# ![@gordocap18 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1941511868.png) @gordocap18 dg

dg posts on X about $fico, $mco, ai, $spgi the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +642%
- [--] Month [-------] +3,542%
- [--] Months [-------] +187%
- [--] Year [-------] +49,179%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -35%
- [--] Month [--] +423%
- [--] Months [---] +15%
- [--] Year [---] +1,410%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +9.60%
- [--] Month [-----] +17%
- [--] Months [-----] +122%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,250%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1941511868/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1941511868/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  #2299 [finance](/list/finance)  #4162 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  29.7% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  7.92% [currencies](/list/currencies)  2.97% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  1.98% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.99% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.99% [countries](/list/countries)  0.99%

**Social topic influence**
[$fico](/topic/$fico) #15, [$mco](/topic/$mco) #10, [ai](/topic/ai) 11.88%, [$spgi](/topic/$spgi) #47, [growth](/topic/growth) 10.89%, [asml](/topic/asml) 10.89%, [$uber](/topic/$uber) 9.9%, [$asml](/topic/$asml) 9.9%, [$umg](/topic/$umg) 6.93%, [in the](/topic/in-the) #4880

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@acapitallp](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@stephanedubail](/creator/undefined) [@boiledeggcap](/creator/undefined) [@contrariancurse](/creator/undefined) [@evrgn11112231](/creator/undefined) [@stocknotebook](/creator/undefined) [@ddblakefischer](/creator/undefined) [@compoundpapi](/creator/undefined) [@latestgecapital](/creator/undefined) [@chairliftcap](/creator/undefined) [@macaronicapital](/creator/undefined) [@theshahrestani](/creator/undefined) [@themattharbaugh](/creator/undefined) [@lhamtil](/creator/undefined) [@johnhuber72](/creator/undefined) [@cmo040958](/creator/undefined) [@autumncapital](/creator/undefined) [@newsequities](/creator/undefined) [@ramrulez1](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Effect.AI (EFX)](/topic/$efx) [Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)](/topic/$rkt) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [COMPASS Pathways plc (CMPS)](/topic/$cmps) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)](/topic/$cp) [Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)](/topic/$lrcx) [Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)](/topic/$amat) [General Electric Company (GE)](/topic/$ge) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG)](/topic/$wmg) [Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)](/topic/$bldr) [Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)](/topic/$vrsk) [Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)](/topic/$whr) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Can someone who is knowledge on the subject please explain why the music labels $UMG $WMG latent pricing power thesis hasnt played out Is it a function of $SPOT gaining share and strengthening their negotiating leverage over the labels cc: @SleepwellCap @compoundpapi @RadnorCapital https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959305079363703075 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959305079363703075"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1959305079363703075)  2025-08-23T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$RKT $BLDR Housing reform plans to be announced by Trump early next year. Housing reform plans to be announced by Trump early next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2001477294033191101)  2025-12-18T02:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The issue with AI-disruption FUD is that it isnt falsifiable. The fund manager selling $MCO doesnt think AI will disrupt credit ratings just that AI keeps improving & theres no clear resolution to the stocks overhang. Meanwhile MCOs earnings will keep marching higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021370006416613521)  2026-02-10T23:45Z [----] followers, 22K engagements


"Im starting to think that a fancy version of autocomplete will not disrupt the most moated deeply embedded proprietary data firms that the entire global financial system runs on $SPGI $MCO $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2019125420147503415)  2026-02-04T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"At one point in pre-market trading today you could have bought $SPGI at 18.5x forward earnings. That valuation implies roughly 5% long-term EPS growth. The proliferation of passive index funds means pod shops now drive marginal pricing making markets increasingly inefficient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021301121415823626)  2026-02-10T19:11Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements


"A 4% coupon growing at 10% forever is a good investmentespecially in a world of massive government deficits and true inflation running at 4-5%. Hohns greatest insight was that undisruptable firms with pricing power are perpetually undervalued. $MCO $SPGI I remember when $MCO traded for a 7% FCF yield I remember when $MCO traded for a 7% FCF yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021371442202357811)  2026-02-10T23:51Z [----] followers, 23.5K engagements


