# ![@dgordo1818 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1941511868.png) @dgordo1818 dg

dg posts on X about $fico, asml, $asml, $efx the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +642%
- [--] Month [-------] +3,542%
- [--] Months [-------] +187%
- [--] Year [-------] +49,179%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -35%
- [--] Month [--] +423%
- [--] Months [---] +15%
- [--] Year [---] +1,410%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +9.60%
- [--] Month [-----] +17%
- [--] Months [-----] +122%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,250%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  #1216 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [finance](/list/finance)  #2310 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [financial services](/list/financial-services)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [musicians](/list/musicians) 

**Social topic influence**
[$fico](/topic/$fico), [asml](/topic/asml), [$asml](/topic/$asml), [$efx](/topic/$efx), [$spgi](/topic/$spgi) #40, [$mco](/topic/$mco) #8, [$umg](/topic/$umg), [$uber](/topic/$uber), [$rkt](/topic/$rkt), [in the](/topic/in-the)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@contrariancurse](/creator/undefined) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/undefined) [@larryjamieson](/creator/undefined) [@johnhuber72](/creator/undefined) [@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@returnoncap](/creator/undefined) [@stephanedubail](/creator/undefined) [@compoundpapi](/creator/undefined) [@petermantas](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@ramcocapital](/creator/undefined) [@radnorcapital](/creator/undefined) [@macaronicapital](/creator/undefined) [@obsidiancap1](/creator/undefined) [@fiscoraoriginal](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@theshahrestani](/creator/undefined) [@boiledeggcap](/creator/undefined) [@aureliusltd28](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Effect.AI (EFX)](/topic/$efx) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)](/topic/$rkt) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Msci Inc (MSCI)](/topic/$msci) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)](/topic/$wmg) [Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)](/topic/$cp) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)](/topic/$gev) [COMPASS Pathways plc (CMPS)](/topic/$cmps) [Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)](/topic/$amat) [Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT)](/topic/$vrt) [Constellation Energy Corp (CEG)](/topic/$ceg) [Vistra, Corp. (VST)](/topic/$vst) [Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)](/topic/$vrsk) [General Electric Company (GE)](/topic/$ge) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)](/topic/$lrcx) [Hilton Hotels Corporation Common Stock (HLT)](/topic/$hlt) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Teradyne, Inc. (TER)](/topic/$ter) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)](/topic/$tmo)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@compoundpapi Weschlers key insight is that SIRI is not a melting ice cube its a capital light subscription biz with low churn and a loyal subsciber base. Once they pay down debt they have a buyback machine at a 15% FCF yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1845976728981717014)  2024-10-14T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Shawn_OMalley_ His whole thesis was streaming model = sticky recurring revenue that is highly predictable (almost royalty-like). Once $NFLX changed to an ad-based model their cash flows became far more cyclical and less predictable. This was a good sell based on the facts at the time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1848427781174268230)  2024-10-21T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@compoundpapi Low double-digits nothing special. But given how expensive quality is right now a low dd IRR with a very narrow range of outcomes isnt bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1854952173601219019)  2024-11-08T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@rubicon59 $CEG $VST $VRT $GEV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1873406814106304780)  2024-12-29T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@boringstocks123 @DividendDude_X $NKE made a big mistake going all-in on DTC and abandoning wholesalers post-COVID. Hoka and On took shelf-space & market share. The new CEO is trying to reverse course but it will take time and the stock is not that cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1878511279951802703)  2025-01-12T18:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes @Larryjamieson_ for quality investing @BobEUnlimited for macro insights @JohnHuber72 for value investing @sidecarcap for great capital allocators"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1878568687814300020)  2025-01-12T22:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@RadnorCapital Did they mention $UMG and $WMG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1878835291014005100)  2025-01-13T16:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@RadnorCapital Im long $UMG. I agree negotiating leverage favors Spotify given their market share gains but Im still bullish on the labels as a bigger revenue pool benefits everyone. The bull case for the industry is that there is sooo much latent pricing power in music streaming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1878853513398387057)  2025-01-13T17:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Jjs24Jjs @tom_grlla @thepupil11 Ask yourself what would happen if UMG removed its music from Spotify"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1879683186499932332)  2025-01-16T00:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"People really spend their time Fed watching and trying to predict next months CPI when we are on the verge of having unlimited low cost super intelligence that will replace most white-collar labor and mega boost S&P [---] margins JUST IN: Axios reports that OpenAI is set to announce artificial intelligence super-agents capable of performing tasks at a PhD level JUST IN: Axios reports that OpenAI is set to announce artificial intelligence super-agents capable of performing tasks at a PhD level"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1881225972068098377)  2025-01-20T06:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ $EFX - TWN $MORN - PitchBook $GOOG - YouTube $APPL - App Store $MSCI - Index biz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/dgordo1818/status/1885691039869980895)  2025-02-01T14:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"JPM on $UMG negotiating leverage over Spotify"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886085887437459777)  2025-02-02T16:14Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Streaming saved the music industry $UMG $WMG $SPOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886086851150180563)  2025-02-02T16:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$EFX CEO on the significant pricing power of The Work Number"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886087396606787724)  2025-02-02T16:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Big [--] music label market share is remarkably stable $UMG $WMG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886088319546605915)  2025-02-02T16:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$EFX The Work Number has the trifecta of increasing records increasing hit rates and increasing prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886089399114387815)  2025-02-02T16:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$AMZN Amazon Prime is significantly underpriced with lots of opportunity for future price hikes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886090353251352928)  2025-02-02T16:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ $GOOG - YouTube $EFX - The Work Number $APPL - App Store"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886091054274781508)  2025-02-02T16:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Great breakdown of $EFX by @NimbleOpinions. Equifax is a very interesting business with a potentially incredible asset (The Work Number) inside of it https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ND1A7m7iRCs00vqEAfSjWsi=UCCpnhxgSueu9t_MGXoQzw https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ND1A7m7iRCs00vqEAfSjWsi=UCCpnhxgSueu9t_MGXoQzw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886092002011369573)  2025-02-02T16:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The best businesses own the exclusive legal rights to an asset that is both cheap and is considered essential to the end customer. $EFX - income data & $UMG - music