to drive-through and pick-up made it no longer "the third place". $NKE de-emphasized innovation/R&D instead went all in on distribution which appears to have failed IDK about the others https://x.com/MattJMcClintock/status/1779682375330353518 https://t.co/FSyQNbhanW https://x.com/MattJMcClintock/status/1779682375330353518 https://t.co/FSyQNbhanW"
X Link 2024-06-28T14:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Baupost cuts [--] members of the investment team (real estate and equities). It comes after the [----] cut of its European office where they cut [--] RE analysts and [--] public equity. Does anyone know how bad the real estate investments were"
X Link 2024-06-28T16:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Why aren't margins growing for $NKE despite higher DTC exposure Are there companies in the sector that have pulled off this transition more successfully CC: @54thParallel @borrowed_ideas"
X Link 2024-07-02T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$DOO.TO $PII Within the overall recreational vehicle market the small vehicle segment which is less expensive than boats or RVs caravans is often the most resilient during periods of economic downturn and higher interest rates Picard said. "That's what's happening this year in our business. Sales of motorcycles in the $15000 to $20000 range are good but it's more difficult for models in the $30000 range. In addition demand is very very strong for mountain and all-terrain bikes with electric assistance that were developed by motorcycle manufacturers that we were already dealers for" says Mr."
X Link 2024-07-08T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On Wednesday Dovigi rebuffed these conclusions. I am not sure Mr. Dodge is in any position to comment on the likelihood of any outcome as he has never spoken to me he wrote in the email. In a note to clients last month RBC Capital Markets analyst Sabahat Khan said a potential sale of GFLs environmental services business would serve the dual purpose of lowering the companys debt load while freeing up capital to grow its solid waste business. We are not entirely surprised that GFL is receiving buyout interest Khan wrote. At a high level we think private buyers looking to acquire waste"
X Link 2024-07-10T19:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A group of bidders that includes private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds is interested in acquiring $GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) for between $44 and $46 a share CTFN reported on Monday citing two people familiar with the matter. GFL's (GFL) environmental services business also is drawing interest from buyers according to the report. GFL (GFL) is considering re-domiciling from Canada to the United States to become eligible for inclusion in U.S. equity indices. The move could attract a larger pool of capital from existing and new investors CTFN reported."
X Link 2024-07-15T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""A group of bidders that includes private-equity and sovereign-wealth funds is interested in acquiring $GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) for between $44 and $46 a share CTFN reported on Monday citing two people familiar with the matter. GFL's (GFL) environmental services business also is drawing interest from buyers according to the report. GFL (GFL) is considering re-domiciling from Canada to the United States to become eligible for inclusion in U.S. equity indices. The move could attract a larger pool of capital from existing and new investors CTFN reported.""
X Link 2024-07-15T20:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@paulcerro @cedargrovecm Hit + slugging rate on shorts seems pretty good"
X Link 2024-07-24T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CIBC thinks $GFL could be $80 stock if they sell ES assets. 50% higher seems too bold IMO but i still see upside after the recent run"
X Link 2024-08-02T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""A former analyst of mine has been working in commercial real estate capital markets for many years. Most deals he now works on in NYC involve sales prices of $200-$400 psf which is more reminiscent of the late 1990s/early 2000s than the pre-Covid period when such buildings would have sold for $500-$1000 psf. He also reports that many deals entail buildings sold for less than their debt value with sellers having to provide attractive financing to new buyers (e.g. 65% LTV @ 5%)." - Michael Cembalest EOTM"
X Link 2024-08-07T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""The Canadian used wholesale market experienced a decline of 0.29% in prices for the week. Car segments pricing decreased by 0.43% while the Truck/SUVs segments dropped -0.16% once again.Full-Size Pickups and Compact Cars saw price increases of +0.51% and +0.09%.The largest declines noted were seen in Near Luxury Car with 0.87% followed by Luxury Car at 0.47% and Mid-SizeCrossover/SUVs at 0.41%. ""
X Link 2024-09-04T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL.TO "Private-equity bidders have valued the unit at between $6.5 billion and $7 billion CTFN has previously reported. The unit has seen interest for the entire business and GFL also received a C$2 billion offer for a 30% stake in the division according to CTFN. Potential strategic buyers include Republic Services (RSG) Waste Connections (WCN) and Casella Waste Systems (CWST). Bids for the environmental-services business are due by the third week of October according to the report." $GFL GFL expected to start sale of environmental-services unit this week - CTFN scoop"
X Link 2024-09-09T16:09Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements
"$ACQ.TO sells two Stellantis dealerships in Ponoka AB and Airdrie AB. "This divestiture is the first strategic move we're making as part of AutoCanada's realignment. We are taking actions that allow us to concentrate our resources and efforts to improve core operations optimize our cost structure strengthen profitability and reduce leverage." Proceeds will be used to reduce leverage. Transaction is accretive to adj. EBITDA margins and EPS. Sale should put Stellantis revenue exposure on TTM basis 20-22%. vs 25% before"
X Link 2024-09-11T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"from Volaris "The next generation of experts will see AI as a co-intelligence in the long game of compounding knowledge." $CSU.TO https://explore.volarisgroup.com/volaris-group-blog/the-long-game-of-expertise-and-how-ai-might-change-things https://explore.volarisgroup.com/volaris-group-blog/the-long-game-of-expertise-and-how-ai-might-change-things"
X Link 2024-10-02T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A Love Letter to the Stock Market (and others) by @ChapTwelveCap https://chaptertwelve.substack.com/p/a-love-letter-to-the-stock-market https://chaptertwelve.substack.com/p/a-love-letter-to-the-stock-market"
X Link 2024-10-02T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(1/n) Post out on $FOUR today (link in bio). This is a remarkable Payment's success story. Lead by @rookisaacman. He started one of the predecessor companies back out of high school and has grown it from nothing to $900m in net revenues. The firm has delivered double digit growth since the earlier 2000s"
X Link 2024-10-09T18:00Z [----] followers, 18.9K engagements
"(2/n) I believe their payment offering is higher quality more reliable and has lower total costs relative to its primary competitor Toast $TOST. Shift4 has demonstrated a remarkable capability to expand into new verticals and into new geographies. Most of these verticals have some niche characteristics to them - the best example of this is likely VenueNext or The Giving Block. Growth prospects are underappreciated and the runway in Europe seems very long given recent M&A"
X Link 2024-10-09T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(4/n) Shift4 is also way better at investing its $'s than competitors. Peers have shown much lower GP conversion over the prior [--] years. Culturally as an organization they manage spend very tightly and work aggressively to keep headcount growth at modest levels. They are willing to "aggressively delete parts. Parts can be legacy products internal systems and other costly expenses that dont fit within our plan.""