"$UMG is the best risk/reward in the market right now IMO. The stock is now de-risked it owns irreplacable IP and music monetization is still early innings. Trades at same price as it did when it IPOd [--] years ago despite fundamental metrics all up 40-50%. $UMG now trades at 19x earnings just as monetization is inflecting & a US listing is imminent. Fears around AI disruption artists costs & Spotify gaining leverage are overblown IMO. Music has untapped pricing power & UMGs irreplaceable catalog gives it significant leverage. $UMG now trades at 19x earnings just as monetization is inflecting &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2017984888364838970)  2026-02-01T15:34Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements


"Firms with proprietary mission-critical data and strong network effects are well insulated from AI disruption. Ratings indexes insurance data & credit scores are deeply embedded in the financial system & would require complex coordination to disrupt. $FICO $SPGI $MCO $VRSK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018851314411897178)  2026-02-04T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It was all very scary and bearish until they started selling $SPGI and $MCO and I realized it wasnt serious and nothing was going to change The rolling AI blow ups sort of remind me of Trump tariffs. It was all very scary and bearish until he trotted out that fucking board and I realized it wasn't serious and nothing was going to change Brokers today is pretty fucking stupid The rolling AI blow ups sort of remind me of Trump tariffs. It was all very scary and bearish until he trotted out that fucking board and I realized it wasn't serious and nothing was going to change Brokers today is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021362441251324269)  2026-02-10T23:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RAMCOCAPITAL My best investments have been when I feel like Im taking crazy pills and I must be missing something"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021368284956725739)  2026-02-10T23:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$WHR great asymmetric risk/reward here. White House wants to unlock housing tax refunds hit in Q1 Fed cuts lag through effects peak in 2H26. Fed + Treasury working together = run it HOT. Pent up demand + coiled spring. Positioning is offsideswe are early cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2012569149944295809)  2026-01-17T16:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A framework for AI risk within data aggregation. $SPGI $MCO $FICO are all selling off on AI disruption concerns but they are protected due to proprietary data + strong network effects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018713785947619717)  2026-02-03T15:50Z [----] followers, 22.5K engagements


"$SPGI now trades at 23x forward earnings nearly the same forward multiple as the overall market. The last time SPGI traded at a forward PE below the overall market was [----]. The majority of SPGIs value is in its ratings/index biz & data biz is proprietary + mission-critical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2020320044123844870)  2026-02-08T02:13Z [----] followers, 22.8K engagements


"Morgan Stanley on $SPGI: As weve discussed previously we believe companies such as S&P Global are not only likely to be robust against the advanced AI threat but should actually be long-term beneficiaries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2020972976695542065)  2026-02-09T21:28Z [----] followers, 20.1K engagements


"Not to be hyperbolic but $SPGI $MCO right now might be the fattest pitch Ive seen since I started investing. The combo of quality factor being out of favor + AI disruption risk + pod shops dumping on earnings = an incredible buying opportunity for the long-term investor. hello - there are like [--] businesses in the world that grow without any meaningful capital reinvestment. you can buy them when they get cheap - thank you for coming to my ted talk hello - there are like [--] businesses in the world that grow without any meaningful capital reinvestment. you can buy them when they get cheap - thank"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2021214570308583879)  2026-02-10T13:28Z [----] followers, 96K engagements


"He bought $GOOG (the most well-known and widely followed company in the world) at $94/share (15x earnings) and is up 200% on it. You dont get extra points for difficulty in investing. Ackman shooting out of the gate with a strong early contender for funniest slide of the year https://t.co/uXIEKW3bNr Ackman shooting out of the gate with a strong early contender for funniest slide of the year https://t.co/uXIEKW3bNr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2022401915708203300)  2026-02-13T20:06Z [----] followers, 104.4K engagements