catalog"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TollBridgeCap/status/1886094421294268513)  2025-02-02T16:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 @marketplunger1 The purchase of Barrick Gold was Ted Weschler not WB. I asked him about it during a Q&A at the University of Maryland in the Spring of [----]. He said he believed that the massive fiscal response would lead to inflation. He was correct but miners were not the way to play it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1894855494331666436)  2025-02-26T21:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueStockGeek How can AI transform our civilization without chips/power/land/data centers Companies like $CEG $VST $VRT $GEV are required for widespread AI adoption. If you believe were in the early innings of a decade long AI buildout these companies will are the primary beneficiaries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1895481852716290300)  2025-02-28T14:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"This is the whole game. Find companies with high ROIC that cant be disrupted or (even better) find companies with increasing ROIIC. I would put $MCO $SPGI $V $MA in the former camp and $AMZN $EFX in the latter camp Great update from @mjmauboussin on ROIC and TSR. As is obvious falling ROIC is challenging to TSR. Even where theory says if ROIC WACC it's value creating if ROIIC base ROIC multiple compression will be powerful headwind for returns. https://t.co/2hOnH3oJ3V https://t.co/8SCMKwI9A0 Great update from @mjmauboussin on ROIC and TSR. As is obvious falling ROIC is challenging to TSR."  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1895514890615603563)  2025-02-28T16:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@peter_mantas Agree on $CMPS (see below) [--] months out from P3 trial results TRD is massive unmet need Only [--] approved drug for TRD P2 trials showed efficacy at 25mg If successful $1B+ drug CMPS is a quarterly medicine Low side-effect profile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1896622351921643704)  2025-03-03T18:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@FiscoraOriginal I think the answer is: I dont know. Therefore it goes into the too hard pile. These niche software monopolies are fantastic businesses but its very difficult to predict with any precision what the compeitive dynamics will look like five or ten years from now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1900545771113415019)  2025-03-14T13:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I have the same issue with $GOOG and $UBER. Theyre optically cheap because the market is pricing-in potential terminal value losses from disruption risk. If I had to guess I would think that they maintain their dominant positions over the next decade. But its very difficult to predict"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1900566769523192262)  2025-03-14T15:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ $GOOG is not cheap on P/FCF it's a bad capital allocator with declining ROIIC and the search biz has peaked. I'd rather own a $EFX which has a monopoly biz declining CapEx a muli-year runway of price + volume growth and a new buyback program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1901287099224989984)  2025-03-16T14:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"You have to subtract SBC from FCF to get the true P/FCF per share. ROIIC will decline unless AI ends up being a better biz than search (unlikely). Cash never gets returned to shareholders and search faces serious disruption risk from LLMs (ChatGPT Perplexity etc.) $GOOG goes in the too hard pile IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1901297133589795165)  2025-03-16T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$DPZ is a great business. A capital-light royalty biz which offers a superb value proposition to customers (fast + cheap pizza). However its far too expensive for Buffett to buy. He doesnt pay more than 10x operating income and $DPZ trades for 22x trailing operating income. I think the recent buy was Ted Weschler who sees an underappreicated opportunity for $DPZ to expand margins via reduced labor costs (self-driving delivery) from AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1901670984454664488)  2025-03-17T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KoyfinCharts $EFX over the next three years. Skate to where the puck is going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1903137104059568555)  2025-03-21T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RadnorCapital I like Bernsteins framework that Amazon is turning itself into an adveritising business disguised as a retail business. It is hard to understate just how meaningfully FCF is going to inflect over the coming years as services continue to grow as a percent of overall revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1904605111441105086)  2025-03-25T18:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I agree with all of this. I think the most predictable way to play the AI infrastructure buildout theme is via electricity + cooling beneficiaries like $CEG $VST $VRT $GEV. Im more bullish on natural gas than nuclear energy over the near/medium-term. I still think were in the early innings a decade-long electricity growth story. What do you think Radnor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905289255724646617)  2025-03-27T16:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"This is the power of owning a royalty on a base of assets with a long runway of growth. $YUM does not own any asstes or capital they simply clip a coupon from local franchisees in exchange for brand-use and operational support. Basically a perpetual bond disguised as an equity-security"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905291480840990845)  2025-03-27T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@finchat_io I still prefer the labels $UMG $WMG long-term. I think the entire music streaming ecosystem $SPOT will do well but Id rather own the IP than the distributor. Owning a royalty on global music consumption is a fantastic business model IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905652919522787718)  2025-03-28T16:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FiscoraOriginal What companies do you think have latent pricing power I think $EFX $SPOT $AMZN (Prime) all offer services where value cost and customers are willing to pay more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905658384214274079)  2025-03-28T16:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FiscoraOriginal Agree. But the market has already priced-in the $FICO price hikes. Im looking for businesses that have yet to implement price hikes but have the ability to in the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905660412479058151)  2025-03-28T16:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@realroseceline @FiscoraOriginal I would definitely put luxury brands in this category $RMS $LVMH. I do think weve reached peak materialism in the U.S. I think experiences stuff are where Millennial dollars are going towards $ABNB $UBER $NFLX $SPOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905669798832329186)  2025-03-28T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@realroseceline @FiscoraOriginal You gotta skate to where the puck is goingis RMS going to be a better business [--] years from now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905671889600577836)  2025-03-28T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RadnorCapital This is why I avoid retail (ex-Amazon). Consumer preferences are rapidly changing and very difficult to predict over the long-term. I prefer consumer businesses with predictable recurring revenue $NFLX $SPOT $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905678906096488635)  2025-03-28T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@joecarlsonshow $AMZN has a more durable moat and ROIC is rising as services grow faster than the retail biz. $GOOG has terminal value risk + has falling ROIC as the search biz has peaked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1905751510123979111)  2025-03-28T22:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap The # of companies that can grow at 15% for a decade are extremely small. Predicting them ex-ante is extremely difficult. If I had to guess: $AMZN $EFX $FICO $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DGCapital18/status/1906393049565106205)  2025-03-30T17:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@peter_mantas $AMZN Thesis: * Massive TAM * Expanding margins + accelerating ROIC * FCF hitting an inflection point * Initiate a capital return program * Cloud capex is accretive to ROIC * Operating margins approach 20% * Cost efficiencies in e-commerce * Favorable mix from AWS/ads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1906725817599537548)  