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# ![@hydrocarbro Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1338621404426760197.png) @hydrocarbro HQM

HQM posts on X about inflation, china, tariffs, debt the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1338621404426760197/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1338621404426760197/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +215%
- [--] Month [-----] -77%
- [--] Months [------] +825%
- [--] Year [------] +140%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1338621404426760197/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1338621404426760197/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Months [--] -18%
- [--] Year [--] -29%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1338621404426760197/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1338621404426760197/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.97%
- [--] Month [---] -1.40%
- [--] Months [---] -0.48%
- [--] Year [---] +60%

### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1338621404426760197/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1338621404426760197/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [formula 1](/list/formula-1) 

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation), [china](/topic/china), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [debt](/topic/debt), [ai](/topic/ai), [guyana](/topic/guyana), [countries](/topic/countries), [$tip](/topic/$tip), [uber](/topic/uber), [bullish](/topic/bullish)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@andreassteno](/creator/undefined) [@kacperpkch](/creator/undefined) [@citrini7](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@jackfarley96](/creator/undefined) [@michaelxpettis](/creator/undefined) [@robinjbrooks](/creator/undefined) [@macroalf](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@mbjegovic](/creator/undefined) [@geopapic](/creator/undefined) [@doggydog1208](/creator/undefined) [@nicktimiraos](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@fcfinvest](/creator/undefined) [@blacklioncta](/creator/undefined) [@donnellybrent](/creator/undefined) [@biancoresearch](/creator/undefined) [@samanthaladuc](/creator/undefined) [@santiagoaufund](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/uber) [Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)](/topic/$tsn) [General Mills, Inc. (GIS)](/topic/$gis) [Hershey Co (HSY)](/topic/$hsy) [dHedge DAO (DHT)](/topic/$dht) [Bancolombia S.A. (CIB)](/topic/$cib) [Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)](/topic/$knsl) [SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)](/topic/$slg) [Cousins Properties Inc. (CUZ)](/topic/$cuz) [Premia (PREMIA)](/topic/premia) [CITADEL (CITADEL)](/topic/citadel) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/google) [Avalanche (AVAX)](/topic/avalanche) [QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)](/topic/qualcomm) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Xphere (XP)](/topic/$xp) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [RAMP (RAMP)](/topic/ramp) [BUBBLES (BUBBLES)](/topic/bubbles) [Gains (GAINS)](/topic/gains) [Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)](/topic/banco-santander)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@RobinBrooksIIF The Colombian Peso rallied even harder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1618239442325745665)  2023-01-25T13:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@MartyChargin $GIS seems to be positively correlated to grain prices. Same could be true for $HSY and sugar prices (which kind of struggle to come down). Any thoughts on that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1659613631170920451)  2023-05-19T17:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MartyChargin 😂 yeah it trades like an AI tech stock. All these special situation multiples are still priced in. Shorts in both are going fine so far the long pairtrade $TSN stands stable. Lower input costs and a switch from carbs to proteins could support the thesis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1659621621374525440)  2023-05-19T18:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroAlf In some assets a stagflation is already overpriced in: $GIS $HSY sugar futures etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1661153593641299968)  2023-05-23T23:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheImpaler83 @SpeakerMcCarthy @POTUS What counts for markets is liquidity. It is at a tipping point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1661877313498144774)  2023-05-25T23:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@SantiagoAuFund Long $TSN 🙃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1666352044553261056)  2023-06-07T07:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jessefelder Long dated calls on $TIP 🧐"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1671601461375934464)  2023-06-21T19:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@options_insight What about TIPS Do long dated calls on $TIP look attractive to you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1674046780248301569)  2023-06-28T13:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@julianHjessop So economica contraction is excellent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1674321534062587907)  2023-06-29T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@eliant_capital Double top in rates & Double dip in equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1674610706484801537)  2023-06-30T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@_MercuriEX_ @eliant_capital If it wen back down the reasons for that would for sure drag down equities as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1674611034835828738)  2023-06-30T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DoubleWideCap @chevychasinrips Or it follows DAX and Nikkei"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1677428642719186945)  2023-07-07T21:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives Long $TIP instead of $TLT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1678913412753965058)  2023-07-12T01:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Food inflation is really a big issue in EM CPI baskets. The reaction function focuses a lot more on food. If we will see a rebound in grains and the dollar that could bode quite negative for EM bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1683823770434240512)  2023-07-25T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Dcpcooks Is it plausible that $TIP outperforms $IEF in such a case Real duration outperforming nominal duration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1684139032819773440)  2023-07-31T17:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@DiegoFassnacht 5% Zins(kosten) bedeutet hhere Inflation bzw in Kombination mit der demographischen Situation eher Stagflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1695685834341601566)  2023-08-27T06:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MichaelAArouet Real assets outperform only in times of systematic policy errors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1697926063848886527)  2023-09-02T10:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@SantiagoAuFund Seriously It has some good elements but all in all it is just propaganda"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1698493040917123117)  2023-09-04T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PaolaGuscoffIIF Would it be wise for the banco de la republica to ease in october"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1699803082324947043)  2023-09-07T15:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Maybe not. Mexican exports need to stay cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1701007990726541519)  2023-09-10T23:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA A risk positive Yen day draging down the USD in several currency pairs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1701205200675991606)  2023-09-11T12:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno A stronger CNY will not be suportive for chinese exports. I would highly doubt that China is interested in turning the tide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1701336233983521202)  2023-09-11T20:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@lisaabramowicz1 Or even both monetary tightening and Oil squeezing budgets at the same time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1701643876623135195)  2023-09-12T17:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@VincentDeluard Good point. Do you think it is prudent to position for capital appreciation via falling real rates from now on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1704615145824026761)  2023-09-20T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@NationsWealth @VincentDeluard Long dated TIPS cover the rising credit risk and stubborn inflation at the same time. Not a bad risk-reward in my view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1704754263396585948)  2023-09-21T07:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@CommodityStalk1 The worlds energy autocrats just capitulated on oil prices I think it is very hard for bond yields to rally again in this environment. Especially with kind of hungry pension funds on the sidelines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1732494477229469714)  2023-12-06T20:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ProfessorWerner What do you think about @crossbordercaps approach which is more liquidity (balance sheet capacity) focused"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1740101274329313490)  2023-12-27T20:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@chigrl A lot of hot air over the Red Sea . Oil just jumped 15% in [--] minutes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742937240375075294)  2024-01-04T15:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@panpalobar Seems like $tip is starting to consolidate above a key level. Gold could follow through"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1753132595016032516)  2024-02-01T19:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Callum_Thomas Yeah but short Germany 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1756769948901257543)  2024-02-11T19:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@AlessioUrban The keypoint is if folks have locked in lower mortgage yields than actual rent/interest rates. The factor which is inflation protectionary in real estate is long term fixed mortgage rates and rising interest rate preventing more construction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1758840274548125825)  2024-02-17T13:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Mexico-China interconnection eases Panama Canal disruptions and US-Energy Bonanza eases Suez impact. It is actually no too bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1762194100407648739)  2024-02-26T19:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@FelipeCamposPC Se pens tambin que el petrleo va subir hasta las nubes por que el occidente se despega de Rusia. No pas. Los productos Chinos toman el desvo por Mexico. Por eso el MXN es tan fuerte. El riesgo es que Trump acabar con la entrada de productos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1768241099926126937)  2024-03-14T11:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@afhguru @RaduTudor1970 Romania benefits on an exchange rate basis and EU capital inflows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1770461153430253835)  2024-03-20T14:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@VickyDavilaH Gente asquerosa hay en todo el mundo. Los problemas de Medelln son ms profundas de que atrae cantidad de pervertidora mundiales. Por que vienen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1775282199350366326)  2024-04-02T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MBjegovic Gold is just