"@chat_SBC True but the share price has remained flat while the earnings power durability and market position of Uber has inflected higher. Id argue that is essentially a de-rating of the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2012583984715219250)  2026-01-17T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The best businesses are capital-light franchises that own the right to collect royalties on a growing asset base. $UBER is a royalty on human mobility and on-demand consumption. Uber = multi-service marketplace across ride-sharing food delivery and robotaxis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013023237836345778)  2026-01-18T22:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"White House posting Dow records Fed and Treasury becoming interlinked admin pushing for lower mortgage rates tax refunds about to hit deregulation ramping up most deflationary tech in historyonly path is to outgrow debt and debase the currency and youre bearish THE BEST IS YET TO COME. 📈 https://t.co/BjzPTbhcoQ THE BEST IS YET TO COME. 📈 https://t.co/BjzPTbhcoQ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013029385356427339)  2026-01-18T23:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ACapitalLP @stephane_dubail @BillAckman The issue is that UMG will not dual list unless they are forced by Pershing Square (would require Pershing to sell some shares). Ackman doesnt want to sell at a huge discount to intrinsic value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013272516660232482)  2026-01-19T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ACapitalLP @stephane_dubail @BillAckman Not following it that closely but is the delay really due to the government shutdown It should not take this long to list in the US. Management seems to be delaying it but I could be wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013275839572361528)  2026-01-19T15:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ACapitalLP @stephane_dubail @BillAckman Thanks. When is that from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013279169040261215)  2026-01-19T15:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ACapitalLP @BoiledEggCap @stephane_dubail @BillAckman He said it on Pershings Q4 call. He also said they dont understand why UMG is not buying back its shares and has not sold its Spotify stake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013304435728887889)  2026-01-19T17:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BoiledEggCap @ACapitalLP @stephane_dubail @BillAckman At the end of the day business quality always wins out. Id rather own a very good business with a very mediocre management team than vice versa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013304607183687898)  2026-01-19T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BoiledEggCap @ACapitalLP @stephane_dubail @BillAckman Id also argue that managements lack of focus on shareholders is embedded in the price. There are no good and bad horses only correctly and incorrectly priced ones. Low valuation cures a lot of ills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013305129080926715)  2026-01-19T17:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stephane_dubail @BoiledEggCap @ACapitalLP @BillAckman Its cheap now 18/share would be extremely cheap 15/share would be 25% of net worth level cheap. I think its worth 30/share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013306707464655163)  2026-01-19T17:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ACapitalLP @BoiledEggCap @stephane_dubail @BillAckman Where are you pulling these transcripts from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013307763263205846)  2026-01-19T17:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$UBER is cheap. I believe AV tech will commoditize & this favors marketplaces where margins accrue to the network. A full AV monopoly is unlikely due to: operational complexity & high capital requirements. Tesla/Waymo will be incentived to license/partner to reach critical mass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013759209783873787)  2026-01-20T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LateStgeCapital At the end of the day the fundamental truth is that AV players cant scale without $UBER. The combo of a fixed fleet with non-linear demand is impossible to get around. You can spend [-----] hours studying this and you always get back to the same answer: Uber will be the winner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013793803950317635)  2026-01-21T02:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LateStgeCapital But do you believe it is true I know the exact competitive structure of AVs is blurry but Ive thought about this a lot and its hard for me to imagine a future where the Tesla robotaxi monopoly wipes out Uber bear case comes true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013797458338369753)  2026-01-21T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse I think the better is question is not what should they do but rather what will they do. They are telling you everyday to buy cyclicals because they value winning the midterms over everything including the risk of the inflation