2025-03-31T15:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@returnoncap I like the $EFX setup here. Cloud spending falling + mortgage rates falling + EWS operating leverage + TWN price hikes + huge income verification TAM + buyback program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DGCapital18/status/1907989901271851433)  2025-04-04T02:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ArneUlland $GOOG $AMZN $ASML can all double their FCF/share over the next [--] years without meaningful multiple compression. Outside of those $SPGI $MCO $MSCI offer low-risk low double digit IRRs at these levels IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DGCapital18/status/1909023026105975034)  2025-04-06T23:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Retweeting this in the event that these businesses get cheap over the coming weeks $MCO $SPGI $MA $V $MSCI $VRSK $EFX $FICO 🙏 hello - there are like [--] businesses in the world that grow without any meaningful capital reinvestment. you can buy them when they get cheap - thank you for coming to my ted talk hello - there are like [--] businesses in the world that grow without any meaningful capital reinvestment. you can buy them when they get cheap - thank you for coming to my ted talk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DGCapital18/status/1909024084521853162)  2025-04-06T23:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse I agree. Electrification is a secular grow story. Nat gas nuclear & unregulated regulated. We need a ton of power + cooling for data centers. Im long $VST $CEG $VRT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1909678934393774574)  2025-04-08T18:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse And $GEV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCapital18/status/1909679024147669438)  2025-04-08T18:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"One thing Buffett got wrong is his view that the best businesses are those that can deploy capital at a very high rate of return. In reality the best businesses can grow their earnings power without needing to invest any incremental capital at all $V $MA $SPGI $MCO $EFX $MSCI Buffetts investment parameters https://t.co/Rxbr8CwO1O Buffetts investment parameters https://t.co/Rxbr8CwO1O"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1911126097686655016)  2025-04-12T18:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PythiaR This is because $MSCI earns a fee on AUM for managers that benchmark against their index right So more capital flowing into international funds = more $$$ for MSCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1912543711747092850)  2025-04-16T16:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man Have you taken a look at $HTZ A good asymmetric bet in my opinion. Post bankruptcy valuation was $7B. They have half a million cars on their balance sheet which will significantly appreciate in value due to auto tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1912593475503014135)  2025-04-16T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse You like AMAT here over LRCX/ASML right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1912886301071655150)  2025-04-17T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Jon Gray of $BX investment checklist: Large growing market Moat (Brand/network effects) High margins Low capital intensity Recurring revenue Low government or client risk Jon Gray of $BX on what makes a good business and why $HLT is one of the best (via Tangen convo) https://t.co/CFC9DdKCe3 Jon Gray of $BX on what makes a good business and why $HLT is one of the best (via Tangen convo) https://t.co/CFC9DdKCe3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DumbRockCapital/status/1913978141032276157)  2025-04-20T15:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$MSCI is a royalty on international equity inflows We do see notably opportunity for $MSCI to outperform our revised estimates especially if uncertainty leads to a prolonged rotation away from US equities. - JPM We do see notably opportunity for $MSCI to outperform our revised estimates especially if uncertainty leads to a prolonged rotation away from US equities. - JPM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DumbRockCapital/status/1914011139257860109)  2025-04-20T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is the pond you want to be fishing in $MSCI $FICO $SPGI $MCO biz services 3Q23 EBITDA margins + y/y exp/contr; "high-margin companies generally delivered margin expansion" $MSCI $VRSK $FICO $SPGI https://t.co/fFaGAUCAbH biz services 3Q23 EBITDA margins + y/y exp/contr; "high-margin companies generally delivered margin expansion" $MSCI $VRSK $FICO $SPGI https://t.co/fFaGAUCAbH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DumbRockCapital/status/1914012398723141958)  2025-04-20T17:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@sonalibasak The end of the American empire narrative is hyperbolic and silly. The US trades at a premium because its companies earn much higher returns on capital than the RoW. These companies are created in America because of innovative culture + legal immigration + robust capital markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1917630804961743007)  2025-04-30T17:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@blondesnmoney You buy $EFX. The end game is 5% mortgages + the economy reaccelerates into year-end. 3+ years of pent up demand for mortgages means $EFX could print $10 of EPS in [----] once mortgage vols return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1917984202735403282)  2025-05-01T16:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse 100% agree. IMO the best hedge against currency decline is owning great businesses with significant pricing power (MCO MA MSCI EFX MSFT ASML). Id rather own a company that can predictably raise its prices above CPI than a not cash flow producing asset (Gold/Bitcoin)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1922047062918504510)  2025-05-12T21:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@returnoncap Is there a scenario where ASMLs monopoly is threatened within the next [--] years My understanding is it is virtually impossible for their technology to be displaced within the next decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1922050290825461915)  2025-05-12T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap I agree. Constantly torn between the fact that it meets all my investment criteria (mission critical pricing power no close substitutes strong organic growth) and the lessons of history (technology a moat)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1922083221786841508)  2025-05-13T00:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@iancassel $SPOT $UBER $GRND are some good recent examples. You have to anticipate the inflection in FCF before the market prices it in. The key is to focus on changes to unit economics and market dynamics rather than focusing on quarterly earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1922090748767342954)  2025-05-13T00:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@peter_mantas @marc_slans Do you like $TMO here At a 17x forward PE the market is pricing in 4%-5% normalized earnings growth. Seems like a low-risk bet that they grow EPS faster than that over the next 5-years. Any thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1922650860691050572)  2025-05-14T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$EFX CEO on The Work Numbers pricing power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1923763997930557581)  2025-05-17T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"JPM on $UMG negotiating leverage over $SPOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923764589981782190)  2025-05-17T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$ASML management on internal know-how. Some things are simply not in the drawings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923768052870529385)  2025-05-17T15:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Morningstar on $ASML installed base and switching costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923768236547469681)  2025-05-17T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Market share across the music labels remains quite stable $UMG $WMG $SONY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923769057796317603)  2025-05-17T15:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The cost of music has dropped significantly over the last [--] years. $UMG $WMG $SPOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923769331118182714)  2025-05-17T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Vincent Montemaggiore of Fidelity on $ASML: There are no competitors. You dont really have a legitimate competitor. And thats because of just how complex it is to make their EUV lithography machine. So they have a very advantageous position within the semi-cap supply chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923792210429907142)  2025-05-17T17:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$EFX Growth of The Work Number (TWN)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923883922036801756)  2025-05-17T23:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The AI revenue opportunity in Business & Info Services $FICO $IT $MCO $SPGI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923884300073664560)  2025-05-17T23:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The power of predictable recurring revenue $MSCI $MCO $VRSK $SPGI $FDS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923884676785058223)  2025-05-17T23:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@At50w50882 @marc_slans My counterpoint would be that cost advantages + scale + physical distribution networks can create very durable moats in retail. 