sniffing out more liquid fiat money ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1777652162060775626)  2024-04-09T10:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@MBjegovic The money supply already grew due to fiscal deficits. As well the labor supply grew due to out of control immigration. Which will keep core inflation cool. The FED does not directly care about commodities. Lower core inflation data would make QE visible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1777655890767700214)  2024-04-09T11:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@igorsushko What is Norways biggest export again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1778214820979867977)  2024-04-11T00:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@AlessioUrban Some people would say that capital markets are forward looking machines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1780542821444776217)  2024-04-17T10:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Geo_papic @johnauthers For the paste decades the Middle East took their leverage on oil for granted. R.I.P. oil leverage. Maybe even the Middle East is buying gold like crazy right now to hedge against out of control public balance sheets. I guess bonds are wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1781207715525615813)  2024-04-19T06:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Ronald_Sl Ja theoretisch richtig. Es reduziert aber den Cash Flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1785225164919079000)  2024-04-30T08:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Convertbond The unemployment rate is (still) low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1785321460472438879)  2024-04-30T14:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@SejrPedersen @MacroAlf Nordic countries population is very small in comparison to economic privileges such as potent companies and hydrocarbons (Norway). They are not comparable to core Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1786336090921590888)  2024-05-03T10:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DiegoFassnacht @tagesschau Weit ber der 10k Schallmauer. Weit vor zb China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1787513399347147133)  2024-05-06T16:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@DiegoFassnacht In Panama wird stndig die sehr schlechte Qualitt von Dienstleistungen bemngelt. Das ist auch eine Art Inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1788093084254789996)  2024-05-08T06:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MichaelAArouet If pensions will not be monetized real estate is going up due to less bond issuance. Less bond issuance leads to lower rates which lead to higher real estate prices. State backed pensions and real estate are inversely correlated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1788818552482333179)  2024-05-10T06:29Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited @dampedspring Underlying economic conditions are strong for a small service oriented young and dynamic part of society. Supply for services could be very restricted. Will demand for services be fully elastic What happens to bond yields in times of capital oversupply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1796142611763286250)  2024-05-30T11:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@daily_romania @ImtiazMadmood Public workers like police officers are conditioned to support leftist policies and reject any right spectrum activities. The behavior of this police officer just reflects that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1796682480595951628)  2024-05-31T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mario_lochner Oder: Wann fliet dieses Geld aus floating rates in 2-jhrige US Treasury Bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1802037691174818035)  2024-06-15T17:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Carmen62100722 Schlecht fr die Saudis. Mittlerweile kann der Nahe Osten einpacken. Der Westen produziert selbst mehr l als die BRICS und pseudo BRICS zusammen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1802234394981122175)  2024-06-16T06:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hmeisler If the yield curve is moving downwards entirely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1810349474142933403)  2024-07-08T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Analystlearner The sell-off in Bunds was already the risk-On move. Folks sold off their insurance. If the EUR really gets buried everyone would like to have long term claims on Germany because currency wise these claims would rise in real worth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1810403469506842929)  2024-07-08T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Analystlearner Yes Demand for Bills is enormous due to the hugely inflated REPO machinery of French banks. Could be that higher long term yields would help as finance ministers are more inclined to issue short term. What happens if the long end becomes more attractive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1810406419340067308)  2024-07-08T20:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge The market has priced in a false trump narrative trade. Tarifs on China will reverberate via the bond market back to the US. Firstly Chinese goods will flood Europe cause deflation bring yields down and boomerang back to US bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1811061395628114321)  2024-07-10T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Some juicy liquidity for US treasury bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1811848130775711842)  2024-07-12T19:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis Fair point. Lets put it differently. Chinese are getting paid more currency units in a weaker currency. These currency units were devalued due to measures against deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813105993078936006)  2024-07-16T06:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis China version for sure not comparable. in quality input costs and fiscal environment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813108523162870188)  2024-07-16T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HooSergey @DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis You guys are talking about EVs. Pretty much every unsophisticated startup can produce an EV. Depends just on the costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813112390147359091)  2024-07-16T07:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DoggyDog1208 @HooSergey @michaelxpettis Yes tariffs. After Trump leaves Chinese products in front of the door Chinese ports will be full of unsold goods begging to enter the European market. Europe will harvest via tariffs the fruits of Chinese communist hardship and abusement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813115429662929253)  2024-07-16T07:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HooSergey @DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis Seems like bots are really cheap as well in China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813116616785187206)  2024-07-16T07:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KinshasaKimodo @Callum_Thomas I would argue that there will be rather a currency devaluation war than a tariffs war. If Trump overshoots on tariffs the EU as the biggest single market in the world will have all cards on the table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1813173451831550423)  2024-07-16T11:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@panpalobar As well as deflationary pressures which could intensify quicker than interest rates are allowed to fall by inflation biased CBs. This is generally not good for PMs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1814639463240204593)  2024-07-20T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IvanTheK What happened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1814727274006295012)  2024-07-20T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@crossbordercap It looks like term premia are frontrunning economic downturns and upswings by about [--] months. Do you have any thoughts on that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1821532367837659403)  2024-08-08T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@levenson_david @AndreasSteno How could you know that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1823796527577620776)  2024-08-14T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Citrini7 Today the YC inverted more on positive data. I think he mentioned the word noise in this context today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1824131977207054548)  2024-08-15T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited This highlights the shit from inflation data dependence to growth data dependence. A classic 60/40 setup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1824132882681790872)  2024-08-15T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@texasrunnerDFW @FedGuy12 I would say if stagflation broadens throughout the whole economy the housing market enters in recession. A sound little recession accompanied by low commodity prices and lower rates would actually be net positive for real estate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1825538044256256075)  2024-08-19T14:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Geo_papic @profplum99 It means that the average US-consumer which is eligible for mortgages etc. is consuming less on average"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1826350846755700961)  2024-08-21T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Geo_papic @profplum99 You are very smart. Im just curious why declining retail sales per capita is not a indicator for a stressed consumer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1826353319906083270)  2024-08-21T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Schuldensuehner One has to keep in mind that due to demographics the official unemployment rate will not be rising that easily"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1829438863405723833)  2024-08-30T08:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@levenson_david They need to get engaged in a currency devaluation competition ASAP. As well they need -50BP to force out the huge accumulation of savings out into investments. There is a policy error in the making"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1829467152845316100)  2024-08-30T10:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon Hedging against easing global tensions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1829509431572463947)  2024-08-30T13:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TechCharts I guess we are done because German 10y mortgage rates did not have a pullback at all. German banks mortgage rates kept falling in the meantime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1831053111152255242)  2024-09-03T19:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@fejau_inc Actually this chart is probably more important than the Jobs report"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1832124752217174332)  2024-09-06T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@jimcramer Perfect day to sell bonds and extend equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1832158342137209190)  2024-09-06T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TihoBrkan Hikes were more aggressive than usual as well debt was more shielded against hikes. The refinancing which ist the biggest chunk of global debt was only slightly affected. Now the financing part normalized so did inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1832338516082086125)  2024-09-07T08:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NickTimiraos Probably the FED would not like to recognize an error by cutting [--] this month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1832346603971072337)  