genie slipping back out of the bottle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2013800188280705494)  2026-01-21T02:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$UMG Occasionally the voting machine gets detached from the weighing machine. For idiosyncratic reasons (AI fears forced sellers lack of liquidity) a great business gets cheap. In a world of uncertainty owning a royalty on music is a blissfully comfortable place to be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2014025682561495092)  2026-01-21T17:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A couple of insights: [--]. In a world of cheap AVs the technology becomes commoditized and value accrues to the marketplace or liquidity provider (e.g. Uber). [--]. In a world of infinite AI-generated content value accrues to the owners of unique and scarce IP (music labels)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2014044855933059402)  2026-01-21T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse The deeper analysis is Intellectual class = works in theory not in practice. Trump = works in practice not in theory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2014075920085131591)  2026-01-21T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap Why He wants to get the rate down to 3% which he (correctly) believes will reduce shelter inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2014819680037245029)  2026-01-23T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @ChairliftCap Where does the alpha exist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2015558531605205004)  2026-01-25T22:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @ChairliftCap Time arbitrage + signal vs. noise. In other words most stock debates are really just people with different horizons or people not understanding what is truly important. Saw it with ASML last year and see it with META right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2015562253672599878)  2026-01-25T23:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$UMG @ACapitalLP Narrative = AI risk losing leverage to Spotify + artists capital intensive (needs to spend $ to keep market share) management is not great. Reality = AI winner irreplaceable IP distributor labels have the leverage over DSPs music is too cheap & management is not great. @ACapitalLP Narrative = AI risk losing leverage to Spotify + artists capital intensive (needs to spend $ to keep market share) management is not great. Reality = AI winner irreplaceable IP distributor labels have the leverage over DSPs music is too cheap & management is not great"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2012554041453064297)  2026-01-17T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Sold my remaining shares of $ASML this week. Perhaps the most dominant + irreplaceable biz in the world but price now exceeds intrinsic value. Sell-side was max bearish (peak litho) when I was buying at $700/share last year & is now peak bullish. $ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost entirely disappeared. Shares are de-risked on [--] numbers and now trade at 20x [--] EPS. A bargain IMO. [----] EPS of $60 at 25x PE is a 15% IRR from here. https://t.co/Zq73dZEpgU $ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost entirely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2017639508565532924)  2026-01-31T16:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@k3ithmccullough Its puzzling why management wont repurchase shares. $UMG has similar economics & growth rate as $HLT but trades at a 35% discount because UMG doesnt retire shares and HLT does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2017653875482734974)  2026-01-31T17:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ACapitalLP The value of the back catalog reduces downside risk. Stock could fall further from here but Im focused on intrinsic value not price fluctuations. There are a lot of noisy idiosyncratic reasons why the stock is down which creates an opportunity for long-term investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2017989645791846722)  2026-02-01T15:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@dayetweets Agree on everything you wrote. Its important to understand the bear case to gain conviction on the bull case. The big three: Spotify is gaining leverage artists gaining leverage & AI will disrupt the labels. The first two have some truth to them but its in the price IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018000194910945414)  2026-02-01T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse Examples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018393402593653233)  2026-02-02T18:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$SPGI $MCO $FICO This is a good buying opportunity in my opinion. Their competitive positions have not materially changed over the last few months. Theyre pretty cheap right now. BUT THEY DONT REQUIRE MUCH INCREMENTAL CAPITAL TO GROW 😭 https://t.co/Sp4vZSkjpq BUT THEY DONT REQUIRE MUCH INCREMENTAL CAPITAL TO GROW 😭 https://t.co/Sp4vZSkjpq"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1983642515933712435)  2025-10-29T21:10Z [----] followers, 16.7K engagements