99.9% of retailers are bad businesses. But $AMZN $COST have extremly high barriers to entry with low displacement risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923885442883043380)  2025-05-17T23:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@EugeneNg_VCap I think people underestimate just how large the TAM is for these business and how durable the earnings growth is. People are going to look back in a decade and realize $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT were persistently undervalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1923926503705768234)  2025-05-18T02:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GavinBel @Aureliusltd28 Its biotech. So hated right now but therere some interesting asymmetric opps. $CMPS releases its P3 readout for COMP360 in June. If the P3 readout is favorable $CMPS goes from $4 to $10 instantly IMO and then to $30 in the next [--] years w/ FDA approval + commercial launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924119450795610418)  2025-05-18T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@psyopcapital It all comes back to barriers to entry ($AMZN $CP) and pricing power ($EFX $FICO $SPGI). The two qs to ask: if someone spent $10B to compete could they What would happen to volumes if the biz doubled prices overnight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924127898878796054)  2025-05-18T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Chris Hohn: One important thing that Ive learned in my time in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption $CP $MSFT $GE $MCO $V"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924158951626547504)  2025-05-18T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Great write-up from Michael Cembalest of JPM on AI adoption: AI adoption is inflecting higher as models are getting much better. But the big question that remains is: when will big tech see ROI on their massive AI CapEx $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG http://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jp http://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1924167057706201179)  2025-05-18T18:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Morningstar $ASML thesis: Tech advantage in lithography will expand due to massive R&D budget + rising recurring service revenue + pricing power + AI semi super-cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925018931971977371)  2025-05-21T02:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL What about ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925237190923018539)  2025-05-21T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@cloneinvestor @RAMCOCAPITAL Tech advantages are usually not very durable. However I would argue that $ASML is an exception to the rule that technology a moat. Their EUV tech advantage is simply way too advanced and complex to be replaced anytime soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925243040530096321)  2025-05-21T17:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@cloneinvestor @RAMCOCAPITAL Yep. I think its important to have humility when it comes to predicting technology but also not religiously follow the idea that superior tech is never a sustainable moat for a biz. As Munger put it the young man knows the rules the old man knows the exceptions. $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925246752442994802)  2025-05-21T17:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL Could we wrong but doesnt TSMC needs ASMLs machines just as much as ASML needs TSMC as a customer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925250753943212512)  2025-05-21T18:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@compoundpapi Everyone hates on Ackman but his track record is acc very good. $CP $HLT $GOOG $UBER $BN + covid hedge + MBIA short + treasury short + GGP + $FNMA $FMCC. The man is very smart and not afraid to bet big against the consensus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925702762035097938)  2025-05-22T23:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Dev Kantesaria on $ASML they may be [--] years ahead of any competitor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1925756473063170521)  2025-05-23T03:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@lhamtil Where is this from and which comapnies are the primary beneficiaries of this GE Safran"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926367259556982784)  2025-05-24T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Pershing Square owns 220m shares of $FNMA and $FMCC common stock. If his estimate of the IPO price ($30/share) is accurate his stake will be worth $6.6B. He waited [--] years for what could end up being the single most valuable hedge fund trade of all-time. It is almost always the case that the higher the stock price the greater the risk to shareholders. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F2) are rare examples of the phenomenon that the more their stock prices rise the lower the risk of investing in F2 and the greater their intrinsic It is almost always the case that the higher the stock price the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926379509026058659)  2025-05-24T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse If you had a job at risk of displacement from AI and you had to pick one single stock as a hedge for the next decade (increases in value as the risk of job displacement rises). What would it be ASML MSFT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1926385141712068615)  2025-05-24T21:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@At50w50882 @BramVGenechten @realroseceline @themattharbaugh This is why I own $ASML but not in size. The one question that matters is: whats the probability that their tech advantage persists for the next decade I think its very likely to persist but to try to determine if its 70% 90% or 99% is very difficult. cc: @evrgn11112231"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1926392789547299072)  2025-05-24T21:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 The best companies in the world are optically expensive (P/E) but if they can grow FCF above GDP for decades theyre actually quite cheap. $MCO has grow revenue 10%/year for [---] years. A cash flow that grows 10% in perpetuity is worth 50x earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926450929714208822)  2025-05-25T01:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 I agree its incredibly difficult to predict these companies a priori. But I do think investors wrongly assume that terminal growth always reverts to GDP. Chris Hohn talks about the rare class of super companies that can price above CPI for decades $SPGI $MCO $MA $V $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1926454883026186670)  2025-05-25T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My one-page thesis on $EFX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1926650423500284154)  2025-05-25T14:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My one-page thesis on $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1926650486083424694)  2025-05-25T14:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@WelfareCapLLC I think its just hard for people to come to terms with the fact that the widest moat in the world could come from a tech advantage. 