# ![@geoffreykarren Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::2737522938.png) @geoffreykarren Geoffrey Karren

Geoffrey Karren posts on X about china, inflation, fed, debt the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2737522938/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2737522938/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -33%
- [--] Month [------] +76%
- [--] Months [------] +35%
- [--] Year [-------] +76%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2737522938/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2737522938/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -85%
- [--] Months [---] -20%
- [--] Year [---] +27%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::2737522938/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2737522938/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -0.42%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.70%
- [--] Months [-----] +13%
- [--] Year [-----] +89%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2737522938/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::2737522938/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [countries](/list/countries)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [us election](/list/us-election)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china), [inflation](/topic/inflation) #1767, [fed](/topic/fed), [debt](/topic/debt), [deflation](/topic/deflation), [brazil](/topic/brazil), [in the](/topic/in-the), [argentina](/topic/argentina), [canada](/topic/canada), [stocks](/topic/stocks)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@bubleqe](/creator/undefined) [@paulsaladino7](/creator/undefined) [@jaredkubin](/creator/undefined) [@nuggetcapital](/creator/undefined) [@teddygambino](/creator/undefined) [@revcap](/creator/undefined) [@zmansenrgybrain](/creator/undefined) [@tmtlongshort](/creator/undefined) [@irajoseph](/creator/undefined) [@celsiusenergyfm](/creator/undefined) [@roryjohnston](/creator/undefined) [@jukanlosreve](/creator/undefined) [@warrenpies](/creator/undefined) [@vtchakarova](/creator/undefined) [@cyclesfan](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@tedcross](/creator/undefined) [@aeberman12](/creator/undefined) [@assettraveller](/creator/undefined) [@johnarnoldfndtn](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [EQT, Corp. (EQT)](/topic/$eqt) [Alien Base (ALB)](/topic/$alb) [Windoge98 (EXE)](/topic/$exe) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT)](/topic/$vrt) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Copiosa Coin (COP2)](/topic/$cop) [Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM)](/topic/$sqm) [Minswap (MIN)](/topic/$min) [Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)](/topic/$crk) [Range Resources, Corp. (RRC)](/topic/$rrc) [Partisia Blockchain (MPC)](/topic/$mpc) [Frontline Ltd. (FRO)](/topic/$fro) [Ciena Corporation (CIEN)](/topic/$cien) [Venture Global, Inc (VG)](/topic/$vg) [Pulsechain (PLS)](/topic/$pls) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)](/topic/$vlo) [GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)](/topic/$gev) [Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)](/topic/$meg) [Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)](/topic/$gpor) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@BillAckman Occam's Razor is something like this: Prighozin is a nut job he totally flipped out and filmed a tirade so Putin says arrest him. Then Lukashenko gave both sides an off ramp and they both took it. Not planned just really chaotic. Need to get a sealed train in there ASAP lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1672738222659751936)  2023-06-24T22:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ira_joseph Couldn't agree more Ira Looking out to 2025-26 I'm uncertain US (and Canada) upstream will be able to increase NG prod enough to keep pace w/ all the new LNG terminals coming online. All that new demand will cause natural gas prices to rise Thoughts #natgas #eft #lng"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1675510743951896576)  2023-07-02T14:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@jimiuorio It was both. Japan was not ready to agree unconditional surrender AND it was a show of force to Stalin/Soviets about the lethality of unconventional weapons that US possessed but Soviets didnt. Deterrence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1688750035021041664)  2023-08-08T03:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@outlawtorn_eth @TripleNetInvest (who are looking to reduce weight) expands from 1mm to 2mm to 10mm and eventually 50mm its a massive massive existential threat to wine makers particularly over-leveraged ones. Every person Ive spoken with on this class of prescription drugs has dropped wine altogether 3/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1689263031971426304)  2023-08-09T13:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@outlawtorn_eth @TripleNetInvest Unmitigated disaster for wine industry; these are the prime customers. Young people are disinterested in wine to begin w/. But older wealthier consumers are now dropping wine in droves and its only going to intensify as legal prescriptions proliferate #wine $nvo $lly $napa 4/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1689280078566313984)  2023-08-09T14:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MDorenfeldNY @JohnArnoldFndtn Whats the oversupplied or even adequately supplied thesis from [----] and on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1689395085597880320)  2023-08-09T21:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AndreasSteno The Chinese real estate market is collapsing. Its 25% of GDP is the main asset for most Chinese HHs and will bankrupt LGFVs which rely on property sales and taxes. Hardly being discussed and it stuns me. Im old enough to remember when Evergrande sent tremors thru mkts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1690781937957511168)  2023-08-13T17:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Brad_Setser Devaluation exports deflation to ROW right That might be helpful considering global inflation Thanks for the reply. I think Chinese domestic confidence is shot already theyre going to need fiscal transfers to HHs to help sentiment IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1691437073851670528)  2023-08-15T13:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@carlquintanilla Exporting deflation reminds me of [----] FX crisis. Fed cut rates 3x in response policy error (in retrospect). Interestingly Eurodollar already anticipating similar Fed response. Will Fed follow markets or keep real rates high Interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1692739867120222346)  2023-08-19T03:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BlakeFox7 @AndreasSteno Well I wasnt referring to Fed QE but rather PBOC selling of UST to defend CNY from going higher (lower). But yes its kind of a double QT as net selling further increases supply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1693974316164235499)  2023-08-22T13:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SamanthaLaDuc Directed cash and H100s implies CoreWeave is a related party. And securitizing a multi-billion loan by using the products purchased as collateral it seems like theyd need a second layer of guarantor. Chips have price vol obviously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1695097072352170120)  2023-08-25T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @TourmalineOil Got it. Theres a large supply gap coming but getting more Montney molecules to Gulf Coast will require large additions to midstream infrastructure. Im skeptical that government/courts in Canada will allow new fossil fuel infrastructure but Im no expert in Canadian regulatory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1697768728073584695)  2023-09-02T00:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ira_joseph @GastechEvent So I poked around w/ some folks on this topic. It seems to me developed Asia plus a few emerging Asia (Vietnam India) are going to want C-to-G sub UNLESS cost is really high. Europe same. Thats a ton of demand. Absent a global macro shock I think huge demand for med cost gas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1700253636184728013)  2023-09-08T21:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ira_joseph @GastechEvent Thank you. You do a great job on this platform always thoughtful tweets One thing you say slim pickings in Europe but last winter they massively bought cargoes on the spot market and will need lots of cargoes going forward. Thats real demand. They may not be signing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1700266410898059650)  2023-09-08T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Eyesandvibes We dont just need him playing we need him playing CAM in a 4-2-3-1. Hes the most creative attacking midfielder in the pool. That means Gregg not only smooths over things but makes him the centerpiece of the US attack in a new formation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1700357249947058497)  2023-09-09T03:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mnicoletos The size of the Chinese economy was always an accounting fiction based on a currency that is artificially propped up. If China were to open their capital account the CNY would fall dramatically (capital flight) and their economy would be half as big overnight. @Jkylebass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1701603243498098800)  2023-09-12T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Birdies_Barolo @LouMannheim87 @SullyCNBC I would add that adding batteries/storage to solar (which by