#  @i9theghost5 TheGhost TheGhost posts on X about $oscr, oscr, business, $u the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1106878969096351745/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +183% - [--] Month [------] +230% - [--] Months [-------] -73% - [--] Year [---------] +33% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1106878969096351745/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +66% - [--] Month [---] -79% - [--] Months [-----] +346% - [--] Year [-----] +110% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1106878969096351745/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.83% - [--] Month [-----] +0.59% - [--] Months [-----] -0.02% - [--] Year [-----] -0.27% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1106878969096351745/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 38.78% [finance](/list/finance) 16.33% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 7.14% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.06% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1.02% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 1.02% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 1.02% **Social topic influence** [$oscr](/topic/$oscr) #62, [oscr](/topic/oscr) #55, [business](/topic/business) 7.14%, [$u](/topic/$u) #57, [valuation](/topic/valuation) #56, [if you](/topic/if-you) 4.08%, [check](/topic/check) 3.06%, [$asan](/topic/$asan) #8, [alltime](/topic/alltime) #690, [$googl](/topic/$googl) 3.06% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@donald04284612](/creator/undefined) [@clarksquarecap](/creator/undefined) [@dongreco21](/creator/undefined) [@investingwithac](/creator/undefined) [@zchumyt](/creator/undefined) [@dexfi](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@vixandmore](/creator/undefined) [@bellex29](/creator/undefined) [@rubicon59](/creator/undefined) [@wcgamerbg](/creator/undefined) [@showteczek](/creator/undefined) [@ccmbrett](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@bellex29_](/creator/undefined) [@wc_gamer_bg](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)](/topic/$oscr) [Unity Software Inc. (U)](/topic/$u) [Asana, Inc. (ASAN)](/topic/$asan) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Eclipse (ES)](/topic/$es) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Hyperliquid (HYPE)](/topic/$hype) [Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)](/topic/$rivn) [UiPath, Inc. (PATH)](/topic/$path) [DLocal Limited (DLO)](/topic/$dlo) [InMode Ltd. Ordinary Shares (INMD)](/topic/$inmd) [Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI)](/topic/$si) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Elevance Health Inc (ELV)](/topic/$elv) [Centene Corp (CNC)](/topic/$cnc) [UnitedHealth Group (UNH)](/topic/$unh) [Cigna Corp (CI)](/topic/$ci) [CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/cvs) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [Humana Inc (HUM)](/topic/$hum) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Big day tomorrow $OSCR After doing the valuation this weekend I was reflecting on the fact that the market is selling for less than $3B a company that: Could achieve realistically $20B revenues in [--] years and $30B in 5" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020895504389824767) 2026-02-09T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ZChumYT Lmfao loved mothership zeta hope theyll do a F3 remastered w all the DLCs" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021383892696170659) 2026-02-11T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bought Unity Today -32% on Earnings last [--] trading days it lost -60% almost unheard of Will do a deep dive model similar to Oscar in the coming weeks But here the Market is implying 13% FCF growth for the next [--] yrs w [--] PFCF terminal FCF today is growing 60% $U" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021598370905641323) 2026-02-11T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What are we even talking about😂 Later today will cross check and update my model with [----] guidance But Revenues are insane lol They are selling a business that is guiding for $400M Earnings at the high point for $2.9B [----] of PE Get the fk out here send it to $50 $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021181602512994783) 2026-02-10T11:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HYPE continuing to find resistence at the ATH VWAP Now also below a declining [---] Crypto is and still remains in a bear market More and more coins are starting to be below a declining [---] day breadth is terrible" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021577925280125188) 2026-02-11T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD9 proved irrelevant Another -11% today and all software stocks imploding again I mean at this point is just comical -5/10% across the board today again lol $ASAN" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021631840130310250) 2026-02-11T17:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Filled on everything $RIVN order just entered this morning $0.03 off the intraday low lol Regarding $PATH I would have never ever expected it would break the November lows Its now two weeks that is selling off continuously looks excessive $ASAN too" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2018707252681593259) 2026-02-03T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Position that is truly proving to be a pain in the ass is $OSCR Finalizing the valuation the last [--] days but Im pretty sure the business is worth multiples from here But market is fully attached still to all this ACA enhanced subsidy bullshit And not looking past that" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2019149290246209543) 2026-02-04T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Other positions that do no concern me and are actually holding up quite well in the past 2/3 wks are $DLO $GRVY and $INMD Godforbid value in the last [--] might be soon unlocked Finally $GLO still waiting for this financing to put an end to those dilutions unclear when will come" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2019158544671731824) 2026-02-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Metals look kinda cooked They had a bounce back to the ATH VWAP but got promtly shoved lower Silver had -16% in [--] hours what are we talking about shitcoin level type of stuff Also long term charts were parabolic so it's not looking good $GC $SI" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2019364215929335955) 2026-02-05T10:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Will do a thread on $OSCR this weekend finally crunched all numbers Simply put the market is implying Armageddon for this company and a -15/20% in membership reduction Any scenario in which the ACA is holding up or Oscar is even gaining members and marketshare is discounted" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2019715704304583052) 2026-02-06T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Thats probably it $ES $NQ $VIX" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2019907946738503804) 2026-02-06T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Turbo-short liquidation cascade in the coming weeks To the woodshed Its crazy tho that we got the highest print in [--] years while S&P was just -3.5% albeit single names were indeed getting massacred $ES $NQ" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020069345104105706) 2026-02-07T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Market and Analysts last year were expecting a shrinkage of -15% to -30% It's important to note tho that given the elapsing Enhanced Subs a lot of people who enrolled may decide to be uninsured due to surging premiums So final decline will be bigger than the current -4.94%" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159869047783468) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With that said focusing on $OSCR itself Indication from Oscar App in the AppStore and Google Play store it surged among the top 5/10 in the health category during the Open Enrollment Period the past month Moreover Google Search for Oscar Health are at their alltime high" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159872143135144) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's true that google searches may refer also to the interest in the stock itself not people getting informed to be insured Peak in July I think was due to the Stock But the ATH reached during the OEP is definitely interesting and likely tied to people discovering Oscar" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159874299035650) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Moreover from LinkedIn $OSCR currently has 250+ Open positions which amount to a +10% increase in their Employee count All these info points to the fact that most likely Oscar is actually gaining Market Share and Members in the ACA while the ACA itself is shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159876853293432) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And I'm completely exluding ICHRA and potential acceleration in membership there so here I think I'm being quite damn conservative Moving to Premium I assumed a 15% growth for Q1 [----] always front-loaded premium increases at the beginning each year the rest are 5% growth" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159885963411543) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's important to note that $OSCR filed for a 28% this year To win Market Share attract clients and retain existing ones I assumed a lower Premium increase but keep in mind that Premium is also strictly tied to utilization and Medical costs" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159888639373336) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With all those assumptions I arrived at the following Revenues $14.7B this year $17B next and $29B in [----] around 19.76% CAGR from the $12B of [----] I think this is reasonable and achievable consider also growth and expansion into ICHRAs instead of ACA $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159895178269012) 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "SG&A Ratio again here I think the overall assumption that they'll be able to harness Operational Leverage AI and improve by roughly 1% point each year is reasonable and is way more conservative that what was acheived in all the prior years EBIT and Earnings are a consequence" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020169026358698089) 2026-02-07T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Terminal Value I used a [--] of PE Which is in line with the historical average for all the Health Insurance I check $ELV $MOH $CNC $UNH $HUM $CI $CVS I think is reasonable through market panic or euphoria it might be lower [--] or it might be higher 20/25 [--] think is fine" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020169470660993147) 2026-02-07T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For the present value I always use 15% no matter what Takes care of some aggressive assumptions that might have been made in the model With that NPV of the EV is $19.1B adjusting for the Debt and Net liquidity Equity value comes $19.3B $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020170995919659453) 2026-02-07T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For the shares I assumed a 10% share inflation on top of the current Diluted Shs outstanding And the current Value comes out to be $67.99/sh Again not saying this is what the Market should price the stock this is what comes out given the assumptions discussed $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020171819890721116) 2026-02-07T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To conclude Guidance next week will help to better gauge the assumptions for [----] and onward I'll keep on reviewing and updating the whole model and improving it MLR maybe less optimistic and SG&A ratio improving more slowly" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020173834511401366) 2026-02-07T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anyhow in my opinion $OSCR as a stock is significantly undervalued for long term investors who can stomach