99% of the time tech advantages are susceptible to disruption risk but with $ASML its just too complex and integrated into the semi supply chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926749212374413427)  2025-05-25T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Trump on advanced semi technology: this is not something you can just recreate in a few years this is pure genius on the pin of needle. Pretty much sums up $ASML $TSM massive moat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1927007272355459076)  2025-05-26T14:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ The old Pulte trade - long $FNMA/short $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1927730522634998108)  2025-05-28T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChairliftCap You just need one good insight for the thesis to work. $UMG - music streaming is underpriced $AMZN - physical distribution network is not replicable $ASML - tech is [--] years ahead of competition $EFX - The Work Number has a ton of future pricing power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1927894694438023395)  2025-05-29T01:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@racetrack275 @PythiaR What makes you say this I dont disagree but why is this the case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928254547601887641)  2025-05-30T00:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@_fabknowledge_ @racetrack275 @PythiaR @_fabknowledge_ im confusedare you saying you like asml here or no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928276000678223988)  2025-05-30T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@_fabknowledge_ @racetrack275 @PythiaR So youre saying the market has priced in peak litho therefore the stock is de-risked and a buy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928277451467100311)  2025-05-30T02:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Aureliusltd28 Do you like $FCNCA here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928563509169725785)  2025-05-30T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"BNP Paribas on $ASML: We believe litho intensity fears are overblown. Efficiency gains from pattern shaping backside power and tools reuse lead only to marginal rather than transformational game and were always part of the EUV roadmap - there is simply no alternative to EUV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928566987292098836)  2025-05-30T21:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DannyOcean555 What are some good resources to get familar with $MTN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928883920956788816)  2025-05-31T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@buccocapital Just own $MSFT $GOOG $ASML and youre good to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1928885343714971851)  2025-05-31T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC @themattharbaugh Irreplaceable physical assets - $CP $AMZN IP - $ASML $UMG Installed base/scale/switching costs - $MSFT Network effects - $MCO $EFX $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928922566778921041)  2025-05-31T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @Mooseinequity Do you worry being concentrated long $ASML and $TSM unhedged Like you can know these names better than anyone on Earth and still blowup b/c of a Black Swan event (China/Taiwan)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1929337780598899151)  2025-06-02T00:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheETFTracker Just buy $ASML. Its the toll-collector for all of these companies to develop AI products"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1930345155481219129)  2025-06-04T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lithos_graphein How long before ASML EUV is replicated or replaced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1930672259003252748)  2025-06-05T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SleepwellCap Any thoughts on how the labels vs. DSPs dynamics play out from here Im long $UMG on the latent pricing power thesis but that has not played out. Consensus is that $SPOT now has some leverage over the labels but Im still a big believer in IP distribution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1931747334649741782)  2025-06-08T16:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SleepwellCap Irreplaceable physical assets with major issues. IMO the bear case is mostly priced-in and at a 7.5% FCF yield the risk is skewed to the upside. They need to fix the skier experience + cut the dividend. Then they can restart price hikes and the stock goes from $150 to $220. $MTN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1931748894117105943)  2025-06-08T16:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Larryjamieson_ Gundlach is smart but hes focused on the wrong stuff (macro fed cycles). Hes missing the big picture - US has the best companies + demographic tailwinds + tech innovation + perpetual bid from retail/401k. Doomers always sound smart but bulls make $"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1933901548112732173)  2025-06-14T14:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@blondesnmoney when donald says the Fed needs to cut rates 100bps and can hand select a dovish fed chair in [--] months you get levered long $RKT $FICO $EFX $AIF.TO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1934747790078304470)  2025-06-16T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChrisPavese @CodyShirk Why do you think the latent pricing power theme has not played out And why have the labels $WMG $UMG gone nowhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1935711001598427385)  2025-06-19T14:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@macaronicapital Whats your $UBER bull case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1936068429674353135)  2025-06-20T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@macaronicapital I meant other names you like outside of $UBER"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1936080112144863235)  2025-06-20T15:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The $UBER bull case in two sentences: Either AVs build too much capacity (poor capital allocation) or too little (poor user experience). Supply on Ubers platform better adjusts to peaks in demand so Uber can optimize utilization while AVs cannot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936491222085885980)  2025-06-21T18:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@macaronicapital @TheShahrestani thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1936491251278176334)  2025-06-21T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheShahrestani @macaronicapital Good point. The terminal value fears are just not convincing to me. I think people sell instinctively on perceived uncertainty around AVs (disruption risk) without actually doing the work on $UBER network effects/competitive position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936808648757449127)  2025-06-22T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pulte I read that the Treasury will massively dilute common shareholders of $FNMA $FMCC in any IPO of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Can you clarify that this is true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1938658221998428360)  2025-06-27T17:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pulte @Larryjamieson_ Pultes trying to give us another entry point on $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1938663157163065668)  2025-06-27T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@atelicinvest Just buy $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1938694836510413192)  2025-06-27T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JimmyButlerCap @ContrarianCurse Do luxury brands $LVMH and experiences $LYV become more valuable if AI is massively deflationary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1939127530578968750)  2025-06-29T01:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@compoundpapi $RKT = fully digital vertically integrated mortgage lender with a cost edge strong brand and industry-leading retention. Mortgages are a coiled spring + Redfin/Mr. Cooper deals = dominant scale & market share gains when mortgage volumes rebound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941915667873116596)  2025-07-06T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Im getting calls daily from people looking to refinance if only there were a pure-play public mortgage lender transforming itself into a digital mortgage juggernaut poised to take share when volumes rebound with 50% short interest. $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1941924831718527335)  2025-07-06T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @sidecarcap $BME.L is a good example of this right now. The current valuation makes zero sense if you have duration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1943029975122153601)  2025-07-09T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Bought $FICO at $1560/share today. FICO remains deeply entrenched in the mortgage ecosystem. Tri-merge ensures ongoing revenue from credit score pulls. VantageScore will have limited lender adoption & limited impact on pricing. FICOs dominant position remains (for now)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1943703971429859350)  2025-07-11T16:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SSGY12356 Thats the big question. The other is: what are true normalized earnings if mortgage vols return and you account for non-mortgage price hikes I still think $FICO could realistically triple its earnings power by [----]. The Pulte stuff is all noise IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1943746006094348441)  2025-07-11T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ToddWenning You want to own the names with organic revenue growth + predictability. $CL is predictable but theres no growth. $PLTR is growing rapidly but its competitive position is not predictable. $ASML falls at the intersection of growth + predictability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1944115548163633566)  2025-07-12T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Sleepysolcap Counterpoint is $ASML is actually very cheap if you care about intrinsic value and not quarterly orders. 