2024-09-07T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TalkMarkets Volkswagen: Hold my beer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1832949264969838672)  2024-09-09T01:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AyeshaTariq US wants/wanted Chinese goods before tariffs could loom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1833593188533322052)  2024-09-10T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@prosperousguy I guess it is reserved for Volkswagen 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1834353471815921821)  2024-09-12T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@feederobot @Betta_call_saul Actually Citadel owns a ton of puts against some calls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1834392344117817495)  2024-09-13T00:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SanCompounding Yes as I said waymo is experimenting and the business is not profitable atm. As soon as google can scale it up in a profitable manner. Uber will be out and replaced by their own platform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1834599843177681377)  2024-09-13T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ReturnsJourney I like Ciena as a conservative AI play. Do you have an opinion on this business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1834709428534145530)  2024-09-13T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@gbrulte Uber is just enabling more cheap testing until profitability for waymo. Uber is a dead cat walking through a Haitian neighborhood 🤷🏻♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1835011420804522111)  2024-09-14T17:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PetramcoC They say eyeQ6 will collect even more via embedded generative AI. But waymo is turbocharging as well their database using Uber to roll out their robotaxi rides"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1835630437458194610)  2024-09-16T10:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Avalanche is inevitable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1835730158134669669)  2024-09-16T17:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mojo_flyin Perhaps they will buy intels stake in mobileye"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1837790776685670707)  2024-09-22T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mojo_flyin How is Qualcomm positioned in terms of government compliance I would guess that it is an issue in case of a takeover"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1837812941510303854)  2024-09-22T11:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited It is not raising inflation. It just prevents a deflationary shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1837937292905714088)  2024-09-22T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@michaelxpettis Didnt Beijing announce to be working on plans to handing out checks to the poorest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1839209353275978156)  2024-09-26T07:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Citrini7 As they can post bonds as collateral to get cash to buy the shit out of the equity market. That is quite a privilege. Short this market and you will get crushed by the iron fist of Super Mario Draghi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1839806037219488172)  2024-09-27T23:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MFHoz @EdwardGofsky For sure. And CPI index will come down 50% as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1841229274474278933)  2024-10-01T21:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JohnDoss1 @GZuckerman Good point. Taking out Iran per se is not the problem as their share already declined a lot. But if Iran goes crazy afterwards and purposely destroys other oil infrastructure in the golf that would be a big problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1841576797810446843)  2024-10-02T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JamieMcullough Heartbreaking for Tesla Fos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1841759688309748143)  2024-10-03T08:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JamieSaettele @dampedspring People are shorting that just because of liquidity to buy equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1844248209423728930)  2024-10-10T05:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@jb_equities Uber is rather a short at some point. It is redundant and easyly replaceable. Autonomous car services operate by license in specific cities and jurisdictions. Why involve Uber And if yes Uber will gain less than now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1844821054771921183)  2024-10-11T19:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AlessioUrban Hedging Trump. After the election short bond party could be over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1848381876068663728)  2024-10-21T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@countdraghula I do not agree. ATM it is just political volatility. Mortgage rates did not move up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1856467453024580038)  2024-11-12T22:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@chigrl @ed_fin Something cyclical is going on. Korean equities surged as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1858569471428096261)  2024-11-18T17:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Brad_Setser Fair enough. All in all and on a net basis the effects may be overstated by the mainstream media. Furthermore the US is the worlds technological leader in AI and will export this technology as it broadens out. Tariffs on imports arent that urgent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1859366295298507274)  2024-11-20T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Brad_Setser As AI broadens out the worlds energy demand will increase as well. The US will produce and export more energy as well. Trade balance shouldnt be a problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1859367504147026030)  2024-11-20T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChristianJog @Brad_Setser Mercedes and BMW are exporting 2/3 of their production in the US (mostly SUVs). I partly agree that production ist divided in 1/3 in a tripolar world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1859588674410676711)  2024-11-21T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno @BobEUnlimited At these levels of deficits the FED has no other choice than to accept higher inflation. 2% requires budget cuts which will definitely hurt at first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1861910977706447260)  2024-11-27T23:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@jnordvig Afterwards Mr. Trump ca publicly celebrate his victory. I scared the shit out of these BRICS countries my efforts made them stick to the dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1863219365786583062)  2024-12-01T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JeffreyKleintop Mostly Commodity producing countries and EMs saw increases in their inflation rate due to FX and trade balances. DMs are actually trending down MoM. YoY there are some base effects baked in the cake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1863333014643564580)  2024-12-01T21:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MisterSpread @SantiagoAuFund Interesting setup for Korean equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1864260501812674599)  2024-12-04T10:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GitaGopinath In the end it all comes down to interest rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1865493792356253958)  2024-12-07T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AlessioTMAD @inversemds Cheap Chinese products flooding into Europe (redirected due to tariffs) will really be bearish for EU Bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1866942992273063999)  2024-12-11T20:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CyberDog2 Probably next week institutions will stay on hold to keep dumping the rebound later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1867683102644219988)  2024-12-13T21:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @JackFarley96 The Long Ende will look through this. Practically this was a rise in the inflation target and a future change in the markets perception of the definition of weak data and the FEDs reaction function. More than [--] cuts in [----] are highly probable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1869704602289164568)  2024-12-19T11:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @JackFarley96 The market cannot discard the risk of more cuts. - very bullish equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1869704743209349486)  2024-12-19T11:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@QuipusCapital I see theres definitely value and chunky dividends. What do you think about $XP to play the macro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1869862265513750663)  2024-12-19T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NGurushina It is a Commodity Story. Key commodities are beaten down which erodes the substance of taxation etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1869910401766297778)  2024-12-20T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@_t1capital @Citrini7 Why not $TDW Offshore can take lower prices than frackers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1870625080713318792)  2024-12-22T00:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@donnelly_brent Brazil 30y bonds EU mid caps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1870630446759051696)  2024-12-22T00:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Colombian Peso seems pretty much manipulated. The government needs monetary easing to ramp un the economy before elections. A stronger peso makes it easier for the central bank. COP should probably trade around [-----] on the dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1870911763069477018)  2024-12-22T19:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@AndreasSteno = Longe equities + accumulating bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1871201646920990733)  2024-12-23T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@fcfinvest Long $XBI instead has more juice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1871212339602858096)  2024-12-23T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@marcfriedrich7 Regulation is practically like very high tariffs. Remarkably well said by madame Lagarde in her latest FT interview. https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576i=1000681366762 https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576i=1000681366762"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1872016470257160487)  2024-12-25T20:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NickTimiraos Goods inflation is probably not even in danger to rise. It is Services. So why should the FED be bothered by tariffs Deporting people is simply utopic so services should be fine. Maybe your article is helping to push through exaggerated expectations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1872771173098111458)  2024-12-27T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EauDeMacro Same psychology like in bubbles - rates cannot fall. Pretty amazing environment to scale in shorting long end rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1872953894051139968)  2024-12-28T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EauDeMacro Valuation wise bonds are bombed out like equities in crashes. Why should positive carry bother someone Dividend stocks in bottoms look the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1872966142597509213)  2024-12-28T11:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EauDeMacro Yes if it is a pure bond trade your arguments are totally valid. Recycling some equity gains into bonds is not a bad idea atm. Especially if