the volatility And in the coming years will deliver good returns to the patient ones" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020174160614375711) 2026-02-07T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So the market in the past [--] weeks carved out trillions of Value from stocks and billions from SaaS businesses Due to a pretty much retarded lobotomized AI lol Granted that Goldman Sach is doing cool things with it and fully integrating it but it took [--] mnths to setup $GS" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020457689063587914) 2026-02-08T11:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Wild swings continue to happen in deep Red states before TX now Louisiana [--] points swing in just a year and a half is insane Between the Epstein files uncovering all the dirt they tried to hide and the racist video against Obama With that they lost the African American vote" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020474663067897863) 2026-02-08T12:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Quite wild Markets at time are just stupid $AMZN this year is *almost* like $GOOG last year Not quite because Google was at [--] of PE but is definitely interesting Amazon here While $WMT now is kinda like $COST last year at [--] of PE" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020588250897981863) 2026-02-08T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Bellex29_ Definitely Here on the membership growth and thus revenue growth I was very very conservative 12% CAGR for members might be extremely low 19% CAGR for Rev also The faster it grows top line the faster SG&A ratio declines and more flows to the bottom line" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020591845705953463) 2026-02-08T20:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@rubicon59 Even in general looking at plain free-cash flow and shares inflation is better than adjusting FCF At the end of the day cashflow is cashflow and SBC is not that its a substitute but not that" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020788658115146070) 2026-02-09T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "TD9 for $ASAN today Its well below the [--] years base the low point of that is $11.50 Business is at [--] of PFCF but growing it 100% QoQ Stock dont think will get much cheaper at -50% since the last earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020911683762298906) 2026-02-09T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "What about $19B this year instead of $20B in [--] years They are growing and gaining market share at a crazy rate EBIT and Earnings as well as MLR and SG&A ratio in line with my estimate But Revenues a massive surge $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021182215783063560) 2026-02-10T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "+4% pre market I think it does but lets see today how spot goes Its not bigger because Q4 results were not great And also the fact they opened a $450M credit lines underscores how the increase in morbidity impacted them this year $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021229064556519493) 2026-02-10T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It seems as Net Liquidity drops below $500M they want to raise a bit to be safe on the claims Same thing happened in September after Q3 results Will post later how I calculate Net Liquidity $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021229071456141578) 2026-02-10T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WC_Gamer_BG @Showteczek lol Mark for sure gonna risk his reputation on a guidance figure 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021229325182214378) 2026-02-10T14:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the kind of dynamic I was talking about 40% short interest already eventually there might be a real opportunity here Dont think we are there yet regulatory risk dont seem to be yet cleared $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021290451953684966) 2026-02-10T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If you are a long term investor today you got very excited about the long term prospects and potential of the company If you are a trader or swinger you probably got hooked up on the short-term capital needs the company had and the likely bullshit lawsuit $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021300918193455187) 2026-02-10T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Donald04284612 Correct will see how they react in the coming days I believe a tad more my model and the value there came out $60 But again here if you believe Mark and the team the company is trading at [--] of PE of this year not even forward Forward it might even be at [--] or lower" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021302531964403860) 2026-02-10T19:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Donald04284612 Agree agree But if you update the figs the value is much higher than a x2 now But for sure they'll be more cautious Stock reaction was dumpened by the lawsuit today and the $450M facility confirms that they are a bit strained in terms of Utilization" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021319597815627913) 2026-02-10T20:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CCM_Brett @fiscal_ai This where all the profitability will come from Check out my valuation if you wanna dive deeper" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021370599994794495) 2026-02-10T23:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Lol One asks and the market giveth Reading earnings might buy it today $U" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021569474919367148) 2026-02-11T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Full Valuation and overview of Oscar Important to note that I tried to be conservative in each metric any feedback is much appreciated I don't necessarily agree with the final result but is to show how Negative the market is for the long-term prospects of the business $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020159859786760529) 