12.5x [----] earnings = 15% IRR at a 25x [----] multiple. Not bad for a monopoly toll collector with the most bullish end market (AI CapEx) in human history"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1945506065056989440)  2025-07-16T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @jnconkle @nuancerocket Peak litho is priced in. Multiple spread with peers has compressed and sell-side is max bearish on $ASML relative to other semi caps. I think $750/share is a 15% IRR over the next [--] years. 27x earnings for mid-teen normalized earnings growth is good value IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945926198304890885)  2025-07-17T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CompTortoise Best is when you find a stock with high ROIC like $ASML in an industry where underlying growth never reverts back to GDP growth (Semis). Every sell-side model for $ASML uses terminal growth of 3% but semis (demand for compute) could outgrow GDP for a very long time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946611524660863215)  2025-07-19T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost entirely disappeared. Shares are de-risked on [--] numbers and now trade at 20x [--] EPS. A bargain IMO. [----] EPS of $60 at 25x PE is a 15% IRR from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1947345648107274654)  2025-07-21T17:19Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL Still got a chance with ASML here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1947391250027684292)  2025-07-21T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse Ngl youre on fire with these tradespower $RKT $ETN $TMO etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1948047305115881820)  2025-07-23T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@realroseceline I would argue that the holy grail of investing is finding a durable monopoly with secular tailwinds that can reinvest capital at very high incremental returns. Even better if it trades at 25x earnings and is hated by every hedge fund and sell-side analyst. $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1948093994065355088)  2025-07-23T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PythiaR But.peak lithoI mean [--] uncertaintyI mean tariffs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/GordoCap18/status/1948137647018287397)  2025-07-23T21:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JourneyToIthaka Thoughts on ASML at these levels"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1949886434183200842)  2025-07-28T17:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Me looking at the Bloomberg Terminal seeing the most moated undisruptable monopoly in the world $ASML trading at 20x [----] EPS with a decade of secular tailwinds from cash rich tech companies spending trillions competing to be the first one to create digital god"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1950248917800509773)  2025-07-29T17:35Z [---] followers, 76.8K engagements


"@SouthernValue95 What matters is 2025-2030 EPS growth. If you back into the current valuation the market is pricing in the worst case outcome based on $ASML [----] outlook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1950288658403086825)  2025-07-29T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SouthernValue95 Keeping non-AI demand flat at $471B through [----] would translate into global chip demand $1.2T in [----]. even with litho intensity declining to 22.5% (on 15% WFE intensity) $ASML would be able to meet the mid-point of its [----] guide"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1950292729721680238)  2025-07-29T20:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes Non-AI chips are coming out of a cyclical downturn and robotics/industrial automation will drive a new demand cycle. The time to buy $TSM was [--] months ago. The time to buy $ASML is now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1950625839114067985)  2025-07-30T18:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @lfg_cap You have to pin this in [--] months when $ASML is $1200/share and every sell-side analyst is suddenly bullish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1952008749914415449)  2025-08-03T14:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Next100Baggers @BourbonCap What are your thoughts on the peak litho bear case for $ASML and the regulatory headwinds for $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1952161009914794168)  2025-08-04T00:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse Solong stocks (tech luxury music travel)long gold/bitcoinshort bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1952904414370451930)  2025-08-06T01:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse Do have a view on $ASML here I know you think its the most challeneged of the semi caps but the expectations priced in at these levels are pretty low. Basically priced to grow top line in-line with the industry with minor margin expansion from services growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1953174168033476789)  2025-08-06T19:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FICO thesis: Dominates credit scoring w/ 90% lender penetration deep workflow embed & network effects. Tri-Merge mandate + similar VS pricing = little switch incentive. FICO 10T outperforms VS [---] 5x in default detection. Pricing power & moat remain intact"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1955689047872954630)  2025-08-13T17:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FICO is in a 45% drawdown on regulatory concerns. Every few years the market gives you the opportunity to buy one of the greatest biz in the world (dominant market share + pricing power + network effects + buybacks) at a discount due to short-term noise. I will be open a new quantitative hedge fund. The strategy is simple. We buy $FICO on every negative regulatory headline. Have backtested and sharpe ratio is amazing. Will be levering the port [--] - [--]. Accepting minimum cheques of 10M. Send cash. Thanks. I will be open a new quantitative hedge fund. The strategy is simple. We buy $FICO on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1955798567420850334)  2025-08-14T01:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO now trades at 36x [----] earnings for a biz that can reasonably grow FCF 20%+ for a very long time. Regulatory + competitive concerns are overblown as FHFA cant materially impact pricing & FICO benefits from a winner-take-all market structure with powerful network effects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956020952505946589)  2025-08-14T15:51Z [----] followers, 35.8K engagements


"$FICO is a textbook case where anyone whos done real work on the name knows the regulation/competition fears are nonsense - yet the stock keeps sliding because the markets too impatient to wait for the truth to play out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956022776474501465)  2025-08-14T15:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT you only need one good idea every few years. Mine is that the neutral rate of interest (r*) has not changed since Covid. Tariffs inflation AI is deflationary and underlying inflation is stable at 2% and has been for almost [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956141619360477586)  2025-08-14T23:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Companies like $FICO $SPGI $MCO $V $MA $MSCI $EFX that can grow without capital are perpetually undervalued by the market b/c people underestimate just how long of a runway that have for volume + pricing growth. These businesses could realistically grow FCF at 10%+ for decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956163867911815591)  2025-08-15T01:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Raymond James summing up my $FICO thesis: [--]. Tri-merge requirement is bullish for FICO. [--]. FICO is industry standard with network effects + little incentive for lenders to switch to VantageScore. [--]. FHFA cant regulate FICO pricing & cant force GSEs to stop using FICO scores"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956400862458216847)  2025-08-15T17:01Z [----] followers, 69.1K engagements