"$UBER + $FICO check the box on #3 and #5. Both are being penalized for narrative risk that wont hit intrinsic value. UBER = terminal value risk from AVs & FICO = regulatory risk from FHFA. UBER is a biz where growth runway + network effects (quality) is being under-appreciated. https://t.co/h7SVtGYccl https://t.co/h7SVtGYccl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2015085376583418055)  2026-01-24T15:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WarrenPies @smallwinz @EricBalchunas Do you think they can successfully get housing velocity going"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2016242664887173219)  2026-01-27T20:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar: Once a credit benchmark such as a $FICO score gets adopted by many stakeholders (banks investors regulators and consumers) it becomes difficult to displace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018852141058978285)  2026-02-04T01:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar: $FICO possesses aspects that are common in network effect businesses such as a winner take all dynamic a highly scalable business model and meaningful pricing power. We also note that credit bureau and credit score costs are relatively immaterial for lenders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018852431774548171)  2026-02-04T01:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Morningstar on $FICO: While the multiples may seem high we believe its warranted as there are many attractive aspects to FICOs business model. FICO has strong pricing power & the fixed-cost nature of its business means that incremental revenue flows to the bottom line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018853313752838579)  2026-02-04T01:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Dev Kantesaria on $FICO: FICO could increase its pricing by 10x and it would still be a high value to mortgage lenders relative to the cost. Its embedded role in credit decisions and entrenched workflows make it extremely hard for competitors to displace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018853972434641372)  2026-02-04T01:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Analysts highlight that $FICO still holds an 8590% share of the mortgage creditscoring market making it the primary language lenders use to assess credit risk. That sort of entrenched adoption is very hard for alternatives to overcome quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018854199753318556)  2026-02-04T01:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Because $FICO scores are widely used by lenders integrated into workflows and embedded in regulatory requirements switching to alternatives would require big operational changes. A high barrier even if competitors exist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018854309635424483)  2026-02-04T01:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Banks and financial institutions have built underwriting systems around $FICO scores over decades. Changing models would entail significant rebuilding of decision systems retraining and potential regulatory approvals a strong deterrent for many users"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2018854520118202656)  2026-02-04T01:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse What happens to uber"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/2019259367238127976)  2026-02-05T03:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @hvntting @WarwickSimons @galyoncap @billlee35760265 @resilience888 @NotoriousB1GGS @hissklarman @LearningLeard You can generate great returns from the simple insight that for a very rare subset of industries/companies terminal growth doesnt revert to nominal GDP. Chris Hohn talks about how $MCO has grown its top-line at 10% for [---] years. Some trees do grow to the sky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1924141491208769940)  2025-05-18T16:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@macaronicapital @TheShahrestani I agree. The Amazon example is good one. If the shift to AVs is akin to the shift to e-commerce then $UBER will be the Amazon equivalent (distribution network). $UBER is becoming a royalty on transportation that can grow with very little incremental capital required"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1936807342580064449)  2025-06-22T15:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$ASML $LRCX $AMAT Peak litho is peak priced in. ASMLs semi cap premium has almost entirely disappeared. Shares are de-risked on [--] numbers and now trade at 20x [--] EPS. A bargain IMO. [----] EPS of $60 at 25x PE is a 15% IRR from here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1947345648107274654)  2025-07-21T17:19Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"$EFX CEO on The Work Numbers pricing power"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1923763997930557581)  2025-05-17T15:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Chris Hohn on analyzing businesses: Very few things matter and most things dont matter at all. Sir Chris Hohn Podcast In Good Company Norges Bank Investment Mana. via @YouTube https://youtu.be/M01NZc2QlDkfeature=shared https://youtu.be/M01NZc2QlDkfeature=shared"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1923793502942482833)  2025-05-17T17:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GavinBel @Aureliusltd28 Its biotech. So hated right now but therere some interesting asymmetric opps. $CMPS releases its P3 readout for COMP360 in June. If the P3 readout is favorable $CMPS goes from $4 to $10 instantly IMO and then to $30 in the next [--] years w/ FDA approval + commercial launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1924119450795610418)  2025-05-18T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@psyopcapital It all comes back to barriers to entry ($AMZN $CP) and pricing power ($EFX $FICO $SPGI). The two qs to ask: if someone spent $10B to compete could they What would happen to volumes if the biz doubled prices overnight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1924127898878796054)  2025-05-18T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Chris Hohn: One important thing that Ive learned in my time in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption $CP $MSFT $GE $MCO $V"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1924158951626547504)  2025-05-18T17:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@themattharbaugh Where is this from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1924870339160424938)  2025-05-20T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Re-reading Pershing Squares thesis on $FNMA $FMCC and the last slide sums it up pretty well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1925332339996905708)  2025-05-21T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lhamtil Where is this from and which comapnies are the primary beneficiaries of this GE Safran"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926367259556982784)  2025-05-24T19:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"As $FNMA stock price rises the risk of dilution falls which causes the share price to rise which further reduces dilution risk. Market participants perceptions help to determine market prices and market prices in turn influence participants perceptions. - George Soros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926372429045043490)  2025-05-24T20:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Pershing Square owns 220m shares of $FNMA and $FMCC common stock. If his estimate of the IPO price ($30/share) is accurate his stake will be worth $6.6B. He waited [--] years for what could end up being the single most valuable hedge fund trade of all-time. It is almost always the case that the higher the stock price the greater the risk to shareholders. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F2) are rare examples of the phenomenon that the more their stock prices rise the lower the risk of investing in F2 and the greater their intrinsic It is almost always the case that the higher the stock price the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926379509026058659)  2025-05-24T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JohnHuber72 The best companies in the world are optically expensive (P/E) but if they can grow FCF above GDP for decades theyre actually quite cheap. $MCO has grow revenue 10%/year for [---] years. A cash flow that grows 10% in perpetuity is worth 50x earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926450929714208822)  2025-05-25T01:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@lhamtil Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926475223353774455)  2025-05-25T03:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WelfareCapLLC I think its just hard for people to come to terms with the fact that the widest moat in the world could come from a tech advantage. 99% of the time tech advantages are susceptible to disruption risk but with $ASML its just too complex and integrated into the semi supply chain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1926749212374413427)  2025-05-25T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BillAckman Bill does Pershing Square still believe that the Treasury is unlikely to exercise its warrants and dilute existing Fannie Mae common shareholders in the event of an IPO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1927506813513073032)  2025-05-27T23:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BillAckman Thanks Bill. I went long $FNMA at $1/share after coming across your presentation from the [----] Ira Sohn Conference. As you put it the best investments come from a deep understanding of the importance of asymmetry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1927778477064757601)  2025-05-28T17:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ContrarianCurse This is spot on. The one thing I would add is that technology (specifically AI) dramatically increases the upside risk. The right-tailed AI scenario is a combo of higher unemployment + higher government spending (UBI) to support white collar workers that have been replaced by AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1927794804328485012)  2025-05-28T18:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@realroseceline At 17x forward earnings the market is pricing 4.5% long-term earnings growth (assuming search has terminal value). I agree there is a risk of search fragmenting but thats already in the price. There are no good or bad horses just correctly or incorrectly priced ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1927921965647499553)  2025-05-29T02:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@david_katunaric @JohnHuber72 @BillBrewsterTBB I agree with everything @JohnHuber72 said except for the conclusion. Compounders are rare but that doesnt mean you should avoid looking for them. The best returns come from businesses with durability (moat) + growth (secular tailwinds) + quality (ROIC). $AMZN $ASML $UMG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928116903014195369)  2025-05-29T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@el_galfi @Carl_T_Therapy If the June P3 readout is favorable $CMPS goes from $4 to $6 instantly IMO and then to $20 in the next [--] years w/ FDA approval + commercial launch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928167162352378161)  2025-05-29T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PortPower96 One of them will generate hundreds of billions of $ in FCF over the next decade. The other will generate no cash flows and has no financial value other than your ability to sell it to someone else at a higher price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928172069650395554)  2025-05-29T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@peter_mantas Very weird that $CMPS has not run-up in anticipation of the P3 read out next month. Im long given the attractive risk/reward + my gut instinct is that data will be favorable given centuries of anecdotal evidence that psilocybin is efficacious for depression"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928207030411526233)  2025-05-29T21:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"BNP Paribas on $ASML: We believe litho intensity fears are overblown. Efficiency gains from pattern shaping backside power and tools reuse lead only to marginal rather than transformational game and were always part of the EUV roadmap - there is simply no alternative to EUV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928566987292098836)  2025-05-30T21:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC @themattharbaugh Irreplaceable physical assets - $CP $AMZN IP - $ASML $UMG Installed base/scale/switching costs - $MSFT Network effects - $MCO $EFX $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1928922566778921041)  2025-05-31T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@lithos_graphein Theyre correct about litho % declining but total $ amount will rise. The big mistake is focusing on quarterly orders/earnings rather than long-term competitive dynamics and secular growth. $ASML"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1930677014736032048)  2025-06-05T17:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@InvestmentTalkk Everything that acc matters in investing is qualitative. The financials arent gonna tell you how wide the moat is. The data (ROIC margins growth) are a function of competitive dynamics and barriers to entry not the other way around"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1935431440658825518)  2025-06-18T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheShahrestani @macaronicapital Good point. The terminal value fears are just not convincing to me. I think people sell instinctively on perceived uncertainty around AVs (disruption risk) without actually doing the work on $UBER network effects/competitive position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1936808648757449127)  2025-06-22T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 Its all classic FUD. No complaints from me as it gave me the opp to pile into the widest moat monopoly in the world at 10x t+5 earnings a few months ago. Sometimes there really are dollar bills (15% IRRs) just sitting there waiting to be picked up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1940968595586183530)  2025-07-04T02:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@compoundpapi $RKT = fully digital vertically integrated mortgage lender with a cost edge strong brand and industry-leading retention. Mortgages are a coiled spring + Redfin/Mr. Cooper deals = dominant scale & market share gains when mortgage volumes rebound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1941915667873116596)  2025-07-06T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@evrgn11112231 @jnconkle @nuancerocket Peak litho is priced in. Multiple spread with peers has compressed and sell-side is max bearish on $ASML relative to other semi caps. I think $750/share is a 15% IRR over the next [--] years. 27x earnings for mid-teen normalized earnings growth is good value IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1945926198304890885)  2025-07-17T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CompTortoise Best is when you find a stock with high ROIC like $ASML in an industry where underlying growth never reverts back to GDP growth (Semis). Every sell-side model for $ASML uses terminal growth of 3% but semis (demand for compute) could outgrow GDP for a very long time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1946611524660863215)  2025-07-19T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1954991912425009303)  2025-08-11T19:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade. Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT Best trade now: long mortgage volume recovery. Job markets stalling Fed cuts in Sept. Tariffs inflation. Neutral rate is unchanged post-COVID. Yields mortgage spreads . Huge pent-up demand for 6% mortgages. Big winners: $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1955687296491270264)  2025-08-13T17:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO now trades at 36x [----] earnings for a biz that can reasonably grow FCF 20%+ for a very long time. Regulatory + competitive concerns are overblown as FHFA cant materially impact pricing & FICO benefits from a winner-take-all market structure with powerful network effects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956020952505946589)  2025-08-14T15:51Z [----] followers, 35.8K engagements