2026-02-07T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Complete deep dive on $OSCR and its Valuation I don't necessarily ascribe to the final number presented But I think that the stock is severly undervalued if one intends to hold it for the long term and is agnostic to volatility I have both a Spot and LEAPS position on the name" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020174890675118121) 2026-02-07T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bad news continuing to pile in Pre market -22% for $HIMS +5% for $NVO If someone put up a spread trade Long NVO Short HIMS in the past days is defo printing Think that eventually the market will be extremely negative $HIMS to create an opportunity not there yet tho" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2020865877667652001) 2026-02-09T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Starting to already regret not having bought $U in my $21-26 buying area I did not have a pending order and did not manually buy it Lets see if we have a bit of sideway action and sweep of the lows with lower vol and a less impulsive move There Id be defo buy $U" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021262796596428947) 2026-02-10T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Updating the model tomorrow will share everything Here guidance vs prior model for [----] I was conservative on the members and Revenues did not expect that massive Mkt Share gain But was too optimistic on MLR and S&A All in all EBIT and Earnigns not that far off $OSCR" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021694407586578824) 2026-02-11T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Highest volumes in the history of the stock happened today and [--] wks ago Definitely lots of shares changing hands/people getting liquidated Today in particular with the sweep below the [--] years base and for now back inside it is quite good $U" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021661671882993873) 2026-02-11T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Closed inside the base Highest Vol ever after a -63% in [--] months ngl that volume starting to look like the final flush at the apex of the move Once done updating $OSCR will start the comprehensive model for the Valuation of Unity Napking "inversion" math says undervalued $U" [X Link](https://x.com/i9theghost5/status/2021696271971504302) 2026-02-11T21:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@i9theghost5 TheGhost
TheGhost posts on X about $oscr, oscr, business, $u the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] +183%
- [--] Month [------] +230%
- [--] Months [-------] -73%
- [--] Year [---------] +33%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +66%
- [--] Month [---] -79%
- [--] Months [-----] +346%
- [--] Year [-----] +110%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.83%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.59%
- [--] Months [-----] -0.02%
- [--] Year [-----] -0.27%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 38.78% finance 16.33% technology brands 7.14% cryptocurrencies 3.06% social networks 1.02% financial services 1.02% celebrities 1.02%
Social topic influence $oscr #62, oscr #55, business 7.14%, $u #57, valuation #56, if you 4.08%, check 3.06%, $asan #8, alltime #690, $googl 3.06%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @donald04284612 @clarksquarecap @dongreco21 @investingwithac @zchumyt @dexfi @realroseceline @vixandmore @bellex29 @rubicon59 @wcgamerbg @showteczek @ccmbrett @fiscalai @bellex29_ @wc_gamer_bg
Top assets mentioned Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Unity Software Inc. (U) Asana, Inc. (ASAN) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Eclipse (ES) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Hyperliquid (HYPE) Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) UiPath, Inc. (PATH) DLocal Limited (DLO) InMode Ltd. Ordinary Shares (INMD) Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI) Vixco (VIX) SPX6900 (SPX) Elevance Health Inc (ELV) Centene Corp (CNC) UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Cigna Corp (CI) CVS Health Corp (CVS) Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Humana Inc (HUM) GammaSwap (GS) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Costco Hot Dog (COST)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Big day tomorrow $OSCR After doing the valuation this weekend I was reflecting on the fact that the market is selling for less than $3B a company that: Could achieve realistically $20B revenues in [--] years and $30B in 5"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ZChumYT Lmfao loved mothership zeta hope theyll do a F3 remastered w all the DLCs"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bought Unity Today -32% on Earnings last [--] trading days it lost -60% almost unheard of Will do a deep dive model similar to Oscar in the coming weeks But here the Market is implying 13% FCF growth for the next [--] yrs w [--] PFCF terminal FCF today is growing 60% $U"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What are we even talking about😂 Later today will cross check and update my model with [----] guidance But Revenues are insane lol They are selling a business that is guiding for $400M Earnings at the high point for $2.9B [----] of PE Get the fk out here send it to $50 $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HYPE continuing to find resistence at the ATH VWAP Now also below a declining [---] Crypto is and still remains in a bear market More and more coins are starting to be below a declining [---] day breadth is terrible"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD9 proved irrelevant Another -11% today and all software stocks imploding again I mean at this point is just comical -5/10% across the board today again lol $ASAN"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Filled on everything $RIVN order just entered this morning $0.03 off the intraday low lol Regarding $PATH I would have never ever expected it would break the November lows Its now two weeks that is selling off continuously looks excessive $ASAN