X Link 2024-10-09T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PUB.FP "WPP has been outsmarted by its old rival Publicis" https://www.ft.com/content/271f072d-30d7-4c5c-b219-1701f7411fb1 https://www.ft.com/content/271f072d-30d7-4c5c-b219-1701f7411fb1"
X Link 2024-10-18T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-gfl-fires-suspected-arson/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-gfl-fires-suspected-arson/"
X Link 2024-10-25T12:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR CEO on competitive landscape. https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/shiftfour-payments-nysefour @buccocapital @JerryCap I don't agree. Payments have evolved into commerce-enabling solutions which are generally vertically specific and not as competitive as it might appear. - Table service restaurants (much more complex than fast food or cash & carry): just Toast and Shift4 - Fast food: PAR https://icemancapital.substack.com/p/shiftfour-payments-nysefour @buccocapital @JerryCap I don't agree. Payments have evolved into commerce-enabling solutions which are generally vertically specific and"
X Link 2024-10-25T20:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bad Q3 guide + [--] sell-side downgrades. Macro weakness in NA delays with datacenter customer construction. Mgmt claiming orders are being pushed out not cancelled. Some delayed orders have since been delivered in Q4. Large HPC Contract (AI) still possible. Revenue down 2.6% v prior guide. Adj. EBITDA down 29% v prior guide. CFO Conversion strong at 150% of EBITDA. ERP online since beginning of month. Netsuite is working as expected so far. 18% FCF Yield using street low FCF estimate of $121. 23% using median FCF estimate of $144 for the year (2024)"
X Link 2024-10-25T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@NestBetter @compoundpapi Flexpipe is pretty tied to oil and gas completion activity. Xerxes tied to CVS fuel location growth and refurbishment/replacement activity"
X Link 2024-10-27T22:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PD.TO is #1 land driller in Canada. #4 in USA. #1 well service provider in Canada. Also has a small operation in Middle East and Service Rigs in Canada. Basically a capital cycle thesis play. Supply of rigs in NA declined on a net basis from 2015-2023. They own a large share of tier [--] drilling rigs and utilization + pricing has continued to surprise positively over the past few years. CAD margins been 14k day and US segment margins $10k USD per day. Rig count unlikely to recover to prior cycle peaks due to improved productivity in the industry which drives higher demand for tier [--] rigs."
X Link 2024-10-28T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HP believes US Capacity of super-spec rigs has decreased over time - and substantial capex would be required to upgrade/activate these rigs. I don't believe net supply is being added to the market and this benefits the incumbents in the industry who have strong tier [--] assets and relationships"
X Link 2024-10-28T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@northernbear85 @ChapTwelveCap @compoundpapi @NestBetter $PTEN believes the same - tier [--] assets will be heavily utilized going forward. Similarly targeting 50% of FCF to be returned to shareholders over time. I don't think there is net rig additions happening to the industry"
X Link 2024-10-28T17:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"far as i know $TOT.TO 's drilling fleet is of much poorer quality that the $PD.TO or $HP. They have only [--] triples out of [--] assets. I think you are comparing apples vs oranges. Utilization rates for $PD.TO assets has been 75% for the most part in the past 12m. There is a big difference in utilization rates depending on the type of rig a company has"
X Link 2024-10-28T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fastest Growing Bank You've Never Heard Of - $VBNK You Decide what's the bear case on this stock https://www.cluseau.com/p/the-fastest-growing-bank-youve-never https://www.cluseau.com/p/the-fastest-growing-bank-youve-never"
X Link 2024-11-04T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"GMO had a compelling pitch on Ex-China EM opportunities 1) China Consumer Confidence and Industrial Activity is depressed and hasn't recovered post pandemic. Retail Sales data suggest a very weak environment. Even Housing prices for major cities in china looks very bleak. 2) ROEs used to average 12-17% from 06-15 for the Shanghai Composite Index but have since fallen to 11%. Combined with lower growth expectations P/E multiples have remained in the 10-15x range for the majority of the past decade. 3) Investment Activity has slowed dramatically. IPO activity is at a cyclical low with [----] IPOS"
X Link 2024-11-06T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""It has been a tale of two halves for energy stocks. Energy was the second-worst-performing sector from June [----] through September [----] with the S&P/TSX Energy sector index losing 3.6% annualized over that period" "Energy has been the best performing sector in Canada ever since. The sector index gained 28.8% annualized from October [----] through September [----]. For comparison the second-best sector was financials which rose 19.0% annualized over the same period. Canadian managers werent around to benefit from the turnaround. Exhibit [--] shows both the relative performance of the S&P/TSX Energy"
X Link 2024-11-07T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""Historically a constant lack of commodity exposure can overshadow even a great Canadian stock-picker. A nimbler and more flexible approach to these sectors makes a fund more robust to different market environments in Canada." Via Morningstar's "The Canadian Conundrum" report"
X Link 2024-11-07T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"do public markets outperform private markets Perplexity response Private markets particularly private equity have generally outperformed public markets over the past two decades. Despite higher fees private equity funds have consistently delivered superior net returns compared to public equities such as the S&P [-----]. This outperformance is attributed to factors like illiquidity premiums active management and access to a broader range of investment opportunities13. However private markets require skilled management and involve higher risks due to less liquidity and transparency compared to"
X Link 2024-11-09T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Q: in order to hit your 20% after-tax IRR target it does imply that EBITDA could go up call it $25 million to $30 million. Is that a fair statement And what is your expectation on timeline at hitting that 20% target A: Yes. So what I would say is that at conservative levels this reaches close to our 20% target. So obviously we can't talk about exact numbers. And as I said we'll give better visibility as we get into the end of the year reporting. So I would just encourage you to maybe modify or be a little modest with some of those expectations in the near term. There are significant"
X Link 2024-11-11T19:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"*SEVEN & I IS SAID TO CONSIDER $58 BILLION MANAGEMENT BUYOUT $ATD $3382.JP Seven & i rumored to be considering [--] tn yen MBO with Itochu and founding family. That's 56% premium over today's share price and more than 100% premium to share price before this Couche-tard saga. Reminder that Itochu also owns Family Mart. Seven & i rumored to be considering [--] tn yen MBO with Itochu and founding family. That's 56% premium over today's share price and more than 100% premium to share price before this Couche-tard saga. Reminder that Itochu also owns Family Mart"
X Link 2024-11-13T03:45Z [----] followers, 22.9K engagements
"cc @SleepwellCap https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/rolex-submariner-watches-globally-near-50-billion-market-valuesrnd=undefined https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/rolex-submariner-watches-globally-near-50-billion-market-valuesrnd=undefined"
X Link 2024-11-15T18:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Shift4 Q3 [----] Earnings Review on the SS link in bio"
X Link 2024-11-16T21:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR joining S&P MidCap [---] https://press.spglobal.com/2024-11-15-Shift4-Payments-Set-to-Join-the-S-P-MidCap-400 https://press.spglobal.com/2024-11-15-Shift4-Payments-Set-to-Join-the-S-P-MidCap-400"