equities keep rising in Q1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1872985462429893054)  2024-12-28T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Citrini7 Until then equities probably outperform. Just recycle that outperformance into bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1873149883160641904)  2024-12-28T23:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ericwallerstein The yield curve steepens dramatically within recessions as short end rates are cut aggressively. The yield curve behaved exactly as it is supposed to behave pricing stable growth: disinverting a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1873355327082832382)  2024-12-29T13:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@biancoresearch @ericwallerstein @Citrini7 Of course the market is saying a [--] BPs is not necessary if positioning at the long end was for recession risk. Market positioning was too extreme. FED took advantage of it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1873370320243138921)  2024-12-29T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BickerinBrattle @biancoresearch @ericwallerstein @Citrini7 This discussion shows how emotional bond markets can be. Maybe bond yields are just overshooting more often than people think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1873379107754701210)  2024-12-29T14:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@conksresearch Are bond yields at the moment in line with that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1873406431787188719)  2024-12-29T16:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Do they in Berlin know about auch as thing as AI capable datacenters Their energy policy is not really indicating that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1875312204339409302)  2025-01-03T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SamanthaLaDuc Most probably China would want to issue massively USD bonds before something like a plaza accord [---] could possibly happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1875638363841294678)  2025-01-04T20:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Expected issuance of USD bonds by China I dont know if it is a big thing but it could be competition to US treasury issuance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1876202089766162441)  2025-01-06T09:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroAlf Issue floating debt and buy the 30y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1876762452987150695)  2025-01-07T22:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MichaelMOTTCM Again Tail risk of Germanys Parlament becoming too fragmented to govern"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1877478142731788481)  2025-01-09T22:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited [---] $ average price of a night at NYC hotels in a currency which is brutally strong. 7%+ mortgage rate in strong dollars. US at any price Maybe Howard Marks sees US exceptionalism in bubble territory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1878067816357646343)  2025-01-11T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GaryHaubold @FedGuy12 Breakevens moved far less than nominal bond yields. Isnt it just totally normalTIPS measured breakevens are being dragged up simply by more attractive real yields It creates more demand for TIPS to lock in these real yields"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1878124553332732049)  2025-01-11T16:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GaryHaubold @FedGuy12 At least for TIPS measured inflation expectations it is not totally clear if they are rising because of actual expectations of future inflation. In hold to maturity considerations it could just come down to locking in high cash flows in real terms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1878128678703395323)  2025-01-11T17:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@biancoresearch Locking in high real yields is not necessarily an expression of inflation expectations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1878826151810158748)  2025-01-13T15:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DarioCpx German economic growth does only matter for the accounting currency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1880187443577778267)  2025-01-17T09:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno This can only mean if equities break so breaks the Economy. Wealth effect at its Peak"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1882137343991464146)  2025-01-22T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FinanceLancelot Yield curve What are you talking about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1882192291672285491)  2025-01-22T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FinanceLancelot Why Without hitting USD/JPY with the manipulation hammer nothing happens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1882739302012227969)  2025-01-24T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Citrini7 The same in the end. But way quicker. Yields up S&P down and at some point dollar down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1885798962151444628)  2025-02-01T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Anyways europe will face heavy deflationary forces out of this. Maybe bond yields will fall even more as the currency"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1885942788782473522)  2025-02-02T06:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@biancoresearch Would be extremely bullish for equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1887261059926438212)  2025-02-05T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@panpalobar Very sharp I can see what you mean. Apteciate it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1889474199774752867)  2025-02-12T00:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@fcfinvest Bullish Bond yields"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1900182197467799749)  2025-03-13T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TopTrading500 Long bonds mit einer Prise short equities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1905931608831484217)  2025-03-29T10:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MBjegovic A feasable explanation could be EM devaluation driven selling of USTs to stabilize the currency mixed with some kind of hedge selling due to rising risk on sentiment. Buying opportunity in fixed income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1909588027870937416)  2025-04-08T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MBjegovic What if the private sector has this higher financing needs & do central banks still exist QE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1909591470652244213)  2025-04-08T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited Equities are loosing in FX terms but not enough. Probably [----] S&P @ EUR/USD [----] would be fair at this point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1910787324759199925)  2025-04-11T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AlessioTMAD use your brain to buy euros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1914206465734160699)  2025-04-21T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@John_Stepek It could be a turnaround story like Greece in terms of fiscal deficits and growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1915088593472627094)  2025-04-23T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Sorenthek @EFbullion RMB is a joke. Would rather buy Hellenic bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1915446781258694793)  2025-04-24T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PrimeministerGR @NicusorDanRO Greece Romnia and Poland will combine perfectly to increase prosperity in the whole flank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1924419343183401051)  2025-05-19T10:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DrJStrategy Greece 30y is @ 42%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1924932963898126589)  2025-05-20T20:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited Novo did already feel the heat. SAP Siemens Banco Santander are probably not in the best position to be in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1930631656815067245)  2025-06-05T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EuroBriefing It doesnt have to win. The trade war itself is a win for EU bond markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1931974217186115734)  2025-06-09T07:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@themarketsniper EU bonds: currency appreciates - forces yields down. (Or ofrecen the ECB to bring them down) Bond duration is generating capital gains in an appreciating currency + interest payments. Who needs gold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1938197632234754366)  2025-06-26T11:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FLawgomud @ulrichspeck In detail I dont know it but Siemens seems to be the world leader in this field. The result will be productivity gains in manufacturing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1938945423911329886)  2025-06-28T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@The_Utility_Co @FLawgomud @ulrichspeck China has a big problem: it lacks a well developed pension system. China never achieved the stage of a consumer society. It relentlessly fought for market share in manufacturing by relentlessly keeping wage costs low. They exported deflation to the west"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1939218286249427145)  2025-06-29T07:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@fcfinvest Very feasible. Which would also increase odds for FED rate cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1939667659504705923)  2025-06-30T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroJason Yes that same process is well documented in Poland within the last decade. Temporarily remigration will be slowed down by the hardship that will caused by brings by down the budget deficit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1939802367924326567)  2025-06-30T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroJason es that same process is well documented in Poland within the last decade. Temporarily remigration will be slowed down by the hardship that will be caused by addressing the budget deficit. https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-risks-public-pushback-cut-eu-highest-deficit-bolojan/ https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-risks-public-pushback-cut-eu-highest-deficit-bolojan/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1939803121661698141)  2025-06-30T21:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HustleBitch_ Bobby the Builder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1943625833748246933)  2025-07-11T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@donnelly_brent Metals & USD/JPY rally. Why is the Euro (still) not playing ball"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1943761968105497012)  2025-07-11T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MichaelAArouet Deflation incoming. Euro would go up intrinsically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1944316220247093652)  2025-07-13T08:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Schuldensuehner That was partly a function of front running the upcoming tariffs. Now the negative double whammy is underway: tariffs + high inventories"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1944362759707037824)  2025-07-13T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Didnt the long end last week price a dovish tariff outcome for Europe Risik on & more growth (bunds)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1944495399315644718)  2025-07-13T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lisaabramowicz1 Romnia actually is doing hard austerity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1944859736907846070)  