too"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Position that is truly proving to be a pain in the ass is $OSCR Finalizing the valuation the last [--] days but Im pretty sure the business is worth multiples from here But market is fully attached still to all this ACA enhanced subsidy bullshit And not looking past that"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Other positions that do no concern me and are actually holding up quite well in the past 2/3 wks are $DLO $GRVY and $INMD Godforbid value in the last [--] might be soon unlocked Finally $GLO still waiting for this financing to put an end to those dilutions unclear when will come"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Metals look kinda cooked They had a bounce back to the ATH VWAP but got promtly shoved lower Silver had -16% in [--] hours what are we talking about shitcoin level type of stuff Also long term charts were parabolic so it's not looking good $GC $SI"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Will do a thread on $OSCR this weekend finally crunched all numbers Simply put the market is implying Armageddon for this company and a -15/20% in membership reduction Any scenario in which the ACA is holding up or Oscar is even gaining members and marketshare is discounted"
X Link 2026-02-06T10:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Thats probably it $ES $NQ $VIX"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Turbo-short liquidation cascade in the coming weeks To the woodshed Its crazy tho that we got the highest print in [--] years while S&P was just -3.5% albeit single names were indeed getting massacred $ES $NQ"
X Link 2026-02-07T09:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Market and Analysts last year were expecting a shrinkage of -15% to -30% It's important to note tho that given the elapsing Enhanced Subs a lot of people who enrolled may decide to be uninsured due to surging premiums So final decline will be bigger than the current -4.94%"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With that said focusing on $OSCR itself Indication from Oscar App in the AppStore and Google Play store it surged among the top 5/10 in the health category during the Open Enrollment Period the past month Moreover Google Search for Oscar Health are at their alltime high"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's true that google searches may refer also to the interest in the stock itself not people getting informed to be insured Peak in July I think was due to the Stock But the ATH reached during the OEP is definitely interesting and likely tied to people discovering Oscar"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Moreover from LinkedIn $OSCR currently has 250+ Open positions which amount to a +10% increase in their Employee count All these info points to the fact that most likely Oscar is actually gaining Market Share and Members in the ACA while the ACA itself is shrinking"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And I'm completely exluding ICHRA and potential acceleration in membership there so here I think I'm being quite damn conservative Moving to Premium I assumed a 15% growth for Q1 [----] always front-loaded premium increases at the beginning each year the rest are 5% growth"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's important to note that $OSCR filed for a 28% this year To win Market Share attract clients and retain existing ones I assumed a lower Premium increase but keep in mind that Premium is also strictly tied to utilization and Medical costs"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With all those assumptions I arrived at the following Revenues $14.7B this year $17B next and $29B in [----] around 19.76% CAGR from the $12B of [----] I think this is reasonable and achievable consider also growth and expansion into ICHRAs instead of ACA $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"SG&A Ratio again here I think the overall assumption that they'll be able to harness Operational Leverage AI and improve by roughly 1% point each year is reasonable and is way more conservative that what was acheived in all the prior years EBIT and Earnings are a consequence"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Terminal Value I used a [--] of PE Which is in line with the historical average for all the Health Insurance I check $ELV $MOH $CNC $UNH $HUM $CI $CVS I think is reasonable through market panic or euphoria it might be lower [--] or it might be higher 20/25 [--] think is fine"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For the present value I always use 15% no matter what Takes care of some aggressive assumptions that might have been made in the model With that NPV of the EV is $19.1B adjusting for the Debt and Net liquidity Equity value comes $19.3B $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For the shares I assumed a 10% share inflation on top of the current Diluted Shs outstanding And the current Value comes out to be $67.99/sh Again not saying this is what the Market should price the stock this is what comes out given the assumptions discussed $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To conclude Guidance next week will help to better gauge the assumptions for [----] and onward I'll keep on reviewing and updating the whole model and improving it MLR maybe less optimistic and SG&A ratio improving more slowly"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyhow in my opinion $OSCR as a stock is significantly undervalued for long term investors who can stomach the volatility And in the coming years will deliver good returns to the patient ones"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So the market in the past [--] weeks carved out trillions of Value from stocks and billions from SaaS businesses Due to a pretty much retarded lobotomized AI lol Granted that Goldman Sach is doing cool things with it and fully integrating it but it took [--] mnths to setup $GS"
X Link 2026-02-08T11:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Wild swings continue to happen in deep Red states before TX now Louisiana [--] points swing in just a year and a half is insane Between the Epstein files uncovering all the dirt they tried to hide and the racist video against Obama With that they lost the African American vote"