X Link 2024-11-18T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MATR.TO (EBITDA - Operating Leases - Capex)/Sales vs Premium Industrial Product Manufacturer Peers"
X Link 2024-11-19T15:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The source said D&D received four conditional takeover bids all in the low to mid $20s range in the second round of a process being handled by investment bank Goldman Sachs. One of the bids came from Pexa while three came from North American private equity firms the source said. But when Goldman Sachs approached two of D&Ds largest shareholder Mawer Investment Management and EdgePoint Wealth Management to gauge their potential support for the bids on the table which included the prospect of rolling some of their shares over in a transaction they said no the source said." $DND.TO"
X Link 2024-11-20T16:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap FICO Bloomberg multiple as of today"
X Link 2024-11-24T01:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@PythiaR @sharpe2_0 https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1845696565530468596s=19 Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking at the chart below it is clear that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to prevent growth from weakening further. https://t.co/5oEC0exJ6k https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1845696565530468596s=19 Investors are underestimating just how behind the curve China is in stimulating its economy. Looking at the chart below it is clear that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to"
X Link 2024-11-28T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$INTC "Intel Stock Pops After CEO Gelsinger Retires. Shares Have Fallen 61% During His Tenure.""
X Link 2024-12-02T16:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This one is funny. Closed a deal before regulatory approval - then they don't get approval. Shortly after forced to sell at a loss of 50m GBP. $DND"
X Link 2024-12-03T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jared out at $FOUR as he accepts Nomination for NASA Administrator. Taylor Lauber named as successor. Hate to see it Probably most negative for the M&A Strategy going forward"
X Link 2024-12-04T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Equities rarely do what most expect. Market forecasters were historically dour at 2024s start. Updated forecasts have simply followed the market higher and remain very cautious.""
X Link 2024-12-05T23:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""The US government has run up huge deficits recently. Many fear excessive spending could cause economic problems and weak equity returns going forward. However historically equities have thrived after deficit troughs. ""
X Link 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""Over the past [--] months corporate earnings growth has been dominated by a few sectors. Looking forward earnings look set to accelerate with all sectors participating.""
X Link 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""China stimulus announcements have been substantial but may not be enough to heal the Chinese economy or drive a new bull market. However stimulus optimism may be enough to drive a meaningful rally in Chinese equities. During Japans long stretch of underperformance following the late-1980s property bubble numerous stimulus programs failed to drive a sustained bull market but did help fuel meaningful rallies.""
X Link 2024-12-06T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Black Friday + Cyber Monday sales +24% YoY according $SHOP"
X Link 2024-12-06T15:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR https://open.substack.com/pub/aletteraday/p/letter-242-jared-isaacman-2020utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2aa6qw https://open.substack.com/pub/aletteraday/p/letter-242-jared-isaacman-2020utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2aa6qw"
X Link 2024-12-07T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""One residential construction worker would have to produce nearly three-quarters of a home each year to meet the federal governments [----] housing goal a number of homes-per-worker nearly two-times higher than todays average" "From [----] to [----] housing starts-per-job have declined from [----] to [----]. In [----] [------] workers produced just [------] housing starts. That's the lowest rate since [----] despite more than [------] additional residential construction jobs being added since then.""
X Link 2024-12-09T16:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Purchase consideration was $10.4m USD + up to additional $50m USD contingent upon certain upside price scenarios. "Immediate pre-tax cash flows of $30m USD per month" Bought at an annualized pre-tax CF multiple of 0.16x (60/ (30*12)) Is there a step up in capex or something odd going on with taxes why were they able to get these assets for so cheap"
X Link 2024-12-09T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Jared donating 1% of his shares to Renaissance Charitable Foundation Inc $FOUR"
X Link 2024-12-09T22:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"StorageVault Canada $SVI.TO worth a look here IMO Leader in canadian self storage business and fastest growing storage business in Canada. Market share of 8-8.5% with next largest competitor in the 2.5% range Trades at 26% Discount to NAV (w/ 5.3% implied cap rate). Trades at P/FFO of 16.7x and stock is off from prior high of $7.21. Stock trades at discount to US Peers (which are under levered) but $SVI.TO has superior growth profile and consolidation opportunities. Spread relative to government rates looks attractive on multi-year basis. Residential sales activity should pick up as rates"
X Link 2024-12-11T22:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FT Partners on $FOUR"
X Link 2024-12-13T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ENGH.TO acquires Aculab PLC which generated $8.3m CAD in revenues on TTM basis as of June [----]. Revenues were down 10% YoY"
X Link 2024-12-16T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sharing a few notes from a recent interview with a former executive of Prysmian Group a competitor to Nexans (prior owner of the AmerCable asset). $MATR.TO"
X Link 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, 11.9K engagements
"1) low voltage market characterized by 1kV to 3kV. Use cases are large inside buildings. Largest part of the market at 50% 100-130b vs total cable market at 250b. 2)medium voltage market largely cables used for power grids within cities - ie connecting between buildings from high voltage power and then stepping it down to low voltage that's used at a house/building"
X Link 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3) AmerCable not present in high voltage market or medium voltage for distribution grid. They have very strong and high market share in O&G and mining. They are leaders in the space along with Prysmian - each had 25% share in mining (50% combined). AmerCable is #2 in O&G second to Nova"
X Link 2024-12-20T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"🚩 "Carvanas toxic loan book is a result of lax underwriting standards: We actually approved 100% of the applicants interview with a former Carvana director describing virtually non-existent underwriting standards. " "For example Carvanas increase in borrower extensions is enabled by its loan servicer an affiliate of private car dealership DriveTime run by Carvanas CEOs father. The company seems to be avoiding reporting higher delinquencies by granting loan extensions instead. " "With Ally Quietly Pulling Back In Q2 and Q3 [----] Carvana Sold $800 Million In Receivables To A New Unnamed Buyer"
X Link 2025-01-02T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$MATR.TO closes on acquisition of AmerCable Jan 2nd. The addition of AmerCable to our portfolio positions Mattr as a premier provider of highly engineered wire and cable technologies across the North American marketplace said Mike Reeves Mattrs President and CEO. AmerCables broad portfolio of low and medium-voltage electrical power control and instrumentation cable solutions expands and complements Mattrs existing range of Shawflex branded products. We are excited to welcome the talented employees of AmerCable to the Mattr team."