2025-07-14T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Lately the dollar rises because of rising recession fears"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1945489946174779730)  2025-07-16T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@fcfinvest Maybe BTC should rather be compared to mortgages and home prices. Due to the lack of accessibility of home ownership especially people below [--] are turning to BTC. I do not see the parallel to fiat. The alternative to BTC is no the checking account"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1945778167358124349)  2025-07-17T09:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Quite the opposite. The outcome is even softer as the market has been pricing in since march. Global bonds should rally on this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1947032302632026208)  2025-07-20T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LogicalThesis In consumer staples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1947414872360423668)  2025-07-21T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VKMacro @MacroAlf Shouldnt dollar weakness due to fiscal dominance feed into a flatter curve in Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1948297072169365795)  2025-07-24T08:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CommodityStalk1 Bond yields are very rich at this point. Until growth is holding fairly up any inch lower in yields could stabilize and fuel equities. Tricky times"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1948548697773711693)  2025-07-25T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks The more interesting question might be: What will happen to the dollar after PCE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1950268454038347885)  2025-07-29T18:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@tom_nuttall In effect this sums up like the Hartz reforms of Schroeder. Welfare keeps frozen and meanwhile economic growth will be boosted. This will drag human capital out of the welfare system into the open sea of the labor market. Why should that be bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1950557026444038384)  2025-07-30T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheStalwart Like treasuries vs. frontier market corporate junk bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1951092330628522287)  2025-08-01T01:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dlacalle_IA It is practically only the spread between New York and London that normalized until now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1951201320972509497)  2025-08-01T08:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheStalwart @bespokeinvest This is the kind of article like New York Times [----] which people will look for in [--] years and say: Look they couldnt even imagine how badly these monopolistic mega tech stocks will implode realizing that AI became a typ of infrastructure like electricity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1951334881075617871)  2025-08-01T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Uber bullish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1951339343311937725)  2025-08-01T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@nickgiva1 When was the last time you were bullish on duration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1951361582577135852)  2025-08-01T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DannyDayan5 Since bills are very close to currency in their nature it just lowers the dollar and big cap rises mechanically"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1953141951055671305)  2025-08-06T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@fcfinvest They may just consume more chicken. $TSN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1953397943156785596)  2025-08-07T10:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MBjegovic @DannyDayan5 The tariff related increase in PPI should be mostly a one off hike right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1955995940696789281)  2025-08-14T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@donnelly_brent EUR is up especially against commodity currencies. Strange the bonds are still a bit mute. Why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1957894491412586831)  2025-08-19T19:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NickTimiraos @grok what is Lagarde talking about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1959568660982374773)  2025-08-24T10:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Brazil & Guyana are coming online with [---] mbd etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1965007313527521335)  2025-09-08T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LukeGromen Sounds like Jim Cramer today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1976069091254468686)  2025-10-08T23:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@brave_romania Hungary has BMW now on top of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1976391913432608866)  2025-10-09T20:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@christankerfund How does it play out for $DHT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1977639489448321225)  2025-10-13T07:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@visegrad24 For sure about the closing of mining sites in Indonesia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1977799570009563189)  2025-10-13T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroAlf So how do they achieve public debt levels of this size"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1891402428236398998)  2025-02-17T08:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SamanthaLaDuc @GraphCall Thats very unlikely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1892527286378733598)  2025-02-20T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DougKass There is a huge put bias in $IWD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1952677633554059567)  2025-08-05T10:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Look at for example Hochtief FriedrichVorwerk & EU Banks. The market is all in. Private Equity is all in as well with a ton of new products in that space. Practically everywhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1955191800404091003)  2025-08-12T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Energy_Tidbits @conocophillips Are markets pricing the right now or are markets forward looking machines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1978381815418097938)  2025-10-15T08:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@QuipusCapital Fixed income instruments are largely funded in other currencies. For example Spanish banks of Japanese funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1979320429454991386)  2025-10-17T22:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Gold & BTC to bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/hydrocarbro/status/1980654396464853180)  2025-10-21T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@hydrocarbro Avatar @hydrocarbro HQM

HQM posts on X about inflation, china, tariffs, debt the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [---] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [---] +215%
  • [--] Month [-----] -77%
  • [--] Months [------] +825%
  • [--] Year [------] +140%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

  • [--] Months [--] -18%
  • [--] Year [--] -29%

Followers: [-------] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Week [---] +0.97%
  • [--] Month [---] -1.40%
  • [--] Months [---] -0.48%
  • [--] Year [---] +60%

CreatorRank: undefined #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries currencies stocks automotive brands cryptocurrencies technology brands us election travel destinations formula 1

Social topic influence inflation, china, tariffs, debt, ai, guyana, countries, $tip, uber, bullish

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @andreassteno @kacperpkch @citrini7 @bobeunlimited @jackfarley96 @michaelxpettis @robinjbrooks @macroalf @zerohedge @mbjegovic @geopapic @doggydog1208 @nicktimiraos @bradsetser @fcfinvest @blacklioncta @donnellybrent @biancoresearch @samanthaladuc @santiagoaufund

Top assets mentioned Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) General Mills, Inc. (GIS) Hershey Co (HSY) dHedge DAO (DHT) Bancolombia S.A. (CIB) Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG) Cousins Properties Inc. (CUZ) Premia (PREMIA) CITADEL (CITADEL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Avalanche (AVAX) QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Xphere (XP) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) RAMP (RAMP) BUBBLES (BUBBLES) Gains (GAINS) Banco Santander S.A. (SAN)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@RobinBrooksIIF The Colombian Peso rallied even harder"
X Link 2023-01-25T13:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@MartyChargin $GIS seems to be positively correlated to grain prices. Same could be true for $HSY and sugar prices (which kind of struggle to come down). Any thoughts on that"
X Link 2023-05-19T17:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MartyChargin 😂 yeah it trades like an AI tech stock. All these special situation multiples are still priced in. Shorts in both are going fine so far the long pairtrade $TSN stands stable. Lower input costs and a switch from carbs to proteins could support the thesis"
X Link 2023-05-19T18:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MacroAlf In some assets a stagflation is already overpriced in: $GIS $HSY sugar futures etc"
X Link 2023-05-23T23:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheImpaler83 @SpeakerMcCarthy @POTUS What counts for markets is liquidity. It is at a tipping point"
X Link 2023-05-25T23:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@SantiagoAuFund Long $TSN 🙃"
X Link 2023-06-07T07:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jessefelder Long dated calls on $TIP 🧐"
X Link 2023-06-21T19:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@options_insight What about TIPS Do long dated calls on $TIP look attractive to you"
X Link 2023-06-28T13:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@julianHjessop So economica contraction is excellent"
X Link 2023-06-29T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@eliant_capital Double top in rates & Double dip in equities"
X Link 2023-06-30T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MercuriEX @eliant_capital If it wen back down the reasons for that would for sure drag down equities as well"
X Link 2023-06-30T02:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DoubleWideCap @chevychasinrips Or it follows DAX and Nikkei"
X Link 2023-07-07T21:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Derivatives Long $TIP instead of $TLT"
X Link 2023-07-12T01:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Food inflation is really a big issue in EM CPI baskets. The reaction function focuses a lot more on food. If we will see a rebound in grains and the dollar that could bode quite negative for EM bonds"
X Link 2023-07-25T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Dcpcooks Is it plausible that $TIP outperforms $IEF in such a case Real duration outperforming nominal duration"
X Link 2023-07-31T17:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DiegoFassnacht 5% Zins(kosten) bedeutet hhere Inflation bzw in Kombination mit der demographischen Situation eher Stagflation"
X Link 2023-08-27T06:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet Real assets outperform only in times of systematic policy errors"
X Link 2023-09-02T10:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@SantiagoAuFund Seriously It has some good elements but all in all it is just propaganda"
X Link 2023-09-04T00:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PaolaGuscoffIIF Would it be wise for the banco de la republica to ease in october"