"A stock at 40x earnings can be cheaper than a stock at 10x earnings. Valuation is a function of growth predictability and durability. $FICO is the best biz in the world IMO and regulatory fears are overblown. How ppl can comfortably underwrite 40x +2 FY earnings scares me lol How ppl can comfortably underwrite 40x +2 FY earnings scares me lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956466285660770714)  2025-08-15T21:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tierrapartners Lenders will not switch due to the administrative costs and additional interest expense from using VantageScore. Study $SPGI and $MCO to see how powerful industry standardization and network effects are. $FICO could realistically grow FCF mid-teens for the next decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956706123995631709)  2025-08-16T13:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Morningstar on $TRU $EFX $FICO and mortgage volumes: Mortgage inquiries appear to have bottomed as Fed rate cuts and narrowing mortgage spreads support activity. Among the group $FICO and $EFX offer the greatest EPS upside from a rebound in mortgage volumes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956716006220472588)  2025-08-16T13:53Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements


"Morningstar on $FICO moat in credit scoring: As more banks and consumers use a particular type of credit score it becomes a de facto industry standard FICOs moat source in scoring stems from a network effect rather than through anticompetitive practices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956718026998644805)  2025-08-16T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FICO $EFX have meaningful upside if mortgage volumes rebound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956718601349501104)  2025-08-16T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@victaurs Is this comment bullish or bearish for FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956745194780475687)  2025-08-16T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$FICO pricing strategy remains unchanged. FICO indicated that pricing increases for the next year will be similar to recent years. 37x forward earnings for 20%+ FCF/share growth is quite attractive IMO. Market is wrong on regulatory/competitive risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957112670303158544)  2025-08-17T16:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT The mortgage rebound trade is still the best story in the market IMO. Mortgage rates are drifting lower as spreads normalize the labor market weakens tariffs inflation and AI is deflationary. Still plenty of runway left on this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1957965820694266241)  2025-08-20T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap I have yet to hear a FICO bear explain why any lender would switch to VantageScore. Everyone who has actually done the work comes to the same conclusion: FICOs competitive position has not changed. Its all classic FUD and now they can buyback their stock at attractive prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959000896731328761)  2025-08-22T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thx. I agree that negotiating leverage has shifted to $SPOT as theyve gained market share. Im still bullish on the music ecosystem as I think prices still have a long runway for growth. Price hikes will benefit $SPOT and also flow through to the labels. Owning a royalty on global music consumption is a fantastic long-term asset"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1959437695333130593)  2025-08-24T02:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You can make a lot of money if you can accurately predict whether this trend is secular or will mean-revert. My guess is that the pendulum will swing back and alcohol stocks are a buy here given the asymmetric risk/reward. $DEO $BF.B $STZ Alcohol consumption in the US is at its lowest point since before WW2 though sudden usage drop-offs such as this have historically been followed by sharp cyclical rebounds in demand. (@Gallup) https://t.co/t8weOlVtYL Alcohol consumption in the US is at its lowest point since before WW2 though sudden usage drop-offs such as this have historically been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1960075521922130091)  2025-08-25T20:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FICO rose 6% today and is up 10% this week as the market is gradually recognizing what Ive been saying for weeks: FICOs competitive position in scoring remains unchanged. VantageScore will not gain market share and the FHFA has no authority to regulate FICOs pricing. The stock was overpriced late last year but briefly became reasonably valued around $1300 per share. Looking ahead I believe earnings growth could accelerate as mortgage volumes recover and as FICO begins to raise prices in autos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961190190220992743)  2025-08-28T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@LongOnlyLarry This is literally the whole game right now. Buy stocks with durable moats + terminal value where earnings revisions are going down + pod bros are shorting. This is a major market inefficiency that you can take advantage of. $ASML is a great example of this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1961452359210422596)  2025-08-29T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If volumes rebound to the [--------] average $FICOs [----] earnings power could reach $75/share (+40%). That scenario is unlikely given how many buyers are locked into sub-5% mortgages. My base case assumes mortgage rates fall below 6% leading to $60/share in [----] earnings power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1962229433332596903)  2025-08-31T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New note from Goldman Sachs on $ASML moat: Chinas lithography is [--] years behind ASML. With a monopoly on EUV ASML is the tollbooth that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and NVIDIA must pay to build advanced AI chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962561898890613091)  2025-09-01T17:03Z [----] followers, 40.1K engagements


"$FNMA & $FMCC are rare examples of positive reflexivity: the higher the stock price the lower the risk which in turn pushes the price higher. Each step toward exiting conservatorship raises the share price and further reduces dilution risk for common shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963256498382848055)  2025-09-03T15:03Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements


"Bought some $PBI today. New CEO is largest shareholder & proven capital allocator driving turnaround. Trades at 6x FCF (17% yield). $150M buyback w/ likely upsizing. Durable moat limited downside & multiple catalysts for rerating. Love the setup here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1963287096329654313)  2025-09-03T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Citrini7 on how the Trump administration can lower mortgage rates via the GSEs. If hes correct this would be very bullish for $FNMA $FMCC $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963393418513846759)  2025-09-04T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Added to $PBI today. Its a rare situation where you actually want the share price to fall. A lower stock price allows the company to buy back more shares at a higher FCF yield. A 16% FCF yield combined with a surprisingly durable business is quite attractive IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1965804844255752295)  2025-09-10T15:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@NoCapCapital5 @JohnHuber72 True - unless you have an activist investor like Kurt Wolf running $PBI with the stock trading at a 17% FCF yield and the vast majority of his compensation tied to the share price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1966900290226888752)  2025-09-13T16:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@obsidiancap1 If you do the work on $PBI you will come to the conclusion that it has a durable moat and the biz is not going anywhere. New CEO is an activist who realized this took a large stake in the company and is now taking advantage of the cheap stock price via a large buyback program"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1967406145267712308)  2025-09-15T01:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@obsidiancap1 $PBI should earn $2 of FCF/share in [----]. A reasonable multiple for a durable business with no growth is 10x P/FCF. That would mean $PBI should be a $20 stock in two years or a 30% IRR from the current price. Not a bad return in a frothy market IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1967407043943575943)  2025-09-15T01:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 @LogicalThesis @Larryjamieson_ Thanks John. What makes you confident that the future FCF of $PBI is stable/durable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1967591958102356013)  2025-09-15T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"When the world needed him the most he vanished @evrgn11112231 @WelfareCapLLC @JerryCap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1967653304546267211)  2025-09-15T18:14Z [---] followers, 10.2K engagements