X Link 2025-01-02T16:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"(1/n) Some Additional notes from an Expert Call with an Executive at Prysmian Group (a $MATR.TO competitor) Nexans strategy was shift to high voltage electrification ie transport of energy from gen to distribution. Versus competitors they were less integrated and industrial market has many more niche applications + diversification vs broader grid build out exposure. Expert believed bigger cable players also looking to buy into additional niches"
X Link 2025-01-02T21:10Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"$MA SpendingPulse for [----]. Consumer still spending $$ Retail Excl. Auto +3.8% Online +6.7% and Offline +2.9%"
X Link 2025-01-03T15:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BF.B short Adam Patinkin of David Capital Partners LLC has worked great. Also not touched on here but have helped meaningfully has been narrative shift with GLP1 research driving lower alcohol consumption. US Surgeon General report on links to cancer adds fuel to fire. BF multiple gone from 30x to 15.1x now matches SPX market multiple. https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1875224581566259452 https://x.com/icemancapital/status/1875224581566259452"
X Link 2025-01-04T02:00Z [----] followers, 30K engagements
"$GFL $GFL.TO (Bloomberg) -- A consortium backed by Apollo Global Management Inc. and BC Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake in GFL Environmental Inc.s environmental services unit in a deal that could value the business at about C$8 billion ($5.6 billion) including debt people familiar with the matter said. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/01/06/apollo-bc-partners-near-deal-for-56-billion-gfl-environmental-services-unit/ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/01/06/apollo-bc-partners-near-deal-for-56-billion-gfl-environmental-services-unit/"
X Link 2025-01-06T22:10Z [----] followers, 13.8K engagements
"$GFL.TO $GFL deal to sell ES is neat. Company gets monetize ES Segment but still retains 44% interest lever it back up to 5.5-6x. Mgmt sees path to grow ES segment EBITDA to 875-950m through M&A and organically over next 5Y. Equity + Debt holders both like they deal given credit upgrades improved FCF deleveraging adds M&A potential back into picture"
X Link 2025-01-07T15:33Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"@PythiaR @bizalmanac The comments from GFL call said he thought he could buy it back at 9-10x in [--] years. what am i missing"
X Link 2025-01-07T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VLE.TO trades at 1.2x EV/EBITDA 1.5x EV/Operating CF and 20% FCF Yield on Cannacord [----] estimates. Estimated to be net cash balance sheet position of $397m by YE2025"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:51Z [----] followers, 11.3K engagements
"$MU "An industry insider familiar with Microns situation said Micron is conducting the final facility evaluation for 16-layer products and Once the test is complete a full-scale purchase order (PO) for the essential process equipment will follow. This is a very fast pace. There is no precedent for commercialization of HBM3E 16-layer yet. Currently the highest number is HBM3E 12-layer which SK Hynix is supplying to NVIDIA. HBM has better performance as the number of layers increases. However manufacturing becomes more difficult. Since more DRAMs must be stacked processes such as heat"
X Link 2025-01-14T23:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@peter_mantas @Overlevered_AM @PythiaR FWIW"
X Link 2025-01-17T22:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MikeFritzell @longriver_hk @HaydenCapital did anyone talk about similarities or differences vs Russia"
X Link 2025-01-18T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5) "IDFA and social video have led mobile gaming to lose 2.6% of its share of all digital media among US adults since [----] (a 17% down in time)""
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6) For each $100 in sales $RBLX pays app stores $22 and loses $35 on a GAAP basis. Being the app store seems to be one of the best places to be from an industry perspective"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10) Price per game has declined over time in real terms. Recent hikes of $10 have fallen in nominal terms due to high inflation. Other categories saw much clearer increases in real pricing over LT"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"11) unclear that the pricing dynamics will change a lot. Lots of competition for consumer entertainment + alternatives to gaming. F2P titles are overly popular piracy skew towards buying games on sale and what might be structural underpricing all play a factor"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"12) costs to develop a AAA game have grown materially. COD used to cost $50m in [----] but this increased in [----] to $550m. gross"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"15) due to combination of lower customer interest swelling development costs and lower VC investment support all of the large players are now publishing on other major channels. Playstation MAUs now include PC same with Xbox"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"16) are video games stuck in a "doom" loop Exceptions include $RBLX which continue to diversify by age and steadily growing # of hours played. Actively Monthly Users of 350m is huge vs other ecosystems"
X Link 2025-01-21T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"why hasn't $BUR $BUR.LN worked (yet)"
X Link 2025-01-21T18:51Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"Silver Beech Capital Q2/2024 letter excerpt on $BUR https://docsend.com/view/d898zygb96cnq4k6 https://docsend.com/view/d898zygb96cnq4k6"
X Link 2025-01-21T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Old news but $FEVR "Shares in Fevertree were boosted by reports that consumer goods colossus Unilever was looking to buy Fevertree while analysts at Jefferies also began coverage of the London-listed company with a 'buy' recommendation. Unilever will try to snap up the mixers maker for "at least [--] per share" the Telegraph reported with rumours rising after Fevertree appointed Kevin Havelock Unilever's global president of refreshment as a non-executive director last week. https://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/Fevertree-shoots-higher-on-bid-speculation-an-news26953517.html#google_vignette"
X Link 2025-01-23T22:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$C up +100% from [----] low. Now at 0.75x P/BV"
X Link 2025-01-24T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Giroux on Revitty $RVTY"
X Link 2025-01-27T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New Post out on $FEVR.LN TLDR: Market too pessimistic on long term growth prospects margin recovery and portfolio adaption potential. I see a 16% IRR from today's price. Full report linked below let me know of any feedback questions or comments on the report. https://tinyurl.com/38h8f4rb https://tinyurl.com/38h8f4rb"
X Link 2025-01-29T21:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FEVR trading update OK at 4% YoY. US growth accelerating vs H1 and on a FY basis was up 12% on CC basis. Europe softer due to weather and weak consumer. Non-tonics continue to perform well and maintained #1 value share position in off-trade. ROW benefited from Australia business being established with +22% growth"
X Link 2025-01-30T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$BBU $BBU.TO "Since going public we have generated over $6 billion in proceeds from the sale of over [--] businesses realizing a 3x multiple of our invested capital and an IRR of approximately 30%. These excellent returns are proof of the effectiveness of our strategy.""