definition isnt producing energy [--] hours/day) greatly increases total costs. Also consider a hypothetical: solar is 50-60% of total power gen and then theres a winter cloud system over Texas for [--] days. Catastrophic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1701837928086045104)  2023-09-13T05:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PaulSaladino7 Its annoying to me these production charts never include a smoothing mechanism like a 100d MA. So easy to add and would eliminate noise from maintenance issues etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1702079604834591006)  2023-09-13T21:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MPelletierCIO Trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus (globally) pushed asset prices much higher. Asset inflation since [----]. Whats unique this time is that inflation finally showed up in non-asset prices too like food services and basically everything. Milton Friedman called it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1702185656561373601)  2023-09-14T05:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dorfman_p Astounding. China responsible for 70% of announced coal capacity additions. Uzbekistan Zimbabwe Zambia among their esteemed cohorts. US and UK have [--] announced/planned coal plants. Numerous coal retirements planned. Im glad youre so impressed by PRC. Pretty neat country lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1702195889669128557)  2023-09-14T05:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TheMattCochrane Fundamental PM at a large global macro hedge fund. I dug into $MCO $SPGI as possible shorts for role in GFC. Learned they were gov sanctioned duopoly w/ nearly unlimited pricing power. We loaded up on both. Both compounded. Got to know the MCO CFO well. She was such a badass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1702213554550784096)  2023-09-14T06:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@drcross @AkshatRathi Lol its even worse than I thought. The average annual number of daily sun hours in the UK has remained above [--] hours per day since [----] but has not increased above 5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1702241617145741467)  2023-09-14T08:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SantiagoAuFund Brent If its rates up/NAV down shouldnt there have been a NAV spike when rates collapsed with Covid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1703615406710436006)  2023-09-18T03:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited 3-month annualized core PCE is barely above target and is lower than 6-month annualized and lower still than YoY. I understand your premise is: its premature to pause. But US economy is so much more financialized than it was in 80s inflation can turn deflationary very quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1704478208597590266)  2023-09-20T12:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@visegrad24 In Aug [----] prior to the non-aggression pact there was the GermanSoviet Trade and Credit Agreement which allowed Nazi Germany to purchase an incredible amount of war material. Those resource inputs were vital when Germany invaded France Holland Norway Denmark etc in 1940"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1704483517273694268)  2023-09-20T13:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StangelandShawn @lisaabramowicz1 Well equities panicked because yields broke out to fresh 16-year highs in some parts of the curve. IMO the selloff was reasonable based on the inverse relationship between yields and risk assets especially growth. But NDX is still +26% YTD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1705351451080523882)  2023-09-22T22:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@profplum99 Plus there are many zombie companies out there where the interest on their floating rate debt exceeds EBITDA particularly among sponsor-owned corporations. So glad the private credit guys mark-to-market lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1705355144576344235)  2023-09-22T22:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MichaelAArouet @ValuablOfficial @MichaelAArouet Do you have a nominal price change chart How much is this attributable to high inflation (following the invasion of Ukraine last year)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1706679566625063318)  2023-09-26T14:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@USSoccersBot Noel Buck over Benja Cremaschi but the rest looks good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1708560662086234292)  2023-10-01T19:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LukeGromen Would you mind explaining the paradox why growing fiscal deficits strengthen DXY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1708576110299251129)  2023-10-01T20:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Swordfishv44183 10s/3m steepening of 98bps requires intervention/YCC It was .1 in [----] (average) now 108bps. Doesnt seem that significant. What am I missing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1708703122032578974)  2023-10-02T04:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@WarrenPies Big cap tech has virtually no rate sensitivity; so it makes sense that thats the new defensive sector. Higher rates are a wrecking ball. Its been [--] years since the last secular bear market in fixed income so people are getting used to changed correlations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1709044764568604827)  2023-10-03T03:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@JeremyMcCreaCFA And yet oil rigs coming down (per $BKR) with WTI prices going up (until this week). Actions dont meet the words"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1709687514305638470)  2023-10-04T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dana_marlane Today felt a lot like October [--] [----] when a 8.2% CPI print sent ES deeply red in the pre only to end the day +2.6%. That was the ES low. If we have a flat or positive week next week I think the chances of a year end beta chase improve considerably. JMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1710479701947670613)  2023-10-07T02:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Econ_Parker Agree. AHE is the tell. Has moderated significantly indicating that the quality of jobs is deteriorating. 3-mo annualized is 3.36%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1711738368781082730)  2023-10-10T13:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dana_marlane Friday (NFP) felt like October [--] [----] when ES was deeply red in the pre (CPI) only to finish strongly green. That day was the [----] low. In my experience reversals start w/ a bang then junk starts flying (covering) then CTAs join in. Feels like last year about a week early"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1711923448744951817)  2023-10-11T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BSAKSuited @pickeringenergy Permian close to plateauing (couple of years at most); already seeing declining well productivity (so higher BEs). As $PXD is a single basin operator Sheffield wanted to sell before geology concerns set in. A diversified operator like $XOM gains reserves and synergies. Win-win"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1712242366017679784)  2023-10-11T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SHOPGod2 @LynAldenContact Strategic. Relentlessly focus on lowering costs then pass along to customers and keep competitors like $F and $GM sub-scale/unprofitable in EVs. Legacy OEM profits will be used to subsidize EV losses until they quit (or B/k). I believe this was always the LT strategy for $TSLA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1712297551628742910)  2023-10-12T02:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tedcross @Josh_Young_1 Thanks great chart Always appreciate the info you put out into the Twitter-sphere. Do you have a chart for projected output for Permian-only assuming prices stay in high 70s/low 80s (at any price) that you can share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1712561480665809029)  2023-10-12T20:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ManagerTactical From here to [----] build the national team around Gio as a creative [--] feeding precise passes into space for Balogun. Pulisic/Weah/Koleosho as wingers. Double pivot of Musah and McKennie/Adams. MMA midfield was good for defense but terrible for creating goal opportunities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1713231910485582226)  2023-10-14T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AzizSunderji @Markzandi Doubtful IMO. Fed is well aware lagging shelter is a huge tailwind to lower core readings especially when you make adjustments like 3m annualized. The Fed will use declining core CPI to validate no additional hikes. Well one more perhaps. One more would be for optics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1713727046063718400)  2023-10-16T01:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BubleQe Closed-end bond funds selling at deep discounts to NAV ☠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1714691234449813796)  2023-10-18T17:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BubleQe As someone who used to short (professionally) $DB and $CS for years (literally) be cautious with bottom fishing sick banks. Theres likely hidden toxic stuff on the asset side of the b/s. Then mix in high and rising interest expense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1715497444622864831)  2023-10-20T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pablosventures @zerohedge Wont fail but $BAC has serious Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse vibes. Apparently the trade is short banks with their countrys name in their corporate name"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1716291350872592722)  2023-10-23T03:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Working to avoid a Fisherian debt deflation scenario. Best case = Japan. Base case = Venezuela. Worst case = North Korea Debtors distress sell assets to raise money for repaying debt; repayment in aggregate causes a contraction in the money supply and price level deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1716318360802058430)  2023-10-23T04:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Peter_Strachan @aeberman12 @PeterZeihan Art Im w/ Peter here. With the inflation in OFS/other inputs and with GOR 📈 I think drillers need a significantly higher number to be cash flow breakeven. Theyre laying down rigs and deferring completions at $45.