"Raymond James summing up my $FICO thesis: [--]. Tri-merge requirement is bullish for FICO. [--]. FICO is industry standard with network effects + little incentive for lenders to switch to VantageScore. [--]. FHFA cant regulate FICO pricing & cant force GSEs to stop using FICO scores"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1956400862458216847)  2025-08-15T17:01Z [----] followers, 69.1K engagements


"$FICO pricing strategy remains unchanged. FICO indicated that pricing increases for the next year will be similar to recent years. 37x forward earnings for 20%+ FCF/share growth is quite attractive IMO. Market is wrong on regulatory/competitive risks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1957112670303158544)  2025-08-17T16:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 3rd inning of this trade as Powell concedes risks to labor market risks of inflation. Tariffs inflation (one-time price adjustment). Fed funds rate should be 100bps lower. FICO + EFX have huge EPS upside once mortgage rates are 6%. $FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade. $FICO $EFX $RKT still in the 2nd inning of this trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1958908382192267704)  2025-08-22T15:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@returnoncap I have yet to hear a FICO bear explain why any lender would switch to VantageScore. Everyone who has actually done the work comes to the same conclusion: FICOs competitive position has not changed. Its all classic FUD and now they can buyback their stock at attractive prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1959000896731328761)  2025-08-22T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FICO rose 6% today and is up 10% this week as the market is gradually recognizing what Ive been saying for weeks: FICOs competitive position in scoring remains unchanged. VantageScore will not gain market share and the FHFA has no authority to regulate FICOs pricing. The stock was overpriced late last year but briefly became reasonably valued around $1300 per share. Looking ahead I believe earnings growth could accelerate as mortgage volumes recover and as FICO begins to raise prices in autos"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1961190190220992743)  2025-08-28T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My favorite long idea right now is $TER. The biz is set up for asymmetric upside as semiconductor and industrial markets appear to be bottoming while the robotics division is positioned for an inflection in growth with expanding collaborative robot adoption and large-scale deployments tied to Amazons automation push. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962166419786776679 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962166419786776679"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1962166419786776679)  2025-08-31T14:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"New note from Goldman Sachs on $ASML moat: Chinas lithography is [--] years behind ASML. With a monopoly on EUV ASML is the tollbooth that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and NVIDIA must pay to build advanced AI chips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1962561898890613091)  2025-09-01T17:03Z [----] followers, 40.1K engagements


"$FNMA & $FMCC are rare examples of positive reflexivity: the higher the stock price the lower the risk which in turn pushes the price higher. Each step toward exiting conservatorship raises the share price and further reduces dilution risk for common shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1963256498382848055)  2025-09-03T15:03Z [----] followers, 14.4K engagements


"@Citrini7 on how the Trump administration can lower mortgage rates via the GSEs. If hes correct this would be very bullish for $FNMA $FMCC $EFX $FICO $RKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1963393418513846759)  2025-09-04T00:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Morningstar on $HON moat: The business has a large installed base with high regulatory hurdles and complex technical know-how. The aerospace spin-off next year should create substantial value (+25% to +50%). This could be $GE all over again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1964387553101898055)  2025-09-06T17:57Z [----] followers, 22.1K engagements


"Morningstar estimates that $MCO and $SPGI have raised prices by 34% annually over the past few decades. The pricing power of CRAs stems from strong network effects the interest savings they enable and the relatively low cost of ratings compared to total underwriting expenses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gordocap18/status/1971386867670188441)  2025-09-26T01:30Z [----] followers, 27.9K engagements

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