X Link 2023-09-07T15:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@zerohedge Maybe not. Mexican exports need to stay cheap"
X Link 2023-09-10T23:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BlacklionCTA A risk positive Yen day draging down the USD in several currency pairs"
X Link 2023-09-11T12:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno A stronger CNY will not be suportive for chinese exports. I would highly doubt that China is interested in turning the tide"
X Link 2023-09-11T20:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@lisaabramowicz1 Or even both monetary tightening and Oil squeezing budgets at the same time"
X Link 2023-09-12T17:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@VincentDeluard Good point. Do you think it is prudent to position for capital appreciation via falling real rates from now on"
X Link 2023-09-20T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@NationsWealth @VincentDeluard Long dated TIPS cover the rising credit risk and stubborn inflation at the same time. Not a bad risk-reward in my view"
X Link 2023-09-21T07:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@CommodityStalk1 The worlds energy autocrats just capitulated on oil prices I think it is very hard for bond yields to rally again in this environment. Especially with kind of hungry pension funds on the sidelines"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@ProfessorWerner What do you think about @crossbordercaps approach which is more liquidity (balance sheet capacity) focused"
X Link 2023-12-27T20:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@chigrl A lot of hot air over the Red Sea . Oil just jumped 15% in [--] minutes"
X Link 2024-01-04T15:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@panpalobar Seems like $tip is starting to consolidate above a key level. Gold could follow through"
X Link 2024-02-01T19:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Callum_Thomas Yeah but short Germany 😅"
X Link 2024-02-11T19:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlessioUrban The keypoint is if folks have locked in lower mortgage yields than actual rent/interest rates. The factor which is inflation protectionary in real estate is long term fixed mortgage rates and rising interest rate preventing more construction"
X Link 2024-02-17T13:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Mexico-China interconnection eases Panama Canal disruptions and US-Energy Bonanza eases Suez impact. It is actually no too bad"
X Link 2024-02-26T19:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@FelipeCamposPC Se pens tambin que el petrleo va subir hasta las nubes por que el occidente se despega de Rusia. No pas. Los productos Chinos toman el desvo por Mexico. Por eso el MXN es tan fuerte. El riesgo es que Trump acabar con la entrada de productos"
X Link 2024-03-14T11:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@afhguru @RaduTudor1970 Romania benefits on an exchange rate basis and EU capital inflows"
X Link 2024-03-20T14:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@VickyDavilaH Gente asquerosa hay en todo el mundo. Los problemas de Medelln son ms profundas de que atrae cantidad de pervertidora mundiales. Por que vienen"
X Link 2024-04-02T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MBjegovic Gold is just sniffing out more liquid fiat money ahead"
X Link 2024-04-09T10:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MBjegovic The money supply already grew due to fiscal deficits. As well the labor supply grew due to out of control immigration. Which will keep core inflation cool. The FED does not directly care about commodities. Lower core inflation data would make QE visible"
X Link 2024-04-09T11:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@igorsushko What is Norways biggest export again"
X Link 2024-04-11T00:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlessioUrban Some people would say that capital markets are forward looking machines"
X Link 2024-04-17T10:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Geo_papic @johnauthers For the paste decades the Middle East took their leverage on oil for granted. R.I.P. oil leverage. Maybe even the Middle East is buying gold like crazy right now to hedge against out of control public balance sheets. I guess bonds are wrong"
X Link 2024-04-19T06:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Ronald_Sl Ja theoretisch richtig. Es reduziert aber den Cash Flow"
X Link 2024-04-30T08:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Convertbond The unemployment rate is (still) low"
X Link 2024-04-30T14:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@SejrPedersen @MacroAlf Nordic countries population is very small in comparison to economic privileges such as potent companies and hydrocarbons (Norway). They are not comparable to core Europe"
X Link 2024-05-03T10:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DiegoFassnacht @tagesschau Weit ber der 10k Schallmauer. Weit vor zb China"
X Link 2024-05-06T16:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DiegoFassnacht In Panama wird stndig die sehr schlechte Qualitt von Dienstleistungen bemngelt. Das ist auch eine Art Inflation"
X Link 2024-05-08T06:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet If pensions will not be monetized real estate is going up due to less bond issuance. Less bond issuance leads to lower rates which lead to higher real estate prices. State backed pensions and real estate are inversely correlated"
X Link 2024-05-10T06:29Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited @dampedspring Underlying economic conditions are strong for a small service oriented young and dynamic part of society. Supply for services could be very restricted. Will demand for services be fully elastic What happens to bond yields in times of capital oversupply"
X Link 2024-05-30T11:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@daily_romania @ImtiazMadmood Public workers like police officers are conditioned to support leftist policies and reject any right spectrum activities. The behavior of this police officer just reflects that"
X Link 2024-05-31T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@mario_lochner Oder: Wann fliet dieses Geld aus floating rates in 2-jhrige US Treasury Bonds"
X Link 2024-06-15T17:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Carmen62100722 Schlecht fr die Saudis. Mittlerweile kann der Nahe Osten einpacken. Der Westen produziert selbst mehr l als die BRICS und pseudo BRICS zusammen"
X Link 2024-06-16T06:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@hmeisler If the yield curve is moving downwards entirely"
X Link 2024-07-08T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Analystlearner The sell-off in Bunds was already the risk-On move. Folks sold off their insurance. If the EUR really gets buried everyone would like to have long term claims on Germany because currency wise these claims would rise in real worth"
X Link 2024-07-08T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Analystlearner Yes Demand for Bills is enormous due to the hugely inflated REPO machinery of French banks. Could be that higher long term yields would help as finance ministers are more inclined to issue short term. What happens if the long end becomes more attractive"
X Link 2024-07-08T20:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@zerohedge The market has priced in a false trump narrative trade. Tarifs on China will reverberate via the bond market back to the US. Firstly Chinese goods will flood Europe cause deflation bring yields down and boomerang back to US bonds"
X Link 2024-07-10T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zerohedge Some juicy liquidity for US treasury bonds"
X Link 2024-07-12T19:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis Fair point. Lets put it differently. Chinese are getting paid more currency units in a weaker currency. These currency units were devalued due to measures against deflation"
X Link 2024-07-16T06:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis China version for sure not comparable. in quality input costs and fiscal environment"
X Link 2024-07-16T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@HooSergey @DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis You guys are talking about EVs. Pretty much every unsophisticated startup can produce an EV. Depends just on the costs"
X Link 2024-07-16T07:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DoggyDog1208 @HooSergey @michaelxpettis Yes tariffs. After Trump leaves Chinese products in front of the door Chinese ports will be full of unsold goods begging to enter the European market. Europe will harvest via tariffs the fruits of Chinese communist hardship and abusement"
X Link 2024-07-16T07:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@HooSergey @DoggyDog1208 @michaelxpettis Seems like bots are really cheap as well in China"
X Link 2024-07-16T07:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@KinshasaKimodo @Callum_Thomas I would argue that there will be rather a currency devaluation war than a tariffs war. If Trump overshoots on tariffs the EU as the biggest single market in the world will have all cards on the table"
X Link 2024-07-16T11:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@panpalobar As well as deflationary pressures which could intensify quicker than interest rates are allowed to fall by inflation biased CBs. This is generally not good for PMs"
X Link 2024-07-20T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@IvanTheK What happened"
X Link 2024-07-20T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@crossbordercap It looks like term premia are frontrunning economic downturns and upswings by about [--] months. Do you have any thoughts on that"
X Link 2024-08-08T13:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@levenson_david @AndreasSteno How could you know that"
X Link 2024-08-14T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Citrini7 Today the YC inverted more on positive data. I think he mentioned the word noise in this context today"
X Link 2024-08-15T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited This highlights the shit from inflation data dependence to growth data dependence. A classic 60/40 setup"
X Link 2024-08-15T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@texasrunnerDFW @FedGuy12 I would say if stagflation broadens throughout the whole economy the housing market enters in recession. A sound little recession accompanied by low commodity prices and lower rates would actually be net positive for real estate"
X Link 2024-08-19T14:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Geo_papic @profplum99 It means that the average US-consumer which is eligible for mortgages etc. is consuming less on average"
X Link 2024-08-21T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Geo_papic @profplum99 You are very smart. Im just curious why declining retail sales per capita is not a indicator for a stressed consumer"
X Link 2024-08-21T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Schuldensuehner One has to keep in mind that due to demographics the official unemployment rate will not be rising that easily"
X Link 2024-08-30T08:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@levenson_david They need to get engaged in a currency devaluation competition ASAP. As well they need -50BP to force out the huge accumulation of savings out into investments. There is a policy error in the making"
X Link 2024-08-30T10:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon Hedging against easing global tensions"
X Link 2024-08-30T13:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TechCharts I guess we are done because German 10y mortgage rates did not have a pullback at all. German banks mortgage rates kept falling in the meantime"
X Link 2024-09-03T19:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@fejau_inc Actually this chart is probably more important than the Jobs report"
X Link 2024-09-06T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@jimcramer Perfect day to sell bonds and extend equities"