$65 CF breakeven sounds closer. Wellhead $62 at $65. $65-70"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1716561490277244997)  2023-10-23T21:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@TeddyGambino I think $SWN should only sell if its an incredible premium from $CHK. SWN have a tiger by the tail. Let the thesis play out. An all-stock acquisition/merger-of-equals scenario is such a wildly uninspiring proposition. Sitting right on the precipice of 📈"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1716657509325254860)  2023-10-24T03:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TripleNetInvest Im surprised its not jingle mail. Do you know what the cap structure was Must have been 50% equity. Or all equity. Ouch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1719182438763798904)  2023-10-31T02:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MPelletierCIO 1980s redux. Saudis cut and cut and cut to defend price. And then they grow frustrated ramp production and annihilate high cost producers. Has happened before. Theyre the low cost producer. Asymmetric downside for producers as long as spare capacity is high (and rising) IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1726062172604666064)  2023-11-19T02:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JayaBajpai17 @JohnArnoldFndtn I worked on the sale of a minority stake in Golden State in [----]. The equity then was $300mm the debt was $150mm for an EV of $450mm. The equity valuation today is nearly $7 billion. Back in [----] the business was cash flow breakeven. Id imagine its not much better today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1728537636661600608)  2023-11-25T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ianbremmer Ian to be clear this chart only happens because the Saudis are conceding market share to support price which hugely benefits the USA. Both share and price. Thank you MBS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1730974932740591637)  2023-12-02T15:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes The massive appreciation in home values since the late-70s has been breathtaking. But the wealth creation has largely accrued to a single generation who are now retired. It was a form of generational theft as younger cohorts now priced out. Not sure its repeatable. Demographics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1733883686398112067)  2023-12-10T16:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@chigrl Brilliant another policy designed by western global elites that will quietly cause higher food and energy prices for the working poor in their countries. How benevolent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1733889891564757482)  2023-12-10T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DianeSwonk By now I think everyone discounts the dot plot. What is important was the pivot in messaging you cited; that high real rates could necessitate rate cuts (even in the absence of a serious dislocation in risk assets and/or major increase in UE). That was very significant IMO. Pivot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1733896746043130226)  2023-12-10T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LNG_Investor_ Why would $NEXT be able to extract significantly higher economic rents on trains 4-5 vs 1-3 Anyone know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1733909459465019735)  2023-12-10T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LizAnnSonders Extraordinary. Headline from 12% to 1%. It feels like future risks are now slightly weighted toward actual deflation vs too high inflation. Hence why Fed governors are openly discussing cuts (w/ real rates rising). And why risk assets are approaching ATHs incl DAX and CAC 40"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1734978518419972532)  2023-12-13T16:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@jackmon23472449 @dampedspring We live in a world of trends and the trend for disinflation is lower. They dont want to risk that inflation tips into outright deflation; so theyll likely cut. Unless something changes. I dont make the rules"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1735048195624030559)  2023-12-13T21:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Im on the other side. This isnt the 1970s economy. Different demographics too. I think the bigger question is what is monetary policy if CPI turns negative Oil and natural gas are crashing. China PPI is deeply negative. US PPI is .9%. And CPI ex shelter below 2% for months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1735063145520247189)  2023-12-13T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BenBrey In 2008-09 there was a true credit event where the left side of the b/s declined enough that all banks were technically insolvent. Whats the comparable stress point today I honestly cant see one. Also in [----] the Fed hadnt experimented w/ LSAP. Different playbook today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1735161813992608092)  2023-12-14T04:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@elerianm I think the Fed is now concerned with the possibility of outright deflation. They decided to get out in front in case bad goes to worse. They communicated that its a 2-way decision process now. In doing so they pushed rates down 100bps w/out actually cutting rates. Nifty trick"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1737256591723020532)  2023-12-19T23:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HeYiyong @AnalysisOp Can I ask whats the counter argument to demand for LNG will only go up for decades If LNG supply outstrips demand prices will come down (at TTF and JKM) and end demand up (elasticity). We know this because global gas demand only increases. Coal had been sideways for a decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1737683016280105413)  2023-12-21T03:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HiddenOG Namibia Suriname Guyana Argentina (Vaca Muerta) Uruguay Brazil. Global oil output is about to go vertical. There are some incredibly prolific new plays that will come online by late 2020s just as/after US shale goes into decline (absent a new tech). World is awash in oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1737693130638709061)  2023-12-21T04:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@michaelxpettis @SCMPNews Siding with USA Canada Sweden Norway Germany France Australia Japan Korea Italy New Zealand and the rest of the developed world over BRICS. Sounds smart to me. BRICS is for Venezuela"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1737700524684910657)  2023-12-21T05:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@levenson_david @AndreasSteno This is my mental model as well David. Though I think the Fed suspected it and so they had to proactively warn Eurodollar markets that its officially a 2-way market. They fear deflation much more than inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1737706254871765443)  2023-12-21T05:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CelestialWraith @RyanakaFlats @wabuffo This exactly. Trends don't typically stop. Theyre very worried that disinflation could tip into outright deflation. Which then risks a #liquiditytrap. Exactly what they fear the most. Good post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1738047460625490006)  2023-12-22T04:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@kurtsaltrichter If theres a CPI print thats [--] or negative in Q1 but with no obvious downturn in the economy and/or markets/financial plumbing issues those 1H cuts are likely. Remember IPs in Europe are negative and China PPI is negative. Theres a whiff of global deflation in the air. JMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1738734654931554500)  2023-12-24T01:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@allstarcharts @samaky10 Thats $400 inflation adjusted lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1739031737412592080)  2023-12-24T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HeYiyong @AllthingsLNG Was asked about the possibility of a LNG glut. My response was: A rightward shift in supply would lead to lower prices and increased demand (more affordable). As in the graph below There will be C-to-G switching if LNG prices fall significantly esp in OECD countries. Thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740542409933717850)  2023-12-29T01:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@vtchakarova GDP in China today is an illusion distorted by a closed currency and a managed exchange rate. If PRC allowed the currency to freely float tomorrow CNY would be -50% with massive capital outflows. Which is why they cant do it. The RE sector would literally