X Link 2025-01-31T14:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crypto donation opportunity for $FOUR still looks like its in early stages $2b in crypto was donated to non-profits in T5Y but $1b in last year. Top 70% of charities now accept crypto for donations up 25% from the prior year. Average donation of $11k was up 386% YoY They believe giving potential for crypto is $2.5b in 2025"
X Link 2025-02-05T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CIGI getting lots of interest in IM business. Spin optionality still there. Sell off today seems at odds w/ LT trajectory of business. Stock at 12.3x EV/EBITDA today or 18.6x F P/E"
X Link 2025-02-06T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Brookfield "Active Investing Continues to Go Passive Offering Us Great Opportunity" $BN $BAM"
X Link 2025-02-13T16:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Crescent Rock Capital Performance of ideas since Nov 10th [----] G&D Interview. $KBR $MRO.LN $GXI.GR $6707.JP"
X Link 2025-02-24T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LAD Figures from G&D Pitch from Fall 2023"
X Link 2025-03-02T20:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"is this how musk kills all his competitors CC: $GM $F $STLA Bernstein models that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds $2700 per car would wipe out 65% of GM's FCF and lead to lower profits and lower investment in the US. https://t.co/NRCjwWSPwz Bernstein models that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds $2700 per car would wipe out 65% of GM's FCF and lead to lower profits and lower investment in the US. https://t.co/NRCjwWSPwz"
X Link 2025-03-03T22:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GreenhavenRoad on $BUR.LN $BUR https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/67c1bf36804ffe58f087a896/1740750647415/Greenhaven+Road+-+2024+Q4+FINAL.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/67c1bf36804ffe58f087a896/1740750647415/Greenhaven+Road+-+2024+Q4+FINAL.pdf"
X Link 2025-03-03T23:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"RJ on $FOUR "Simply put with stock now trading at just 9x our pro-forma 2026E stated EBITDA (10x adj for CaC + Equip. D&A) and 13x fully taxed FCF despite normalized 20%+ FCF growth we believe FOUR represents the most favorable risk/reward opportunity across our coverage.""
X Link 2025-03-10T17:18Z [----] followers, 33.1K engagements
"Economist Profile on @rookisaacman $FOUR"
X Link 2025-03-16T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$YETI board news - seems like a big deal. I think they have immaterial sales in Europe vs Thule which has a ton of relationships they can leverage. Very possible over the next 12-24m we see a step change in the growth rate and contribute from international sales. International Sales mix was 18% in [----] but this is almost entirely Australia + Canada. https://investors.yeti.com/news/news-details/2025/YETI-to-Appoint-J--Magnus-Welander-and-Arne-Arens-to-Companys-Board-of-Directors/default.aspx"
X Link 2025-03-17T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"anyone familiar with engaged capital what do you think priorities shift to now that they on the board https://engagedcapital.com/meet-the-team/ https://engagedcapital.com/pressreleases/ $YETI board news - seems like a big deal. I think they have immaterial sales in Europe vs Thule which has a ton of relationships they can leverage. Very possible over the next 12-24m we see a step change in the growth rate and contribute from international sales. International https://t.co/sxBfcTwHcS https://engagedcapital.com/meet-the-team/ https://engagedcapital.com/pressreleases/ $YETI board news - seems"
X Link 2025-03-17T22:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@prometheus_eq @rookisaacman he's going to be the next Administrator at NASA"
X Link 2025-03-18T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AlphaSeeker84 post on $SIG worth a read. https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/signet-jewelers-a-deeply-undervalued https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/signet-jewelers-a-deeply-undervalued"
X Link 2025-03-24T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SHOP believed to be most impacted from De minimis exemption ending"
X Link 2025-04-04T14:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BUR sees potential to 20% ROEs over next cycle. Trades at 0.93x P/BV / 7x P/E"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's a huge chunk of the revenue base for lots of countries not sure many would be able to operate without it Via Grok "VAT is a cornerstone of fiscal policy in Europe often rivaling income tax as a primary revenue source. For instance posts on X and various analyses suggest it funds 30-40% of government spending in some EU countries though this varies with tax policy and economic conditions. EU Level: The VAT-based contribution to the EU budget is relatively modest compared to GNI-based resources and traditional own resources like customs duties (about 14.7% in 2017). In [----] the EU budget"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$atd.to 3382:JP ATD:CN #mergers #japan How likely is it that Couche-Tard will give up its pursuit of Seven & I Join the members of Lighthouse for daily news on mergers activism and more. Sign up at https://t.co/RzmptmbXGr https://t.co/C7M7hzs0zz 3382:JP ATD:CN #mergers #japan How likely is it that Couche-Tard will give up its pursuit of Seven & I Join the members of Lighthouse for daily news on mergers activism and more. Sign up at https://t.co/RzmptmbXGr https://t.co/C7M7hzs0zz"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR Opening statement of President Trumps nominee for NASA Administrator Jared Rook Isaacman. https://t.co/9xYWFc3s1b Opening statement of President Trumps nominee for NASA Administrator Jared Rook Isaacman. https://t.co/9xYWFc3s1b"
X Link 2025-04-09T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR on Applebees @TomSmith839 @jevgenijs Applebees was an old Merchant Link gateway-only account that left many years ago to some custom POS not Shift4. Such a bad take from analysts - I saw one this morning thinking they were using Revel and that our cross sell strategy wasn't working--wrong. @TomSmith839 @jevgenijs Applebees was an old Merchant Link gateway-only account that left many years ago to some custom POS not Shift4. Such a bad take from analysts - I saw one this morning thinking they were using Revel and that our cross sell strategy wasn't working--wrong"
X Link 2025-04-15T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"" I'm not saying the only reason part of the reason the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor was because the US US cut off their access to oil so they were going to starve their economy. So they had to they had to attack us to stop that and to stop that. ""
X Link 2025-04-17T20:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AXP trading in-line with EW S&P500 now but just 8-10% EPS guide for 2025"
X Link 2025-04-17T23:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"what happened to $FTRE -85% T1Y Basis. Starboard Value Pitch from October 2023"
X Link 2025-04-21T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR @Shift4 Question for the incoming CEO: With the founder almost out of the picture can you help us get our arms around the organic growth profile for the business @Shift4 Question for the incoming CEO: With the founder almost out of the picture can you help us get our arms around the organic growth profile for the business"