X Link 2024-09-06T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TihoBrkan Hikes were more aggressive than usual as well debt was more shielded against hikes. The refinancing which ist the biggest chunk of global debt was only slightly affected. Now the financing part normalized so did inflation"
X Link 2024-09-07T08:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@NickTimiraos Probably the FED would not like to recognize an error by cutting [--] this month"
X Link 2024-09-07T09:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TalkMarkets Volkswagen: Hold my beer"
X Link 2024-09-09T01:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AyeshaTariq US wants/wanted Chinese goods before tariffs could loom"
X Link 2024-09-10T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@prosperousguy I guess it is reserved for Volkswagen 😅"
X Link 2024-09-12T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@feederobot @Betta_call_saul Actually Citadel owns a ton of puts against some calls"
X Link 2024-09-13T00:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@SanCompounding Yes as I said waymo is experimenting and the business is not profitable atm. As soon as google can scale it up in a profitable manner. Uber will be out and replaced by their own platform"
X Link 2024-09-13T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@ReturnsJourney I like Ciena as a conservative AI play. Do you have an opinion on this business"
X Link 2024-09-13T21:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@gbrulte Uber is just enabling more cheap testing until profitability for waymo. Uber is a dead cat walking through a Haitian neighborhood 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2024-09-14T17:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@PetramcoC They say eyeQ6 will collect even more via embedded generative AI. But waymo is turbocharging as well their database using Uber to roll out their robotaxi rides"
X Link 2024-09-16T10:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@zerohedge Avalanche is inevitable"
X Link 2024-09-16T17:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mojo_flyin Perhaps they will buy intels stake in mobileye"
X Link 2024-09-22T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mojo_flyin How is Qualcomm positioned in terms of government compliance I would guess that it is an issue in case of a takeover"
X Link 2024-09-22T11:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited It is not raising inflation. It just prevents a deflationary shock"
X Link 2024-09-22T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@michaelxpettis Didnt Beijing announce to be working on plans to handing out checks to the poorest"
X Link 2024-09-26T07:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Citrini7 As they can post bonds as collateral to get cash to buy the shit out of the equity market. That is quite a privilege. Short this market and you will get crushed by the iron fist of Super Mario Draghi"
X Link 2024-09-27T23:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MFHoz @EdwardGofsky For sure. And CPI index will come down 50% as well"
X Link 2024-10-01T21:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JohnDoss1 @GZuckerman Good point. Taking out Iran per se is not the problem as their share already declined a lot. But if Iran goes crazy afterwards and purposely destroys other oil infrastructure in the golf that would be a big problem"
X Link 2024-10-02T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@JamieMcullough Heartbreaking for Tesla Fos"
X Link 2024-10-03T08:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JamieSaettele @dampedspring People are shorting that just because of liquidity to buy equities"
X Link 2024-10-10T05:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jb_equities Uber is rather a short at some point. It is redundant and easyly replaceable. Autonomous car services operate by license in specific cities and jurisdictions. Why involve Uber And if yes Uber will gain less than now"
X Link 2024-10-11T19:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlessioUrban Hedging Trump. After the election short bond party could be over"
X Link 2024-10-21T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@countdraghula I do not agree. ATM it is just political volatility. Mortgage rates did not move up"
X Link 2024-11-12T22:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@chigrl @ed_fin Something cyclical is going on. Korean equities surged as well"
X Link 2024-11-18T17:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Brad_Setser Fair enough. All in all and on a net basis the effects may be overstated by the mainstream media. Furthermore the US is the worlds technological leader in AI and will export this technology as it broadens out. Tariffs on imports arent that urgent"
X Link 2024-11-20T22:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Brad_Setser As AI broadens out the worlds energy demand will increase as well. The US will produce and export more energy as well. Trade balance shouldnt be a problem"
X Link 2024-11-20T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ChristianJog @Brad_Setser Mercedes and BMW are exporting 2/3 of their production in the US (mostly SUVs). I partly agree that production ist divided in 1/3 in a tripolar world"
X Link 2024-11-21T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno @BobEUnlimited At these levels of deficits the FED has no other choice than to accept higher inflation. 2% requires budget cuts which will definitely hurt at first"
X Link 2024-11-27T23:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@jnordvig Afterwards Mr. Trump ca publicly celebrate his victory. I scared the shit out of these BRICS countries my efforts made them stick to the dollar"
X Link 2024-12-01T13:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@JeffreyKleintop Mostly Commodity producing countries and EMs saw increases in their inflation rate due to FX and trade balances. DMs are actually trending down MoM. YoY there are some base effects baked in the cake"
X Link 2024-12-01T21:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MisterSpread @SantiagoAuFund Interesting setup for Korean equities"
X Link 2024-12-04T10:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GitaGopinath In the end it all comes down to interest rates"
X Link 2024-12-07T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AlessioTMAD @inversemds Cheap Chinese products flooding into Europe (redirected due to tariffs) will really be bearish for EU Bonds"
X Link 2024-12-11T20:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CyberDog2 Probably next week institutions will stay on hold to keep dumping the rebound later"
X Link 2024-12-13T21:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BlacklionCTA @JackFarley96 The Long Ende will look through this. Practically this was a rise in the inflation target and a future change in the markets perception of the definition of weak data and the FEDs reaction function. More than [--] cuts in [----] are highly probable"
X Link 2024-12-19T11:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BlacklionCTA @JackFarley96 The market cannot discard the risk of more cuts. - very bullish equities"
X Link 2024-12-19T11:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@QuipusCapital I see theres definitely value and chunky dividends. What do you think about $XP to play the macro"
X Link 2024-12-19T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@NGurushina It is a Commodity Story. Key commodities are beaten down which erodes the substance of taxation etc"
X Link 2024-12-20T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@_t1capital @Citrini7 Why not $TDW Offshore can take lower prices than frackers"
X Link 2024-12-22T00:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@donnelly_brent Brazil 30y bonds EU mid caps"
X Link 2024-12-22T00:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@robin_j_brooks Colombian Peso seems pretty much manipulated. The government needs monetary easing to ramp un the economy before elections. A stronger peso makes it easier for the central bank. COP should probably trade around [-----] on the dollar"
X Link 2024-12-22T19:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@AndreasSteno = Longe equities + accumulating bonds"
X Link 2024-12-23T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@fcfinvest Long $XBI instead has more juice"
X Link 2024-12-23T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@marcfriedrich7 Regulation is practically like very high tariffs. Remarkably well said by madame Lagarde in her latest FT interview. https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576i=1000681366762 https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576i=1000681366762"
X Link 2024-12-25T20:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@NickTimiraos Goods inflation is probably not even in danger to rise. It is Services. So why should the FED be bothered by tariffs Deporting people is simply utopic so services should be fine. Maybe your article is helping to push through exaggerated expectations"
X Link 2024-12-27T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EauDeMacro Same psychology like in bubbles - rates cannot fall. Pretty amazing environment to scale in shorting long end rates"
X Link 2024-12-28T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EauDeMacro Valuation wise bonds are bombed out like equities in crashes. Why should positive carry bother someone Dividend stocks in bottoms look the same"
X Link 2024-12-28T11:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@EauDeMacro Yes if it is a pure bond trade your arguments are totally valid. Recycling some equity gains into bonds is not a bad idea atm. Especially if equities keep rising in Q1"
X Link 2024-12-28T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Citrini7 Until then equities probably outperform. Just recycle that outperformance into bonds"
X Link 2024-12-28T23:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@ericwallerstein The yield curve steepens dramatically within recessions as short end rates are cut aggressively. The yield curve behaved exactly as it is supposed to behave pricing stable growth: disinverting a bit"
X Link 2024-12-29T13:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@biancoresearch @ericwallerstein @Citrini7 Of course the market is saying a [--] BPs is not necessary if positioning at the long end was for recession risk. Market positioning was too extreme. FED took advantage of it"
X Link 2024-12-29T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BickerinBrattle @biancoresearch @ericwallerstein @Citrini7 This discussion shows how emotional bond markets can be. Maybe bond yields are just overshooting more often than people think"
X Link 2024-12-29T14:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@conksresearch Are bond yields at the moment in line with that"
X Link 2024-12-29T16:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Do they in Berlin know about auch as thing as AI capable datacenters Their energy policy is not really indicating that"
X Link 2025-01-03T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SamanthaLaDuc Most probably China would want to issue massively USD bonds before something like a plaza accord [---] could possibly happen"
X Link 2025-01-04T20:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Expected issuance of USD bonds by China I dont know if it is a big thing but it could be competition to US treasury issuance"
X Link 2025-01-06T09:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MacroAlf Issue floating debt and buy the 30y"
X Link 2025-01-07T22:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MichaelMOTTCM Again Tail risk of Germanys Parlament becoming too fragmented to govern"
X Link 2025-01-09T22:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited [---] $ average price of a night at NYC hotels in a currency which is brutally strong. 7%+ mortgage rate in strong dollars. US at any price Maybe Howard Marks sees US exceptionalism in bubble territory"