detonate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1740575314194084237)  2023-12-29T03:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@aeberman12 Namibia Guyana Suriname Argentina (onshore tight oil and offshore) Uruguay Brazil. These non-OPEC countries (well not Brazil which is only nominally part of the cartel) among others will take up the growth baton just as US LTO production plateaus in next few years. #OOTT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1741543634082951665)  2023-12-31T19:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@elmston @aphillip712 @Eyesandvibes Hmmmm. Pulisic grew up in Hershey PA and developed in the US then went to Europe at [--]. Endrick signed with Real Madrid at [--]. Is Endrick a product of Brazil or Europe Of course hes a product of Brazil just as Puli is a product of the American youth system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1741651165518127223)  2024-01-01T02:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyPeddler I think we de-invert but the real question is bear or bull steepener Im in the long rates camp deflation incoming. So I think bull steepener with the short end falling more quickly than the long end. Well see. I think investor consensus is bearish duration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1741949092052549636)  2024-01-01T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@factsonlyfacts_ @vtchakarova Yes and China GDP in dollar terms is overstated by 100%. CNY would be cut in half (along with USD-denominated GDP) if they were to open their capital account (which they cant do). PRC GDP in USD terms is a fake number"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1742002111733477425)  2024-01-02T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@josephwang @josephwang With China PPI negative European IPs and PMIs negative Im skeptical of the re-ignition of inflation narrative. Theres a whiff of global deflation in the air. The Feds Multivariate Core Trend which measures trend persistence in core PCE was lower yet again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742241179637555585)  2024-01-02T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Will_DeCotiis Every legacy content distribution company envied Netflixs valuation and thought why dont we immolate billions in shareholder money and see our market cap go up 10x Turns out they all got punished. NFLX won. Without scale the choice is pretty simple: merge or fold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1742323995448643780)  2024-01-02T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Will_DeCotiis Good response but $DIS drank the kool-aid too and now theyre realizing we cant keep blowing up our OIBDA in search of a business model (subscriptions) that undermines our legacy business and valuation. $AMZN subsidizes content losses w/ Prime fees. Theres no way to separate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1742325964624023702)  2024-01-02T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@chai_asc Really hope CCV can get a transfer to a side like Bournemouth but anywhere in the Bundesliga would be terrific too. He just turned [--] a few days ago so hes entering his prime years for a center half"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1742597458482561307)  2024-01-03T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@jsblokland Middle Income Trap. Decadal output has rocketed as Chinese moved from farms to factories (industrialization). But the easy part is over. Very few countries have successfully made the leap from middle income to high income (i.e. globally competitive in high value-add sectors)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743052199377436792)  2024-01-04T23:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@GringoInvesting The LNG glut is silly. One US LNG will replace Russian LNG both existing and planned (Arctic LNG 2) as new US export facilities come online. Two OECD countries desire replacing coal with LNG in order to decarbonize. Three non-OECD Asia will increase imports inline w/ GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1743255029166039472)  2024-01-05T12:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RobinBrooksIIF @RobinBrooksIIF is Argentina capable of creating a massive agricultural trade surplus like Brazil has If not why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744120991536783590)  2024-01-07T22:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Great article Ira. Reviving gas production in countries w underutilized LNG capacity should be a policy priority for host governments. I think total $LNG global output ex-US + ex-Qatar will continue to decline net-net. Capital starvation inefficiency geology equip issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1744793398043976104)  2024-01-09T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Many export facilities as noted in your study are now decades-old infrastructure and often the fields supplying them have suffered from underinvestment. Legacy $LNG declines will partially offset new supply; so net new supply will be significantly less than gross supply add"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1744796970651369905)  2024-01-09T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@biancoresearch The trajectory of real rates wow. What if Core PCE goes negative Not possible Of course it is. China factory gate PPI is strongly negative. European IPs negative. US final demand PPI MoM negative [--] straight months. The issue is future real rates not todays"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1746331302452760662)  2024-01-14T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MichaelAArouet The Euro was designed to increase German exports and thus abet German employment. It was never a precursor to political union. Further EU subsidies are designed to stimulate sales of German autos in southern European EC countries. Italy paid off via ECB monetization of deficits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1746333685891101170)  2024-01-14T00:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DryBulkETF Interestingly deflation may soon become the primary concern of CBs not inflation. So perversely higher shipping costs may become a (welcome) headwind to lower prices. At least thats how your friendly local central banker thinks about it. 🙃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1746372091996196995)  2024-01-14T03:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@George45740686 @nope_its_lily Agreed. For instance US industrials trade at a premium to European industrials for justifiable reasons. Theyre better run (shareholder return is paramount) and dont face the prospect of government fiat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1746383767306928561)  2024-01-14T04:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@michaelxpettis A problem for decades. I worked for ASIMCO (private equity) in the 90s. Provincial governments forced local banks to lend to local SOEs that should have been allowed to go bankrupt. Why To preserve employment. But small sub-scale producers prevented market rationalization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1746576215471693844)  2024-01-14T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RobinBrooksIIF I can never tell if youre winding up people Robin. Ive been to Frankfurt (the am Main one lol) and its well behind other European financial centers for pure aesthetics including London Paris Copenhagen Stockholm Milan and Madrid. And Venice is the Venice of Europe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1747375747717538149)  2024-01-16T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@trader_mtg @FedGuy12 Yes exactly agree. Its a tool of fiscal dominance. Force/incent banks to hold Treasuries to keep rates (and deficits) in check"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1747669860820128137)  2024-01-17T17:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@petermerelis @biancoresearch Exactly. All upcoming CPI and PCE prints ex-shelter (which everyone understands is heavily lagging) will price back higher probabilities of cuts. Deflation is the concern now not inflation. Warning signs are flashing at the Eccles building"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1747767298214285793)  2024-01-17T23:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@rev_cap @WarrenPies Imported deflation is more than offsetting sources of domestic inflation including wealth effects and significantly easier financial conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1747769657598345722)  2024-01-17T23:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@texasrunnerDFW @1CoastalJournal The quiet part out loud would be that the new higher level of prices is permanent. The Fed will not allow prices to return to [----] levels or even [----] levels because that would entail deflation and deflation is simply unacceptable to these government bureaucrats. #Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1748025633731678500)  2024-01-18T16:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@mswmicuyalj @RealTimeWWII Pretty simple: The mathematics of attrition. Even if Red Army casualties were 20:1 eventually the Finns would run out of soldiers. Its just math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1748162570543042818)  2024-01-19T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PaulSaladino7 @mineralstocks Where do you think production will be EOS October [----] And assuming prices stay at strip today (2s through October)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1748829927993196632)  2024-01-20T22:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mmm_btus @WTIBull $5 (+ or - $.50) is likely to be the marginal cost of production in HV depending on location. Meaning $6 will be the price necessary to increase HV productionas Tier [--] locations are run down. Below is a 10% IRR scenario. @TeddyGambino @tedcross #natgas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1748833244852936752)  2024-01-20T22:21Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements


"@NuggetCapital Are there any producers facing BK because unhedged + debt You know assuming prices stay low for the next 7-8 months. I can see $BIR doing another div cut. Theres room there. CAPEX guidance for [--] will be spicy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1749254538484404291)  2024-01-22T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CelsiusEnergyFM Wouldnt make any difference IMO. Market participants over-positioned long with this as the backdrop. Long liquidation occurring"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1749257036326662192)  2024-01-22T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@biancoresearch Jim a CNY devaluation would be a significant global deflationary event that would precipitate DM central bank easing (to combat imported deflation). I could make the assertion risk assets are currently pricing in this scenario. Thoughts @levenson_david"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1749635915298070846)  2024-01-23T03:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ctrlopenbracket @TeddyGambino @mmm_btus @WTIBull @tedcross IMO the peak number late last year was a seasonal dynamic were tracking where subsiding line pressure (as the temps cooled) enabled better flow out of existing wells. tl:dr it was more of a weather-related dynamic vs more frac spreads. Itll be interesting to see prod EOS (Apr)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1749893196996546774)  2024-01-23T20:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TeddyGambino @SStapczynski This would be a good topic for an article. If confirmed one would expect buyers to migrate to available capacity in these [--] projects. Thus increasing their value. Can you confirm if these projects are able to proceed @ira_joseph @SusanSakmar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1751004727389897122)  2024-01-26T22:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@brimsNYC_ @USMNTTAKES A [--] year old attacker with a start (and a goal) in the Bundesliga Impressive. Hes on a nice trajectory. Left-footed is a bonus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1751380975094002045)  2024-01-27T23:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PaulSaladino7 Paul How do you explain this contradiction Weve had much bigger deficits than the one in summer [----] without price cracking $5. Those days are over unless more storage capacity is added"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1751609127959499040)  2024-01-28T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CCM_Brett I remember the IPO well. The central debate was whether to assign a luxury multiple to a car company or to assign a car company multiple to a car company. I remember it being quite contentious. In the fullness of time we can see how it resolved. Unlimited pricing power = luxury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1752485796433805665)  2024-01-31T00:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@concodanomics Does your quant even speak English"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1753882036048134615)  2024-02-03T20:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Gugo907 @sloe_hand Buybacks do work when theres material net share reductions (and when acquisitions are accretive to earnings per share). I think of a buyback as a highest and best use of capital situation where shares are so cheap a company cant find a better alternative to invest its capital"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1754937295831236839)  2024-02-06T18:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PaulSaladino7 Can you explain again why the EIA DUC data is wrong Or is it correct They say [---] DUCs in the HV. Is that number correct Thanks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1757122749620015241)  2024-02-12T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bob_morocco @ChuckMe92Soccer Easily Gomez is only [--] year older than Caleb and hes already in Europe and working his way up. The one I like as Jedis primary backup is Nathaniel Brown at Nuremberg/Frankfurt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1757401382775292117)  2024-02-13T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JosefSchachter Geez. GL. Much more likely to go to $50 before $145. You must not know about Guyana Suriname Namibia Brazil Argentina. The world is awash in oil. So much so that the Saudis are desperately cutting production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1757959730675528111)  2024-02-15T02:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AndreasSteno CPI ex shelter has been below 2% for months. Inflation may reaccelerate but I dont think so. China is a trainwreck and Europe IPs are too. Could be wrong of course"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758329136135970886)  2024-02-16T03:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@UnicusResearch The market is one big momentum factor trade. Anyone who doesnt understand factors should not short (this or any other positive momentum stock). When $COIN breaks the 200d ok back up the truck"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758357903885681109)  2024-02-16T05:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@USAEnergyNatGas Does anyone have a link to a white paper or consulting report on this topic Ive seen @elonmusk refer to it as well. Is the bottleneck generating capacity or transmission capacity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758516172872696151)  2024-02-16T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@robin_j_brooks Robin what would it take for Argentina to become an export powerhouse like Brazil has become Can they imitate Brazilian success What would it take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1758540864547414282)  2024-02-16T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@macrocredit Alberto I would add that HHs with savings are benefiting from higher ST rates with interest income (MMFs) interest expense particularly for those who termed out debt during ZIRP. So its the opposite of what textbooks said about higher ST rates and the economy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758555411886801323)  2024-02-16T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AllthingsLNG I lived in Beijing and Id think middle class denizens would demand cleaner air even if it meant the government had to subsidize more expensive (but cleaner) electricity. Coal is awful. The Party has a mandate to deliver improving living conditions to the people @HeYiyong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758880681093214325)  2024-02-17T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DrJStrategy Youve been putting out excellent content. The January CPI and PPI were seasonally strong not stand-alone strong. PCE will be too. Then well return to disinflationary readings at least until summer when base effects might start working the other direction. Meanwhile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758882297271763162)  2024-02-17T15:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HeYiyong @aeberman12 Wouldnt net intermittency be a larger swing factor as non dispatch-able sources become a larger percentage of the whole That seems intuitive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758892168109023601)  2024-02-17T16:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ManagerTactical Bring all three. Haji is the 3rd winger after Puli and Weah. Tillman and Gio can play out wide. Lots of versatility in that attacking 8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758908829922947562)  2024-02-17T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GringoInvesting They may not I dont know. This chart may even out. But the current path likely isnt sustainable. It really depends on whether the Saudis keep cutting production to sustain price which is a function of many inputs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1758918531486449758)  2024-02-17T18:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TeddyGambino Or you want to see the Fed cutting rates (market pricing this in) while the Federal government runs war time deficits to GDP (Plus growth low unemployment.) Also US equities attracting global flows because well ROW (China Europe) way worse off. JG has been too perma-bearish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1759355148735025662)  2024-02-18T23:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@seb_kennedy Can you imagine being middle/upper middle class and well-educated in Beijing or Shanghai and wanting to raise children With that pollution No way. Id be doing everything possible to get a passport in Canada the US basically anywhere but polluted China. Coal dust is so gross"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1759774997705629964)  2024-02-20T03:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TomH_Analyst Complete and utter domination of PV solar according to Tom. Ok"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1759814357297598630)  2024-02-20T05:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@levenson_david Risk assets (multiples) are anticipating significant NT monetary easing: tapering QT as ON RRP declines and/or FF cuts. Also theres a dot com [---] narrative (AI) that may cause multiples to