X Link 2025-04-28T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Mastercard Takes Corpay Cross-Border Payments Stake In High-Value Partnership via @forbes $CPAY old $FLT "Mastercard and Corpay have today announced a partnership that sees Mastercard take a minority stake and invest in Corpays cross-border payments business while bolstering the capabilities of the Mastercard Move platform. "Under the agreement which follows previous collaboration between the companies Mastercard is paying $300m for an approximately 3% stake in Corpays cross-border payments business representing an enterprise valuation for the unit of $10.7bn." The deal valued the cross"
X Link 2025-04-29T17:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"new post out on $AOS let me know if questions or feedback on the report would love to engage"
X Link 2025-04-29T23:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ThomasBraziel what's different on UL pricing power vs other certifications ( Don't know the space sorry if a stupid question) EBITDA Margins look similar vs SGS Bureau Veritas Intertek and Eurofins"
X Link 2025-05-06T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"once proclaimed mega compounder $UNH no longer +47% T5Y Basis S&P500 +110% S&P Healthcare Index +48.5% related piece "But the reality is that UnitedHealth has succeeded brilliantly in capturing a large percentage of the new enrollees in Medicare Advantage over the past several years and the company is now finding there were greater risks than its executives imagined in signing up everybody who applied." https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-groups-91-billion-first https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-groups-91-billion-first"
X Link 2025-05-07T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GFL adds [--] Yr ROIC Improvement and FCF Per Share to LT Incentive Program"
X Link 2025-05-09T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Boomerang CEOs lose on Average $UNH $DIS"
X Link 2025-05-14T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"what are the $BKNG bulls saying about this hotel bookings natively on perplexity are quietly growing. it's one of the under-the-radar features we have right now that has a massive potential to disrupt the ad industry. google's second biggest adword category i think. hotel bookings natively on perplexity are quietly growing. it's one of the under-the-radar features we have right now that has a massive potential to disrupt the ad industry. google's second biggest adword category i think"
X Link 2025-05-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""It is indeed a great paradox: the more the Constellation Software seems less willing to extract value from minority shareholders the higher the CSU multiple perhaps ended up being." $CSU.TO MBI has some very good criticisms on management incentives compensation and excess pay here. Nice work MBI MBI has some very good criticisms on management incentives compensation and excess pay here. Nice work MBI"
X Link 2025-05-21T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Edgepoint on $TMO "we finished the work in january and it was too expensive. couldn't see we were getting the growth for free. then in march the volatility and april. the business went on sale for a price we were willing to pay." "maybe i'll just step back and talk about why the opportunity exists. what you sometimes see is that their is a synergistic effect of concerns. What i mean by that if a sector has one big concern investors will take the time to understand it. If the sector there are two big concerns fewer investors will take the time to understand the concerns. If you get three or"
X Link 2025-05-22T22:18Z [----] followers, 46.2K engagements
"David Barr on $DND.TO DB: I mean stock's just languishing it's down to $8-9 Matt has I think public press release he wants to buy the company for $20 um you know I kind of ask myself why he does that when a stock is trading at $9 AK: tells you the market is giving that offer no credibility exactly DB: like you know I I'm not going to tender my shares to Matt at $20 um because I think this business and the reason Matt wants to do it is he knows private equity would pay $25 plus for this business all day long and so here we are this I mean with the turmoil like there's a whole bunch of"
X Link 2025-05-26T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CB pushes back on litigation financers - negative for those associated with $BUR.LN $BUR ()"
X Link 2025-05-28T15:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The White House is pulling the nomination of Jared Isaacman to be the next NASA administrator just days before he was set to receive a confirmation vote in the Senate according to three people familiar with the matter and confirmed by the administration." $FOUR"
X Link 2025-05-31T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Jared apparently explains what happened with his nomination at NASA $FOUR listening now"
X Link 2025-06-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Jared @rookisaacman apparently explains what happened with his nomination at NASA . listening now $four"
X Link 2025-06-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@bizalmanac @focusonquality_ I think they'd be interested at the right price / structure"
X Link 2025-06-06T21:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In Toronto later this month. If anyone wants to meet up for a drink or dinner 23-27th let me know $YYZ DMs open"
X Link 2025-06-10T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR presented at RBC's FinTech Conference a few takeaways: 65% employee base outside of the USA pro-forma GB deal Multi-class shares remain in place. Jared still controls the business. Trends in may relative consistent with past 18m modest YoY increases in Hotels. Modest declines in restaurants. Things look generally quite healthy More distribution has been insourced over time to account for better growth opportunities in select markets IE Florida New York Boston Chicago. Otherwise for lower density market opportunities. For SMB market still will work with partners (ISVs etc) variable costs"
X Link 2025-06-10T18:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$GB x $FOUR @JerryCap We worked on GB multiple times over the years--it was always attractive as a standalone. The fact that it also comes with scarce payment rails a half-trillion in cross-sell volume & air cover to sell our products into new geographic markets is the bonus. @JerryCap We worked on GB multiple times over the years--it was always attractive as a standalone. The fact that it also comes with scarce payment rails a half-trillion in cross-sell volume & air cover to sell our products into new geographic markets is the bonus"
X Link 2025-06-10T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"why did $TOST win Topgolf as a client last quarter Wouldn't this fall squarely into $FOUR wheelhouse of S&E expertise - Shift4 has a number of large enviable golf course customers what am I missing cc: @rookisaacman @Shift4 @JerryCap @TomSmith839"
X Link 2025-06-12T23:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BUR $BUR.LN "The House version of the bill as passed makes no reference to litigation finance while the Senate draft version includes a provision that aims to increase the statutory tax rate on litigation finance transactions.""