"@WelfareCapLLC @evrgn11112231 @JerryCap Might have to get long $BME.L in his memory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1967654419148968342)  2025-09-15T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse The Hohn/Valley Forge doctrine: Irreplaceable physical infrastructure credit rails credit rating platform monopolies. Concentrate the port and sever sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1968034048011538884)  2025-09-16T19:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Pounding the table on $PBI here. $2/share FCF in [----] trading at 5.5x FCF (17% yield). $400m buyback authorized. Core Presort & SendTech units run at 30%+ margins with sticky customers. At this yield investors can earn 20%/yr through buybacks + slight multiple expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1968417662393831474)  2025-09-17T20:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Trimmed some of my $ASML position today. Its the largest position Ive ever taken in a single stock. Funny how the sell side hated $ASML at $650/share but loves it at $960/share. Still bullish but the spread between price and intrinsic value has narrowed. $ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost entirely disappeared. Shares are de-risked on [--] numbers and now trade at 20x [--] EPS. A bargain IMO. [----] EPS of $60 at 25x PE is a 15% IRR from here. https://t.co/Zq73dZEpgU $ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1970169187239915662)  2025-09-22T16:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CounselBigDog I dont worry about why the stock is down. All I care about is: am I buying it for less than what its worth The key is figuring out what a biz is worth. Its an art not a science. Key variables are growth durability (moat) ROIIC and capital allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971288096370196540)  2025-09-25T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap Im underwriting an 11% IRR from here. I think the outlook is skewed towards the bull case (15% IRR) given the potential margin expansion from AI reducing labor costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971321907082559561)  2025-09-25T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar makes the case for $UMG: music streaming is the lowest-cost form of entertainment every $1 increase in price translates to roughly 3% revenue growth for the labels and streaming still has a long runway for global growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971948484904505414)  2025-09-27T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar expects the semiconductor industry to grow at a 10% CAGR through [----]. Smartphone chips automotive chips and PC CPUs are expected to recover over the next few years as AI drives a GPU supercycle. $TSM $NVDA $ASML $AMAT $MU $INTC $AMD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971950104593780947)  2025-09-27T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar on AI driving generational demand for tech: power is the major computing bottleneck and electricity demand is soaring as hyperscaler spending shows no signs of slowing down. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $CEG $GEV $VST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971951296036196416)  2025-09-27T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"At its current price $PBI can buy back 20% of its shares through its $400mm buyback program. That implies the share price could rise 20% with no change in P/E. This strategy only works if the business is durable (has terminal value) which I believe $PBI does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1972685130687779173)  2025-09-29T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Morningstar on AI driving a capex + power boom: Hyperscaler spend $450B+ by [----] (24% CAGR). Direct AI revenue hundreds of billions by late 2020s. Data center power demand [--] by [----] AI workloads compounding 30%. AI is the biggest tech demand driver of the decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1972712162566045754)  2025-09-29T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL So confused why does he support this move Am I missing something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1973909341725171734)  2025-10-03T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 Thx. There are few things Im certain of but one of them is that the US will need a lot more power in the coming years (Im bullish on solar + storage). When Zuckerberg says hes willing to lose a few hundred billion dollars in pursuit of AGI Ill take his word for it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1974563717686980713)  2025-10-04T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"*25x. I think this post marks the bottom and $SPGI does well from here. Yeap were bottoms up and contrarian. Were buying $SPGI at 37x https://t.co/R1R8Nb0xnF Yeap were bottoms up and contrarian. Were buying $SPGI at 37x https://t.co/R1R8Nb0xnF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1975283869696815134)  2025-10-06T19:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@pitandhummus 24x forward FCF. Its quite rare that $SPGI trades at a higher FCF yield than the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1975293710842884226)  2025-10-06T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse Gotcha. Im long $EFX and $FICO so perfectly hedged but also somehow losing $ on both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1976023390172696805)  2025-10-08T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse You like $RKT here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1976688034939547777)  2025-10-10T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 $MSCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1979737847394644332)  2025-10-19T02:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Morgan Stanley on The Work Numbers (TWN) first-mover advantage in income verification $EFX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1893675828182933672)  2025-02-23T14:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The music labels continue to have significant negotiating leverage over Spotify $UMG $WMG $SPOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1893676561783480638)  2025-02-23T14:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@ItsAmeKaaay @returnoncap Every technological revolution is adopted by young people first. The market share shift hasnt shown up in the data yet because people over [--] still use Google (for now). Take a look at Morgan Stanleys annual intern survey for a preview of the future search landscape"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordo_capital/status/1894484826067030054)  2025-02-25T20:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@david_katunaric @JohnHuber72 @BillBrewsterTBB I agree with everything @JohnHuber72 said except for the conclusion. Compounders are rare but that doesnt mean you should avoid looking for them. The best returns come from businesses with durability (moat) + growth (secular tailwinds) + quality (ROIC). $AMZN $ASML $UMG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928116903014195369)  2025-05-29T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954991912425009303)  2025-08-11T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade. Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955687296491270264)  2025-08-13T17:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 3rd inning of this trade as Powell concedes risks to labor market risks of inflation. Tariffs inflation (one-time price adjustment). Fed funds rate should be 100bps lower. FICO + EFX have huge EPS upside once mortgage rates are 6%. $FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade. $FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1958908382192267704)  2025-08-22T15:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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