go from merely expensive to bubble territory. And its an election year Watch out above"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1761036037147783227)  2024-02-23T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@lleopard11 @RichardMeyerDC 📈"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1763742079845552430)  2024-03-02T01:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Turberville Hes penalized by some US fans because he struggled for minutes at Barca and AC Milan. In his early 20s Its insane. Now at [--] hes been incredible for the best team in the Eredivisie. Hes a talent. He just jumped up too high too young. Hes ready now. #PSV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1763746063872352423)  2024-03-02T02:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@FrancescoLupp11 @robin_j_brooks The mandate was already de facto changed. ECB now finances fiscal deficits AND polices yield differentials on behalf of spendthrifts. Not that the Fed is any different lol 😏"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1764873998851289408)  2024-03-05T04:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@donnelly_brent Wealth effects are a primary channel through which the Fed transmits its anti-deflationary efforts. Yes thats right they say they fight inflation but in fact their policies are intended to promote inflation (and by definition avoid debt deflation). W/out the Fed deflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1764876228962730358)  2024-03-05T04:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@FrancescoLupp11 @robin_j_brooks The Treaty of Lisbon included an article aimed at precluding reckless budget behavior in the Eurozone. Article [---] precluded the ECB from direct government deficit financing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1764888524774576535)  2024-03-05T05:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@brickviews1 @Amena__Bakr Theres a ton of new supply coming from offshore Guyana Suriname Namibia Brazil Argentina among others. Yes US shale has been the dominant percentage of non-OPEC supply growth. But other sources will ramp between now and 2030"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1769845914510766472)  2024-03-18T21:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@profplum99 US economy is increasingly oligopolistic + leading US corporations are very dominant ex-US + proliferation of global tax arbitrage strategies = AT corp profits growth US GDP growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1773556934819328283)  2024-03-29T03:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@psyopcapital While not strictly a duopoly $MCO and $SPGI are effectively a state-protected duopoly. The ratings agencies dont always compete as issuers often hire both to lower effective borrowing costs Regulators are loathe to reduce their role b/c they reduce friction in the marketplace"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1774149493027647725)  2024-03-30T18:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@AndreasSteno Inflation Reduction Act IIJA (Jobs Act) CHIPS Act on-shoring manufacturing new LNG plants record highs in both oil and gas production new pipelines near record high multi family units under construction. Long list of drivers. Gross fixed capital formation is on fire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1774527167868895239)  2024-03-31T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TrungTPhan Hung out with Steve at a pre-party/party for Murakami in Basel Switzerland. During US market hours. He was very relaxed not looking at prices. Very chill easy to talk to enjoying himself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1776084574067388576)  2024-04-05T03:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChuckMe92Soccer Haji is our 3rd best Winger and might even be best paired with Puli as starters bring Timo in as fresh legs. Trusty should be backup LB (and LCB) then bring an extra MF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1776637708942684569)  2024-04-06T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@r_walk7 @Lars57360069 @EnergyCynic Crude can get a lot cheaper than $70 if the Saudis decide to flood the market. Global price is determined by the marginal supplier not the marginal cost of US supply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1776681786606526681)  2024-04-06T18:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GritGrowthCap @buccocapital He isnt referencing carried interest but rather the tax deductibility of interest expense which benefits levered owners of assets (i.e. traditional private equity/control investing). Venture isnt a levered asset class (typically)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1776751971099111448)  2024-04-06T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@markfny I must have missed it whats the concise fund thesis What assets are you targeting Private equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1778815258314080386)  2024-04-12T15:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KuittinenPetri @vtchakarova The stability and liquidity provided by the USD-based global trading system (as well as the US Navy protecting global seaborne trade) has benefited developing economies including Chinas. Vast development in Asia and LatAm is proof. Far more pros than cons for most dev nations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1784223619473936538)  2024-04-27T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HeYiyong @ira_joseph No incremental domestic gas demand will make US gas more expensive domestically. The price of LNG globally will simply be the intersection of supply and demand (adjusted for shipping costs)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1785522727958536643)  2024-05-01T04:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ronnie2204 @Alex13901873 @MichaelAArouet Yes US indices are dominated by high growth global technology companies like Microsoft Google and Nvidia whereas European indices are dominated by industrials and materials and mining companies which command relatively lower multiples. Composition of leadership very different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1785654748701684190)  2024-05-01T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@barryknapp Shrinking the balance sheet tightens financial conditions by withdrawing liquidity (reducing money supply). So less QT is ipso facto loosening compared to previous condition. Whats really easier though is that they did it preemptively (before RRP hit zero)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1785880461547610382)  2024-05-02T03:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ChuckMe92Soccer Haji should start on the left Pulisic on the right. Weah to RB. McKennie and Musah double pivot and Gio at the [--]. I cant imagine Haji not selected for the squad easy choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1786758710830006618)  2024-05-04T14:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BichonRedux Old media/content companies are deeply imperiled. Trying to out-Netflix $NFLX (disruptor) was an epic disaster and their legacy business (the traditional media business of monetizing windows) is dying on the vine. Just a slow death walk. Not unlike (most) newspapers of yesteryear"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1786987740338573728)  2024-05-05T05:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockSavvyShay $CELH Gen Z/healthy energy drink that is a perpetual share gainer vs share donor $MNST. And vs coffee especially expensive coffee ($SBUX). Preferred due no calorie + active lifestyle/weight loss. Exceptional white space for international expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1786996283515056188)  2024-05-05T05:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SamanthaLaDuc My view is the Fed effectively has one mandate and its neither of the stated ones. Its to avoid (at all costs) a Fisherian debt-deflation scenario which is a downward spiral in prices wages and asset values. Essentially a self-reinforcing cycle of deflationary pressures"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1787005168875385285)  2024-05-05T06:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ZmansEnrgyBrain I can understand why associated gas might be flat given potential pipeline constraints but that shows declines (with WTI at reasonably high prices). Anyone have a theory why Permian gas is down Will Matterhorn automatically take this number back up this Fall @tedcross #natgas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1787458246577639773)  2024-05-06T12:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@UrbanKaoboy @Rory_Johnston @BurggrabenH Its the same dynamic thats driving independent power producers like $VST (perceived beneficiaries of incremental power demand growth from AI/ML boom). Narrative driving flows; fundamentals not so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1788937137729200519)  2024-05-10T14:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@clawrence @NoahRettberg @clawrence Wind was negative growth last year along with coal. Natural gas and solar both grew YoY. Of course solar is only 4% of total powergen while gas is 43% nearly 11x the share of solar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1791303484358426679)  2024-05-17T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Shane_Wray @BickerinBrattle Correct velocity is an endogenous variable. V = PQ/M is V (velocity of money) while P (price level) Q (output/GDP) and M (money supply) are exogenous variables. From the day it started QE created inflation in asset markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1792237362661187932)  2024-05-19T16:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StephenPercy9 @TrungTPhan Initially $NFLX wanted people to share. Why Streaming was new and it was a way for more people to sample the product and develop a strong affinity. Also sharing w/ family/friends created extra value for the payer The plan was always to turn non-payers into payers (eventually)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1792390708826882476)  2024-05-20T03:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@the_chart_life $GS has long been my best tell for whether there are lurking problems in the financial system/global appetite for risk. If its making highs theres nothing systemic lurking. People love the name but its just a levered and undifferentiated services provider in global finance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1792392463400980561)  2024-05-20T03:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CallmeFIFTY_92 @LeonSimons8 @ECMWF @CopernicusECMWF @OceanTerra @MercatorOcean @NOAA @noaaocean @DrJamesEHansen Correct. The Hunga Tonga eruption was a significant climatic event (albeit a temporary one) and very few are even aware of it or the climate effects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1795155106276462725)  2024-05-27T18:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CCM_Brett $META uses $NVDA GPUs to optimize their business model. How If META can get [--] mins/day more engagement from a user thats more ads. Then extrapolate to the entire global user base. Now optimize ad targeting higher conversion = charge higher prices. $3b total is way too low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1797182301421584743)  2024-06-02T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Some talk about global LNG oversupply and point to coming gross additions. But current liquefaction capacity is roughly [---] MTPA going to [---] MTPA in late 2020s (gross adds higher than [---] but many existing/aging projects will decline in coming years). #LNG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1798349957579346228)  2024-06-05T13:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RenMacLLC Nothing more fun than shorting a descending triangle pattern. Especially one with no takeout risk. Looks almost certain to break lower. $INTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1800353432903315508)  2024-06-11T02:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@HeYiyong @luo_yuehan Which mainland Chinese companies are globally successful in the same way that GOOG MSFT NVDA KO NKE SBUX MCD DE and NFLX are Is it possible the creativity-led pedagogical system in the US is a major driver of successful innovation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1800365642807468166)  2024-06-11T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JohnArnoldFndtn Great post. You can also add project finance costs which have gone up w/ interest rates. Major input. Also hurdle rate is higher today with the risk free rate at 4.2% (10y); so sponsors need high enough rates in the PPA to allow them to achieve a market IRR (after tax breaks)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1801632161315099070)  2024-06-14T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@cycle_strategy Whats your long thesis for $SBSW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1804534610061295946)  2024-06-22T15:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChuckMe92Soccer Who would you say are our best center half prospects Grayson Dettoni Drew Murray Matai Akinmboni Noahkai Banks Meiser Hamouda Ethan Degny Neil Pierre. Wynder too. Missing anyone Which 2-3 have the highest ceilings in your opinion Will Matai go to Europe this winter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1804558369245827260)  2024-06-22T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap Ive said this for a decade. No actor has exacerbated wealth inequality like the Fed. Loose monetary policy has massively benefited owners of real assets while the working poor have been crushed by chronically understated inflation including the use of hedonic adjustments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1804629440028389649)  2024-06-22T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Khalid_AM72 @anasalhajji KSA as the low cost producer already decides the global price of crude. They can simply flex exports up or down to adjust supply and thus prices. More export capacity wouldnt change that role. At the end of the day the price of crude is a Saudi political decision"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1804696707243889048)  2024-06-23T02:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Big_Orrin [--] BOE of nat gas is roughly $16.2 ($2.8 Mmbtu x [---] = $16.2). At $80 a bbl of oil is 5x natural gas on an energy equivalent basis. The price relationship between oil and gas would need to (significantly) invert for the extraction decision to be driven by the price of #natgas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1804760225502970161)  2024-06-23T06:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PaulSaladino7 Paul why would Matterhorn not fill or mostly fillin the say 6-8 months following commissioning What are the possible reasons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1806366467094356425)  2024-06-27T16:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@cycle_strategy If this were to break down technically in any way and I mean in any way at all there would be a ton of trapped longs due to generalist owners who are there because Buffett likes it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1806494289431761070)  2024-06-28T01:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@marcelolima Affordable yet high-quality Chinese EVs are set to surge in non-OECD countries like Brazil Mexico Thailand and Bulgaria ultimately affecting global crude demand growth #EVs #China #oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1807563060128924016)  2024-06-30T23:53Z [----] followers, 26.3K engagements


"@NuggetCapital Guyana Suriname Namibia Cote d'Ivoire Brazil Uruguay and Argentina will add significant crude supply in the next [--] years. The world is awash in crude oil #CrudeOil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1807577659712442382)  2024-07-01T00:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Andrea_Texas_82 @lisaabramowicz1 Rate cuts could lead to long-term rates rising potentially causing the yield curve to steepen (and maybe disinvert) as investors could demand a higher term premium. @BobEUnlimited"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1808957549611258232)  2024-07-04T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KyriakosTrading @calvinfroedge Whats the PGM bull thesis (not technicals please) $SBSW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1809004603083796900)  2024-07-04T23:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SynMaxData @BabyGotGas @PaulSaladino7 @NatGasCollector @PipelineFlows @tedcross Thank you. So I guess the DTILs and shut-ins from Feb/March have now been reversed And completions are running at the same levels as months ago (for the most part)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1809350692756422701)  2024-07-05T22:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@RGURRAM999 @BabyGotGas @PaulSaladino7 @NatGasCollector @SynMaxData @PipelineFlows @tedcross Good list. I guess what Im asking about is whats driving the very recent increase in output (given #1-3 (technology/efficiency) havent meaningfully improved in the last 1-2 months) What changed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1809428588149764193)  2024-07-06T03:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@levenson_david Its a possibility the Saudis flood if Trump wins but I dont think its assured. What makes you so certain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1809707906121757026)  2024-07-06T21:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@AllthingsLNG Argentina's deepwater Argentina Basin also has significant hydrocarbons potential analogous to Namibia. Both regions were part of Pangaea during the Jurassic era suggesting offshore Argentina (and Uruguay) could yield prolific oil reserves similar to Namibia. #Argentina #EFT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1810042549496844406)  2024-07-07T20:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BlacklionCTA @GasBuddyGuy Habits change. People dont drive as much as they once did. Some teenagers delay/forgo drivers licenses. Work from home is a major change. Online shopping means less driving to retail stores. Uber/ridesharing reduces miles driven. US gasoline demand has peaked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1813778075639054790)  2024-07-18T03:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Ronh999 @ZmansEnrgyBrain Thank you @Ronh999 Using your data powergen is +5.1% YTD (stunning) and +2.3% over [--] years (2023 was a negative growth year). NG demand in power is +6.0% YTD +15.7% 2-year stack and +22.2% 3-year stack. This implies gas continues to gain (significant) share. #renewables #natgas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1814324983017181583)  2024-07-19T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZmansEnrgyBrain [--] Bcf/d decline so far. Its going to require significant incremental activity to get back to the highs. And even more to get to +9 overall (which is more like +11 now) per this Q1 slide from $KMI. Thoughts on almost doubling production in HV @novilabs @NGLFundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1814426416454480281)  2024-07-19T22:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@donnelly_brent