X Link 2026-02-08T12:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Quite wild Markets at time are just stupid $AMZN this year is almost like $GOOG last year Not quite because Google was at [--] of PE but is definitely interesting Amazon here While $WMT now is kinda like $COST last year at [--] of PE"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Bellex29_ Definitely Here on the membership growth and thus revenue growth I was very very conservative 12% CAGR for members might be extremely low 19% CAGR for Rev also The faster it grows top line the faster SG&A ratio declines and more flows to the bottom line"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@rubicon59 Even in general looking at plain free-cash flow and shares inflation is better than adjusting FCF At the end of the day cashflow is cashflow and SBC is not that its a substitute but not that"
X Link 2026-02-09T09:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"TD9 for $ASAN today Its well below the [--] years base the low point of that is $11.50 Business is at [--] of PFCF but growing it 100% QoQ Stock dont think will get much cheaper at -50% since the last earnings"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"What about $19B this year instead of $20B in [--] years They are growing and gaining market share at a crazy rate EBIT and Earnings as well as MLR and SG&A ratio in line with my estimate But Revenues a massive surge $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"+4% pre market I think it does but lets see today how spot goes Its not bigger because Q4 results were not great And also the fact they opened a $450M credit lines underscores how the increase in morbidity impacted them this year $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It seems as Net Liquidity drops below $500M they want to raise a bit to be safe on the claims Same thing happened in September after Q3 results Will post later how I calculate Net Liquidity $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WC_Gamer_BG @Showteczek lol Mark for sure gonna risk his reputation on a guidance figure 😂"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the kind of dynamic I was talking about 40% short interest already eventually there might be a real opportunity here Dont think we are there yet regulatory risk dont seem to be yet cleared $HIMS"
X Link 2026-02-10T18:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If you are a long term investor today you got very excited about the long term prospects and potential of the company If you are a trader or swinger you probably got hooked up on the short-term capital needs the company had and the likely bullshit lawsuit $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Donald04284612 Correct will see how they react in the coming days I believe a tad more my model and the value there came out $60 But again here if you believe Mark and the team the company is trading at [--] of PE of this year not even forward Forward it might even be at [--] or lower"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Donald04284612 Agree agree But if you update the figs the value is much higher than a x2 now But for sure they'll be more cautious Stock reaction was dumpened by the lawsuit today and the $450M facility confirms that they are a bit strained in terms of Utilization"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CCM_Brett @fiscal_ai This where all the profitability will come from Check out my valuation if you wanna dive deeper"
X Link 2026-02-10T23:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Lol One asks and the market giveth Reading earnings might buy it today $U"
X Link 2026-02-11T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Full Valuation and overview of Oscar Important to note that I tried to be conservative in each metric any feedback is much appreciated I don't necessarily agree with the final result but is to show how Negative the market is for the long-term prospects of the business $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Complete deep dive on $OSCR and its Valuation I don't necessarily ascribe to the final number presented But I think that the stock is severly undervalued if one intends to hold it for the long term and is agnostic to volatility I have both a Spot and LEAPS position on the name"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bad news continuing to pile in Pre market -22% for $HIMS +5% for $NVO If someone put up a spread trade Long NVO Short HIMS in the past days is defo printing Think that eventually the market will be extremely negative $HIMS to create an opportunity not there yet tho"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Starting to already regret not having bought $U in my $21-26 buying area I did not have a pending order and did not manually buy it Lets see if we have a bit of sideway action and sweep of the lows with lower vol and a less impulsive move There Id be defo buy $U"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Updating the model tomorrow will share everything Here guidance vs prior model for [----] I was conservative on the members and Revenues did not expect that massive Mkt Share gain But was too optimistic on MLR and S&A All in all EBIT and Earnigns not that far off $OSCR"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Highest volumes in the history of the stock happened today and [--] wks ago Definitely lots of shares changing hands/people getting liquidated Today in particular with the sweep below the [--] years base and for now back inside it is quite good $U"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Closed inside the base Highest Vol ever after a -63% in [--] months ngl that volume starting to look like the final flush at the apex of the move Once done updating $OSCR will start the comprehensive model for the Valuation of Unity Napking "inversion" math says undervalued $U"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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