X Link 2025-06-17T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""The Senate draft of the budget reconciliation bill released on June [--] included language notably supported by Senator Tillis (R-NC) that would potentially increase the tax rate on litigation finance activities to 41%." "The outcome of the legislation is of course uncertain and the provision also reads to us as though proceeds rather than pre-tax income could be taxable. There is also a 50% withholding element though our initial take is that would probably affect cash IRS taxes more than GAAP taxes (which drive EPS). Before this BUR shares were up marginally YTD but intraday today BUR shares"
X Link 2025-06-17T17:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BMO buys burgundy for $625m. 2.3% EV/AUM Bank of Montreal is buying Burgundy Asset Management bolstering its wealth management unit by adding an established Canadian firm with C$27 billion under management https://t.co/VTQAHEYI35 Bank of Montreal is buying Burgundy Asset Management bolstering its wealth management unit by adding an established Canadian firm with C$27 billion under management https://t.co/VTQAHEYI35"
X Link 2025-06-19T12:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Evolving market dynamics structures and incentives have the potential to accelerate stablecoins trajectory to reach $2tn in market cap by 2028""
X Link 2025-06-20T16:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The bill mandates that these stablecoins must be fully backed on a 1:1 basis with U.S. dollars or other approved high-quality liquid assets such as Treasury bills and repurchase agreements. Additionally stablecoin issuers must maintain public redemption policies and take necessary steps to ensure price stability relative to the U.S. dollar"
X Link 2025-06-20T21:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR x goes [----] on SmartPay "NYSE: FOUR) a leader in integrated payments and commerce technology has announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Smartpay (NZX:SPY ASX:SMP) a leading independent provider of payment processing and point-of-sale solutions in Australia and New Zealand for NZ$296.4 million ($180m USD) or NZ$1.20 per share. This represents a 46.5% premium " $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW $FOUR x Smartpay Fuck it step on the gas https://t.co/sPb0ozqxmW"
X Link 2025-06-22T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR SWOT Analysis from ChatGPT.o3 Debt estimates #'s are wrong fyi"
X Link 2025-06-30T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FOUR SWOT analysis from Gemini2.5xPro Weaknesses identifies customer service technical support and uptime as areas to improve"
X Link 2025-06-30T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FOUR If you follow me for space aviation defense or the occasional political take--no need to read further. This book of a post is for the fintech nerds. Since I passed on the joy of the quarterly investor letters to @tlaubers I will use the closing of @Shift4s largest If you follow me for space aviation defense or the occasional political take--no need to read further. This book of a post is for the fintech nerds. Since I passed on the joy of the quarterly investor letters to @tlaubers I will use the closing of @Shift4s largest"
X Link 2025-07-03T15:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"potential bear market starting in CAD auto market "On the other end of the spectrum the luxury passenger car segment saw a precipitous 46.9% decrease while the intermediate passenger car segment saw a 33.6% decline. The volatile sport segment saw an 18.9% decrease in sales although Q2 results fared better than Q1." $ACQ.TO"
X Link 2025-07-09T14:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap re: $GPN "Integration Challenges and Execution Risks""
X Link 2025-07-11T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap yeah spaghetti situation is worrisome synergies seem reasonable IMO"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap @JerryCap $GPN x Worldpay Synergies"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FT on Elliot in $GPN https://www.ft.com/content/07ed4eab-99b0-4c90-b47e-7bf0970a0fb5 "Elliott Management builds stake in $GPN in wake of Worldpay deal" https://www.ft.com/content/07ed4eab-99b0-4c90-b47e-7bf0970a0fb5 "Elliott Management builds stake in $GPN in wake of Worldpay deal""
X Link 2025-07-15T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Accenture Rumored to buy WPP $ACN $WPP.LN https://www.prweek.com/article/1925604/accenture-wpp-discussed-potential-m-a-deal https://www.prweek.com/article/1925604/accenture-wpp-discussed-potential-m-a-deal"
X Link 2025-07-15T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The $FICO Monopoly Is Living on Borrowed Time "For now FICO retains formidable advantages and deep integration into financial infrastructure. But the days of100%+ price increases are probably over. In the battle between monopoly profits and regulatory pressure the regulators usually win.""
X Link 2025-07-16T15:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Main objections to $GPN (Worldpay) offering"
X Link 2025-07-18T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""However sales growth has slowed significantly since [----] now below the core acquiring market's high-single growth rate implying market share loss to disruptors like Stripe Fiserv's Clover Shopify and others. That is all very interesting but not what this activist campaign is about. This is about a company that made a poorly received "bet the farm" acquisition and is now at an inflection point that will determine its future." $GPN"
X Link 2025-07-20T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GPN " Worldpay in terms of protected market share they're not going to lose their market share overnight. If anything if they don't continue to try to innovate through acquisitions or building it's going to be like a death by a thousand cuts but it's going to be slow. If I was invested in Worldpay today then I would at least have peace of mind that "Okay Worldpay is not going to lose significant market share overnight."""
X Link 2025-07-21T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Historically good sales trends from bank channels integration solutions (Mercury) - rev share incentive helps with bank partners. Incremental growth opportunity should be much easier excl. USA"
X Link 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Who's going to gain the most incremental traction or market share going forward"
X Link 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why FreedomPay and Shift4 $FOUR "Shift4 is the only provider along with Adyen that has out-of-the-box integrations. Unless the merchant wants to wait and hopefully these other providers are willing to either pay for and build the integration to that point of sale if they want something that's just out of the box that's already proven with other merchants then Shift4 or Adyen are the only two choices.""