I agree w/ him that the macro backdrop remains robust. I disagree with Torsten on rate cuts which I think are absolutely coming. Why Because real rates are high and rising and the Fed doesnt want to risk outright #deflation. Also the Fed has a loose bias. He thinks no cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1814814331407904797)  2024-07-21T00:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pickeringenergy Impossible to trade political events. Greek debt crisis in 2011-12 was up and down based on comments from random German ministers. Brexit Trump Cyprus China tariffs all created vol. End of the day its direction of earnings and CB liquidity not necessarily in that order lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1815208385383727241)  2024-07-22T02:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@pickeringenergy No investor has edge on political events. The Greek debt crisis in 2011-12 markets swung on comments from random German ministers. Brexit/Cyprus/China tariffs created ST vol but thats it The direction of earnings and CB liquidity matter most not necessarily in that order lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1815423463873716678)  2024-07-22T16:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@PeterBerezinBCA IMO unless theres a significant correction in asset markets (especially equities and home prices) wealth effects + fiscal stimulus will drive continued economic growth (not contraction). Consumer-led economy. I struggle to see how lower FF could cause lower asset prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1815890820903625090)  2024-07-23T23:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@RadnorCapital IMO 80% of the recent move lower is explainable by two things 1) JPY strength (i.e. carry trade unwind) and 2) market is pricing out a Trump victory in November. They could be 70% or 90% not certain. But these are major drivers of recent moves IMO not economic weakness per se"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1819510906855784924)  2024-08-02T23:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@3PeaksTrading JPY vs Nasdaq 100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1819588303441535151)  2024-08-03T04:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap Ive posted this elsewhere but I believe the vast majority of the recent moves is explainable by two factors that have nothing to do with a slowing economy 1) strengthening JPY (carry trade unwind) and 2) declining odds for Trump in November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1819758399405293863)  2024-08-03T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@rev_cap 100% agree. The market is pricing in a recession is lazy analysis. First SPX hasnt violated any key levels despite heavy bullish positioning and illiquid August. More importantly most of the down move can be explained by stronger Japanese Yen and sharp decline in Trump odds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1820127697978491081)  2024-08-04T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TeddyGambino I normally agree w/ you Ted but this tech cycle is very different than the 1999-00 cycle. Momentum factor reverse correlated w/ quality factors such as profitability and FCF yield in [--]. This cycle momentum and quality factors have been positively correlated. @JaredKubin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1820139255718637639)  2024-08-04T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@WarrenPies In 1997-98 there were multiple concomitant currency crises incl Korea Malaysia. Peak-to-trough 25% SPX drawdown due to exogenous (to the US) shocks. In response Fed cut rates 3x in late [--] and set off the dot com boom in [--]. Will the Fed repeat this policy error I think so"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1822340519382430056)  2024-08-10T18:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@clawrence @johnson_wrjohn1 Youre both agreeing the same thing: utility-scale battery deployment will affect thermal power generation sources. The key difference is how we define "long time": Is a period of 10-20 years considered long I actually think its fewer than [--]. #renewables"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1824798289809621040)  2024-08-17T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@brett_eth In late [----] in response to exogenous shocks caused by tightening/USD the Fed cut 3x and set off the [----] mega-boom in US equity markets. Any narrative that Fed cuts are always a sell-the-news event is disingenuous IMO. Personally I think [----] is the best historical analogue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1828394279414243443)  2024-08-27T11:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@3PeaksTrading @slamcandie 100%. This latest Yen margin call was exactly the same as the Thai Baht/Malaysian Ringgit chaos especially inasmuch as the Fed will cut rates just as they did in [----] which super-charged the dot-com blowoff top. Now replace dot-com with AI. All the pieces are in place IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1828583841344430303)  2024-08-28T00:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NuggetCapital Guyana Suriname Namibia Brazil Argentina Uruguay all ramping output in coming years. People who think crude production growth begins and ends with US shale are in for a rude surprise. #OOTT #EFT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1830288256233242748)  2024-09-01T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited Bob that FRED chart really needs to include indirect changes to HH wealth from other sources including direct ownership of equities/options 401ks home equity. Thats an impactful driver of overall consumption. Net HH wealth grows with each $SPX ATH"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1830323316776927689)  2024-09-01T19:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BurggrabenH @OKalleklev Well thats just a function of high European gas inventories out of a warm winter. i.e. its a storage issue. One very cold winter and that minus sign will flip positive #LNG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1830326585578467671)  2024-09-01T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap @BobEUnlimited Absolutely And this is the exact point I made to @BobEUnlimited: Any analysis of income and savings must include the wealth effects from rising equities/401ks and housing Px on HH net wealth (and consumption). Upper quintiles massively benefiting from higher asset prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1830667438184374642)  2024-09-02T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetTraveller Whats your $KEL thesis Adam Thx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1831060585066447305)  2024-09-03T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@JamieHeard5 International demand for gas is massive. Any decrease in prices (e.g. more supply) will be met with an avalanche of incremental demand. Demand isnt unlimited (it never is) and theres always the issue of downstream infrastructure capacity including re-gas and local storage. #LNG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1831078403988226540)  2024-09-03T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@calvinfroedge Never ever buy a stock with a chart like this one in a positive year overalluntil tax loss selling season. $SBSW (like $INTC) will be a prime candidate for tax loss harvesting in Q4. Just saying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1831199786382287135)  2024-09-04T05:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@416Bread @GoldForecast $0.00 lol. Lots of debt here. Commodity producers BK all the time. $SBSW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1831201256876163274)  2024-09-04T05:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@aaronshem @curryja Aaron are you tracking parallels between the winters of 1877-78 and 1878-79 to last winter and the upcoming winter (2024-25) I have a theory about water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1831910684361363667)  2024-09-06T04:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Reignots @patientinvestt Thats my theory on $OXY way too many tourists who bought it because Buffett likes it and now theyre future capitulatory sellers. When these tourists get washed then its a buy. #EFT #UncleWarren"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1831918348122366228)  2024-09-06T04:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rev_cap @Solwoldjr74 Fed monetary policy solves for a) bank solvency and b) increasing asset values (read: make the wealthy wealthier). Not necessarily in that order. Judged on those metrics alone the Fed are doing a bang up job. Inflation and employment are only putative policy concerns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1832521039781491149)  2024-09-07T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@USAEnergyNatGas Eventually is the operative word Bill. I think itll take awhile before that pipe fills completely if at all. At $60 oil (well see where crude Px goes) its not going to fill. Theres not that much associated gas today waiting for egress. #natgas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1833275424291623189)  2024-09-09T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Josh_Young_1 Cant imagine a sector more imperiled than US OFS. Theyre in the crosshairs of both price and volume. #EFT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/geoffreykarren/status/1833647190784544808)  2024-09-10T23:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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