X Link 2025-01-11T13:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@GaryHaubold @FedGuy12 Breakevens moved far less than nominal bond yields. Isnt it just totally normalTIPS measured breakevens are being dragged up simply by more attractive real yields It creates more demand for TIPS to lock in these real yields"
X Link 2025-01-11T16:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@GaryHaubold @FedGuy12 At least for TIPS measured inflation expectations it is not totally clear if they are rising because of actual expectations of future inflation. In hold to maturity considerations it could just come down to locking in high cash flows in real terms"
X Link 2025-01-11T17:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@biancoresearch Locking in high real yields is not necessarily an expression of inflation expectations"
X Link 2025-01-13T15:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DarioCpx German economic growth does only matter for the accounting currency"
X Link 2025-01-17T09:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno This can only mean if equities break so breaks the Economy. Wealth effect at its Peak"
X Link 2025-01-22T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@FinanceLancelot Yield curve What are you talking about"
X Link 2025-01-22T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@FinanceLancelot Why Without hitting USD/JPY with the manipulation hammer nothing happens"
X Link 2025-01-24T10:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Citrini7 The same in the end. But way quicker. Yields up S&P down and at some point dollar down"
X Link 2025-02-01T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@robin_j_brooks Anyways europe will face heavy deflationary forces out of this. Maybe bond yields will fall even more as the currency"
X Link 2025-02-02T06:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@biancoresearch Would be extremely bullish for equities"
X Link 2025-02-05T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@panpalobar Very sharp I can see what you mean. Apteciate it"
X Link 2025-02-12T00:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@fcfinvest Bullish Bond yields"
X Link 2025-03-13T13:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TopTrading500 Long bonds mit einer Prise short equities"
X Link 2025-03-29T10:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MBjegovic A feasable explanation could be EM devaluation driven selling of USTs to stabilize the currency mixed with some kind of hedge selling due to rising risk on sentiment. Buying opportunity in fixed income"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MBjegovic What if the private sector has this higher financing needs & do central banks still exist QE"
X Link 2025-04-08T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited Equities are loosing in FX terms but not enough. Probably [----] S&P @ EUR/USD [----] would be fair at this point"
X Link 2025-04-11T20:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AlessioTMAD use your brain to buy euros"
X Link 2025-04-21T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@John_Stepek It could be a turnaround story like Greece in terms of fiscal deficits and growth"
X Link 2025-04-23T17:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Sorenthek @EFbullion RMB is a joke. Would rather buy Hellenic bonds"
X Link 2025-04-24T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@PrimeministerGR @NicusorDanRO Greece Romnia and Poland will combine perfectly to increase prosperity in the whole flank"
X Link 2025-05-19T10:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DrJStrategy Greece 30y is @ 42%"
X Link 2025-05-20T20:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@BobEUnlimited Novo did already feel the heat. SAP Siemens Banco Santander are probably not in the best position to be in"
X Link 2025-06-05T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@EuroBriefing It doesnt have to win. The trade war itself is a win for EU bond markets"
X Link 2025-06-09T07:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@themarketsniper EU bonds: currency appreciates - forces yields down. (Or ofrecen the ECB to bring them down) Bond duration is generating capital gains in an appreciating currency + interest payments. Who needs gold"
X Link 2025-06-26T11:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@FLawgomud @ulrichspeck In detail I dont know it but Siemens seems to be the world leader in this field. The result will be productivity gains in manufacturing"
X Link 2025-06-28T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@The_Utility_Co @FLawgomud @ulrichspeck China has a big problem: it lacks a well developed pension system. China never achieved the stage of a consumer society. It relentlessly fought for market share in manufacturing by relentlessly keeping wage costs low. They exported deflation to the west"
X Link 2025-06-29T07:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@fcfinvest Very feasible. Which would also increase odds for FED rate cuts"
X Link 2025-06-30T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MacroJason Yes that same process is well documented in Poland within the last decade. Temporarily remigration will be slowed down by the hardship that will caused by brings by down the budget deficit"
X Link 2025-06-30T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MacroJason es that same process is well documented in Poland within the last decade. Temporarily remigration will be slowed down by the hardship that will be caused by addressing the budget deficit. https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-risks-public-pushback-cut-eu-highest-deficit-bolojan/ https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-risks-public-pushback-cut-eu-highest-deficit-bolojan/"
X Link 2025-06-30T21:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@HustleBitch_ Bobby the Builder"
X Link 2025-07-11T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@donnelly_brent Metals & USD/JPY rally. Why is the Euro (still) not playing ball"
X Link 2025-07-11T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MichaelAArouet Deflation incoming. Euro would go up intrinsically"
X Link 2025-07-13T08:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@Schuldensuehner That was partly a function of front running the upcoming tariffs. Now the negative double whammy is underway: tariffs + high inventories"
X Link 2025-07-13T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Didnt the long end last week price a dovish tariff outcome for Europe Risik on & more growth (bunds)"
X Link 2025-07-13T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@lisaabramowicz1 Romnia actually is doing hard austerity"
X Link 2025-07-14T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@robin_j_brooks Lately the dollar rises because of rising recession fears"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@fcfinvest Maybe BTC should rather be compared to mortgages and home prices. Due to the lack of accessibility of home ownership especially people below [--] are turning to BTC. I do not see the parallel to fiat. The alternative to BTC is no the checking account"
X Link 2025-07-17T09:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@robin_j_brooks Quite the opposite. The outcome is even softer as the market has been pricing in since march. Global bonds should rally on this"
X Link 2025-07-20T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LogicalThesis In consumer staples"
X Link 2025-07-21T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@VKMacro @MacroAlf Shouldnt dollar weakness due to fiscal dominance feed into a flatter curve in Europe"
X Link 2025-07-24T08:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CommodityStalk1 Bond yields are very rich at this point. Until growth is holding fairly up any inch lower in yields could stabilize and fuel equities. Tricky times"
X Link 2025-07-25T00:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@robin_j_brooks The more interesting question might be: What will happen to the dollar after PCE"
X Link 2025-07-29T18:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@tom_nuttall In effect this sums up like the Hartz reforms of Schroeder. Welfare keeps frozen and meanwhile economic growth will be boosted. This will drag human capital out of the welfare system into the open sea of the labor market. Why should that be bad"
X Link 2025-07-30T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@TheStalwart Like treasuries vs. frontier market corporate junk bonds"
X Link 2025-08-01T01:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@dlacalle_IA It is practically only the spread between New York and London that normalized until now"
X Link 2025-08-01T08:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@TheStalwart @bespokeinvest This is the kind of article like New York Times [----] which people will look for in [--] years and say: Look they couldnt even imagine how badly these monopolistic mega tech stocks will implode realizing that AI became a typ of infrastructure like electricity"
X Link 2025-08-01T17:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@zerohedge Uber bullish"
X Link 2025-08-01T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@nickgiva1 When was the last time you were bullish on duration"
X Link 2025-08-01T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@DannyDayan5 Since bills are very close to currency in their nature it just lowers the dollar and big cap rises mechanically"
X Link 2025-08-06T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@fcfinvest They may just consume more chicken. $TSN"
X Link 2025-08-07T10:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@MBjegovic @DannyDayan5 The tariff related increase in PPI should be mostly a one off hike right"
X Link 2025-08-14T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@donnelly_brent EUR is up especially against commodity currencies. Strange the bonds are still a bit mute. Why"
X Link 2025-08-19T19:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@NickTimiraos @grok what is Lagarde talking about"
X Link 2025-08-24T10:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Brazil & Guyana are coming online with [---] mbd etc"
X Link 2025-09-08T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@LukeGromen Sounds like Jim Cramer today"
X Link 2025-10-08T23:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@brave_romania Hungary has BMW now on top of that"
X Link 2025-10-09T20:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@christankerfund How does it play out for $DHT"
X Link 2025-10-13T07:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@visegrad24 For sure about the closing of mining sites in Indonesia"
X Link 2025-10-13T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@MacroAlf So how do they achieve public debt levels of this size"
X Link 2025-02-17T08:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@SamanthaLaDuc @GraphCall Thats very unlikely"
X Link 2025-02-20T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DougKass There is a huge put bias in $IWD"
X Link 2025-08-05T10:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Look at for example Hochtief FriedrichVorwerk & EU Banks. The market is all in. Private Equity is all in as well with a ton of new products in that space. Practically everywhere"
X Link 2025-08-12T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Energy_Tidbits @conocophillips Are markets pricing the right now or are markets forward looking machines"
X Link 2025-10-15T08:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@QuipusCapital Fixed income instruments are largely funded in other currencies. For example Spanish banks of Japanese funds"
X Link 2025-10-17T22:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@AndreasSteno Gold & BTC to bonds"
X Link 2025-10-21T15:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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@hydrocarbro
/creator/twitter::hydrocarbro