X Link 2025-07-21T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What's your favorite healthcare stock Why"
X Link 2025-07-21T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"but believe due to high self pay repaired vehicles and TLV/ELVs are cyclically pressuring claims numbers "Decline in repairable claims is cyclical not structural" $LKQ $BYD.TO"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JimmyDaGreek76 ya has been a tailwind for those two - unclear what the go forward CAGR / impact though"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
""Google is the only company with an at-scale ASIC alternative to Nvidia GPUs which should give them a meaningful cost advantage; to that end to the extent that cloud compute becomes commoditized is the extent to which Google actually has a margin advantage." $GOOGL"
X Link 2025-07-24T18:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VLE.TO roughly 8x'd its gross acreage in Thailand through a farm-in agreement with PTTEP (60% owner). Acreage is adjacent to Erawan/Bongkot gas fields. Pays 14.7m plus incremental costs for seismic - after earn-in costs split based on ownership. Fiscal terms 10% royalty up to 50% cost recovery and 50% contractor profit share and 20% corporate tax rate. [--] wells planned for 2025"
X Link 2025-07-25T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/patrick-dovigi-billionaire-real-estate-29f38aa0mod=hp_lead_pos10 https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/patrick-dovigi-billionaire-real-estate-29f38aa0mod=hp_lead_pos10"
X Link 2025-08-01T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""Two observations here: 1) a low-teens post-tax ROIIC is not yet value destructive in the sense that it is likely still above Metas cost of capital but presumably shareholders would prefer buybacks; and 2) obviously if the superintelligence investment was not meeting internal expectations Meta should cut capex. Our biggest concern is that instead of rationally reducing capex an irrational decision is made to throw even more money at the problem (in line with current LLM scaling laws). " $META via @GHadjia @itsDanielWu"
X Link 2025-08-01T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/meta-platforms-meta-2q25-supermetalligence https://www.bristlemoonresearch.com/p/meta-platforms-meta-2q25-supermetalligence"
X Link 2025-08-01T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"new Genius offering at $GPN seems like its getting traction with restaurants. https://www.globalpayments.com/en-ca/industries/restaurant https://www.globalpayments.com/en-ca/industries/restaurant"
X Link 2025-08-07T02:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"transformation on track - accelerating 10% of initiatives which were originally planned for [----] down from [--] POS to 1"
X Link 2025-08-07T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
Topic Creators
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/:topic/creators/v1
Get the top creators for a social topic
input parameters:
- topic: Provide the topic to get details for. A topic must be all lower case and can only include letters, numbers, spaces, # and $. required
Example request:
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/topic/bitcoin/creators/v1
Example response:
{
"data": [
{
"creator_id": "twitter::1605310254085980161",
"creator_name": "Bitcoin_Teddy",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1739753415134138368/FrWHMAnb_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 74293,
"creator_rank": 1,
"interactions_24h": [-------]
}
]
}
Schema:
- creator_id: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
- creator_name: The unique screen name for the influencer
- creator_avatar: The URL to the avatar for the creator
- creator_followers: number of followers the account has
- creator_rank: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
- interactions_24h: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
Creators List
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1
Get a list of trending social creators over all of social based on interactions. To get lists of creators by category or topic see the topics and categories endpoints.
Example request:
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creators/list/v1
Example response:
{
"data": [
{
"creator_name": "elonmusk",
"creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
"creator_id": "44196397",
"creator_network": "twitter",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 234295750,
"creator_posts": 3649,
"creator_rank": 1,
"interactions_24h": [---------]
}
]
}
Schema:
- creator_name: The unique screen name for the influencer
- creator_display_name: The chosen display name for the influencer if available
- creator_id: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
- creator_network: The social network for the post or influencer. We still refer to x as twitter out of developer preference.
- creator_avatar: The URL to the avatar for the creator
- creator_followers: number of followers the account has
- creator_posts: total number of posts with interactions in the last [--] hours
- creator_rank: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
- interactions_24h: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
Creator
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/v1
Get detail information on a specific creator
input parameters:
- network: Provide the network for the creator. One of twitter, youtube, instagram, reddit, or tiktok required
- id: Provide the unique ID or screen name of the creator required
Example request:
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/elonmusk/v1
Example response:
{
"data": {
"creator_id": "twitter::44196397",
"creator_name": "elonmusk",
"creator_display_name": "Elon Musk",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2008546467615580160/57KcqsTA_200x200.jpg",
"creator_followers": 234296337,
"creator_rank": 2,
"interactions_24h": 318539577,
"topic_influence": [
{
"topic": "in the",
"count": 294,
"percent": 5.88,
"rank": [--]
}
],
"top_community": [
{
"creator_name": "grok",
"creator_display_name": "Grok",
"creator_avatar": "https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1893219113717342208/Vgg2hEPa_200x200.jpg",
"count": [---]
}
]
}
}
Schema:
- creator_id: The [network]::[unique_id] for the influencer
- creator_name: The unique screen name for the influencer
- creator_display_name: The chosen display name for the influencer if available
- creator_avatar: The URL to the avatar for the creator
- creator_followers: number of followers the account has
- creator_rank: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
- interactions_24h: Number of interactions in the last [--] hours
- topic_influence: an array of social topics and the creators ranking on each topic
- topic: LunarCrush social topic. Can only includes letters, numbers, spaces, #, and $
- top_community: an array of the top accounts that have recently mentioned this creator or that this creator has mentioned
Creator Time Series
https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/:network/:id/time-series/v1
Get time series data on a creator.
input parameters:
- network: Influencer social network required
- id: The unique id or screen name of the creator required
- bucket: bucket time series data into hours or days. default is hours.
- interval: Use interval to specify the start and end time automatically for convenience. If "start" or "end" parameters are provided this parameter is ignored.
- start: The start time (unix timestamp) to go back to.
- end: The end time (unix timestamp) to stop at.
Example request:
curl -H "Authorization: Bearer <API_KEY>" https://lunarcrush.com/api4/public/creator/twitter/lunarcrush/time-series/v1
Example response:
{
"config": {
"network": "twitter",
"influencer_id": "twitter::988992203568562176",
"interval": "1w",
"start": 1769990400,
"end": 1770681600,
"bucket": "hour",
"name": "lunarcrush",
"remote_api": "danode1-13",
"generated": [----------]
},
"data": [
{
"time": 1769990400,
"followers": 305326,
"interactions": 717,
"posts_active": 14,
"creator_rank": [------]
}
]
}
Schema:
- config: This includes the inputs for the request processed by the server and may include additional hints about the request and response information.
- network: The social network for the post or influencer. We still refer to x as twitter out of developer preference.
- interval: Typically used for specifying time intervals like 1w = [--] week, 1m = [--] month etc
- start: Start/from unix timestamp (in seconds)
- end: End/to unix timestamp (in seconds)
- bucket: Data is generally bucketed into hours or days
- name: The full name of the asset
- generated: A unix timestamp (in seconds) when the data was generated to understand possibly stale data
- time: A unix timestamp (in seconds)
- followers: The number of publicly displayed followers the creator has
- interactions: number of all publicly measurable interactions on a social post (views, likes, comments, thumbs up, upvote, share etc)
- posts_active: number of unique social posts with interactions
- creator_rank: ranking based on all posts in the last [--] hours that have interactions
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing